Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads October 6th, 2024
“A diamond is a piece of coal that stuck to the job.” – Michael Larsen
State of venture investing & fundraising in Europe. Lessons post boom. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLguB-j8E9E
2. I enjoyed this interview with a Deeptech VC.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v8so2ijONKA
3. Interesting discussion on longevity & biotech. I've long been fascinated by the sector. But I always found it hard to understand, thus hard for me to invest in.
But biotech is really the future in my view. The first trillionaire will come from this sector.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWLb4EvUwoQ
4. "In effect there are two different ways to run a company: founder mode and manager mode. Till now most people even in Silicon Valley have implicitly assumed that scaling a startup meant switching to manager mode. But we can infer the existence of another mode from the dismay of founders who've tried it, and the success of their attempts to escape from it.
There are as far as I know no books specifically about founder mode. Business schools don't know it exists. All we have so far are the experiments of individual founders who've been figuring it out for themselves. But now that we know what we're looking for, we can search for it. I hope in a few years founder mode will be as well understood as manager mode. We can already guess at some of the ways it will differ.
The way managers are taught to run companies seems to be like modular design in the sense that you treat subtrees of the org chart as black boxes. You tell your direct reports what to do, and it's up to them to figure out how. But you don't get involved in the details of what they do. That would be micromanaging them, which is bad.
Hire good people and give them room to do their jobs. Sounds great when it's described that way, doesn't it? Except in practice, judging from the report of founder after founder, what this often turns out to mean is: hire professional fakers and let them drive the company into the ground."
https://paulgraham.com/foundermode.html
5. It's always enlightening and motivating at the same time when I listen to Wes Watson.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RttYlGP1fG8
6. "Billionaires like Musk and Durov shouldn’t be above the law. But it’s clear the law isn’t being applied fairly or equally across all billionaires. Only those who refuse to censor or allow complete government control of our data seem to be targets.
Musk and Durov are our Templar Knights. The governments of the EU, France, and Brazil are modern-day equivalents of Prince Philip IV having a temper tantrum.
Our leaders won’t stop painting targets on people like Durov and Musk. Because it’s never been about crime. If it was, every other messaging app and social platform would have been shut down already.
Governments despise independent power."
https://anticitizen.com/p/kill-the-messenger
7. "We live in an age of grifters, hucksters, scammers, and narrative weavers. Everyone is looking for the opportunity to take advantage of others at the expense of any long-term value. And, what's worse, they've managed to craft such a strong sense of self that they can't acknowledge the way in which they've taken advantage of people.
I think every person has a responsibility to treat their life NOT like a status quo novel where they're guaranteed not only to be the hero, but to survive, succeed, and thrive.
I think every person has a responsibility to treat their life like the "Choose Your Own Adventure" novel that it really is. Choices and consequences. Consider the possibility that you are the bad guy. Consider the possibility that you're wrong. And then explore accordingly."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/against-your-own-self-interest
8. "Status limbo is a state of ambiguity and future uncertainty about your status, both in your estimation and as perceived by others.
When in limbo, your status is challenging to pinpoint, both for yourself and those around you. And your future status is uncertain, with no visible path in front of you charting your next steps.
To get status, you have to give up status. You have to sacrifice some existing status to make it back and more. This is especially true in creative fields and high-upside opportunities. Writers, musicians, actors, directors, entrepreneurs must all do their time in status limbo. And you don’t know how long that time will be. How well you tolerate this state can be the “winning” difference between you and someone just as talented and hard-working as you.
The more status you have, the more you may feel yourself giving it up. That’s the price that comes with the privilege of your starting position. Are you willing to pay it?"
https://www.workingtheorys.com/p/status-limbo
9. Amen.
"Many of the assumptions underlying the startup boom of the 2010s were fundamentally misguided. In my opinion, we are now exiting the age of glut and entering the era of the gritty startup—companies that take the best of what we learned and reject the harmful habits of yesteryear. This is not just about being “lean” or cash-flow positive. I genuinely believe that we are on the cusp of a spiritual and operational revolution in how we build organizations.
Gritty startups will still provide generous equity packages, but they won’t hire the same volume of people. They’ll be smaller, faster, weirder, different. Employees will use AI to do 10 times more work than what previous generations of employees did. It’ll be a hard transition for most—it is tough to accept that expectations are 10 times what they were before—but it is also deeply empowering. At Every, we like to say that AI will make you the most creative you’ve ever been.
In many ways, gritty startups will look the same as what came before. They’ll still be scrappy and hard. They will still pursue big visions—and if anything, their visions will be even bigger. But crucially, they will know what they are—and that starts with the recognition that AI means you can build a fundamentally more effective company. You don’t build the next Google by acting in the same way it did. You do it by building something new."
https://every.to/napkin-math/welcome-to-the-era-of-the-gritty-startup
10. Another example of the rot happening in Academia in America. Incredible.
Bureaucracy at work. BITFD.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWMpB0fK1Sk
11. So much to learn from Bill Gurley, one of the most storied vc investors in Silicon Valley.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-Glbvtw9Z4
12. This is a solid punch in the face for understanding how to scale sales teams.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBxwWXlA4Po
13. "So, all allies are being roped into place. America is pulling Japan, Australia, and others like Singapore closer together. Russia is pulling in China and the BRICs.
The US is actively demonstrating this shift by moving its battle command operations into both Japan and Australia while making it clearer to China and Russia that the US will not tolerate any encroachment on these two allies. The US is requiring Japan and Australia to become more deeply integrated into the US commercial economy and the American strategic security space. While preparing to decelerate from Taiwan and Ukraine, the US is increasing its presence in Asia, especially in Japan and Australia. This clearly signals to China and Russia that these two countries are sacrosanct.
Similarly, The Washington Post writes, “Australia offers U.S. a vast new military launchpad in China conflict: Australia is expanding its northern military bases, with U.S. support, to counter China's growing threat. Critics quip it’s become the “51st state.” However, this is controversial in Australia because it remains caught between the US and China. China remains a critical trading partner, and the US remains a critical defense ally. Australia’s job at the moment is to try to avoid being asked to choose sides. It watches carefully as both China and the US jockey for footholds and influence across the many island nations of the Pacific that lie between America’s forward presence in Guam and Hawaii. I’ve called this the Cold War in Hot Places. The Lowy Institute calls it the “Great Game” in the Pacific Islands. Taiwan is no longer the only island that matters between the US and China. Seemingly unimportant, remote and small Pacific island nations are now central to global geopolitics, which further enhances Australia's strategic importance to the US.
Some call Australia an “unsinkable aircraft carrier,” but the reality is that Australia would rather not test that proposition. Japan, Australia, and the world would be relieved if the stress between the superpowers had de-escalated."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/the-geopolitics-of-asia-pac-australia
14. "This is where Australia’s position becomes critical. Its commercial well-being is linked to China, and its strategic well-being is linked to the US. As such, Australia is beautifully placed to help diplomatically encourage these two superpowers to keep talking and find a way forward. Australia is talking to the Pacific Island nations.
The South China Morning Post recently wrote, “Beijing has been restrained in response to Pacific island leaders backing Canberra’s regional policing plan – a move seen as a “diplomatic coup” and a “masterstroke” for Australia as it tries to counter China’s security presence in the region.”
To the world, this may seem inconsequential. For those in the know, this is a central part of managing geopolitical tensions and moving the superpowers away from conflict and toward cooperation."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/the-geopolitics-of-asia-pac-australia-54f
15. "As I look at the broader venture ecosystem, it rests on the laurels of best practices and pattern recognition. The long duration and volatility of return cycles permits allocators (both on the LP and GP side) to simply stay the course on what has been done (and is perceived as safe), rather than what is new. This has been gamified to feed the AUM of large scale asset managers - they have adapted and evolved in the Darwinian nature they were supposed to and I place no fault on them for doing so (it’s an evolutionary function of the free market).
However, my fear is that we will see an extinction level event to the venture industry if left unaddressed. This is akin to when you see an foreign predator come into an ecosystem that they are suited to dominate and effectively kill off all other life, eroding their own feed supply and ultimately collapsing the ecosystem.
Unlike in RE, PE or public investing (where small timers can win by accessing obscure opportunities and the returns are normally distributed), consolidation in venture (given power law and the needs for downstream funding) may yield a landscape where ONLY the megas survive unless thoughtful action is taken to embrace greater diversification - in terms of both capital and cognitive thought."
https://newsletter.equal.vc/p/the-extinction-of-venture-capital
16. "Like Pavlovian dogs, we all believe the correct response to rate cuts is to BTFD. This behavioural response is rooted in the recent memories of Pax Americana’s subdued inflation. Whenever there was a threat of deflation, which is terrible for financial asset holders, aka rich cunts, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) responded forcefully by pressing the Brrr button on its money printer. The dollar is the global reserve currency, creating easy monetary conditions for the world.
The effects of global fiscal policies to fight the COVID hoax or pandemic, depending on your view, ended an era of deflation and ushered in an era of inflation. Central banks belatedly acknowledged the inflationary effects of COVID-19, justified monetary and fiscal policies, and hiked rates. Global bond markets, and most importantly, the US bond market, believed our monetary masters’ seriousness about vanquishing inflation and did not send yields 2 da moon.
However, the assumption is that the witches and warlocks at the helm of various central banks will continue raising the price of money and reducing its supply to appease the bond market. This is a very dubious assumption, given the current political climate."
https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/boom-times-delayed
17. Great discussion today on NIA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zyMXHVeR9rQ
18. SO much here re: the Data ecosystem and implications for startups and enterprise.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLzsLgacR6c
19. This is a grim forecast.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPECLBd22Eo
20. This is an eye-opening discussion. Heretical to this day's stupid woke sentiments and I love it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ef09eK5zHSk&t=2703s
21. This is always insightful and interesting. Global Macro and geopolitics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6KBZw9fIO7Q
22. The most interesting and original VC fund in the world. Founders Fund.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_xHxZqGIyIg
23. All seems surprising but I guess we will see. Net net: More manufacturing jobs in America and lots of inflation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-VQzjxHaWc
24. Always love this show. Fun yet also education. Get a good zeitgeist of Silicon Valley.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NhK0rlfpsvs
25. "Over the past two decades America expended vast resources to fight scheduled wars that, at a strategic level, resulted in failure. The grand “nation-building” and “state-building” projects pursued by successive administrations, Democrat and Republican, depleted our national resources, shrank the nation’s military to the point where we are able to fight only in one major theater, reduced and consolidated our defense industrial base such that we no longer have the capacity to produce weapons and munitions at speed and scale, and most of all, sapped public confidence that our leaders are able to provide effectively for our security and defense, and to do so at an acceptable cost.
During the two decades of the Global War on Terror and “overseas contingency operations” we seem to have forgotten the basic verities of great power politics, i.e., that there is no substitute for hard power, and that in a state-on-state near-peer conflict a country’s military capabilities ultimately rest on its manufacturing capacity, its manpower reserves, and its human capital, for without them no nation will have the requisite resilience to deter and, if need be, defeat its enemies.
The United States needs a generational investment in defense, an effort that will require the next administration to articulate a clear vision of victory – not in normative terms and values, but one that speaks directly to geopolitics, our economic welfare, and the security of our homeland.
We need a strategy that returns national security priorities to our economic policy-making, speaks directly to the imperative of re-shoring our critical manufacturing and supply chains, and most all is grounded in the clear articulation of the hierarchy of our national interests. Those critical of increased defense spending argue that the American public will not support more military spending, but the truth is that as of today nobody has made a clear case to the public about how dangerous the international system has become, and what is at stake."
https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2024/09/06/phase_zero_of_the_coming_war_1056517.html
26. For anyone who cares about the art and craft of super early stage venture capital, this was a great conversation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYWNMd6LkUU
27. "My bias is probably obvious: I lean towards the abundance side of the spectrum. I know you have to take leaps of faith to build a successful company, even if that means having a smaller role and less control. I want to have the biggest possible impact on the market, build wealth, and bring a fantastic team along for the ride. It’s also more fun.
I’ve met founders who put their energy into “not getting screwed.” They obsess about dilution, giving the smallest equity grants possible when they hire people. They don’t trust investors, even ones with stellar reputations. They hire junior people who won’t challenge them, or they even try to outsource critical functions. I’ve never seen one of these founders do well.
But abundance doesn’t mean abandoning caution and being indiscriminate about who to trust and what risks to take. Abundance decisions, which usually involve who you want to invite into your startup, need to be made carefully. You need to do plenty of due diligence and take risks only when you have a good chance of getting more in return."
https://medium.com/point-nine-news/choose-abundance-fb8b7df8de17
28. The rise of Vertical SaaS.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51-lKAsrllE
29. "Emerging manager backers such as Cendana Capital and Screendoor remain supporters; joining them in Wischoff’s third fund is the foundation for Children’s Health, the Dallas-based pediatric healthcare system. There, Wischoff impressed the investment team by flying in to present in person with her young son in July, just four weeks after giving birth. “She has a really tenacious personality that she has parlayed into investing,” said Yangge Seaman, head of private investments at Children’s Health, who added she was impressed by Wischoff’s pristine founder reference calls and focus areas tied closely to her past startup experience. “There’s a lot of strategic coherence. It’s not random that she picked those areas,” Seaman added.
Wischoff’s online presence also helped. A consistent poster on X and TikTok, she’s also gone unexpectedly viral in recent years — including when she posted about closing an investment with a founder while on her honeymoon (she was bored on a cathedral tour). Last year, when Midas List investor Keith Rabois dismissed her critique of the Miami startup ecosystem as that of a “third tier VC,” the immediate blowback turned the would-be insult into an internet meme."
https://archive.ph/22TY9#selection-599.0-599.464
30. Can't wait to read his book. A discussion on where America's youth is going wrong: lazy, entitled and intolerant to disagreement.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bDiVZ7RFtU&t=1446s
31. "Much like the myth — that I first learned about in business school — that captains should grab the yoke and fly the plane alone in an emergency. It turns out that cockpit crews get far better performance by maximizing teamwork and communication in emergency situations. Coincidentally, this practice is called CRM (crew resource management).
I understand the attraction of founder mode. It sounds cool. But while it’s more romantic to imagine the founder grabbing the yoke to drive the company, it’s more effective to have a strong team working together to face challenges."
https://kellblog.com/2024/09/07/we-are-not-the-same-the-obligatory-post-on-founder-mode/
32. "So what happened between Chinese explorer Zheng He and British Captain Elliot that led to this stark reversal in supremacy? This is a fascinating point of contention among economists and historians, mainly because it begs a question that precedes the question of “Will the West continue to rule the world?” with a new question:
Does the West rule the world?
Or, in the bigger span of history, has the West stumbled into a 200-year hiccup amidst an otherwise 4000-year history of Eastern dominance?
Fun, to debate."
https://jaymartin.substack.com/p/who-is-really-in-charge
33. "If you are finding yourself squeezed for money as prices rise, realize the important fact: Prices will NOT stop rising.
You can either live extremely frugally (which in my opinion is not a great life) or you can find a way to increase your income.
Personally I much prefer the latter (even though you should manage lifestyle inflation) because there’s a limit to how much you can cut costs but no limit to how much you can make.
Pick any online business and work on it for a few years and it will set you free.
Even if you fail the first few times, the things you learn will help you in the next one (also known as falling forward).
If you think you can just focus on your wage slave job and “wait for prices to come down”, you are like the base public – delusional, ignorant, and stupid.
You have been warned."
https://lifemathmoney.com/inflation-will-come-down-does-not-mean-what-you-think/
34. "Our leaders know these taxes are unpopular and controversial. So, what better way to get the population to say yes to them than by saying, “It’ll only be for the rich?”
In fact, this is exactly how US Federal income taxes were initially proposed in 1913. The government received the American people’s acceptance of them under the guise that only citizens earning over $500,000 (more than $15.8 million USD in today’s terms) would be taxed 7% on that income.
Fast-forward to today, and all residents of the United States are taxed between 10% and 37% on everything they earn.
This is always how new taxes are pushed through. First, only for a few. Then inevitably, for all. Our governments must think we’re stupid if they believe we’ll fall for it this time.
Just as the wealthiest citizens in the time of Peter the Great could pay to avoid the beard tax, so will the ultra-rich in our societies be able to pay to escape taxes on unrealised gains when they inevitably become commonplace.
For normal people who can’t, their wealth will be slowly shaved away by the authoritarian tax enforcers of today who want to claim their profits before they even materialise."
https://anticitizen.com/p/flee-the-beard-tax
35. A very fair and solid discussion on the growing multipolar world and China's role here. And America's decline, which is for most part self inflicted.