Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads May 14th, 2023
"The art of life is to know how to enjoy a little and to endure very much."--William Hazlitt
“After the Kharkiv offensive, Russia kind of realized that defeat was possible - they could lose territory. I think that was a realization that Ukraine can do offensive operations,” he said. The fortifications are “an acknowledgement of the risk that Ukraine could make another breakthrough”.
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/COUNTEROFFENSIVE/mopakddwbpa/index.html
2. Useful guide to LPs for any new VC manager.
https://govclab.com/2023/04/27/lp-archetypes/
3. "The only reason the dollar was the reserve currency is because the USA dominated everything in the world. Today, the world is far more connected and integrated – regardless of fragmentations caused by pandemics and wars – and this means that a single country’s fiat currency is no longer the model. It may have been last century but, this century, we need a new model.
We need a model of money that is not dependent upon a single nation. A model of money that combines nations into a global currency. A model that creates a world of money. A model that embraces cryptocurrencies and fiat currencies. A world that brings CBDCs together with NFTs. A world that is both decentralised and centralised."
https://thefinanser.com/2023/05/is-the-dollar-disappearing
4. This guy is a badass. Ukraine's spymaster. I wish him great success in his mission of liberating Ukraine from Russia.
"Budanov was appointed to what became a crucial wartime intelligence role in August 2020 after having served a brief stint as deputy director of one of the departments of Ukraine’s foreign intelligence service. Before that, he was a HUR Spetsnaz or special forces commando dispatched behind enemy lines: Even now, he occasionally appears in selfies from the front, kitted out in full tactical gear, in what one senior HUR official said are no mere photo ops: “Budanov still takes part in special operations.”
5. This is completely true.
"Bragging about headcount was 1 of the most corrosive trends in startup land over the last many years"
https://twitter.com/asanwal/status/1654892559276154886
6. For anyone who wants to make their life better and happier. This is a great conversation with Derek Sivers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BaDQCjqUHU
7. "Of course, this is applicable to most things in startupland (and life).
Whether it’s selling a piece of software, earning a mentor, or signing that strategic partner, it’s a process, not a single event. Figure out the process, understand what’s needed for the next step, and work towards it.
Entrepreneurs would do well to sell hard on the next step, not the final sale."
https://davidcummings.org/2023/05/06/sell-hard-on-the-next-step-not-the-final-sale/
8. "In the end? You’ll probably see a few more of these smaller sized banks go under giving more and more power to the top 5-10 banks.
Specific issues you’ll now face: Harder to get any sort of debt. You’re looking at double digit interest rates for anything of size (think private equity and tons of corporate debt *not* named “Apple or Google”). Also. Anyone hoping that the government will issue “stimmies” again is a pipe dream.
If we go through another round of “printing” it’ll likely look like other developing countries where it is some sort of coupon specifically for food/energy/rent that is difficult to move into the consumer economy (huge difference vs. handing out $1,200 checks for people to buy Gucci or random meme coins).
Short Conclusion
More banks will go under as long as the Fed does not cut rates. We do not see them cutting rates in June. While there is a good chance they “pause” a rate cut is simply not in the cards without lower inflation readings. Expect rates to be flat at minimum and we’ll look at inflation numbers in April to confirm/deny that.
On that note, the US dollar is not going to die soon. If you look at Japan their debt to GDP is much worse than the USA and they are still surviving in the weird ponzi-nomics set up. The USA is only at 123% debt/gdp and as reference Singapore is 128% and Japan at 266%. The message? These things take time to play out, it isn’t a meme coin."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/president-powell-bank-failures-and
9. I really appreciate this excellent content here. Luke Belmar is the positive model most young males need.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=59NlyJm9nxw
10. "I know for many families, the appeal of bootstrapping is the promise of a better life: more freedom, money, time, and flexibility. But there is a cost (especially when your kids are young).
There's no guarantee that your bet will pay off, and you can't get that time with your kids back.
So consider this decision carefully, and make sure you and your partner are aligned."
https://justinjackson.ca/bootstrapping-with-kids
11. "To be clear, even an emerging manager on his or her first fund with no full-time employees will spend time on management tasks beyond investing. Other than investing one’s own capital as an angel investor, I don’t believe there’s a way to be a VC without management taking up some portion of your time."
https://chudson.substack.com/p/do-you-want-to-manage-or-do-you-want
12. "The moral corruption bred by indolence, luxury, and a long peace is an old theme in history. The concerns of Vegetius are shared by us today; like him, we look upon the state of military preparedness, and the contemporary social scene, with ever-increasing alarm.
Physical fitness levels in the youth have plummeted; social agendas have been preference to readiness and performance; and political leaders seem unconcerned that military recruitment levels have fallen to dangerously low levels.
The question is whether reforms can be instituted before the arrival of disaster, or whether, as human nature is ill-suited to the recognition of unarrived dangers, a cataclysm must take place before a people recovers its senses. It is a question that will be of the utmost significance for the United States in the coming years."
https://qcurtius.com/2023/05/06/vegetius-discusses-the-importance-of-the-martial-virtues/
13. "The private coaching industry is booming. Top college football players hire quarterback trainers who charge anywhere from $50-$250/hour for their services. Even adult recreational athletes — weekend warriors — have enlisted coaches to improve their times in the triathlon and marathon. Matthews, who declined to tell us his rates, works with an especially elite group.
But since starting his business in 2016, he has landed many of the world’s best basketball players, such as Domantas Sabonis, Skylar Diggins-Smith, and Anthony Davis, as well as numerous figures outside professional sports, from the cast of the Peacock TV show “Bel-Air”’ to musicians like Travis Barker and Drake.
Last year, Jordan Brand designed a player-exclusive shoe for Matthews, an indication of his top-tier status as a trainer.
His skills are more valuable than ever. NBA, WNBA, and NCAA teams have doubled down on long-range shooting, one of the most efficient ways to win, leading dozens of professional athletes to seek out Matthews as a coach."
https://thehustle.co/the-basketball-journeyman-who-became-a-shooting-coach-to-the-stars/
14. "If 2021 was the year of the hungry-hungry Unicorn, then going forward the lesson that founders could take away is that less is more. AI is already writing whole functions of code, debugging processes, and outlining hosting infrastructure. As the AI overlords and capital barons at the top duke it out, the technological advances trickle down and decrease the cost of doing anything: code, content, creativity, and everything in-between.
But the fear is that founders and funders alike will fail to appreciate the new paradigm. For a lot of ambitious people, they look at the big dogs playing a very different game, and believe they're playing the same game. So you get SaaS companies that can be great business and even good venture-backed businesses.
But they, instead, focus on raising billions at 100x ARR, chasing multi-billion dollar outcomes, only to find that those outcomes are out of reach, and their funding approach has made it unlikely that most people will benefit from what they've built."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/blaspheming-against-the-hype
15. This is incredibly instructive on how to spot talent and what to look for in startup founders. Worth watching.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sad3owRmB74&t=7s
16. "Now, it is up to the world to realize that China’s wars will not be fought by PLA soldiers. Their soldiers are already existing in our nations, towns, and societies, fighting for China at a minuscule cost of a real war. It is an invisible war that the world ignores as inconsequential."
https://chanakyaforum.com/chinas-invisible-war-with-india-and-the-world/
17. "The data is now clear: VC investing in emerging markets is no longer a fringe activity practiced only by ‘true believer’ investors willing to withstand decades of losses before exits occur. The exits are now here and valuations are surging. Smaller hubs in Europe, Central Asia and the Caucasus are now catching up quickly with those in the U.S. on a variety of key metrics."
https://www.catapultvc.com/2022-is-the-year-emerging-markets-vc-comes-of-age-heres-why/
18. "First of all, China (and Russia) started Cold War 2. China’s own industrial policy, including attempts to dominate the semiconductor industry and other industries, long predates the U.S.’ milder versions. Chinese technological espionage, coordinated and assisted by the central government and the intelligence services, has been ongoing for over a decade.
China’s increasing threats to conquer Taiwan and to seize pieces of the territories of India, Japan, the Philippines, and Vietnam are what prompted the U.S. to step up efforts to help those countries defend themselves. Russia invaded Ukraine with either tacit or clandestine Chinese approval. Economically and militarily, China and Russia have chosen escalation and aggression on a number of fronts.
They didn’t have to do this. They could have chosen to live with the economic relationships and territorial status quo of the 2000s, in which both countries were growing at a rapid clip and Europe and Asia were almost entirely free of armed conflict. But instead, they chose to make a bid to disrupt the existing order on all fronts.
So now the U.S. and its allies are confronted with the choice of whether to accept Chinese/Russian revision of the international order or to resist it."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-the-us-should-fight-cold-war
19. "China’s often harshly enforced claim to sovereignty over most of the South China Sea has alienated neighbours, provoking numerous confrontations over freedom of navigation, disputed islands and energy resources.
Beijing’s unceasing intimidation of Taiwan, huge military buildup, unhelpful response to the pandemic and backing for Russia’s war in Ukraine fit a broader pattern of off-putting arrogance and domineering behaviour."
20. "The hostile & — especially in Startup & Venture capital world — globally known and feared bureaucratic environment is getting improved by the current administration in Germany. And while lots of details are still yet to be defined, it is a win that there is finally some movement.
It gives hope that there is new thinking that in a rapidly evolving world and with the acceptance of the fact that technology is the fundamental driver of growth in an industrialized world, we can not give the most important resource — talent — only into the hands of incumbents and slowly moving behemoths as BMW and co. but we have to enable world-class educated individuals to translate their knowledge & passion into the future via ventures and innovation in Germany — no matter their place of birth.
Top Talent is hypermobile and Germany needs smart, ambitious people more than they need Germany and yet they want to start here, so we should do our very best to not only educate but to support, enable and reduce barriers as long as we are still high up on their preference stack rank."
https://medium.com/@philipp.herkelmann/entrepreneurial-potential-in-germany-2e8f6e96efab
21. Fan of Randall Park, representing Asian-American actors.
"His career has been defined by a kind of chummy adaptability, whether he plays a dictator (he made Kim Jong Un seem like a fun hang in “The Interview,” from 2014) or raps, as he did as a slacker in the 2019 romantic comedy “Always Be My Maybe,” or adopts an immigrant’s accent, as in his breakthrough role, on the ABC sitcom “Fresh Off the Boat,” adapted from the chef Eddie Huang’s memoir.
The series débuted in 2015 and was the first network show in nearly two decades to feature a predominantly Asian cast. For six seasons, Park played Louis Huang, the series’ wholesome, occasionally overwhelmed father. His onscreen presence makes him seem approachable, if people notice him at all. “One of the great advantages of being Asian, and borderline well known, is that people tend to think you look like just another Asian,” he told me."
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/02/27/randall-park-profile-shortcomings
22. Justin Waller is a smart man. Living a big life and I really learn alot from him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fv1bFSTRDyU
23. "Stop focusing on how to get back to your prior valuations. Accepting down rounds needs to be normalized because a lot of companies are going to just quietly go out of business over the next year. At least with a down round you have a chance to keep fighting.
I didn’t talk about “dirty” term sheets in this post…but TLDR…keep it clean and don’t do stupid things so it appears like you didn’t take a down round.
Investors want high-growth AND efficiency so build a plan based on reality. High spending often comes from seeing success rather than causing success.
Lastly, don’t lie to yourself when building a financial plan. Sure, if you slightly tweak a few assumptions then your company might IPO in 5 years….But when reality hits a lot differently and you have a lot more costs without the associated revenue then it might be too late to change course.
You have 99+ problems running a company, don’t let your pride of not wanting a down round be something that kills your company."
https://www.onlycfo.io/p/down-rounds-wont-kill-you
24. I can attest to this.
"Bad Asian? No, I prefer to be called a Badass Asian because I’m defining myself on my own terms. And that’s a freedom worth protecting and fighting for whether or not you disappoint anyone else."
https://medium.com/stopasianhate/the-joy-of-being-a-bad-asian-241609fe6e69
25. Good discussion on how to look at talent: energy, humor and optimism versus pessimism. Asking good & easy going questions. This is really valuable & thought provoking.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uy8LH2WK94M
26. This is a sad ending to the Yellowstone saga. Ego is the enemy as always.
"For that matter, what of the Yellowstone mythos itself? Yellowstone seemed to be, and arguably was, a show born of Sheridan’s fierce Texan independence, unbeholden to the messy games of America’s elite coasts. But this infighting has all the trappings of classic Hollywood idols fighting over petty Hollywood status symbols. Would the mighty house that Sheridan built be able to stand on prima donna legs?"
27. There is a lot here. He describes well the self-inflicted economic poly-crisis that the USA and the west is facing. Eye-opening.
I hate that he points to a challenging time for the US dollar but he may be right. Makes sense to prep for this. Recommend watching this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVSHIAAeZxI
28. This looks amazing. I'll be there November 3rd. Dune Part 2.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Way9Dexny3w
29. "Now what does that mean? Well, it doesn’t mean VCs have no money to invest … today. They are indeed still sitting on funds they raised last year and the year before at record levels, per the chart above.
But it does mean almost every VC fund is going to be even more cautious. The issue isn’t just exit multiples, or growth rates. It’s also now that they are having a much tougher time raising funds themselves to give to startups.
If that doesn’t last more than a quarter or two, startups won’t really notice. But if this trend continues (and there’s no reason right now to believe otherwise) … it likely will make million+ checks even harder to get in the coming quarters. When VCs aren’t sure they’re going to have nearly as much money to invest themselves going forward."
https://www.saastr.com/fundraising-by-vc-firms-themselves-is-at-a-10-year-low-what-that-means/
30. Wide ranging conversation on technology and human evolution. We will become a widely varying and divergent human species.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5VA1jc_X8U&t=9s
31. De-dollarization seems to be a longer term trend. Inevitable result of weaponization of the US dollar. Part of a larger deglobalization trend.
"But in the last year, a drive to insulate China’s economy from dollar-based sanctions has emerged as possibly the most important incentive for decoupling from the dollar, as China looks to prepare for the possibility of conflict with Taiwan."
32. Praying for success for the Ukrainian counter offensive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MThrhf-YXjU&list=RDCMUCsy9I56PY3IngCf_VGjunMQ&start_radio=1
33. This absolutely makes sense and these are the guys to do it. The Mint from BTV: A Fintech-focused accelerator.
34. "Police departments around the U.S. are donating tactical gear to Ukraine, whose annual defense budget is smaller than the NYPD’s."
https://www.vice.com/en/article/dypkjx/us-police-donates-tactical-gear-ukraine
35. "Star athletes are aiming to set up what many would call a “family office” type environment.
They want to have their own:
-Agency
-Venture fund
-Advisory board
-Charitable foundation
-Media/Production arm
Only a few have been able to successfully do this so far…
But it’s extremely powerful and will create generational wealth for those that have the ability to pull it off."
https://www.petcashpost.com/p/the-athlete-family-office-and-its