Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads March 16th, 2025
"April prepares her green traffic light, and the world thinks: Go." —Christopher Morley
Topical discussions on what is happening in Silicon Valley. The wise Naval is the guest.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AI5qI6ej-yM
2. Lots of great insights on where the world of technology & business is going. Useful for investors and workers to understand where the puck is moving to.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nt7ckZDTtis&t=1903s
3. "Round-two entrepreneurs are some of my favorite types of entrepreneurs to work with. After years of effort that didn’t result in success, they still want to pursue the entrepreneurial journey again. That resilience separates casual entrepreneurs from those who are truly committed.
Failure is normal and often the most common outcome. But just because you’ve been knocked down doesn’t mean you can’t get back up. Round-two entrepreneurs step back into the arena with a newfound perspective—and a little extra spring in their step."
https://davidcummings.org/2025/02/15/round-two-entrepreneurs/
4. "If these accusations get anywhere is anyone’s guess —if Argentina’s past is any indicator, my bet would be that this won’t having any implications for Milei’s presidency locally, just like with so many politicians before him—, but they will be an unnecessary additional distraction next to more crucial topics like Argentina’s economy and Milei’s political success in the October elections.
The more important damage is that to Milei’s image abroad, since most people outside of Argentina were probably not aware of his previous endorsement or simply forgot about it because the chainsaw was roaring with such great success. The fact that nobody on the Milei team thought about the potential consequences of his actions or simply didn’t care, is worrying to say the least.
His political team will have to think long and hard on how to avoid these things from happening in the future, and Milei would do well to focus solely on the matters at hand, which is the October elections and the Argentine economy."
https://www.bowtiedmara.io/p/libra-imbalanced-confidence
5. "To end on a positive note, there was one silver lining that I saw: Europe seems to be waking up - albeit very slowly. J.D. Vance’s speech, for all its flaws, may have served a purpose: It forced Europeans to confront an uncomfortable reality.
If the U.S. isn’t coming to the rescue, Europe has no choice but to take responsibility for itself.
The question is: Will there be enough time before the storm arrives?"
https://stationzero.substack.com/p/a-storm-is-coming-what-i-saw-at-the
6. "To be clear, I don’t quite agree with the idea that the elites have totally abandoned ‘shaping the world’ in exchange for merely maintaining the status quo—at least not directly and intentionally. Rather the process transitioned toward this emergently due to the elites’ inability to harness the unpredictable fluxes they had unleashed with their monetary and social engineering leviathans, particularly of the ‘Nixon shock’ era and Bretton Woods annulment.
The distinction is this Potemkin existence is essentially a de facto rather than de jure system. It’s a tail that wags the dog because the system’s main imposed characteristics are designed more to reactively stave off collapse, rather than proactively re-engineer society into an altruist’s vision of the future. Again, the distinction comes from the inherent urgency of the demands for this change: the elites have no way of stopping their system’s slow-mo demise, and instead resort to perception control to buy time."
https://darkfutura.substack.com/p/hypernormalization
7. "In contrast, the standout new dynamics - and reason for my MAGAnomics worries - is a significant drop in Japanese exports to the Global South. This is were head-to-head competition against Made-in-China has intensified, were Japan has been loosing ground, and is poised to loose further market share and profitability if Trump’s policies raise further the costs for China to do business in (or with) America.
China’s manufacturing capability and capacity have grown and evolved consistently. China is now a perfectly viable global competitor to Made-in-Japan. Famously, China surpassed Japan as the world’s number one car exporter; and the breadth of head-to-head competition against China is growing rapidly: first, it was textiles and toys; then the Shinkansen bullet train and electronics; last year, cars; and next up — machinery and capital goods: already China’s exports of industrial robots have more than doubled in the last five years while Japan’s are down 12%. A similar story in construction and mining machinery, up almost 3-fold for China, down over 10% for Japan (same five years).
Clear-speak: Trump’s America is frightening, yes it needs to scare the world to survive at home; but it thereby empowers global leaders. After decades of “Japan should play a greater part in the U.S.-Japan alliance” Trump’s America puts an end to diplomatic niceties and leaves Japan’s elite with no choice. They now will become more independent, more self-sufficient, more aggressive, assertive, and more focused on self-centered material results. The “free ride” is over — which fuels both the local corporate- and political metabolism."
https://japanoptimist.substack.com/p/maga-worries
8. "TDL;DR: The next generation of AI is imminent, and companies are working feverishly to be at the forefront of it.
The practical result of all this is that an individual will continue to become more capable than ever before. You can use AI to generate fully-coded apps, bring projects to life that once required entire teams, or even push forward on cutting-edge research. The question is which problems we aim all this energy at—and whose vision guides us."
https://every.to/context-window/just-add-vision
9. "But more importantly, I think that from Europe’s vantage point, it mostly doesn’t matter which interpretation of America’s recent words and actions is more accurate.
Whether America really wants to focus on deterring China in Asia, or whether it just wants to retreat from the global stage and focus on bullying Canada, Panama, and its own minorities, that doesn’t change the cold hard fact that America is retreating from its role as the guarantor of European security. And whether or not Trump’s people actually think Russia is a threat to Europe, that doesn’t change the fact that Russia is a threat to Europe. And whether Trump’s people truly care about free speech, that doesn’t change the fact that Europe’s people are angry about recent immigration waves, and if that anger isn’t accommodated through the democratic process, Europe’s stability could be in danger.
In other words, both the challenges that Europe faces, and the fact that the U.S. is not going to help with those challenges, are clear and obvious. Europe must either stand on its own against the threats that face it, or capitulate to those threats.
Fortunately, some of the Europeans may finally be realizing this.
Nor is it fanciful to think that Europe might unite to fight Russia. Even if the U.S. formally withdraws from NATO, or simply refuses to come to its allies’ aid, NATO command can serve as a unified military command for any and all European efforts against Russia. Crucially, NATO also includes Turkey and the UK, who aren’t in the EU, but both of which are rivals of Russia. In fact, without a Trump-led U.S. weighing the alliance down, it could be free to become the pan-European military force that the region needs.
The other danger is that each European country will look after its own narrow interests, throwing the other countries to the wolves. There’s a tendency of each country to view the nations to the east of it as buffer states — a defense-in-depth to hold off the Russians. This is a dangerous fantasy. The more Russia conquers, the more powerful it growth, since it basically enslaves each conquered group into its army to conquer the next group. When the USSR attacked Poland in 1919, it did so with many Ukrainian troops; when it menaced West Europe during the Cold War, it did so with Polish troops. And so on. Europe has to make a stand and put up a hard wall, instead of letting Russia continue to absorb and enslave its people bit by bit.
If the U.S. abandons Ukraine to Russia entirely, as now looks fairly likely, it might make sense for Europe to actively intervene in the war, helping the Ukrainians stop Russia from grabbing any more territory."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/its-time-for-europe-to-stand-up
10. An incredible interview with Palmer Luckey of Oculus Drift and Anduril. I'm glad he is on our side.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bwSycrvcwAs&t=11319s
11. Sober and yet still optimistic view from the Munich Security Conference. Ukraine will be a military industrial giant.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHZT4uk9Cjk
12. "Taiwan has learnt the central tech lesson from the war in Ukraine: the next global conflicts will heavily feature cheap, small drones – and in large numbers.
So as an electronics and hardware component giant – especially relative to its size and diplomatic status – it is trying not only to develop a domestic industry, but also become an arsenal for the free world, building drones and devices for allied militaries worldwide.
The Taiwanese government estimates that the domestic drone industry will produce USD $150 million in drones this year, with goals to increase that eightfold by 2030. Thousands of drones have been ordered by the Ministry of National Defense to boost the domestic supply chain, and millions of dollars in funding have been dedicated to R&D.
And not all of the drones will be aerial. Given the island nation’s deep connections to the ocean, they are pushing to develop technologies in this realm as well.
Another marine science center, located on the southern tip of the Taiwanese main island, is currently being used for the testing of underwater drones."
13. "Imagine American factories no longer crippled by semiconductor shortages. Picture grocery store shelves stocked with affordable food, and fuel prices that don’t drain wallets. That’s the future a negotiated end to the Ukraine war can deliver — and it’s a future where America stands stronger.
The time for endless proxy wars is over. It’s time for a bold, pragmatic strategy that secures American supply chains, strengthens our economy, and restores our global dominance. Ending the war in Ukraine isn’t just good policy; it’s essential for America and the EU’s future."
14. For all SaaS leaders. Pipegen.
https://kellblog.com/2025/02/16/you-cant-eat-pipegen/
15. "Europe has become a third-rate power economically, politically, and militarily, and the price for this slowly building predicament is now due all at once.
I don't summarize the sad state of Europe out of spite or ill will or from a lack of standing. I don't want Europe to become American. But I want Europe to be strong, confident, and successful. Right now it's anything but."
https://world.hey.com/dhh/europe-s-impotent-rage-7edae302
16. "The same principles apply to basically all aspects of life: investing, health, relationships etc. You are playing a game of probabilities. Can’t complain about having bad dating options if you were hitting up E-thots every day and going to house parties with the 50 year old narco.
While you might be the exception to the rule, power lifting and playing football at age 40, the chances are slim that it works out long-term. The data is already out there to steer yourself to flexibility, lower overall weight to avoid injury and a clean diet.
You have to come up with a system for your investing and biz ventures. We could care less about price action for 1-2 years let alone 1-2 months. There are graveyards full of people who sold all their META stock at $40 or all their BTC at $2,000. *Our* strategy is to build stuff that can work for 5-10+ years. If for some reason you have a gift for options trading then honestly go for it, just know you’ll never convince us to go down that route. It isn’t a core competency and would probably cost too much time to learn."
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/general-life-themes-for-the-sentient
17. So many great lessons and ideas for making your life better.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0JfRPXYFQHE&t=949s
18. Snapshot of geopolitics from some ex-CIA officers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jxnug2u7VKg
19. "You can take the shot without being afraid to fail… because in the long run we’re all failures, since none of us are immortal. We are not gods.
Like a girl? Go talk to her.
Hate your boss? Start an online business.
Stressed too much about your work? Care less, build a side hustle.
Health problems? Exercise, eat clean, and do what you can to fix it.
Do what you can do to fix the problem instead of being sad and depressed about it.
If you fail, so what? Try again."
https://lifemathmoney.com/1-year-from-the-death-of-jon-anthony-from-masculine-development-takeaways/
20. It's all about political will here. Europe waking up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JogpD0ZtI-E
21. "Imagine the US as a colossal investment management firm (America Capital Partners) operating in—and controlling access to—the world's most successful business ecosystem. This ecosystem is so dynamic that it constantly runs hot: American consumers and businesses, empowered by innovation and high productivity, generate demand that constantly exceeds domestic supply, creating persistent trade deficits.
These deficits aren't a bug but a feature: they reflect the ecosystem's dynamism and purchasing power, which in turn makes it so attractive to foreign investors. And it’s this very vibrancy that enables America Capital Partners to attract such a large volume of Assets Under Management (AUM).
The mechanics are elegant: when Americans buy more than they sell abroad, they export dollars. Those foreign sellers, enriched by American consumption, then face a crucial choice about what to do with these dollars. Given America's unmatched investment opportunities, sophisticated financial markets, and strong property rights, they typically choose to reinvest right back into the American ecosystem."
https://www.driftsignal.com/p/will-trump-and-musk-break-the-greatest
22. "Europe simply can't have it both ways. Be weak militarily, utterly dependent on an American security guarantee, and also expect a seat at the big-cat table. These positions are incompatible. You either get your peace dividend -- and the freedom to squander it on net-zero nonsense -- or you get to have a say in how the world around you is organized.
Which brings us back to Trump doing Europe a favor. For all his bluster and bullying, America is still a benign force in its relation to Europe. We're being punked by someone from our own alliance. That's a cheap way of learning the lesson that weakness, impotence, and peace-dividend thinking is a short-term strategy. Russia could teach Europe a far more costly lesson. So too China.
All that to say is that Europe must heed the rude awakening from our cowboy friends across the Atlantic. They may be crude, they may be curt, but by golly, they do have a point.
Get jacked, Europe, and you'll no longer get punked. Stay feeble, Europe, and the indignities won't stop with being snubbed in Saudi Arabia."
https://world.hey.com/dhh/europe-must-become-dangerous-again-13413d78
23. "So yes, Americans are buckling up for not so much a World War or an Empire, but rather a new world order where managed conflicts are the order of the day. It is, given that we are dealing with Trump, driven by fast transactions often with huge monetary incentives, but underneath all these pieces is a defensive strategy for an increasingly fractured and de-globalized world. And the latter came into being long before Trump. Let’s see how this wake up call is digested in capitals around the world."
https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/broad-strokes
24. Good teardown on Fake news by DJT re: Ukraine. All Facts here.
Or maybe there is a master plan here. God I hope so.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_etB3c3qOLI
25. An educational and sober conversation on war & the geopolitical scene with Erik Prince.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WPMgzm_9K50&t=358s
26. "Firestorm Labs is 3D printing drones in spaces tighter than the average Washington, D.C., apartment.
Why it matters: Additive manufacturing is incredibly attractive at a time when capacity — so often held hostage by specialty parts, single producers and backorders — is king.
The bottom line: "We believe that decentralized manufacturing is how we're going to win," Magy said."
https://www.axios.com/2025/02/12/firestorm-3d-printing-drones-california
27. A more optimistic take on what's happening in Europe right now. The Post American era. Hope he is right.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upBMCjRXBDM&t=192s
28. One of the keenest observers of Russia here and the effect of a lack of European security strategy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLDTHTIkhFg
29. "The key bottleneck is though now not finance but military equipment and supplies and unfortunately, despite three years of war, Europe has failed to put its military industrial complete into gear. Europe still remains heavily dependent on the U.S. for military supplies, a situation which will be slow to improve. But financing can perhaps help therein and again freeing immobilised Russian assets - the full $330 billion - could be used to fund the biggest ever European arms procurement deal from the USA. Europe should announce a huge $500 billion to $1 trillion arms procurement programme, significantly funded from immobilised Russian assets, and commit to buy much of the weaponary from the U.S.
Therein if Europe came to Trump with the largest arms procurement deal in history, say $50-100 billion a year for the next decade, securing in the process hundreds of thousands of US jobs, I doubt that even Trump could say no to that. Call it the Trump Defence of Democracy Programme, or whatever to glitter in his eye enough to get his agreement. The defence of Europe is now a needs must, we must do whatever we need to do."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/the-answer-to-the-uk-and-ukraines
30. Demographics are destiny. Implications for Europe, Russia and China.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Nn5PnUobDA
31. Always a fun and critical conversation on the latest Silicon Valley news.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a0iREcK5JzU
32. "Most Americans don’t like it when their leaders sell them out to their enemies.
If Trump starts cozying up to China as well as to Russia, as I predict he’ll do fairly soon, the American people will get even more negative about his regime — especially because economic factors are likely to become headwinds at the same time. Eventually, if disapproval gets very high, the Democrats will be able to rally the American public around something other than bland messaging about health care or the identity politics that failed them in previous years.
There’s another big problem with the Metternich-Lindbergh idea, which is that China also gets a vote. Russia is probably happy to take a breather and get the U.S. off its back, but China might not be satisfied with dominion over a third of the world. It’s unlikely to see an introverted, inscrutable, autocratic U.S. as a true ally. And China’s leaders will worry that another change of U.S. leadership could bring American power back to challenge it in Asia.
For this reason, if the U.S. appeases China, they’ll keep trying to weaken American power, even in the Western Hemisphere. They’ll step in as Canada’s patron and protector, as well as the countries of Latin America; the U.S. won’t be able to dominate South America as it did in Lindbergh’s time, and South America has plenty of resources that China would like to monopolize for itself. Shorn of the assistance of Japan, South Korea, and India, the U.S. would not be very capable of resisting Chinese encroachment in its own back yard."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/america-is-being-sold-out-by-its
33. "Why are the Europeans and the West as a whole so worried? One is security, especially for eastern European countries. If Russia takes over Ukraine, there’s a fear that they will move on to conquering other countries. Two is ideology. In the Cold War, the U.S. fought all over the globe, including Korea and Vietnam, to stop the spread of communism.
After decades of fighting and intense competition, the Soviet Union collapsed and Democracy won. This war is also seen as a battle of ideologies, democratic countries teamed together to help Ukraine win against a larger autocratic regime. Countries all over Africa have fallen to autocrats over the past few years. Will democracy win this one, or is it the era of autocracy?
https://www.globalhitman.com/p/swimming-in-strange-water
34. Fun episode today on All in Podcast. Lots of interesting stuff happening in tech.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxP55dZjqZs
35. Trying to make sense of the confusing geopolitics of recent weeks. George Friedman opines. An Un-Anchored world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-okIcAADYE&t=86s
36. "According to data from Dealroom.co, the share of European defence tech investments has risen to 1.7% of venture capital funding in 2024 from just 0.4% in 2022, reaching nearly $1 billion.
Much of the money flows to western Europe but the number of funding rounds has tripled in central and eastern Europe since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Dealroom.co data showed."