Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads July 10th, 2022
“There is only one thing that makes a dream impossible to achieve: the fear of failure.”
― Paulo Coelho
"The American Dream used to stand for a job with a loyal employer, homeownership (often accompanied by a white picket fence), and your own set of wheels. The pandemic has given Americans the Great Resignation, a housing market that won’t stop appreciating and a used-car and gas price crisis amid 40-year-high inflation.
Maybe the villas of Portugal or beaches of Greece would be more appealing—or at least warmer. If you're one of the ultra-wealthy, leaving your pool and hot tub behind for such a life seems to increasingly beckon.
As life in America becomes more stressful and expensive, U.S. citizens have been investing in a “Golden Visa,” a program in which purchasing a second home in a different country entitles buyers to a second passport or a pathway to citizenship."
2. This is important to understand. Zeihan has been right more than wrong. Global economy and Geopolitics in time of deGlobalization & Depopulation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LI4mDQeo9eE
3. "The character is a familiar type for Pitt—likable, flawed, a little eccentric—and he plays the part with an easy charm and self-effacing humor that evokes some of his other recent roles, like Cliff Booth in Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood. To Quentin Tarantino, who directed Pitt in that role, as well as in Inglourious Basterds, Pitt’s shape-shifting as an actor is evidence of a kind of screen presence we just don’t see much anymore.
“He suggests an older-style movie star,” Tarantino tells me over the phone. “He’s really good-looking. He’s also really masculine and he’s also really hip; he gets the joke.… But the thing that only the directors that work with Brad and the actors that act opposite him really know, what he’s so incredibly talented at, is his ability to really understand the scene. He might not be able to articulate it, but he has an instinctive understanding about it.”
What Pitt exudes, Tarantino says, is a rare timelessness. “He’s one of the last remaining big-screen movie stars,” the director tells me, equating his star quality with that of Paul Newman, Robert Redford, and Steve McQueen. “It’s just a different breed of man. And frankly, I don’t think you can describe exactly what that is because it’s like describing starshine."
https://www.gq.com/story/brad-pitt-august-cover-profile
4. This thread is a good one on the future of the geopolitical world. I also agree Dalio is wrong on China's rise and USA's fall (despite an incompetent political class & elite).
https://twitter.com/wolf_vukovic/status/1540378141612421121
5. Thread on energy being life. Civilized life. Worthy reminder.
https://mobile.twitter.com/DoombergT/status/1540663889804857344
6. This here is one of the best actors around. Cillian is masterful in the final season of "Peaky Blinders." Very good interview.
https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/culture/article/cillian-murphy-interview-2022
7. “I’ve always felt like an outsider,” Isaac says. He is talking about the characters he feels drawn to as an actor—how they, too, are often outsiders, people grappling with their place in their world. “Literally, and then emotionally, psychologically. I always felt like I was observing life and not actually experiencing it. There was a lot of guilt with that sometimes—feeling like I was a vulture of my own life.”
https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/tv/a39520165/oscar-isaac-interview-moon-knight-star-wars
8. "While the details of Parallel’s financial struggles are unique to the company, in many ways its plight is emblematic of the broader cannabis industry. Even as the weed market continues to boom as legalization spreads rapidly across the country — sales are projected to hit $32 billion this year, more than doubling since 2019, according to New Frontier Data — most companies continue to hemorrhage money and stock prices have collapsed over the last year. The continued federal illegality of marijuana means that companies face sky-high taxes, steep barriers to access capital and stiff competition from the entrenched illicit market.
“The challenge with cannabis is that it’s a very capital intensive industry … especially [building a] vertically integrated [and multi-state company] like Parallel,” said Neil Kaufman, a corporate cannabis attorney based in New York. "[Parallel] had that classic challenge of needing a lot of money and taking longer than they had planned to get to cash flow positive.”
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/06/12/weed-wrigley-lawsuit-00036864
9. This seems pretty BS but if you are a big Corp this does actually make sense.
"As the CEO of Lemonade learned, companies that are granted color trademarks often go to great lengths to enforce them in court — and competitors often challenge their right to monopolize certain hues."
https://thehustle.co/can-a-corporation-trademark-a-color
10. "I heard one I hadn’t heard before: the founder acts as a shock absorber for the startup.
The more I think about this, the more I like it. A shock absorber is defined as “something that serves to reduce or mitigate the worst effects of an unwelcome occurrence or experience.” In startupland, high highs and low lows are a regular occurrence. While thoughtful transparency of the good and bad is often the right approach, it does need to be modulated and presented with the appropriate commentary."
https://davidcummings.org/2022/06/25/founder-as-shock-absorber-for-the-startup
11."Once you've identified the thing you want (e.g. "participating in this thing called the internet") then you create a list of risks that you'll want to minimize. The best example of this came recently in a conversation I had with someone who was choosing between two different jobs with the long-term intention of becoming a founder. He could either work at a seed-stage startup or a later-stage company.
If he lets short-term time frames determine his definition of success then he would solve for things like comfort and compensation. But the natural selection of time is always long-term. In the long-term how will time impact the outcome of your decisions?
When you prioritize the long-term outcome of success as a startup founder you start to identify key risks that you can allow your short-term decisions to help de-risk your experience in the future. The most common risks to a new startup founder? Product-market fit. Co-founder risk. Hiring risk. The ability to sell. The ability to fundraise.
So what can you do with your decision today to de-risk your outcome tomorrow?"
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/the-natural-selection-of-time
12. "Unlike arrangements made behind closed doors, decentralized decision-making allows for community members to partake in the governance of an organization by creating and voting on policy proposals that lead to outcomes desired by the people. With the right catalysts, Decentralized Autonomous Organizations — DAOs — have proven that strangers across the globe can coordinate in a trust-less, democratic way to align on the strategic steps that best fit the needs and goals of many organizations. While decentralization itself remains an experiment, it is gaining traction as the fairest approach to organizational decision-making today.
The need for decentralized versus centralized structures exists on an ever-swinging pendulum dependent on the conditions and variables of certain time periods. In our history, centralized decision-making has led to some of the greatest feats of mankind, however, today’s conditions press us to turn back to decentralization as the model that fosters the restructuring needed to build back a better world and a more sustainable future."
13. "The global balance of power is underwritten by U.S. military supremacy, which is in turn based on maintaining a very large and technologically advanced military that can, among other things, field overwhelming airpower. The advanced weapons systems that U.S. military might depends on in turn depend on wide-ranging and complex global supply chains. The high domestic political cost of losing U.S. soldiers abroad further reinforces the U.S. strategy of technological supremacy overwhelming opponents with minimum U.S. casualties.
Whether or not the U.S. is able to ramp up production and supply during a crisis is thus a key factor that determines its ability to maintain the global balance of power. The U.S. military is not designed to fight wars without missiles, planes, and computers.
Intervention in conflicts like the one in Ukraine, or in future conflicts in Taiwan, the Korean peninsula, or Iran, will require vast increases in production of both basic goods such as prepackaged food and ammunition, as well as much more complex and advanced systems like missiles and smart munitions."
14. "Just like on the Schuylkill, there are floaters lurking just below the surface of the capital markets. These are companies or hedge funds that seem to be getting along fine, until some calamitous volatility event fatally compromises their ability to remain a going concern. To the untrained eye, these zombies might have appeared to be alive and well– but they got deaded a long time ago by unsustainable business models and trading strategies. This past week witnessed the lightspeed bankruptcy / insolvency of a few high profile business and hedge funds that previously were thought to be masters of the metaverse.
Unlike the human dead, the living dead of capital markets carry their possessions with them into the river Styx, bobbing just out of sight underneath opaque waters. It is only once their souls finally succumb to their macabre reality, and market conditions force their carcasses to the surface, that these companies’ worldly possessions are unearthed — and ultimately auctioned off in a fire sale. For those intrepid living capital markets explorers who possess the resources to harvest the fruits of the dead, the capital markets zombie apocalypse is welcomed.
During the fire sale of the dead, pristine assets with solid fundamentals suddenly become inexpensive. But beware, not all assets are made equal. Many of the zombies’ possessions deserve to travel with their hosts down to the underworld. It requires the utmost discipline to separate what is irrationally cheap from what fundamentally deserves to perish. The key determining factor is always cash flow."
https://entrepreneurshandbook.co/floaters-1085be6d6ffd
15. This was a fun documentary of a trip through Canada, USA and Mexico. Lots of beautiful cinematography of lovely landscapes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNpFaqupAYM
16. "So on a two to three years outlook Russia faces a collapse in export receipts, with almost no access to international financing because of sanctions and default. Meanwhile, with much of Putin’s military having been destroyed in Ukraine, he will struggle to finance military rebuild which he will be desperate to achieve given his desire to retain some kind of parity with NATO.
That means that the Putin regime will have to divert all resources away from consumption to military investment. It will all have a feel of decay circa late 70s, early 80s Soviet Union. And decay and decline is the outlook here for Putin’s Russia and a large part of that is because of today’s default."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/russia-in-default-so-what
17. Tim Kennedy is awesome. We need more of this in America.
Great documentary.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDxvDQHfrGE
18. Cannot agree with this more.
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/make-russia-pay-now
19. All the journalists, analysts and amateur tacticians should listen to the expert, losing ground is not losing the war. Ex-Major General Ryan knows what he is talking about.
"George Washington lost many of his battles, and gave up territory, but kept his Continental Army alive to eventually win the war (with the help of his French allies).
So too must the Ukrainians cede ground at times to win this war. Despite their enormous courage, the Ukrainians must not be drawn into an attritional fight with a Russian Army that prefers to fight this way.
This week's events have shown again that losing territory is bad for a country at war, but losing your army is fatal.
The Ukrainians have had a terrible week. But it is not the same as them losing the war."
20. Ian Bremmer is a smart guy and one of the best geopolitical observers around. This was very educational.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AO1Mojss--s
21."Just ask yourself the following: Why can't you vote on: 1) money printing, 2) interest rates, 3) taxes, 4) school curriculum for your kids and 5) war spending? Financial literacy isn’t taught in school for a reason would be our guess.
Save yourself because no one else will. Hopefully we can all agree on that!"
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/media-manipulating-your-focus-current
22. Brave men, nonetheless. Foreign volunteers helping defend Ukraine from the Russian barbarian orcs. #SlavaUkraini
"The diversity of fighting forces underscored the spectrum of motivations and personalities converging—the makeshift armies were variously composed of danger junkies and sinister right-wing nationalists, shameless opportunists and good people seeking a good war. There were men like Watson with roots in Ukraine, and others, like Casey, driven by a deep humanitarian impulse.
Then there were those like Michael Young, moved by a tangle of motives that he had struggled to understand: moral outrage, a thirst for adventure, a yearning for redemption. Young’s lifelong restlessness and search for fulfillment had taken him, step by step, to the edge of a catastrophic conflict in a land far from home, and would, over the next weeks, draw him in even deeper."
https://www.gq.com/story/ukraines-last-chance-brigade
23. This is really awesome for Europe. And much needed. Plural VC: 250M Euro Founder led Fund.
https://www.ft.com/content/9e3eaca6-5949-4791-931f-7c703f796843
24. Kissinger has sold out so many small countries in his Realpolitik. Anthony Bourdain was right.
“Once you’ve been to Cambodia, you’ll never stop wanting to beat Henry Kissinger to death with your bare hands. You will never again be able to open a newspaper and read about that treacherous, prevaricating, murderous scumbag sitting down for a nice chat with Charlie Rose or attending some black-tie affair for a new glossy magazine without choking.
Witness what Henry did in Cambodia – the fruits of his genius for statesmanship – and you will never understand why he’s not sitting in the dock at The Hague next to Milošević.”
25. "Given Indonesia’s remarkable history, I am optimistic that this program can succeed. Indonesia has already partially industrialized, democratized, and then maintained steady growth despite substantial deindustrialization. And the overall growth of Southeast Asia, especially with the increasing exodus from China, has created very favorable conditions for manufacturing in the region. If any country is versatile and flexible enough to come back from deindustrialization, it’s Indonesia."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/indonesia-the-most-amazing-development
26. Congrats to my friends at Ascend Vietnam Ventures!
https://www.techinasia.com/axie-infinity-backers-fund-exceeds-50m-target
27. Overall good & interesting interview on Asian stocks. I've long been a fan of the Wandering Investor.
But his apolitical & libertarian "I don't care about politics because its not my business" is stupid (and weak) in this day and age.
You will lose money this way and you will need to take a stand eventually.
https://mailchi.mp/789ef55acce0/investing-in-asian-value-stocks
28. Turkey is so well positioned for the future except for the horrendous economic policy in place now.
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/turkey-where-is-the-market-love
29. "As is Turkey markets are calm this morning - not rallying but at least not collapsing which likely would have been the case if Erdogan had upheld his veto.
Sense here that US Treasury officials’ visit to Turkey last week played some role also - F16 financing, Halkbank likely topics.
Erdogan remains in the game for the 23’ elections. This is not a game changer for him therein but at least it’s not a killer blow as a balance of payments crisis surely would have been.
And the big loser here is Putin. Many Turks told me that Turkey could not choose between Russia and the West, actually many said Erdogan would choose Putin. Well Erdogan did not which just shows that in the end Turkey is anchored into the West. When push comes to shove, Turks look West."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/nato-decision-a-win-for-swinn
30. Kaboom! Batch 14 represent! Congrats to Olivier Pailhes, Jonathan Anguelov & the Aircall Team.
https://medium.com/@Olivierpailhes/the-aircall-story-by-founders-da8a07d32321
31. Very much needed in Europe to say the least.
“Plural” is a new €250 million early-stage venture fund started by Ian Hogarth (formerly Songkick), Tamkivi, Hinrikus and Khaled Helioui (a former tech CEO). The fund founders say other tech founder/partners will be unveiled in due course and that they have ambitions to lead early-stage funding rounds from the earliest stages all the way up to €10 million. The band will also focus on four to five deals a year per investor, so that they can be “hands-on.”
As the Plural founders point out, less than 10% of investors in Europe are former operators, in contrast to more than half of tech investors in the U.S. This means founders miss out on the experience of other founders-turned-investors, and it’s a valid criticism."
32. I was a fan of Richard Branson, even more so now. #SlavaUkraini
"I was given the opportunity to say a few words, and wanted to convey what I think many of us in the West feel: every day, Ukrainians are fighting and dying for the entire free world. The least the rest of the world can do is to give our unwavering and unconditional support until the last Russian soldier leaves Ukrainian territory. Anything else would be defeat – not just defeat to Ukraine’s right to freely choose its own destiny, but also to the rule of law and the sovereignty of nations."
https://www.virgin.com/branson-family/richard-branson-blog/visiting-ukraine
33. Blade Runner and its sequel are great films but not so great at the economic forecast side of things. But that’s also why they call it Dystopian.
"It’s my guess that our appreciation of Blade Runner and Blade Runner 2049 will only increase in the years and decades ahead. But that increased appreciation will more likely be driven by what the films say about human interaction with AI than about the flaws of capitalism."
https://fasterplease.substack.com/p/-40-years-later-blade-runners-dystopian
34. Super impressed by what the EF team has done. Big fan and we need more of what they are doing across the world.
35. Always learn new things. I may not agree with everything said here but it's an important perspective & discussion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lrOjNsPzww
36. Easy to snipe but it’s still too early to judge right now. At same time VCs are experts at private markets not public. Crossover funds are challenging as its hard to be good at both.
"Two of Sequoia Capital’s largest bets have been cratering on the public markets — yet the firm still holds the vast majority of its original ownership positions.
If Unity and DoorDash’s share prices don’t rebound significantly, Sequoia may have missed out on more than $7 billion in returns."