Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads June 11th, 2023
“The people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world are the ones who do.” – Steve Jobs.
"Nationality is not something most people choose; it’s a status or a barrier thrust on us by birthplace or heritage. Cities, though, are places—and identities—that we choose for ourselves.
And when we feel enough of a connection to stay somewhere, perhaps cities can choose us too. But with the freedom to live and work from anywhere, how do you navigate choosing—or staying long enough for a place to choose you?"
https://globalnatives.substack.com/p/where-are-you-from
2. History is amazing. Thread on the fall of Constantinople.
https://twitter.com/Varangian_Tagma/status/1663183116981207040
3. So many nuggets of wisdom here. Seth Godin is the GOAT.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HekHk6yLmF0
4. Old write up but still bullish on Uzbekistan.
"E.g., if you want to make 10, 20 or 50 times your money or achieve an outsized dividend yield that you just couldn't achieve in more mature markets, these so-called "frontier markets" are a place that you should pay attention to.
In case you haven't got a clue what's been happening in Uzbekistan over the past two years, you are not alone.
The Chinese, the Russians and the South Koreans are already significant investors in the country. Foreign direct investment is growing rapidly, but Western countries generally have not been paying much attention to this corner of the world. Nor have there been overly many journalists visiting the country to report about its economy and businesses.
Uzbekistan lies at the center of the region known as Central Asia, which also comprises Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan.
Historically, these were the countries that made up the fabled Silk Road, i.e., the trading route that first connected Europe to Asia."
5. "Anyone who has been to Istanbul will understand what I mean by the country's great entrepreneurial spirit. It's a buzzing, booming, modern city – with much of its economy running on euros and dollars. When I last visited in June 2022, I concluded (to my own surprise) that I'd be happy to spend more time there (which, sadly, is not something I'd say about quite a few Western European capitals anymore).
With all that wrapped together, the Turkish stock market is a market that I am rather interested in. Something that is cheap, opaque and a bit unpopular generally piques my interest."
https://www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispatches/turkey-taking-stock-in-times-of-change/
6. Good primer on credit card churning. ie. using points for flights, hotels and excursions.
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/guest-post-on-credit-card-churning
7. "Anyone that’s ever dealt with ballooning debt understands the ramifications. At a certain point, you lose the ability to manage both the debt and interest payments regardless of how much your salary increases. In this case salary can be substituted for tax receipts. At some point, all you’re really doing is making interest payments. For an individual, that can be crushing for quality of life. For a nation, that likely means all types of problems down the road.
Now combine the realities of expanding Debt to GDP trends with some of the other trends we’ve seen lately.
Inflation and resulting contraction of the middle class purchasing power and quality of life. The financial warfare of the West vs Russia that in many ways ushered in a time of mutlipolarism with many nation-states finding ways to strengthen alternative global partnerships while diversifying foreign currency reserves. And of course, the massive accumulation of gold reserves of central banks around the world.
The writing is on the wall for anyone willing to pull their heads out of the sand and look."
https://www.thesovereignindividualweekly.com/p/weve-entered-doom-loop
8. Fascinating thread on the Venetian empire.
https://twitter.com/byzantinemporia/status/1663916403433381890
9. "Germany looks increasingly willing to cut Chinese companies in the semiconductor supply chain off from important materials and components. For China’s optics industry, and by extension its efforts at developing advanced photolithography, this could present a major roadblock going forward."
https://thechinaproject.com/2023/05/01/chinas-semiconductor-industry-cant-quit-german-optics/
10. "Drone Lab is not the only IT company in Ukraine working on developing innovative military technology.
Before the war, Ukraine’s IT companies were transforming the country into an emerging digital leader. Now, these companies are also transforming Ukraine into a military innovator.
Traditional military production follows the waterfall approach. In the waterfall method, the entire set of requirements for a solution must be identified before building the product, and testing only occurs once the product is entirely constructed.
Startups opt for the agile approach, prioritizing the most critical requirements and tackling problems as they arise.
For Ukraine, time is of the essence. Solutions must come fast, and testing new products during combat offers an opportunity to enhance essential features and functionality in real-life situations.
“This is why startups are winning,” Vasylieva said."
https://kyivindependent.com/fighting-smarter-ukraines-transformation-into-military-innovator/
11. Talk about very creative re-tooling.
"According to Reuters, Ukraine is specifically asking for Mk 20 Rockeye II cluster bombs. Also known as CBU-100, Ukraine’s reported plan for the weapons would not involve dropping them from combat aircraft. Instead, they would take the Mk 20s apart and their submunitions would be adapted into bomblets that will be dropped by lower-end drones."
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-wants-u-s-cluster-bombs-but-not-for-what-you-think
12. This seems to be endemic to tech world last decade or so. It has been a hard wake up call for many this last year.
"Toni says that, while Lecha has taken much of the blame for the change to the company’s culture, the roots of the problem began with Typeform’s generous perks in the early days.
“With the unlimited holiday about a third of people were taking the piss and weren't really being held accountable,” she says. “A lot of the toxicity in my opinion comes from the fact that there were all these nice things thrown at people with not much accountability at the beginning. People became really entitled.”
https://sifted.eu/articles/us-hustle-mentality-typeform-spain
13. Pretty scary stuff. USA is very much at threat by our enemies. Power Grid blackouts are a real risk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cibrirsq5Gc&t=374s
14. "I argued a while back, that, seeing how the Ukrainians had waged war before, that there would be such attacks the closer they came to the counteroffensive. They would not want to do such attacks too early (giving Russia time to recover) and they would not want to do them right at the start of the counteroffensive, because they would want forces at the front to struggle a little with supplies before attacking.
However a sustained campaign of this type would indicate the counteroffensive is approaching."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/the-ukrainian-counteroffensive-getting
15. Highly recommend Capital Camp if you are an investor. Been there last 3 years in a row. Good write up about it here.
https://chrisneumann.com/blog/dont-forget-the-big-picture
16. I enjoyed this interview more than I expected. Rob Lipsett seems like a cool dude living his best life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaWX55EVHA4
17. "But we don't achieve true, unadulterated freedom until we graduate from college. Armed with a sheet of paper that shows that we are employable, we emerge from our alma maters with a world of opportunity before us.
No longer living at home. No longer constrained by class schedules. We can, for the first time, literally do anything that we want.
And then this peculiar thing happens. We don't do whatever we want.
After spending 22 years preparing for this moment of unbounded freedom, we spend the next 40 years squandering this freedom making money that we don't need to buy stuff that we don't want to impress people that we don't care about to maybe, if we are lucky, spend our excess cash in retirement when it is least valuable to us because of our limited energy."
https://www.youngmoney.co/p/case-traveling
18. "In other words, much of what made China’s economy special during its glorious decades was due to its unusual real estate system. Now that era is ending, and China is going to have to start looking much more like a normal developed country. If it fails to make that transition, difficult times could lie ahead."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/real-estate-is-chinas-economic-achilles
19. "For once, Turkish stocks are very difficult to access. With the exception of some foreign-listed Turkish stocks, investors need to open a local brokerage account, which makes it difficult but also potentially interesting. Once it becomes easier to trade Turkish stocks – which it will at some point, e.g. thanks to trading apps such as Piapiri eventually opening to foreign users – the market could see additional investment flow into some of these names.
Valuations are an issue, though. Some Turkish stocks are cheap, but are they cheap enough?
At a time when many stocks listed on Western exchanges are trading for p/e ratios of 3-6 (banks, energy, and other Old Economy sectors), is it worth going the extra mile to invest in Turkey?"
https://www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispatches/turkey-investor-trip-what-we-learned/
20. "No, to love a problem like that is to meet it with dozens, hundreds or even thousands of solutions. To recognize that perfection is impossible. To love a problem like that is to face frustration and closing walls, to meet rejection and rough compromises.
But perhaps—just perhaps!—through the humble process of asking and attempting and asking and attempting and asking and attempting—we take the tiniest of steps forward. We make progress. We make something of ourselves.
Love the problem, and in its swirling abyss, find the reward."
https://lg.substack.com/p/the-looking-glass-love-the-problem
21. "The Overall Defence Concept embraces an asymmetric approach to defence strategy. Wisely, the Overall Defence Concept doesn’t seek a symmetrical, head-to-head competition with the much larger PLA.
Instead, the resources available for Taiwan to ensure its defence are prioritised on targeting high value targets, denying a Chinese landing and ensuing the survival of the Taiwanese military – and the nation itself - until intervention by the United States, Japan or other countries begins.
It does not do this by completely ridding the armed forces of Taiwan of warships, combat brigades or fighters. However, it does readjust the balance of national investment in these conventional capabilities with increased procurement of weapon systems and munitions that permit an indirect approach to attacking any PLA invasion force.
While the Overall Defence Concept pre-dates the Ukrainian defence against Russia, many of its key proposals have been validated by the Ukrainian strategy of corrosion that has been executed over the past 16 months.
Not only does it offer a model for the most effective and efficient use of Taiwanese defence resources in peace and war, but it also offers a framework for other nations in the region to potentially emulate."
https://mickryan.substack.com/p/the-overall-defence-concept
22. A good thread for those interested in the 5 Flag strategy.
https://twitter.com/StirlingWisdom/status/1664616165031698433
23. Brave men.
"In Taiwan, he was in the coffee industry and military reserves.
After Russia invaded Ukraine, Yao Kuan-chun volunteered to go fight.
He has been on the ground in Ukraine the past three months, one of a handful of Taiwanese soldiers who have joined other international fighters in the war that started in February 2022.
Yao, 30, knows the threat of invasion from a bigger authoritarian neighbor – China – and is fighting for the larger causes of democracy and freedom.
But he’s also getting first-hand combat experience in case China decides to invade his island.
"Tensions have escalated (across the Taiwan Strait), so we need to pick up the pace if we're to be ready. Whether or not they dare to invade depends on our preparedness,” Yao said.
“Who's going to come to your rescue if you don't defend your own country?"
"There's a saying that goes, 'Today, Hong Kong, tomorrow, Taiwan'," he said, referring to fears that the erosion of Hong Kong’s freedoms could be repeated in Taiwan should it come under Chinese rule.
"Or you could say, ‘Today, Ukraine, tomorrow, Taiwan,’" he said."
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/taiwan-soldiers-ukraine-05302023144044.html
24. "young people’s time spent outside of the house is a forward-looking indicator of their success.
For most uber-successful people, however, online activity is leverage for relationships and achievements established in person. The only way you will be loved by others, get to love them, and live a life you do not deserve is to take uncomfortable risks.
Today the risks are mundane but offer greater returns. Say yes, go to the second place, and be promiscuous when it comes to expressing your regard, interest, and love for others. You will experience disappointment, sore muscles, hangovers, and awkward moments. And looking back, you will regret none of it. Say yes."
https://www.profgalloway.com/yes/
25. "YPF went from public to private and back, and in the middle of these shenanigans a small group of insiders made bank.
Today, YPF is worth $4.418 billion dollars, which makes Argentina’s 51% worth $2.253 billion dollars.
For that 51% Argentina will have to pay $20 billion for having expropriated it, little over 9 times more, not counting the fact that Grupo Petersen was able to get their 25%+ thanks to public funds stalled in Switzerland in the first place, which are no longer accounted for as we’ve seen above.
Even though it is clear who were involved in this laundromat of epic scale, and there’s little doubt about the irregularity of the financial loophole in transactions and ownership, it is almost certain that no one will end up in jail or even prosecuted for receiving YPF bags of at least $20 billion+ in FU money at the tax payer’s expense."
https://bowtiedmara.substack.com/p/ypf-the-laundromat-of-the-century
26. I think this is a great thing and inspiration for men everywhere. It's absolutely wonderful that people work on themselves and stay in shape. Don't get this snarky article.
"It’s not just Zuck and Bezos getting swole. We are in “the era of the buff mogul”, the New York Post declared last year. “Ripped abs are the new power trip for CEOs,” El País has stated. “Billionaires these days are buff,” the Guardian recently observed. The size of your biceps has become as much a status symbol these days as the size of your bank balance.
There are numerous reasons for this, including the tech world’s obsession with biohacking and treating the human body like it’s a machine that can be optimized."
27. For anyone who thought the American Indians were push overs or peaceful. This documentary puts that lie to pass.
The vicious wars of extermination between the Comanche & Apache tribes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSYN7GF_ll0
28. Russia reaps what it sows. I expect there will be more of these attacks soon. Slava Ukraini!
https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/05/politics/ukraine-sabotage-agents-russia-drone-attacks/index.html
29. "First, a short description of what AI is: The application of mathematics and software code to teach computers how to understand, synthesize, and generate knowledge in ways similar to how people do it. AI is a computer program like any other – it runs, takes input, processes, and generates output. AI’s output is useful across a wide range of fields, ranging from coding to medicine to law to the creative arts. It is owned by people and controlled by people, like any other technology.
A shorter description of what AI isn’t: Killer software and robots that will spring to life and decide to murder the human race or otherwise ruin everything, like you see in the movies.
An even shorter description of what AI could be: A way to make everything we care about better."
https://a16z.com/2023/06/06/ai-will-save-the-world
30. "Throughout all of this chaos, tensions with Russia, China, and Iran are on the rise… while the US military is being weakened by woke politics, fiscal mismanagement, and terrible leadership.
It seems like every few days there’s another major embarrassment… from a guy who never met a staircase he can’t fall up, to the humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan, to a major crisis in the US banking system, to ‘mostly peaceful’ protests, to the debt ceiling soap opera.
And every one of these emboldens America’s adversaries.
Many of us are old enough to remember a time when such things were unthinkable, when America’s reputation for strength was unquestionable.
But these days, a major, national humiliation is just another Tuesday afternoon in the Land of the Free."
31. "Here’s the hard truth about experience as well. Some people just have better experience than others. If you worked for a company from seed to IPO, you’ve got a better story to tell than someone who hasn’t seen an exit yet. If you’re a partner, you can generally speak more to what your firm looks for than if you’re the associate.
If someone is trying hard to learn about the fundraising market, not just “any” investor will do. You ideally want someone who has seen a couple of cycles and has some sway in their own firm."
https://ceonyc.substack.com/p/why-most-startup-events-suck-for
32. Slava Ukraini!
"As to what happens next, even seasoned pundits are kept guessing. For my part, I would expect more Ukrainian attacks intended to shape the battlefield – causing the Russians to divert resources and even commit their reserves. This they have already partially done, moving several VDV (Airborne) units, which were part of their operational reserve, to Bakhmut in the last few days.
If pushed to guess, I would say that the Ukrainains have decided to strike decisively in Donbas first with Bakhmut being their primary objective, before launching an attack to breach Russian positions in Melitipol or even Mariupol."