Revenge of the Real World: Painful Implications of The Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Like many people around the world, I spent the last 2 weeks processing the ongoing war in Ukraine. After the initial shock, sadness and anger around the world; we’ve seen beyond heroic resistance by Ukrainians of all walks of life. Ukraine’s military was underestimated and has performed brilliantly against expectations of everyone, even experts in the west. No surprise, as Ukrainians are tough people, defending their homes against an unjust aggressor. Add a brilliant info/disinfo war by Ukraine, inspired leadership by Zelensky, Ukraine has rallied many in the West behind them.
Much to my surprise, the Western world galvanized by the illegal, brutal invasion has inflicted massive, unprecedented economic sanctions on the Russian economy (Latest here from Noah Smith: (https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/how-are-the-big-sanctions-hurting). Many important western companies in media, finance, oil, consumer packaged goods and technology are leaving the country. (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-corporations-that-have-pulled-out) The Russian economy and Ruble (currency) has literally become rubble. I feel for the regular people in Russia who did not start or want this war but now suffer because of Putin’s decision.
The failed initial Russian military blitzkrieg, is leading many people to prematurely conclude that the Russian army is a paper tiger,due to bad morale, corruption, terrible logistics and weak leadership. Based on 2 weeks of conflict, it is not a foregone conclusion that Russia will win in the end. I certainly hope this is the case but there is so much conflicting info coming from the frontlines. But even if Russia does win tactically in Ukraine, they will find it almost impossible to hold and occupy a country the size of Texas. A country full of partisans angry at invaders attacking their country and home. Russia has lost in the long run no matter what happens now.
Having lost face & military momentum, Putin consequently has stepped up the shelling and bombings of cities full of civilians leading a massive refugee crisis with close to 1.5M Ukrainians fleeing to other surrounding countries, another tragedy in the making. Big mistake because what we learned is that this kind of bombing does not work. They only end up uniting and angering the civilian population. We learned this in World War 2 during the German Blitz bombing in London, the Allied bombings of German cities, the US bombing of Japanese cities (not the Nukes), the bombings of Hanoi during the 2nd Vietnam War.
There are also indications that this war has not been popular among the Russian populace who have close relations with Ukraine. Russia is clearly in the wrong, having broken long established international laws and treaties not once but twice. In 2014 & now in 2022, aggressively threatening through force the sovereignty of a country of 44M, and a democracy to boot. Despite some corruption and developmental issues, it was really starting to grow & flower culturally and economically. I saw this as someone going to Ukraine regularly since 2007. Full of bright young people used to the freedom and hope of further integration with the west. This is not hyperbole.
But I think the West and America also share a small part of the fault. Not enough to justify the Russian invasion and terrible violence they have inflicted on Ukraine, as this is not how civilized countries behave (Yes, I know USA has done the same all around the world so not excusing that either, in fact it’s even more hypocritical because of the ideals we espouse). But we did not pay attention to Russia’s concerns about encroachment of western borders toward Russia since 1992. Whether we promised or not that NATO would not move toward Eastern Europe is actually irrelevant. In the Russian view, with the expansion of NATO (which is a defensive treaty btw), the west poked the bear. If you want to understand more of what in International Relations is called the Realism aka Realpolitik view, watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4 (I don’t ascribe to all of these views but he has been right alot and this talk was 7 years ago)
None of those points justify the Russian invasion of Ukraine at all. I am 110% on the side of Ukraine and believe Ukraine is in the right here. I have many personal ties, business ties and long friendships in Ukraine so admit my bias. I ended up being so emotional about this that I ended up attacking a right wing shill on Twitter for his anti-Ukraine views, stupidly starting an Internet fight that got all his trolls attacking me last week. Not something characteristic of me. A good reminder that social media is just plain bad for your mental health. Don’t start a fight on social media, it’s pointless. Although for the record, Cernovich and his live-at-home incel loser followers can F–k themselves…. (although I should note and admit, his book on personal development is actually quite good, one I found very helpful). But on the bright side, this did make me take a 1.5 week break from Twitter. Try it sometime, it is so much better for your brain.
Having said that, it seems that the West (USA) goaded the Russians and did not try to understand their perspective. Basic Diplomacy 101. Russia has been invaded by so many powers in the past, Mongols, Sweden, France, Germany (twice), so this mentality of defensibility of borders and having a big buffer zone is long ingrained in every Russian ruler’s brain. I don’t like it & think it’s crazy. Who in their right mind would ever invade Russia? But this is what Russian leaders think rightly or wrongly and we should understand this. It’s easy to be goaded into Good versus Evil especially by the western media. But these are the same people who pushed & supported flawed narratives and supported the Iraq invasions. This and other disastrous interventions and even the messed up Covid response or government overreaction.
America & the West at large are not guiltless. We are where we are because of thoughtless & short term focused policies. They led Ukraines leaders on. I recall the US Ambassador even back in January saying in a public event: “we got your back.” If so, where are the troops on the ground, where is the no fly zone? It’s not going to happen unfortunately, for fear of confronting a country with nuclear weapons. I worry many in the US Government will just treat this like a proxy war and fight it to the last Ukrainian. Yet, I will say I’m surprised that the economic sanctions being inflicted are at an unbelievable level. With even some of the Russian Central Banks holdings being confiscated. I’m not saying it’s undeserved but the repercussions to this move will be far reaching across the globe. We will see who wins in what is being called “Banks versus Tanks.” More on this here: https://doomberg.substack.com/p/on-the-cusp-of-an-economic-singularity
I hope the West wakes up and properly supports Ukraine beyond the economic sanctions, sending weapons and sharing intelligence, while at the same time not backing Russia into a corner. A nuclear power run by a sociopathic dictator btw. As much as I want to see Putin dead, hanging from the rafters or with a bullet in the head, there needs to be some offramp for Putin to step off & back down from Ukraine. There is a non-zero chance of some mistake that could lead to direct conflict between NATO & Russia which leads to dark endings for humanity.
I’m deeply concerned due to the low quality of political leadership we have in the West that we will be unable to thread the needle of supporting Ukraine until they win, without causing Russia to resort to even more escalation, whether dangerous cyberattacks on the electronic grids to even more nukes.
We have long ignored geopolitics and taken the last 70 years of globalization for granted and now this is coming to bite us all in the butt.
Now with energy prices going up, commodities of all kinds are in short supply (wheat, grain, fertilizer, even neon for semiconductors). This is the real world strikes back. All self inflicted due to stupid energy policies in EU & USA which have made us dependent on the oil of regimes hostile to our values. 30% of Germany’s energy is fulfilled by Russia. Even the US, which is supposedly energy independent, relies on some Russian natural gas, even though we have lots of supply that we have under invested in developing. In fact, we all recently learned that Russia has supported environmental movements and political parties in Europe & USA over the last decade to the tune of $70M dollars to vote to cut off natural oil and nuclear production, making them more reliant on Russian oil. “Useful idiots” indeed.
I also worry about the lack of food & fertilizer coming from Russia (Biggest exporter of grain) and Ukraine (5th largest exporter of grain) that many emerging countries in Africa and the Middle East are dependent on. (Learn more here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bq75Av59-YU & here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5G0L0Hb-iEQ). Also read this article: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/2/27/22950805/russia-ukraine-food-prices-hunger-invasion-war. There will be famine. If you think the Arab Spring was bad; this has a chance to be far worse with all the consequent political uprisings and wave of poor refugees.
And top that off, we have a global power of the USA tired, divided and weary. Also with lost credibility and legitimacy due to disastrous interventions (read Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan) that have made many people around the world and internally question the ideals of the USA. The incredibly awful intervention in Iraq particularly has made many Americans rightfully question the basis of future interventions, even with a good moral and legal basis. After several pointless conflicts this does not exactly harken confidence in our political class.
An Iron law is that “Every action has an equal and opposite reaction.” We see that in the Chinese-Russian-Indian-Iran alliance coming together before us. South Korea looks to be leaning in too or at least towards being more neutral as China is closer and the US is not seen as a reliable ally. The mass de-platforming of Russians from American tech platforms will lead to the growing trend of “Digital Decolonization” where regions like Latin America, (MENA) Middle East, North Africa, Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe and Africa start developing and building their own consumer & B2B technology platforms. Ones set to their own local needs and under control of their own governments (for better or for worse).
So Why should You care?
Well if you don’t care for the moral aspect (shame on you then frankly), you should expect prices for food and gas to go up. WAY UP. If you thought we had product shortages in 2021, it will get worse this year. In the USA the worse we may experience is higher costs at the grocery store or gas station. As crappy as that is, it’s better than famine and consequent breakdown of law and order in many emerging markets who don’t have the financial buffer to pay for the rising costs of core products we need in everyday life. It’s going to get ugly all over the world as the bottom third of the world that was barely getting ahead, really starts to fall behind. The lack of hope leads to anger and this leads to nowhere good. The global world and complex economy we all know and love is unwinding before us. Just as in Jared Diamond’s book “Collapse” but on a global level.
All of this adds to a really challenging 2022. If you thought 2020 sucked, this is gonna be far worse. Talk about another “Global Wake up Call”. Now the world will have to reap all the results of our complacency, appeasement and laziness. We will be forced to clean up the mess that’s been left behind by thoughtless policies from an arrogant, deluded, self-serving & grifter political class. We can’t kick the can down the road anymore.
Time for all of us to get back to work and start using our brains and learn to think for ourselves. Time to face the music and do the hard work of fixing this mess whether in climate, societal, geopolitics and the economy. Vote out these incompetent politicians in cities, states and countries. Start contributing more to charities and good causes. Like a broken record, be frugal and financial fit so you can help any family, friends or neighbors who need it. It will only get worse before it gets better.
In the meantime if you want to help Ukraine. This is a good site for resources on the best ways to contribute. https://how-to-help-ukraine-now.super.site/
Also some good charities to help the poor Ukrainian refugees fleeing the illegal invasion here: https://wck.org, https://help.rescue.org/donate/ukraine-acq, https://www.care.org & https://novaukraine.org.
Slayva Ukraini!