Importance of Differentiation: The Fight Against Monoculture
I had been going to New York City for over 25 years. I absolutely love the place. The diversity, the people, the excitement and the energy. But I had started noticing my affections and interest in the last few years wearing off. I could not put my finger on it. Figured it was just me. Don’t get me wrong I still love going to New York City but something felt off over the last few years.
It was not until I read Yancey Strickler that I figured it out. His example of real estate nails it. The local bodega, local restaurant, neighbourhood boutique or unique retail store were disappearing as commercial landlords were raising rents.
“What happens when these businesses leave? New businesses that can maximize how much money they generate move in. And these businesses are, inevitably, chains. Fast food, retail, banks, and others whose operational mantra is based on capital efficiency. Investors make money, franchises notch a new location, and the neighborhood suffers a significant death.
“Behind this dynamic is a monoculture of money optimizing for more money. An investment mentality that hollows out our culture. Real estate is just one example. It’s happening across many segments of our society.”
Source: https://ystrickler.medium.com/resist-and-thrive-1d36819853ca
Because of this endless drive for growth, Manhattan was literally becoming much less diverse, less unique and thus less interesting. Commercial homogenization in all the bad ways. This is not just New York City, I returned to Bangkok and London after a 4 year hiatus and saw the exact same thing happening there: an influx of literally almost every major global chain store. This is not just a hipster complaint (Anyone who knows me, knows I am far from a Hipster).
This Disneyfication or Starbuckization (both meant derogatorily) of global commercial culture is happening all across the globe. All across North America, across Europe and Asia.
Compare New York City to Portland, Oregon. What I jokingly call the Hipster capital of the United States. Where boutique hipsterdom has run amok. It has become a caricature with its own show “Portlandia” but mainly because it has character. Or even Tokyo, despite a large number and influx of global chain stores, it is still able to retain a uniqueness and diversity that most other top cities of so called Developed countries were not able to keep.
Perhaps this is why I am especially drawn to places off the beaten track like Central European (ex-Soviet bloc) region, Taiwan or Latin America. Or for me Japan especially which has a boutique craftsperson culture along with chains. Maybe it’s that I like looking for stuff that is unique & different. Much easier to find this in cities like Kyiv, Belgrade, Buenos Aires, Budapest, Taipei or Helsinki.
So what? I think this is a key lesson for all businesses. How do you differentiate when almost every product and service category is so crowded these days? How do you build something unique and that has personality?
Positioning Book is an old but still one of the best books to think about for any business and marketing strategy. If you cannot be Number 1 or Number 2 in the category, REDEFINE the category. The best way to define the category? It’s the one thing that all the most memorable and unique companies share.
“is that they are clear on their purpose and they follow a strict code in its pursuit. They don’t want to be everything to everybody. They just want to be themselves.”
It’s not about fitting in. Why would you imitate or copy them when they all literally look alike and act alike. Besides, you can’t compete with them head on as they have way more resources than you do, so that is not a winning strategy anyways. You focus on what only you can provide. You focus on being different. You focus on building something that is a reflection of your personality, character and values.
Basically “DON’T SELL OUT!” This is relevant whether you are building a business or a career.
“Don’t compete to be the best, Compete to be Unique”--Clayton Christensen
Or as the cofounder of Kickstarter Perry Chen said “F-ck the Monoculture!”
Listen to this Newsletter: https://listencat.com/the-hard-fork-by-marvin-liao-podcast/
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads January 10th, 2021
“Take the first step in faith. You don’t have to see the whole staircase, just take the first step.” – Martin Luther King Jr.
Hard not to be optimistic about our technology driven future when I read this. But the question: is society ready to get behind this. Must read.
"Collectively, these technologies add up to a lot of possibility. If we cure a bunch of diseases, slow down aspects of aging, realize cheap and emissions-free baseload energy, and deploy new modes of transportation and better construction technologies, we will almost certainly exceed 2 percent TFP growth. But we might not do these things.
It all depends on execution. The underlying science is there. The engineers are willing. Even the funding is available in most cases. But, as a society, how much urgency do we feel? Our culture does not prioritize progress—it fights, destructively, for status. And our politics reflects our culture.
I want to go faster."
https://elidourado.com/blog/notes-on-technology-2020s/
2. This looks like a trippy new SciFi movie. Very curious now.
https://io9.gizmodo.com/watch-the-striking-trailer-for-ukrainian-sci-fi-film-at-1845978769
3. Who is MrBeast??
"Today, MrBeast has almost 34M subscribers and his videos have been watched over 5 billion times. Even if you’re not familiar with MrBeast, it is very likely that you have seen one of his videos. Most of MrBeast’s videos are best described as extreme acts of generosity and/or outrageous experiments."
"MrBeast has quickly become one of the biggest creators on YouTube and he is showing zero signs of slowing down. It might be hard to believe that a 21-year-old from a small town in North Carolina is running laps around the internet, but I think that’s the beauty and power of the internet.
I am 100% confident that within the next few years MrBeast will be the biggest individual creator on YouTube."
https://blake.substack.com/p/who-is-mrbeast
4. Long one but worth a read to get a sense of what's happening in China. Also the trade war with the USA.
"For the most part, the control hawks faction of the government has had a run of the table, shown by the fact that US agencies have been more focused on taking down Chinese firms than extending US strengths. At a time when it’s more important than ever to advance its semiconductor companies, the government is crippling their sales to their largest or fastest-growing market.
When research capabilities at US universities need to grow, the government is denying them students. And when the US should be attracting more talent to its shores, the government has made it more difficult for people to immigrate. Thus the US looks committed to a strategy to destroy the scientific and industrial establishment in order to save it."
https://danwang.co/2020-letter/
5. Well said.
"San Francisco might never return. While the Bay Area is incredible, SF is a deteriorating product. Like a bad gym, Covid expired the credit card, and customers are realizing – heck – it’s not worth renewing my membership.
In 2021 and beyond, I imagine people will diffuse to the Bay Area. Just like things were in 2008. Palo Alto, Mountain View, Sonoma, etc. The decade-long mismanagement of SF may be viewed as one of the most squandered opportunities of the modern era.
In closing, I imagine California will remain home for the Megaprojects and other cities like Miami can become generators of new networks. Both highly lucrative – Google and Uber are fine companies."
https://dcgross.com/california-future
6. Good advice.
"One big lesson reinforced to me in 2020 was to stay small, stay nimble. I know that sounds cliche, but I always think of the difference between rideshare options like Uber and Lyft vs all the money that California has burned away trying to get high speed rail up and running. Fixed costs are a bear.
Being able to tap into resources when I need them is of even greater value to me now as we hopefully approach a post-pandemic world. I’ve been trying to refactor everything I do to move away from fixed things to variable ones, and if there’s one bright spot operationally from 2020, it would be this lesson.
Of course, just a year ago today none of us knew what was in store. It could happen again, or something as improbable. So, the best I can do is plan for what I think will happen, pay close attention, and adjust accordingly when the situation changes."
https://semilshah.com/2021/01/04/looking-ahead-to-2021-planning-not-predictions/
7. "In September, the company he helped found in 2017, Compass Pathways, which has developed a synthetic version of psilocybin (the active ingredient in magic mushrooms) and is conducting the world’s first large-scale therapy clinical trial using the drug, listed in New York. His 28% stake, which cost him around $55m over multiple rounds, became worth more than $400m.
Next spring the biotech company he founded Atai Life Sciences — which is pursuing a large range of treatments for mental-health disorders using other more obscure drugs such as DMT, ar-ketamine and ibogaine — is set to go public as well at an expected $1bn-$2bn valuation, according to bankers familiar with the process.
With these high-profile exits and an increasingly large fortune — his investment company, Apeiron Investment Group, manages around $750m of his own money and $600m of others’ and invests in longevity research, biotech, fintech, spacetech, crypto and entertainment — Angermayer is becoming one of Europe’s most powerful and influential tech investors."
https://sifted.eu/articles/christian-angermayer-compass-atai/
8. Uh oh. I’m optimistic but it’s going to be a lot of work and pain next few years to get things back on track.
9. As a history major, I've been fascinated by the Hapsburg dynasty. One of longest existing multinational empires in the world.
https://unherd.com/2021/01/what-did-the-habsburgs-ever-do-for-us/
10. I'd do more than 2% but to each their own.
"Though I have changed my mind on Bitcoin, I haven’t necessarily changed my view on how one should invest in it. I believe that the only prudent way to invest in this asset class without any long-term negative repercussions is to hold no more than 2% of your portfolio in it. I wouldn’t recommend this approach for everyone, but it may work for some people. By limiting your exposure to 2% of your portfolio, you’re unlikely to get rich, but you’re unlikely to go bankrupt either."
https://ofdollarsanddata.com/why-ive-changed-my-mind-on-bitcoin/
11. "In fact, why do we need the voluminous output of tech-oriented newsletters covering startups (by my count, there are at least several thousand newsletters covering our industry)? Why, in a media world that was supposed to be all about the long-tail, does it seem that every new media startup is targeting the same single niche over and over again?
That’s where the cauldrons of gold come in. Media is not unlike many startup markets — there may be infinite needs for diverse products, but there are only a handful of those needs that have serious dollars attached to them.
In media, these are beats like DC politics, or investment banking / M&A, or VC coverage in our quaint little world of startups, where the winners get to own massive audiences and, by extension, massive dollars from subscribers and advertisers. There are thousands of other niches, but they are impoverished with limited readership, users and recourse to revenue.
Put another way, these are tournament markets, where the winners can take all and where it is worth the gamble to have a small chance at a massive outcome rather than a good chance at a mediocre one."
https://techcrunch.com/2021/01/04/the-cauldrons-of-gold-theory-of-media-and-startups/
12. "Yikes! The Chapwood Index shows that the average inflation over the last 5 years is between 8.1% & 12.9% in the top 10 cities. That is a big difference between the 2% inflation assumptions that people make.
One way to think about this is if you are simply generating 8% a year in stock market returns on average, your investment returns are not keeping up with the real rate of inflation in these cities. That is a major problem for the top 50% of Americans who have investable assets, let alone a death sentence for the financial health of the bottom 50% of
Americans who hold no investable assets.
I bring up this idea of true inflation vs the CPI numbers because it is the single most important thing that is impacting the finances of tens of millions of Americans. The continued devaluation of our currency is enriching those who hold investable assets, but punishing those who simply save their wealth in cash. The system is working as designed. It is a feature, not a bug.
Savers are punished and investors are rewarded."
https://pomp.substack.com/p/inflation-is-killing-the-american
13. This is an old one but it does raise some questions/issues with the online ad world.
"Uber eventually cut $120M of its $150M programmatic budget with no impact. The effect was so surprising that they dug deeper and found evidence of fraud. Fake apps, phantom clicks, the works.
Uber’s not alone in finding that their ad spend is well-nigh useless, but the striking fact is how little organizations care. The people that uncover this often have to fight heavy internal resistance, and often lose. In reality, this is what the marketing department is selling. The idea that they have any control over marketing at all.
As Upton Sinclair “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.” This makes you wonder how much isn’t being uncovered because no one is incentivized to find out."
https://indica.medium.com/how-uber-discovered-that-80-of-its-ads-were-useless-bb4d96ee46c8
14. Criticism relevant to the US Government as well.
"As the Atlantic journalist Tom McTague observed back in August, the entire British state has been found wanting, as this country “has found a way to be simultaneously overcentralized and weak at its centre”. The problem is not just the Conservative Government, though that has failed entirely: it is the entire superstructure around it, the Civil Service, Public Health England, the media. The British state and its parasitic para-state are both entirely unfit for purpose.
"Back in the spring, distracted by the global crisis of liberalism, the pandemic was presented as a test between liberalism and authoritarianism. The success of East Asian democracies such as Taiwan and South Korea, however, shows that the crucial distinction is in fact simply that between functioning state bureaucracies and inept ones.
It is noteworthy, perhaps, that Taiwan and South Korea, as well as the also-successful Israel, are neighboured by enemies, and have experience in military mass mobilisation as a result."
https://unherd.com/2021/01/who-are-covids-guilty-men/
15. If this does not make you wary about doing business in China, Not sure what will.
https://www.morningbrew.com/daily/stories/2021/01/04/chinas-onetime-richest-man-jack-ma
16. Okay, if this is not a reason to be optimistic about 2021: Shake Shack’s Korean Fried Chicken Sandwich!
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/05/business/shake-shack-korean-fried-chicken/index.html
17. Lessons from history. Heed them.
"U.S. leaders must speak clearly, forthrightly, and unambiguously to the American people, declaring with both word and deed that insurrection will not be tolerated. Already, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and other prominent senators have used the word “insurrection” to describe today’s events, which is good. And many leading Republicans have condemned the putsch, which is good.
But this must not be lip service. We can’t forget the events of today, or turn the page, or move on, or forgive and forget. Otherwise we risk an even worse coup attempt months or years down the line. If there’s one thing we don’t want to be, it’s 1930s Japan."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/japanese-lessons-for-the-american
18. We are in a LARP world. America on the bleeding edge in a bad way.
"Would it be better to replace fantasy with a proper sense of the real world? Ideally, yes, perhaps, but we’re now seemingly past that. The real world is almost a figment. We live surrounded by the Internet—we live inside it—and the institutionalized truth of the past has lost its hold.
The hierarchical society, religion, the old elites, the natural limits of technology: all the monuments of the past are struggling to survive in the new America. So we will have to be somewhat more sophisticated about these matters. It’s not that all the conspiracies and prophecies multiplying on both the Right and the Left should be taken seriously, but that it has become increasingly difficult to say what should—the real world? "
https://www.city-journal.org/the-role-playing-coup
19. This is incredibly prescient. Media founders is definitely a business opportunity for many people.
https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1347595135450710016
20. These are pretty good predictions for 2021 on the defense & strategy front.
https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/4-predictions-for-defense-strategy-and-technology-in-2021/
21. Go Portugal! I'm maximum bullish here.
22. This is pretty amazing. Also the future of business in my opinion.
"While Gumroad was no longer on track to become a billion-dollar company, I acquired a new asset: time. I used that time to take classes on writing and painting.
Because I was burned out and didn’t want to think about working any more than I needed to, I instituted a no-meeting, no-deadline culture.
For me, it was no longer about growth at all costs, but “freedom at all costs.”
This way, Gumroad stayed profitable, I could take a much-needed break to explore my hobbies, and the product continued to improve over time."
https://sahillavingia.com/work
23. More on the Gumroad workplace. Extreme but think it will be more common which is a good thing.
"The “anti-overtime” rate really gets me thinking as it’s a catalytic mechanism to align the internal expectations with the contractor‘s wallet. We’re here to work no more than 20 hours/week. If you need more time to do whatever, go for it, but it’s at your discretion and at a significantly reduced rate.
Thinking about contractors working no more than 20 hours week, it likely aligns with how much “real” work gets done in a normal 40 hour week. Time spent in meetings, going to lunch, socializing at the water cooler (virtual or otherwise), etc. likely isn’t “creator” time but does have social value and cultural importance. When it’s stripped away and time is only spent on the desired output, what changes?
Overall, No Meetings, No Deadlines, No Full-Time Employees is an incredible read that feels like a new type of business where the working style fills an unmet need for some (many?) people. I believe the trend of contractors, freelancers, gig workers is only accelerating and a company like Gumroad is the logical extreme. The big question: when does something that seems extreme today become commonplace?"
https://davidcummings.org/2021/01/09/high-growth-startup-0-employees/
24. “If you now work into your 70s or 80s in a rapidly changing job market, then… [we must set] time aside to make fundamental investments in re-learning and re-skilling,” the professors argue, adding that technological disruption is making the multi-career pathway inevitable.
Similarly, researchers like David Epstein argue that the dogma of specialism is a farce. In his 2019 book Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World, Epstein demonstrates how star athletes, scientists, and business gurus all actually nurture several interests and skills, rather than a single niche.
Many experts argue that we can — and should — excel in multiple professions across a lifetime."
https://thehustle.co/what-its-like-to-go-through-a-dramatic-career-change/
Listen to this Newsletter: https://listencat.com/the-hard-fork-by-marvin-liao-podcast/
Flash is Trash: Go Stealth in a K-shaped economy
Doom Scrolling through Facebook, Twitter, Youtube & Instagram as we enter the new year of 2021, I am surprised and slightly appalled that influencer marketing is still around. I see some prominent influencers showing off about being in Tulum, Seychelles, Maldives or somewhere luxurious and exotic. Or sitting in front of their Lambo or what not.
Sure, prior to March 2020, where we were in a 10 year economic upcycle this makes sense. The economy was booming and there was a popular perception that rising tide lifts all boats. Flash was in. But in the post Covid world, we are clearly in a K-shaped economy where there are some very clear winners who have assets and good jobs but most of the populace is suffering and or falling behind.
Basically, “If you’re wealthy or have high income, the recession is essentially over for you. If you are less fortunate, you are still struggling to navigate the economic carnage.”
My friend Pomp goes on and covers this point with a lot of good graphs illustrating this big divergence. Worth a read. The K-Shaped Recovery Is Now Undeniable
Add on top of the fact of the financial suffering, we are still in the middle of a pandemic. Millions of people are still in lockdown, or have lost family members and friends. Travel is off limits to most of the populace.
I’m not a hater and count myself as an arch capitalist. I don’t begrudge these folks their success or even the right to show their lifestyle. I actually admire what the lifestyle they have built. But it just seems ill advised right now. If you were smart and/or lucky to pull ahead in 2020, better to keep quiet. Discretion is the better part of valor here. No one wants to see you cavorting around Bali at some luxury resort.
I have even heard of this term “Stealth Wealth.” I pulled this quote from Albert Goldson of the advisory firm Indo-Brazilian Associates:
“For the savvier elements of the upper-class, they've dusted off the playbook and added some more chapters specific to a global pandemic environment. For those relatively untouched financially by the market's wild gyrations, or perhaps who have profited obscenely by it, they've revived the Great Recession stealth wealth tactics of unabashed shopping. Hunkered in their urban or suburban gated-communities they usually send their personal shoppers to boutiques to pick-up and bring the designer merchandise in plain bags so as not to upset their "struggling" neighbors who have gone from billionaires to merely multi-millionaires and are actively downsizing their lifestyles.
So get ready to meet the stealthy wealthy – if you can find them. – because their low profile is so deep under the radar that it's a de facto witness protection program.”
I agree with his perspective that wealthy folks from Latin America or Asia are far ahead of the curve here and understand the risks of standing out. Think about how the Jews were targeted and attacked throughout history (they were targeted as they were wealthy money lenders and bankers, outside of the racist and religious reasons). Or in more recent times, the same thing happened to business-owning ethnic Chinese in Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia & other parts of Southeast Asia.
Remember why the French Revolution or Russian Revolution happened? It happened in times of massive wealth inequality. And because the wealthy were so isolated from the real world, their acts antagonized the suffering general populace. Think Marie Antoinette’s reported infamous quote: “Let them eat cake” during a time of famine in France in 1789. We all know what happened after that. If you do not know, spoiler alert: she was executed by guillotine cheered on by an angry mob.
I don’t think (or hope) something like this will happen here in America or in most parts of the world. But why would you tempt fate. Better to keep working hard and keep a low profile. Also help your friends, family and anyone you can. Donate more to charity. Local food banks are a good choice here. We’re all interconnected here.
While I am not a fan of the inbred European nobility, I do like their concept of Noblesse Oblige: “nobility extends beyond mere entitlements and requires the person who holds such a status to fulfill social responsibilities.” Not sure they actually practiced it but it’s still a good concept nonetheless and something I wish to see more of in our world.
Remember that even if you did fall behind ie. you still have a job and are solvent, you are literally still far ahead of 97% of the world’s population. Very few people have come through unscathed in the 2020 pandemic. Think about how bad things are these days, that the $600 usd stimulus check is a lifeline for many Americans. Many of them put in dire straits due to the government enforced lockdowns. People are especially sensitive these days. Flaunting your amazing life to them seems both stupid and in poor taste. If you ARE going to do this, use your audience to do things like what MrBeast has done, with the recent launch of his MrBeast burgers. A brilliant business AND PR move which helped bring more business to local independent restaurant owners in America.
There is a light at the end of the tunnel, with the vaccine coming. So it should not be like this forever. You can show off all you want when the world is back to some semblance of normality. In the meantime, better to be low profile and stop posting about how awesome your life is on Instagram, Youtube or whatever social media you are on. I write to help people avoid future problems. There is only downside to oversharing in this environment. If we have learned anything from 2020, modesty and humility takes you pretty far.
Listen to this Newsletter: https://listencat.com/the-hard-fork-by-marvin-liao-podcast/
Alt-VC: How the Shine is off Venture Capital and New Models of Startup Financing
As a practitioner it’s been really fun watching the evolution and revolution of the startup ecosystem and its funders. One of the weirdest things (at least to me) in Silicon Valley is the veneration of Venture Capital & love hate relationship between investors and founders.
Venture capital and its practitioners have been held up on this bizarre pedestal. And further influenced by the media (ahem Techcrunch) of celebrating fundraising, founders seem to think this is the only path for building their companies. But this thankfully is changing fast.
In many cases, founders do need a little bit of capital to get started. Yes, there are always “Friends and Family” money as well as angels. But from an institutional perspective this has been a gap for a long time. In the last few years there have been lots of new financing options arising for founders.
Investment Optionality:
Definitely seeing a new movement heralded a few years back by Bryce Roberts over at Indie.VC with a new model of funding. Their investment will convert like normal in case you as founder decide to go down the VC route. If you choose to go down bootstrap/ profitability path, you can repurchase their ownership with a fixed percentage of their gross revenue.
Earnest Capital takes this further. They invest but through their Shared Earnings Agreement.
Once the business hits a certain agreed upon threshold of founders earnings, revenue is shared with the investors until the cap is hit. Same with Indie.VC if the company decides they want to go down the Venture Capital route, the SEAL converts into equity at the next VC round.
Debt/Accounts Receivable Financing:
Basically Accounts Receivable financing where they give you money based on your subscription and revenue. I might add this is debt and non-dilutive financing. Ie. not equity. Which is an option for founders who care about ownership.
Pipe is the leader when it comes to subscription businesses, Founderpath for SaaS specifically. Pollen.vc is tops when it comes to mobile apps.
Crowdfunding:
There is Republic which is a crowdfunding platform where consumer focused startups can raise money directly from their customers. I love this as it leads to better alignment and several of my portfolio companies have gone this direction.
Private Equity-like Capital (but much less mean):
We’ve also seen Tiny Capital, Enduring Ventures, Fork Equity act like Berkshire Hathaway for small software businesses and acquire cash flowing software companies. They provide a very attractive exit option for founders who want to move on.
Bootstrapping:
Let’s not forget that Bootstrapping or self funded entrepreneurship has always been a thing. A highly underrated thing at that. Microconf, the conference and community of self-funded software entrepreneurs have been around for ages. I am a fan of how they have galvanized and educated their bootstrapping founder community. I should add that Atlanta based Mailchimp is doing over 700M usd a year in revenue and estimated to be worth at least $4B dollars. Completely bootstrapped. Also our favorite scheduling tool Calendly which is making $60M in annual revenue is also self-funded. Would love to see more high profile examples of these kinds of companies in the media.
The point I am trying to make is that there are so many paths forward for founders these days. Venture capital is not always the most suited for what you are trying to build. So I hope founders take their time to consider the right path for them. Think for yourself and do not mindlessly follow what is the “supposedly” predominant route that Silicon Valley & the media praise.
Listen to this Newsletter: https://listencat.com/the-hard-fork-by-marvin-liao-podcast/
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads January 3rd, 2021
“Every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end.” —Seneca
Great interview. Love George Clooney.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6InxqMgCj48
2. "All successful startups take a tremendous amount of work. Whether it’s five years of effort (low end) or 10 years of effort (much more common), it takes an incredible amount of time and energy such that it’s best to pursue the biggest, most audacious ideas.
So, the next time you’re evaluating startup ideas, remember that it’s the same amount of work to produce a good outcome as it is to produce a great outcome, so think big."
https://davidcummings.org/2020/12/26/startup-effort-is-insane-so-think-big/
3. Seed stage investing was absolutely bonkers in 2020 despite (or maybe because of the pandemic). I was very surprised like many.
https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/24/us-seed-stage-investing-flourished-during-pandemic/
4. Thought this was damn funny. It happened 4 years ago but its still funny to me.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/christmas-service-accidentally-prints-tupacs-hail-mary-lyrics/
5. Regardless, travel henceforth will not ever be the same.
"But while higher prices will be a reality in the short to medium term, the long-term forecast is for a return to the kind of global travel we knew before this year – probably by mid-2022 or 2023.
Whether we apply the lessons we were more or less forced to learn through lockdown – about sustainability, the fragile state of the planet and the need to curate our future experiences in a more ethical and eco-friendly manner – is still an open question."
https://www.lonelyplanet.com/articles/how-we-will-travel-beyond-2020
6. Russia may be a beneficiary of global warming.
"Around the world, climate change is becoming an epochal crisis, a nightmare of drought, desertification, flooding and unbearable heat, threatening to make vast regions less habitable and drive the greatest migration of refugees in history.
But for a few nations, climate change will present an unparalleled opportunity, as the planet’s coldest regions become more temperate. There is plenty of reason to think that those places will also receive an extraordinary influx of people displaced from the hottest parts of the world as the climate warms."
"And no country may be better positioned to capitalize on climate change than Russia. Russia has the largest land mass by far of any northern nation. It is positioned farther north than all of its South Asian neighbors, which collectively are home to the largest global population fending off displacement from rising seas, drought and an overheating climate. Like Canada, Russia is rich in resources and land, with room to grow."
https://www.propublica.org/article/the-big-thaw-how-russia-could-dominate-a-warming-world
7. Death Star is right. At least in cybersecurity terms.
"This week Microsoft took a series of dramatic steps against the recent SolarWinds supply chain attack. In the size, speed and scope of its actions, Microsoft has reminded the world that it can still muster firepower like no one else as a nearly-overwhelming force for good."
8. A man after my own heart.
"As much as Popovich knows about hoops, he really knows food and wine. "I don't know that he doesn't know more about wine than he does about basketball," former Spurs assistant coach P.J. Carlesimo says. Popovich scouts restaurants and wine lists as obsessively as he might any opponent. Before games, in his office, he can be found watching the Food Network. Sommeliers and restaurateurs claim to owe their careers to the man.
As absurd as it seems, one of the greatest basketball coaches in history might be more revered in the culinary world."
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26524600/secret-team-dinners-built-spurs-dynasty
9. Great profile on MrBeast. Crushing it.
"Over the past four years, Donaldson‘s channel, MrBeast, has amassed more than 48 million subscribers. In the last 28 days, people have spent more than 34 million hours watching his videos. On Dec. 12, MrBeast was named Creator of the Year at the Streamy Awards, YouTube’s equivalent of the Oscars.
The consistent success of MrBeast’s videos has gotten the attention of the YouTube establishment. Last year, every video he posted eclipsed 20 million views. Such consistency is unparalleled, even among YouTube’s biggest stars. “He lives on a different planet than the rest of the YouTube world,” said Casey Neistat, a filmmaker turned YouTuber."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-22/who-is-mrbeast-meet-youtube-s-top-creator-of-2020
10. Shows that it is still early days in IoT.
"Almost four years ago, France’s Sigfox was riding high as a newly anointed unicorn and seemed to signal the potential of the internet of things (IoT). These days, SigFox is a cautionary tale about how too much hype can lead to expectations that are difficult to realize."
https://venturebeat.com/2020/12/23/how-sigfox-hopes-to-rebound-after-becoming-a-cautionary-iot-tale/
11. "Once a tech startup has reached the growth stage, VCs (and increasingly private equity firms) from Silicon Valley and around the world are unequivocally in play. As such, a lack of willingness on the part of U.S. investors to back a Canadian company should rightfully raise questions. Assuming that the company is competing in a large market, a failure to raise growth capital from any Silicon Valley VC means that no top-tier investor believes that the company will be able to generate venture-scale returns.
To believe that a hometown VC would somehow see something at the market expansion stage that the most experienced startup investors in the world all missed is, frankly, hubris."
https://ckneumann.medium.com/in-a-remote-first-world-do-we-still-need-domestic-vcs-fee1a3a65cd9
12. Some great investing lessons here.
"George observed that while most fund managers began the year thinking about which stocks they should own to make the most money, he began the year with the knowledge that roughly 50% of his positions were mistakes, tried to carefully think about which of those mistakes would cost him the most money and eliminate those positions.
Minimizing mistakes is essential given that almost all investors — even the best ones — are wrong circa 50% of the time. I really love the humility inherent to this mentality, which is aligned with my increasing belief that “I don’t know” are the three most important words in investing, not “margin of safety.” One can always be wrong, no matter how much work has been done or big the “margin of safety” appears to be."
13. Elad Gil & Kevin Hartz. Literally two of the best operator-investors in Silicon Valley. Bar None. Seriously.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJBQUchuwJo
14. A good man here.
"The COVID crisis is what keeps the Mayor awake these days, and he is often buzzing with so many thoughts and ideas about how to help solve it that he taps them out on a phone by his bedside in the wee hours of the morning. “I’ve been through some shit in my day,” Fieri says, “but in a million years, you never could have told me a story as horrific, as decimating, as this has been.”
In late March, Fieri partnered with the National Restaurant Association Educational Foundation to launch the Restaurant Employee Relief Fund, which has raised $21.5 million to distribute in $500 grants to laid-off restaurant workers, a move that landed the Mayor on this year’s “Bloomberg 50” list."
https://www.grubstreet.com/article/guy-fieri-restaurant-relief-profile.html
15. Go Taiwan. I would argue the best place to live in 2020 & probably 2021.
16. "With trillions of dollars of cash sitting on the sidelines looking for return and trillions more being pumped into the market by governments around the world, nothing is too expensive. Instead, what’s more important is finding that which is unique. That of which we can print no more. That which is finite."
https://meltdem.substack.com/p/bitcoin-is-a-collectors-items
17. "With these three “attention merchants” competing for consumers’ increasingly scarce time, it’s likely that music streaming will struggle to grow even when things return to normal. We know that songs are getting shorter, and without more songs being consumed, music is already losing the battle for attention."
18. Very good benchmarks for Net Retention Rate in SaaS.
https://www.saastr.com/whats-a-good-net-retention-rate-in-saas/
19. "There are three states on the 0% State Tax list that I expect many corporations, VC firms, and HNW people will move to in the next 12 months. They are Florida, Texas, and Washington (State). The more adventurous will move to Alaska, Nevada, South Dakota, and Wyoming.
Distributed work is here. And State Taxes are now a competitive disadvantage."
https://feld.com/archives/2020/12/the-great-hq-migration.html
20. This is quite a timely article. The point is "not timing the market, the point is time in the market!"
"Regardless of which risky asset classes you have in your portfolio, as this post illustrates, buying near all-time highs should not be a cause for concern. Of course, you may get unlucky with an asset class during a particular period of time, however, if you own a diversified portfolio, the impact of such an occurrence should be minimal."
https://ofdollarsanddata.com/should-you-buy-an-all-time-high/
21. Sometimes the simple stuff is the best. Love watching how this could open up startups to a whole new group of people.
22. This is such a great interview. So many knowledge bombs here. I strongly recommend listening to this interview with my friend Shaan Puri (who also has an amazing podcast show as well).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gaqu_YrfXuQ
23. "The hangover effect in the Bay Area became more dynamic as this year closes. Tens of thousands of households left the city of San Francisco. Many emigrated to surrounding counties, driving up real estate prices even more. The stretch of wildfires that surrounded the Bay Area in September proved to be a knockout punch for many residents — it was a really tough time. Imagine a dual-income household with small kids in school via Zoom, parents working via Zoom, and stuck inside in 100 degree weather with 8-10 days of extremely unhealthy air quality. I can’t prove it, but this tipped many people over. Once the fires subsided, major issues remained.
Seeing newer companies reach scale in a remote and distributed manner (like GitLab), having the ability to buy/sell real estate online with networks like Opendoor, the impending impact of California’s and San Francisco’s looming budget crises, the impact of SALT deductions being stripped, and with much of the industry adapting quickly to a video-first environment, for the first time a considerable number of people I know who would have never left the Bay Area began to spread out — Europe, Seattle, Austin, and so many other places around the world."
https://semilshah.com/2020/12/30/looking-back-on-tech-startups-and-vc-in-2020/
24. I so want to go to Uzbekistan to visit. The Silk Road.
25. Mario Lopez: he has definitely aged well. Saved by the Bell was one of my favorite tv shows when I was growing up.
“I never was one of those kids, like, ‘Oh, I have to be on TV,’ or ‘I want to perform and it's in my heart,’ ” Lopez says. “I wanted just to make enough money to not have to burden my parents with paying for college.” Though he got an inauspicious start—for Saved by the Bell, he was paid $3,500 an episode—he wound up being so successful that he got too busy with work to ever attend a university.
“I say no to a lot of stuff…[but] when you grow up without money, you have two attitudes when you start making some,” Lopez says. “You either think: Well, all right, I've made it and I'm just gonna get flossy and kind of rest on my laurels. Or you can think, which is what I do: You know what? This shit can go away like that”—he snaps for emphasis. “And I don't ever want to regret it. I want to keep striking while the iron is hot.”
26. "Nothing got built by cynicism. “You can’t do it!” has never created a company, except perhaps to trigger a founder to start something in revolt at the fusillade of negativity.
It takes time though to build. It takes time to take an early product and grow it. It takes time to build a startup ecosystem and expand it into something self-sustaining. Perhaps most importantly, it takes extraordinary effort and hard work, and not just from singular individuals but a whole team and community of people to succeed. The future is malleable — and bets do pay off. So we all need to stop asking what’s the problem and pointing out flaws, and perhaps ask, what future are we building toward? What’s the bet I’m willing to back?"
https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/29/startup-cynicism/
27. YUP!
"Founders, investors and bankers say they are entering the new year with optimism, hopeful the vaccine will be distributed quickly and enthused about expected tech IPOs. Few said they were concerned with rising valuations and stock prices, despite parallels with the 2000 tech boom.
Puncturing the sense of jubilation is the knowledge that it’s not widely shared. Outside the tech bubble, thousands of small businesses are still working to recover from coronavirus-related losses. Millions of laid-off workers are searching for a new gig. And more than 330,000 people have died of the virus in the U.S. alone.
“I would have never guessed that one of the most devastating global pandemics would yield one of the most speculative frenzies in the public market for tech in history,” said Peter Hébert, general partner of Lux Capital, a venture firm he co-founded in 2000.
“This is the most bizarre year I’ve ever encountered.”
28. This is incredibly touching. Seems apt for the close of 2020.
29. This is quite funny. Miami is a different beast than SF Bay Area.
"Others fear that an influx of backpack-wearing venture capital disciples will do what it does everywhere: raise housing costs astronomically, increase the douchebag factor in the region and generally make life miserable for everybody else.
All we know is, the tech industry folks have no idea what they’re in for if they move to Miami. Because Miami is not Silicon Valley. We don’t have robots; we have fist-sized insects. We don’t nurture incubators; we fight toilet iguanas. We didn’t spend our youth getting in touch with our spirituality via MDMA at Burning Man. We spent it mainlining S’mores-covered bacon on a stick at Santa’s Enchanted Forest as we gazed up at the giant Christmas tree that plays Pitbull songs.”
https://www.miamiherald.com/miami-com/funny-stories/article248132210.html#storylink=cpy
30. Actually I am really eager to visit Pakistan when all this Covid mess is over. I think this is one of the most underrated countries and economies in the world right now (along with Uzbekistan).
"With all my friends and all the media outlets I knew warning me against traveling to Pakistan, the moment I stood in the queue to board my first flight to Islamabad, I admit I wasn’t sure whether I was in the right place. It’s very hard to extract yourself from all the common preconceptions about Pakistan as a person living in the Western world and consuming Western media. After all, the one single image of the country we are given is that of an unsafe, unwelcoming place – which is of course very wrong.
But as I stood in that queue, I had people approach me, asking where I was from and whether this was my first time in Pakistan. Those wrong preconceptions quickly began to wither away before I even landed on Pakistani soil. And from what I know, this seems to be a pretty standard change of sentiment among foreign visitors."
31. "The lesson of 2020 is not that we’re doomed, necessarily, only that doom feels like a legitimate possibility."
https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/22201977/2020-doomsday-apocalypse-astrologers-memes-investigation
32. I am so going to Uzbekistan in 2022.
33. "30/50/20. On median, 30% of opex is R&D, 47% is on sales and marketing, and 22% is on G&A. The rule is therefore “30/50/20” may be more accurate."
https://blossomstreetventures.medium.com/saas-margins-where-they-should-be-ad90c44c1536
34. "I think great media businesses are massively underrated and misunderstood in technology circles.
In my experience with Hardbound, Gimlet, Substack, and now the Everything bundle, I’ve come to believe that content can create incredibly strong moats. There are properties inherent to narratives and ideas that make them naturally powerful — kind of like how social networks, marketplaces, and platforms are inherently power-prone.
But not every media business benefits from them. There are winners and losers."
https://divinations.every.to/p/why-content-is-king
35. Word to the wise, founders. Take everything you read in the tech press with a BIG grain of salt.
"As an early-stage founder, there’s no easier way to become depressed than reading the tech press.
The figures look larger than what you’re discussing with potential investors. The founders all seem to describe a process that went much quicker than yours. The rounds are always oversubscribed.
When you’re deep in the trenches of fundraising, pushing hard to get that first investor to believe in the market you’re taking on, the product you’ve built for it, and, well, you… It can be tempting to treat those stories as benchmarks.
Not only is that not helpful, often it’s straight out misleading.
Startup press releases aren’t written to tell the exact story; they’re optimised for things like hiring and fundraising."
https://thefamily.substack.com/p/everybody-kinda-lies
36. Pretty good tech predictions for 2021: especially keeping in mind how off we all were on 2020.
https://tomtunguz.com/2021-predictions/
37. What a trip!
"Since August 2018, I walked through Italy, Slovenia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. In each of these countries I spoke to everyone — about everything. I interviewed historians, tourist guides, peasants, hermits, and self-proclaimed witches. I observed the mundane, simple things: the way they cook chicken, the way they make their coffee, the games their children play, what their toys look like.
I tried to pay close attention to everything, always keeping in mind the goal of my trip: to study human life."
https://www.calvertjournal.com/articles/show/12250/silk-road-by-foot-central-asia-caucasus-adventure
38. Lots of great insights in this long write up of 2020. Worth a read.
"Now as we prepare to welcome 2021, we are changed in many ways. Perhaps most significantly, the distinctions between our physical and digital worlds have largely disintegrated. We now work and we live online just as much, if not more, than we do offline. We may have always been heading this way, but this year significantly — and irreversibly — accelerated our pace. Transitioning to this new normal comes with tremendous opportunity, but we must remain aware that some will require assistance to make the adjustment.
For me — and I hope for you — the year also offered opportunities to pause and reflect on which aspects of that real, offline world we are willing to fight to preserve."
https://om.co/the-longest-year-2020/
39. Valencia, Alicante & Lisbon show up on top. Iberian peninsula rules.
"At the other end of the scale, a quartet of Spanish cities placed in the top 10. Expats gave Valencia, Spain’s third-largest city, the world’s highest score based on its climate, housing affordability, and health care. Just down the list — and around 100 miles down the coast — Alicante, a city of 330,000 people, came in second place. Malaga and Madrid earned 6th and 9th place."
40. "When we look back at 2020 in the business world, we’ll remember it as the year online shopping stopped being the future of retail and catapulted firmly into the present. This was the year that local governments forced us to give up in-store shopping for weeks or months, and then when we had an opportunity to return when stores reopened, we mostly kept shopping online anyway."
https://www.vox.com/recode/22204578/2020-ecommerce-growth-retail-shopping-changed-forever
41. All makes sense to me. About time too.
https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/millennials-poised-to-remake-investing-4992812/
42. "This year has cemented the notion that crypto assets are not only not going away but will be integral to our financial lives going forward. As we close out a very trying and historic 2020, the future has never looked brighter for bitcoin and crypto asset ownership and use."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/governments-start-hodl-bitcoin-2021-150043234.html
43. Very interesting forecasts. I think things get back to normal in 2022. But hope he is right on the 2nd half of 2021.
"The Covid Pandemic will end in the developed world in 2021. I think we will see the end of the Covid Pandemic in the US sometime in the second quarter. I believe the US will work out the challenges we are having getting out of the gate and will be vaccinating at least 40mm people a month in the US in the first quarter."
"The twin terrors of the Covid Pandemic and the Climate Crisis will drive the great US migration of the 21st century and we are already experiencing it. We will see it accelerate in 2021. If, because of what we learned in the Covid Pandemic, a good job no longer requires someone to live in a low lying flood-prone city like Miami or NYC or a city that is burning like SF or LA, we will see many people in the US choose to leave those places and adopt new homes that are less impacted by the climate crisis.
We call this “adapting to the climate crisis” at USV, and this will be a huge investable trend for many years to come."
https://avc.com/2021/01/what-is-going-to-happen-in-2021/
44. I've always liked Miami. It seems to be the place to be these days.
"Miami is among that set of curious characters: the urban entrepôt (from the French word for ‘warehouse’). Whether Havana or Beirut in their day, Hong Kong before the Chinese decided to squash it under their bootheels, or Singapore or Dubai now, the world has always featured gateways that intermediate two worlds. Usually this city-state middle-man straddles some large hegemonic power and some (culturally foreign) ‘near abroad’. And that’s what Miami is: it’s the intersection in the Venn diagram between American business culture and rule of law, and Latin American culture and vitality (not to mention a market of 650 million consumers and a combined GDP of over $5 trillion).
To most Americans Miami might mean beaches and bling and palm trees, but in Latin America it’s something else altogether: a combined bolthole, bank and bazaar....The city hosts a slew of multinationals and their regional offices, from Proctor & Gamble to Facebook. Brickell Avenue is a sort of Latin American Wall Street, lined with the logos of every major commercial bank. If you do business in LatAm, you’ve got a Miami office."
https://www.thepullrequest.com/p/next-year-in-miami
45. "Traditional financial products & services are single player, which makes sense since people tend to expect a high degree of privacy around their finances, and products built for individuals are much simpler to design, market, and activate.
However, many new fintech services are built around a subscription-model, where three numbers tend to dominate: acquisition costs, average revenue per user, and churn rate. The last, of course, is a heavy determinate of lifetime value.
Multiplayer products & services have a number of advantages.
Multiplayer products are inherently viral, pulling more people into the system and lowering average acquisition costs. More importantly, multiplayer products are fundamentally stickier, leading to lower churn rates and higher lifetime values."
https://adamnash.blog/2020/11/16/fintech-2025-the-next-wave/
46. One of few good things that has come out of 2020.
An entrepreneurial renaissance is here.
https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/an-entrepreneurial-renaissance-is-here-4291673/
47. Miami: the place to be these days.
"Operationally it makes sense to be in the same time zone, with competitive talent and at a fraction of the cost. Another benefit: Miami talent understands both LATAM and the U.S., generally speaks both English and Spanish fluently, and is very happy to live in a place where rent isn’t prohibitive, homeownership is approachable, and the beach is a short drive away.
An estimated 300,000 people move to Florida every year. In Miami, there’s a growing trend of people looking for a better quality of life and a manageable cost of living. Even locals who once fled north due to lack of opportunities are starting to return to their home state."
https://www.wework.com/ideas/city-guides/miami-usa-gateway-to-latin-america
48. "Many things take time. How did we go from boring orchards to the Bay Area tech scene? It's very comfortable for me to think in terms of 10 to 12 years. That’s the time horizon for just one fund, for example. So I think the investment in Miami will pay dividends or is getting increasingly likely to pay dividends. And especially over the extended timeframe, I have found it incredibly easy to convince people to try it. One of the reasons why is the opportunity costs during COVID of trying a new geo are significantly smaller.
Certainly the investors are very willing to move here. If you have a thesis about how much location matters in the history of Silicon Valley, it matters a great deal. Sand Hill Road is about the most boring geographical location on the planet. And the only reason people know about it is because a bunch of venture capitalists co-located there 40 years ago. So some of the high-risk, high-reward venture capitalists are here. Some publicly announced, some not. But I have partners from many, if not most, of my real competitors here now. I don’t think the venture capital community is going to be a limiting factor here. There are entrepreneurs who are already entrepreneurs that are moving here."
https://www.thepullrequest.com/p/drum-major-of-the-miami-parade
49. Mexico City (and Mexico at large) is a good place to hang out for a while.
“There were weeks where I just wouldn’t leave my house, just working all day — my mental health was definitely suffering,” said Mr. George, 31, who manages business operations for a technology start-up.
So when a Mexican friend said he was traveling to Mexico City in November, Mr. George decided to tag along. Now, he’s calling the Mexican capital home — part of an increasing number of foreigners, mainly Americans, who are heading to Mexico, for a short trip or a longer stay to escape restrictions at home.
They are drawn partly by the prospect of bringing a little normalcy to their lives in a place where coronavirus restrictions have been more relaxed than at home, even as cases of Covid-19 shatter records. Some of them are staying, at least for a while, and taking advantage of the six-month tourist visa Americans are granted on arrival."
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/02/world/americas/virus-mexico-visitors.html
50. Lots of great nuggets here. Worth a read as we enter 2021. How & where to be spend money to maximize happiness
"The key takeaways? First, treat time as the commodity. Research suggests that people who think of their time as a limited resource in its own right are more likely to derive joy from life’s simple pleasures, like eating sweets or talking to a friend.
Second, if you’re splurging on a time-saving purchase, use those extra minutes to do something that lifts your mood. Studies on time and happiness show people typically experience more positive emotions during leisure activities compared to when they’re working or doing household chores. Active and social forms of leisure, like exercising and volunteering, are also linked to greater happiness compared to more passive activities, like watching TV or napping.
“The more that people are using their time to engage in social interactions to cultivate relationships, the more happiness they’re going to get from buying time,” Kumar explains. That’s why buying experiences is another way to maximize joy from spending."
https://www.popsci.com/story/science/how-to-spend-money-happiness/
51. This is a movement I'm glad to see resurfacing. Not what you see in popular media but very important for the future. Techno-Optimism.
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/techno-optimism-roundup
Listen to this Newsletter: https://listencat.com/the-hard-fork-by-marvin-liao-podcast/
The Gartner Hype Cycle & Trough of Disillusionment for Investing: WHY I Hate Hype
Hopefully anyone in technology knows about the famous (or infamous) Gartner Hype Cycle.
Silicon Valley is driven by Envy, hype and bandwagon jumping. FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) is the name of the game. Yes, it’s a stupid game but its still a game. And a very profitable one but only those who have access and are established can effectively play this game. In Banking it is Goldman Sachs, in Venture Capital it is Sequoia, Founders Fund, Accel or one of the multitudes of top tier branded VC funds. What we call Kingmakers, who have the clout, money and brand to set trends or if they are late, to push (or attract) the best clients/founders/companies to them.
For everyone else, basically us normal investors, we have to figure out another edge. Thinking of trends, there are two major inflection points of entry where the money is made. Being super early, like at being in Crypto in 2011 at the “Technology Trigger” point. This is usually discovered by investor folks who are fanatical about the space and on the ground.
But the bigger opportunity and much easier play was shown to me by David Weekly, a prolific operator and entrepreneur and underrated angel investor. It’s actually looking at trends one or two years after its peak and when all the dilettante founders have quit. Also when almost every other investor has left the sector. This is when the real hard core fanatics are still building. And more importantly, also when the technology and market has slowly caught up to the hype from the peak. I have personally seen this through countless trends that have shown up in Silicon Valley: Cleantech, AR/VR, Chatbots, Food delivery, Crypto pop up top of mind in recent years.
This is why I tend to run far away when an investment is seen as “safe.” When investors are flocking in with dozens (or more) of directly competitive ventures being funded. With MBA type “Get rich quick” founders jumping into the gold rush and the media is gushing. I admit timing is hard to do whether in public equity investing or startups. And especially in early stage startup investing, where the additional factor of the team & founder being really critical.
But having the filter of where the trend is, is important and helpful. Technology innovation always leads consumer/customer adoption by years. The UX/UI usually sucks and people have highly ingrained habits and a very hard time changing. No surprise that tweens and young adults are usually the first ones to adopt new technologies, not older people like me. Or why startups are the first to use new technology or marketing channels, not the big enterprises in the Fortune 500.
Timing really does matter and that is why when something is so hyped up (or overhyped), as an early stage investor, you need to run the other way. The really interesting point to evaluate a trend (and you really need to do your homework here) is when almost everyone else has given up or written off the sector as a whole.
Listen to this Newsletter: https://listencat.com/the-hard-fork-by-marvin-liao-podcast/
The Fish Rots from the Head
If you want to understand the reason an organization is failing, look at who is running it. We don’t have to look much further than across the business world or government to see this. Yes, geopolitical trends, new competitors, changing consumer behavior, systemic breakdowns all affect these organizations. But what is most important is how the organization reacts to these challenges. The tone and reaction of the organization to the crisis is set by the leadership.
Here is a most recent and still ongoing example.
In 2019, there was a list of countries most prepared for an epidemic, ranked by the United Nations.
Number 1: United States of America
Number 2: United Kingdom
Source: https://www.statista.com/chart/20629/ability-to-respond-to-an-epidemic-or-pandemic/
As I write this at the end of 2020, I don't know whether to laugh or cry. The USA and UK have been unmitigated disaster zones with their hospitals full and the sickness/ death rate at some of the highest levels in the world. Add to this the lockdowns and the consequent economic declines. The universal factor here is the incompetent, buffoonish leadership at the top of these countries. Or some could argue, the complete absence of leadership. Period.
What we have learned from this? It does not matter if you have copious resources. Whether it’s money, the intelligence and education level of your people, the possession of advanced technology. The catalyst to mobilize all of these resources is leadership. It took a global pandemic to surface how this leadership was lacking in so many organizations across the world. It also showed us how valuable true leadership really is as was shown in places as wide ranging like Taiwan, Vietnam, New Zealand & Australia.
As we have gotten past the shock & awaken to this truth before us, we will see many people rise up to the many challenges being surfaced. These challenges range from ones related to the pandemic, and the numerous large economic, societal or climate/ environmental ones as well. That makes me hopeful for our future.
2020 was a brutal year. Most of us would agree it really sucked. But the year is almost over and we can start to put it behind us. Let’s just make sure we remember all the lessons we learned this year and move confidently into 2021!
Listen to this Newsletter: https://listencat.com/the-hard-fork-by-marvin-liao-podcast/
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads December 27th, 2020
“Celebrate endings—for they precede new beginnings.”-Jonathan Lockwood Huie
"The good news for anyone in traditional media seeking to stake out on their own is that generations of digital creators have paved the way. Internet culture writers have chronicled these struggles, which offer valuable lessons for navigating this new environment. But in 2021, I think we’ll see a lot of independent media figures learn things the hard way."
https://www.niemanlab.org/2020/12/journalists-will-learn-influencing-isnt-easy/
2. "Traveling has taught me there is no one right way to make, save, and invest money. Every country has its own traditional beliefs and wealth generation creators.
But I did notice a couple themes across the world.
The first is to control your lifestyle costs. Whether that’s by moving to a more affordable area or tightening your proverbial “budget belt,” financial longevity starts by saving at least 10% of your income.
Second, your money should work for you. You can buy property, start a business or learn how to earn passive income. Just do whatever you need to do to ensure you’re not dependent on just one source of income."
https://time.com/nextadvisor/in-the-news/china-uk-us-personal-finance/
3. This guy got away at the right time, leaving CD Projekt & their big 2020 gaming disaster Cyberpunk.
"Michał Kiciński comes across like a man who values his Buddhist beliefs more than his tenuous billionaire status—which he achieved twice during Cyberpunk’s recent hype cycle. (Two weeks ago, Kiciński was worth an estimated $1.2 billion. His stake in CD Projekt has now fallen to $750 million.)
“I'm not in the position to advise anybody,” he told Forbes on the phone as Cyberpunk 2077 neared its crunch period in July. “Of course [it’s] very close to me. I see CD Projekt as my child, which is now mature and goes by itself.”
4. This really is amazing. Influencer starting a national burger restaurant chain. Seriously amazing & impressive. Apparently they had download & delivery issues because it was so popular.
https://twitter.com/GavinSBaker/status/1340650100285124609
5. "In 2007, he founded Fisker Automotive, which made one of the world’s first plug-in cars, before failing spectacularly six years later.
Now he’s back–and three things are different. First and foremost, he has a vital new partner: his wife, cofounder and Fisker Inc. CFO Geeta Gupta-Fisker. Second, his Los Angeles-based company is public this time around, raising more than $1 billion in an October 2020 IPO. And finally, Fisker’s stock price, up 56% since its debut, has made both Henrik and Geeta billionaires, each worth about $1.1 billion as of Friday’s market close.
The auto industry has seen father-son and sibling leadership teams, but Fisker Inc.’s CEO-CFO combo is the fast-changing sector’s first husband and wife power couple."
6. Really surprised at how big this industry is. But I guess I should not be. Markets are so big in general these days.
"By one estimate, the global wig, weave, and hair extension market is worth ~$7B — and it’s projected to grow to $10B+ by 2024 (an 8% CAGR).
In the United States, these products have long been popular among sufferers of hair loss, African American and Orthodox Jewish communities, and entertainment professionals.
But in recent years, celebrities and social media influencers have attracted a new subset of human hair consumers."
https://thehustle.co/the-economics-of-the-human-hair-trade/
7. "But it’s not just the big things we’ve lost. We lost little things like going to the gym or going on vacation. I spent my whole life working so I had the freedom and flexibility to travel the world and now I’m grounded with everyone else, looking at the same four walls, day in and day out.
The only solution is to adapt and adapt now."
"But have something to hope for, something you’re working towards: a project; a destination in the future; a better body; travel; a new partner; a career change. Have a goal. Any goal. The bigger the better. But little ones work too.
But this is not about wishing for it only. It’s about doing something towards it every day."
https://medium.com/@dan.jeffries/keeping-it-together-when-things-fall-apart-8208a7f060e1
8. Love and people are strange. This is one of the most wacky stories I've read in a long time.
https://www.elle.com/life-love/a35021224/martin-shkreli-christie-smythe-pharma-bro-journalist/
9. WOW, Nathan Myhyrvold was prescient.
https://twitter.com/corry_wang/status/1340869586397372417
10. "This future, Christakis predicts, will not come until society has had time to distribute the vaccine, probably through 2021, and had time to recover from the socioeconomic devastation it has wrought, probably through 2023. But the vision he lays out for 2024 and beyond is one filled with experiences pined for in isolation: packed stadiums, crowded nightclubs and flourishing arts.
“In 2024, all of those [pandemic trends] will be reversed,” he said. “People will relentlessly seek out social interactions.” That could include “sexual licentiousness,” liberal spending, and a “reverse of religiosity.”.
11. "I think it takes the investment community a long time to understand any newly public company. At the end of the day, the IPO is just one day, right? What really matters is how companies perform over the next 10 or 20 years.
I would look at Microsoft or Amazon or more recently, Facebook, whose [share price] dropped 50% in the week or two following its offering and Facebook has gone on to be an incredible business. I have no idea what the market is going to do tomorrow [or] the day after. But over a decade, if you can really build a great sustainable business that compounds, it all comes out in the wash."
12. "Investors are trying to recalibrate where seed valuations should be. $100B is the new $10B. $10B is the new $1B. Does that mean ultimate outcome potential for all these companies is higher, so valuations can move up with it? But are those public market values realistic? Are we all using comps, but the comps themselves are totally unrealistic and being messed around with by market structure? Not value?
Does that mean a lot of seed investors can shift their mandates a bit with more flexibility? Does that mean we should start participating in these double seeds?"
https://crossstack.substack.com/p/the-double-seed-and-recalibrating
13. "interviews with two dozen people close to Alloy tell a more unsettled story that goes beyond just infighting over a few employee firings. Alloy seemed doomed to fail by this winter, people close to the company described to Recode, because of intense internal strife and sharp external mistrust. The staff coup just accelerated that conclusion, compressing what would have likely been a years-long reckoning over Democrats’ lagging data operation into a week-long combustion.
Backed with $35 million — half from Silicon Valley celebrity billionaire Reid Hoffman — Alloy was pictured as the left’s belated big money answer to the right’s supremacy in the world of political data. Hoffman and his aides wanted to build a sophisticated operation that could outmaneuver Republicans in the foxholes of the data wars. It was such a priority for Hoffman that it was his biggest public bet since he became involved in politics after Donald Trump’s win in 2016.
It didn’t quite work out as his team hoped, serving instead as a public study of how billionaires’ political experiments can fall short of expectations."
https://www.vox.com/recode/22175186/alloy-drama-reid-hoffman-democratic-data-startup
14. Fascinating space & emerging industry of Psychedelics. This is one one of the most exciting areas for humanity to develop.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/23/peter-thiel-backs-psychedelics-startup-atai.html
15. Lots to learn in the USA from how the state of Vermont is handling the pandemic.
https://www.vox.com/2020/11/19/21541810/vermont-covid-19-coronavirus-social-distancing
16. Well said.
"Whatever the risk to ourselves, however, we don’t take vaccines to protect ourselves. We take vaccines to protect everyone, to avoid becoming a fiber in the web.
In May of 1940, the British sailors and bargemen who set course for France did not know if U-boats, bombers, or bad weather would await them. They didn’t need to know. They knew their countrymen were at risk, and that was enough.
Today, it feels as if we’ve lost sight of the connection between sacrifice on behalf of our country and the personal prosperity and liberties we are blessed with. But we’d do well to remember that they weren’t really blessed upon us — they were earned."
https://www.profgalloway.com/a-call-for-help
17. Been meaning to read "The Alchemist"
"DURING THE OFFSEASON, Diggs put himself through what he calls a "personal reevaluation." The goal, he says, was "self-healing," and the process involved several days of reflection, isolation and reading. One of the books he chose was "The Alchemist."
The novel, written by Brazilian Paulo Coelho, is a tale about a young shepherd in Andalusia who literally follows his dreams. The story focuses on the importance of destiny and belief. It spoke to Diggs. "It's probably the best book I've ever read," he says.
The idea that each of us has a personal legend we should be chasing -- chasing, as opposed to idly hoping will someday happen..."
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/30532083/stefon-diggs-buffalo-miracle-man
18. "Reddit is one of my favorite places on the internet. It's like an early version of a metaverse, where people come together to create interconnected worlds, each with its own culture.
That interconnectedness is what makes Reddit great, but for the system to work, each community has to conform to the one-size-fits-all mold of a subreddit. One size fits all, but it doesn't fit anyone particularly well. That creates unbundling opportunities.
There are hundreds of wonderful startups waiting to be built using this simple strategy: create a product that serves the unmet needs of an individual subreddit."
https://latecheckout.substack.com/p/the-ultimate-guide-to-unbundling
19. I especially like the idea of "Liquid employment" & "Living Online
"Investors would never choose to invest in just one company; the risk is too concentrated. Instead, they build portfolios. Over time, workers will invest their time in a similar way.
Currently, liquid employment is largely impractical for workers and employers alike. But the same thing could have been said about remote work at one point. Spreading risk over a few companies makes sense for employees. That means that the companies that want an edge to hire the best people for a given role will eventually adopt it."
https://junglegym.substack.com/p/nine-trends-that-will-shape-our-careers-in-2021
20. Not a good thing btw.
"A big % of graduates of elite colleges take such jobs, and the other jobs they take don’t make nearly as much money. The other big employers, such as hedge funds, private equity firms, and tech firms, choose similarly. And elite colleges use similar criteria to pick their students. So this is a window into how we pick a big % of the top elites in the US today."
https://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/11/what-makes-prestige.html
21. "Brose and others have made a strong case that over the past two decades, while the US focused on overmatched battles (Libya, Iraq, non-state actors) and grew complacent with its single-superpower status, our near-peer competitors, Russia and China, focused on the US. They studied our methods and legacy systems, identified weaknesses, and developed a new type of warfare – combining speed, cyber, and new technologies – designed to exploit those vulnerabilities (the recent FireEye and SolarWind breaches are just one example).
We’re racing to catch up."
https://www.bahcall.com/letter-how-to-win-the-next-war/
22. "This year’s growth is also part of a longer-term trend for Swedish game developers, which have seen their sales more than double to 24.3 billion kronor ($2.9 billion) between 2014 and 2019, according to the trade group the Swedish Games Industry.
“There’s a notable indie scene in Sweden, with quite a lot of studios and relatively good access to venture capital,” said Tomas Otterbeck, an analyst at Redeye AB in Stockholm."
23. Great write up on MrBeast Burgers!
"With excess capacity at casual dining and a need for new demand, celebrity-driven virtual dining has emerged as a new prospect for a suffering industry. It just might work."
"Before year’s end, you’ll see Marques Brownies and Dobrik’s Dumplings. And while the creators will certainly line their pockets, Robert Earl’s foresight into this marketing strategy is due to revolutionize an industry crippled by the lack of foot traffic that leaders like Kat Cole once relied upon to fuel growth in the industry.
MrBeast wasn’t the first creator to put his mark on a fast casual product. But this partnership will be the most transformative for an industry in need."
https://2pml.com/2020/12/21/mrbeast/
24. The new face of war. Drones better integrated into war fighting tactics.
“The expanding array of relatively low-cost drones can offer countries air power at a fraction of the cost of maintaining a traditional air force. The situation in Nagorno-Karabakh also underscored how drones can suddenly shift a long-standing conflict and leave ground forces highly exposed.”
25. "Developing a diverse toolkit of mental models for investing is a proven path to success. Nicholas Sleep, Charlie Munger and James Anderson, mavericks when it comes to investment thinking, are evidence of such. The learnings these Masters have extracted from nature, biology, physics, psychology, economics, politics and complexity science have lead to investment insights and success others couldn’t see."
http://mastersinvest.com/newblog/2020/11/11/learning-from-the-santa-fe-institute
26. Cannabis is back although It never really left. Good for Snoop Dogg & Casa Verde Capital.
27. This was a great, rational & hopeful discussion between Yang & Chamath. Covered alot of good stuff about politics and tech.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHcsgy5gk58
28. Lots of insights for angel investors. From 2 of the top investors and operators in SV.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-VDSQSHND8
29. This is the fight we should be paying attention to. Advanced Semiconductor chips are critical to any country’s digital future.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/22/tech/smic-us-sanctions-intl-hnk/
30. "The most interesting writers and "thought leaders" to me are the ones who are out doing something, and then use what they're working on to influence their writing and other media.
The problem with being a full-time creator is you have to start caring about the business of what you create. When you primarily make money from your following, you are no longer as free to say whatever you want or create whatever you want to create.
Paul Graham is an incredible writer partially because he's entirely free to say whatever he wants. He has more fuck-you-money than he could possibly know what to do with, so if he pisses off a million people on Twitter it doesn't really matter."
https://www.nateliason.com/blog/not-creator
31. Food for thought.
"But the pandemic has put a lot more people than usual in direct need of U.S. government help, and many are discovering that they don’t like the idea of workfare. It’s one thing to talk about personal responsibility during normal times (especially if you have a nice job yourself), but does the government really expect people to lift themselves up by their bootstraps in the middle of a goddamn PANDEMIC??
So it’s possible that the anger over the $600 checks indicates a growing rebellion against the whole workfare concept. It may be that in the coming years we’ll see more support for universalist programs like national health insurance and universal basic income.
And maybe that will be a good change. It certainly is something that bears thinking about. But in the meantime, don’t say that the government only gave out $600 checks."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-us-government-gave-out-way-more
32. The real reason SF is a mess: bad local government.
"I do think the technology industry can and should be blamed for one thing: taking this bullshit for as long as it has. While the industry has caused none of the problems it’s accused of causing, absence of tech workers from local politics has been problematic, if understandable. The technology industry is ripe with opportunity, and attracts people excited by the prospect of building technologies and companies that have never before existed, unencumbered by bureaucracy, and limited only by the bounds of their imagination.
No one moved to San Francisco because they wanted to run for the local Board of Supervisors. I get it. But if 2020 proved anything, it’s local politics is almost the only thing that matters in terms of our day-to-day existence, and if the deterioration of San Francisco can’t be stopped, I at least hope it will be remembered. We can ignore local politics, but local politics will nonetheless shape our lives, and a sufficiently unhinged City Hall can destroy almost anything."
https://solana.substack.com/p/extract-or-die
33. If it works for Tony Robbins! Biohacking tips from the best.
https://www.tonyrobbins.com/health-vitality/biohacking-for-beginners/
34. This is pretty awesome actually. One of neatest I've read in awhile.
"On this autumn Wednesday, musician and performer Har Mar Superstar, né Sean Tillmann, isn’t on the road touring or in rehearsal. He’s out delivering the mail—outfitted head to toe in official U.S. Postal Service–issued flannel blues. This is his fifth week as a city carrier assistant, or CCA, earning $17-something an hour plus overtime and clocking around 25,000 steps a day."
"He swears he’s not doing this for a movie role or because he’s writing some new USPS concept album. Nope, he was simply at the post office mailing some vinyl one day and decided, spur of the moment, to apply for a gig. He was hired almost immediately, and, poof, Har Mar Superstar became a regular working man."
“The post office is like the military for slackers,” he says. “You punch in at 0700 hours, and then you’re on tour.”
https://mspmag.com/arts-and-culture/har-mar-superstar-becomes-mailman/
35. "Be grateful for what material comforts you have. If you see fit to add to them, then do so – but do not make the pursuit of comfort your sole aim in life. Otherwise, you will one day find yourself without comfort of any kind – and if you ignore my advice above, then on that day, you will have no idea what to do."
https://didacticmind.com/2020/12/comfort-makes-you-weak.html
36. I don't agree with this guy’s politics. But I agree with the message. The lockdowns don't work (or at least they way they have been implemented in California).
"Don't let yourself be trapped by stupid governments and fearful people. Make your choices and take your stand. You were free from the day of your birth - but if you surrender that freedom, then you, and you alone, are to blame. Fight back with everything you have. Do not submit to the madness of their crowd, but stand alone proudly for the truth."
https://mailchi.mp/2e4de02fee4e/lies-damned-lies-and-lockdowns?e=32cdd9e5ec
37. It's a newsletter boom. Neat company.
https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/letterhead-wants-to-be-the-shopify-of-email-newsletters/
38. "I also make a point that I wish the filters for venture capital were different than what they currently are. But they aren’t, and it’s because venture capital is not built for outsiders. It’s not built for outsiders because I know that there are no good filters to evaluate an outsider, even if they are the next Katrina Lake. This is losing VCs billions of dollars in value every year."
https://www.matsherman.com/p/vanity-filters
39. "Before the pandemic, Rabois believed that the only “acceptable place for a highly ambitious VC and technology executive” was to live in the Bay Area. “What the pandemic clarified is that perhaps that thinking was erroneous. Maybe never true, but certainly less true than the perceived wisdom. Second, the pandemic removed or lowered the opportunity costs to try new places.”
https://www.newcomer.co/p/taking-his-talents-to-miami-beach
40. The future of war: an interesting sci fi take.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=830Hht4t1Nw
41. These guys have been pretty good on predictions and views on trends. Worth a read.
"The big picture is that technology has been accelerated by 5 years or so and that companies have learned a good 30-50% of their headcount is unproductive. There is no need for multiple middle management layers and there is no need for low end labor when software can do the job. For example, budgets can be blocked/allowed based on certain metrics making it difficult if not impossible to cheat the system. If there is an exception then they must email the decision maker. This creates one job in total when there used to be 10-15."
"Re-prioritize your life. After spending a year in a global pandemic, you’ve likely reassessed what is important to you. You can reduce clutter in your inbox, reduce noise in your messages and increase productivity while claiming to be “at work” on a particular project. Also. During this re-prioritization process you should know with certainty that online income is the way forward and you just got another 6-9 months to figure that one out (June of next year is the earliest things will normalize based on current projections… at best)."
https://wallstreetplayboys.com/making-a-plan-for-2021-and-qa-announcement/
42. "In the United States, interest rates are at historic lows, but the political will for an interest rate rise is no longer present because it would have such a devastating impact on bond markets and the real economy. The question is whether investors will continue to flow to the dollar if the currency can no longer generate yield.
Should we be surprised that in places such as Myanmar people now seems to prefer the local currency? “I feel safer now when I have kyat rather than U.S. dollars,” said Zaw Moe Ko, a business professional in Yangon. The kyat has gained as much as 11% versus the dollar this year."
https://brunomacaes.substack.com/p/in-search-of-a-new-reserve-currency
43. Jack Ma being clipped by the CCP. End of an era in China for sure. Also why I would not do business as the rules change all the time.
"While his wealth and influence are being curbed, Ma isn’t on the verge of a personal downfall, say those familiar with the situation, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive matters, as did other officials and executives with whom Bloomberg News spoke for this story. Instead, his public rebuke is a warning that Beijing has lost patience with the outsize power of its technology moguls, increasingly perceived as a threat to the political and financial stability President Xi Jinping prizes most."
“The [Communist] Party is trying to make it clear that Ma is not bigger than the party,”
44. I think we all feel this way sometimes. Especially in 2020.
"Having periods without joy is completely normal. In fact, it would be a little weird for someone to be living in a perpetual state of joy. But sometimes your joy tank runs low and you feel empty and unmotivated. The key is to recognize that these moments are normal and they’re usually temporary."
https://www.menshealth.com/health/a34995097/how-to-find-joy/
45. I like Miles Teller. Especially in "Whiplash" and "War Dogs"
"As with everybody else, Teller’s next big step has been postponed due to COVID-19. Maybe you were going to take a new job. Maybe you were going to move to a new city. Maybe there was that girl you’d finally worked up the courage to ask out. Or maybe, just maybe, you’re Miles Teller and you were about to star in a film that might do a billion in global box office.
Now he waits and tries to make sense of it all. He is like a Top Gun pilot looking to land his plane after a long mission. But the guy with the sticks on the flight deck is waving him off. He refuels and keeps circling. He is on pause, just like the rest of us."
https://www.menshealth.com/entertainment/a34918983/miles-teller-top-gun-maverick-interview/
46. Wesley Snipes!
"You spent a couple of years in jail for tax problems. What did you learn most from that?
The value of time. I was gone for two years and some months, and the most amazing thing was to return back to what they call the world—interesting term—and find that there were people who were doing the exact same thing, in the exact same situation. It’s almost like time stood still for two years. Now who was in jail? Who is still in jail?"
47. YAH!
2021 starting off right! Cobra Kai Season 3!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LcDQqGJG8pA
48. The Rock is the best!
"When Johnson started in Hollywood, his ambitions were extraordinary — and his incredible capacity for work has made them a reality.
Johnson is the highest-paid actor in the world, making more than $20 million per movie, thanks to a string of box office hits. His films have grossed over $10.5 billion worldwide, which makes him one of the highest-grossing movie stars of all time.
The reason? His charisma and drive for greatness. Johnson tests well in what the film industry refers to as "all four quadrants:" old men, young men, old women, and young women. In other words, the people who don't like The Rock are few and far between."
https://theprofile.substack.com/p/dwayne-the-rock-johnson
49. This looks amazing. I can't wait to watch this: chasing the American dream. "Minari"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQ0gFidlro8
50. "This feels different. Maybe it doesn’t feel different from the Dot Com Crash, I don’t know. But I know you’ll tell me that I don’t know. From everything I’ve gathered this is different. First and foremost because not only is the tech industry not collapsing, it’s thriving. But the city is nevertheless rotting.
Perhaps the rot is, in part, because of the tech industry. I certainly think it’s a part of it. Too many in our industry are arrogant at best and completely out of touch with reality at worst. But the more pressing issue would seem to be that despite tech being such an important part of the city, nothing has changed. Things have only gotten worse.
Our city is on fire and we elect gasoline, a San Francisco story."
https://500ish.com/wake-the-fuck-up-san-francisco-6df7629cf229
51. This is worth a review for those interested in consumer trends in 2021.
https://www.coefficientcap.com/trends/
52. Always a great discussion with lots of insights. I am definitely a Chamath fanboy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gu3vvrLRyZM&feature=youtu.be
53. This to me is one of the biggest tragedies of the 2020 pandemic. Death of small businesses like Mr Yao's.
Let's hope he makes it through. We need more people like this in America.
"The fates of these small business owners and employees have been in the hands of a virus that has refused to retreat. Many have seen dreams drown in debt, livelihoods gone dark.
An estimated one-third of New York City’s more than 200,000 small businesses may never reopen. Altogether they will leave a staggering void."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/25/nyregion/nyc-army-navy-bags-coronavirus.html
54. BTS is crushing it around the world.
"Since the start of their careers, BTS have shown a certain confidence in their aesthetic, their performances, and their music videos. It’s right there in the name: BTS stands for “Bangtan Sonyeondan,” which translates to “Bulletproof Boy Scouts,” but as their popularity grew in English-speaking markets, the acronym was retrofitted to mean “Beyond the Scene,” which Big Hit has described as “symbolizing youth who don’t settle for their current reality and instead open the door and go forward to achieve growth.”
And their affection with one another, their vulnerability and emotional openness in their lives and in their lyrics, strikes me as more grown-up and masculine than all the frantic and perpetual box-checking and tone-policing that American boys force themselves and their peers to do. It looks like the future.
The Recording Academy’s seal of approval is one thing. But BTS have already conquered the world, clowned tyrants, inspired individual fans to perform the small and achievable acts of activism that have collectively begun to save the planet, challenged toxic masculinity by leading with vulnerability, and, along the way, become bajillionaires and international idols."
https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/music/a34654383/bts-members-be-album-interview-2020/
Listen to this Newsletter: https://listencat.com/the-hard-fork-by-marvin-liao-podcast/
Venture Fundable Businesses
In Venture Capital, it’s about the big winners. And almost always usually winners take all markets where the two leaders have most of the market share in the category. I’ve met thousands of founders over the 7-8 years, evaluated countless businesses and reality is most of these startups are probably not VC fundable business models. I learned this the hard way in my first 1.5 years as a VC. I found out that it’s not just a market size issue but a business model one too. Ie. Venture scale.
There are 4 business models at a broad level that could be venture fundable. I fully attribute this framework to my friend and investor James Currier over at NFX, a top tier VC firm.
1. Embed Model: This business model is almost always in the enterprise software space. You build a sales team or figure out an effective Product Led Growth motion, sell into the Fortune 500 and lock them in. Once you are locked in, it’s very hard to rip your technology out. Some examples are SAP, Salesforce, Adobe or really any major Enterprise software company
2. NetWork Effects: Usually platform driven. At a basic level, the more buyers you have, the more sellers you get. The more sellers you have, the more buyers you get. A virtually hard to break virtuous cycle once you get going. Some examples are Craigslist, EBay, Facebook, Google.
3. Economies of Scale: Growing to a stage when you can use your mass size and volume for discounts and scale to outgrow. Amazon is to me the most obvious example here.
4. Brand: Building a brand to distinguish yourself and be the main choice of your buyer. DTC brands like Warby Parker are recent examples. Older examples could be IBM.
I actually think it’s really only the Embed Model and Network Effects that truly are Venture fundable where first mover advantage supercharged by VC $$ gets you lock in of customers. Yes, Brand and Economies of Scale are very powerful but can be replicated or decay faster than Embed and Network Effects.
You can even point to some examples that exemplify most if not all of these attributes. Amazon: they have Amazon Web Services which exemplifies Embed model but they also have network effects through their 3rd party selling platform, Economies of scale from their logistics and buying power, and through all of this, their immense Brand strength.
I’ve probably oversimplified these concepts but i think they are illustrative of what a venture capitalist (should) look for. I think any investor who does not look at startups in this lens is making a big mistake. And believe this is also a good guide for founders trying to decide whether VC is the right path for them.
Listen to this Newsletter: https://listencat.com/the-hard-fork-by-marvin-liao-podcast/
Risks of Endowment Style Investing for Personal Finances: Lessons from a Catastrophic 2020
The Endowment model of investing is a very interesting one. It’s been popularized by Yale and Harvard University, where they have been able to generate higher than average returns every year.
“Between 1985 and 2008, Harvard University's endowment generated 15.23% returns, while Yale pulled in 16.62%. Both endowments handily outperformed the S&P 500, which only grew 12% during that same time period.
In the decades leading up to the economic crisis, from 1985 to 2008, endowments with assets of US$1 billion and above generally invested a small portion of funds in traditional stocks and bonds and a larger portion in alternative assets such as hedge funds, private equity, venture capital, and real assets like oil and natural resources. Many of these alternative investments outperform traditional stocks and bonds, but typically have longer gestation periods and impose higher minimum investments--especially in highly illiquid markets.”
Source: How To Invest Like An Endowment
Basically it’s a portfolio with both liquid assets (like equity, bonds & cash) balanced by higher return but more illiquid alternative assets (ie. hedge funds, VC, PE & even art & timber).
So using my own personal example: when you have a portfolio stuffed with mainly illiquid assets like venture capital (LP & Carried Interest), angel investments in early stage startups, Investment Rental properties. (Ie. real estate), stocks in 401K and some crypto (thankfully the last bit is liquid). I found myself in a very enviable position of being relatively “Asset Rich, Liquidity Poor.”
On paper & in the long term I should be fine, but it is the short term surprise squeezes which wreck you. I did not follow the lesson from math & the ecology: “Always Account for Variable Change”
So, for example during the pandemic in 2020, I found myself facing non-paying tenants with the addition of a local government mandated eviction ban. You just have to eat this. Add to this, some delayed accounts receivable payments for some loans and advisory work, I ended up facing a VERY painful cash crunch during the summer. Added to this, the ongoing government mandated lockdown, the BLM movement and consequent riots, Forest Fires & oh yeah, the raging Covid 19 Pandemic that started all this. And then there was chaos of the larger government mismanagement and the lead up to a zany contentious election in the USA. It was a really tough couple of months.
I barely got through it and it was only from a combo of borrowing money from family (much to my embarrassment) and selling some assets at a discount. (Yes, i know #Firstworldproblems, thankfully i had some assets to begin with)
As the famous investor Howard Marks states: Every investment move has to be defensive and offensive. This is why a thoughtful portfolio approach that accounts for all situations makes sense. Something I did not do.
I’ve thought a lot about this. In retrospect there were many things I should have done.
So learn some lessons from my own mistakes. Here are some key takeaways:
1. I should have taken a Barbell Approach to my investments. It should have been balanced with more liquid assets like stocks & crypto.
2. I was over-geared. You should always try to keep 9-12 months emergency liquid funds in your bank ie. cash. Yes, I know this is basic stuff but how many people actually do this (or can actually do this). I was a bit too aggressive with only a few months of liquid cash. Probably overly optimistic here going into 2020. Having some liquid reserves allows you to survive the cash crunch and hold on to your assets. I had to sell a rental property at a less than optimal price to get through the crunch. I still came out ahead fortunately but it was at a substantial discount to optimize for selling fast.
3.Keep personal cost structure as low as possible. Thankfully I tend to be pretty frugal. BUT your own personal budget needs to be evaluated and trimmed on a regular basis. I’d recommend doing this exercise once a quarter, and the minute a financial crisis hits, don’t hesitate and cut right away. I screwed up majorly. I did not start cutting until 3 months into the pandemic, wasting precious cash when I needed it later.
4. As a continuation of Point 3. Geo-arbitrage is a smart & enjoyable way to cut down your personal costs structure. My family is lucky enough that we can spend a good part of the year in Canada or Taiwan, where the US Dollar goes much further.
By doing this, you can reduce your living expenses in very pricey San Francisco (or wherever you live) by a very large percentage. This is also something I should have executed on earlier in the pandemic. Like many people in America, I did not expect a lockdown lasting beyond 3 months, nor the gross governmental mismanagement that occured here.
5. Do a regular and personal accounting of your P&L for all of your business lines whether it is real estate, consulting, investing etc. regularly. At minimum once a quarter, although once a month is way better. This is the only way you can keep on top of things. In fact, i did not realize how much cash money i was losing in my real estate holdings until August, 6 months after the lockdowns started.
6. Make sure you follow up on personal accounts payables collections. This turned into a major issue for me by June/July 2020.
I share all this because I don’t want you to make my mistakes. Yet, as i write this I know this is the path everyone needs to figure out for themselves. These mistakes were painful, self inflicted & caused a lot of personal stress which I would not want to wish on anyone.
But at the same time, it was really personally instructive. You learn what you are made of. Once you get through something like this, you really become far stronger, more confident and feel capable of handling almost anything. As the African proverb states: “Smooth seas do not make for skillful sailors.”
This is especially if they value having more personal freedom in their lives. 2020 made it very clear to me that you cannot have personal freedom without some form of financial freedom. But as I paraphrase ex-Navy SEAL and leadership coach, Jocko Willink, you can’t have Freedom without Discipline. This will not be lost on me going forward.
Listen to this Newsletter: https://listencat.com/the-hard-fork-by-marvin-liao-podcast/
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads December 20th, 2020
“The first step towards getting somewhere is to decide you’re not going to stay where you are.” --JP Morgan
Super interesting discussion on the Unicorn Decade. Precursor to the upcoming Decacorn Decade.
"The events of 2020 have settled the debate. At least for this decade’s transition — 2020 is the year that ends a strange and chaotic decade, bringing so many of its themes to a logical endpoint.
Next year, the new decade begins."
"In business and finance, the rise of the unicorn was a defining feature of the decade now wrapping up. The ubiquity of venture-backed businesses with valuations north of $1 billion created a new, lasting innovation in how investors, entrepreneurs, and consumers think about starting a company. The 2010s were the Unicorn Decade.
And this financing trend will endure just as more efficient food delivery, more available taxis, and more contingent work will change the economy in the new decade. Managing to finance operations for a company worth tens of billions of dollars while keeping that company private was and remains a novel solution for startups and their preferred investors."
https://mylesudland.substack.com/p/doordash-airbnb-ipo-unicorn-era
2. I am a big fan and can't believe I only discovered Khe Hy recently. Although in my defense I am Gen X not millennial.
"Nothing prepares you to see your bank account go down," admits Hy, who is now 37 and wears polka dot sweaters, jeans and neon blue Nike shoes. "Even if it was going down from a big number, it still f--ks with your head."
"His biggest realization is that fear -- especially the fear of failure or running out of money -- holds so many people back from doing what they really want to do in life. Even in his own life, he and his wife budgeted for a two-year break, a deadline that is approaching."
https://money.cnn.com/2016/12/30/news/economy/khemaridh-hy-rad-reads-oprah-for-millennials/
3. A very inspiring man: Noah Galloway. Amazing profile written by my friend Polina Marinova Pompliano.
"He went on to run ultra-races, marathons, and Tough Mudders. He appeared on the cover of Men's Health magazine and placed third on the TV show, "Dancing with the Stars." And still — he recognizes those accomplishments don't define him. They were just chapters in his life journey.
Galloway embodies everything The Profile stands for. It's about shedding the labels society has slapped on you and re-claiming the power to re-invent yourself — no matter your age, your current circumstance, or your past traumas."
"I see a lot of veterans — and other people do it — but I point out to veterans that you can't live in the past because you'll never be satisfied with what you're doing now. You'll never progress and challenge yourself again because you've peaked too soon. But you only peak when you decide you've peaked. So Al Bundy chose to peak in high school and never did anything else."
https://theprofile.substack.com/p/the-profile-the-man-who-builds-impossible-b65
4. Eric Yuan and Zoom definitely deserve the Time Business person of year title in 2020.
"Yuan soon found himself serving as the world’s relationship liaison, social chair, principal, convention-center host, chief security officer and pallbearer. Despite competition from corporate behemoths like Google, Apple and Microsoft, Zoom jumped out in front of the video pack, catapulting from 10 million daily meeting participants in December to a staggering 300 million in April. Zoom became a verb and a prefix, a defining syllable of a socially distant era. As his company’s valuation soared, Yuan crashed into the Forbes billionaires list."
"Yuan responded with swift course correction and transparency, at least to the security issues, gaining the trust of many critics—and the company’s stock has tripled since April. Zoom was named Apple’smost downloaded free app of the year. It won the 2020 video wars partially because, like its founder, it’s flexible, intuitive and pretense-free. It was adaptable in a year when there was hardly a more vital attribute—and it offered glimpses, promising and ominous alike, of what human connection might look like for years to come."
https://time.com/businessperson-of-the-year-2020-eric-yuan/
5. Go King James!
"After nearly two decades in the NBA, James has fully embraced that his talent on the court is a means to achieving something greater off it. And this year, more than in any before it, he showed why he is unrivaled in both.
Despite misgivings, James played on in the bubble and led the Los Angeles Lakers to the NBA championship—his first with the team and fourth overall. By staying, James increased his leverage and influence, and got deep-pocketed owners, fellow athletes and fans the world over engaged directly with democracy. And through it all, he spoke personally to the anguish of Black Americans, channeling pain and outrage into a plan of action."
https://time.com/athlete-of-the-year-2020-lebron-james
6. This is one of the better overviews of the ever growing Creator economy I've seen.
"The internet is magic and creators are its purest expression. Where most people see a cultural oddity, I see an entire generation bypassing traditional gatekeepers for the first time in history."
https://hugo.pm/mapping-the-creator-economy/
7. "The hope is that private networks will increase authenticity, vulnerability, meaning, and connection — both for those in the spotlight, and the broader network of users more generally. If users are complaining about it today, it’s clearly an opportunity to build something better for the future.
Vertical networks present the largest opportunity I see in social — unbundle Facebook (or Reddit) demographic by demographic."
https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/p/opportunities-in-consumer-social
8. WORD!
"In short, the “new rich” will be able to earn their income 100% remote and they will have assets that are difficult if not impossible to seize (such as crypto currencies or NFTs)."
"If you get nothing from the post it should be “liquidity and options”. Under no circumstances do you want to decrease liquidity and decrease your flexibility. In times of wild amounts of change, you need to be able to move with the environment as well."
"the sovereign individual is coming soon. Self reliance and freedom will become the ultimate “status symbol.”
https://wallstreetplayboys.com/the-birth-of-the-sovereign-individual-short-post/
9. This totally makes sense to me. The Multi SKU Creator. ie. Portfolio Entrepreneur.
It’s my belief that very few “Substack writers” will make 100% of their income from their newsletter and this won’t be a failure of the platforms but instead related to the nature of creation itself. Enter, the Multi-SKU Creator.
The biggest impact of someone like Casey unbundling himself from The Vox is that he is now an entrepreneur with a product called Casey. His beachhead may very well be a paid newsletter (it’s very good by the way) but the newsletter is just one SKU. Maybe the SKU he cares most about. Maybe even the SKU that makes him the most money. But it doesn’t have to be the only SKU. There could be a podcast SKU. A speaking fee SKU. A book deal SKU. A consulting SKU. A guest columnist SKU. And so on. And if he does several of these over the next few years, it won’t be about the success or failure of Substack (for him) but a mix of creative, economic and lifestyle goals."
10. Pear VC is one of the best seed stage VCs around.
"Hershenson and Nozad invested $250,000 into the seed round of DoorDash, then continued to back the company in its Series A & B rounds for an overall investment of about $1.9 million. When DoorDash went public on Wednesday, their firm, Pear VC, owned 2,518,360 shares, according to two sources with knowledge of the firm’s finances. But at DoorDash’s share price of $176 as of market open on Friday, Hershenson and Nozad’s initial investment is up about 1,000 times, & the blended position up 233 times their committed capital—meaning the duo have, for now, turned $1.9 million into more than $440 million.
Pear VC is far from the only firm to have won big in DoorDash’s IPO, which made Xu and two of his cofounders billionaires.... Pear stands out: a firm launched by two immigrants that stands to return its entire $51 million first fund a few times over from one of its very first bets."
“As the size of funds are increasing, and everybody’s after the same founders, we think there’s a group of entrepreneurs that are kind of a rock, but they can be turned into diamond,” says Hershenson."
11. Talk about a modern Renaissance craftsman.
"Ellison is a carpenter—the best carpenter in New York, by some accounts, though that hardly covers it. Depending on the job, Ellison is also a welder, a sculptor, a contractor, a cabinetmaker, an inventor, and an industrial designer. He’s a carpenter the way Filippo Brunelleschi, the architect of the great dome of the Florence Cathedral, was an engineer. He’s a man who gets hired to build impossible things."
“I couldn’t be employed in most cities in America,” Ellison told me. “This job doesn’t exist there. It’s too idiosyncratic.”
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/11/30/the-art-of-building-the-impossible
12. "In 2013, Euromonitor pegged Monopoly’s annual revenues at ~$400m. By one estimate, that accounts for ~30% of all mass-market board game sales in the world — equivalent to Google’s share of the US ad market.
The pandemic has created another boom: Gaming sales for Hasbro reached a record high in Q3 of 2020. In the UK this spring, board game and jigsaw puzzle revenues were up 240% — and Monopoly was the top seller.
Ask industry observers and fans why Monopoly has thrived, and they point to the game’s unique storyline, nostalgia, and a desire to escape screens.
But there’s another factor at play: Hasbro created a real-life monopoly that allowed Monopoly to flourish.
How did Hasbro corner the board game market? And could a new wave of collaborative board games threaten to disrupt their dominance?"
https://thehustle.co/how-a-real-life-monopoly-made-monopoly-the-worlds-biggest-board-game/
13. I will admit I did not like The Godfather 3 at first compared to its previous movies (masterpieces) but I do think its not a bad movie. Can't wait to see the new recut edition.
"But 30 years after its release, it is time to rescue Godfather III from its terrible reputation. Pacino's eloquent, fiery, knowing central performance is supported by several bravura set pieces that are mini-masterpieces in themselves. With deliberate echoes of the earlier Godfather films, there is singing and dancing at a family party, a bold murder during the San Gennaro street festival, a tragedy on the steps of an opera house in Sicily."
https://www.bbc.com/culture/article/20201201-why-the-godfather-part-iii-has-been-unfairly-demonised
14. Good for them. Love this story.
"In 2017, CNBC spoke to the Dutch family of five when they were in the process of liquidating their assets — from a profitable business and 2,500-square-foot house, to their shoes — and trading it all in for the popular cryptocurrency and a life on the road.
Nearly four years and 40 countries later, Taihuttu and his family still don’t have bank accounts, a house, or all that much by way of personal possessions. All of the family’s savings remain tied up in highly volatile cryptocurrencies.
“We stepped into bitcoin, because we wanted to change our lives,” said the 42-year-old father of three.
When the price of bitcoin collapsed in 2018, Taihuttu added more to his investment portfolio."
"This kind of mainstream adoption is hugely important, because cryptocurrencies like bitcoin aren’t backed by an asset, nor do they have the full faith and backing of the government. They’re valuable because people believe they’re valuable. So it goes a long way when bitcoin gets buy-in from some of the biggest names on Wall Street."
15. "You see your friends posting smiling selfies at exotic destinations and humblebragging about their professional and personal accomplishments, and you end up thinking your own life doesn't measure up.
Of course, intellectually we all know that our real life selves and our highly curated online selves differ hugely, but it's still easy to fall into the trap of letting other people's perfect social-media profiles convince you that you're somehow falling short."
16. Definitely one of the winning businesses coming out of 2020.
"According to Stokely, OnlyFans is adding as many as 500,000 users a day and paying out more than $200 million a month to its creators.
Along the way, OnlyFans has grown into one of the biggest media businesses hiding in plain sight. The company has 85 million users, upward of 1 million creators, and will generate more than $2 billion in sales this year, of which it keeps about 20%.
That puts the site on track for $400 million in annual net sales — dwarfing Patreon, a platform devoted to helping creative types monetize their work, which is valued at more than $1.2 billion. “OnlyFans is revolutionizing creator and fan relations,” Stokely said."
17. "As the technology industry has grown, and as end markets have been proven to be much bigger than most imagined, and with the next decade’s digital acceleration pulled forward to the present due to pandemic shutdowns, big deals are happening at a furious pace. Just this past week, we saw not one, but two, billion-dollar SaaS exits, and then a mega-acquisition of another public SsaS company."
18. The new ways of monetizing Social beyond ads from A16Z.
"The reigning ad model is becoming less viable for emerging social platforms—and less enticing for creators. Through new monetization tactics such as tiered subscriptions, social ecommerce, paid vertical communities, and more, creators and social platforms are seeking renewed agency and control over their revenue streams and take rates.
As the consumer social landscape becomes increasingly verticalized, platforms are likely to evolve beyond ads into models that better align the interests of creator, consumer, and company."
https://a16z.com/2020/12/07/social-strikes-back-after-ads/
19. Lessons from the recent war between Azerbaijan & Armenia for Taiwan.
"Azerbaijan used a mix of modern (but hardly cutting edge) and old systems in innovative ways, cleverly turning an assessed Armenian strength – fortified defenses – into a deadly weakness. More important than equipment is the thinking behind the use of the equipment.
It’s true that China is certainly no Armenia, but on the other hand, Taiwan is also significantly stronger economically than Azerbaijan: Taiwan’s GDP is some 14 times larger than that of Azerbaijan’s, and it is much more technologically sophisticated, to boot.
Taiwan has recently demonstrated an impressive ability to wield organization and technology – a veritable Arsenal of Ideas – to defeat a wide range of adversaries, from COVID-19 to Beijing’s disinformation campaigns. The key to Taiwan’s survival will be to constantly experiment, using this Arsenal of Ideas to offset an adversary with far greater firepower. Therein lies the final lesson of Armenia-Azerbaijan War, encapsulated in the old British Special Air Service motto: “Who Dares, Wins.”
https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/what-taiwans-military-can-learn-from-the-armenia-azerbaijan-war/
20. Long been a proponent of Remote work. We are never going back.
"Missing from the debate is the fact that it’s not really up to the companies to choose. Employees will ultimately make the decision. The best employees have more options now than ever before, and they’re not going to work for companies that make them shave, get dressed, hop into a car or a crowded subway, and sit at a desk in an office five days a week with their headphones on trying to avoid distractions and get work done.
Choosing to Return to the way things were is like choosing not to adopt software a decade or two ago. It’s an option, but one that will doom a company to mediocrity."
https://notboring.substack.com/p/were-never-going-back
21. "The internet makes it possible for many knowledge employees to work from anywhere. The earning potential of (many of) the most productive employees is no longer capped by geography. As a result, we will see the emergence of a new class of people earning salaries that are an order of magnitude higher than what we saw in previous decades.
Many of these people will remain directly employed, and some will become self-employed but will work on an exclusive basis with one or a few companies.
Note that I am not talking about the emergence of a handful of highly-paid superstars in the vein of Hollywood’s Brad Pitt or Tom Hanks. I am talking about micro-stars in the vein of TikTok’s Charli D’Amelio: a whole new layer of professionals than earn incomes that are a level below the biggest earners on in their field, but still much higher than what the average employee (or singer, or dancer) could earn in the pre-internet era.
I call this new layer of professionals the 10X Class. Several other trends support their emergence. As machines take up more of our repetitive and predictable tasks, the value of human creativity goes up. Concurrently, creative people can use technology to streamline routine tasks and focus only on what they do best — thus multiplying their own productivity."
https://subscribe.drorpoleg.com/p/rise-of-the-10x-class
22. "consider that Momoa would be the first to tell you that all of the tough-guy vibes you picked up from his Walk of Fame performances in Game of Thrones (as Khal Drogo) and Conan the Barbarian and Aquaman were just an act. Which makes sense, because he was acting. “I may look big and tough, but I’m not,” he explains. “I’m nothing like Khal Drogo. I’m not even the king of my own house! I’m absolutely terrified of my wife.”
"With Momoa, we’ve got ourselves an altogether different type of star from all the Chrises and Ryans who serve up their own spins on wholesome, well-groomed, on-script masculinity. Spontaneous, humble, earnest, and actually, honest-to-goodness-ly authentic, he’s more like the charismatic spawn of the Rock and wee Timothée Chalamet, bulldozing outdated and restrictive modes of manliness and showing the rest of us how to embrace our full non-incognito selves. Now, at 41, after two decades of playing buff guys without a lot of brains, Momoa is getting his first taste of working on a prestige film with an acclaimed director and a metric ton of Academy Award–winning and –nominated actors. The man is not done surprising us yet."
https://www.menshealth.com/entertainment/a34498165/jason-momoa-dune-interview/
23. "In short: We’re fine. We simply can’t travel. We haven’t gone on a trip since returning home from Australia, and we aren’t certain when we will travel again. But I know that when we do, we will do so with intentionality, with care. Travel has lost its levity. It has become gilded, or leaded, with meaning and consequence. Travel is heavy. Perhaps it always will be. And that is a good, if hard, thing—for us and for the earth."
https://www.outsideonline.com/2419621/doomed-great-barrier-reef-travel
24. "There is no question that the bay area is losing some talent to other markets but I don’t think that is anywhere near the most important thing. It is also the case that Google and Apple show no signs of leaving the bay area any time soon. Silicon Valley will remain a mecca for talent and tech for as far into the future as I can see.
What is more important is the rise of everywhere. In the most recent Pitchbook 2021 predictions, they project that Silicon Valley will make up less than 20% of all VC deals in 2021. The way that happens is not less funding in Silicon Valley. The way that happens is way more funding everywhere else."
https://avc.com/2020/12/the-rise-of-everywhere/
25. "The market conditions seem perfectly set up to reward asset owners. I realize an investment philosophy of “own assets” is far from earth shattering. And of course you need capital to own assets.
That said, if you have a longish time horizon, good luck sitting on a bunch of cash and bonds. At least for now the 60/40 portfolio is dead. I suspect it’ll be far preferable to own assets that can appreciate and/or throw off income.
One trend I see continuing is rise of alternative investments in retail investors’ portfolios.
Alts are essentially everything outside of public equities. Think real estate, venture capital, private equity, collectibles, and more. They tend to be illiquid and in some cases only accessible to accredited investors."
https://thecuriousinvestor.substack.com/p/how-im-investing-in-2021
26. "Even without knowing what exactly happened in that shed in Connecticut, Hsieh was clearly in anguish. Mental health experts caution that the ongoing Covid pandemic can increase feelings of isolation and loneliness, and offer tips and resources to seek help for yourself or loved ones.
Social isolation means having to “cope and deal with everything entirely on our own,” said Hold-Lunstad. “It has been argued that our brains in essence has have evolved to expect the proximity to others and so when we don’t, when we lack this proximity to others — and particularly trusted others — that this creates a state of alert and threat in our brain.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/tony-hsieh-mental-health-help-covid-pandemic-isolation.html
27. "Enough is both exciting and terrifying. For the same reason.
No one can tell you what’s enough. There’s no formula, no framework nor book to read to get you there. And that can be daunting.
But that also means that the definition of enough is not purely a function of money. It’s why there are plenty of very happy people who are time rich yet asset poor. (And also why there are Dianas who are asset rich but time poor.)"
https://radreads.co/vonnegut-enough/
28. I love a good rant.
https://www.the-sun.com/entertainment/1977533/tom-cruise-covid-mission-impossible-rant/
29. "I would say that almost certainly the great stagnation is over in the biomedical sciences. It is less obvious that the great stagnation is over more generally, as we might simply retreat into our former sloth and complacency once we are mostly vaccinated.
If you are looking for a quick metric to indicate the great stagnation might be over, consider total factor productivity. It is entirely possible that tfp in 2021 will be 5 or more, its highest level ever."
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/12/why-did-the-great-stagnation-end.html
30. "To find the right platform at a fund for your company, you should identify what your needs are (recruiting, network, event exposure), and look for a fund that maps to those specific needs."
31. Economic Inequality in America. You think? Pandemic has made this more stark.
https://www.axios.com/inequality-harder-ignore-a37be900-c8d3-474d-93fb-943b8a0da345.html
32. "Today the majority of the world’s population are using the Internet to design their lives. Historically we used to have to rely on the church for that, then universities followed by corporations. But today, 59% of all people make their life choices every month using the Internet. And we have just begun to scratch the surface of all the amazing possibilities that lie ahead."
https://futureswells.substack.com/p/letter-from-future-swells-no-60
33. This is a good explanation for exodus from formerly top cities.
"The coronavirus has reset consumer expectations back to suburban living and the mental health benefits of living in greenspace. There has been an exodus from major industry centers to their suburbs and to the alt-cities. The alt-cities of Miami, Austin, and Nashville all offer car-friendly, suburban living, relatively cheap and ubiquitous housing, and continual housing construction."
"Rather than going fully remote, key people are aggregating in cities where they will be able to network post-COVID. Austin has attracted well-known technology figures such as Elon Musk, Drew Houston, and Joe Lonsdale. Miami and South Florida have landed finance billionaires Carl Icahn and Paul Singer, as well as prominent technology investors Keith Rabois, David Blumberg, and Sherwin Pishevar.
Nashville hosts well-known artists including Jack White, Miley Cyrus, and Taylor Swift, who rejected Los Angeles and helped shift Nashville from country to other forms of music. These cities are attracting free thinkers known to lead the way, leaving the impression that those left behind in the origin cities are clock-punchers at Google."
http://www.yared.com/2020/12/the-alt-cities-why-tech-finance-and.html
34. This is a bit of an extreme individual and don't agree with his politics & most of his nutty views. But I agree with this sentiment. Corporate life is pretty soul destroying.
"When you sign on to life in a corporation, especially in any of the GloboHomoCorps that dot the landscape these days, you will be paid a lot of money to, essentially, keep your mouth shut and wallow in filth. Whenever the corporate bumpf says that “our people are our greatest asset!” and “we put our people first!”, don’t believe it. That is perhaps the greatest lie of all.
The modern GloboHomoCorps don’t give the minutest quantum of a damn about you. They view you as cogs in the machine of their operations. The moment that you step out of line, you will be destroyed. Dare to question their orthodoxy, or raise your voice in a manner that someone else deems inappropriate, and you will be fired."
https://didacticmind.com/2020/12/free-yourself-from-the-corporate-compact.html
35. This was fast series B. Neat & needed product though.
https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/15/clickup-hits-1-billion-valuation-in-100m-series-b-raise/
36. I don't like him as a person but he is an incredibly talented artist.
"The genius and talent of Kanye West is undeniable, regardless of whether or not people like him. He checks off every box and is the best artist of this century and one of the best of all time. Kanye West defines greatness in his music, and he has done more than enough to earn the title of “Greatest Artist of This Century”. Nobody else really comes close."
https://www.theechonews.com/article/2020/10/xy4mhjdlbrawm9g
37. XYZ VC is a rising but one of the quiet in the background seed stage VCs. Impressive portfolio and good rep in SV.
38. "In truth, there are plenty of managers that have thrived despite growing fund sizes significantly — DCVC, Forerunner, and Felicis are firms that have grown fund sizes, but not at the expense of the risk/return profiles they offer LP’s. In contrast, others such as IA Ventures and Founder Collective have determined that staying within a specific fund size range is optimal for their ability to produce the highest returns.
Fund sizing doesn’t have to be overly complicated and isn’t an exact science but does require thinking across several macro and micro dimensions."
39. "Whenever you can, it might pay to seek to create a game that works for you and for those you seek to serve. Because those games are the sustainable ones and the ones that you can play for a long time to come."
https://seths.blog/2020/12/whats-your-game/
40. "The Big Tech companies are extremely rich, powerful, and led by people with boundless ambition and supreme arrogance. (When someone like ME says that these people are arrogant, that's saying something.) They believe that they can get away with anything. So far, they've been right, because no government has really dared stand up to them.
That will be changing soon, though. The European Commission has already passed enormous fines on Google, Apple, and Facebook, and those fines will grow over time. The US will follow suit at some point, and so will Asia. But until the Big Tech firms get a serious kick in the teeth, in the form of tens of billions in fines and a real threat of forced breakup, they will continue to run roughshod over people like you and me."
https://mailchi.mp/33a82ad148f2/crunch-time-for-the-tech-titans?e=32cdd9e5ec
41. "Another option is to geo-diversify. Honestly, this is where I fall down. This means that your assets, in any way or form (be it money, stocks, gold, real estate or whatever) are not only in one country. The rationale is that if your property is overseas, it cannot be confiscated that easily. I’m not the authority on it, but looking it up, asking around and getting good advice will probably go a long way.
On that note, if you apply for a second citizenship (I started looking into it ~1.5 years ago), that can really help. The best advice I can give here is to consult as much as you can with multiple people and read a lot."
https://didacticmind.com/2020/12/guest-post-the-critical-battle-by-the-male-brain.html
42. "The sustainability of nations and the defensibility of platforms is better when wealth isn’t concentrated in the top 1%. In the real world, a healthy middle class is critical for promoting societal trust, providing a stable source of demand for products and services, and driving innovation. On platforms, less wealth concentration means lessening the risk that a would-be competitor could poach top creators and threaten the entire business."
https://li.substack.com/p/building-the-middle-class-of-the
43. "Indeed, underneath the punching and punchlines, Butler has articulated a vaguely political sensibility: He’s performing a sort of gun-toting patriotism, fighting political corruption, redeeming his past mistakes, and turning his insubordination into a virtue. Throughout all these movies, which range in quality, conspiracy lurks around every corner, nobody can be trusted, and family issues are the sacrificial consequences of the profession.
Though his John McClain hand-me-down doesn’t wear a red hat, he feels like a product of the Trump era—emboldened to “restore” America’s greatness at all costs. The role wouldn’t make sense for the regal stardom of peers like Keanu Reeves. Instead, Butler’s weathered face and garbled accent have produced a populist, attainable model of action hero. He’s flawed. But he owns it."
https://www.gq.com/story/gerard-butler-everyman-action-hero
44. Really good & timely interview. With two giants of investing in Silicon Valley.
45. Go Bucharest. Actually makes sense.
"The country's talent pool "is one of the most important assets. That human capital in IT is one of the best in Europe," a high-level Romanian diplomat who requested to remain anonymous.
That talent can have a dark side too. Romania has a sprawling underground scene of cybercriminals that occasionally taints its reputation — though not enough to have swung the vote."
https://www.politico.eu/article/5-reasons-why-bucharest-won-the-eu-cyber-competence-center-race/
46. Great perspective and idea here.
"One lens through which to view companies is to ask "what companies are an index of their underlying market"?
Index companies often take a cut of every transaction in their space, or are a piece of infrastructure everyone in the market needs.
For example, it is a hard to launch something into space in the West without using SpaceX. These companies may be ways to participate in the market broadly without having to worry about how wins in it."
http://blog.eladgil.com/2020/12/index-companies.html?m=1
47. This is immensely sad to me. The loss of our independent restaurant industry in 2020.
"It took decades and so much blood, sweat and tears for every single American chef, bartender, manager, waiter, busboy, dishwasher and hospitality worker to create this amazing restaurant renaissance in America.
We were the envy of the world and every independent restaurant was at the center of communities, of revenue-generating tourism and a dynamic culture that people loved and supported. We will lose so much of that and we will become a nation of corporate chain restaurants that will look and taste the same in every city. We will lose the culture of regionalism and civic pride in every city in America."
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/18/politics/what-matters-end-of-restaurants/index.html
48. Most people don’t have access to significant amounts of financial leverage until they’ve demonstrated some level of success. But we all have access to another form of leverage which can be the difference between increasing your salary by 10% per year and doubling it every year.
It’s called Personal Leverage: a measure of your ability to extend your productivity beyond yourself.
There are two ways you can increase your personal leverage:
Decrease the amount of time something takes you
Pay a machine or person for their time
The first option is how you get 10% more productive. The second option is how you get 10x more productive. And most people thinking about productivity are disproportionately focused on the first option at the expense of the second."
https://www.nateliason.com/blog/personal-leverage
49. This is going to be a prescient thread & forecast. So many business opportunities that will pop up in 2021 and beyond.
https://twitter.com/levelsio/status/1340099101011156995
Listen to this Newsletter: https://listencat.com/the-hard-fork-by-marvin-liao-podcast/
Operator-Investor Nano Funds are The Future (and Present)
Founders want to take money from smart experienced founders. They want people who have gone through the journey of founding a successful company themselves. Someone who can empathise with their experience in a way a professional investor just cannot.
It started off with the Side angel funds as exemplified by Sriram Krishnan of Kearny Jackson & Ryan Hoover’s Weekend Fund. Both strong operating executives/ entrepreneurs who have gone through the scaling phase of their companies and running their funds alongside their day jobs. This was capped off by $8.3M usd 20Min VC Fund of Harry Stebbings and $7M usd “Todd and Rahul Angel Fund”. Rahul, in case you don’t know, is the Founder & CEO of Superhuman. (I love the name by the way for its simplicity!) Something I wrote about earlier and will explore a bit more here.
Angellist tested this concept of acting like an LP and giving top founders money via their Spearhead investment Fund program, giving each founder up to $1M usd to invest in tech startups in their network. Carry is split between the founders and Spearhead. A very good deal for everyone. A rare Win-Win.
“Spearhead is designed to train founders, who tend to be well-connected to the tech ecosystem and knowledgeable about startups, to be effective angel investors. Previous Spearhead leads include Shippo co-founder and chief executive officer Laura Behrens Wu, Scale AI founder and CEO Alex Wang and Rippling co-founder and chief technology officer Prasanna Sankar. To date, 35 founders have completed the program.”
This trend has been supercharged by the development of Angellist Rolling Funds. Some of the more notable being Sahil Lavingia of Gumroad, Cindy Bi, Jason Jacobs of McJPod, Shaan Puri of Monkey Inferno fame & Immad Akkhund of Mercury Bank fame. Of course, I can’t miss mentioning my friends Carlos Diaz of Diaspora Ventures and Anthony Pompliano (aka Pomp) of the Pomp Podcast.
I foresee a growing Barbell-like structure in Startup Investing. Many big branded institutional Venture Capital Funds dominating from the top. From the bottom, Niche/Industry Specialist managers, Solo Capitalists and Rolling Funds managers will dominate. Some of these may even begin building a traditional venture fund/ firm. Everyone in the middle who is undifferentiated will be squeezed out as they become totally irrelevant to startup founders.
We are seeing the beginning of a new era of operator angels who will displace many of the middling early stage Venture funds. Almost like the structure of many jungles and forests. Lots of big trees covering the top and lots of varieties of plants on the ground floor. Nothing in between, almost like a literal dead zone.
As my friend Harry Stebbings posted:
“With rise of micro funds & supportive/strategic angels; the co-lead/second lead check will be displaced.
Would you rather a 2nd firm w/ $600K (sub-optimal ownership for them) or 3-4 150K angels all bought in, providing value.
The times they are a changing…”
This means all the early stage venture funds out there better step up their game and add that value to founders they claim they do. This has been happening in Silicon Valley for the last few years. With the spread of technology, best practices, more Unicorns growing in other ecosystems and more big exits, I anticipate that this phenomenon will happen in other places across the United States and the rest of the world over the next decade.
Listen to this Newsletter: https://listencat.com/the-hard-fork-by-marvin-liao-podcast/
Trends and Venture Capital Sheep-ism: Why Unsexy is Sexy
“No Conflict, No Interest” & ”Being Contrarian but Right” are the terms bandied around by Venture capitalists. But what do they really mean?
If you think about most recent tech history, most of the biggest & most popular companies now were very unpopular or had a very difficult time fundraising at seed. Uber, Carta, CreditKarma, AirBnB are the companies that stand out to me.
It’s so easy to say it was clear these were going to be the dominant successful companies they are today. But hindsight is 20/20 as always. It was not that obvious back then. In fact, the decision to invest was widely derided by most investors and the media.
The returns can usually be found at the Frontier & usually driven by Outsiders
Upstream is where action is, higher risk yet higher gain. VC Investing is options investing. Asymmetric bets are where returns come from. You can only lose the amount you invest in but the upside is literally multiple times higher than the base amount you put in.
Or to be safe, just do what everyone is doing: invest in founders from Stanford. But that is where everyone is looking. Competition is for losers as Peter Thiel famously stated.
You are probably better off looking at founders from UC Berkeley who are just as good but under-invested in.
Consensus sucks. Consensus is usually wrong & not fact. People are naturally risk-averse and this is why the saying “No one every gets fired for buying from IBM or Mckinsey” exists. (Both suck by the way). The Venture capital version of this is why you see so many me too investments in the same sector that are considered hot. One infamous example in my mind, there were literally hundreds of Food delivery startups funded in 2015 after Greylock & Social Capital led a series B round into Sprig. That sector overall has turned into a major bust overall.
But to be contrarian, we are fighting against our own biological instincts that have been developed for thousands of years. We’re naturally social creatures affected by everyone around us.
That is why there are so few truly original thinkers in the world, even more so in Venture Capital where we literally are in a bubble. This is why diversity of thinking & background is so important to break out of this bubble. This is why you need to travel, read and talk to different kinds of people. This is where ‘First Principle” thinking is critical and a good understanding of your inclinations ie. self awareness. I’ve also found studying cognitive bias like “availability,” “confirmation,” “pessimism” or “optimism”, “halo effect or “status quo” biases can be helpful.
And most important as an investor, once you have done your homework and thinking, have the conviction and commitment to follow through. The hardest part is actually the final decision to invest regardless of what anyone else thinks.
Listen to this Newsletter: https://listencat.com/the-hard-fork-by-marvin-liao-podcast/
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads December 13th, 2020
“Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing himself.” - Leo Tolstoy
I would like to see more stories like this in the media and around the startup ecosystems. Massively successful bootstrapped businesses built without VC money. So many different options for founders these days. Tired of myth making of Venture Capital as much as I believe in it.
"What’s next for Nextiva? Growing at more than 30% a year, it could go public. Given that it is self-funded, it cannot have horrorshow cash burn by definition and meet requisite benchmarks for an IPO. Even more, while Gorny did highlight that being private allowed his company to accelerate and decelerate growth when it wanted to focus more on product work, I got the impression that Nextiva wants to be better-known. And an IPO would help with that."
https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/05/how-one-company-reached-revenues-of-200m-without-vc-money/
2. Short selling is a tough biz. But when it works, it really works. Kudos to these folks for their research & conviction. In this case, the early bet against American malls.
"When CMBX.6 hit bottom in May, Catie McKee and Dan McNamara decided to sell their credit default swaps and reap the profits. MP’s main fund, which includes other investments, was up roughly 75 percent year-to-date, a staggering turn of fate after a tumultuous run that nearly bankrupted the firm.
McKee and McNamara’s sister fund, which was all-in on shorting CMBX.6, had it even better. They saw 120 percent returns after it was all said and done, an ungodly amount of profit considering that many hedge funds saw their capital cut in half when the stock market crashed. In just three months, the scrappy team and their black-sheep idea had brought in well over $100 million in profit for the fund and their investors (before filling the hole created by the previous year’s losses, of course)."
https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a34785141/shopping-mall-short-hedge-fund-covid-19/
3. That time of the year. I remember going to buy a fresh Christmas tree as a kid in Canada.
"Quarter Pine is one of thousands of Christmas tree farms in America. Collectively, these farms sell 25m-30m real Christmas trees to independent lots, big-box retailers, and garden centers every year.
At an average retail price of $75 a pop, these trees make up a $2B+-per-year business.
But what are the economics behind that price tag? Who gets the lion’s share of the profit? And how have Christmas tree producers fared with the growing popularity of artificial trees?"
https://thehustle.co/the-economics-of-christmas-trees/
4. These are good basics. But valuable framework for investors and founders to evaluate if customers/users really do like what you are building.
"As a VC, I’m going to talk to customers and non-customers to discern whether your product is solving a real pain point for them — and to what extent your product is indispensable. I will even ask Sean Ellis’ question “How disappointed would you be if you could no longer use the product?” when I interview customers during my due diligence.
As a founder, I hope you’re regularly talking to your customers and asking the same thing. Many founders don’t, and so they don’t know if their product is a vitamin or a pain killer."
https://medium.com/speroventures/a-framework-for-understanding-customer-love-cfe208d1437f
5. I love Sauna, Banya and Onsen. Nothing better for the health and stress than this. (well outside of sleep, exercise and good diet of course)
"While these correlations are certainly provocative, findings on the physical benefits of sauna heat are well-documented. Laukkanen’s published studies suggest that frequent sauna goers tend to live longer and have a lower risk of cardiovascular disease, compared with those who go once a week.
These observations could have physiological underpinnings—saunas mimic the stress and sweating of light exercise with almost none of the physical exertion—but Laukkanen admits there are several possible explanations. As he put it to me, in less than perfect English that I’m paraphrasing: we shouldn’t underestimate the effects of sitting, calming down, and relaxing."
https://www.outsideonline.com/2408578/saunas-mental-health-research
6. WOW. oh WOW. Such an amazing story on many different fronts. So good. MUST READ.
"After a year of running two shops they had saved $40,000 and Ted decided to expand. He bought a bigger doughnut shop, and offered to lease the original Christy's to a family of Cambodian refugees, who had been working in fast food outlets on low wages. He trained them and handed over the keys.
Ted began to look for more doughnut shops to buy and lease to fellow refugees. "Using money to provide for others is a feeling as powerful as any drug," he later wrote.
Over the years, Ted and Christy sponsored more than 100 families, often hosting them before setting them up with homes, loans, and doughnut shops. Ted encouraged others to do the same. "It went like fire on the hill, so fast," says Ted.
The Cambodians worked hard and because the whole family pitched in, they did not have to pay out any wages. It provided a path for refugees to settle and was a profitable business model. Eventually Cambodians owned so many doughnut shops in California that they dominated the market, pushing Winchell's into second place."
https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-54546427
7. I think this is a really smart deal.
"From the Salesforce perspective, Taylor says that the Slack deal was worth the money because it really allows his company to bring together all the pieces of their platform, one that has expanded over the years from pure CRM to include marketing, customer service, data visualization, workflow and more. Taylor also said that having Slack gives Salesforce a missing communication layer on top of its other products, something especially important when interactions with customers, partners or fellow employees have become mostly digital.
“When we say we really want Slack to be this next generation interface for Customer 360, what we mean is we’re pulling together all these systems. How do you rally your teams around these systems in this digital work-anywhere world that we’re in right now where these teams are distributed and collaboration is more important than ever,” Taylor said."
"As for the companies coming together, both men see a lot of potential here to merge Slack communications with Salesforce’s enterprise software prowess to make something better, and Taylor sees Slack helping link the two with workflows and automations."
https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/04/why-slack-and-salesforce-execs-think-theyre-better-together/
8. The Great Dispersion driven by the pandemic. Very observant.
"Amazon dispersed retail to desktop, to mobile, to voice. Netflix dispersed DVDs to our mailbox, then to every screen. The pandemic is causing dispersion in even larger industries — the greatest opportunity for wealth creation in decades. Work from home, telemedicine, & remote learning represent an impending disruption of over 25% of the U.S. economy. The largest sectors are about to leapfrog HQ, doctor’s offices, hospitals, & campuses.
Not all dispersion is about “x from home” or from cities to smaller towns. Social media is a form of dispersion, enabling connections, competition, and debate despite physical distance, print, and paywalls — the dispersal of community. It has also removed healthy friction (truth, science, editors) resulting in an afterburner for misinformation and conspiracy."
"Dispersion offers the same potential for wealth creation as globalization and digitization. This time around, however, we must be more conscious of downsides. Previous paradigm shifts catalyzed massive prosperity but little progress. We’ve embraced a winner-take-all economy crowding the spoils to fewer firms and people."
https://www.profgalloway.com/the-great-dispersion
9. I've always been a fan of Ukraine. Have so much more respect and admiration for the people here now after watching this.
Freedom and Dignity are universal rights. Something we should not take for granted in the USA & western developed world. This documentary was both heartbreaking and inspiring. Recommended.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RibAQHeDia8
10. This is timely and good. Getting close to the end of the year. So a personal Annual review is always good.
https://schlaf.medium.com/the-ultimate-annual-review-f0452bb83179
11. “Ideally, lockdowns are only done once and done well,” the proposal’s authors, Stephen Duckett and Will Mackey, explained. “The benefit of zero is to reduce the risk of ‘yo-yoing’ between virus flare-ups and further lockdowns to contain them.”
They treated the threats to public health and the economy as intertwined, which most experts agree they are. The Australian states that contained Covid-19 best also saw the strongest economic recoveries."
"The US probably cannot achieve zero Covid-19 cases anytime soon. But it could embrace the spirit of the Victorian model: a clear goal, support for the proven mitigation strategies, and a commitment from the public.
“Having a clear, uniform goal — that everyone could work toward — was critical to Victoria’s success,” Jennifer Kates, director of global health policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation, told me. “But they didn’t just have a goal. They established the underlying components that were needed and provided strong social support.”
“All of this,” she continued, “has been mostly absent in America.”
https://www.vox.com/2020/12/4/22151242/melbourne-victoria-australia-covid-19-cases-lockdown
12. "It perfectly breaks down the difference between a time billionaire and a dollar billionaire. One has financial resources and the other has life resources. Our society overvalues the former, but undervalues the latter."
"With modern technology, the average human will likely live into their early 80s. A billion seconds is just over 31 years. The 20 year old has two billion seconds. The 50 year old has one billion seconds. Take a step back today and ask yourself — do I invest my capital based on the greatest resources that I have access to?
For some of you, that resource is money. But for most of you, that resource is time. Press your advantage. Start thinking in terms of decades. Use your status as a time billionaire to become a dollar billionaire, but remember — the time billionaire always dies with zero."
https://pomp.substack.com/p/time-billionaire
13. I agree with this perspective. SPAC Boom in long run is probably going to be good thing.
“There seems to be a lot of pretty crazy froth, and it’s gonna take years for some of these companies to grow into the valuations,” Thiel tells Forbes. “But I keep thinking the other side of it is that one should think of Covid and the crisis of this year as this giant watershed moment, where this is the first year of the 21st century. This is the year in which the new economy is actually replacing the old economy.”
14. Of course the Russians and others are attacking the new remote work infrastructure. I'd do the same thing if I were in their place.
"THROUGHOUT 2020, AN unprecedented portion of the world's office workers have been forced to work from home as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. That dispersal has created countless opportunities for hackers, who are taking full advantage. In an advisory today, the National Security Agency said that Russian state-sponsored groups have been actively attacking a vulnerability in multiple enterprise remote work platforms developed by VMware."
https://www.wired.com/story/nsa-warns-russia-attacking-vmware-remote-work-platforms/
15. This is one of the reasons I love Japan so much. I need to visit this Ichiwa mochi shop one day.
“Their No. 1 priority is carrying on,” he added. “Each generation is like a runner in a relay race. What’s important is passing the baton.”
Japan is an old-business superpower. The country is home to more than 33,000 with at least 100 years of history — over 40 percent of the world’s total, according to a study by the Tokyo-based Research Institute of Centennial Management. Over 3,100 have been running for at least two centuries. Around 140 have existed for more than 500 years. And at least 19 claim to have been continuously operating since the first millennium."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/business/japan-old-companies.html
16. "Substack is the medium of the solo artist. High-rolling soloists at that. Like Patreon, Onlyfans, book publishing generally, or any other medium where creators connect with the masses sans bundled packaging, Substack has (and will continue to have) a power-law distribution. The biggest names will earn in their hundred of thousands; the median user is going to scrape away $100-200 a month, at best. If measured in page hits instead of dollars, the same could have been said for the high and low tiers of the old blogosphere as well."
https://scholars-stage.blogspot.com/2020/11/why-i-am-bearish-on-substack.html
17. Super thrilled to see this. My old colleagues and friends at Better Tomorrow VC & Unit. So excited to see this news public.
https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/08/unit-raises-18-6m-to-offer-banking-features-as-a-service/
18. Really interesting company here. Varda Space.
19. I can’t wait to see this documentary. Silicon Valley is everywhere.
20. Without sounding like a hater. This is a signal we are at #peakVC
https://www.axios.com/josh-richards-tiktok-vc-investing-1282506b-2102-491e-b644-26bea97896f6.html
21. These are fairly good future of work trends worth reading about.
"Whether you call it “craftsmanship” or “passion economy”, there’s a trend that’s not about to stop and that’s likely to transform work as we know it. More workers seek autonomy at work and want to see the direct impact of their work. They want direct feedback from users, clients, or from the work itself. It means scientific management and division of labour are increasingly challenged."
https://laetitiaatwork.substack.com/p/future-of-work-7-trends-for-2021
22. Thank goodness I am a lazy person. Or Tactically lazy.
"Nature seems to have optimised our biological processes for laziness. Even beyond notoriously idle species such as pythons—which sleep about 18 hours per day—most animals spend a majority of their time doing nothing in particular. And the amount of time they spend doing nothing is correlated to the amount of time they don’t spend on activities such as hunting, foraging, and reproducing.
In Time Resources and Laziness in Animals, Professor Joan Herbers explains that because they have more free time, highly efficient predators may appear to be lazier than relatively unproductive predators."
https://nesslabs.com/benefits-of-laziness?mc_cid=660107d2ee&mc_eid=e1f2edadcf
23. Prepping has become mainstream.
"We're used to just-in-time inventory," he says, referring to the widespread practice among governments, private organisations and firms of only keeping enough stock on hand to fulfil current orders or maintain production.
While the current Covid pandemic is not "the big 'un" in terms of disasters, it has highlighted weaknesses in how we live, he says.
"We've removed slack from the system, whether that's your local energy grid or your water supply, and prepping is a way of taking back onto your own balance sheet the resources that have been reduced in the overall system."
"many have taken to prepping out of a sense of despair at the inaction of government in the face of crisis. "Taking care of your core survival needs, that should be one of the functions of government and where our tax dollars should go."
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-55249590
24. "as Viktor Frankl discovered, beyond the needs for pleasure and power one can find the need for meaning, in the present, moment by moment, even during the most intensely difficult of times.
Everything else, especially the material successes like money, image and status, are secondary, transient and can really only lead to temporary, fleeting happiness. They can be a wonderful part of experiencing life, as long as they are not the foundation upon which our experience and identity are built."
https://integratedlistening.com/blog/2020/12/07/delivering-true-happiness-from-the-inside/
25. I discovered Khe Hy, really fascinating story. I can really relate to him.
"the truth was I was interested in money. There was this backstory of money—we grew up lower middle class, but we were raised into this scarcity mindset. Very much the immigrant mindset that at any point, everything you have can be taken away from you. You can lose it all. They’re just very frugal. And so to me, money could solve a lot of problems and anxiety if you had access to it."
"I had been executing on this plan since I was 15 years old, thinking that one day my bank account will be this size and all of my worries will melt away. And it happened and life got better for sure; life was easier when you’ve saved more money. But the core anxieties that I had—envy of other people, anxiety about not being able to focus on my wife, and this nagging sense that at the end of the day I’m just moving numbers from one cell to another and helping rich people get richer—were still there."
26. I firmly believe in paying it forward. I will also have to try Pecking House one day.
"The moral of the story is that it’s not a zero-sum game. What might be only a few minutes of your time to help make an introduction via an email or text, or to take a 30 minute phone call, can make a huge impact on someone’s life. Take the time and pay it forward. Good things can happen. Lord knows we need them to now more than ever."
https://davelu.medium.com/pay-it-forward-the-story-of-pecking-house-934f2272b219
27. "But the hallmark of a flywheel is momentum, and Roblox is spinning up fast. Prepaid revenues were $1.2 billion in the first nine months, and are growing 171% year over year. Negative working capital is a concept I understand well enough to know it’s awesome.
Roblox could be to Facebook what Shopify is to Amazon, the non–social media social media firm. Just as hospitals, doctors offices, headquarters, shopping malls, and campuses are being bypassed and shifting hundreds of billions in stakeholder value, Roblox could disrupt the kid attention economy. Roblox is set to go public this month, and will create meaningful shareholder value.
Prediction: stock trades up 70% or more on first trade. More important, Roblox could be the first social media firm whose shareholder value isn’t designed to extract value from the least powerful stakeholder, kids."
https://www.profgalloway.com/roblox-and-the-dispersal-of-creativity
28. "The appeal of running your own newsletter is obvious and simple: instead of working for a boss, you can work for yourself. Instead of having your salary determined by management, you can make more money just by getting more subscribers.
And most importantly, instead of feeling like you’re chasing clicks in an ad-supported business model, getting paid directly by subscribers theoretically incentivizes a different and better kind of journalism."
29. "If Core Scientific’s mining ventures are successful, the company will not just make a lot of money. It will also help to repatriate crypto production to the United States, where Bitcoin got its start.
The recent resurgence in crypto mining feels like a good-news story. Mining companies like Core Scientific are in a position to make money and create jobs in rural areas, while also ensuring more Bitcoin—which is becoming a strategic asset—ends up in American hands.
But there are also reasons for caution. The last crypto-mining boom promised similar benefits but resulted in fly-by-night companies leaving a trail of scams and environmental degradation in their wake. Will the outcome be any different this time?"
https://fortune.com/2020/12/12/bitcoin-jobs-cryptocurrency-mining-hiring-core-scientific/
Listen to this Newsletter: https://listencat.com/the-hard-fork-by-marvin-liao-podcast/
The Portfolio Entrepreneur
In a discussion with my friend Eric Siu of Single Grain, I raised this concept of the Portfolio Entrepreneur.
“Basically the idea around the modern entrepreneur having multiple projects (or a portfolio of projects). More below:
Some Benefits:
-Multiple projects =multiple perspectives = more well rounded entrepreneur
-Multiple income streams de-risks the entrepreneur.”
Detractor might be that it decreases focus. (Investors don't like it either btw.)”
Yes, focus is important for all startups and this is very much the Silicon Valley startup founder path. But for those who are not going down the Venture Capital Go Big or Go Home funding route aka Bootstrapping, I think “Portfolio Entrepreneur” route is probably the way to go.
One of the best thinkers and practitioners in this area is Tiago Forte of Forte Labs.
“Portfolio thinking recognizes that having multiple parallel projects provides many opportunities for synergy. They don’t have to interfere with and impede each other — they can actually combine into something greater than the sum of its parts. Each one can make the others easier, more fun, and more profitable.”
Source: The Rise of the Full-Stack Freelancer
This portfolio of products and services can ultimately be of benefit not just to yourself but to prospective clients and customers. It’s a Win-Win.
Tiago goes on to say better than I can.
“If you only have one offering, then the value of, say, building a new website only flows to one node. If you have 5 offerings, that single website adds value to all 5 nodes with a single effort.
Since my portfolio is a network, it exhibits network effects: each offering added increases the value of all the others.
I believe this is actually the most profound benefit of a portfolio approach to work: it is fundamentally unbounded when it comes to personal growth, creativity, and learning. Changing direction is just a matter of adding or removing an item from your portfolio, not making a dramatic, wrenching career change. This offers the possibility of a deeper sustainability than even a well-paying job can provide.”
Diversification is King in a fast changing world like the one way we live in today. We have no idea how fast things change (or break). Customers/clients stop paying. Governments get toppled, or currencies or banks die. Just look at the pandemic and the atrociously incompetent responses across the globe in the USA, United Kingdom and European Union which are supposedly the best equipped to handle pandemics.
The wealthiest people have at least 7 streams of income. This is definitely something all of us can learn from, emulate and build towards. Being more “Anti-Fragile” is a good thing and something i think we all can agree on in 2020 and beyond.
For those interested in doing this, I would recommend this following book. “The 10% Entrepreneur Book” by Patrick McGinnis. It’s something I wish I had started doing much earlier in my career. Don’t make the same mistake I did, it's not too late.
Listen to this Newsletter: https://listencat.com/the-hard-fork-by-marvin-liao-podcast/
High Opportunity Places vs. High Quality of Life: The Trade Offs
I feel very fortunate to have the life that I have. Growing up in Vancouver, Canada. Then living in San Francisco for two decades. Doing Business all across the globe in Asia, Europe, Latin America, Africa, Australasia and MENA region since 2001. Because of all my travels I’ve been able to get a good perspective on many different regions and countries and their prospective business and living situations.
I would classify the world’s countries into the following and very simple categories: High Quality of Life versus High Quality of Opportunities.
Some examples to characterize this better.
High Quality of Life aka First World (not sure how i feel about this term): European Union, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan
High Quality of Opportunities aka Emerging Markets: Africa, China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Latin America, Eastern Europe
(Note: these are not value judgements, just some general observations. I found that every place I visited had so many compelling things about them and you can live very good lives anywhere)
How I would describe the High Quality of Life places. They are stable politically, environmentally clean (good quality air and water), good rule of law, low crime. Good healthcare and education systems. Mainly middle class and arguably not super commercial places. One way to check this is to see how late stores are open on sunday. One could almost say stagnant or stable economic growth.
Contrast this to the High quality of Opportunity places. You don’t have many of the things mentioned in First World countries. General infrastructure whether it is roads, schools and general energy supply tends to be lacking or in the process of being built (China is the exception here). But there is a growing population and a fast emerging middle class. This gap is where there are a plethora of big business opportunities. If you want to confirm, just check the GDP growth rate or local stock markets of these countries over the last few years.
I saw this growing up in Canada with the mass exodus of well to do immigrant business people from Hong Kong, then Taiwan and then Mainland China. From 1991 to 2005, there were between 30,000 to 40,000 immigrants from these regions moving to Canada every year. Many of them came to Canada so their families could have a better life. But soon after, the parents got bored with the lack of excitement and business opportunities eventually moved back home. Or in many cases, they just sent the wife and kids over while the father stayed home running the business as they did not see many interesting opportunities in Vancouver or Toronto. Hard to compare a 1.3 Billion person market like China moving into the developed world status to a 30M population of mainly middle class Canada.
I would posit what makes the United States so attractive to many people (well at least until recent years) was that it is a good compromise between the high quality life and high quality of opportunities. If you compare the quality of life in the United States to Canada, New Zealand or Austria for example, I think it really comes up very short (in my humble opinion) on many fronts, the safety net, health care, basic education, level of crime/safety. But when it comes to career or business opportunities, the USA completely outweighs these places. And it’s why it attracts so many ambitious Australians, Canadians, French Kiwis etc. Yet at same time, the opportunities for young hungry individuals are nowhere close to places in the Emerging Markets.
No right answer, only answer is what’s best for you & what you are optimizing for. Lots of trade offs but if i were an ambitious 20 something i would be heading to the frontier like Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa or Eastern Europe. That is where the future growth is going to be.
Listen to this Newsletter: https://listencat.com/the-hard-fork-by-marvin-liao-podcast/
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads December 6th, 2020
“The measure of intelligence is the ability to change” -Albert Einstein
Ryan Reynolds is one of the very few Hollywood celebrities who knows how to invest in and promote startups & products in such a savvy & effective way.
"Standing over a bear trap, Reynolds dryly states: “At Mint Mobile, we don’t hate you.”
Reynolds enjoys nearly 17 million Twitter followers & more than 36 million Instagram followers. He uses both platforms to promote his various brands without alienating his followers. Moreover, he doesn’t exclusively promote his brands on social media, but weaves in his own funny personal commentary or gives followers a peek into his marriage with Blake Lively, which we can all agree is #relationshipgoals.
Mint Mobile partners exclusively with T-Mobile to provide service, & unlike some other MVNOs, it uses a direct-to-consumer model, foregoing any physical footprint. Plans start at $15/month & top out at $30/month. CMO Aron North says that Reynolds’ ownership & involvement with Mint Mobile is “absolutely critical.”
“Ryan is an A plus plus celebrity, and he’s very funny and entertaining and engaging,” said North. “His reach has given us a much bigger platform to speak on. I would say he is absolutely critical in our success and our growth.”
https://techcrunch.com/2020/11/28/how-ryan-reynolds-and-mint-mobile-worked-without-becoming-the-joke/
2. Incredibly insightful and important for whatever you do.
"You see this pattern with startup founders too. You don't want to start a startup to do something that everyone agrees is a good idea, or there will already be other companies doing it. You have to do something that sounds to most other people like a bad idea, but that you know isn't — like writing software for a tiny computer used by a few thousand hobbyists, or starting a site to let people rent airbeds on strangers' floors.
Ditto for essayists. An essay that told people things they already knew would be boring. You have to tell them something new.
But this pattern isn't universal. In fact, it doesn't hold for most kinds of work. In most kinds of work — to be an administrator, for example — all you need is the first half. All you need is to be right. It's not essential that everyone else be wrong.
There's room for a little novelty in most kinds of work, but in practice there's a fairly sharp distinction between the kinds of work where it's essential to be independent-minded, and the kinds where it's not."
“Independent-mindedness seems to be more a matter of nature than nurture. Which means if you pick the wrong type of work, you're going to be unhappy. If you're naturally independent-minded, you're going to find it frustrating to be a middle manager. And if you're naturally conventional-minded, you're going to be sailing into a headwind if you try to do original research.”
http://paulgraham.com/think.html
3. Interesting list of countries. Would love to visit Colombia, Mongolia and Uzbekistan. Big fan of Armenia and Ukraine.
"Beyond any other metric that you care to mention, culture is important. How people think and how they act when faced with an obstacle is valuable information.
If they are not adaptable or hard-working, why should a nation full of people with such a mindset ever do well?
All around the world, there are countries with the capacity to be fantastic economic powerhouses, but for some reason or another, their progress was halted. It might have been that they didn’t have the technology, the business know-how, the capital markets, or the political system to move forward.
But the culture is there. And now they’re in a position to rise up to face the challenge, and you can make a tidy profit by helping them do so."
https://nomadcapitalist.com/2020/06/24/international-investment-markets/
4. This is a good background on Ryan Reynolds advertising agency he co-runs.
"Besides being known for his role in the Deadpool movies, a witty Twitter presence, and his banters with Hugh Jackman, Ryan Reynolds is also the co-founder of the ad agency, Maximum Effort Productions.
He heads the agency with George Dewey, content, communication, and creative professional who has worked at McCann, SpaceX, and Twentieth Century Fox.
The duo decided to formalize the venture in 2018 after their marketing efforts for Deadpool 2 raked in $785 million at the box office."
https://www.martechadvisor.com/articles/ads/ryan-reynolds-took-the-advertising-world-by-storm/
5. Man, I really want to go mushroom picking in Ukraine.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/29/world/europe/ukraine-mushrooms.html
6. "As we steam towards the end of this “annus horribilis” and look to a brighter future, we need to rethink how we handle differences, of all kinds. Let us begin with this basic premise: weird is good. Lean in."
7. I'm very optimistic here. I believe as horrible as Covid has been, it will awaken immense innovation and opportunities for all of us. It will end the Great Stagnation we've been in the last few decades.
"But perhaps VR/AR can become the next consumer electronic platform with a whole suite of specialized productivity-enhancing features, similar to the previous waves of computers and mobile phones. It seems plausible that many future vaccines will be made more quickly using this same mRNA technique that (we hope) works for COVID.
Maybe specialized AI manages to find 20 to 40% improvements to basically every informationally complex task we do. Finally we could see driverless cars/trains/trucks fulfill their promise and reshape American cities in a more healthy and human-centric way. With advanced geothermal or nuclear energy we would not only have clean energy, but abundant energy too cheap to meter, with all the economic applications downstream benefiting from that.
If some combination of those things happen, we will look back at the roaring 20’s as the decade which broke through the Great Stagnation."
8. "We don’t expect successful business managers to be fortune tellers either. So what do you do if you can’t predict the future, and don’t want your company caught off-guard as you navigate an uncertain, ever-changing economic landscape?
We’ve found that nimble, adaptive companies tend to be successful over the long term and offer investors a wider margin of safety. Indeed, we would argue that relying exclusively on valuation for safety, especially given the accelerating pace of disruption in the Information Age, is downright dangerous."
https://www.nzscapital.com/sitalweek/redefining-margin-of-safety
9. "The EU is the region with the greatest degree of participation in global value chains, but that participation — in the EU’s regional value chain as well as globally — is shrinking fast, a phenomenon that may have significant relevance for the integration of the EU single market. The EU’s decreasing role in value chains is linked to technological innovation and human capital. On both fronts, we find preliminary evidence that China is catching up very fast."
10. "The good news for entrepreneurs is that windows of opportunities for startups always keep opening and closing in various markets at different points in time. The bad news is that any particular window of opportunity remains open for a short time. Therefore, timing in a market can make or break a business. Launch too soon and customers reject it for being too unfamiliar and launch too late and the market is already well-established.
Both having no competitors or having too many competitors is a clear sign of wrong timing. Don’t build things nobody wants. And don’t build things that competitors are already fulfilling. Capitalism rewards rare and valuable."
https://invertedpassion.com/dont-be-a-first-mover/
11. Interesting move but such an awesome eclectic career path like many of the best people in Silicon Valley (or anywhere).
12. Not sure how I feel about this. One of biggest things I missed in 2020 is going to a live bookstore and browsing around.
https://www.protocol.com/manuals/retail-resurgence/covid-forced-bookstores-online-can-they-survive
13. Sadly this is a bad outcome for the early investors and employees. Liquidation preferences matter.
What happens when you raise too much money too early and just don't ship & sell to grow into your valuation. It happens alot.
14. Not sure why anyone would be surprised here that China is fudging their Covid numbers. They fudge their economic growth numbers and most numbers. Period.
"I believe that the Chinese government is massively under-reporting infection data in the pandemic regions of Hubei and Zhejiang provinces.
Just like the American government massively over-reported North Vietnamese casualty data in the Vietnam War."
https://www.epsilontheory.com/body-count/
15. Hard not to get outraged by reading this. There is alot here & it’s aged well since April.
"Those stories are dying. They are dying because the institutions built on those stories failed us all, and all at once.
First, the people die; then, the stories.
The failures of these institutions were not simple mistakes, evidence of wrongness of one kind or another. The failures of these institutions were failures of narrative, devastating revelations of each institution’s fundamental inability to do what they said they would do.
"Friends, for the first time in any of our lifetimes, everyone around us is seeing the same things that we are seeing about the same institutions. They know the same things we know. We may all observe in real-time the brokenness of a fragile economic system built on the present-efficient tools of the Long Now, the over-optimization of cash, inventory, supply chains, operating and financial leverage.
We may all observe in real-time how complexity makes liars out of global institutions designed with political pacification of the masses (“All is well!”) as their primary purpose.
16. Good one from my buddy.
"The fact that more founders are choosing to create syndicates highlights another shift in early-stage venture capital: the stigma around “party rounds” is all but gone. In the past, having no clear lead was seen as risky due to the lack of available follow-on capital. “If things go south,” the narrative went, “no one will bail you out.” While that can still hold true to some extent, it’s far less of an issue that in previous years, particularly at the early stages."
"Free of the stigma of syndicates and with an unprecedented number of early-stage funding options, I expect we’ll see many more founders raise “non-traditional” Pre-Seed and Seed rounds in the years ahead."
https://ckneumann.medium.com/why-vc-unbundling-is-great-for-founders-5e9420870d82
17. Key lessons from the Salesforce acquisition of Slack. Think it makes alot of sense.
"What you can learn:
--Bundling is magic.
--Salesforce and Microsoft are the main two natural acquirers for any enterprise SaaS product.
--If you control the right layer in the value chain — like a central hub for employee communication — the strategic value of your position might be worth more to acquirers than as a stand-alone money-printing business."
https://divinations.substack.com/p/why-salesforce-bought-slack-430
18. "While the story of American Dream is unique in many ways, its struggles are emblematic of the bleak future facing many US malls and department stores — whose destinies have long been intertwined. The downfall of these onetime crown jewels of retail will have meaningful impacts on the Americans who work for them and the communities they’ve long called home."
"Across the US, department stores are shrinking or shuttering altogether. In 2011, US department stores employed 1.2 million employees across 8,600 stores, according to estimates from the research firm IBISWorld. But in 2020, there are now fewer than 700,000 employees in the sector, working across just over 6,000 locations."
https://www.vox.com/recode/21717536/department-store-middle-class-amazon-online-shopping-covid-19
19. Lots of great founder wisdom here from cofounder of Segment.
"The startups who most rapidly improve are the ones who are able to take outside information, and then incorporate it into their product, their strategy, and their worldview. That's why, you should always be optimizing for one metric in addition to revenue and user growth: learning.
At any given time, your startup should have somewhere between 1-3 existential risks. Big questions that you are worried about that you really want the answers to. It's your job to get the answers to these questions."
"For most startups, it's better to do a few things well than try and do too many things poorly."
https://calv.info/early-stage-lessons
20. So very interesting for architecture fans. Super trippy pics of Soviet architecture.
21. This is SUPER interesting & a BIG DEAL!
"Liquidity is Coming" to startup land!
https://henrysward.medium.com/liquidity-is-coming-761a9140dedd
22. WOW. I mean HP totally sucks now & sort of irrelevant but they were one of the first in Silicon Valley. This move to Houston is kind of big deal and signal.
"Sobering" is right. This is not just an indictment of Silicon Valley but the poorly governed extreme left wing progressive mess that is California. (BTW I am left wing too)
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/news/is-silicon-valley-losing-its-shine-4275033/
23. "So what do I believe the future holds for venture partnerships vs. solo capitalists?
I believe solo capitalists are here to stay. They are finding founder-investor fit with a number of entrepreneurs, and leading competitive financing rounds. They’re an interesting option for founders, and an exciting career path for investors at any stage.
But I do also believe that the best partnerships have advantages that enable them to out-perform on all aspects of the venture capital model over a long period of time."
https://nbt.substack.com/p/venture-partnerships-vs-solo-capitalists
24. Ben is super credible and has a very impressive portfolio as both an angel and VC. No surprise this fund is oversubscribed.
"Between the more than five years that Ling spent with Sand Hill Road firm and the “nearly 80” investments he made as an angel investor before that, he says he has invested in 10 “unicorns” altogether so far, including Rippling, Airtable, Udemy, Quora, Instacart, Gusto, and the now publicly traded companies Pagerduty, Square, Lyft, and Palantir.
A Stanford PhD in computer science, Ling insists that by working as a lone GP — one supported by three principals — he can continue getting into more hot deals, too. “It’simportant because you can make decisions much more quickly, whereas in partnerships, you have to get a partner looped in, and all those days can cost you an investment opportunity.”
25. This is a pretty neat story. Nav the Flash crash trader.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZDEWVJan0s
26. This is a good retrospective look at 2020: reminder that as crap as it was, there may be some good things coming out of the year where the world literally has changed.
https://www.gq.com/story/the-best-things-about-2020
27. This is sad but it shows that EVERYONE faces their own internal demons. Even more so when you have resources to enable them. The world lost a good man here.
“He fostered so much human connection and happiness, yet there was this void,” the close friend continued. “It was difficult for him to be alone.”
"In some ways, count him as another Covid-19 victim, except that instead of succumbing to the disease itself, the virus appears to have accelerated some wrenching internal battles and a series of terrible external decisions."
28. "Find your purpose in life through meditation and prayer. Or, find your calling through repeated and difficult failure in life.
But once you find that purpose, devote yourself to that ideal and don’t let it go. You are here for a reason. Put everything else out of your mind. Pay whatever price you must. Seek out your goal with single-minded fervour.
Be careful not to limit yourself too narrowly when you devote yourself to your ideal purpose. The Greeks understood the danger of doing so."
“The Greeks were not trying to create men who would easily be pulled into various different directions. They were actually trying to build men who were good at being MEN. This lifestyle would create men with strong bodies, minds, and souls. That was the Greek notion of balance: a body, mind, and soul working in harmony.
This reached its apotheosis with, of all things, the Spartan agoge. The agoge was a brutal and terrifying system of education by soft, weak, and pitiful modern standards.”
https://didacticmind.com/2020/12/devote-yourself-to-an-ideal.html
29. Lots of good insights here. Well worth a read for founders and investors.
"One thing few people realize about billionaires is that all of them could have stopped sooner. They could have gotten acquired, or found someone else to run the company. Many founders do. The ones who become really rich are the ones who keep working. And what makes them keep working is not just money. What keeps them working is the same thing that keeps anyone else working when they could stop if they wanted to: that there's nothing else they'd rather do.
That, not exploiting people, is the defining quality of people who become billionaires from starting companies. So that's what YC looks for in founders: authenticity. People's motives for starting startups are usually mixed. They're usually doing it from some combination of the desire to make money, the desire to seem cool, genuine interest in the problem, and unwillingness to work for someone else. The last two are more powerful motivators than the first two. It's ok for founders to want to make money or to seem cool. Most do. But if the founders seem like they're doing it just to make money or just to seem cool, they're not likely to succeed on a big scale."
http://paulgraham.com/ace.html
30. “Savvy investors have realised that diversification is as relevant to lifestyle planning as it is to wealth management. By spreading their assets across a range of markets and jurisdictions, over time they are more likely to harvest returns than if they hedge their bets on one country alone — even if that is a world-leading nation.”
“Increasingly, people prefer the concept of being a global citizen, rather than being solely tied to the country of their birth,” he said. “They too value the many associated benefits including visa-free travel, world-class education, optimal healthcare, political and economic stability, reduced tax liabilities and wider business and career opportunities.
“The pandemic has brought into sharp focus what really matters to people: family, freedom and security.”
https://international-adviser.com/number-of-hnws-seeking-second-passport-skyrockets/
31. "Outside of the positive changes that COVID-19 is bringing *for a select group[* (ability to save tons of time and increase margins), we can look at the implications of the December shut down which are as follows: 1) more restaurants/retail will be shut down for good, 2) this will cause online sales to see a significant boost in December, 3) companies that were on the fence about remote working, will likely make it a permanent option, 4) major cities will continue to see outflows for example SF -> Nevada/Texas, Boston/NYC -> Miami/Carolinas, and preference for lower cost cities such as Nashville, 5) executives will be paid a *lot* since they know their workers won’t be able to move easily & 6) additional loss of trust with the government will make a vaccine deployment harder as citizens will not trust the initial solution.
Putting feelings aside, that appears to be the impact of the decision to shut down businesses in major cities. That said, you (yes you the reader) has to adapt or die. Keep your costs at near zero (especially if you own anything related to brick and mortar) and continue to build an online business/presence. The big will get bigger, but at least e-tail/online sales is a growing market."
https://wallstreetplayboys.com/realizing-time-can-be-saved-and-comments-on-december/
Listen to this Newsletter: https://listencat.com/the-hard-fork-by-marvin-liao-podcast/
Old Man Yells at (Tech) Cloud
At risk of sounding like an angry old man and by Silicon Valley standards I kind of am, as a 46 year old. As someone who has been in the tech industry and in San Francisco since January 1999 there was a lot of “History repeating itself.”
I started having a tremendous amount of personal disquiet about the Tech industry starting in 2017. I saw a widespread lack of thoughtfulness & hype. At the same time, I also saw an incredibly high level of arrogance and bad behavior from both founders and Investors during this time in Silicon Valley. All mainly driven by Greed due to the immense amount of money coming into the industry. The Softbank Vision Fund was only just a signal of the overall craziness.
Reminded me of the stupidity driven by Frenzy & FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) that happened in 1999-2000, in the run up from 2006-2007 and more recently the Crypto ICO insanity in 2017.
Add to this, the increasing bubble and distance the tech industry was building around itself. This caused a massive disconnect to the real world, the rest of America and the world. For comparison, the average per capita income in the USA was $63,174 USD, in the San Francisco Bay area per capita was $96,265 usd. But add on another filter, for tech workers it is $122,000. A very large difference. Granted it is much more expensive to live in the SF Bay Area but this additional surplus of capital allows folks to build a bubble around themselves. A live example is of the self contained Google, Facebook and Twitter amenity filled campuses/offices where you literally do not need to leave the grounds at all. So we saw for most part, tech startups building stuff for high income earning urban dwellers leading to a dangerous echo chamber.
You can argue that Silicon Valley is incredibly diverse. It certainly is from a racial/international perspective. But from a socio-economic, educational perspective whether you are from India, Russia, USA, France, Argentina, Mexico, Canada etc. most of us in Silicon Valley tech are basically the same person with similar view/ values. Net net: left wing, high post secondary education and global minded + high income. This opens up a huge blind spot and why so many of us were shocked by the 2016 elections of Trump.
So what is the point of this tirade?
I believe that as the great educator and startup guru Steve Blank said, the importance of “getting out of the building” becomes even more important in times like this. In this case, getting out of your bubble, talking to customers both perspective and even talking to non-customers as an anti-pattern.
Building and hiring diverse people from other countries and races and sexes. Traveling within the country to non-coastal states and internationally as I’ve espounded on many times. For me, I also spend time reading right wing media like Breitbart and Fox, both of whose views I viscerally dislike and disagree with. But it certainly is still helpful to understand other’s differing perspectives.
I hold the view that technology, like many tools, ultimately is neutral. But I also understand the massively disruptive power technology has on the world.
The way we harness this technology in a society positive way is by understanding as much of the different people’s perspectives outside of our own filter bubbles. I think this is finally happening in 2020 with the pandemic. We have seen many key Silicon Valley investors and founders dispersing all over the USA and the world. These evacuees' mental horizons will be opened in these new environments. At the same time, they will bring their talent, knowledge, best practices and mindset to these new places. A true win-win in my view and why we will see technology become even more ingrained in the world and the rise of even more successful startup ecosystems all over the place.
Listen to this Newsletter: https://listencat.com/the-hard-fork-by-marvin-liao-podcast/
Media Company of One
“Whether you like it or not, every person is now a media company. The tools are easy, free, and everywhere. More importantly, producing content is now the BASELINE for all brands and companies. It literally doesn’t matter what business you’re in, what industry you operate in, if you’re not producing content, you basically don’t exist.”
Gary Vaynerchuk wrote this in 2013. In 2020, this is more appropriate than ever. Look at the crazy career arc of super successful folks like Joe Rogan, Tim Ferriss, Tiago Forte, David Perell, Zuby, Hiten Shah, Anthony Pompliano or Eric Siu. They are in completely different industries but have attracted immense followings. I believe they provide a blueprint for how businesses will be built in the future. This is a content and audience-first approach to business building, what I call the “East coast” approach.
This is in contrast to what I call the “West coast” tech startup approach of “Build it & they will come” approach. In other words, the traditional Silicon Valley way of building the product first, then figuring out audience and distribution. This is an approach that when it works, it works well but it is now becoming outdated in my humble opinion.
Some universal lessons that we can take from their success.
They are consistent over a long period of time. Joe Rogan started his podcasts 11 years ago. Tim Ferriss started his 6 years ago. Pomp started on Twitter in 2017.
They dominate one audience platform or format initially before moving to start on another one. Pomp started with Twitter in 2017, then a Newsletter in 2018 and then podcasting in 2019 which translated well into Youtube. Tim Ferris and Joe Rogan on podcasting and have predominantly been strong there.
They started very small but kept going. They were prolific and regular. David Perell releases 2 newsletters a week consistently (monday and friday btw). Pomp literally tweets several times a day, he writes 5 newsletters a week, releases an interview almost every other day. Tim releases at least a new podcast interview every week. Joe Rogan releases new content every other day. I literally cannot keep with them. How many folks do you know who say they want to tweetstorm more regularly, podcast or blog more regularly? Yet you see them drop off after 5 posts or podcast episodes. This is quite common. You have to keep doing this for a VERY long time. You have to keep at this for at least 2 years in my opinion.
Why Should you do this?
Eric Siu: The benefits of creating a 'one-man media company':
- Defensible moat that insulates you from disasters
- Allows you to take shots
- Provides different income opportunities
- Gives you a stable foundation
(Source: https://twitter.com/ericosiu/status/1295372052854054912)
For all entrepreneurs, students and corporate execs, get working on your one person media company! It’s not too late and this will help you in whatever you end up doing. It is your “serendipity machine” as David Perell states. He goes further to say:
“It’s the best way to learn faster, build your resume, and find peers and collaborators who can create job and business opportunities for you.
Content builds on itself. It multiplies and compounds.
Day and night, your content searches the world for people and opportunities. Projects, mentors, speaking gigs, job offers, pitches, investment opportunities, interview requests, podcast appearances, and invitations to special events. It all starts with sharing ideas online.”
Now is the time!
Listen to this Newsletter: https://listencat.com/the-hard-fork-by-marvin-liao-podcast/
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads November 29th, 2020
“Every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end.” —Seneca
Wind power is here in America. This Ukrainian immigrant entrepreneur is one big reason.
“I’m an engineer. Not an environmentalist,” says Michael Polsky, as if to explain why even after spending 17 years developing renewable-energy systems, he’s still enthralled by the sight of 125-foot-long wind turbine blades sweeping in elegant circles through the sky.It’s machines that this serial entrepreneur loves. And building. And making profitable deals. After becoming a centimillionaire by developing gas-fired turbines, the 71-year-old has ridden wind power to billionaire status.
If you’re just making money, you can only go so far,’’ he says. “When you have a mission, a conviction, you perform on a completely different level. You believe so strongly, you don’t take no for an answer.”
2. I love Substack & what they are doing.
"Substack, established in 2017 by three tech-and-media guys—Chris Best, Hamish McKenzie, and Jairaj Sethi—is a newsletter platform that allows writers and other creative types to distribute their work at tiered subscription rates. Newsletters go back at least as far as the Middle Ages, but these days, with full-time jobs at stable media companies evaporating—between the 2008 recession and 2019, newsroom employment dropped by 23 percent—Substack offers an appealing alternative. And, for many, it’s a viable source of income."
"Because newsletter creators retain control of their email list, archives, and intellectual property, Substack’s main selling point is independence—from bosses, from ad-dependent corporate media models, from the whims of tech monopolies like Google and Facebook. The founders don’t claim that Substack will “save” media—a promise that’s bound to disappoint—but they argue that their model is a core part of a better, more worker-centric and reader-friendly future for journalism."
https://www.cjr.org/special_report/substackerati.php
3. "Many people tend to write off self-help literature as little more than fodder for the worried well-off, and as Blum concedes, there is good reason to do so. Between books on self-actualization, speaking circuits for self-appointed life coaches, high-priced personal growth seminars, and corporate-sponsored self-care initiatives, the $10 billion a year industry can seem to be little more than, as she puts it, “a force…that fosters privatized solutions to systemic problems.”
"But as Blum shows, the genre actually originated in the literature of radical self-improvement societies and the collective do-it-yourself efforts of 19th century British anarchists and socialists."
https://www.thenation.com/article/culture/self-help-compulsion-beth-blum-review/
4. One of the clear winners of the 2020 pandemic. Onlyfans.
"OnlyFans is a subscription social media site that lets fans pay to get exclusive content from creators. The site is perhaps best known for its adult entertainment content, which likely would make it difficult to raise venture capital anyway. Stokely, though, emphasizes that OnlyFans is for all types of entertainers, and he hopes to broaden into areas such as sports."
"Indeed, creators on platforms like TikTok and Instagram regularly tell their followers to sign up for their OnlyFans page to get exclusive behind-the-scenes material. OnlyFans has become enough of a pop-culture phenomenon for Beyoncé to name-drop it in a song.
As Stokely sees it, OnlyFans allows creators to become “the CEO of their own channels” and make revenue by catering to their most ardent fans. The company makes money by exacting a 20% fee from each transaction. That’s often higher than what competitive services charge, like Patreon, which can take as little as 5%. He says more than 100 creators have made $1 million or more through the site."
5. "the gangly, curly-haired 23-year-old has spent the past year on the road, poking a microphone into the oft-shocking subcultures of America for his show, “All Gas No Brakes.”
Callaghan has interviewed protestors, porn stars, Proud Boys, and Bigfoot hunters. He’s braved the crowds at Border Security Expos and Burning Man. He’s lent an ear to flat-earthers, alien truthers, psychonauts, and intoxicated partygoers.
Since launching in August 2019, “All Gas No Brakes” has amassed 3m+ fans on Instagram and YouTube. In getting there, Callaghan has had the help of Doing Things Media (DTM), a digital media company that runs a network of 25+ brands with an audience of 60m+ across platforms.
Doing Things’ revenue is almost at $10m for 2020 — 3x its haul from 2019. That’s partly been buoyed by merch.
“About half of Doing Things’ revenue is branded content,” says Hailey. “The other half is a mix of (mostly) merchandise, subscription, platform, and video licensing.”
With all of these moves, Doing Things Media is building out the playbook for what prominent business writer Web Smith calls linear commerce, whereby the lines between media and commerce are blurring.
In a previous world, a company would build a product and then go find an audience to market to. Today, those who wield a sizable audience have a better sense of what products can sell — and they’re poised to go out and make them. This approach greatly reduces customer acquisition costs."
https://thehustle.co/all-gas-no-brakes-the-inside-story-of-the-internets-favorite-interview-series/
6. Talk about wacky....."Dentist DJ Dictator."
"Berdimuhamedow has ruled the former Soviet republic since the death of his predecessor Saparmurat Niyazov in 2006, who curated his own infamous Stalinist cult of personality over his 16-year term in office. He famously renamed months and the days of the week after his relatives and even had his own gold statue that would famously rotate to face the sun. But it didn’t take long for Berdimuhamedow, then a former dentist who later became health minister, to dismantle Niyazov’s personality cult and replace it with his own.
In a move akin to Roman emperors, he lifted a ban in 2010 and reinstatedthe traditional big top circus - complete with clowns, fire-eaters, jugglers, lion-tamers and trapeze artists. He rides horses in public (and fell off one in a viral clip), engages in dagger-throwing, car racing and taekwondo. At a 2020 new year’s party, he was seen on camera deejaying at a rave. He also waged a peculiar crackdown on satellite dishes and air-conditioners."
7. "Now, in Egypt circa 2009, the government wasn’t even trying because it was preoccupied with the maintenance of the regime and skimming off the economy.
In the US circa 2020, our so-called leaders aren’t even trying because they’re preoccupied with zero-sum power games, and skimming off the economy (one need look no further than the farce that has played out around a second Covid stimulus package).
History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes.
I am still thinking through the investment implications of all this. My base case is now what I have called “the zombification of everything.”
MOAR dysfunction. MOAR debt. MOAR government intervention in capital markets (to hedge the political class from the financial consequences of its own ineffectiveness, ‘natch). Low rates, low growth, (alleged) low inflation, as far as the eye can see. The market narrative cartoon of this regime will be disinflation. In reality, I think it’s more of a stagflationary regime. But the cartoon is what matters for your returns. So somewhat paradoxically, this is GOOD for risk assets. Particularly long duration assets."
https://demonetizedblog.com/2020/11/21/zombieland/
8. I love this list of countries. Some of my favorite in the world. Good alternatives to the so-called First world. You can have it all sometimes.
"You can find the cheapest countries in the world. You can find the safest countries to live in. But if you want both, Eastern Europe (Georgia, Serbia, Armenia) is a great place to start.
If you know what you’re doing in Asia, places like Taiwan and Malaysia are also very safe and reasonably affordable. There may be some purse snatching, but there isn’t a lot of violent crime."
https://nomadcapitalist.com/2020/11/18/cheapest-safest-countries-to-live-in
9. "I live for myself and answer to nobody"--Steve McQueen
https://apexalpha.blog/a-successful-life-starts-with-mindset/
10. Thesis investing is really the only way forward for investing in any sector or category or asset. USV has nailed it in VC & this shows why. Generalists are toast in the new world (and I admit I am generalist investor so lots of personal retooling needed)
"All of this is a relentless effort to figure out what we are looking for and then go out and find it. It is not a static thing. It is a dynamic thing. A pandemic comes along and rocks our world. Time to revisit the thesis and the deep dives. When the pandemic ends, and it will, we will factor that into our thinking too.
In a world with so much opportunity, it pays to ignore the vast majority of it and focus on a tiny bit of it. That may seem counterintuitive, but I am certain that it is the right thing to do."
https://avc.com/2020/11/knowing-what-you-are-looking-for-2/
11. Good job Sherwin Williams! Some kid takes the initiative and it gets crazy good results for company. Corporate overlords fire him. This is why big companies suck!
Popular Paint-Mixing TikToker Fired By Sherwin-Williams
12. This is why the market works, like it or not.
"The Cobra effect" ie. Perverse Incentives.
https://deliber.at/2020/perverse-incentives
13. WFA=Work From Anywhere is a real thing.
14. Good news for Fish and the earth.
"I knew the pattern those trailblazers had to follow: media campaigns to convince people their fake meats weren’t bizarre, slow rollouts of product in a handful of hipster restaurants, and then years of struggle to develop the production and distribution needed to reach the mainstream.
I’d assumed alternative seafood would follow the same tortuous path. Yet here was Good Catch, already stocked by mainstream supermarkets like Whole Foods and Giant. Perhaps the trail had been blazed. And that made me wonder if the world of seafood was about to get pounded by a wave of fishless fish."
"Second spoiler alert: it is. Many of the most popular seafoods now suddenly face direct competition from dozens of startups offering animal-free alternatives. The industry is still tiny, but sales of plant-based foods have surged 29 percent in the past two years, compared with just 4 percent overall for U.S. retail foods, and many expect the category to follow the arc of plant-based milks, which now account for 14 percent of all retail milk sales."
https://www.outsideonline.com/2419099/plant-based-fish-seafood-good-catch
15. I kind of feel the same. So much I hate about how poorly run SF is & how it’s become a S--t hole. But if most of VC twitter is running away (but not the startups), it kind of makes me want to stay (or at least keep as my base, I travel so much anyways). Groupthink is dangerous.
"Right now, it seems that not just leaving San Francisco, but kicking it on the way out, has become a bit of a meme. And with all the bizarre propositions on our election ballots, our rabid political ecosystem, our declining quality of life, and the prospects of rising taxes, I can understand the temptation. After all, Texas is not greedy with its taxes. Montana has better mountains. Other places have warmer waters. I could join the exodus. But the contrarian in me says to zig when others zag."
https://om.co/2020/11/24/on-not-leaving-san-francisco/
16. Hope he is right for the economy. Who knows.
"Fritze, an Indianapolis accountant, is among millions of Americans who have squirreled away their money in savings this year as the coronavirus pandemic has put an end to many activities — like going to the gym, restaurants or bars — that were common before the pandemic.
The savings reach $2 trillion, or roughly 10% of the economy. With a successful vaccine, all that money could be steered toward spending, according to economist Ian Shepherdson, ushering in what he calls the "Biden Boom" by the time spring arrives."
17. SPOT ON.
"In the future, those who achieve the greatest results with the least number of employees will be admired above all others; the key statistic to look at is the go-forward net revenues per employee because it best encompasses the company’s leverage. What matters is each employee’s productivity and how the business itself can scale?
The intersection of powerful software tools and cheap capital means that companies can build higher-quality products with fewer people as the capital can go to acquiring the best talent for more experiments. Basically, companies should be spending time on what makes them unique."
https://summation.net/2020/02/11/the-new-status-game-for-companies-fewer-employees/
18. "One thing is for sure, you cannot simply “pause” a major economy like the USA for 9 months or more. Asia has been open for a long period of time and this is causing them to capture more and more market share.
European companies are shutting down (due to COVID restrictions) which means China has to pick up the manufacturing slack… the USA already relies on Chinese manufacturing and the general economy (in Asia) is simply better there due to limited COVID-19 cases. They successfully contained the virus."
"The USA has been the best place on earth to get ahead: opportunities are boundless, limited regulation and a high standard of living. That said, Asia certainly wins in a scenario where the other two major world economies are halted/half-halted while they are not impacted."
https://wallstreetplayboys.com/happy-thanksgiving-some-notes-for-2021-and-qa-announcement/
19. A medley of thoughts from the very thoughtful Ev Williams.
"And I noticed in 2018 or so, with this massive number of companies that were in San Francisco — startups and large public companies and pre IPO companies — that competition for talent had gotten more extreme than it had ever been. So it got me — along with a lot of founders and CEOs — thinking about maybe the advantage of hiring locally and having everybody in the same office [was a pro] that was starting to get outweighed by the cons. . . And, of course, the tools and technology that make remote work possible were getting better all the time."
20. Big exits of startups REALLY matter for supercharging emerging startup ecosystems.
"Careem’s exit generated wealth for many of its employees, co-founders Mudassir Sheikha and Magnus Olsson themselves gained a large infusion of funds and both have become investors. Where the Middle East wealth generation relies mostly on inheritance or family businesses, Careem’s exit demonstrated an alternative way to create value and has inspired many to pursue their own entrepreneurship journey."
"The company served as a fantastic training centre, a place for its workers to develop the skills required to found their own startups – navigating difficult regulations, launching in countries with poor or little infrastructure, flexibility in solving solutions and digitising efforts. Careem’s culture is embedded with innovation and such an environment encourages employees to go out and innovate themselves or do the same for other startups. So far this year 34 new startups have emerged, built by the Careem Mafia, most are focused on the mobility sector, but there several in e-commerce, marketing, fintech and edtech."
https://www.wamda.com/2020/11/glimpse-careem-mafia
21. Totally true.
"I believe one of the biggest luxuries right now is freedom.
Covid-19 lockdowns around the world have taught us how precious freedom is, and how easily simple things like going outside, breathing fresh air, and the ability to travel, can be taken away from us by people who refuse to follow their own rules.
Frankly this was another theme of the Soviet Union—the big bosses had one set of rules for themselves, and the rest of us peasants had another set of rules that we had to follow.
You see this all over the Western world now, with politicians who can’t be bothered to adhere to their own lockdowns, but require everyone else to isolate from friends and family.
It’s easy to be angry about this. But it’s more effective to do something about it.
Unlike expensive luxuries like fancy handbags and supercars, freedom doesn’t require suitcases full of cash. It requires rational thinking, the right information, and the will to take action."
22. Wow this is a baller investment team in gaming here.
“Gaming in the pandemic is very much not an aberration,” Levin said. “It is a reflection of the trajectory the industry was already going. Psychologically and philosophically, it was an eye-opener for much of the world who was not acutely aware of what was happening. It is no longer a luxury for any form of traditional media to understand what’s happening in gaming. It’s a strategic imperative.”
https://venturebeat.com/2020/11/09/griffin-gaming-partners-raises-235-million-to-invest-in-games/
23. Emergence is best of best when it comes to enterprise software investing.
"I do think it’s dangerous to assume that things would have turned out the same if if we had been investors in the company. I believe the kinds of investors you put around the table make a difference in terms of the outcome of your company, so I try to not beat myself up too much on the missed opportunities because maybe they found a better fit or a better investor for them to be successful."
24. This stability & experience of incoming core members of foreign policy is a good thing. The only Trump policy I hope that continues is the containing of China.
“These are all people who are able to step into these jobs and hit the ground running. And that, in itself, is a signal.”
"Introducing his team Tuesday, he (Biden) noted that while they have “unmatched experience and accomplishments, they also reflect the idea that we cannot meet these challenges with old thinking and unchanged habits.”
https://www.vox.com/21594368/joe-biden-blinken-sullivan-haines-foreign-policy-team
25. Bruce Lee. Global icon.
"Today, his DNA still flows through everything, from fashion to dance, film to politics. Like his millions of fans I was captivated and the more I learnt about Lee the more I loved him. He was a passionate champion of equality and believed that martial arts should be open to anyone who wanted to learn.
He understood racism and segregation and knew there was no place for it in martial arts. This philosophy extended outside of the dojo and through his life Lee challenged stereotypes and prejudice. He was a hero onscreen and off, a beacon of hope to so many around the world."
https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/culture/article/bruce-lee
26. Some good stats here. WFA=Work From Anywhere for the lucky tech workers is here to stay.
"Workers now have greater geographic freedom, and appear to be fleeing traditional hubs for smaller markets."
https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/work-from-anywhere/
27. "We are obsessed with unassuming types and rags to riches stories; to getting to peek behind the curtain of the lifestyles of ordinary people who have made it.
Just like YouTube juggernaut Zoella (whose brother and boyfriend also became influencers too), the D'Amelios have mastered keeping fame in the family.
Their new YouTube channel includes a series called Dinner With the D'Amelios. It's the latest brand expansion, and on to another platform, too: "She's been able to take the audience she has away from TikTok and put it onto other places where she can build intellectual property," says Armoo.
Which she'll surely continue to do, in the same vein as her TikTok fame: meteoric, and fast."
28. Huh? Interesting and scary.
"The researchers tracked the risks based on three factors: the first was identifying cities where intense urban life collides with both domesticated animals and rich biodiversity, raising interactions between humans, farmed animals, and wildlife, often due to disruption like deforestation."
https://fortune.com/2020/11/27/megacities-breeding-grounds-covid-pandemic/
29. This is a smart ambitious kid. Short selling is a fascinating space too.
“I’ve always been a big believer that you’ve got to get your face in front of people,” Dorsey says. “Almost everybody has something to teach you. Even if someone isn’t a wildly successful person in their industry, they’ll know something you don’t.”
"He’s already learned enough to carve out a niche for himself in the financial world. At an age when his peers are still learning the ropes, Dorsey is putting out a successful newsletter about a sector of investing that doesn’t get the sustained coverage it arguably should: activist short-selling, betting against a company’s stock while alleging fraud or other problems."
"Dorsey foresees “an explosion” in activist shorting, as technology makes it a simpler strategy for more people to use and a frothy market creates more shorting opportunities to take advantage of. So while he might change course down the line — work at a hedge fund or start his own activist-research outfit — for now, he plans to see how far The Bear Cave can go."
Listen to this Newsletter: https://listencat.com/the-hard-fork-by-marvin-liao-podcast/