Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Feb 5th, 2023
“No matter how hard the past is, you can always begin again.” – Buddha
Pretty insightful discussion on VC investing over 25 years. Lots of learnings from investing through cycles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7cYktHhp0E
2. "In the 1990s, the sociologist Andre Gorz argued that most people live in what he called “wage-based societies.” What determined membership in such a society was participation in formal work. Put more simply, to be a good person, thou shall be employed. This was undoubtedly a hidden force that held the ideas in Ferriss’s book from reaching mass adoption.
But for the first time, the conventional thinking that it is taboo to question these 20th-century scripts is starting to evaporate.
Once I realized I was trying to escape work, I leaned in a different direction. I embraced a principle I now call “design for liking work.” The reality is that most people want to be useful, and that means some form of work in people’s lives.
With patience and a willingness to feel lost and take it slow, over the last few years, I started to find a better relationship with work. Inspired by ideas from internet writers, poets, books on spirituality and religion, my own writing, self-experiments, and those conversations with internet friends from around the world, I’ve been able to build a life I am excited to keep living."
https://every.to/p/the-great-contemplation
3. "Investors’ sentiment has now shifted towards looking for a faster path to profitability as sustainability is now the name of the game (don’t die)."
https://iterativeventure.substack.com/p/how-to-do-it-fundraising-in-2023
4. "We aren’t going to shrink our way out of climate change, income inequality, or any crisis. The solution is more. Specifically, more people who generate ideas that make the world more productive — ideas that let us do more with less. Stanford economist Charles Jones has shown that what generates prosperity is, ultimately, ideas — and ideas are the product of brains. More brains, more ideas.
However, we’re in danger of running out of ideas because, well … we’re running out of people."
https://www.profgalloway.com/more-babies
5. "So, is U.S. hegemony eternal? Of course not. But, if U.S. hegemony is required for the existence of globalization, what happens when U.S. hegemonic power begins to fade? It means we’re witnessing the death throes of globalization.
Here's the thing: the end of American hegemony doesn't mean the end of American preeminence. The international system is in the process of transitioning from a hegemonic, imperial structure to a multipolar system where the U.S. remains the Principate, that is the first among equals. America may face challenges from up-and-coming power such as China, but its position on the North American continent provides incomparable opportunities.
The domestic cultural, economic, and political dynamics of the U.S. have international consequences. Rising social discord, both present and future, will hamstring America's ability to project power abroad. For this reason alone, the era of hegemony is coming to an end."
https://shatterpointgeopolitics.substack.com/p/hegemony-is-globalizations-lifeblood
6. "But there is a deep irony to America's schizophrenic foreign policy: America has been so successful in achieving its core geopolitical objectives that it can afford to act like a drunken sailor on the world stage.
Think about that. American power is so overwhelming that it can suffer foreign-policy blunders without significant consequences to its status as the world's sole superpower. That's not to say these setbacks don't add up over time. Certainly, America's relative power compared to the rest the world is diminishing at an alarming rate.
Nevertheless, despite the missteps of the past few decades, America remains humanity's preeminent power."
https://shatterpointgeopolitics.substack.com/p/american-foreign-policy-interests
7. Good geopolitical overview and a case for a bright future for Brazil.
https://www.thelykeion.com/geopolitical-campaigns-and-why-we-still-like-brazil
8. Still, it’s about time we start to see some VC money here. Defense is true ESG as Ukraine has shown us.
"Even if VCs are getting more comfortable backing dual-use companies, the traditional 10-year VC fund cycle is often too short a timeframe for a defence startup to successfully commercialise its tech and exit."
https://sifted.eu/articles/vc-investments-in-defence-startups
9. The USA is behind the curve here. We need to ramp up our defense industrial base ASAP as we are already in a Gray war with China. Peace through strength.
"The U.S. defense-industrial base is not ready for a battle over Taiwan, as it would run out of key long-range, precision-guided munitions in less than one week, according to a new report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies."
10. "Given all these challenges, what are the odds for the world to achieve the rapid, massive and unprecedented increase in the production of copper that is required to make current plans feasible?
You be the judge.
The most likely outcome seems to be that we will see a mixture of these potential scenarios. We are unlikely to see the kind of copper shortage that predictions based on current demand estimates and current technologies foresee, nor will we see a quick, smooth path towards new technologies and commodities replacing copper. The chips usually fall somewhere in the middle between such extremes.
There'll probably be enough of a shortfall to exert upward
pressure on copper prices for at least a good number of years.
In which case, copper-related assets are an investment you should look at."
https://www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispatches/copper-a-looming-shortage
11. When do financial sanctions work or not? An important tool of geopolitics highly relevant to today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GqJOQT1P-7I
12. "So in conclusion, I think those in the West calling for restraint in arming Ukraine with the armaments to win this war because of concern how defeat would go down in Russia, and what this could all mean for stability in Russia, are either plain wrong or just agents of Russian influence.
We should not change our actions from what is in our interest, because of worries about hypothetical outcomes in Russia - which in the end have as good a chance of being positive as negative.
We should focus on what is in our best interests, and defending Ukraine, and the West through our support for Ukraine is now absolutely in our best interest. And if Ukraine defeats Russia, as I think it will, and Putin falls from power as one of the consequences of his actions, I think that is a positive for the West."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/dont-worry-about-a-russian-defeat
13. These folks are the best. Random but I admire skill in whatever people do.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBTYRrsUWgA
14. "Yes, Japan faces a tremendous re-allocation challenge. The gap between high-performers and low-performers will probably rise. Japan will give up a little bit of the “good” outlined in the previous post to my Davos-bound friend to correct the “bad” outlined to my concerned technocrat friend in this one.
I remain a Japan optimist because I trust entrepreneurs and next-generation business leaders will work hard to correct the bad while the technocrats will keep working overtime to preserve the good."
https://japanoptimist.substack.com/p/japan-reality-check-3-what-is-japans
15. "Well, you say, who would want to listen to my kitchen conversation? Well, I say, if you are an accountant, a lawyer, a banker, an investment banker, or a fund manager, you probably have exactly the sort of information about the deals that matter most.
Or, let’s say you work for a security firm, and someone wants to know the movements of who or what you are guarding. Or, perhaps, you work in a mining company, and someone wants to know about your geologist’s reports.
The list is endless. If a state wants to outbid competitors for a port in Africa for an agribusiness in Latin America, the people with the greatest insight are the target. That’s not the government officials. That’s the people working on the deal.
The bottom line is this. It’s not just Google and Apple, and Facebook who want your data so they can make a fortune from it. The fridge has become the place where state intelligence apparatus, organized crime, and hackers converge on you. Welcome to the new Cold War. It’s in your fridge. Oh, and now the following electronics, among many others, also track, record, film, and reveal what’s going on in your life:
--Rubbish bins
--Lights
--Home Connectivity
--TV Screens"
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/the-new-cold-war-its-in-your-fridge
16. This is a cogent discussion on how to invest in an emerging multipolar world and stupid ideology driven economics ie. ESG.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkMqNa8uK1c
17. Poland is becoming a major player in the defense industry. Also a major player geopolitically in Europe. Period.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-covert-polish-repair-shop-patching-up-ukrainian-arms-11674920742
18. Always lots of nuggets of insight from Luke Belmar. He is a very smart dude. Learn to level up all aspects of your life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpVWOkX0ltg
19. Semiconductors are the new spice. This is a signal of the changing nature of the global economy and deglobalization.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFCJoq9iaik&list=RDCMUCsy9I56PY3IngCf_VGjunMQ&start_radio=1
20. "But now in 2023, there’s lower opportunity costs to leaving/starting something new when your public company RSUs or growth stage options are blown up. Conversely, your prospects are much worse in the event that you can’t raise or the company doesn’t work out after you do.
This means that right now, the opportunity cost for pursuing a good idea is very low and the consequences of failing with a bad one are very high.
So it’s an amazing time to be a founder for the right business with the right characteristics. It’s a terrible time to start speculative businesses, bank shots/double back flips, or anything that needs capital as a differentiator. But for things that score well on capital efficiency, path to revenue, value proposition, etc., it’s an incredible moment to bet the farm and start a company.
The trick is telling them apart.
That requires extra work upfront to gather signals and data. Make this investment like any other: through rigor and due diligence. Take more time and do more work to determine if you have a winner (remember, the signal will be harder to come by but more meaningful if you do) and then hunt it down.
When bullets are more expensive, make sure you’ve got an elk and not a squirrel before you fire one. Seek out folks who can help you spot the difference."
https://subscriptions.theinformation.com/newsletters/slow-snail-mail/archive/the-best-time-to-build
21. Impressive vc fund here. So many great investors here in SV.
https://techcrunch.com/2023/01/25/kearny-jackson-sriram-krishnan-sunil-chhaya
22. "Every day we see signs in the press of ancient empires springing back to life."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/the-empire-strikes-back
23. Talk about patience here. Guess they know about historical cycles and human tendencies.
"OIP built up a huge private arsenal, banking on there one day being demand for the weapons again"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/31/ukraine-europe-tanks-belgian-buyer-oip
24. China's CCP ham handedness is buying the West time. Let's not squander it.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/asia/china-indo-pacific-folly
25. "Simply disbelieving the lies of our overlords is insufficient. To be useful in the rebellion, the smart dissident must take care of your own health and well-being. Rid yourself of self-destructive habits like porn, overeating, overindulgence of alcohol/drugs, or excessive social-media consumption.
Discipline yourself to eat clean, and commit to daily bodyweight calisthenics - push-ups and squats are inexpensive ways to harden your body, and a man who pushes himself to his limit every day will over time accumulate a massive advantage over our soy-swilling, internet-addicted, porn guzzling foes.
Learn to be cunning and hide your power level, while quietly identifying other allies in your neighborhood. Online friendly partisans are fine - but true friendships come from building real relationships with capable dissident men who live within your neighborhoods and willing to defend each others’ homes in emergencies.
Level yourself up for what is to come."
https://kaichang.substack.com/p/the-dissidents-handbook
26. Badasses from history.
"These men lived different lives, were born in different times and fought under different banners. But they all had one thing in common. When the time finally came, they all knew how to die with dignity. Decades of war experience prepared them for that moment."
https://aristocraticfury.substack.com/p/veteran-warriors-who-died-fighting
27. "You are betting on Google failing. If you think that isn’t a great decision on day one, then feel free to read on for why we think this is the case.
Open AI: We agree with a lot of the proof points from BowTiedSystems, if you can use it to improve sales letters and solve other complex problems it certainly has a use case. The problem to us is really this “who owns the best data”. There are really only a few companies that own the most data: 1) China, 2) Google, 3) Apple and 4) perhaps - Microsoft/Amazon
OpenAI Is effectively trying to create a new massive search system. We really doubt that Google is simply going to sit back and give up all of its market share. Google spends ungodly amounts of money making sure it is #1 in search and they do their best to expand the definition of search to newspapers and other old delivery systems to try and claim they are not a monopoly (they are pretty much a monopoly on internet search in our opinion)"
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/chatgpt-potential-issues-you-are
28. Wow, this movie looks good. But also makes me angry and sad for all the Afghans the USA abandoned to the F--ing Taliban......
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02PPMPArNEQ
29. Learning from fellow dotcom bust survivors. 2001 just sucked beyond anything I've ever experienced.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oukr4t4h8mo
30. Controversial to say the least. But a good macro view.
He has a big media following and has leveraged this to clean up investment-wise in last decade from SPACs (at the expense of the sheeple who followed him).
Lesson to learn here: watch what people do, not what they say. Caveat emptor as always.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJXRg8xbEqo
31. More Zeihan geopolitical discussions. Jordan Harbinger is a great interviewer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uS4Vw6cuW4M
32. Excellent episode. I agree with them that it's gonna get even more ugly in Silicon Valley.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ymo6Yzjv_KY
33. Important thread & explanation on the upcoming blood bath in Silicon Valley (it’s already ugly right now)