Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads March 3rd, 2024
“Out of suffering have emerged the strongest souls; the most massive characters are seared with scars.” - Khalil Gibran
I find these breakdowns interesting. Tiger Woods on how he made his money (it's not just golf it’s mainly sponsorships).
https://manofmany.com/entertainment/sport/tiger-woods-net-worth
2. This is a must read for B2B startup founders.
https://www.vendr.com/insights/saas-trends-report-2023
3. So many great data points on what’s happening in Silicon Valley. Aileen is a 3 cycle investor. It's time to build and invest over the next 5 years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psD8Wd5u-bM&t=10s
4. The Gamestop nuttiness summarized with some valuable lessons for retail investors.
"First, shorting mechanisms are badly abused in our markets. Some securities, like $GME, were able to be sold over 100% of the float. The 140% short interest on the stock was later found to be the maximum that the system could report. In reality, the stock was shorted around 220%, and even that might be conservative.
Second, financial media takes the side of the institutions, every time. The appeal to "retail investors" is a facade- it's a wonder that these news channels can even retain any of their legitimacy after this, with a notable example being Jim Cramer. Third, the clearinghouses, NSCC, and DTCC worked together to protect the brokers, short-sellers, and other firms who had been caught in this trade.
"Free and fair markets" was now clearly shown for what it was- A LIE."
https://dollarendgame.substack.com/p/gamestopped
5. "The national willpower, human cost, and treasure that it took to mentally and emotionally break them is hard to comprehend.
This isn’t a unique situation, people are pretty much the same around the world, human nature is a constant.
Watch the Battle of Algiers movie from 1966 to see the level of will required to win a counterinsurgency against a civilian population. But even then, it only worked for a time before the national French will required to exert their will on Algeria was no longer there.
This is what Israel is currently doing against Gaza and they know they are on the clock. They have limited time to break the will of the Palestinians before the will of their own people and the international will to support the level of violence required fades.
This is also why I think the US strikes in Yemen and the blood thirsty calls by ancient politicians to strike Iran who are risking nothing and should be in an old folks homes instead of clinging to power like Skeletor at Castle Grayskull is such a joke.
The US national will to exert the level of violence required against either of them to win is not there.
There is zero point to having aircraft carriers when the public is not committed to the level of violence necessary to make them the Houthis stop.
It is a fact the Houthis can take more pain than we can deliver since that is all they’ve known for last decade.
Americans can’t even take living without air conditioning, Houthis are having missiles and bombs dropped on their heads while wearing flip flops in 120 degree heat and chanting bring the pain while they keep launching missiles.
No amount of ordnance dropped on them is going to break dudes who have had tens of thousands of bombs dropped on them by Saudi Arabia already."
https://www.radigancarter.com/dispatches/warlord-economics
6. Getting inside an LPs mind. This is very instructive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihT5BHm4z2E
7. "Robust answers will require data and evidence that are not yet publicly available. But the best answer for now lies in the way the two sides, and especially the Russian defenders, used their available forces. By late spring, the Russians had adopted the kind of deep, prepared defenses that have been very difficult for attackers to break through for more than the last century of combat experience. Breakthrough has been—and still is—possible in land warfare.
But this has long required permissive conditions that are now absent in Ukraine: a defender, in this case Russia, whose dispositions are shallow, forward, ill prepared, or logistically unsupported or whose troops are unmotivated and unwilling to defend their positions. That was true of Russian forces in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson in 2022. It is no longer the case.
If quality can ensure quick, decisive victories, the traditional U.S. approach is sound. But if the lesson of Ukraine’s 2023 offensive, in light of past experience, is that deep and well-prepared defenses remain robust, as they have been for the last century, then quality alone may not be enough to ensure the kind of short wars of quick decisive breakthroughs that U.S. defense planning has long tended to presuppose.
Quality is necessary for opportunity but may be insufficient in itself for success. And if so, the United States may need to rethink its balance of quality and quantity in a world where permissive conditions happen sometimes but cannot be guaranteed."
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/how-russia-stopped-ukraines-momentum
8. "Therefore we’ll outline the ideal use case:
Caffeine is ideal for pushing through. If you have an exam, a deadline or something you need an extra hour or two of focused work? Take the drink. Do not use it daily
Caffeine on the physical side is likely maxed at a 20 minute interval or so, maybe 30 minutes max. If you are a competitive athlete you wouldn’t use it for a 90 minute soccer game. You might use it if you have 15 minutes left in a major game, or you are a role player who plays 15-20 mins in basketball. Essentially line up the caffeine with 20-30 mins of max output. Do not use this to try and win the Tour de France as you’ll burn out
Absurd consumption. When you’re in full workaholic mode you might be forced to drink a full gram per day of caffeine. This is absurd to many but if you’ve lived the “gauntlet” you know why it happens. If you do this, you better have a detox plan lined up right after
Consistency kills the positive of caffeine. It is meant to be cycled.
As you can see, no where in here is *daily* consumption. Daily consumption is probably the worst of all worlds. You get a slight boost that declines in effectiveness every week. You’re building tolerance. If you were to take it once or twice a week, at 200mg or so, you are unlikely building tolerance and could zero it out with a couple weeks off."
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/caffeine-as-a-drugperformance-enhancer
9. "Anything that offers substantial rewards comes with risk, a high likelihood of failure. Which means you’ll need to make several appearances at the plate before you connect with the ball. The top scorers in the Premier League miss half their shots.
Great players, like great entrepreneurs and leaders, see the ball go wide, shake their head, and move on. If you want to be successful, you will likely need to quit the majority of your jobs, homes, friends, and investments. Your jobs, locale, investments, and relationships are commitments, not suicide pacts.
What get labeled ”overnight successes” rarely are, and the best way to become an overnight success is to work your ass off for 30 years. Most hugely successful entrepreneurs don’t hit it on their first venture.
Nobody is paying as much attention to your failures as you are, so fear them but don’t let them paralyze you. When you do fail, don’t feel you need to excuse them or blame others. Being gracious in victory is admirable. What’s harder, but can pay greater dividends, is being gracious in failure. Express gratitude to everyone who believed in you, and demonstrate grace to those who didn’t.
Shame and fear of embarrassment often hold people back from leaving … and leading a better life."
https://www.profgalloway.com/quitting-time/
10. "Which is why, even if an invasion is unlikely, or even decades away, the question — What might Japan do if China invades Taiwan, unprovoked? — has become more urgent. Japan’s answer could shape how the US prepares for any armed confrontation over Taiwan, its outcome, and whatever world emerges after.
Whether it wanted to or not, Japan itself cannot intervene to defend Taiwan. Japan’s post-World War II constitution renounces war, and so its Self-Defense Forces (SDF) are just that, a military that exists to defend its territory. (Japan has, especially in recent years, pushed against those constitutional parameters.)
What Japan does have is a security alliance with the United States. This treaty commits the US to defend Japan in the event of an attack on its soil, in exchange for America’s use of Japanese territory for “the purpose of contributing to the security of Japan and the maintenance of international peace and security in the Far East.” That is, military bases. About 55,000 US forces are based in Japan, and US military facilities span 77,000 acres, the majority in Okinawa prefecture. In any war with Taiwan, the US would need to deploy naval vessels and fighter jets from these locations.
But the use of these military bases requires prior consultation: Japan must grant the US permission to use these facilities in combat beyond the defense of Japan. If Taiwan invades, and the US wants to intervene, Japan has its own dilemma: to say yes potentially signs Japan up for war, leaving itself vulnerable to attack from China. To say no could unravel the US-Japan alliance, leaving itself vulnerable by cutting off its only security guarantor.
If Japan does say no, seeing the risks to itself and its population as too great, in any fight with China, the US is probably toast. The American military would likely be crushed if it intervened without being able to deploy its assets from Japan, but potentially strategically defeated if it did not intervene at all."
https://www.vox.com/world-politics/24047940/china-us-war-taiwan-japan-key-role-explained
11. "I asked Hastings if the tumult preceding his departure had left him shaken, a question he shrugged off: “We’ve been through a lot of ups and downs. When I screwed things up with Qwikster in 2011, well, that was a scary moment,” he said.
Hastings remains Netflix’s executive chair, a vague title that has meant a hands-on role for other people in his position, inviting meddling. But Sarandos, who’s stayed on as co-CEO along with former Chief Operating Officer Greg Peters, said Hastings was so intentional in building the company’s cultural foundations that his influence will endure without any need for micromanagement. “Reed had been working on succession, I think, from day one,” Sarandos told me. “He always said, ‘I’m building this company to be around centuries after me.’”
“I’m not in the office a lot, trying to hold on to my powers,” Hastings admitted during our conversation in Utah, as the snow outside glinted under bright sunshine. “They are in charge, and it’s theirs, hopefully, to run for 20 years and make it even more successful.
Then he made an admission: After leaving Netflix, he assumed he would dedicate himself full time to philanthropy. When he found himself spending so many hours on the Powder Mountain project, “I felt guilty. It was an indulgence,” he said. “And then it became ‘I should do both.’ I’ll do more and better philanthropy thanks to the nourishing part,” as only life at this altitude can deliver.”
12. This is a great discussion and school on how venture capital works and the different strategies that firms pursue. So very good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4RfDtAAcgY
13. This looks so very awesome. "The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhnFo21ZlYc
14. The wisest man on the internet these days. Luke Belmar. Entrepreneurship is about freedom.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zHJeylXFsw8
15. "SaaS 1.0 represented the initial leap from physical software installations to cloud-based solutions, changing the way businesses accessed and scaled technology (think Salesforce). SaaS 2.0 built on the concept, embracing mobile integration, enhanced user interfaces, and collaboration tools to meet the evolving demands of enterprises (think Slack).
For decades, machine learning and iterations of AI have been embedded into these B2B applications. Everything from semantic search, automated content generation, recommendation engines, and big data have found their way into product suites. This made managing backend operations much easier for enterprises.
Now, with the emergence of large language models (LLMs), AI isn’t just an add-on but at the core of the application.
Enter SaaS 3.0: In this new phase, AI and machine learning are enhancing B2B applications to more effectively handle business-critical tasks. Through LLMs and deep learning, B2B vendors can automate entire processes, including payments, HR, CRM, content creation, and so much more.
To be fair, OpenAI’s API and enterprise-grade chatbot, along with other LLM vendors, have enabled some tech-savvy startups and hyperscalers to build their own tools to automate tasks.
But the reality is that most companies suddenly aren’t engineering powerhouses, capable of pumping out their own vertical software just by downloading an API. Engineers lack the time and expertise to build proprietary tech. And executives don’t want to invest in developing tools that already exist — ones that benefit from the experiences of thousands of customers and come with the assurance of being third-party provided.
The SaaS business model is alive and well."
16. Two nerds geeking out. Transhumanist and technology thinking. I'm open minded and it was actually interesting.
But I also see why traditional thinkers would hate this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YvSX0rLyERs&t=1s
17. Everyone and anyone who is interested in getting into the Silicon Valley networks needs to read this.
"But how can you make it easy for someone to say yes to spending time with you, when they don’t have any to offer?
The solution involves 3 simple steps:
-Grab their attention quickly
-Signal that you understand how limited their time is
-Earn the rest"
https://chrisneumann.com/archives/the-paradox-of-time-silicon-valleys-ultimate-riddle
18. Good tear down on how government can be improved on.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TD73X_bO8Ss
19. Loved this episode, always thought provoking. NIA is my weekly bite of biz cultural insights.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLFVoxIeqGU
20. There is a great reckoning coming to Europe if their people & politicians do not wake up to the armed threats against them. That and their lack of preparation on the military front and resource front, as well as their over reliance on the USA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0ZvGwzo3GQ
21. This is going to be bad. Global maritime shipping is in trouble.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dtrFTV3ZKDw
22. "Even harder is the work required in Ukraine. Once an engine of the Soviet war machine, Ukraine’s military industry has hundreds of factories and tens of thousands of workers at the ready. But they have been pummeled by Russian missile strikes and have atrophied through decades of mismanagement. According to industry insiders, their output during the first year of the invasion was paltry. Among Zelensky’s advisers, some now see the industry as Ukraine’s best hope for defeating the Russians in what has become a war of attrition.
The task in front of Kamyshin is huge. Not only will he need to breathe life into Ukraine’s moribund factories—in some cases, he will also need to reconfigure them for entirely new purposes. “No matter how much we produce in conventional weapons, we can’t catch up with Russia,” says Kamyshin. “We need to use advanced technology to find a new approach.” He compared the challenge to the story of David and Goliath playing on repeat, with each new phase of the war obliging Ukraine to find a new slingshot."
https://time.com/6588222/zelensky-kamyshin-inside-ukraines-plan-to-arm-itself/
23. Some industry giants talking about what's happening in the tech industry and the global macro situation for public and private cos. It's a timely convo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWE5LsO62wA
24. Another wake up call for the West, will we hear it & take action?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H57_Rev14cE
25. Bull case for technology over the next 20 years. It's an amazing time to be alive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Lnbfw9QdAE
26. This is solid advice. Don't self isolate. Especially when you are feeling down. And especially if you are introverted. Go talk to people if things are bad.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IzZkPx9uYmo
27. "What Makes a Business a "Banana Stand:"
I've identified four key traits.
1. Customers love the product
2. The company is growing quickly (often in hypergrowth)
3. It is losing money (which, nowadays, is virtually all startups)
4. Critically, #1 and #2 are truly primarily because #3 is true.
I call these businesses banana stands because they are functionally equivalent to a banana stand that sells bananas at a discount- or sells banana smoothies for the same price as the underlying bananas. Customers will love it, it will grow, it will burn money- and as soon as it tries to make money, it will find that the reasons for its adoration and growth no longer apply.
This phenomenon is hardly limited to beach-side businesses- or even to consumer product companies, for that matter- there are practically infinite ways to be a banana stand."
28. Another great episode of More or Less to know what’s happening in tech.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dyEEbQqOAE&t=2700s
29. "The stasis comes at a massive cost. College is more expensive than ever and, relative to the number of qualified students, less accessible. The tsunami of capital generated by increasing tuition has not gone toward the mission. Instead, it’s funded an army of high-paid administrators, and academic programs and centers with no measurable outcomes.
These arrogant attempts at social engineering are immune from scrutiny — you are clearly a racist or don’t “get it” if you question the return on DEI, ethics, leadership, ESG, or campus Rolexification (such as lazy rivers and climbing walls). The top tier of higher education is steadily regressing (again) to become the domain of the ultra-wealthy, salted with some freakishly remarkable kids to wallpaper over its transition from a lubricant to a coronation.
A reckoning is inevitable. Demographics are destiny. And destiny is coming for higher ed. The declining birth rates in the aughts mean there will be fewer undergrads starting in 2025. And the appeal of college to this dwindling cohort is fading. The most bloated industry in America is about to face a perfect storm: There are fewer customers, and the ones remaining are losing interest in the product."
https://www.profgalloway.com/rot/
30. This is highly disturbing but also rings true. So much bloat in US defense and ineffective military aided and abetted by horrific bureaucracy in the USA.
Also explains why we lost in Afghanistan. Infuriating.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_bgyUdQAXY
31. "It feels great to win. But that’s not what this story is about.
It doesn’t matter the size of the pond or how large you are in it. It only matters who else is in there swimming with you."
https://www.sanjaysays.co/p/what-tom-brady-and-my-son-can-teach-you-about-success
32. "This sentiment was echoed last week when I met a gentleman and inquired why he chose to live in a warmer climate. He replied, “All the problems are the same. It’s just a little easier living down here.” This reinforces the notion that challenges are frequent, and there will always be aspects of life that are less than ideal.
However, one of the significant advantages of entrepreneurial success is the ability to be more intentional with our choices and, ultimately, to have the problems we prefer to deal with."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/02/03/i-have-all-the-problems-i-want-to-
33. "It’s almost as if some Americans are dealing with the psychic impact of our country’s institutional dysfunction, and our decline relative to China, by punching down on whoever is available to be punched down on — namely, our allies who are struggling even more than we are.
China’s manufacturing prowess is so vast that only by combining their industrial might can the developed democracies hope to match it. This will not happen if we continue to view allies’ companies and allies’ exports with suspicion and antagonism. We need to stop thinking of Germany, the UK, Japan, etc. as our old rivals, and start thinking of them as our indispensable partners. Their strength is our strength, and their weakness is our weakness.
This is something we realized in the aftermath of World War 2 and the early days of the first Cold War, when we did the Marshall Plan and opened our markets to European and Japanese goods. We need to remember that spirit right now."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/economic-losses-for-our-allies-are
34. "Now is a good time to remember what René Girard said about war. It’s mimetic. We humans do whatever the other side does. It’s like a game of copycat, except it’s not a game. Bernard Perret, an expert on Girard, says, “Violence is the most mimetic of passions, and the attraction that it has always exerted is further amplified today by social media." "Violence puts everyone in moral jeopardy, even those who are initially mere spectators." None of us are “mere spectators”.
Every choice to ignore this, or to comment on this on social media, or vote or not vote as a result of all this is an action that will determine the outcome. In the end, nobody wants war. Peter Drucker faced the same problem I see now. War is already underway, just as in the late 1930s when nobody could see it coming. He warned of the imminent risk of war in his first book, The End of Economic Man, in 1939. It was not “politically correct,” but it was correct.
Today’s drivers, forces, and stories are not exactly the same, but history “often rhymes.” Lest we forget, in 2014 President Putin said, “I would like to make it clear to all: This country will continue to actively defend the rights of Russians, our compatriots abroad, using the entire range of available means — from political and economic to operations under international humanitarian law and the right of self-defense.”
I wonder how long it will take for the public to wake up to today’s events and take the risk of conflict seriously enough to try and stop it. NATO Military commanders seem to think a wake-up call is needed."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/wwiii-an-update-for-taylor-swifties
35. "The Super Bowl’s primary purpose may be to crown the top team in professional football (and prop up the American chicken wing industry). But artists who perform at halftime are the biggest winners. In a fragmented cultural landscape, they’re granted the single-largest advertising stage in the world — for free."
https://thehustle.co/why-the-super-bowl-halftime-show-is-the-most-important-commercial-on-tv/