The Aggregation of Marginal Gains: No Such thing as Overnight Success

We see this all the time: people who seem to come out of nowhere to become big name successes, whether this in Hollywood, Wall Street or Silicon Valley. But dig into their stories and look back a bit longer like 5-10 years earlier and you can see they were hustling and grinding in obscurity. The only difference is they just had the grit to keep pushing. 

I think the other secret besides having some personal mission to focus on is that they make a lot of small smart decisions that build on each other. This gives them massive velocity and growth. 

It reminds me of a Fireside chat I did with Charles Hudson of Precursor Capital, easily one of the best and most active pre-seed Venture funds around in Silicon Valley. Charles talked about how some of the best founders just make a long series of good decisions. And how the average founder makes good decisions but ones that are just 10% off each time. The problem is that this slight deficiency compounded over time causes them to lose trajectory versus the top best founders. The top founder’s trajectory is just much steeper in the long run. In the highly competitive environment Silicon Valley, this steep trajectory makes all the difference. 

We all know people who just seem to go from strength to strength. People who make a lot of good decisions and usually just don’t make many bad decisions. This is especially where it matters like where you live, who you do business with, who you date/marry etc. etc. I think  we all know many people who just can’t seem to get their act together. No matter what they do. People who tragically go from one mess up to another in life and career, year after year after year. 

This is the same with companies whether big established companies or startups, it’s very rarely one decision that causes them to fail. It’s usually a long series of bad decisions. I saw this far too many times in my career to count. 

The power of compounding goes both ways. It’s like you are pulled into a vortex and you cannot escape. Or if you do escape, it’s only through massive effort and energy. This is why mental frameworks and decisiveness are critical. 

Even if you make the wrong decision, as long as you recognize it, immediately deal with it and fix it right away. This is how you get your upward trajectory. This positive momentum is how you win in the long run and carries you much further than you think.