Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads April 21st, 2024
"Freedom is the sure possession of those alone who have the courage to defend it."--Pericles
"Quick cash feels good, but ultimately weakens the bottom line. In our experience, M&A activity typically occurs 5–7 years into a start-up’s lifecycle and IPOs happen in the 10–12-year range.
Data supports this observation. According to PitchBook data, the older the vintage year of a high-performing emerging fund — which means more time for portfolio companies to grow — the more capital gets distributed to investors."
2. "But, the alternative to appeasement tends to imply war, and possibly even conscription. The Young Turks today don’t want to fight. They want to build startups. They want to solve real-world problems and not be interrupted by them. Notice what the actual Turks are offering. “President Erdoğa stated that Türkiye stands ready to assume any facilitating role in returning to the negotiating table in Ukraine.” They want to know why a peace deal nearly happened last April and then somehow got scuppered. These are dark times for those who thought they’d never face any questions.
So, even if Kennedy doesn’t win, his voice has turned this into a three-way race. Perhaps it’s a narrative race. Still, it’s a real race."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/its-a-three-way-race-for-the-white
3. "I expect that over the next 24 months, we’ll see a washing out in the venture markets. This will be true both for startups and for venture firms. On the startup side, many companies will raise down rounds or not be able to raise at all; they’ll shut down. Most unicorns shouldn’t be valued at $1B+, and we’re going to see a resulting correction.
For venture firms, we’ll see the same thing. Over the past few years, we saw a boom in first-time funds. Many of these funds overextended themselves during the market froth, and they’ll struggle to raise a second or third fund. The funds that succeed will fit into one of two buckets—artisans or asset managers.
We’re seeing the same thing in venture. You’re either an artisan or you’re a scaled asset manager. Going back to the two resources that founders can allocate—labor and capital—artisans are more focused on assisting with the labor and asset managers are more focused on assisting with the capital.
Artisans focus on people; they invest capital, sure, but their value really shines in hands-on partnership around attracting and cultivating talent—making sure the right people are around the table. Asset managers are more about the money—their form of venture is less about craft than about putting dollars to work.
Naturally, the latter is a better fit for a late-stage company that has a built-out people function and is more focused on getting dollars in the door to keep the engine humming. The former is better for early-stage—the original ethos of venture capital."
https://www.digitalnative.tech/p/two-roads-diverged-the-splitting
4. "Friendship is an economic accelerant. The economist Raj Chetty found that for people from lower socioeconomic backgrounds, having wealthier friends “is the single strongest predictor of upward mobility.” Unemployed people who volunteer are 27% more likely to find work than those who do not, aided by the “social capital” (economist-speak for “friends”) they accumulate through volunteering.
Regions with greater civic engagement are more resistant to economic slowdowns, and communities to which the residents have a strong emotional attachment see higher rates of GDP growth. The flip side? The CDC estimates that loneliness costs the U.S. economy $406 billion a year — more than the combined GDP of Vermont, Wyoming, Alaska, Montana, South Dakota, and Rhode Island."
https://www.profgalloway.com/mammal-ai/
5. UAE as a pocket power. Geopolitical impact beyond its size through immense pragmatism & smart statecraft.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5Dpr8nGPkY
6. "Entrepreneurs would do well to think about the “big unlock” that makes their new venture possible. The “big unlock” makes it so that now is the time to build this next company. Sometimes it’s only a modest change that makes a startup work, but the vast majority of the time, there’s some big trend, innovation, or societal shift that creates an unlock for a wave of new startups. Find the unlock and walk through the door."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/03/23/whats-the-big-unlock-for-a-new-venture/
7. "So there was this general sense that this was a one-off — that we rich countries could emerge, battered and bleary-eyed, from the bunkers of the 2010s, and stumble forward with what manufacturing industries remained to us, without the fear that this would happen again. After all, if you look at historical trade competition from Japan, or Germany, or other past competitors, it seems to peak and then level off or decline over time.
Except China, in so many ways, is not like those other competitors. As you can see from the chart above, which is from a recent blog post by Brad Setser and Michael Weilandt, China’s manufacturing surplus — measured relative to the GDP of its trading partners — didn’t stop climbing after 2010. And in the last few years it has been surging again, to heights never dreamed of by Japan or Germany. Meanwhile, headlines are beginning to sound the alarm about a Second China Shock.
This new trade shock will be one of the most important economic stories of the 2020s.
So I don’t think that protectionism is a done deal. But because the Second China Shock is so much more adversarial and zero-sum than the First China Shock, I expect countries to be a lot less willing to sit back and let it happen. And I also think memory plays an important role here — current generations of policymakers, pundits, and voters have all learned the story of how Chinese competition hollowed out our manufacturing workforce and our industrial base in the 2000s, and they will not want to let history repeat.
Whatever the response ends up being, though, it seems clear that the Second China Shock will be one of the most important stories of this decade. China’s attempts to offload any and every manufactured product at cut-rate prices, even at the expense of their companies’ own profit margins and the environment, will become a defining feature of the global economy of the 2020s. We should all brace ourselves."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-decade-of-the-second-china-shock
8. "Subsea cable projects have historically been financed by a consortium of global telecommunications firms but Big Tech has jumped into the fray in the past decade to ensure internet access for its various services, per The Economist:
-GOOGLE invested in 25 cables (and owns 12 outright), with its first sea cable program going back to 2008.
-META invested in 15 cables (owns 1 outright).
-MICROSOFT partly owns 4 cable.
The importance of internet access also means that governments are very involved. There are two main companies laying the cables and their competition for contracts has become a geopolitical flashpoint.
One is based in the USA (SubCon) while the other is in China (HMN Tech). HMN was formerly “Huawei Marine Networks” and “Huawei” is — as you news hounds probably remember — the Chinese telecom and networking giant that was slapped with massive sanctions and fines by the US government in recent years."
https://www.readtrung.com/p/subsea-internet-cables-are-a-miracle
9. "The less control you have over your life, the less you're driving your own train. And countless people can spend their whole careers riding other people's trains, and that's fine. But for many people, there is a drive. An unquenchable thirst to control your own destiny. To get out from under the parameters of an established ecosystem.
Another way I had it described to me was as a pyramid. Most organizational hierarchies are structured like a pyramid. Lots of people at the bottom, a few people at the top. And a lot of people like that structure, because the bottom is capped. But that, by design, means the top is capped too.
To fully uncap the top, or in other words open up the maximum potential, you also have to open up the bottom. You have to open up the possibility that you might fail."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/driving-your-own-train
10. I really like the perspective of Slow Ventures guys. I usually find myself nodding my head a lot when I listen to them. VCs with strong opinions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9pdaOkD3sGQ
11. An interesting take, don't fully agree with all his views but do agree commodities are going to become much more important. I'm investing accordingly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yeFZOQZ54Ks
12. "If you ask me what’s irresistible to fund, it’s when the genius meets the obvious, when a founder shares with you something about their industry, their expertise or their approach that you feel is unique and brilliant."
https://2lr.substack.com/p/irresistible-insights
13. Insightful view on China's internet economy and Alibaba after Jack Ma.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Up66jvibgzY
14. "But media isn’t dead, it has simply struggled to adapt to a new industry landscape. The media businesses that dominated the 1900s misunderstood the source of their competitive advantage. They thought their competitive advantage was their quality of content, and they believed that advertisers would always pay a premium to advertise on that content. But their competitive advantage wasn’t content, it was attention. When search and social stole some of that attention, ad dollars left as well."
https://www.youngmoney.co/p/media-isnt-dead-evolving
15. "When we listen to the cacophony of voices within us—venturing deep into the landscape of our parts—focus, relaxation, and intentional engagement are all necessary. To hear their stories, and witness how these parts influence the choices of our lives, we must slow down. It's in the quiet, reflective spaces that we can get curious and attune ourselves to the rich dialogue within, allowing us to discern when to press forward and when to pause, how to foster deeper presence, and consciously choose our path ahead."
https://www.wheretheroadbends.co/p/why-its-so-hard-to-slow-down
16. "The consolation is that the story of the internet is nowhere near over. It is a dynamic and constantly evolving structure. Just as high-speed fiber optics reshaped how we use the internet, forthcoming technologies may have a similarly transformative effect on the structure of our networks.
SpaceX’s Starlink is already unlocking a completely new way of providing service to millions. Its data packets, which travel to users via radio waves from low earth orbit, may soon be one of the fastest and most economical ways of delivering internet access to a majority of users on Earth. After all, the distance from LEO to the surface of the Earth is just a fraction of the length of subsea cables across the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
Astranis, another satellite internet service provider that parks its small sats in geostationary orbit, may deliver a similarly game-changing service for many. Internet from space may one day become a kind of common global provider. We will need to wait and see what kind of opportunities a sea change like this may unlock."
https://every.to/p/how-we-built-the-internet
17. "For the people fighting this war, burrowed in the earth and constantly fearful whenever exposed, it will be a horror, one that builds on and exceeds the WW1-style trench warfare that set the previous standard. An automated killing field fueled by the advent of inexpensive autonomous weapons, which are rapidly becoming more capable by the day.
Drones, even at the current low levels of autonomy, will turn most conventional warfare into wars of attrition. Wars of attrition (think: WW1 trench warfare) focus on physical damage (men, weapons, and materiel) to force an enemy into submission. To wage attrition effectively, the damage caused must outweigh the cost of causing it. Drones are particularly effective at this since they are far less expensive than the targets they destroy and the methods used to defend against them."
https://johnrobb.substack.com/p/the-automated-killing-fields
18. Two friends and both top tier creator entrepreneurs talking. Learned a bunch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dticDXdRuh8
19. This seems like another media hit job. While I am not condoning sleeping around, he is a fallible & imperfect man, even though he is very accomplished and has massive influence.
"A prophet must constrain his self-revelation. He must give his story a shape that ultimately tends toward inner strength, weakness overcome. For Andrew Huberman to become your teacher and mine, as he very much was for a period this fall — a period in which I diligently absorbed sun upon waking, drank no more than once a week, practiced physiological sighs in traffic, and said to myself, out loud in my living room, “I also love mechanism”; a period during which I began to think seriously, for the first time in my life, about reducing stress, and during which both my husband and my young child saw tangible benefit from repeatedly immersing themselves in frigid water; a period in which I realized that I not only liked this podcast but liked other women who liked this podcast — he must be, in some way, better than the rest of us.
Huberman sells a dream of control down to the cellular level. But something has gone wrong. In the midst of immense fame, a chasm has opened between the podcaster preaching dopaminergic restraint and a man, with newfound wealth, with access to a world unseen by most professors. The problem with a man always working on himself is that he may also be working on you."
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/andrew-huberman-podcast-stanford-joe-rogan.html
20. "So while karaoke and AI represent entirely different kinds of technologies, in broad strokes, there are fascinating, and revealing, parallels between the two. The karaoke machine automated a creative process, using music created by other people. It caused a lot of fury and debate that was only resolved much later, as the technology emerged from the fringes and mainstreamed into the fabric of daily life. With AI, we are still at the “fury and debate” point. History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes."
https://blog.pureinventionbook.com/p/what-can-karaoke-teach-us-about-ai
21. The new face of war to say the least.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibja8YSWaFw
22. This is what Firestorm Labs does.
"The adoption of attritable mass has the potential to revolutionize military operations, but its realization requires overcoming internal hurdles within the Department of Defense and services. The Air Force’s insistence and confusion over application of air worthiness standards highlights one example of the hurdles hindering the speed of adoption that we need.
Treating attritable systems as munitions that they are rather than as aircraft, allows the services to unleash the full power of attritable mass and stay at the forefront of modern warfare."
https://andrewglenn.substack.com/p/unleashing-attritable-mass
23. Very wise and wide ranging discussion on writing LP checks from one of the best.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CN6-eqfCtxo
24. A take on France putting troops in Ukraine, one that actually makes sense.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsU6gONt8Z8
25. This was a solid discussion on various creative, cultural and general business news.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGgoN7xbOq4
26. Chris Dixon is one of the top investors and thinkers in Silicon Valley. Excellent interview here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9kVJ72kiAs
27. Good take on Angel investing with Scott Belsky.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTQ0GJct_ic
28. Good panel on how LPs look at emerging vc funds.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0x5hp-lx6e0
29. One of the best operators and investors in Silicon Valley: Elad Gil. So many lessons for your career.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLA90pa-34A
30. Where American higher education is going. ie. blue collar jobs are back and critical. Don't do a 4 year degree.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZdfqqRAht4
31. Good run down of latest discussions in Silicon Valley.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qV-O-6BI7Xw
32. "There is an increasing body of research showing that ketamine therapy can do wonderful things for people suffering from trauma, depression, and addictions. However, I would not recommend doing this recreationally or outside a therapeutic environment. It is intense.
What has struck me is the benefits of the session have mostly occurred well after the session as I process the experience and what to take from it. This is why several sessions done in a licensed clinic in conjunction with a therapist is a best practice."
https://www.profgalloway.com/prof-k
33. Relevant VC conversations for the time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4s0L_I6aY14
34. Understanding Japanese LPs. I have enjoyed working with my Japanese LPs in my previous business life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cy2MkjW2pwI
35. Technology in the age of conflicting geopolitics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0JGtLHxKPU
36. Valuable discussion of creativity in the age of AI.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-ffIaLq1RQ
37. "The web2 attention economy has its shortcomings for users as well. A common refrain in web2 is that “if something is free, you are the product.” (Interestingly, the phrase also has its origins in the 1970s, with artist Richard Serra saying it about television). The dominant business model for web2 platforms is to amass as much data about users as possible, such that they can be more effectively targeted for advertising. In other words, the value that users’ attention brings is being harvested by platforms, rather than flowing to users.
Crypto can be viewed as the next iteration of the attention economy, with a much more efficient market. Memecoins, NFTs, and tokens (as well as new asset classes) can be considered new “attention assets,” measuring and capturing the value of attention in real time. Users can invest and own attention assets as a way to express their beliefs about whether that particular meme, media, creator, or network will accrue more attention and interest in the future.
When users invest in memecoins, they are implicitly making a statement that they believe that particular token and meme will grow in popularity: attention is the primary driver of value. One X user called memecoins “a way to angel invest in culture.” Platforms like Perl, Fantasy.top, and Friend.tech have created new financialized markets around attention, allowing users to profit based on whether they correctly guess which assets, creators, or content will succeed in garnering more attention."
There is No Hack or Shortcut: A Life of Excellence Requires Pain & Suffering
The All in Podcast is one of my must watch shows every week. I don’t really particularly like them as people but I respect them as tech operators and investors. They really shine when it comes to commentary about startups and Silicon Valley, the American economy & the culture wars, tech investing and investing in general. Even though the geopolitics angle they speak about is just plain wrong and awful. But as they say, the best people are spikey.
However, in Episode 139, there was a great discussion about work and excellence in general. It’s a long section but it’s worth a read. Here it is below.
JCal: “Idealized jobs. I just want young people to understand also. Be careful of what you wish for. This job has seemed easy. Just like it seems easy for Tom Cruise or Christopher Nolan. What you don’t see are all the people who have tried to be Tarantino. Who tried to be Tom Cruise”
DFriedberg: “Ten to Fifteen years before they realized that they were not.”
JCal: “And they did not have the fundamental skills or the work ethic to become Tarantino…..their knowledge of films is so unbelievable. And the detail that they talk about that is so crisp…….
We have a deep, deep understanding of this business that comes from thirty years within it or twenty years. I think you have to, I know it sounds corny, You have to pay your dues. You have to put 60-70 hours in a week to get that elite job. And the problem today I feel is, and for people who are listening who are young people coming out of schools, if you are not willing to sacrifice 60-70-80 hours a week for a decade or two, you are just not going to be successful in that career.”
CPal: “By the way, young people push back on this, and I think the simplest way to reframe it is in the following. Do you really think, for example, let’s pick NBA basketball. Do you think that you would be really interested or find it credible that the best player in the NBA only practiced 3 hours in the week? Does that happen? Or do you think they are practicing 3 hours in the morning and 3 hours in the afternoon and they give up their lives.
The most incredible thing that I saw in the NBA was that all of these men literally gave up their life to play that game to perfection. That’s true for anything. So I dont understand if you want to be a filmmaker, or an investor, whether you want to be an athlete, actor, a surgeon, it’s an immutable law of physics. So get over it. Which is you need to put in tens of thousands of hours and if you cannot or won’t, you should not expect the success and you should not complain. Because it’s not free.”
Amen. Life is supposed to be hard. Nothing is free. There is no guarantee that this hard work and sacrifice will be successful. But you increase the odds of it if you do the work.
However, if you don’t do the hard work and time in, I can guarantee that you won’t be successful. Absolutely 110% guarantee.
Assuming you have found the industry, job or business, the next step is going all in. Put in the hard time, make the mistakes and learn. Treat it like a craft. Be a Shokunin or artisan as they say in Japan. There is no easy path or hack to be the best. The sooner you realize this the better off you will be. This is the road to excellence in life.
Civilize the Mind, Savage the Body, Build the Bank Account: The Grand Triad of Life
I am such a big fan of Codie Sanchez and try to listen or watch all her videos. I wish her content existed when I was in my twenties. But alas, I will learn from her in my 40s.
She mentioned a great interview about the concept of the “3 Dimensional Human” or the 3 part pyramid to freedom.
What are the biggest and most important aspects critical for a happy and fulfilling accomplished life? It’s very obvious when you list them. Your mind (Intelligence & Learning), Your Body (Health) and Bank Account (Money). It’s a framework that everyone can use and absolutely needs to work on to win in life.
The Mind: I’d argue our most important resource is our brain, it actually burns the most calories in our body. It’s our biggest and most effective weapon in life as it helps us learn new things, adapt and find solutions to problems. But it’s also our biggest curse as we get distracted chasing dopamine hits, pursuing hedonistic pleasures and doing stuff that is generally bad for us due to wiring left over from our times trying to survive on the African plains tens of thousands of years ago.
That’s why it’s important to try to civilize our brain. Read as many books, take as many classes, listen to as many podcasts to better inform ourselves. Learn how the world works. I’d also add meditation to this list, it’s a critical tool to calm our monkey minds.
The Body: The next and parallel resource is our body. Savaging the body as they say which means we need to push ourselves with intense exercise. It’s a feedback loop: the stronger our bodies, the clearer our minds are.
The more hard exercise we do (ie. weights, running and martial arts), the better we feel and the better we sleep. I’ve written many times that health is wealth. It’s something we take for granted and most of us learn the hard way when we lose it. Having a strong body gives you confidence and endurance to push through the inevitable struggles in our business and our lives. It’s also a sign of discipline. If I am honest, I find it hard to respect people who are out of shape (short of some medical condition).
The Bank Account: Money is one of the most important tools in a capitalist society. Money is an enabler and energy. The more you have, the better your life is in general. The more experiences you can afford and the more opportunities you can go after. The more people you can help. It’s a great scorecard on how you are doing in the game of life.
And there are thousands of different ways of legally getting money. Working for someone is a much tougher path to this but a good start. Building something of value as an entrepreneur, still hard but a better chance of more money. All the way to investing well in all the many different assets out there from stocks, crypto, commodities, real estate and startups.
Sadly, most people are really strong on “One” of these aspects. One dimensional people ultimately don’t succeed. No point being a fit gym bro without money. Or a rich guy who is boring, crass and uninteresting. Or a brilliant nerd who is out of shape and cannot run or fight.
The point is about being strong on all 3 of these aspects. Strong of mind, body and bank account. Only then can greatness appear. It’s about becoming a better version of yourself. So get to work!
What Does “F-ck You Money” Really Mean: Why Financial Independence is So Important for a Great Life
I saw an incredible video tweeted out by Frederik Gieschen. “'F-ck you money' explained in the movie “The Gambler”. It is so good. You absolutely have to watch this: https://twitter.com/NeckarValue/status/1723448925988835682
Jim Bennett: I've been up two and a half million dollars.
Frank: What you got on you?
Jim Bennett : Nothing.
Frank: What you put away?
Jim Bennett: Nothing.
Frank: You get up two and a half million dollars, any asshole in the world knows what to do: you get a house with a 25-year roof, an indestructible Jap-economy sh-tbox, you put the rest into the system at three to five percent to pay your taxes and that's your base, get me?
That's your fortress of f-cking solitude. That puts you, for the rest of your life, at a level of f-ck you. Somebody wants you to do something, f-ck you. Boss pisses you off, fuck you! Own your house. Have a couple bucks in the bank. Don't drink. That's all I have to say to anybody on any social level. Did your grandfather take risks?
Jim Bennett: Yes.
Frank : I guarantee he did it from a position of fuck you. A wise man's life is based around f-ck you. The United States of America is based on f-ck you. You're a king? You have an army? Greatest navy in the history of the world? F-ck you! Blow me. We'll f-ck it up ourselves.”
This is a bit crass but it’s really insightful and wise. FU Money gives you options. So many options. It gives you choices in life.
If you hate your boss or your job, you can quit. And without worrying about the next paycheck.
Heck, work for yourself. You can turn down business opportunities. You only do it if you find it interesting.
You get to spend time on stuff that is personally interesting to you. You can chase your curiosity.
You get to control how you spend your time and whom you spend it with.
You can live where you want. You can do what you want, as long as you are not hurting anyone else of course! You can do what deeply matters to you personally.
Everyone has a different level of F-U money. I think for most people if they had 12 months cash worth of expenses in the bank that would be enough. It lets you breathe easier and optimize for the long term. It gives you the calm to do the right thing for you and your family. It’s an incredible gift you have to earn. Your life gets so much better here so it is worth working toward this point.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads April 14th, 2024
“Strength does not come from winning. Your struggles develop your strengths. When you go through hardships and decide not to surrender, that is strength.” —Arnold Schwarzenegger
"Africa is in play. Russia has just announced that the remnants of the Wagner Group are now formally reconfigured into Russia’s new Africa Corp. Some call it “old wine in new bottles,” but the name alone indicates a significant increase in the direct control over cash flows and diplomatic influence by Moscow over Africa. There is little doubt that Wagner’s operations have increased and become more professionally managed since the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin.
In the past, Wagner was run as a network involving “the complex dynamics between Russia, its oligarchs, and its criminal networks and how they interact with African governments, businesses, and populations,” according to The Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime. This is more than rebranding. Today, the private military contractor network is becoming a more formal arm of Russian diplomacy and policy.
The Russians had been recruiting in North Africa, looking for people to fight on the front lines of the war with Ukraine. The Ukrainians are now fighting back by going to North Africa as well. The Wall Street Journal says that Ukrainians are now fighting Russians in Sudan. It’s a complicated story. Russia’s access to gold in Sudan has helped finance the war against Ukraine. But, Sudan’s leader actually backed Ukraine. Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan is Sudan’s military ruler. He, like many African leaders, has been at risk of a Russian-backed coup for some time.
So, he supplied weapons and support to Ukraine. When Russian forces began to threaten his regime, he asked Ukraine to help him. Ukrainian commandos are now in Sudan fighting Russian-backed rebel forces there. The WSJ quotes Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the Head of HUR, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, saying, “War is a risky business.” “We are in a full-fledged war with Russia…They have units in different parts of the world, and we sometimes try to strike them there.” Ukraine’s war is metastasizing into Africa now.
While these locations don’t get much attention, the reality is that the Global South is experiencing the presence of superpower interests. These places have the potential to trigger wider repercussions that we’ll miss if we keep our focus exclusively on Ukraine and Gaza."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/the-cold-war-in-hot-places
2. Another example of failed US statecraft. Haiti. This is all the fault of the woke State department.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wnyvCjkOkI
3. Scary new developments from the Russian military. Never underestimate your enemy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LFPeyPNXDkc&t=300s
4. This is a great overview of the latest on what's up in cultural & creative businesses.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IXO-bI85ijo&t=28s
5. Good discussion on what’s happening in geopolitics right now. Scary times to say the least.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=usDv4JYX9mY&t=2s
6. "Trump badly needs money; his campaign is hurting for funds and he’s in legal trouble as well. Given that, plus his record of corruption, it’s absolutely plausible that he’d sell out to an ally of the Chinese Communist Party for a few bucks. The theory is bolstered by the fact that former Trump advisor Kellyanne Conway is being paid by the Club for Growth to advance ByteDance’s interests on Capitol Hill; Jeff Yass is the Club’s biggest donor.
The TikTok bill’s conservative champions thus abruptly found the rug pulled out from under their feet. The bill might still pass, but given how House Republicans lined up behind Trump on Ukraine aid, it’s fair to say that its future is now much more in doubt.
If the bill gets defeated, it won’t just be the embarrassment of a lifetime for China hawks who placed their hopes in Trump. It will allow an engine of propaganda and spyware to continue to compromise America’s national security. And it will show that the U.S.’ position in the emerging cold war is perilously weak.
Why are both TikTok’s current management and CCP mouthpieces so desperate to prevent a sale? After all, TikTok would still exist, and ByteDance would get tens of billions of dollars in cash. There’s only one answer that makes sense: Chinese authorities believe that TikTok is an important tool for influencing public opinion in the United States."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/trump-just-rug-pulled-the-china-hawks
7. "Say no to more chores and activities. Let go of FOMO. Do good work that moves the needle instead of work that just shows you’re working.
And how do we prevent a “Revenge of the MORE”?
Jim Collins, author of “Good to Great”, says that a “to-do” list isn’t the only thing that’s valuable. Sometimes it can be even more beneficial to have a “not-to-do” list.
When doing case studies on how 11 companies went from mediocrity to top performers he found, “my research team and I were struck by how many of the big decisions were not what to do, but what to stop doing.”
The companies turned themselves around more effectively not by doing more, new things but by subtracting the bad behaviors. And this can also work for “You, Inc.” It doesn’t just prevent the negative activities but also frees up more time for what’s effective and what makes you happy. Make a “not-to-do” list from your biggest time wasters and the things that drive you crazy and suddenly doing the good stuff seems a lot easier.
Often, the biggest step is just giving yourself permission to subtract. When you do, it’s like you’ve been wearing a backpack full of bricks and you’ve just discovered you can take it off. You feel lighter, freer. You realize that all this time, you’ve been running a race nobody forced you to enter. It’s like discovering a new planet where time moves at a reasonable pace.
Let’s strip away the excess, the clutter, both physical and metaphorical. In subtracting, we might just find something more valuable than what we’re giving up. We might find a bit of peace, a bit of space, and maybe, just maybe, a bit of ourselves that got lost under all that stuff…
I could write a few more paragraphs but you get it.
Sometimes less really is more."
https://bakadesuyo.com/2024/03/less-is-more/
8. "So here's my attempt at a key takeaway:
“Understand what everyone is thinking about, and then find what is actually true by understanding where that thinking could be wrong.”
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/intellectual-seat-belts
9. "I'll conclude with this: there is ALWAYS an opportunity to build a massively successful business. Like I said before; the age-old mission of any entrepreneur is to identify opportunities and take advantage of them. All of these canaries represent potential weaknesses to incumbents, but you're not limited to just waiting for big companies to get cancelled, or for the kick-off of World War 3.
One of the biggest opportunities seems to be in-line with a time-tested recipe. Looking for dinosaur incumbents that are far from dynamic, but who represent massive pools of revenue ripe for the taking. Understanding why a category has remained under-innovated is more critical than ever because if it was easy, it would have been reinvented already."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/the-age-of-incumbents
10. Lots of interesting thoughts on where the world is going. Commodities, gold, BTC and CBDC's. America as the Spanish empire not the Roman Empire.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6pHE5LCarI
11. A global macro view. Net net, financial weakness is leading us from a unipolar world to a multipolar one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiaEiz5SLs0
12. Marc Faber is a global investing legend. I don't agree with some of his views but like his adventurous spirit. Ultimate value investor.
Identifies Colombia, Turkey, Uzbekistan, Iraq, Thailand as interesting markets for assets.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7JLJxA5H5Hw
13. Strong case that De-Dollarization is happening.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1s1CorH4X8
14. Lots of gems of wisdom here. Tai Lopez drops some knowledge.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHBl1gIthKY&t=316s
15. Solid discussion on VC math and portfolio strategy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPa-_UyHgRA
16. This is such a great discussion on what’s what in tech land.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbn17ZlB24Y
17. "The most valuable firms are a function of the resources and activities dominating the economy. We have evolved from an agrarian economy to an industrial one to one that runs on oil, then services and now … attention. U.S. Steel, Saudi Aramco, and Alphabet created unprecedented shareholder value as they commanded the seminal resource of their respective eras.
Today the most valuable consumer companies monetize attention. And Reddit commands more attention in the U.S. than any company not owned by Alphabet. If attention is the new oil, then Reddit is Saudi Arabia, and resting beneath the platform is a sea of attention the size of the Ghawar oil field."
https://www.profgalloway.com/icebreaker
18. This is an important discussion. New space race being a driver for technology advancement.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vINC342t54
19. "There is a lot of ruin in a country." Moving from a unipolar to the multipolar world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ci_96tBw2s0
20. Tuzla, Bosnia. Most affordable European city for digital nomads and remote workers.
https://www.travelandleisure.com/cheapest-european-cities-for-digital-nomads-remote-workers-8599393
21. Great guide to hiring execs for your startup well.
"So much of startups is about making quick calls from your gut. Seeing an opportunity and going all-in before you lose the chance. Founders get used to this, and then get tripped up by exec hiring, which rewards thoughtfulness and thoroughness. A bad hire is much worse than another quarter with no hire. Design a good process, take your time, and be sure you’re getting someone great."
https://www.harryglaser.com/hire-leaders-with-at-least-one-5-year-run/
22. "Correlation isn’t causation, but there’s good reason to think that physical (“atoms”) technologies are more conducive to compounding productivity improvements than digital (“bits”) ones. Even AI will have to build a lot of real physical stuff in order to fulfill its promise as a GDP accelerator. Obviously there are a lot of other things that affect physical goods production — NIMBYism, environmental regulation, trade patterns, and so on — but energy availability is probably a key input.
With ultra-cheap and ultra-portable energy from solar power and batteries, who knows what we could achieve — cheap desalination, cheap self-driving cars and e-bikes everywhere, personal air transport, super-powered appliances, robots everywhere, and so on.
But this utopia is under threat, from both increasing demand and limited supply. On the demand side, we’ve invented new digital technologies that could potentially use up arbitrarily large amounts of electricity: Bitcoin and AI. And on the supply side, there are a bunch of bad policies that make it difficult to connect new power sources to the U.S. electrical grid.
Bad laws and regulation prevent humans from enjoying the benefits of technological innovation. We saw this with the Soviet Union and other communist regimes in the 20th century. We saw this when overregulation halted the building of nuclear plants in the 1980s. And if we don’t act now to reform our dysfunctional regulatory systems, we could see it again with the solar and battery boom of the 2020s."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/three-threats-to-the-age-of-energy
23. "Biden’s conflicted strategy reflects the realities of contemporary coalition building: when it comes to countering China and Russia, democratic alliances go only so far. Biden’s approach also reflects a deeper, more enduring tension.
American interests are inextricably tied to American values: the United States typically enters into great-power competition because it fears mighty autocracies will otherwise make the world unsafe for democracy. But an age of conflict invariably becomes, to some degree, an age of amorality because the only way to protect a world fit for freedom is to court impure partners and engage in impure acts.
Expect more of this. If the stakes of today’s rivalries are as high as Biden claims, Washington will engage in some breathtakingly cynical behavior to keep its foes contained. Yet an ethos of pure expediency is fraught with dangers, from domestic disillusion to the loss of the moral asymmetry that has long amplified U.S. influence in global affairs. Strategy, for a liberal superpower, is the art of balancing power without subverting democratic purpose. The United States is about to rediscover just how hard that can be."
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/age-amorality-liberal-brands
24. So much to learn here. Masterclass on building community based businesses and Personal Holding Companies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdnX63OEP5I&t=1871s
25. Important global macro discussion. Japan, Turkey, Gold, Uranium and natural resources.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4HE-DFXXN9c&t=745s
26. This is the new zeitgeist in startups and its good thing.
"Focusing on capital efficiency and alternative growth methods, particularly the emphasis on customer funding and increasing sales, is becoming more prevalent in the tech industry. This trend towards optimizing resources and exploring diverse funding avenues is likely to gain popularity over time. More entrepreneurs will strive to only raise one round of financing their whole journey."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/03/16/only-one-round-of-financing/
27. "So a word of caution as we step back and appreciate the professionalization of startups. There is a spectrum that exists where playbooks can be transformative or manipulative. As the game becomes more well-known, people start playing on the weaknesses of the game itself. And that can leave people vulnerable.
So learn from the people, processes, and playbooks that have been explored. But don't turn them into dogma."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/revisiting-the-professionalization
28. "In Eriksen’s opinion, the seven liberal arts (or “liberating arts,” not to be confused with the ideological monstrosity found in a specific department of formal education taught by those who are not liberated themselves) are, quote:
Logic: how to derive truth from known facts
Statistics: how to understand the implications of data
Rhetoric: how to persuade, and spot persuasion tactics
Research: how to gather information on an unknown subject
(Practical) Psychology: how to discern and understand the true motives of others
Investment: how to manage and grow existing assets
Agency: how to make decisions about what course to pursue, and proactively take action to pursue it.
I would encourage you to hold these in your mind while pushing into the unknown.
If you prepare yourself with a future-proof mind, what technical skills will be lucrative or useful in the far future are irrelevant because you can adapt as necessary.
To learn the liberating arts, these are the skills I learned:
Marketing & sales – if you don’t know how to attract and persuade, you will never get what you want, and your only option will be for an employer (or the government) to give it to you. (Rhetoric, psychology)
Writing & thinking – the ability to communicate the value in your unique mind. The foundation of getting in front of other people. (Logic, research)
Entrepreneurship – the process of taking my future into my own hands, hunting for my survival, and building products that I want to see in the world (that others care about). (Statistics, agency, investment)
Some may say things like entrepreneurship aren’t a “skill,” but I would argue that any mental process that becomes more efficient with time is a skill.
Everything is a skill, but most people don’t treat their life as a practice."
https://thedankoe.com/letters/the-future-proof-skill-stack-learn-in-this-order
29. George Friedman gives such an interesting view on geopolitics and has one of the best understandings of the world. The ultimate pragmatist.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChoePtun3kg
30. "Great startup founders are pattern breakers.
They develop pattern-breaking ideas that differ significantly from our usual practices. Pattern-breaking founders challenge the usual, offering fresh views and solutions that depart from old methods. To most of us, their ideas seem far-fetched, perhaps even foolish, because they’re so different. Airbnb offered a completely different approach to accommodation than traditional hotels. Ridesharing introduced a brand new way for people to travel. Salesforce challenged us to rethink how we used and paid for business software.
But ideas alone don’t shape the future. Those who break the pattern must do more and take differentiated actions to make others believe. Their radical ideas clash with existing beliefs. People usually push back when their perspectives are challenged. So, pattern-breaking founders must find early believers who see the world as they do. They’ll also meet harsh critics, some clinging to the old for personal gain and others who don’t want to change."
https://medium.com/@m2jr/pattern-breaking-startup-ideas-e98578043e28
31. Excellent discussion on how to build your personal brand from an expert.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Seb-TYmwO2A
32. "One final point: This risk of a future fiscal tightening is one of the reasons why I do expect the YCC framework will be maintained – why give up a proven and very powerful policy tool when it does not cost you anything.
As long as you set the YCC ‘reference rate’ above the likely free-market rate you’re not obstruction free market price discovery; but when you want to exercise control you can do so easily by forcing a flatter yields curve – YCC effectively gives the BoJ two policy tools, the standard short-term policy rate anchor and a long-bond potential cap. A tool that, when needed, allows to control the slope of the yield curve –and thus net interest margins for the banking system – is a good one to have, desho?
In an age where policy makers around the world are looking for more potential control against free market volatility and disruption, why would the BoJ relinquish a powerful policy tool that, under Governor Ueda’s leadership, has actually re-vitalized private liquidity provision and true price discovery. And it’s a nice zero-cost insurance policy – just in case the market gets overly worried about run-away inflation and the BoJ doing ‘too little, too late’."
https://japanoptimist.substack.com/p/go-for-it-ueda-sensei
33. I appreciate Justin Waller. Good positive model for young men.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjyO3XKR8GQ
34. Developments being overlooked in the media. Sea-drones. Implication is Ukraine is winning the sea battle even though they don't have a navy. And showing major weakness on part of Russia's logistics chain to Crimea.
Climbing Mountains, Slaying Dragons: Carving Your Own Path
I remember when I was living in Taiwan back in 1998, trying to start my corporate career, lost and very poor. I was invited to a pool party in a very ritzy area called Tianmu. Like many of the Taiwanese rich, they were stealth wealth. We showed up at this nondescript house but once inside it was this immensely impressive house with a large pool in the back.
It was hosted by a friend of my roommate. Nice guy, found out he was a scion of a big local company. He was shipped off to the USA at a young age, to a private boarding school, followed by university and business school. Ended up working for a few years at the Boston Consulting Group before coming home to take over the family business.
I was so envious of him back then. How lucky was he to have a clear set future? And inherited wealth to boot.
But fast forward 25 years later. I now realize that blessing is actually a curse. Why?
He had no agency in his life, no real control of his future. He had to walk a path set for him by his family. Additionally, because he inherited the company and wealth, I doubt many of the workers and executives would truly respect him. Even if he is super smart, hardworking and expands the business successfully, there will always be a nagging question in people’s minds and on his own.
I understand how it could be a comfort for some people to have their entire future planned for them. But every man has a drive, a drive to create and build. Yet this drive is only really engaged when it’s towards goals they create themselves. And also it needs to feel earned. This might be why so many rich kids end up destroying themselves with hedonistic pleasures like gambling, girls and drugs. They haven’t earned or accomplished anything nor do they have any real goals, so that drive gets used in listless and degenerate ways.
I guess, looking back now, I’m the lucky one. I had no clear path set for me so I had to figure it out myself. And with hard work and many great mentors and smart people around me, I found my way eventually. Thus, everything that I accomplished and have was in pursuit of goals I set for myself and attributed to me. Not anyone else. All the mistakes and failures are on me. But consequently any success that happens was due to me as well. I definitely feel like I earned whatever I have (for better or worse).
So my advice for anyone just starting off in their career, understand that it’s okay to be a little bit lost. Learn about yourself, take some risks and try different gigs and opportunities. And understand that this is a long game. You may not see the end result for a long time but as long as you are learning, progressing and enjoying yourself, it will be okay in the end.
Be like olden day explorers who went off to discover the physical and mental frontiers. They set their own direction, charted their own maps, carved their own route through the jungle. So go forth and conquer. Find your own path.
Steel Sharpens Steel: Picking your Tribe and Environment
I spend plenty of time thinking about personal development and excellence. I think a lot of the quote: “Talent is everywhere but opportunity is not.” Why do some people do well in life and others do not? Is it luck? Is it nature or nurture? Maybe all of this.
I recall a conversation with my partner Carlos at Diaspora Ventures. For those who don’t know, we invest in European pre-seed founders who are targeting the US market. At that moment, we’d done about 40+ deals and looked at thousands of startups. We were looking through our portfolio and like in all portfolios there were clear winners and clear losers. As we dug into the numbers, it became obvious what the difference was. The founders and teams who were based in the US far outperformed the teams based in Europe by a long country mile, whether in plain traction, growth or even learning curve.
Why is this? I think it all comes down to being in the market. Being in the environment, surrounded by people moving at a faster and more intense pace.
This is relevant even at a micro-city level, not just country level. The famed VC Bill Gurley said when asked where he would start a company today. “Place can be very impactful so if I were a 22 year old founder starting something, I’d go to Silicon Valley just because it would increase your odds of success.”
When asked about Miami, LA, Boston? He responded: “I think many cities, whether it’s Austin or Miami, they have a problem that sounds ironic. They are a lot of fun. And so there is a question whether you attract the very most determined founders. Which may explain why Seattle has done so well. Not that it’s not a wonderful place but for two thirds of the year it’s dark outside. I think there are alot of contagious qualities to successful startups. Constantly around other people all in the same game is super helpful.”
As the title says, steel sharpens steel. As Codie Sanchez said: “Go where the game is being played.” You have to be in the middle of the game and always playing. If you want to get better, you play against better players. This is true whether in chess, judo, pickleball or tennis. The power of osmosis and seeing excellence helps you drive your own standards up. Being in the best and toughest place you end up learning and understanding what is global maximum, not local maximum.
There was nothing in my childhood that pointed to where I ended up today. I can say, almost everyone I grew up with in Canada was far smarter, disciplined and talented than I was. The only difference was I moved to Taiwan and then Silicon Valley which showed me how big the world was. It provided me opportunities to put my drive and tremendous capacity for work against them, so I could learn. Thankfully this worked as a little bit of this rubbed off on me.
I was lucky to join great companies, get good mentors and surround myself with people smarter and better than me in business and investing. You become who you hang out with.
And without this sounding too transactional you need to be with good, strong people. Preferable diverse people of diverse backgrounds and industries. I hang out with people who are startup people, VCs, hedge fund investors, agency & Holding Company business owners, people who run family offices.
My personality criteria for who I consider for my tribe:
Does this person have ambition?
Are they honorable and reliable?
Can I learn from them?
Can I help them in any way? As friendship is a two way street.
Do they meet the airport test? Ie. If you were stuck at the airport together for 6 hours would it be an ordeal or not. Preferably not an ordeal, of course.
Hanging out with ambitious, smart people is always good. And it’s why I still continue to live in San Francisco despite its very visible decline in quality of life.
Place really matters. Your tribe really matters.
So really pay attention to these two factors if you want to have excellence in your life.
“Sly”: Hard Earned Success
I finally finished the Netflix documentary on Sylvester Stallone. A poor kid growing up with a physically abusive father, he was the last person anyone expected to become a Hollywood movie star. But boy has he ever. Not just a movie star, but writer and director who has started 3 major franchises, Rocky, Rambo and the Expendables. And maybe more impressively, done this over a 50 year old career. It’s pretty amazing and inspiring.
He did not fit the mold of movie star so he wrote scripts and he had so much belief in himself that even when the studios were willing to buy the script of Rocky for $500,000, which was a lot of money at that time, and especially as he was broke. He was unwilling to sell it unless they were willing to allow him to star in the movie. Talk about betting on yourself.
And the rest is history. This led to his breakout and fame. He was relentless.
"I am not the richest, smartest, or most talented person in the world, but I succeed because I keep going and going and going."
He never quit.
"Every time I've failed, people had me out for the count, but I always come back."
He was willing to experiment throughout his career and try new genres like comedy. Even though these didn’t work out, he learned.
“They said, ‘Look, why don’t you do what you do maybe what you were meant to do?’ Going back to my roots you might say. To the point I said ‘Okay, Action, action, action.’
I realized at that point, it’s important to stay in your own lane, to become a specialist. Like an artist. You have that style, you’re a Rothko, and no one can do Rothko better than Rothko.
Everyone goes: ‘Oh We can do the full spectrum.’ We can be anything. No you can’t. You have certain manifest weaknesses and great strengths. And I said, focus on the strengths. Don’t sit there and try to do Shakespeare when you look like me.”
The magic was that he was able to use his writing and acting to transmute the pain he felt and disappointment he had in life. Something we all feel sometimes.
He said: “I try to take something that is what I wish I had done in real life, but I wasn’t able to do that in reality. And so, quite often, I would do it theatrically, magically.
You know, unfortunately, you put things before your family, and the repercussions are quite radical and devastating.”
And he talks alot about regret and it’s something I feel many times in my life. Especially with family and especially with your kids.
“There’s always that regret. I could have learned so much more if I hadn’t been so self absorbed and dealing with other people. You think about what you should have done at this age. And now they are this age. What did I mess up on? I’m there making a stupid movie instead of making their life.
They make me happy. They make me really sad. They bring me emotion. I had to almost lose it to respect it. So the act of loving my children now, actually taking such stock and value of the time…..Jesus….it’s so callous and brutal. And it sneaks up on you, and you go: ‘Okay, time to check out, Sly.’
Now it’s a matter of, I want to be the juggler. A really good juggler. You know, just….family, life, children, wife, you know? Art, just everything. Just….in balance.”
There is a deep lesson in that. So many of us career driven Type A people learn, always the hard way. Yet the way he is able to convert all his angst, pain and regret and lessons and turn it into something good. That’s something we can also learn from too.
“But if you have no guidance, and you have to go through life devalued every inch of the way, that leaves a hole. And that hole is never filled. What I can do is fill it through imagination. I want to somehow show hope. I’m in the hope business, and I just hate sad endings. Sorry. Shoot me.”
Well said. I recommend the documentary and hope folks check it out and learn from it like I did.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads April 7th, 2024
Life isn't as serious as the mind makes it out to be — Eckhart Tolle
This is an important post. Lots of people are suffering silently. Check in with your friends and family.
https://lifemathmoney.com/we-have-to-look-out-for-our-brothers/
2. "War is an ugly, brutal, and savage thing. It is also an eternal part of the human condition. Wars are best not started, as horror comes with it.
A just, compassionate nation will always ensure that it is strong and ready for war because war will surely come. Someone will win that war. It can be the just and compassionate nation, or it can be the aggressive and brutal nation. For a just nation to win, it must be prepared to be more aggressive and in a fashion, as brutal - in context and constraints - than its enemy.
The future is not granted, it is won and maintained through the successful execution of warfare."
https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/war-is-brutally-honest-name-it-as
3. A conversation with a true American hero.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZ15ydAvR0M
4. This is not good. I guess demographics are destiny.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kdp6z2yC2R4
5. Mike Maples Jr is a legend in Silicon Valley and has been a mentor to many new VCs over the last decade.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_itAzi2mZk
6. So many great insights for new fund managers on the art of venture.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpCua9VvTLw
7. I love Buenos Aires. I really need to go back soon.
"Whether you're drawn to the vibrant digital nomad scene, the world-renowned culinary experiences, or the intoxicating rhythm of tango, Buenos Aires is your stage. So, as you contemplate the cost of living in Buenos Aires, remember that here, in the heart of Argentina, every peso spent is an investment in a life less ordinary.
Pack your bags, embrace the tango, and let Buenos Aires welcome you with open arms and a promise of unforgettable adventures."
https://www.remoteyear.com/blog/cost-of-living-in-argentina
8. "In this new age, I believe that venture investors need to be, first and foremost, investors. This may seem obvious, and likely is to those who have been in the business beyond this cycle, but core investor skillsets like financial acumen are rarer than I would expect given the amount of capital our industry manages.
Over indexing on marketability > math has inhibited a focus on the fundamentals of these businesses and that advice trickles into the companies and their cultures. We’ve seen it with several of the founders that we’re friendly with who were urged by their previous boards to continuously raise capital (i.e., market themselves and their companies), rather than focusing on running a great business. This destroyed a tremendous amount of shareholder value (especially for founders, employees and early investors) when these companies were forced to reckon with the public markets.
My belief is that the future of investing in this business requires a reversion to the fundamentals — knowing how to build a company capable of producing long-term FCF and being able to evaluate a company for its potential to do so. This may be less exciting, but I think it will drive far greater returns in the long haul as it has in other asset classes.
That isn’t to say that investors should abandon the hallmark skill sets that separate VC from others, but there is a tremendous amount to learn from the practices of other asset classes and believe that the best investors for this next generation of digital investing will bridge these capabilities together."
https://medium.com/@EqualVentures/evolution-of-investors-in-the-new-digital-age-b6edf0e5dd59
9. This was a fun discussion on personal finance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4iPHetTgaI&t=4663s
10. "So-called “seniors” are reliable voters, while young people aren’t, and so this perverse incentive ensures that seniors vote, effectively, to extract rent for themselves from young people through the state. This is reflected in voting intentions: people over 54 are disproportionately likely to vote for the Socialist Party, while those who are under 25 are disproportionately unlikely to vote for it.
This measured effect, if anything, understates the underlying reality, as young people vote more with their feet than with their ballots. They are a large part of those abstaining to vote and a large part of those leaving the country for other EU member states and beyond. One in three Portuguese people between the ages of 15 and 39 have left the country.
The most educated and accomplished are, of course, the first to leave in pursuit of opportunities elsewhere. This dismal story, in its broad strokes, is not unique to Portugal, or even southern Europe, but increasingly sounds familiar in aging societies from Germany to Japan, if not even the United States."
https://letter.palladiummag.com/p/early-article-who-is-portugal-for
11. "In a contested maritime century, we should start thinking about navies as the ultimate national security insurance policy. Like any insurance, they demand regular investments against risks that are unlikely but potentially grave. Navies work best to deter would-be aggression, but the industrial base to generate their capabilities underwrites military credibility. Crucially, when all else fails, that credibility stands to make certain that in the hour of need, the hardest challenges will be met and overcome."
https://time.com/6836406/naval-power-us-china-russia/
12. "But on closer examination it seems woke lunacy is only a symptom of the company’s far greater problems. First, Google is now facing the classic Innovator’s Dilemma, in which the development of a new and important technology well within its capability undermines its present business model. Second, and probably more importantly, nobody’s in charge.
Over the last week, in communication with a flood of Googlers eager to speak on the issues facing their company — from management on almost every major product, to engineering, sales, trust and safety, publicity, and marketing — employees painted a far bleaker portrait of the company than is often reported: Google is a runaway, cash-printing search monopoly with no vision, no leadership, and, due to its incredibly siloed culture, no real sense of what is going on from team to team.
The only thing connecting employees is a powerful, sprawling HR bureaucracy that, yes, is totally obsessed with left-wing political dogma. But the company’s zealots are only capable of thriving because no other fount of power asserts, or even attempts to assert, any kind of meaningful influence. The phrase “culture of fear” was used by almost everyone I spoke with, and not only to explain the dearth of resistance to the company’s craziest DEI excesses, but to explain the dearth of innovation from what might be the highest concentration of talented technologists in the world.
Employees, at every level, and for almost every reason, are afraid to challenge the many processes which have crippled the company — and outside of promotion season, most are afraid to be noticed. In the words of one senior engineer, “I think it’s impossible to ship good products at Google.” Now, with the company’s core product threatened by a new technology release they just botched on a global stage, that failure to innovate places the company’s existence at risk."
https://www.piratewires.com/p/google-culture-of-fear
13. Valuable discussion on global macro. Tech and crypto are well positioned in the long run.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9xiwTLaN5w
14. "There are two reasons people start to do things out of order inside a company. The first is that many people just want to skip the boring building blocks to do something innovative, which is entirely backwards. Nailing all the fundamentals around building a product or a growth loop is what most of the time enables good innovation.
If you don’t have strong product/market fit for your core product, an AI feature isn’t going to save that. Talk to customers! Why aren’t they sticking around? If your pages aren’t getting indexed and you have a bunch of duplicate content, don’t think about microsites or advanced link building ideas. Fix your site!
The second reason this happens is if you have worked on the basics in the past, you don’t have a good process to regularly audit whether they are still working as designed."
https://caseyaccidental.substack.com/p/wood-grain-steering-wheels
15. Discussion on Xi & China's future. Really important topic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Romrz7g-PSg
16. One of the most underrated B2B VCs in Silicon Valley. This is a great discussion on the art and science of venture.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b92gl7YcDYQ
17. "If you really wanted to hedge your cheap cost of living (thanks to the socialists) then this could be done by taking a long option on some Argentine stocks. The two that stick out to me are of course in the energy sector. One is a more leverage play and the other is a safer play out of the two. I need to pay my thanks to Kuppy, BowTiedMara, and Taylor Selden on X (Twitter) for bringing these two to my attention. Check them out below the paid content wall.
The bottom line of this article, Argentina will still likely be immediately cheap post-election if Milei’s chainsaw proposal is initiated. Patricia Bullrich is the other contender and if she wins she will initiate similar policies to Milei, just slower. If somehow the socialists win again then I go on with my time as I have over the last year under hyperinflation."
https://geologotrader.substack.com/p/how-does-it-look-for-argentina-as
18. "Galatioto said, “I have never seen the level of demand I’m seeing. The pent-up hunger is incredible.” He pointed out the importance of scarcity in driving prices. Unlike the markets for real estate (“If you run out, you just build more of it”) or tech companies (“There are a bazillion of them”), when it comes to sports teams, demand vastly exceeds supply.
There are only 30 MLB teams, 30 NBA teams, 32 NFL teams, and 32 NHL teams. Including MLS and the WNBA, there are only 165 of these assets in circulation. This at a moment when over 2,600 global billionaires prowl the earth, hunting for one of a kind trophies. Charles Baker, a lawyer at Sidley Austin who specializes in sports acquisitions, expressed the scarcity aspect thusly: “You might have the biggest boat, biggest house, biggest jet—but there’s only one Yankees, only one Cowboys. They’re collector’s items.”
The people who make their way to Galatioto’s office tend to be wealthy, now, in ways they were not before. “Even if you’re a rich dude, you may not be rich enough,” Galatioto told me. “It’s a very painful message to deliver to someone who’s worth $500 million—that they really can’t afford it. People who are worth $500 million don’t take that news well.”
There are options available to the $500 million crowd. Minority stakes in teams (five percent here, 10 percent there) often get traded in what are called limited-partnership deals without any public fanfare. “People can buy $100 million, $200 million, $300 million of a sports franchise and it probably won’t even make the newspaper,” said Galatioto."
https://www.gq.com/story/how-to-buy-a-pro-sports-team
19. Another great episode: It's a great what’s up on the Edge of the Internet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jlqv4Euhm7Q
20. Hit your enemies wherever you can. War is global now, not always localized.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IcLabESiOcg
21. I love Japan.
"In Japan, by contrast, you see strangers in your neighborhood all the time — in the convenience store, in the noodle shop, or walking down the street from their own houses to those shops and restaurants. Even if you don’t like to meet strangers or say hi to your neighbors, it’s nice to see strangers and to see your neighbors. It creates a feeling of communality — of shared civilization and community — even if no words are spoken.
This is why in Japan, even if you live in a tiny apartment, it doesn’t feel like you live in a tiny, lonely space — you’re out and about so much that it feels like you live in a great big open space with lots of other people. American suburbia can feel confining and cramped because no matter how big your house is, there’s nothing and nobody outside those walls; in urban Japan, even with a tiny apartment, you occupy a great big neighborhood. That is very freeing.
Of course, all of this requires something besides mixed-use zoning — it requires high commercial density."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-japanese-cities-are-such-nice
22. One of the best conversations on what’s happening in tech from some of the best investors in the business.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bD1rrBBcJSA
23. "While there are countless ways to build great companies (and certainly many ways that do NOT fit this framework), we’ve found the steps above to be helpful in establishing some order from within the chaos of starting, building and scaling a company.
As a firm that believes heavily in hypothesis-based investing, we like to see founders test/validate each of these through the various stages of their capital raising lifecycle and we generally find ourselves investing with visibility into a near-term flywheel and/or early signs of a potential moat. We often use this framework with founders to determine the key hypotheses they will need to prove out for their business at various stages.
While there are indeed incredible companies that generate near-term visibility of economic moats before even launching a product (showing great thoughtfulness in product design, strategy and execution), more often see it requiring multiple, methodical steps to unlock moats.
Proving/disproving these fundamental hypotheses requires immense focus and we try to align the Objectives and Key Results (OKRs) of the business to these hypotheses to ensure everyone in the company is squarely focused on their achievement."
https://medium.com/@EqualVentures/a-playbook-for-value-creation-9b7bdbb83878
24. We men need to be more like Tim Kennedy. Many of us let fear lead us.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJnghC36VBU
25. Always a good conversation on trending topics in Silicon Valley.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jf1UyfEtgXw
26. "People conflate a lack of focus with a lack of talent. Intelligence and talent are correlated with success, but the strongest signal of future success is your perseverance and resilience: what the books in airport bookstores call “grit.”
Unless you are supremely disciplined, your career will have to be something that gives you some enjoyment. But don’t mistake focus for your “passion.” People who tell you to follow your passion are already rich. Follow your talent. The accoutrements that accompany being great at something (relevance, admiration, camaraderie, money) will make you passionate about whatever “it” is.
Focus on putting yourself in a position to be financially successful. Get certified: In a digital world, much of the corporate world decides whether to swipe right or left based on the logos (aspirational universities/firms, vocational certifications, etc.) on your LinkedIn page.
Sector dynamics will trump your talent. (I realize how awful that sounds.) However, someone of average talent at Google has done better over the past decade than someone great at General Motors. Be thoughtful … any opportunity you have when you’re young to choose among different paths is a profound blessing."
https://www.profgalloway.com/the-algebra-of-wealth-3
27. A masterclass on B2B sales.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9101jnEN80
28. "Our competitors were going big, and instead of us going bigger, we went more niche. Human nature is to immediately want to one-up the opponent. Entrepreneurs would do well fight that urge and evaluate all the options."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/03/09/when-a-competitor-goes-big-dont-automatically-go-bigger/
29. All startup founders should read this.
https://www.startuphacks.vc/blog/18-mistakes-when-pitching-vc
30. Frank is the OG of Fintech investing. One of the most profound thinkers in Fintech vc.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBIFs9badGU
31. "When it comes to our longevity, there’s an age-old question of nature versus nurture: Are we destined for the path that’s been laid out by our DNA? Or do our everyday choices—what we eat, how we move, and who we allow to cause us stress—play a more significant role?
A growing body of research suggests that while genetics may predispose us to certain diseases, adopting healthy habits can help mitigate risks in some cases, even potentially altering how our genes express themselves (a growing field of study in longevity called epigenetics").
According to a 2016 review, genetic factors only contribute 20 to 30 percent to the variations observed in the life spans of identical twins. Lifestyle and environment dictate the rest."
https://www.gq.com/story/genetics-and-longevity
32. "Agency is the skill that has built the world around you, an all-purpose life intensifier that lets you make your corner of it more like what you want it to be, whether that’s professional, relational, aesthetic, whatever. Build a better mousetrap. Have an enviable marriage. Start a country. No one is born with it, everyone can learn it, and it’s never too late."
https://every.to/p/how-to-be-more-agentic
33. "Great marketing machines are like Costco. There is no magic wand. There is no secret lever. It’s about 50 little things, all working together. And that’s one reason why people have trouble understanding them. This may be obvious, but I’d never previously seen it so clearly. CMOs show the funnel slide in board meetings with stages and conversion rates.
But no one really understands the machine. They ask a few random questions, usually about channels. The inevitable attribution conversation follows. You can almost feel them searching for the one thing. (Or the one cock up.) But in this case, there isn’t one."
https://kellblog.com/2024/03/09/great-marketing-machines-are-like-costco/
34. This is still very relevant. I'd add learn tactical shooting skills.
35. "Making sense of North Korea is hard. In an age where the prime struggle is too much information — infinite content creation, misinformation, a news cycle that never stops — North Korea stands apart. What we do know about the country comes almost entirely secondhand, through the stories of defectors and the hard work of professional North Korean watchers.
But it’s only ever a composite guess, an incomplete portrait of a nuclear state with about 25 million civilian hostages. Still, the people inside are not the mindless drones that Western culture imagines them to be. Agency, however slight, exists and should be recognized.
There is one enduring truth, Baek told me: North Koreans are experts in survival. They have a saying, she said, that captures the population’s well-honed self-preservation skills. Here, when assessing danger, I might say I look over my shoulder. For North Koreans? “We have three shoulders.”
https://restofworld.org/2024/what-i-missed-when-i-went-to-north-korea/
36. "Looking ahead, the road to economic stability and prosperity for Argentina is undoubtedly long and uncertain. The government's willingness to tackle tough economic issues head-on and the initial positive outcomes are steps in the right direction. Popular support for dramatic change and the adaptability of businesses to the country's economic fluctuations are also reasons for cautious optimism."
https://www.markmobius.com/news-events/argentina-time-will-tell
Upside or Downside, a Blessing or a Curse: It All Depends on Your Perspective
I’ve started reading a fascinating book called “The Upside of Stress” and it posits that the way you interpret stress changes the effect it has on you. If you think stress is bad for you, and is something to be avoided, then it will be bad for your health. On the other hand, if you believe it’s good for you, it will turn into something beneficial for your health. There is research in the book that backs this. A total game changer.
This is relevant to many aspects of your life. I think about how this has colored my life in mainly bad ways. Growing up in Canada, in a financially challenged immigrant family, everything was looked at in a negative light. This is a very Canadian and British outlook. Scarcity mentality occurs in this environment understandably. Glass half empty, not full. I’m still working on fixing this myself.
As I grow my business empire I run a fine & tight budget with clear plans. I leave a limited buffer and almost all of it is allocated in business costs, travel costs, and of course family costs. But as they say, if you want God to laugh, show him your plans.
Something always goes wrong with this.
I have to make some super expensive flight ticket changes because of some family thing. My family also tends to be pretty careless with money as I spoiled them. And that’s your job as man to provide well for your family so i cannot complain (too much).
I almost always have to cover some surprise costs and some accounts receivable payments are usually very late.
Or the HVAC at one of my rental properties craps out and I need to pay for a brand new one.
Not cheap by the way. And even worse if it’s unaccounted for in my plan.
Tenants stop paying. Or some of your startup investments go bust.
I tend to be very rigid and an intense planner. I like things to run smoothly and life can be a challenge to this. Any deviation drives me nuts or just plain gets me down. It actually enrages me.
However, now I try (stress try) to just roll with it. If you are running a startup when does anything go right? In fact, when has any of your life plans gone exactly as planned? If it did, life would turn out to be very boring in the end. You get both good and bad surprises. Novelty is a driver for us humans.
I also understand that this is the cost of doing business. And because many of these surprise costs are related to business, it shows growth. Plus they are ultimately tax deductible and you get it back in some other way. It’s great to be a business owner in America!
I try to look at these setbacks and challenges as good for me. Setbacks are normal. They highlight issues in my thinking and plan. Unexpected budget overages mean I’ve made some miscalculations that I need to fix. Family costs overages just means I need to go out and make a whole lot more money. Usually by building a better system or doing better investments. Or that there is some breakage in my present business process.
You can always be improving and getting better. These setbacks are the path to more prosperity.
The Iron Law of Human Behavior: Selfishness, Laziness and Incentives
I think in my almost 50 trips around the sun, I think I’ve learned something about society, about people and about business. I started my career in marketing and the key to good marketing is consumer insight. One of the lessons I learned is that you should always assume the customer is lazy, distracted and not a little bit stupid. I don’t think customers are actually stupid but it forces you to simplify and package whatever it is you are selling better. It removes as much friction to the customer understanding and seeing the value. Or that is the theory.
The key to thriving and getting through life successfully is also understanding people around you. Your family, your friends, your business associates, your neighbors and everyone you run into. And how to get along with them.
My mental model is that everyone is in their own world, dealing with their own problems. The excellent Twitter account @Evilsaint said: “Humans are selfish because life is hard. If you’ve never been the selfish type, it’s because life has never been hard.” There is something to this.
I’m a believer in that you give more than you get and I also believe the karma/universe gives back if you do well for others. It is an old Silicon Valley ethos which I will follow to the end.
But at base level, it’s just better to assume that people are always looking out for themselves because that is just how we humans are wired. We humans are also wired to conserve energy which basically drives people to be lazy and not think too much on anything. Thinking burns a surprisingly large amount of calories.
This is where incentives come in. In all my business and not a few personal dealings, I always try to understand “What’s In it for them”. And if we do want to do anything it has to be win-win and have clear incentives for them, and for me to make it work. I’ve stated many times about being long term greedy. This is true.
But this is also a form of laziness, in a good way I would say. I don’t want to waste time on short term things these days. So always try to understand incentives and how to make them work for both sides. You have to make sure your interests are aligned. Otherwise you are wasting your time and energy, something people don’t have much of these days. If you do this, you can increase the odds of success for any relationship, alliance or cooperation.
The Problem with Rage: My Ongoing Process of Anger Management
I think a big part of my momentum in my career and life is due to the massive chip on my shoulder. I’ve considered it an asset for a long time. This rage and anger to prove people wrong by winning. This was the spur to the incredible investments I made in my career and work. 100+ working hours a week. It works until it does not.
But it’s also been a curse. Seeing red when you are thwarted in your plans, in setbacks and when you feel you are treated unfairly. Or worse, dealing with unethical people or idiots.
Another great insight from my friends at the sci-fi series of Warhammer 40k, Dan Abnett’s “The End and the Death.”
“Rage is a weakness in any true warrior. Rage makes a man rash and clumsy, and it diminishes his skill and technique, no matter how highly trained he is. It sucks away finesse. It dilutes focus. It forces errors and overreach, and steals a man’s precision and discipline.
Rage, and the less of control that comes with it, is a self-inflicted wound.”
You need to be calm in times of crisis. So you can see things clearly. It’s easier to solve problems in this mode.
I am starting to fully understand the old Chekist saying by Felix Dzerzhinsky, who started the predecessor to the KGB: that a real “agent must have a cool head, warm heart and clean hands.” Yes, these were awful people but they were damn effective at what they do.
Warm heart means passion and drive but it needs to be properly channeled. That’s where having a calm and clear mind comes to play. Anger and rage only gets you so far and it’s a tool of the young to take action. But as you get older like me, you have to learn to control this or the blowback on your life and career will threaten all the gains you have made. I speak from painful experience as always.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads March 31st, 2024
"You have power over your mind – not outside events. Realize this, and you will find strength." – Marcus Aurelius
"I fear the war will drag on, its costs will grow, and its political impact in Ukraine or Russia will also increase. By 2025, possibly with Donald Trump in the White House, there will be a question of which belligerent is better able to manage the impact at home (keep the economy going, preserve political unity, manage mobilisation requirements and avoid a collapse of morale in the army) and abroad (coalitions for military aid and sanctions enforcement). This year is unlikely to bring anything besides more war and more destruction."
https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/ukraine/2024/02/ukraine-war-second-anniversary-symposium
2. This is absolutely instructive. A must for all B2B founders. Harsh but helpful truths.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMe_FWldQF0&t=751s
3. "Donaldson’s swift rise has been spurred by massive changes in the media landscape where individuals have replaced institutions as the gatekeepers of entertainment and information. He’s proved an adroit Pied Piper, figuring out how to work the YouTube algorithm to hook and keep a crowd. But he’s also disrupting the new ecosystem, showing what’s possible, even far from Hollywood, with a gigantic following.
The ethos of doing things differently, of growing quickly and exponentially, has sparked concern among some about the company’s safety and labor practices. For now, though, the question seems less whether Donaldson will get where he wants to go than where he’s going—what the world he is helping shape will look like.
His sway has grown such that in 2022 he launched a line of snacks, Feastables, that by 2023 was in multiple countries and will have, according to him, $500 million in annual revenue this year. Stars the wattage of Tom Brady and Justin Timberlake now appear in his videos, and the Charlotte Hornets wear a Feastables patch on their shirts. And while he models his career on Steve Jobs, he has a little Melinda French Gates in him too. On a second channel, Beast Philanthropy, he performs outlandish tricks of the charitable sort: rescuing 100 unwanted dogs, giving away 20,000 shoes, helping distribute $30 million worth of food that was going to waste.
In December 2020, he started a food-delivery service, MrBeast Burger. It grew to a reported 1,700 virtual locations and $100 million in total revenue by August 2022, before becoming ensnared in a legal battle. He also has a toy deal and is reportedly on the verge of signing a nine-figure deal with Amazon."
https://time.com/collection/time100-leadership-series/6693255/mrbeast-interview/
4. A good discussion on geopolitics. Net net: the West is lagging behind.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTsWGUDYkQM
5. "Casinos are unique in their aim. No other industry builds a world designed to maintain a customer’s fantasy so that they continue to partake in an activity that, in the long run, advantages the house. But retailers share at least one common goal with casinos: They want to keep people inside.
“The goal of the retailer is to make sure that they find ways to increase the time we spend in the store, the number of items we see at the store, and end up buying not just what we came in for but ideally a few additional things,”
https://thehustle.co/originals/why-you-almost-never-see-a-clock-at-the-mall
6. "As it turns out, it’s not social media that connects us in the 21st century. It’s ships. Shipping is a $14 trillion-plus industry, and the overwhelming majority of the world’s goods—a colossal 90 percent of them—spend time at sea. Marina believes that shipping is good for humans, as to trade with people around the world is to acquire empathy for them.
“To see them in their places, to see what they need, what they want. It’s globalization.” And with the ramp-up of TMV’s latest fund, it seems to me that Marina, in her steel-bougainvillea way, is currently orchestrating a one-woman overhaul of the entire shipping industry."
https://archive.ph/bN1hG#selection-777.0-789.0
7. This is really cool.
"Ridley, now 33, is a full-time “bikepacker” who has been traveling the world for eight years. He started using bikes to travel in 2015 and has since ridden the lengths of Africa, Asia, Europe, and nearly all of Oceania.
His solo travels started with nights in hostels and traveling by buses and trains. From there, he moved into hitchhiking and camping. Wanting even more flexibility, he began considering cycling. After a few painful trips, it became his vehicle of choice.
“There's times when I'm very grateful to be alone,” Ridley said. “For personal growth, I think traveling solo has enormous value.”
He said traveling alone taught him how to improvise, be comfortable under pressure, and how to deal with people. In terms of security, he finds that personal skills and forming accurate judgments are his “first line of defense” and more useful than knives or pepper spray."
8. "In all three of these instances—podcasting hosting, podcast consumption, and audiobooks consumption—my colleagues and I were told to tread carefully, to explore other avenues, to respect the No Trespassing sign. This advice came from people who had worked in these respective industries for a long time, and whose perspectives were often skewed by their familiarity with the status quo.
Their view: The incumbents have too broad an existing user base, too much brand recognition, and too strong an incentive to defend their strongholds for a challenger to disrupt them.
I can’t help but disagree. I’ve come to learn through first-hand experience that monopolies often serve as the ideal competitor to take on. There are four main reasons why:
-Monopolies have already proven the industry is viable and lucrative
-Monopolies refuse to cannibalize their own dominance
-Monopolies have institutionalized their inefficiencies
-Monopolies have the most to lose from making mistakes, whereas startups have the most to gain"
https://every.to/p/don-t-be-scared-to-take-on-a-monopoly
9. "This is, I think, one of the major reasons for the Diversity Paradox. Whilst in theory the pool of potential recruits has been much widened, in practice the messages sent out by “successful” people today amount to a subliminal incitement to a new generation of would-be sociopaths, focused on narcissistic ego-gratification and the satisfaction of a lust for power and money.
They also discourage many “excellent” people from joining organisation or going into politics, because they judge, quite understandably, that they would not like to work in such an environment, nor are they interested in fighting political battles for more status and even more money. And this applies across the board, irrespective of skin pigmentation, genital arrangements or anything else. Sociopaths are sociopaths, and in general sociopaths are bad managers and bad at their jobs. The only skills they have are those related to personal success. Thus, organisations and political systems fail.
This helps to explain, I think, the terrifying shambles of the western reaction to Ukraine. Western politicians have come to believe not only that narrative control is essential, but also that it is all that is necessary. This worked, more or less, in Afghanistan. But in Ukraine, with western-trained troops being slaughtered and western equipment blown to bits, elites have suddenly realised what Bagehot could have told them: that while narrative control can “impress the many,” you still need instruments of coercion to actually get things done, and the West, of course, now has none.
In effect, organisations of all kinds have essentially returned to the pre nineteenth-century model of predation and parasitism, where the state (and these days private corporations) are there just to be exploited and looted. You choose your career according to the benefits you can expect, and you arrange your professional life to maximise them.
You say and do the right things to secure advancement, and in due course, you cooperate with others in positions of power to loot the system, and pass on. The benefits may be financial, but they may also be those of status and perception, and indeed your first career—in the public sector for example—may be no more than a preparation for a much more lucrative one elsewhere."
https://aurelien2022.substack.com/p/the-diversity-paradox
10. "So nuclear proliferation is happening, and it’s mostly being done by China and its allies. Increasingly, this means that U.S. allies are facing nuclear-capable enemies without nukes of their own. India has nukes to balance Pakistan’s, and Israel has nukes to balance any future Iranian arsenal. But three key U.S. allies are in a very perilous situation right now: Japan, South Korea, and Poland.
So for Japan, South Korea, and possibly Poland, getting nukes is the obvious strategy for dealing with the expansionist empires next door. If these countries went nuclear, it would draw “hard boundaries” past which Xi and Putin could not pass, even if they succeeded in gobbling up Ukraine, Taiwan, and other small nations in the area. Japanese, South Korean, and Polish nukes would freeze the battle lines of Cold War 2, potentially stopping it from turning into World War 3."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/japan-and-south-korea-need-nuclear
11. Solid discussion with LP on evaluating emerging VC fund managers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9YQIaKupR8
12. This was such a good discussion. Not just for investing insights but for life. It came at the right time for me.
https://www.joincolossus.com/episodes/62018848/banister-investing-for-a-higher-purpose
13. "Social media may thus create instability in democracies while leaving autocracies untouched.
In other words, the rise of smartphones and social media means that the internet is now a powerful centralizer of both personal information and public discussion, rather than the decentralizing force that the creators of the Web intended it to be. And centralization plays into the hands of those who seek to control every aspect of other people’s lives — i.e., totalitarians.
Most of China’s “sharp power” methods are fundamentally enabled by the smartphone-and-social-media internet — and/or by globalization itself. Manipulation of TikTok, attempted control of Zoom, and social media misinformation campaigns give China a propaganda reach that the USSR could only dream of. The unprecedented surveillance state
China has built — superior to anything the Nazis or Soviets had — relies crucially on smartphones. Meanwhile, a globalized economy makes it much easier for China to order American companies around, to steal technologies, to install its surveillance technology around the globe, and so on.
Liberalism has not yet evolved an effective defense against these methods of control. Our companies, venal and fragmented, are prostrate before China’s economic coercion. Our social media chaos is self-sustaining — it drives political polarization that prevents us from taking steps to rein in the chaos. Our attempts at digital privacy laws so far have been cack-handed and largely ineffectual. Our cybersecurity has been thoroughly penetrated.
Totalitarians don’t just have an advantage in manufacturing capacity now. Their power has thoroughly penetrated democratic societies; in the language of the old internet, we have been p0wned. Figuring out effective defenses is a crucial task if liberalism wants to prevail in the 21st century the way it prevailed in the 20th."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/new-technologies-new-totalitarians
14. "I know a lot of really smart, interesting people. That’s why I find myself telling a lot of people that I’d love it if they shared their thoughts more often in public. I don’t much care whether they do it in writing, or a newsletter, a podcast or on LinkedIn—but I feel like I every time I interact with them, I learn something or I’m inspired to think about things in a different way.
Yet, the response I get most often is, “But there’s already so much content out there!”
I’ve never quite related to that way of thinking—mostly because I don’t actually find most online content to be that good. Remember, you don’t have to outrun the bear. You just have to outrun the slowest camper—and in the world of online thought leadership, there are a lot of slow campers."
https://www.thisisgoingtobebig.com/blog/2024/2/27/but-theres-so-much-content-out-there
15. A great view on geopolitics by one of the best in the business.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLjY502lPtU
16. An excellent discussion on what’s happening in business on the internet and popular culture.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVGuGnIyY90
17. Disturbing discussion on growing Chinese military (and unserious Taiwanese defense initiatives)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hK_eH5UnlTo
18. "Undergirding the globalist enterprise was China’s accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001. For decades, American policymakers and the corporate class said they saw China as a rival, but the elite that Friedman described saw enlightened Chinese autocracy as a friend and even as a model—which was not surprising, given that the Chinese Communist Party became their source of power, wealth, and prestige.
Why did they trade with an authoritarian regime and send millions of American manufacturing jobs off to China thereby impoverish working Americans? Because it made them rich. They salved their consciences by telling themselves they had no choice but to deal with China: It was big, productive, and efficient and its rise was inevitable. And besides, the American workers hurt by the deal deserved to be punished—who could defend a class of reactionary and racist ideological naysayers standing in the way of what was best for progress?
What seems clear is that Biden’s inauguration marks the hegemony of an American oligarchy that sees its relationship with China as a shield and sword against their own countrymen. Like Athens’ Thirty Tyrants, they are not simply contemptuous of a political system that recognizes the natural rights of all its citizens that are endowed by our creator; they despise in particular the notion that those they rule have the same rights they do.
Witness their newfound respect for the idea that speech should only be free for the enlightened few who know how to use it properly. Like Critias and the pro-Sparta faction, the new American oligarchy believes that democracy’s failures are proof of their own exclusive right to power—and they are happy to rule in partnership with a foreign power that will help them destroy their own countrymen."
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/the-thirty-tyrants
19. "The collapse of the US-led, rules-based international order means everything the US will do internationally in the future will be more challenging and filled with danger."
https://johnrobb.substack.com/p/the-american-way
20. "What I do think has become clear, though, is that the nation is slowly calming down. The Wikipedia page for “domestic terrorism in the United States” lists 9 “notable” domestic terrorist attacks from 2015 to 2019, and zero since. In my opinion, they’re omitting a few from the list, but the basic pattern is clear — the mid and late 2010s were the peak. Murder rates — which took decades to start falling after the unrest of the 60s and 70s — are now dropping.
Part of this might be due to simple exhaustion, after years of continuous unrest. Part of it might also be due to improvement in Americans’ economic circumstances. Employment rates are very high. Real wages are rising strongly for regular workers."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/getting-past-the-2010s
21. Lots of disturbing things on the geopolitical side. Erik Prince does know what he is talking about. USA is stretched and ground down by incompetent bureaucrats.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBfyyLLM3pc&t=966s
22. "At a high level, the bearish sentiment makes sense. Inconsistent consumer sentiment and dwindling savings accounts prompt fears that spending will slow, customer acquisition costs have been rising, inventory and supply chain challenges are material and the shift toward generative artificial intelligence has emphasized infrastructure to date.
But public market data reveal a different story: Compared with enterprise software companies, consumer companies are more likely to go public after raising a Series B, more likely to drive efficient growth at the time of an initial public offering and just as likely to trade at 10 times revenue at the time of IPO.
Some of the world’s largest companies started by serving consumers. Just as enterprise software companies aim to expand revenue with clients by adding new products or increasing usage, consumer companies have parallel ambitions and success. Think about Amazon (books), Google (search), and Meta Platforms (Facebook)—three of the most influential companies, all of which began with a consumer-first value proposition and then expanded into adjacent businesses and multidimensional business models."
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/dont-give-up-on-consumer-startups
23. Latest on what’s up in Silicon Valley.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WwgUMt24qbE
24. I'm pro Taiwan and American so I am fan of this move.
https://www.defensehere.com/en/us-permanently-deploys-training-mission-in-taiwan
25. "This has a significant impact on the competitive advantages of a firm in the market as it scales. When party rounds were the standard course for smaller seed firms, connections were the scarce skill set, enabling access to deals led by other reputable firms. As these funds have become larger and rounds have become increasingly tighter, conviction becomes the scarcer skill set (i.e. can you lead and win the deal).
As someone who began my investing career outside of the valley, leading early rounds independently feels very natural to me. I knew full well that if a generic enterprise SaaS deal made its way to my desk from the Bay Area that it was likely adverse selection (sure enough, I lost nearly every $ I invested in the Bay Area). This forced independent conviction.
Not by choice, but by circumstance — fewer investors were looking at those deals and categories. Our team has developed capabilities to source independently, develop conviction independently, and partner with those that can appropriately complement us as co-investors and downstream investors. We also capped our fund size to enable the opportunity for us to continue to collaborate with our partner firms, whereas had we raised a larger amount we’d have to be even more restrictive.
Much like with startups, growth at all cost is a fool’s errand. In some select cases, scale can have advantages, but to pursue scale without recognizing its ramifications is a dangerous course of action. As firms grow, the fund size dictates the strategy and capabilities necessary to execute it."
https://medium.com/@EqualVentures/fund-size-is-your-strategy-d30f284c176a
26. A great discussion and historical review of the evolution of media businesses in the USA. Really interesting stuff if you want to build a media empire.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FrsZl1NHmCE&t=82s
27. "Trae Stephens, a former government intelligence analyst turned early Palantir employee turned investor at Founders Fund, where Stephens has cofounded two companies of his own. One of these is Anduril, the buzzy defense tech company that is now valued at $8.4 billion by its investors. The other is Sol, which makes a single-purpose, $350 headset that weighs about the same as a pair of sunglasses and that is focused squarely on reading, a bit like a wearable Kindle. (Having put on the pair that Stephens brought to the event, I immediately wanted one of my own, though there’s a 15,000-person waitlist right now, says Stephens.)
We spent the first half of our chat talking primarily about Founders Fund, kicking off the conversation by talking about how Founders Fund differentiates itself from other firms (board seats are rare, it doesn’t reserve money for follow-on investments, consensus is largely a no-no)."
28. "The moon is just a weigh station for this grand plan. But think of space and the lunar surface as the most important physics lab humankind has ever been able to access. Much of the testing there will define what is possible on Earth. This is especially true of autonomous robotics. Mining on the moon or on asteroids is also about new methods for radically transforming mining on Earth.
The low gravity on the moon makes it a very cheap and easy place to launch from. The buildout on the lunar surface and beyond will mainly be done by 3-D printers and autonomous AI-led robotics."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/cows-jump-over-the-moon
29. "The multitrillion-dollar question is who gets to the steep part of the S-curve first — or whether OpenAI and its peers have already reached it. Because once ChatGPT (or Perplexity or Claude or a model we haven’t seen yet) hits escape velocity, the history of innovation tells us the race is over. A bad sign for Alphabet: Of the original eight researchers who wrote that AI “Attention” paper, only one still works at Google. Six others founded their own companies, and one joined OpenAI.
Something that’s speed-balled Christensen’s theory in this era is the amount of capital available to the defectors. Generative AI and AI-related startups raised more than $50 billion in 2023, led by Open AI. Over 70 rounds of $100+ million raises occurred last year. These companies aren’t immediately direct competitors of Google; they’re coming at the search game obliquely.
ChatGPT doesn’t fill every role that Google’s product offers, but it begins to nibble at the periphery, just as Google has been gnawing at all media for two decades. A former Google employee who founded their own AI startup recently said, “The pirates have their boats in the ocean, and we are coming.”
https://www.profgalloway.com/searching
30. "I asked how they approach things from a team and work perspective, and he shared something I’ll never forget. Their goal is to never have more than 10 employees and instead, they lean heavily on ChatGPT and other AI tools to augment their onshore, in-person team. Then, they have a growing presence in Eastern Europe for all of their development efforts and a customer service presence in the Philippines.
So, the business is based in Atlanta. The founders are in Atlanta, and their goal is to never have double-digit official employees. Instead, the main work is done by experts in one country, and the main support is done by experts in a different country. Everything that can be automated internally is automated; everything that can be outsourced is outsourced.
The ultimate result is a new category of startup: the forever lean startup.
Thinking more about this model, I think this is going to be a serious trend in startupland."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/03/02/rise-of-the-forever-lean-startup/
31. I love Buenos Aires and long overdue to return.
"The point of mentioning this is Buenos Aires is epic, from the georbitrage, nightlife, extremely attractive women, barrios (neighborhoods), and restaurants, I can’t find a better place to live and I consider myself very picky for where I base myself.
Geoarbitrage is the single most important reason I live here. The cost of living is incredibly cheap, even by Latin American standards, from rent to eating at classy restaurants, buying drinks/fun stuff, gyms, etc. I can live off $1200 USD per month and still enjoy the quality of life described below.
I’m going to say that I think I’m sitting on a good hand in the market (probably deserve to get a smack for this), I’ve already made some money thanks to investing in March 2020 market lows & being very early to uranium stocks, but I’m not willing to sell anything until I think the investment thesis has played out. So for now, I’m quite happy to base myself here, in a safe city with a low cost of living, trading options for income enjoying a bloody high quality of life."
https://geologotrader.substack.com/p/i-have-the-best-quality-of-life-here
32. "The other reason people never become financially independent is pure laziness.
Many smart people have already figured out that they will never become financially independent working a job (at least not before old age) and that they need to start some kind of business if they ever hope to get there.
The problem is “someday”. These guys are always stuck in “someday” and never take any action TODAY.
Someday and tomorrow are just words people use to express their laziness. Weeks, months, and years go by and these types never take any action.
Starting an online business is NOT hard but it does take some effort.
You have to learn a high paying skill (I recommend audience building, web design, copywriting, or programming). You have to send cold emails and DMs. You have to do the work.
It’s easy – all you have to do is click mouse buttons and hit keys on the keyboard.
But most people are lazy. They just don’t have the initiative to do it. They’d rather just beg their boss for leaves instead of trying to become their own boss.
There’s no excuse. The internet gives equal opportunity to everyone, but not equal results. Meritocracy.
If you don’t do the work, you don’t get results. And I have zero sympathy for the lazy."
https://lifemathmoney.com/how-to-become-financially-independent
33. "In summary, I’ll lay it out like this. If you’re a young professional, look at your peers higher up in the hierarchy, do you like what you see? Ask yourself is this what you aspire to? 99% of people do.
If you’re in the 1%, like me, set some goals, live cheaply, take calculated risks in the market than you may otherwise might later in life, and remember there are “options” out there to help you escape it all and live a life completely on your own terms. The further you move away from the thought and expectations of the 99%, in my experience, the less you actually give a fuck what people think.
Aspire to live a life true to yourself, and don’t take it all too seriously, remember at the end of the day, we’re just an evolved monkey species spinning around on a rock."
https://geologotrader.substack.com/p/create-opportunities-for-luck-my
34. "People consider what I’m doing as “risky”. 18 months without an employer or investment property, still with a regular income while I geoarbitrage my life in low-cost Argentina, trade options for income and let my longer-term investment thesis’ play out.
Having the character and strength to be the black sheep is when your eyes really open up to how the rest of the world works.
I like to think my one year in Argentina has almost left me with a Bachelor of how not to do Economics and a minor in anti-socialism."
Living an International Life: Geo-arbitrage at its Finest
I’m a firm believer in living a rich life. I believe for some the best opportunities sit outside of the USA. So living globally is a good way to live. Culturally you get to experience a different point of view and can make friends with people all over the world. It’s a great way to get appreciation for the human race and realize that we are more alike than different. Yet the small differences are helpful to learn new things and provide a small piece of the puzzle in understanding your life better.
For those business minded, going global is a must. I’ve been fortunate to have done well investing in startups and public stocks of companies from outside of the USA. It’s the ultimate alpha. Hungry international founders and businesses who are able to crack the US Market.
But at a larger global level, much of the future economic growth will also happen outside of the USA. So things like commodity & energy stocks or real estate are big opportunities as population & middle class growth happens there. I’ve said it before and will say it again: very bullish on markets like Japan, Mexico, Vietnam, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan, Colombia, Argentina and most of Central Eastern Europe particularly Poland, Czech Republic, Romania and Ukraine.
It’s also great to be able to vacation or even base yourself for a few months of the year where you can arbitrage the strength of the US Dollar or Euro which goes further to enable you to live a far better lifestyle than back in the USA.
Following the Sun: Weather is a big determinant of happiness. I hate extreme cold and heat. I noticed that I thrive in mild Mediterranean temperatures. Spending the summer in Taiwan this last year showed me how unenjoyable the experience was. I equally dislike staying in Canada during the winter.
Yes, I recognize that this makes me sound like a spoiled first-worlder. But in my older age, I find myself very negatively affected by extreme temperatures.
Going forward I will try to do a better job of optimizing the timing of where I go and when I go. It will be mainly Canada and Northern Europe during the summer. And the Middle East/ Latam during the winter. Asia is best for me during spring and Fall.
Healthcare is an important aspect of life. Unfortunately, US healthcare is a disaster zone. An absolute travesty. But going global is the way around this. Going elsewhere for treatments is common and medical tourism is becoming even more popular. I got a full body health check in Taiwan at the full price of $600 usd. This would be multiple times more expensive in America. Mexico and Thailand are also places that have a great reputation for excellent but relatively inexpensive health and dental care.
Eating is better outside of the USA too. I might add, the quality of meats, fruits and vegetables is so much better. As a self proclaimed foodie, there are so many good food places in the world. I love the cuisine in Taiwan, Japan, Mexico, and Thailand. It’s also very good in most parts of Europe and the Middle East. Canada and Australia have pretty damn good restaurants too. And goes without saying, it’s almost always, great value compared to life in so-called Tier 1 cities in the USA.
Despite all this, I’m unabashedly pro America. It’s an amazing place that has given me a lot and I think the world is a better place with a USA led world order. But I recognize its shortcomings as well.
At the same time, it’s the best place for business and where one can keep their edge of competitiveness. I have the best conversations and meet the most impressive people anywhere in the world. (I should note it’s also where I’ve met some of the most awful human beings in the world too).
It’s why America will continue to be my home. Tax wise it would be better living elsewhere but living a rich life is living where you want to that’s not just driven by money. America will be my hub as I explore the world looking for business opportunities and living well like the wandering investor. All the opportunities you want are out there, you just have to get off your butt and leave your comfort zone to get them.
The Unspoken Factor in Startups & Entrepreneurship: Faith & Self Belief
What causes a person to do a startup? To take the risk when there are so many other certain and probably more profitable paths out there for someone bright, smart and ambitious.
Money. Sure, but investment banking and hedge funds are a more certain thing. Status? Maybe in Silicon Valley but not sure in most circles or parts of the world. Freedom and control? Definitely.
But ultimately it comes down to taking a bet on yourself and self belief. Faith. Faith that there is a there there. Faith that you will figure things out.
It’s neat how random readings spark these ideas: many of these come from the sci-fi series of Warhammer 40k: Dan Abnett’s: The End and the Death.”
“That’s what faith does. It takes away fear. When he found it, it took away fear, and self conscious vanity, and all mortal concerns.”
Startups are a religious movement, some would even say a cult. You have to be the cult leader. to lead you have to believe. How can you convince others if you don’t believe it yourself? You will always have doubts. That’s normal. And you will have tough days, that’s inevitable. It will be hard work and long hours. Everything and anything worthwhile requires that.
Doing a startup requires courage. “What is courage, except an act? Courage isn’t a passive quality. Whether instinctive or forced, it’s the condition of acting in the face of danger.”
But this is how you build a legendary company like Google, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft, Netflix, Salesforce or Oracle. Mythical companies.
“This venture would be a myth, for in myths, the weak, the outnumbered, the mere mortals, they always prevailed.
He should have remembered that myths never feel like myths at the time. You only realize you’ve been part of one long after it’s over. At the time, nothing is certain, and the chances of triumph are slim.”
This is why so many successful founders and builders go back to doing startups again. Even if they don’t need the money or accolades.
It’s to experience this feeling again. Defying the odds. The dopamine of discovery, building and being part of something bigger than yourself. To be the ultimate alchemist, creating something from nothing. Gold from air. It’s an addictive thing. To show you that faith can lead you to do impossible things like startups.
The Dark Moments of Doubt: Learning Not to Quit
This is a moment every founder and business person faces. When nothing seems to be working in your business despite all of your team and your own superhuman efforts. When the investors aren’t returning your calls, customers are dropping out, that is if you even have any to begin with. Your family and friends are openly questioning you about this life path.
Doubt starts to fill your mind and it’s so easy to quit. Especially in the late and darkest part of night. You are wracked with anxiety and wonder what to do. You are in this weird fugue state of panic and helplessness. It’s way more common than people think but few successful people talk about this. They actively try to forget or they want to protect their egos.
I face this myself as an investor. Getting a bunch of NOs from potential LPs in your fund or when a bunch of your startups die. In one case, it was 4 in one week back in early 2022. You wonder what’s wrong with you. What you are missing. You really question yourself.
And of course, as per the rule of 3, there usually are other small and big things that go wrong in your life. Your phone breaks, you have family issues or something else crappy in your personal life. It’s so easy to feel like every aspect of your life is going wrong.
So what do I do to get past this?
At that moment, you have to decide not to decide on anything. Important decisions should not be made when you are feeling down and especially when it’s late at night. I then meditate to calm my monkey brain. I also take some melatonin and try to get a good night's rest. I tell myself that tomorrow is a brand new day.
And surprisingly, it works most of the time. My subconscious brain works at what was a previous intractable issue or problem.
I do my morning exercise routine which gives me new energy to go forward.
I review my vision board and mission which is a reminder of my why: why I do what I do. I then focus on the small specific tactics to regain momentum in my life and business. Even if it’s a tiny movement back in the right direction.
It could be a call to your team or biz partner. Or you reach out to an old or new client. Maybe you post new useful content on your social media. Or you publish a new post on your blog or newsletter. Every little bit helps. As Ben Affleck in the excellent sales movie “Boiler Room”: “Move around. Motion creates emotion.”
Taking smart action the next day is usually the cure that stops me from even thinking of quitting. This way I can treat my previous doubts like a bad dream that I can move on from.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads March 24th, 2024
"This is no time for ease and comfort. It is time to dare and endure." – Winston Churchill
"The future looks grim for the overworked fleet. Like the rest of the U.S. military, the Navy is facing an unprecedented recruiting crisis, fueled in part by fatigue from time away from home during extended deployments. In an all-volunteer force, sailors will vote with their feet. A shrinking fleet is the likely outcome, regardless of how many warships America has.
The most immediate danger of overstretch, though, is munitions not manpower. The opening Jan. 12 strike on the Houthis expended 80 Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles, more than half the missile’s annual production. In the near term, expending hundreds of these missiles in a tertiary operation like Prosperity Guardian could have major impacts in a far more important theater in the Pacific.
Precision strike missiles like the Tomahawk are vital to the U.S. military’s ability to deter, and if necessary, defeat a Chinese attack in the Pacific—a contingency where the Navy will be carrying most of the fight, unlike in America’s Middle East wars. The U.S. may already lack sufficient precision munitions for a shooting war with China. The Navy’s newest Middle East operation adds further risk to the service’s most essential mission."
https://time.com/6693320/us-navy-yemen-middle-east/
2. "Hawks have been saying for decades that we are living in an incredibly dangerous world. That was an exaggeration twenty years ago but now is actually true. In such a context, our nation needs hawks to follow their convictions where they lead: That hard power is central, that we face scarcity, that it will take years at best to redress, that we can’t “walk and chew gum,” and that the most dangerous threat we face is the one with the most hard power—China.
In such a context, it is wildly imprudent to cut it close against our most important threat, banking on a single theory of victory. Hawks must now match their commendable rhetoric on China with real action—and above all, a willingness to prioritize confronting this, our greatest threat."
https://time.com/6696552/u-s-hawks-china-threat-essay/
3. Luke Belmar is the man.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-ZTbDExs4I
4. "All I’m saying is that as an asset class, venture capital is way better than it gets credit for. There’s no other asset class that’s been as positive-sum or cooked more free lunches over the past half century.
I’d argue that even if venture capital underperformed other asset classes, generated 0% returns or something, it would be a net benefit to society to have a pool of capital that funds crazy experimentation. But this is capitalism, and returns are what keeps the machine humming. So the fact that VC has generated such strong returns over a long time horizon is key.
The question is: will venture continue to deliver returns?
I think the answer is undoubtedly, unquestionably yes.
Tech is Going to Get Much Bigger as tech’s total addressable market expands to include large existing industries that have been relatively untouched by technology, including industrials and agriculture. Cheaper energy, intelligence, and dexterity, in the words of Valar Atomics’ Isaiah Taylor, will mean new opportunities to attack old industries with cheaper, better products. Higher margins in large industries will make for very valuable companies. And things that were previously impossible are becoming possible at an accelerated rate.
Venture was created for times like this, when big shifts in underlying technologies create opportunities for crazy geniuses to build products that might change the world."
https://www.notboring.co/p/venture-capital-and-free-lunch
5. This is a fun discussion on business ideas. Good and intriguing ideas. Learned a bunch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6yt891IBhI
6. Lots of interesting insights from one of the top Growth stage VCs in the world. IVP.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hr6A1qYzlds
7. "The problem now is that the losses in the property sector are so severe that there is no money for people to buy anything except whatever is essential. The property losses are killing all other consumer-led sectors in the economy.
The Belt and Road Initiative should have brought in debt repayments and commercial revenues, but it isn’t. More and more nations can’t and won’t pay China back fast enough, thanks to devaluation, inflation, and their over-indebtedness. Few are enchanted with whatever infrastructure China has already provided, thanks to shoddy construction and cut corners, and are unlikely to buy more. Chinese nationals are now fleeing the country. Money is running away, too. Against that backdrop, the US is about to begin hitting China with sanctions for supporting Russia. But what if China breaks? Really breaks?
When the Soviet Union ceased to exist, it was every man for himself. China is bigger. It has more people. Despite best efforts to shut it out, it is more deeply integrated into the world economy. It’s not that China doesn’t deserve to be sanctioned for helping Russia disrupt the world. It’s that hitting China with sanctions now might work all too well and smash an already fragile situation.
The whole world may have to pick up the pieces. Luckily, Global grain production just surpassed the global record. There is enough to go around, but policymakers will have to completely change how they think about China. Sometimes, superpowers need help. The US bailed the Soviet Union out of a famine in 1973. They might have to lead a humanitarian food bailout of China in 2025. It’s unimaginable now. But, it is possible if the unimaginable happens in China."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/broken-chinapaper-tiger-capital-flight
8. Timely conversation on Russia, Ukraine and Poland.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_KfVGiav8U
9. "All in all, the pace of regulation in the last 50 years is unprecedented in history. Regulators are motivated to write new regulations, and unmotivated to eliminate old ones; lawmakers and courts are too deferential to bureaucrats; the largest industrial giants (not to mention hospitals and universities) tacitly support costly regulations because they are even more costly to startup competitors. And those same companies can pass the regulatory burden onto consumers — shown in the famous AEI “Chart of the Century” of sector-based inflation. The more regulation, the more inflation."
https://blog.joelonsdale.com/p/time-to-take-out-the-regulatory-trash
10. "Dubai reopened aggressively during the pandemic with extensive testing and vaccination programs. It has since outpaced its primary competitor, Singapore, as the key destination for the wealthy seeking sunshine, lifestyle, and lower taxes. Dubai now stands alone in the Eastern hemisphere as the nexus point for the wealthy of the Middle East, Asia, Russia, and many Europeans.
Similarly, Miami became a top destination for the wealthy through the pandemic and has now emerged as the Dubai of the Western hemisphere. Already considered the “capital of Latin America,” Miami has become the nexus point for the wealthy of the U.S., Canada, and Europe for the same reasons as Dubai: sunshine, lifestyle, and lower taxes.
Very much like Dubai, the culture of Miami encourages emigration, success, capitalism, and wealth. The city government, led by Mayor Francis Suarez, actively seeks to expand the city and attract new business."
https://refreshmiami.com/miami-the-dubai-of-the-western-hemisphere/
11. IMHO Hadrian is one of the most important startups in America right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-hElCTgO9e0
12. Awesome discussion on how creator brands will be built in the future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tl5UsFTO9iY
13. It’s not over yet but this is why I don't trust any politicians. The West sold out Ukraine & I am disgusted as all of us should be.
"It has always been clear that in a one-on-one fight Russia would eventually win this, and only strong and ongoing support from the West could sustain Ukraine holding the lines. It never has been made clear exactly what sort of support was required to roll-back Russia back to internationally recognized borders.
And that is the theory that has been gaining currency over the past few weeks: the West never was interested in a decisive Ukrainian win and ensured that weapon deliveries matched that goal. A stalemate would be the best possible outcome as it would keep Putin in his seat and avoid a nuclear escalation. No, that does not mean Putin is a good old pal, but a humiliating Russian defeat could potentially spur the emergence of elements far more radical than the current leader.
So we have an outsourced war where the dial is not moved one way or the other, at least for now. That also serves the political goal of keeping the conflict out of the headlines: this is a war in which most Americans, Canadians and Europeans aren’t terribly interested in in the first place. It is state of the art ‘realpolitik’ the price of which is paid for in rivers of blood by both Ukrainians and Russians.
It is a cynical view for sure, but if you consider all the facts two years into this adventure, then it is hard to see it in a fundamentally different way."
https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/ukraines-struggle
14. "When investing in a story/trend you believe will go from “never” to “maybe” happening, the importance of a project’s traction is low. The market doesn’t expect much because the market believes this token is attached to a trend that is unlikely to grow in the future. Therefore, even mediocre results are trumped as groundbreaking because the expectations are so low.
When investing in a story/trend you believe will go from “maybe” to “definitely” happening, the importance of a project’s traction is high. The market’s expectations are high because they believe in a bright future. What would be considered mind-blowing results in the previous phase are considered mediocre in this phase. Amazing results are not enough; in this phase, a project must be genuinely revolutionary in order to meet expectations."
https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/chief-story-officer
15. "Brands and organizations decay slowly; it can be hard for outsiders to see the weakness until it’s readily apparent to all. But customers are smart, and all of Techstars’ customers eventually saw what was happening, and acted accordingly.
The first to spot the weakness were startup founders. Their ambition and acute realism made them sensitive to the clear shift in Techstars’ priorities, away from serving founders and toward the “corporate innovation” business.
With dozens of programs scattered around the globe, often in partnership with second-tier brands, and in locations with little to no native startup ecosystem, it was hard to say exactly what the Techstars brand stood for anymore, but it clearly wasn’t “helping entrepreneurs succeed”. While Techstars wanted founders to see Techstars as a single thing, smart founders realized that their outcome and ROI depended entirely on the MD and specific program they participated in."
https://www.founderscoop.com/2024/what-went-wrong-at-techstars/
16. Always enlightening stuff on geopolitics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJaLKS3JHcc
17. More geopolitics with Zeihan. America needs to make some hard decisions soon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQksC-8fqpM
18. Latest NIA episode which is always an insightful convo on creative businesses.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeSzaB8v1M0
19. "But it’s his growing power off the pitch that is increasingly interesting. Perhaps more than any other athlete, Messi’s unique abilities and recent moves position him to build a level of wealth that far outstrips even other legends. In particular, his move to America in 2022 and the launch of the holding company Play Time have opened up new monetization opportunities that reveal much about contemporary stardom, technological shifts, and the incredible leverage of tech startups.
In a decade or two, we may look back on Jordan’s current wealth as a rounding error compared to modern athletes’ affluence. The rise of social media and software allows players to monetize directly, cut out intermediaries, and build extraordinary wealth. Rather than relying on executives like Sonny Vaccaro and Nike founder Phil Knight, today’s Air Jordan would run on Shopify, collect payments through Stripe, and advertise over Instagram and TikTok. Its titular star wouldn’t have just 5% royalties but 100% ownership.
More than any other athlete, Lionel Messi is best placed to capitalize on these changing dynamics. The greatest footballer of all time is a singular talent entering his second act in the richest country in the world. While Messi’s move to America’s Major League Soccer has attracted more attention, his holding company “Play Time” – which SEC filings suggest is raising $200 million in capital – may illustrate the true scale of his commercial aspirations. Through public statements and conversations between The Generalist and Play Time’s co-founder Razmig Hovaghimian, a clearer image emerges: Messi doesn’t want to simply sell sneakers – he wants to build and invest in the great software and media companies of the next generation. It’s an ambitious plan that, if successful, offers much higher upside. The business of being the GOAT looks more lucrative than ever before."
https://thegeneralist.substack.com/p/messi-inc
20. This is a must watch to learn about what’s happening in tech. It's arguably the best podcast tech show around now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-i9AGk3DJ90&t=3091s
21. "As promising as those developments may be, this is ultimately a war over territory that comes down to Ukraine’s ability to defend it.
Russia has its own supply issues, which forced it to recently begin purchasing mass quantities of ammunition from North Korea, and has also been reluctant to call a second mass mobilization to bring more troops to the front. But Russia’s ability to sustain heavy losses also shouldn’t be underestimated. A recent analysis from the International Institute for Strategic Studies estimated that even after losing around 8,800 fighting vehicles in the war so far, Russia will probably still be able to sustain its assault on Ukraine at current attrition rates for another two to three years.
It’s clear that this will be a much longer war and a contest of industrial capacity and political will as much as military maneuvers. But even getting to that marathon will require Ukraine getting past a very difficult period in the coming months.
Gady said a complete collapse of Ukraine’s defenses was not entirely out of the question, but still unlikely: “There are going to be a couple months where the situation is really dire for Ukraine, but I think they can hold.”
https://www.vox.com/2024/2/22/24079595/avdiivka-ukraine-russia-war-artillery
22. Clockspeed. Great concept.
https://sriramk.com/clock-speed/
23. "Still, there are some reasons to be optimistic about Japan’s economy in general. First, the country is finally taking its own defense seriously — defense spending surged from 5.4 trillion yen in 2022 to 7.95 trillion yen in 2024. That’s still only about 1.5% of GDP, but the rapid increase is pretty stunning. Defense spending will stimulate manufacturing, but will also give Japan the chance to build its own military-related tech industries. More fundamentally, it demonstrates that Japan’s leaders realize the magnitude of the threat China poses, and realize that they need economic growth in order to fund a more robust defense.
Second, Japan is bringing in large numbers of foreign workers to ease its labor shortage.
To sum up, I think that what Japan really needs in order for its economy to be fully “back” is to rediscover the zeal for industrial policy and cultural transformation that it had during its catch-up years in the 1960s and 1970s. The specific policies just need updates for the modern age. Instead of shutting out FDI, Japan now needs to draw it in.
Instead of building a corporate culture based on lifetime employment and seniority promotion, it needs to build one based on flexibility in hiring and in work hours. And instead of clinging to fading dominance in the industries of the 1970s, it needs to muscle in on the industries of the 2020s.
I believe Japan can do it. But it’s not going to be easy or quick."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/japan-isnt-quite-back-but-it-has
24. "The biggest concern at this point lies not so much with the political caste, but whether the social context, with very high inflation and rock-bottom salaries, will allow Milei to continue down this path.
If salary purchasing power is not restored in the coming weeks, the government could have serious social problems (read: more serious riots and revolts)."
https://www.bowtiedmara.io/p/feudal-fiat-warfare-and-power-struggles
25. "How does one compare the wars in Gaza and Ukraine with those in Ethiopia and Sudan, or for that matter the civil war in Myanmar or the regular fighting in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (which may be close to taking off again) and the multi-faceted violence in West Africa, with its Islamist insurgencies and recent series of coups?
It is no comfort to individuals caught up in any of these wars to know that somebody else’s war, measured by cumulative casualties, is even more vicious than your own. As we have seen with all these wars it is not good enough to deplore violence and wish for it to stop without some understanding of the political, social, and economic conditions that have caused and sustained these conflicts."
https://samf.substack.com/p/the-forgotten-wars
26. "Jobs are being lost, but augmentation will be the broader story. Rather than copywriter Mary losing her job, Mary’s firm will train her on an AI tool that generates first drafts, takes approved product copy and converts it for catalog, web, and social use, and streamlines other tasks. Accordingly, Mary’s manager will expect her to generate three times the copy in the same time.
Managers can take on new initiatives and domains without the headache of hiring more humans. It’s growth without calories. I’ve founded two strategy firms (Prophet and L2) and loved everything about them, except for the clients and the employees — every additional hire creates complexity and thus increases risk. The AI revolution will inspire a golden age of startups with lower infant mortality, as there will be fewer people (i.e., less risk) required to get to sustainability.
CEOs are being coy about this, at least in public, because there’s a sense of fear surrounding the brave new world of AI. The illusionist’s trick in the Valley right now is getting the media to look over there (trimming fat) while they’re stuffing the rabbit into the hat here (replacing it with AI). In the next several quarters, however, I believe CEOs will come out in earnings calls and put it bluntly: “We’re going to be a smaller company that does more business thanks to AI.”
Pundits will clutch their pearls for a hot minute until the stock explodes, and the secret hiding in plain sight will be visible to everyone. It’s corporate Ozempic. It’s not about less bread, but less craving for bread. Read: hiring people.
This will, correctly, raise concerns about a dystopia where nobody can find work. But AI will ultimately create jobs, as there will be new windows of attack against corporate titans. AI is currently a hormone therapy for mature companies looking to feel young again. Soon enough, though, a new generation of firms raised on the mother’s milk of AI will create an army of supersoldiers ready to attack bigger armies who are still fighting on horseback. I’m here for it."
https://www.profgalloway.com/corporate-ozempic/
27. Great episode this week. Good discussion on AI.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6vrKA_L5pk
28. The latest thoughts from Zeihan. Enlightening and frightening.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSC6sUAyf8U
29. "As an entrepreneur with limited resources and incredible challenges, finding great people, even if they have an existing job and keep that job, is one of the most important responsibilities. This is but one of many alternative ideas to recruiting talent and building a business."
30. "If you’re starting a new company, start selling immediately. If you can’t create a pithy message which gets them interested, work through the sales process to prove value, and complete transactions reliably for actual dollars, it does not matter what you have built. Working on your go-to-market motion early will impact in inextricable ways the product you are building. As a co-founder and CEO, your first priority is to ensure the company doesn’t run out of money, and priority number two is to be the head of go-to-market. Start now."
https://clintsharp.com/post/sell-the-product-before-it-exists/
31. More or Less this week. So many juicy nuggets in Silicon Valley.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_9u5IktrV8
32. Great thoughts around how to build a Personal Holding Co. I really believe this is the future of entrepreneurship.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_x5pN33Wzo
33. What a fascinating conversation on what's up in the venture market. So helpful.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8OVTwA0vl2c&t=2372s
34. "The past eighteen months or so have been more than a little surreal for Butler. He began 2023 in a position that all actors dream of but few know firsthand, nominated for Best Actor by every awards body that matters. It was his portrayal of Elvis Presley in director Baz Luhrmann’s Elvis that landed him there, and the experience—junket into roundtable into podcast, photo shoot into red carpet into reception—was both euphoric and exhausting.
When the film, a fever-dream retelling of Presley’s life, debuted to rave reviews and a strong box office in 2022, Butler became an overnight sensation. He was on the cover of national magazines and a fixture on the late-night TV circuit. Tabloids and online forums feverishly blogged about his dating life. Social media exploded with fans frothing at the mouth for the heartthrob.
But like most overnight sensations, Butler had been working for much of his life for a role like Elvis. A role that he could give himself over to completely. A role that would catapult him to the top of every casting director’s list.
Elvis would deliver all those things, plus earn him Golden Globe and BAFTA statuettes as well as an Oscar nomination, but Butler is not one to be idle. While Luhrmann’s film was in postproduction, the actor dove right into shooting a few major projects that are now finally getting released.
First up: Masters of the Air, a World War II miniseries from Tom Hanks and Steven Spielberg that debuted on Apple TV+ at the end of January. (Hanks costarred with Butler in Elvis as the singer’s infamous manager, Colonel Tom Parker, and recruited him during filming.) And in the biggest theatrical event of the spring—quite possibly the year—he’ll star opposite Timothée Chalamet in the second entry of director Denis Villeneuve’s cyberpunk Dune franchise."
35. I'm a big fan of Justin Waller. This is a great convo on getting strong and having grit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mf8Cs-QMKhg
36. "If the U.S. approves funding for Ukraine—the Senate passed $60 billion in aid last week but it faces steep hurdles in the House—it should be possible to get around 1.3 million rounds of ammunition to the country in 2024, which would allow Ukraine to hold the line. With European investment to expand production, significantly more can be provided in 2025, meeting a level that would enable Ukrainian offensive operations. But with Europe still expanding production capacity, Ukraine will face critical shortages in the next few months unless the U.S. steps in.
In spite of these advantages, Russia’s firepower dominance will potentially diminish over time. Although its shell production can increase, Russia has so far relied heavily on taking barrels from old Soviet systems it held in storage. By 2025, these stocks will be running low and Russia’s capacity to forge barrels is insufficient to meet its future needs.
The result is that through 2025 the accuracy of Russian guns, and the number that are available at any given time, may diminish. That may give Ukraine and its backers some hope in the longer run. But the critical question is whether the U.S. is willing to sustain the fight for the next year, before the tide begins to turn once again in Ukraine’s favor."
https://www.time.com/6694885/ukraine-russia-ammunition/
37. Fascinating & wide ranging conversation with a top hedge fund investor.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgGKhsWhUu8
38. "Despite the challenges, Ukraine has not succumbed to despair. Instead, it has embarked on a path of self-reliance, a journey marked by resilience and strategic innovation in the face of adversity. Ukrainian defence is transitioning from urgent procurement to boosting its own weapons production and forming strategic partnerships with foreign defence companies. This shift is meant to enhance Ukraine’s native defence capabilities in the long term.
The shift towards self-reliance and innovative strategies stands as a testament to Ukraine’s resilience. Support from its allies may be diminishing, but Ukraine’s determination to win this war and ensure a bright future for its citizens is not."
https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/opinions/2024/2/21/ukraine-is-switching-to-self-reliance-mode
39. "Ukrainians are doing everything and giving everything they have for this, and they will not stop. They are fighting for their future, and they will not give up on their future. They will not surrender to Russian capture and enslavement. They received a soft independence in 1991, which they turned into complete self-governance and independence in 2014 and now Russia has come to crush them.
Thanks to U.S. aid, the Ukrainians have not been crushed. Thanks to U.S. aid, they have taught the second largest military power in the world, that might doesn't make right. Where is the Russian cruiser Moskva? Thanks to U.S. aid, a new free nation is being born in the world. Ukraine is not giving up.
The U.S. and Ukraine’s goals and futures have suddenly collided toward the same ends, and we need only to give Ukrainians the tools they are asking for. Give Ukrainians the weapons they need, and they will succeed."
https://kyivindependent.com/opinion-from-an-american-in-avdiivka-what-is-congress-doing/
Beware of Life on Easy Mode: Stuck in the Matrix
For those who have been stuck in a cave for 24 years, the Matrix is this amazing sci-fi movie that came out in 1999. It describes a world where humans are put in stasis and treated like batteries by robots. In meantime, humans are living in a made up digital world, almost like the metaverse blissfully unaware of the harsh reality around them. Living a fake reality while their bodies are being harvested for energy.
Actually it’s a good metaphor for the world we live in now, consumers in debt chasing the next shiny toy sold by big corporations, brainwashed by ads, social media, mainstream media and public schooling.
I’d argue that 70 years without major global war like World War 1 and 2 or the massive economic crisis like the Great Depression, we find ourselves drowning in comfort and complacency. Now the world is filled with sleepy, soft and weak men.
All aided and abetted by bad diets & being poor health or obese. Trapped in sedentary or Dehumanizing jobs where they are addicted to their bi-monthly paycheck, and barely getting by financially. Consuming and spending all their money on stuff they don’t like to impress people they don’t know.
Add to this, how they use their time: on Social media for quick dopamine hits. Or worse, following Netflix, Onlyfans, and general degenerate and addictive habits like gambling. All the while searching for fame and quick riches. Stuck in Short term thinking. Distracted by The current thing and the lies of the Mainstream Media (MSM).
Terms like NPC or LARP-ing are often used. Non Player Character is someone who is predictable or does not think for themselves. Or Live Action Role Play: people pretending and acting out a character. Fake and unreal. And all uncomplimentary obviously. Sadly most people fit in these descriptions to the tee.
Bowtiedbull wrote:
“Everything that has happened in the past 5-10 years or so has all benefitted the people at the top: 1) wealth inequality, 2) dating inequality, 3) income inequality and 4) even location inequality due to the ability to leave if running an online biz
Won't get better, will worsen.”
Source: https://twitter.com/BowTiedBull/status/1682091694479515658
The guys are right: We see the growing surveillance state and power of multinational corporations. With Growing wealth inequality we see the ongoing death of the middle class in the West. And for some of us, something feels very much wrong. That we are becoming numb to life. This is the real Matrix we are trapped in.
“For years, man ran outside, overcame natural obstacles & conquered the elements. Today the average man struggles to walk up stairs. We were meant for more than what modern life demands.
Our bodies crave activity.
Our minds crave challenge.
Our soul demands purpose.”
Source: https://twitter.com/PathToManliness/status/1681987407409733632
Living in “Hard mode” is the way out. Fix your diet. Stop drinking soda and eating fast foods and foods full of preservatives. Exercise and lift weights regularly. Learn to fight and train in mixed martial arts. Take Ice baths & saunas. Sign up for marathons or extreme sports. Physical fitness is the bare minimum requirement to excellence and standing out.
Start a business and invest in yourself. Act with discipline and courage every day in small ways. Take ownership for your results. Hold yourself to high standards. Question everything and learn to think for yourself. Be generous and bring others up with you. Build your tribe. Do all the hard things you don’t want to do but know are good for you.
MasterYourBeliefs Tweeted:
“This modern life has been here for 50-60 years.
Our struggle for survival, or fighting for our life, that all has been here for countless millennia.
We are machines of 'war', not of watching Netflix and arguing online.
We crave 'real' action, not the present day substitutes.”
Source: https://twitter.com/BeliefsInHands/status/1681988535534977027
Challenge yourself like the strong men and women of old times that sacrificed and created the prosperous world we live in now.
Do all of this and you will have a chance of breaking out of the matrix so you can live the life that you dream of.
Everyone Needs a Sanctuary: Finding Your Shelter in a World of Chaos
It’s a nutty world out there. I see this every day as I travel the world. I live in the USA which is chaos and mental illness all encapsulated in a country. I also work in the fast changing tech industry which adds another layer of insanity. That’s why it’s so important to have a refuge from this. Especially a Taurus where I like things to be ordered and well planned. Predictable.
For some people, sanctuary is family, your parents, your spouse or close friends. But this is a double edged sword. In its ability to bring you incredible happiness, but also a very high level of pain and sorrow. I used to treat my household in San Francisco as this retreat but unfortunately the 2020 pandemic lockdowns pretty much destroyed this.
One of the repercussions of 2020 that society will be dealing with over the next decades is mass scarring and negative psychological impact on our kids as well as the destruction of many romantic relationships during the lockdowns. I know countless couples who broke up or divorced over the last few years with the cause stemming from pandemic times.
For someone like me, who hates relying on other people, it’s also incredibly risky. Once burned, twice shy as they say. Nothing worse than returning to a tumultuous family life on top of work. It’s unsettling to say the least.
So what can you do?
That’s why I took the advice that investor & business influencer Codie Sanchez provided, when she had gotten divorced, “one thing that helped me…. I got this little tiny townhouse that I rented. And that tiny townhouse, nesting, in a place just my own, that felt really safe was one of the weirdest unlocks that I ever had. Now I think of it as the power of place. If you can just have somewhere else, that is just yours.
My biggest recommendation for people who go through a divorce or a really tumultuous change in partner is there is something like a glass of wine or a cup of tea in this tiny townhouse. But it was mine. And I didn’t have to share it. I didn’t have to compromise and (I could) just be me. From there I could just sort of recreate again”
It really makes sense. That’s why the next closest thing which I rely on is a physical place: my hotel room, as I travel often, and my books. They provide me a refuge to meditate and calm myself. They are physical things that you can almost fully control. Your little oasis.
And it’s the first step to get you back on the right path. You need this to regain agency in a world that is constantly trying to take this away from you. Think of it as another tool that enables you to thrive in a complex world whether you are married, divorced, separated or single.
Preparing for War: Losing An Outdated Mindset (Geopolitically Speaking)
Like it or not, the world is getting tougher, more competitive, vicious and meaner. In our streets, in our businesses and in our everyday lives. This is due to global macro changes. Pax Americana is ending, we are entering a multipolar world. Or better said when the king looks weak, all the pawns will make their moves.
With the end of American hegemony due to profligate spending, wasting money and blood and senseless wars in the middle east by grifting incompetent political elites, we are tired and cynical. Our enemies in the new Axis of Russia-China-Iran-North Korea are circling and chipping away at us and our allies, taking advantage of the cracks and issues in our societies.
Yet the American and Western European populace are still dangerously complacent. Or worse, wrapped up in their woke stupid luxury beliefs indulging in degeneracy. Railing against inequality, hating and blaming our history and refusing to understand the depth of the threat against our way of life. Squandering the freedom that our forefathers fought and bled for. Unwilling to sacrifice and ignorant of the repercussions.
Our new Axis of evil enemies have exploited our openness and ignorance and through social media like Tiktok turned us against each other. To go to another fictional character of the Marvel Universe: Baron Zemo said once: “An empire toppled by it’s enemies can rise again. But one which crumbles from within? That’s dead. Forever.”
Unfortunately this is the direction we are heading as a civilization. Western civilization which we all take for granted. The barbarians are the gate! Look at what the Russians are doing in Ukraine, or what Hamas has done to Israel on October 7th, 2023. Or look at what the Houthis, who are Iranian proxies, are doing in the Red Sea by disrupting sea lanes and trade which most of us are highly reliant on.
This brings me to a scene in the remake of Star Trek: Into Darkness the movie, Spock interrogates Khan, the genetically engineered old Earth conqueror.
Khan says: Alexander Marcus needed to respond to an uncivilized threat in a civilized time. He needed a warrior’s mind. My mind. To design weapons and warships”
Spock: “You are suggesting that the admiral violated every rule and regulation he vowed to uphold simply to exploit your intellect.”
Khan responds: “He wanted to exploit my savagery, intellect alone is useless in a fight. You can’t even break a rule, how can you be expected to break bone.”
There is a lesson here. We need to wake up. We need to get strong and not be afraid of wielding whatever strength, economic or real weapons that we possess. We need to be ready to go full Viking savagery on our enemies. The stakes are high. If we lose, we lose everything: Our prosperity, our way of life, our freedoms.
No one wants violence, no one wants war. But as the old Leon Trotsky saying goes: “You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.”
Or put this in another way. Using A Louis L’amour Western theme, we are now leaving a big city where there is civilization, law and order and police to stop the bad guys (well, not if you are in a stupid Progressive left-run city like San Francisco or Chicago or LA, that is another story).
We are now entering the wild west frontier full of hostile Indians and bandits ready to kill you, harm your family and take your stuff. A world where might makes right and where your softness, decency & civilized behavior is now a weakness. In this world, survival should be your first thought and priority.
If you are as convinced as I am that we are in a fight right now, we need to prepare our minds, our bodies, our families, our economy and our countries for this. “Si Vis Pacem, Para Bellum” translated into English means “If You Want Peace, Prepare For War."