Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads October 22nd, 2023
“To err is human; to forgive, divine”–Alexander Pope
Hard to argue against any of these points. Only people who can reverse Russia's losses are the idiots in US Govt like Matt Gaetz and other appeasers.
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/so-much-winning-by-putin
2. This was an extremely valuable discussion on careers and having goals.(Systems are better). Recommend listening.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FP8AlPI4gaY
3. Such a great show. Also worth watching if you want to know what's up in tech.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HHlsBBrV94U
4. These are important discussions as seed VCs try to figure out whether their model and product to founders is useful or not.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxT-23r5Yag&t=839s
5. "With no need for public-market financing, and more options for finding liquidity, private investors will continue to fund a company until the firm arrives at one of two stations: The company is strong but mature and the returns from its growth phase are fully harvested, or its model is suspect and existing shareholders need to deploy a series of false signals to greater fools so they can fling feces at tourists to the unicorn zoo.
And while private capital investors (aka the very rich) reap the gains, public investors (aka everyone else) have scant access to the markets where real wealth is created. As capital concentrates, so does power. The “shareholder class” has always been elite. But, at one time, it reached down to the merely affluent and then, through pension and retirement funds, to the masses — diffusing influence, and strengthening democracy. Public ownership’s transparency requirements are preventive against collusion, graft, and a steady march toward a dynastic society.
Instead we have bailouts of the rich, tech firms who capture trillions building a thick layer of innovation on top of public investments while decreasing R&D and paying less taxes, and an idolatry of innovators who, despite being absent fathers or just shitty investors, continue to capture our affection and capital."
https://www.profgalloway.com/private/
6. "People are alone, angry, and depressed. Something has to change. The world we're living in is simply unsustainable. The world that millennials were promised no longer exists. It is a lie to pretend otherwise. Millennials were raised to dream big, to believe that we could change the world. Now we are told that we are entitled for desiring more from this life, for asking for the things that we were promised growing up. We’re harangued that we should know our place before seeking to change things.
Yet, all the while, our elders, the Silent Generation and Baby Boomers, continue to cling onto power while keeping one foot in the grave. How else should one interpret the aging Senators who prefer to die in office of old age and terminal illness rather than relinquish their grip on power? Raised on the importance of competence and promoting the best-qualified people for the job, we watch as our President struggles to climb stairs and our Senate Majority Leader nearly has a stroke on live tv.
The abandonment of classical American civic virtues didn’t start with millennials, we merely mimicked what we saw in our elders. A few fall days, 9/11, 9/15, and 11/8, totally reshaped millennials’ perception of reality. The intervening years only solidified our cynicism."
https://www.shatterpointsgeopolitics.com/p/a-few-fall-days
7. "This notion of “right-to-left” thinking aligns with other ambitious growth strategies, like the “triple, triple, double, double, double” approach championed by Neeraj Agrawal. The underlying message is clear: set ambitious goals, understand what’s needed to achieve them, and then work backwards to make them a reality.
Adopting this right-to-left methodology where you work backwards from exponential growth is an invaluable approach for entrepreneurs. It emphasizes expansive, long-term vision over incremental, short-term gains. The most significant accomplishments stem from the boldest ambitions."
https://davidcummings.org/2023/10/07/think-about-the-growth-curve-from-right-to-left/
8. Lots of global implications for the barbaric Hamas attacks on Israel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7TGj7iLpoA
9. "Like tigers eyeing their prey. The world is starting to revert into a jungle, where the strong prey upon the weak, and where there is a concomitant requirement that every country build up its own strength; if your neighbor is a tiger, you should probably grow some claws of your own. Old scores that had to wait can now be settled. Disputed bits of territory can now be retaken. Natural resources can now be seized. There are many reasons for countries to fight each other, and now one of the biggest reasons not to fight has been removed.
Anyway, Pax Americana always had an expiration date. If the U.S. had avoided the Iraq War and maintained its defense-industrial base, it could have prolonged its hegemony by about a decade, but ultimately the rising power of China would have ensured the return of the multipolarity that existed before World War 2. In any case, it’s over now, and until and unless a new dominant global coalition of nation-states can be forged — either a Chinese-led global order or some kind of expanded democratic hegemony that includes India and large other developing nations — we’re going to have to re-learn how to live in the jungle.
Over the past two decades it had become fashionable to lambast American hegemony, to speak derisively of “American exceptionalism”, to ridicule America’s self-arrogated function of “world police”, and to yearn for a multipolar world. Well, congratulations, now we have that world. See if you like it better."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/youre-not-going-to-like-what-comes
10. "Although the people who spanned the Inca empire once boasted a range of varied opinions, ideas, expressions, customs, and even gods, Pachacuti ended that within just a few generations. All he left the people with were the ideas, beliefs, and expressions he mandated were acceptable.
I fear if we allow the laws I’ve outlined here to propagate and be further accepted into society, we’ll be faced with the same thing in only a generation or two. We’ll be living in a world of state-sanctioned ideas. A world that our children, or grandchildren will believe is normal, because that will be the world they were born into, and the world that has shaped their ideas and beliefs. The only world they have ever known.
Do you want that world to come to pass? I don’t."
https://abundantia.substack.com/p/you-will-obey
11. Hamas are pawns of Iran (and the axis of Russia/China) and not just terrorists.
"The theory is, Hamas would do do whatever it takes to instigate Israel into doing warcrimes in an attempt to sour their relationship with the Arab world. This would also be great for Iran geopolitically because it could potentially puts the Saudis in a dilemma. It could diminish the Saudi’s influence in the middle east for being friendly and not calling out Israel, or ruin their relationship progress if they do call them out.
Iran is still in the game to be top dog in the middle east."
https://bowtiedhitman.substack.com/p/wtf-happened-in-israel
12. That was a good trip and glad to see the Ukrainian startup scene thriving.
https://ain.capital/2023/10/10/how-to-pitch-the-startup-properly-marvin-liao/
13. "Coming at a time when foreign policy debate in Washington is consumed with the question of whether the United States should focus on the Indo-Pacific or continue its support for Ukraine, the Hamas attack should perhaps also have been expected. The deepening conflict between the world’s democracies, led by the United States, and the de facto Russian-Chinese-Iranian alliance made what is now happening in the Middle East not only possible, but likely."
https://www.city-journal.org/article/a-wake-up-call-for-america-too
14. This was surprisingly interesting and really educational from the controversial Tai Lopez. Be a prince, king or emperor. Most billionaires are warlords.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W8tVACv4w1I&t=435s
15. This is worth listening to for startup founders. Angellist has built something very special there culture and organization wise.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Q6a0Smrots
16. I find this therapeutic somehow these days.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFbWXP-zAQQ
17. "Carey Smith, the founding “contrarian” at Unorthodox Capital has explained how VC is built on bubbles. I’m not suggesting that any of the recent raises are ill-deserved. I wish each company the greatest of success; I know that the DoD needs these products. I do worry, however, that we’re seeing a shift from the deployment of purely “patriotic capital” to the deployment of “momentum capital.”
https://andrewglenn.substack.com/p/hot-in-herre
18. Every creator entrepreneur should watch this. It’s such a master class on building online.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVnAsulQAl4
19. Mexico will be the place to be it seems.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYSwKaGWZKU
20. What an interesting and impressive dude. Great interview with doctor and businessman.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3K43YBxUp0I&t=307s
21. "So Hamas it seems was the dog that caught the car. We have reports coming in they wanted to do just another attack on Israel. However, they caught what is now seeming to be the perfect storm with: Israel having less military assets due to supporting the front lines in Ukraine, some reservists not showing up due to political rhetoric, bureaucratic red tape with Israeli Intelligence and perhaps some construction corruption.
This resulted in them in just inciting chaos and destruction rather than any informed or coordinated strike on any high value targets within Israel. Because they had no strategy beyond the wall.
The balance of Power within the Middle East has shifted.
These attacks and retaliations underscore the idea that no one can live in harmony with the enemy on their doorstep. Ukraine is perhaps another example of this… We are now entering an era where hard power is returning, the era of Globalization and Peace is ending, where old wounds will be exposed, and borders redrawn.
We are living through History."
https://mercurial.substack.com/p/holy-war
22. "Thanks in part to a massive, well funded influence operation in the West, the Qatari regime has succeeded in branding itself in western circles as an intermediary force that can help to negotiate between jihadists and western governments. Of course, that couldn’t be further from the truth.
Qatar is not only protected by its army of lobbyists, which include former U.S. military officials who have sold their soul for jihadi blood money, Doha is geopolitically protected by the Al Udeid Air Base southwest of Doha, which hosts the U.S. Air Force and other foreign air forces.
What often remains unspoken, through the fog of Qatar’s well-funded influence campaign, is the reality that these jihadist forces are protected, celebrated, and advanced by Doha. It’s not difficult to discover Qatar’s longtime funding and arming of several internationally recognized terrorist organizations."
https://www.dossier.today/p/the-qatari-elephant-in-the-room
23. What an interesting perspective on the global economy. From an Irish hedge funder based in London.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2HdKCC31nOI
24. "what remains of the civilized world can. It can arm, it can stand together, and it can steel itself to inflict violence differently than the barbarians do, but to far greater effect. The civilized nations are enormously wealthy, have large and capable armed forces and behind them vast reserves of talented men and women. They have the capacity, should they care to exercise it, to contain and push back the barbarians—who, let us remember, will never entirely go away, and who will always haunt our nightmares."
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/10/barbarism-israel-gaza-hamas-russia-war/675613/
25. "To placate its proletariat — who just wanted their good-paying manufacturing jobs back — former US President Trump started a trade war with China. Current US President Biden has continued the onslaught by signing into law the CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act. These acts give generous government subsidies and outright payments to companies for building domestic semiconductor facilities and clean energy infrastructure. These outlays will be paid for by issuing more debt in the form of bonds, which in turn are purchased by the US’ trading partners.
America is cheating by using the savings of China, Japan, and Germany to rebuild domestic industry so that American firms can make goods for America. Obviously, that diminishes the market for Chinese, Japanese, and German goods. As expected, many export-focused nations have cried “protectionism” (as if American politicians give a fuck when faced with losing at the ballot box).
Predictably, US Treasuries have lost value in energy terms, as the amount of debt in circulation has grown exponentially. If I were a large holder of these pieces of trash, I would be fucking pissed. China, Japan, and Germany obviously see the writing on the wall, which is why they have ceased re-investing their export earnings into these bonds. That is cheating as well.
Errbody’s cheating, and for valid reasons. It is obvious that a new global economic system will eventually be created, whether the elites like it or not. The imbalances cannot continue. But as long as those in charge refuse to acknowledge reality, money will be printed in hopes that “growth” is just around the corner — and we can thus Make America, China, Japan, and Germany Great Again!"
https://medium.com/@cryptohayes/double-happiness-18c6533c22ca
26. Older podcast (2 months old) but still very relevant. End of VC Epoch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybMPkzKVKEk
27. This seems sadly descriptive of the West, especially America.
https://twitter.com/NeckarValue/status/1712563533341462965
28. Tai Lopez is back. It's a really fascinating conversation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Qn07rX79pU
29. "In addition to outmaneuvering the Biden administration, MBS restored ties with Qatar, made moves to end a war he had started in Yemen, and, most unbelievably of all, patched up his relationship with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the president of Turkey. It was Erdoğan who had released secret recordings that exposed MBS’s involvement in the Khashoggi murder in 2018, and photos of the two men shaking hands last year proved that the crown prince was willing to put political considerations above personal grudges.
The secret to MBS’s power is his ability to spend lavishly, without checks and balances. It makes Saudi Arabia and its powerful sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund, one of the world’s most sought-after financial institutions. On top of remaking the country’s economy, Saudi Arabia is plowing billions of dollars into sports, entertainment, and gaming, all areas that improve the country’s standing with young people around the globe.
It may be that, by simply appearing open to the deal, MBS has been able to put Jamal Khashoggi’s murder behind him in the eyes of the diplomatic community and recast himself as the Middle East’s most consequential figure."
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/10/saudi-israeli-deal-likely-off-mbs
30. Both experts in Personal Holding Companies. Build or Buy. Do both.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9g6ErC0O9g0&t=819s
31. "My point is that a lot of complexity is required just to meet today’s baseline expectations. When you meet them, a user doesn’t scream out in joy—they just use it. Maybe that’s one reason why software development has become slower."
https://every.to/p/why-we-don-t-ship-software-as-fast-as-we-used-to
32. "If you scroll back through previous issues of this newsletter, you’ll find a recurring theme: societal ills resulting from cravings. From meme stocks and Robinhood to TikTok addiction and Twitter enragement, to obesity itself, human weakness subjugated to our brain’s reward circuitry is no less a threat to our well-being than climate change, authoritarianism, or cancer. According to Harvard’s Grant Study on happiness, the factor most commonly present in the least-happy cohort was alcohol. It’s that fundamental.
A drug that rewires these reward circuits could be an epochal step in human evolution. And why not? We’ve compensated for evolution in many other ways, from the protection of clothing to the assistance of eyeglasses to the power of wheeled transport. Perhaps we’ve reached the point where a salt/fat/dopa drive, evolved on the savannah of scarcity, can give way to a motivational superstructure suited for our era of superabundance. GLP-1 innovation may be scaffolding for instincts in need of updating."
https://www.profgalloway.com/seconds/
33. "The Israeli demand for Palestinians in north Gaza to move south in 24H surely is inhumane, infeasible and worrying when combined with suggestions from some in Israel that Palestinians from Gaza should be relocated to Sinai in Egypt.
This smacks of ethnic cleansing which I would have thought the West understood from its experience from the wars for Yugoslav succession. Our governments seem to learn nothing from history.
Surely no civilised country can punish a whole nation for the actions of a minority. The language being used by many and, indeed actions on the battlefield would suggest otherwise now.
It is sad to see the lack of humanity from the extremes on both sides.
Our leaders fail to learn that much from history - sad, and worrying."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/reflections-on-developments-in-the
34. "From an entrepreneur’s standpoint, it’s easy to become engrossed in the thrill of securing funding, expanding the team, and growing the business. Yet, more growth doesn’t always equal a better business. Some markets just aren’t that big. Some markets take longer to develop. Furthermore, personal priorities evolve, and one’s perspective on opportunities can shift over time. And, every round of funding shifts the goal posts further out.
Entrepreneurs shouldn’t keep raising money just because they can, especially after a $100M valuation. Instead, entrepreneurs should continually evaluate what they’re signing up for and what outcomes are required to be successful."
https://davidcummings.org/2023/10/14/100m-valuation-and-no-more-funding/