Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Sept 4th, 2022
“Our dilemma is that we hate change and love it at the same time; what we really want is for things to remain the same but get better.” -Sydney J. Harris
"Fear is a costly source of fuel.
We tell ourselves we are keeping ourselves safe by being mindful of our fears. I often hear from clients, “If I keep the thing I am afraid of in front of me, I can be sure of avoiding it.”
In my experience, this is a bit like driving a race car staring at the wall. If you talk with a racecar driver, they will tell you, “If you look at the wall, you will hit the wall.”
https://www.mattmunson.me/fear
2. "Moscow appears to wish to incorporate seized territory into Russia, for which they are preparing some dubious procedures that will impress nobody but themselves. Deep down for Moscow the war may now be all about denying NATO the satisfaction of a Ukrainian victory and saving Putin’s face. There is nonetheless something increasingly desperate about Russian rhetoric and behaviour.
The Russian military position is deteriorating and the West’s backing for Ukraine has yet to slacken. The trends therefore favour Ukraine. At some Putin and his cronies will have to work out how long they can continue to pretend that they have a credible path to victory."
https://samf.substack.com/p/winning-through-attrition
3. I am a proponent of remote work btw: but there are advantages to being in office too.
"Remote work for young people is often … a bad idea. The office is where you build relationships and find mentors. And mentors are the people who become emotionally invested in your success. That same Harvard study of call center workers found that, despite greater productivity, working from home decreased the probability of getting a promotion by 12%.
Another study found that people who work from home are 38% less likely to receive a bonus. There are usually several people qualified for each promotion. The job will typically go to the person who has the best relationship with the decider. And relationships are a function of proximity. If this sounds unfair, and just bullshit facetime … trust your instincts. The corporate world and small injustices will be synonyms for a long time. This isn’t to say young people shouldn’t have opportunities for remote work. However, the conversation coming is … “OK, but you will make less money.” In some cases, it may be worth it. Some.
If you’re an employer, the office is your primary tool for facilitating culture.
In contrast, for those of you starting your career — before you collect dogs and spouses, find an employer who offers an increasingly important benefit, an office. My time at UCLA was rewarding. But my first job, at Morgan Stanley, was more educational.
In two years I found a mentor who was irrationally passionate about my success, learned (sort of) how to read a room, navigated around a senior exec who kept asking me out (yes, this happens to men), and learned how to succeed, or not, in a society called the workplace. If you do not enter the physical workplace early, you’ll miss opportunities and stressors that will make you stronger and more capable."
https://www.profgalloway.com/work-from-office
4. "The Russian military has been on the defensive and been bleeding terribly—literally and metaphorically. Yet, the Russian regime keeps increasing the political objectives of the war. Simply put, as the Russian capabilities decrease, its objectives increase.
Here we can learn from history. This is what Kaiser Wilhelm did during World War I. His military capabilities were shrinking, and the German people knew about it and were forced to bear additional burdens so war resources could keep coming. So the kaiser presented the troubles caused by the war as an investment: The more you sacrifice, dear German people, the more you will get in the end.
In other words, to keep the Germans happy, he kept promising more. It was a domestic political gamble. And it worked for a few years, but, eventually, the German people revolted, and the German Revolution of 1918 ended his rule."
https://shaykhatiri.substack.com/p/the-russian-revolution
5. "An intelligent global energy policy with nuclear power as a foundation can provide abundance to all humanity with minimal impact on the environment. Without hyperbole, there is no path to a decarbonized economy that avoids mass starvation and economic collapse without nuclear power, and the hardest opponents of the technology know it.
As uncomfortable a thought as it is, the history of the funding, propaganda, and influence around the anti-nuclear sentiment was born out of a non-fringe belief that the preferred solution to the population “problem” was not more abundant energy to support such growth, but rather, fewer people to compete for available resources. Proselytizing nuclear waste as a meaningful issue became a convenient, palatable vehicle used to veer the discourse until it took hold generally. Today, this is done either by those who are victims of such propaganda or are knowing architects of it."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/malthusian-malarkey
6. "That discipline teaches you things about your mind, and all this is really important. I think it's no different from jumping in ice cold water. It stresses your mind out and you have to slow it down. You have to actively slow down and control those things.
Food can be an addiction. Sugar is an addiction. Our phone is an addiction. All these things need to be cleansed out of your life in some way—it helps your mind get stronger and it helps you become stronger as a person. It helps you help other people; it helps you become more mindful of what's going on for others.
You can help other people who are struggling with things, and you become aware and get epiphanies about while you're going through these processes for yourself. That should be number one importance for people: One’s own personal health ahead of everything."
https://www.gq.com/story/real-life-diet-kelly-slater
7. I really have to watch this movie. Good interview with Dakota Beavers who plays Taab.
"If anybody can take any advice from Taab, you don't have to be a jerk to be tough. You can be kind. You can love your neighbor. You can love your family, and you can still be a warrior. You don’t have to cut your heart off."
https://www.gq.com/story/prey-dakota-beavers
8. Expanding and paring back. This is a process that never ends.
"We’re all involved in this that we probably shouldn’t be. At a point in the past, you signed up for something that you thought was a good idea at the time. It could be a volunteer position or group that you’re a part of. It could be a business venture or a part-time job. It could be a hobby or some other ongoing commitment.
The only reason that you’re still doing it is because you made a decision a several months or years back that it was a good idea. You would never sign-up for it again today, but haven’t stopped doing whatever it is because you perceive that the pain of maintaining the status quo is less than the pain of making a change."
https://www.mattpaulson.com/2014/11/why-you-should-say-no-to-side-projects
9. "But recently, as the dust has settled a bit, I am seeing the best entrepreneurs realize that now is the time to play offense. The “play offense” playbook is well known to many, but hard to execute during a downturn.
Funds have raised an enormous amount of capital in the last two years. Never before in the history of entrepreneurship has there been this extraordinary amount of committed capital designated to invest in startups. If you have built a good business with promising prospects, you can stand out from the crowd far more easily today than ever before. Yes, your valuation may be 20–40% lower than you had hoped, but you can still raise plenty of money to buttress your balance sheet and execute more vigorously on steps 1–5 of the “play offense” playbook outlined above."
https://medium.com/@bussgang/now-is-the-time-to-play-offense-4a5e6d0e9f1a
10. "Although we live in an extremely prosperous world, the simple fact is that most people are still struggling financially. They’re either working two jobs just to make ends meet, or have been hit so harshly by inflation that they can now barely afford the new cost of living.
When a person is living in survival mode, they don’t have time to wonder if the narrative they’re being fed is true, or to spend time trying to change the world around them—their mental energy is dedicated to survival alone. Scientific studies show that living in poverty or financial stress affects the mind so heavily that it can even lower one’s IQ by 13 points.
Basically, when you’re struggling, your mind simply doesn’t work as it should. And to me, that’s why so much of the deceit in our world is allowed to exist. Because critical thinking and questioning require a lot of brainpower.
To me, it isn’t a conspiracy that people are kept broke, dumb, and sick. It’s a tactic that’s been used for thousands of years to deflect people’s attention away from the grand machinations that keep the world exactly as it is, to benefit the few at the very top."
https://abundantia.substack.com/p/apes-together-strong
11. YES! Slava Ukraini!
"Forced to fight front and rear, distracted and attacked on all sides, Russian morale will continue to deteriorate. When Russia’s logistical lines are stretched to breaking point and combat effectiveness has reached its nadir, Ukraine will unleash hardy offensives. The first blow may come in Kherson, or it may fall elsewhere, but the offensive will come.
Russian combat forces will be attacked by units of the Ukrainian military, and Russian support and logistical units will be besieged by partisans. Donetsk and Luhansk will be liberated, and Russia will be driven to the border – just as they were driven back from Kyiv.
This war will not end soon. Russian and Ukrainian losses will continue. And make no mistake – Putin will not suddenly realize the error of his ways and pursue peace. He must be defeated on the battlefield.
And right now, that defeat is more possible than ever."
12. Good perspective on SF Bay Area ie. Silicon Valley: its a bit underwhelming.
"Don’t get me wrong, the climate is great (and that’s the only thing Californians will tell you for a reason why they’re there), and although I miss the spring blossoms and deep red leaves in the fall, there’s nothing wrong with redwood trees everywhere.
But as a naive lad coming into Tech Mecca, I was fucking expecting Blade Runner’s dystopian Los Angeles. I mean, where are all the tech integrations with the infrastructure? Maglev train? Smart sentient cities? Robots delivering mails? Ok, there are cars strapped with lidars everywhere to see, but they have nothing to do with the general public, do they? A bit dystopian is Silicon Valley, sure, but not at all high tech. It feels just like New Mexico with Safeways and many more strip malls."
https://pancy.medium.com/dont-go-to-the-bay-area-53dfe1a9d59c
13. "Knowledge work can be done from anywhere but rarely in a vacuum. We all need regular inspiration, feedback, and social interaction. One part is individual work, as deep as possible, and the other is the rub and constructive input from select parts of the rest of the world.
So my response to Malcolm Gladwell perspective is:
We need spaces (not necessarily offices) for serendipitous and intentional meetings with people within and outside our fields of interest and competence but we also need to carve out time and attention to channel our creative energy into deep work (not necessarily from home) that can make a real impact."
https://fewerbetterthings.substack.com/p/hybrid-work-outside-home-and-office
14. B2b Software sales basics.
https://tomtunguz.com/how-to-structure-land-and-expand-ae/
15. Ignoring the man's (Barbaric Disciple aka Resavager) angry and racist vitriol (thus not posting the link but the actual good and cogent passage). His message otherwise is quite right.
"His argument was the pathfinders movement west was driven by a desire to escape entrenched bureaucracy in the east towards greater opportunity and freedom in the west. This he called democracy, but I don’t agree with this. We feel the stifling nature of the East throughout America today, now that the frontier has been closed. These men just sought freedom and power. They were after what JFK called the “vigorous and adventurous life.” Our people survived in early colonial America by learning how to survive and thrive in nature again. They learned self-reliance and a freedom far greater than what we pass as freedom today.
You had to find a way to live off the land because there was no way to completely prepare yourself for the journey west. Our ancestors were in every way to superior men and women to the stock we have today. If we don’t find a way to collectively bring back this frontier power, nature will favor some better people in the future. It’s the pathfinder, not the statesman, that’s the true symbol of the American. What the leftist tries desperately to escape from is the reality of nature. They’re trying to escape it at all costs. To acknowledge nature is to acknowledge their own shortcomings and unnatural nature.
What I seek is a pathfinder and cowboy nationalism. It is these pioneers our men should look to emulate. American ingenuity and excellence came from the example set by these men. Men who were thrown back into nature and forced once again, to master their conditions. We are in the same position they once were. Our people have been dispossessed and removed from power. It must be reconquered by new pathfinders and cowboys. The parasites must be removed from power and only men of power can do this."
16. Yikes....crime does not pay it seems.
"Arabi, Shokouhi, and Taneja now face up to 20 years in prison and forfeiture of all property acquired from their corporate fraud scheme. Arabi’s sister, Sheida Alan, has also been charged with conspiracy to commit fraud. She was arrested in Canada and the Justice Department plans to extradite her to the US to face trial."
https://www.pcmag.com/news/qualcomm-duped-into-buying-startup-secretly-founded-by-company-exec
17. Writer is an ultra right wing shill & a--hole but I share his concerns on woke Blackrock & the elitist WEF Davos crowd.
"For the uninitiated: Blackrock is the chief promulgator of the environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) movement in the financial world. If the World Economic Forum is the think tank and narrative shop of the global elite, Blackrock is the asset manager of this class. Notably, the two parties share the same goal in implementing the enviro authoritarianism scam popularized by WEF founder Klaus Schwab, which they refer to as “stakeholder capitalism.” Essentially, Blackrock pretends to care about the environment, but the purpose of the ESG charade is to grow an anti-competitive economic mafia, and make it very difficult for financial institutions to move their money around in the economy without pledging an oath of fealty to Blackrock’s pseudo advocacy. If you don’t play Blackrock’s game, well, you will own nothing and you will be happy, as the saying goes.
Not being ESG compliant on Wall St is a death sentence for firms, so companies make sure to play along with Blackrock’s game and pretend that they too truly care about the environmental statist agenda. It’s one giant charade to make sure the same handful of firms stay atop the hierarchy."
https://dossier.substack.com/p/the-blackrock-biden-admin-behemoth
18. Very important discussion on the future of America, the cultural discourse right now. End of incompetent elites in America and why the CCP is the enemy of the west.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-xfqtkO6HQU
19. A great discussion by one of the best writers and thinkers of global macroeconomic trends. Lynn Alden.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CPCnbK96oNw
20. The new emerging centers for expats. Only surprise is Rio de Janeiro. It's a very cool and beautiful city but it's dangerous (crime wise).
https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/expats-flocking-to-host-of-new-cities-4896937
21. "The first thing Wuhan’s coronavirus made clear was decades of globalist policy had destroyed America’s ability to provide its own furniture, let alone sustain a technologically-advanced economy without the rare metal mining, processing, and manufacturing that took place almost entirely in autocratic prison states. Cheap global trade was no mere perk of contemporary life, it was our oxygen.
Now, a couple years into the realization, all eyes are on Taiwan. This is not only because Taiwan is a free country at risk of being swallowed by the Chinese mainland, which I’m sure everyone will feel very bad about for the couple weeks following Xi’s invasion, but because Taiwan produces nearly all the world’s advanced microchips, the first and most important building blocks of our entire technological reality.
Fortunately, politicians across the ideological spectrum have finally realized U.S. resource insecurity is a problem, and no one is mocking “bring the jobs home” hicks today. Unfortunately, the single tool in our tool chest continues to be ‘spending absolute shit tons of money and hoping things happen.’
https://www.piratewires.com/p/american-hustle-microchip-edition
22. Net net: we are at war on so many different vectors that its hard for most people (myself included) to really understand.
"So, if you don’t have the imaginal tools to understand MAGA, Q-Anon and the various conspiracy theories that underpin the Pro-Trump view of the world, start with Izabella Kaminska’s (former FT Alphaville Editor), video, which offers a deep dive into what today’s gamified and “game jacked” realpolitik conspiracy theory landscape.
She points out that the current situation sounds similar to Poland's inter-war period. Józef Klemens Piłsudski was the leader of Poland’s resistance and opposition. He cut deals with everybody. It didn’t matter who won as far as he was concerned. He got all sides to agree to let Poland come back to life as a nation-state, whoever won. These days incredibly bright, efficient and well-armed former US military members seem to be leaning toward Pilsudski’s position, as Kaminska explains. Geopolitics is dark and messy stuff. Welcome to the realpolitik of our times."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/clash-of-civilizations
23. "The fact is that in some ways we still live in the world that was conceived in the Middle Ages. According to Eco, we have inherited most of our problems from this era. This is when the Western legacy emerged in the form of merchant cities, a capitalistic economy along with banks, checks, and double-entry bookkeeping.
“In the Middle Ages, we witness the rise of modern armies, of the modern concept of the national state, as well as the idea of the supernatural federation (under the banner of a German Emperor elected by a Diet that functioned like an electoral convention); the struggle between the poor and the rich, the concept of heresy or ideological deviation, even our contemporary notion of love as a devastating happy happiness.”
Money is a medium and also information. Bitcoin and Ethereum are new credibly neutral mediums that could settle trade globally without local authorities doing anything about it except for banning their subjects from using them.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are the New Empires of The Cloud - universalist forces that fundamentally change the pattern of human coordination. The future will tell us if these universalist forces will drain funds Romewards just like the pope did in the Middle Ages (crypto becoming the new Rome).
To make sense of the world today, observe the technology-enabled power struggle of universalism and particularism unfolding. Native digital money is unbundling the concept of a ruler’s sovereignty over many things. Today, the two authorities overlap, but ultimately, structural change to patterns of human coordination cannot be resisted."
https://wrongalot.substack.com/p/empire-of-the-clouds
24. An excellent discussion on macroeconomic climate and why China is shooting itself in its foot (just like the USA is doing but in a different way).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVT8i1jkBY4
25. Slava Ukraini.
"After half-a-day of driving, we finally arrived at the Polish border. It was clear that more people were entering Ukraine than leaving it—a good sign that some are able to return home despite the country still fighting a vicious war. We even had time to help some Red Cross workers set up a tent to receive refugees fleeing the fighting in the east of the country.
What struck us, as we waited for our driver to pick us up at the border, was the culture of volunteerism that permeated this war. Even though they know there was a long road ahead, morale seemed high, at least for the moment. War upends daily life. Drivers, snipers, logisticians – everyone pitched in to do their part for the war.
The lesson of Ukraine is clear: Wars are no longer fought solely between regular armies."
https://www.sofmag.com/in-ukraine-two-us-army-veterans-see-the-new-face-of-war
26. I hate driving personally. Thank goodness for Uber/Lyft.
"Americans have a 1 in 63 chance of getting into a car accident, one crash happens every six minutes. There’s nothing that most of us can do about this reality except drive defensively and keep our loved ones in the car as infrequently as possible. But I long for the day when either I can live like a real Nigerian prince and have someone do my driving-bound tasks for me, or until fully autonomous vehicles become a real, common thing. Whichever comes first."
https://sotonye.substack.com/p/the-case-for-literally-never-driving
27. "In summary, Ukraine looks like ultimately emerging victorious from this conflict, and strong and better able to defend itself as a result. NATO and Western Liberal Market Democracy likely will be energised, with new focus.
But the outlook for Russia is nothing but grim. It will remain an international pariah, subject to sanctions and with its economy in decline, and on the losing end of an arms face with the West, which will diminish its military and international prowess. Putin has accelerated Russia’s decline as a result of this war. Let’s see how long Russians come to this realisation and opt for regime change at home."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/big-picture-take-outs-from-putins
28. This is the fundraising process blog post I wanted to write. (but never got around to, but Chris did). Recommend for all startup founders who want to go down the VC route.
https://chrisneumann.com/blog/high-velocity-fundraising
29. This is a fun learning experience from a professional crypto trader. From dishwasher to 9 figure whale.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elTUJO7Blkc
30. Neat new VC fund focussed around helping founders with storytelling.
31. Scratching my head over this one. A16Z is crazy or crazy like the fox. I guess we will find out soon enough.
When I asked rival investors whether they kicked the tires on Flow, I received answers like “hahaha” and “No — it’s good to know there’s still a place for utter insanity though.”
"As a sort of scholar of Andreessen Horowitz thinking, I find the troll theory of the case fairly compelling. This whole saga has been great strategic positioning for the firm. What Andreessen Horowitz has always understood better than anyone else is that the main audience for their marketing is founders. So even if the masses find investing in Neumann distasteful, this sends a clear message to prospective founders that a16z wants to back the bold. And founders are the ones who can generate the billions in returns for Andreessen Horowitz that the firm needs to be successful.
This is the contrarianism that is so often talked about.
(Of course, it is also a sort of amoral nihilism.)
One Silicon Valley insider observed, “It sends an f-you message to the press — your reporting didn’t really matter and a message to founders that they’ll always be supported.”
https://www.newcomer.co/p/can-a-zebra-change-its-stripes
32. I appreciate the sarcasm here.
"People sometimes say that Silicon Valley is too obsessed with ‘saving the world,’ but as I write this from my soulless and friendless apartment, I for one am grateful for firms like a16z. It takes a great deal of courage and bravery to write your biggest check ever to a disgraced founder whom many believe to be a charlatan because you care that deeply about uplifting the lonely masses and solving America’s housing crisis.
Some might say this is a deluded fantasy and that $350 million could be better spent on affordable housing, housing justice groups, or a founder who did not previously blow up a multibillion-dollar company. These people lack vision. Our nation has a housing crisis and it requires an Adam Neumann-sized solution. As Andreessen says, “Only projects with such lofty goals have a chance at changing the world.”
https://oversharing.substack.com/p/marc-andreessen-goes-with-the-flow
33. The case for Crypto & Web 3, it's a very good discussion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXHITeaGB8Q
34. Shaq is a good dude. A very generous man & model.
35. We need to rebuild the US industrial base asap!
36. "Europe has been so focused on climate change and reducing emissions that now with the war in Ukraine and gas from Russia has been reduced, Europe is facing an energy crisis.
If only more nuclear reactors had been built instead of unreliable wind and solar power...But no, the climate change fanatics did not like the sound of that!
So now we are facing an energy crisis instead."
https://petersweden.substack.com/p/germany-energy-rationing
37. This is grim reading. China & CCP are a clear and present threat to US and liberal West.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Fritz844/status/1560088576875851776
38. The Semiconductor giant no one knows about. ASML.
https://twitter.com/TrungTPhan/status/1560290568499892224
39. Good! Slava Ukraini!
"Speaking from the presidential offices in Kyiv, Podolyak said: “Our strategy is to destroy the logistics, the supply lines and the ammunition depots and other objects of military infrastructure. It’s creating a chaos within their own forces.”
40. "Again, for me personally? I don’t buy it. I wouldn’t have made this bet. But I try to avoid raining on anyones hustle (though sometimes it’s hustle and sometimes it’s A hustle.) I know the housing market is incredibly riddled with problems and I would love to see it improved.
The idealistic dreamer in me remembers the spiritual experiences I’ve had walking through the ethereal halls of the Disney kingdoms. I would love to see a revolutionary new way of living and connecting with our community. So I wish them the best, and pray they do as little harm to the little guys and gals.
One parting thought from me. I think overall we could do a better job of building companies that meet reality between the atoms and the bits. There are plenty of problems in the physical world that could benefit from digital solutions.
Software is eating the world. But every once in a while some of the people cooking it feel like a millennial hipster who googled "ancient chinese recipe" and are doing their best with what they have in their Brooklyn apartment. And somehow Doritos made it into the meal.
Instead? We could do a better job of understanding the physical world we want to impact before diving in with a “revolutionary” solution. When I look at the “tech-enabled” businesses tackling the real world there are definitely some phenomenal and exciting solutions.
But there are a lot of “slap some software on it” solutions. When they represent a fundamental misunderstanding of the “state of the state” you’ll often not only make bad solutions but hurt a lot of people in the process."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/the-rise-of-the-cash-man
41. More on Zeihan's view of deglobalization. Always interesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRT7P-VKM0k
42. One of the best analysis of macro economic environment and history. Lyn Alden is one of the best observers out there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XaHuwUDd1C8
43. A dangerous game being played by Turkey.
"So, Turkey is both up in Svalbard and down in Cyprus. It is working with Russia in its efforts to secure greater control over assets on the ground in both places. Russia too sees an energy/resource supply chain that runs through the Arctic and one that runs through the Eastern Mediterranean.
But, this is not only about extraction. It is about power projection. Turkey still dreams of being a great regional power again, as it was during the Ottoman Empire period. Turkey knows that all the nations in the Eastern Mediterranean are jockeying for access to and control over the gas fields to the south - Egypt, Greece, Israel, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, Italy, and Libya. It’s a long list. They’ll need help.
They clearly think Russia will help more than NATO will if it comes to a fight. So, best to align with Russia across the board, from the Artic to Africa. Notice that Turkey is also restoring diplomatic ties with Israel. This matters because Israeli firms control the production rights for much of the Cypriot gas fields.
Then there is China. Turkey is aligning with China too. NATO has repeatedly declared that China is a serious and growing threat. But, China sees Turkey as a partner that will help in the Middle East, the Mediterranean and the Arctic as well. If Turkey can be persuaded to back away from their support of the Uighurs, that would be advantageous to Beijing as well.
The landscape in Svalbard is realpolitik. It would behoove investors and observers to pay closer attention to these seemingly unrelated and unimportant islands like Svalbard and Cyprus because whatever we may mean by geopolitics, this is where it’s unfolding as fast as the weather changes."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/cold-turkey
44. Wow, big move for YC. I'm so glad I'm not in the accelerator game anymore. Competition is crazy.
Garry is amazing and the right person for running YC & taking them to next level.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkonrad/2022/08/29/y-combinator-names-garry-tan-as-next-president
45. This is a good overview of what’s happening in Ukraine. Net net: by whatever measure Russia is losing & in bad shape.
This is from a geopolitical analyst who was negative on Ukraine's chances in the long run until recently. So very pleased to hear.
Slava Ukraini!