Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads October 15th, 2023
“Don’t fear failure. Not failure, but low aim, is the crime. In great attempts it is glorious to even fail.” – Bruce Lee
This is enlightening. Syed has built an online empire at a very young age.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gzHdrQ5pDFo
2. Unbelievable fund and impressive performance. Semil and Haystack Ventures.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxmSyVVhazg
3. "Wifi money by definition is location-independent income.
You have no boss and no financial reason to stay in the U.S.A. if you don’t want to.
So if you want to relocate to a lower-cost of living location with a more traditional culture then an online business is really the only way to do it.
The problem?
You have to go through years of pain to get to that point.
I’ve talked over and over again about the years of struggle you’ll have to go through to get to the point where you have complete wifi money freedom."
https://www.tetramarketing.io/p/online-businesses-and-passport-bros
4. "The net effect of these developments has been a major Ukrainian advantage in the artillery war.
Massive losses have forced a change in how Russia uses its artillery guns. Whereas pre-war doctrine placed brigade artillery assets 4km from the front, Russian artillery units now hide 15-20km behind the frontlines, advancing only for brief periods to conduct fire missions.
While this may improved the survivability of those Russian guns, their continued communication problems mean that Russian units on the contact line suffer from poorly timed and coordinated fire support.
It is now Ukrainian artillery that operate close to the frontlines with impunity, and Russian batteries that have largely been forced back to a safer distance."
5. This was a great interview, some valuable frameworks for looking at startup investing. Especially for AI.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZgerlKINHA
6. Volatile future seems to be an understatement.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddWh5rI7Mw8
7. "If one thing is never happening, it’s “dedollarization” in Argentina. No one has ever seen a Yuan bill in their life, and they would never swap their Benjies for Mao.
Everyone with half a brain here understands that a currency with capital controls like the Yuan could never be a store of value versus a currency that can be used without any of those restrictions.
Libertarian economist and presidential candidate Javier Milei is proposing a full dollarization by shutting down the BCRA and adopting the dollar."
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/watching-a-country-fail-in-real-time
8. Long overdue to visit Buenos Aires, one of my favorite cities in the world.
"Buenos Aires is a city that people fall in love with at first sight, or people find “too European”. The great thing about the city is that there’s enough Latam vibes to go around and it is still a place with beautiful architecture and great nightlife & restaurant options.
For a country with close to 150% real inflation on the ground, restaurants and bars are packed every single day. Those pesos need to be spent at lightning speed."
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/city-guide-buenos-aires-bowtiedmara
9. "If emotion is data, people are as well. People and data are two critical pillars of every single company. If you’re not investing a good chunk of your time on it every single week to become a master in those two domains, you’re screwing up. Whenever you chat with an investor, a partner, or a customer, take it as a chance to test whether you really master what you’re talking about or if you’re still compensating for your lack of depth, clarity, and precision.
You are not an exception.
Master to Conquer!"
https://2lr.substack.com/p/master-and-conquer
10. This is absolutely not good news.
"In late 2021, I wrote a post arguing that Xi Jinping simply isn’t that competent of a leader, noting a number of areas in which his initiatives seemed to be failing. The piece drew fire from a lot of “China hands” who felt I was straying outside of my lane (which was true), while a number of other people scoffed at the idea that the absolute ruler of an ascendant superpower could be anything other than a genius. Two years later, after Zero Covid, diplomatic blunders, and a real estate crash, my thesis is close to conventional wisdom.
In recent weeks, a spate of articles has come out in the Western press blaming Xi for failing to adequately stimulate China’s flagging economy. Xi’s personal objections to welfarism — or to any economic policy he didn’t initially plan for — seem to be a stumbling block.
Xi is also clearly the kind of Boomer conservative whose understanding of economics is heavily tinged with industrial nostalgia and strange notions of masculinity. That’s not a sound basis for making economic policy, and so policy mistakes like fiscal austerity in the middle of a financial crisis are only to be expected."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/what-if-xi-jinping-isnt-that-competent
11. This is a great summary of good customer acquisition channels for brands. Really really good.
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/uncommon-marketing-strategies-california
12. The end of the industrial model of Venture Capital. Great discussion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j22TodbqM7s&t=1272s
13. Really depressing but enlightening discussion on geopolitics, the USA and its military. The importance of property rights and the dangers of regulatory capture in the USA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3x6KDLovJFg
14. The gold standard of seed investing. One of the best but relatively unknown investors in the world. Roger Ehrenberg IA Ventures. So much insight here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DAestOS4-OI
15. My favorite new podcast. More or Less: Morins Meet the Lessins. Very timely conversation on the zeitgeist in Silicon Valley.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eF34BGimRaI
16. Zeihan is a bear on China but still....the Chinese real estate bubble is crazy scary.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVMlEiewyT4
17. Not the nicest man, but brilliant operator and VC investing at the bleeding edge of technology.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIjxJM_KPsM&t=525s
18. Insightful view on the French and their African colonies. Explains a lot of what’s going on.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKL_TvieqBg&t=334s
19. "These are the three major “trends”. If you are in survival mode the games are played at different levels. If you have some assets, you sell those to pay the mortgage. If you go through that you go into balance transfers and credit. So on and so forth. We just provided the three general things people will do which is: 1) sell liquid stuff, 2) extend and pretend/balance transfer and 3) begin walking away from assets that are lower on the “importance” stack.
The markets are emotional and everyone is making the same bet “they will print and save us”. While it is true that the eventual solution is printing the question is *when*. Remember, they can hold rates as high as they like for at least 2 years due to the unlimited debt ceiling.
Anyone who is close to default will be part of the list of casualties. When the Fed steps in, it will be *after* job loss, foreclosures, bankruptcies and general pain for the public."
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/making-sense-of-the-markets-and-preparing
20. "In essence, young nerds aren't necessarily more innovative because of their age, but rather due to their higher mobility, which allows them the freedom to move to areas where they can connect with fellow nerds. It's still an age-related factor (given that mobility tends to be associated with youth, as I can personally attest), but it's not tied to the biological aspect of age.
A thought-provoking takeaway emerges: by enhancing the mobility of older nerds, it's possible to offset the demographic decline among younger nerds and its negative impact (per Zeihan) on innovation."
https://www.europeanstraits.com/p/who-and-where-are-todays-innovators
21. "For three and a half months, the world’s eyes have been on the handful of villages and the fields surrounding them south of Orikhiv. Of all the areas where Ukrainian forces have advanced, this one is the most consequential, and the best defended.
Since the counteroffensive was launched in June, the story of the Orikhiv axis has been the story of the 47th, with ups and downs, moments of immense pride and inevitable regret."
22. Lots of good insights. Investor Operator podcast. Learned a bunch here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88g9afUw3dQ&t=15s
23. "However, venture investing is far from “easy”. While it may seem tempting to jump into the start-up world, family offices should not underestimate the complexities and the risk involved. Unlike passive investments, venture capital requires active participation and significant expertise to navigate the unique challenges inherent in this asset class."
https://concentric.vc/news/want-to-try-venture-investing-it-isnt-as-easy-as-you-might-think/
24. Love these conversations on what's happening in Silicon Valley.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkuAjqXfoOw
25. "While SaaS may be ubiquitous in developed markets, helping businesses manage everything from inventory to HR and cashflows, it is still nascent in emerging economies. There are two key challenges for SaaS adoption in these markets.
The first is the willingness and ability of businesses, especially SMEs, to pay for software. Many have become accustomed to using it for free and push back against subscription fees.
The second is the digital literacy of the end user, which can lead to low engagement and churn unless the right education and onboarding is put in place."
https://sturgeoncapital.substack.com/p/100m-arr-club-part-iii
26. Interesting list. I agree with Georgia and Thailand for sure. Montenegro and Malaysia are cool too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqaPm5cUzdI
27. "But because the Belt and Road was so ill-conceived, this warm fuzzy feeling always had an expiration date. Now that the Belt and Road has basically failed, and the cash faucet has been shut off, delight at China’s seeming largesse is clearly going to be replaced with resentment and distrust. Acting like a mafia loanshark is not generally a way to win friends and influence people.
Note that although this is a debt trap, it isn’t really a case of “debt-trap diplomacy”, as some people accuse. Debt-trap diplomacy is where you get a country to owe you money, and you force it to make geopolitical concessions in exchange for loan forbearance. China doesn’t appear to be doing that; instead it appears to simply be walking away with as much of the money as it can, and thumbing its nose as it walks away, and leaving developing countries bitter and resentful.
That’s just a mind-bogglingly bad long-term strategy for achieving global leadership. China’s leaders tout their country as the leader of the Global South, but they’re raiding developing countries like their own personal piggy bank.
Throughout the whole saga of the Belt and Road, China’s government treated countries like Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Zambia like Chinese provinces — assuming they could and would strongarm their populations into supporting new infrastructure, prioritizing economic throughput over efficiency and profitability, and counting on those other countries to take the hit when the projects went…er…south."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-chinas-debt-traps-actually-work
28. Optimistic view of SaaS. Mr Lemkin is a smart dude and hope he is right.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4FoMoUzW8w
29. "I wanted to dig into Anduril’s M&A activity specifically because it stands out as a unique company-building strategy for such a young startup. After conversations with the team and dozens of hours of research, Anduril’s acquisitions have illuminated what makes Anduril tick, and why I think it has a real shot at becoming a sixth Defense Prime alongside Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, and General Dynamics.
Every successful company has a “thing.” Of all of the many things they do, there’s one that’s the secret sauce, the thing they do better than anyone else. SpaceX can get kilograms to orbit more cheaply than anyone else. Meta connects people. Google dominates search. ByteDance does addictive algorithmic feeds. Amazon is a logistics powerhouse. Microsoft sells software to enterprises.
Anduril’s “thing” isn’t any of its particular products, or even its Lattice OS; its thing is its ability to sell modern defense capabilities into the DoD."
https://www.notboring.co/p/anduril-acquiring-prime
30. "The attitude in Kyiv is that there is no choice but to find companies to help them do it themselves.
“Priority number one is that Ukraine will be self-reliant because even if the war finishes today, Ukraine will be a shield for Europe against future attempts by Russia,” to grab territory or destabilize Europe, said Verkhniatskyi from COSA Intelligence Solutions. “It’s just going to happen. The Russians are just simply going to be Russians forever.”
31. Damn good discussion on AI and VC. Worth listening to.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqfzn53dKhc
32. "My broad thesis on the consumer ecosystem (including both B2C and B2B businesses) is that the consumer experience follows a steady arc toward 1) more convenient, 2) more affordable, and 3) more enjoyable, with technology acting as the force bending the arc. More enjoyable often means more personalized—more customized to our distinct wants and needs.
Hyper-personalization is one of the largest decades-long shifts. We see it appear in culture, where our expectations have become personalization; we’ve gotten spoiled. And we see enabling technologies like AI arising to make new degrees of customization possible. Soon, everyone should get their own personalized healthcare plan; their own personalized learning path; their own personalized shopping recommendations.
If the 20th Century was about mass consumption, the 21st Century is about “bespoke consumption.”
https://www.digitalnative.tech/p/the-hyper-personalization-of-everything
33. "And the United States should be prepared to fight for Taiwan. Should the island fall to China, America’s most potent geopolitical rival will have gained the world’s 21st-largest economy, roughly equivalent to Switzerland’s or Poland’s. China would also gain a dense clot of advanced technology, particularly in the area of computer chips. A key piece of the so-called first island chain in the Pacific would be in hostile hands, endangering the sea lanes of our closest Pacific allies, particularly Japan.
American credibility would take a brutal blow, and our allies would have to wonder whether they should accommodate China or resort to the development of their own nuclear arsenals to substitute for the guarantees of an unreliable superpower.
And not least important: Another liberal democratic state would be snuffed out, in a world in which free government, liberty, and rule of law are already under pressure."
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/10/big-lie-about-taiwan/675523/
34. Hmmm......5 for 5 here. ;) No wonder no one likes VCs.
https://sifted.eu/articles/liars-hypocrites-egoists-we-are-vcs
35. "For founders, investors, and others who care about tech, my message is simple: it’s time to pay attention to San Francisco again.
In contrast to the doom-and-gloom of the mainstream media, startup and investor activity is picking up dramatically in both San Francisco and Silicon Valley. While we still haven’t hit the bottom in terms of tech layoffs or startups reaching the end of their runway — and San Francisco itself has an incredibly difficult journey ahead of it — the phoenix is beginning to rise from the ashes.
The city of San Francisco is different from before. SoMa is no longer ground zero for everything in tech. Many startups and VCs have moved to other neighborhoods, like the Mission, Potrero, the Presidio and Hayes Valley (though for the love of god, please stop trying to rename it “Cerebral Valley”).
If you’re a Canadian VC, it’s once again time to get out of Canada. If you’re a Canadian founder, you should probably do the same. Founders and investors alike need to benchmark themselves against the best in the world, and the San Francisco Bay Area is reclaiming its crown."
https://chrisneumann.com/blog/sf-is-back
36. "What stands out when reviewing these three very different regimes is how the US has effectively supported startups and innovation over every period, irrespective of interest rates. The US maximized the potential of multiple productive bubbles since 1995, followed by significant public spending to create a platform for future innovators.
Presently, there are indications of direct government intervention under a new industrial policy, aimed at fostering innovation for long-term objectives such as addressing climate change, reducing trade dependence on China, and transitioning away from fossil fuels. As if the US innovation engine can never be stopped!"
https://www.europeanstraits.com/p/what-high-interest-rates-do-to-startups