Talent Mobility in a Deglobalized & Multipolar World: Learning from Genghis Khan

As a history buff, I read a tremendous amount of books. Most recently finished “The Mongol Storm” by Nicholas Morton, which described the scary story and impressive impact their conquests and invasions had on most of Asia, the Middle East and even Eastern Europe in the 13th century. It was a terrifying horde from the harsh environment of the steppes, unified and led by a military genius named Chinggis Khan (Genghis Khan in western parlance) that literally changed everything in the geopolitical order at that time. 

Old political dynasties were destroyed and immigration of entire peoples fled before their wrath. Their empire spanned China, most of the Middle East & Central Asia, all the way through modern day Turkey, Russia & Ukraine to even parts of Eastern Europe. It was huge and probably surpassed the old Roman Empire or at least matched the one of Alexander the Great. They had clear rules: Defiance and resistance would end in terror and death but surrender and loyalty would receive security and prosperity. It worked very well. 

After the initial destruction and disruption, they were able to connect continents and unify trade routes from all over the world. The Mongol conquests reshaped the Near East and the process of Globalization really began during this time. They encouraged commerce and the sciences. Recruited talent from all across the empire. This led to a massive interchange and exchange of trade, ideas and talent between Asia & Europe, arguably, the beginning of the connected world we live in now. The conquests inevitably broadened peoples world views and opened their minds. Knowledge increased dramatically. 

“In some cases these specialists might spend their entire lives plying their trade in places like the Venetian shipyards: “the Arsenal.” In most cases, however, a ruler rarely possessed the money or the need to retain an artisan’s services for more than a single project or for a few years, so the latter customarily moved from state to state, crossing cultural boundaries and plying their trade wherever it was required. 

This very mobile workforce was much in evidence across the Near East in the medieval period: the Crusader States hired Armenian siege engineers; the Egyptians constructed ships according to a design created by a Sicilian shipwright; both the Mamluk sultan and the Ilkhans employed Frankish shipwrights; silk weavers from Mosul took refuge from the Mongols in the Crusader States (and, by extension, silk weavers from the Crusader States seemingly set up workshops in Paris); the Ayyubids occasionally hired Frankish knights to train their warriors;60 and an architect from Ayyubid Damascus designed the Anatolian Seljuks’ great mosque in Konya.

In short, the workforce was mobile and hireable, meaning that technologies and personnel flowed easily and quickly across religious and ethnic boundaries. This often had the effect of flattening the technological balance of power between societies because in many cases they all had access to the same artisans.”

But fast forward to 2024, as I’ve written many times, the world is fracturing again. Between the Global West (North America/ Europe/ Japan & Australia/New Zealand), the Global East (Russia/China) and Global South (Southeast Asia, Latam, Africa and the Middle East). Or as Balaji calls it Woke Capital, Communist Capital and Crypto Capital. Globalization, while not completely ended, is fracturing into these various blocs, where the bulk of the trade will be within these structures and not with each other. 

In this new world, there will still be many opportunities for those willing to travel and even emigrate to new places. Possibly the Global South which is where the major growing populations are. Places like Singapore, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Panama and possibly a surprise for many people: Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City or Riyadh that are growing clusters for talent and where smart ambitious people are rewarded for their willingness to move. 

In the Global West it could be cities like Tokyo, Tirana or Seoul. Where the smartest and most ambitious people go will always change. It used to be London during the 1800s. San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York & London have seen a massive decline during the pandemic but seem to be making a resurgence now. Talent, just like capital, will go where they are most welcome & see the brightest future. The flexible and the mobile will win big in this new world.