Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Jan 15th, 2023
“Don’t limit yourself. Many people limit themselves to what they think they can do. You can go as far as your mind lets you. What you believe, remember, you can achieve.” —Mary Kay Ash
Valuable discussion with Keith Rabois on the startup world in the beginning of 2023: lots to learn from this conversation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CD5yIUcFWdo
2. Lots of knowledge bombs from Luke Belmar. Sharp dude and we can all learn here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uuk8j0DJoiM
3. This is a good demographic overview for Europe. It's a bit grim.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGkELtG8IMw
4. Ehrlich and his de-growth movement have done nothing but hurt society and the environment ironically. This movement btw is deeply entrenched and propagated by the Schaub and the WEF.
"Ehrlich represents that segment of the environmental movement that wants fewer humans to live less well on this planet. For this group, the nuclear power renaissance seemingly happening all over the world, as well as the recent nuclear fusion breakthrough, is hardly good news.
Not only do they see abundant, cheap, reliable power as energizing more consumption, but it might eventually remove climate change as a reason for humans to have a lighter environmental footprint. The threat of a chaotic climate has served such worriers well after their 1970s predictions of impending starvation and resource depletion didn’t pan out."
https://fasterplease.substack.com/p/paul-ehrlich-interview-on-60-minutes
5. This is how critical microchips are to the world. Important to understand.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWLVVBOX0zs
6. Still a believer in the Creator economy, it was never as great as folks said before, and it's not as bad as this article reports.
It will come back and believe this is the future of distribution of Consumer goods.
"After years of hype, the Creator Economy is slamming into reality. Influencer programs are shuttering. Investment is drying up. And worsening economic conditions are threatening to crush creators and the tech infrastructure behind them."
https://www.bigtechnology.com/p/the-creator-economy-was-way-overblown
7. New supply chains are being set now. A new world of ally-shoring and redundancy: which means higher prices and inflation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2FYLe_Ci8EY
8. "Tiger Global’s plan to invest $1 billion of its leaders’ personal money in early-stage venture funds backfired when its limited partners balked at the strategy. The pushback showed how even the most prolific venture fundraisers have come under more pressure from their LPs.
Tiger’s change of heart damaged its reputation with some of the startup investors, which could make it harder for the firm to win startup deals in the future."
9. Love this show: this week is really damn good. Good setup for 2023.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3UjMit3xGY&t=765s
10. Love this: be disciplined and be patient. Know the fundamentals and don't be a victim to volatility. Key to investing in everything.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMIkvWQzHgs
11. Some good macro economic predictions for 2023. Interesting data points for the discerning investor.
https://haymaker.substack.com/p/2023-whats-trending-whats-ending
12. An amazing overview of the microchip landscape and its effect on geopolitics. It’s so important to understand.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S7mBPyJHkrs
13. "Plotted on a map, such a coalition would bear an uncanny resemblance to the federation proposed by Józef Piłsudski in the years immediately following the First World War.
This Intermarium (from the Latin for “between the seas), Marshal Piłsudski believed, would protect the smaller countries of Eastern Europe, not only from the threats posed by either Germany or Russia, but also from the nightmare scenario of an alliance between Germany and Russia."
https://tacticalnotebook.substack.com/p/intermarium-20
14. Very big fan of Lux Capital and Anduril and Defense-tech in general. Mr Wolfe is super smart dude. Defense-tech matters as Ukraine has shown us.
"Across the Valley, that sentiment seems to be winning converts. Amid increasing tensions with China, a renewed Cold War with Russia and a flood of support for embattled Ukraine, Wolfe and other investors believe the tech world is coming around to their way of thinking.
“Silicon Valley for the last 10 years—maybe up until 2021—was very hostile to defense as a whole, and that’s definitely changing,” said Lucas Bagno, an investor who has backed defense tech startups for the generalist firm Village Global. After years of unpopular wars, Bagno sees within venture ranks a newfound appreciation for the U.S. military and an eagerness to aid in its modernization.
Isaac Hasson, an investor at Vine Ventures, has seen VCs who previously would never have touched a defense company suddenly throwing their hat in the ring. “Before the decade is closed, I think that you will have very few top-tier funds with no exposure to defense,” he said. The numbers back up that prediction: According to PitchBook, the past two years have shattered records for venture investment in aerospace and defense tech companies, with an average of $6.7 billion invested per year, triple the number for 2019.
For proof that working with the government can be good business for startups, VCs look no further than Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which has scored $1.2 billion in contracts for national security since 2020.
If you ask Wolfe, the new groundswell of support couldn’t have come soon enough.
“There’s a reawakening to the reality of the world: It isn’t just Kim Kardashian and Kanye [West] and popping bottles and crypto bubbles. There are bad actors and there are bad people,” he said. “If you go to Anduril and talk to the employees, they really feel a sense of purpose in a way that the employees at Facebook don’t. There’s much more meaning in truly saving human lives.”
15. The most important but relatively unknown company in the world that helps drive the growth of the microchip revolution: ASML. This is a great documentary on them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSVHp6CAyQ8
16. The problems with Venture capital go all the way to LPs, not just with the funds. The more things change, the more they say the same.....not in a good way.
"If ever there was a moment for the institutions that fund VCs to use their leverage and push back — on how fast funds are raised, or the industry’s lack of diversity, or the hurdles that must be reached before profits can be divided — now would seemingly be the time.
Yet in numerous conversations with LPs this week, the message to this editor was the same. LPs aren’t interested in rocking the boat and putting their allocation in so-called top tier funds at risk after years of solid returns."
17. This is funny but yet it’s also a serious issue. This is everyday for me in Silicon Valley.
Surrounded by so many successful and younger investors and founders than me, you feel like a loser all the time.
https://junglegym.substack.com/p/how-to-cope-when-you-meet-someone
18. Good way to think about the future. A threat on the emerging markets and how to position yourself personally and business wise.
https://mobile.twitter.com/BowTiedRobin/status/1612132592236597248
19. This is a good discussion on the future of work. Millerd has written THE book on careers, being self employed and how to thrive in this new environment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-Bx_EYQV6o
20. "Instead, if you’re at all worried about modern-day Fuggers shaping our world to benefit themselves, and gradually removing your ability to access equal business opportunity, you’ll have to take radical control of your own personal situation.
In other words, there’s never been a better time to make yourself as immune as possible from the machinations of the über-powerful.
Make 2023 the year you finally decide to detach yourself from living within the bounds of just a single nation, and take steps to acquire a second (or maybe third) citizenship or residency in a country that’s more open and free. Because while Europe and the West may be going down an obvious path of big government and increased regulation, the rest of the world isn’t so quickly following this trend.
Or spend this year focusing on increasing your independent income, or making smart investments that will grow your own personal wealth to safeguard your quality of life for the future. Or take steps to reorganise your business by offshoring it in a nation like Georgia, to lower your tax liability while increasing freedom of business opportunity.
Maybe it’s time to do what I do at the start of any new year: write two or three high-level goals that will increase my level of overall life freedom."
https://abundantia.substack.com/p/those-sneaky-fuggers
21. This is a solid discussion on the importance of understanding geopolitics in the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNruT_lV53Q
22. Defense-tech is here. Peace through strength. Good convo with Trae Stephens of Founders Fund & Anduril.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9SdKN3FBL4
23. "No Man’s land. At this point you’re likely a millionaire particularly if you include home equity.
The problem is that your ability to move the net worth range is collapsing. While you may be making $400K instead of $200K (a few years ago), when you factor in some lifestyle inflation, higher taxes and likely more responsibilities (unless single), it’s tough to save more than $100-150K *post tax*. This would be a 5.0-7.5% move to your net worth if you have $2,000,000. Only 10-20 more years of grind!
Upper Class. If you pierce the upper class, the math is clear as day. If you return 10% on $10,000,000 that is *more* money than an upper middle class person can earn in *two years*. This also assumes you have *no* income. Highly unlikely situation.
The Real 4% Rule: Now you can see why people get stuck in No-Mans land. If you want a phrase for this… it is HENRY (High Earning Not Rich Yet).
When you work for an entire year and struggle to *save* a 5% move to your net-worth… de-motivation sets in."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/going-through-levels-of-wealth
24. This is sad to me. I hope Barry and DCG are able to get through this.
They are in a tough spot like many big players in Crypto these days.
https://newsletter.banklesshq.com/p/anatomy-of-the-dcg-dumpster-fire
25. Fascinating discussion on why Japanese software has been terrible up until recently: Keiretsu structure and bad incentives. But it's changing fast.
"As we talk here together at the start of 2023, what does the future look like for Japanese software?
Japan has had a lot of catching up to do over the past fifteen years. After basically sitting out the global PC and dot-com revolutions, Japanese software developers have been making up for lost time and in the startup space. Japan is developing a competitive software market in some areas, but on average, there is still a long way to go.
Japan’s once dominant Systems Integrators will continue to see their power decline. Their customer lock-in is fading fast, and B2B software startups are letting Japanese enterprises leapfrog to modern IT systems for less than costs to maintain their SI-run legacy systems.
The SIs won’t disappear, of course. There will always be a need for good systems integrators, and the more forward thinking ones are already trying to reinvent themselves. However, the days when the days when SIs dictated their clients’ IT strategy are coming to a close.
That is a very good thing for Japanese software, Japanese startups, and Japanese competitiveness as a whole."
https://www.disruptingjapan.com/the-forgotten-mistake-that-killed-japans-software-industry
26. "Globally, there are 320 million crypto users which isn’t exactly web3, but that’s 4.2% of the global popular, so we have ways to go. (1)
A largest number of the most influential web2 companies and brands recently released or will soon launch web3 initiatives and already have distribution.
The products are easy to use and the web3 features are abstracted to feel like web2 product experiences. The UX/UI is pretty simple, so we no longer have that excuse.
In 2023, we have the opportunity to onboard the next billion users to web3 and that alone should make us optimistic. Building real utility is what matters most now.
There are enough smart engineers, designers, and product missionaries still building in this bear market, and expectations are remarkably low - which is always the best time to experiment."
https://chapterone.substack.com/p/optimism-in-web3
27. Seems like a good move from China's perspective. First step in warming off relations with the US and EU?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fHs8wqj3WQY&list=RDCMUCsy9I56PY3IngCf_VGjunMQ&start_radio=1
28. Rise of regions. We've always been regions. Globalization as a myth.
Good discussion of the future structures of the world economy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZyJ-GrxY-k
29. "A big piece of growing up and maturing financially, is your attitude towards money, how it works, and what it is good for/can do for you.
Whether you’re dropping $10,000 on a new Rolex, $2,000+ a year for a premium gym membership, or throwing $50,000 at a new real estate investment, one thing you absolutely cannot do when it comes to money is have a scarcity mentality.
That is, you clench onto money and view it as finite."
https://arbitrageandy.substack.com/p/the-simple-blueprint-for-getting
30. Excellent advice for founders and investors. Be Macro aware but Micro obsessed.
"No one can control the macro. It’s a complex adaptive system based on so many different variables that it makes heads spin. What can be controlled is the micro. The inputs to the business that better position the company for the long term utilizing the context of the macro to inform decision making. Hence, why we still need to be macro aware, but only obsess over the micro."
https://shomik.substack.com/p/be-macro-aware-micro-obsessed
31. The power of social media and influencers. They are not all bad.
This is a heartwarming story. Love to see more like this.
32. There is much wisdom in this thread. A new definition of rich.
https://twitter.com/thedankoe/status/1612783833228738561
33. Politics, VC & all the loss of trust in society & institutions. Important discussion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8pkFKHtmgOY
34. "There are wars that matter to the world economy, which are not very easy to see. In 2022 I talked about the importance of Hot Wars in Cold Places (space, the high seas, the Arctic) and Cold Wars in Hot Places (superpowers contesting spaces in Africa and the Pacific for strategic footholds and hard assets like food, energy, and minerals). But, there are other materially important wars that we need to understand if we are going to navigate the future better. These wars are invisible.
For example, the war among the superpowers is increasingly invisible. It’s about silent and invisible tech. The British Intelligence Service apparently dismantle their official cars “surgically down to the last nut and bolt” and yet recently discovered that the Chinese Government had “at least one SIM card capable of transmitting location data was discovered in a sweep of government and diplomatic vehicles which uncovered ‘disturbing things,’ a serving security source confirmed.” This “hybrid warfare” has been around for a long time, but it’s intensifying.
For example, it’s not about confronting the opposing military. It’s about invisibly attacking the opponent’s civilians through the use of “digital Fentanyl” called Tik Tok and other methods that influence social coherence and cohesion. Special Forces are increasingly invisible too. They are present and yet not present. They are using a new way of warfighting known as “by, with, and through,” which involves teaching and supporting local partners rather than fighting themselves."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/invisible-wars
35. Good winter weather in Europe. Lots of economic and geopolitical implications.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o49oovm1fRs
36. Some disturbing macro forecasts. Rise of gold, silver and commodity and commodity driven currencies which will lead to rise of multipolar world and decline of USD global currency.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNR851IFhWQ
37. Life as a super creator & entrepreneur. You have to be obsessed, managing your psychology but also resting and playing the long game. Solid interview with Mr Beast.