Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads April 6th, 2025
“April is a reminder that something better is always around the corner.”—Unknown
This looks great. Timely too as America becomes a gangster state.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qKGgw7Ob5f4
2. Good discussion this week on NIA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jioOgPYRevc
3. "Where in the 21st Century could Letters of Marque and Reprisal come in handy?
Cartels and terrorists have bank accounts and cryptocurrency accounts? Huh. I am sure we can weaponize some autists to go after those. Take it to a Prize Court, and they can decide how to make it legally theirs. 38% for the government that gave them a letter of marque and they keep the rest?
A fleet of boats smuggling weapons to the Houthis in the Gulf of Aden?
A cartel head travels by private jet on a regular basis and some enterprising people find a way to divert it to a US jurisdiction? What reward is there for that?
Those are just the first three things that come to mind. There are more.
If privateering was good enough for the Father of our Country, it’s good enough for me.
At sea, in the air, in space, in cyberspace…yes. Let’s make privateering great again."
https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/privateers-now-more-than-ever
4. "You may not expect the President of the United States to crash the US economy on purpose, but that is what appears to happen. Hopefully this is a healthy correction that allows us to rebuild on a stronger base, but either way — put your seatbelt on.
We are in for a bumpy ride."
https://pomp.substack.com/p/the-age-of-economic-chaos
5. "The enthusiasm to create a multinational military comes on the heels of von der Leyen’s ambitious plans to reindustrialize the EU and establish a place of prominence in the AI arms race. Among the many problems with this vision, one is determinative: physics.
That Europe is a drone attack away from yet another energy emergency is scandalous enough, but it is also testimony to the impossibility of converting platitudes into bombs. Brussels might refuse to acknowledge this fundamental truth, let alone confront it, but it is the sort of problem that cannot be wished away. The numbers are truly shocking, so let’s break them down.
This brings us back to the EU’s fantastical plan to build a military capable of slogging it out with the Russians without US support. There is talk of investing hundreds of billions of Euros to “rearm Europe,” presumably through the issuance of Eurobonds. Even if the requisite political approvals are secured from member nations, the plan is doomed to fail from the start. The very industries essential to executing such a strategy are the ones being driven out of business by exorbitant energy costs. One wonders of what Brussels thinks bombs, bullets, tanks, planes, trucks, and ships are made."
https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/project-porcupine
6. "We’re naturally optimistic about the USA coming out ahead in any sort of financial/economic warfare. That said, there is a dystopian version where this drags on for years. In that case you already know what we think: all this leads to more robots/automation.
Cost of production in the USA is just not going to work when compared to pennies on the dollar wages in places like SE Asia and South of the Border.
In the corporate world, you put in extra hours but if the company needs to restructure, you’re gone and forgotten within weeks.
The company survives, the execs cash their bonuses and you’re out scrambling.
The lesson? You are an expendable line item. A cog in a wheel. The second you forget that, you lose. The only way to win is to stop thinking like an employee and start thinking like an owner. Build skills, leverage, and multiple income streams so you’re treading water if you get hit vs. scrambling to make it on a month to month basis.
Your employer isn’t your family. The government isn’t family. Your boss isn’t your friend. You are on your own."
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/no-one-is-coming-to-save-you-not
7. View from Taiwan of the Ukraine & USA rupture. Studeman knows what he is talking about.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AO978OsfXo
8. "If you’ve been in the online business space you’ve probably heard of funnels. They are not a well understood concept by most people (who are just winging their business relying largely on traffic)… to their own detriment.
EVERY business is essentially a funnel whether the business owner realizes this or not.
A funnel is essentially how a customer goes from “I don’t know you” to making a purchase from you."
https://lifemathmoney.com/what-the-fuck-is-a-funnel-breaking-down-a-business/
9. "But clearly, the uses of the minerals Ukraine has go far beyond the energy transition. And Ukraine has tried hard to interest the new administration in its mineral wealth.
Also, China controls much of the world's supply of these materials. Opening access to Ukraine’s supply could reduce U.S. dependence elsewhere.
"To the credit of the first Trump administration, they have always put critical minerals as a very important policy priority because they knew they were so heavily reliant on China," Moerenhout said. “That priority for the Trump administration doesn’t change at all because they are less, let’s say, less aggressive about clean energy deployment targets in the future.”
https://time.com/7262115/trump-ukraine-minerals/
10. "Actually the four point peace plan suggested by the U.K., and the BIFs, Britain, Italy and France, as leading the way, seemed sensible. Arm Ukraine, give it the tools to defend itself, try a one month truce (covering air and seas, which is more easily verifiable) with Russia first, before a full scale ceasefire. Europe made clear that Ukraine need security guarantees, and arms to defend itself.
Third, events in the WH must have been the final wake up call to Europe, that NATO is dead, the US security guarantee for Europe is over, and that they have to step up if they care about their own security. And I think we saw that over the weekend. There is zero excuse now for Europe not to massively step up its defence spending, and build back its hard power. Zero excuses.
European defence spending will step up, but as we all know it faces capacity constraints in military industries, hence a short term reliance on the US is inevitable.
But Europe has leverage, if it ever realised it.
It will increase defence spending but will need to buy off the U.S. in the short term. If it were clever it would try and get ahead of the curve by committing to a long term arms procurement programme from the US. Say $1 trillion over ten years, a deal that even Trump could not say no to. Call it the Trump Defence of Democracy Programme, whatever you need to play to Trump’s enormous ego. Likely Trump could not say not to the jobs, jobs, jobs created in the US. But this would enable Europe to get over the short term gap in defence production, giving it time to reorient its economies and industry."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/ukraine-silver-lining-to-ambush-in
11. "Every convention, every rule, every norm must be tossed aside to understand and deal with him.
He is a different kind of Statesman, (some would say not one at all); one who will press the advantage when he knows he holds the winning hand, grace isn’t apart of Trump’s winning rhetoric. If he can win and take 80% he will do so. If he can push and get 100% and some of your winnings, he will do so.
Because he expects everyone else to do the same.
Trump grew up during the time where sales and negotiation was hardball. Every inch won, is hard-won and Trump has taken that to heart. If he asks for the moon, a rocket doesn’t seem so bad. Many in the institutional class won’t know this, but this is what every poor man knows now as: the Facebook Marketplace Negotiation. Or what everyone in the 80’s just referred to as sales.
Everything is a bargaining tool for Trump, nothing is off the table. The polite society Neo-Liberal “tit for tat”, arguing over “table-stakes” percentages is over. Tariffs are a bargaining tool. Retaliatory and Reciprocal Tarriffs are the same reasoning. (Trump also knows and views Subsidies as “Reverse Tariffs”)"
https://mercurial.substack.com/p/understanding-trump
12. "These folks probably don’t own a lot of Ripple, Solana, or Cardano — not many people do, after all. And so if Trump’s crypto fund goes through, these folks will be on the hook for higher taxes (or higher inflation) to pay out whoever does own a lot of Ripple, Solana, and Cardano. Trump softened the blow a bit by belatedly adding that he would have the fund buy Bitcoin and Ether, which a lot more people own. But it seems clear that if Trump’s idea goes through, a relatively small number of people are going to get enormous taxpayer-funded payouts.
Who stands to gain? Well, that’s the first reason crypto is such an ingenious tool for regimes to send money to favored individuals. Crypto holdings are anonymous — the public doesn’t even know who has a bunch of XRP, SOL, and ADA. But if you have a bunch of one or more of these coins, you can go whisper in Trump’s ear: “Hey man, I own a ton of Cardano.” And if you’re someone Trump wants to pay out, he can then just include Cardano in his list of cryptocurrencies that he wants the U.S. government to buy. Everyone knows that someone got a big payday, but no one knows who, except for the parties involved. Regime crypto payouts are inherently secret, even when done in plain sight."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/a-sovereign-crypto-fund-is-a-new
13. "In the US alone, the Fed and Treasury created approximately $4 trillion of credit between 2020 and 2022 in response to the Flu-19 pandemic.
The DOGE-inspired money printing could be 70% to 80% of COVID levels.
Bitcoin rose approximately 24x from its lows in 2020 to its highs in 2021 due to $4 trillion of money printing in the US alone. Given that the Bitcoin market cap is much larger now than then, let’s be conservative and call it a 10x rise for $3.24 trillion of money printing in the US alone. For those who ask how we get to $1 million in Bitcoin during the Trump presidency, this is how.
What Must Be True
I’m painting a very rosy future picture for Bitcoin even though the markets are currently in the shitter. Let’s go through my assumptions so readers can decide for themselves whether they are reasonable or not.
Trump will debt-finance America First.
Trump is using DOGE as a way to cull political opponents addicted to fraudulent income streams, curtail government spending, and increase the likelihood of a US government spending slowdown-led recession.
The Fed will respond pre or post-recession with a raft of policies that will increase the quantity and reduce the price of money.
Given your worldview, it’s up to you to determine if this makes sense."
https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/kiss-of-death
14. "The good news here is that a country doesn’t actually have to produce a bunch of standout inventions and Nobel-winning scientific discoveries in order to get rich. Singapore, Korea, and Taiwan all have higher per capita GDP than Japan does. So the question of “Where are all the Chinese breakthroughs?” might ultimately not matter to China’s leaders. Being “giant Korea” or “giant Taiwan” doesn’t sound like a particularly bad fate.
Still, I do wonder why China, with its vast talent pool, its avalanche of research funding, and its huge consumer markets, hasn’t produced more game-changing inventions and discoveries yet. I really doubt it’s a function of autocracy — the CCP would surely reward a Chinese researcher for inventing mRNA vaccines or the transformer model or Crispr. And Frank Wang wasn’t punished for inventing the modern quadcopter drone — in fact, he’s a billionaire, and seems to be escaping the negative attention that peers like Jack Ma have received.
One possibility is that China’s economic institutions reward fast-following and intense competition over breakthrough innovation. The lack of strong intellectual property protection might make it economically pointless to invent something really new — it’ll just get copied by someone else who takes all the money. That seems like it would encourage more incremental advances. In science, incentives for quantity of papers over quality might be the culprit. These incentives, along with various industrial policies, might produce intensive overcompetition, which I believe Chinese people call “neijuan”.
Whether China can tweak its system to produce more breakthrough discoveries and inventions is an open question. Whether it should even care about doing so, given the success of countries like Singapore, Taiwan, and Korea, is another open question. The country certainly does tons of innovation, and maybe the incremental kind is all you really need.
But if the scarcity of breakthroughs persists, I think there’s the possibility that, between that and China’s censorship of art and culture, 21st century great powers might simply turn out to be a bit more boring than their 20th century predecessors."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/is-china-inventing-big-important
15. Fascinated with this city. Megacity of Chengdu in China.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UqmPUsnWg14
16. A Hopeful view. Lesson from history for Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-QXz9wotrU
17. Super interesting company.
"Sequoia-backed Mach Industries, the defense tech founded by 21-year-old Ethan Thornton, landed a contract with the U.S. Army and has plans for its first factory, Thornton told TechCrunch.
The factory will be 115,000 square feet in Huntington Beach, California, where Mach’s headquarters is located, CEO Thornton said. While that sounds like an expensive zip code for a weapons factory, Southern California — in the shadow of SpaceX — has become a hotspot for America’s burgeoning defense tech industry.
Mach is also announcing it was selected by the Army Applications Laboratoryto develop a vertical takeoff precision cruise missile it calls “Strategic Strike.” This was a developmental contract that was awarded in the third quarter of 2024."
18. "For LPs, the implications are clear: backing specialists is a performance-driven necessity.
Generalist funds have been the go-to model for a long time, and it makes sense. The risk is spread across various industries, so if one area takes a hit, the whole portfolio doesn’t suffer. Diversification can help smooth out returns over time and give the flexibility to chase new opportunities—crypto yesterday, AI today, and ‘let’s see’ tomorrow. They can move where the action is, which can be an advantage in a fast-changing market.
In a world where technology is evolving at the fastest speed we have ever seen, the ‘jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none’ approach is becoming increasingly fragile.
Specialist firms have one big advantage: depth. When your thesis is laser-focused, you’re more likely to spot the real outliers early—before the noise kicks in and the price tags skyrocket. And if you’re right? The upside is exactly what LPs should be chasing—a 47% higher chance of landing in the top quartile. Of course, specialisation has its risks—if the sector struggles, so does the fund. But that’s the game. Instead of relying on generalists to cover everything, LPs should manage risk by spreading allocations across multiple specialists."
https://jamesheathvc.substack.com/p/why-specialists-will-win-the-next
19. "So Ukraine seems to have agreed to sign the minerals deal, and go along with Trump’s peacemaking plans, but they are not going to accept anything the Russia and the U.S. try and impose on them. Important there that if Ukraine is going to be pushed to de facto accept the loss of any territory to Russia, there is zero chance that this would be accepted without cast iron assurances that the territory remainng under control by Kyiv is secure. At the minimum I would think that will require a cast iron commitment that the U.S., West will continue to supply arms to Ukraine so it is able to defend itself.
NATO membership and bilateral security guarantees are nice (but unlikely) to haves but in the end the best assurance of Ukraine’s security is its own armed forces having the tools to defend the country. Russia, of course, will demand demilitarisation of Ukraine - specific limits in Ukraine’s military capability, not that Ukraine is a threat to Russia but obviously as Russia wants to invade Ukraine again in the future. I think there is zero chance that Ukraine will accept any deal where limits are imposed on its future military capability - unless that is others, like NATO, provide the direct security guarantee."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/zelensky-bowed-but-but-beaten
20. The Danger Zone right now in Asia. Worth watching.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dfbv2eHEdbY
21. "Venture investors are moving away from things without AI, not realizing there will still be some great businesses that just never need AI. Or, there will be some businesses where one possible market differentiator will be to be the one non-AI player with a higher human touch.
Venture and PE groups are probably both undervaluing companies that sell tech to the government, in light of recent cuts (and perceived coming cuts). Government has to be modernized and stay competitive and I expect these startups and growth companies will do better than people expect - particularly those that have both government and commercial customer segments.
And finally, agent deployments, which will definitely happen long term, are probably a little too aggressive. At my venture fund, we have a thesis that in 2026 you will start to see a lot of AI deployments break because they were put in to replace a human workflow that was only partially understood. Investing in the companies that benefit when that happens will be profitable.
In general, this is an easy strategy to execute.
Pick an area that was a good investment area that people now think is suffering from changes (DOGE, AI, etc).
Think through the catalysts that will cause the problems of the aggressive change to be realized by the powers that be.
Invest against that."
https://investinginai.substack.com/p/the-chestertons-fence-ai-investing
22. "An interesting trend I’m seeing in AI startup business models is paying per outcome instead of per month or year, which is the traditional with SaaS companies. My guess is that it would be unappealing for incumbents—who are used to guaranteed per user revenue—to shift to a performance-based model. Mike agrees, saying that counter-positioning—taking advantage of an incumbent’s reluctance to adopt a new model that undermines their existing revenue streams—is a powerful way for startups to compete.
It’s also a tale as old as time. Back in the 1990s, when Microsoft decided to compete with a startup, it was effectively a death sentence; it just had to bundle the competing product into Windows. But Google countered this by monetizing through ads instead of per-seat licensing. Microsoft couldn’t undermine Google’s business model by bundling anything into its operating system. (In case you were wondering, the sea change in this case was the web.)"
https://every.to/podcast/how-ai-startups-can-win-with-better-strategy
23. “Different & Excellent “ equates to something that doesn’t exactly look like other VCs. Could be pinning their thesis on a category of technology or type of founder that isn’t yet understood by the investment community. Or contrarian in the number of companies and/or dollars invested per company compared to their peers. Maybe even a strong POV on what value they can add that isn’t typically available to early stage founders. These firms aren’t carbon copies of anything else out there. In fact, they probably aren’t generally replicable.
But they take advantage of their unique founding partners, very often the type of people who would reject — or not get hired by — ‘traditional VCs.’ Here we have to torture the models to really understand the quantitative sensitivities around expected performance. And how quickly the firm can process new information and adjust if portions of their hypothesis need tuning once in market. But we’re interested in taking this risk when the person and opportunity warrants it."
24. Good debate on USA-CCP relations in Trump 2.0. I fall in the Beckley camp not Rein camp (who has business interests in China so very biased) but I guess we will see.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fcM6e__1wm0&t=10s
25. Important to understand China, where most countries have the most critical trade relations in the world + Relations between US & China.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPggTcQQa8s
26. An alternative take on the recent geopolitical events. USA's master plan?
I do think George Friedman has been right more than wrong.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksfn_7H92tc
27. A good what's up in Techland.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAJmfNHvWI0
28. Ryan has been a great observer of the Russian invasion of Ukraine since the beginning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGnqfihVPH0
29. "Similar to Germany's gas dependency, US allies became heavily reliant on American leadership and security. Trump's recent words and actions has shattered their perception of American reliability. They are now questioning whether the US would genuinely defend them if push came to shove. Asking themselves: is the US working with Russia? With Tulsi Gabbard in her current position, can sensitive intelligence be safely shared without leaks?
Instead of increasing NATO contributions in cooperation with the US, allies now look to increase military spending to operate independently of the US. This small distinction is important, it means the US is losing influence, not gaining it. Before the new Trump administration, this outcome was not what anyone in the US intended."
https://www.globalhitman.com/p/the-ghost-of-charles-de-gaulle
30. Very insightful interview with one of the next gen of Sequoia Capital. Good discussion on Spacetech.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o93vbkkYm1I
31. "Despite these challenges, Rosander noted that Sweden has been proactively embracing drone technology, with law enforcement and the military rapidly developing and procuring unmanned aircraft systems.
The Swedish government has partnered with the defense industry to develop a drone-swarm technology platform at record speed — a clear sign that lessons from Ukraine are shaping future strategies.
For Nordic Air Defence, the goal remains clear: scalable, effective, and affordable counter-drone solutions for the modern battlefield."
https://nextgendefense.com/defense-disruptors-nordic-air-defence/
32. "If the U.S. is truly stepping back, Europe faces a new paradigm. The days of 2% of GDP as a NATO benchmark are obsolete. If left to defend itself, Europe will likely need to spend far beyond the 3% number being floated now, with ~ 5% being the base rate for a reasonable starting point to match Cold War-era defence efforts. The only question is whether political leaders and the industry will move fast enough to make up for lost decades before it’s too late."
https://substack.com/@joshuasamuel88/p-157372636
33. "Defence procurement isn’t just about buying the most advanced tech—it’s about logistics, training, and interoperability. Countries overwhelmingly prefer to stick with proven systems they already operate rather than introduce new “SKUs” of tanks, aircraft, or missile systems, which add complexity and cost.
This dynamic creates a powerful incumbency advantage for existing suppliers. Once a system is embedded into a military’s operations, switching isn’t just expensive—it’s operationally risky. Seperately, margins tend to be higher on mature products versus new systems that carry development and execution risk."
https://substack.com/@joshuasamuel88/p-158432828
34. "Crises typically concentrate minds in Europe - the EU only tends to function effectively when it has a bullet (this time literally) close to its head. And I think the biggest existential security crisis that Europe has faced, perhaps since the Berlin airlift, or before, finally forced Europe into action, and this week we have seen activity across a number of fronts, including the U.K. leading efforts to come up with a European/Ukrainian peace plan to end the war in Ukraine - to help alleviate the risk of a bad peace imposed by Russia and the USA.
We have also seen Europe finally pull its finger out and announce huge new financing programmes for arms production, to the tune of many hundreds of billions of euros. The obvious question is why Europe has done nothing for the past three years, over the duration of the war in Ukraine, when surely the threat from Russia was already crystallised and existential? Misreading Russia - even appeasement by some - in the run up to the full scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was bad enough, but Europe sitting on its hands and doing nothing to assure its own security for the past three years is surely criminal.
But we are where we are, Europe is finally stepping into gear.
The problem for Europe though is that while the financing pillars of Europe’s rearmament are now in place, it will take time to build factories and build out actual defence capability in the field. This is time that Europe does not have - the threat from Russia is now, not in five years down the line, albeit in five years time the threat from Russia might be even more extreme.
The outlook is grim for Europe - which raises the question why Europe has not got the obvious for so long, sitting on its hands on issues like seizing immobilised Russian assets for Ukraine.
European inaction might well be the cause of its own downfall."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/europe-faces-existential-risks
35. "Despite the conventional wisdom, people lose money in real estate. Homes are illiquid capital-intensive assets that come with “phantom” costs: Insurance premiums, maintenance bills, and property taxes — all of which are expected to rise due to climate change. Owning also limits diversification, as homes are close to workplaces, meaning a local economic downturn or a natural disaster could wipe out your equity at the same time you lose a job.
Historically, the S&P averages a 10% annual return, outpacing housing at 4% to 8%. Moreover, real estate brokers typically charge around a 6% commission — 60x the transaction cost you’d pay for a low-fee ETF that tracks the S&P. The advantage of homeownership is forced savings, as people don’t want to risk the hassle and shame of eviction. Another advantage: Owning can stabilize monthly housing costs relative to rents.
If economic security is the nutrition of a capitalist society, then maybe we need to stop thinking of housing as an investment, but a consumable (e.g., food, energy, education). The construction of millions of low-cost units for young people, coupled with tax-advantaged incentives to invest in the market would result in a better path to wealth. In addition, we need to remove housing from the growing list of sources of anxiety for young people. It’s housing, not an investment strategy or the arbiter of whether you’re worthy enough to mate, start a family, or earn status. Economic security and deep and meaningful relationships are the American Dream, not a mortgage payment. The call sign for the next administration should morph from “Drill Baby Drill” to “Build Baby Build.”
https://www.profgalloway.com/project-2028-housing/
36. "When it comes to AI, I believe that prioritizing adaptability over resistance will serve us better in the long run. We didn’t abandon writing after the printing press, and we won’t stop thinking because of AI. Our skills will settle around overseeing and evaluating, instead of raw creation. This shift will be uncomfortable—we’ll likely lose some depth in areas AI handles well—but the trade-offs enable new capabilities we are only just beginning to imagine. The only way to discover them is to lean into using the new technology."
https://every.to/learning-curve/how-knowledge-work-will-evolve-in-the-ai-era