Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Oct 2nd, 2022
"There is nothing impossible to they who will try."— Alexander the Great
This is a must read for anyone trying to explore entrepreneurship & a good guide to getting started.
"Nothing will give you more freedom and security than running a business you fully control.
A lifestyle business isn’t about getting rich (although it could happen).
A lifestyle business is about being free."
https://newsletter.invinciblesolopreneurs.com/p/how-to-build-a-lifestyle-business#details
2. Bravery is so rare these days, unlike back in the age of aristocratic warfare. Here is an interesting list of episodes from back then. Be inspired.
https://twitter.com/CallMeColletta/status/1570791729519030274
3. For all new startup founders who came up in the world last 3-4 years. This is a wake up call backed up by data.
"When you look at how much median valuations were driven up in the past 5 years alone it’s bananas. Median valuations for early-stage companies tripled from around $20m pre-money valuations to $60m with plenty of deals being prices above $100m.
If you’re exiting into 24x EV/NTM valuation multiples you might overpay for an early-stage round, perhaps on the “greater fool theory” but if you believe that exit multiples have reached a new normal, it’s clear to me: YOU. SIMPLY. CAN’T. OVERPAY.
It’s just math.
But we’re confident that valuations will get reset. First in late-stage tech companies and then it will filter back to Growth and then A and ultimately Seed Rounds."
https://bothsidesofthetable.com/what-does-the-post-crash-vc-market-look-like-ed81cd884021
4. This is really good stuff. Building your own self defense system & may be useful particularly in the USA. Think of it as insurance that you hope you never have to use.
"I will walk you through the evolution of my thinking on self-defense, what I tried that worked and didn’t, and what my self-defense system is, plus I’ll link you to every effective resource I know of so you can develop your own system.
Ideally, this post should save you thousands of dollars and months or years of wasted effort and time–not to mention, it may even help you protect yourself or your family."
https://www.tuckermax.com/my-entire-self-defense-system
5. "Between the time a seed-stage SaaS startup ships its MVP and closes its first few paying customers is the Wilderness Period. This is when you find out that your MVP isn’t really MVP.
You try to sell your minimum viable product, encounter objections you hadn’t anticipated, race to code the new requirements (the new MVP), and repeat. The Wilderness Period can take two months, two years, or forever.
That unknown makes this one of the most unsettling periods in a startup’s life, as the pure potential and excitement of building the MVP confronts the reality of not being able to find paying customers. Or as Mike Tyson said, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.”
The Wilderness Period ends when the startup finally makes its first few bonafide sales. I call this crossing the Penny Gap. But selling to friends and classmates doesn’t count; only unaffiliated revenue qualifies. And the milestone isn’t satisfied just by closing the customer, you also have to implement them successfully and turn them into happy references. In other words, these deals only count if they are potentially repeatable."
https://sacks.substack.com/p/the-wilderness-period-61f009c769ac
6. "Ballpark nachos are a concession stand staple. At Rangers games alone, 600k orders were sold last year, or 1 for every 3.5 fans. For all of Major League Baseball, that statistic would translate to ~13m orders.
And for every order, there’s one key figure to thank: San Antonio businessman Frank Liberto.
Decades ago, he added a twist to a popular Mexican appetizer and originated the concept of the ballpark nacho. If you’ve purchased nachos at a sporting event or a movie theater, odds are you’ve bought chips, cheese sauce, or jalapeños from the Liberto family’s longtime business."
https://thehustle.co/the-family-that-built-a-ballpark-nachos-monopoly
7. This is always a good conversation on the edge of the internet and creative world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UPXVwHRo0A&t=1572s
8. There are oodles of actionable sales wisdom here. Wish I had then we got started oh so long ago.
https://bowtiedsalesguy.substack.com/p/how-to-be-efficient
9. "I therefore do not share the pessimism of Tooze and Ferguson regarding Ukraine’s immediate economic situation. Yes, it’s good to be properly alarmed in order to avert problems before they become insoluble. But at the same time, it doesn’t seem accurate to depict Ukraine’s economy as being on the brink of collapse.
Economic activity is stabilizing, exports are rising again, foreign aid is pouring in, food isn’t a problem, fuel is being imported in sufficient quantities, inflation is high but still manageable, the hryvnia peg is holding for now, and the military situation appears to be improving. Ukraine needs to raise taxes, but if they make that one policy change, they should probably hold on OK.
And after the Russians are fully ejected from the country, Ukraine has a bright future ahead. Its grain exports will recover, its defense industry will be supercharged by the war and will transition to peacetime manufacturing, and it appears to be joining the greater East European information technology cluster. Foreign countries will likely forgive their wartime loans and provide reconstruction aid — already, countries are lining up to promise support.
The EU will probably offer single market access for Ukraine, which helped supercharge the economies of Poland and Romania in earlier decades. And Ukraine’s oligarchs seem to be declining rapidly in power and wealth— a sign that the country won’t return to the corrupt, dysfunctional economy of the 1990s and 2000s.
In the long term, I am very bullish on Ukraine."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/cautious-optimism-about-ukraines
10. A guide for anyone stuck in a big company job & trying to get out.
Protect your time, be in the top percentile of performance (not 1% but 20%) and work on your side businesses.
"Your career is the regular season, your WiFi biz and health is the playoffs. Don’t get them mixed up."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/basic-office-politics-moves-and-how
11. Good analysis on Putler's speech on the partial mobilization.
Basically stay cool, no negotiations, send more weapons to Ukraine and crush these Russian barbarian invaders.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zfx7P1PVZoU
12. "You will never regret that you didn’t spend enough time online but you will regret that you didn’t spend enough time on the things and the people you love. Technology should liberate us, not enslave but only you can decide which alternative you prefer and what lifestyle you want to live."
https://fewerbetterthings.substack.com/p/digital-minimalism-is-a-daily-practice
13. "China is also sidling up to Turkey because it has a bigger army and more effective weapons than Russia. Turkey knows who the arms buyers will be in the future – China and its allies in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Turkey is now set to be the only member of NATO to join the SCO. Even in the murky world of gun runners, Turkey’s ability to play both sides and play with both sides is quite stunning.
Xi is well aware that Russia cannot seem to run its army or successfully recruit what they need. Russia’s efforts to convince prison labor to join the Russian Army are not going well. Russia has a standing military of 280k, including contract mercenaries, some volunteers, and a formerly bloated, but now heavily assassinated officer corps. Turkey, in contrast, has double that number and can expand this quickly. China wants manpower and technological capability. One can see why they’d swap Russia for Turkey. Turkey is hot now. Russia is increasingly out in the cold."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/hot-turkey
14. "We used to refer to an information economy. But economies are defined by scarcity, not abundance (scarcity = value), and in an age of information abundance, what’s scarce? A: Attention. The scale of the world’s largest companies, the wealth of its richest people, and the power of governments are all rooted in the extraction, monetization, and custody of attention.
Commercial exploitation of attention is not new. Humans have been competing for attention since the days when nomadic leaders argued over which branch of the river to follow and turning “content” into wealth since Aeschylus produced the Oresteia.
Oil was elevated by the invention of the internal combustion engine, industrial revolutions in mechanization and plastics, and the development of a Western lifestyle dependent on the mobility of goods and humans. Now the shift from atoms to bits — digitization — has put wells into pockets, on car dashboards, and on kitchen counters, drilling night and day for … attention."
https://www.profgalloway.com/attentive
15. "Maximilian’s heroism and the valor he displayed on the battlefield raises a very interesting question. How were aristocratic young boys like him raised to be able to fight in battles so young and to endure both the physical and the mental aspect of these brutal wars?
Obviously tournaments, hunting and similar imitations of war and confrontation played a role, and Maximilian enjoyed these a lot. But education for future rulers like him had already been geared towards physical training, strengthening of character and preparation of war since their early childhood, and tutors could play an important role as well."
https://aristocraticfury.substack.com/p/15th-century-advice-on-how-to-raise
16. "All across the ragged fringes of Russia’s sphere of influence, from Eastern Europe to the Caucasus and Central Asia, former parts of Moscow’s once-vast empire are in outright rebellion or being left to fend for themselves while the Kremlin focuses on its increasingly catastrophic war.
As it loses sway among its former subjects, new conflicts are breaking out, alliances are being forged and old rifts opening up."
https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-fall-russia-empire-ukraine-war-armenia-azerbaijan
17. This is an excellent episode of "All in Podcast" this week. Especially the great discussion on the public and private markets.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bcGwHworAo0&t=1s
18. This is the latest Peter Zeihan talk. As always, I get new ideas and learnings about the geopolitical environment when I watch these.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UA-jOLF2T4c
19. "Accelerating the pace and prospects for a decisive Ukrainian victory would be not only smart strategy but an act of mercy—mostly for Ukrainians, who deserve it, but also for Russians who do not. One may have sympathy for the draftees from impoverished, non-Slavic regions of Russia who provide Putin’s cannon fodder, but these are also the ones committing the barbarities and war crimes that have so marked the war.
One cannot say it too often: The Biden administration holds the key to making this war shorter, less destructive, and less bloody than it already is. The war cannot end—nor a just peace begin—without a Ukrainian victory that secures all of its sovereign territory. We can see this victory just outside the window now."
https://www.thebulwark.com/what-the-ukrainians-need-to-succeed
20. "The contract between a business and a worker to do X and get paid Y. It’s project-based work that isn’t compensated at an hourly rate but based on the value of a job that needs to be done.
It’s a career model that aligns well with the trends of the creator economy model.
That career model generally looks like this:
As more people participate in social media, they grow audiences around an infinite number of niche topics. Including professional topics.
Individuals with growing audiences realize that they present an opportunity to monetize a growing network in different ways. They begin to realize that remote work is a viable work opportunity that supports many different lifestyles.
And so, they look for ways to leverage global audiences to first establish credentials via content and relationships and then leverage these credentials to earn incomes from these niche communities.
What’s The Benefit For Companies?
A partially contract-style workforce can lower the hiring costs of traditional employees. No health care, payroll tax, office space, or other HR-related expenses. (unless of course, these are part of the negotiated compensation)
It means smaller commitments and businesses can turn these relationships on or off quickly."
https://dougantin.com/recession-proof-the-quarter-time-job
21. Great thread on the future of work. Remote and its ramifications.
https://twitter.com/DougAntin/status/1573645755914407936
22. This is a crazy good rundown of the Figma deal and Porsche-VW.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WXkjtN2-huY
23. "Accelerating the pace and prospects for a decisive Ukrainian victory would be not only smart strategy but an act of mercy—mostly for Ukrainians, who deserve it, but also for Russians who do not. One may have sympathy for the draftees from impoverished, non-Slavic regions of Russia who provide Putin’s cannon fodder, but these are also the ones committing the barbarities and war crimes that have so marked the war.
One cannot say it too often: The Biden administration holds the key to making this war shorter, less destructive, and less bloody than it already is. The war cannot end—nor a just peace begin—without a Ukrainian victory that secures all of its sovereign territory. We can see this victory just outside the window now."
https://www.thebulwark.com/what-the-ukrainians-need-to-succeed/
24. I've been pretty vocal for YEARS about how crap Bird and the micromobility space is. Awful unit economics and no business model. It's turned into a VC pump and dumb scheme.
"Winter is coming. Literally. The scooter business is extremely seasonal.
I wanted to take a moment to eulogize the venture scale scooter business. We’re seeing the full unraveling of the blitz scale, cash-on-fire venture model.
“It was the beginning of that pure VC ‘herd mentality’ period,” remembers someone from the on-demand world. “Almost everyone was trying to tell everyone over and over the economics didn’t make any sense, but no reason for anyone to listen."
https://www.newcomer.co/p/scooter-executives-head-for-the-exits
25. "The war is far from over — the violence will continue; Ukrainians will continue to die. And so the West’s involvement must continue, too. There can be no retreat — either for Ukraine, or for the international order we have so painstakingly built over the seven decades, since the last time a tyrant unleashed industrial war on the European continent."
26. "So, just because you create within a certain vein doesn’t matter – that’s not what we want and that’s not what the world needs more of. Audience data shows we crave personality, it’s the logical endgame of what makes for standout, memorable media. What’s legitimately fascinating and unmissable is …you. We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again: no one can copy that."
https://adamsinger.substack.com/p/niche-overrated-personality-underrated
27. "Brooks, who began his Atlantic column in 2020 after 10 years as the president of the American Enterprise Institute, the neoconservative think tank known for its support of free-market economics, has quickly turned himself into a leading popularizer of happiness studies. In his eyes, he’s uniquely positioned as a messenger between academia and the self-help space. “The self-improvement people can’t read the literature, and the academics can’t talk to the humans,” says Brooks. “There’s a seam running through that.”
Brooks lives on that seam. He may not have a degree in psychology, but his Ph.D. in quantitative public policy analysis—“basically, mathematical modeling and applied microeconomics,” he says—makes him particularly adept at synthesizing scientific research and common sense wisdom into erudite life advice.
Typically he reads a dozen scholarly articles a week and metabolizes them for the general public, both in his Atlantic column and on his podcast, The Art of Happiness with Arthur Brooks. His goal, he says, is to build “a grassroots movement of happiness hobbyists.
His goals are not modest. “That’s actually how you change the country,” he continues. “Everyone is talking about politics—nonsense. Politics changes because people have hope. People have hope because they’re seeking happiness. So you have to start where the story starts, which is trying to simulate a happiness movement. Then you save the country. The ambitions are big.” Jeffrey Goldberg, the editor-in-chief of The Atlantic and a close friend of Brooks’s, underscores that point. “Arthur is on a mission,” he says. “And I think being on a mission makes him happy.”
https://www.gq.com/story/arthur-brooks-secrets-happiness
28. The Brosnan boys.
"Dylan and Paris say they’ve learned a lot from their father’s example – lessons about preparation, passion, confidence, showing up on time. And humour, Dylan says: “Don’t be afraid to make fun of yourself.”
That in-on-the-joke quality comes through in the elder Brosnan’s self--deprecating responses any time the conversation veers into craft talk. It’s always been key to his appeal. He’s there when the movies need a Pierce Brosnan type to put on a tux, but he also meets our need to see a Pierce Brosnan type be made to look silly (traversing a hotel lobby in The Matadorwearing nothing but boots, a moustache, and a pair of Speedo’s). He’s been pelted with fruit by Robin Williams, transformed into a disembodied head by Martians, and once sang Abba’s “SOS” to Meryl Streep."
https://www.gq.com/story/the-brosnan-boys
29. "There is no evidence for now that weapons are being moved into position or being prepared for such strikes. US intelligence, which has been extraordinarily precise so far can be expected to pick up any details (or at least the Russian would need to assume that). No effort has been made to explain to the Russian public why such strikes might be necessary.
After all Putin still insists that this is a limited operation and has refused to put the country on a war footing.
As we have seen Russian figures talk garrulously about scenarios for nuclear use against NATO countries but not Ukraine. We can also assume that neither of Putin’s recent interlocutors - Xi and Modi - would be enthused. This is a scenario largely generated in the West trying to anticipate contingencies that have yet to be reached."
https://samf.substack.com/p/going-nuclear
30. "From this perspective, I’m not traveling anymore, just living here with a few well curated things fitting into a light-weight 35 liter backpack. And I live with two interfaces: one towards the new physical reality and one towards the same digital screens, now blending into a new whole life experience.
Thus traveling is both the physical activity of going from one place to another and the spiritual journey of self-discovery. It’s shifting context to be exposed to new ideas, learnings, and experiences for the benefit of personal growth and self-awareness."
https://fewerbetterthings.substack.com/p/traveling-without-moving-is-called
31. This is an excellent interview with the brilliant Balaji Srinivasan. So many insights on the future incoming world + a great overview of his optimal schedule for productivity. Strong recommendation here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQpZSVCTZCo&t=766s
32. Another example of the idiocy in the European governments right now. Especially in light of the energy crisis happening there.
https://www.yahoo.com/video/why-europe-won-t-exploit-230000776.html
33. A good thread on the issues with Russian logistics and why mass mobilization will not help their war effort as much as people think.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1573783459537076225
34. Lessons from one of the best hedge fund managers around. Stan Druckenmiller.
https://twitter.com/NeckarValue/status/1573685872192622598
35. "For the West, there is a risk that, given Russia’s military position on the ground, mobilisation is met with complacency. In practice, however, it means that new Ukrainian manoeuvre units must be trained and equipped to counter new Russian formations in the spring. It also means that improving Russian troop levels will force Ukraine to expend more materiel to make progress.
There is, therefore, a need to reinforce success now by continuing to expand training and equipping of Ukrainian troops. There is also a need to transition defence industry to be able to sustain production of equipment and ammunition throughout 2023. This is both to meet Ukraine’s needs and to reinforce a deterrence posture against China.
The decision point to make such preparations is now. If those decisions are not taken, Western governments – like Putin – may find that when they come to pull the lever, there is a considerable lag between when the resources are needed and when they become available. The cost for Kyiv of such complacency would be severe.
It is also possible that if new waves of Russian recruits, forcibly mobilised, fail to improve Russia’s position on the battlefield, then the political backlash in Russia may provide the best means of compelling Moscow to shift its policy."
36. "It will be a Herculean administrative task to provide uniforms and training for 300,000 troops, find qualified leaders at the officer level, provide them with effective equipment, and get them integrated with communications and logistics. It will be months before a significant number can be brought to bear in combat. Then, almost certainly, they will become yet another wave of cannon fodder launched at Ukrainian positions.
The Ukrainians, knowing they may eventually be facing a much larger force, will prepare their own responses. They will be seeking (and probably receiving from the West) systems that can negate large numbers of foot soldiers: close-air attack planes, tanks and artillery, mounted machine guns, precision mortars and long-range surface-to-surface missiles.
The Russians being pulled off the street in this mobilization will face a highly motivated, extremely well-armed and very innovative foe in the Ukrainians. The War of Putin’s Ego continues, and many of these 300,000 poor souls are likely to pay the ultimate cost for his folly."
37. "Thankfully, however, the ‘VID-demic caused many of us to rethink the way our lives are structured. And many of us have taken action to make changes.
Many people took action to acquire residency in a more free nation, or to trace their lineage to see if there was an easy way to claim a second citizenship and passport. And for some, it was the simple act of diversifying cash and assets across multiple nations, to prepare for the possible unfortunate event of an economic calamity in their home nation.
And the great news is that unlike most of prior human history, many of these actions aren’t only exclusive to the richest segments of society. Almost anyone can get another residency, citizenship, or set up a digital bank account to store assets around the globe.
However, many of us haven’t paid attention to the signs. Or at least once the stress of the ‘demic subsided, just reverted back to their old patterns as soon as life began to return to normal.
It doesn’t matter what you do to create a backup plan. Just do something."
https://abundantia.substack.com/p/time-to-flee
38. A very interesting thread on medieval naval warfare.
https://mobile.twitter.com/LandsknechtPike/status/1573838412913704964
39. “There’s been a retreat by ‘tourists,’” said Hebert, meaning those investors who normally had not invested in hard tech and typically come in at later stages."
https://news.crunchbase.com/venture/deep-tech-funding-investors-quantum-cruise
40. "Much of success in venture is knowing what (and when) to buy. If you do that well it’s very difficult to mess it up. Conversely, if you’re not a good picker, it’s difficult to overcome that, even if you had perfect timing on secondary sales. But sometimes the difference between B+ and A- (or between A and A++++) can be a well-timed decision to turn unrealized gains into partially realized."
41. "Sometimes, long-term focus is confused with the expectation of outsized outcomes. Targeting outsized outcomes is great but it is not the same as having a long-term focus. Multi-billion dollar outcomes happen because the building blocks are long-lasting and not the other way around. Simply put, large victories happen because of incredible visions and the proper execution of that long-term strategy."
https://medium.com/susa-ventures/the-future-of-software-back-to-the-basics-521544e5a25b
42. "What can we make of Adani and his fast-growing $142B fortune?
The Financial Times brings up an important question: is the concentration of wealth in India a path towards an East Asian model of development (think the Samsung family in South Korea) or the Russian model (oligarchs nabbing state assets on the cheap while creating little value for the country).
Adani clearly has close ties to Modi. Adani Group is over-reliant on coal. The business may be sitting on a systemic debt bomb. AND the value of his stocks are completely removed from business fundamentals.
But, Adani also has a track record of delivering what India needs to develop (ports, rail, infrastructure, electricity). His big bets on export-driven growth and energy also aligns with Modi’s development goals for India.
Whatever you think of him, you have to understand Adani to understand India’s future…and this is my first attempt at doing so."
https://trungphan.substack.com/p/gautam-adanis-140b-fortune-explained
43. Sounds about right.
“Lethality matters most,” he said. “When you can kill your enemy, every part of your life is better. Your food tastes better. Your marriage is stronger,” Minihan said."
https://taskandpurpose.com/news/air-force-general-mike-minihan-mobility
44. Interesting cool facts of the ultra Cool Berlin techno scene.
"A key factor of Berlin's scene: The clubs never have to close their doors. Many stay open the entire weekend, leading some ravers to arrive on Friday night and leave Sunday morning.
The roots of Berlin's no-curfew culture can be traced to the start of the Cold War, when negotiations over a bottle of whiskey led to the abolition of a postwar curfew — and set the stage for Berlin's becoming one of the world's hottest destinations for techno music."
https://www.npr.org/2022/09/23/1121435229/berlin-clubs-techno-berghain-kitkatclub
45. "If you’re in a position to run a high-velocity fundraising process, then presenting yourself as a dot (a single data point during fundraising), is likely to be the best approach for many founders.
But not every founder can do that.
There are situations where it is in your best interest as a founder to present investors with multiple data points so that they can build a line over time."
https://chrisneumann.com/blog/are-you-a-line-or-a-dot
46. Illuminating thread on the big crisis the world faces in fuel, food and fertilizer.
https://mobile.twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1574162334813229057
47. "Putting this all together,
1) Japan is in a really messy situation and it’ll be interesting to see what they do with US token reserves and interest rates going forward,
2) public companies are in big trouble if they have international revenue and limited FX hedges,
3) there is no “quick fix” for this level of global stability as FX hedge contracts will swing wildly to reflect the volatility in the currency swings and
4) this is a major issue that likely leads to layoffs especially if not perfectly hedged (vast majority are not perfectly hedged and even major companies would unlikely hedge more than 80% or so).
"Patience is a Virtue: In a bull market, patience isn’t a virtue. Everyone is hopping from new idea to new idea over and over again. The more “value” in the terminal multiple the better!
In the current environment (runaway train inflation hikes) it’s the opposite. Every quarter or so you will see prices go down particularly for homes. This means sit back keep your career, maintain biz volumes the best you can and wait. When the math starts making sense for you (sometime 2023 at earliest) then it’s time to take a look.
Conclusion: Take a look around and see who is in a bad mood, good mood and unchanged. People who are unchanged/in a good mood are the ones you want to jot down. It means they didn’t take on too much risk. They can laugh at some of the bad decisions they made over the last five years and on top of that, they will likely do incredibly well through the bear market.
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/fx-causes-high-costs-and-eps-adjustments