Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Aug 7th, 2022

Endurance is one of the most difficult disciplines, but it is to the one who endures that the final victory comes― Gautama Buddha

  1. "Building a global, decentralized computing network is impressive. So is launching a telescope into space that can take pictures of stars from billions of years ago. Innovation is all around us. It can take decades to play out, which means it is easy to lose sight of how incredible these milestones are. 

The future belongs to the builders. Everything around us has come to fruition because an individual or group decided to do the hard work to create something new. Watching the excitement around the Webb Space Telescope reminded me of how important the builders are. The bitcoin network is no different — the builders are essential to success. 

Ask yourself this question, “what am I building?” The answer should tell you a lot about where you are in your journey at the moment."

https://pomp.substack.com/p/the-builders-are-essential

2. "Many books have been written about how Buffett picks stocks. But what is more interesting is how he created conditions of longevity when he discarded the hedge fund structure in favor of Berkshire Hathaway’s permanent capital or how he evolved as an investor by cultivating new friends or mentors. There is too focus on specific actions (in his case investments) compared to the design choices he made in business and life."

https://neckar.substack.com/p/commodities-corporation-traders-innovators

3. Going to Poland in August. It’s a cool place and visiting will help Ukraine too.

https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2022/jul/12/how-a-holiday-in-poland-can-help-support-ukraine

4. "Venture activity and markups have crept back towards the “normal” line, suggesting a potential return to pre-pandemic levels of activity and tenor. Whether performance continues to fall (i.e., moves southwest) or flattens remains to be seen.

Note that, if we’re using the “Normal” line as a reference, then even venture performance during this “Pullback” period would be considered very positive by historical standards. The fact that it's seen as a downturn is a reflection of the bull run early-stage venture has been on the past 18 months."

https://www.angellist.com/blog/forecasting-a-return-to-venture-normalcy

5. Truth: relevant for all founders and probably personally too.

https://twitter.com/gokulr/status/1546956493945069569

6. Love it. Go NAFO.

"An unofficial army of cartoon Shiba Inu dogs is making life hard for people who post Russian disinformation about the war in Ukraine online. They are known as NAFO, the North Atlantic Fellas Organization, a small but growing cadre of shitposters who’ve gathered to raise money for Ukraine and call out obvious propaganda when they see it. It’s getting hard to tow the Kremlin’s party line on Twitter without them showing up in the replies to mock and counter it."

https://www.vice.com/en/article/y3pd5y/shitposting-shiba-inu-accounts-chased-a-russian-diplomat-offline

7. Absolutely spot on. Hope founders are reading and paying attention.

"Meeting an investor for the first time can come with a lot of pressure. You want to put your best foot forward, but you must be cautious not to trip over the line between enthusiasm and embellishment. Just like on a first date, investors are watching for potential red flags.

If I think you’re exaggerating, misrepresenting yourself or lying, chances are we’re not going on a second date."

https://chrisneumann.com/blog/how-to-lose-credibility-in-5-easy-steps

8. "So Musk has effectively gone on a rampage, recklessly destroying shareholder value across the board, not to mention depriving lots of investment bankers and lawyers of million dollar paydays. He has not made any friends, even Trump - possibly eyeing a return to tweeting - threw him under the bus yesterday. 

But in a very telling way Elon Musk has acted precisely like Trump by promising grandiose things and then failing to deliver. ‘Make Twitter Great Again’ would have been an interesting sub-title to the offer he made only a few months ago and which has now fallen apart spectacularly. Shareholders (of both Tesla and Twitter), employees, Twitter users and audiences, and in fact pretty much anyone else wondered what has just happened. Now it is off to a court in Delaware where the show continues."

https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/make-twitter-great-

9. "Today we can store and access pretty much anything via the cloud: books, music, movies, cars, houses, deliveries, clothes, sports equipment et cetera. We can experience everything via access without the burden and high cost of ownership.

It’s quite eye-opening to realize that > 80 percent of what we really need has nothing to do with materialism or consumption but about our relationship with ourselves, and others; our ability to learn and grow; and a clear and worthy life purpose and mission.

While society wants us to skim the surface of everything, spread our attention thinly, react and act to every promoted desire, as human beings I think we need more meaning; to dive deeper, to stay deeper, to live deeper than what’s being offered."

https://fewerbetterthings.substack.com/p/what-do-we-really-need-to-own

10. This man Is a badass and hero. Also a double trident: from US & S. Korean Navy Seals. He shares his experience in the military and fighting as a Foreign Legionnaire in Ukraine against the barbarian Russian invaders.

https://sofrep.com/news/us-exclusive-sofrep-interviews-rok-us-navy-seal-ken-rhee-about-his-recent-deployment-to-ukraine

11. "The most fascinating part of these companies to me is the potential variance of outcomes, along with the historical uniqueness. Theoretically, the distribution of company outcomes is supposed to shrink as the business grows over time. On day 0 (and again, theoretically), it can completely fail or be a $100B+ outcome and everything in the middle. In its terminal state, you should know what it is.

The consequence of yesterday’s private tech markets is that there is a generation of businesses that *look* mature on some dimensions (market capitalization, headcount, etc.) but could realistically go any which way over the next few years given the interplay of large cash piles on their balance sheets and their actual immaturity (how long they’ve been around, revenue scale)." 

https://aashay.substack.com/p/dealing-with-a-hangover

12. This was such a great episode. Discussion on Emerging markets, inflation & science. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsGdPCtquGg

13. This is a must read for all policy makers and Americans.

"To be clear, our goal should be the proliferation of carbon-free energy and a cleaner, better world for everyone. No one wants to kill the whales. But there are crippling second-order effects of this transition that we’re charging toward in blissful ignorance. Chief among them, if we don’t control our critical material supply chains, the path we’re accelerating down will lead to the end of American preeminence, and the global shift to a Chinese world order.

Put in simple terms, America and our allies lack secure access to the necessary materials for developing the next era of industry — not only solar panels, but key components of every machine in our entire technological infrastructure. Incredibly, we have given up our control of these materials by choice. Moral indignation and a sense of virtuous spite have driven us into dependence on what is clearly a geopolitical adversary, twisting us into a Chinese finger-trap. Now, as we slowly wake up and struggle, the grip tightens." 

https://www.piratewires.com/p/control-the-metal-control-the-world

14. More on what the barbarian scumbag Putin and his cronies are up to with this so called "Operational pause." May they burn in hell.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-tricks-vladimir-putin-is-cooking-up-in-his-mysterious-operational-pause-in-the-ukraine-war

15. Another example of badly thought out ESG policy. Curse the WEF & World Bank & all the stupid, corrupt unserious politicians.

"To some, the fact that Sri Lanka achieved a “near-perfect ESG score” and then collapsed is ironic. To us, it is causal. For all the nuanced specifics involved, including government corruption, insane fertilizer bans, and submission to foreign know-it-all experts, at its core, Sri Lanka collapsed because it flubbed its energy policy.

Fertilizer and food are nothing more than derivatives of energy – rather important ones at that – and Sri Lanka stands as powerful evidence that energy is indeed life, and the absence of energy is death. As videos of Sri Lankan citizens ransacking their Presidential Palace went viral on Twitter, we could not help but feel a deep sadness. Absent a massive and urgent intervention by international aid organizations (which does not seem forthcoming), no amount of protesting will win Sri Lanka’s citizens a reprieve. Akin to passengers scrambling through the banquet halls of the Titanic, their fate is sealed. Mass starvation and unthinkable suffering undoubtedly await."

https://doomberg.substack.com/p/running-from-empty

16. "If we want to make a current prediction, it would be another 12-15 months until housing becomes more “affordable” and reasonable. Justification as follows: 1) inventory all time low which means has to go up, 2) rates have to go up, 3) people have to miss multiple payments before being foreclosed/evicted and 4) layoffs still haven’t occurred so that will add another 6-8 months until true pain sets it. 

In short, the housing market is likely in round 1 or round 2 of a long boxing match with Floyd Mayweather (of course it goes to decision and housing loses since Mayweather never loses). 

What Would Cause a Sudden Swing to become positive? Three things: 1) sudden pivot and stopping rate hikes, 2) sudden pivot to printing money and 3) sudden pivot to on MBS. Right now the goal is to *reduce* MBS on the balance sheet (nothing has happened so far). After they signal they are done reducing the balance sheet then things get a lot more interesting."

https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/get-ready-for-some-re-statements

17. Eye-opening. There is a commodity boom coming, caused due to our unserious  politicians making policy based on platitudes & narrative and not on reality and physics.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFjbFkNxtFE

18. I attended Anarchapulco back in 2018. Learned a bunch of stuff but it was a wacky conference. This looks like a fun documentary.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1EA5k34PEM

19. This is sad but may become commonplace in emerging markets.

"So what lessons can other countries learn from Sri Lanka’s crisis? The U.S. isn’t in a similar situation at all, so there are relatively few lessons for us — when we have economic crises, they tend to be of a different variety. But other emerging markets can definitely draw lessons here. First, don’t do boneheaded things like banning fertilizer. Second, be careful about borrowing a ton of money from foreign governments, especially ones like China. 

But the best way to make sure you don’t have a currency crisis is to not set yourself up for one in the first place. Don’t run large and persistent trade deficits if you can’t borrow cheaply in your own currency. Don’t borrow a ton of money denominated in foreign currencies. And don’t peg your exchange rate too high. It’s always tempting to play populist and shower your people with underpriced imports in the short term. But in the long term this just never works."

https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-sri-lanka-is-having-an-economic

20. "The question of Silicon Valley’s existence borders upon the spiritual. It is a region that has birthed nearly every major technology development of the last 40 years. If you believe, as I do, that technology must jump radically forward for the human race to survive, then learning what powered the Valley’s output is worth serious study. 

The answer to the question, unfortunately, appears to be rich assholes. 

To be more specific, the answer appears to be the variety of a-hole known as a venture capitalist.

That, at least, is the thesis of The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future by Sebastian Mallaby. Mallaby posits that it was a combination of semi-unique social variables (Stanford, Hippie Culture, etc) AND a network of risk-happy, early-stage financiers that catalyzed the region’s meteoric rise. These two factors together created a self-reinforcing network of virtuous capital where each successive generation of funder and funded imparted capital and wisdom to the up and coming cohort of builders."

https://every.to/napkin-math/has-venture-lost-its-soul

21. "There is plenty of pride and emotion in this case, and it would be foolish to underestimate it. Musk may decline to negotiate a settlement because he doesn’t feel bound by the law. Twitter may refuse to settle because it feels it must stick it to Musk — who’s routinely disparaged its executives — and see the process through for the sake of its shareholders. And the Delaware Chancery Court may feel its legitimacy is at stake, and therefore opt for specific performance to demonstrate the law means something.

But a settlement that merely inconveniences Musk remains the most likely outcome. And though Twitter — which made $5 billion last year — could use his money, it will likely be deflating for the company and its shareholders after everything it’s endured."

https://bigtechnology.substack.com/p/i-dont-think-hes-screwed-at-all-musk

22. "I still think the likeliest outcome by far is that we’re able to stop great-power competition from escalating to all-out war — Cold War 2 rather than World War 3. I use the term “War Economy”, but like in the 50s and 60s, that doesn’t require an actual hot war between great powers, and I fervently hope there won’t be one.

But in any case, despite my wishes, the world is probably entering an era of intense geopolitical competition, the likes of which haven’t been seen at least since the 1970s and probably since the 1930s. And that competition has the potential to provide a legitimating mission for the reintroduction of the kind of large-scale economic planning that many people have been looking for since 2008. We may not be able to prevent the new era of conflict, but in some ways we can take advantage of it — and in any case, we must do what needs to be done."

https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-war-economy

23. Great discussion on present geopolitics & economics with Ian Bremmer and Peter Zeihan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqsVR9Hl2oQ

24. Huge fan of Simu Liu.

"By virtue of his work in Shang-Chi and Kim’s Convenience, Liu has become an outspoken advocate for Asian American and Asian Canadian representation. “We’re a generation that has pretty much only known what it’s like to grow up in the West, and therefore, I feel like we have to fundamentally shift our thinking and our paradigm,” he explains. “We have to not be afraid and not continuously apologize for our own existence the way our parents did. We have to own that space. I want to show people, even if I’m doing it imperfectly, what it means to claim your voice and to be out there.”

Doing so is made especially tricky by the reality that faces many Chinese immigrant families today: the need to straddle their places in both the West and in China simultaneously. In fact, when Liu was first cast as Shang-Chi, he unwittingly found himself at the centre of a contentious conversation about Eastern and Western beauty standards, with some in China claiming that, at least by Chinese beauty standards, Liu wasn’t handsome enough for the role. And yet he never grew up feeling like he fit Western beauty standards either. Liu, like all Chinese immigrants and their children, is torn between vastly different ideologies and cultures, trying to appease both — and, due to the deepening geopolitical divisions of recent years, that gap feels as though it’s been widening."

https://sharpmagazine.com/2022/05/23/simu-liu-profile-cover-story-bfm

25. "Many of you are working crazy jobs you hate.

If you look deeply you’ll see the three deadly sins of status, money or productivity guilt are likely to blame.

Ask yourself, “is this worth it?” Would you still be doing all this work if your doctor told you that you had incurable cancer and had four weeks to live?

Probably not."

https://medium.com/swlh/tim-ferrisss-assistant-s-sudden-resignation-serves-as-a-warning-for-trying-to-have-it-all-288003e67030

26. "Xi is in trouble because the economy is faltering so profoundly. This is not a temporary cyclical issue. Fundamentally, China cannot deliver on the promises it made its citizens. It cannot make people get rich before they get old. It is no longer the cheapest or best place to manufacture things. It’s no longer much fun because the Social Credit System is recording and prescribing every little thing you can do in China.

And, now there are lockdowns. Are the lockdowns really only for COVID? Or, are they also an easy way to keep the public from protesting as the economy goes negative and starts to raise questions as it destroys savings? It was easy for Xi to consolidate his grip on power when the Chinese economy was not just doing well but perceived to be “the future” of the world economy. But, the cracks in the social contract are now overwhelming. It changes the complexion of China’s future to the point that there may be no recovery in China even if the world economy settles down.

China is no longer the cheapest or the best place to make things. It can no longer attract foreign capital for its industry or foreign buyers for its output. China is extremely vulnerable to inflation, which is already ripping through the economy, fuelling protests, and increasing the need to prevent protests. Would a confrontation over Taiwan help Xi retain his grip on power? He may think so. Why? Because nothing allows a leader to align the citizens behind them and wrest power from challengers like war. If the Social Credit System isn’t enough to keep Xi’s opponents quiet, the mere threat of war will. The new aircraft carriers might not scare the US Navy. But they might scare China’s citizens."

https://drpippa.substack.com/p/taiwan

27. China is not the brilliant well run dynamo everyone believes it to be. (Not that US or anyone is particularly well run either).

"Americans didn’t really seem to notice that slowdown. Instead, after China bounced back more quickly than other countries from the initial Covid shock, the dominant narrative became one of Chinese triumph and the eclipse of the U.S. and its rich-world allies. 

Such maximalist narratives are nearly always overblown, however, and this one was no exception. In the middle of 2021, China embarked on a series of policy experiments that have brought its economy crashing back to Earth. These included an arbitrary crackdown on the consumer internet industry, an attempt to curb the real estate sector that sparked a huge crash, and a “zero-Covid” policy that threatened to trap the country in an eternal cycle of lockdowns. As a result, China’s GDP growth has now officially slowed to just 0.4%, and given China’s well-known tendency to smooth its GDP numbers, it’s likely that the true number is negative; China is probably now in a recession.

Of course, a recession doesn’t spell doom for the Chinese growth story; countries typically bounce back after recessions. (A maximalist narrative that “China is over” would be just as overblown as last year’s narratives of Chinese invincibility.) The country’s leadership is now hastily backtracking on many of the policies that triggered the slowdown. But so far the reversals don’t seem to be having the desired effect, and the picture that’s emerging is of a Chinese policy apparatus that is far less omnipotent and infallible than many in the U.S. have assumed. If China is going to right its growth ship, I think its leaders are going to need to reexamine the way that decisions have been made in the country in recent years."

https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/china-is-flailing

28. "Did a young Buffett read a lot? Yes, he certainly did. Did he spend all his time churning through annual reports, newspapers, books, and trade journals enough? No. Buffett understood how to balance his stack of reading materials with a solid travel schedule. He did not expect to solve the world’s investment puzzles solely from the comfort of his desk.

He built and maintained relationships that allowed him to source and discard ideas and evolve as an investor (not to mention enrich his life). Just think about the influence that Munger had on his pivot towards quality investing."

https://neckar.substack.com/p/the-reading-obsession

29. "I’ve said before that the entire American tech industry is going through a midlife crisis at the moment, but Instagram seems to be aging the worst of anybody. For most millennials, it’s now the main way you follow life updates from friends, but it’s also a place to buy clothes and discover new restaurants, but it’s also TikTok for people who still drink White Claw, but it’s also a reality show/propaganda distribution system for influencers and celebrities, but it’s also a Snapchat-stye feed of ephemeral content, but it’s also an NFT marketplace. And somewhere in there, it connects to Facebook Messenger somehow. It’s a mess!

Now, you might say that other social networks are similarly bloated with all kinds of gizmos and hoo-has, but not actually, not really."

 https://www.garbageday.email/p/building-a-new-titanic-on-the-deck

30. “First of all, the remote worker is spending consumption dollars in the local economy,” he explains. “More than that, they are also making connections with the local entrepreneurs.”

Choudhury thinks skill-sharing is one of the biggest opportunities for countries, noting that it will be important for them to try and attract the right kind of nomads who can add value to the local community. He points to the Start-Up Chile programme as an historic example. Launched in 2010, it provided visa and cash incentives for foreign entrepreneurs to spend a year in Chile developing their own start-ups and mentoring local talent. At the time, Chile had only a nascent start-up scene. A decade later, thanks to the interchange of ideas, Chilean entrepreneurs have now launched unicorns valued over $1 billion dollars, including vegan food tech company NotCo and on-demand grocery deliver app Cornershop.

“It’s a good example of how an ecosystem can be created if you invite talented foreigners into your country even for just a year,” Choudhury explains. Those who stand to gain the most from the digital nomad visas are emerging economies or smaller nations that’ve traditionally lost talent to bigger countries, he adds: “Before, companies used to be fighting for talent. Now, countries and regions are fighting for talent, too.”

https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20220707-the-digital-nomad-visas-luring-workers-overseas

31. This is incredibly fascinating. The Fourth Turning and how Cycles and Generations in history show where the world is going. Worth watching.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lX1Csk2vn5A

32. "He and I had grown up in a world where $1b valuation was rarified air and you assumed that most markets were winner take most. Instead we were seeing private investors accelerate companies to — and well past — the $1b threshold, and many of these valuations growing even further in the public markets. It seemed that the outcomes were bigger than we ever anticipated and each vertical could create multiple huge winners because of market size, massive global reach, and so on.

Paraphrasing, he basically said this was “either what it looks like when ‘software eats the world’ or things had gotten overheated.”

Looking back now it’s easy to insist it’s just the latter, but I’m inclined to believe that both are true. There’s been a lot of chatter about how consumer habits were supercharged during peak pandemic and have now snapped back to normal. We forget that ‘normal’ was still pretty rapid movement to online connectivity, services and shopping. That’s not changing. At the same time, the back offices of SMBs/SMEs have started to SaaS’ify at an increasing rate. And they’re not going back either."

https://hunterwalk.medium.com/these-two-questions-are-all-you-need-to-understand-the-next-few-years-of-venture-startups-94481b8a86f1

33. "Japan and the European Union (EU) are both engaging in Yield Curve Control (YCC), either explicitly or implicitly. YCC is when a central bank engages in the price fixing — more commonly known as “manipulation” to us non-central bankers — of government bond yields. The central bank prints fiat currency, and then purchases its own bonds to artificially cap yields where they wish. Remember — when the price of the bond goes up, the yield goes down. This intervention weakens the domestic currency, ceteris paribus."

https://cryptohayes.medium.com/a-samurai-a-knight-and-a-yankee-211bf975a31d

34. Very good discussion on how to use Rock, Pebble & Sand framework of project management and prioritization.

https://longform.asmartbear.com/docs/rocks-pebbles-sand

35. "It would be a lot easier if we knew in advance when our businesses would no longer be economically viable. We could plan ahead and start something new well in advance of when our businesses are going to get disrupted by something else. Since we can’t predict the future, we should plan assuming that our business may no longer exist in the near future. There are two ways to do this: get your finances in order and adopt a portfolio model of doing business.

Whether you’re an entrepreneur or an employee, it’s very likely the business that you’re involved with ten or twenty years from now won’t be the same business you’re involved in today. We shouldn’t be surprised when some outside force causes us to make a job or a business transition. It’s going to happen sometime, so be prepared for it."

https://www.mattpaulson.com/2014/09/your-business-will-fail-eventually-heres-what-to-do-about-it

36. Very helpful stuff.

"Do want to build a brand? Go sell some software. Want to improve your brand perception? Go sell some software. Want to have a distinctive brand visual territory? Go sell some software. You see the pattern.

Some startups put the cart in front of the horse. Don’t do that. Found a company. Create a product. Get product-market fit (PMF), i.e., determine some problem you solve for some person with some product.

You don’t need a brand before you have PMF. Go get PMF. Go sell some software to prove there’s a market. Then you can start thinking about branding. Then people start to wonder about some of those brand-y questions, like who are you and what do you stand for?

In this post, I’ll use a six-point branding framework and share my thoughts on how each element applies (or doesn’t) to startups."

https://kellblog.com/2022/07/17/practical-thoughts-on-branding-for-software-startups

37. China is in bigger trouble than people think.

https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1548523247825993728

38. "Traveling around the world for 6 months or so while working remotely to ride out the economic turmoil in places where their incomes maintain a higher standard of living. Ie: a quasi-temporary snowbirding.

This is most likely what will happen moving forward. People that want to maintain self-sovereign lifestyles will leverage remote work and other digital age opportunities to maintain their lifestyles. They’ll look to relocate temporarily or semi-permanently to avoid economic hardships, unfavorable policies, and live the life they want to.

The bottom line is that you cannot afford to ignore the war in Ukraine.

You can’t ignore how Russian aggression impacts fuel supplies. Or how Western nations scramble to maintain their green energy policies while lack of fuel causes their economies to implode. 

These factors will impact your ability to make choices with minimized outside influence. But if you pay attention, you might be able to take action to maintain the continuity of your lifestyle."

https://dougantin.com/personal-sovereignty-the-global-economy

39. This is really really educational.

Good discussion on how the West is under siege by extremists internally. PC Progressives out of control. (not to say the nutters on Right are any better either).

Amplified by our enemies in China & Russia.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=739KAsb0g1Q

40. Good advice.

"If there is one thing I have learned from my (almost) 59 years, it is that every crisis is an opportunity in disguise — a chance to grow. And in every way. Both personally and financially.

But to understand it, you must have the right mindset.

Indeed, it only takes a little to change everything and take full advantage of what life offers.

It all depends on how you look at things and how you look at you life."

https://medium.com/@pvieljeux/why-this-coming-recession-could-be-the-opportunity-of-a-lifetime-3c058840e43b

41. "If you don’t like the idea of living in an economic technocracy where you’ll be required to rely on the services of mega-corporations to survive, there will always be places you can go to avoid this. Sure, you may have to give up familiarity, your friends, and some of the more modern services you’re used to at home, but this may be a small price to pay if you desire to live a more free existence, instead of living a shadow of one.

And if you live in the west, maybe one of the only solutions to attaining this kind of existence will be to go where these companies aren’t.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again—maybe now is the time you start taking steps towards acquiring that second passport or seeking new nations to become a resident of. It may take time—possibly years—to take the steps needed to make this happen, so the best time to get started is now."

https://abundantia.substack.com/p/ownership-is-dead

42. "Conclusion and Action Items: This downturn is not going to be like any other down turn. It never is otherwise everyone would make the right choices at the right time.

If you needed a car? Wait 6 months for the delinquencies to hit the used market. 

If you want a home? You should be one of the happiest people assuming you’re a cash buyer. 

If you run a WiFi Business that is profitable? You’re going to see socio-economic jumps like you’ve never experienced before. In 2008-2009 it was one of the ONLYtimes in the last 20 years to jump 1-2 socioeconomic classes. 

6-12 months Buys: Cars and first time homes if you have the income to support it. 

High-Risk Buys: Likely around when the Fed stops hiking, which could be as early as October or as late as 2023. The key point here is that crypto/tech will price in hikes RAPIDLY. If you’ve been watching the stock market you can go back in time and check the NASDAQ after 2008-2009. Incredible gains."

https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/quick-market-changes-its-not-the

43. Hope this Russian army collapse happens soon. The reality is logistics really matter.

https://nadinbrzezinski.medium.com/logistics-collapse-945984f5d48e

44. "To start, then, maybe McCormick will be among the cohort of multi-million-dollar one-person organizations that proliferate in the next 20 years. McCormick launched his free Substack newsletter Not Boring at the start of the pandemic and has managed, over these two and a half years, to become a man of the moment. He’s grown his audience from 400 readers in March 2020 to over 125,000 as of June 2022, raised two funds off the hype of that audience and the quality of his words, and made at least 30 investments in startups of all sizes.

And he’s done it all without the help of a full-time team. Instead, he’s tapped into a range of companies to get set up — a clunky toolbox of products and services that don’t work very well with each other but are effective and sharp on their own, and are still miles ahead of what we had access to five years ago."

https://meridian.mercury.com/packy-mccormick-one-man-show

45. Interesting experiment.

"Cabin is built by creators, for creators. On web2, creators might have made money off YouTube, TikTok, Gumroad, or Substack. On web3, the same creators might make money at Cabin.

“People underestimate the extent to which low barriers of entry to work completely change the nature of a firm,” Hillis explains to me over cups of tea, speaking quickly despite the need for caffeine. He drinks earl grey. My choice is spearmint.

“If you look at a typical company, the founders and investors own 80-90%,” he goes on. “All of the employees own the other 10-20%. It doesn't make sense. It's not who is producing most of the value. We wanted to flip that model on its head. With the DAO, the community controls 80% of the tokens; the founders and strategic partners control 20%.”

https://meridian.mercury.com/how-jonathan-hillis-cabin-became-a-dao

46. "Devotion to Heracles is the act of lifting in the gym, to get stronger. It’s venturing out into nature to conquer terrain and hunt. It’s doing these things with your friends to build cohesion and loyalty unseen in modern times. Devotion to Heracles is taking care of your own as Heracles did for the Thebans he grew up with. It’s choosing the long and unforgiving road of virtue over the easy road of comfort and excess. It’s undertaking great labors in the pursuit of the Great Work and Undying Glory.

There is no better path for the dispossessed American than the path of Heracles. These times have made us soft and weak. Americans are in dire need of labors, of exerting their will. They — as Heracles had to — must choose between the easy road of safety and comfort or the long and unforgiving road of virtue.

No American is innocent in this, we all bare responsibility for what’s come to pass. Will you take the steps to correct course and bring salvation to our people?"

https://resavager.substack.com/p/the-sons-of-heracles

47. Fingers crossed. Slava Ukraini!

https://kyivindependent.com/national/what-would-a-ukrainian-counter-offensive-in-kherson-look-like

48. This is why you need to be rich, be connected, have a solid crew be trained and armed. For Freedom from the garbage being pushed by the Mainstream media & elitist Davos crowd.

"Conclusion and New Set Up: At this point the objective is clear (to us). As food prices go up and a focus on sustainability becomes more popular we’ll see people slowly justify their decisions. If it becomes socially acceptable to eat tons of bugs, the virtue signaling will kick in. They are not eating bugs because it is more affordable. They are eating bugs to “do the right thing and help the environment”

This playbook has worked for a long time. Making a new moral angle around extremism. 

Up to You to Decide: As usual there is no fun in talking about the past since it doesn’t add much. The question is if this is actually part of the strategy to normalize a lower quality of life under the guise of “sustainability”. In a few years we’ll find out! You have our best guess right here already though. Normalization is part of the plan."

https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/slippery-slope-govt-lowering-standards

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