Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads January 5th, 2025
“You can’t use up creativity. The more you use, the more you have.” – Maya Angelou
"Black Label Logic clearly liked writing. He did it for 6 years. He published hundreds of articles and made countless podcasts.
And then he shut down and disappeared because his life got busier, he had to focus on his job, and his art wasn’t making enough money for it to be worth his time.
If you are any kind of an artist – writer, podcaster, YouTuber, creator, etc., learn from the mistake of Carl Adaugeo and his defunct blog Black Label Logic.
MONETIZE YOUR WORK. Do not be “above” making money. Do not act like selling is “bad”.
Earn a living from your art and do it virtuously. Create products and sell them at a decently high price point.
Make them so good that you can put your heart and soul into selling them. Make them so good that the customer is DELIGHTED when he buys them.
If you can do that you will stand the test of time. You will never shut down."
https://lifemathmoney.com/black-label-logic/
2. "There are several tech “strategies” we have seen successfully deployed to DoD. The first includes those creating entirely new technologies for defense use, like Anduril, which pioneers systems that require significant customer education and high R&D costs but establish deep tech moats and long-term influence over requirements. These startups must navigate a fine line of convincing the DoD to change how they operate in order to take advantage of modern technology opportunities. However, this path has the benefit of establishing a unique and defensible market position, typically resulting in the aforementioned PoRs.
Another strategy involves startups improving existing DoD technologies by reducing costs, improving usability, or expanding scalability. Companies like Apex Space and Albedo Space exemplify this strategy by refining satellite technology – satellite bus manufacturing and 10cm earth observation imagery respectively. The DoD already has access to satellite bus manufacturing technology and 10cm earth observation imagery, but the current state of the art for both technologies are extremely expensive and inefficient. While these startups avoid the need for customer education, they face the challenge of displacing entrenched vendors and risk competing primarily on price, requiring strong execution and process advantages.
The third strategy adapts private sector technologies for DoD use. For example, C3.AI developed data analytics products for the DoD, leveraging technology that had already demonstrated successfully in commercial applications. These startups focus on integration and execution moats rather than technical innovation, as their value lies in adapting existing tools to meet specific defense needs."
https://maggiegray.substack.com/p/mission-driven-metrics-a-framework
3. A true American hero here. He provides a good perspective on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnk8GQGkAjM
4. I've always enjoyed my time in Belgrade and Serbia in general. Been way too long since I've been back. Great food, nice people and amazing nightlife.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vyEzseB_VSs
5. LOVE Tbilisi. Yes, some big protests going on right now against the Russian influenced government. But it's a lovely and wonderful place. Can't wait to return there soon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmcIz-MhQ8g
6. Istanbul, what a grand city. The restaurant shown here Nisantsi Baskose is excellent. Been there a few times myself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5H01enlHDM
7. Always wanted to visit Bogota, and Colombia the country in general. One day. Enjoying this video series.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2T_LFhCYsDc
8. Frightening conversation but it's very clear China is the biggest threat to the West. And CCP have learned that the Western politicians are weak & cowardly from their haphazard approach to supporting Ukraine against Russia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__tFFlZKoMM
9. "If you aren’t sensing a theme here yet, let me make it explicit: China used the power of government subsidies to dominate the entire manufacturing world in 25 years. They may be smart. They may be hardworking. But the main reason they won was INSANE government subsidies that would give your favorite libertarian cold sweats.
Trump and JD Vance claim to want to bring back American manufacturing. Some of their advisors also claim to want small government. Unfortunately, this problem (imo) is ONLY solved by an extreme partnership between the government and private industry."
https://carriednointerest.substack.com/p/bringing-back-american-manufacturing
10. "The science on icy soaks is a bit murky. But you could still get something out of cold plunging—just maybe for a different reason than you think. “Lacking physiological evidence of the purported benefits, many of the positive effects associated with cold water immersion can be concluded to in part [be] due to a placebo effect,” Horan says. Meaning: If you think you’re less sore or stiff because you cold plunged, you’ll actually feel less sore and less stiff—and then you may be more likely to hit the gym and go at it again.
So the timing of your cold plunge could largely depend on what feels good for you, with the caveats being that you’ll want to let your body warm up if you’re plunging pre-workout, and you might undercut some muscular adaptations if you’re plunging after a resistance workout."
https://www.gq.com/story/cold-plunge-before-or-after-workout
11. "You have to understand – if you take entitlement and shit from people, more of it will be given to you.
Sometimes you need to show people their place. Especially people who have an air of unearned superiority who think they can say anything they want.
You need to have some a-shole in you."
https://lifemathmoney.com/sometimes-you-have-to-show-people-their-place/
12. "The reality is that, in many respects, Merkel paved the way to today’s crisis. Her advocacy for stringent austerity measures, implemented both across Europe and within Germany after the 2008 financial crisis, ushered in over a decade of stagnation and underinvestment. Her policies left Germany’s infrastructure — bridges, roads and railways — to crumble; her doubling down on Germany’s neo-mercantilist, export-driven economic model, especially during the euro crisis, stifled internal demand by compressing wages and encouraging precarious employment, while leaving the economy overly dependent on exports.
By pursuing an industrial policy that emphasised traditional manufacturing sectors — automobiles, heavy industry and mechanical parts — she left Germany lagging in the high-tech revolution. By phasing out nuclear energy, she deprived the country of a clean and cost-effective energy source. By opening the door to over a million asylum seekers, she created serious challenges in social cohesion and public safety. By embracing a paternalistic and TINA-driven approach to politics, exemplified in her concept of “market-conforming democracy”, she starved the German democratic discourse."
https://unherd.com/2024/11/angela-merkel-architect-of-german-decline/
13. "To me, this is just more schizophrenic / bi-polar market activity than any real indications of any structural issues. The Brazilian right absolutely hates Lula and is negative no matter what the reality is. Bolsonaro left the Lula government with increasing deficits, which the Lula government has actually been trying to reverse. Basically, try as I might, I can't really find anything truly wrong with Brazil, especially when measured on the same standard that other countries are. The trading action seems to come entirely down to ridiculous telenovela drama.
Buying Brazil worked out well for us in late 2022 / early 2023. I dare say it may be that time again. Any rally in EWZ should be hugely positive for Brazilian names like Vale and Braskem - names which I am now overweight - especially considering Vale is looking at big export increases in iron next year and Braskem is forecasting a return to positive FCF for 2025."
https://calvinfroedge.com/que-viva-b/
14. "Everyone goes to war with an idea of how they can win, and a few brilliant exceptions manage to pull it off. But not every campaign is France 1940. Even the best strategists face serious setbacks, and rarely end up winning precisely as they anticipated. The measure of strategic ability is not just the brilliance of the plan, but the ability to adapt to the unexpected. Older writers were correct: it is better to think of strategy as an action, not an idea."
https://dispatch.bazaarofwar.com/p/is-strategy-just-a-theory-of-victory
15. Russia's ongoing grey war against the west. The unfortunately effective unit at their forefront of this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gt6_9m5qXdU
16. Learning about this Agentic AI thing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZdfxRlMpxPg
17. "The first step to recovery is to recognize that one has a problem, and in the case of the United States foreign policy elite we seem no longer able to craft a workable strategy, operationalize and execute it to reach the proclaimed objectives.
We need to ask ourselves a simple question: Why has the United States been routinely unable to win wars over the past three decades (the Desert Storm battle to dislodge Iraq from Kuwait a notable exception)—not in the sense of breaking the adversary’s military and destroying its government, but when it comes to achieving the strategic objectives we set out to accomplish? Is it that we no longer have the resources to implement what we set out to do?
Or perhaps it is that what increasingly passes for strategy is more reminiscent of a policy conversation in a self-contained echo chamber, rather than being grounded in the realities of the Darwinian ecosystem we call international relations? I submit that it is the latter, and here is why."
https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2024/09/27/a_crisis_of_competence_1061277.html
18. Angola in play and shows the critical importance of minerals and natural resources in the new multipolar world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3b3FBvEB30
19. Always look at diversifying and it's super interesting. Watch capital flows.
This is a solid conversation on investing in the emerging markets.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jU2DZiCIGE
20. I truly hope Zeihan is right here. He seems way too confident that we can replace metal and mineral processing from China.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRT5MJBcd-c
21. Disturbing discussion on the surveillance and disinformation industry that operates in America and around the world. I believe probably 60-70% of this, which is frightening.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrJhQpvlkLA
22. Erik Prince always gives a cold & sober assessment of geopolitical events.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqusNtLF32s
23. "Bryce Roberts of Indie VC first highlighted the trend of “one-and-done” rounds back in 2017. Back then, it was something of a rarity, but these days a considerable number of founders are intentionally pursuing that path. At a broader level, the best founders today are raising fewer rounds with less dilution and/or skipping rounds altogether.
And many VCs are struggling to come to terms with this.
Firms with mediocre returns that don’t have much of a differentiator or positioning beyond “solid, inoffensive fund that’s a good fallback if you can’t raise from a top tier VC” are struggling to raise new funds or closing up shop entirely. Many individual investors who are later in their careers or who don’t have the inclination to reinvent themselves are opting out of venture capital as a career. Others who are refusing to adapt are being managed out by their firms."
https://chrisneumann.com/archives/venture-capitals-changing-of-the-guard
24. "In the year 2000, the United States and its allies in Asia, Europe, and Latin America accounted for the overwhelming majority of global industrial production, with China at just 6% even after two decades of rapid growth. Just thirty year later, UNIDO projects that China will account for 45% of all global manufacturing, singlehandedly matching or outmatching the U.S. and all of its allies.
This is a level of manufacturing dominance by a single country seen only twice before in world history — by the UK at the start of the Industrial Revolution, and by the U.S. just after World War 2. It means that in an extended war of production, there is no guarantee that the entire world united could defeat China alone.
That is a very dangerous and unstable situation. If it comes to pass, it will mean that China is basically free to start any conventional conflict it wants, without worrying that it will be ganged up on — because there will be no possible gang big enough to beat it. The only thing they’ll have to fear is nuclear weapons.
China’s leaders know this very well, of course, which is why they are unleashing a massive and unprecedented amount of industrial policy spending — in the form of cheap bank loans, tax credits, and direct subsidies — to raise production in militarily useful manufacturing industries like autos, batteries, electronics, chemicals, ships, aircraft, drones, and foundational semiconductors. This doesn’t just raise Chinese production — it also creates a flood of overcapacity that spills out into global markets and forces American, European, Japanese, Korean, and Taiwanese companies out of the market.
By creating overcapacity, China is forcibly deindustrializing every single one of its geopolitical rivals. Yes, this reduces profit for Chinese companies, but profit is not the goal of war.
America’s most economically important allies — Germany and Japan — are bearing the brunt of China’s most recent industrial assault.
Except then a war comes, and suddenly you find that B2B SaaS and advertising platforms and chat apps aren’t very useful for defending your freedoms. Oops! The right time to worry about manufacturing would have been years before the war, except you weren’t able to anticipate and prepare for the future. Manufacturing doesn’t just support war — in a very real way, it’s a war in and of itself."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/manufacturing-is-a-war-now
25. "The only point of money is to improve your life, make sure you know what the plan is. House, car, whatever it is. Do not forget the point of the digits on a screen
Do not kill your health or personal life. You are allowed to catch the mania a bit, but giving up your health isn’t worth it for the extra 10% returns you “could have made”. Doesn’t make any sense and you’ll pay for it dearly on the come down during the next bear market (we don’t plan on riding that one down)
Rule #1 - No Round Numbers: On the paid side we’ve walked through tons of personal examples of when we’d recommend taking money off the table. In the free side it’s easier to explain it like this: No round numbers.
If you’re young and the number is $1M? Guess what you’ll probably hit $876,000 or something close and then we have the massive correction.
If your number is $5M? Probably you hit $4,678,923 and then suddenly a massive -70% correction. So on and so forth."
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/mental-health-and-lady-luck-during
26. "The core question in this scenario is what portion of the returns in seed investing will come from the proven, repeat founders who the multi-stage funds are likely to attract. If you believe 75% or more of the future returns in seed will come from this population, there is a strong argument that the multi-stage funds will dominate seed.
The remaining alpha available to seed specialist firms is too small to support the number of seed-focused firms in the market today. I have spoken with institutional LPs who do believe multi-stage funds will capture enough of the alpha in seed to obviate the need to focus on dedicated seed-only managers. I would not describe this as a consensus opinion, but it is one that I’ve heard enough times to know that it is a view held by some who allocate capital to private equity and venture. I do not think that 75% of the best opportunities in seed will come from that pool of founders, but I also believe proven, repeat founders will make a meaningful contribution to overall seed returns.
I have spoken to many smaller, sub $200 million fund managers with strong opinions about how good multi-stage funds will be at seed investing. While we can argue about how successful these larger firms will be, there is no argument about whether they will be run; LPs have already voted with their dollars, and this will happen."
https://chudson.substack.com/p/three-future-states-of-the-early
27. "I have my own three-pronged theory about why crypto is one of the fastest-growing networks in human history.
Government Capture – Big business, big tech, big pharma, big military, and big [Fill in the Blank] have used their wealth and power to capture most large governments and economic blocs. While the standard of living and lifespan gains have been rapid and consistent since the end of WW2, they have slowed for the 90% of the population that owns very few financial assets and ultimately possesses little to no political agency. Decentralization is the antidote to a dystopian concentration of wealth and power.
Magical Tech – The Bitcoin blockchain and the plethora of blockchains that spawned in its wake are pieces of magical new technology. From an innocuous beginning, Bitcoin, at least, has proven to be one of the most battle-tested monetary systems. There is an almost $2 trillion bug bounty in the form of Bitcoins that can be double-spent for anyone who can hack the network.
Greed – The rise of the fiat and energy value of cryptos that power blockchains or the tokens created via these blockchains made users rich. The riches of the crypto cohort were on display this November during the US election. The US, like most other nation-states, features a pay-for-play political system. The crypto banditos were one of the largest contributors to political candidates of any industry, which resulted in wins for pro-crypto candidates. Crypto voters were able to shower largesse upon political campaigns because Bitcoin is the fastest-growing asset in human history."
https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/the-cure
28. Always a good episode on what’s up in cultural businesses and tech at the edge of the internet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxluK76HuEE&t=55s
29. Ed Sims and Boldstart VC has crushed it at seed stage. They know and choose the specific game they want to play (inception rounds), and not try to be something they aren't. Something we can all learn from.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSPpQFEmHX8
30. Hard truth: China has always been an aggressive, expansive power since the beginning of their history. We the West are in Cold War 2 with the CCP.
Great discussion with someone who actually understands China.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TR8kn92HNRc
31. "To summarize: These things are important for defense applications, especially electronic warfare and communications. Perhaps China is cutting us off from them to show force, leverage in future negotiations, or because they rightly want to kneecap us the way we kneecap them. It’s a move that we should respect and should have expected.
Additionally, although we're not going to run out tomorrow, we need to get ready and it’s frankly a little surprising to me that we’re not already moving forward on initiatives to start Gallium mining. Maybe there are and it’s not public, but I am skeptical.
We should take this whole thing as a “learning moment”: Free trade is a national security risk when you’re obtaining a critical component from your adversaries. Overregulation killed an industry, one of many, and we now have to make the right decisions, not just for Gallium, for America’s industrial and mining base as a whole."
https://www.glinert.co/p/china-just-kicked-us-in-the-shins
32. Some good investigative work here. Definitely Ukrainian & Turkish intelligence and special ops involved here in Syria.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iCGEWrgX54c
33. Jeff Bezos, some of the clearest thinking and communications around. "We are in multiple golden ages at once"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s71nJQqzYRQ&t=4s
34. "Unlike the classic apex predator, which evolves alongside its prey, a nonnative apex predator arrives with such disruptive force that instead of dominating an ecosystem they transform it. Legacy media looks like Florida 30 years after the arrival of the Burmese python. A nonnative apex predator (digital) is out-hunting and out-reproducing the previous apex predator (legacy media).
An apex predator released into the wild has reproduced asexually, doesn’t need distribution partners, and is devouring the ecosystem. Since launching its original content business in 2012, Netflix’s market cap has increased 7,337%. This means the industry is booming for all involved, no? The dominant means of production for scripted television is Netflix, which has flexed this muscle to reshape the flows of value. Specifically, it has reduced production costs, while massively investing to create an explosion in the amount of content, transferring value from all parts of the ecosystem to the company’s shareholders and subscribers. If you live in L.A., you’ve likely given 4 stars to a former producer of a reality-TV series.
There are 180,000 members of SAG-AFTRA, and last year 86% of them didn’t qualify for health insurance, as they made less than $26k. Constant reminders from CNBC re the market touching new highs masks a deeper issue: As in the future described by William Gibson, the future/prosperity of media is here, just not evenly distributed. AI, Netflix, and the Big Tech platforms are eating everything, and they have few, if any, predators. The deer and alligators (industry workers) have no means of defense, because they’ve never encountered this species/technology before. The result is an atmosphere of anxiety and fear. These emotions are common sense."
https://www.profgalloway.com/media-consolidation/
35. Enjoyed this week's episode with two special guests: Joe Lonsdale & Gavin Baker. Heartened by the convo on AI, Defensetech and rare earths. But we got a lot of work to do.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2xfW3hgxb4
36. "While it’s popular to say, “Follow your passion,” it’s better for potential entrepreneurs to develop an eye for how the world is evolving. Becoming a student of what’s changing and why will lead to opportunities."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/12/07/the-unknown-entrepreneur-arc/
37. What an interview. Javier Milei, responsible for the turnaround of Argentina. The battle needs to be fought at both the economic and cultural level. Some lessons to be learned here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NLzc9kobDk
38. An excellent discussion with one of the top VC investors in Europe with an incredible investing track record. Valuable conversation on the art of venture investing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9MK3n9m7SM
39. Quite an interesting conversation on how and what Western analysts got wrong on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.