The Dangerous Power of Myths & Narratives: Don’t Overestimate Your Competition

I track the heinous Russian invasion of Ukraine very closely. And from day one, we have for the most part seen the Russian armed forces getting crushed. Underperforming in leadership, in logistics and in combined arms tactics. All the things we would expect in a well run modern military. 

Yet before the invasion, everyone in the world was convinced the Russian army was an unstoppable horde that was going to overrun Ukraine in a matter of days. Of course Russia, being a top 3 military, was going to crush the Ukrainian military, considered by many experts to be 2nd rate and substantially weaker. 

All the experts were thankfully wrong, as they underestimated the growing professionalism and morale of the Ukrainian armed forces. And these same experts, dramatically overestimated that of the Russians. But this bias has affected our policy of support and driven a lot of fear across the Western capitals and by media pundits. All this came from dangerous myths around the invincibility of Russian armed forces. 

Reminds me of a story of old Russian tsar Ivan the Terrible & his Oprichniki personal guard.

Well armed, with the best technology and weapons, they terrorized the Russian nobles and peasants who despite outnumbering them by magnitudes. These masses never fought back because of the myths of superiority and fears propagated by the orthodoxy. Basically, they bought into the Oprichniki belief of superiority and toughness.

But when the Oprichniki faced the Mongol Crimean Golden Horde in war, they were absolutely destroyed, despite outgunning the tartars, who were only armed with bows and arrows. 

“Kinetically speaking they had overwhelming superiority. Guns, cannons, much heavier armor or weaponry. Their defense and firepower was very much stronger. But they were routed in one day simply by arrows. Because they were used to fight people whose myth prohibited to resist them.

Within the Muscovite mythology Oprichniks were invincible untouchable  demigods, as hands of Orthodox Tsar, who's kinda living God. But when facing foreign enemy they left this mythological space. And entered a new space where they are just people and can get arrow in the face.

They were not used to getting arrows in the face. The very realisation they are not demigods but mortals shocked them. They ran away dropping their armor, guns and cannons. Moscow was burnt to the ground despite having total "kinetic" and technological superiority” 

(Source: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1498076089842761731)

It was because the warriors of the Golden Horde did not know the myths of the black guard and just fought with the ferocity they normally fought with. They had high morale and were not cowed, so they won. 

It’s the same way of the new kid coming to a new school, who ends up beating up the bully who has never been challenged before by the previous kids. Everyone previously was so cowed by his reputation they never fought back. But once the mystique was broken, the bully loses all his power.

Check out what happened to Mike Tyson.  Considered by many to be the “Baddest man on the planet” and dominant in the 1980s. But as his personal life dissolved, he stopped training and rested on laurels. Then he met Buster Douglas in 1990 where he was beaten in an upset. My recollection back then was that he never fully recovered from this.  

The lesson for all of us is that overestimating our competitors and opponents can just be as dangerous as underestimating them. 

I think about the common but awful question that investors ask startup founders: “What happens if Google/Facebook/Microsoft/Amazon/Apple comes into this space?” 

The reality is that these are big massive companies that are bureaucratic, risk averse and unable to act quickly or even stick with things long enough to make it really work when it gets hard. The project which is small in the bigger scheme of things of their organization and thus not a priority in most cases. 

So it can be much easier than you think to overtake them with your own focus, hardwork and commitment. Basically, don’t be intimidated too much and definitely don’t buy into their myth of invincibility. Have respect for your competitors but trust in your own abilities and be decisive. Do this and you will overcome and win!