Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads September 17th, 2023
“The greater the obstacle, the more glory in overcoming it.” – Molière
"The optimal conditions for some ambitious founders may be at odds with what the venture business model requires. That’s not a judgement on the potential scale of the business or the capabilities of the founder; rather, it’s an acknowledgment that the venture model isn’t a great fit for many founders- maybe even the majority of those that raise it.
As the two examples above suggest, there’s a growing wave of founders who are choosing to defer or avoid adding venture risk to their businesses. I think we will see a lot more experienced and capable founders doing the same.
Rather than continuing to hammer on the question of whether a business is or isn’t venture scale, we might be better served asking whether a company and its team are right for venture risk. The likelihood of venture scale is negligible, but the reality of venture risk is universally present once the wire hits."
https://medium.com/@bryce/risky-business-venture-scale-vs-venture-risk-9593cf5ce66c
2. "Given Blumhoue’s focus on horror movies, it’s only fitting to think of how terrifying it would be for Big VC if the low-budget startup goes mainstream…"
https://medium.com/@bryce/the-low-budget-startup-f7d9ed7f139a
3. Vertical media is where it’s at. Everyone needs to be a media co.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1jI11ZJSto
4. I love what this man is doing for the book industry. I love Barnes & Nobles now.
"Daunt was a respected independent bookseller in London before he found himself running chains in both the U.K. and U.S. He was exactly the sort of person who could make Barnes & Noble interesting.
His plan to save the company and its bookstores is to combine the power of a big chain with the pleasure of a beloved indie. By shifting control of the process to individual store managers across the country, Daunt is giving local booksellers permission to do things they were never able to do before.
They have discretion over purchasing, placement and even pricing. He wants Barnes & Noble locations to feel welcoming but not overwhelming—a chain store should be more inviting and less intimidating than a truly independent shop—and that means he needs the people who run them to make sensible decisions for their markets. “It’s only inexcusable if it’s not interesting,” he said.
Daunt, 59, speaks quietly, as if he were in a library, but the insight at the heart of his management philosophy is worth screaming from the rooftops: find people who are passionate about books and let them sell books as they see fit. This sounds rather obvious when he says it. But entrusting a chain to someone who not long ago was running a posh store in Central London was a radical act of corporate desperation.
“I think it had to almost die before anyone was prepared to risk that,” Daunt said as we strolled around the Barnes & Noble on the Upper West Side. “It’s no coincidence that I took over Waterstones when it died and I took over this place when it was barely breathing.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/barnes-noble-bookstores-james-daunt-c1afc06b
5. "I am willing to admit that the creation of a completely digitised currency system can bring efficiency, homogeneity, and unity to a society, just like the ban liang did for the Qin Empire. But it also comes with many downsides.
It overwhelmingly stifles the agency and diversity of how citizens choose to trade on their own terms. It inevitably funnels an increasingly larger percentage of the value an individual possesses into the banking sector, consolidating more wealth into the hands of a few. It allows our overlords to tax us via inflation even more easily than they can already. And most disturbingly, it makes money—an essential tool for survival in the modern world—a tool to further impose control on a population by our governments."
https://abundantia.substack.com/p/illegal-money
6. "The notion of a Zero-Billion Dollar Market is that it’s something that you can see as an entrepreneur, but no one else believes. As we’ve talked about before, being consensus and correct is wonderful in many parts of life, but not in entrepreneurship.
If you’re trying to create something new and valuable then it’s generally down the less traveled path, against the grain, and certainly not wildly obvious to others. Value is located when you’re both non-consensus, or contrarian, and also correct."
https://ideas.scotthartley.com/p/zero-billion-dollar-markets
7. "Choices in foreign policy are never simple and are always sub-optimal. The choice faced now is whether to continue to support Ukraine fighting a messy, tragic war, which it may take time to win, or to let it carry on alone, with the prospect of an even more tragic conclusion from which the Western Alliance, let alone Ukraine, might never recover.
As Western countries are not actually doing the fighting and have the resources to sustain Ukraine in its struggle, in the end this is not that difficult a choice to make."
https://samf.substack.com/p/american-grand-strategy-realism-and
8. "The lesson here is pretty simple: If you’re going to commit a multi-million dollar fraud, don’t get caught… and maybe start a little smaller; a whole airport is a hell of a thing to try and blag. But, as the famous saying goes, God loves a trier."
https://www.dmarge.com/how-a-nigerian-fraudster-sold-a-fake-airport-to-japan-for-375-million
9. This guy is 89 years old but he looks several decades younger. Strong of body and mind and bank balance: Ed Thorp. So much to learn here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNvz91Jyzbg
10. "When Cucinelli saw his father's "teary eyes," he decided that the objective of his life would be to give those with whom he worked a moral and economic dignity.
As a result, the fashion mogul has been preaching a new business approach called "Humanistic Capitalism," in which money is seen as a tool to improve the human condition. Services, schools, places of worship, and cultural heritage require capital, but they empower the community.
"I believe in capitalism," Cucinelli says. "I need to make a profit, but I would like to do it with ethics, dignity, morals. It's my dream."
https://theprofile.substack.com/p/the-profile-classic-the-philosopher
11. Part 2: Lots of good frameworks and ideas. The power of long term thinking in investing. Ed Thorp is my new hero.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gs39QFYIbBY
12. "Today, with its booming technology sector and thriving tourism, Japan continues to be an exciting place to be. The Japanese stock market looks buoyant now and investors are increasingly drawn to the nation, captivated by its strides in chip technology and other innovations.
There is no doubt that Japan has undergone significant transformations over the past decades. Yet, for all its changes, my love for the country remains as steadfast as ever."
https://www.markmobius.com/news-events/japan-love-at-first-sight
13. Always inspiring and educational. David Senra. Kanye self belief with Kobe Bryant work ethic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJYeSTvV5es
14. "Looking at where the offensive stands today, Ukraine’s decision to attrit Russian forces via fires and advance incrementally with small units played to its strengths. This is a grueling fight. The combat power and reserves available to both sides will play a significant role in determining the outcome. Ukraine’s offensive neither is over, nor has it failed. Ukraine’s prospects depend on how well Western countries resource the Ukrainian war effort into the fall, replace lost equipment, and provide the necessary enablers — above all, artillery ammunition.
Ultimately, in planning for their support, Western countries must also think beyond the offensive, rather than taking a wait and see approach. This includes learning lessons from this spring and summer to improve Ukraine’s chances in future offensives. Western efforts should be geared to the assumption that the war will continue well into next year, balancing long-term transition programs, such as the transfer of F-16s and scaled up unit training, with managing Ukraine’s more immediate needs.
The West ought to be introspective about missing important decision points, which had a profound impact on the course of the war, constraining everyone’s options later on. Decisions about future support should have been made well before this offensive even began, assuming that it was unlikely to end the war.
The recent anonymous criticism by officials spilling select narratives in the press, rather than fostering an open discussion about Ukraine’s challenges and successes, reveals enduring problems in this war effort: The first, is a lack of Western understanding of how Ukrainian forces fight. The second, which is closely related, is an insufficient Western presence on the ground to enable closer coordination or even the invaluable understanding that could be offered by battlefield observers.
Western capitals have sought to keep this Ukraine’s war, avoiding an in-country presence that includes contractor support or trainers. To be clear, there are Western contractors and companies operating independently in Ukraine, but this is not the same as a government sanctioned and supported effort. There is much more that could be done without becoming directly involved in fighting or deploying uniformed personnel on the ground.
The hitherto cautious approach has clear limits to its efficacy. Western support thus far has been sufficient to avert a Ukrainian defeat, and arguably has imposed a strategic defeat on Russia, but not enough to ensure a Ukrainian victory. Independent of the outcome of this offensive, Western countries need to be clear-eyed about the fact that this will be a long war. Taken together, Western industrial and military potential greatly exceeds Russia’s, but without the political will, potential alone will not translate into results."
15. "We can and should be aspire to be more like the 747 than the glass cannon. We are entirely capable of enduring, adapting, and overcoming many scenarios and situations, especially in the modern day. Most of the threats and fears that consume us are social or self-esteem related rather than truly life threatening.
But the ancient fear centers of our brain can't always make the distinction.
But when you know you are resilient, fear loses its vice-like grip. You are no longer trapped in its prison. When you know you can handle most any circumstance, whether withering criticism, a bad breakup, an unfortunate firing—you are more willing to aim high and swing big.
You are not a glass cannon. You can take the hit and keep going. So go for it."
https://www.jasonshen.com/168/
16. "The Chinese will also have observed how outrageously and brutally the Russians can behave without Western forces intervening. This will inform the Chinese decision-making about the level of military aggression towards Taiwan before and during any conflict. However, given recent statements about the re-education of the Taiwanese after any Chinese invasion, we can assume that China will not recoil from the kind of brutality demonstrated by Russia against the Ukrainian people in the past 18 months.
Nearly 600 days since the beginning of the 2022 Russian invasion, we must assume that the Chinese government and their military has studied this war at least as closely as they studied the 1991 Gulf War. It is prudent that we assume they will learn and adapt, even if there are gaps or shortfalls in the institutional capacity for the Chinese to make a full range of transformations based on Ukraine.
Because their learning and adaptation does not have to make them perfect. They just need to be slightly better than their adversaries."
https://mickryan.substack.com/p/what-china-is-learning-from-the-ukraine
17. It's been fascinating watching the journey of the brilliant Liberman brothers. The guys are on the cutting edge of the tech business industry.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5zP75PCZ_P0&t=4272s
18. Burning Man is not for me but we live in a free country so do whatever. Don’t understand the hate for it.
"It’s perfectly fine to ignore stuff you don’t care about, or don’t like. There are any number of reasons Burning Man is probably not for you. It’s probably not for me, honestly, at this stage of my life. But the hatred for it? That has nothing to do with the event, which most of the haters online have never attended. It also has nothing to do with people at the event, who most of the haters have never met. No, this wasn’t about techies or hippies or woke idiots. This wasn’t about socialism, or God.
For the average hater, this was war with the demonic apparitions of their own self-doubt, and all their insecurities, on a public stage before an audience of millions. The “cringe social media influencers” were not at Burning Man, in other words. They were glued to their newsfeeds, inside, on a nice day. A little bit pathetic, if we’re being honest.
Now try to be less embarrassing, or at least have the decency to shut up and let people like shit."
https://www.piratewires.com/p/rage-against-the-wooden-man
19. "Argentina’s GDP graph cratering from the heights of one of the wealthiest nations on earth is one for the history books, and it has become a famous case study at this point of what not to do if a country likes economic growth and prosperity. Today we will go over some of the causes of the century long decline, and reasons why Argentina never fully goes bust compared to countries like Venezuela or Cuba."
https://www.bowtiedmara.io/p/argentinas-century-long-decline
20. "Today we dive into the fascinating story of one of the early flag planters of Argentina who even minted his own shitcoins, and the related campaign to conquer as must of the unclaimed deserted territory in the south as possible before Chile was able to lay a claim on most of Patagonia.
As you can see, planting flags and expanding territory was a bit more violent in those times."
https://www.bowtiedmara.io/p/argentinas-last-frontier-and-the
21. I think we are all rooting for Kleiner Perkins to make their comeback. One of the storied firms in SV, expousing the craftsman mentality.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRGp6npx0PI
22. "So you can see the changing contours of a new emerging order. With Beijing, Moscow and New Delhi leading the charge (and Brasilia and Pretoria as fellow travellers) an attempt is made to shift dependence on the West towards new power centres who can shape world events to their favour by collaborating. Again, the war in Ukraine is a case in point and Russia is a keen partner of team BRICS.
At best it is a mixed bunch with aspirations that are hard to materialize. BRICS is more of directional movement than a power block that is ready to dismantle the US-led world. But if Americans do vote to retreat there is an opportunity for this grouping to begin to start influencing that global order in a more serious way.
Much like BRICS itself that order is increasingly a fractured one where different power centres will strive to preserve their place in a decentralized and less global world."
https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/brics-time
23. "I would argue that the only thing that China has perhaps learned from Putin's wars on Ukraine has been that Fortress Russia economic settings have worked in that they have provided some durability to the Russian economy in the face of Western sanctions. And I think what we have seen in recent years is the adoption of Fortress China economic policy settings.
This has meant accelerating efforts at deleveraging - trying to let down bubbles in the real estate, shadow banking, et al sectors. And on the growth front, it means accepting a much lower growth target which the hope is that it ensures fewer balance sheet vulnerabilities going forward to Western sanctions when they inevitably come.
Xi is also building a nationalist economic narrative - a more socially inclusive, almost socialist agenda, "levelling down" almost to ensure the support of the mass of the population both while he has embarked on the concentration of power around himself but as the geopolitical outlook darkens. I assume herein if there is a trade off lower real GDP growth for geopolitical insulation/security that Xi assumes its more important to take the majority of the population with him rather than the elites and middle class who have done best from the globalisation trend over the past 30 years. This explains his attack on private education, corruption and the affordability of housing.
The combined impact of all the above has been a crisis of confidence in China both because of the slowdown in foreign investment but also the policy choices, and mistakes, being rolled out by Xi and his team."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/china-copies-fortress-economic-policy
24. So many ways to build an enduring VC firm. Lessons from General Catalyst.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HESSmrfCgF4
25. "I must now acknowledge that I was entirely mistaken. Not only has the VC industry suffered significant setbacks in recent times, but the surviving VC firms are those that have adhered closely to the original VC playbook.
A whole era of rapid growth and innovation has receded into the past—the metaphorical door closing on startups. Yet, ample space remains for excelling and prospering at doing capitalism, similar to the scenario in the 1970s, when trailblazers introduced us to novel business strategy tools and methodologies, as well as leveraged buyouts."
https://europeanstraits.substack.com/p/startups-the-door-is-closing
26. "World War 2 wasn’t just the thing that brought the United States all the way back from the Depression; it made the U.S. the center of global innovation for many decades to come.
That history is probably on China’s leaders’ minds as they contemplate starting a major great-power conflict. Of course there are other possible outcomes as well — Germany, Japan, Russia, and Britain didn’t benefit economically from the world wars, to say the least. But with their economy in the dumps and their technology under pressure from foreign restrictions, China’s leaders may see the potential upside of war mobilization as a benefit to add into their mental calculations.
Ultimately, I still think that war would be a very foolish choice for China — the risk of having its rise crushed by a global coalition, or being obliterated in a nuclear exchange, outweighs the modest gains from conquering pieces of Asia. China is already a very large country, with little need for additional territory or population; conquest and hegemony simply aren’t worth the risk.
But as leaders from Kaiser Wilhelm to Vladimir Putin have shown, national leaders are not always wise or risk-averse. And when the economic costs of war decrease and the potential upside increases, their natural overconfidence and aggression may gain the upper hand. Unfortunately, every economic factor I can think of seems to point to a major war being less risky for China on the margin compared to five or ten years ago. All I can say is that I hope cooler heads prevail and deterrence succeeds."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/chinas-slowdown-and-the-incentives
27. "A moat can be based on various factors, such as your tech, your network, your brand, oryour customer loyalty. A moat matters because it helps you generate more value for your stakeholders and reduces the risk of disruption or commoditization. And they usually grow stronger over time.
Building moats is easier said than done. In the early stages, moats are difficult or nearly impossible to demonstrate.
The strongest moats help ensure you have a business that sustains value over the long run, and honing in on these levers early on can help you focus your strategy. Moats often grow by just executing. They are compounding. So, ask yourself this: What is your compounding moat?"
https://www.yannickoswald.com/post/what-is-your-moat
28. "As one thoughtful Ukrainian colleague put it in a later discussion, they expected someone would ‘open the gates’ for them. Hence little effort was made to isolate the theater, cut ground lines of communication, or engage in other actions that I think analysts anticipated as part of the operation. Russian forces did not conduct a combined arms operation, but essentially drove in, initially trying to conduct ‘thunder runs’ along divergent axes of advance.
This takes us to why analysts rated Ukrainian chances as low. I think there were several reasons for this, but I would highlight that Ukraine did not appear to be preparing a defense against a full-scale invasion. Kyiv had taken steps in secret, but many of the preparations, from mobilization to deployments, were made last minute, and often from the bottom up."
https://samf.substack.com/p/an-interview-with-mike-kofman
29. "The reality is that the vast majority of businesses cannot possibly support the type of super-linear growth required to go from zero to $100m+ in annual revenue in 7-10 years. Marvin Liao of Diaspora Ventures noted that companies whose revenue grows linearly with the number of employees, like consulting firms, will never be able to achieve this. That doesn’t mean those aren’t incredible businesses — it just means that they’re not a fit for VC funding.
Unfortunately, many founders aren’t ready to hear this.
Between the deafening hype of VC in the media and the encouraging yet often misguided notion that all founders need to do is find “just one investor” who sees their vision, too many founders get caught up on an endless quest to find mythical investors that simply don’t exist."
https://chrisneumann.com/blog/vc-probably-isnt-right-for-you
30. "One question that I often get from founders — how did we feel after surviving Facebook? Waking up to news that Facebook is your newest competitor is a nightmare for almost every consumer founder, so I understand the curiosity.
The easy answer is we felt invincible coming to work everyday. We had survived our greatest threat.
We don’t have championships in tech, but if there is a championship to win as a consumer company, beating Facebook in your own market is the trophy you want to win."
https://jeffmorrisjr.substack.com/p/when-facebook-tried-to-kill-tinder
31. Learning about the craft of VC here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPUTL5NNQOE
32. Pretty solid discussion on how to build a podcast show. I love "Acquired."
Good guys those two.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixN-HR-aR8A&t=156s
33. Defensetech is here.
“Part of the movement is driven by an awareness of the Russian war in Ukraine, several VCs said, which has highlighted the role defense can play in protecting values of democracy.
You have an aggressor nation, taking land and causing death and destruction to civilians,” said Raj Shah, managing partner of Shield Capital, adding that tech workers “want to do something to help and they want to have meaning in their lives. And photo-sharing apps are only so important.”
As Lux co-founder Josh Wolfe said, “Do you want to build software that has people clicking on ads, or do you want to do things that have a lasting impact on the safety and security of the American people and helping to reduce human suffering around the world?”