Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads September 3rd, 2023
“Just when the caterpillar thought the world was ending, he turned into a butterfly.” —Proverb
"Last week, my parents were traveling through central Argentina- they informed me that everyone was begging for dollars, even for the smallest of transactions, at a rate of 530 pesos per dollar. 48hrs later, it soared to 600. On Wednesday, August 16th- the rate went parabolic, ripping to 770.
The dollar shortage grows. And Argentina, after decades of kicking the can, finally has to pay the piper, with QE Infinity here at last."
https://peruvianbull.substack.com/p/argentina-enters-the-endgame
2. "That said, building a business as an anon means you have the tabula rasa problem—you have no personal brand. No track record to rely on. You’re all “Work” and no “With Me” because there is no “Me.” At least not someone I can google around for references, results, and reviews.
So going anon as an entrepreneur is playing business on hard mode."
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/guest-post-how-to-persuade-the-anon
3. "The whole world is heading toward negative population growth. Immigration can help specific countries (especially the U.S.) maintain their populations for a while at the expense of others, but as the whole world converts to small families, even that stopgap solution will become less feasible.
This doesn’t mean that the human race will inevitably shrink to a small dying remnant of childless old people, huddling together for one last bit of companionship as nature or our AI descendants take over the planet. That scenario is science fiction, since it requires projecting very very far into the future. But the global fertility collapse will have big enough implications in the short term that it’s worth preparing for."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/humanity-is-going-to-shrink
4. This looks good. Rebel Moon!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_rHLOXbFZtI
5. More on Rebel Moon. I look forward to it in December.
https://www.netflix.com/tudum/articles/rebel-moon-release-date-photos#
6. "The lesson here is not that the Ukrainians failed to achieve what the Americans might have hoped to achieve in similar circumstances but that it was unrealistic to expect them to try. Having tried the Ukrainians reverted to smaller-scale operations that they understood better and knew how to execute. The challenge now is to coordinate these more effectively so that there can be more concentration of force and fire.
This is why the decision to send F-16s to Ukraine is important. It will certainly not help with the current offensive as it is unlikely that they will be flying much before next summer. But for that very reason they signal understanding of the potential length of this war. That is also why it is essential to step up production of ammunition and other war material. If it is likely that fighting will continue well into the next year then that should be reflected in Ukrainian strategy.
Grumbles about slow progress should not lead to pressure to push harder than is feasible or prudent during the current offensive. The aim should be to get in as good a position as possible for the coming stages of the war and also to think about how best to sustain and develop capabilities for these stages. Whether Ukrainian forces do well or badly in the coming months it will still be essential to think long-term."
https://samf.substack.com/p/ukraines-offensive-is-it-failing
7. Good overview of the Ukrainian efforts to stave off barbarian Russia & recover their territory.
https://mickryan.substack.com/p/an-update-on-ukraines-campaigns
8. “Let’s be honest: experts have admitted the slowness of the West in providing new packages of equipment decreased Ukraine’s chances for success here. So it is not only about Ukraine’s deficiencies in combined arms capabilities – that point is universally emphasized. It is also about the speed of decisions made and their implementation.
Again, I do not like to play the blame game, but let’s be frank: the net result is a result of many decisions, not only those made in Ukraine. In that sense, Ukraine alone cannot be blamed. So for me, the situation remains relatively stable. Luckily, along with people ready to compromise with Russia at the expense of Ukrainian citizens and territory, there are others who recognize the problem lies in the Biden administration’s half-hearted approach guided primarily by escalation management considerations, not Ukraine’s interests.
My advice is: let’s get prepared for a long war. There have been editorials in major Western media, in Europe and North America, about the need to prepare for a long conflict, increase industrial capacity, etc. So I am not excessively pessimistic about Ukraine’s long-term chances. But again, preserving Ukrainians’ will to fight is paramount.”
https://mickryan.substack.com/p/an-update-on-ukraines-campaigns
9. "So, where does this go wrong? Where can one get tripped up? For founders, they need a strong opinion as to why whatever they produce with seed proceeds will matter for that end market. That juice needs to be worth the squeeze, and there’s an argument to be made that these types of initiatives represent true venture bets going forward.
And for investors, they will need patience. A product-first worldview to investing requires *a lot* of patience and shared context with the entrepreneur(s) because conventional signals (like revenue, customers, usage metrics) may not rear their heads for a while.
Post a ZIRP-fueled funding bonanza, the irony of writing about how companies could and should raise more capital in 2023 is not lost on me. But to that point - perhaps the answer was “too much scale capital and not enough startup capital.”
https://aashay.substack.com/p/minimum-viable-raise
10. "Venture narrative whiplash is a phenomenon I am coining that birthed from the ever-evolving discourse on Twitter, and has transformed the venture capital landscape over the past decade more than any other phenomenon that I can identify.
True contrarian investing is an active decision to avoid venture narrative whiplash on a daily basis by focusing on underlying technical progress and consumer adoption."
https://jeffmorrisjr.substack.com/p/venture-narrative-whiplash
11. "Long story short, the American consumer is doing well—and, contrary to the popular narrative, that well-being extends to younger Americans. So if everyone is spending healthily, what are they spending on?
One of my most reliable frameworks for startup investing is a simple one: follow the money 💰 (Cue Jerry Maguire: “Show ME the MONEY!”) What are people spending their money on? What categories comprise a large portion of household spend, and as a result offer large markets for startups to build in?
Looking at the breakdown of an average U.S. household’s expenditures, a few categories stand out: housing, transportation, food, finances, healthcare, entertainment, apparel."
https://digitalnative.substack.com/p/follow-the-money-categories-of-consumer
12. "The consequences of Putin’s determination to avoid loss have been heavy for Ukraine as well as Russia. A futile war has continued and will only stop when Putin, or a successor, recognizes the failure.
Because he lacks a convincing victory Putin has instead sought to coerce Ukraine into capitulation, first by attacking its critical infrastructure and now its grain exports. None of this has led to a more conciliatory attitude in Kyiv. If anything it has had the opposite effect. At most it may give Putin some malign comfort that Ukrainians are being harshly punished for refusing to join his dominion and an opportunity to remove a competitor in agricultural trade. He has spoken positively about how shortages allow Russian grain exporters to charge more."
https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/20569
13. Title says it all. It's always a choice, reputation or money.
"Fresh off his wedding — a moment when you would hope someone would be imbued with a sense of wisdom and perspective — Palihapitiya is passing the buck, dismissing his role in convincing people to lose a bunch of money betting on the stocks that he was hawking.
Chamath! that was the trade that you were engaged in. You swapped your reputation for SPAC sponsor fees. You should have done some diligence on what you were getting yourself into. How were you underwriting the damage to your reputation?"
https://www.newcomer.co/p/the-scam-in-the-arena
14. "For Putin killing Prigozhin shows to Russia and the world that no one messes with him - he has a track record of taking out anyone trying who he views as traitors, including Prigozhin but also Litvinenko and Skrypal.
He would also conclude that, while the mutiny had shown his own weakness, that he is back. That said, the fact it took him nigh on two months to position himself to be able to take Prigozhin out does still show how weak his position was back in June."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/prigozhin-how-obvious-was-that
15. "You should never let a VC off easy by letting them lazily paint a whole industry as a terrible place to invest. For everyone who’s ever said that travel sucks, music sucks, or e-commerce sucks there’s an Airbnb, Spotify, or Shein that has bucked the trend—and isn’t that what VCs are looking for? Outliers?
You just have to be knowledgeable enough about the space to be able to prove to them why your company will be that outlier—and frankly, most founders don’t know enough about their industry to understand how to explain all that."
https://www.thisisgoingtobebig.com/blog/2023/8/23/the-bs-list-we-dont-like-this-space-no-52
16. "Meanwhile, let’s understand that the economies in both Russia and China are imploding. The Blood and Billions that Ukraine has cost Russia are overwhelming the ability to produce GDP.
Meanwhile, back in Beijing, the economy is also imploding under the weight of massive debt.
Only a few days ago, the massive Evergrand filed for bankruptcy protection in the US courts.
What would happen to the world if Russia and or China just ceased to function? We’ve seen this before. Political upheavals are often accompanied by famines in both China and Russia.
Is now the time to consider a strategy for dealing with a failed state? Two failed states? Two very large, failed states? Yes. Maybe this is all just a rough patch, as some say. But what if we are wrong again?"
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/prigozhin-gone-xi-departed-covid
17. "Major US news outlets cite intelligence agencies opining that things are “grim” and that hopes are fading that Ukraine can reach its (supposed) objective of Melitopol, more than 50 miles away.
This is simply wrong. Intelligence analysts may look at the map of Southern Ukraine and see distances; military planners will apply the military math and see something very different. They know that to crush the Russian army and strangle the troops in frontline fortifications, they don’t need to advance 50 miles. 10 miles will do it.
Why? Because although it would be great if Ukrainian troops broke through to the shores of the Sea of Azov, they do not have to. Instead, they can achieve a significant operational outcome by bringing Russia’s ground line of communication (GLOC) under their guns."
https://cepa.org/article/ukraine-victory-is-closer-than-you-think/
18. BRICs Summit; basically a nothing burger. Not a threat to the USD dominion......for now or for a while.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tG7hh-Vx2A
19. "You should always be checking what your organization is optimizing for. Don’t be surprised when your organization actually get’s a challenge and immediately folds. You filled your leadership with donkeys. This goes for businesses, government, militaries anything that requires a hierarchy of people."
https://bowtiedhitman.substack.com/p/are-you-breeding-competence-prigozhin
20. "Sometimes a winner take none market can emerge when a technology breakthrough just didn’t pan out, or there’s a dramatic change in customer needs/expectations.
But other times, and through the most recent cycle, it seems like some of the most dramatic ones were just blitzscaling aimed the wrong target. Narratives and spreadsheets which somehow would take low margin, high fixed cost businesses and transform them into technology companies."
21. "Yet, the fact that an increasing number of countries want to join BRICS cannot be ignored or taken lightly. BRICS’ refusing to participate in new global trade, proxy or actual wars may make such wars less likely. And BRICS’ economic clout may help reduce some of the glaring economic imbalances between the rich, middle-income, and poor nations across the world."
https://branko2f7.substack.com/p/brics-and-non-alignment-today
22. “Tokyo felt of the future, China had skipped the PC, India’s villages operated on SMS, & the Middle Eastern writing orientation - all of them opened my eyes to how the world may feel homogeneous from a PM’s Macbook Air in Mountain View, but was many users’ reality was richly nuanced - something I only understood in the field.
I’ve never forgotten the stark difference between my expectations of the way people use technology & the way they actually do. I’m grateful for that extraordinary experience with a wonderful group of people.
If you have a chance to visit your users or customers, leap for it. It will open your eyes."
https://tomtunguz.com/around-the-world-in-21-days/
23. "Kyiv launched the campaign in the hope of recapturing territory seized by Russia. But so far, any gains have been small and painfully fought for.
Now, several Russian military bloggers are painting a gloomy picture of the front line situation for Moscow’s forces in parts of the south."
https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/25/europe/ukraine-offensive-robotyne-intl/index.html
24. "The outsized role the U.S. plays in the system exists primarily because of convenience, not hegemony; to see this, witness how the BRICS’ New Development Bank does most of its borrowing in dollars. It’s not because the U.S. makes them do it; it’s just easier.
So anyway, every aspect of the threat that some in the Western press perceive from BRICS is essentially fake. More incisive commentators see that the organization is likely to become something like the SCO — an acronym looking for a purpose, coupled with a vague notion of geo-economic power that never quite coalesces into anything real."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/brics-is-fake
25. Trying to learn from the top VCs. This new series is pretty helpful. The thought process behind a firm’s strategy and org.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdpcF7LnL6g&t=7s
26. "But there is an influential tide of founders on the rise that is opting out of this path and quietly plotting a new one that leads to building generational companies.
It’s a hybrid path, combining the growth of targeted venture funding with the durability found in bootstrapping (i.e. profitability). It’s a path with less venture capital and more self-reliance.
And it’s the direct result of founders emerging from a tumultuous period of feast (with 5x more venture capital offered to startups over the past decade) and a brief flirtation with famine from the recent pullback that has left some venture-dependent companies in starvation mode.
For many founders, a steady reliance on venture capital, as it is heavily prescribed today, is often seen as unhealthy, if not risky."
https://trohan.com/2023/08/20/raise-less-build-more/
27. "The one good story to come out of this desperate need to claim credit in Washington and London is that there is now a real awareness that the Ukrainians have a chance of significant success. Believe me, people would not be trying to desperately claim credit for Ukrainian strategy if intelligence reports were not showing that things were going well for Ukraine.
In a nutshell, there are signs that the Ukrainian strategy which they have been following fore more than two months (over the early criticisms by US/UK sources and the analytical community) is starting to work.
That strategy has been to concentrate on weakening Russian forces considerably, to create the conditions for a later Ukrainian advance. The Ukrainians realized Russian lines were too well defended in June, and they (not surprisingly) had no desire to suffer extreme losses battering themselves against those lines."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-43
28. "Today the topic is Longevity. Some of you may be nearing 40 (or past 40 already), and health becomes its own investment the older you get. No point in building net-worth if you are not around to enjoy it!"
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/moving-from-max-gains-to-max-life
29. There are many different ways to do VC well. This is a good case for a craftsman approach.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX9D9bq-6qQ
30. Good life skills for young men.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GcTyo5ZvIgA
31. Finding the Limits of Innovation: Good overview.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fF4YTDsxcnc
32. Excellent NIA episode. Always a good conversation re: edge of the internet and cultural creative businesses.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PS2Zz7EDvnI
33. Felicis is one of the top VC funds. Outsiders turned insiders. Really good learnings for building a firm.