Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Feb 26th, 2023
“Cultivate the habit of being grateful for every good thing that comes to you, and to give thanks continuously. And because all things have contributed to your advancement, you should include all things in your gratitude.” —Ralph Waldo Emerson
"Economic growth policies work best when they seize upon a natural trend. And inside Japan, the most powerful megatrend is the unlocking of Japan’s enormous household sector financial assets because of inheritance.
Specifically, it is estimated that of the famous Y2,000 trillion of household financial wealth, as much as 50% is owned by people aged 70 or older. This implies that somewhere between Y400-700 trillion will get “unstuck” due to Japan’s natural demographic destiny over the coming 10-15 years.
While the exact numerical estimates may be subject to debate, there must be no doubt that here we have an unprecedented opportunity for policy makers to become creative. The goal is simple: let us try to channel these funds towards investments for Japan’s future."
https://japanoptimist.substack.com/p/from-inheritance-liability-to-investment
2. "Put together, the internal combustion engine, the microchip, and the shipping container permanently changed both the possibilities and expectations for standards of living. Consequently, much of what we label “globalization” or “globalism” isn’t due to a particular political order but to advances in technology.
That’s not to say that political decisions don’t matter, of course they do. What this means is that technological progress plays a greater role in the human existence than many geopolitical theorists care to recognize.
The reality of technological progress is the end of globalization doesn’t mean a total collapse of global living standards. The world today is too interconnected for that to happen. Instead, the more likely scenario is for trade to become less globalization and more regionalized. A decline in the global order means a rise in regional orders.Power abhors a vacuum. Systems will seek a new equilibrium.
The great challenge facing humanity is that this transition from globalization to regionalization takes time, and typically times of transition are punctuated by acute chaos.
We are now entering a period of geopolitical chaos and uncertainty."
https://shatterpointgeopolitics.substack.com/p/a-roadmap-to-globalizations-end
3. "I had to learn how to build towards financial wellness operating at early-stage startups and working on my own micro fund as an entrepreneur the hard way. Navigating startup liquidity was a scary experience because no one before me had gone through this experience.
Frankly, I’ve never seen wealth transfer between generations. My family has only experienced loss in the form of war, the Cultural Revolution, and immigration. I know I’m not alone in these experiences as so many of my first gen founder friends have confided in me their anxieties around money and a sense of never having enough."
https://bosefina.substack.com/p/the-psychology-of-money-for-first
4. Scary new world we are entering. Autonomous weapons coming.
https://johnrobb.substack.com/p/balloons-and-autonomous-weapons
5. This is a disturbing but incredible interview on the war happening in Mexico right now between the drug gangs and the government there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PIOoJMMptA
6. Woke is a joke. This is an important presentation. We need to wake up from this stupidity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJdqJu-6ZPo
7. A critical concept for startups. Language market fit.
"It’s language/market fit at work — when you find the exact right words to explain your product or service to prospective customers, words that resonate with goals and struggles that are already in their brains.
When you talk about your product, a lightbulb in their heads switches on that says, “That is EXACTLY what I’m looking for” — they feel like you’ve read their minds.
I myself didn’t realize until I jumped the wall from operator to VC and saw hundreds of early-stage companies, but now it’s clear as day: language/market fit is the most under-appreciated concept for early-stage startups."
8. This is a great and very honest discussion with Chamath. But so many self help, business and investment insights.
One worth listening to. This really makes me like him again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dz6mfGFri9U
9. "The struggle with the Soviet Union, he calls the “first Cold War.” The second has already started, and the West, he insists, is not the aggressor. “This is not something we chose,” Gallagher said, “the CCP, with their junior partner Russia, have been waging a new cold war against us for the better part of a decade.”
That conflict will remake the world, he warns, “and we are just waking up to that now.”
“We’re not trying to take territory. We’re not trying to reshape a foreign country in our own image. We’re trying to defend the free world from communist, totalitarian aggression,” he said summarizing the emerging power conflict that will define the next century and the mission of his new committee. “That’s what it’s all about.”
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2023/02/14/mike_gallagher_a_new_cold_warrior__148856.html
10. "Speed is the single best way to de-risk a startup. The way to survive the unforgiving marathon that is startup life is, paradoxically, to sprint as fast as you can. Speed is a startup's best friend.
Almost everybody in the startup ecosystem agrees that speed is a good thing. Almost nobody acts like it.
We’ve been socialized to believe that going too fast is risky. We fear launching too soon; we abhor looking sloppy; we shy away from criticism; we look for side-quests; we think ‘one more feature’ will save us; we bike-shed. All these tendencies slow us down, but we think they reduce our chance of failure, and more importantly, the appearance of failure.
We forget that for startups, not going fast is riskier still."
https://pivotal.substack.com/p/the-perils-of-prudence
11. "So we have a situation of skyrocketing Russian losses on the offensive for corresponding declining gains. This is the Russian Army declining as an offensive force and the Ukrainian gaining as a defensive force—this is the big story of the last two months—not some ‘massive’ Russian offensive."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-16-russias-massive
12. Fascinating tweet thread of an obscure but brilliant general in Hapsburg Europe.
https://twitter.com/LandsknechtPike/status/1627303219528359936
13. "But applause can become addicting. And I’ve noticed something unsettling in my many years around musicians. The more they get the acclaim, the more they start needing it. You might think that after all the big paychecks and standing ovations, they would eventually have reached some sense of self-satisfaction that would allow for an easy retirement.
But that’s not true. In fact, the opposite is the more typical case. The more the artists are rewarded, the more they still want. I’m reminded of the quip of Roman epigrammist Martial who said: “Fortune gives too much to many, but enough to none.”
https://tedgioia.substack.com/p/why-musicians-cant-retire
14. Enlightening and sobering lessons in geopolitics from history. This is a great discussion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ww4ofe0v70
15. "In our conversation last year, we delved into the nature of the Putin regime, his decision to invade, and what the war could look like as time unfurled.
Now we know: the Russian invasion has been a catastrophe in every sense. There have been hundreds of thousands of casualties––it is folly to attempt a more accurate reckoning––and much of Ukraine’s infrastructure is in ruins.
Once the Russian military failed to achieve its early hope of taking the capital, Kyiv, and supplanting the Ukrainian leadership, it has prosecuted a vicious war of attrition, in which more and more human beings on both sides are sacrificed to Putin’s pitiless ambitions."
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-new-yorker-interview/how-the-war-in-ukraine-ends
16. A list of the many reasons people hate VCs. I get it.
"Truth be told, you have to find the right fit for your company. Maybe you really need hands on guidance to build, but realistically you can get just as much value out of a VC who makes a few good warm intros, wires you the money, and leaves you alone, as you can from one who wants to call you every week.
VC-Founder fit is majorly underrated. I personally try to let founders in our portfolio build but provide the right safety net and guidance so that I can be the first person off the bench if ever needed. Either way, VCs should be honest about their value adds, and never claim to provide services they don’t. Doing otherwise is just pure deceit to win a deal."
https://medium.com/dam-venture/the-lies-that-make-people-hate-vc-3-3-cf902f91e1f6
17. "In the PLG zeitgeist, founders must not lose sight of the importance of professional services in moving upmarket to enterprise. Services like implementation, training, maintenance and support are paramount to driving retention, expansion, and second order revenue (e.g. referrals, references).
The same principle applies to how professional services are a bridge to multi-year recurring revenue contracts; 'lower' quality professional services revenue begets high quality subscription revenue."
https://akashbajwa.substack.com/p/professional-services-beget-high
18. "My views have not changed, Russian cannot win this war militarily and more likely is still a Ukraine win thru this spring counteroffensive.
But, the most interesting development this weekend was a) talk of a Chinese peace plan, after hints of such by the Chinese foreign minister visiting the Munich security conference. b) Blinken warning that China was about to step up arms supplies to Russia.
I think all this is linked. Russia is losing the war in Ukraine - China does not want Russia to suffer a crushing defeat in Ukraine, which could threaten political stability in Russia itself and thereby weakening the use of its own security pact with Moscow.
And the offer of pe
ace talks is basically China now saying “stop, or else we arm Russia”. Likely this much was communicated to Blinken in Munich by the Chinese. This is meant to get the US and Ukraine to peace talks."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/war-in-ukraine-china-stepping-in
19. Really solid interview. I always learn from Chamath (both positive and negative)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQXjZq0D-uA
20. Saudi Arabia is awesome and underrated. Its worth visiting: amazing culture, great food and nice people. I've been here 5 times in last year.
https://www.afar.com/travel-guides/saudi-arabia/guide
21. "Symbols matter: a Kennedy or a Reagan at the Berlin Wall, a Churchill with a cigar and a bowler, for that matter a green-clad Zelensky growling, “I need ammunition, not a ride.” Simply by taking the hazardous trip to Kyiv, Biden made a strategic move of cardinal importance.
The Russia-Ukraine war is not merely a humanitarian calamity, a monstrous collection of crimes against humanity, a gross violation of solemn agreements and international law. It is also a watershed, in which much will be determined about the future of the international system.
It could lead to a very dark place, not different in kind from that of the 1930s and 1940s, if the dictators get their way. But if the liberal democracies unite and display the resolve, enterprise, and military capacity that they have shown before, that outcome can still be avoided."
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/02/biden-ukraine/673135/
22. "I guess also if Chinese threats to arm Russia if the U.S. fails to push Ukraine to the peace table are to mean anything the US has to think that China is serious.
But therein it knows if it goes all in in providing military support for Russia it really will be a new Cold War with the West with Europe forced firmly into the U.S. camp against China and Russia. China will lose whatever remaining leverage it might have with Europe against the US.
And the world would then appear a very dangerous place with two entrenched armed camps marching to the drumbeat of war. Does China em really want that? I don’t think so. So China is not negotiating here from a position of strength either."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/ukraine-china-and-the-biden-visit
23. "Your workday is comprised of thousands of decisions ranging from very broad to very particular, but each one is a decision that needs to be made. This leads me to a conclusion:
Your job is about making decisions regardless if you are an Individual Contributor or a CEO.
The best products make decisions for me, so I don’t have to. They are opinionated and have sensible defaults. This is because the companies behind them put in the work to make these decisions instead of abdicating them to their customers."
https://substack.piszek.com/p/the-universal-unit-of-work-is-a-decision
24. Good basics for understanding how bonds work. It should be some part of your portfolio.
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/bonds-for-newbies
25. "Some of the sharpest, hardest-working people I know are my tax advisers. No joke. I pay these people six figures, and they routinely save me seven. It’s a great ROI but a drain on society. We’re paying some of our best and brightest to solve problems of our own making — helping rich people navigate a maze other Americans can’t afford to enter. Am I a hypocrite for engaging in these strategies? Maybe. But I’m not going to disarm unilaterally … said every wealthy household.
Substantially reducing tax evasion and corporate tax avoidance could save us $1 trillion per year. That could go a long way toward closing the $1.4 trillion gap between our spending and revenue in 2023, without “raising” taxes at all. Indeed, it would more than pay for our current spending — it’s the $640 billion in interest costs on the debt that drags us back into the red.
Collecting the taxes we’re owed and aligning what’s owed to what’s paid is fundamental to building trust in the government and our institutions — something lacking in the U.S. Edmund Burke, a founding father of conservative thought, was deeply concerned about the stability and legitimacy of government."
https://www.profgalloway.com/taxes/
26. Cogent and sober discussion from US SOF military vet who has also fought in Ukraine recently. #slavaukraini
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4KsF0DQ_0Y
27. "The thing about jumping through your window when it opens is that it causes it to stay opened longer. Hiring great people raises the bar internally on execution. Growth sustains if not accelerates. Things start to compound more and more. A window that might be open for a few months can stay opened for several.
But eventually the window will close. This is not to say your business isn't still thriving, but the universe has just retracted its cosmic help, moving on to new younger startups whose stars are about align. You'll look back and miss that time when gravity loosened its grip. But hopefully you won't regret not acting on it."
https://sarahtavel.substack.com/p/taking-advantage-when-a-window-opens
28. "In other words, full Chinese support for Russia’s war effort has ominous consequences — both because it commits the West to a slow proxy war in which it’s currently at a disadvantage, and because it signals China’s determination to continue its push to overturn the existing order and rewrite the boundaries of nation-states according to its liking.
In other words, the New Axis is no longer just a hypothetical term; it appears to be a real thing. Very little good will come of that."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/china-goes-all-in-on-russias-war
29. "The irony if Putin invaded Ukraine with ambitions to create a Greater Russia, but the end game might prove to be a Lesser Russia with new states emerging across the Russian Federation, mimicking events after 1991 and the collapse of the USSR."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/putins-war-brings-russias-decline
30. "Looking to the immediate future, there can be no end save victory for Ukraine over Russia. The United States and its allies have committed themselves to Ukraine for the long haul, and they can’t waver now. That means backing Kyiv as long as it takes to win back all of Ukraine’s territory, whether through liberation or negotiation. It also entails membership in NATO (or some other concrete security guarantees) and the European Union, both for geopolitical stability and reconstruction once the war ends.
More broadly, though, the United States and its allies need to act on their understanding of a world changed by the war in Ukraine. Increases in defense spending and production are a must, of course, but we need to reinforce other ties as well — or at least manage disputes and differences on issues like trade far more collegially than we have to date.
Neither the United States nor its allies around the world can delude themselves into thinking that the world will snap back to the way it was a year ago. The post-Cold War world is dead, and there’s no reviving it. We’ve got to forge ahead into this uncharted territory with confidence in ourselves and our values, knowing that we can succeed — and that Ukraine’s fight is truly our own."
https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/kyiv-stands-strong-proud-tall-and
31. Defensetech is here.
https://andrewglenn.substack.com/p/defense-is-big-business
32. "If we have learned one thing the last year is that all players have moved forward on their intents and ambitions, but only incrementally. The goals have not changed. Russia still wants Ukraine, Ukraine wants its territory back, the West wants that too while boxing in and defanging Putin, while China wants a weaker West and a stronger but not overly dangerous Russia.
None of these objectives are compatible or bridgeable which means there is not even a basic blueprint for a peace deal on the table. The people of Ukraine are thus paying an incredible toll for a shifting global order. It has been a terrible spectacle to watch over the past twelve months and there is no end in sight."
https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/one-year-in-ukraine
33. The guys are great when they are talking about tech, VC and SaaS.
I think they are very misinformed when it comes to Ukraine and geopolitics. They are clearly not very international. #Stayinyourlane
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OKshpRGOY0I
34. Good discussion, Ukraine is on the frontlines of the free world, defending itself against an autocratic aggressor. It's sad that many people seem to have forgotten this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ab24tDK9pV0
35. "This is a major paradigm shift. Companies are selling to the lifestyle, instead of the moment. They’re creating products to help you prove that you’re a member of the community.
And when there’s a new product drop, the community will swarm to purchase and deepen their identity."
https://latecheckout.substack.com/p/why-people-really-buy-your-products