Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads February 9th, 2025
"Let us love winter, for it is the spring of genius."- Pietro Aretino
"AI is a collection of technologies, it isn’t just one thing, and that can make it confusing to discuss AI.
AI is causing major market dislocations. OpenAI could be to some new company what Myspace was to Facebook.
AI is moving away from SaaS metrics. Many investors have begun writing about this but, we are seeing more per-unit-of-work pricing, or similar models, not as much per-seat-per-month. When revenue isn’t a recurring flat fee, it does fit mental models of investing if you are comparing it to SaaS.
AI changes corporate strategy. Data is now a more important asset than ever before. Labeling data may be a workflow you need. Value chains are being re-shaped by AI.
AI companies can scale faster, with fewer employees
AI may not have the zero marginal cost we are used to in tech. With the rise of test-time compute and other inference related costs, marginal costs could be more variable and use case driven."
https://investinginai.substack.com/p/the-six-mental-models-for-ai-investing
2. "First, we should expect the price of attention to continue to rise. In a world of rising noise — with far more products, services, bots, and content than humans to consume them — we should expect the price of attention to continue to rise, and only be limited by the lowest sustainable margins of those that need to purchase it.
Second, we should mark up the value of the attention we already have. It is obvious that one’s existing customers are their most valuable customers. But have you increasedthe value you ascribe to them? The data above suggests one’s cost to re-acquire them has gone up 2-3x over the past five years.
Third, we should expect the value of curation to rise. In a world of infinite options, sometimes the only way to find a good solution is to search in a limited field. Using the internet to find a good restaurant in a city is much harder than asking a trusted friend who lives there. So, too, with just about everything. Curators will increasingly direct attention."
https://phronesisfund.substack.com/p/the-price-of-attention
3. "The vibe shift we’re seeing now taps into a deeper framework that I’ve written about often; I mean the creatures and machines framework. An epic clash is coming. It’s between those, on the one hand, who want to accelerate the ongoing technology revolution, and those who want to slam on the brakes.
The accelerationist ultras want new technologies to remodel the world around us and even, in the end, we humans ourselves; according to them it is our destiny is to merge with the machines. Meanwhile, the decelerationists say we must protect ourselves against the rabid form of technological modernity we have created; one that wants to eat everything familiar about human modes of living and being.
I believe that soon enough that conflict will be at the heart of our politics. What’s happening with Musk and Trump is only the first act in a much longer play."
https://www.newworldsamehumans.xyz/p/is-this-really-happening
4. "The railroad and the internet bubble capital formation had multiple aspects. This current capital cycle also has a few specific capital formation buckets. I can define them simplistically as Compute and Networking, Power, and Data Centers. It’s funny how that echoes the past because Railroads were Railroads and Land, and the Internet was the Internet and Telecom.
In the case of AI, I think it will be power and datacenters that will be the real overbuilder. This overbuilding will worsen because there’s a significant lag between the two markets. The compute and networking cycle is much more responsive, so I think the demand lead time to supply response is a ~12-month response.
The problem is that power and data centers have a much slower reaction cycle. A datacenter takes months to years, and power takes years to add supply. The biggest opportunity is reshuffling power budgets because power will limit compute and networking this year. The datacenter and power part of the equation only really started to react to the market this past year (2024), and I think that is likely an indication that we will have some time before the capital cycle turns.
But let’s use traditional semiconductor cycle logic. In this case, datacenter power is the golden screw. This is the critical piece that prevents the entire solution from being delivered, and since it’s the bottleneck, the heaviest overordering and lead times likely happen there."
https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/capital-cycles-and-ai
5. This is such a fun tour of Chongqing, China. One of the must see cities in the world (assuming you are allowed to go to China).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5PgqFybk0Y
6. The most important banker in America and arguably the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2REdbQasKX4
7. Such an impressive city here. Chongqing. Really blown away by the place & its the 7th video I've watched of this place. I will visit one day.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbnSuon2nrI
8. TIP (Turkistan Islamic Party) of Uyghurs, war vets in Syria coming for China (understandably too).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DRzaZiI8_Q
9. "But as Bench’s situation got more dire the National Bank of Canada, which had taken over a considerably expanded credit facility, declined to make concessions to the company even though executives and the board were in the middle of trying to sell the company. Bench worried that the bank’s stance would mean it wouldn’t be able to make payroll. (Board members can be held personally liable if employees aren’t paid.)
On December 27, 2024, Bench told its roughly 12,000 customers, without any advance notice, that the business was shuttering, leaving them without a bookkeeper. More than 450 Bench employees lost their jobs.
That same day, Crosby took to X and LinkedIn to share his story.
Ironically, his post — or the angry posts from customers — may have helped
Bench to find a buyer. The publicity attracted a number of potential acquirers.
Bench’s board, led by Hinkfuss, pushed to get a deal done.
Finally, Employer. com agreed to take over Bench’s business, onboarding customer accounts and hiring some of the company’s employees.
Investors will never recoup anywhere close to the more than $100 million Bench raised in equity and debt in its lifetime.
According to a bankruptcy filing for 10Sheet Services Inc., Bench’s corporate entity, the company filed for bankruptcy with $550,000 cash on hand and $48 million in total liabilities.
Sources tell me Employer. com is paying just over $13 million to buy what remains of Bench."
https://www.newcomer.co/p/the-limits-of-founder-friendly-what
10. An alternative perspective on geopolitics, a bit too tin foil hat for me but good to look at contrarian views.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvLjdIwRBtI
11. "These institutions - financial, judicial, educational, religious, cultural - were designed to serve a nation whose people grew up believing in their value. The last High saw value in capitalism at all costs and controlling culture to avoid decadence and "incorrect" thought. It was racist, sexist, and classist but, in the end, it gave us the highway system, strong unions, and the Internet. Besides that, I ask you, what have the Romans ever given us?
What is happening now, then, is that the last beneficiaries of the last High - the people who have completely hijacked old media, old economics, and the old ideas of rule of law - are exposing the seismic cracks in the system. The rich have abandoned those they once sought to "serve" through charitable organizations, and the tech nerds are looking around and saying that Mars and Bitcoin would be a lot cooler right about now.
My friend Dave Troy sees all of this as a plot to destabilize Western democracies and help bring about the rise of China, Russia, and India as de facto global powers. He's probably right, but I would also argue that the Strauss-Howe theory is simply expanding its borders to the rest of the world. That said, we are absolutely seeing a group of technocrats and techno-utopianists who are taking advantage of massive unrest and uncertainty to make unfathomably large sums of money."
https://keepgoingpod.com/p/everything-is-broken-right-on-schedule
12. Chengdu. 4th largest city in China and it's very impressive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mUbizFj0eFg
13. These cityscapes blow me away. SO impressive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qkdrog96gkg
14. "But let me put it this way: As the world improves, our threshold for complaining drops.
In the absence of big problems, people shift their worries to smaller ones. In the absence of small problems, they focus on petty or even imaginary ones.
Most people – and definitely society as a whole – seem to have a minimum level of stress. They will never be fully at ease because after solving every problem the gaze of their anxiety shifts to the next problem, no matter how trivial it is relative to previous ones.
Free from stressing about where their next meal will come from, worry shifts to, say, a politician being rude. Relieved of the trauma of war, stress shifts to whether someone’s language is offensive, or whether the stock market is overvalued."
https://collabfund.com/blog/minimum-levels-of-stress/
15. Very good discussion on Re-industrialization of America and politics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DaF4M6mrFNE
16. Great debate on manufacturing and industrial policy between economists.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1H8jweWyUb0
17. "The evolution of media, with the rise of the creator economy and concepts like Kevin Kelly’s "1,000 True Fans”, has brought to the mainstream an understanding that hyper-personalization of almost anything is possible.
Whatever interest you may have, there are almost certain to be others online with that exact same interest. Given that we’ve embraced this in so many aspects of our lives, it makes perfect sense that founders are taking advantage of this concept in how they think about community.
The best founders are no longer content with founder communities where the only thing they have in common is the city they live in.
The best founders aren’t even content to be part of generalist sub-communities within their geography (e.g. local CTO meetups).
Instead, the best founders today are actively seeking out other founders who are just like them, regardless of where in the world they might be.
They’re seeking communities of founders who are specifically building B2B infrastructure software targeting mid-market companies in regulated industries.
They’re seeking communities of founders who are specifically building PLG-driven open source projects targeting Node.js developers. And so on.
And they’re finding them."
https://chrisneumann.com/archives/where-are-the-builders
18. "That said, Eddie gives us one useful piece of advice: Make the hard work as easy as possible.
“I always think, how can I build my life around whatever challenge I’m taking on, or goal I’ve set myself. Sure, it’s a bit of commitment, but it’s a commitment to making my life easier. Whenever I take on a challenge, there are always tough moments and plenty of hard work. But I always say, make the hard work as easy as possible.”
Pick what your main goal is and build your life around it. Try to make the job as easy as possible."
https://lifemathmoney.com/make-the-hard-work-as-easy-as-possible-eddie-halls-strongest-advice/
19. "There is only one chart that is dictating financial markets right now. You can watch it exclusively and essentially tell where markets are headed for the next week or two.
Global liquidity.
It really is that simple. Stanley Druckenmiller famously said “it’s liquidity that moves the market.” He is the GOAT for a reason."
https://pomp.substack.com/p/the-most-important-data-point-for
20. Strong case for the Israeli tech startup ecosystem even now.
https://startupstechvc.beehiiv.com/p/why-now-is-the-best-time-to-invest-in-israel
21. Net net: the CCP cannot be trusted.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5V4s89Eo4qg
22. "Just like in the Middle East, Ukraine and elsewhere, what we'll witness is another front in the struggle between two systems of governance. In that sense, the geopolitical conflicts around the world will likely be subordinated to the civil war shaping up in the United States, which could prove the central battle in the whole conflict. That civil war might not resemble the civil wars of the past with large armies fighting one another in fields and insurrections in cities. Instead, we'll likely see chaos, sabotage, assassinations and terrorism in the U.S. - but also in Europe and the U.K."
https://alexkrainer.substack.com/p/next-week-start-the-days-of-thunder
23. Good commentary and takes on what is going on tech and business culture now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRwx8_lcMzs
24. "But it basically all boils down to asymmetrically bad upside in hard truth telling.
Every company can either be a good reference or a bad reference, regardless of the ultimate outcome. So in an iterative game things very quickly become an exercise in long term reputation management rather than maximizing the value of a specific investment/business.
After all, the less a business is working, the less incentive you have to tell them the truth (the salvage value is going down). But the more it's working, the fewer hard truths you have to tell (and the less you want to be naysayer).
These strong disincentives for honesty are why most VCs are so profoundly useless to the companies they back."
https://99d.substack.com/p/the-hard-thing-about-hard-truths
25. Trump 2.0 with NATO.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pCXm0vpMaTE
26. "Biden here, probably unknowingly, brings up an important point: this is what’s called intra-elite conflict. This where the elites of a country factionalize into elites and counter-elites. There are two competing visions for the future of a country, and there is a zero-sum outcome, so if one faction of elites win, the other faction will necessarily lose. And this is important because historically, these intra-elite conflicts precede periods of state breakdown and civil war.
I’m not predicting that a civil war will happen. It’s a distinct possibility, and the more you read about the history of these conflicts, I think the more you will see that the United States is going down the same path as some of these revolutions and civil wars. And I know it’s popular to poo poo the concept of a civil war, but anyone who can dismiss the possibility outright should read more history because the similarities are shocking."
https://grayzoneresearch.substack.com/p/biden-foreshadows-us-intra-elite
27. “The age of chivalry is gone. That of sophisters, economists, and calculators has succeeded.” His line hits hard. Modern life shifts the emphasis from the nobility of the chivalric ideal to a much more small-souled concern with getting ahead. Dave Ramsey might be a really nice guy who has helped a lot of people (while also doing some damage, if I’m correct) but anyone who has built an empire on coin-counting is without a doubt an economist and a calculator. This is why I don’t join in the praise of him.
And Tate, despite being a delinquent or worse, captures a certain boldness that modern life aims to destroy in young men—with democratic propaganda, prescription medication, and a million other things. This boldness is dangerous, not just to the Regime but to everyone. You only look at Tate himself to see the downsides. But chivalry demands boldness, especially in deranged and confused times of crisis (like ours) when the action required by the moment might make a lot of people uncomfortable. There is no easy way out of the messes we have made."
https://thechivalryguild.substack.com/p/ramsey-and-tate
28. "But there's a simpler path to growing faster. A path most companies haven't explored nearly enough. Want to know what it is?
Most of you could be growing faster if you just got clearer:
...About what you do.
...About how it works.
...About why it's valuable.
...About what people use before / instead of you.
...About how you save customers time / money.
...About what triggers people to buy what you sell.
...And about what life is like with + without you.
90%+ of companies out there haven’t done this work."
https://hellooperator.substack.com/p/clarity-as-strategy
29. Columbus, Ohio for the win. #Reindustrialize
https://trailruncapital.substack.com/p/columbus-ohio
30. "So, American criminals, even low-level criminals like drug dealers, are adapting to the changing American environment. Namely, as anarchotyranny has empowered them, they are getting organized, as shown by the drug dealer having a signal jammer and fake badge. Further, in getting organized and using new technology, they are mimicking the South African farm attackers who have caused so much chaos and suffering within South Africa.
That increasing level of organization and preparation amongst America’s criminal underclass is critical for law-abiding Americans of all sorts to understand because it shows things have changed and that we are headed in a much more dangerous direction."
https://www.theamericantribune.news/p/the-south-african-crystal-ball-signal
31. "A better definition: Love is giving witness to someone’s life. To notice them and their lived experience. My friend Rabbi Steve Leder said something that hit hard this week. Calling people and asking if you can help (what I was doing) is the wrong thing to do. The right thing? Just help. Pick up their dogs, drop off food, send a photo of the room in your house they can stay in, wire them cash. Don’t ask, do. Are there people in LA you love? Then give witness to their life, notice what would help. Don’t ask, just give witness, notice, and love them."
https://www.profgalloway.com/after-the-fires/
32. Geopolitical recession is a good description of where we are at right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIaenz_ZQik
33. Probably good to know these next few years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9JQLaf4QaOs
34. Good strong case for Crypto. Global macro at its finest. Always an interesting take. Not investing advice though.