Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads July 3rd, 2022
“Be like a duck, paddling and working very hard inside the water, but what everyone sees is a smiling and calm face.” –Manoj Arora
"This was a theme of our conversations, that if McGregor has entered a new phase in midlife – new show, new success, new marriage, new child – it’s not by grand design. He can be erratic, he says. He works by feeling. He can be accused of doing too much. I point out that for work he is constantly in front of cameras; and when he’s not acting, he and his best friend disappear for months to ride bikes and be vulnerable in front of yet more cameras.
He returns to the idea of being on a journey, regardless of the destination. In our first conversation, he told me that he and Boorman had trouble initially selling their motorcycle show to networks because they wanted it to be about an epic quest – and that was it. “We couldn’t believe the sort of ideas that people wanted to slap on top of it. To make it a TV show to them, it had to be something else. And we were adamant that the journey is enough.”
https://www.gq.com/story/ewan-mcgregor-the-jedi-returns
2. "Most people don’t think about diversification past the platitudes. I’ve had thousands of conversations on risk management in the past few years, and haven’t heard any real original thinking on the topic in that time.
If the topic is raised to an efficient market disciple, they’ll quote Markowitz “diversification is the only free lunch”, if the manager goes to Omaha each year they’ll quote Buffet “diversification is a protection against ignorance”. If the manager has really gone out of their way to read about diversification, they will bring up Ray Dalio’s famous chart on the number of securities held vs. the reduction in volatility."
https://kellysalpha.substack.com/p/youre-diversifying-wrong
3. So many truths here on why money matters. And how to get it. Tate's mindset is worth learning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nvcZaD8vQk
4. Definitely checking out this book: "Immortal King Rao."
"In Vauhini Vara’s The Immortal King Rao, the East India Company provides the historical antecedent for a system of government performed by a corporate entity known only as the Board, a tech megacorporation turned dystopian state. When the Board takes control of the world, “historians later noted that there had been plenty of historical precedent,” Vara writes. “You could go at least as far back, they said, as the British East India Company.”
https://www.vox.com/culture/23171264/immortal-king-rao-review-vauhini-vara
5. Peloton as a platform.
"Love, a former dancer, was already working with both the Nets and Adidas when she joined Peloton as a cycling instructor in 2016, but since then, her opportunities have grown significantly. She has partnered with Nissan, NARS, and massage-device maker Therabody. She’s also built her own brand, and fans can purchase $25 socks or $78 sweatpants with the Love Squad logo on her website.
She recently spent time in London hosting an upcoming Netflix dance competition. “I’ve opted into the slash generation,” she says, referring to the phenomenon of millennials with multiple income streams. “I can get a little impatient if I’m doing the exact same thing every day.
These instructors may film eight Peloton classes a week and spend hours planning workouts, creating playlists, and writing scripts for future sessions. But these days, that’s just the baseline. Having built considerable followings on social media, they’ve also become influencers, able to drive fans who admire their lifestyle to buy the items they’re hawking. They’re so sought-after, in fact, that some now have their own agents and earn a sizable portion of their income through endorsement deals and partnerships, appearing in traditional advertising and posting sponsored content.
And they hold sway over a particularly affluent audience. Peloton charges nearly $2,000 for its newest bike—and that’s before the cost of cycling shoes, weights, and a monthly subscription for classes. The Peloton bike (or lightly fictionalized versions of it) has featured prominently on shows like Emily in Paris and Curb Your Enthusiasm as a signal of wealth and privilege. Instructors benefit from that cultural cachet.”
https://time.com/6187968/peloton-instructors-money-famous
6. "The Russian onslaught consumes ammunition at rates that massively exceed US forecasts & ammunition production. For US to act as arsenal in defence of Ukraine, there must be a major look at the manner/scale at which US organises its industrial base"
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare
7. "The next time an entrepreneur asks what it takes to be successful, consider the idea, “be single-minded long enough to get lucky.”
https://davidcummings.org/2022/06/18/be-single-minded-long-enough-to-get-lucky
8. "In fact, if you’d diversified equally across all the aforementioned assets, you’d overall be considerably up, not down. And at a time when the whole world is freaking out about an economic crisis, you would be sitting back calmly wondering what all the fuss was about.
It’s all about perspective.
In reality, it’s only people who are all-in on stocks, cash, or crypto who are feeling like it’s armageddon right now. So of course, that’s what the narrative is focusing on.
But if you’ve been paying attention, you should know not to trust the mainstream narrative by now.
So start thinking about how you can use the current economic climate to your own benefit, at a time when almost everyone else is only seeing a smouldering wreck.
If anything though, this should be another sign that if you’re not yet heavily diversified, now may be the best time to get that part of your financial house in order. Because the numbers don’t lie, and with each passing crisis it becomes increasingly obvious that it’s those who put their faith in only a few asset classes that suffer the most."
https://abundantia.substack.com/p/our-money-is-burning
9. This is one of the best discussions on how to get through the upcoming tech downturn and macroeconomic downturn.
https://mobile.twitter.com/bgurley/status/1537156295362351104
10. "The fact that a technology attracts manic boom/bust capital is no reflection on the technology itself. It is a reflection on the market’s tendency towards irrationality.
This was the case with bicycles and the Internet. And it will most likely be the case with crypto.
There will be plenty of crypto businesses, and many tokens themselves, that will (and should) go bust.
But there are still plenty of great projects and great ideas out there– most notably, the fundamental idea of having a decentralized financial system.
Our traditional financial system, dominated by clueless politicians and out of touch central bankers, has been a total disaster. It is responsible for the record-high debt and record-high inflation which are disrupting the lives of literally billions of people.
Given these conditions, the decentralized financial system that cryptocurrency represents makes more sense than ever. And the fact that Bitcoin is going through another ‘down phase’ in the market cycle bears absolutely no relevance to its value whatsoever.
History is almost invariably on the side of innovation. And there’s still an abundance of innovation in crypto."
https://www.sovereignman.com/trends/history-is-not-on-the-side-of-the-cryptos-grave-dancers-35604
11. "This is a foundational concept across all of finance and business. Time value of money calculations are nearly always involved when a business owner has to value a project or decide on a project to choose. Similarly, the present value of cashflows is the entire concept behind the “discounted cash flow” (DCF) method used in valuing a stock. This underpins concepts like payback period, internal rate of return, and value of business.
Time value of money is also a concept poorly understood and underutilized in the personal finance space. The decision on college should be based largely around tradeoffs using time value of money, similar to how a business decides if it is worth the cost to invest in a project."
https://effsigive.substack.com/p/time-value-of-money
12. The title says it all. This is why I don't trust any government in the world at all (granted some are worse than others). They are both evil and incompetent.
"There are no votes/voting system for interest rates or for money printing. Despite this fact republicans and democrats all fight each other online and in public. Crime begins to rise and layoffs begin. Again. The entire history written is largely due to decision you were not allowed to vote on. Please read that again. These decisions were primarily made without any of your input."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/total-incompetence-or-extreme-evil
13. This is the dumbest thing I've seen in a long time. Ad agency trying to be cool but showing they can never be so. So embarrassing.
https://www.adweek.com/agencies/publicis-chief-metaverse-officer-is-a-lion-named-leon
14. "This theme is as old as human civilization itself, and we can see many of the same extravagances and follies from the Mughal Empire in our world today.
This time is not different, and it’s why diversifying internationally makes so much sense… why having a Plan B makes so much sense."
15. For founders targeting the SMB space this is worth reading.
https://mobile.twitter.com/gokulr/status/1538702838922039296
16. "Ukraine needs a large volume of Western weapons, especially more of our advanced long-range artillery and missile systems to outgun the Russians and offset their numerical superiority. And it needs to receive those systems now."
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/06/ukraine-needs-more-western-weapons-now
17. Another reason that Putin and his cronies are war criminals. The massive and avoidable famine coming in much of the developing world due to his illegal war and blockade.
#SlavaUkraini
https://www.vox.com/23171151/ukraine-grain-wheat-russia-black-sea-odesa-food-crisis
18. Russia: a menace to global society.
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/russia-to-neighbours-are-worried
19. Lots to learn from Argentineans and their horrifically incompetent government. USA is going that direction.
Yet I'm a huge fan of Buenos Aires and I will be spending more time there in 2023!
"Buenos Aires is a great city if you have a WiFi income stream of about 2-5k a month, and quality of life in that case is very high. Private healthcare is great and affordable, and food & travel in the country is awesome."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/how-to-survive-in-a-world-of-hyperinflation
20. I'd normally be against government solution but these are so critical that it might be the only situation I'd agree with. (assuming it’s done intelligently which is not a foregone conclusion).
"Ultimately the energy and food markets are not true free markets that result in competition, but actually function as cartels that collude to fix prices in an effort to achieve geopolitical goals. That requires intervention from government.
Regulators should be aware of the bigger picture and be prepared to deal with other parts of this framework from an information and kinetic warfare perspective. We’re not dealing with “economics as usual” and we should be prepared to imaginatively deploy every available tool to disrupt these hybrid warfare strategies."
21. This is an excellent AMA done by the NIA crew. Lots of good stuff i've learned here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OnLJ5MXrkWI
22. "His best hope, in pressing on with his current strategy, is that at some point, preferably quite soon, Ukraine’s Western supporters will tire of the war and its economic costs and urge Kyiv to accept some territorial compromise. Here his problem is that there is also paralysis of a different sort on the Western side. The economic costs are high, but they have already been incurred.
The commitment to Ukraine, and to ensuring that Russia does not win its war of conquest, has been made. So long as Ukraine continues to fight, and suffer the costs, then even leaders who think a compromise might at some point be necessary are holding their tongues.
The West is settling in for the long haul, looking for ways to keep Ukraine supplied with the weapons and ammunition it needs, while adjusting foreign policies to be able to concentrate on the war. The fight can be presented as a conflict between democracy and autocracy. But at its core it is also now about the future of the European security order, and if that means improving relations with autocracies, whether in urging the Saudis to pump more oil or keeping relations with China calm, then so be it."
https://samf.substack.com/p/paralysis-in-moscow
23. This is a good interview. The Wandering Investor! Contrarian investing.
https://mailchi.mp/b93f3026d62a/uranium-coal-cold-war-cannabis-investing-in-the-2020s?e=123a1c25c4
24. "The most iconic companies of the last decade were created during the Great Recession of 2008-2009: Uber, Airbnb, Whatsapp, Instagram and countless others. We expect that many of the most important companies of the coming decade will be created in the years to come.
Considering the environment, the founders will build more sound companies raising the right amount of capital at reasonable valuations, taking care of their burn, and focusing on their unit economics. Because they will face less competition, they will benefit from lower customer acquisition costs and will be more likely to dominate their category."
https://fabricegrinda.com/the-benefits-of-flexibility-and-reading-the-macro-tea-leaves-in-venture
25. Super good stuff. International founders coming to SF Bay Area, read this please.
https://chrisneumann.com/blog/youre-not-from-around-these-parts
26. "Ukraine needs more than symbols, and more than weapons. Not losing is not winning, and it will take a long and deep commitment by the western world to help Ukraine both win and then heal."
https://time.com/6176748/ukraine-war-economy
27. This is a very damn good conversation.
We need to support the US military and defense industry.
But I also like the fact that they actually talked through this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nK0NfL2M5L4
28. "Kasparov’s overall thesis on Russia is of course not new, he has been out there giving warnings for the last twenty years. It was good however to hear him succinctly outline in person how Putin’s agenda has always been very clear. Dictators argued Kasparov don’t ask “Why”?” but ask “Why not?” and the continuous expansion of Russia’s military adventures in former Soviet territory are the exact evidence of this approach.
The West has absolutely no other option than to ensure that Ukraine wins. Any other outcome would be devastating and unleash further conquests and instability orchestrated by the Kremlin. This week’s turbulence over Kaliningrad and Lithuania is a good example of that. Any discussion over Putin’s health are sideshows, quite likely deliberate disinformation, and irrelevant according to Kasparov. Keep our eyes on the war, arm Ukraine and ensures it wins was the conclusion: there is no other way about it."
https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/war-and-tech-merge
29. This is a good one. Mentally preparing for the recession.
https://ckarchive.com/b/75u7h8hkkwpq9
30. "Don Valentine, founder of Sequoia, went to a Silicon Valley bar every Wednesday and Friday to chat with engineers about the next big thing. In the world of startups, investors are the specialists in connecting people with each other.
The more interesting people we meet, the better we’ll be at our job!"
https://tremendous.blog/2022/06/23/the-power-law-part-one
31. Fascinating fellow.
"In America, which takes its uneasy and often forgetful relationship to its own empire as a mark of virtue, Luttwak’s fate was otherwise. Unlike, say, Henry Kissinger, whose chilly Germanic brain made him an influential courtier in six or eight administrations, not to mention incredibly rich—Luttwak would remain a gadfly in the corridors of power.
Where Kissinger was cold, Luttwak was hot. Where Kissinger flattered, Luttwak was abrasive, and delighted in puncturing authority. Where Kissinger was cerebral, and talked about systems, Luttwak was hot-blooded, and wanted to touch and feel the stuff that the world is made of. He was too unruly and unflattering and independent-minded to be given any real responsibility for anything. No one wants a bona fide monster as secretary of defense.
On the other hand, Luttwak was too smart, with his big 16-cylinder brain, and too energetic, and too often right, to be banished to some provincial university to teach Byzantine military history to the children of accountants and dentists. Better to keep him in Chevy Chase, and give him contracts to chase after narco-terrorists or to study Chinese expansionism to his heart’s content until he suffered a heart attack."
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/three-blind-kings-edward-luttwak
32. "One thing that the collapse of the global supply chain has taught is that the world cannot run on SAAS and software alone. It’s time to get real. That means a world where capital and talent get on their bikes and start making hard stuff."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/time-to-get-real
33. "In a recent analysis, the economics team at Goldman Sachs takes a similar view: “We are not particularly concerned about [a financial crisis] or more broadly about major financial imbalances that would need to slowly unwind in a recession because private sector balance sheets remain robust.”
Nor is GS worried that inflation and inflation expectations will stay stubbornly persistent amid rising unemployment, thus delaying monetary easing. GS: “In short, our best guess is that a recession caused by moderate overtightening would be shallow, though we could imagine it dragging on for a little longer than it would with more policy support” such as a large fiscal stimulus, which GS sees as unlikely given the probability of divided government after the upcoming midterm elections."
https://fasterplease.substack.com/p/-heres-what-the-likely-upcoming-us
34. "The Ukrainians have definitely bought us some time to think about all this. If Kyiv had really fallen at the end of February of this year, this would have been a very dark spring for democracies. If an extreme right-wing regime in Russia managed to destroy democracy in Ukraine that would have had effects for everyone.
Conversely, if Ukraine, despite people’s expectations, manages to hold this off, that will be a great boon to democracy. Because I think it either goes one way or the other. I don’t think there’s such a thing as stasis. So the Ukrainians have given us a chance to think. We need to realize that what the Ukrainians are doing is a very compressed example of the kind of courage that you actually need to keep a democracy going."
https://www.vox.com/2022/6/21/23165718/vox-conversations-ukraine-russia-timothy-snyder-democracy
35. I really enjoy this podcast. Glad it's back.
I disagree with much of their assessment on Ukraine. But they are right that EU/USA have been incompetent in managing their energy & pushing the sanctions & helping Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bh6-PXMdmPk
36. Even though we are in Crypto winter, this is a great & relevant discussion covering parallels of Crypto Renaissance to the old Renaissance.
Excellent analogy and still bullish on the future of Crypto as the grifters, mercenaries and crooks are washed away in this downturn.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=karddOiv4ZA
37. Slava Ukraini!
"Here’s what gives me hope — of the rational, constructive kind. Ukraine has reached the tipping point of having enough well-qualified and extremely motivated people: from President’s Office, to the Military, to Diplomatic Corps, to academics, to common citizens. These are the people of skill, the kind who tilt the odds of history’s poker in favor of Ukraine."
38. "Podcasting is also a more convenient medium than any visual format. It doesn’t require our full attention, so more of our day is available to podcasters. It’s not as easy to organize or sift through as print, but it’s far easier to access than video. We may be in a golden age of television, but the average household spends more than 7 minutes a day deciding what to watch on their streaming platforms.
If someone recommends a TV show, we must find out what platform it’s on, locate the app, track down the password, and then have an uninterrupted hour of screen time. In contrast, a podcast is always a few clicks away. Ease of discovery enables the proliferation of new voices."
https://www.profgalloway.com/all-ears
39. "But the concept of a beacon is not limited to purely physical signaling points. There are beacons on the web – they are people, companies, networks, blogs, podcasts, YouTube channels; anything that can direct attention to something of importance.
You must become a beacon or you are essentially at the whim of others who point attention at their discretion, perhaps shining the light on you for fleeting moments…if you’re lucky. Far better to become an arbiter of attention in your industry or niche rather than forfeit this advantage to others."
https://adamsinger.substack.com/p/become-a-beacon-or-risk-being-lost
40. Network effects go both ways. The rise and decline of Axie Infinity. Still early days for the Play to Earn pioneer though and they do have alot of cash still.
https://restofworld.org/2022/axie-infinity-hack
41. Fascinating.
"There’s no mention of it in the guide books, but the farms we passed play a central role in the global financial system. They are the source of a massive pool of savings that gets deployed right around the world. Japanese real estate, US subprime, private equity buyouts – all markets that have been financed from this pool. And sitting on top of it, commanding those flows, is a single financial institution: Norinchukin Bank."