Yudo: Lessons from The Way of the Bath
I love Japanese culture and discovering new aspects of it. I’m a big Onsen aka Hot spring fan as well. But what I love is the philosophical underpinning behind almost everything in Japan, whether it’s food, martial arts, the arts and crafts.
Japan is one of the most unique cultures in the world, it was an Island nation closed off to the rest of the world for over two thousand years until the 1600s. Yudo, or bathing culture, is an example of the unique aspects of Japanese culture and I really enjoyed the movie of the same name. It was funny but also remarkably touching.
I saw it as a fictional story version of Jiro Dreams of Sushi but around bathing culture. The Japanese search for perfection in whatever they do. One should have a philosophy of life and one should live it with purpose.
Here are some interesting thoughts I grabbed from the movie.
“Since antiquity, the Japanese people have lived in awe of nature, serving as a model for willing submission to one’s fate. And unwavering devotion to forge ahead. That is what people have called “finding the way.” The way of tea, of flower arranging, or of incense.
There is another. The way of bath, Yudo.
While the paths to perfection are many, there is no final destination point. There is only finding one’s way in daily life through assiduous practice. It is that pursuit of perfection that illuminates life itself.”
This illustrates the beauty of Japanese culture and why so many of us are entranced by Japan. But it also shows us what the path to excellence in life looks like, whatever it is that you do.
“The foundation of Japanese aesthetics is nature itself. We revere and appreciate it. We accept it as a model for how we lead our lives. Happiness is not pursued. It is realized. In the smallest pleasures lies the richness of life. That is the reason the way of the bath exists”
Yudo is about finding joy and satisfaction in the simplest things in life. Even an everyday hot bath.
“Soak in a bath, wash the heart and return to innocence. Bathing is happiness.”
Kintsugi: What is Broken Can Be Mended
It’s hard not to be depressed, distressed or weary when one looks out toward the world and news and social media.
It’s been such a rough couple years since 2020. First the pandemic and insane lockdowns, the BLM riots, a contentious election in the US. Followed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Hamas terrorist attacks in Israel Oct 7th, 2023 and the breakdown of the world into different factions. Crazy high Inflation and a strange economy where the rich get richer but where everyone else is falling behind.
Up and down stock market and mass layoffs in tech and Wall Street and now Main street.
The middle class is being crushed by technology and a new form of globalization. The populace of most countries are divided between political ideologies. Left versus right. Traditional versus Degeneration. Everyone seems insane and the world seems broken and fractured.
Many of us haven’t fully recovered from the psychological scars caused by Covid pandemic and lockdowns, especially our kids. My family and financial/business life was wrecked that cursed year of 2020.
While business-financially I’ve more than recovered, 4 years later my family life is still a mess. Especially with my beloved daughter, both being in the awkward teenage years and her lingering stress from the challenging 2020 time has strained our relationship badly. It continues to be a source of pain for both of us.
But I recently discovered a Japanese pottery style called Kintsugi. It takes broken pieces of pottery and repairs it by mending the areas of breakage with lacquer mixed with powdered silver, gold or platinum. The results are absolutely beautiful. It looks so much better than before it was broken.
It is linked to the Japanese philosophy of Wabi-Sabi: “a worldview centred on the acceptance of transience, imperfection and the beauty found in simplicity. Wabi-sabi is also an appreciation of both natural objects and the forces of nature that remind us that nothing stays the same forever.”
I’ve decided to use Kintsugi as a model for life going forward. “The Conversation” article goes on to say: “There are no attempts to hide the damage, instead, it is highlighted. The practice has come to represent the idea that beauty can be found in imperfection. The breakage is an opportunity and applying this kind of thinking to instances of failure in our own lives can be helpful.”
I believe that whatever is broken can be fixed. Especially when it’s your own fault. But like all things important it will be hard and takes immense commitment, effort and time. Commitment and effort is something I have in spades. And with some time, good results should be inevitable.
Like Kintsugi, the hope is that your breakages in life can be repaired and ultimately made even better and more beautiful with time, care and effort.
The Mongol Doctrine Part 2: Every Action Has an Opposite and Equal Reaction
I wrote in a previous post about the savagery of empire building in geopolitics and business. And as the title states there is always a counter reaction to savagery, whether from employees, competitors and other countries.
I have long deplored the weakness in the West and in most of the modern world. Cutting defense budgets, letting their militaries decline and their citizenry get complacent. But there are several countries that stand in opposition to this. Countries like South Korea, Finland, Turkey, Singapore and Poland.
No surprise, this is a direct reaction to their past history of being conquered, badly treated and despoiled by neighboring countries. Finland by Russia and Germany. South Korea by Japan & North Korea. Turkey by Greece, Bulgaria and Serbia after World War 1. Singapore by Japan in WW2 and threatened in modern times by their immediate neighbors. Poland was partitioned by Russia, Germany, Austria & Turkey multiple times.
Consequently they have developed very strong professional militaries as well as military reserves. They have it seared into their history and know really bad things happen to their people when they are invaded or conquered. I should add that the occupations by Japan, Germany and Russia tended to be particularly brutal and harsh.
This is something that seems to be forgotten by many countries in Western Europe. And I would even argue in America and Canada. I understand as many of the NATO countries including Canada are free riding on the American military and defense shield by spending below the required 2% of GDP on defense spending. The problem is America cannot be counted on as we seem to be entering a period of isolationism as the world de-globalizes and moves into a multipolar situation. Less order and more chaos.
I pray people wake up before it’s too late. The world is only becoming a scarier place. Power and strength is important. This is why bullies and criminals only prey on the weak. They know trying to tackle someone strong will cost them too much. Someone who can fight back and inflict costs back upon them. This is true at the individual level, at the company level and at the country level.
I learned this term the Mongol doctrine from a sci-fi series of Battletech, as practiced by Clan Jade Falcon. The doctrine involved the use of ostentatious violence against opposing armies and civilians alike to cow enemies into submission. Not just an eye for an eye, but 2 eyes for one of yours. A harsh and severe response to aggression against you and yours. This is the only language barbarians and criminals understand.
While I deplore violence and savagery, it’s a reality of our world. You can’t hide from it forever. And you need to be prepared to use it if someone will be coming to harm you, your family or your friends. Don’t rely on anyone else or even the police as many learned the hard way during the BLM riots in 2020 and the extreme progressive stupidity that has reigned in Blue cities of America aka LA, SF, NYC and Chicago (aka Chiraq).
Get strong. Get trained. Get rich. Get smart!
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads May 19th, 2024
“Wherever there is a human being, there is an opportunity for kindness.” — Seneca
"Transitioning from founder-led sales to a hired sales team is often a difficult process. Failure rates are high with new sales hires, and many of the lessons have to be learned over and over again.
Once product-market fit is achieved and the business is working, the next step is to hire a process-oriented sales assistant to take all the lessons learned, document them, and start mapping out the sales process. With this in place, then it’s time to hire a sales leader to build a team focused on running a scalable process and delivering results."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/04/20/from-founder-led-sales-to-a-sales-team
2. Such an excellent conversation this week. For those in venture capital, this is a must listen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lADBhTbmUQ
3. Mr Perell is a very wise young man. There is so much here. Worth listening to.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eqo-V_vMuKA
4. About time this bill got signed in the USA.
"Finally, the passing of this bill will be a considerable morale boost for Ukrainian citizens and those on the front line. As President Zelensky noted in a tweet just after the bill pased, “our warriors on the front lines, as well as our cities and villages suffering from Russian terror, will feel it.” It is a major vote of confidence in the future of Ukraine.
The passing of this bill may also prompt other nations to step up their support for Ukraine. There are multiple nations besides the U.S. that have stepped up and provided very significant amounts of aid for Ukraine, including the Baltics, Denmark, Poland, Scandanavian nations, Japan, Germany and Britain. However, some nations have been laggards, including my own country of Australia.
Hopefully this bill might prompt the government in the land down under to be a little more generous in supporting the survival of Ukraine.
But for now, the aim will be to get the aid bills back to the Senate and then signed by President Biden in the coming days.
Then the hard work of rapid delivery of aid, and the stepping up of U.S. military industrial production, begins."
https://mickryan.substack.com/p/the-ukraine-aid-bill-passes-in-the
5. Loved this conversation. All about creativity, writing and finding your own path career wise.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=udwLnrzRIVo
6. I LOVE This Show: Shogun.
"Why do you think a show about feudal Japan is really connecting with people right now?
It’s so educational. We really get to understand where Japanese people are coming from, what their history was like. It’s nothing like that right now. No one’s walking around with a sword, but it still teaches us the roots, so I’m so happy. It’s very relative, because it’s talking about politics, human relations, and understanding different cultures—things that you don’t agree with but have to accept. You can come from anywhere and still be able to relate to that. It’s fascinating."
https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/tv/a60504025/anna-sawai-shogun-mariko-interview/
7. Excellent conversation. Pomp is a friend but I learned a lot from his stories of service in Iraq. He also has a great view on business, investing & BTC and careers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ll22w3BByY8
8. "Shore Capital moves just as quickly as its founder. The health care–focused microcap investment firm sealed 801 deals from 2020 to 2023, making it one of the world’s busiest buyout shops. Its assets under management soared sevenfold to $7 billion during that period, as stellar returns convinced early investors like the University of Notre Dame and Sequoia Capital’s wealth management arm to steadily boost their commitments.
But with its 15th anniversary this year, Shore remains a minnow in the ocean of private equity—where the largest fish, such as Apollo, Blackstone and KKR, oversee more than $500 billion apiece. That’s by design. “We’ve turned away billions of dollars,” Ishbia says. “In private equity, when you’re good at your job, you raise a bigger fund. My thesis was, ‘Who stays in microcap?’ The answer is basically nobody.
STAYING SMALL is working out big time: Shore’s average internal rate of return on its 14 exits, all in health care, is 53%, net of fees. That’s nearly triple the average net IRR of U.S. buyout funds raised since 2009, according to data from Cambridge Associates. After Shore took its 20% to 30% cut of profits, its exits multiplied investors’ money by 5.5 times on average, also nearly triple the average total value to paid-in capital multiple of U.S. buyout funds raised during that period.
Shore has never unloaded a company for less than three times cost before fees, nor, it says, has it ever suffered a loss. “Those are top 1% returns in private equity,” marvels one investor who asked not to be identified, citing his organization’s press policy. “That’s rarefied air, right? That’s more like venture capital than a traditional buyout firm.””
https://archive.ph/wYUZZ#selection-691.0-695.835
9. "Gig drivers don’t face an edict for speed like past Domino’s drivers, but Wells says the requirement to be fast is built into the job, with drivers hurrying to make financial incentives, avoid bad ratings, and ensure the food is warm upon delivery.
“Your livelihood depends on you getting somewhere and getting there fast,” she says.
That kind of motivation can be dangerous.
When Behrend was preparing his Domino’s case, he remembers speaking to behavioral scientists who explained that delivery drivers stressed by time constraints get a form of tunnel vision. They focus on their destination and less on the world around them, leaving themselves and everyone else vulnerable, because they must arrive a little bit faster.
The 30-minute guarantee may have ended decades ago. But its legacy lives on. "
https://thehustle.co/originals/the-failure-of-the-dominos-30-minute-delivery-guarantee
10. "The show, called “In Good Company,” is the brainchild of Nicolai Tangen, a 57-year-old native Norwegian and former London hedge-fund manager who in 2020 was named CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management. That is the arm of the Norwegian central bank operating what is known as the oil fund, enriched by the nation’s vast oil and gas revenues.
The fund has never been bigger than it is this year, at around $1.6 trillion. But Tangen felt the fund—and the people running it—could be better understood by the public.
“We aim to be the most transparent fund in the world. It struck me that the real transparency here would be to show the Norwegian people what they own,” Tangen said in an interview. “I thought, you know, we own all these companies, we own big stakes, we actually have access to these CEOs.”
Each show featuring a corporate leader at the microphone typically begins by noting the number of shares the Norwegian fund owns of that company, along with the often eye-popping value of that investment. ($5 billion of Exxon shares, $4 billion of Nvidia, $2.2 billion of Disney, etc.)"
https://archive.ph/eHeIC#selection-2555.0-2591.7
11. I like Justin Waller. He is a good man.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MaekT0Dl1x4
12. "That disbelief was the very reason I’d been keen to study Traba, after hearing CEO Mike Shebat on a podcast. Speaking to 20VC’s Harry Stebbings, Shebat had proudly championed his startup’s long hours, “Olympian” work ethic, and mission to build a $1 trillion business. Despite having no previous interest in Traba’s market of light industrial staffing nor familiarity with Shebat’s career, I found myself intrigued by his rhetoric. He was saying something profoundly obvious in one respect – that building an extraordinary company takes extraordinary work – but also transgressive. There are few more efficient routes to an internet argument than to eulogize the 80-hour week.
Traba is taking a different approach. While peers and forebearers emulate the decadence of a banal, patronizing Rome, Shebat is aiming for something closer to Sparta. Intensity, effort, sweat – these are not the unsavory byproducts of building a company; they are the end, in and of themselves. “The purpose of life is to be defeated by greater and greater things,” the poet Ranier Marie Rilke wrote. Above all, this seems to be Traba’s pitch: tech’s best talent wants a mountain to climb, not a nap pod."
https://thegeneralist.substack.com/p/traba
13. This is a masterclass in writing and storytelling from 2 masters. What a great conversation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2BnqYArwaw
14. "Russia’s influence in its immediate neighborhood has been diminishing, too. The bulk of non-Russians in the former Soviet borderlands want less and less to do with their former overlord and certainly do not want to be reabsorbed by it. Armenians are embittered, Kazakhs are wary, and Belarusians are trapped and unhappy about it.
Eurasianism and Slavophilism are mostly dead letters: the overwhelming majority of the world’s non-Russian Slavs joined or are clamoring to join the European Union and NATO. Without Russia menacing its European neighbors, NATO’s reason for being becomes uncertain. But that means Russia could break NATO only by developing into a durable rule-of-law state, precisely what Putin resists with all his being.
Russia’s basic grand strategy appears simple: vastly overinvest in the military, roguish capabilities, and the secret police, and try to subvert the West. No matter how dire its strategic position gets, and it is often dire, Russia can muddle through, as long as the West weakens, too.
Peace comes through strength, combined with skillful diplomacy. The United States must maintain concerted pressure on Russia while also offering incentives for Moscow to retrench. That means creating leverage through next-generation military tools but also pursuing negotiations in close cooperation with U.S. allies and partners and aided by so-called Track II exchanges among influential but nongovernmental figures."
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/five-futures-russia-stephen-kotkin
15. Crypto Hayes on Global Macro. A long but valuable discussion to prepare for your financial future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hozhK-NKkQo
16. Italian Badasses of WW1. The Arditi.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlMJ7HImSck
17. Top conversation between two of the most interesting people on the internet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ql8aB0tqC0o
18. "So if you are a founder worried you’ve missed the window, don’t. It’s a land grab right now, but a single research paper can mean the difference between [not at all useful] to [useful] and therefore a new opportunity unlock. Obvious in hindsight, but tricky timing to predict. It's going to be an exciting (and wild) few years."
https://www.sarahtavel.com/p/rolling-thunder-of-ai-opportunities
19. This is a must listen to for anyone B2B founder. How to figure out Product Market Fit. One of the best frameworks I've seen in a while.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yc1Uwhfxacs&t=1545s
20. "U.S. officials are worried that their hopes of developing a green industrial base will be derailed by China. This is not an unreasonable concern, but the current focus on looming “overcapacity” in green tech (and other sectors) is both confusing and unhelpful.
Instead, the focus should be on underconsumption—both in China, and elsewhere—which is what actually threatens the viability of the green transition, as well as global economic and financial stability."
https://theovershoot.co/p/chinese-overcapacity-is-not-the-problem
21. Always an excellent conversation between two high performers in business and life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axE2Ef8_lbI
22. What a surprise, cultural clashes at the TSMC plant in Arizona.
"The American engineers complained of rigid, counterproductive hierarchies at the company; Taiwanese TSMC veterans described their American counterparts as lacking the kind of dedication and obedience they believe to be the foundation of their company’s world-leading success.
Some 2,200 employees now work at TSMC’s Arizona plant, with about half of them deployed from Taiwan. While tension at the plant simmers, TSMC has been ramping up its investments, recently securing billions of dollars in grants and loans from the U.S. government. Whether or not the plant succeeds in making cutting-edge chips with the same speed, efficiency, and profitability as facilities in Asia remains to be seen, with many skeptical about a U.S. workforce under TSMC’s army-like command system. “[The company] tried to make Arizona Taiwanese,” G. Dan Hutcheson, a semiconductor industry analyst at the research firm TechInsights, told Rest of World. “And it’s just not going to work.”
TSMC insiders told Rest of World the key to the company’s success is an intense, military-style work environment. Engineers work 12-hour days, and sometimes weekends too. Taiwanese commentators joke that the company runs on engineers with “slave mentalities” who “sell their livers” — local slang that underscores the intensity of the work.”
https://restofworld.org/2024/tsmc-arizona-expansion/
23. So many good takes on startups and entrepreneurship from Greg Isenberg. Lots of advantages of studios and multi-preneurship.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylT8SYsdrsg
24. "I sometimes catch myself thinking like a beta cuck loser. And when I do, I must remind myself of the overarching macro theme that the entire retail and institutional investing world is starting to believe. That is, all the major economic blocs (US, China, European Union “EU” and Japan) are debasing their currencies to deleverage their government’s balance sheet. Now that TradFi has a direct way to profit off of this narrative via US and soon-to-be UK and Hong Kong spot Bitcoin ETFs, they are pushing their clients to preserve the energy purchasing power of their wealth using these crypto-derivative products.
As explained above, the political situation in the US gives me extreme confidence that the money printer will go Brrrr. If you thought it was absurd what the US monetary and political elite did to “solve” the 2008 GFC and COVID, you ain’t seen nothing yet.
The wars on the Pax Americana periphery continue to chug along primarily in the Ukraine / Russia and Israel / Iran theatres. As expected, the warmongers from both political parties are content to continue funding their proxies with borrowed billions of cash money. The cost will only increase as the conflicts escalate and more countries are drawn into the melee.
Calling all degens to the Left Curve. Your hunch that money printing will accelerate as politicians spend money on handouts and wars is correct. Do not underestimate the desire to remain in office of the incumbent elites. If real rates become positive, then re-assess your crypto conviction. But until that time, let your winners run, you glorious degenerate piece of shit."
https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/left-curve
25. Instructive discussion on how to do outbound sales in startups. Worth watching several times.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PStlYeAc_zQ
26. No exits, no VCs in the long run.
https://www.axios.com/2024/04/24/venture-capital-vc-fund-advice
27. This came at the right moment for me. Listening to Justin Waller is always helpful, more so today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4JSWTyEZxbA&t=3741s
28. "A Ukrainian army that is resupplied with air defence and artillery munitions, and with the increase in morale that has accompanied the U.S aid bill approval, will make any expansion in Russian offensive operations in the coming months very difficult indeed.
The new ATACMs are an important new capability for the Ukrainians. It enhances their capacity for operational strike and complicates ground and air defence operations for the Russians.
But, like all weapons, the new, longer range ATACMS are no silver bullet. They will be an important component in Ukraine’s operational strike capability but will need to be used judiciously to ensure their best effect and to slow Russian adaptation to them.
While the Russians may eventually adapt to the impact of these weapons, as they have shown in the wake of new weapons being introduced, they are an important capability for Ukraine."
https://mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraine-gets-long-range-atacms
29. "This is all good news for founders & users : more models, more choice, better performance across domains, lower costs for training, tuning, & inference. If the recent weeks are any indication, we should expect further flurries of advances & specialization."
https://tomtunguz.com/snowflake-arctic-model/
30. "Anyway, I thought an analogy of why we should be concerned my nerd friends would easily understand is The Borg from Star Trek. They represent a metaphor for what authoritarian far left state control might look like (with a technocratic flavor, on brand for modernity). In a Borg world, you will own nothing and you will be happy.
The Borg's relentless pursuit of assimilation mirrors the totalitarian nature of communist regimes, where dissent and individuality are taken away in favor of conformity to the collective ideology. Just as the Borg assimilate other species into their hive mind, communist regimes seek to assimilate diverse cultures and beliefs into a homogeneous state-controlled system. Dissidents are quickly stamped out or locked away if assimilation is not possible."
https://www.hottakes.space/p/do-not-be-assimilated-star-treks
31. "No tranche of weapons can give Ukraine an easy path to victory—defined as the expulsion of all Russian troops from Ukrainian territory, or the achievement of a position from which to negotiate a full Russian withdrawal. (And the gratuitous delay in U.S. aid has undoubtedly made this path more difficult.)
From the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine in February 2022, reporting on the Ukrainian war effort has whiplashed between pessimistic and optimistic narratives: Ukraine is doomed! No, Ukraine is beating Russia! No, Russia is winning after all! We have now been in a pessimistic phase for the last five or six months, coinciding with the standoff over aid to Ukraine in Congress. But while sober realism is warranted, defeatism is not."
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/the-ukraine-war-outlook-a-candid-assessment
32. "Asia is a place where the U.S. is both badly needed, and in a position to do a lot of good, by helping democratic nations remain independent of an expansionist superpower. The Middle East is an increasingly irrelevant quagmire — a violent region with little to offer and little hope of resolution.
The days when the U.S. was powerful enough to defend the entire world at once are long gone. Now we have a choice of whether to stretch ourselves to the breaking point in the hopes that we can somehow bluff our way through all the conflicts at once, or to refocus our hard power on the points of maximum leverage in the defense of global liberal democracy. That doesn’t seem like a difficult choice.
So those are the five things I think the U.S. needs to do in order to bolster both its own security and the security of its allies, in the wake of the recent breakthrough on national security legislation. They are all difficult tasks that will require both sustained political will and delicate, skilled management. But I believe they are all within the realm of the possible."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/what-america-needs-to-do-now-on-national
33. "If an expert would see a few hundred examples of something in their career, an eager novice with AI is now able to process 1,000. It might be the closest we’ve ever been to true democratization of information. At what point does a novice who is willing to use AI start to overtake an expert who resists?
Studies show that AI improves performance by 43 percent for the least-skilled workers, compared to only 17 percent improvement for the most skilled. There now might only be a 5 percent gap between novices and experts. Some specialties will be safer than others, but in others, experts might not be able to command as high a premium.
Luck will continue to play a factor, but sustained differences in outcomes will be defined by good judgment, strong character, and excellent taste. Atomic Habits wasn’t guaranteed to be successful just because it had a great title and drew from the best sources. It still had to be a good, well-written book, drawn from Clear’s own life. Clear directly practiced everything he wrote about, modifying the book as he integrated its advice into his life, giving relatable anecdotes throughout. It is real human experience that will remain valuable in the future, not expertise."
https://every.to/p/how-to-become-an-expert-at-anything-with-ai
34. Another great discussion on the news from the edge of the internet and popular culture.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzS8gsOtR9c&t=37s
35. "No one should expect a Russian collapse overnight. Even the most optimistic scenarios for Ukraine envision a long and costly war of attrition. Unfortunately, the lengthy and agonizingly difficult process of passing this aid bill suggests Washington may not be so patient.
If the new aid allows Ukraine merely to preserve a new stalemate on the battlefield rather than make significant gains, international pressure on Kyiv to negotiate with Moscow may grow more prominent. Ukrainian leaders will counter that they have no reason to trust that Russia will honor such a settlement.
As for Russia’s own calculations, the passage of the aid bill was an important signal to President Vladimir Putin that there’s still strong political support for Ukraine in the United States, even if it’s not quite as robust as it was two years ago. Of course, that could all change next year if former President Donald Trump, who would likely pressure Ukraine to give up territory to end the war, returns to the White House.
Ukraine and its allies have been reaching out to Trump and his allies in hopes of hedging their bets, and in a slightly positive sign for Kyiv, Trump ended up backing the new aid package after it was structured as a loan rather than a grant, an idea he had floated earlier.
But it’s safe to say that leaders in both Kyiv and Moscow will have to continue keeping one eye on America’s political climate even as they plot their next moves on the battlefield."
https://www.vox.com/2024/4/24/24138541/ukraine-russia-us-aid-congress
Hearts on Fire: Concept of Aliveness
I heard this term and concept on a podcast interview with David Perell. I love this idea of “hearts on fire”. Aliveness. Similar to Samo Burja’s “Live Player” which I wrote about earlier: defined as “a person able to do things they have not been able to do before.”
Basically, people who live with creativity and who can make something new. Someone with purpose. This is the reason they seem so animated. Excited. Alive. You feel energized talking with them.
But most people we meet are the opposite of this. They take your energy. You feel drained after spending time with them.
It’s because most people you meet are living broken societal scripts. Unhappy. Barely getting by. Unoriginal. Unthinking. They are zombies or lichs (archaic English form for “Corpse”). Not yet dead but not alive either. Going through the motions of life. Blind on remote control. Comfortable but unchallenged. Following, not leading.
What does it take to break out and become alive? To find their purpose and authenticity. 3 very simple things: Honesty, Courage and faith.
Honesty about your feelings and reality. How about how unhappy you really are and how much your life sucks because of your own choices
Courage to take action and do something about. Even if it goes against what society, friends and family tell you. Gain a Willingness to fix and upturn the scripts in your head.
Faith that you will figure it out eventually and that you can deal with the inevitable challenges that come up.
This is how you get to live a life worth living.
Learning from the Midwit Curve: The Majority is Usually Wrong
There is the funny Midwit Curve we’ve all seen before on X formerly known as Twitter.
https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/iq-bell-curve-midwit/photos
I especially like this one: https://twitter.com/lawrencekingyo/status/1686004413666607104/photo/1
It’s a bell shaped curve where the majority is in the middle. Most people are “Midwits” in some form or other. But that is usually not where excellence or innovation happens. It’s the people at the edges that actually make sense or are right.
As Codie Sanchez says: “Excellence comes from deviance.” Reality is that the results are very binary as you will either be really right! Or really, really wrong. And that’s okay. As I’ve learned in venture capital, when you are right, it more than makes up for the loss.
When something seems stupid, unbelievable, too obvious or even like a conspiracy theory you might be onto something. Everything that was a major company now was laughed at in the early days. Companies we all know of like AirBnB or Stripe or Carta.
All my best investments were non-obvious and contentious. It’s why the billionaire investor Peter Thiel asks the question: “What revolutionary truth do you know that no one else agrees with?” Basically, what is your secret? It helps you surface overlooked ideas, beliefs or insights. Things that are not commonly known or understood by the mainstream yet. This is your edge.
As Mark Twain famously said: “Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.”
The Mongol Doctrine: Savagery Works and the Hard Lessons of History
I listened to Joe Rogan discussing Dan Carlin's excellent podcast on Genghis Khan and the establishment of the incredible Mongol empire. So many people were killed that the carbon footprint was reduced by 10 percent. Basically they killed 10% of the world’s population. 40 million people. A very distant descendent, Tamerlane took a stab at this horrific record by doing the same thing hundreds of years later, killing 5% of the world's population.
Unfathomable today as this carnage was mainly done with blade, spear and hand to hand violence unlike in our modern day industrial age of bullets and missiles.
So why do I recount this gruesome history? Well it’s the history of man and empires. People are brutal and ruthless and those who birth empires are even more so. It’s relevant to our modern day age. We see this at geopolitical level and even our business level. And there is no place in the world where empire builders thrive like America.
Quoting fictional media tycoon Logan Roy of the dark business drama “Succession”:
“I don't like being outside the U.S. for too long. There's a mercilessness I miss. Yeah, living with the safety catch off, f-cking without a rubber. Everywhere else feels so soft.”
Reality provides its own characters. Bill Gates, aka Saint Bill of philanthropist fame was incredibly ruthless when he ran Microsoft, he crushed competitors completely. The line of companies he destroyed is a very long one. Long enough that Microsoft fell under Antitrust investigation by the US government.
People forgot how brutal old business tycoons were. Folks like John D Rockefeller of Standard Oil, Andrew Carnegie of Carnegie Steel, JP Morgan, Jay Gould, Henry Ford. All pretty awful humans who built massive empires.
In our modern day we have Larry Ellison of Oracle, Marc Benioff of Salesforce, Sam Altman of OpenAI, Peter Thiel and his PayPal mafia. All brilliant business people. Yet no one should make the mistake of crossing these people.
I’ve been reading about Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Hedge fund fame. The world’s biggest hedge fund. I loved his books “Principles” and “The Changing World Order” and listened to many of his podcast interviews. He comes across as this wise, kind older intellectual sharing his wisdom.
But in the book “The Fund”, he comes across as an egotistical, narcissistic and overall horrible human being who bullies and runs roughshod over his staff. A cult leader in all but name. I know of the anti-business and anti-rich tendency of the media and society but if even 1/10th of the stories are true Dalio is not a man worthy of following.
Reality is there are very few saints out there. As Tai Lopez says: “Empires are built on blood, sweat and violence”. Even in the technology industry in Silicon Valley. In general, it’s a meritocracy and people tend to be more win-win and abundance minded.
Like everywhere, there is a dark side very few people see or talk about. I’ve also seen some pretty awful things while working here. I’m not perfect either and have done some things I’m not always proud of. I acknowledge this. I do wonder sometimes if I would have been more successful if I was more ruthless and vicious. But I have some lines I can’t cross and a code I follow. I prefer to sleep well at night.
Business empires are started and run by people. And people by nature are flawed. But that does not mean we can’t try to aspire to be and do better. Especially if you are trying to play the long game.
But we all need to be aware that there are those ruthless and even sociopathic people out there. And that is why you need to become strong, rich and self sufficient yourself to counterbalance these people. Evil wins when the good people do nothing.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads May 12th, 2024
“Be kind whenever possible. It is always possible.” — Dalai Lama
Jim Rogers is an international investing legend. I've been learning from him for 30 years now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlno_fb1m1Q
2. Lots of good insights here. Input versus output driven strategies in VC. Always some new frameworks to learn.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7n_LGvdcTo
3. "In a long conventional war, production really matters. And China has, since the turn of the century, become by far the world’s biggest producer. Even before the current massive splurge of production, China was the world’s largest manufacturer by far, making as much physical stuff as the U.S. and all of Europe combined.
The country’s current effort to increase that share even further threatens to make China the “make-everything country” in reality, turning the rest of the world into a de-industrialized hinterland. If that happens, the democracies’ edges in technology and training will prove short-lived, and they will likely lose a long war unless they can very rapidly remember how to make physical goods en masse.
In a post two years ago, I tried to illustrate the sheer size of the challenge that the U.S. and its allies are facing. It’s something we need to be taking very seriously. Anyone who scoffs at industrial policy or the idea of bringing back manufacturing in the U.S. and Europe needs to be able to answer the questions raised by this post."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/sizing-up-the-new-axis
4. "So from the perspective of dealing out a painful reprisal to Israel (for its attack on Iranian military officers in Damascus) this massive attack fell flat which is a relief for not just Israel, but the entire world as it translates into a possibly more muted response, but more on that later. The other key thing is that an international coalition worked together quickly with a number of Arab states lining up behind Israel. It proves the thesis that the Middle East is getting more and more aligned to act against Iran’s aggression which has been the root of the region’s instability."
https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/dont-yet-they-did
5. No wonder chocolate has become so much more expensive.
https://thehustle.co/originals/why-chocolate-is-skyrocketing-in-price
6. "Hype is a physical force that deserves a place on the periodic table. The global social and economic impacts hype can have are just as powerful as oxygen or hydrogen. But just as the elements are natural forces that we can bend to our will, hype is something we all ought to have a better grasp on.
Hype comes and goes. Stories wax and wane in people's minds. Conviction, true conviction, is not born of consent.
Conviction born from the draw of hype is rarely built to stand the test of time.
Investments made in the peak of hype rarely turn out to be the best mechanisms to compound capital.
Careers bred in the throes of hype are rarely anchored in fundamental truths.
People need to understand the sine waves of hype as the energy around a category inflates and deflates. Some, like meal kits or micro mobility, were maybe never going to persist. Others, like crypto and VR, are simply being forged in the fires of hype inflation and deflation.
The most important lesson, I think, is for more people to try and build things because they believe they are true. Because they're based on true principles. Critics and champions will come and go. But conviction, banked and cooled by belief and pragmatic evaluation, can be unstoppable."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/hype-deflation-and-inflation
7. "In the end, this quest for a moral billionaire forced me to confront my own beliefs about wealth, power, and the nature of goodness in a complex world. I finished the exercise with hope—not because I found a simple answer to the question of what it means to be both wealthy and virtuous, but because I have discovered that even among the most powerful, there are those who strive to make a positive difference. While money corrupts, it does not corrupt absolutely.
Even within a system that often rewards greed and self-interest, there is room for those who choose to prioritize the greater good. And that, in itself, is a reason for hope."
https://every.to/napkin-math/can-the-truly-moral-billionaire-please-stand-up
8. "Previous eras of creativity have mostly looked a bit like sculpting. A sculptor takes a block of material and carves it, slowly but surely, into shape. Nothing happens without her hand. Even when an assistant is involved, the sculptor pores over the project, because their human input is important at every point of the process. So too with writing, or programming, or painting.
This era of creativity is going to look more like gardening. A gardener doesn’t grow plants directly. Instead, she sets up the conditions for the garden to grow. She takes care of the soil, the water, and the sunlight—and lets the plants do their thing.
So too with AI. As more of our time is spent being model managers, we won’t be directly making as much creative work. That’s like pulling up a plant to help it grow. Instead, we’ll be creating optimal conditions and letting the models do their work.
There’s one difference, though. A gardener can’t directly modify her plants. She can’t change their DNA by hand. But a skilled model manager can take any output of a model—sentence, code, image, or video—and modify any part of it themselves.
So we won’t have to leave sculpting behind as a creative skill. We’ll just be able to use our chisels and hammers more judiciously—and only when it really matters."
https://every.to/chain-of-thought/capability-blindness-and-the-future-of-creativity
9. "We lose more than we win. Everything takes time. Our hopes get shattered in thousands pieces, but we remain eternally optimistic and excited, we rise to try again cause it’s not about the destination, it’s about the journey."
https://2lr.substack.com/p/clear-eyes-full-heart
10. One of the key people in the center of Silicon Valley for the last 2 decades: Sam Altman
"In the right place at the right time. Seemingly endlessly well-connected. Fast-moving and decisive. Founders backed by Altman echo such observations of the OpenAI CEO, who has become increasingly a household name since the rise of ChatGPT in late 2022 and the explosion of interest around generative AI. Altman has little time for startups these days, he told Forbes recently. But he remains at the top of cap table wish lists for the cachet and such ‘in case of emergency, break glass’ situations.
Altman’s investment portfolio appears to have been modeled off an appreciation of that approach: a bifurcated strategy of smaller, speculative bets mixed with several highly-concentrated, larger positions where he keeps much of his wealth. One can lead to the other, as was the case with Reddit, in which Altman and Hydrazine led a $50 million funding round in 2014 and Altman took a board director seat. He continued to invest in subsequent rounds for the next seven years; he and his funds now control a stake worth $580 million as of market close on April 5, though only an estimated 14% is part of Altman’s personal wealth — the rest belong to the funds’ other investors, filings indicate. (Altman’s second Hydrazine fund holds the bulk of it: $470 million in shares, close to half of the fund’s entire gross asset value, according to filings.)
Another big position is believed to be Stripe, Altman’s self-described highest-performing investment, which reached a $95 billion valuation in 2021 and more recently announced a tender offer for employees at a $65 billion valuation in February. In 2020 and 2021, as Stripe’s value soared, Altman shelled out $43 million for a Hawaii mansion, and $27 million for an upgraded San Francisco house. Guests at Altman’s 950-acre Napa ranch purchased in December 2020 have jokingly called it “the house that Stripe built,” a source with knowledge told Forbes."
“Sam is rare in that he’s a capable investor, but he’s also making bold bets,” says Reid Hoffman, the LinkedIn cofounder and former longtime OpenAI board director. “A lot of investors are fearful of failing. They invest in things that will make money, but aren’t going to be potential big public failures. Sam is very comfortable with taking the big bet.”
And it’s those investments, not $80-billion-plus valued OpenAI — in which he has consistently asserted he holds no equity — that land Altman on this year’s Forbes list of the world’s richest people for the first time."
https://archive.ph/gSBCV#selection-997.0-1015.7
11. Garry Tan is doing God’s work. San Francisco is a better place with him here. He puts money where his mouth is and works actively to improve things instead of checking out like so many other well off tech people. He is also a great investor to boot & someone I admire & like.
"Though he plays the angry guy on X, Mr. Tan said he was optimistic about the future of the city. He said he thought the fast-growing artificial intelligence industry, centered in San Francisco, would hasten the city’s revival.
He recently moved Y Combinator from Mountain View to within the city limits and just a couple of miles from its struggling downtown. He presses the founders of start-ups accepted into the Y Combinator program to live in San Francisco because he thinks proximity to one another is so essential — and because it’s a boon to the city he loves.
“This is our oil. This is our industry,” he said. “Hollywood has movies. New York has finance. San Francisco has building the technology that billions of people use.”
He thinks moderate Democrats with common-sense ideas are taking back their city, and he’s supporting centrists on the November ballot in hopes they will seize a majority of the board of supervisors."
https://archive.ph/bMzSQ#selection-1183.0-1203.198
12. I enjoyed this interview. Joules, ex-military, now business man and gentleman.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIkryJeK81k
13. This is a great interview, learning about how to manage others better and also how to manage yourself better.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHCtb80SUHQ
14. Seems to me a situation of lesser of evils, geopolitically. Vietnam over China. Or the enemy of my enemy is at least not my enemy.
"Today, countering Beijing’s regional assertiveness takes precedence for the U.S. Yet Lan’s fate shows that China and Vietnam remain at their core very similar beasts. On Thursday, more than 60 human rights and environmental rights organizations wrote a letter to Apple to highlight the Sept. 15 detention of Ngo Thi To Nhien, the executive director of the Vietnam Initiative for Energy Transition, an independent think tank focused on green energy policy—the latest in an ongoing crackdown on environmentalists.
“All these companies say they are ‘de-risking’ their supply chains by moving out of China to Vietnam,” says Phil Robertson, deputy Asia director for Human Rights Watch. “But what are they really supporting? Companies with very fancy codes of conduct are investing in a country where human rights abuses are systematic and pervasive.” Lan’s case shows that while America’s rivals have changed, Vietnam’s autocracy remains distinctly unruffled."
https://time.com/6966231/truong-my-lan-death-sentence-vietnam-corruption-business/
15. Loved this discussion on the art and science of venture capital at the seed stage.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8NkdLhkA10
16. Great overview on the tech opportunities that exist in Vietnam. As an outside observer, the signs are bullish on the country both from a global macro perspective as well as startup one.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lessons-from-new-vietnam-christopher-m-schroeder-jylwe/
17. "Do you think AI tech will stop getting better and better simply because it’s making you anxious? Hell no. No one cares about your “AI Anxiety”.
This is a train coming at full speed.
No government or anyone else can stop it or legislate it away.
Learn to use the tool so you don’t get replaced by the tool.
Most people are so far behind that they haven’t even used free tools like ChatGPT yet.
And ChatGPT just generates text.
Most aren’t even aware of AI video and audio capabilities.
Check this to see some videos that were generated by AI using a single prompt.
If you haven’t been following AI, prepare to be completely shocked and have your mind blown.
It will keep getting better and better."
https://lifemathmoney.com/will-ai-take-away-jobs-and-how-ai-will-change-the-future-of-work/
18. Jason Lemkin is the best. I always learn stuff when I listen to him. I also appreciate his directness and honesty.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYmNgzXxkWo
19. The ultimate global value investor. I've been following Jim Rogers since I was a kid.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75OIolX4r0s
20. Solid conversation on how to evaluate and analyze civilizations & society. What makes an effective society and institution?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kw74a1dPEJQ&t=11s
21. All Saas founders need to listen to this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81fWi9hk0Sw&t=1308s
22. Jeremy Giffon, a young brilliant deal master.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mt8rCc4u_Gs
23. Lots of good nuggets of wisdom here. Here are some I liked specifically.
1. "Spending an extended period of time in another country, ideally one where people don’t speak your language expands your horizons in multiple ways.
You become a traveler instead of a tourist, and you discover things you wouldn’t otherwise.
You see the difference between being on vacation somewhere and living there.
You’re forced to learn the language and get out of your comfort zone.
There’s also no itinerary- just a series of potential adventures waiting to unfold, and stories waiting to be told
But more than anything, spending an extended period of time in another country makes you see that your own is not the center of the universe. There’s a whole world of opportunities, people and experiences beyond the borders and boundaries of where you live.
2. "At some point in your life, you have to accept the reality of dreams that won’t come true. If you accept whatever it is you don’t want, but can’t change, it loses its power over you. Paradoxically, you might end up getting what you want."
3. "The more you expect from life, the more it disappoints you. The less you expect, the more it delights you. Whenever I’ve expected nothing from creative endeavors, dates, and almost every other situation in my life, I’m always pleasantly surprised. It’s better to be pleasantly surprised than unpleasantly blind sided . And one way to avoid the latter is by lowering your expectations."
https://medium.com/@skooloflife/46-reflections-on-a-life-a-half-over-367c495b1484
24. 2 of my business heroes. I love how they both carved out very unique business paths and intertwined interesting life paths.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgH0d5TWeWc
25. Must listen to interview with Sam Altman and Brad Lightcap. This is great to understand what’s happening in world of AI.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8T1O81W96Y
26. One of the most underrated and quiet VC funds and Fund of Funds around: Hummingbird. Lots of interesting insights here like Good founders reference badly. Size of fund matters & small funds rule.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmRynLYrDkA
27. Interesting discussion with ramifications for AI. Inference versus training infrastructure. Groq versus Nvidia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UneoszmxRGg
28. Europe finally waking and stepping up for Ukraine while America supplies embarrassingly falters. I hope it's not too late to properly support Ukraine against Russian invasion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZ4ZXeQ4-V0
29. "Russia has massively scaled up drone production to supply its troops on the front with as many as possible. This only highlights the importance of supplying Ukraine with more air defense systems to protect the Ukrainian military and civilians alike from Russian drone attacks."
https://kyivindependent.com/opinion-a-look-at-the-drone-arsenal-russia-uses-against-ukraine/
30. Latest from the edge of the internet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2YI_wdO_hE
31. "If we’re measuring velocity in days or weeks, it might seem obvious to directly tie a startup’s velocity to the number of hours you work each day. But startup velocity is far more than just hours worked (a nuance that many adherents to startup “hustle” culture get wrong). Velocity is not only about how hard you work, it’s about how you work.
At a fundamental level, startup velocity is a measure of a company’s sense of urgency."
https://chrisneumann.com/archives/velocity-one-metric-that-matters-most
32. PE for SMB and crushing it. Shore Capital.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeOVMp8ytr4
33. Title says it all. Investing in an age of conflict. Not the world I want but it is the one we are in.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHqYutwvOGk
34. One of the best conversations on what’s happening in the tech industry by two legendary SV investors.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4BQCaVMjg4
35. How India meets its amazing potential geo politically and economically. Future superpower.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GbsYh2kx7Y&t=1s
36. My new favorite insider conversation about Silicon Valley news and topics around.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PrcJF0dmLM&t=972s
37. "Nation-States and Non-State actors have realized that Total War or even Guerrilla War ala the GWOT is unsustainable and ineffective. Ukraine is in stalemate and terrorism is a multigenerational strategy.
What is effective, however, is attacks from the shadows. Deniability is the new stealth. For retaliation can only occur if one has proof. Else it is “unwarranted”. This is the major differentiation between what people call the 4th Generation of Warfare and the 5th Generation of Warfare. It goes militaries beyond borders and into complete deniable operations.
Now the threats are more numerous and the weapons democratized. The attacks come from everywhere. The next attack is just as likely to come from a State as it is a mischievous angry teenager.
The West is not proactive anymore, it is reactive.
The surface area of the Western Order is too large to defend from the vectors of attack. In a philosophical sense the West must decide what encapsulates the West and defend that for a chance to survive. Else it will die by Lingchi — colloquially known as death by a thousand cuts.
The West due to leadership, capability and lack of foresight has lost its grip upon the International Order. As a result we have seen the ensuing chaos over the past several years.
This isn’t just an “American” problem it is everyone…
Now that the chaos has started to spiral there is no stopping it.
Regionality of Power will enter primacy once more.
Our Global Peace has ended
And in its ashes a new World"
https://mercurial.substack.com/p/systems-disruption
38. "Cash is king. You want to give me money, I’ll take it. As long as there are no strings attached. Startups get in trouble when they draw-and-quarter themselves by selling roadmap (i.e., non-existing) features to a diverse set of customers.
That’s why you should define strategic revenue (e.g., in the first three ICP rings) vs. opportunistic revenue and then religiously enforce this rule: if it’s oportunistic revenue you have to sell what’s on the truck. Don’t even bother asking for roadmap commitments. Maybe give those sellers lower quotas in return. But don’t let them ruin your future by selling your scarcest resource, R&D capacity, for non-strategic purposes."
https://kellblog.com/2024/04/19/how-to-detect-if-your-startup-has-a-faux-focus/
39. "I had my first child at 42, and it changed my life. I became more responsible, focused, concerned about the future, and empathetic. In sum, I became a better American. Children make us better. We care for our kids, but do we love children? Somewhere along the way, we lost the script as a society. If we have the resources to address these issues — and we do: Nvidia added a quarter of a trillion to the economy in 5 minutes post-earnings — but continue to look the other way, then we have to ask: Is America worth investing in? And do we really love our children?"
https://www.profgalloway.com/war-on-the-young/
40. I always enjoy this kind of conversation. A good rundown of the big players around the world geopolitically.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEQPbokAh2o
41. "Do you think Mr. Beast himself is out there watching videos like 100 MILLION ORBEEZ IN A SWIMMING POOL?
No.
He’s a producer, not a consumer. He’s PRODUCING content, not consuming content.
As a result, the wealth of the masses ends up in his pockets.
Money flows from consumers to producers."
The Value of Unstructured Empty Time in Your Life
I have a hard time with an empty, unscheduled day. I’ve been taught to always be busy. It was how I grew up and how I built my career, working my ass off. I feel guilty when I don’t do anything.
But I always remind myself to think about Naval Ravikant’s quote "Creativity starts with an empty calendar and ends with a full one."
I keep harping on this point but it’s so important for one’s mental health and productivity.
I try to keep at least 2-3 days a week with a completely empty calendar. During these days I just chill and do whatever I feel like. Watch Netflix or videos on YouTube, read a book or surf the Internet. Maybe I’ll write or do some errands or chores. The day is totally free to do whatever I want.
The reality as an investor and business owner, I’m always thinking of my business and my investments anyways, at least in the back of your head. But I’m in the creative business so mindlessly grinding away at it is not always the best way forward. Especially when my work is about innovation and insight. It’s not a factory or manual labor job which is about straight up direct inputs and outputs.
I’m an introvert, so this solitary time is especially effective and appealing to me. But this is important for both introverts and extroverts who are in the creative business and especially entrepreneurs.
Yes, sometimes you have to grind things out and put in the hours. But remember that breakthrough ideas and insights happen in unstructured relaxing time.
This pacing is important and you should remember that it’s a marathon not a sprint.
Too Much of A Good Thing: Drawbacks of a Life of Excess & Why Constraints Are Good for You
I recall my stay in Taiwan in the summer of 2023. It was a rough summer on the family side so I retreated into a lot of good food. I also love the delicious tea drinks that Taiwan is renowned for around the world. It got so bad I was ordering 6-8 orders of oolong, green tea, passion fruit tea, orange tea like every day. For myself!
And as they say, too much of a good thing becomes a bad thing. I end up not enjoying it as much when it’s so easily accessible or just normal. It’s like when you have too much Vitamin C or D, that it becomes toxic to your body.
I tend to go pretty extreme in life as my family knows. It’s one of my best and worst traits.
I gorge myself on amazing food when I am in Japan or Taiwan or really anywhere I visit.
I have way too many books. Like literally 20,000 books at least, so many that I pay for storage and cannot ever read in my lifetime, although I will make an attempt to do so. That is why I am called the ultimate Tsundoku, Japanese term for a person who acquires reading materials but lets them pile up in one's home without reading them.
I travel far too much in my goal to join the Centurion club which are people who have visited at least 100 countries. I’ve now visited 74 countries as I write this in 2024. But all at the neglect of my family.
Too much money? You would think having too much money is not a problem. But actually Morgan Housel wrote about this. It can become an issue due to Social Debt.
“A subtle problem with money is that assets are easy to measure but liabilities can be hidden. Measuring lottery winnings is simple: $3.9 million, down to the penny. But how do you measure losing your privacy? Or the nagging doubt that some friends only like you for your money? That’s way harder.
When you bought a new, bigger, house, you thought you’d be happier. But then you realize that the reason you wanted a nicer house was to socially compete with other people who had nice houses. So once you got a nice house, you just started dreaming about even nicer homes.
Once you accept that having the nicest home in your social group is your goal, it becomes not only an obsession but a game that cannot be won, since the group you compare yourself to shifts with each salary increase you receive.
My theory is that the more money people have, the more social debt they tend to be burdened with.”
What an interesting insight. That there can be too much of a good thing. Although you can argue the other side of this is Stalin’s quote “Quantity has a quality of itself.”
So why do I raise this? I think it shows that constraints are important. That quality can be far more important than quantity. And there can be too much of a good thing.
But based on my experience in life and business, it’s not usually the big companies with tons of resources that change the world. It’s usually startups with much less money and people but more high quality and focused people who actually succeed. This is because the big company has too many legacy businesses, people and mindset. Basically social debt.
It’s not always the rich kid who does well in life, it is usually the Poor Smart & Hungry kid who does. Poor kids like startups have nothing to lose and everything to gain. So don’t worry if you don’t have a lot now. You can absolutely change this. Constraints drive creativity. Too much can sometimes become a curse.
Peace Through Strength: Your Regular Reminder to Get Strong Physically, Mentally and Financially
I’ve recently taken to watching Korean and Japanese movies on my many flights. Korean movies about their fight for independence against a vicious & repressive Imperial Japan during the turn of the 20th century like “Assassin” or “The Battle: Roar of Victory.” And basically any Japanese samurai movie. I highly recommend “The Pass: Last Days of the Samurai”. These are all Incredibly well written action movies.
Watching these movies I get a sense of unease as it's a reminder of a scarier time. That chaos and violence that can appear anytime and at any moment. Savages & barbarians that can come over the mountain and disrupt your life brutally as we have seen with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Hamas terrorist attacks in Israel.
Strength is strength. We’ve gotten used to peace & prosperity. And many of us have gotten complacent. Or worse, adopting self-damaging ideology like Wokeism that makes us give up our strengths out of guilt. We fear exercising power but our many enemies do not. If we continue down this path we will be at the mercy of others. Reliant on their good will and benevolence. And this is the worst situation any person or country can be in.
The reality is that we are entering an ugly new world for a while. As a history major and global macro watcher, I see that we are leaving a Unipolar Hegemony, the Western world order run by the United States and the almighty US Dollar. We are going towards one of multipolar sort, of many new strong players like China/ Russia/ Iran, as well as India, Turkey, Poland, Nigeria, Indonesia among the top of the list.
Many new players are showing up. Each with their own interests. A works with no permanent allies, only permanent interests. It’s going to be chaotic. And we let it happen because of incompetence, corruption, decadence, arrogance and complacency in the West. This is what kills empires, countries and companies throughout history.
But it’s not too late. We need to understand that good intentions need to be backed up with power and strength. Power and strength is neutral and can be used for good or evil. Our peace, values, freedoms and way of life must be defended against both internal and external enemies.
As a country, we need to rebuild our industrial base, our education and repair the cultural/economic divide in our society. Drive out wokeism, DEI & ESG garbage from our government, schools and Companies and be more pragmatic.
At the foundational level, fix your brain. Meditate. Fix your media diet, stop watching the news both Fox and CNN and MSNBC are garbage. They are both wings of the same bird filling your brain with useless drivel. Manage your social media intake better. And for heaven’s sake and your own sanity, please stop scrolling through IG or TikTok. These dopamine hits wreck your ability to focus. Go read some books on history and business or watch documentaries. Learn to think critically and for yourself. Get mentors that could be virtual or historical or real.
But before you get financially fit, you have to get physically fit. Go to the gym, fix your diet and have less processed foods. Fix your sleep and train in some fighting arts. There is no excuse to be out of shape or obese unless you have an injury or medical condition. Otherwise, you will become a burden to your family and society. A dependent on others.
At the individual level, every man needs to get their financial act together. Make money and fight the hedonic treadmill. Stop being a consumer and become a producer. Build and Make something. Sell something. The tools exist and there are plenty of problems out there to solve. The Solopreneurship wave is here. This is your path away from dependency on others.
Do this and you can unite your thought, sight and action. Live focused lives like the Japanese samurai did. Singular in purpose. As Lord Kawai said in “The Pass”: “Our strength of will is the only thing that can save this domain.”
Find other people who are into self improvement and build your tribe. It’s gonna be ugly and you don’t want to be a lone wolf in this mess. But a tribe will only accept you if you bring something to the table and are able to hold your own.
The point is we are fast running out of time. It will be chaotic at Global level, country level and city level. We are already seeing the rise of crime and break down of civil order in many cities in Europe as well as the blue states in the USA due to the stupid policies being implemented in these places.
My question to you is do you want to be part of the solution or part of the problem? If you prepare yourself, you may even begin to thrive in this new world order. This is a time that we will see the rise of many warlords and caudillos aka strongmen, as they are called in Latin America. Not the world I want but it’s the world we are in. One that requires perpetual readiness.
Take responsibility for your own life and destiny NOW before it’s too late. Lord Kawai said: “From now on, we rely on ourselves! As a modest domain, only self reliance, self respect and belief in our own strength will allow us to survive! Do your best and let Heaven take care of the rest.”
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads May 5th, 2024
“No act of kindness, no matter how small, is ever wasted.” ― Aesop
"Impressive people seem to have boundless belief in themselves. How else would they have grand visions, raise that kind of money, or honestly get up in the morning? The truth is that the most impressive people are anxious overachievers. They must prove something — to themselves, their parents, or the world."
2. "To add some clarity to where I stand on investing in AI - I think the opportunity is massive. But unlike other types of technology that came before, it won’t all start with startups and expand up market. There will be opportunities everywhere, but I think pre-seed and seed AI companies that look like the pre-seed/seed companies of the past decade, will not be nearly as successful.
Find business models that are more than software, because pure software will become less defensible over time. More and more I like models that bundle software with something physical: sensors, services, a needed human touch, etc.
Consider companies that can benefit from strong ecosystems, particularly in GTM. The SaaS wave of the last 15 years was weak on channel partnerships as an early GTM focus. I think that will change. If you have a lot of channel partners or other integration and ecosystem partners who benefit from your success, there are many people who are incentivized to make sure you aren’t replaced.
Look to apply AI in industries that have not had to defend much against the innovator’s dilemma. This could mean bigger more vertically integrated business models but, in many cases I think that will be the right play."
https://investinginai.substack.com/p/how-i-think-about-ai-investing-in
3. "QT removes liquidity from the system. As of March 2022, the Fed allows roughly $95 billion worth of UST and MBS to mature without reinvesting the proceeds. This causes the Fed’s balance sheet to fall, which we all know reduces dollar liquidity. However, we are not concerned about the absolute level of the Fed’s balance sheet but the pace at which it declines.
Analysts, like Joe Kalish of Ned Davis Research, expect the Fed to reduce the pace of QT by $30 billion per month at its May 1st meeting. The reduction in the pace of QT is positive for dollar liquidity as the Fed’s balance sheet rate of decline slows.
When the TGA balance rises, it removes liquidity from the system, but when it falls, it adds liquidity to the system. When the Treasury receives tax payments, the TGA balance rises. I expect the TGA balance to swell well above the current ~$750 billion level as tax payments are processed on April 15th. This is dollar liquidity negative.
Don’t forget it's an election year. Yellen’s job is to get her boss, US President Jeo Boden, reelected. That means she must do all she can to juice the stock market to make voters feel rich and ascribe this great outcome to the slow “genius” of Bidenomics. When the RRP balances finally go to zero, Yellen will spend down the TGA, releasing, most likely, an additional $1 trillion of liquidity into the system, which will pump markets.
The precarious period for risky assets is April 15th to May 1st. This is when tax payments remove liquidity from the system, QT rumbles on at the current elevated pace, and Yellen has yet to start running down the TGA. After May 1st, the pace of QT declines, and Yellen gets busy cashing checks to jack up asset prices."
https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/heatwave
4. This was a great discussion on owning businesses, business and life philosophy and finding your mission through business.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6U2goTmqo3Y
5. "In 2002, Musk kick-started a new era for the city when he founded SpaceX from a modest office there. By the time SpaceX outgrew El Segundo and moved to nearby Hawthorne in 2008, Musk had cemented El Segundo as a home to top-flight engineers. Some of them—like Radiant co-founder Doug Bernauer—have stayed to start their own companies, while many others have helped form the bedrock workforce for the newest startup boom.
Within the Gundo, almost every startup hopes to turn the Defense Department or some other government entity into a customer. It was an unpopular strategy until Thiel’s Palantir and Musk’s SpaceX proved that startups could secure government contracts when competing against established giants like Raytheon and Boeing. And the increase in defense tech startups in the Gundo mirrors the broader rise in venture-backed startups working defense purposes over the few years, spurred on by SpaceX’s example, as well as rising geopolitical tensions in places including China, Ukraine and Israel. Realistically, of course, securing government contracts remains a long and potentially fruitless endeavor, which could mean many of the El Segundo startups disappear as quickly as they appeared.
Many of the founders expressed to me the feeling that America had fallen behind other countries like China, and that their work in the Gundo is helping the U.S. recapture its faded manufacturing glory. Cameron Schiller, co-founder of startup Rangeview, which uses 3-D printing to produce parts for the military, said he felt himself and the Gundo startups had a common mission.
“We had ideas and things that were very American, but they were old American. They’re not ‘Build this B2B SaaS maker software doohickey to deliver your groceries 10% faster,’” Schiller said. “We wanted to rebuild the fabric of the country.”
6. "Generally, research finds that when we’re challenged or struggle in ways that we believe we’re capable of overcoming, those struggles eventually invigorate us and lead to a sense of meaning and accomplishment.
But when confronted with struggles and challenges that we feel powerless to overcome, that’s when we get demoralized, and in extreme cases, experience trauma.
Throughout history, people erred on the side of subjecting each other to more pain. This is because most of human history fucking blew. War, famine, plagues, slavery, tyranny were the norms of the human condition, not the exception. So people were hard on their kids, hard on each other, and had little sympathy.
This changed about a hundred years ago with the rise of Freud and widespread acceptance of psychology. These days, you could argue that in some ways, we are probably too soft."
https://medium.com/@markmanson/why-growth-requires-struggle-741e59f02072
7. My buddy Alex knows the business of VC very very well. This was a great interview on what’s happening in Venture and the tech startup land.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1LrSdUVO7s
8. "Our search for revenue durability. The final point, on revenue durability, is the real clincher. Everything about LLMs seems to make revenue durability more challenging than ever. As VCs, our approach has been to try to focus tightly on this question as we evaluate the current generation of AI-first/LLM-powered companies, both on the infrastructure and application layers.
LLMs and GenAI provide powerful new tools for technology vendors and customers alike. They change the playing field, but they do not change the fundamental rules of the game. Within the new (and still emerging) rules of the LLM/GenAI game, we continue to search for companies that have a path to creating significant customer value while capturing value for their shareholders."
https://medium.com/angularventures/revenue-durability-in-the-llm-world-5d655b22f07d
9. Jocko Willink is da man. So much to learn from this guy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_PKYpZihqQ
10. "I’m sure that to someone in the Navy’s public relations department thinks that simply refusing to talk to reporters about these problems means that the problems have been solved. This is typical of the ostrich-like mentality that I see among a very wide variety of Americans, from Congressional staffers to tech moguls to news reporters and pundits, regarding the imminent threat of war with China. But refusing to talk about problems doesn’t make them go away; it simply makes us less prepared to deal with them.
China’s leaders, meanwhile, labor under no such comforting illusions. In addition to their massive military buildup, they are taking various other actions that might or might not entail purposeful preparation for war, but definitely have the effect of making China better-prepared should a war break out.
For example, China’s dominance of the battery and electric vehicle industries helps insulates them against a potential blockade of their oil supplies through the Straits of Malacca.
Xi has also commanded the country to improve its food self-sufficiency; since the country was 94% self-sufficient in food back in 2000, this is probably not an impossible task. That will insulate China against any possible blockade of food imports in the event of a war.
As for finance, China has been stockpiling gold and urging trading partners to do more business in yuan. That should help neuter threats of financial sanctions, like the one Janet Yellen just issued.
Again, I don’t know which of these measures represent purposeful preparation before the launching of a great-power war. But they all definitely make China better-prepared. Even as the U.S. tries its best to ignore its glaring inability to build ships and missiles and ammunition, China is shoring up its key weaknesses in fuel, food, and finance.
All of this should scare you a bit. It certainly scares me a lot. The possibility that revisionist great powers will launch a world war in order to overturn the global order is now a lot higher than it was a few years ago, and arguably even higher than one year ago. Americans need to be screaming our heads off about this, so that we can start planning for this disaster today, instead of allowing ourselves to wait and be blindsided by it. We need to be warning our friends, and telling them to warn their friends. We need to be talking about this on national TV, in the New York Times, on podcasts, and on whatever social media the CCP still doesn’t control.
Right now, what I mostly hear is a deafening, horrible silence."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/americans-are-still-not-worried-enough
11. llluminating conversation.
"The 1930s are used as a more common reference to the current sanctions on Russia instead of China. We are not sanctioning China. We are only trying to prevent the acquisition of high-end chip capabilities for the sake of reducing Chinese military capabilities.
Since Japan is an oil importer, the WWII oil embargo was a serious hit to the Japanese economy. You are correct that there was a clear connection between the oil export ban and Imperial Japan’s decision to go into French Indochina and the Dutch colonies to gain access to the resources.
There was a discussion in Japan that harsh sanctions on Russia would put Russia into a corner, causing them to do something unthinkable like using a nuclear weapon. But Russia did not use a nuclear weapon, and now they are still trading oil to China, India, and elsewhere.
From a Japanese point of view, there's always a reference to the 1930s when it comes to the question of economic coercion. There is a national memory. But this argument is separate from the question of economic security. Economic security is a debate about how to prevent economic coercion from being imposed on Japan. Something that hasn't changed since the 1930s is that Japan depends heavily on imports for energy and food. We are vulnerable to economic coercion, so we need to think of the how to mitigate those risks."
https://www.chinatalk.media/p/japans-economic-security-renaissance
12. Good state of Saas in 2024 from Jason Lemkin.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvS3tJFmunY
13. An excellent discussion on the basics of growth hacking from Silicon Valley. Elliot is a legend here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1cicJ3OTvg
14. "What happens if I don’t make this investment?
This explains a lot of what I’m seeing in the market. Sometimes, there’s nothing wrong with a company per se. The revenue traction is fine, the market size is interesting, and the founders are good. But the company just doesn’t feel special. If an investor were to pass on this company, it’s unlikely to be a pass they look back on with deep regret.
In my experience, most investors are unwilling to express this sentiment to founders because it’s awkward to say to someone excited about the business they’re building. Instead of saying this, they find another reason to pass on the company and move on."
https://chudson.substack.com/p/what-happens-if-i-dont-make-this
15. "Talent and funding are great, but they won’t get you anywhere if customers don’t want to buy what you’re selling. And that’s where recent economic and political tailwinds come in. Tensions with China and Russia have created pressure on our government to fund defense innovation.
Strained relations with China are also causing companies to rethink their material sourcing and manufacturing for the first time in years or decades.
Additionally, rising minimum wage laws and intensely seasonal hiring needs in sectors like agriculture are pushing many industries toward increasing automation in order to survive.
These global trends are an immense tailwind for startups focused on robotics, manufacturing, defense, energy, and many other areas."
https://www.codingvc.com/p/the-golden-age-of-deep-tech
16. Drone war shows the new face of war. We (USA) are really behind the 8 ball here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U2wZctmpH9o
17. So many great mindset ideas for great success in life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWPKPAGDdpU
18. Great discussion on being an operator-investor. And the big difference in styles between Founders Fund and Khosla ventures and being an independent thinker.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7gZz2MhaPw
19. Innovation in war happens on both sides, unfortunately this is one from Russia. Guided precision heavy explosive bombs which has contributed to their advances in recent months.
20. "Services businesses are a promising next frontier. With massive market sizes- the Big 4 alone brought in $200B in revenue last year- and a relative dearth of dynamic tech talent, the ground is fertile. Historically, common wisdom has held “services businesses aren’t venture backable.” Compared to software businesses, services performed by humans tend to be low margin, hard to scale exponentially, lumpy in revenue, etc. etc. There are many cautionary tales. But change is afoot… hastened by AI, cracking open new, huge opportunities for founders brave enough to go against the tired wisdom.
We even have a beacon out there showing the way: Palantir. What started as a services business is now amongst the most highly-valued (on a multiples basis) venture-backed company in the industry. There’s much to be learned from its march to higher margins and recurring revenue. And with the rapid advancement of AI, I’d argue we’re on the verge of a Cambrian explosion of Palantirs.
Service businesses that leverage both AI and humans to deliver holistic solutions to clients are poised to outgun and outpace the services behemoths that’ve dominated for the last 50 years. Legacy providers are ripe for disruption: their business models rely on human labor and hourly billing which can be turned on its head by AI-enabled vendors.
Further, their “product” (humans) is very difficult to integrate AI into. While software incumbents are having a relatively easy time adapting to the GenAI wave, services incumbents will struggle. Founders, this is a boomtown moment to seize."
21. What a nutty story. White collar criminal sentenced to death (albeit she did apparently steal billions).
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68778636.amp
22. Punching above their weight geopolitically, the Arab Gulf States: UAE & Saudi Arabia & how they are balancing the major world powers around them (ie. USA, China, Russia, India).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kzpNTx2PSc
23. Title says it all. Net net: unlearn everything you think you learned from 2019-2021 in startup land.
It was ZIRP era stupidity and most of it was wrong and irrelevant for this new leaner environment now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_QMWRSlO7l0
24. Brian Singerman of Founders Fund is one of the best investors out there. Plenty to learn from this convo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QBzhRVRIf2Q
25. Bit late to this. Man, Qatar is so wily. Building up their ties with Turkey, Iran & Russia and leveraging their natural gas reserves & massive Sovereign Wealth Fund to beat the Arab state blockade.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eyVTPcy6r0A
26. 6-8 years of man and material left? The limits of the Russian war machine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9Vtck34kRs
27. "Our fast thinking system is an incredible tool. It allows us to drive cars, compare prices, recognize friends at a distance, and play sports. But its availability makes us lazy. Why do the hard work of thinking through a problem when we can just “go with our gut”? In any decision of consequence, it’s good policy to slow down, get out of the stimulus-response cycle, and let your slow thinking catch up. That’s not to say we should disregard our gut — just don’t let it take the wheel.
Ideas are yours to play with, disassemble, shape, and apply where needed. I’ve taken the idea of “slowing down” and mixed it with atheism and stoicism to enhance my personal relationships. When my kids are disagreeable (i.e., awful), or my partner is upset/angry, I often respond as if it’s a threat to my authority or value. I reflexively escalate and get back in their face(s). I now try to disassociate. What I mean by that: I take myself out of my “self” and see someone I care about upset. Being an observer, vs. being in the line of fire, inspires different emotions."
https://www.profgalloway.com/think-slow/
28. "PMF isn’t attained permanently, but sustained over time as companies & complexities grow. As they scale, startups move up-market, expand into new geographies, add new product lines, & develop new customer acquisition motions."
https://tomtunguz.com/extreme-pmf/
29. "Tull, Helberg and the other Idaho attendees see the recent boom in defense tech as a critical bulwark against China and its ambitions. They believe the startups are producing the types of weapons and technology the U.S. needs to secure itself against the rival nation. Overall, China is becoming a topic of intensifying focus in an increasingly hawkish Washington—where dramatic debates over TikTok bans and ominous hearings about China’s military took up a noticeable part of Congress’s winter agenda.
As Tull’s ambition has risen alongside the broader growing interest in defense tech, he’s raised $1.8 billion from investors like Guggenheim Partners for his U.S. Innovative Technology fund, which also contains some of his own personal wealth. (Forbes estimates his net worth at $3 billion.) Tull isn’t stopping there. He is currently in the process of raising even more for the fund, with a goal of securing a total of $3 billion.
Tull’s rise to prominence as a top defense tech investor—and emerging GOP heavyweight—offers a stark contrast with his commercial interests and political spending of a decade ago. Back then, he was growing his film production company, Legendary Entertainment, largely through financing simply plotted blockbusters that resonated with Chinese audiences (he later sold the outfit to China’s richest person). Along the way, he directed some of his Hollywood millions to Democrats like Hillary Clinton, whose political action committees received over $1 million from Tull in 2016. (He still sometimes gives to Democrats, though at a much reduced level.)
As his transformation has occurred, Tull, once a fixture on magazine covers and red carpets, has grown intensely private, retreating to a new home base in Pittsburgh. (He wouldn’t comment for this story.) “He’s very uncomfortable with trying to run out and beat his chest in public,” said longtime friend Joe Lonsdale, a venture capitalist and Palantir co-founder.
The change may seem discordant, but Tull, 53, has in fact long displayed a chameleonlike flexibility of identity. His skill as a shape-shifter came up unprompted when I discussed Tull with Ray Mabus, former U.S. Secretary of the Navy, who described it as “his protean nature.” Added Mabus, who has known Tull for more than a decade: “He is a pretty nimble mind.”
In fact, over the years, Tull has been all these things: laundromat owner; venture capital scout; Hollywood financier; minority owner of the Pittsburgh Steelers; investor in an eclectic bunch of nondefense startups through his holding company, Tulco Holdings, including Colossal, a startup that intends to revive the woolly mammoth; weapons tycoon; and budding political power broker."
30. Love his newsletter. Contrary Ventures has a very differentiated offer in the VC business.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17jjM5SUH_A
31. "The key is that there are two major categories of investors, whereby one is focused on unlimited upside, and the other is focused on a minimum return combined with downside protection. When fundraising, entrepreneurs should understand the two categories of investors and think through the pros and cons of being upside-focused or minimum return-focused."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/04/13/investors-focused-on-upside-or-minimizing-downside/
32. This is a scary forecast on the future of war and geopolitics. Basically we may be close to tipping from a Cold War into a hot war. Worth listening to.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7CDp2JX3Kk
33. Entering a world where everyone is an investor. 2 of the smartest guys on the planet here talking about crypto, it's back.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzoQU0bob0o&t=935s
34. This is a unique take from a surprising source but I certainly hope he is right that Russia will lose in Ukraine.
I wish & pray for Ukrainian victory over Russia even though it looks grim over there right now.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1779217033374089501
Enjoying the Small Things: More Japanese Wisdom
I’m pretty known for my deep love for all things Japan. I’ll literally watch and read anything about the place. One of my favorite things are samurai movies and anime series like “Rurouni Kenshin: The Wandering Swordsman.” There is a great scene when he is with his fencing master and he states what his master told him when he was young.
“Cherry trees at dusk in spring, stars in summer, full moon in fall, and snow in winter. Those things alone give alcohol taste. If it still tastes bad, that proves there is a sickness inside of you.”
This was definitely deep. But think about our own life situations, recall the numerous situations when you are having a delicious meal, all the things you were dreaming of or your favorite dishes say for Christmas or Thanksgiving.
But due to some setback at work or a fight with your spouse or kid. Or you are distracted or feeling bad, or maybe feel some guilt about something you did, the food just ends up not tasting as good as you remember. Despite looking forward to it for so long.
Our inability to let go, our inability to be fully in the present. This ruins our general happiness and it happens all the time. Our brains are one of the most powerful tools in our kit but they sometimes work against us. Actively looking for the next thing, pushing our buttons, making us dissatisfied with elements of our life. Overthinking all the time. It is a kind of sickness inside of you.
That is why you need deep focus on the present. Meditation helps a lot. Only then can we reach zen: a feeling of peace, oneness, and enlightenment. Only then can we get close to perfection. Complete pure dedication and commitment to the moment and technique.
Pushing yourself to the physical extremes. Using your will and spirit, going all in.
As one of the samurai characters said: “To vanquish you and be the mightiest of them all, I will fall to any depths of savagery.”
Short of going to war or a fight to the death, this activity gives you an appreciation of life. When we are focussed on big things and surviving. When we are safe and bored, we come up with stupid petty things to worry and trouble ourselves with. (This explains a lot of the mental illness and woke garbage in the West).
“In that moment you fear death, you find the will to live. If you sacrifice yourself to protect those you hold dear, they will grieve for you. They will not be happy. Your own life is worth as much as any other. Only when you understand the gravity of it will the ultimate technique be yours. Your life does not only belong to you.”
This illustrates what I love about Japanese culture. The embodiment of “we are all in it together” versus the extreme individualism we have in America. I think we miss out on many things when we embrace our individualistic tendencies too much. And we sadly only come together during times of tragedy and challenges. Only then do we realize we have obligations to others. We have obligations to ourselves and to society.
Strong societies are made up of strong communities. Strong communities are made up of strong families. Strong families are made up of strong individuals. It’s time to get strong because as Kenshin’s master says: “The strong survive, the weak die. Reality, plain and simple.”
And it all starts with very small things.
Lessons from “Arnold”: The Mastery of Life Part 2
There was so much to learn from the Arnold documentary and this is why I had to split this post up into 2. One of the things that you notice about Arnold Schwartnegger is his intense drive and hunger. This is something I specifically look for when I am hiring or looking for in startup founders I invest in. No surprise that I tend to see this in immigrants or children of immigrants. It’s like that old saying: “When the going gets tough, the tough get going.”
He shares the traits of everyone I know who has accomplished anything in life. He was literally never satisfied.
“Everytime I won anything. I say to myself ‘Okay, What’s the next thing.’ If you are always hungry you are never really satisfied. Because Reg Park of course won 3 Mr Universe contests. Arnold has to break that record. When people think “this is too much. For me, it was definitely not enough. And then I wanted more.”
He said: “My Mind is just geared differently. It’s geared to moving forward. What is the new thing? A new challenge. A new mountain to climb.”
It’s absolutely about a driving mission which crowds out all the useless distractions we humans find ourselves with in our brains.
Arnold says:
“I mean, I’m not an expert in psychology or anything like that. All I can tell you is that when you are a person that has always a goal, that always has a mission, the less the time that you have to think about ‘How do I feel today?’ ‘Am I depressed today?’ ‘Do I feel sorry for myself’ ‘Have I become a victim?’ ‘Oh my god I feel so bad about myself.’ and all this. I don’t have time for this crap. A lot of time, it’s people didn’t work enough. If you’re busy all the time, you don’t have time to think about this stuff. Let’s just move forward. Move. Move. Move. Move.”
He is not wrong. I find many of the issues that plague modern life. People have too much time on their hands whining about how their life sucks but not doing anything about it. Or distracting themselves through video games, porn or Netflix. Or worse through alcohol and drugs.
Another big lesson from Arnold, you have to sell everything! James Cameron said of him:
“He saw half the job was performing the film, half the job was promoting the film.”
Arnold goes on to say: “You have to be involved yourself. You have to go in there and just say ‘Here’s why you should see this movie.’ You have sell everything. No matter what you do in life. You have to sell it.”
Another reason for his success is his attitude to work. Work was not just work. Work was fun.
“You have to have fun. Fun and work. Work and fun. Most people don’t know that. They worry. And they work. And they worry and they work. Where’s the fun?”
This seems to have served him well as he has incredible mental acuity and looks pretty awesome at age 75.
“I think destiny is what we make of it. You have to have the vision, and then if you follow that, I think miracles can happen. So this is exactly what my life has been about. I saw the peak of bodybuilding. I climbed that peak. Then I saw the other peak. The leading man. The movie star.
And it reminds me of this famous mountain climber, Edmund Hillary, who was the first man to ever climb Mt. Everest. The press asked him ‘what were you thinking about when you looked around and you were up on this peak.’ He said ‘I all of a sudden saw another peak far away. And I started planning my route. How do I get up there to that peak?”
“Visions were so clear and were so targeted. It was like the rifle approach. The target is in front, and I was aiming for its bulls-eye. And you just have to really be careful of that, because you can get so obsessed that you start losing sight of everything else around it.”
He finishes the documentary saying: “I hope that when I am long gone, people say that he made a difference.” I think this is something that all of us aspire to as well.
The Way of Billionaires: DOE=Distressed or Early Assets
I’m glad Tai Lopez is back online. He disappeared for a few years after being ubiquitous all over social media. He was early to using internet marketing to build a personal brand and sell educational courses.
He has gone on to much bigger things since then. Doing the private equity route, investing and taking control of all kinds of businesses, even the Wilhelmina Modeling Agency and massive offline retailer Pier 1 among others.
I like that he shares everything he has learned. But he has shared some of the wealth secrets he learned from his billionaire mentors. Billionaires are a different breed and they are tough. They are the modern day warlords who built their business empires through blood, sweat and some extreme risk. I’d even say in some cases particularly ruthless action.
But there are things to learn from them especially for all of us in the world of business. Tai says the secret is buying DOE=Distressed Assets or buying early. Most empires were started by people who bought distressed assets with cash they had. Whether it was real estate or stocks in 2009 when they were at its nadir. Or private equity like investments in online retail companies in March/April 2020. Rupert Murdoch acquired his way into a global empire in newspapers and television media. Ray Kroc bought McDonald’s burger place from the McDonald brothers and then expanded it to the ubiquitous fast food chain we all know.
The other way is investing early into assets or startups like Elon did in Tesla. Many of the present top seed venture investors in Silicon Valley did the same in 2009 well. Or the businessmen who invested in mining, energy and telecom companies in Russia and other Eastern European countries right after the fall of the Soviet Union in the early 90s. Huge fortunes were made then.
When things looked grim and everyone else was going to cash or sitting on the sidelines. Investing when it seems most dangerous requires guts and courage that most people do not have. It requires faith and confidence in oneself.
We can all learn something even if we don’t want to become billionaires, but we can all do with more money. Money gives you optionality, freedom and resources to take care of your family, friends and community. So it’s important that we learn from the best money aggregators and capitalists out there.
A Strange Trip: 50 Circuits Around the Sun
I turned 50 years old this week. It’s so weird. I don’t feel like I’m 50. I certainly don’t act like it. I feel like I’m just getting started. Like I am just beginning to understand what’s important and how the world works.
Definitely not where I thought I would be when I got to this age. I honestly thought I’d be much further along financially. I thought I’d have all my family stuff figured out and definitely thought my path would been much smoother. I foolishly thought in my younger age that I’d have everything figured out and that I’d be riding the wave up at this point.
But as my online hero Justin Waller says:“ You can tell the size of a man by the size of his problems.”
If this is the case I think I’m probably a very big man, considering the last few weeks. Big problems with my family, problems with my investment portfolio, accounts receivables & cash flow problems personally, compounded by big challenges in my various businesses. Trouble comes in 3 or in this case 4. Nothing as devastating or catastrophic like in 2001 or 2020 for me but still feels disconcerting.
All of is massively painful yet I acknowledge due to my own miscalculations and mistakes. But pain means you are alive. And if you are alive you can do something about it.
Another more positive perspective is that this is the inevitable result of massive growth. Literally growing pains. I see this in startups. And it’s exactly the same in life. It means that we are pushing hard and to the extreme which causes the breakage. It means we are growing. Pain leads to growth. And if you are not growing, you are dying.
I remind myself as I remind my companies, just keep pushing and keep moving. It’s not over until you quit. And if you go down, you go down fighting hard. So here is to being 50 years old and having 50 more trips around the sun.
Thanks for indulging me and thanks for being a reader.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads April 28th, 2024
“The only antidote to mental suffering is physical pain.”--Karl Marx
"The startup adage “chips on shoulders equals chips in pockets” means that entrepreneurs with something to prove increases the chance that investing in these types of entrepreneurs results in better financial outcomes. So, the next time someone asks, “What does it take to be a successful entrepreneur and a successful angel investor?” Remember the saying: “Chips on shoulders equals chips in pockets.”
https://davidcummings.org/2024/03/30/chips-on-shoulders-equals-chips-in-pockets
2. "If you suck at sales, don’t stress it.
No one is born good at everything and we all learn with life experience.
You cannot escape it. You must get more life experience.
This means you spend 30% of your time on research and 70% of your time on action."
https://lifemathmoney.com/everything-in-life-is-sales/
3. A rational take on AI, China and the growing multipolar world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ikAMI8pkosE
4. Always an illuminating conversation on geopolitics and investing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVFkv7fezxE
5. "In the end, I can’t easily dismiss any of the technological, political, or economic factors here. It seems like the feeling that the world broke in the early 2010s emerged from a perfect storm. Smartphones and social media arrived just in time for Americans to rage at each other over the country’s increasingly racialized politics and the built-up economic stresses released by the Great Recession.
Whether America can put itself back together after that storm, or what that new country will look like, is still an open question. Racial polarization is falling, and there are many signs that Americans are starting to turn away from identitarian conflict. Meanwhile, wages have been steadily growing again, inequality has plateaued, and middle-class wealth has recovered. And there are signs that Americans are starting to turn their backs on the most divisive social media platforms and partisan news outlets.
The real X-factor here is geopolitics. Even if America slowly knits itself back together, there will be no restoring the American-led democratic hegemony that existed before Xi and Putin. And the political weakness that we’re now experiencing as a hangover from the ruptures of the 2010s will probably make us far less nimble and decisive in terms of responding to the new global authoritarian challenge.
So when we look back on the early 2010s a decade or two from now, we may remember that this was the time the world truly broke…but for very different reasons than we thought at the time."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-did-the-world-break-in-the-early
6. Not an easy read and I don't write off the Ukrainian army yet but the Russian invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the weakness of the Professional Managerial Class and the West at large.
"This outcome will also be a defeat for the current intellectual and political dominance of western thinking about the operational and strategic levels of war. Perhaps the Moroccan Staff College invites an American General every year to give series of lectures about strategy. But maybe this year’s lecturer is someone whose highest-level command was a battalion in Afghanistan twenty years ago, and who helped to plan the disastrous Ukrainian offensive of 2023. Actually, maybe not, we’ll get back to you.
Likewise, the productions of western Staff Colleges and think-tanks, which have been shown to be hopelessly lacking in insight over the last two years may not be in as great demand. Now again, this does not mean that there will be a simple and immediate replacement of western experts and publications by Russian ones—there are all sorts of practical reasons why not—but it does mean that western expertise and western experts will no longer be treated with unquestioning obeisance."
https://aurelien2022.substack.com/p/when-the-musics-over
7. Really useful discussion on what’s happening in startup land in q4, 2023.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3eWrEBOrMw
8. "Packetized media has rapidly become the dominant form of media, although it’s important to note that dominance doesn’t mean replacement since the earlier forms of media don’t disappear; instead, as we’ve seen, these older types will be integrated into the new dominant form.
Here’s how this shift happened.
--Technological change makes a shift possible (social networking, starting in 2001, was the start of true packetization, and the mass adoption of smartphones made it available to everyone).
--A dopaminergic effect drives early adoption -- if you want to fall asleep at night, read a book; if you want to stay awake, scroll X or TikTok. This dopaminergic effect fades as our brains build up a tolerance to it.
--Repeated use of a new dominant media forcibly alters how we think and perceive reality—it actively rewires the neurons in our brains (as we saw with the mass adoption of reading during the Reformation).
This new method of thinking will inevitably force social reorganization.
In most previous cases, this social reorganization is modest (i.e., broadcast media) since the new dominant media is merely a variant of previous dominant forms."
https://johnrobb.substack.com/p/packetized-media
9. "Although razors are hardly the most expensive products in the store, data indicates they get stolen up to 2.5x as often as other products.
Why are razors such a hot item for thieves?
One reason: they’re a hot item for everyone."
https://thehustle.co/originals/why-thieves-love-to-steal-razors
10. "But when you begin to dig deep and look closely at your objective function, at your reward function, at the status game, at what you put meaning on and what you don't, then you gain a brand new power in life:
The ability to change.
Whenever anyone gets this power it's as if they've opened into a totally different world, as if they were caterpillars and they're now butterflies. But there is only one way to go there. You have to get there yourself. You have to peal back the layers of your own mind and ideas. You have to look closely at how you got here and where you're going. Nobody else can do this for you. Nobody else can push you or pull you or make you do it. It's up to you to open your eyes and see rather than imagining the world from behind closed eyes.
There is no way to understand it without doing the process of self-reflection and sharpening your self-awareness.
There are no expert caterpillars on the life of butterflies. There are only expert butterflies on the life of butterflies.
Do it and the world expands.
Don't do it and you're like a leaf blown around by the wind, drifting wherever life pushes you and imaging the whole time that you are the wind."
https://danieljeffries.substack.com/p/the-human-os
11. Trust and how to gain it.
https://bakadesuyo.com/2024/03/trust/
12. A good view on the future of buying software in a world of AI.
https://tomtunguz.com/ai-enabled-buyers/
13. "When we started NextView back in 2012, we often used the metaphor of the beer industry to describe the evolution of the VC business. In a nutshell, the argument was that all industries go from being a cottage industry to one that is industrialized. A few big players emerge that compete on scale and scope, much like AB Inbev in the beer industry and the megafunds in venture.
The best way to compete in this world was to pursue a craft strategy on the opposite side of the spectrum focused on small scale production of high-quality products. At the time, we pointed to Dogfish Head and Stone Brewing as folks who were pursuing this approach, similar to the OG seed investors like First Round and Baseline."
https://nextview.vc/blog/revisiting-the-craft-beer-metaphor-for-the-vc-industry/
14. James Currier is the OG and this interview was done in 2021.
He was absolutely right on everything as his deep expertise from operating and investing over 25+ years shows.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmCDw98vckw
15. "As this is an election year, everything is clogged up, and the people we need to be thinking long-term cannot see past November. From both a national security and I would offer moral perspective, I do not understand any of the reasons people have for not supporting Ukraine in their fight.
Russia under her present leadership is not a nation of good intent. There is no positive outcome from her winning in Ukraine. There is nothing but benefit for her being humbled in Ukraine. We can do that without a single American soldier.
What are we doing in a macro sense to build our credibility as an ally and friend in the last few years?
Specifically, what have we done in the Pacific to effectively counter PRC courting of those nations they are not directly threatening?
This is varsity football, but we’re performing like the JV team.
…and yes, it is all connected."
https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/america-bad-empire-or-poor-friend
16. "The West still cannot comprehend that the war in Ukraine might ever happen to them. People also cannot process the idea that we are already in a global conflagration. This is partly because war today involves locations and technologies that are difficult or impossible to see. But, war has never been a visual zone.
Luigi Russolo, a sound performance artist from the WWI era, said, “In modern warfare, mechanical and metallic, the element of sight is almost zero. These days, bullets, fighter jets, and hypersonic weapons all fly too fast to see. War is heard, “from noise, the different calibers of grenades and shrapnel’s can be known even before they explode”.
The sound of war is what tells us where the battlefield is. The geography of that battlefield is no longer constrained by nation-state borders. It has extended to non-combatants and to locations inside Western nations. This is evident both by debilitating acoustic sounds and by the sound of silence, which now move together, making for a punctuated, perhaps syncopated story. We are in an era of acoustic/sonic warfare and silence."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/acoustic-geopolitics-unit-29155-unit
17. More of this. Constraints lead to creativity and Ukrainians were very creative and clever to begin with.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYG654K1D3M
18. Learning from the best. Founders Fund is a very unique VC fund.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRTxul6PjQc&t=2573s
19. “We’re going to see 10-person companies with billion-dollar valuations pretty soon…in my little group chat with my tech CEO friends there’s this betting pool for the first year there is a one-person billion-dollar company, which would’ve been unimaginable without AI. And now [it] will happen.”
Altman’s idea is that AI tools will soon reach the point where they can replicate the entire output of human employees. Instead of needing to hire a designer, you can use GPT-6 to design for you. There will be far less need for software engineers (meh), sales staff (no one will miss them), and newsletter writers (a tragedy of Greek proportions, leaving our society barren and empty).
An ambitious founder could outsource the work they would use employees for to an army of artificial intelligence agents. Theoretically, this would allow entrepreneurs to focus on only tackling their most important competitive advantage.
To reach $100 million in ARR, founders will need to have an advantage in both taste and distribution. Taste will enable founders to have a unique insight into their customers’ problems to solve, while distribution will allow them to rapidly market their solutions. Remember, if AI agents are as powerful as Altman is predicting, someone can build an idea the instant they have it. So the only edge comes from having the quality of taste to generate the idea first and better, or in distributing it faster and more cheaply."
20. This is an instructive interview on the art of venture capital and operating in startup land.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJTlXA3dWGY
21. "The Trisolarans are an impressive bunch, so it makes sense that some humans would be so dazzled that they would treat them as gods and be happy to do their bidding — including sabotaging their fellow humans. In our world, such a role is played by environmentalists and NIMBYs. These are folks who, over the past half century, have acted as Sophons in slowing tech progress.
For example: You can thank them for 1970s-era environmental regulations that make it maddeningly hard to build big projects in America, either quickly or cheaply. And you can thank them for continuing to use such regulations today.
More Sophons: Those in Hollywood who continue their public demoralization campaign about technology — AI will kill us, cancer cures will turn us into zombies — and the future.
Sorry, it wasn’t aliens or Sophons. It was us."
https://fasterplease.substack.com/p/what-the-3-body-problem-teaches-about
22. Mayers is an impressive person but being around the block, I wonder if it is not a curse to gain wealth and great success at a young age. Expectations get out of whack and you wonder if you can recreate that success (or worse you learn the wrong lessons).
"Building a hit app is hugely challenging, and chaos is a common feature of many or even most of the startups that set out to build them. Sunshine, which Mayer founded with Muñoz Torres a year after leaving Yahoo, has been no exception, according to interviews with employees, who all asked for anonymity to speak publicly about the company.
Mayer’s original idea had been to create simple utility apps powered by artificial intelligence. (She almost named the company Mundane AI, she told The Information last year.) In 2020, two years after the company launched under the name Lumi Labs, the pair announced the company’s first product: an app that promised to be “the world’s most advanced, intuitive contact manager,” according to The Verge.
The company raised a $20 million seed round in 2020 from a small group of investors, including Mayer. At the end of that year, it officially rebranded as Sunshine.
Despite high hopes, the contacts app has yet to take off. It was buggy at launch, duplicating contacts or introducing other errors into data fields. And it rattled some users by filling in contact information using public databases, raising privacy concerns."
https://www.platformer.news/marissa-mayer-sunshine-shine-app-design-cofounder-quits/
23. "The U.S. will not be able to stand against that juggernaut by retreating behind a fortress of tariffs and trying to become an expensive, smaller mini-China. The only way the U.S. will be able to stand against that juggernaut is to get a big gang together. We have to weld the economies of the democratic nations into a single whole, sharing supply chains and markets and technology. Only by doing this will we be able to match the incredible size and scope of the Chinese industrial machine.
The TPP would have been a first step toward creating that unified economic bastion, but we killed it. The IPEF’s trade component would have been an important step in that direction, but we killed that too. Just like the people in the legend of Pandora’s Box, we rushed to shut the lid on trade agreements when all the monsters had already escaped, and the only thing we managed to lock in the box was Hope.
We may still have time to reverse course. Perhaps if Biden wins in 2024, and the electoral pressure is off, the administration will gain the political breathing room to turn the country toward strategic trade agreements with allies. This will require some leadership from the administration, and also some attitude adjustments on the part of the American intellectual class. Yes, free trade was bad in the 2000s. But Fortress America isn’t a workable alternative. The alternative is strategic trade, and I hope we realize that in time."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-us-would-be-insane-to-go-it-alone
24. "To say that Taiwan is important to the global tech industry is like saying oxygen is important to breathing. Taiwan as a whole is responsible for making 80 to 90 percent of the world’s most advanced computer chips — ones for which there is no current substitute. Taiwan’s TSMC makes up half of that production on its own, and 90 percent of the chips TSMC makes are produced in its 12 fabrication plants — or “fabs” — on the island.
And, of course, earthquakes and volcanoes are just one threat to Taiwan’s semiconductor foundries. The better known one is just 80 miles across the Taiwan Strait, where the People’s Republic of China has made it increasingly clear that it could be willing to use military power to force reunification with what it regards as a renegade province. Should Taiwan’s chip foundries be destroyed in such a conflict, the damage to the global economy could be on par with the Great Depression."
25. Fascinating discussion on AI making the rounds. It's worth listening to.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYdVzg5WE3w
26. This is why America is an unreliable ally. Its embarrassing. Curse the MAGA for their gutlessness and inhumanity. Either support Ukraine to win or broker a peace. Don't half a-s it like we seem to do everything these days.
“Ukraine’s largest single supplier of ammunition was the United States until the latest round of military assistance stalled in Congress. Representative Mike Turner of Ohio, a Republican who is the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, told CBS News over the weekend that American military and intelligence officials had made it clear Ukraine could not hold out much longer.
We are at a critical juncture on the ground that is beginning to be able to impact not only the morale of the Ukrainians that are fighting but also their ability to fight,” Mr. Turner said.
On the front lines in Ukraine, they call it the “shell hunger,” a desperate shortage of munitions that is warping tactics and the types of weapons employed. It is not just the overall lack of ammunition that is so damaging but also an imbalance in the kinds on hand."
27. This is a good perspective on angel investing.
I don't agree with the investing with accelerators now as the top ones shift all the time with exception of YC. But in general as newbie this is a good view.
https://www.sanjaysays.co/p/how-to-make-money-investing-in-startups
28. This is a good state of the union for venture capital and Silicon Valley.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t8q6BdrXEn4
29. "Building a calm company has meant saying no to opportunities that don't align with our values. We've purposefully declined complicated enterprise contracts that would require us to staff up, add more compliance, and sign complicated legal contracts. We try not to commit to projects that burn us out. We've prioritized doing work that we enjoy and that brings customers value.
The world needs more indie entrepreneurs building calm businesses. We won't get more calm from publicly traded companies or the over-funded venture-backed class. It's going to come from the next crop of small, purposefully built, indie startups with healthy margins."
https://justinjackson.ca/calm-company
30. "Entrepreneurs would do well to read both the Startup Founder Survival Guide and the SaaS Growth Playbook."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/04/06/startup-founder-survival-guide-and-saas-growth-playbook/
31. Fascinating talk on the major changes in SaaS and enterprise software. So many smart investors out there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mC95YDNpLPU
32. This discussion explains the great delusion in the West and why we are losing against the autocratic powers.
And also how Africa is strategic to the west and how we are losing there too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4gvIECrsPkY
33. "So I'll end with this. As we rage on in The Glass-Half War, it isn't enough for the Glass Half-Full Brigade to tell exceptional stories. It isn't enough to reframe the stories of the Glass Half-Empty Annihilators. We have to seek to improve. To seek superior outcomes. To find better solutions that move progress forward for everyone.
That is how we win. We fill up the cup. The cup should be overflowing with so much optimism and excitement, that the Glass Half-Empty Annihilators no longer have a leg to stand on, and can't do anything other than stand back in awe of the progress we're making.
Fight the good fight."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/the-glass-half-war-empty-or-full
34. "Big Fiscal thus represents a risky bet. It’s a bet that avoiding even a small rise in unemployment at all costs is worth the risk of potentially keeping both inflation and interest rates uncomfortably high. I don’t know where the correct balance of risk lies, but I worry that progressives over-learned the lessons of the Great Recession. Unemployment isn’t the only thing that makes American voters mad.
In any case, I think that after the election, we’re likely to see increased concern about the federal deficit — no matter who wins. Even if rates do get cut, it seems unlikely they’ll soon return to the near-zero level of the 2010s. 3% rates would likely still be high enough to force uncomfortable fiscal decisions on Congress and the President, given how much debt the government has built up since the days of Bill Clinton. An Age of Austerity — or at least, unpleasant political battles over austerity — is probably on the way."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-is-the-us-doing-so-much-deficit
35. Legendary seed investor. Investing in the age of AI & how to differentiate yourself as a VC.
Lessons from “Arnold”: The Mastery of Life Part 1
There was a very rough weekend with the family during the summer and this documentary came at a good time. Arnold was a Netflix documentary that did a great job encapsulating and showing Arnold Schwartneggers rise in bodybuilding, building his real estate wealth, Hollywood movies and politics.
He is the ultimate example of a self made man, a boy from rural Austria growing up in an abusive family that ended up becoming HUGE in America in multiple realms. He married into the Kennedy family of all things. He ended up dominating in three different realms career-wise. I’d say 4 as you also need to include his real estate empire.
It showed his unrelenting drive, personality and success but also his deep failures. Many times in his own words. I highly recommend watching it as it’s not just a great story but holds many lessons for our own lives.
“My whole life I had this unusual talent that I could see things very clearly in front of me. If I can see it, then it must be achievable.The idea was to sculpt the body to your will. But it also can be used to shape your mind, to do the things that everyone calls impossible. That gives you the will and no doubt that you can make your visions, not only become a reality, but go beyond your dreams. I had a fire in the belly for more. Much, much more.”
Destined for more than a regular life where he grew up in an impoverished and very small village called Thal in Austria. He never fit in.
“Growing up, I learned “You work your ass off.”’
His father made him compete against his eldest brother all the time, even on stupid things. And I think this is part of what made him so competitive. His father told him: “Whatever you do Arnold, be useful”
Entranced by an American movie Hercules starring Reg Park who was a big muscled actor. This set him off on his path and became his blueprint for his life. It’s good to have positive models and aspirations in life
“I would be working out in my house. And there was no noise. And I could think and concentrate and visualize how I could become a bodybuilding champion. How I was going to move to America and get into movies. How I could make millions of dollars.”
This coupled with community seemed to be the key to his success. He was great at joining the right crews. First time in the community of wrestlers, body builders, men with muscles who adopted him into their clique as their kid. “I think every since then, I celebrated this camaraderie. And because I admired it so much I created it wherever I went.”
One of the big points was his willingness to move. He had to get out and be around others who are better. From Thal to Graz, then Munich, then London, to Miami and then Los Angeles, specifically Venice Beach. The Mecca of Bodybuilding. Gold’s Gym on Venice Beach was the center of action where Arnold built his community. He was great at making friends and building allies who helped him as he helped them. Community and environment matters.
As Arnold said, success is a team sport.
“The only thing that is self is kind of my motivation and my visualization and all of this stuff. There were endless amounts of people that were helping me…..don’t ever call me a self made man, because I am not.”
The Joy of A Good Night’s Rest: The Most Important Element for Health and Clear Thinking
This last summer in Taiwan was brutal. It was record breaking heat outside. And while I had air conditioning. My sleep was greatly disturbed by jet lag coming back from a business trip from Europe that was exacerbated by massive family and business issues. The consequence was not enough sleep and whatever sleep I had was plain substandard sleep. I’m normally very good with dealing with jet lag as I have a pretty good routine and have ways of coping and adjusting within a few days, week max. But this time it dragged on for over 3 weeks, even with the aid of melatonin.
And I can honestly say it showed in all aspects of my life: my home/family life and my business life. The foggy brain, the short temper and the inability to focus and concentrate or to properly deal with the setbacks that normally happen. It was pretty much a hard slog every single day.
I was able to grind through it with a dose of intense HiiT (High Intensity Training) routine, lots of meditation and cold showers and ice cold coffee. But these are coping mechanisms.
So why does sleep matter? According to the UK Mental Health Foundation:
“Sleep is an essential and involuntary process, without which we cannot function effectively. It is as essential to our bodies as eating, drinking and breathing, and is vital for maintaining good mental and physical health. Sleeping helps to repair and restore our brains, not just our bodies.
During sleep we can process information, consolidate memories, and undergo a number of maintenance processes that help us to function during the daytime.”
I normally don’t have issues with sleep. I love it. I can usually sleep anywhere, on airport benches, in flight, on trains and in the car. I think this is one of the reasons my health overall is so good because I usually sleep well.
We’ve all had the experience of having crazy and dark thoughts very late at night. But having a good sleep and waking up the next morning, will make you feel great and ready to tackle the issues troubling you.
So my point is that if you are in a bad mental state, perhaps one of the best tools in your kit is to just try getting a good night’s rest. You still obviously have to exercise and do the hard work, whatever it is when you are awake, but getting some quality sleep could be the first important step to turning things around and making your life better.
The 5 AM Club: Mornings are for World Domination
I’ve always been a night owl. It’s how I’m wired. When I am left on my own without any work, I will just naturally stay up late, writing, watching videos, or reading books and comic books. And I mean till really late like 4 am. Then I would sleep until early afternoon. I used to jokingly call this vampire mode. And I was immensely productive. Night time is when I am the most awake and alive and there is no one to bother you. It’s peaceful and you can focus.
I used to smirk or be skeptical when I saw that book by Robin Sharma called “The 5 AM Club.”
But this all changed when I joined the working world and then especially when I became a father. Between business/work, family and baby, you are not left with much time to yourself. So I had to discover early mornings, like really early mornings. A decade ago it was 6 am, now I’m doing 5 am or sometimes 4 am. It’s just as quiet and calm but you don’t feel rushed or hurried.
I can do my meditation for a full 30 minutes which has been an immense unlock to my mental state. I get to do my exercise regime and I get to read and really carefully review emails. I’ve done all the hard things early in the day.
It also helps that my business partners and many of my portfolio companies are overseas in Europe, MENA and Asia so I am able to catch them for calls. I feel like I am able to steal a march on everyone here in America with this early start. I’m almost always jetlagged from my regular flying anyway so it works out well.
Now to make this work, you have to get enough sleep. So going to bed at a not crazy hour is critical. I try to get at least 8 hours of sleep so going to bed around 8 pm is important.
But if you can’t do this, a short 30-45 minutes nap in the early afternoon is helpful. Or you can take a coffee nap. Have a coffee and then take a 20-30 minute nap. It works, you snap back alert and awake after.
So for those who are trying to get a lot done but have crazy schedules, doing the 5 AM club is a good routine. You can get so much done and free up time in the afternoon to spend time with family or read or just chill. It’s a good strategy especially if you have a day job and are trying to get your side hustle or personal business off the ground. So I am now a fully fledged member and believer of the 5 AM club. Be there or be square.