Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Oct 30th, 2022
"We must let go of the life we have planned, so as to accept the one that is waiting for us."— Joseph Campbell
Very good explanation for the dysfunction happening in China right now. What used to be a very well run country early 2000s and early 2010's is gone.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PL8r1DH1Hw8&t=188s
2. "But self-interest should also ensure strong involvement of the private sector in Ukraine reconstruction, if indeed the rebuild bill will be in the order of USD500 billion plus. Western companies who pledge to assist in the Ukraine rebuild should benefit from participation in contracts and financing projects and the expected sharp and rapid recovery in the Ukrainian economy. Huge amounts of money will be spent in Ukraine and large returns reaped. That should be an incentive for most to get involved.
For many Western businesses, investment in Ukraine also provides an opportunity to improve their global image - some sullied by investments in Russia, and their slow move to exit their investments in Russia. Companies increasingly say that ESG is central to their business decisions. Helping Ukraine’s reconstruction, and the defence of Western Liberal Market Democracy in Ukraine should be the ultimate ESG play.
Western big business should invest in Ukraine as it’s the right thing to do - to push back on neo-patrimonial / corrupt system spearheaded by Russia as an alternative, even in advanced democracies. It is their moment to show where they were when there was a need to stand up and be counted against a regime conducting war crimes and genocide?"
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/ukraine-how-to-fund-reconstruction
3. This looks good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ElPJ719nh4
4. Grifters gotta Grift it seems.
5. Proud investor in this company. Go TheNEO!
6. "This time is no different. The companies, technologies, and offerings may have changed, but the froth and overconfidence are the same because human nature never changes, only people’s experiences do. You just wouldn’t understand, they said. You’re too old to get it. No . . . we do. Unlike those younger, we’ve just seen the aftermath once innocence is lost. As the water retreats, the sand castles crafted by charlatans crumble and investors lauded as visionaries are exposed as illusionists; their outsized returns merely byproducts of favorable tides and timing.
So as central bankers withdraw liquidity, someone needs to step-in to refinance or otherwise replenish the capital. Given the unprecedented deluge of global liquidity, even a small tightening of financial conditions will have an outsized impact on asset prices if the handoff isn’t smooth. Yet the prices and interest rates demanded by the public markets to sustain our heightened expectations will be much higher than the evergreen printers churned by our central bankers.
Ponder that for a moment. We’re transitioning from a world where interest rates were near or at zero for more than a decade to one hovering near 5% in less than a year. There’s a whole generation of investors who don’t understand the value of money because money/financing was free. Now we expect them to all to adjust nimbly? Impossible. This will hurt, things will break, moral hazard will return to heighten morale hazard as sentiment falters. It will be a painful, but necessary lesson, that is until central bankers shift from tightening to firefighting. They won’t want to bail everyone out, but choice is a luxury when system failures cascade."
https://openinsights.substack.com/p/our-q3-2022-letter-and-look-ahead
7. The importance of an Industrial Policy which the US does not have. Jones Act needs to be repealed. Critical to rebirth of US Economy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sc128K695R0
8. An excellent conversation. Brad Gerstner is a great addition here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5IzFvBQ-Zo
9. "All this to say that if you were betting, you'd wager on Colombia's democratic institutions holding up over the next four years. The Petro government doesn't seem to be especially powerful or united, and its approval rating has already dipped 20 points since inauguration. The most probable outcome seems to be a pivot to the center, particularly as financial markets place constraints on Colombia's budget.
That said, it's far from a sure thing that we'll get that approach. Much of the pro-business wing of things is being held up by one man, the finance minister. If he were fired or resigns, that would be a major negative shock to Colombian assets. As discussed, Colombia is running sizable deficits right now, so there needs to be a competent and respected figure that can talk to international bondholders.
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My personal view is that Colombian assets are now so ridiculously priced that it's worth taking a long position on the Peso, Colombian stocks, or local real estate."
https://ianbezek.substack.com/p/the-petro-panic-colombia-has-crashed
10. It's all about semiconductors. China's tech industry has just been massively gutted. Worth watching.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XqMKu0HJyY&t=354s
11. This was an immensely valuable discussion for anyone learning about media and the edge of the internet. SO GOOD! Lots of insights.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGP4_mfwRKw&t=4181s
12. I definitely need to slow down sometimes & breath. Rushing is bad if you are doing it all of the time.
https://www.mattmunson.me/rushing
13. "There are real benefits to age, specifically experience and perspective. But that additional perspective and experience comes at a cost, as our representatives have a difficult time understanding new technologies and how society has changed. Folks who have ideas for change and the hunger to set them in motion are shut out, left with staff roles or positions in private enterprise.
In business, entrenchment is profitable for shareholders, though eventually an innovator will rise. In politics, the biggest winner is often the politician — and when governments are dysfunctional or allocate scarce resources poorly, we all suffer. We need more churn."
https://www.profgalloway.com/churn
14. Taipei is a great city and one of my favorite places in the world.
"At ground level, Taipei offers a unique shopping experience. The streets are lined with nice little shops and restaurants — and when I say “little”, I mean tiny even by Japanese standards. These are almost all on the first floor, as in most cities. Unlike the concrete facades of many buildings, these shops are fresh and cheery and clean and new-looking.
There are far fewer boutique clothing stores than in Japan, but restaurants seem to largely make up the difference. The food is every bit as good as you’ve heard — eating is one of Taiwan’s favorite pastimes. Craft stores are also common, and the quality seems very high. I noticed quite a few jewelry stores, which seems odd in a country where everyone seems to dress down."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/taipei-urbanism
15. "When life really hits the fan, what are the two things people will turn to?
Necessities.
Vices.
That is it. Any commodities purchased online with discretionary income that are seen as pure, high priced luxury will likely fall in a recession, save for those customers who are well off who will not notice much a of a dent in either income/assets or both, likely because they are already wealthy.
Everyone else? They will focus on making sure they have four walls of shelter and utilizes paid for, and then turn to alcohol, tobacco, fast food, and soft drinks as coping mechanisms. If they see a $9 or $12 product they can add as a pick-me-up every once a while? They may grab that too.
So what does this mean for eCom? Cheaper products often perform better in a recession. The lower AOV, the less of a decision a purchase is to a customer."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/ecommerce-in-a-downturn
16. This is an excellent tool for fundraising and I agree this is a smart approach to synching on fundraising. (some folks use Discord)
https://chrisneumann.com/blog/whatsapp-the-ultimate-fundraising-tool
17. "Perhaps, from the outside, a chef using a wheelchair makes for a compelling story; the guy who got shot and came right back into the kitchen, running things from his wheelchair like a boss. But Aleem's story is a different reality: the guy who took over a decade to come back. He'd been working away in his food truck, and he'd never told his story, never shared the details. It's only now that he's ready.
"I would pray all the time, that would help a lot." Aleem prayed until he felt something change. "I had to go through the emotional cycle, where I had to learn how to accept what God gave me, or the situation that I was in, and how to be able to work with it. And I had to figure that out by myself. There's no other way to put it. Somehow, with a leap of faith I was able to accept the situation. And there was freedom in that."
https://www.foodandwine.com/chefs/aleem-syed-toronto-chef-thg-chicken
18. This is timely and I'm actually quite bullish on the future of Japan.
"Importantly, even without the exchange rate, Japanese companies are cheap, with 49 percent of listed companies trading below book value, their assets worth more than what you must pay in the market to buy them.
Japanese companies trade on a 12-times price-to-earnings (PE) multiple, which is cheap compared with the 24-times PE multiple commanded by those in the United States.
When buying Japan Inc., you basically earn back your investment in half the time—corporate earnings alone will let you recoup your investment in just 12 years in Japan, while you must wait 24 years in the United States. So, the costs of buying and operating productive assets has become very attractive in Japan."
https://japanoptimist.substack.com/p/what-to-buy-in-japan
19. "The project, led by the Soviet-born billionaire Vladislav Doronin, is the first outpost in the city of Aman Resorts. Based in Switzerland, with properties in Asia, Africa, Europe, the Caribbean, and the western U.S., Aman has long occupied the zenith of luxury travel, offering sui generis experiences in exotic, secluded locales: coastal Vietnam, the mountains of Bhutan, Moroccan olive groves, the pinewoods of southwestern Turkey.
With nightly rates that can exceed $4,000, the resorts are principally characterized by an otherworldly beauty that arises from pairing unsullied landscapes with exquisite minimalist design. They emphasize tranquillity, peace, and (inevitably) wellness. But Aman New York was conceived in conflict."
https://www.curbed.com/2022/10/aman-new-york-vladislav-doronin.html
20. "In late 1992, the UK branch of the vacuum manufacturer, Hoover, offered an impossibly sweet promotion: If a customer bought any product worth £100, he or she would get two free round-trip flights to the United States.
For the 84-year-old electronics brand, it was meant to be an eye-catching way to boost dwindling sales, escape the gloom of a recession, and shrug off increased competition.
Instead, it led to the destruction of the company — a precipitous downfall that saw multimillion-dollar losses and customer revolts."
https://thehustle.co/the-worst-sales-promotion-in-history
21. "They say misinformation is harmful. I say their laws are dangerous.
As I’ve spoken about many times in this newsletter, if your nation is going down a path you don’t agree with, there are always actions you can take. For example, the acquisition of new passports or residencies that will allow you to live elsewhere, or the creation of an independent income that will offer you the ability to call another place home.
But even better? To me, that would be the act of resisting any company or nation-state that believes they have the power to decide what is or isn’t true."
https://abundantia.substack.com/p/dangerous-laws-incoming
22. "This most recent NOPEC threat is a dangerous gambit. Unlike prior bluffs, Biden is pointing this particular weapon at a time when his targets have good reason to believe he might actually shoot, potentially triggering a series of preemptive moves and an irreversible escalation that leads to a situation with no winners. If there are dots of potential doom to connect, you can bet we are on it. Let’s dig in.
What makes the current incarnation of the NOPEC threat different? It comes in the aftermath of an unprecedented sanction that froze Russia’s foreign reserves. While many were quick to cheer the move as an excellent way to punish Putin for his invasion of Ukraine, we had our doubts about the efficacy of the policy, and whether the West had fully thought through the consequences."
“…This move substantially increases the risk that the US dollar loses its privileged status as the global reserve currency and, at a minimum, likely ensures a polarization of the global economy into at least two camps – the West in one and Russia/China/Iran/Saudi Arabia plus other targeted or aligned countries in the other. If $20-30 trillion or more of global GDP spurns the preexisting reserve currency, is it still the reserve currency? If reserves can be negated overnight, are they even reserves? How many other countries must hedge against the possibility of similar sanctions?”
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/listen-jack
23. "Human nature is to look at the ideas directly ahead. What problem do I have right now? What idea do I care most about? While these are the logical starting point, and should be encouraged, it’s important for entrepreneurs to step back and think big. If everything went stunningly well, what could this become? Does that meet my ambitions?
While some ideas start small and become bigger than expected, most often, small ideas start small and stay small. During idea selection, take the time and energy to think more about what could be and ensure there’s the potential for greatness.
Make no little plans."
https://davidcummings.org/2022/10/22/make-no-little-plans
24. "Think of your will as fire. How do you increase the inner flame? How do you prevent it from burning out? Furthermore, how can you combine that fire with the fire of your people and ignite a firestorm? A purifying conflagration. These are the things the first men had to think about. How can he steel his heart for the struggles, the battles, and the wars ahead of him?
The Sacred Fire inspired man. It offered protection, warmth, and a chance for reflection. Maybe for the ancients, the Sacred Fire ignited their own inner fire. You must imagine the inner fire within yourself. What makes that fire grow? What starves it? Take note of each and build your life around forging a powerful inner fire.
Fire and fanaticism are worth more to you and our side than the deepest intellectualism."
https://resavager.substack.com/p/the-sacred-fire
25. "One of my main takeaways is that mastery takes time. There are many skills that I have been practicing for approximately 5 years. That is only about 50% of the way to the 10 year timeline of intense study that Greene points out is needed for true mastery. Good reminder that we all must stay persistent, disciplined, and obsessed with learning."
https://pomp.substack.com/p/pomps-notes-on-mastery
26. Good perspective on possible VC investment environment in 2023.
https://mobile.twitter.com/zachcoelius/status/1584642085918887937
27. We should all be watching this move very closely and what it means for the US dollar dominance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7naJ6SSXli8
28. "For Ukraine the front-line troops may be able to cope while many civilians at home struggle without electricity and water. Residents of Kyiv are being told to prepare for blackouts of four hours a day. Elsewhere hospitals, transport and critical social infrastructure is being given priority. Concrete slabs and sand are being brought in to protect important energy sites.
In the west of the country preparations are being made to accept more internal refugees from the east as mass evacuations may be unavoidable. No one pretends that this winter will be anything other than miserable, but there is no evidence that it is making the people of Ukraine any less determined to win the war.
From the start Putin has relied on coercive pressures to deliver the political victories that he has failed to achieve by military means. For all the suffering he has caused in Ukraine he has yet to succeed. The resilience of the Ukrainian people will certainly be tested by the freezing weather, as will that of Russian soldiers, away from home, poorly led, often cut off from supplies and in exposed positions.
The key question at for this winter season is how many of the troops ordered to hold their positons at its start will be there at the end."
https://samf.substack.com/p/general-winter-knocks-at-the-door
29. This actually could make sense. If anyone can do it, it’s Mr Beast who is a pioneer on many fronts.
https://watcher.guru/news/mrbeast-plans-to-raise-150m-at-a-1-5b-valuation
30. This was a great discussion on the edge of the internet. So many great observations on the growth of technology and crypto.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g06_pHUPfNQ&t=1996s
31. "With no shortage of people already at the company excited to work with Elon, the departure of political zealots and lazy malcontents would not even matter were Elon incapable of recruiting. But when it comes to recruiting, Elon is uniquely well-positioned. Among technologists, this is a man perceived as the very best the industry has to offer. In the months to come, he’ll attract a flood of smart, new people. They will bring ideas, and they will bring enthusiasm.
The authoritarian culture that was born after Trump’s election and metastasized after Covid has captured almost every major institution in the country, and every major technology company. But there is now at least one public space that exists beyond the influence of the One Party. The rebels have stormed the radio tower. Authoritarianism may still be ascendant nationally, but there’s a glimmer of hope for weirdos and skeptics."
https://www.piratewires.com/p/elon-musk-has-taken-twitter-day-zero
32. "Another way of saying that is "being contrarian, and right." The name of my firm is literally Contrary, so it's something we think about a lot. If you think and do what everyone else is thinking and doing, that's a fine way to make friends but not a recipe for outsized investment returns. Finding the things about which very few people agree with you is the way to create opportunity for massive outcomes.
Peter Thiel is often the investor people think of when it comes to making contrarian bets. There’s a quote of his that always surprises me because it moves away from just "disagreeing with everyone" to focus on a more important dynamic for doing things differently:
"The most contrarian thing of all is not to oppose the crowd but to think for yourself."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/the-hype-cycles-of-venture-capital
33. "Change is hard, it’s merciless, like a steamroller crushing everything in its way. Changing means saying goodbye to the past, to the safe and comfortable, to the known and familiar, and venture into a world where everything is a moving object."
https://fewerbetterthings.substack.com/p/you-gotta-learn-to-love-the-process
34. "We have now reached a point in the startup ecosystem where for large VC funds, a startup achieving a billion-dollar outcome is meaningless. To hit a 3-5x return for a fund, a venture partnership is looking to partner with startups that can go public at north of $50B dollars. In the entire universe of public technology companies, there are only 48 public tech companies that are valued at over $50B.
Simultaneously there are close to 1,000 venture funds all trying to find these select few. This is a huge problem. It is likely that many of the funds deployed over recent years will be some of the worst-performing of all time."
https://every.to/napkin-math/venture-capital-is-ripe-for-disruption