Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads April 13th, 2025
“Technology is a useful servant but a dangerous master.'' -- Christian Lous Lange
"Essentially, the history of warfare can be divided into two distinct epochs. The first epoch, which lasted from the Battle of Kadesh to the Siege of Vicksburg (3,137 years), was an epoch of armies that stood up straight in formation. The second epoch, our current epoch, is the epoch of the empty battlefield in which soldiers spend most of their time trying to conceal themselves from the enemy.
The war in Ukraine has demonstrated that the era of the empty battlefield is intensifying. The most powerful coefficient on the battlefield today is the nexus of modern ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) and precision strike systems. This power is brought to bear through drones of all types – spotter drones surveilling the battlefield and strike drones which include First Person View (FPV) units. The ability of both Ukrainian and Russian forces to survey and strike the battlefield is so precise that they can find and hit enemy vehicles and positions at particular points of vulnerability: footage of FPV drones flying through doorways and windows of enemy strongpoints is now everywhere.
On modern battlefields, hiding is now a critical skill. Anything (or anyone) that can be seen can be hit and destroyed. Blanketing electronic warfare, which can deny airspace to enemy drones, remains far away, and until it arrives, the ability to win decisive victories has become very difficult. Armies are forced to disperse and conceal themselves to avoid enemy surveillance and strike systems and, therefore, find it difficult to gain momentum.
This reality was witnessed early in the war through Ukraine’s successes in using American rocket systems to strike Russian ammunition dumps – in response, Russia dispersed and concealed its supply depots. Dispersion has also now taken place with manpower and vehicles – despite the large numbers of personnel mobilized on both sides, assault actions are regularly conducted by relatively small groups (often company-sized or smaller) as these are the only forces that can be safely organized to attack."
https://im1776.com/lessons-from-ukraine/
2. "Zelensky is in a vise. Washington is no longer reliable – or even predictable – Europe is scrambling but under-gunned, and Putin’s dream of parading through Kyiv’s Maidan (Independence Square) is costing both Russia and Ukraine a generation of men.
Kyiv Post’s sources say Zelensky’s team is “regrouping,” but the vibe on the ground is grim. Ukraine’s leader can wait for Europe’s rhetoric to become reality, roll the dice on a settlement that stinks of surrender, or fight on with whatever’s left in the tank. None of it’s pretty, and none of it’s guaranteed. But if I’ve learned anything from war, it’s this: when the chips are down, you don’t fold – you bluff, you brawl, or you bleed. Zelensky’s still standing. For now."
https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/48156
3. "Entrepreneurs would do well to think through the “magic moment” in their products—what wows people, what makes someone excitedly share their experience with a friend, and how they can reduce the time and effort it takes for a new user to encounter that magic moment. Magic moments, just as they sound, are incredible experiences. Even to this day, I vividly remember the magic moment from decades ago when I believed a driver could control the stereo in his car with his voice."
https://davidcummings.org/2025/03/08/unforgettable-tech-magic-moments/
4. "Now, imagine you — yes, you — created this entire universe for yourself. Like entering a maze in an amusement park, you’ve imposed these constraints for the fun of it, to create a challenge, an adventure. Why else would you do it?
Now, let’s take it further. Imagine a brilliant sun — your higher self — shining above a layer of clouds. The sun is always there, always radiating, but you can’t see it because of the cloud cover. The trick is learning how to poke holes in the clouds, letting more light through, until one day the clouds dissolve entirely and you merge with that higher self.
This is a profound shift — where you step through the illusion and start playing life instead of suffering through it."
https://newsletter.sanjaysays.co/p/feeling-tired-and-run-down-9179ee5c5ef9d381
5. Net net: it's just going to be more volatile in Ukraine and the world in general with Trump.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDf8YBuRIvU
6. Pragmatism matters. Europe's naivety has been deadly to their populace and their own interests.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eh1zmDi0qN0
7. These guys are a--holes but I try to understand the opposing narratives in the Russia-Ukraine war.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuxMZmMOt3M
8. You have to break out of your own narrative bubble. Factually though China is kicking our a-s. I wouldn't invest in China personally but it seems to be an undervalued market.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SwHnJn0ubYs
9. Understanding the economic revolution in China right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbpMPzCJetU
10. Understanding Thrive Capital, one of the top multi stage VC firms around.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIIQR_FlKnw&t=45s
11. "As an investor, there is a play here - be open to things that violate the tenets of the hardware lottery. If we fund new ideas, even if they take a bit longer to generate economics, we could create the really breakthrough technologies that will get us to AGI. Of course, given the current assumption by many that AGI is just around the corner, maybe that is a difficult bet to take."
https://investinginai.substack.com/p/the-hardware-lottery-and-the-future
12. "The most successful AI M&A strategies combine small, mid-sized, and large-scale acquisitions to create a diversified approach to AI adoption.
✅ Small acquisitions ($5M-$50M) provide technical talent and niche AI capabilitiesat a relatively low cost.
✅ Mid-sized acquisitions ($50M-$500M) offer fully developed AI solutions that can be integrated into existing operations.
✅ Large-scale acquisitions ($500M+) allow companies to establish themselves as market leaders in AI-driven transformation.
The AI race is already underway, and the winners will be those that make decisive moves now. Companies that integrate AI early—whether through acquisition, strategic investment, or partnerships—will be best positioned to lead in an increasingly AI-driven economy."
https://startupstechvc.beehiiv.com/p/buy-now-build-later-the-smartest-ai-play-for-fortune-500s
13. "Claude Code re-anchors what I expect to pay for software and the delivery time of that software, perhaps unrealistically. If it’s just a few minutes to build an Android app, how long could a fully functioning software product take to build? It might not be accurate to linearly extrapolate simple apps, build time to complex enterprise apps. But it makes me wonder.
Imagine applying this strategy across half to three quarters of a white-collar workforce & using another AI to label each action an employee takes with AI and aggregating that across an organization."
https://tomtunguz.com/cost-of-this/
14. Super fun episode this week with the boys at NIA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UxWZiyLU_G4
15. "Increased demand caused by the prospect of European rearmament has sent shares in German defence companies surging as they ramp up production.
Against this backdrop, some car factories in Germany are being repurposed to make weapons as European manufacturers battle a market that has failed to recover to its pre-Covid levels."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/volkswagen-open-building-military-equipment-160011493.html
16. "Current estimates put the entire force necessary to replace the US contingent in Europe at 330,000 troops or 55 brigades. That will be a stretch. At present Germany can barely muster a single combat-ready division. But getting to a place in which large European states are able to competently defend themselves does not require unleashing the demons of World War II. It requires returning to something more like the normality of Europe in the age of NATO deterrence in the 1970s and 1980s."
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-360-war-economies-disentangling
17. "However, Moore and Pasarell couldn’t stomach seeing their event move to a different location, so they brought the deal to an unlikely source: Oracle founder Larry Ellison.
Ellison started playing tennis in the early 2000s after pickup basketball became too hard on his body. The billionaire received private lessons at his residence five days a week, and his instructor just so happened to be a mutual friend of Raymond Moore.
This is how Larry Ellison ended up buying the Indian Wells tournament for $100 million. He obviously has a lot of money and could afford it, but this wasn’t just a passion project. Ellison had been attending the tournament for several years and wanted to run it like a legitimate business, reinvesting profits back into the fan and player experience to build something truly special — and that’s precisely what he did."
https://huddleup.substack.com/p/how-a-billionaire-built-the-worlds
18. "Canada faces an urgent choice: continue relying on unpredictable partners and risk strategic irrelevance, or build genuine capability for autonomous action. The path forward demands recalibration of Canadian security thinking and expansion of capabilities in three domains: special operations forces, offensive cyber operations, and intelligence collection.
We must undertake a generational project to build these capabilities—not to repudiate alliances but as insurance against their uncertainty. For a middle power with limited resources, the most efficient path to strategic autonomy lies in asymmetric capabilities that provide disproportionate strategic effects relative to their cost. Special forces, cyber operations, and intelligence align with Canada's comparative advantages: a highly educated population, advanced technological base, diverse society, and reputation as a constructive international actor."
https://suthakamal.substack.com/p/canadas-moment-building-strategic
19. "All the pushups in the world haven’t prevented the vaunted Russian military from turning in a decidedly lackluster performance in Ukraine. But to the American right, perceptions and posturing and vibes are often more important than numbers and statistics. Russia gives off strength, so it must be strong.
And to the American right, strength is everything in international affairs. It’s a dog-eat-dog world out there, and concepts like the rules-based international order or international law are laughable. If Russia and Europe are to fight, Trump and company want to bet on the side with the shirtless pushups.
Of all the reasons why Trump has abandoned Europe, this is the only one that the region can do anything about. Europeans are not going to give up their fundamental values, and they won’t be able to disabuse Trump of his dreams of partnering with Russia and pretending it’s the 19th century. But what Europe can do is to look strong. It can beef up its defenses by a huge amount, implement universal military training, build up its nuclear arsenal, and boost heavy industry and defense manufacturing. Poland is already doing all of this, and the UK, France, and Germany are already moving in the direction of rearmament. That’s good.
Europe can’t make Trump or his party embrace their values. But what they can do is to become strong enough where Trump respects them instinctively. That strength will push Trump toward a posture of neutrality, instead of friendliness toward Russia. And maybe, after the weird rightist minority that has taken over the country no longer holds power, America and Europe can reestablish their storied alliance — on a more equal footing this time."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-america-betrayed-europe
20. "Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has attacked the United States and Europe on a near-daily basis using what are often referred to as “hybrid” operations, meant to hide the hand of the Russian government and to remain below the threshold of war so as not to trigger a response."
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/trump-courts-putin-russians-trying-kill-americans-gray-zone-hybrid-war
21. A truly unique and interesting person. Cyan Banister.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1eoWu8QVIU
22. "Putin wants a weak, failed Ukrainian state. Obviously Ukraine wants the opposite.
And this war, and negatiation now is not about NATO enlargement or Ukraine’s NATO membership. It never was. Simply put it is about Ukraine’s sovereignty, independent of Russia, or not.
Ukraine will not accept any deal that undermines/fails to secure its fundamental sovereignty. For Ukriane it is about the survival of the state, and it’s people. For Putin it is about the opposite. So while Trump might see this simply as a case of war or peace, for the two main protagonists in this war and negotiations is is about something different, and war has been the result of the underlining problem/dispute about Ukrainian sovereignty.
Not sure Trump et al get all this."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/a-game-of-chicken-kyiv-or-kiev
23. Always strong sober analysis by George Friedman. Founder of Geopolitical Futures.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6XttbqpM_M
24. This was a fun interview.
https://agoldfisher.medium.com/ai-robotics-the-future-of-work-328baca898fc
25. I think both of these people are CCP shills. But I try to listen to everyone to try to understand the situation on the ground. China is a major threat.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFV7kHgctJ8
26. Lots of good nuggets on geopolitics measurements right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLhhVDo4xGo
27. One of the more interesting characters in Silicon Valley. Alex Karp of Palantir.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUK-VYCh5go
28. Lots of fun stuff this week in Silicon Valley news.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6myq5J5PjI
29. One of the more original and interesting investors: Sam Lessin. A Fun conversation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IDjDzWCdlx0
30. "Achieving peace, security, and stability will require tough decisions and sacrifices. The kind of sacrifices that win wars. Is the EU willing to make them? As Trump advances with his America First agenda, it’s easy for proponents of liberty and democracy to despair. But there’s nothing like the threat of a brutal autocrat in Russia and an unpredictable president in the White House to bring unity to the continent. The bad news is the EU can no longer count on the U.S. The good news: They may not need us."
https://www.profgalloway.com/europe-becomes-a-union/
31. "For startups, working with the Department of Defense (DoD) can feel like stepping into a fortress of bureaucracy — procurement is slow, compliance is daunting, and knowing who actually makes buying decisions is like navigating a maze in the dark. Yet, for those who learn to successfully navigate these hurdles, the rewards can be enormous.
The DoD is one of the world’s largest and most stable customers, spending hundreds of billions on modern defense systems and technology annually. Unlike volatile consumer markets, defense contracts offer not just funding, but also long-term sustainment. Small wins can lead to multi-million-dollar deals, resulting in high-margin, predictable revenue streams. And beyond financial incentives, building technology that strengthens national security carries undeniable appeal in supporting our country and our interests as Americans.
But this market is not for the impatient. Sales cycles take years, compliance is non-negotiable, and understanding who buys what, and through which funding mechanisms, is as important as having a strong product. Startups must approach the DoD with a strategic, long-term mindset — because while the opportunities are vast, so are the barriers to entry.
While we hope for DoD procurement reform, the following is a high-level primer intended to arm you with a rough framework of how to approach selling to the DoD today."
https://a16z.com/dod-contracting-for-startups-101/
32. I don't agree with this perspective but it is Alt-Geopolitics with Alex Krainer. Always an interesting take.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjSuUOa9TYI
33. Damn, this was a deep and valuable interview with Silicon Valley VC legend: Doug Leone.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCWz0OxE16s
34. "While innovation and new production often steal the headlines, the future of U.S. manufacturing hinges on an often-overlooked component: maintenance and overhaul — what’s commonly known as the “aftermarket.” This vast ecosystem of maintenance, repair, logistics, and related jobs is essential to ensure these innovations operate seamlessly over time. Without addressing the aging infrastructure that underpins the country’s economic engine, even the most advanced progress in hardware and technology will fall short of its full potential.
Until we inspire a new generation of young people to enter these critical sectors, the momentum behind reshoring and revitalizing manufacturing may fall short. In the meantime, the key lies in leveraging technology to bridge the labor gap while simultaneously encouraging the next generation to see the potential and excitement in these massive, essential industries."