Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Apr 3rd, 2022
“Endurance is not just the ability to bear a hard thing but to turn it into glory.”- William Barclay
This does not seem like the message or tone of someone winning.
https://news.yahoo.com/putin-warns-russia-against-pro-162351239.html
2. I hope much sooner than May (2 months from now) but I guess we will see.
"Ending the war sooner means a loss of prestige, domestic legitimacy hit, and no maximalist goals in Ukraine. Advancing means loss of economic power, draining military, loss of morale at home.
The question now for Russia is, “how much is too much? How little is too little?” They clearly cannot obtain their maximalist goals of complete regime change but will have to find an optimal way to balance domestic legitimacy, international prestige, economy, and military goals. This is a difficult position for the Kremlin.
All peace is won from the conditions on the battlefields of economy, military, and political will. And not all peace is equal. When assessing the ongoing development of the war, we should remain mindful of these facts. The Ukrainians are fighting for peace that will allow for a meaningful future with the European Union without further Russian interference.
Putin is fighting to impose certain political outcomes, but the question for him now is: when to stop? All areas of the analysis show that it will be sooner than later; I personally expect peace by May."
https://stefekrajic.substack.com/p/when-to-stop
3. This is a very good overview of PLG principles. Well worth spending your time on reviewing.
https://www.bvp.com/atlas/10-product-led-growth-principles
4. "The Putin Triple Punch reminds me of Mohamed Ali’s insight that “everyone has a plan till they get punched in the face”. The timing was both perfect and not random. The West faces record debt, record credit risk, fast-rising inflation and central banks that have no ammo left. What better time to throw a punch? What the West is still working out, though is how bad the damage is. My view is that Putin has quite deliberately set the stage for a famine.
We can already see the early signals of famine. The high oil prices caused by Western sanctions and saying no to Russian energy exports automatically raises the cost of both fertilizer and food delivery. Food prices were already screaming upwards even before that. The association of truck drivers in Italy announced a stoppage. They were very clear. This is not about wages. The problem is that they simply cannot make any money delivering food when the oil price is so high. The Italian grocery stores are already self-rationing spaghetti as a result. The Italian livestock growers have already announced that they will start culling animals in another few weeks because the cost of feedstock (wheat/grain) is so high.
Why have wheat prices skyrocketed? Russia and Ukraine are the 5th and 4th largest producers of wheat in the world."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/the-bleeding-victor-part-one
5. "During the unfolding of this new global financial crisis, if you are serious about what the future holds monetarily for the various global factions, reading Zoltan Pozsar’s missives is non-negotiable. He is a money markets and rates strategist for Credit Suisse and pairs an excellent understanding of the intricate plumbing of global money markets with a clear and concise writing style. I don’t know if he coined the terms “Inside Money” and “Outside Money,” but I rather like how simple yet informative these descriptions of money and collateral are.
Inside Money are monetary instruments that exist as liabilities on another player’s balance sheet. A government bond is a liability of the sovereign, but an asset in the banking system that trades like cash depending on the credit quality of the issuer.
Outside Money are instruments that are not liabilities on another player’s balance sheet. Gold and Bitcoin are perfect examples.
The current PetroDollar / EuroDollar monetary system ended last week with the confiscation of the Russian Central Bank’s fiat currency reserves by the US and EU, and the removal of certain Russian banks from the SWIFT network. In a generation hence, when hopefully this sad episode of human history concludes, historians will point to 26 February 2022 as the date on which this system ended, and a new, currently unknown-to-us system sprouted."
https://cryptohayes.medium.com/energy-cancelled-e9f9e53a50cd
6. "But the Russian side will be looking to encourage bondholders to lobby the UST to lift the sanctions on the CBR to ensure payment.
I just don’t see what OFAC would do this. It’s in Russia’s interest to pay as if they don’t they will go into default and that would have costs and consequences on Russia for a very long time. Indeed, Russia could be paying for their decision not to pay for a decade to come in low ratings, higher borrowing costs, lower investment, lower growth and lower living standards. And for Putin that could ultimately mean social unrest domestically challenging his regime - he already looks to be losing this war."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/russian-debt-to-pay-or-not-pay
7. "It feels like it is turning point time for this conflict, Putin has to either bow to peace talks, and even the leaked Russian version of 15-point peace plan suggested not much of a win given the costs now to Russia. Or he has to double up.
The key military pressure point now seems to be Western arms supplies to Ukraine, as even the lower tech Javelins, Manpads, Stingers etc have proven highly effective in the hands of mobile insurgent Ukrainian forces. Putin has realised this and has now issued several warnings to the West to stop arming the Ukrainians. He even reinforced this message with the missile strike last weekend on the staging base near the Polish border.
The response was given by President Biden yesterday, announcing another $800m in fresh arms supplies to Ukraine, including S300 ex Soviet SAMs, plus loads more stingers and javelins. The message surely to Putin from Biden is fcuk-you. You started this war, we are not going to rollover to you now. Your only option is to sue for peace, and on Ukrainian terms."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/decision-time-for-putin
8. This is a very balanced video from a former US Military veteran. Gives a more nuanced view on what’s happening on the ground in Ukraine.
Confirms that Ukraine is winning overall & that Russia has very big problems in short and long run but not battles all going Ukraines way so we need to keep supporting them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Igq2fqa7RY4
9. "Foreign direct investors in Russia are expected to simply write down their stakes.
But those who have invested directly in Putin’s regime, the foreign bond holders, may, by way of Western courts, have recourse against Russian public assets.
I’m no expert in international law like Professor Gulati. I may have the wrong end of the stick. But if this is broadly speaking correct, it is surely an intolerably perverse situation.
And it poses the question: should the fact that the $117 million in interest are currently flowing to Western investors be a cause for celebration or scandal?
Would it not be appropriate for those proceeds to be allocated to a common fund to compensate the victims of Putin’s aggression?"
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-101-odious-claims-on-russias
10. This was a great NIA episode. Really worth watching to know what’s happening in business world and crypto world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVDyYnR_gFU&t=1892s
11. Good if you ask me & not a good sign for the Russian war effort. This shows some serious deficiencies in Russian military. Fcuk these Russian generals & hope more join them: reap what you sow.
12. This is so absolutely true. Blame can be placed at the terrible energy policies in Western Europe and USA.
https://shaykhatiri.substack.com/p/our-mistakes-have-made-us-reliant
13. "Of course, this was somewhat of an illusion. Companies basically traded away resilience in favor of efficiency, while pretending that there was minimal downside, and yet this type of approach only works under a benign global environment. Outside of the Middle East and a few localized regions around the world, the 1980s through the 2010s was generally a period of limited war as far as supply chains were concerned, with significant global openness and cooperation.
Extremely efficient and highly complex supply chains, with limited redundancy or inventory, could thrive in this stars-aligned macro environment. Any company not playing that game would be less efficient in this environment, and thus would be out-competed.
In recent years, many people spoke about how inflation was dead, and how commodity scarcity was a thing of the past.
The problem with an efficient-but-not-resilient global supply chain, is that it stops working once the smallest of exceptions occur. It could be a natural disaster of some sort, such as a virus. It could be a human disaster of some sort, such as a war. Or both, in the case of the 2020s decade thus far. A highly-levered and fragile system is not designed for such shocks."
https://www.lynalden.com/march-2022-newsletter
14. Good description of the vibe shift in tech from Trump era to Biden era. Very interesting.
https://www.platformer.news/p/the-vibe-shift-in-silicon-valley
15. "The global money washing industry is thriving throughout the U.S. and Europe, and kleptocash has seeped into every corner of our economies. This has profound consequences, for us and for the exploited citizens of the kleptocracies themselves. When Russia began privatizing in the 1990s, it was clear that crime and corruption were rampant.
But Western leaders reasoned that once the oligarchs gained their wealth, they’d develop an interest in stability and the rule of law to protect it, and to support the development of an economy and society where they could enjoy their ill-gotten gains. It’s an age-old phenomenon: Bandits become bandit kings and eventually see the virtues in shedding the banditry — or at least corralling it with law and law enforcement.
But as Russia scholar Karen Dawisha wrote in Putin’s Kleptocracy, that view “failed to foresee the extent to which globalization would allow Russian elites to continue to maximize their gains by keeping domestic markets open for their predation while minimizing their own personal risk by depositing profits in secure offshore accounts” — and enjoying the fruits of the Western economy by buying yachts, enjoying five-star meals, and hanging with celebrities. As she later put it, “the rule of law for Russia is in London.”
The oligarchs may be the ones stealing from the Russian people, but we are the pawn shop that fences their stolen goods."
https://www.profgalloway.com/wash
16. The future of war: Drones. First in Azeri-Armenian war, now by Ukraine trouncing Russian troops (war initiated by Russia btw).
https://futurism.com/the-byte/ukrainian-drone-pilots-russia
17. I love these discussions. The best show online these days discussing the global economy, politics, tech and business.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_U3pVW4u_vw
18. What a strange move ie AMC theaters buying into a gold mining company. Aron of AMC is a very sophisticated Corporate America type and knows the game (in all the good and bad ways). Caveat emptor.
"It has been an interesting two years for Aron and many believe he’s on a hero’s journey of sorts – called to new adventure, bringing AMC through its meme-fueled rebirth and looking for others to save. Happily for Hycroft, and especially happy for the sanctity of Sprott’s debt, this particular hero is attracted to shiny things. Even better, he is followed by an army of primate hodlers willing to follow him off a cliff."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/a-fool-and-his-gold
19. "So, which is it? The victor is mortally wounded (see Gromen) or the victor wins the spoils. Which is it? Can it be both? We will see America default on its citizens and lenders through inflation. Yes, we will pay the lenders back the $100 we borrowed but it is going to be worth a lot less. Will America default on its own citizens by breaking the promises and failing to deliver government payments? Yes. Will Americans simply have to work longer? Yes. Will that fix the problem? Actually, yes, it will but at what cost to public trust? A huge loss of trust and faith in government is bound to ensue, and that’s starting from the already depressed levels of trust."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/the-wounded-victor-part-two
20. This is a big deal. Has a huge impact on Russia & of course, China now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xsCSP8Ic6w
21. "Because we’re Gonna Make It, we’re going to follow some straightforward rules: Only seek out training from people with Industry Recognized Certification, or who have relevant experience to the point where they train Professionals.
First thing you need to do is to judge your current skill level. If you don’t even have basic competency with a gun, there’s really no reason to try to take a tactical shooting class."
https://bowtiedcaiman.substack.com/p/tactical-training-and-why-choosing
22. "Thus, the internet changes Cancel Culture by massively increasing the number of people who can target you for ostracism. It’s a bit like living in a gossipy small town where you don’t know any of your neighbors — you don’t know who’s going to read what you write, so you don’t know how people are going to take what you say."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/its-not-cancel-culture-its-cancel-ade
23. "Buterin hopes Ethereum will become the launchpad for all sorts of sociopolitical experimentation: fairer voting systems, urban planning, universal basic income, public-works projects. Above all, he wants the platform to be a counterweight to authoritarian governments and to upend Silicon Valley’s stranglehold over our digital lives. But he acknowledges that his vision for the transformative power of Ethereum is at risk of being overtaken by greed.
And so he has reluctantly begun to take on a bigger public role in shaping its future. “If we don’t exercise our voice, the only things that get built are the things that are immediately profitable,” he says, reedy voice rising and falling as he fidgets his hands and sticks his toes between the cushions of a lumpy gray couch. “And those are often far from what’s actually the best for the world.”
The irony is that despite all of Buterin’s cachet, he may not have the ability to prevent Ethereum from veering off course. That’s because he designed it as a decentralized platform, responsive not only to his own vision but also to the will of its builders, investors, and ever sprawling community. Buterin is not the formal leader of Ethereum. And he fundamentally rejects the idea that anyone should hold unilateral power over its future."
https://time.com/6158182/vitalik-buterin-ethereum-profile
24. This is the future of war. And the reality is whoever has the moral legitimacy on their side will probably get more of the collective of cyberhackers on their side. In this case, clearly Ukraine.
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60784526
25. Ill advised but that has never stopped megalomaniacs from pursuing their agenda of supremacy. If China rises it’s because the US & West completely screwed things up.
"So China stands at an epic crossroads. It faces a choice that will determine its fate for the rest of the century — the choice of whether to return to the path of stability that Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin, and Hu Jintao set it on, or whether to gamble it all to try and succeed where the revisionist illiberal powers of the 20th century failed. The stock market is only the latest messenger issuing a warning that the latter course would be extremely ill-advised."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/china-has-a-fateful-choice-to-make