Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Apr 24th, 2022
“Happy he who learns to bear what he cannot change.”- Friedrich Schiller
"Grains, and meats are experiencing unprecedented catastrophes resulting in both increased prices and shortages. Furthermore even if we could grow or produce more, the basic building blocks such a fertilizer are unavailable to help alleviate the shortages we face.
The Supply Chain is in shambles and the World will be feeling these effects for many years to come even if everything was fixed tomorrow. The unfortunate nature of the global supply chain is that we are all interdependent on each other; and the scale in which we are operating on is so vast that one hiccup has major knock on effects.
The shortages are real, the bears for once are right."
https://mercurial.substack.com/p/on-the-shortages
2. I like seeing Canadians crushing it in America.
"Seed funded with $1.5 million by storied angel Ram Shriram among others, StumbleUpon would go on to be acquired several months later by eBay for $75 million.
Then Camp’s career really took off.
Within two years, Camp had bought back StumbleUpon with a syndicate of investors (he later folded the outfit into a newer discovery app called Mix). Around that same time, in 2009, Camp began tinkering in earnest with his idea for an on-demand car service — one that famously became Uber and which made Camp, who still owned 4% of it when Uber went public in 2019, a multibillionaire."
3. This is a very good discussion now whats happening with economic impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the consequent sanctions. Good for anyone interested in global macro trends & investing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNsW2zdXt9o
4. "Bitcoin does not have an implicit yield in BTC terms at the protocol level. Post-merge, ETH will. Therefore, Bitcoin is money, and ETH is a commodity-linked bond.
As global real rates are deeply negative, I want to own an asset that has a positive yield in its own currency — and at the moment, that is ETH. Bitcoin yields nothing. Therefore, from a pure interest rate differential perspective, I should own more ETH than Bitcoin. This will change when the price of ETH sufficiently rises to incorporate future ETH cash flows, due to the new rewards and validation system."
https://cryptohayes.medium.com/five-ducking-digits-cd92a7ab72ce
5. This is sad that it's happening in this day & age. Especially to a place I love. (Curse Putin and his Russian Army Orcs) But this is worth watching.
Also my friend Alexander K. successful entrepreneur turned soldier in the territorial defense force is in this video. Slava Ukraini!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DqIF2U4g7H8
6. One of the best shows in town (Silicon Valley town that is). Dorsey vs. Andreessen.
"Maybe the fight between the Bitcoin maximalist utopians and the crypto-promiscuous capitalists was always destined to blow up between Dorsey and Andreessen. Sure, they are both white male tech billionaires around the same age who made it big in Silicon Valley by coding.
But they grew up differently. They see the world, and themselves, differently. Andreessen thinks he’s the smartest guy in the room while Dorsey thinks he’s the most moral guy in the room. And no one fights as hard as people from the same tribe who want their tribe to go different places."
7. This is going to be ugly on energy and food front for next few years. Super high energy, grain & food prices.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93JKT4LkUOo
8. Another story of affluent digital nomads angering the locals.
Still Mexico City is a really awesome underrated city. For visitors and nomads please be good guests there or anywhere.
https://www.vox.com/the-goods/22999722/mexico-city-pandemic-remote-work-gentrification
9. Good explanation for the disastrous performance of the Russian army orcs. Bad organization, riddled with corruption, with crap leadership and no real motivation.
10. Cannot believe people actually believe this stupid theory. But then again Greenwald is a complete shill and Putin fanboy. F--- that guy & Putin.
"The basic argument is that Putin’s announced war aims — the “de-Nazification” and “demilitarization” of Ukraine — weren’t a declaration of an intent to launch a regime change operation targeting Kyiv, as most analysts believe. Instead, Putin’s true objective was more limited: expanding Russian control over eastern Ukraine, with the attacks on Kyiv serving as a kind of feint to tie down Ukrainian forces.
“Suppose for a moment that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine, that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine’s east, which contain Europe’s second-largest known reserves of natural gas (after Norway’s),” Bret Stephens writes in the New York Times. Stephens is not alone in this: National Review’s Michael Brendan Dougherty and prominent Substacker Glenn Greenwald have both recently advanced versions of this claim.
Yet their arguments do not stand up to even light scrutiny: They are not consistent with the structure of Russia’s military campaign, public statements by Russian authorities, or even a basic cost-benefit analysis."
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/23003689/putin-ukraine-russia-donbas-energy-feint
11. "Whatever Putin's aims, his military currently lacks the necessary manpower to sustain a protracted war. There is, however, a way he could change that.
In short, Putin could drop the pretence that Russia is conducting a "special military operation" in Ukraine, as opposed to fighting a war.
By declaring war, he could then mobilise Russians at a national level.
The problem is, doing so would contradict the information that has been fed to Russians since the beginning of the invasion. That makes it a political risk."
12. "From my perspective, I expect the Democrats to rely on their progressive playbook over the next few months. They’ll try to buy support using aggressive social spending programs while maintaining an aggressive anti-Russian/China stance. This will be a disastrous mixture for US economic hegemony.
It will ultimately harm the value of the dollar. The net result will be a new geopolitical dynamic with America, Europe, Russia, China, and India vying to split global dominance. And because of this fragmenting version of globalism, it will be a fertile ground for a new global reserve asset.
The moral of this story is that 2023 could prove to be Bitcoin’s spring. Can you imagine a better hedge for the coming months of uncertainty? In this timeframe expect rising inflation and additional waves of government stimulus which are likely to be within the US administrations playbook.
Bitcoin is the globalists hedge against rising nationalism, economic warfare, and an emergent multipolar future. The bottom line is that now seems like the idea time to accumulate in earnest."
https://dougantin.com/america-do-you-feel-in-charge
13. "If it is just a question of optics (hopefully so!), could it be that this off-balance sheet/outsourcing approach is now proving more expensive than the costs it was meant to save?
Does the outsourcing of space capabilities to private firms mean that war is effectively now being conducted by private firms? Have we tried to move war itself off-balance sheet? Can this be sustained? Will war itself ultimately embroil the superpowers and their proxies rather than just their off-balance-sheet assets? Will these off-balance-sheet and outsourced activities boomerang back onto government balance sheets, forcing central banks to catch these activities with their own balance sheet?
It seems strange to think the Fed might raise rates and face further additions to its balance sheet at the same time. But, this is possible."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/the-off-balance-sheet-world
14. First time I agree with this guy on anything. Fcuk the CCP & their enablers in West (ie. Hollywood & Wall Street).
"The CCP has taken the opportunity to showcase its technocratic authoritarian prowess, putting on a display that is proving to be the envy of the world’s tyrannical ruling class, which modeled their COVID responses from some form of the Wuhan lockdowns.
Of course, none of this has anything to do with science, as none of these measures actually do anything to stop a virus from spreading among a population, as proven through two years of data showing the failures of lockdowns. And the additional downsides of Wuhan-style lockdowns, both on an individual and societal level, remain obvious to any objective observer. Why China has decided to put on this pseudoscientific display once again — this time in Shanghai — remains a mystery."
https://dossier.substack.com/p/shanghai-under-lockdown-witness-the
15. "Why are people surprised here? This is the Russian way of war. They did this in WW2, Chechnya, and Syria.
The Russian army is brutal and not professional like what we know in the West. This is why Russia cannot be allowed to win."
https://news.yahoo.com/saw-horrific-things-ukrainians-recall-112305197.html
16. "This is one of the many reasons Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is so vividly horrific; the imagery seems borrowed from another time. Charred tanks, soldiers freezing while they wait to attack, civilians taking shelter or sifting through rubble, and the long columns of refugees — it all reminds us of that terrible past. It is also so at odds with modern expectations and standards that many are now remarking that the world will not be the same when this war is over."
https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/04/01/tectonic-shifts-how-putins-war-will-change-the-world
17. "Retirement is a Scam: In the end, long-term readers of this side of the internet know that retirement is a dream sold to the masses. No one successful enjoys doing nothing all day (billionaires continue to work/do something well past retirement age). Instead, we should focus on a point at which *you* don’t have to work on anything you dislike! You’re still going to work doing something.
The point is that you should have an *exit number* to remove all the excuses for doing a job/career/business you hate. To be clear. Until you make it, you absolutely need to do things you hate/loathe as you haven’t made it yet."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/lifestyle-inflation-and-retirement
18. I'm actually pro-Bitcoin but this is interesting.
"Gary Gensler can be accused of many things, but being ignorant of how crypto markets work is not one of them. After all, he used to teach a class at MIT’s Sloan School of Management titled Blockchain and Money. Gensler knows what really drives the “price” of Bitcoin, and what is driving the need for a constant supply of new fiat. It is all right there in the filings for everyone to see.
We suspect most Bitcoin enthusiasts simply do not want to look."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/a-spot-of-bother-for-bitcoin
19. This is why we need to arm Ukraine to the teeth and sanction the crap out of Putin and his cronies. #StandwithUkraine
"Indifference to human life has been a hallmark of Russian strategy throughout this war. Thousands of civilians have already died because of being struck by missiles, shells, and bombs. There has been no shortage of reports of the appalling treatment being meted out by Russian troops. The ‘Bucha effect’ may confirm the phenomenon that after a certain point the casualties of war become statistics, the numbers so large that it is impossible to comprehend their human meaning.
What makes the difference are images that are visceral and intimate, so that we can imagine not only the terror of the victims but also the barbarity of the perpetrators. It is one thing to fire into residential areas from a distance and quite another to go into those areas, look helpless people in the eye, and then kill them in cold blood.
The effect has also been to bring a moral clarity to all strategic calculations. Having now seen what happens when Russia occupies Ukrainian territory, Western governments know that they cannot push President Zelensky to make any territorial concessions simply to bring the war to an end. Of course, the West is in no position to bring regime change to Moscow. Nor can Ukraine. Only the Russians can do that.
So all that can be done is to support Ukraine until Russian troops have left, leaving Putin to face the consequences of his catastrophic folly."
https://samf.substack.com/p/the-russo-ukraine-war-phase-two
20. Super insightful view on why the Russian army sucks & seems only capable of looting and killing civilians from long range bombardment.
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1511528319656755205
21. This is always a fun and educational show. "Not Investing Advice"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TriHbXqJpiA
22. I truly hope someone takes out Putin & soon.
"In fact, his policy goal, now, is never going to happen. He thought the war would be over within two or three days. We’re now into a second month and it may go on much longer than this. I hope not, but it’s possible. And in his mind, he is pursuing a legitimate historical goal.
And can he lose? No. Can he persuade himself, ever, that he has lost? No. The only people who can persuade him will never persuade him, they will have to get rid of him in one way or another. And those are the people closest to him. They are the ones who know his mind, know his methods because they are the same people.
And if they get rid of him, there may be somebody very much like him who would come into power, or if we are lucky … if we are lucky, we may get to see the other promise of Russia … of literature, of music, of history, of growth, of creativity — Russia and the Russian people, it’s a great society.
And if there were another way of leaving the KGB mentality and reaching into the other Russia, we would all be so much better off led by the Russian people themselves. Is it possible? Yes. It’s there. It has to emerge from the soot and the gutter that it exists in today."
https://www.vox.com/2022/4/6/23013514/vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-history-marvin-kalb
23. I don't understand why anyone would support Putin and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
These are the atrocities they commit, and more will come out soon based on the territories these monsters control now.
And this is why the West must back Ukraine until the barbaric Russian army is destroyed or pushed out of Ukraine.
https://www.vox.com/2022/4/3/23009048/russian-troops-retreat-in-ukraine-civilian-deaths-discovered
24. 3 weeks old here so his views on Russian success in Ukraine are dated and wrong so far. But the long term predictions on global geopolitics seem to be good.
Worth a listen to get yourself out of your media bubble.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mu19_rlwHgY
25. A great charitable initiative to help Ukrainian refugees led by some founders I know. Please help support them.
https://www.ukrainianhelphub.com/donate
26. Awesome way to support Ukraine by buying from their awesome companies. #StandWithUkraine
27. "Net-net here, I can see a route to a potential peace deal, but it still requires Russia to win the Battle for Donbas, which is not a given. This war could still drag on for a very long time – and what is notable is that peace talks seem to be going nowhere. The West is just set on ensuring Putin loses which means continuing to arm/finance Ukraine."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/putins-next-move
28. My bet is on Ukraine. Morale and experience matters. #armukrainenow
"Both sides have pretty good reasons to believe that they could emerge triumphant.
It’s possible Russia successfully pulls Ukraine into a series of pitched battles in which their aircraft and artillery advantages prove decisive, allowing them to encircle the Joint Forces and seize the entire Donbas. It’s possible that the Ukrainians successfully blunt the Russian attack and mount a counteroffensive, leveraging their manpower reserves and more motivated fighting force to retake parts of the region Russia currently controls. It’s possible they end up in a bloody stalemate, a long war of attrition where the two armies wear each other out over the course of months or years.
Right now, as the fighting is just ramping up, it’s impossible to say which of these scenarios, if any, is the most likely outcome. Too much depends on unpredictable battlefield developments.
But at the same time, it’s not clear how much the outcome of the battle will actually end up mattering. In my conversations with experts, each and every one of them said that, in the big picture, Russia has suffered an irreversible defeat in this war.
“The Russian special military operation in Ukraine is already a strategic failure,” Oliker says. “What they wanted out of this was a compliant Ukraine run by people friendly to Russia. This does not seem like a plausible outcome — and, aside from that, their forces have proven to be much less capable than almost everyone thought.”"
29. This is a good video for my simple brain. I like the white board explanation here. Bretton Woods 3 has begun.