Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads December 3rd, 2023
“When you give joy to other people, you get more joy in return. You should give a good thought to happiness that you can give out.”— Eleanor Roosevelt
1. "To sum it all up, I believe there is a possibility threshold of intelligence beyond which you must optimize for some components of intelligence (or maybe for specific types of knowledge) because you can no longer optimize for generalized overall intelligence and push all the major dimensions of it forward.
What will this mean for investing?
It means if this begins to happen, investors, entrepreneurs, and executives, will need to understand the tradeoff boundaries. In other words, where is it best to make tradeoffs, to what end, and how? How do the fundamental limits that drive these tradeoffs map to use cases, technologies, data, and other aspects of the intelligence supply chain?
If this is true, it means building a superintelligence may not be a winner-take-all game."
https://investinginai.substack.com/p/how-the-fundamental-limits-of-intelligence
2. "To its owner, a sports team is more than just a plaything. If you happen to have the billions it takes to acquire one, you presumably have a near-infinite number of ways to spend your money. By buying a team, an owner can reveal their inner winner — or make people forget how they made all that money in the first place.
If everything had gone according to plan, Steven A. Cohen might have been parading down the Canyon of Heroes this month. When he purchased the New York Mets in 2020 for a record-setting price of $2.4 billion, Cohen promised to restore his favorite team from childhood to glory, saying he would be disappointed if he did not bring it another World Series within “three to five years.” He then assembled the highest-paid roster in baseball history.
The ecstatic Mets nation treated the richest man in baseball like he was a free-spending folk hero. At 67, Cohen, a Stamford-based hedge-fund manager, has $14 billion according to Bloomberg, or maybe $19 billion if you believe Forbes, but at any rate, a whole lot of money — seemingly more than enough to procure a championship."
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/steve-cohen-mets-citi-field-queens-casino-bid.html
3. "DX (Developer Experience) will emerge as a key source of competitive advantage over the next decade and more.
UX emerged as a key competitive battleground in a world of many user interfaces (UIs) competing for the scarce resource of user attention.
DX is emerging as the next big battleground in a world of many application programming interfaces (APIs) competing for the scarce resource of developer commitment."
https://platforms.substack.com/p/dx-is-the-new-ux
4. Important discussion on good management in companies from one of the best.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dofw-YiBfZI
5. This is a deeply insightful conversation. Importance of Defensetech & Anduril. Thank goodness for Palmer Luckey.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kONhhKQi0pU
6. "So as an aside, how did Singapore get so rich? In fact, its development model is pretty similar to Ireland’s: a very small English-speaking country, a great education system, tons of high-skilled immigration, and an industrial policy that focuses relentlessly on attracting foreign direct investment. Singapore’s main investor is the U.S., for whose businesses Singapore acts as the “gateway” to Asia in much the same way Ireland is the “gateway” to Europe.
It’s not a model that can easily be copied by larger countries, of course, since the FDI has to come from somewhere. But Singapore has executed this small-country gameplan with amazing skill — even better, in many ways, than Ireland. (The fact that it has done this while also surviving in a rough geographic neighborhood, upholding racial diversity, and maintaining extremely low crime is even more impressive, but that’s a story for another day.)"
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/singapore-urbanism
7. "But the path to end this war does not only lead through the battlefield. We need to start thinking not just about helping Ukraine, but about defeating Russia—or, if you prefer different language, persuading Russia to leave by any means possible. If Russia is already fighting America and America’s allies on multiple fronts, through political funding, influence campaigns, and its links to other autocracies and terrorist organizations, then the U.S. and Europe need to fight back on multiple fronts too.
We should outcompete Russia for the scarce commodities needed to build weapons, block the software updates that they need to run their defense factories, look for ways to sabotage their production facilities. Russia used fewer weapons and less ammunition this year than it did last year. Our task should be to ensure that next year is worse.
But some of our money is needed too. Spending it now will produce savings down the line, and not just because we can prevent a catastrophe in Ukraine. By learning how to fight Russia, a sophisticated autocracy with global ambitions, we will be better prepared for later, larger conflicts, if there is ever a broader struggle with China or Iran. More important, by defeating Russia we might be able to stop those larger conflicts before they begin. The goal in Ukraine should be to end Russia’s brutish invasion—and to deter others from launching another one somewhere else."
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/11/us-ukraine-support-putin-defeat/675953/
8. Good articulation of the counter to Zeihan's view on China.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XupM5_zHDbM
9. A breakdown of Jack Butcher's business empire.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HH_h6TaxquI
10. This is a great framework. ACP: Audience, Community, Product. Ryan Holiday using this for his media empire.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLzrBb66C9M
11. This is a good thing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJfDKlnWYuA
12. "America’s regional posture does have weaknesses. Washington’s lack of an ambitious trade agenda is a handicap. Its relationship with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and some of its members also has underperformed.
And yet, for all its imperfections and the myriad global challenges it confronts, the United States still finds itself in a strong position. It is still where people from around the world turn when crises erupt. It is where many people from around the world still seek to emigrate. America still maintains the world’s largest economy and strongest military, and by a sizeable margin.
None of this is meant to suggest that Taiwan’s relationship with America is risk-free, especially when a US administration acts recklessly. But there is a risk for Taiwan in not aligning with a United States that is resilient and knows what it is doing externally."
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2023/11/13/2003809077
13. "The common thread in all these stories is that digital technologies that create order in autocracies are simultaneously creating chaos in democracies. Of course, it’s still far too early to tell if this pattern will persist — the effects of the printing press in 1980 were very different from its effects in 1580. But I’m very uneasy about the direction in which things are trending. A world where only totalitarian governments can lever technology to their advantage is not one I would enjoy living in."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-super-scary-theory-of-the-21st-a3a
14. "In essence, the establishment of international charter cities in Ukraine could herald a new paradigm in geopolitical dynamics, where economic interdependence fosters stability and peace. These cities, with their innovative approaches to governance, investment, and cultural integration, could become pivotal in reshaping Ukraine's role on the global stage.
As they grow and thrive, they will not only bolster Ukraine's economy but also contribute to a more interconnected and harmonious world order. This vision of Ukraine, transformed into a mosaic of thriving international hubs, offers a glimpse into a future where cooperation and progress triumph over conflict and division, setting a precedent for generations to come."
https://www.greetingsfromthefuture.org/p/game-changer-for-ukraine
15. Good teardown on a budding media empire.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2mVnQ4wn0_c
16. "We’re well aware that there is a cohort of people online hoping to “return to the past”.This is no different than praying for a time machine. It doesn’t exist and never will. Ignore every single person who tells you to “stop selling products that promote the problem”. This is a loser mentality since you are fighting reality. If you want to make it financially, spotting trends and investing your time and energy into them is the way to do it!
Once you accept that as reality, you’ll be well positioned to re-orient your headspace for the future. You’re not going to see kids playing sports outside for 6 hours a day (like you did in the 80s).
You’re going to see kids plugged into their computers 24/7/365.
Don’t Fight Reality!
We realize a lot of these trends are not exciting. People spending more money on pets than baby clothing is a weird trend. That said, there is nothing you can do to stop it.
Remember that the trend is not what you should do, it is something that you should accept as the future and reality. You don’t need to participate in any of the trends, however, you will be in the minority. The vast majority will fall into the categories listed above. There is a reason why OnlyFans is constantly growing."
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/future-of-social-life-in-the-2020s
17. “Listen, I don’t care if she’s there or not,” says Chuck. “No puffery, no hyperbole: That is one badass woman. She is smart, sharp. Dude, nothing but admiration for her. She works her ass off. Have you spent the day with her? Her schedule is ridiculous. It’s like two people. You know what’s the coolest thing, though? It’s a sneaky smart. Because what we do together is so 180 degrees from the public persona thing you see in the photographs and stuff. I wish more people could see through the glam.”
https://www.gq.com/story/kim-kardashian-men-of-the-year-cover-2023
18. "Seed has seen an influx of multi-stage and late-stage investors moving earlier. When late-stage is unattractive, Seed becomes more compelling by comparison. First, venture investors need to spend their time doing something.
And late-stage isn’t really an option right now. But Seed also offers upside with limited downside: if things work, multi-stage firms can lead future rounds and buy up more ownership. If things don’t work, firms don’t lose that much capital.
For a smaller fund like mine, this becomes a point of differentiation with founders: a $1M check doesn’t matter much to a $3B fund, but it matters a lot to me.
This manifests in the amount of work a Seed firm will do for a founder compared to a multi-stage firm. All multi-stage firms aren’t the same, of course; many treat Seed with conviction and roll up their sleeves. But this is the broader trend, and many firms do treat Seed this way. Seed is the most “artisanal” of any investment round, yet is being treated by many like financial option value.
While Seed valuations and round sizes haven’t corrected, the number of deals has slumped. We’re at a 12-quarter low in terms of deal activity."
https://www.digitalnative.tech/p/seed-investing-the-state-of-the-union
19. "True influence/authority are not products of speed, but of making each communication significant. They are also key elements for businesses, bloggers and marketers in a world drowning in information.
Here’s why: each day, in every niche, there is fierce, cutthroat competition for attention. While there are increasing numbers sharing greater volumes of ideas in various channels and platforms competing for fleeting attention spans — now armed with AI — many view the landscape with the philosophy that more is better. If you think like that, you’re wrong.
The coming backlash is against the noise. Any shiny new tools are fun, and people subscribe to new streams and users in a carefree manner as they join new networks, connect with people and see excitement surrounding them. Yet attention is finite, and slowly every user realizes it is not about getting every new thing right now to scarf down information like Kirby, it is about finding and connecting with what is meaningful."
https://www.hottakes.space/p/prepare-for-the-coming-content-backlash
20. "Even in the earliest days of a startup, if you’re building something of genuine value, there are likely customers who are ready (and eager) to buy. Learning how to identify buying signals and simplifying your buying process in order to make it easy for those customers to pay you is essential to capturing as much early value as you can."
https://chrisneumann.com/blog/make-it-easy-for-customers-to-pay-you
21. "Don’t: Argue that war machines somehow make war humane or that restricting WAI keeps war “human.” Don’t romanticize this. War is hell, and history is littered with well-intentioned inventors trying to make war more humane through deadly inventions. Nor, however, does handing a robot a machine gun somehow make the apocalypse.
As a society, we’ve been reliant on AI narratives driven by hysteria and science fiction for decades with little real-world data to push back on it. That is going to change very soon, and I think you’ll see that while warbot can be a force multiplier, it’s not going to be a silver bullet for combat especially as the technology proliferates around the world.
In fact, the most destructive employment of AI on the battlefield would be if we held ourselves to an arms control treaty that our rivals did not. The PRC in particular has a long track record of signing agreements and then blowing them off as soon as they get what they want. When the missiles start flying, I don’t want to be the only guy without a warbot fighting by his side."
https://www.breakingbeijing.com/p/dont-ban-the-war-bots
22. Learning from one of the top VCs: Thrive Capital.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3UCFuSghdc&t=46s
23. "Hollywood has saturated the market with look-alike movies. Their pipeline of films is now exploding like the Nord Stream, but with this difference—studios are still sitting on a huge pile of future bombs.
And what does a studio do with a bomb on its hands?
They have four options—and they are four kinds of ugly
You delay the film, hoping for a better market environment in the future.
You send it back for rewriting and more filming
You cancel it entirely, and write off the investment
You release it—sinking another $50 million, more or less, into marketing—and then watch it collapse at the box office.
Walt Disney may have built his company on creativity, but his successors have replaced it with an empire based entirely on brand extensions. These are now crumbling."
https://www.honest-broker.com/p/how-to-kill-a-superhero
24. Justin Waller is the man!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i654fxtQW4U
25. Love Justin Waller, so much to learn from him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HaNEHakXpUE
26. Wow, Patrick Bet David. An amazing interview. So many insights here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMPLCie1G_I
27. "I do sense that good investors that survive and thrive in venture are coming to their senses and the best part of the venture markets will continue to be reasonably priced (not Y Combinator) seed stage investing.
For great returns, the best seed investors will not just put money to work right now, but will focus on the right founders and sectors and deploy at the prices that create optionality for exits."
https://www.howardlindzon.com/p/no-wall-worry-climb-venture-marketsand-customer-limited-partner
28. Great conversation as always. SMBs will be the beneficiary of AI tools in the long run.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uFyZnUT_BEc
29. "With 50-plus countries (the number is growing all the time – the Czech Republic is one of the latest) enticing digital nomads with a visa typically lasting a year or longer, the ability to work from anywhere has become a more appetising proposition – especially with the cost of living crisis hitting pockets hard in the UK. It has really taken off after the coronavirus pandemic.
As the UK heads into winter, a fair few people will be mulling over the idea of setting up shop in another part of the world for a spell."
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/nov/04/digital-nomads-work-remotely-tech-visas
30. Didn't know Dean Philipps before this but this was really enlightening. I was impressed with him as a Presidential candidate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1hh8lcoJ1NA
31. Lots of learning here from Garry. He is not just a great investor but a great creator as well. He is also a good man.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5qAKbFLDw8
32. Good view on what’s happening in the seed stage & Series A.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uht9zOeEkFM
33. Another great summary of the Open AI saga from last weekend.