Bad Days: Why It’s Okay to Wallow In your Pain (For A Short Time) Before You Face the Future
I admit these last few days have been really painful. And very different from in 2020. I’ve watched the Russian kleptocrat & soon to be war criminal Putin bully and launch an armed invasion of their neighbor & cousin Ukraine. A democracy of 44 million people btw and a place just starting to bloom culturally and economically. Now Ukraine is facing an unwarranted attack from the substantially larger Russian military power ( a country of 144M people) where Ukrainian cities are being shelled & innocent people terrified for their lives.This during the 21st civilized century where we are supposed to know better. All while the West condemns them with somewhat tepid sanctions but very little else. As someone with extensive personal and business ties to both Russia and Ukraine, it’s incredibly distressing watching friends and business partners pulled into a war they don’t want. I spent most of the evening trying to reach friends in Ukraine to make sure they were okay. And answering texts and emails from teams I work with. They are all scared for their families but stoic and doing what they can. Ukrainians are tough and brave people.
I am struck with sadness, shock and anger that this is happening. I feel completely helpless in face of this unfolding tragedy and crime against civilization and law. I am having issues processing all of this. I admit it put me into a very dark place. And this is due to so many harsh realizations:
The Era of Pax Americana that started in 1945 is Over: The USA despite all its resources is just tired after wasting 20 years, trillions of dollars in 2 useless conflicts in Iraq & Afghanistan. Now with a worn out populace, divided and full of venal ineffective politicians as well as a real 5th Column of Putin supporters like Tucker Carlson and some of the GOP & Left undermining a possible coherent approach to the crisis. This comment by Alexander Corte’s quote describes the USA right now well.“To be both an unreliable friend and an incompetent enemy ensures you will never be taken seriously by anyone.”
Consequently we will see a major ramp up in arms and defense spending as every country knows they can’t rely too much on allies like the USA or EU anymore (and China and Russia as well). Based on the track record of these regional powers' support, all the allied small countries will arm up. Taiwan, Poland, the Baltics, all need to become well armed spikey porcupines who will make any invader bleed badly just like our Ukrainian friends are doing. Or be swallowed up by local regional powers.
2. The Western Liberal Order is broken: For the so-called “Mother of All Sanctions” energy is being excluded because of foolish energy policy in the Europe that they are reliant on Russian natural gas and then on top of that, any idea of kicking Russia out of SWIFT system has been blocked by Putin shills like Hungary, Cyprus, Italy and GERMANY.
3. Despite widespread political and popular condemnation across the world, not much else is being done. Ukraine is left to defend herself & showing you really don’t have true allies, you just only have temporary mutual interests in this new world.
4. This is the first major land war on European soil in 30 years (last one was in 1992 in Bosnia). A major European capital city is being bombed and attacked by hostile army. It’s the 21st century and we have a major land war and one initiated by a big world power and autocracy on a smaller democracy to boot.
5. And even more sadly, this invasion is against the will of the Russian people. Despite the bravery of many protests in Russia itself against this war, the protestors are all being jailed. Most of the Russians I know want nothing to do with invading Ukraine, who they consider very close cousins. It’s like the US invading Canada today. Putting aside the geopolitical frame, It literally makes no sense to my small brain.
As per Peter Zeihan, the years of 1945 to 2020 were an anomaly in history where the US driven Global World order led to the prosperous & relatively peaceful years we were fortunate to get. Billions of people were lifted out of poverty and very few countries went to zero. But the Pandemic and its crap overall government response and now the Russian aggression in Ukraine points to us entering a multipolar world. We are entering this scary new world where "the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" as per Thucydides. Or as Noah Smith put it even more clearly. “The law of the jungle has returned, and the strong will dominate the weak if they see fit.”
This is going to be an ugly & brutal world. And all these shocks have turned into another Global Wake Up Call for me and everyone. The question is whether people will heed it. It’s time to take Personal Responsibility! And in a new world where the strong feast on the weak, it’s time to get strong both mentally and physically! This will be relevant for individuals and countries. In my mind, no one will be able to rely on first responders, you have to be your own first responder. It certainly sucks but that’s what we saw even back in 2020 with the BLM protests that turned into riots.
I ended up spending most of this Thursday in a dazed state. I ranged from crying from sadness to intense rage at Putin and his mafia government. Basically, I wallowed in the worry, pain & fear I felt for all my friends there.You have to grieve for the old world and the old “you” that’s disappeared. And I think you are allowed to do this for a short period of time. Especially for someone like me who is kind of slow. I find I need some time to really absorb and process both the painful realizations and the emotions that come with it. But once you do that, you have to go take some action, even if it's the little small things to get you back on track and out of the funk.
So I went to Church to pray for peace in Ukraine and for the safety of my many friends and colleagues. I spent time posting messages of support for Ukraine on social media (as trite as these are). I also ended up donating money to some charities doing some real good in Ukraine like Mercy Corp https://www.mercycorps.org, Nova Ukraine: https://novaukraine.org & The Return Alive Foundation: https://savelife.in.ua/en/donate.
Little steps lead to big steps on the way out.
Let’s hope Sanity and Peace Prevail. Slava Ukraini! Glory to Ukraine!