Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Jan 22nd, 2023
“If people are doubting how far you can go, go so far that you can’t hear them anymore.” —Michele Ruiz
This is a great geopolitical discussion with lessons from history and the Cold War. Very insightful.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXq8RTN6tOw
2. "As of Q3 2022, $223.6B was invested in venture funds¹, but despite the record numbers of new funds being launched, the majority of this capital was invested in well-established, brand-name funds with long track records and collectively, billions of assets under management.
Yet, emerging managers and smaller funds deliver outsized returns. Cambridge Associates found that new and developing firms are consistently among the top 10 performers in the venture capital asset class, accounting for 72% of the top returning firms between 2004–2016.²
Similarly, Greenspring Associates found that across 180 partnerships, their investments in emerging managers “outperformed relative to their established counterparts”, delivering net IRR 0.87% above established managers.³ Investing in emerging funds, many of which are led by diverse fund managers, also unlocks additional alpha as diverse fund managers outperformed the median performer in 11 of the 14 years studied.⁴"
https://medium.com/@cakeventures/introducing-cake-ventures-fund-i-aka-reasonable-doubt-67bb8ab37b36
3. "It is capital D DUMB to focus only on one thing ever and not diversify your earnings.
Money as a tool is a superpower. Money as a mission is a disease."
https://ckarchive.com/b/wvu2hgh53n283
4. Fascinating: long complex supply chains have been with us since pre-modern times ie. 3000 years ago.
"Evidence of an ancient tin pipeline stretching more than 3,000 kilometers from mining sites in present-day Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to merchant ships carrying processed tin in the eastern Mediterranean is particularly striking, says anthropologist Michael Frachetti of Washington University in St. Louis.
“That complex tin network was an early version of modern-day supply chains for commodities such as gas and oil,” Frachetti says."
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/supply-chains-3000-years-bronze-age-shipwreck
5. "The big question for this product has always been whether NFT buyers would purchase digital collectibles on a centralized web2 platform.
The early answer is yes, users will buy digital collectibles on Instagram. In fact, the first collections have all sold out.
But with the NFT marketplace, Instagram has early signs of product market fit.
We also have a very quiet NFT rally. And in an industry where hype often exceeds reality, quiet is a good thing."
https://chapterone.substack.com/p/a-very-quiet-nft-rally
6. This is one of the most discussed topics in America: how do we rebuild our industrial base & making sure they are secure. Josh Steinman is really sharp.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0W1q1mRkwt8
7. Yikes is all I have to say.
"Now according to Forbes, the same publication that picked Javice to join its prestigious list of overachievers, JPMorgan is suing Javice for inventing 93% of its client roster.
In reality, nearly 4.27 million names complete with addresses, dates of birth, and other personal information were allegedly invented out of thin air to pass the bank’s due diligence process. At the time the deal was struck, Frank had in fact fewer than 300,000 customers, JPMorgan claims."
https://fortune.com/2023/01/12/fintech-jp-morgan-chase-frank-charlie-javice-lawsuit
8. "Lesson: There is no advantage in being the first or ML-first; you win with a value-driving product and distribution that potentially can lead to a flywheel.
Some ML-powered companies will win, but less so because of models alone and more so because of their engineering and algorithmic savviness, e.g., by stitching multiple AI systems together"
https://vietle.substack.com/p/defensible-machine-learning
9. This is an investor to watch!
"Woodard, a veteran of startups and VC for two decades, was more interested in new businesses driving demographic change in a handful of very specific areas three complementary “layers” of a cake: our aging and longevity-minded population; the increased earning power of women in society; and the shift to “majority-minority,” as Woodard put it, a “new majority” of early tech adopters coming from Asian, Black and Latino backgrounds."
“I’ve said before that raising a fund is doing venture capital on hard mode. And raising a fund as a woman is like crawling through glass, and raising a fund as a Black woman is like crawling through glass with no clothes on, and then they pour fire ants all over you,” she said. “So it was always going to be hard.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkonrad/2023/01/12/monique-woodard-new-fund-cake-ventures
10. Rise of the rest in America. Centralization versus decentralization in innovation. We can learn a lot from history.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2NOTih60pHI
11. Lots of good insights here on AI and whats happening with Open AI & Microsoft.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiMTRQXBol0
12. Lots of important things happening in Defense-tech space: being led by Anduril. Good overview here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOuF8vdKfbk
13. Damn, this is a very important discussion. A must listen for all founders and investors who want to know what is happening right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7DDHY_NONw
14. Paul Ehrlich and the De-growth movement has caused incredible damage to the world and human civilization.
Sadly it seems WEF crowd still seems to espouse this in their proposed policies.
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-paul-ehrlich-got-everything-wrong
15. The ultimate niche: a "twins" focused business.
https://thehustle.co/how-two-sisters-monopolized-the-identical-twins-business
16. "Change brings risk to incumbents, who are incentivized to suppress it. Thus, a key role of government is to ensure efforts to suppress competition are blocked. Unfortunately, lawmakers have become addicted to expensive sleeping pills supplied by incumbents presenting a compelling offer:
Here’s a shit-ton of money, and all you have to do is … nothing. Our regulators at the FTC and DOJ are stirring, but still not awake from a four-decade slumber."
https://www.profgalloway.com/compete
17. "We’re just starting to learn how to use ChatGPT. By now you’ve seen countless threads explaining how to use it for XYZ. But I think Marketing stand the most to gain from ChatGPT. It’s ability to analyze information is unmatched.
You can use it to:
-Break down sales letters
-Generating product angle ideas
-Have it create content around buying personas
-Re-word old articles
-Generate ideas for SEO articles"
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/the-upside-case-on-chatgpt-with-bowtiedsystems
18. A worthy discussion on how to thrive in the solo entrepreneur and creator economy. All about winning the psychological game in self employment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khV8fK6zg5E
19. This is an excellent discussion on how to thrive as a business of one and in the creative sphere.
So many learnings from one of the best, Jack Butcher.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A50di7VxI0I
20. This is a great idea. Candlemaxxing.
https://twitter.com/byPeterParadise/status/1614328327367708672
21. "China wants the technology to produce chips. That's why the US, a source of much of the tech, is cutting Beijing off.
The two countries are clearly engaged in an arms race in the Asia Pacific, says Chris Miller, author of Chip Wars and associate professor at Tufts University.
But, he adds, there's more to the race: "[It] takes place both in traditional spheres, like numbers of ships, or missiles produced but increasingly, it's taking place in terms of the quality of Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms that can be employed in military systems."
For now, the US is winning - but the chip war it has declared on China is reshaping the global economy."
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-64143602
22. "If we want to understand the economy of tomorrow, we should consider what people are wearing today. Why? Because if art sends telling signals about the economy, then fashion sends especially strong signals about sentiment. After all, this is the art that humans wear.
People are cocooning. It looks like everything is a meaningless chaotic jumble hidden under cozy clothes that message, “I don’t live by the old rules anymore.” What will emerge from all this? I suspect a fresh new wave of creative thinking, entrepreneurial energy, and redefined norms. The old normcore was just a clothing style. The new normcore is societal. When this many people break that many fashion rules, something really cool is going on."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/fashion-signals-schlumpy-goblins
23. This is a good geopolitical overview of what's happening in the world. Jacob Shapiro of Lykeion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jB_FUvV0syc
24. This war is still going on. Please continue to support Ukraine against the barbarian Russian armed forces #SlavaUkraini
"Staying alive in a Ukrainian trench requires a daunting combination of stamina, vigilance, and luck. The daily misery induces a mental fatigue that dulls alertness and subverts morale.
But even the most disciplined soldier, with the most elaborate foxhole, can fall victim to a well-aimed munition, and the menace of sudden death plagues every Ukrainian infantryman charged with the imperative, terrible job of holding the line.
Similarly, whereas Doc’s tours in Iraq and Afghanistan had scheduled end dates, Legion members must decide for themselves when to stop fighting. The fact that Ukrainians like Rambo and Grek lack such agency makes quitting all the more fraught.
Doc agreed with President Zelensky’s assertion that the war was about much more than just Ukraine—that no less than the future of democracy might be governed by its outcome. “And this is the problem,” he told me. “Because how am I different from these Ukrainian soldiers, then, if I believe that?
More than any other foreign volunteer I met, Doc seemed to be genuinely motivated by a conviction that the conflict was “a clear case of right and wrong.” I sometimes wondered to what extent his desire to participate in such an unambiguously just war was connected to his previous military career. The cause for which he is fighting in Ukraine is righteous because it consists of one country resisting occupation by another."
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/01/02/trapped-in-the-trenches-in-ukraine
25. “Living the Dream”
This is a tongue in cheek expression on Wall Street. This is because it’s a way of outwardly admitting you didn’t expect to be in this position.
No, you’re not struggling. No, you’re not well “respected” either.
In fact, no one really cares that you’re worth a million bucks and are in your mid 30s. You will find that this is quite common amongst a wide array of high paying positions.
The problem is this. How do you expect to catch up to the top 1% wealth when they make more than $400,000 on dividends/interest alone (top 1% wealth is $10M earning 4-5% in bonds/dividends = $400,000-$500,000.
Now that you’ve seen the math you can decide if this is glamorous or not. Life is a lot more expensive than most think especially if you plan on living in major cities."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/lifestyle-inflation-and-high-cost
26. "In summary, the case for allocating frozen Russian assets to Ukraine is compelling in my mind. The need is now, delay would increase the chances that Russia succeeds in its illegal war in Ukraine. Western Treasuries need to stop their opposition and foot dragging, and just get this done.
Putin has openly declared war the West, our governments need to wake up to this fact, and take the gloves off to ensure Ukraine is succesful in defeating Russia as our own best first line of defence.
Ukraine cannot be successful in defence and then recovery unless it is guaranteed the funds to succeed. Unless Western taxpayers are going to write big cheques, the only alternative source of funding is the $400bn in frozen Russian assets."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/allocate-frozen-russian-assets-to
27. "In reality, the logistical, planning, and organizational failures that stalled Russia’s advance and allowed Ukraine to recapture territory are likely to keep occurring. As long as its NATO partners keep increasing their support, Ukraine is well positioned to win the war."
28. "Russia has been losing far more than Ukraine, and having difficulty replacing their losses. As such, the Ukrainians are steadily closing the gap. The one exception to this is in soldiers, where the Russian figure jumps up significantly recently—this is from the forced drafting of soldiers which started in September—though this figure is deceptive as a large number of the Russian soldiers in this leap are basically untrained.
Also, what this slide doesn’t show, which others do, is the increase in effectiveness of Ukrainian equipment as it replaces Soviet legacy systems with NATO standard. Basically not only is the numerical gap between the two sides narrowing, the quality gap is growing wider—for Ukraine."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-11
29. "Many high-value knowledge-industry workers are now getting to decide where they want to live. Some might move to farms or sleepy exurbs. Others might choose the dirt-cheap real estate of a Rust Belt city. But I think many will want to live around other educated knowledge workers in a setting that’s a little quieter, safer, and more picturesque than New York City.
Where better to live than a college town? It has the peace and space of a suburb, but also has a dense concentration of smart people to befriend, to date, or to collaborate with in a less remote fashion. If you’re leaving New York City with your laptop in hand, why not go to Ann Arbor, or Madison, or College Station?
College towns should be doing their best to attract remote knowledge workers. This will require building cheap and plentiful housing, while investing in thriving downtown areas — two of the most important things a town can do to improve local quality of life. That will require overcoming local NIMBYs who want to freeze the town in a permanent stasis field. But then again, that’s a challenge that every American city is facing right now.
To sum up, I think that even though the near future of demand for undergrad education is looking grim, college towns are well-positioned to thrive and even extend the economic and social advantages they enjoyed in prior decades. Concentrating on academic research activity, and quality of life for remote workers, seems like the smartest path."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/how-college-towns-can-survive-and
30. "I’ve found it is far more useful to think of markets instead like a river with a current. As a founder (the ship’s captain), your job is to find the current, and then build the best ship (product) and team to ride it.
A strong current makes the actual job of being the captain a heck of a lot easier. You could have a plank of wood to start in a strong current, and you’ll still move a lot faster than a slick boat in stagnant waters."
https://sarahtavel.medium.com/find-a-fast-current-not-a-large-body-of-water-b477f855dfa
31. "Sometimes when I say that people respond with “Oh Admiral, you’re right, you know it’s a war of ideas.” No, it’s not a war of ideas – it is a marketplace of ideas.
Our ideas can compete in that marketplace, but we need to communicate them clearly, coherently, and boldly, without a shred of arrogance or self-righteousness, but with confidence as well."
https://time.com/6245243/america-division-optimism
32. Things seem to be changing in Germany. New Defense minister coming in soon who hopefully does not suck like the last one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGkzPGBkGhw
33. This is an eye-opening conversation. Scary stuff, USA & west is stuck in woke BS & ESG.
This is while China is wrecking us quietly through sending us fentanyl, propaganda, corrupting our politicians & controlling key areas like solar energy panels & Cobalt.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66phzM0k7Lk
34. "In Merritt’s definition, “quality” is defined in terms of a company’s revenue model, not the company itself. This distinction is important, since the vast majority of high-growth startups do not become profitable until many years in. True innovation takes time and money, which is why venture capital exists in the first place.
Thus, a “flight to quality” in venture capital does not (and should not) be interpreted as a flight to profitable or near-profitable companies only.
Unfortunately, in countries outside of the US, that’s often the case."
https://chrisneumann.com/blog/canada-cant-afford-a-flight-to-fear
35. Fascinating & different view from Mainstream media. I don't agree with some of these points (ie. NATO being threat to Russia).
BUT we are fragmenting into a multipolar world & USA needs to get smarter & ramp up to compete with China & her allies. Important to get other sources & perspectives even if u don't agree with them.
https://mobile.twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1613924570725244928?s=19
36. Industrial espionage has been going on forever by every country. It’s also a key part of China's tool kit.
Wonder when the USA will finally wake up to this and take this threat seriously.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-64206950
37. Bullish on America and its rebuilding of the manufacturing industry here.
More on The Titanium Economy=America Re-Industrialization.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nBIGBgYdyS4&t=3s
38. "While Marin’s musings about a win for Ukraine are morally compelling and just, we will be signing up for a conflict that will not only ask us to keep arms and financial support going at full speed, it will also draw the West deeper into an intensely bloody and unpredictable conflict.
If we accept that scenario it is clear that there is no way out of this, barring negotiations which both parties are still light years away from.
The imagery of the mindless attacks on civilians in the Ukraine underline the necessity to act, they also highlight that there is no bottom to the depravity that Putin is willing to unleash on Ukraine."
https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/no-way-out
39. "This is our argument for why $4 million is the new $1 million from years ago. It is also our argument for why $1,000,000 won’t be all that much money in 2053. People forget that the cost of items go up over 30 year time frames.
No, we’re not saying to buy a house (in fact we expect prices to go down this year) but over the long-term it’ll go up. Emphasis: we would not buy any real estate especially in SE USA at this point in our cartoon opinion.
What Should You Do Instead? You should be joining the jungle and spinning up a WiFi business. All you need is a SINGLE one time event of $500,000. Not $1M. Not some crazy $10M VC exit. Just $500,000.
If you create a WiFi business that makes $166,000 per year, you could sell that for 3x earnings on Empire Flippers in many cases."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/4m-is-the-new-1m-and-why-retirement
40. Not surprised, it’s sad but inevitable. Google was so bloated.
https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/alphabet-to-lay-off-12000-employees-5109321