Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads June 4th, 2023
“A man's worth is no greater than the worth of his ambitions.” – Marcus Aurelius.
Great profile on my friend and fellow investor Sheel. Probably one of the best seed stage Fintech investors on the planet.
https://meridian.mercury.com/sheel-mohnot
2. My favorite new influencer. Justin Waller. He is absolutely right that the trades and blue collar are coming back.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6WS3Uzx0uE
3. "While it is undeniable that demographics are one of the most profound constraints that influences geopolitics, demographics are not destiny. If demographics were all that mattered to great power politics, then the ancient Greek city states would not have stood a chance against the collective might of the Persian Empire which ruled over 44% of humanity at the time. History is rife with examples of how the demographic underdog, through superior tactics, technology, and morale, can decisively beat geopolitical rivals.
However, demographics are not destiny because power on the world stage is relative.A nation with a rapidly shrinking demography may experience a subsequent hit to its absolute power, but this is irrelevant if its peer rivals suffer from even worse demographic crises.
If a power controls the key nodes of global commerce and manages to monopolize the extraction of vital raw materials, it might be able to fortify, and even enhance, its geopolitical position despite sub-optimal demographics.
This is why the growing coordination between Russia, China, and Iran across Eurasia is a trend to carefully watch. U.S. power is no longer omnipotent, and the U.S. is struggling to shift its strategy from counterinsurgency back to traditional great power competition. There is a window for revisionist nations to make power plays.
That is not to say the moves will be successful. That remains to be seen. After all, the U.S. and other nations across Eurasia also have hands with which to play the game of great power politics. What's important to realize is these things take time, and only time will truly reveal what lies ahead."
https://www.shatterpointsgeopolitics.com/p/are-demographics-destiny
4. "Startups are hard. Doing it part-time makes it 10x harder. If possible, figure out a path to being full-time as quick as possible and improve the chance of success."
https://davidcummings.org/2023/05/26/side-hustle-to-full-hustle/
5. "And this is why I’m so bullish on doing things like living in another country. Not a vacation. Not a “trip".” Just going somewhere to live. It doesn’t matter if you do it later in life or fit in into your 30s like I did. It’s a way of tapping into a deeper and more relaxed state of being that many of us never have time to experience.
You might wander around as I did for a few weeks and notice that the thoughts from back home start to dissolve. For the first time, you will experience a state which feels calm and peaceful. You will walk into a grocery store and be amazed at all the new fruits you’ve never seen. You will start to become curious about the world. You might even spontaneously start crying in a park that has trees from all over the world because you are filled with love and joy."
https://boundless.substack.com/p/go-wander-abroad-ideally-224
6. "Like any asset, sports teams trade on supply and demand, and demand is a function of the number of uber-wealthy people desperate for relevance. A sports franchise is the most conspicuous consumption imaginable. A nice car and a house mean you’re prosperous. A plane makes you interesting. Owning a sports team cements you as fucking fascinating.
Just as crypto and SPACs, for a short time, were driven by Greater Fool Theory, sports teams are driven by Greater Fear of Death Theory. A Lamborghini impresses the valet; a sports team impresses Kim. And there are a lot of wealthy men arriving at the realization that biology is unimpressed by their money. So they spend it on their last meal of sorts: a sports team."
https://www.profgalloway.com/goals/
7. "The free world depends on U.S. leadership—as it has since the end of World War II. But Mr. Kissinger is worried. “We have no grand strategic view,” he says of the U.S. “So every strategic decision has to be wrested out of a body politic that does not organically think in these categories.” When the U.S. does adopt a strategy, it has a tendency to “go into it on the basis of overreaching moral principles, which we then apply to every country in the world with equal validity.”
America has its strengths. When challenged, “the mobilization of resources to resist the challenge is comparatively easy.” But threats are “interpreted in terms of physical conflict. So until such conflict approaches, it’s harder to mobilize. And so to act on the basis of assessment and conjecture is harder in America than in comparable countries.
Mr. Kissinger leaves no doubt that he believes in a Pax Americana and in the need “to defend the areas of the world essential for American and democratic survival.” But the ability to “execute it politically,” he says, “has declined sharply, and that is our overriding problem now.”
8. This was a good interview. Lots of stuff going on in the MENA region.
Wish more Americans travelled, we can learn alot from what the UAE gov't is doing to make themselves competitive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QtFFgPcNjoc&t=2014s
9. "In the past, we’ve had two catalysts that tend to produce the opportunity to create new consumer startups at scale.
One was the emergence of a new platform, like smartphones or social media, that brought new capabilities to market and allowed entrepreneurs to either create net-new experiences or create experiences optimized for those platforms.
The second catalyst has been the emergence of newer behaviors, including one-to-many social audio, creating and consuming short-form video on mobile devices, and augmented reality experiences on mobile phones. Sometimes these new platforms come with new distribution channels that can turbocharge growth, which makes the platforms even more attractive.
Right now, it doesn’t feel like we have a large-scale new platform or enduring emergent behavior that can provide a tailwind for a new consumer company."
https://chudson.substack.com/p/will-we-ever-see-another-renaissance
10. "Some people will try to embrace this new technology and others will run in fear. History suggests that embracing the technology will be the right move, but it still makes people uncomfortable because of the uncertainty involved.
Maybe humans augmented with a computer in their brain can change things though.
Artificial intelligence is a data game. The more access to data, supposedly the better the outcomes you will get. One of the most unique data sets in the world is the information that is stored in our brains. It is nearly impossible to copy that database. You would have a hard time porting that information from one human brain to another.
But imagine overlaying the human brain with artificial intelligence — the possibilities are endless."
https://pomp.substack.com/p/elon-musk-and-the-intelligence-arms
11. Lots of entrepreneurial wisdom here. Worth reading the whole thing.
"I’ve worked with smart, well-known people who turned out to be low integrity people.
And I kinda knew it from the beginning but I forgave them because I was trying to learn and accelerate my career. That’s a mega mistake and is really leading from a place of fear.
My advice to myself would be lead from a place of abundance, not fear. You don’t need to work with low integrity people. You have your pick of the litter.
I’d rather less customers but better customers
I’d rather a co-founder who lifts me up than brings me down.
It isn’t worth it. There are enough opportunities that you do not need to work with people you do not think are easy."
https://latecheckout.substack.com/p/a-letter-to-my-20-year-old-self
12. "What’s most interesting about a thesis is that it creates lines beyond which the burden of proof is higher to break your proposed rules. Interestingly, while we’ll mostly adhere to this thesis, when you do deviate it’s perhaps because you have greater conviction. Interestingly these deviations often lead to outsized returns.
I was speaking to my friend Carl, a partner at Swedish firm Creandum recently, and he mentioned how they do not invest in LatAm, yet the few times they had were into unicorn startups. They “didn’t do it,” yet when they had it proved wildly successful.
The reason, I believe, is because the burden of proof for deviation, or drawing outside the lines, is higher. As such you probably do more homework, get more comfort, and have higher belief when you do break the rules that it’s all worth doing. As such, we have a thesis almost insofar as we can break it to find the irreverent parts of ourselves."
https://ideas.scotthartley.com/p/table-stakes-economy
13. "There will be nothing lovely about what the Ukrainian armed forces will need to do in the coming weeks and months. Success will demand an optimal blend of Ukrainian physical, moral and intellectual capacity to maximise its fighting power against Russia.
But their military offensives, along with the myriad of military, intelligence, information and diplomatic activities that will accompany them, are essential to Ukraine’s ultimate victory."
https://mickryan.substack.com/p/the-ukrainian-offensives-are-near
14. "With the ideological goal of a multi-polar world, the resources and intention to wage a technological gray war, and a desire to get an edge through espionage, it’s clear that there is an ongoing Cold War with China.
There is something left to be desired when it comes to alliance building, but that’s a grand strategy project that’s not going to be sorted out in a couple of years. Multiple generations of politicians and diplomats will have to create a Western web of alliances that can hold its own against the centralized powers of the Chinese Communist Party led by Xi Jinping."
https://sss.substack.com/p/knots-of-war
15. "Assuming that the Belgorod raid is aimed at forcing the Russians to divert more forces to defend its own territory, it is another piece of evidence that the major part of the Ukrainian counteroffensive is still a ways a way (in other words that we are still in the shaping stage of the offensive—with the Belgorod Raid an example of a shaping operation).
It would take Russia time to switch forces to the border areas—and Ukraine would want time to launch more raids to persuade them to do it and to give the Russians time to redeploy.
So the raid was probably a sign that the major part of the counteroffensive is still a ways a way—otherwise why do it?"
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-30
16. "What I can tell with certainty is that for the vast majority of people, life does not get better with time. In fact, it gets worse.
Their bodies grow older, they put on weight, their income doesn’t rise much, and the stress from their jobs shows on their face.
Life does not get better unless you make it better. If you are not working to actively make life better, it will only get worse."
https://lifemathmoney.com/does-life-get-better-with-time-where-are-you-headed-in-10-years/
17. "Non-venture backable software companies could explode. If the price of software drops dramatically, that means we will get more software. Most likely that means more fragmented software markets, and that means perhaps we see a lot of $15M revenue software companies with 5 employees and 30% net margins that can’t grow at venture scale."
https://investinginai.substack.com/p/will-ai-kill-vertical-saas
18. What a stupid thing. No phone case being the ultimate flex. Not for me.
"But while some may associate the concept with fine tailoring, a rejection of logomania, or cashmere sweaters from the Row that will set you back over $1000, there’s one quietly trending stealth wealth signifier that, technically, millions of people could adopt right now: stripping the case off your smartphone.
The message here is obvious: no case, no problem, because I can afford to replace it."
https://time.com/6280905/iphone-no-case-rich-people/
19. We absolutely need to be building back up our military industrial base in America. ASAP.
"Back then, the U.S. had 86 military ammunition plants as part of an industrial mobilization designed to meet wartime ammunition needs. Over the decades, the number of facilities dwindled. Today, the Pentagon has just five so-called “government-owned, contractor-operated” plants that supply the military with most of its conventional ammunition, propellants and explosives.
General Dynamics has been enhancing recruitment efforts in anticipation of additional artillery orders for the Scranton plant."
https://time.com/6252541/inside-the-us-army-plant-making-artillery-shells-for-ukraine/
20. Logistics and supply chain are critical pieces of winning wars.
"To understand how the U.S. and its allies are delivering this arsenal, TIME spent months speaking with dozens of people in the U.S. and Europe involved in planning, manufacturing, and distributing military aid for Ukraine.
Those conversations, as well as visits to three states and three countries to observe different elements of the effort, revealed an operation that has overcome many of the challenges posed by supply-chain issues, diminished manufacturing capabilities, and international logistics to get Ukraine what it needs.
But it remains an open question whether the mission can be executed quickly enough to ensure success on the battlefield."
https://time.com/6274688/arming-ukraine-counteroffensive/
21. "Examining the blue whale's life cycle and Redstone's corporate empire, a pattern emerges—one that mirrors the laws of nature and the stark realities of power. The decomposing bodies of these behemoths, one from the natural world and the other from the realm of industry, essentially become a feast for scavengers, whether they be marine critters or high-flying execs.
However, the repercussions diverge: The blue whale's death provides valuable nutrition and contributes to the rich biodiversity of marine life, while Redstone's personal and corporate value mostly ends up captured by a small group of middle managers who contribute nothing.
These stories serve a dual purpose. They're sober reminders of certain immutable truths of existence. The blue whale eventually meets its end, transforming into a charcuterie board for deep-sea scavengers. Similarly, the power and wealth of a billionaire like Redstone ultimately dwindles, leaving behind remnants that attract a flock of opportunists."
https://every.to/napkin-math/a-note-on-power
22. "That’s what Toffler missed. The future came and it didn’t shock us with its complexity. They simplified everything so we can manage by swiping left or right, or just clicking on a button.
It’s “information underload” nowadays—and huge corporations work to deliver it. They ensure that our digital lives have no shocks or surprises. Their algorithms are designed to deliver today something almost identical to what they gave us yesterday. And tomorrow will be no different.
As a result, the future has fallen from view, replaced by a sense of stasis. And so has the past, which ought to be a resource but has become so weightless that it might as well not exist at all. All this is causing real sicknesses, and we don’t need to invent new names for them. They’ve been around a while, only now they’re much worse and afflicting more people.
In a situation like this, we ought to reverse Alvin Toffler’s advice. We need more change, not less. And it ought to be centered on the areas of greatest numbness and disconnectedness. I’m talking about the culture itself, not the technology."
https://tedgioia.substack.com/p/in-1970-alvin-toffler-predicted-the
23. This is worth watching. Jensen Huang of Nvidia's commencement speech at NTU in Taiwan.
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7068599441879953408/
24. Malmo, Sweden is a very cool town. I will need to find some time to re-visit it after a 12 year hiatus.
25. Big fan of this guy. I agree with 90% of what he says. Justin Waller is the man.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xG7oQoo9YpA
26. "Any reasonable assessment of Xi's personality and China's own stated goals to become the world's preeminent power suggest not.
But the piece of the puzzle that really should worry us is that China will increasingly have the military to go far beyond Taiwan. As a matter of pure logic, this does not strictly mean they will, but that is the only prudent bet.
The upshot of this is that Washington, Tokyo and their allies should be prepared to defend Taiwan, with the goal of deterring Beijing from attacking by demonstrating that its efforts to subordinate the island would be too likely to fail.
If Beijing cannot seize the island, its forces will still be essentially constrained behind the island chain formed by the Japanese archipelago, Taiwan and the Philippines. In this context, Beijing will be compelled to negotiate the terms of its further rise on grounds tolerable to the rest of us."
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-s-military-buildup-shows-its-ambitions-go-well-beyond-Taiwan
27. "If China’s economy is to withstand a military conflict with Taiwan, and the inevitable sanctions that such an attack would trigger, it needs to ensure a stable supply of energy. That means fuel for the economy, as well as for the citizens who power it.
Ensuring that China’s population has enough food has plagued every leader since the imperial dynasties. The country is home to one-fifth of the world’s population but only 7% of its arable land and as the population has urbanised, diets have shifted and the number of farmers has declined.
That has left China increasingly reliant on imports to fill its 1.4 billion stomachs. If, in the event of a conflict with Taiwan, China enters a wartime economy, then ensuring a stable food supply will be vital for China’s leaders."
28. "While the roles he has chosen for his acting return are familiar, he’s approaching the work from a whole new vantage point. After an early career that saw him take on movie after sitcom after reality show—always grinding—and a decade-plus of frenzied tabloid attention, Kutcher is settled now. Free. He’s married to an old friend who became a life partner, and he’s enjoying fatherhood.
Kutcher is very much financially independent, too, thanks in no small part to his wildly successful second career in venture-capital investing.
His friend and fellow venture investor Josh Kushner vouches for Kutcher’s skill at assessing opportunities. “Some are surprised that Ashton is good at this, because he has another job that is completely different,” says Kushner. “The reason why he is an exceptional investor is no different than why other people are. He is deeply creative and an extraordinary product thinker.”
Kutcher’s goal in the VC space is simple: as he puts it, “to find cool shit and solve big problems.” The problems change—that’s what keeps it interesting, even as the market gets crowded and good deals get harder to find. Right now, Kutcher has two big themes on his mind: sustainability and the paradigm-shifting potential of AI. Finding the right innovators and disrupters to bet on isn’t easy, but Kutcher’s been right before. On a grand scale, too. And not just with Uber and Airbnb. Spotify. Pinterest. Warby Parker. Those, too."