Building Your Financial BarBell: Personal Finance Lessons & a Portfolio Review
I’ve long stressed health but also wealth. Money matters. Money matters because freedom is expensive. There is a term called FIRE, which stands for Financially Independent Retire Early. I prefer FIWOOT which can be attributed to Michael Karnjanaprakorn. Financial Independence but Work On Own Terms.
Keep your job if you like it. Or quit and take a few years off. Or take a half year sabbatical. Or start your own business, which is easier than ever with all the AI tools out there. The point is to live the life you want or as the Sartorial Shooter calls it “your own custom made reality.”
Money is a valuable tool to take care of loved ones and help others. It’s a tool to support causes that matter to you. It’s not just about material things although I certainly do enjoy them. It’s also about having resources to have good and fun experiences.
So note: this is not investing advice & please do your own due diligence but I want to share with folks what I’m doing right now. Some hard earned financial lessons.
Reiterating some basics:
–Spend less than you earn and really watch the hedonistic treadmill. DO NOT keep up with the Jones as they say. Manage your cost structure tightly.
–Saving is important but put more focus on increasing your income
–Having multiple sources of income is a must
–Have at least 12 months of expenses in cash or liquid equivalents
–Optimize for getting equity in great businesses, as many as possible
So assuming you do these things it already puts you ahead of 95% of the populace. Now the fun part (at least to me). Investing and managing any money and building wealth.
I should note before we start that my investing timeline tends to be long. Most preseed and seed stage startups take 10-15 years before any exit. Same with the Venture capital funds. And my public stocks and crypto I usually invest on a long term horizon. Ie. never less than 5 years. I’m not wired well to do stock trading.
I’m a firm believer in the barbell. As I have written before, my biggest mistake was not understanding illiquid versus liquid assets. Up until 2020 I was overweight on Illiquid stuff: real estate & VC funds/startup equity. Now I think about the barbell of illiquid and liquid assets and how these need to be counterbalanced. It’s almost a 4 part dumbbell like a 2 X 2 grid. Liquid assets versus Illiquid assets. Risky but high potential versus less risky & safer.
So the components. On the illiquid but less risky side: I have real estate, usually some income generating stuff.
On the illiquid but super risky: I have LP checks in emerging vc funds, lots of equity stakes in various tech startups. Probably still VERY overweight here if I am honest.
On the Liquid but risky: Crypto, yes ETH & BTC should be in everyone’s portfolio (will say 3-5% at least of your portfolio). I also have a bundle of tech stocks like Microstrategy which is basically a play BTC as they are so levered up in their treasury. I also own way too many public tech stocks like NVDA, TSMC, MSFT, SMH etc.
On the liquid but less risky: I’m a fan of dividend generating stocks like PBR.A, XOM, CCJ, MOS, CF, BTU, MP, URNM as well as other commodity, natural resources and energy public companies. I also have the general Vanguard ETFs which track the stock market at large.
The whole point is to think of these in the form of a balanced portfolio. Not quite Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio which is a portfolio split between 25% Stocks, 25% bonds, 25% cash, 25% gold but it’s my version of it. Everyone needs to figure out their own allocation.
It’s also a reflection of the life I am enjoying. I work as much as I want and whenever I want. I get to do lots of reading and studying up on startups, sales/marketing/operating, geopolitical & technology trends.
All of this informs my investing with the market telling me if I am right or wrong.
I’ll do this for the rest of my life as I think it keeps your mind sharp. And it’s some of the most fun and financially rewarding things one can do. The sooner you start this process the better off you will be.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads January 19th, 2025
“No matter how hard the past is, you can always begin again”--Buddha
"At that stage of our careers and entrepreneurial journeys, maintaining a standing daily check-in proved invaluable. It allowed us to meet, share our experiences, and grow together as a group. Entrepreneurs should find a peer group and look for ways to grow faster with activities like a daily check-in."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/12/14/daily-check-in-amongst-entrepreneurs/
2. Creator economy is back. It's evolving fast too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F54fcJFz_7M&t=163s
3. Describing the vibe shift in Silicon Valley and the USA at large. An Insight dense conversation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gn9YZP_Zm50&t=251s
4. "Yes, everything is aligning. You may call it industrial policy, friendshoring, or de-risking. It adds up to the same thing: state-directed investment. Again, read the Macron speech. He says if we don’t learn to build stuff again, Europe can die. Of course, he’s prone to overdramatic statements, but he didn’t say Europe is a bit ill. He said Europe can die.
This is a question of life and death. Building military equipment is life and death stuff. It has become an issue of national survival to invest. Governments all over the world find the need to direct investments to purposes they want to achieve."
5. "How truly democratic today’s democracies are has become an open question. Negative answers trouble the political life of many nations. Everywhere the traditional parties, creatures of a decaying consensus, are in the grip of disintegration. They are being replaced by sectarian war bands that challenge the very legitimacy of the system. The public has a vague notion of what it is for but knows with terrible clarity what it stands against. A spirit of negation has inspired massive street uprisings in the style of France’s Yellow Vests and Black Lives Matter here at home, as well as the election of unorthodox populists like Donald Trump.
I analyzed the causes of this upheaval in my 2014 book, “The Revolt of the Public.” In brief, I argued that institutional elites have failed to adapt to the vast flows of information of the digital age. They reside at the top of great hierarchies that tower uneasily over a flattened socioeconomic landscape—and they want nothing to change. They crave the eternal preservation of the 20th-century regime, in which they wielded unquestioned authority and had the power to conceal their dirty secrets. In pursuit of this ideal—fondly labeled “our democracy”—they have grown ever more reactionary and antidemocratic over the decades.
In Britain and Brazil today, you can land in jail for voicing antiestablishment opinions on social media. Here in the U.S., the Biden administration erected a censorship apparatus to mute online dissidence—and, we recently learned, “debanked,” or cast out of the financial system without right of appeal, those engaged in disfavored operations such as cryptocurrency.
The Revolt Gains Legitimacy
With the triumphant second coming of Trump, the revolt of the public has entered a new phase. The cordon sanitaire that isolated the president-elect from all respectable political and cultural gatekeepers has tumbled like the walls of Jericho. Yesterday, he was Hitler—opposing him was a moral imperative. Today, having risen out of the depths of disgrace, he heads a movement that contains much of the energy and excitement to be found in this country."
https://www.discoursemagazine.com/p/revolt-of-the-public-10-years-on
6. "The only way the US can regain some defense industrial base competitive advantage is to partner with free world countries that have the manufacturing expertise and cost structure to compete with China. That is a very short list: Ukraine and Mexico. And Mexico doesn’t have much of a defense industry.
In the free world, Ukraine is the low cost producer of defense tech and defense production. It was the defense industrial base of the USSR. Handing this over to Putin would be a strategic mistake of epic proportions.
Not to mention the free world’s largest and only battle proven military. Losing that to Russia seems…unwise.
And then there are the minerals. According to a Washington Post article yesterday, Ukraine sits on $25 tr of critical minerals. 27 of them. 22 of them which the US sources from Russia and China. For example, Ukraine has the world’s largest uranium deposits. Right now, the biggest source of uranium for the US power industry is Kazakhstan—mines owned by China and Russia.
Ukraine is rich in neodymium, which is used for most magnets. Including the magnets in almost every small drone motor used by the US military. Currently, China is the source of 90% of the world’s neodymium. Indeed, 40% of US weapons systems are dependent on Chinese components.
As China increasingly disengages with the West as it shifts from export-led growth to domestic demand-driven growth, its relative power grows while that of the US wanes.
Saving Ukraine is not only good for the Ukrainians; it is an investment in the strategic security of the US-led liberal world order."
https://theketchumsun.substack.com/p/issue-55-letter-from-kyiv
7. Good overview of Silicon Valley in 2024 and some good projections for 2025.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBlk3MdQPM4
8. "Memo to CEOs: This is the way to do it. Brands and logos and press releases do not resonate with us anymore. We are interested in your people — who they are, what they care about, and what they have to say — not your brand. The most overvalued firm in tech, Palantir, isn’t a tech company, but a CEO (Alex Karp) masking as a public company."
https://www.profgalloway.com/people-are-the-new-brands/
9. "Today, his default pace is 100 miles per hour. To take this random Thursday in August: A couple weeks ago, Johnson was in Japan, finishing shooting a drama called The Smashing Machine. Shortly after that, Johnson appeared at a Disney event to announce that he will soon star in a new film, called Monster Jam. This fall, two movies Johnson has already completed, Red One and Moana 2, will be released. And on Monday, he’ll go back to work, filming a new live-action version of Moana.
Johnson’s work in Hollywood and, lately, in business (tequila, skin care) have made him something not too far from a billionaire; he could retire tomorrow, or even today. But this level of activity is typical and has made Johnson unbelievably successful: Every morning he wakes up, busily performs the character of Dwayne Johnson, and the empire grows."
https://www.gq.com/story/dwayne-johnson-men-of-the-year-cover-2024
10. A great episode this week if you wanna know what's up with businesses at the edge of the internet. Crypto, AI, art and tech.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICn78rmjMno
11. A grand bit of tinfoil hat theories of global macro and geopolitical strategy. Sounds crazy but entertaining.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WvP9rAowyrA
12. Important discussion on geopolitical implications of Syrian turmoil. But this extends to the Russian invasion of Ukraine too, Turkey's new Ottoman Empire.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wixRrGeH3HY&t=30s
13. This was a worthwhile conversation with Jared Kushner. I learned so much on how to do negotiations well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EagrRPukYdc
14. "Looking ahead, Raj highlighted emerging trends that could redefine defence innovation. Synthetic biology, for instance, offers transformative potential in healthcare and national security. Meanwhile, advancements in energy, such as small nuclear reactors, could underpin future technological breakthroughs.
But the biggest challenge, Raj believes, is not innovation itself, but its adoption. “The Department of Defense doesn’t have an innovation problem; it has an innovation adoption problem,” he said, quoting former Deputy Secretary of Defense Bob Work. Bureaucratic inertia remains a barrier, but Raj remains optimistic, especially as Europe ramps up its efforts in defence and Ukraine becomes a proving ground for new technologies."
https://www.resiliencemedia.co/p/from-f-16s-to-venture-capital-raj
15. An insightful conversation on the future of war.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fg_zdFF4Y4A
16. "Now, New Founding has launched a venture capital fund to invest in what it calls “aligned companies,” startups that oppose progressive ideologies and are intent on both “cultural and economic disruption.” It’s one of a small but growing number of VCs vocally rejecting ‘wokeism’ and building their investment thesis on core conservative values.
New Founding’s investments are one tentpole of a broader goal: to remake society with a largely MAGA, tech-driven, Christian worldview. It decries leftists as “anti-human,” celebrates technology as a singular force that will define a new era of prosperity, loves crypto and sees the internet (“deeply American in ethos and design”) as a means to its ends. “Our project offers a powerful avenue,” a manifesto on its website published in July reads, “both to develop the class of people who can ultimately challenge the incumbent regime and to acquire the resources, territory, and institutions that will enable this effort.
New Founding CEO Nate Fischer told Forbes these investments are the beginnings of a “parallel economy” offering conservative versions of mainstream services it views as too liberal, like Google’s ad-tech products. “There's a large share of people who feel that their views are almost entirely absent from the institutions that are shaping the future,” Fischer explained. “And there's a real acute need and hunger for alternatives.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidjeans/2024/12/23/anti-woke-venture-capital-new-founding/
17. "Greenland is incredibly resource-rich, with rare earth mineral deposits valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars, and its geopolitical position is incredibly significant to American interests vis-a-vis our Great Power rivals. Should Greenland fall under the Chinese umbrella, it will have devastating national security implications for the United States.
President-elect Trump’s prioritization of Greenland for negotiation and future annexation is both righteous and strategically prudent. As the first major U.S. acquisition in well over a century, Greenland can serve to shape the president’s legacy in a manner akin to his favorite president: Andrew Jackson."
https://www.dossier.today/p/yes-america-should-absolutely-annex
18. "Now, new export controls on Chinese drone components announced by Beijing and coming into effect next year mean Taiwan is doubling down on its bet that drones become a central feature of modern warfare — and the island becomes a global hub to produce them.
Taiwan is already a critical technology hub, producing 95 percent of the world’s most advanced microchips. Its local drone industry is working to match Chinese manufacturing to help the United States and other Western allies reduce their reliance on China."
https://www.politico.eu/article/taiwan-eyes-war-drones-to-counter-china/
19. "Trump is no kumbaya peace-loving hippie; he fully believes in the military supremacy and exceptionalism of America and delights in slaughtering humans using said military might. Remember that in his first term, he assassinated Iranian General Qasem Soleimani on Iraqi soil to the delight of a large swath of America. Trump gave no fucks about violating Iraqi airspace and unilaterally deciding to murder a general of another country against whom America was not officially at war. As such, he wants to properly re-arm the empire so that its capabilities match the hype.
Trump advocates the re-industrialization of America to help those who want good manufacturing jobs and those who wish to possess a strong military. To do so requires reversing the imbalances built under the Petroyuan system. This will be accomplished by weakening the dollar, providing tax grants and subsidies to produce things domestically, and deregulation. All these things combined will make it economically prudent for companies to move production onshore because China is currently the best place to produce things due to the combination of three decades in the making of pro-growth policies.
To summarize, quickly and dramatically weakening the dollar is the first step towards Trump and Bessent achieving their economic goals. It is also something they can accomplish overnight without consulting domestic legislators or foreign finance ministry heads. Given that Trump has one year to show progress on some of his goals to help Republicans maintain their hold on the House and Senate, my base case is a $/gold devaluation in the first half of 2025."
https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/trump-truth
20. Maniac on a mission. Such a great conversation on what makes entrepreneurial success. Must watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_8KKY8fQdA
21. A true Renaissance man: hedge funder, professional musician, pilot, theologian. Fascinating life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSwszq1xFK0
22. Hard men here. French Foreign Legionnaires in the jungles of French Guiana.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfEGm1iNMcg
23. Situation in Syria: net net, it's gonna be a fragmented mess unless Turkey really asserts itself there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tV6Om9aIz2A
24. A masterclass on AI semiconductor chips. Really great conversation if you want to understand what’s happening with AI right now and implications for big tech (and small).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVcSBHhcFbg&t=2042s
25. "Ukrainian companies can produce nearly three times more weapons than the current Ukrainian budget can procure. The capacity of FPV drone producers already exceeds 4 million per year, while the state budget provides money to contract only slightly more than 1 million.
When the full-scale war began, Ukraine banned weapons exports to ensure all production went to its Armed Forces (AFU). As manufacturing capacity grew beyond military budget needs, a debate emerged about lifting the ban. Instead of resuming exports, Ukraine launched the Zbroyari project – a program where European countries could finance Ukrainian weapons production for the AFU. The message was clear: countries lacking manufacturing capacity could fund procurement from Ukrainian producers."
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/11/29/can-europe-fill-in-the-gap-if-trump-abandons-ukraine/
26. Our enemies should not be underestimated, especially with Russian military. They are learning and adapting & we should be too.
"Russian forces are attempting to breach Ukrainian defenses along the Donbas front, where the situation has become critical in some places. Their tactics have changed significantly from what was seen during the battles for Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Instead of launching large-scale attacks that turned into “meat grinders” with dozens of soldiers charging across open fields, they now send in smaller groups using motorcycles, civilian vehicles, and even electric scooters.
In his analysis, BBC Ukraine war reporter Abdujalil Abdurasulov notes that these small groups attack from multiple directions in succession. While many are eliminated, the sheer number of attempts means some groups eventually break through to reach Ukrainian positions. Despite heavy Russian losses, this approach lets them capture about one village per day.
This change in tactics was largely driven by the widespread use of drones on the battlefield. Modern surveillance and attack drones make it nearly impossible for large groups of soldiers to move without being detected and targeted, forcing Russians to adapt with smaller, more mobile units."
27. I always like listening to Justin Waller. One of the few super positive & credible examples for young men.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqAQsAC4GA8&t=925s
28. "My gift to you: How to make more money in 2025.
I’ve compiled a free list of ways to potentially make more money and get rich(er) in 2025."
https://shindy.substack.com/p/make-money
29. "But, there have also been moments where the crowd failed me. And every time this happened, the reason was the same—the crowd did not have sufficient expertise. They simply didn’t know enough about the topic at hand."
https://ofdollarsanddata.com/the-ignorance-of-the-crowd/
30. "The only way to fight back is to get average-IQ people to reject our all-too-human craving for certainty.
Internalize the notion that ANYONE strutting around telling you they’ve got a lock on The Truth is an emissary (probably an unwitting one) of an arch-criminal who has a vested interest in getting you (and millions like you with your biases and predilections) to behave in a particular way to the benefit of specific powerful forces."
https://kaichang.substack.com/p/zealots-of-certainty
31. "The Good News? On a final positive note, 2024 is still the greatest time to be alive. Crypto currency is solving a large chunk of these issues in real time. Intermediaries simply sit in the “flow of money” and that rent extraction is moving to digital currencies. Therefore, we don’t even care about the prior three steps! They were just there to tell you the real issue (wealth disparity *not* income disparity).
Instead of fighting all of these loopholes, remember that no one is coming to save you. Not your boss, your family or your country. Save yourself by playing the game correctly (“Don’t hate the player, hate the game")
The game is won by creating digital income (online income) and investing into high quality technology firms and crypto currencies in our opinion. This way your income can be moved to a more tax friendly state/country. This is what the wealthy are doing so you should do it too."
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/reminder-wealth-inequality-is-not
32. You can never get enough Justin Waller. Always a good, educational time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNeIk9RVUso&t=7s
33. Good global economic takes here on Xmas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqXDfTyLGu8
34. "Tesla is creating factories that are the product—designing, testing, and perfecting every element just as they do with their cars.
This focus on manufacturing efficiency, Lutz believes, will lead to a dramatic reduction in production costs, potentially bringing them closer to zero. And this shift in how products are built—rather than merely assembled—could set a new standard for the entire manufacturing world."
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/musk-led-manufacturing-revolution-nobody-talking-about
35. Worthwhile conversation on technology, defense-tech, geopolitics and growing influence of Silicon Valley across the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIKevZh97Tw
36. You can never get enough Justin Waller. He is the mentor I wish I had when I was younger.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4kPtEEsE6A
37. "This reveals something broader about how ecosystems like Silicon Valley work: They’re not just markets — they’re belief systems. Success comes not from playing by the rules, but from understanding why the rules exist and when to break them.
The tragedy isn’t that most founders struggle in Silicon Valley. It’s that they struggle believing they did everything right by the wrong playbook.
Because in Silicon Valley, you’re not just building a business.
You’re auditioning for a role in someone else’s vision of the future. Make sure it is yours."
38. "Certainly as geopolitical tensions continue to rise and the US gets closer to a potential conflict with a technologically sophisticated near-peer adversary, the DoD must continue to find ways to adopt innovative technologies that help warfighters. There is no doubt that in the coming years many startups will break through and land large DoD contracts to deliver essential technology. As such, I predict that there will be at least three new NatSec “unicorns” minted in 2025 – that is, at least three national security focused startups will raise fundraising rounds valuing them at $1B or more.
Although there’s much to be optimistic about for startups selling to national security in 2025, they will still face significant headwinds when entering the defense market. I predict that several NatSec startups will struggle to grow into their inflated valuations, finding it difficult to grow DoD revenue fast enough to secure another round of funding. As a result, I predict that in 2025 at least one high-profile NatSec startup will be forced to raise a “down round,” or accept a discounted acquisition, in order to stay afloat."
https://maggiegray.substack.com/p/2025-predictions-for-natsec-tech
39. "The Russians have no desire to go to war with NATO too, right now, but if they were looking at a low risk, high reward activities on the edge of war that is at least something, then this fits the bill. They will continue to do this until the risk/reward ratio goes negative. They have yet to meet resistance.
It’s amazing that the Russians took this long. These actions may not for now significantly impact the economies of those sending weapons to kill Russians, but they do humiliate the West by conducting sabotage without consequence…just impotent, sternly worded letters and toothless inspections.
My bet is that this will increase until it meets resistance and cost."
https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/cables-pipelines-and-consequences
The Path to Sovereignty is the Path to Freedom: Learning from Resavager
I care alot about freedom and personal sovereignty. I write a lot about independence and the importance of being financially independent so you can do whatever you want (without hurting others) and having resources to help your friends, family and greater community. To be able to put your weight against a cause or mission that is really important to you, and make a significant impact. Hopefully positive. Basically to be a person of consequence.
I love reading Resavager, despite the somewhat racist & white supremacist tone, he writes beautifully and this next passage on sovereignty is no different.
“There are many paths to sovereignty today. War, which is the purpose of the state, continues to grow more complex. The first suggestion is to seek power and skills through military service. There are many perks that will get you ahead of the mass in taking this route. Ignore the hysteria about joining the military if you want to make something of your life is my suggestion. The military opens doors that otherwise would be closed to you.
For others, maybe it’s not possible or feasible. There are still ways. As you can see, our military is controlled by politicians, not warriors. Seek out power and influence in government. Acquire skills necessary for modern militaries today like logistics or arms manufacturing. Invest in those type of companies. Create powerful companies. Acquire wealth to fund your own projects. I can go on, but you can let your mind wander. Set your sights onwards and upwards. This is the way of sovereign men.
What does it mean to be sovereign? It means you see yourself as a player in the great game. You stopped being an NPC. Your decisions will affect the balance of power in the world. If you truly care about this idea of freedom, you make yourself sovereign. Anything less is still slavery. What can you do to make yourself a player? If not a player, at least closer to one? What can you do set up your family and sons for such work? Our life upon this earth IS warfare. That will end as soon as mankind does.”
(Source: https://resavager.com/p/your-heritage-is-rebellion)
Food for thought. If you aren’t working toward personal sovereignty, what are you really doing?
Get healthy, get smart, get strong (via training and martial arts) and get rich. Have kids. Have a mission. Help others. There is nothing else that matters in life.
Lioness: The Thin Line Between Chaos & Order
Taylor Sheridan is the hardest working man in television. A man responsible for showing all of us how the world truly works through his shows: Yellowstone, 1923, 1883, Mayor of Kingstown, Tulsa King, and Landman. I especially enjoy Special Ops: Lioness, a show about a secret group of CIA agents, quietly and not so quietly, protecting us from the bad guys out there.
In season 2, there was an incredible comment that one of the veteran agents said to a newbie.
“You see some of the things I’ve seen, do some of the things I’ve done, in order to learn that the world is this close (showing a half inch with her fingers) to chaos at all times. 5% of people are saints, 5% are evil, in their soul, stone evil. The other 90, they’re just sheep. They will follow whoever has the upper hand.
That is what we fight for. There is no winning, there is just the upper hand.”
Damn. This was the world we have always been in. But especially in this new emerging multipolar world, this is becoming more obvious and clear. We are up against near peer challengers. It’s a literal arms race, where there is no moat, and your edge does not last for long. It’s going to be an endless competition.
This is going to be life at the individual level, company/organizational level, country level and even between economic/military blocs. Buckle up everyone, it’s going to be a wild ride for the rest of the roaring 2020s.
Josh Clemens writes in his excellent article: “Rise of the Dutch Republics”:
“When hegemony is broken, conflict returns. At worst, the strong take what they can and the weak suffer what they must. At best, innovation returns. When there is no dominant power to ensure peace, there is also no bureaucracy to ensure stagnation. No global hall monitor. The same environment that produced Sparta and Athens––one of iteration and competition––is allowed to flourish.
Hegemony brings peace, competition brings innovation.
If America slips from total hegemon to standard first power, we’ll see a much more dynamic global environment. Ideally, the US will rise to the challenge and become more competitive as well. Decentralized currency means small network states can operate with a globally valid currency––no confederate dollars. Startup founders are now using LLMs to run companies with 2 people instead of 20. The same may be true of countries.
Athens held total hegemony for 67 years. The United States has enjoyed the same for 79 years. Now a challenge to American hegemony paired with advances in tech set the stage for the rise of smaller, agile nation states and organizations to compete.” (Source: https://americanreformer.org/2024/06/rise-of-the-dutch-republics/)
I expect there will be more change on the economic, military, technological and geopolitical aspects of the world. That means for anyone looking for stability, you are probably going to be VERY disappointed. For a Taurus and fixed sign individual, I am a planner and hate change and unpredictability.
So to properly manage myself, I have to over-prepare to deal with the volatility. I try to manage my cost structure carefully and keep as much cash & liquidity as reasonable. This allows me to breathe and think clearly.
I also aim to keep my calendar as light as possible, so I have time to think and can adjust schedules for the inevitable emergencies in life. An overbooked schedule leads to undue stress. Remember real work does not always look like work. The best ideas and insights come at the most unexpected times, free time.
Struggle and stress build men as I’ve learned from all the greats. That is also why my focus on mental resilience and physical fitness (personal trainer and fight training) will reap major rewards. This is the only way to stay in the game to take on all the inevitable opportunities that will appear in all this change. “Chaos is a ladder” as was famously said in Game of Thrones.
Be Like Bamboo: Making Your Moves in Shadows and Silence
I learned that Bamboo, the famous and incredibly strong Asian plant, actually grows for as much as 5 years underground, requiring continually daily fertilizer and water everyday. But once it breaks ground it actually grows 90 feet tall in 5 weeks.
It made me think about our own personal growth. You hear a lot about building in public or letting everyone around you know about your goals. But in reality when you are first starting off and you have no idea what you are doing, it’s better to be just like bamboo.
Make your moves underground, quietly as you explore and experiment. You have no idea what will work for you so it’s good to play around, trying new things, pushing and investing in yourself and not get locked into anything. It’s why so many startups work in stealth mode.
However, once you do have some clear direction and start getting some traction, being open and public with your goals do help. I recommend for personal growth sharing your specific goals with a close friend and providing them some cash or check to send to an organization you hate if you don’t hit them by a certain time and date. A good tip I learned via Tim Ferriss.
For startup founders, this is also why I recommend sharing with their investors their key milestones and doing at minimum monthly updates.
In both cases, that visibility and accountability forces you to execute. And helps keep you out of eventually lethargy that seems to engulf you at times. It's a key part of keeping that forward momentum.
But before that all happens, it’s usually better to work quietly and quickly. Get some learnings, build yourself up and get some strength before you move the spotlight on yourself. Be like bamboo. Do the hard work, build your foundation and prepare yourself for the crazy growth that will come.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads January 12th, 2025
"Friendship is the only cement that will ever hold the world together"-Woodrow Wilson
I've enjoyed Mick Ryan's books, masterclass on military thinking and what wars will look like in the future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYAE2jmD-bE
2. The new world of espionage in this new more chaotic world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tn6a4_OjhUM
3. Important discussion on the scary & possible scenario of Russia invading the Baltics in the future. More than possible.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZWMkRWx53c
4. For anyone who is interested in buying a business (SMB or online) and building wealth. Codie Sanchez is the real deal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZraBHTmZK98&t=862s
5. "So, you are witnessing a dramatic unfolding of history much like the collapse of the Soviet controlled Eastern Europe in the 1989-90 years. Assad’s flight is reminiscent of that of Nicolae Ceaușescu, once perceived to be invincible leaders, backed up by powerful regional players, too hard for the West to topple.
The Hamas attack on Israel however initiated an unexpected chain of events that revealed an all too familiar historical pattern: tyrants eventually fall and when they fall they fall hard. For now, for this brief moment, let’s celebrate the exit of the butcher of Damascus and hope there is a better future for Syria, its people and the entire region."
https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/assads-end
6. "For Türkiye the success of the HTS operation brings numerous benefits aside from offering the prospect of refugee returns and boxing in the YPG. On the diplomatic front, the succesful push by the HTS, and recognition that Türkiye has leverage over HTS, has made Türkiye perhaps the dominant external power in Syria - it could be argued therein with Israel (Israel might control the skies, but Türkiye seems to have more influence at this stage on the ground)."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/turkiye-syria-and-macro
7. "Here is how FAEM works. First let’s talk about the power of human-in-the-loop. We loved the HITL business model in previous years because it gives humans some final oversight of AI outputs, and helps collect more proprietary data for model training from the human input. The problem with it though, is it limits scalability and can sometimes lose much of the benefit of automation.
FAEM is a business model that takes less and less human-in-the-loop over time. It starts with an AI tool that needs some customized inputs. Let’s say it's an image generation tool that needs a text prompt. It turns out some people are better at prompts than others, so a little over a year ago we started seeing things like prompt marketplaces. Instead of writing your own prompt, you could find prompts other people had written and put those into the tool as-is, or with your own tweaks."
https://investinginai.substack.com/p/faem-my-favorite-ai-business-model
8. "I think Sheridan’s story is an extreme example of Parkinson’s Law, the famous adage that work will expand to fill whatever time is allocated to the task no matter the complexity or scope (the canonical example is handing in a college term paper: no matter what day a paper is assigned, you will magically do 95% of the work the evening before it is due).
In 2010, Sheridan left Sons of Anarchy over a contract dispute and decided that acting wasn’t his calling. But his wife was pregnant and he desperately needed work to support a new family. One of the most pressing deadlines you can have is “make money for my future child”. Sheridan credits this obligation with motivating his career change and getting those first few film scripts out the door.
Following his film work, Sheridan developed the hit TV show Yellowstone and set himself up to cruise into semi-retirement. But he’s since made six other shows and a major reason is that he created new pressures and deadlines for himself. How? By buying the $350m Four Sixes (6666) ranch in Texas. To finance the purchase, he struck a $200 million multi-show deal with Paramount. That’s a lot more deadlines (and content for our eyeballs)."
https://www.readtrung.com/p/taylor-sheridans-extreme-productivity
9. 5 months old but this is a sobering discussion on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. War of attrition and unfortunately Russia has the edge here. But UAF holding on, god bless them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t8wB_5LR6d4
10. This is a fascinating conversation with a VC investor at the top of their game.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3auPzwkZlak
11. Some background, If you want to understand what is going on Syria.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFu2kk8Kd0E&t=11s
12. "Turkey is now the dominant external force in Syria, perhaps with Israel acting without, and this gives Turkey leverage with other global powers, in particular with Russia, the U.S., and Iran."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/syria-winners-and-losers
13. Unbelievably educational and enlightening conversation on American politics and how government works (or does not).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xz8i90Hp2A
14. Building Holding Cos are the thing these days. Good to hear from someone who has done this well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJcrYRGRMmc
15. Understanding the situation in Georgia. Wish Russia would leave them alone. Possible EU & Turkey intervention? Geopolitics is getting complicated.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qz6_TAh4ZJs
16. Good tips for most foreign startup founders who are visiting San Francisco.
https://chrisneumann.com/archives/10-tips-for-canadian-founders-going-to-san-francisco
17. Helpful to understand the geopolitical situation in Syria. Turkey & Israel are the winners here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=llCrHnW9P4o
18. "We live in an era when public confidence in political leaders and in the government structures that support them has dropped to floor level, and is still going down. There are a number of different ways of dating public recognition of the utter uselessness of the western political class in different countries. The non-reaction to the financial crisis of 2008 is one. In Britain, the tragicomic self-harming episode of the Brexit negotiations was a key moment perhaps, in France the non-Presidency of François Hollande (2012-17) following the cheaply sordid reign of Sarkozy (2007-12).
But in any event, no western political system was left standing after the catastrophic mishandling of the Covid crisis, and of the crisis in Ukraine that followed. So it seems evident that we are governed by imbeciles, doesn’t it, and that those imbeciles have hollowed out and destroyed the capacity of the states that support them in office?
A properly functioning system requires a careful balance between restraining the desires of the political class to do things that are illegal or impossible on the one hand, and preventing elected governments from carrying out their mandates on the other. Recently, the balance has shifted in the direction of the politicians, essentially through the politicisation of higher level government jobs, and the increasing influence in all countries of "advisers", whose political future depends on that of their boss.
However, especially in the more sensitive areas of government—defence, foreign policy, intelligence, law and order—this runs into a powerful sense of inertia, and often a belief that long-term professionals know what they are doing, and would like to be left alone to do it. This is inevitable: if you have been reading diplomatic telegrams and intelligence reports about a crisis for months or even years about a crisis in a country where you were once stationed, you are bound to consider yourself an expert, not least because you have access to sources that others don't.
It's a small step, though, from that certainty to a kind of arrogance where you resist attempts to reach other conclusions or do things differently. This is the essence of the problem which people who talk about "Deep Sates" are trying to describe, and it's pretty much endemic in the government of a complex society."
https://aurelien2022.substack.com/p/in-the-shallows-of-the-deep-state
19. Scary new world of war. Listening to this makes me concerned on whether Europe has fully woken up. But Helsing is leading the charge.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XxtvQyy7gtE&t=1s
20. A valuable conversation on why Europe is lagging behind by missing waves of technology advancement. Less regulation and more confidence.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eevnPUDzNQ8
21. So many great business teardowns on this week’s NIA episode.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOkXPSJ0qyg
22. This is a brave man, going to the frontlines of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ox9_V-APOGg
23. End of an era: author of the "Revolt of the Public". Describes well the social media and Information Age messiness we live in right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wH-MsQpxo8
24. One of the most underrated Big tech CEOs around. An educational conversation on where AI is going in enterprise.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NtsnzRFJ_o&t=1s
25. "The Juvenal Principle: “Give them bread and circuses and they will never revolt.” Roman poet Juvenal believed a “long peace” was as evil as a war. The modern world needs to heed Juvenal's warning against luxury. To let “bread and circuses” sedate us into inaction is to betray our very soul..."
https://oldbooksguy.substack.com/p/10-concepts-from-ancient-rome-that
26. "China both produces a majority of the world’s rare earth minerals and reigns as the undisputed leader in processing them, thanks to its deals with mining operations in resource-rich countries like the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Last week, Beijing countered Biden’s latest round of export controls — which the White House had touted as the strongest yet on China’s access to advanced microchips — by outright banning the export of germanium, gallium and antimony to the U.S.
Those three critical minerals are used in military equipment like night-vision goggles and by American chipmakers. Some analysts pointed out that China specifically chose them as a warning because industry would feel the impact without being crippled.
William Reinsch, who oversaw export policies in the Clinton administration, described the minerals embargo as “shots across the bow,” more aimed at the incoming president than the current one.
China is showing it can “make our lives very inconvenient,” said Reinsch, now a trade expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank."
27. So much to learn from the great men of history with one of the best historians around: Andrew Roberts. Be proud of your past.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0aGN_rdnMQ&t=292s
28. Good assessment on the Syria situation by Erik Prince.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHFdBdj5luA
29. This was a great episode of All in Podcast this week. Good fun and educational. The gents at their best.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9p-vCUB5AA8&t=4280s
30. Important to understand what’s happening in Syria and what a potential future will be for them (and which neighboring powers will be dominant).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBXUxCpGbCA&t=4s
31. On the ground view of what's happening in China.
Faith in the political leadership is dropping. It seems like a race to the bottom of competence of the elites both in the West and China.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImWLXaQxN5o
32. "So, as a voracious reader, I’d like to do my part and recommend a selection of books I have found without par in understanding why the 20th Century was such a disaster. Particularly, it must be understood why the West went from being a self-confident, prosperous land of relative liberty to a region divided between outright communists and the worst sort of egalitarian socialists.
That is a big question, but it mainly comes down to the abominable mindsets of our awful rulers. Because it is they and what they thought that is generally to blame, understanding what they did and why is critical. Further, learning about the sort of societies that were functional and successful but-for their civilization-destroying interventions provides clues on how we can escape the grey, decaying world of the present and return to the timeline where the spirit of the Belle Epoque takes us ever higher up the ladder of civilizational excellence."
https://www.theamericantribune.news/p/5-books-to-understand-the-disaster-ca3
33. "The internet has diminished the power of even strong brands, and it’s penetrated the shield of good branding from mediocre products (e.g., Nike, Intel, Target, etc.). A product or service that cannot fulfill its promise to make you smarter or sexier can’t reverse its fortunes by listening to Don Draper. And inventing and refining a great product, fixing its supply chain, and improving your customer service is a lot more work than turning to Midjourney and asking for a new logo.
In my view, Jaguar should not have spent a dollar on marketing before it had an inspiring, ready-to-ship product to show the public.
The companies that have added the most value in the past 10 years barely advertise at all. Netflix now has a market cap of about $400b; in 2014 it was about $21b. Alphabet’s market cap 10 years ago was roughly $390b; today it is $2.5t.
Those companies and others took dollars out of advertising and put them into making better products and getting them to customers faster and cheaper than their competitors."
https://www.profgalloway.com/killing-the-cat
34. "The globalization of VC isn’t slowing down. While 65% of all unicorns minted with a Kauffman Fellow in the cap table are from the US, nearly two-thirds of our report's top ten venture capitalists invest outside the US, consistent with the trend on the Forbes Midas List. The globalization of venture capital will continue on this path.
Further, alternative venture capital models that innovate in their approach to sourcing, investing in, and exiting startups will continue to sprout. Regions outside the US will continue to see the launch of traditional VC firms leading with high conviction and alternative models investing with a different portfolio construction approach. We will also see the nascent growth of secondary vehicles to provide early liquidity to the market. This evolving landscape is great news for entrepreneurs and investors everywhere."
https://99tech.alexlazarow.com/p/a-new-way-to-measure-vc-success
A Good Death (and Life): Civil War the Movie
I think many of you all have seen the Civil War movie in 2024 by Alex Garland. It's a dystopian near future movie following a group of embedded reporters and photographers crossing America to DC as the literal modern & very violent new civil war in America winds down.
It’s chaotic and atrocity-filled which is tough to take in. As one of the soldiers in a scene says: “No one’s giving us orders, man. Someone’s trying to kill us, we’re trying to kill them.”
If you haven’t, it’s worth watching. If you haven’t and want to, there will be spoilers here.
There is that infamous scene, when they face some armed militia members at a mass burial site, one of the journalists says: “We’re American”, the militia man responds: “What kind of an American are you?” He starts threatening them, even executing their Hong Kong journalist friends until the older journalist mentor Sammy drives their truck over and runs the militia men down. It’s a pretty shocking scene.
But it’s the scene after, the montage after that really stuck with me. We find out their older mentor friend Sammy is shot while rescuing them. The scene is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3YMLtx3xA4A. Sammy is bleeding out in the back, looking out at the window while they drive through a burning forest at night. The accompanying song “Breaker’s Roar” by Sturgill Simpson is just perfect. I’ve watched it like 50 times trying to process it.
I don’t know if there ever is a good death, especially from a gunshot wound. But the more I think about it, maybe this is it. Sammy died saving his friends, people he considers family. And during his last hours, he is with them. He has lived a full life and as he drives through the forest fire, you see him smiling. It’s hauntingly beautiful and he reaches out to touch all the sparks outside.
Maybe that’s all a man can ask for. Living a full life. Passing on your hard earned knowledge, protecting your friends and family. Dying while surrounded by beauty. That is not nothing.
These are the lessons I take from this movie. And also more practically, make sure you are fit, well trained and well-armed so no one messes with you!
The Future Face of War: Economic Sanctions, Proxy Wars, Cyber-Infowar, Drones & Special Forces
Most people may not know this but I’m actually a history major and have studied war and geopolitics even as a young kid. It also helps to have visited many parts of the world having been to over 70+ countries at this time. And no surprise I started investing in Defense-tech startups in 2022, after the barbaric Russian invasion of Ukraine.
So I had to do a quick ramp up on what’s happening in the military world. I really hate that we are now in a world full of armed conflicts, driven by revanchist rising powers in China-Russia-Iran-North Korea. This when there seems to be a growing weakness in America and the West at large. But it seems to be forced upon us so we better understand and prepare for it. This is a darker post than usual but here we are. It’s a much darker and more scary world we are in compared to the one we lived in before 2020.
Ukraine is the template for the future of war for the USA, as well the Iranian driven shenanigans in the Middle East with their support of Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. The most recent success of Turkey in toppling Assad in Syria is the most successful example of this. I think China is watching this closely too.
No more American troops on the ground (that we know of). These will be proxy war: picking sides, preferably one with a strong military cadre and saturating them with key weaponry like infantry portable anti-tank and anti-air missiles, artillery, ammo, long range missiles or whatever is most suited to win on the battlefield. This and training like what NATO forces have been doing with the plucky Ukrainian armed forces since 2014. There will be no American troops on the ground (publicly, more on this below) as the public is weary of war after the debacle in Iraq and Afghanistan.
It will be a Cyber-Info War, using America’s advanced Satellites & Signals Intelligence & Targeting. One clear example are the decapitation operations aka Headhunting missions. Identifying and killing groups of generals & officers or major logistical targets or major concentrations of arms and weapons. This has happened continually throughout the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKhLuXh_4MM
Widespread use of drones. Even drone swarms. These are spotting technology to actual kill missions with Bayraktar TB2 & Ghost Phoenix & Switchblade 2 kamikaze drones. You really can’t hide anymore due to the incredible ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) capabilities most militaries have via drones (and satellites) and mass movement of troops will be discovered and hit with artillery.
Special Forces on the ground: You can’t tell me US SOF, CIA SAD or Polish GROM are not on the front lines. But the Ukrainian SOF has been critical in gutting Russian supply chains in Ukraine and Russia proper itself. Lots of mysterious fires happening in factories, key railway lines and arms depots on the front and in Russia itself.
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dkNAcdBKFI
These measures would all be accompanied by financial Sanctions: Most of the world is still reliant on the US Dollar which is the plumbing of the world’s financial system. Many countries are also reliant on our tooling & machinery, advanced technology like microchips and general know-how. Cutting this off obviously makes sense as the more you can damage the enemy’s economy the less capable they can feed their war machine.
So why should you care? As I have said many times before, as we go into a deglobalized and multipolar world, there will sadly be more war. Some hot, some cold or more likely hybrid. But war is coming. This is the regular reminder from Trotsky “You might not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.”You might not like this but it does not make it less true. So it helps to know what form it will take as war will impact all of us in some way.
It’s Still A Great Time to Be Alive: Paul Han & Youtube Influencer Hustle
I’m always looking for new sources of wisdom and inspiration. Youtube has been a massive boon here. I stumbled upon a young 21 year old Korean-Canadian Youtuber named Paul Han: https://www.youtube.com/@PaulHan23. He and his older brother, who live at home with their parents, are in the process of building an ecommerce empire. He has decided to document his day to day for everyone.
He shares everything, the good and the bad and he admits he is just starting off and not quite made it yet to his goal of a 10 figure ecommerce business.
What I also like about Paul Han is that he shows everything and provides a good model for all young men. He gets up around 4 am in the morning, does the cold ice bath, listens to inspirational podcasts and interviews for motivation. He works out at the gym with his brother and then spends a few hours coordinating with his team. He reads a bit and then does 3-4 hours deep work, working on new ads, going through analytics. Chills/rests, followed by another 3-4 hours of deep work. He reads and then goes to bed, ready to do it all again the next day.
It’s inspiring and a reminder that these kinds of opportunities just did not exist when I was growing up. Entrepreneurship just wasn’t a thing back in the 90s in Canada. The internet was just coming out to the Universities. There were no examples of folks like Paul for young ambitious kids to emulate. Not that I have much to complain about at the moment, but I probably could have done with a bit more of this kind of inspiration growing up.
Now there are literally thousands of examples. There are tons of new tools and platforms to leverage. So many kinds of opportunities: ecommerce, dropshipping, selling digital courses, building an ad agency, real estate investing, commodity, crypto and stock trading. There are so many courses to take and masterminds to join so you can learn and take advantage of the multitude of opportunities out there. You are literally one search away from whatever it is you want to learn and master. The upside for an ambitious and hardworking young person is absolutely infinite.
There is much to absorb from Paul Han’s videos and shows the zeitgeist of our time. It’s the “Age of Individuals” as Tai Lopez calls it when ambitious people, young and old are able to leverage all the incredible tools available to us like Shopify, the various ad platforms on Facebook or Google or Tiktok, using the best copywriting tactics and aided by virtual assistants and AI tools. All to build a life they want. Being their own boss and incorporating goals of making money, while enjoying travel, freedom, health and fitness.
Another reminder that it’s a great time to be alive. Make sure you take advantage of all the opportunities available to craft the life you want for you and your family. The future is bright for those who are ready to do the work.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads January 5th, 2025
“You can’t use up creativity. The more you use, the more you have.” – Maya Angelou
"Black Label Logic clearly liked writing. He did it for 6 years. He published hundreds of articles and made countless podcasts.
And then he shut down and disappeared because his life got busier, he had to focus on his job, and his art wasn’t making enough money for it to be worth his time.
If you are any kind of an artist – writer, podcaster, YouTuber, creator, etc., learn from the mistake of Carl Adaugeo and his defunct blog Black Label Logic.
MONETIZE YOUR WORK. Do not be “above” making money. Do not act like selling is “bad”.
Earn a living from your art and do it virtuously. Create products and sell them at a decently high price point.
Make them so good that you can put your heart and soul into selling them. Make them so good that the customer is DELIGHTED when he buys them.
If you can do that you will stand the test of time. You will never shut down."
https://lifemathmoney.com/black-label-logic/
2. "There are several tech “strategies” we have seen successfully deployed to DoD. The first includes those creating entirely new technologies for defense use, like Anduril, which pioneers systems that require significant customer education and high R&D costs but establish deep tech moats and long-term influence over requirements. These startups must navigate a fine line of convincing the DoD to change how they operate in order to take advantage of modern technology opportunities. However, this path has the benefit of establishing a unique and defensible market position, typically resulting in the aforementioned PoRs.
Another strategy involves startups improving existing DoD technologies by reducing costs, improving usability, or expanding scalability. Companies like Apex Space and Albedo Space exemplify this strategy by refining satellite technology – satellite bus manufacturing and 10cm earth observation imagery respectively. The DoD already has access to satellite bus manufacturing technology and 10cm earth observation imagery, but the current state of the art for both technologies are extremely expensive and inefficient. While these startups avoid the need for customer education, they face the challenge of displacing entrenched vendors and risk competing primarily on price, requiring strong execution and process advantages.
The third strategy adapts private sector technologies for DoD use. For example, C3.AI developed data analytics products for the DoD, leveraging technology that had already demonstrated successfully in commercial applications. These startups focus on integration and execution moats rather than technical innovation, as their value lies in adapting existing tools to meet specific defense needs."
https://maggiegray.substack.com/p/mission-driven-metrics-a-framework
3. A true American hero here. He provides a good perspective on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnk8GQGkAjM
4. I've always enjoyed my time in Belgrade and Serbia in general. Been way too long since I've been back. Great food, nice people and amazing nightlife.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vyEzseB_VSs
5. LOVE Tbilisi. Yes, some big protests going on right now against the Russian influenced government. But it's a lovely and wonderful place. Can't wait to return there soon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmcIz-MhQ8g
6. Istanbul, what a grand city. The restaurant shown here Nisantsi Baskose is excellent. Been there a few times myself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5H01enlHDM
7. Always wanted to visit Bogota, and Colombia the country in general. One day. Enjoying this video series.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2T_LFhCYsDc
8. Frightening conversation but it's very clear China is the biggest threat to the West. And CCP have learned that the Western politicians are weak & cowardly from their haphazard approach to supporting Ukraine against Russia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__tFFlZKoMM
9. "If you aren’t sensing a theme here yet, let me make it explicit: China used the power of government subsidies to dominate the entire manufacturing world in 25 years. They may be smart. They may be hardworking. But the main reason they won was INSANE government subsidies that would give your favorite libertarian cold sweats.
Trump and JD Vance claim to want to bring back American manufacturing. Some of their advisors also claim to want small government. Unfortunately, this problem (imo) is ONLY solved by an extreme partnership between the government and private industry."
https://carriednointerest.substack.com/p/bringing-back-american-manufacturing
10. "The science on icy soaks is a bit murky. But you could still get something out of cold plunging—just maybe for a different reason than you think. “Lacking physiological evidence of the purported benefits, many of the positive effects associated with cold water immersion can be concluded to in part [be] due to a placebo effect,” Horan says. Meaning: If you think you’re less sore or stiff because you cold plunged, you’ll actually feel less sore and less stiff—and then you may be more likely to hit the gym and go at it again.
So the timing of your cold plunge could largely depend on what feels good for you, with the caveats being that you’ll want to let your body warm up if you’re plunging pre-workout, and you might undercut some muscular adaptations if you’re plunging after a resistance workout."
https://www.gq.com/story/cold-plunge-before-or-after-workout
11. "You have to understand – if you take entitlement and shit from people, more of it will be given to you.
Sometimes you need to show people their place. Especially people who have an air of unearned superiority who think they can say anything they want.
You need to have some a-shole in you."
https://lifemathmoney.com/sometimes-you-have-to-show-people-their-place/
12. "The reality is that, in many respects, Merkel paved the way to today’s crisis. Her advocacy for stringent austerity measures, implemented both across Europe and within Germany after the 2008 financial crisis, ushered in over a decade of stagnation and underinvestment. Her policies left Germany’s infrastructure — bridges, roads and railways — to crumble; her doubling down on Germany’s neo-mercantilist, export-driven economic model, especially during the euro crisis, stifled internal demand by compressing wages and encouraging precarious employment, while leaving the economy overly dependent on exports.
By pursuing an industrial policy that emphasised traditional manufacturing sectors — automobiles, heavy industry and mechanical parts — she left Germany lagging in the high-tech revolution. By phasing out nuclear energy, she deprived the country of a clean and cost-effective energy source. By opening the door to over a million asylum seekers, she created serious challenges in social cohesion and public safety. By embracing a paternalistic and TINA-driven approach to politics, exemplified in her concept of “market-conforming democracy”, she starved the German democratic discourse."
https://unherd.com/2024/11/angela-merkel-architect-of-german-decline/
13. "To me, this is just more schizophrenic / bi-polar market activity than any real indications of any structural issues. The Brazilian right absolutely hates Lula and is negative no matter what the reality is. Bolsonaro left the Lula government with increasing deficits, which the Lula government has actually been trying to reverse. Basically, try as I might, I can't really find anything truly wrong with Brazil, especially when measured on the same standard that other countries are. The trading action seems to come entirely down to ridiculous telenovela drama.
Buying Brazil worked out well for us in late 2022 / early 2023. I dare say it may be that time again. Any rally in EWZ should be hugely positive for Brazilian names like Vale and Braskem - names which I am now overweight - especially considering Vale is looking at big export increases in iron next year and Braskem is forecasting a return to positive FCF for 2025."
https://calvinfroedge.com/que-viva-b/
14. "Everyone goes to war with an idea of how they can win, and a few brilliant exceptions manage to pull it off. But not every campaign is France 1940. Even the best strategists face serious setbacks, and rarely end up winning precisely as they anticipated. The measure of strategic ability is not just the brilliance of the plan, but the ability to adapt to the unexpected. Older writers were correct: it is better to think of strategy as an action, not an idea."
https://dispatch.bazaarofwar.com/p/is-strategy-just-a-theory-of-victory
15. Russia's ongoing grey war against the west. The unfortunately effective unit at their forefront of this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gt6_9m5qXdU
16. Learning about this Agentic AI thing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZdfxRlMpxPg
17. "The first step to recovery is to recognize that one has a problem, and in the case of the United States foreign policy elite we seem no longer able to craft a workable strategy, operationalize and execute it to reach the proclaimed objectives.
We need to ask ourselves a simple question: Why has the United States been routinely unable to win wars over the past three decades (the Desert Storm battle to dislodge Iraq from Kuwait a notable exception)—not in the sense of breaking the adversary’s military and destroying its government, but when it comes to achieving the strategic objectives we set out to accomplish? Is it that we no longer have the resources to implement what we set out to do?
Or perhaps it is that what increasingly passes for strategy is more reminiscent of a policy conversation in a self-contained echo chamber, rather than being grounded in the realities of the Darwinian ecosystem we call international relations? I submit that it is the latter, and here is why."
https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2024/09/27/a_crisis_of_competence_1061277.html
18. Angola in play and shows the critical importance of minerals and natural resources in the new multipolar world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3b3FBvEB30
19. Always look at diversifying and it's super interesting. Watch capital flows.
This is a solid conversation on investing in the emerging markets.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jU2DZiCIGE
20. I truly hope Zeihan is right here. He seems way too confident that we can replace metal and mineral processing from China.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRT5MJBcd-c
21. Disturbing discussion on the surveillance and disinformation industry that operates in America and around the world. I believe probably 60-70% of this, which is frightening.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrJhQpvlkLA
22. Erik Prince always gives a cold & sober assessment of geopolitical events.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqusNtLF32s
23. "Bryce Roberts of Indie VC first highlighted the trend of “one-and-done” rounds back in 2017. Back then, it was something of a rarity, but these days a considerable number of founders are intentionally pursuing that path. At a broader level, the best founders today are raising fewer rounds with less dilution and/or skipping rounds altogether.
And many VCs are struggling to come to terms with this.
Firms with mediocre returns that don’t have much of a differentiator or positioning beyond “solid, inoffensive fund that’s a good fallback if you can’t raise from a top tier VC” are struggling to raise new funds or closing up shop entirely. Many individual investors who are later in their careers or who don’t have the inclination to reinvent themselves are opting out of venture capital as a career. Others who are refusing to adapt are being managed out by their firms."
https://chrisneumann.com/archives/venture-capitals-changing-of-the-guard
24. "In the year 2000, the United States and its allies in Asia, Europe, and Latin America accounted for the overwhelming majority of global industrial production, with China at just 6% even after two decades of rapid growth. Just thirty year later, UNIDO projects that China will account for 45% of all global manufacturing, singlehandedly matching or outmatching the U.S. and all of its allies.
This is a level of manufacturing dominance by a single country seen only twice before in world history — by the UK at the start of the Industrial Revolution, and by the U.S. just after World War 2. It means that in an extended war of production, there is no guarantee that the entire world united could defeat China alone.
That is a very dangerous and unstable situation. If it comes to pass, it will mean that China is basically free to start any conventional conflict it wants, without worrying that it will be ganged up on — because there will be no possible gang big enough to beat it. The only thing they’ll have to fear is nuclear weapons.
China’s leaders know this very well, of course, which is why they are unleashing a massive and unprecedented amount of industrial policy spending — in the form of cheap bank loans, tax credits, and direct subsidies — to raise production in militarily useful manufacturing industries like autos, batteries, electronics, chemicals, ships, aircraft, drones, and foundational semiconductors. This doesn’t just raise Chinese production — it also creates a flood of overcapacity that spills out into global markets and forces American, European, Japanese, Korean, and Taiwanese companies out of the market.
By creating overcapacity, China is forcibly deindustrializing every single one of its geopolitical rivals. Yes, this reduces profit for Chinese companies, but profit is not the goal of war.
America’s most economically important allies — Germany and Japan — are bearing the brunt of China’s most recent industrial assault.
Except then a war comes, and suddenly you find that B2B SaaS and advertising platforms and chat apps aren’t very useful for defending your freedoms. Oops! The right time to worry about manufacturing would have been years before the war, except you weren’t able to anticipate and prepare for the future. Manufacturing doesn’t just support war — in a very real way, it’s a war in and of itself."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/manufacturing-is-a-war-now
25. "The only point of money is to improve your life, make sure you know what the plan is. House, car, whatever it is. Do not forget the point of the digits on a screen
Do not kill your health or personal life. You are allowed to catch the mania a bit, but giving up your health isn’t worth it for the extra 10% returns you “could have made”. Doesn’t make any sense and you’ll pay for it dearly on the come down during the next bear market (we don’t plan on riding that one down)
Rule #1 - No Round Numbers: On the paid side we’ve walked through tons of personal examples of when we’d recommend taking money off the table. In the free side it’s easier to explain it like this: No round numbers.
If you’re young and the number is $1M? Guess what you’ll probably hit $876,000 or something close and then we have the massive correction.
If your number is $5M? Probably you hit $4,678,923 and then suddenly a massive -70% correction. So on and so forth."
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/mental-health-and-lady-luck-during
26. "The core question in this scenario is what portion of the returns in seed investing will come from the proven, repeat founders who the multi-stage funds are likely to attract. If you believe 75% or more of the future returns in seed will come from this population, there is a strong argument that the multi-stage funds will dominate seed.
The remaining alpha available to seed specialist firms is too small to support the number of seed-focused firms in the market today. I have spoken with institutional LPs who do believe multi-stage funds will capture enough of the alpha in seed to obviate the need to focus on dedicated seed-only managers. I would not describe this as a consensus opinion, but it is one that I’ve heard enough times to know that it is a view held by some who allocate capital to private equity and venture. I do not think that 75% of the best opportunities in seed will come from that pool of founders, but I also believe proven, repeat founders will make a meaningful contribution to overall seed returns.
I have spoken to many smaller, sub $200 million fund managers with strong opinions about how good multi-stage funds will be at seed investing. While we can argue about how successful these larger firms will be, there is no argument about whether they will be run; LPs have already voted with their dollars, and this will happen."
https://chudson.substack.com/p/three-future-states-of-the-early
27. "I have my own three-pronged theory about why crypto is one of the fastest-growing networks in human history.
Government Capture – Big business, big tech, big pharma, big military, and big [Fill in the Blank] have used their wealth and power to capture most large governments and economic blocs. While the standard of living and lifespan gains have been rapid and consistent since the end of WW2, they have slowed for the 90% of the population that owns very few financial assets and ultimately possesses little to no political agency. Decentralization is the antidote to a dystopian concentration of wealth and power.
Magical Tech – The Bitcoin blockchain and the plethora of blockchains that spawned in its wake are pieces of magical new technology. From an innocuous beginning, Bitcoin, at least, has proven to be one of the most battle-tested monetary systems. There is an almost $2 trillion bug bounty in the form of Bitcoins that can be double-spent for anyone who can hack the network.
Greed – The rise of the fiat and energy value of cryptos that power blockchains or the tokens created via these blockchains made users rich. The riches of the crypto cohort were on display this November during the US election. The US, like most other nation-states, features a pay-for-play political system. The crypto banditos were one of the largest contributors to political candidates of any industry, which resulted in wins for pro-crypto candidates. Crypto voters were able to shower largesse upon political campaigns because Bitcoin is the fastest-growing asset in human history."
https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/the-cure
28. Always a good episode on what’s up in cultural businesses and tech at the edge of the internet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxluK76HuEE&t=55s
29. Ed Sims and Boldstart VC has crushed it at seed stage. They know and choose the specific game they want to play (inception rounds), and not try to be something they aren't. Something we can all learn from.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSPpQFEmHX8
30. Hard truth: China has always been an aggressive, expansive power since the beginning of their history. We the West are in Cold War 2 with the CCP.
Great discussion with someone who actually understands China.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TR8kn92HNRc
31. "To summarize: These things are important for defense applications, especially electronic warfare and communications. Perhaps China is cutting us off from them to show force, leverage in future negotiations, or because they rightly want to kneecap us the way we kneecap them. It’s a move that we should respect and should have expected.
Additionally, although we're not going to run out tomorrow, we need to get ready and it’s frankly a little surprising to me that we’re not already moving forward on initiatives to start Gallium mining. Maybe there are and it’s not public, but I am skeptical.
We should take this whole thing as a “learning moment”: Free trade is a national security risk when you’re obtaining a critical component from your adversaries. Overregulation killed an industry, one of many, and we now have to make the right decisions, not just for Gallium, for America’s industrial and mining base as a whole."
https://www.glinert.co/p/china-just-kicked-us-in-the-shins
32. Some good investigative work here. Definitely Ukrainian & Turkish intelligence and special ops involved here in Syria.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iCGEWrgX54c
33. Jeff Bezos, some of the clearest thinking and communications around. "We are in multiple golden ages at once"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s71nJQqzYRQ&t=4s
34. "Unlike the classic apex predator, which evolves alongside its prey, a nonnative apex predator arrives with such disruptive force that instead of dominating an ecosystem they transform it. Legacy media looks like Florida 30 years after the arrival of the Burmese python. A nonnative apex predator (digital) is out-hunting and out-reproducing the previous apex predator (legacy media).
An apex predator released into the wild has reproduced asexually, doesn’t need distribution partners, and is devouring the ecosystem. Since launching its original content business in 2012, Netflix’s market cap has increased 7,337%. This means the industry is booming for all involved, no? The dominant means of production for scripted television is Netflix, which has flexed this muscle to reshape the flows of value. Specifically, it has reduced production costs, while massively investing to create an explosion in the amount of content, transferring value from all parts of the ecosystem to the company’s shareholders and subscribers. If you live in L.A., you’ve likely given 4 stars to a former producer of a reality-TV series.
There are 180,000 members of SAG-AFTRA, and last year 86% of them didn’t qualify for health insurance, as they made less than $26k. Constant reminders from CNBC re the market touching new highs masks a deeper issue: As in the future described by William Gibson, the future/prosperity of media is here, just not evenly distributed. AI, Netflix, and the Big Tech platforms are eating everything, and they have few, if any, predators. The deer and alligators (industry workers) have no means of defense, because they’ve never encountered this species/technology before. The result is an atmosphere of anxiety and fear. These emotions are common sense."
https://www.profgalloway.com/media-consolidation/
35. Enjoyed this week's episode with two special guests: Joe Lonsdale & Gavin Baker. Heartened by the convo on AI, Defensetech and rare earths. But we got a lot of work to do.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2xfW3hgxb4
36. "While it’s popular to say, “Follow your passion,” it’s better for potential entrepreneurs to develop an eye for how the world is evolving. Becoming a student of what’s changing and why will lead to opportunities."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/12/07/the-unknown-entrepreneur-arc/
37. What an interview. Javier Milei, responsible for the turnaround of Argentina. The battle needs to be fought at both the economic and cultural level. Some lessons to be learned here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NLzc9kobDk
38. An excellent discussion with one of the top VC investors in Europe with an incredible investing track record. Valuable conversation on the art of venture investing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9MK3n9m7SM
39. Quite an interesting conversation on how and what Western analysts got wrong on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Full Benefit: Embrace Challenges
I learned this term “Full Benefit” from some ex-Navy SEAL friends a while ago but had forgotten it. It got resurfaced on Linkedin by Teddy Mitrosilis and it was an excellent reminder. Here it is below.
“Navy SEALs have a saying.
When something sucks, they say:
"FULL BENEFIT"
It’s an instant mindset shift.
• Lose an important customer?
• Hiking and it starts pouring rain?
• Driving and your car breaks down?
• Working on a project and lost a draft?
• Didn't get the job opportunity you want?
Full Benefit.
***
Lesson: Adversity is an opportunity
The message is simple.
Every adversity is an opportunity.
• To grow
• To learn
• To evolve
• To get stronger
• To become better
These moments forge us if we let them.
The next time you're facing something hard, welcome it.
Work through the process.
Learn the lessons.
Reap the full benefit.”
No wonder the Navy SEALS are so bad ass.
Man, I so wish I had understood this earlier in my life and career. I wish everyone heard and understood this. The world would not be the disastrous mess it is now. But alas, better late than never. So remember, when you meet the inevitable challenge or problem in life, just say to yourself “Full benefit” and reset your mindset to tackle it head on.
Kingdom of Heaven: Our Own Personal Crusade to Find Purpose and Do Right
Kingdom of Heaven is one of the best periodic movies to come out by the always excellent Ridley Scott. It takes place during the Middle Ages across Europe to the Far East right before the 3rd Great crusade. It’s an amazing story of bravery, treachery, honor, duty and war in exotic lands at a grand scale.
Focused around the true life character of Balian of Ibelin, a true knight and exemplar of Chivalry who ends up defending Jerusalem against the noble Muslim knight Saladin and his grand army. He becomes the key man and leader of the Christians.
He has trouble when he first arrives in the near East, he faces off against a Muslim cavalier and is forced to fight and kill him. He ends up capturing his servant but releases him as he will ‘not suffer to have a slave’ even though it’s his right.
Balian is told by the man: “Your qualities will be known among your enemies wherever you meet them.”
The irony is that this servant was apparently a great lord among the Muslims whose army he unknowingly fights and loses to in the future. Captured and expecting to be executed, Balian is released with the answer:
“You reap what you sow. You have heard of this, no?”
Karma. Love it. And life in the long run you do see this happen. If you do good, it will come back to you in some form. It’s certainly something I’ve seen in the last 25 years of my career. Try to treat all people well. You really never know.
Balian is an honorable character. He is noble, he always tries to do the right thing. But he questions whether he is in God’s Grace because he had killed men before. And his friend, Hospitaller monk and knight answers him:
“Holiness is in right action. And courage on behalf of those who cannot defend themselves. And goodness, what God desires is here (points to head) and here (points to heart) and what you decide to do everyday, you will be a good man. Or not.”
I think there is a great lesson here. Most bad and evil done in the world is not from Ill intent but from cowardice. Or doing the expedient thing. Doing the right thing is hard. It’s supposed to be. But you can do right in small ways, every single day as you find your purpose in life. As was said in the movie: “If God does not love you, how could you have done all the things you have done.”
A 2024 Recap & Retrospective: Still in the Middle of the Storm
What a rough year. But we made it. And as always I try to take stock of the year and squeeze whatever learnings I can. So like last year, doing my 2024 recap.
Business and Personal Finance: Give it a B-. On the business side, only did a few investments as LP and few defense-tech/ manufacturing tech related deals. Spent most of the year rethinking/reformating my entire investment strategy and thesis. Did not help that much of our Holding Co cash and attention has been on getting regulatory approval. Thankfully we have some strong foundations in place for the next few years.
On the personal side, far too many accounts receivables. Cash flow was a mess and my cost structure literally was out of control. Again. Had some big projects fall through due to numerous reasons but this is still on me. I need to be way more conservative on my cash flow projections. But as a wise man once told me, if you aren’t close to bankruptcy every 5 years you aren’t pushing hard enough. Thankfully, I have reserves and some accounts payables finally came through the last 2-3 weeks of December.
Travel: No real grade. Did not make it to Japan, Albania, Ukraine or Taiwan this year, which is a shame and part of my longer term vision. So will rectify this in 2025.
Spent more time with my parents in Canada which was good. Lesson from Codie Sanchez is to think not in years but in times. How many times will you see them? I will be going back to Vancouver often in 2025.
But this year was still busy.
Saudi Arabia: 2X
Thailand: 1X
Canada: 4X
Poland: 1X
Georgia: 4X
United Arab Emirates: 2X
Hungary: 1X
Azerbaijan: 2X
Australia: 1X
Germany: 1X
Czech Republic: 2X
Bosnia Herzegovina: 1X
I went to New York City a few times this year which was great. Also visited Detroit and Chicago for the first time and I will be back there. I really need to explore more of the USA & Canada.
Health: It’s an A-. Did Muay Thai training in Phuket at this really nice resort training center that had all the fixings, amazing gym, personal coaches, Muay Thai ring, sauna & Onsen center and sports clinic. It was incredible.
I now have my in person personal trainer and virtual personal trainer that I’ve been using for this last year. The accountability has been amazing and I feel fitter and stronger than I have been in decades. I’ve also not traveled as much as I did in 2023. That helps with some routine at home. I tend to take short afternoon naps and sleep better at night overall. Thank you ZMA supplements.
Family & Relationships: Still pretty bad, but better. So give it C-. Yet as Charlie Munger says: “Self pity has no utility.” I’m a grinder and never quit on stuff that is important.
So still lots of therapy happening for all of us. But at least we are talking now. Home life is still a bit uncomfortable at times but it’s civil now at least. We all have some Modus Operandi around the house.
I can tolerate more pain, handle my rage issues better due to my regular fitness training and just being better rested ie. good sleep. I keep reminding myself of Ernest Shackleton’s motto: “Through endurance we conquer!”
Personal Development: Give myself a B+. Tied into my business and investing especially as I’ve focused more on geopolitics, global macro, military stuff for my new investing thesis.
I’ve been much more disciplined & systematic about learning, doing at least 1-2 hours of listening to podcasting, writing and reading online. I read twice as many books this year than in 2023. My focus for 2025 is reading a lot more books. Physical books. Consistently too is the plan. I bought so many books this year (like hundreds). Now I need to start reading them.
I have spent too much time in Europe. However, the world has changed so starting in 2025, I will be focusing more time in Japan (and probably Taiwan), my so-called pivot to Asia.
But also more focus in America, whether in Texas, New York or the industrial heartlands of the midwest.
I will make exceptions for defense-tech or manufacturing conferences as I am still in learning mode. These wherever they are or in places like Ukraine, Baltics or Albania, but otherwise will limit my time now in Europe as much as I love that region.
But again, I am grateful for surviving mentally and making it through the year. Grateful for the learning. Grateful for my health. And feeling the major positive vibe shift that came in the USA mid-November. A confidence that seems to have grown in Silicon Valley and the rest of America.
I have a clear plan for next year. Now, it’s just plain discipline and hard execution. Leveraging the principle of Kaizen, making small but regular incremental improvements over time. As the philosopher Khalil Gibran wrote: “Progress lies not in enhancing what is, but in advancing towards what will be.” Happy new year everyone. Let’s make 2025 amazing.
Preparing for War: It’s Gonna Be Nutty Out There (Your Regular Reminder)
Many folks know I’ve been a prepper for a while. I was even written as part of that 2016 New Yorker profile on Preppers of Silicon Valley. Unfortunately I think my views have been proven right. The world has only gotten disordered.
A Unipolar world of an American led West shifting fast to a multipolar one, with the Global South asserting themselves and the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea are engaging in hybrid war against us. Complex global supply chains breaking down.
The gap between wealthy & poor is only increasing. In the meantime we are seeing a breakdown of law and order due to desperation of some people. Aided and abetted by stupid progressive left pro-crime policies as they gut police forces mainly in most blue states (thank you Alexander Soros and Dustin Moskowitz, billionaires who push damaging policies in cities they don’t live in). Driven by insane ultra leftwing ideology. Our institutions are rotted from within as DEI initiatives have driven out competence.
We can sit and take it. Or we can do something about it. You have to prepare for the hybrid war happening against us.
That means you have to be independent of thought. And the only way you can do so is controlling your media diet and education.
You also have to be able to speak up when you see stupidity and evil. To do this you have to be financially independent. It’s hard to speak up when you are dependent on a job.
You have to have multiple streams of income, cash and cold and lots of invested assets you can draw from in different geographic locations. Able to fight back against “cancel culture” or fight back against Law-fare. This is one of the scariest things I see. Lawfare is the use of the legal system to shut someone down through fake accusations like Amber Heard did to Johnny Depp or Bryan Johnson’s fiancé did to him. War is not cheap.
You have to have a personal brand, strong relationships and a good reputation to draw from. Credibility and influence is power. You also need anti-censorship platforms to leverage like X or Rumble. The mainstream medias like Television, Newspapers, YouTube, FB & Instagram are all risk adverse and actively censors people and messages that go against mainstream narratives.
Going back to my prepper interests, probably also a good idea to have a small garden or even better agricultural land. And like the Mormons, at minimum, have a stockpile of canned goods, barrels of drinkable water and other useful supplies in case there are more supply chain issues. Unlike Mormons, you should also stockpile some weapons and bullets for protecting yourself and your supplies.
Last and equally as important, you need to be in good health and physically strong. I invested in a personal trainer that is getting me very fit. I actually did trips to MMA fight camp in Thailand. I will do more of them in 2025.
You should also get some training in martial arts and learn how to properly use a gun, whether pistol, shotgun or rifle. I’ve signed up for training in tactical shooting and CQB (Close Quarter Battle) from Sheepdog Response in 2025.
Remember, that many of the ancient Greek and Roman learned men like Socrates or Pliny the Elder were soldiers and more than competent fighters. Sometimes You have to be able to back up your words with physical strength and skill.
All these initiatives are confidence building and have enriched my overall life well. More importantly, it helps prepare me to ride out the ongoing craziness in the world. And better able to help those around me. Like it or not, War is here so it’s time to get FIT.
Happy NEW YEAR!!
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads December 29th, 2024
“Your most important work is always ahead of you, never behind you.” – Stephen Covey
"Recognizing the importance of timeliness, thoughtfulness, enthusiasm, effort, and consistent communication can significantly strengthen these relationships. Entrepreneurs would do well to evaluate their current level of interaction and look for opportunities to enhance or improve it."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/11/23/the-quality-of-entrepreneur-interactions/
2. "By the early 12th century, Georgia stood at a crossroads. For nearly a century, the Caucasus had been a battleground in the Seljuk Wars, a protracted and brutal conflict between the Christian kingdoms of Byzantium, Georgia, Armenia, and Outremer and the expansive Seljuk Empire. The Seljuks, masters of a vast domain stretching from Bukhara to Baghdad, sought to tighten their grip on the strategically critical Caucasus region.
The Georgians, despite enduring years of devastation, retained an unbroken spirit. Under the leadership of King David IV, known to history as David the Builder, Georgia mounted a resistance that would culminate in one of the most stunning military triumphs of the medieval era: the Battle of Didgori.
This clash, fought on August 12, 1121, has been immortalized in Georgian memory as a miraculous victory against overwhelming odds. For David, the battle was not merely about survival but about reclaiming Georgia’s sovereignty and ensuring its place as a bastion of Christian power and culture in a tumultuous region."
https://varangianchronicler.substack.com/p/wolves-of-kartli
3. "F1 has long had large and rabid fan bases in Europe and South America, but that enthusiasm didn’t land on U.S. shores until 2017, when Liberty Media bought a controlling interest in the league. Under new boss Greg Maffei, F1 took a big swing at America. Targeting young people, Maffei and the F1 Team built an iconic brand, in the most competitive market, in less than a decade. There were races with celebrities in attendance — Tom Cruise, LeBron James, Rihanna — new sponsorships, and an aggressive social media presence.
However, Liberty’s gangster move was the Netflix docuseries Drive to Survive. Now in its sixth season, the show is rewriting the playbook re how sports leagues market themselves. It’s a behind-the-scenes look at “a lot of young, good-looking guys,” as Maffei once told CNBC, hard-charging billionaire team owners, and high-tech pit crews competing in a series of überluxe international locations. (F1 wasn’t the first to try this; the NFL’s Hard Knockspremiered on HBO back in 2001.)
By focusing on individuals and harnessing the power of storytelling, Drive to Survive used streaming to introduce U.S. viewers to drivers who were superstars overseas, among them Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen. It gave newbie (read: American) fans a compelling point of entry and became a fount of bingeable video that was easily shared, particularly on Instagram. There are accounts devoted to what Hamilton wears as he walks on red carpets.
Tribal rivalries, betrayal, greed, revenge — all the stuff humans are hardwired to love in a lustrous package every week. Champions muse about “having a target on my back.” Young guns talk about “being hungry.” Everybody obsesses about forces beyond their control. Shakespeare knew this turf pretty well — Marcus Aurelius would have felt at home. The song remains the same; the actual game being played is unimportant.
The results: Liberty paid $4.6 billion for F1; it now has a market cap of about $22 billion. In 2023, F1 generated about $3.2 billion in revenue, up from $2.6 the year before, most of it from promotional deals with host cities, media rights, and team sponsorships."
https://www.profgalloway.com/f1-is-at-an-inflection-point/
4. "That same feeling of inquisitive frustration was peaked by something I tweeted this week. An exceptional question that Tyler Hogge asked Marc Andreessen. A similar complicated multi-variate problem is "which part of the startup value chain is the constraint preventing us from 10x'ing the number of exceptional startups?"
First, what is an exceptional startup? At one point, Theranos, WeWork, Hopin, and FTX would have been considered exceptional startups. Do we want more of those? I think there is a mix of outcomes we want. We want more small business, even if they're lifestyle businesses. But we especially want more large outcomes that push human progress forward.
Second, what are we trying to unlock? Why do we want 10x the number of great startups? There is so much animosity against ambition, progress, technology as an industry. But the reality is that the protests of people who hate Elon Musk or hate technology is a privilege that, in large part, is enabled by (1) democratic freedoms that America affords, and (2) privilege engendered by the progress of the same technology those people now hate. But despite those protests, progress is good. And I desperately want more of it.
Finally, third, what is the bottleneck? What is the constraint that, if addressed, could unlock 10x more of what we're trying to unlock from question 2?"
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/the-levers-of-innovation
5. Important discussion on the rise of massive VC funds. This is critical for founders to understand.
Are you working with a 2% fund or 20% fund: incentives matter. Worth watching.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqT014gNssU
6. "The distortions to credit, money, asset prices, and the economy that arose under the non-system cannot be unwound quickly. A rapid reversal could probably only be accomplished via deflation and depression or, alternatively, a hyperinflation—events that would bring huge socioeconomic disruption and likely political dislocations. To prevent such an outcome, governments will increasingly see their role as managing the wealth of the nation to ensure that the imbalances of the non-system are unwound gradually.
This greater government action will make it very difficult for savers to preserve the purchasing power of their wealth. For those who wish to attempt to do so, it is time to take the radical step of preparing to benefit from a fixed-asset investment boom in the United States and across the “friend-shoring” world, which is the antithesis of what has come before.
Few investors can correctly anticipate future returns. In a time of structural change, many investors, however, do not even begin by asking the right questions to assess likely future returns. Today, the key question is whether China is already moving away from its managed exchange rate regime and thus destroying the current international monetary system. Those who ask that question have a radically different outlook for the future of credit, money, asset prices, and the economy."
7. This is a great look into a top investor’s mind.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLIFDNlWGCU
8. "Things may have changed considerably since the time of Xanthippus. Still, one thing has remained the same: even in our modern world of digital transactions, strict reporting, and ‘Know Your Customer’ laws, paying very little or no tax is not only possible, but easier to achieve than you might think.
And it won’t require dedicating all your assets to a Greek god, either.
The only main caveat? You can’t be an employee in order to achieve zero tax.
If you’re employed by someone else, the avenues to reduce what you have to pay to the state are almost non-existent. This is because, by default, your taxes will usually be taken from your paycheck and sent to the government before it ever hits your bank account."
https://anticitizen.com/p/death-and-taxes
9. "Gold is a small part of my portfolio, but that’s all I need. The bet is asymmetric. I’ve acquired gold passively over time, dollar-cost averaging into my position without ever putting a disruptively large portion of my net worth at stake. It’s a long game, not a sprint.
In a way, it’s like how I approach combat sports. Fighting has never been a primary focus of mine, but I’ve consistently invested a small amount of energy into it over the years. The results have compounded. The skill has become part of me, though it’s rarely useful. And yet, possessing it carries no downside.
Much like gold, fighting is an asset of low utility most of the time. It’s done very little for me compared to other skills like reading or writing. Over the years, there have been almost no occasions where I’ve needed to defend myself physically. Almost.
But in that rare, Black Swan event—the one-in-a-decade moment where you need it—the value of the skill skyrockets. That’s asymmetry: a small investment, low carrying cost, and an outsized return when you least expect it."
https://jaymartin.substack.com/p/id-rather-be-caught-with-it-than
10. Off season travel can be fun and more bang for your buck. Good list of European cities in Winter.
https://www.thrillist.com/travel/nation/best-european-cities-to-visit-in-winter
11. Expect this hidden covert war in Africa to continue over the next few decades. China, Russia, USA, France and UAE all have major interests there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4U0mRt64c4
12. This is a geopolitical conversation that goes very tinfoil hat. So bizarre if not entertaining.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8cBPbszHto
13. "These are the rules of the game, and they’re non-negotiable. In the Startup Hunger Games, it’s not luck that gets you out alive—it’s these principles in action. So ask yourself: Is my team strong enough? Am I agile enough? Do I have control of the numbers?
Most of you are showing up with a slingshot while someone else built a flamethrower.
In this arena, the odds are against you.
By default, you won’t survive."
https://2lr.substack.com/p/startup-hunger-games
14. Some more tin foil hat conspiracies and global macro.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJ1ajvAWAC4
15. "That is why I would say that a reputation is more aligned with the goal of building a firm. A firm is a long-term goal, not a short-term goal. A reputation is built over years. A personal brand is built through virality and can be built within days or weeks - that might not always be the case, but a reputation is never built over days."
https://embracingemergence.beehiiv.com/p/building-a-reputation-not-a-brand
16. Super valuable for founders.
https://kellblog.com/2024/11/24/five-success-principles-for-startup-founders/
17. "What we are looking at, in other words, is a complete shift of the balance of power in Eastern Europe. In the short term, Poland and the Baltics will have no choice but to pick up slack and assume a stronger position in Europe than they have in memory, as they stare down the barrel of a Russia that will only be further emboldened by a de facto triumph in Ukraine and the weakening of the American security blanket in Europe.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is facing its worst-case scenario, with the spigot of U.S. support likely to turn itself off—forcing Europe to take the reins of Ukraine’s, and its own, defense for the first time in generations."
https://www.persuasion.community/p/eastern-europe-is-in-the-crosshairs
18. Europe is not well set up for the new world of war (hybrid or kinetic).
“NATO is a defensive military alliance that thinks in terms of peacetime and wartime,” General Thierry Burkhard, France’s chief of the defense staff, told the French newspaper Le Figaro earlier this month. NATO’s tools simply aren’t designed for the gray zone in “the world of competition and contestation.”
19. "There's another reason these liquid paths are in high demand. Sure, competing for a McKinsey job isn't easy, but everything from recruiting to promotions is structured and streamlined. Job seekers and employers are cushioned from uncertainty and ambiguity in a way that only becomes obvious when you consider the counterfactual. Moreover, one can also more reliably predict future income and gain psychological security (or at least perceived security) around one’s career trajectory.
Given these hidden benefits, you'd expect these paths to be crowded. That’s one argument in favor of pursuing non linear, illiquid paths instead. You should expect “alpha” in these paths precisely because lots of smart, conscientious people are terrified of uncertainty. Maybe you can afford to be less of those things if you're willing to be brave?
In financial markets, illiquid assets often command a premium - investors accept lower liquidity for the prospect of higher returns. I can't prove empirically that this is replicated in human capital markets but that's a reasonable prior."
https://www.optimaloutliers.com/p/liquid-vs-illiquid-careers
20. "This and similar adventures by Moscow in the post-Soviet space do not bode well, from a Ukrainian standpoint, for negotiations with the Kremlin. Ukrainians, as well as other nations and ethnicities of the former Tsarist and Soviet empires, have, over the centuries, accumulated many bitter experiences with Russian imperialism, which is—once again—Moscow’s barely disguised ideology.
These historical lessons advise not only Kyiv but also Helsinki, Tallinn, Riga, Vilnius, Warsaw, or Prague that Ukraine must reach, at least, partial victory before entering meaningful negotiations with Russia. Only when facing military disaster will Moscow engage in a genuine search for a diplomatic solution that may be acceptable to Kyiv and have the potential to hold."
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-diplomacy-can%E2%80%99t-end-ukraine-war-209268
21. Such a great convo if you want to understand the Defense-tech drone space. These guys know what they are talking about.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nelwxvDCUks
22. "Finally, remember that while covenants are black-and-white tests, what to do when they’re breached is not. The debt provider has a lot of different cards to play, and the vast majority of debt providers are not in the “loan to own” business, so they have no desire to take control of your company. The cards they choose to play will be not only a function of the business situation, but of existing relationships and people.
Which is why I always say that your CFO should be the customer testimonial on your debt provider’s homepage. Who wants to call that loan?"
23. A very fascinating conversation with Marc Andreessen of A16Z. So many interesting takes on American culture, government and regulations & the incoming Trump admin.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ye8MOfxD5nU
24. "Between them, Sony and Kadokawa already control ten anime studios that together produce roughly a third of Japan’s annual anime output, but they currently work with many other companies. A merger could shut out these rivals, resulting in even longer wait times to bring non-Sony-Kadokawa series to screens. Anime News Network, itself a Kadokawa subsidiary, is cheerily predicting this will result in “less anime in the future, but of better quality,” but the reality is that it would take several multi-year production cycles to really assess the impact on Japan’s content machine.
One thing is for certain: if the merger happens, it might mean a more corporate approach to anime-making going forward. Both Sony and Kadokawa are publicly traded firms, but many of Japan’s content megahouses – Shueisha, Kodansha, and Shogakukan, among them -- are family owned. This is a unique feature of the Japanese entertainment landscape. In his recent (Japanese language) book All About the Manga Business, industry veteran Takeshi Kikuchi argues that privately-held companies are key to the growth of manga (and by extension anime), for they are not beholden to shareholders to deliver immediate growth, and can take a longer-term view towards nurturing talent."
https://blog.pureinventionbook.com/p/clash-of-the-titans
25. This is not good for the UK. British ag stuck between rock and hard place.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZLC8LcCaB8
26. "Ghosting refers to a sudden ending of active communication without any apparent warning or explanation. If you had an ongoing back-and-forth email thread with someone and they suddenly stop replying, that’s ghosting. And it’s unequivocally not culturally acceptable. Anywhere.
But what if you reach out to someone with a brand new request?
In Silicon Valley, it is culturally acceptable to not respond to such an email as a form of “no” (even if you know the person)."
https://chrisneumann.com/archives/in-silicon-valley-no-answer-is-an-answer
27. Another excellent episode on what’s up in tech. BG2, the best show online right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7bJtS7koQM
28. Incredible breakdown of Microstrategy's brilliant BTC strategy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KFUIhJ9ntlI
29. "When hegemony is broken, conflict returns. At worst, the strong take what they can and the weak suffer what they must. At best, innovation returns. When there is no dominant power to ensure peace, there is also no bureaucracy to ensure stagnation. No global hall monitor. The same environment that produced Sparta and Athens––one of iteration and competition––is allowed to flourish.
Hegemony brings peace, competition brings innovation.
If America slips from total hegemon to standard first power, we’ll see a much more dynamic global environment. Ideally, the US will rise to the challenge and become more competitive as well. Decentralized currency means small network states can operate with a globally valid currency––no confederate dollars. Startup founders are now using LLMs to run companies with 2 people instead of 20. The same may be true of countries."
https://americanreformer.org/2024/06/rise-of-the-dutch-republics/
30. Incredible track record but now focusing on defense-tech here.
Europe has a steep curve to overcome to get themselves technology and defense industry sovereign.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtcCqAr6Z7o
31. Really sharp kid here. Mach Industries is on the forefront of this wave of defense-related startups.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G5l-VLzpT1M&t=1411s
32. Good stuff to know!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqR_fDGTAUw&t=229s
33. A deep conversation with one of the most unique, curious and original thinkers & investors in Silicon Valley. So many great insights here. "Embrace random."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_SQ_myzmV_Q
34. "Smaller engineering teams can build more comprehensive software products faster and cheaper. Companies like Linear get to tens of millions in ARR with only tens of employees.
The positive consequence is that specific opportunities requiring considerable software development investments before getting to market will be easier to seize. The negative is that other markets will become increasingly competitive.
Beyond “pure software” opportunity and, as we wrote in this blog published earlier this year, we (and many others) now believe that specific repetitive tasks humans perform will be partially or fully automated through LLMs.
People are attacking this opportunity by building AI-first service businesses from the ground up or buying, merging, and automating existing businesses.
I heard of multiple roll-ups in accounting, healthcare, and customer service on both coasts of the US (none in Europe). Another exciting thing I encountered was a prominent film production company raising money to train a foundation model on their film archives."
https://medium.com/point-nine-news/some-thoughts-on-software-1c43db57c40f
35. The best conversation on the "innards of Silicon Valley"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2E-V6Boguo
36. Love this conversation. Making competence & results in government important again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GIjx0_8yXk
37. Good insights into Poland and its growing geopolitical & military heft. Makes sense as they are the next target of Russia after Ukraine.
Russia has partitioned Poland many times in the past history.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5kMsKWSIf4
38. "In the early days, throwaway comments might not seem like a big deal. But as the company scales, founders need to be deliberate in communicating their ideas and recommendations, ensuring their intentions are understood. A clear distinction between casual brainstorming and actionable directives helps the team prioritize effectively and avoid wasted effort."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/11/30/beware-of-throwaway-comments-as-a-founder/
Surviving the Storm: A Rough Couple of Years
It’s winter break and I have had some time for reflection. Which brings me to this passage from Murakami’s “Kafka on the Shore” that caught my attention (h/t to Dylan O’Sullivan for surfacing this):
“And once the storm is over, you won’t remember how you made it through, how you managed to survive. You won’t even be sure the storm is really over. But one thing is certain. When you come out of the storm, you won’t be the same person who walked in. That’s what this storm’s all about.”
My god, what a rough couple of years. Lots of ups and downs. Personal, family, national and geopolitically. But here we stand. Shifting to the wind and water that bash us around. I don’t think we are out of the storm yet but remember the Charles Darwin quote: “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is most adaptable to change”
This storm will end sometime and most of us will be better off having gone through it, as painful as it has been. And I think for most of us, while we are banged up physically and emotionally, we are definitely stronger, smarter and hopefully wiser.
Coming Home: Men and Emotions
I recall this hilarious but insightful comedic series called Deep Thoughts by Jack Handy:
“It takes a big man to cry, it takes an even bigger man to laugh at that man.” I still laugh about this when I read it. It’s also a signal that at that time, men weren’t supposed to show emotion. It’s definitely outdated now.
Being a tough guy meant you kept a stiff upper lip and kept all your emotions bottled up inside. Well, most emotions except anger. Or maybe that was my take growing up. Unfortunately Asian immigrant families reflect this. They are pretty cold culturally. The rage is real though.
What I’ve learned is that bottling up your emotions, especially negative ones, only causes them to come out in very unexpected and disruptive ways later. I would even say explosively. You can never hide from it, you just postpone it. Sometimes for years or decades in my case.
I’ve been able to transmute much of this into my career, business and fitness. These activities take the edge off it. But learning to let it out is pretty critical.
I remember when I was moving to Taiwan in January of 1997. It was after a lovely Christmas at home with my parents. I was 23 years old. My father took me to the airport and while at the airport I literally cried my eyes out. Very publicly. Also very uncharacteristically I would say.
But looking back at that moment, I think I sensed that I would never be the same. Things would never be the same and there was no coming home. I was moving away and saying goodbye to my childhood, my friends and most importantly my family.
I would gain new eyes and experiences and I wasn’t sure where it would lead me. It was part fear of the unknown and excitement for a new future. It was also grief. I needed to grieve for my old self and old life to open up space for the new one.
What an adventure it has been since then. I transited through Tokyo Narita where I spent a whole night at the bar hanging out with my dear friend Michiko. Catching up and talking about life. It was such a fun night. And then my flight and the entry into my amazing life in Taiwan that next day. I vividly remember these moments in my life. Sadness and pain usually and eventually leads to personal growth & joy.
So my point is don’t be afraid of your emotions. Don’t suppress them. They are signals. Examine them. Embrace them and don’t be afraid of expressing them. Emotions are a tool and guide to a better life and decisions. Learn to use it.
Random Stories From Backpacking in Prague: The Kindness of Strangers
I’ve always been wary of people. Especially as an immigrant kid in Vancouver who never quite fit in. Remember that Canada during the 70-80s was not overrun with Asians like it is now. I grew up being called “Mr Kung Fu man”.
Sure I was friendly and social and hung out with everyone. But I had so many interests that were seen as weird or uncool. Collecting and reading lots of books, especially history/sci-fi & westerns, loving Japanime and comic books. I was kind of a geek and hated most sports except for the martial arts I took. So I think many people were surprised that I ended up doing a long backpack trip after graduating from University.
I spent half a year traveling through Europe and used Prague as a base for 2 months while I explored the region. I took this wariness on people with me on the trip. Especially after I got attacked by some neo-Nazi skinhead locals. That knocked the Canadian naivety out of me.
But in reflection, overall I had great experiences with people during that trip. Especially on that first leg in Prague. Many of them were super random.
There was an European expat guy I met on flight, who kindly drove me from the airport to the subway station because he knew I had no money.
There was the Chinese mother and daughter living in Prague who saw me by myself in the park and invited me over for a home cooked dinner and showed me around the city. This became a very regular occurrence during my entire time there.
There was a group of 5 older and much bigger Australian guys who took me under their wing after they heard of the skinhead attack on me. They were protective of me for the 2 weeks we hung out and it was especially meaningful to me as I was feeling quite unsafe at that time. We had a great time hanging out, drinking, partying and camping in the forests of the Czech Republic. Maybe this is why I like Aussies so much to this day.
Or the night me and a few other residents ended up consoling a fellow backpacker, a young Indian American girl who had her family heirloom and stuff stolen by a fellow backpacker. We took her for drinks and food and stayed up late talking with her and trying to make her feel better.
I’ve experienced countless little and not so little kindnesses by people during my time there and since then too.
It’s interesting how quickly bonds and tribes form, even in a nebulous community of foreign backpackers in a youth hostel. People are social creatures. We are hardwired for this.
And what I found is that most people are good and want to do good. I’ve traveled all over the world in the 28+ years since then and this experience seems to hold true in most places, situations, organizations and countries I’ve been in. This gives me hope in our world and future.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads December 22nd, 2024
“Alone we can do so little. Together we can do so much.” – Helen Keller
Interesting take on Ukraine and geopolitics under Trump. I guess we will see.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQDCRLJHRTc
2. This is very educational, disturbing but an educational take on geopolitics right now. It's gonna be hairy for the next 2-3 years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEFuY-2YRqE
3. Good way to categorize where to live in your life (cities and countries). This is pretty useful.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-uAdMll70sc
4. "Are you necessary?
To establish necessity means that you fill a very specific need in completing or enhancing the customer’s current plan. That you address a very clear gap in their technology or strategy, a gap that is costing them time, money, competitive advantage or all three. That by paying $2 to add your services to the mix they will see a return of $20 – and that you’ll be able to show the math on how you plan to deliver on that promise."
https://upstreamgroup.com/the-drift/are-you-necessary
5. "To conclude, America doesn’t need some hastily stitched-together new ‘mythos’ or ideal, some pastiche of foregone antiquities or factitious symbolisms akin to Kwanzaa or Festivus. After all, it was the ‘left’ which went down that troubled route, attempting to confect some new national mythos with a host of artificial celebrations like Pride Month, which slowly grew into a kind of ecumenical monster. No, what America needs is to be shorn of its managerialist throttling to let society breathe naturally, and expand its own stifled vision forward, in an organic way.
It’s the only real way to do culture: seed the ground, keep off the locusts, then let grow what may—otherwise, you’re just playing god, and a fall awaits all those of such hubris."
https://darkfutura.substack.com/p/staring-ahead-from-the-crossroads
6. This is a fun take on geopolitics, global macro and crypto from one of the most interesting individuals around. (he is a great writer too).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iz0tazs3Uqc
7. Important conversation with the CEO of Anduril Industry on the defense industry and why we need to reform the Defense department and Reindustrialize.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKUmvIVTyz8
8. One of the most important conversations if you want to understand how the CCP took advantage of globalization, the World Bank and why they are a malevolent competitor via IP theft, incredible leverage on our business people & Hollywood & the active support of many of our enemies.
All because of our blindness and naivety. This is highly disturbing. Thank goodness people are slowly waking up to this. Time to get serious.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MqZNy5fSDxU
9. Startup confessional, words of truth from founders. Get out of the Tech VC bubble.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1TFqODW7rIk
10. "This is a hot Cold War II. The West has empirically lost deterrence. We must respond to this emergency to regain it.
We have a peer adversary: China. “Near-Peer” is a shibboleth, a euphemism to avoid the embarrassment of acknowledging we have peers when we were once peerless. In World War II, America was the best at mass production. Today that distinction belongs to our adversary. America’s national security requires a robust industrial base, or it will lose the next war and plunge the world into darkness under authoritarian regimes.
In the current environment, American industries can’t produce a minimum line of ships, subs, munitions, aircraft, and more. It takes a decade or two to deliver new major weapon systems at scale. If we’re in a hot war, we would only have days worth of ammunition and weapons on hand. Even more alarming is our lack of capacity and capability to rapidly repair and regenerate our weapon systems.
Given the vast sums we have spent on defense in these decades of Pax Americana, it would be reasonable to wonder: what went wrong?"
11. Master class in thinking about the future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Zg--ouGl7c
12. Luke Belmar dropping knowledge and wisdom. A look into the future of money.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iHYyEhjKtmg&t=1s
13. "When discussing the dynamics surrounding Taiwan today, Beijing is already waging what it would call the “three warfares”: legal warfare, psychological warfare and public discourse warfare, which is information warfare that’s designed to create a sense of futility, a sense of cynicism about democracy, a sense that resistance is futile.
So the war, from Beijing’s perspective, has already started. They’re not yet using kinetic warfare. There are several more steps they could take short of that, including a quarantine of the island. They are building up to doing what I would call a “flash quarantine”, which would be a short-term quarantine to prove or demonstrate that they can exert jurisdiction over Taiwan’s near shore waters. Then they could, over time, decide to impose a much broader quarantine or even a blockade, which is technically an act of war. That said, I don’t think a full-blown blockade is likely until Beijing is ready to wage a full-blown war.
My views are designed to prevent war, not to invite miscalculation by Beijing. I want Beijing to be crystal clear on where the US stands. I want them to be crystal clear that we have the capacity to win a war over Taiwan and that we have, well within our grasp, the means to improve our capacity relative to Beijing in terms of the military balance."
https://mekongreview.com/the-hardliner/
14. An important discussion to understand what’s happening with supply chains, logistics and Globalization 2.0.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKsq258SkQQ
15. "The NATO Innovation Fund (NIF), a €1bn vehicle backed by 24 NATO allies to invest in defence and deeptech startups, is already seeing a shakeup in its upper ranks: founding partner Thorsten Claus and managing partner Andrea Traversone have both left the fund just over a year after it launched."
https://sifted.eu/articles/nato-innovation-fund-partner-exit-news
16. Didn't know Dave Frankel was a successful founder in South Africa before he started top VC fund Founder Collective.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHhLOgEiLnw
17. "Having the most advanced intelligence capabilities—I think, maybe like our Navy, we’re second best now—is useless if our most senior leaders cannot understand a threat that has been fighting us for over a year. I’m not sure what is worse, the failure to push information to senior leaders, or the senior leaders not pulling it to them.
Either way, another example of systemic institutional malfunction."
https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/behold-the-red-sea-clown-show
18. "If you want to grow faster, first you need to understand why you aren’t growing faster already.
To do so, I like to use the simplest possible growth framework which considers four factors:
Prospects. How many potential customers do we reach every day/week/month?
Conversion. What percentage of potential customers do we convert into customers?
Value. How much do we make from each customer?
Retention. How many customers do we lose every day/week/month?
Each one of these factors is critical to growth. Often, when you think about growth you see the need to improve all of these factors. That might be true, but you can’t fix everything at once!"
https://www.breakingpoint.tech/p/a-simple-growth-framework
19. "Red tribe politics comprises many superempowered individuals with highly evolved digital ledgers capable of overwriting the digital ledgers of their followers. In most cases, they overwrite intuition (often experienced as a feeling) for how to perceive reality or truth. This transferrence/overwrite allows superempowered individuals to mobilize their networked followers into action (Larmarkian evolution).
Blue tribe politics: a massively co-curated ledger that all networked participants must adopt (encouraged, trained, and coerced). Blue tribe members are mobilized through empathy triggers, another process of overwriting (empathy is a rapid and holistic mental modeling of the victim; it’s not sympathy) that spurs them into action."
https://johnrobb.substack.com/p/red-tribe-dynamics
20. "The question is: are the tradeoffs you are making today appropriate for you? Is your attention focused on the right things? Are you maximizing your wealth at the expense of your health, your family, or your time?
With Bitcoin, U.S. stocks, and many other asset classes hitting new all-time
highs, it’s easy to get caught up with what’s happening in financial markets. There is an overwhelming sense of FOMO that can make you feel like you need to make a change. Trust me, I’ve been there before.
But, what you may have failed to notice is how little these events will actually impact your life in the long run. How much will the price of Bitcoin today affect your life in 20 years? What about Nvidia? How about gold? The answer is practically nothing. A rounding error at best.
But do you know what will impact your life in 20 years? How you spend your time, how you treat your body, and who you spend your time with."
https://ofdollarsanddata.com/the-things-you-cant-buy/
21. "AI will change the world. It just won't happen as fast and as suddenly as many people fear.
Think of this essay as playing out over many decades, not next year or next week.
While people are predicting AGI is just around the corner, anyone who works with AI agents like my team does knows just how stupid these models really are and how limited they are in the real world. We live in a weird world where AI is smarter than many PhDs and yet dumber than your cat. They can tell you about nuclear physics and speak 100 languages fluently and yet they lack any and all common sense and they can't seem to get tasks done without going completely off the rails.
This confuses a lot of people. If it can speak a 100 languages it must be smart. But it's just dead wrong. It's only part of the story. These models are smart and getting smarter but they're still dumb too.
Change is coming and it’s coming relatively fast and it will only accelerate.
For first time in history we have a technology that can do just about anything. Just like us.
We're about to see a Cambrian explosion of intelligence.
And life will never be the same."
https://danieljeffries.substack.com/p/the-middle-path-for-ai
22. "Perhaps this is the right framework to think about the future of education and software development (as well as all the other functions impacted by AI). Will AI lead to millions of new students sitting in virtual classrooms scribbling notes as professors opine on a chalkboard (as was imagined with MOOCs)? Probably not. Will AI lead to millions of new software developers as they exist today? No, I don’t think so.
(That doesn’t mean the coding copilot companies are uninteresting, by the way. There will still be millions of software developers out there.) But it seems undeniable that there will be a platform that leverages the ease of code generation as a first-order primitive (just like Instagram did with the smartphone camera) to make software creation truly ubiquitous."
https://newsletter.angularventures.com/p/cameras-code-and-creation
23. "Attitudes about San Francisco have reversed since the pandemic, when remote work and doom-loop fears drove white-collar workers out of the region. As excitement over AI crescendoed last year, many observers rolled back prognostications that the tech capital of the world was dead. Entrepreneurs boomeranged back, giving up lower taxes and spacious quarters in Oregon and Montana for a jam-packed schedule of nightly hackathons, demos, and networking events in San Francisco.
Now, a new cohort of techies is arriving: founders from outside the U.S. Like their predecessors in previous tech booms, they say San Francisco is second to none as a location for building their companies. These founders are themselves a bellwether that the AI boom is well underway, with San Francisco as the epicenter."
https://sfstandard.com/2024/11/19/ai-startup-founders-international-donald-trump/
24. Lots of good insights here on global macro, personal finance, crypto investing and how to thrive in the next 5 years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyhhwVJB9Z4
25. "AI is ushering us into a brave new world of Outcome-Based Pricing. This whole concept of “units of work completed” is way different from charging for access to software, which is what we’ve traditionally done. It moves the burden from the customer having to extract value from a tool to the vendor delivering measurable results.
Let’s consider some analogies using the gym world.
Planet Fitness: A subscription model. You’re charged the same amount each month for access to the gym. They don’t care if you actually use the treadmill or not. In fact, they hope you don’t show up because it allows them to sign up even more deadbeat members based on expected capacity. The success of the business is based on people paying for something they don’t fully use—CFOs know this all too well from seat-based pricing in software.
Barry’s Bootcamp: A usage-based model. You’re charged (an extraordinary amount) per class. The pro here is that you don’t pay if you don’t use the services. The con? You could theoretically show up, pay an arm and a leg, and just roll around on the mats for 45 minutes without breaking a sweat (guilty as charged). It’s aligned with usage, but it’s still not connected to actual success.
If AI Were a Gym: This would be an outcome-based model. You’d be charged based on actual improvements in fitness. For example, this could be measured using a proxy like muscle-to-fat ratio or an increase in how much you can lift. It’s not about whether you attended the gym or how many classes you took, but whether you achieved your fitness goals."
https://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/the-age-of-outcome-based-pricing
26. A very sober view on Trump, geopolitics & energy. I don't think his isolationist views are correct but Doomberg looks at the world & facts coldly which is helpful.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXSEa4kTl64
27. A very topical discussion on what’s up at the edge of the internet. Educational and entertaining. All vibes, no facts! :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DldBuNHF_70
28. Lots of great advice here for startup founders. "Every startup is a sh-tshow"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ViQ3Espcm3U
29. "How is the USA doing?
All you have to do is look at the mismanagement of this century—from Iraq to Afghanistan to China’s rise—to see that this generation of national leadership has failed the nation. They were given the gift of victory in the Cold War and squandered it.
In the last week we have two events that are not-too-subtle warnings that whatever reserve of respect we may have remaining on the international stage, it is thinning to depleted.
You can dismiss these two events if you wish, but if you open your mind and think it through, you can only come to the opinion that our nation is not in a very good place.
Even 10 years ago, these events would not have happened."
https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/in-case-youve-missed-it-the-usa-is
30. "The first step to becoming a warrior happens in the mind. It’s willing yourself to suffer. To become hard. To maintain iron discipline in a world that goes out of its way to make you harmless and soft."
https://resavager.com/p/becoming-a-warrior-in-the-kingdom
31. "But we are also confronted here with a security crisis, and our political classes and their parasites are completely ignorant of how to deal with such crises, or even how to understand them. During the Cold War, governments were forced to confront security issues regularly: often, they were also domestic political issues. Security issues were also objectively important, as East and West glared at each other across a militarised border, with the possibility of nuclear annihilation never very far away.
None of that is true now. NATO summits still happen of course, but until recently they have been concerned with peacekeeping deployments, counter-insurgency operations in Afghanistan and the endless succession of new members and partnership initiatives. No fundamental security decisions of any kind have been needed in the political lifetime of any current head of a NATO (or EU) country, until now.
This is the more unfortunate because a security crisis is a highly complex thing, and involves a whole series of levels from the political down to the military/tactical. And a security crisis is just about impossible to manage multilaterally: the only remotely comparable example I can think off is the 1999 Kosovo crisis, when a much smaller NATO effectively stopped working after the first week, and came quite close to breaking down completely.
I’ve pointed out before that NATO has no strategy for Ukraine, and no real operational plan. It just has a series of ad hoc initiatives, glued together by vague aspirations unrelated to real life, and by the hope that something will turn up. In turn, this is because no individual NATO nation is in a better state: our current western political leadership has never had to develop these skills.
But it’s actually worse than that: not having developed these skills, not having advisers who have developed these skills, they cannot actually understand what the Russians are doing and how and why they are doing it. Western leaders are like spectators who do not know the rules of Chess or Go trying to work out who is winning."
https://aurelien2022.substack.com/p/a-strange-defeat
32. "This shift is reshaping our cities in unexpected ways. When the internet first emerged, experts predicted the "death of distance" and the decline of cities. Instead, the opposite occurred – cities became more vital than ever as centers of innovation and creativity. But now we're seeing another twist: even as the AI boom makes San Francisco's tech companies more valuable than ever, its offices sit half-empty. The relationship between economic activity and physical space is breaking down.
The new economy, Poleg argues, looks less like a factory production line and more like Hollywood. Success is unpredictable and often binary – massive hits coexist with total failures, with little middle ground. Just as no one can reliably predict which movies will succeed, no one anticipated that ChatGPT would reach 100 million users faster than any product in history. Value appears suddenly and compounds dramatically, while traditional metrics of input and output become less relevant.
This has profound implications for how we think about real estate and urban development. Our cities were built for an industrial economy – one where masses of people worked similar jobs on similar schedules in predictable patterns. Our zoning laws, tax systems, and infrastructure all assume this kind of stability and uniformity. But that world is disappearing.
Instead, we're seeing the emergence of what Poleg calls a "nonlinear economy." Work is becoming more specialized and unpredictable. Success increasingly depends on matching exactly the right talent with the right opportunity at the right moment. Companies are discovering they can collaborate effectively across multiple locations, accessing global talent pools rather than requiring everyone to be in the same building."
https://www.drorpoleg.com/nobody-knows-anything/
33. "But the new world isn’t without its challenges. There is so much about the old world of tech investing that needs to be unlearned. The old world is dominated by legacy tech networks that lack the relationships and industry insights to serve the new world’s customers. Legacy best practices for SaaS aren’t the same in a world where services are being sold – for better or worse, the operating models are going to be incredibly different, requiring a nuanced understanding of the customers needs and how they buy.
This equally impacts the nuance that investors will require to successfully invest and support these companies. With new margin structures, investors will have to properly understand the difference between value creation and revenue growth (hint: revenue multiples never mattered much, but mean even less now), comping a business to its category and its comparative unit economic performance.
This looks very different from the traditional “growth at all costs” methods of venture and likely needs to borrow from other methods of investing to better align with how these companies would be valued in the public markets."
https://newsletter.equal.vc/p/the-new-world-for-entrepreneurs
34. Another great episode here. Best convo on tech investing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SewIKjE1Lec&t=228s
35. This is a good overview on semiconductors.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GkuxNg-j6uI&t=17s
36. Must listen to. Taking a big swing and not making it, getting back up again. But this is what makes Silicon Valley work.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nvoaEuSmKM0&t=1186s
37. This is an interview I will rewatch many times. How to live a dope life. So many great nuggets of entrepreneurial insight. Shaan has crushed it and it's been fun watching his rise.
He shares all his learnings of his career: "Do cool nerdy stuff with smart people"
Elemental: Family, Duty and Sacrifice
I was assigned to watch Disney Pixar’s “Elemental” animated movie by our family therapist as I was trying to salvage the trainwreck of my marriage and family life. I honestly was wondering why the heck?
But I am glad I did watch it. Like all Pixar movies, it’s beautifully written and based on Director Peter Sohn’s experience growing up as a son of immigrants in New York City. In a city where fire, water, land, and air residents live together, a fiery young woman and a go-with-the-flow guy discover something elemental: how much they actually have in common. It deals with ethnic xenophobia and the immigrant experience, cross generational conflict as well as cross ethnic relationships. It’s a wonderful story with some dark undertones.
Ember the fire resident is set to inherit her fathers store but cannot control her temper (kind of like me). But she must, if she wants to take over the store, as this is her fathers dream. Like many immigrant parents, they sacrificed everything to start over and give their children better lives. And this weight of responsibility falls very heavily on the next generation.
Ember says in a moment of weakness: “I don’t think I do want to run the shop. Okay? That’s what my temper has been trying to tell me. I’m trapped. Do you know what’s crazy? Even when I was a kid, I would pray to the blue flame to be good enough to fill my father’s shoes one day.
But I never asked what I wanted to do. Deep down I knew it didn’t matter. Because the only way to repay a sacrifice so big is by sacrificing your life too.”
But in the end, she admits her true feelings to her dad, who responds rather surprisingly: “The shop was never the dream. You were the dream.”
At the end of the day, that’s what most parents want is just the best for their kids. But they don’t really do a good job sharing warm or positive feelings with their kids. Unfortunately Asian immigrant parents use shame as their main tool. And any love or praise tends to be conditional on performance at school or for good behavior. It certainly works well to drive performance for most Asian immigrant kids. I should note my parents were fairly open minded compared to other Asian/ Taiwanese Immigrant parents, they told me I could do whatever I wanted, versus being pushed into medicine or engineering or the sciences. The only thing they demanded was that I had to be the best at it.
I guess this is what my therapist wanted me to view through another lens and animated kids movies work well here. Gave me a lot to think about.
I write a lot about intergenerational trauma and my issues with parents. Well, really more my mom, who pushed me as hard (harsh) as her mom pushed her. But i will say, now being a father myself, this Sh-t is damn hard and my parents did their best. I get that now.
Like the character Ember’s parents, mine sacrificed everything to come to North America and have a better life for us here in Canada/USA. If I had grown up in the strict and conformist culture of Taiwan, I would probably have ended up as a school drop out and become a gangster (seriously).
My petty rebellions in a much more tolerant and forgiving Canada led to a pretty damn interesting international business career so far. And for that, I will forever be grateful to my parents, to Canada as well as to my present home America.