The Future Face of War: Economic Sanctions, Proxy Wars, Cyber-Infowar, Drones & Special Forces

Most people may not know this but I’m actually a history major and have studied war and geopolitics even as a young kid. It also helps to have visited many parts of the world having been to over 70+ countries at this time. And no surprise I started investing in Defense-tech startups in 2022, after the barbaric Russian invasion of Ukraine.

So I had to do a quick ramp up on what’s happening in the military world. I really hate that we are now in a world full of armed conflicts, driven by revanchist rising powers in China-Russia-Iran-North Korea. This when there seems to be a growing weakness in America and the West at large. But it seems to be forced upon us so we better understand and prepare for it. This is a darker post than usual but here we are. It’s a much darker and more scary world we are in compared to the one we lived in before 2020. 

Ukraine is the template for the future of war for the USA, as well the Iranian driven shenanigans in the Middle East with their support of Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. The most recent success of Turkey in toppling Assad in Syria is the most successful example of this. I think China is watching this closely too. 

No more American troops on the ground (that we know of). These will be proxy war: picking sides, preferably one with a strong military cadre and saturating them with key weaponry like infantry portable anti-tank and anti-air missiles, artillery, ammo, long range missiles or whatever is most suited to win on the battlefield. This and training like what NATO forces have been doing with the plucky Ukrainian armed forces since 2014. There will be no American troops on the ground (publicly, more on this below) as the public is weary of war after the debacle in Iraq and Afghanistan.

It will be a Cyber-Info War, using America’s advanced Satellites & Signals Intelligence & Targeting. One clear example are the decapitation operations aka Headhunting missions. Identifying and killing groups of  generals & officers or major logistical targets or major concentrations of arms and weapons. This has happened continually throughout the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKhLuXh_4MM

Widespread use of drones. Even drone swarms. These are spotting technology to actual kill missions with Bayraktar TB2 & Ghost Phoenix & Switchblade 2 kamikaze drones. You really can’t hide anymore due to the incredible ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) capabilities most militaries have via drones (and satellites) and mass movement of troops will be discovered and hit with artillery. 

Special Forces on the ground: You can’t tell me US SOF, CIA SAD or Polish GROM are not on the front lines. But the Ukrainian SOF has been critical in gutting Russian supply chains in Ukraine and Russia proper itself. Lots of mysterious fires happening in factories, key railway lines and arms depots on the front and in Russia itself. 

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dkNAcdBKFI

These measures would all be accompanied by financial Sanctions: Most of the world is still reliant on the US Dollar which is the plumbing of the world’s financial system. Many countries are also reliant on our tooling & machinery, advanced technology like microchips and general know-how. Cutting this off obviously makes sense as the more you can damage the enemy’s economy the less capable they can feed their war machine.

So why should you care? As I have said many times before, as we go into a deglobalized and multipolar world, there will sadly be more war. Some hot, some cold or more likely hybrid. But war is coming. This is the regular reminder from Trotsky “You might not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.”You might not like this but it does not make it less true. So it helps to know what form it will take as war will impact all of us in some way.