Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads December 29th, 2024
“Your most important work is always ahead of you, never behind you.” – Stephen Covey
"Recognizing the importance of timeliness, thoughtfulness, enthusiasm, effort, and consistent communication can significantly strengthen these relationships. Entrepreneurs would do well to evaluate their current level of interaction and look for opportunities to enhance or improve it."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/11/23/the-quality-of-entrepreneur-interactions/
2. "By the early 12th century, Georgia stood at a crossroads. For nearly a century, the Caucasus had been a battleground in the Seljuk Wars, a protracted and brutal conflict between the Christian kingdoms of Byzantium, Georgia, Armenia, and Outremer and the expansive Seljuk Empire. The Seljuks, masters of a vast domain stretching from Bukhara to Baghdad, sought to tighten their grip on the strategically critical Caucasus region.
The Georgians, despite enduring years of devastation, retained an unbroken spirit. Under the leadership of King David IV, known to history as David the Builder, Georgia mounted a resistance that would culminate in one of the most stunning military triumphs of the medieval era: the Battle of Didgori.
This clash, fought on August 12, 1121, has been immortalized in Georgian memory as a miraculous victory against overwhelming odds. For David, the battle was not merely about survival but about reclaiming Georgia’s sovereignty and ensuring its place as a bastion of Christian power and culture in a tumultuous region."
https://varangianchronicler.substack.com/p/wolves-of-kartli
3. "F1 has long had large and rabid fan bases in Europe and South America, but that enthusiasm didn’t land on U.S. shores until 2017, when Liberty Media bought a controlling interest in the league. Under new boss Greg Maffei, F1 took a big swing at America. Targeting young people, Maffei and the F1 Team built an iconic brand, in the most competitive market, in less than a decade. There were races with celebrities in attendance — Tom Cruise, LeBron James, Rihanna — new sponsorships, and an aggressive social media presence.
However, Liberty’s gangster move was the Netflix docuseries Drive to Survive. Now in its sixth season, the show is rewriting the playbook re how sports leagues market themselves. It’s a behind-the-scenes look at “a lot of young, good-looking guys,” as Maffei once told CNBC, hard-charging billionaire team owners, and high-tech pit crews competing in a series of überluxe international locations. (F1 wasn’t the first to try this; the NFL’s Hard Knockspremiered on HBO back in 2001.)
By focusing on individuals and harnessing the power of storytelling, Drive to Survive used streaming to introduce U.S. viewers to drivers who were superstars overseas, among them Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen. It gave newbie (read: American) fans a compelling point of entry and became a fount of bingeable video that was easily shared, particularly on Instagram. There are accounts devoted to what Hamilton wears as he walks on red carpets.
Tribal rivalries, betrayal, greed, revenge — all the stuff humans are hardwired to love in a lustrous package every week. Champions muse about “having a target on my back.” Young guns talk about “being hungry.” Everybody obsesses about forces beyond their control. Shakespeare knew this turf pretty well — Marcus Aurelius would have felt at home. The song remains the same; the actual game being played is unimportant.
The results: Liberty paid $4.6 billion for F1; it now has a market cap of about $22 billion. In 2023, F1 generated about $3.2 billion in revenue, up from $2.6 the year before, most of it from promotional deals with host cities, media rights, and team sponsorships."
https://www.profgalloway.com/f1-is-at-an-inflection-point/
4. "That same feeling of inquisitive frustration was peaked by something I tweeted this week. An exceptional question that Tyler Hogge asked Marc Andreessen. A similar complicated multi-variate problem is "which part of the startup value chain is the constraint preventing us from 10x'ing the number of exceptional startups?"
First, what is an exceptional startup? At one point, Theranos, WeWork, Hopin, and FTX would have been considered exceptional startups. Do we want more of those? I think there is a mix of outcomes we want. We want more small business, even if they're lifestyle businesses. But we especially want more large outcomes that push human progress forward.
Second, what are we trying to unlock? Why do we want 10x the number of great startups? There is so much animosity against ambition, progress, technology as an industry. But the reality is that the protests of people who hate Elon Musk or hate technology is a privilege that, in large part, is enabled by (1) democratic freedoms that America affords, and (2) privilege engendered by the progress of the same technology those people now hate. But despite those protests, progress is good. And I desperately want more of it.
Finally, third, what is the bottleneck? What is the constraint that, if addressed, could unlock 10x more of what we're trying to unlock from question 2?"
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/the-levers-of-innovation
5. Important discussion on the rise of massive VC funds. This is critical for founders to understand.
Are you working with a 2% fund or 20% fund: incentives matter. Worth watching.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqT014gNssU
6. "The distortions to credit, money, asset prices, and the economy that arose under the non-system cannot be unwound quickly. A rapid reversal could probably only be accomplished via deflation and depression or, alternatively, a hyperinflation—events that would bring huge socioeconomic disruption and likely political dislocations. To prevent such an outcome, governments will increasingly see their role as managing the wealth of the nation to ensure that the imbalances of the non-system are unwound gradually.
This greater government action will make it very difficult for savers to preserve the purchasing power of their wealth. For those who wish to attempt to do so, it is time to take the radical step of preparing to benefit from a fixed-asset investment boom in the United States and across the “friend-shoring” world, which is the antithesis of what has come before.
Few investors can correctly anticipate future returns. In a time of structural change, many investors, however, do not even begin by asking the right questions to assess likely future returns. Today, the key question is whether China is already moving away from its managed exchange rate regime and thus destroying the current international monetary system. Those who ask that question have a radically different outlook for the future of credit, money, asset prices, and the economy."
7. This is a great look into a top investor’s mind.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLIFDNlWGCU
8. "Things may have changed considerably since the time of Xanthippus. Still, one thing has remained the same: even in our modern world of digital transactions, strict reporting, and ‘Know Your Customer’ laws, paying very little or no tax is not only possible, but easier to achieve than you might think.
And it won’t require dedicating all your assets to a Greek god, either.
The only main caveat? You can’t be an employee in order to achieve zero tax.
If you’re employed by someone else, the avenues to reduce what you have to pay to the state are almost non-existent. This is because, by default, your taxes will usually be taken from your paycheck and sent to the government before it ever hits your bank account."
https://anticitizen.com/p/death-and-taxes
9. "Gold is a small part of my portfolio, but that’s all I need. The bet is asymmetric. I’ve acquired gold passively over time, dollar-cost averaging into my position without ever putting a disruptively large portion of my net worth at stake. It’s a long game, not a sprint.
In a way, it’s like how I approach combat sports. Fighting has never been a primary focus of mine, but I’ve consistently invested a small amount of energy into it over the years. The results have compounded. The skill has become part of me, though it’s rarely useful. And yet, possessing it carries no downside.
Much like gold, fighting is an asset of low utility most of the time. It’s done very little for me compared to other skills like reading or writing. Over the years, there have been almost no occasions where I’ve needed to defend myself physically. Almost.
But in that rare, Black Swan event—the one-in-a-decade moment where you need it—the value of the skill skyrockets. That’s asymmetry: a small investment, low carrying cost, and an outsized return when you least expect it."
https://jaymartin.substack.com/p/id-rather-be-caught-with-it-than
10. Off season travel can be fun and more bang for your buck. Good list of European cities in Winter.
https://www.thrillist.com/travel/nation/best-european-cities-to-visit-in-winter
11. Expect this hidden covert war in Africa to continue over the next few decades. China, Russia, USA, France and UAE all have major interests there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4U0mRt64c4
12. This is a geopolitical conversation that goes very tinfoil hat. So bizarre if not entertaining.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8cBPbszHto
13. "These are the rules of the game, and they’re non-negotiable. In the Startup Hunger Games, it’s not luck that gets you out alive—it’s these principles in action. So ask yourself: Is my team strong enough? Am I agile enough? Do I have control of the numbers?
Most of you are showing up with a slingshot while someone else built a flamethrower.
In this arena, the odds are against you.
By default, you won’t survive."
https://2lr.substack.com/p/startup-hunger-games
14. Some more tin foil hat conspiracies and global macro.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJ1ajvAWAC4
15. "That is why I would say that a reputation is more aligned with the goal of building a firm. A firm is a long-term goal, not a short-term goal. A reputation is built over years. A personal brand is built through virality and can be built within days or weeks - that might not always be the case, but a reputation is never built over days."
https://embracingemergence.beehiiv.com/p/building-a-reputation-not-a-brand
16. Super valuable for founders.
https://kellblog.com/2024/11/24/five-success-principles-for-startup-founders/
17. "What we are looking at, in other words, is a complete shift of the balance of power in Eastern Europe. In the short term, Poland and the Baltics will have no choice but to pick up slack and assume a stronger position in Europe than they have in memory, as they stare down the barrel of a Russia that will only be further emboldened by a de facto triumph in Ukraine and the weakening of the American security blanket in Europe.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is facing its worst-case scenario, with the spigot of U.S. support likely to turn itself off—forcing Europe to take the reins of Ukraine’s, and its own, defense for the first time in generations."
https://www.persuasion.community/p/eastern-europe-is-in-the-crosshairs
18. Europe is not well set up for the new world of war (hybrid or kinetic).
“NATO is a defensive military alliance that thinks in terms of peacetime and wartime,” General Thierry Burkhard, France’s chief of the defense staff, told the French newspaper Le Figaro earlier this month. NATO’s tools simply aren’t designed for the gray zone in “the world of competition and contestation.”
19. "There's another reason these liquid paths are in high demand. Sure, competing for a McKinsey job isn't easy, but everything from recruiting to promotions is structured and streamlined. Job seekers and employers are cushioned from uncertainty and ambiguity in a way that only becomes obvious when you consider the counterfactual. Moreover, one can also more reliably predict future income and gain psychological security (or at least perceived security) around one’s career trajectory.
Given these hidden benefits, you'd expect these paths to be crowded. That’s one argument in favor of pursuing non linear, illiquid paths instead. You should expect “alpha” in these paths precisely because lots of smart, conscientious people are terrified of uncertainty. Maybe you can afford to be less of those things if you're willing to be brave?
In financial markets, illiquid assets often command a premium - investors accept lower liquidity for the prospect of higher returns. I can't prove empirically that this is replicated in human capital markets but that's a reasonable prior."
https://www.optimaloutliers.com/p/liquid-vs-illiquid-careers
20. "This and similar adventures by Moscow in the post-Soviet space do not bode well, from a Ukrainian standpoint, for negotiations with the Kremlin. Ukrainians, as well as other nations and ethnicities of the former Tsarist and Soviet empires, have, over the centuries, accumulated many bitter experiences with Russian imperialism, which is—once again—Moscow’s barely disguised ideology.
These historical lessons advise not only Kyiv but also Helsinki, Tallinn, Riga, Vilnius, Warsaw, or Prague that Ukraine must reach, at least, partial victory before entering meaningful negotiations with Russia. Only when facing military disaster will Moscow engage in a genuine search for a diplomatic solution that may be acceptable to Kyiv and have the potential to hold."
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-diplomacy-can%E2%80%99t-end-ukraine-war-209268
21. Such a great convo if you want to understand the Defense-tech drone space. These guys know what they are talking about.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nelwxvDCUks
22. "Finally, remember that while covenants are black-and-white tests, what to do when they’re breached is not. The debt provider has a lot of different cards to play, and the vast majority of debt providers are not in the “loan to own” business, so they have no desire to take control of your company. The cards they choose to play will be not only a function of the business situation, but of existing relationships and people.
Which is why I always say that your CFO should be the customer testimonial on your debt provider’s homepage. Who wants to call that loan?"
23. A very fascinating conversation with Marc Andreessen of A16Z. So many interesting takes on American culture, government and regulations & the incoming Trump admin.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ye8MOfxD5nU
24. "Between them, Sony and Kadokawa already control ten anime studios that together produce roughly a third of Japan’s annual anime output, but they currently work with many other companies. A merger could shut out these rivals, resulting in even longer wait times to bring non-Sony-Kadokawa series to screens. Anime News Network, itself a Kadokawa subsidiary, is cheerily predicting this will result in “less anime in the future, but of better quality,” but the reality is that it would take several multi-year production cycles to really assess the impact on Japan’s content machine.
One thing is for certain: if the merger happens, it might mean a more corporate approach to anime-making going forward. Both Sony and Kadokawa are publicly traded firms, but many of Japan’s content megahouses – Shueisha, Kodansha, and Shogakukan, among them -- are family owned. This is a unique feature of the Japanese entertainment landscape. In his recent (Japanese language) book All About the Manga Business, industry veteran Takeshi Kikuchi argues that privately-held companies are key to the growth of manga (and by extension anime), for they are not beholden to shareholders to deliver immediate growth, and can take a longer-term view towards nurturing talent."
https://blog.pureinventionbook.com/p/clash-of-the-titans
25. This is not good for the UK. British ag stuck between rock and hard place.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZLC8LcCaB8
26. "Ghosting refers to a sudden ending of active communication without any apparent warning or explanation. If you had an ongoing back-and-forth email thread with someone and they suddenly stop replying, that’s ghosting. And it’s unequivocally not culturally acceptable. Anywhere.
But what if you reach out to someone with a brand new request?
In Silicon Valley, it is culturally acceptable to not respond to such an email as a form of “no” (even if you know the person)."
https://chrisneumann.com/archives/in-silicon-valley-no-answer-is-an-answer
27. Another excellent episode on what’s up in tech. BG2, the best show online right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7bJtS7koQM
28. Incredible breakdown of Microstrategy's brilliant BTC strategy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KFUIhJ9ntlI
29. "When hegemony is broken, conflict returns. At worst, the strong take what they can and the weak suffer what they must. At best, innovation returns. When there is no dominant power to ensure peace, there is also no bureaucracy to ensure stagnation. No global hall monitor. The same environment that produced Sparta and Athens––one of iteration and competition––is allowed to flourish.
Hegemony brings peace, competition brings innovation.
If America slips from total hegemon to standard first power, we’ll see a much more dynamic global environment. Ideally, the US will rise to the challenge and become more competitive as well. Decentralized currency means small network states can operate with a globally valid currency––no confederate dollars. Startup founders are now using LLMs to run companies with 2 people instead of 20. The same may be true of countries."
https://americanreformer.org/2024/06/rise-of-the-dutch-republics/
30. Incredible track record but now focusing on defense-tech here.
Europe has a steep curve to overcome to get themselves technology and defense industry sovereign.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtcCqAr6Z7o
31. Really sharp kid here. Mach Industries is on the forefront of this wave of defense-related startups.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G5l-VLzpT1M&t=1411s
32. Good stuff to know!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqR_fDGTAUw&t=229s
33. A deep conversation with one of the most unique, curious and original thinkers & investors in Silicon Valley. So many great insights here. "Embrace random."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_SQ_myzmV_Q
34. "Smaller engineering teams can build more comprehensive software products faster and cheaper. Companies like Linear get to tens of millions in ARR with only tens of employees.
The positive consequence is that specific opportunities requiring considerable software development investments before getting to market will be easier to seize. The negative is that other markets will become increasingly competitive.
Beyond “pure software” opportunity and, as we wrote in this blog published earlier this year, we (and many others) now believe that specific repetitive tasks humans perform will be partially or fully automated through LLMs.
People are attacking this opportunity by building AI-first service businesses from the ground up or buying, merging, and automating existing businesses.
I heard of multiple roll-ups in accounting, healthcare, and customer service on both coasts of the US (none in Europe). Another exciting thing I encountered was a prominent film production company raising money to train a foundation model on their film archives."
https://medium.com/point-nine-news/some-thoughts-on-software-1c43db57c40f
35. The best conversation on the "innards of Silicon Valley"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2E-V6Boguo
36. Love this conversation. Making competence & results in government important again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GIjx0_8yXk
37. Good insights into Poland and its growing geopolitical & military heft. Makes sense as they are the next target of Russia after Ukraine.
Russia has partitioned Poland many times in the past history.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5kMsKWSIf4
38. "In the early days, throwaway comments might not seem like a big deal. But as the company scales, founders need to be deliberate in communicating their ideas and recommendations, ensuring their intentions are understood. A clear distinction between casual brainstorming and actionable directives helps the team prioritize effectively and avoid wasted effort."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/11/30/beware-of-throwaway-comments-as-a-founder/