Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Dec 5th, 2021
“Winning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing.”--Vince Lombardi
Crazy, crazy story.
"For nearly 30 years, Kearns waged an impossible legal battle against one of America’s most powerful companies. In the end, he won millions of dollars — but it cost him his sanity, his marriage, and the remaining years of his life.
Kearns’ story is remembered as one of history’s great David vs. Goliath lawsuits. But it’s also a reminder of the shortcomings of the US patent system for independent inventors."
https://thehustle.co/windshield-wiper-inventor-robert-kearns
2. "I’ve seen annualized retention rates in PLG businesses range considerably from 50% to upwards of 90%. When retention falls on the lower end of that range, it puts tremendous pressure on a company’s ability to keep accelerating new logo acquisition and to squeeze as much as possible out of the customers who stay.
It’s easy to dismiss churn as a Customer Success problem that just requires additional bodies. Here’s the thing: much of the churn happens within a user’s first 3-6 months (below is a real life example), which means SaaS companies need to get their customers to see value extremely quickly. It can be extremely tough to win a customer over if they stumbled out of the gate."
https://kylepoyar.substack.com/p/how-to-stop-churn
3. "From today’s perspective, it’s hard to imagine that the trade of a lifetime, buying more Amazon stock in the middle of the dot-com bust, was controversial and difficult. Miller admitted “we were clearly wrong in buying when we did,” and averaged down.
He eventually shifted from Amazon stock to the convertible bonds (which also allowed him to realize a tax loss). He remained steadfast in his belief in the company’s future. “Most people try to maximize the number of times they’re right,” he said. “The real question is how much you make when you’re right.”
https://neckar.substack.com/p/bill-miller-an-investors-evolution
4. "His story contains a warning against overconfidence and becoming too concentrated in a bold thematic bet, especially if it has significant downside risk.
His journey is a cautionary tale to never let down your guard, to never believe you’ve figured out the game. The moment of our greatest success can lead us straight into the abyss of defeat.
“I’m much more sensitive to risk and being wrong than I was before,” Miller said “It’s an admission that I didn’t think I could be as catastrophically wrong as I was.”
It’s easy to point out that he drew the wrong historical analogy. But it’s hard to withstand the temptation to find meaning in patterns from the past. It’s always different this time, but we don’t know in which way. And we intuitively look to history for guidance (see also comparisons of 1987 to 1929; and see Paul Tudor Jones and the Japanese bubble for a trader’s perspective on working with analogies).
Miller’s journey shows us the need to become resilient. Structural weaknesses silently compound and become exposed in times of stress.
Miller faced redemptions due to the mutual fund’s daily liquidity provision. He also dealt with divorce, a hostile market, margin debt in his personal account, and public humiliation. I can’t imagine the amount of stress that weighed on him. If the ability to make good decisions and take risk is impaired by poor health, a lack of sleep, anxiety, and depression, how does one make the bets necessary to emerge from the depth of crisis?
In the end, Miller’s journey shows us that comebacks are possible. That there is a life after failure and humiliation."
https://neckar.substack.com/p/bill-millers-journey-part-ii-lessons
5. Cogent discussion on the emerging Covid Omicron variant crisis.
"Basically, the age when we could expect to stop the virus with non-pharmaceutical interventions — lockdowns, social distancing, masks, test-and-trace — is long, long over. Not only has popular appetite for this strategy waned to almost nothing, but new variants are so contagious that these strategies just aren’t sufficient to stamp out the virus.
Every country except China is transitioning to a “live with Covid” strategy (and China is hurting itself by trying to maintain its “zero Covid” policy). So while you should still wear a mask, and while some cities may do some limited business closures, we should assume that distancing measures will not be our first line of defense against Omicron.
Vaccines will be our first line of defense."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-omicron-situation
6. Some good growth ideas here for founders.
https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/turbo-boosts
7. This is a bit dark but forewarned is forearmed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mepBMJNwFqc
8. Always love listening to these shows. Kevin and Tim are always on the cutting edge of tech and biohacking.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OF7XqmNXGLo
9. I'm not an Anti-vaxxer and Covid denier. Covid is dangerous. BUT I don't like the grossly heavy handed and frankly authoritarian steps being taken by most governments across the globe.
Much of this write up rings true & we are seeing civil rights being infringed on everywhere.
https://dossier.substack.com/p/dont-take-the-new-strain-omicron
10. "Neo Medievalism is a modern adaptation of medievalism where non-state organizations or sovereign authorities compete for authority over a group of people. These organizations can implement rules and establish processes on the group that follows them. Sometimes, these rules come into conflict with one another because they come from overlapping authorities.
Overlapping political hierarchy was common in medieval times when the regional feudal nobility, the church, and national level sovereigns were forced to coexist. Each organization had rules and authority over their constituencies. Sometimes the church was in conflict with the nobility or a sovereign over the control of the people. In some cases, this conflict of authority led to the fragmentation of power.
This concept of overlapping authority and struggle for power is common in the digital age.
Simply put, governments will start competing with each other to win over the loyalties of these new groups of people. They’ll target policies that cater to these new buckets of motivations. And through this fragmentation process, The Sovereign Individual will emerge as the primary beneficiary.
Digital jobs typically earn more than enough to service basic, lower order needs. Ie: if you earn money online, the chances you’ll go hungry are minimal. Because of this, a digital worker’s focus shifts to higher order motivations.
And digital incomes are on the rise everywhere. Especially within traditional communities filled with location-dependent workers surviving paycheck-to-paycheck. When you rely on community dependent income streams, lower order needs aren’t always a guarantee.
A location independent social class that is willing to exploit the location and policy based arbitrage opportunities that present themselves in a dislocated and competitive environment. This is jurisdictional arbitrage."
https://dougantin.com/neo-medievalism-and-the-sovereign-individual-age/
11. This is a great newbie guide to crypto. Worth a read or bookmark at least.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/crypto-nft-twitter-discord-guide.html
12. Lots to absorb here. Some good insights for the future: relocation of the professional classes & how this affects major cities in the USA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zX5qi_dqvQc
13. The End of Dogma. Worthwhile talk regardless of how you feel about Peter Thiel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggp-e6qBxSM
14. This move actually kind of makes alot of sense. Focus is always good.
https://techcrunch.com/2021/12/03/pinduoduo-puts-profit-into-agriculture/
15. I need to watch this.
16. "There are no certainties. All you can do is set yourself up for positive expected value outcomes - make good bets over a long period of time. Make calculated risks, minimize variance, use the best information you have, and understand all the potential outcomes."
https://kyla.substack.com/p/the-federal-reserves-wager
17. Actually hate them both: ad agencies and management consultants suck.
The question is which one is more useless faster in the long run. (ad agencies in my view).
https://sparrowone.substack.com/p/why-management-consultancies-are
18. This is a pretty awful but important historical figure. Tamerlane, literally the "lord of destruction" responsible for killing 5% of the world’s population in the 14th century.
https://historyofyesterday.com/tamerlane-388241acc894
19. Good thesis for a VC fund. Focus on Canadian diaspora startup founders.
20. Good overview of latest VC news. Also some crazy numbers on the extreme expansion of seed stage market.
https://thatwastheweek.com/2021/12/04/seed-the-best-of-times-the-worst-of-times
21. Great discussion on the pros and cons of Angellist VC Rolling Funds. I've been doing this for the last 3 month at Diaspora.vc & its been pretty good so far!