Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads May 7th, 2023
"We are here to add what we can to life, not to get what we can from life."--William Osler
Tokyo is back and I'm massively bullish (although biased because I love Japan).
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2023/04/26/commentary/japan-commentary/tokyo-financial-hub/
2. I'm a fan of Justin Waller. The Blue Collar Baller.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcu3HXCrcF0
3. "Venture capital firms are complex webs of cultural politics, power struggles, and short-term measurements of long-term activities. In some ways, VCs can be the dumbest people you'll talk to. Not because they're normal dumb, but because they move so fast, and do so much while operating on so little information that their decision making paradigms can defy most forms of logic.
They say you can only make a first impression once, but with VCs that first impression can sometimes last a lifetime.
Now, take that strange fast-moving poorly-informed decision making paradigm, and then stick a dozen or so of them in a room. That's a venture capital firm."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/eat-what-you-kill
4. This seems crazy. Crazy like a fox?
This is a fast growing company but the valuation seems high but this is a lottery ticket.
https://techcrunch.com/2023/04/28/openai-funding-valuation-chatgpt/
5. Strong case for America's continual pre-eminence. Geography, Population and resources.
https://twitter.com/girdley/status/1652285351107641344
6. This is a sad story. Naive people. Sadly, evil does exist in this world.
"In 2017, two Americans set off on a round-the-world bike trip. They believed people all over the world are inherently good at heart. They never made it home."
https://www.outsideonline.com/2405861/tajikistan-bike-murders-jay-austin-lauren-geoghegan/
7. "The microstate (comprising just 208 hectares) is a world-famous example of how very small jurisdictions can grow faster, get richer, and be more successful overall than bigger countries. They often also score higher on aspects such as crime, unemployment, and public services.
Places like Singapore and Liechtenstein are other famous examples, but not the only ones.
Nowadays, the swathe of successful microstates that are dotted around the globe gets complemented by efforts to establish private cities with quasi-sovereign rights and even new countries. For some of these projects, fundraising among real estate investors and venture capitalists is carried out right now.
Is this going to form a new investment theme or asset class? How could this look like, and what might be its biggest attraction to investors?"
8. Kotkin is one of my favorite historians. He has a great perspective on Russia and geopolitics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTXEmz6nJGk
9. The CCP threat is real.
"Another provision makes it easier for the military to draft people in case of an emergency. This allows the government to adjust the conditions and method of conscription, depending on the types of personnel required, and enables the supply transportation corps to prioritize the transport of military forces for swift deployments.
The changes reflect Beijing's concerns about a possible conflict over Taiwan. A total land, sea and air war could require China to mobilize retired military personnel, as well as active-duty soldiers. Among others, experienced crew who can operate weapons and sonars on warships and fighter pilots are particularly valuable, as training new, highly skilled people takes time.
The revised law aims to bring in science and engineering students trained in high tech, such as artificial intelligence and robotics. Warfare using space satellites, cyber and drones are particular areas of concern. The Chinese military is also focusing on research into "intelligence warfare" that makes use of AI and other technology."
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/China-revises-conscription-law-eyeing-Taiwan-conflict
10. Learning about programming yourself. Luke Belmar is dropping knowledge bombs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcXWgCxjcGM
11. One of the most strategic places in the world right now. Bashi straits between Taiwan and the Philippines.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRK2NuzVtH8
12. US allies in Asia are critical if China attacks Taiwan. Reality though is Japan and Australia are the only ones the USA can count on.
https://www.axios.com/2023/05/02/taiwan-war-us-philippines-japan-korea-australia
13. "Technology has already made the world pretty efficient. The idea that you’re going to get a giant internet or mobile-sized economic opportunity across the board by going better, faster, cheaper on human-based models seems a little tough to swallow—especially when you take into consideration the hype cycle, which is greater now than it’s ever been.
Other than the very first checks, no one paid a remotely reasonable risk-adjusted price for shares of OpenAI unless it winds up being a FAANG sized outcome—and the same is true for a lot of AI companies these days.
Don’t get me wrong, there will definitely be great outcomes for companies that integrate AI into their offerings, and we might be watching today’s sitcoms 30 years from now marveling at how all this took place before AI changed everything, but I’m not quite sure the dollars are going to be there from the venture return side."
https://ceonyc.substack.com/p/why-ai-wont-be-the-investment-opportunity
14. "But I am a realist. And personally, I think the US has a 10% chance of defaulting in months, 70% chance in years, a 19% chance in decades, and a 1% chance of making it to centuries, whether that default be explicit (via something like the debt ceiling) or more likely implicit (via money printing).
I don’t think default is the “end of the world” (not even the world wars were!) but I do think it’s going to be a disruptive period that merits careful preparation, as opposed to either passivity or panic.
Nevertheless, I’m still optimistic on individual Americans, on America at at the state and local level, and on technological progress globally."
15. Hackers for good. More of this please.
16. "However well or poorly China’s military might perform, the geostrategic implications would not constitute a big win for anyone.
In the unlikely event that China’s military performs spectacularly well and swiftly achieves operational success, this victory would stun the region and prompt a major geopolitical realignment, but not necessarily in ways that would all favor Beijing. If the People’s Liberation Army were to stumble seriously or fail spectacularly in a military operation against Taiwan, Xi would be unlikely to throw in the towel.
A major setback would almost certainly generate a protracted war in the center of the Indo-Pacific that would seriously disrupt regional shipping lanes, commercial air travel, and supply chains. As a result, prolonged conflict over Taiwan would be far more disruptive than the ongoing war in Ukraine, both regionally and globally."
https://warontherocks.com/2023/05/xi-jinpings-worst-nightmare-a-potemkin-peoples-liberation-army/
17. "Integrating computing design principles into the military acquisitions process might sound like a reversion — after all, the Pentagon was instrumental in Silicon Valley’s founding, not vice versa — but computing’s pervasiveness demands an immediate strategy adjustment.
Our willingness to adapt matters. What today is considered asymmetric — drones over dreadnoughts — will become the norm. In fact, it’s a dynamic that plays out frequently in the tech industry when startups with new technology and fewer institutional constraints out execute deep-pocketed incumbents. We need to recalibrate our military procurement and design processes to account for that reality.
Rewiring the Pentagon as an ambidextrous organization capable of rapidly fielding innovative tech and still delivering on established programs can help us get there."
https://a16z.com/2023/04/28/how-the-u-s-can-rewire-the-pentagon-for-a-new-era/
18. This is a good discussion on AI & the growth of dual threat CEOs: founders who are good running startups and investing on the side.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5CXqp5nnLM
19. "Biden’s people believe that the same set of policies that will build up American strength vis-a-vis China will also work against domestic inequality and help restore the American middle class. That doesn’t mean they see China as the root of America’s economic ills, as Trump did — instead, it means they think they can kill two birds with one stone. Three birds, if you count climate change.
What are the chances that the same policies that would strengthen the U.S. in the international arena would also boost the middle class at home? In fact, I do think there’s a good precedent for this: World War 2. The massive military manufacturing boom unleashed to fight that war, as well as the advent of science and technology policy, ended up boosting the power of labor, accelerating growth, and creating the preconditions for a robust middle class in the postwar years. It was a double win, and it’s one the Biden administration would like to repeat.
So those are the first two main points to understand about the new industrial policy:
It’s intended to strengthen the U.S.’ hand against China, and
It’s an attempt to at least partially reverse the rise in inequality that happened in the 80s, 90s, and 00s.
Already, there are worries that tensions might emerge between these two objectives — and the objective of stopping climate change."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-new-industrial-policy-explained
20. Elad is one of the best operators and investors in Silicon Valley. So much to learn here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7mW8r0iwGzM
21. "The assignment was simple: write a profile of Sadhguru, the yogi, New York Times bestselling author, and spiritual adviser to Hollywood celebrities and the ultra-rich. At 65 years old, the Indian holy man has become an unlikely influencer on TikTok and Instagram, where more than nine million of his disciples avidly soak up the guru’s advice on how to attain enlightenment – or, at least, a little calm – in our increasingly fucked-up modern world."
https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/lifestyle/article/inside-the-temple-of-sadhguru
22. Long overdue actions here. We are so behind here.
“Whatever we do to deter the war has to happen before the war,” Gallagher told Defense News. “We need to jump-start industry now if we want to actually stockpile munitions that give us a chance of preserving the peace, which means in my opinion that you need multiyear appropriations for critical munitions like the long-range anti-ship missile.”
“We need about 1,000 to 1,200 [long-range anti-ship missiles] if you believe the unclassified wargames,” he added. “Our inventory is less than 250, and we’re just not producing them at a rapid rate. I believe we can get up to above 200 a year.”
23. "I focus on the US because it has taken security and defense seriously when Europe has not. The US is the only party with the actual capability to profoundly change the military balance on the battlefield. Additionally, the US is leading the “pack” of willing (and not so willing) Western countries.
Europe has failed to invest in security and defence, making itself fully dependent on the US. It has no strategic autonomy within security and defence and is, consequentially, unable to provide the military support needed for Ukraine to defeat Russia."
"I am, however, rather convinced that the deliberations – or strategic thinking – will be influenced by a mix of flawed institutional thinking, ignorance of both Russia and Ukraine, Russian disinformation, and Russian-induced fear, as well as concerns over public support and strategic considerations beyond Ukraine.
This is also the main reason why the West is reluctant to set up Ukraine for victory. A series of institutionalized flaws and a lack of strategic thinking."
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/04/29/why-is-the-west-reluctant-to-equip-ukraine-to-win-the-war/
24. "Burgis distinguishes between two types of desire: thin and thick. Thin desires are ephemeral and easily influenced by external factors, while thick desires are rooted in our core beliefs and values. In order to take control of our desires and avoid being pushed and pulled in directions that aren’t true to ourselves, we must identify the difference between the two."
https://bigthink.com/the-well/mimetic-desire-want/
25. This is eye opening and scary. But it's really worth watching. Learning from a spy and the importance of geopolitics in the USA. We need to wake up!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14eG8uoQ6cQ&t=1617s
26. "We Have No Moat
And neither does OpenAI
We’ve done a lot of looking over our shoulders at OpenAI. Who will cross the next milestone? What will the next move be?
But the uncomfortable truth is, we aren’t positioned to win this arms race and neither is OpenAI. While we’ve been squabbling, a third faction has been quietly eating our lunch.
I’m talking, of course, about open source. Plainly put, they are lapping us. Things we consider “major open problems” are solved and in people’s hands today."
https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-we-have-no-moat-and-neither
27. Interesting discussion on Signal Intelligence.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjeGLc9kmeg&list=RDCMUCsy9I56PY3IngCf_VGjunMQ&start_radio=1
28. Never count out Sequoia Capital.
"Tellingly, even in the face of Twitter’s stumbles, FTX’s failure, public equities in freefall and looming doubts regarding ByteDance, Sequoia isn’t facing an exodus of LPs or anything resembling an internal revolt. This, perhaps, is why Sequoia tapped a partner like Botha to lead the firm in the first place. The institution has built a reputation over the last half-century for being both far-looking and indefatigable; its leader must be made of the same stuff.
“He’s the right steward for the moment,” said Antonio Gracias, founder of Valor Equity Partners and a fellow investor in Musk’s Twitter. “This is the time when you want someone who can separate emotion from logic and fact.”
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/sequoia-capitals-mighty-struggle
29. "The arc of evolution bends toward good storytellers. Communities with larger proportions of skilled storytellers experience greater levels of cooperation, and … procreation. Their evolutionary fitness is buttressed, as storytelling translates to more efficient transmission of survival-relevant information.
Storytellers themselves are more likely to receive acts of service from their peers — and among men, being skilled in storytelling increases attractiveness and perceived status to potential long-term mates. My dad used to tell me that men get turned on with their eyes, women with their ears. It turns out his theory is backed by science."
https://www.profgalloway.com/storytelling/
30. Worth listening to if you are a SaaS founder.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyo1rF4iEZ4
31. This is a fascinating view on history and geopolitics.
https://twitter.com/Valen10Francois/status/1652630776976924673
32. China dominating the auto manufacturing industry is dangerous for the west. This is a dual use capability & easily converted to military use.
https://twitter.com/_MadeInThe_USA/status/1652804222050549768