Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads June 2nd, 2024
“Nobody can bring you peace but yourself.” —Ralph Waldo Emerson
This is a good rundown of what’s happening economically in various countries in the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQ4fWdjWLiE
2. "Too often, entrepreneurs try to sign free “customers” in an effort to get the product used, and that usually doesn’t work. It’s much better to have the customers pay at least something so that they’re bought in and provide honest feedback. As an entrepreneur in the early days, it’s easy to get caught up in fundraising and selling a vision. But the first huge milestone is signing up 10 unaffiliated customers who love the product. It sounds simple, but it’s incredibly difficult."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/05/04/0-to-10-unaffiliated-customers-as-1st-major-milestone/
3. "Ukraine is facing increasingly tough odds in its defensive war against a better-resourced, better-equipped enemy. Thanks to delayed aid from Washington and shortages in other NATO warehouses, Ukraine has lacked artillery shells, long-range missiles, and even air defense munitions.
These drones, however, represent a bright spot for the Ukrainians. Entrepreneurship and innovation is scaling up a sizable drone industry in the country, and it’s making new technological leaps that would make the Pentagon envious.
The age of drone warfare is here, and Ukraine wants to be a superpower."
https://www.wired.com/story/ukraine-drone-startups-russia/
4. A man who give's no F--ks and willing to put money where his mouth is. Crazy good investor too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5AuzAV2KVFk
5. So many great insights here for investing and growing startups.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=04k2fFdZPmE
6. Always learn from these talks. Rabois is a top investor and operator.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s8zgNDIUW-w
7. Loved this conversation. Marc and Ben discussing all things startups and tech.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fw4p85jSfQc&t=1334s
8. Good global geopolitical discussion. If you want peace, prepare for war.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-H8ttoQQd7c
9. Watching this makes me miss Japan even more. Adventures in Kyoto and Osaka.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sveCiXo8aak
10. "A hyped venture space only exists after the winning company in that space has already been created, discovered, funded, and become popular. The very existence of the space proves the search for a winning investment is already over. This is the reality of venture investing, and the herd behavior operating in open defiance of this reality is necessarily limiting fund returns while denying capital to promising companies simply because they aren’t on trend.
Instead of hype cycle investing VCs should bet on founders, not sectors. That necessarily means rejecting hype-driven consensus. Generating substantial venture returns requires breaking from the herd and betting on companies that launch, not follow, hype cycles.
Instead of evaluating pitches on a relative standard — “How does this particular AI start-up compare to all the other AI start-ups?” — VCs should use an absolute standard. Relative wins are effectively irrelevant to the returns of any large fund. The real question to ask is: “Could this company become a category-creating monopoly? Could it come out on top of the power law?” Because those are the only companies that matter."
https://www.piratewires.com/p/venture-capital-space-for-sheep
11. A masterclass on social media marketing and how to build a business there. Gary Vee has been on top since 2006.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2seNzdajZA4
12. "Remember, three things: 1) You won the lottery of being born in the greatest country on earth; 2) No one can take away the wealth of knowledge you acquire throughout your life; and 3) You can choose what mountain you climb.
And so, even though my parents and I had no money to our name, we were wealthy beyond belief. Because, kids, “wealth” is all about how you define it. To me, wealth is not your job title. It’s not your social status. It’s not how much cash you have in your bank account.
Wealth is the knowledge that you can bet on yourself time and time again to figure it out. You’ll fall, you’ll get up again, and you’ll keep climbing. That’s OK. That will happen no matter which mountain you choose to climb. Just make sure that you set your sights on one whose peak feels worth it, no matter how challenging the path."
https://www.thewealthletters.com/p/035-the-wealthy-immigrant
13. Invaluable discussion on the art of venture capital.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uaFTiKQ5vS4
14. Japan getting closer to the West. This is a good thing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_Nv_CoR7zA
15. Lots of insights here on the venture capital industry from one of the most experienced investors in the business (29 years at NEA).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onyAulOLUU8
16. This new show looks awesome.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-tnz-GulxY
17. Great discussion on how to build an audience and media-driven business empire.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVGYxhIrVAE&t=2014s
18. "For now, the three best ways to extend your life remain boring: eating a healthy diet, exercising regularly, and sleeping well. We aren’t going to add decades to human life any time soon; living to 150 or 200 remains in the realm of science fiction. But in decades to come, advancements in the science of aging may still lead to therapeutic breakthroughs that lengthen human healthspan — the period of life spent in good health. Perhaps a few more people will become centenarians, but the real success would be having more years when you can live well."
https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/24121932/anti-aging-longevity-science-health-drugs
19. "The notion of an invincible Red Army is propaganda. The Red Army was formidable, but it was also beatable. Of its three most consequential foreign wars, the Red Army lost two.
It was defeated by Poland in 1920. It defeated Nazi Germany in 1945, after nearly collapsing in 1941. (Its win in that instance was part of a larger coalition and with decisive American economic assistance.) Soviet forces were in trouble in Afghanistan immediately after their 1979 invasion and had to withdraw a decade later.
And the Russian army of today is not the Red Army. Russia is not the USSR. Soviet Ukraine was a source of resources and soldiers for the Red Army. In that victory of 1945, Ukrainian soldiers in the Red Army took huge losses — greater than American, British and French losses combined. It was disproportionately Ukrainians who fought their war to Berlin in the uniform of the Red Army."
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/05/08/opinions/victory-day-russia-war-ukraine-snyder
20. I hope VCs pay attention to this.
https://chrisneumann.com/archives/the-beginner-vcs-guide-to-not-being-a-jerk
21. A little bit tin-foil hat but this was a good discussion on geopolitics that goes counter to predominant narrative. Net net: guns, gold, land and energy are good investments.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBKtL1vtfd4
22. "Starbucks used to be a “Third Place” that was a community hub where people could hang out. The interiors were nice and baristas interacted with their customers. The transition to mobile orders and grab ‘n go meant that store ambience mattered less. Customers cared about “how fast can I get out?” vs. “how long can I enjoy my time here?”.
Somewhat ironically, everyone rushing to mobile orders for convenience creates long wait times. This added volume turns the work of a barista from that of a quasi-artisan into a McDonald’s-like assembly line worker. Even as the product commoditized and independent coffee shops offered the old Starbucks vibe, the current Starbucks keeps charging premium prices. Sir, I need caffeine in my dome immediately. Why am I paying $6 for a Grande Iced Coffee that I have to wait 13 minutes to get when I could grab a Red Bull from 7-11 in 2 seconds?
Further, product innovation is no longer about improving the coffee but dreaming up ridiculous new drinks that look nice on the App and appeal to younger demos on social."
https://www.readtrung.com/p/starbucks-digital-dilemna
23. "If the U.S. and Europe get what they want—a crackdown on Chinese imports—it doesn’t feel like it would result in better cars. It feels like it would keep buyers of those markets locked to cars that aren’t executed as well. It’s nakedly protectionist because deep down, all of the Western auto executives and some hawkish China pundits understand that Chinese EV and PHEV models are more compelling than what European, other Asian, and American brands have come up with.
I’ve seen it with my own two eyes. We’re cooked."
https://insideevs.com/features/719015/china-is-ahead-of-west/
24. "Ukraine has the support of democracies spanning North America, Europe and the Indo-Pacific — countries committed to sustaining Kyiv’s independence and punishing Putin severely in the process. Yet that support is being matched and blunted by a cohort of Eurasian autocracies lending vital aid to Moscow and making life more difficult for the West. Two vast alliances are squaring off, albeit indirectly, on European battlegrounds. The fight in Ukraine has become the first global conflict of a new cold war."
What happens in one theater of an interconnected world cannot fail to affect others. Right now, Ukraine is where the clash between advanced democracies and Eurasian autocracies is most severe: America and its allies won’t prosper if they end up losing there.
Yet it is also worth remembering that victory in a proxy fight can occur on two levels. It is a question of who wins the shooting war. But it is also a question of which coalition better uses that conflict, by learning the relevant military lessons, strengthening the ties among its members and using this war to generate the urgency and capabilities needed to get ready for what comes next. In many ways, then, events in Ukraine will shape the future. Ukraine’s war has become the world’s war, too."
25. "That said, our best proxy is the last 30 years to make some conclusions related to your portfolio allocation and income earning strategies.
Income: We know that low-wage and mid-wage work is not going to beat money printing and asset prices. This is the message. This means you want to get the highest earning position you can get and simply do the minmum as you build equity. This has been stated on this side of the web for over a decade but now you can see it in clear numbers. Your income will erode by 50% over a 30 year frame. Even if you get those promotions etc. The high paying slots you get are not keeping up with purchasing power.
The only winner is someone using their time to build equity/assets. No one should trade their time for money unless it is a one off for fun or they are doing the minimum to pay bills.
Assets: Depending on how old you are, it is now possible to figure out what to do with all of your money. Outside of emergency funds and some 401K match stuff (guaranteed 100% returns) it is actually extremely easy to figure out
Home: This is a proxy for keeping pace with inflation/prices. Assuming you are confident the area is good for the future, it means that your house is just going to represent flat purchasing power. In 30 years the house is going to keep up with the crazy changes in the world. Both up and down. Down years it is worth less but that’s during a recession. Up years it is worth more, that is during massive *asset* price inflation. In the end it largely just tracks purchasing power (good to know!)
Tech/New Growth: Tech is largely just the top 10-20 companies + crypto and roller coaster VC projects. Any money
you put in here must be untouchable. You are going to see -80% years and +100% years. The trick is making sure you have absolutely no emotions about it. Largely not a problem for our readers who aren’t particularly emotional.
S&P 500: Essentially a worse version of being long-tech. The real benefit is you don’t have to see your net worth go up and down as much. If you have an emergency better to sell this than sell the Tech stocks because it will be down *less* than tech in a mega downturn.
Apply The 4x Rule: No one knows where taxes are going, social security adjustments, health care, oil/electricity, food etc. We’re sure some of this stuff will be up more than others in 30 years. Instead we can just use the new 4x rule.
As of 2024 assume that everything will be 4x in 2054.
Home? If you want a $1,000,000 home today assume it will be $4,000,000 in 2054.
Income? If you want to spend $10,000 a month assume you will need $40,000 a month in 2054.
Assets? If you are smart and are long stocks/crypto/tech etc. Assume that if you have $100,000 today, it’ll be worth around $500,000-$1,000,000 in 2054 (being conservative with future returns taxes etc.)"
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/making-inflation-a-non-event-for
26. "The United States has been the world’s dominant superpower for decades. But like Rome in the later stage of its empire, the US is clearly in decline. This should not be a controversial statement.
Let’s not be dramatic; it’s important to stay focused on facts and reality. The US economy is still vast and potent, and the country is blessed with an abundance of natural resources– incredibly fertile farmland, some of the world’s largest freshwater resources, and incalculable reserves of energy and other key commodities.
In fact, it’s amazing the people in charge have managed to screw it up so badly. And yet they have.
The national debt is out of control, rising by trillions of dollars each year. Debt growth, in fact, substantially outpaces US economic growth.
Social Security is insolvent, and the program’s own trustees (including the US Treasury Secretary) admit that its major trust fund will run out of money in just nine years.
The people in charge never seem to miss an opportunity to dismantle capitalism (i.e. the economic system that created so much prosperity to begin with) brick by brick.
Then there are ubiquitous social crises: public prosecutors who refuse to enforce the law; the weaponization of the justice system; the southern border fiasco; declining birth rates; extraordinary social divisions that are most recently evidenced by the anti-Israel protests.
And most of all the US constantly shows off its incredibly dysfunctional government that can’t manage to agree on anything, from the budget to the debt ceiling. The President has obvious cognitive disabilities and makes the most bizarre decisions to enrich America’s enemies.
Are these problems fixable? Yes. Will they be fixed? Maybe. But as we used to say in the military, “hope is not a course of action”.
Plotting this current trajectory to its natural conclusion leads me to believe that the world will enter a new “barbarian kingdom” paradigm in which there is no dominant superpower.
Certainly, there are a number of rising rivals today. But no one is powerful enough to assume the leading role in the world."
27. This was such a great discussion. Two of the best podcast interviewers in the business. Chris Williamson and Tim Ferriss.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9G5dXlMGMf8&t=4306s
28. Always learn new things from Zeihan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYp1Ktbz-B4&t=2245s
29. Why Taiwan matters.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vnd0uNUQqQ0
30. This week’s episode was excellent. NIA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0C7tBFxZ0g&t=2996s
31. "Forbes doesn’t seem to have called him a billionaire since the SPAC frenzy in 2021. It seems highly unlikely that he is one. (To be sure, Palihapitiya is almost still certainly very wealthy by any normal standard. And his challenges may mostly amount to liquidity problems given that much of his wealth is tied up in private investments.)
Palihapitiya has openly discussed his belt-tightening on the All-In Podcast.
In January 2023, he talked about looking at his household spending. “I haven’t really looked at my household budget in 2 or 3 years — didn’t even bother. Then when I looked at it, I was like wow this is really inflated to a level I didn’t even expect. It makes a lot of sense to live in a more heads down, austere way.”
In his latest investor letter published this week, Palihapitiya wrote, “While 2023 was full of challenges, we are near the end of the hard reset from zero interest rates. After a decade of low rates and rising valuations, many of the tailwinds that benefited us as technologists are now gone. Instead, disruptive change via advancements in AI and reshoring of critical industries are reshaping how companies are built.”
https://www.newcomer.co/p/the-dictator-chamath-palihapitiyas
32. In general seems like a good list for sober rational men.
https://lifemathmoney.com/how-to-be-happy-at-all-times
33. "Putin doesn’t need to take Kyiv to declare victory – he just needs to seize the rest of Donbas and hold on to what he has. At stake now is not Ukraine’s territorial integrity, but its survival. Slowing Russian forces in the Donbas will be critical now to this outcome."
https://amilburn.substack.com/p/fighting-for-time
34. This is such a great interview with two emerging business leaders. Nick Huber and Sieva Kosinsky.