Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads January 19th, 2025
“No matter how hard the past is, you can always begin again”--Buddha
"At that stage of our careers and entrepreneurial journeys, maintaining a standing daily check-in proved invaluable. It allowed us to meet, share our experiences, and grow together as a group. Entrepreneurs should find a peer group and look for ways to grow faster with activities like a daily check-in."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/12/14/daily-check-in-amongst-entrepreneurs/
2. Creator economy is back. It's evolving fast too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F54fcJFz_7M&t=163s
3. Describing the vibe shift in Silicon Valley and the USA at large. An Insight dense conversation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gn9YZP_Zm50&t=251s
4. "Yes, everything is aligning. You may call it industrial policy, friendshoring, or de-risking. It adds up to the same thing: state-directed investment. Again, read the Macron speech. He says if we don’t learn to build stuff again, Europe can die. Of course, he’s prone to overdramatic statements, but he didn’t say Europe is a bit ill. He said Europe can die.
This is a question of life and death. Building military equipment is life and death stuff. It has become an issue of national survival to invest. Governments all over the world find the need to direct investments to purposes they want to achieve."
5. "How truly democratic today’s democracies are has become an open question. Negative answers trouble the political life of many nations. Everywhere the traditional parties, creatures of a decaying consensus, are in the grip of disintegration. They are being replaced by sectarian war bands that challenge the very legitimacy of the system. The public has a vague notion of what it is for but knows with terrible clarity what it stands against. A spirit of negation has inspired massive street uprisings in the style of France’s Yellow Vests and Black Lives Matter here at home, as well as the election of unorthodox populists like Donald Trump.
I analyzed the causes of this upheaval in my 2014 book, “The Revolt of the Public.” In brief, I argued that institutional elites have failed to adapt to the vast flows of information of the digital age. They reside at the top of great hierarchies that tower uneasily over a flattened socioeconomic landscape—and they want nothing to change. They crave the eternal preservation of the 20th-century regime, in which they wielded unquestioned authority and had the power to conceal their dirty secrets. In pursuit of this ideal—fondly labeled “our democracy”—they have grown ever more reactionary and antidemocratic over the decades.
In Britain and Brazil today, you can land in jail for voicing antiestablishment opinions on social media. Here in the U.S., the Biden administration erected a censorship apparatus to mute online dissidence—and, we recently learned, “debanked,” or cast out of the financial system without right of appeal, those engaged in disfavored operations such as cryptocurrency.
The Revolt Gains Legitimacy
With the triumphant second coming of Trump, the revolt of the public has entered a new phase. The cordon sanitaire that isolated the president-elect from all respectable political and cultural gatekeepers has tumbled like the walls of Jericho. Yesterday, he was Hitler—opposing him was a moral imperative. Today, having risen out of the depths of disgrace, he heads a movement that contains much of the energy and excitement to be found in this country."
https://www.discoursemagazine.com/p/revolt-of-the-public-10-years-on
6. "The only way the US can regain some defense industrial base competitive advantage is to partner with free world countries that have the manufacturing expertise and cost structure to compete with China. That is a very short list: Ukraine and Mexico. And Mexico doesn’t have much of a defense industry.
In the free world, Ukraine is the low cost producer of defense tech and defense production. It was the defense industrial base of the USSR. Handing this over to Putin would be a strategic mistake of epic proportions.
Not to mention the free world’s largest and only battle proven military. Losing that to Russia seems…unwise.
And then there are the minerals. According to a Washington Post article yesterday, Ukraine sits on $25 tr of critical minerals. 27 of them. 22 of them which the US sources from Russia and China. For example, Ukraine has the world’s largest uranium deposits. Right now, the biggest source of uranium for the US power industry is Kazakhstan—mines owned by China and Russia.
Ukraine is rich in neodymium, which is used for most magnets. Including the magnets in almost every small drone motor used by the US military. Currently, China is the source of 90% of the world’s neodymium. Indeed, 40% of US weapons systems are dependent on Chinese components.
As China increasingly disengages with the West as it shifts from export-led growth to domestic demand-driven growth, its relative power grows while that of the US wanes.
Saving Ukraine is not only good for the Ukrainians; it is an investment in the strategic security of the US-led liberal world order."
https://theketchumsun.substack.com/p/issue-55-letter-from-kyiv
7. Good overview of Silicon Valley in 2024 and some good projections for 2025.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBlk3MdQPM4
8. "Memo to CEOs: This is the way to do it. Brands and logos and press releases do not resonate with us anymore. We are interested in your people — who they are, what they care about, and what they have to say — not your brand. The most overvalued firm in tech, Palantir, isn’t a tech company, but a CEO (Alex Karp) masking as a public company."
https://www.profgalloway.com/people-are-the-new-brands/
9. "Today, his default pace is 100 miles per hour. To take this random Thursday in August: A couple weeks ago, Johnson was in Japan, finishing shooting a drama called The Smashing Machine. Shortly after that, Johnson appeared at a Disney event to announce that he will soon star in a new film, called Monster Jam. This fall, two movies Johnson has already completed, Red One and Moana 2, will be released. And on Monday, he’ll go back to work, filming a new live-action version of Moana.
Johnson’s work in Hollywood and, lately, in business (tequila, skin care) have made him something not too far from a billionaire; he could retire tomorrow, or even today. But this level of activity is typical and has made Johnson unbelievably successful: Every morning he wakes up, busily performs the character of Dwayne Johnson, and the empire grows."
https://www.gq.com/story/dwayne-johnson-men-of-the-year-cover-2024
10. A great episode this week if you wanna know what's up with businesses at the edge of the internet. Crypto, AI, art and tech.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICn78rmjMno
11. A grand bit of tinfoil hat theories of global macro and geopolitical strategy. Sounds crazy but entertaining.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WvP9rAowyrA
12. Important discussion on geopolitical implications of Syrian turmoil. But this extends to the Russian invasion of Ukraine too, Turkey's new Ottoman Empire.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wixRrGeH3HY&t=30s
13. This was a worthwhile conversation with Jared Kushner. I learned so much on how to do negotiations well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EagrRPukYdc
14. "Looking ahead, Raj highlighted emerging trends that could redefine defence innovation. Synthetic biology, for instance, offers transformative potential in healthcare and national security. Meanwhile, advancements in energy, such as small nuclear reactors, could underpin future technological breakthroughs.
But the biggest challenge, Raj believes, is not innovation itself, but its adoption. “The Department of Defense doesn’t have an innovation problem; it has an innovation adoption problem,” he said, quoting former Deputy Secretary of Defense Bob Work. Bureaucratic inertia remains a barrier, but Raj remains optimistic, especially as Europe ramps up its efforts in defence and Ukraine becomes a proving ground for new technologies."
https://www.resiliencemedia.co/p/from-f-16s-to-venture-capital-raj
15. An insightful conversation on the future of war.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fg_zdFF4Y4A
16. "Now, New Founding has launched a venture capital fund to invest in what it calls “aligned companies,” startups that oppose progressive ideologies and are intent on both “cultural and economic disruption.” It’s one of a small but growing number of VCs vocally rejecting ‘wokeism’ and building their investment thesis on core conservative values.
New Founding’s investments are one tentpole of a broader goal: to remake society with a largely MAGA, tech-driven, Christian worldview. It decries leftists as “anti-human,” celebrates technology as a singular force that will define a new era of prosperity, loves crypto and sees the internet (“deeply American in ethos and design”) as a means to its ends. “Our project offers a powerful avenue,” a manifesto on its website published in July reads, “both to develop the class of people who can ultimately challenge the incumbent regime and to acquire the resources, territory, and institutions that will enable this effort.
New Founding CEO Nate Fischer told Forbes these investments are the beginnings of a “parallel economy” offering conservative versions of mainstream services it views as too liberal, like Google’s ad-tech products. “There's a large share of people who feel that their views are almost entirely absent from the institutions that are shaping the future,” Fischer explained. “And there's a real acute need and hunger for alternatives.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidjeans/2024/12/23/anti-woke-venture-capital-new-founding/
17. "Greenland is incredibly resource-rich, with rare earth mineral deposits valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars, and its geopolitical position is incredibly significant to American interests vis-a-vis our Great Power rivals. Should Greenland fall under the Chinese umbrella, it will have devastating national security implications for the United States.
President-elect Trump’s prioritization of Greenland for negotiation and future annexation is both righteous and strategically prudent. As the first major U.S. acquisition in well over a century, Greenland can serve to shape the president’s legacy in a manner akin to his favorite president: Andrew Jackson."
https://www.dossier.today/p/yes-america-should-absolutely-annex
18. "Now, new export controls on Chinese drone components announced by Beijing and coming into effect next year mean Taiwan is doubling down on its bet that drones become a central feature of modern warfare — and the island becomes a global hub to produce them.
Taiwan is already a critical technology hub, producing 95 percent of the world’s most advanced microchips. Its local drone industry is working to match Chinese manufacturing to help the United States and other Western allies reduce their reliance on China."
https://www.politico.eu/article/taiwan-eyes-war-drones-to-counter-china/
19. "Trump is no kumbaya peace-loving hippie; he fully believes in the military supremacy and exceptionalism of America and delights in slaughtering humans using said military might. Remember that in his first term, he assassinated Iranian General Qasem Soleimani on Iraqi soil to the delight of a large swath of America. Trump gave no fucks about violating Iraqi airspace and unilaterally deciding to murder a general of another country against whom America was not officially at war. As such, he wants to properly re-arm the empire so that its capabilities match the hype.
Trump advocates the re-industrialization of America to help those who want good manufacturing jobs and those who wish to possess a strong military. To do so requires reversing the imbalances built under the Petroyuan system. This will be accomplished by weakening the dollar, providing tax grants and subsidies to produce things domestically, and deregulation. All these things combined will make it economically prudent for companies to move production onshore because China is currently the best place to produce things due to the combination of three decades in the making of pro-growth policies.
To summarize, quickly and dramatically weakening the dollar is the first step towards Trump and Bessent achieving their economic goals. It is also something they can accomplish overnight without consulting domestic legislators or foreign finance ministry heads. Given that Trump has one year to show progress on some of his goals to help Republicans maintain their hold on the House and Senate, my base case is a $/gold devaluation in the first half of 2025."
https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/trump-truth
20. Maniac on a mission. Such a great conversation on what makes entrepreneurial success. Must watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_8KKY8fQdA
21. A true Renaissance man: hedge funder, professional musician, pilot, theologian. Fascinating life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSwszq1xFK0
22. Hard men here. French Foreign Legionnaires in the jungles of French Guiana.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfEGm1iNMcg
23. Situation in Syria: net net, it's gonna be a fragmented mess unless Turkey really asserts itself there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tV6Om9aIz2A
24. A masterclass on AI semiconductor chips. Really great conversation if you want to understand what’s happening with AI right now and implications for big tech (and small).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVcSBHhcFbg&t=2042s
25. "Ukrainian companies can produce nearly three times more weapons than the current Ukrainian budget can procure. The capacity of FPV drone producers already exceeds 4 million per year, while the state budget provides money to contract only slightly more than 1 million.
When the full-scale war began, Ukraine banned weapons exports to ensure all production went to its Armed Forces (AFU). As manufacturing capacity grew beyond military budget needs, a debate emerged about lifting the ban. Instead of resuming exports, Ukraine launched the Zbroyari project – a program where European countries could finance Ukrainian weapons production for the AFU. The message was clear: countries lacking manufacturing capacity could fund procurement from Ukrainian producers."
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/11/29/can-europe-fill-in-the-gap-if-trump-abandons-ukraine/
26. Our enemies should not be underestimated, especially with Russian military. They are learning and adapting & we should be too.
"Russian forces are attempting to breach Ukrainian defenses along the Donbas front, where the situation has become critical in some places. Their tactics have changed significantly from what was seen during the battles for Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Instead of launching large-scale attacks that turned into “meat grinders” with dozens of soldiers charging across open fields, they now send in smaller groups using motorcycles, civilian vehicles, and even electric scooters.
In his analysis, BBC Ukraine war reporter Abdujalil Abdurasulov notes that these small groups attack from multiple directions in succession. While many are eliminated, the sheer number of attempts means some groups eventually break through to reach Ukrainian positions. Despite heavy Russian losses, this approach lets them capture about one village per day.
This change in tactics was largely driven by the widespread use of drones on the battlefield. Modern surveillance and attack drones make it nearly impossible for large groups of soldiers to move without being detected and targeted, forcing Russians to adapt with smaller, more mobile units."
27. I always like listening to Justin Waller. One of the few super positive & credible examples for young men.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqAQsAC4GA8&t=925s
28. "My gift to you: How to make more money in 2025.
I’ve compiled a free list of ways to potentially make more money and get rich(er) in 2025."
https://shindy.substack.com/p/make-money
29. "But, there have also been moments where the crowd failed me. And every time this happened, the reason was the same—the crowd did not have sufficient expertise. They simply didn’t know enough about the topic at hand."
https://ofdollarsanddata.com/the-ignorance-of-the-crowd/
30. "The only way to fight back is to get average-IQ people to reject our all-too-human craving for certainty.
Internalize the notion that ANYONE strutting around telling you they’ve got a lock on The Truth is an emissary (probably an unwitting one) of an arch-criminal who has a vested interest in getting you (and millions like you with your biases and predilections) to behave in a particular way to the benefit of specific powerful forces."
https://kaichang.substack.com/p/zealots-of-certainty
31. "The Good News? On a final positive note, 2024 is still the greatest time to be alive. Crypto currency is solving a large chunk of these issues in real time. Intermediaries simply sit in the “flow of money” and that rent extraction is moving to digital currencies. Therefore, we don’t even care about the prior three steps! They were just there to tell you the real issue (wealth disparity *not* income disparity).
Instead of fighting all of these loopholes, remember that no one is coming to save you. Not your boss, your family or your country. Save yourself by playing the game correctly (“Don’t hate the player, hate the game")
The game is won by creating digital income (online income) and investing into high quality technology firms and crypto currencies in our opinion. This way your income can be moved to a more tax friendly state/country. This is what the wealthy are doing so you should do it too."
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/reminder-wealth-inequality-is-not
32. You can never get enough Justin Waller. Always a good, educational time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNeIk9RVUso&t=7s
33. Good global economic takes here on Xmas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqXDfTyLGu8
34. "Tesla is creating factories that are the product—designing, testing, and perfecting every element just as they do with their cars.
This focus on manufacturing efficiency, Lutz believes, will lead to a dramatic reduction in production costs, potentially bringing them closer to zero. And this shift in how products are built—rather than merely assembled—could set a new standard for the entire manufacturing world."
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/musk-led-manufacturing-revolution-nobody-talking-about
35. Worthwhile conversation on technology, defense-tech, geopolitics and growing influence of Silicon Valley across the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIKevZh97Tw
36. You can never get enough Justin Waller. He is the mentor I wish I had when I was younger.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4kPtEEsE6A
37. "This reveals something broader about how ecosystems like Silicon Valley work: They’re not just markets — they’re belief systems. Success comes not from playing by the rules, but from understanding why the rules exist and when to break them.
The tragedy isn’t that most founders struggle in Silicon Valley. It’s that they struggle believing they did everything right by the wrong playbook.
Because in Silicon Valley, you’re not just building a business.
You’re auditioning for a role in someone else’s vision of the future. Make sure it is yours."
38. "Certainly as geopolitical tensions continue to rise and the US gets closer to a potential conflict with a technologically sophisticated near-peer adversary, the DoD must continue to find ways to adopt innovative technologies that help warfighters. There is no doubt that in the coming years many startups will break through and land large DoD contracts to deliver essential technology. As such, I predict that there will be at least three new NatSec “unicorns” minted in 2025 – that is, at least three national security focused startups will raise fundraising rounds valuing them at $1B or more.
Although there’s much to be optimistic about for startups selling to national security in 2025, they will still face significant headwinds when entering the defense market. I predict that several NatSec startups will struggle to grow into their inflated valuations, finding it difficult to grow DoD revenue fast enough to secure another round of funding. As a result, I predict that in 2025 at least one high-profile NatSec startup will be forced to raise a “down round,” or accept a discounted acquisition, in order to stay afloat."
https://maggiegray.substack.com/p/2025-predictions-for-natsec-tech
39. "The Russians have no desire to go to war with NATO too, right now, but if they were looking at a low risk, high reward activities on the edge of war that is at least something, then this fits the bill. They will continue to do this until the risk/reward ratio goes negative. They have yet to meet resistance.
It’s amazing that the Russians took this long. These actions may not for now significantly impact the economies of those sending weapons to kill Russians, but they do humiliate the West by conducting sabotage without consequence…just impotent, sternly worded letters and toothless inspections.
My bet is that this will increase until it meets resistance and cost."
https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/cables-pipelines-and-consequences