Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Aug 21st, 2022
Scars are not signs of weakness, they are signs of survival and endurance― Rodney A. Winters
"I have no idea how to find the perfect balance between internal and external benchmarks. But I know there’s a strong social pull toward external measures – chasing a path someone else set, whether you enjoy it or not. Social media makes it ten times more powerful. But I also know there’s a strong natural desire for internal measures – being independent, following your quirky habits, and doing what you want, when you want, with whom you want. That’s what people actually want."
https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/lifestyles
2. "The equilibrium that keeps Putin in power -- mastery over rivals, soft support in the population, the integrity of the army -- is challenged by the realities of an unpredictable, costly war. Putin has been good at keeping us all in a fog. But now he himself seems lost in the fog of war.
No one can say what exactly is happening inside the Kremlin. But a general predicament does seem clear. The trap laid before Putin (willingly or unwillingly, consciously or unconsciously) by rivals, by the public, and by the army looks like this: we will all agree with you that we are winning the war — and we will all have no one to blame but you if Russia loses it. This is all quite vague, half-unsaid, clouded by emotion, displacement, taboo, and fear. But it is the general picture. And in its fundamentals the trap was laid by Putin himself.
War is politics by other means; Putin himself chose this war and its atrocities. For the war to end, Putin must feel the politics change around him; and so for the war to end, Ukraine must win. For the West, this means patience and firmness and the consistent supply of the weapons Ukraine needs."
https://snyder.substack.com/p/putins-rule-is-weakening
3. I'm a big fan of this guy's show and the amazing support he provides to Ukraine. He is in Kyiv right now.
https://www.gofundme.com/f/send-money-directly-to-ukrainians-for-food
4. “We find ourselves in an interesting spot because we’ve always been cash flow-positive, and we don’t need to do those things,” said Notion COO Akshay Kothari. “So we’ve been thinking the last six months a lot about ‘Well, if everybody is zigging, how do we zag?’”
Instead of pulling back on investing like many of its peers, the productivity startup has gone on the offense. It acquired calendar app Cron in June and brought on the Flowdash team earlier this month. Notion also leaned into more marketing by launching a global ad campaign — the kind of spending VCs are cautioning against."
https://www.protocol.com/workplace/notion-flowdash-acquisition-tender-offer
5. "Look, I’m not attacking the current administration in the US specifically, or France’s sitting economic leadership—to me, this isn’t an issue that defines particular political parties. Instead, it’s a perfect example of how political leaders as a whole will say whatever they please, even changing the very definition of what a recession is, to avoid taking the blame for an economic situation that exists while they’re in power.
And just like France’s government did during the revolution, they’ll keep making the same financial blunders as always, while manipulating us into believing that nothing is wrong, as they speak falsehoods with silver tongues.
They don’t care about the economic success of the people, or providing the truth. Instead of delivering the difficult news that we should hunker down for an economic slowdown, and make financial choices to prepare for that, they instead tell us it’s all nothing to be concerned about.
Mostly, I believe they only do this in an attempt to save their own skin, so they don’t have to take the fall for a situation they’ve helped create, due to the insane amount of money printing that’s gone on these last few years.
Or in other words, we’re on our own."
https://abundantia.substack.com/p/off-with-his-head
6. "Even with these illiquid challenges, for startups that work out, illiquidity is a feature. Why? When a startup succeeds, there’s a tremendous amount of compounding value. If there were opportunities to regularly sell shares, like with a public company, it’s too easy to do so and lose the upside. Compounding value is one of the most powerful forces. Forced deferral of selling startup stock, in scenarios where the startup is successful, is a feature because it creates the most value and wealth for the team.
Illiquid startup equity is a feature, not a bug, when the startup works out as there aren’t daily distractions of the stock price and the team benefits from compounding the value of their equity at a high rate for the life of their tenure. The next time someone laments about not being able to sell their startup stock, focus on the upsides."
https://davidcummings.org/2022/07/30/illiquid-startup-equity-as-a-feature
7. VC investing principles from the best in the biz.
https://www.readthegeneralist.com/briefing/timeless-investing-lessons
8. This is worth watching. Energy is Life. Great interview with Doomberg.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65z2cG0QDRo
9. "The most difficult problem still to be solved is how to create in Brussels a common power that can be genuinely independent from French and German interests. The lack of such a power was responsible for Brexit, with Britain having concluded that inside the E.U. it would remain excessively dependent on its old European rivals in Paris and Berlin.
In the longer term, enlargement should be able to take us there. With Ukraine as a member, the simple combination of Polish and Ukrainian votes will exceed the German share. Have no illusions that this is the reason both France and Germany are looking for a solution to postpone Ukrainian membership, temporarily replaced with a different kind of arrangement President Macron called a “European Political Community.”
In the shorter term, we need new alliances between the South, Scandinavia, and Central Europe. But the balance of power is already shifting."
https://time.com/6202299/ukraine-invasion-european-union-becoming-union
10. Consumer startups are really really hard.
https://techcrunch.com/2022/07/22/mark-cuban-hasnt-profited-from-his-shark-tank-investments
11. I've been pretty vocal publicly about what a crap business the micro mobility space (ie. scooters) has been for at least 5 years now. 5 billion dollars poured into this garbage.
https://news.crunchbase.com/transportation/scooter-startups-vc-public-market-lime-brds
12. "But we’ve gotten to a point as a society where there is too much knowledge and it’s outpaced our ability to filter people with that knowledge. There are hundreds of blog posts for how to get into an Ivy League school, but only so many spots available. There are millions of people starting companies but investors are still only funding people in their network, because of the trust filter. Job positions get so overrun with candidates that recruiter doesn’t even reject anyone anymore; They just don’t have time to reply. All of this is a consequence of the world having more knowledge than ever before. This is a good thing, but enough is enough! It’s time we move on to the next economy of the internet; The Access Economy
What is the Access Economy?
If the knowledge economy gave everyone the opportunity to be experts in a field, the access economy is the ultimate human organizer. It matches up the qualified individuals with the right opportunities while using a completely new framework for evaluating and identifying talent."
https://words.seedscout.com/p/the-3-economies-of-the-internet
13. We are in the middle of this Gray war, like it or not.
"The scale and nature of the task is determined by the capabilities of the opposition. In World War 2, the Axis powers had advanced manufacturing prowess, but small populations and a lack of access to fuel. In the Cold War, the Soviet bloc had a lot of fuel and a population similar to ours, but had a small and dysfunctional economy and struggled with advanced manufacturing.
In contrast, a potential “New Axis” of Russia and China would control enormous population, vast fuel resources, advanced manufacturing capabilities, and a combined economy of enormous size. Except for the fuel part, this is all just China."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-war-economy-sizing-up-the-new
14. "It’s ironic to think about the touring grind given the remote work vs in-office debates in Corporate America. Many 9 – 5 workers will never go back to a job that requires them to commute 200+ days per year again. Imagine doing that in a different city every night?! Artists’ travel is on another level.
The dream is for artists to have the autonomy to do live performances on their terms. But to get there, they have to shift the business model for how they operate and take a few risks.
The best way for artists and creatives to get off the grind is to build or invest in successful companies. Artists have a distribution advantage given the audience they have built through the content they create and the shows they’ve performed in. Media and content businesses are most lucrative when used as a platform to sell other products. Look at beats by dre, Ace of Spades, Fenty Beauty, and Verzuz. The artists behind those companies grew them and sold at least part of them."
https://trapital.co/2022/08/01/why-artists-should-build-sustainable-businesses
15. I'm ultra pro Taiwan (although I hate the absolutely corrupt Pelosi) but the timing of this trip seems really stupid. (altho I detest the CCP too). We are run by unserious clowns.
"Sure China represents a hegemonic threat to the US but over the medium to longer term. But if the US does not ensure Ukraine’s victory over Russia in Europe then it will have zero chance of countering China over the long term.
Second, Xi faces a difficult leadership battle later this year and surely Pelosi has handed him a nationalist win on a plate. Surely he will react with vigour and China and will rally behind their leader at this time of stress."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/pelosi-visit-to-taiwan-is-madness
16. "The reason why tech companies have cut first is two fold: 1) many are unprofitable already and they are worried about cash burn and 2) they are the fastest to react to changing interest rates and market conditions. The Tech sector is telling you what is happening in the broader economy and most are in denial about this. If the highest earning people take a hit, why would the services economy (IE. the United States a whole) do better? It doesn’t make any sense at all.
Conclusion: You now have verifiable proof that the major high-end chips are made in Taiwan. Not on US soil. Not on China soil. Taiwan. If China takes over Taiwan and TSMC as a whole, it means all important high-end chips will be controlled by China (hint: spyware!)."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/watching-the-news-what-mid-curve
17. "Computer chips are essential in both delivering precision weapons and evading them. They are a crucial part of guidance systems, cameras and computer vision, other sensors, and so on. And computer chips have become an essential component of modern military vehicles themselves. Of course this all goes double for drones, which are playing an increasingly central role in warfare. And computer chips are absolutely indispensable for lots of other aspects of modern war — electronic warfare, satellites, communications, encryption, you name it.
Given the centrality of computer chips to modern war, a nation would leave itself nearly defenseless if it ran out of supply of high-quality chips in wartime. If computer chips had to be shipped from Taiwan and South Korea, they would be vulnerable to a Chinese blockade. Thus there is a strong national defense argument for promoting and protecting a high-tech, high-volume semiconductor industry here in the U.S. And at least in the U.S., national defense tends to override other concerns.
This is why we’re finally getting our national rear in gear when it comes to government support for the semiconductor industry."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/industrial-policy-starts-with-semiconductors
18. "Basically, Pakistan invests very little of its GDP, so it can’t build up capital over time. Low investment is probably a result of various bad economic policies, but it’s also probably due to political instability — Pakistan frequently alternates between military and civilian control, and civilian administrations tend to be chaotic and fractious (as in the current turmoil). That’s not a very good climate to invest in!
Instead of investing, Pakistan keeps its population on life support with constant external borrowing — from international organizations, from China, from Saudi Arabia, from whoever will loan it money. It uses these loans to fund consumption of basics like fuel. Mian discusses how this has resulted in a perverse fuel subsidy — a pretty common practice for governments that want to keep their populations pacified, but one that Pakistan is particularly ill-equipped to afford.
So Pakistan constantly limps along at the knife-edge of desperate poverty, decade after decade, as generals and politicians fight over who gets to be in charge. Currency crisis or no currency crisis, that is a long-term recipe for disaster."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/pakistan-is-in-big-trouble
19. "It has all created what I call an infinite front: a digital surface area that exposes nearly every single hard aspect of human civilization to cyber risk. Tractors with firmware. Power plants that can automatically adapt to changing power grid dynamics. Warehouses that automatically pick, pack, and ship. Air conditioners that know when you are on vacation.
The world of atoms, not just bits, will soon need robust cybersecurity platforms well beyond current offerings."
https://steinman.substack.com/p/tales-from-the-infinite-front
20. "The safest strategy is to be diversified. And with diversification comes more exposure. At any given point something, somewhere in your portfolio will be going belly up.
The days of stashing everything in Singapore or Geneva and feeling 100% safe are gone. The "new world" we have to live in will be marked by tension, betrayal, and extremely aggressive governments and people."
https://mailchi.mp/1b0552af0181/true-safe-havens-do-not-exist-anymore
21. Andrew Tate is always entertaining. Don't agree with everything but he has a great take on life in general which we need more of.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uq4cDv2cUoE
22. "YCombinator has cut the number of startups it is funding and training this summer by about half compared to its winter program, a spokesperson confirmed. The famed Silicon Valley accelerator responded to a downturn in the economy and in venture capital funding in reducing its class size.
The move means as many as 250 companies will pitch themselves to potential investors in early September at Y Combinator’s virtual demo day, a biannual rite of passage that helped launch DoorDash and Coinbase. A smaller class could make it easier for graduates to raise money by lowering the competition for investor attention. The downsizing also follows mounting criticism that Y Combinator had grown too large, damaging its reputation for churning out Silicon Valley’s best startups."
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/y-combinator-slashes-startup-accelerator-class-size-by-40
23. Always a good conversation. So many good insights from Balaji.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXHbToq1SDU
24. This actor was great as Storm Shadow in Snakes Eyes. Total bad ass.
https://www.menshealth.com/entertainment/a40707524/andrew-koji-bullet-train-interview
25. "You should be getting into boxing, BJJ, and other martial arts. You should train with weapons of all kinds, from knives to guns. Help your friends get on the path and pass these skills on to your children. One aspect of forging a warlike nature however, is not talked about nearly enough.
Americans are involved in the fighting arts. Many own weapons and train with them, but the bar continues to slide left, accumulating speed as it goes. It’s not enough to train if you don’t have the Will to Fight.
Ok — I’m not here to tell you to make stupid tactical decisions. The title of this is SURVIVAL. You must begin thinking with strategy and tactics in mind. Have the courage to fight where you can without risking the religion. Where you do fight, let it be in the shadows, away from the mainstream. Study the strategy and tactics of the enemy. Formulate superior methods to both avoid detection and dominate when conflict is inevitable."
https://resavager.substack.com/p/survival-in-the-warrior-religion
26. "Sanctions used to be a bit of a joke, but no longer. The financial sanctions that the U.S. and Europe have leveled against Russia since the invasion of Ukraine have been absolutely devastating. A new paper by Sonnenfeld et al. shows just how devastating, leveraging independent data sources to paint a grim picture of just about every aspect of the Russian economy.
So the question then becomes: If we had to, could we level similar sanctions against China? The likely answer is that yes, we could, but the effect would be somewhat less devastating, and the costs would be much higher.
Anyway, the upshot of this post is that China’s massive and diversified manufacturing prowess simply makes it a lot less vulnerable to sanctions than Russia. But computer chips are one area where — for the next 5 to 10 years, at least — export controls might actually hurt China. So if they seize a Taiwanese island or start a blockade, that should probably be the first economic weapon we reach for."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/could-we-sanction-china-if-we-had
27. "So long as Beijing finds Taiwan’s de facto independence intolerable then war is a serious possibility. Taiwan will become more of an armed camp ready to make China pay heavily should it try to occupy the island and will become even more determined to resist coercive pressures, including by a blockade. US prestige will become more attached to Taiwan’s defence and it will look to allies to play a role, especially if the issue is one of freedom of the seas.
It is not obvious that there is a good outcome for China if it pushes too hard, in the same way that there is no good outcome for Russia in Ukraine. Russia’s experience should warn Xi of the pitfalls accompanying any military action even when the odds look very favourable, including the risk that in the effort to take territory it wanted badly it would end up devastating the land and its people, let alone the possibility of war with the United States.
This is the peril of autocracy – a conviction that a supreme leader, beyond challenge at home and presiding over vast armed forces, should always be able to get what he wants and never needs to compromise."
https://samf.substack.com/p/russia-and-china-perils-of-autocracy
28. Super good interview with Andrew Wilkinson of Tiny Capital from Canada (Victoria!). Lots of great stuff here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9GWxg7Z3Ok
29. Slava Ukraini!
"After over five months of its full-out war, Russia is employing close to 100% of its conventional military power against Ukraine, with only limited results to show for it.
Russia is steadily losing military power as the country struggles to generate high-quality reserves. It has spent the last month refraining from large-scale operations in Donbas and elsewhere, trying to recover from previous battles.
For Ukraine, this hiatus is a window of opportunity.
While Russia is still coming around, Ukraine's military has the chance to deliver a decisive strike that would allow it to gain an edge over Russia and define the course of the rest of the war. In other words, this could be the war’s turning point.
This third phase could determine the rest of the war. If successful, it could lead to a fourth phase in which Ukraine defeats Russia."
30. Best stuff from the edge of the internet. Not Investment Advice.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=syYl_v36H2U
31. "Venture investing has also historically been very hard to do well (though a little less so over the last few years.) We're likely returning to a point where venture investing is much more difficult if you want to drive outsized returns that justify the inherent fees.
So ensuring your value-add is tangible and measurable is more than just a nice to have, and not only is it an element of long-term survival for a fund, but it should also be something investors are laser-focused on in hopes of improving their outcomes. In a world of well-measured value-add you should start to see more definitive correlation between support and outcomes.
When I talk to folks who are either building newer firms or those who are attempting to improve the way their current firm offers value I often see this sentiment: "The idea that founders shouldn't expect their investors to add value should change. There should be a reaction to actually delivering results.""
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/the-tales-of-their-usefulness-have
32. "From the Ukrainian side, they are only going to get stronger with more Western kit and financing arriving, and no shortage of motivated soldiers - surely Moscow realises now that time is not on its side. The longer it fights this war, the stronger Ukraine and the more impact that Western sanctions will have on its military capability. And remember on this latter front that for Putin the war in Ukraine is just part of the broader war with the West. And we are now entering an arms race, with NATO set to go +2% of GDP spending on defence, and Russia simply cannot match that.
Just do the maths, Western states now reigned against Russia have a combined GDP of what $40 trillion, 2% of that is $2 trillion, which is more than Russia’s entire GDP. Putin needs now to replace half his military destroyed in Ukraine, and spend even more than pre-war just to maintain some kind of military parity with NATO. The longer he continues the war in Ukraine, the longer sanctions and the less able he will be to maintain any kind of military parity with the West - at least in conventional weapons, as nukes are a separate story. Winning in Ukraine is important to Putin but would he want to jeopardise Russia’s broader security vis a vis the West by eroding its conventional military capability so much that it will struggle to counter possible NATO threats (not that I see them). And if Putin is going to try and maintain any kind of military parity with the West, surely this puts Russia back into a guns versus butter (or I-phones) scenario.
Just as an aside here on the energy crisis in Europe. Putin will play the gas card for sure, but he does have to be a bit careful. If he forces Europe, and the world, into recession as seems likely now he collapses global demand for energy and with it energy prices. He will then face the double whammy of lower export volumes and prices, so it will be ironic if only with peace comes the collapse of the Russian economy - guess you might say there it gives him an incentive to try and maintain tensions.
So summarising, my base case is a European energy crisis, brought on by Putin desperate now to get a Ukraine peace deal before year end. Big risk here is that Zelensky might not be able to sell that domestically - polls show 90% want the war to continue until all territory is regained - but lots of Western cash will be deployed to entice Ukraine to the table. But Ukraine will get big Western financing flows anyway, given the need now to build Ukraine as a defensive buffer state against Russia. And in the Schroeder peace offer, there is no way NATO would now accept a demilitarised Ukraine.
The good news for Ukraine in an early end to the war is that the economy is likely to bounce back quickly, as a result of the low base effect, the innovation shown in the war, and the huge Western financing likely to flow into Ukraine."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/putin-is-on-the-back-foot-in-ukraine
33. "You saw the frontier power of the white devil. Their experiences helped make America the world power we know today. Not only did they make the lands safe for civilization, they excelled at farming and industry, basically supplying war material for both world wars. Americans were often noted in both world wars as being much bigger than their European counterparts as well as better equipped. The American’s warlike nature is in the blood and what’s most important for our people today is remembering that strength of blood.
Early Americans not only had to know how to shoot a gun, but also hunt and fight should they situation call for it. They had to be able to transverse the wilderness. Match savagery with savagery. The True American is a warrior.
You owe it to your ancestors to not be the ignoble ends of your bloodline and country. Make yourself a warrior. A True American who knows the ways of nature and how bad things can get. Take pride in what your ancestors accomplished, don’t buy into the leftist hogwash that you should be ashamed of them. The idea that you should hate your ancestors because of racism is retarded. Everyone is racist, it’s natural, get over it. Step beyond it.
An American Warrior Religion would have the values of the frontiersman and settler, who’s very existence depends on his ability to defend the perimeter and snuff out his enemies. A Kit Carson who followed frontier code of vengeance, whenever he came upon the remains of pilgrims mutilated by Indians. Men who were hard and understood just how far the human body could go. Don’t underestimate the warlike nature in your blood. A warrior religion is first most concerned with the strength and survival of its race. Theology comes after."
https://resavager.substack.com/p/american-warrior-religion
34. This was a thorough and fascinating discussion on the future network state. Worth watching.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Vsv2tqy1Bs
35. Always a good conversation. Yes, I agree CCP is evil & needs to be destroyed but Pelosi's trip to Taiwan was self indulgent and terrible timing wise & not good for anyone. Good convo on the world economy as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlK5tsUuEP0
36. "Scalable revenue comes from selling things that don’t depend on your active time to make that sale. Josh doesn’t like the phrase “Passive Income” because so-called passive income requires a lot of upfront work to create the product, and some ongoing operations, maintenance, refinements, and monitoring, of course.
But, it is scalable. Once you’ve created whatever it is you're going to sell (especially digital products), you can sell it millions or even billions of times with little extra effort required. Or, once you’ve invested in something you can “rent” (e.g., property, ad space), you’ll make money while you’re sleeping."
https://newsletter.invinciblesolopreneurs.com/p/daily-tip-create-scalable-revenue
37. "Set Up for You: As usual, the only person who matters is you since the goal is to save yourself first. From the above and by using the general framework you can probably pick up a good suburban home over the next 6 months (rough range). Let rates go up, survive your round of cuts (Sept/Oct) then purchase in one of the areas that is seeing pricing pressure.
What happened is people pulled in their move to suburbs/homes. Since your goal is to work remote anyway (we hope) by doing WFH + WiFi on the side, it means you’ll be in a great position to get outside the major city and live in a nice place. As demand dries up, people holding the bag will be more and more desperate to sell.
By way of example, now that we know Tech cuts have moved first (Layoffs.fyi), you can see some weakness in Nevada as sales slowed and prices have come down."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/eth-update-cpiunemployment-read-housing