Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads January 21st, 2024
“Travel makes one modest. You see what a tiny place you occupy in the world.” -Gustav Flaubert
"What strange magic happens once we’re around family? We’re confronted with our past, we get a glimpse of our future, we dive into our deepest wells of conflicting emotions. Love, gratitude, and the desire to be seen, heard, and appreciated all co-exist with frustration, anger, sadness, shame. We start shifting between new and old identities, we slip back into roles and behaviors we thought we’d long abandoned. The ghosts of childhood wounds haunt the dinner table.
I think we trigger each by our very nature, not on purpose (ok, sometimes on purpose). Just like an insult only touches us if we spot a kernel of truth in it, family drama is intense because we see aspects of ourselves reflected in the other. Family ‘rubs your nose’ in the struggles of your life by showing you its iterations. If my mother struggles to let go of things, I see in this my own challenges, my own stacks of books, my own clutching and clasping.
Family is a mirror. Family throws a spotlight on what we’d rather avoid.
But here’s the kicker. If you do it right, family drama is a portal."
https://alchemy.substack.com/p/in-the-land-of-triggers-merry-christmas
2. This seems pretty right on. Israel tying up with Saudi and Turkey?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYoOuJIj5qM
3. Hard times require hard advice. Vinod Khosla is one of the OGs of Silicon Valley.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJZsiXQuOUA
3. "A common mistake is to think this applies only to the size of the work. That is, “Rocks” means “stuff that takes a few quarters,” “Pebbles” means “a few sprints,” and “Sand” means “less than a sprint.”
This misses the most important point of work-ordering: It’s about maximizing impact by not allowing the easy or urgent things to crowd out the strategic things that take years to unfold but are more important than everything else combined. A thousand “quick wins” do not create durable advantages or fulfill a long-term vision.
Another mistake is to think that the previous paragraph is the end of the story. “Schedule revenue-growth stuff, then maintenance updates, got it.” No. Each type of work requires different prioritization frameworks, has different goals, and hide different traps that make you unwittingly ineffective.
If you pretend these differences don’t exist, your team will be working hard and delivering lots of code-commits—the appearance of “productivity”—but they’ll feel like they’re not making progress fast enough, competition will start catching up, and they’ll (correctly) complain that they can’t see how their work is connected to the strategy.
The good news is: It does not take additional time to do it right. This is an instance of “smarter, not harder.” You just need the right frameworks."
https://longform.asmartbear.com/rocks-pebbles-sand
4. So much food for thought. Tai Lopez has some great insights on society, business and human psychology.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEMHTDUXN2k&t=2123s
5. How to Build a thesis driven partnership firm. USV is one of the best VCs in the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOHKojtF36A
6. "No matter how distressed Argentina’s situation has been throughout the years, there are always opportunities. The bond holdout debacle of the early 2000s is an example of one “vulture fund” that dared to buy up Argentina’s distressed debt. After a 15 year waiting game, payday came. This is the story of Elliott Management’s bond play that resulted in a return of historic proportions."
https://www.bowtiedmara.io/p/paul-singing-bonds-dont-cost-a-thing
7. Another reason why the Western elites are weak & stupid. (or maybe just corrupt)
Price caps don't work and all it does it forces trade to the fringes.
We should have opened up all the taps of oil, cut regulations instead of following badly thought thru ESG & degrowth environmental policies. This way we can use market forces to drive down costs of oil so we gut Russia's oil income.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Azm4yKKIlqE
8. An alternative view here on geopolitics. I don't agree with his views on Ukraine and Russia but he captures the heightened levels of economic and geopolitical risk going into 2024.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0vAjbQ4VmM
9. Really great recap of NIA this year. So much fun this show & educational as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQlzR-eCu-U&t=699s
10. Tim Ferriss is the uber influencer and OG. Lots of tips on how to be productive and how to be a consistent writer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXUuStdMeoE
11. "As I read the trial transcripts, redactions and all, I’m realizing that pharmaceutical marketing is the most bro-style shit-talking industry I’ve ever seen. This fact shouldn’t be a surprise, I mean, a standard tactic to push expensive pills was to hire former cheerleaders to flirt with dorks in white coats, such that ‘pharma girls’ actually became a gag on the sitcom How I Met Your Mother. And of course this is the industry where Martin Shkreli made his fortune.
But the story of IQVIA and how it is seeking to monopolize the space, explains so much about the twisted culture of corporate America. In this trial, executives were confronted with emails in which they used middle finger emojis towards rivals and talked about “blowing minds” in the industry. At one point, an executive texted a colleague at a rival firm, “Are we preparing a bag of cash right now?” with the response being “how big? 😉.” They then joked about how much money they would both make ‘integrating’ the two firms. Bro-ing down is fine at a tailgate, but when paired with a legal regime tolerant of consolidation, it means bros come to control the industry designed to help doctors learn which medicine to prescribe.
Ok, so what’s this case actually about, and why does it matter?
IQVIA has $14 billion a year in global revenue, which is a little over 2% of all pharmaceutical spending in America. It gets this revenue largely because it has the most important storehouse of medical data in the world, including information on nearly every medication prescribed to every patient in the U.S., the doctor who prescribed it, the pharmacy at which it was dispensed, the disease history of the patient, its pricing, and hundreds of other touch points.
Nearly every major pharmaceutical firm, and most governments, depend on IQVIA to understand how to develop, finance, track, and deploy medical treatments."
https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/the-insufferable-bros-who-run-corporate
12. "Most people do not dwell on their mistakes. They prefer to think and talk mainly about their greatest triumphs.
However, the most successful few in any profession constantly examine and improve on their past performances, both winners and losers.
They know what worked, what did not, and how to improve the next time around.
Such is the case with the best PE and VC investors. The super successful, the masters of the business, succeed in large part because of their ability to learn from both their triumphs and disasters.
They remain students of their own histories and humble about what the future could bring - remarkable success or devastating failure."
https://privatequityguy.beehiiv.com/p/564m-revenue-8-people-hq
13. A good rundown of 2024 predictions from Silicon Valley.
https://nbt.substack.com/p/nextbigthing2024
14. "For Ukraine, the immediate future is one of several months of hard fighting without critical resources, while endeavouring to regenerate the combat power that was expended over 2023. But Europe can determine what the second half of 2024 and indeed 2025 will look like. This is a war that can be won.
The recent successful strike on the Russian landing ship Novocherkassk in harbour, protected by layers of Russian defences, shows how Ukraine can make effective use of the equipment that it is supplied with. But European security must not be squandered by more complacency."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/dec/27/ukraine-russia-europe-support-kyiv
15. Samo Burma is a very wise man with a good perspective of history and the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0XX1kv--lB8&t=13s
16. Learning from the best. Peter Fenton of Benchmark. Fellow GenXer but 1000X way more successful. The art and science of VC.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWEP6vUomi8
17. Another legend & OG in Silicon Valley. Investor and operator. I aspire to be more like Elad Gil.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5uNsVOOi3M
18. "We are only in the opening chapters of this story, but I’m not sure it will get worse.
Even if we don’t change our response to these attacks, through persistence we can endure through what one would suspect is a limited Houthi inventory of useful weapons, especially if we can stop resupply from Iran. With a large dose of luck, we may get through with only an impact on economics and our own magazine depth.
There are two downsides even with this optimistic possible outcome.
--We’ve burned through an already thin inventory.
--We’ve established a precedence that anyone can take pot-shots at American warships without response.
The second worries me the most."
https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/barfights-winchester-indians-and
19. "Intellectual golden ages occur when new intellectual authority is achievable for those at the frontiers of knowledge. This feat of social engineering that legitimizes illegible but intellectually productive individuals is then upstream of material incentives, which is why a merely independently wealthy person cannot just throw money at any new scientific field or institution and expect it to grow in legitimacy. It ultimately rests on political authority.
The most powerful individuals in a society must lend their legitimacy to the most promising scientific minds and retract it only when they fail as scientists, rather than as political players. The society in which science can not just exist, but flourish, is one where powerful individuals can elevate people with crazy new ideas on a whim.
The dreams of automating scientific progress with vast and well-funded bureaucracies have evidently failed. This is because bureaucracies are only as dynamic as the live players who pilot them. Without a live player at the helm who is a powerful individual in control of the bureaucracy, the existing distribution of legitimacy is just frozen in place, and more funding works only to keep it more frozen rather than to drive scientific progress forward.
Powerful individuals will not always make the right bets on crazy new ideas and the crazy people who come up with them, but individuals have a chance to make the right bets, whereas bureaucracies can only pretend to make them. Outsourcing science to vast and well-funded bureaucracies then gives us the impression of intense work on the cutting edge of science, but without any of the substance.
The solution is not just to grant more funding and legitimacy to individual scientists rather than scientific bureaucracies, but to remind powerful individuals, and especially those with sovereign authority, that if they don’t grant this legitimacy, no one else will. Science lives or dies on personal endorsement by powerful patrons. Only the most powerful individuals in society can afford to endorse the right immature and speculative ideas, which is where all good ideas begin their life cycle."
https://letter.palladiummag.com/p/science-needs-sovereigns-44d
20. I always learn new things when these guys talk. Two very accomplished and interesting friends catching up.
My life is always better after listening and trying some of their tips and suggestions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYXa5RCGLiM
21. This article is meant as a critique. I think Silicon Valley is becoming this way because of a new level of competitiveness & toughness is required to overcome the immense change and pain coming.
“All of Silicon Valley reminds me of the first Top Gun movie: the abundance of testosterone, like 1970s, 1980s all over again,” said Manu Cornet, a cartoonist and software engineer who formerly worked at Twitter, now X. “It’s not even sarcastic or second degree.
“It’s a very jacked up movement,” said Glenn Kelman, the CEO of Redfin. “The people I know are thinking about testosterone and eating 500 grams of protein a day. They are ravenous, carnivorous, and totally yoked.”
But more recently, these same Silicon Valley companies have begun to look like the conventionally bloated behemoths at the pinnacle of corporate culture. Their leaders, too, have adopted a performance of masculinity that’s strikingly conventional and includes angry rhetoric, muscular physiques, and a newfound interest in physical combat.
The men responsible for building the products that touch the daily lives of billions of people display an increasing preoccupation with flaunting masculine bravado. It’s not just for show, either. The way these powerful men run their companies is impacting who is considered welcome in Silicon Valley.”
https://www.vox.com/technology/2023/12/27/24011198/bezos-zuckerberg-musk-buff-mma-masculine
22. Turkey is a dominant regional power. And will be even more powerful in post-American world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fruhvf_OWA0
23. Timely conversation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBeNRC_z3gw
24. "In sum, these wars over networked tribal alignment will accelerate our inability to make decisions at every level of society and governance. Facts will not be considered facts by many people unless they fit their tribal alignment, and any facts presented by people in opposing tribes will immediately be seen as attacks (like Rufo’s plagiarism charge). Attacks that will be immediately rejected or ignored. Worse, many networks will manufacture facts (for example, fake hate crimes) to advance towards the goal.
In the end, these conflicts will achieve the demoralization of the US that the Soviet KGB info warrior Yuri Bezmenov hoped to accomplish during the Cold War."
https://johnrobb.substack.com/p/aligning-the-ivy-league
25. An insight dense conversation for tech founders and investors. Worth watching.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfWYN4DsVJo
26. How to be more thoughtful about your life. Die with Zero. Recommend the book as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8TTW957qDQ
27. This is a great conversation between two super smart people. Two of the world's most interesting people: Matt Mullenweig & Tim Ferriss.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWpaCLIUnXo
28. "But soft power is not a zero-sum game. It can't be applied coercively, as hard power in the form of diplomatic, economic, or military force can be. The difference between soft and hard power is the difference between sending rockets into a rival nation's borders versus sending BTS rocketing up their pop charts. I suppose that purchasing one band’s song or merch might come at the expense of another, in the cold, hard math of consumer spending.
But in practice, things don’t work that way: loving Bong Joon-ho’s films doesn’t preclude one from loving Hirokazu Kore-eda’s. Reading Japanese manga doesn’t preclude enjoying Korean webtoons. Our budgets may be limited, but our ability to like things is as bottomless as our hunger for stimulation and novelty. So I've always taken reports of one nation's pop-cultural rise coming at the expense of another's with a big grain of salt. You should too.
There is perhaps no better example of this than what happened to Japan over the course of 2023. All but written off at the beginning of the 2020s, it re-emerged as a pop-cultural powerhouse over the course of just one post-pandemic (he said hopefully) year.
At one point earlier this month, films from Japan occupied two of the three top spots on the American box-office charts -- Hayao Miyazaki's The Boy and the Heron at number one, and Takashi Yamazaki's Godzilla Minus One at number three. Putting aside my personal feelings about Miyazaki's and Yamazaki's films, this is seriously impressive stuff."
https://blog.pureinventionbook.com/p/2023-the-year-japans-sun-rose-again
29. This is quite interesting. Dallas becoming a major financial center.
https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/major-banks-descend-on-dallas-5855684/
30. "As an entrepreneur, it’s essential not to get too caught up in the potential exit. The focus should be on enjoying the journey and continuing to build a great business. In 2011, we had one of our first serious opportunities to consider selling, but we chose to stay the course, and were better off for it."
https://davidcummings.org/2023/12/30/the-first-serious-acquisition-conversation/
31. A conversation on money. FIWOOT over FIRE. Financially Independent & Work On Own Terms.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TJndZbjxP4
32. "Private-sector groups are exempt from the bureaucratic red tape that surrounds aid delivered through official government channels. Government aid can take months to approve and even longer to deliver. But private-sector channels are able to deliver assistance within days. Many of these entities already have well-established relationships with military officials, diplomats, and others on the ground in Ukraine, which allows for timely and accurate updates from the frontlines. Information detailing the most critical needs can be relayed instantly, and tailored aid can quickly be delivered where needed.
Success in Ukraine is both a victory for Ukrainians and for strategic American interests. Our economic prosperity is directly linked to the European region, and the greatest threats to our national security are Russia and China. China is watching this war unfold, and if Russia comes out victorious, there is no doubt China will follow with its own acts of aggression. The consequences of this war will have a domino effect, and I can only hope that Americans — both within the government and private citizens — will help ensure that dominos are falling in our favor.
Russia will continue to exploit its support from our adversaries with drones from Iran and long-range missiles from North Korea. As long as this continues, we must respond with support for our friends in Ukraine. Ukraine remains resolute in its efforts to win this war, and to gamble otherwise is a mistake."
33. "Weaver, the founder and managing partner of Alpine Investors, has built a private equity empire with an emphasis on personal growth, an unusual topic in the world of cutthroat investing.
He credits the self-help genre for teaching him many of the techniques he has applied to his personal and professional lives.
Graham believes in self-improvement so much that he has built a personal brand at the intersection of entrepreneurship, investing, and self-help. His TikTok account has amassed nearly 1 million followers."
https://www.readtheprofile.com/p/the-profile-interview-meet-the-private
34. "Peterffy created Interactive Brokers in 1993 as a way to sell his firm's electronic trading capabilities to the public. In 2007, he sold 10% of Interactive's shares in a public offering, pocketing about $1 billion. Over the last 15 years, as high-frequency traders took over Interactive’s market making operations, Peterffy doubled down on growing the brokerage business, which today serves over 2.4 million customer accounts, including hedge funds and trading shops.
He owns about 75% of Interactive Brokers, which has a market capitalization of over $33 billion, making Peterffy one of the 25 wealthiest Americans with an estimated $26.2 billion fortune. He also holds an estimated $3 billion in investments and cash, as well as over 560,000 acres of land, primarily in Florida where he moved in 2014.
What I'm looking out for is where socialism may be coming next, and I think America is one of those places. So then I say to myself, “I don't want to be fully invested in the United States, where else should I be where there is some hope for private enterprise surviving?” I look at New Zealand, Australia, Canada, England, South America, and places like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. I'm not saying those places are better than here now, but things could be changing. The U.S. could be becoming more of a collectivist society. So where else is there a chance that capitalism will survive?
I basically think there are no important secrets in how to invest, and there is not a lot you can learn from others. It's all logical. The better you know the facts, and the more facts you know, the better you do as an investor. What I have learned through the many years I spent in these businesses is, there is no substitute for doing your own work."
https://archive.ph/4Js57#selection-519.0-519.803
35. "Fast forward to 2023, and a similar rush is unfolding, not for gold, but for AI technologies. The release of ChatGPT by OpenAI has sparked a modern-day Gold Rush in Silicon Valley, drawing in investors, engineers, and entrepreneurs, all chasing the dream of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This AI Rush, though more structured and organized than its 1848 counterpart, shares many parallels, particularly in the way opportunities are seized and value is created and captured.
One key question emerges: In this new era of technological prospecting, who will be the James Marshall, Samuel Brannan, Levi Strauss, or George Hearst of AI? As we navigate this modern Gold Rush, the lessons from 1848 remain ever-relevant, reminding us that in times of great opportunity, the most significant rewards often lie in understanding and adapting to the needs of the era."
https://fellowsfund.substack.com/p/1848-vs-2023-gold-rush-vs-ai-rush
36. A grim view of the economic future. Jim Rogers is an investing legend.