Watching Your Back: Defense is Offense
The funny thing about becoming an adult. There are always problems in some sphere of your life, health, finances, business/work and family. And as much as you try to separate all these spheres of your life, it easily spills over. The highs of life are when you have alignment of all these aspects, but the other side of this alignment is when things go wrong.
In life, there is a rule of three. So when things go wrong, they go wrong in so many aspects at the same time or in quick succession that it becomes very overwhelming. It happened to me in 2001 and vividly in 2020. 2022, 2023 and 2024 so far were not exactly fun for me either.
My health and business life seemed to be going well, but my family life has been pretty disastrous the last few years. And you cannot help but be affected by it. And here is the thing: you cannot hide from it forever. You eventually have to deal with it.
Using a military analogy, you cannot attack at the front if your back is unprotected. The most terrifying thing to happen to an army is when they are attacked from behind. Very few armies come back from this. They usually end up being overwhelmed and destroyed.
This analogy is relevant for our lives. You can’t in the long run, sustainably do good work in your career or business if your family life is a mess. This is literally why the role of military NCO’s aka sergeants are so critical. Before the mission or deployment, they check with each member of the team to understand if there is anything going on at home that will affect their performance in the field. Bad performance leading to fatalities of themselves and their teammates.
Repercussions in business are not as severe. But for long term success, I either have to fix my family issues or frankly stop being in a family as hard as it is. But to figure this out, using the same analogy, you have to gather retreat to get perspective and gather your resources. Rest and refit before you jump back into the fray.
That’s why I spent a lot of time on the road in 2023 and 2024. Yes, there were lots of business reasons for sure as Q2 & Q4 usually tends to be crazy. But frankly, I had to find a “sanctuary” or “safe house” metaphorically to clear my head. As I had written before, a place that I’ve discovered sadly is that my true home and comfort is a nice hotel room overseas. A setting I know very well over the last 20+ years of working and building businesses abroad. A place you can retreat, rest and lick your wounds, think, and plan. This gives you a chance to tackle your problems and protect your back. Only then can you truly perform at your best and get back on the offensive in life.
A for Effort: Relentlessness is a Big Predictor of Success
I had an interesting discussion with my therapist recently as I discussed some stuff that was happening in my business life and family. She said she noticed I tend to be pretty judgemental of myself and also others. I tend to be very black and white. I tend to be pretty hard nosed. I definitely agree with her and think it’s true. It’s served me well, by having high standards.
You either meet them or you don’t. But for me, it’s less about how much money you have or how successful you are (that’s an a–hole move and growing up poor, i’d never treat people the way i was treated as a worker in Canada). Although results do matter. BUT to me what counts, It’s whether you try hard or not. It’s how much effort you put into things. Small things and big things.
I happened to go to a lovely dinner at Alisa steakhouse in Vancouver at the end of 2023, for a VC dinner hosted by my friends at Panache Ventures. The waiter was incredible. I mean not just professional but really top of his game. The food was delicious but it was the whole delivery and packaging that made the experience exceptional. How and when the dishes were cleared, food being sent in at the right moment. But more than that he was an artist. He cared and put in the effort. You could tell he put in the time and was experienced.
This is why I love the craftsperson culture of Japan. An intense focus and effort on excellence whatever they do. Yes, results matter but it’s almost inevitable to reach some level of success if you keep at it. This is what I see in the startup and entrepreneurial world.
The best founders never quit and just figure it out. Especially when times get tough. They do what needs to be done, whether mortgaging their house, firing 75% of their staff or whatever.
We’ve seen so many wannabe entrepreneurs drop out in 2023 & 2024 because it got tough on fundraising and customer front. It’s one thing to quit after you have been working on something for 2-3 or even 4 years. It’s another thing to drop out after a year, or 9 months or even 6 months. YES, these actually did happen in my portfolio. 2021 vintage. Peak ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Phenomenon) bubble.
I am judgmental. I judge people on the level of effort. I judge people on their willingness to face their fears and do hard things. I judge people on their commitment. There is no reason to half ass anything. Unless you have a medical condition, there is no excuse for not giving your all.
If you do commit and give it everything, I guarantee in America, you will eventually get what you are looking for. The bar is so low, most people give up too quickly or worse, don’t even start or do anything, let alone put in the work. So go forth and as the Japanese say: “Ganbatte” or “Do your Best.”
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads June 9th, 2024
“Count your age by friends, not years. Count your life by smiles, not tears.” ― John Lennon
"Putting it more simply, it may be that all the data starts to fall into patterns, perhaps fractal-like repeating patterns. Our job won’t be to guess the price of the S&P or the Yen anymore but to rely on AI and supercomputing to tell us how all financial instruments are moving in repeated patterns over the course of time. We’ll stop focusing on prices and start focusing on the movement of prices. Instead, of looking at price moves, we'll start focusing on the movement of the financial system as a whole.
Dredge says, “This brings us full circle and ties perfectly back into the teachings of Taleb and Mandelbrot, the power law distribution of things, and the non-smooth fractal nature of the real world. Likewise, the work from Per Bak on Self-Organized Criticality and the fact that relevant change in systems comes through significant phase transitions, that evolution jumps along the paths of Punctuated Equilibriums. It is the divergence that matters and ever more so the greater the scale of the variation.” In other words, volatility at the global financial systems level is very different from volatility at the level of the US bond market.
This means maybe we won’t have specialists in US Government bonds or Japanese government bonds. Maybe we won’t even have bond specialists. We’ll have people who are reading the patterns of all financial instruments in all markets all at once. This brings a whole new meaning to what we call global macro."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/salt-honey-and-half-a-poppy-seed
2. This is an important story. Ignore the clickbait title. Anduril is one of the most important companies in the West now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ItLFpYha6Wc
3. Insightful take on West Africa. Geopolitical earthquake coming here if Nigeria wakes up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctbNdrSCWt4
4. "This point of view, manifest in a model funded by some of Silicon Valley’s wealthiest investors, fits what I’ve observed in my own coaching practice: Many founders have a needlessly fraught relationship with wealth. As a result, they either downplay their financial ambition and lower the bar on the value they create, or lean into unscrupulous, short-sighted practices that they believe are inherent to making money.
We need to rework this perspective. One can do many amazing things with money—especially if one is creative and high agency.
Consider your tradeoffs, prioritize, and revisit your choices regularly and actively to ensure your life-building project is moving in the direction you want. Only you can know whether the tradeoffs are ultimately worth it—this is your life to build."
https://every.to/p/the-moral-case-for-making-money
5. I always have to rethink my assumptions and views geopolitically after listening to Andrew Bustamante.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0fFNX8qVLY
6. Pieter Levels has been an inspiration for many people.
https://medium.com/@rushabtated4/3m-an-year-pieter-levels-d6f6808a6a02
7. This is a deeply insightful conversation on the art of VC from one of the best in the biz.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U4NFkF7jCmg
8. The best convo on Silicon Valley businesses these days.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHYoSBixdPI
9. "If you get a paycheck, whether it’s salary or freelance, and that’s how you pay your bills, you’re an Earner. Owners, on the other hand, might collect wage income, but their real money comes through profits from investments: stock sales and dividends, rent from property, and other income streams derived from the ownership of assets.
To be an Earner is noble; you work for a living, and labor is a sacred thing. Labor is the source of food, shelter, entertainment, and every material pleasure of society. We even celebrate it with a holiday, the first Monday in September. Pro tip: If you want to celebrate Labor Day somewhere awesome, try as hard as you can to become an Owner.
Think of building wealth as launching a rocket ship into orbit. Rockets burn 95% of their fuel to escape Earth’s soupy atmosphere and incessant gravity. Once you get to orbit, you’re a master of the universe — covering thousands of miles with just a touch of propulsion. Wealth is similar. The atmosphere is your expenses; the distance traveled, your income.
Most of us never generate enough current income to make the jump to space and become an Owner — save enough to invest so our primary source(s) of income are passive. Investing is difficult, if not impossible at low income levels. Saving your first $100,000 is incredibly hard. The next $100,000 is tough, but you now have momentum and start to see the curvature of the Earth. Once your current income is substantially greater than your expenses, and you’ve deployed an army of capital that fights for you and your family in your sleep, you’ve made the jump.
What we’ve done with the tax code has rendered the atmosphere thicker and gravity stronger. Go to law or medical school, or live at the office, and you’ll see your (current) income increase, but you’ll also lose a bigger share to taxes, and the harder it gets to save and escape the gravity of being an Earner."
https://www.profgalloway.com/earners-vs-owners/
10. "The key thing to understand about this decoupling, I think, and the reason it’s for real, is that this is something the leaders of both the U.S. and China want. No matter what you heard in 2018, this is not a case of a protectionist U.S. trying to defend its manufacturing industries while China becomes the champion of globalism. The U.S. is acting not out of concern for its industries — indeed, its chip industry will take a huge hit from export controls — but because of how it perceives its own national security. And China’s leaders want to shift to indigenous industry, regulated industry, and even nationalized industry, even if that shift makes China grow more slowly.
The decoupling between China and the developed democracies, so long a topic of conversation and speculation, now appears to be a reality. A critical point has been reached. The old world-economic system of Chimerica is being swept away, and something new will take its place.
One reasonable prediction is that the era of global value chains will not come to an end. Offshoring and supply chaining are just how companies know how to produce stuff now, meaning that — barring a very catastrophic war — we will not go back to an era of largely self-contained national manufacturing economies. Instead, supply chains will shift into blocs.
China is obviously one bloc; Xi and his followers want China to make and own everything valuable in-house and rely on other countries only for raw materials and other low-value goods.
In the absence of the U.S.-led liberal world order to enforce free trade, securing those resources will require geopolitical and even military action — a return, in some form or another, to the pre-WW2 era that will doubtless draw at least scattered protests of neo-imperialism. There will be struggles over the resources of some neutral countries, including poor countries, and this could turn into some ugly Cold-War style proxy struggles.
The second bloc is less certain. I expect the Biden administration and/or its successor to get tripped up for a while by the mirage of a self-sufficient U.S., and to implement “Buy American” policies that hurt our allies and trading partners and slow the formation of a bloc that can match China.
But if Americans can finally pull their heads out of their rear ends and recognize that their country doesn’t dominate the world the way it used to, there’s a chance to create a non-China economic bloc that preserves lots of the efficiencies of the old Chimerica system while also serving U.S. national security needs.
That bloc would not only include America’s formal allies or the developed democracies; instead it would include lots of developing countries that would like to hedge against Chinese power and secure access to rich-world markets."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-end-of-the-system-of-the-world
11. "As diverse as these innovations are, there is one thing these innovations in autonomous weapons have in common: they point to a world where trade, travel, and connectivity can be actively contested. A contested world where small states and even smaller insurgent and criminal groups can use autonomous weapons to;
--reliably, inexpensively, and selectively
--disrupt, blockade, or redirect trade, travel, and connectivity
--on land, air, and sea over vast distances or focused within urban environments."
https://johnrobb.substack.com/p/a-contested-world
12. "It’s important to reiterate that none of these theories are mutually exclusive. It’s possible that the objectives of war production, industrial policy, forced deindustrialization of rivals, and recession-fighting simply align in the minds of China’s leaders. And it’s possible that natural forces like China’s recession and a long-term shift of manufacturing to China are lending a helping hand to the government’s effort. All of these theories could be true at once. Or perhaps only some subset of them.
But I think breaking the possibilities down in this way is a helpful prelude to thinking carefully about what tariffs and other protectionist measures might realistically hope to accomplish."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-is-china-producing-so-many-export
13. Excellent conversation this week. Silicon Valley is popping.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDr1983LIuo
14. "In the US we’re used to discounting career claims. We drill down. We ask, “what precise role did you play?” We use behavioral questions. We check references, both those provided and backdoor. It’s all a normal part of the process. We do it without thinking.
But European founders are not used to all this. They come from an understated culture where people tend to discount their accomplishments. To understand a European resume, an American might need to amplify it. Think: “yes, we grew the company from $20M to $200M but I was only part of the team that did that,” when they were actually its leader who built it from nothing.
What happens when a culture of understated accomplishment meets a culture of overstated achievement?
“These people are gods.” That’s what happens."
15. "The convergence of FinTech and SilverTech presents promising opportunities to address the financial needs of an aging population and facilitate the transfer of wealth between generations. By leveraging innovation and a commitment to inclusivity, fintechs are reshaping the future of wealth management and empowering seniors and their families to build towards a brighter financial future."
https://99tech.alexlazarow.com/p/four-ways-startups-will-capitalize
16. Important discussion on geopolitics and war in the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hiiRbyhx7cs
17. "Classic tacos include al pastor, carnitas, barbacoa, guisados and tacos de canasta – and the search for the best of each has been the subject of countless books and TV shows.
Of the 18 Mexican restaurants given one or two Michelin stars this week, El Califa de León stands out for its earthiness. Arturo Rivera Martínez, one its chefs, has been serving customers for more than 20 years. “The secret is the simplicity of our taco,” Rivera Martínez told the Associated Press on Wednesday. “It has only a tortilla, red or green sauce, and that’s it. That, and the quality of the meat.”
18. Great discussion today on how to build a great venture fund. Brand new vc fund Saga & what they have learned from the top veteran VCs & operators.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WlSOaN45Xk
19. Bullish on gold and commodities.
https://jaymartin.substack.com/p/is-it-finally-fun-to-be-a-gold-investor
20. We absolutely need to bring manufacturing back to America.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8OThw1Y1ChU
21. Important discussion for defense-tech founders and where we sit in the world geopolitically. The world has changed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HN8H6JQGFXA
22. For fellow Dune fans, this is coming out soon on HBO. Dune Prophecy: a Prequel
https://manofmany.com/entertainment/movies-tv/dune-prophecy
23. Good convo on VC and tech with an east coast view.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJui5p9xnbU
24. "The list goes on. Gold is breaking out to all-time highs in every currency as it appears to be reintroduced back into the global monetary order as a neutral reserve asset.
I continue to pick up breadcrumbs and I am watching the signposts. I think the next few weeks could be extremely interestingly and I intend to be all over it.
I love the Lenin quote. I’ll use it again here: “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”
https://thealetheanarrative.substack.com/p/economic-warfare-continues
25. Good discussion here as always on timely topics in VC and Silicon Valley.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGu2W0yqN6g
26. Important global macro discussion from one of the best observers around.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWs7H503OOk
27. "But they were ultimately a bunch of cowards who weren’t even willing to get a bloody nose for their so-called beliefs. And France’s ‘civil war’ was over in no time.
This is one of the great lessons from history: it’s easy to pretend that you stand for something when the cost for doing so is absolutely nothing. You only find out what people truly believe when their own blood and livelihood is on the line.
In our modern era, we have equally incompetent, idiotic, wimpy politicians who are devoid of backbone. They have no clue how the real world works, and they live a life of lavish status courtesy of the taxpayer.
Let’s be honest: an actual “war”, i.e. shooting, violence against violence, etc. isn’t going to happen.
Just like the French civil war in the mid-1600s, the majority of the hyper-angry progressive rebels in America today are elitist cowards. One need only take a look at the people who have taken over the universities: they’re idiot kids, not terrifying holy warriors."
https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/civil-war-really-150863/
28. "Soft skills like communication actually materially impact the terms of trade between individuals, reducing friction, coordination costs, and thus enabling greater frequency of task trading to solve increasingly complex human capital challenges.
So in a world where more rote and routine tasks are going to AI, and where complex tasks remain the bread and butter of what human workers do, it makes sense therefore that there are a premium for these soft skills that enable greater task trading, and reduce coordination costs. This was the thesis of my book, and why “the Liberal Arts will rule the digital world.”
Thin startups of tomorrow will ruthlessly prioritize accuracy, precision, and economy, meaning they will prioritize listening and humility to find product market fit, internal culture to continually refine precision and execution, and leverage new tools such as AI to trim and refine the inputs necessary to achieve more company on less."
https://ideas.scotthartley.com/p/the-thin-startup
29. "The global elites have various policy tools to prop up the status quo, which inflict pain now or later. I take the cynical view that the only goal of elected and unelected bureaucrats is to remain in power. Therefore, the easy button is constantly pressed first. Hard choices and strong medicine are best left for the next administration.
A series of extremely long essays will be needed to fully explain why the dollar-yen exchange rate is the most important global economic variable. This is my third attempt at describing the chain of events that led us to crypto Valhalla."
https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/the-easy-button
30. Good conversation on the growing Defense-tech sector and investing/selling in it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dvSkppg90o
31. "Peter W. Singer, a defense analyst and author of 2009 best-seller “Wired for War”, sees the war in Ukraine as playing a similar role to the Spanish Civil War, which served as a dress rehearsal for new techniques and technologies ahead of World War II. Modern tank warfare and aerial bombing — as captured in Pablo Picasso’s dramatic oeuvre Guernica — were arguably forged in the Spanish crucible."
32. Valid discussion on how critical timing and execution is in Silicon Valley for big technology waves.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6VV3t9minM
33. "China hasn’t yet proven the superiority of its system, but its successes raise the uncomfortable question: Can this be what wins? Can universal surveillance, speech control, suppression of religion and minorities, and economic command and control really be the keys to national power and stability in the 21st century? How could that be true, when those same things failed so comprehensively in the 20th?
I don’t know. But it’s useful and to think about how and why totalitarianism might be well-adapted to the world of the 21st century. In fact, I have a theory of how this might be true. This theory is only a conjecture — it’s something I don’t believe in, but also something I can’t yet convince myself is wrong. It’s a refinement and extension of some of the things I’ve written about before, but over time I’ve begun to bring these ideas together in a more coherent form.
So here you go: a theory of how totalitarianism might naturally triumph. The basic idea is that when information is costly, liberal democracy wins because it gathers more and better information than closed societies, but when information is cheap, negative-sum information tournaments sap an increasingly large portion of a liberal society’s resources.
But we shouldn’t accept this theory as true just because I managed to write a halfway-coherent blog post about it. We should continue fighting for liberal democracy, and hope that technology and human nature allow for its continued victory. We should try to tweak our institutions to prevent our time from being cannibalized by information tournaments — restraining the excesses of high finance, limiting campaign spending in order to give legislators more time to govern, directing more capital to long-term risky high-tech projects, and so on. Liberalism may or may not still have the advantages it had in the 20th century, but whether or not it does, we shouldn’t give it up without a fight."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-liberal-democracy-might-lose
34. "There are two workloads in AI : training the models & running queries against them (inference). Today training is 60% and inference is 40%. One intuition is that inference should become the vast majority of the market over time as model performance asymptotes.
However it’s unclear if that will happen primarily because of the massive increase of training costs. Anthropic has said models could cost $100b to train in 2 years.
“In our trailing 4 quarters, we estimate that inference drove about 40% of our Data Center revenue.”
The trend shows no sign of abating. Neither do the profits!"
8th Grade: Reminders and Lessons from an Awful Time
I watched the excellent movie “8th Grade.” Boy was it hard and enlightening to watch, as we track a young girl named Kayla on her last week at 8th grade before she heads to High School. There is a quote in the movie that sums it up. “8th grade is the worst. I was, like, a complete mess when I was your age.”
I grew up in Canada but anyone I talk with here in the US or Canada pretty much felt the same way. What a strange time: your body is changing, head full of hormones that you can’t think straight and surrounded by people you are trying to impress as you try to figure yourself out. You never felt like you fit and were not one of the cool kids. You feel like garbage. Thankfully, I always had older friends who helped me through this.
And to make things even worse for this generation, they are aided and abetted by social media like snapchat and Instagram: talking about wrecking your brain and making you feel even crappier. Cool is just on a whole different level now.
I even felt for her father in the movie (and my parents), who have to suffer through temper tantrums, the stoney silence and rage of frustration from a crappy day at school. And as a parent, you have no clue what’s going on, feel powerless and not sure what to do. You just have to take it. I can tell you as the dad of a 14 year girl, I’m right there now.
Whatever you are going through now as an adult, just remember how awful that time in 8th grade was. It sucked pretty badly for me and pretty sure for you too. And you got past it. Just like all the other challenges along your life to get to now. Look at how far you have come.
So quoting Kayla: “some parts of growing up will be really hard and not good, I promise that growing up will get really good.
And I know you probably don’t want any advice from a dumb 8th grader, but if high school sucked for you. I’m really sorry about that.
Just because things are happening to you right now, doesn’t mean they are always going to happen to you. And things will change. And you know, you never know what’s going to happen next, and that’s what makes things exciting and scary. And fun.”
Finding the Efficient Frontier: A Tool for Optimizing Your Life
I’ve been on Tai Lopez kick recently and he introduced a really interesting use case of the Efficient Frontier framework from Harry Markowitz. Famously used on Wall Street by Hedge funds investors, the Efficient Frontier methodology is how you figure out the optimal price and mix for an investment. “The efficient frontier graphically represents portfolios that maximize returns for the risk assumed.”
But Tai actually adopted this for many aspects of life. So for example, he talks about money. Not having any money is bad. We can’t afford to buy anything nice or take care of our families. And if you have no money, good luck on any success on the dating side.
So we start working on a business or get a better paying job. Our life starts getting better. We’re happy. But as we men tend to be extremists, we keep going. Making more and more and more money. Where we start to focus so much on making money that we ignore our family, our health. We start attracting the wrong kind of attention, from frivolous lawsuits or gold diggers. So our life becomes bad again.
Another example he uses is health. For a guy, not having any muscles makes you look weak, and women in general will not find you attractive. So you start to work out and build muscles. You start to get compliments and attention. So go further and use steroids and build crazy muscles. But then you start to look grotesque and women find you unattractive again.
In both cases, we’ve exceeded the optimal point of success.
So the lesson at macro level:
It’s better to be known than famous.
It’s better to be on the rise and then to have arrived.
Be a prince and not an emperor. It’s because you end up with a big target on your back. Everyone wants to take down the emperor.
Basically the point is: know when the optimal point of whatever you are doing. Yes, test the limits, this is where progress and growth is. Sometimes you only know where the top is when you pass it. But don’t overdo it if you can avoid it. Don’t overshoot. Extremism is bad in all things. Find your efficient frontier. As Morgan Housel wrote: realize “the power of enough.”
Nobody Knows Anything: Leadership is Hard
No surprise I grew up watching Star Trek Next Generation as a teen and it definitely was a big influence on my life. I loved that show because it was not just action but explored a lot of philosophical, societal and life issues. There was one specific episode called “Attached” (Season 7, episode 8 if are you interested) where Captain Picard and Doctor Crusher accidentally end up in an alien prison cell with devices attached to their necks that mysteriously allow them to hear each other’s true thoughts-whether by choice or not.
During their escape there is a scene when they become lost. Captain Picard takes charge and sets the direction. Dr. Crusher, because she can read his thoughts, realizes and says “You don’t know where you are going do you?”
Paraphrasing Captain Picard: “I’ve found as captain in a leadership role, being confident and pretending to know, is important to setting direction.”
This seems to be telling of life, adulthood and leadership. I’ve realized as I’ve gotten older and having met so many people, that everyone is making it up as they go along. Joining established companies and venture funds, that from the outside looked beautiful and pristine were true disaster zones on the inside. Top business leaders, investors, media luminaries, mentors, parents and folks you look up, are mostly winging it. They are just more experienced in doing it and are able to act more confidently. Basically, everyone you think has it all figured out or looked up to is probably muddling through life like you. There are no adults in the room.
I’m not saying you should not pay attention or listen to advice/guidance from them. You should because they have seen more than you have. But you need to learn how to get advice and knowledge from a wider range of sources and learn to think for yourself.
As Romeen Sheth wrote:
“To go from nothing to something takes hard work, intent and skill.
To go from something to amazing takes the same, but it also takes luck.
If you are lucky enough to be great, take it with a dose of humility.
And if you are looking up to greatness, take it with a grain of salt.”
It’s also true that most people just want to be led. Making decisions and taking responsibility for yourself is hard. It’s just much easier to just follow your boss’ or an authority's orders. But this is also the road to inevitable mediocrity and despair. Remember if you want to take charge of your life and be more happy, “agency” and ownership is a key piece of this.
And if you are a founder or a leader, even if you are not 100% confident, it still helps to act like you are certain, set a clear direction and have a good vision. Most people will still follow along unless they hate or don’t respect you, which is a whole different issue. Everyone is thirsting for real leadership in the world today and now is the time to step up if you think it’s you.
Alexander the Great was reported to have said: “I am not afraid of an army of lions led by a sheep; I am afraid of an army of sheep led by a lion.”
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads June 2nd, 2024
“Nobody can bring you peace but yourself.” —Ralph Waldo Emerson
This is a good rundown of what’s happening economically in various countries in the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQ4fWdjWLiE
2. "Too often, entrepreneurs try to sign free “customers” in an effort to get the product used, and that usually doesn’t work. It’s much better to have the customers pay at least something so that they’re bought in and provide honest feedback. As an entrepreneur in the early days, it’s easy to get caught up in fundraising and selling a vision. But the first huge milestone is signing up 10 unaffiliated customers who love the product. It sounds simple, but it’s incredibly difficult."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/05/04/0-to-10-unaffiliated-customers-as-1st-major-milestone/
3. "Ukraine is facing increasingly tough odds in its defensive war against a better-resourced, better-equipped enemy. Thanks to delayed aid from Washington and shortages in other NATO warehouses, Ukraine has lacked artillery shells, long-range missiles, and even air defense munitions.
These drones, however, represent a bright spot for the Ukrainians. Entrepreneurship and innovation is scaling up a sizable drone industry in the country, and it’s making new technological leaps that would make the Pentagon envious.
The age of drone warfare is here, and Ukraine wants to be a superpower."
https://www.wired.com/story/ukraine-drone-startups-russia/
4. A man who give's no F--ks and willing to put money where his mouth is. Crazy good investor too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5AuzAV2KVFk
5. So many great insights here for investing and growing startups.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=04k2fFdZPmE
6. Always learn from these talks. Rabois is a top investor and operator.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s8zgNDIUW-w
7. Loved this conversation. Marc and Ben discussing all things startups and tech.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fw4p85jSfQc&t=1334s
8. Good global geopolitical discussion. If you want peace, prepare for war.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-H8ttoQQd7c
9. Watching this makes me miss Japan even more. Adventures in Kyoto and Osaka.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sveCiXo8aak
10. "A hyped venture space only exists after the winning company in that space has already been created, discovered, funded, and become popular. The very existence of the space proves the search for a winning investment is already over. This is the reality of venture investing, and the herd behavior operating in open defiance of this reality is necessarily limiting fund returns while denying capital to promising companies simply because they aren’t on trend.
Instead of hype cycle investing VCs should bet on founders, not sectors. That necessarily means rejecting hype-driven consensus. Generating substantial venture returns requires breaking from the herd and betting on companies that launch, not follow, hype cycles.
Instead of evaluating pitches on a relative standard — “How does this particular AI start-up compare to all the other AI start-ups?” — VCs should use an absolute standard. Relative wins are effectively irrelevant to the returns of any large fund. The real question to ask is: “Could this company become a category-creating monopoly? Could it come out on top of the power law?” Because those are the only companies that matter."
https://www.piratewires.com/p/venture-capital-space-for-sheep
11. A masterclass on social media marketing and how to build a business there. Gary Vee has been on top since 2006.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2seNzdajZA4
12. "Remember, three things: 1) You won the lottery of being born in the greatest country on earth; 2) No one can take away the wealth of knowledge you acquire throughout your life; and 3) You can choose what mountain you climb.
And so, even though my parents and I had no money to our name, we were wealthy beyond belief. Because, kids, “wealth” is all about how you define it. To me, wealth is not your job title. It’s not your social status. It’s not how much cash you have in your bank account.
Wealth is the knowledge that you can bet on yourself time and time again to figure it out. You’ll fall, you’ll get up again, and you’ll keep climbing. That’s OK. That will happen no matter which mountain you choose to climb. Just make sure that you set your sights on one whose peak feels worth it, no matter how challenging the path."
https://www.thewealthletters.com/p/035-the-wealthy-immigrant
13. Invaluable discussion on the art of venture capital.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uaFTiKQ5vS4
14. Japan getting closer to the West. This is a good thing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_Nv_CoR7zA
15. Lots of insights here on the venture capital industry from one of the most experienced investors in the business (29 years at NEA).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onyAulOLUU8
16. This new show looks awesome.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-tnz-GulxY
17. Great discussion on how to build an audience and media-driven business empire.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVGYxhIrVAE&t=2014s
18. "For now, the three best ways to extend your life remain boring: eating a healthy diet, exercising regularly, and sleeping well. We aren’t going to add decades to human life any time soon; living to 150 or 200 remains in the realm of science fiction. But in decades to come, advancements in the science of aging may still lead to therapeutic breakthroughs that lengthen human healthspan — the period of life spent in good health. Perhaps a few more people will become centenarians, but the real success would be having more years when you can live well."
https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/24121932/anti-aging-longevity-science-health-drugs
19. "The notion of an invincible Red Army is propaganda. The Red Army was formidable, but it was also beatable. Of its three most consequential foreign wars, the Red Army lost two.
It was defeated by Poland in 1920. It defeated Nazi Germany in 1945, after nearly collapsing in 1941. (Its win in that instance was part of a larger coalition and with decisive American economic assistance.) Soviet forces were in trouble in Afghanistan immediately after their 1979 invasion and had to withdraw a decade later.
And the Russian army of today is not the Red Army. Russia is not the USSR. Soviet Ukraine was a source of resources and soldiers for the Red Army. In that victory of 1945, Ukrainian soldiers in the Red Army took huge losses — greater than American, British and French losses combined. It was disproportionately Ukrainians who fought their war to Berlin in the uniform of the Red Army."
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/05/08/opinions/victory-day-russia-war-ukraine-snyder
20. I hope VCs pay attention to this.
https://chrisneumann.com/archives/the-beginner-vcs-guide-to-not-being-a-jerk
21. A little bit tin-foil hat but this was a good discussion on geopolitics that goes counter to predominant narrative. Net net: guns, gold, land and energy are good investments.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBKtL1vtfd4
22. "Starbucks used to be a “Third Place” that was a community hub where people could hang out. The interiors were nice and baristas interacted with their customers. The transition to mobile orders and grab ‘n go meant that store ambience mattered less. Customers cared about “how fast can I get out?” vs. “how long can I enjoy my time here?”.
Somewhat ironically, everyone rushing to mobile orders for convenience creates long wait times. This added volume turns the work of a barista from that of a quasi-artisan into a McDonald’s-like assembly line worker. Even as the product commoditized and independent coffee shops offered the old Starbucks vibe, the current Starbucks keeps charging premium prices. Sir, I need caffeine in my dome immediately. Why am I paying $6 for a Grande Iced Coffee that I have to wait 13 minutes to get when I could grab a Red Bull from 7-11 in 2 seconds?
Further, product innovation is no longer about improving the coffee but dreaming up ridiculous new drinks that look nice on the App and appeal to younger demos on social."
https://www.readtrung.com/p/starbucks-digital-dilemna
23. "If the U.S. and Europe get what they want—a crackdown on Chinese imports—it doesn’t feel like it would result in better cars. It feels like it would keep buyers of those markets locked to cars that aren’t executed as well. It’s nakedly protectionist because deep down, all of the Western auto executives and some hawkish China pundits understand that Chinese EV and PHEV models are more compelling than what European, other Asian, and American brands have come up with.
I’ve seen it with my own two eyes. We’re cooked."
https://insideevs.com/features/719015/china-is-ahead-of-west/
24. "Ukraine has the support of democracies spanning North America, Europe and the Indo-Pacific — countries committed to sustaining Kyiv’s independence and punishing Putin severely in the process. Yet that support is being matched and blunted by a cohort of Eurasian autocracies lending vital aid to Moscow and making life more difficult for the West. Two vast alliances are squaring off, albeit indirectly, on European battlegrounds. The fight in Ukraine has become the first global conflict of a new cold war."
What happens in one theater of an interconnected world cannot fail to affect others. Right now, Ukraine is where the clash between advanced democracies and Eurasian autocracies is most severe: America and its allies won’t prosper if they end up losing there.
Yet it is also worth remembering that victory in a proxy fight can occur on two levels. It is a question of who wins the shooting war. But it is also a question of which coalition better uses that conflict, by learning the relevant military lessons, strengthening the ties among its members and using this war to generate the urgency and capabilities needed to get ready for what comes next. In many ways, then, events in Ukraine will shape the future. Ukraine’s war has become the world’s war, too."
25. "That said, our best proxy is the last 30 years to make some conclusions related to your portfolio allocation and income earning strategies.
Income: We know that low-wage and mid-wage work is not going to beat money printing and asset prices. This is the message. This means you want to get the highest earning position you can get and simply do the minmum as you build equity. This has been stated on this side of the web for over a decade but now you can see it in clear numbers. Your income will erode by 50% over a 30 year frame. Even if you get those promotions etc. The high paying slots you get are not keeping up with purchasing power.
The only winner is someone using their time to build equity/assets. No one should trade their time for money unless it is a one off for fun or they are doing the minimum to pay bills.
Assets: Depending on how old you are, it is now possible to figure out what to do with all of your money. Outside of emergency funds and some 401K match stuff (guaranteed 100% returns) it is actually extremely easy to figure out
Home: This is a proxy for keeping pace with inflation/prices. Assuming you are confident the area is good for the future, it means that your house is just going to represent flat purchasing power. In 30 years the house is going to keep up with the crazy changes in the world. Both up and down. Down years it is worth less but that’s during a recession. Up years it is worth more, that is during massive *asset* price inflation. In the end it largely just tracks purchasing power (good to know!)
Tech/New Growth: Tech is largely just the top 10-20 companies + crypto and roller coaster VC projects. Any money
you put in here must be untouchable. You are going to see -80% years and +100% years. The trick is making sure you have absolutely no emotions about it. Largely not a problem for our readers who aren’t particularly emotional.
S&P 500: Essentially a worse version of being long-tech. The real benefit is you don’t have to see your net worth go up and down as much. If you have an emergency better to sell this than sell the Tech stocks because it will be down *less* than tech in a mega downturn.
Apply The 4x Rule: No one knows where taxes are going, social security adjustments, health care, oil/electricity, food etc. We’re sure some of this stuff will be up more than others in 30 years. Instead we can just use the new 4x rule.
As of 2024 assume that everything will be 4x in 2054.
Home? If you want a $1,000,000 home today assume it will be $4,000,000 in 2054.
Income? If you want to spend $10,000 a month assume you will need $40,000 a month in 2054.
Assets? If you are smart and are long stocks/crypto/tech etc. Assume that if you have $100,000 today, it’ll be worth around $500,000-$1,000,000 in 2054 (being conservative with future returns taxes etc.)"
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/making-inflation-a-non-event-for
26. "The United States has been the world’s dominant superpower for decades. But like Rome in the later stage of its empire, the US is clearly in decline. This should not be a controversial statement.
Let’s not be dramatic; it’s important to stay focused on facts and reality. The US economy is still vast and potent, and the country is blessed with an abundance of natural resources– incredibly fertile farmland, some of the world’s largest freshwater resources, and incalculable reserves of energy and other key commodities.
In fact, it’s amazing the people in charge have managed to screw it up so badly. And yet they have.
The national debt is out of control, rising by trillions of dollars each year. Debt growth, in fact, substantially outpaces US economic growth.
Social Security is insolvent, and the program’s own trustees (including the US Treasury Secretary) admit that its major trust fund will run out of money in just nine years.
The people in charge never seem to miss an opportunity to dismantle capitalism (i.e. the economic system that created so much prosperity to begin with) brick by brick.
Then there are ubiquitous social crises: public prosecutors who refuse to enforce the law; the weaponization of the justice system; the southern border fiasco; declining birth rates; extraordinary social divisions that are most recently evidenced by the anti-Israel protests.
And most of all the US constantly shows off its incredibly dysfunctional government that can’t manage to agree on anything, from the budget to the debt ceiling. The President has obvious cognitive disabilities and makes the most bizarre decisions to enrich America’s enemies.
Are these problems fixable? Yes. Will they be fixed? Maybe. But as we used to say in the military, “hope is not a course of action”.
Plotting this current trajectory to its natural conclusion leads me to believe that the world will enter a new “barbarian kingdom” paradigm in which there is no dominant superpower.
Certainly, there are a number of rising rivals today. But no one is powerful enough to assume the leading role in the world."
27. This was such a great discussion. Two of the best podcast interviewers in the business. Chris Williamson and Tim Ferriss.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9G5dXlMGMf8&t=4306s
28. Always learn new things from Zeihan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYp1Ktbz-B4&t=2245s
29. Why Taiwan matters.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vnd0uNUQqQ0
30. This week’s episode was excellent. NIA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0C7tBFxZ0g&t=2996s
31. "Forbes doesn’t seem to have called him a billionaire since the SPAC frenzy in 2021. It seems highly unlikely that he is one. (To be sure, Palihapitiya is almost still certainly very wealthy by any normal standard. And his challenges may mostly amount to liquidity problems given that much of his wealth is tied up in private investments.)
Palihapitiya has openly discussed his belt-tightening on the All-In Podcast.
In January 2023, he talked about looking at his household spending. “I haven’t really looked at my household budget in 2 or 3 years — didn’t even bother. Then when I looked at it, I was like wow this is really inflated to a level I didn’t even expect. It makes a lot of sense to live in a more heads down, austere way.”
In his latest investor letter published this week, Palihapitiya wrote, “While 2023 was full of challenges, we are near the end of the hard reset from zero interest rates. After a decade of low rates and rising valuations, many of the tailwinds that benefited us as technologists are now gone. Instead, disruptive change via advancements in AI and reshoring of critical industries are reshaping how companies are built.”
https://www.newcomer.co/p/the-dictator-chamath-palihapitiyas
32. In general seems like a good list for sober rational men.
https://lifemathmoney.com/how-to-be-happy-at-all-times
33. "Putin doesn’t need to take Kyiv to declare victory – he just needs to seize the rest of Donbas and hold on to what he has. At stake now is not Ukraine’s territorial integrity, but its survival. Slowing Russian forces in the Donbas will be critical now to this outcome."
https://amilburn.substack.com/p/fighting-for-time
34. This is such a great interview with two emerging business leaders. Nick Huber and Sieva Kosinsky.
Understanding Owned, Paid and Borrowed Media: Tools for Your Own Media Empire
I was flying to LA last year for my buddy Eric’s Leveling Up Mastermind from Vancouver. And as I was checking my email at the airport, I saw I had gotten a notification that there was strange activity on my Linkedin profile and I needed to send my ID to verify my account. I did not think very much of it, so I just sent it in.
But then I quickly realized that my entire account was hacked and shut down when several friends pinged me to see if I was okay because my profile disappeared. Why was this an issue: I use Linkedin as one of the media that shares all my articles and readings and thoughts. I had 24,000 followers there which is one of my main channels. It took me a while to get my Linkedin account back as their customer service sucks like it does on most online services.
So why do I share this story? In this digital day and age, as people spend more and more time online whatever you do in your career, your digital presence is critical. I’ve said before that everyone has to become a media company of ONE. I firmly believe that. It’s how you build your personal brand, how you get new opportunities & work, and how you get your point of view and ideas into the world. David Perell said “It’s your serendipity engine.”
But like everything it’s a double edged sword and you quickly forget how reliant you are on them, especially when you lose access. And you also quickly learn there are different kinds of media.
Borrowed Media: These are platforms like Youtube, Reddit, Instagram, Twitter or Linkedin where you can share content to their massive audiences.
Paid Media: which is the media you buy, like paid content you place in magazines or publications online or more commonly advertising whether on Meta or Google or Amazon or other players. But it’s pretty costly to use on a regular basis.
Owned Media: This is your own website, your own blog, an email newsletter or email list. You own this platform and
I’ve learned the hard way that if you build your media empire on “Borrowed Media” platforms you are building on sand. You never know when you get hacked or canceled because someone finds what you post offensive. And even losing access for a week or two hurts your growth.
This is why you need to focus on building out your “Owned media” first: newsletters or your own blog/website. It’s arguably the most important part and where you need to focus your initial energy and efforts. You use Borrowed media and Paid media to promote your owned media.
You never want to be dependent on one platform, and if you happen to have a large audience in Instagram, it’s not a bad idea to start building out on another platform once you get to critical mass on your main borrowed media channel like Snapchat or Youtube for example. Basically it’s like personal finance, focus & have a concentrated portfolio to build wealth, but then you have to diversify to keep the wealth. You have to treat media channels the same way. My lesson from losing access to Linkedin forced me to figure out Twitter.
As my friend and new media master Kevin Espiritu of Epic Gardening wrote:
“All businesses are compounding engines, but content businesses are especially so as platforms & audiences generally reward consistency over time.
You can 'freeze' a few hours of labor in time (writing one blog post, making one video) and leverage it for hundreds of thousands to millions of views over multiple years.
When given such a gift, DO NOT disrespect it by getting distracted by other opportunities, other priorities, etc.
It takes 2-3 years to spin up a micro media empire at minimum unless you're an extreme outlier, so it's tempting to give up at any point in that process.”
So if you want to build your own media empire you will have to learn the difference between Paid, Borrowed and Owned Media. And then figure out how to best utilize them. Each of these have their own advantages and pitfalls but they will be one of the most valuable tools to make your life better and help others if you use it well.
The Big Lie of Home Ownership: Freedom is Living a Possession-Lite Life
I’ve long wanted to buy a place in Japan. I just love the place so much. But last summer when I was catching up with 2 old high school friends back in Vancouver, I was talking about getting some real estate in Japan and in Taiwan. My professional wealth management friend asked me “why, if I was only going to spend 3-4 months a year max there.”
There is the hassle and upkeep of taking care of the place. Wouldn’t it be easier and more cost effective to just AirBnB or stay in a nice hotel. I could take the money I would spend on the properties and invest it in other cash generating businesses or assets.
And the benefit of not owning, is I am not locked into one location, so I can explore new neighborhoods or cities or places. Which is the whole point of travel. Especially for fixed sign individuals like me who end up hanging out in the same places over time. I need the new environment and place to force me out of my comfort zone. See new things. It keeps me from becoming stale.
So I’ve scrapped my plans to buy new properties overseas. Maybe this will change if I end up spending more than 6 months of the year in a place. But real estate ends up adding a lot of complexity in your life.
As the previously brilliant and now literally crazy Robert Kiyosaki said “Your house is not an asset, it’s a liability.” I understand the need to have a place you think you own. The reality is the bank owns it until you pay off the full mortgage. And if it does not generate cash it’s not an asset. In fact it actually becomes an anchor especially as you add up taxes and maintenance, stuff you don’t need to worry about when you rent.
It reminded me of a friend who was very unhappy at his job and was looking to do his own thing. I gave him the advice that he needed to manage his cost structure and start on the side hustle asap. Or at least look at some new job opportunities.
That was 4 months ago. I saw him again and he told me “remember when you told me to watch my cost structure? Well, with a growing family I found a good deal so I ended up buying a house.”
I knew at that moment, he will be stuck at his crap job and his entrepreneurial dreams will be stillborn. It will be almost impossible for him to take that leap while he is stuck with a monthly mortgage payment, let alone the sunk costs of his down payment. I truly hope I am wrong but he is done.
I don’t mean to be negative as I’ve been in that situation myself in the past and it’s hard to break out of this. There is too much risk in their mind to start something new even though there is more upside in it. But there is definitely more instability especially in the first 1-2 years.
So you give up your entrepreneurial dream and end up tolerating even more crap from your employer than even before. Better the devil you know than the one you don’t. This is why most bosses want their employees in debt and living paycheck to paycheck. They will own you. It’s the closest thing to legal modern day slavery.
Owning a house that does not generate positive cash flow through rentals or AirBnB-ing it, will be a barrier to freedom.
So don’t buy into the lie that you must buy a house. There are opportunity costs to the money & time you get locked into. Especially if you want to start your entrepreneurial endeavors either as a solopreneur or new business whether online or offline. The fixed costs will wreck you.
Living Well: “Me Time” and Self Care
One of the issues of constant travel and flights are the jet lag and pure beating your body takes in uncomfortable seats in pressurized cabins in flights. When you fly as long and as much as I do it starts to catch up to you. I used to be able to handle it much better when I was younger but as I creep up past 50 it does take more time to recover.
I remember doing long and overnight intercontinental flights, arriving in the morning and then jumping right into meetings. And with energy and vigor. I try not to do that anymore if I can avoid it.
Getting in one night earlier helps me get oriented. It also allows me time to do my workout and exercise regime. And with melatonin, ZMA and L-theanine supplements, get a good night's rest. Sleep is important and key to recovery of almost everything.
But what I’ve been doing more of in recent years is the use of saunas and therapeutic massages. Not only are they enjoyable but they help get circulation and blood flow back in your body. 10 years ago I used to consider these unnecessary luxuries. Mainly because I probably did not think they were worth it. Or realistically just could not justify it due to pure cheapness and money issues. Now it’s standard procedure.
I consider it a good investment in health and well being. It's a performance enhancer. It’s something that helps me feel better and be more effective. And it’s a nice treat and reward for all my work.
Don’t overlook “me time” and self care. It’s a simple and easy way to enhance your life. It’s worth paying for. Don’t be a cheapskate like me when I was younger. Invest in your quality of life. Little doses regularly go a long way towards this.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads May 26th, 2024
“Unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, nothing is going to get better. It's not.” — Dr. Seuss
"But now, my 21st year in Japan, something has happened. On Feb. 22, the Nikkei 225 closed at 39,098.68, finally breaking the record set at the end of the 1980s. It was both an economic and psychological milestone — and the result of a confluence of painstaking policy changes, geopolitical imperatives and sheer luck.
And there’s far more than the market breakthrough to prove that the country is out of its funk: everything from global diplomacy, financial and corporate vitality, military strategy, pop culture and even sports (Shohei Ohtani ranks among the world’s most famous athletes)."
2. A great discussion this week. Best convo in Silicon Valley these days (outside of BG2 & All in Podcast).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=icZCYKYMSLI
3. "AI is accelerating growth in a $75b market, 20 year old market. If these growth rates aren’t a sign of anything to come, the amount of market cap creation in front of us will be a garguantuan figure."
https://tomtunguz.com/q124-cloud-earnings/
4. This is a great discussion with one of the best investors and operators in tech. Joe Lonsdale of 8VC ( Palantir and Addepar)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBzy_hDb2W4
5. "America stands at a crossroads. The decline in our industrial leadership, contrasted sharply by China’s ascendancy, is not just an economic challenge, but a clarion call for a strategic, cohesive response. The urgency to act is not for a lack of competitors or existential threats, but from a diminished clarity about what to do about it.
We must redefine our national ethos with clear, powerful ideals to drive industrial revitalization and propel America into the 21st century. This means firmly committing to a set of principles, investing in reindustrialization — an unprecedented feat for nations that have previously de-industrialized — and drastically reducing administrative burden. The wealthiest areas in America should be innovation hubs, not regulatory centers. China does not inhibit themselves with IP issues or obtuse environmental policy. Ultimately, our policies must also foster an environment where manufacturing prowess is not only nurtured but celebrated. We must encourage daring individuals to build things, then actually let them do it.
Culturally, this means we must make doing hard, physical work cool again. Industrial roles won't out-pay Google or Jane Street, so they must attract talent through their mission and values. Before SpaceX, the smartest kids in school were not going into aerospace. Companies like Anduril and Hadrian have similarly elevated the status of their sectors, attracting top engineers to work on the most important issues. But this must happen across every industry and problem set, not just the sexy ones like space launch.
To some, these words may seem familiar, even trite. Regardless, I hope recognizing our industrial lag and the high stakes involved resonates deeply. This is not merely a matter for venture capitalists and politicians to pontificate; it involves us all.
You have a choice: actively engage in manifesting this industrial future, or face being drafted into efforts to reclaim lost ground – this time, under duress, and at a grave disadvantage, perhaps under new rules enforced by an adversary."
https://www.acruisingvoyage.com/p/war-for-our-world-17b
6. "The human brain has extensive circuitry devoted to imagining, and worrying about, the future. The seat of memory, the hippocampus, extrapolates possible futures from our experience of the past. Our default-mode network — the components of the brain most active when we’re not focused on a specific task — includes the brain regions concerned with the past and the future. Whenever we aren’t asking our brains to do something specific, they default to contemplating the future. And worrying about it.
An overactive default-mode network is associated with anxiety and depression, but a healthy measure of anxiety is one of humanity’s most valuable adaptations, comparable to language and the opposable thumb. NYU neuroscientist Joseph LeDoux says anxiety is “the price we pay for the ability to imagine the future.”
https://www.profgalloway.com/forewarned/
7. "~60% at rates below 4%?? Said another way, your wages are increasing by 5.9% year-over-year and you’re paying a fixed 4% interest rate on your house. Doggies are flush! The American consumer is consuming because it can. For many, the largest personal expenditure (i.e., housing) has been locked down, in many cases at a lower rate than the inflating wages and personal income at large.
Certainly over time, this will begin to decline as homes are sold, moves are made, and doggy houses traded, but you see the point right? This can and likely will go on for longer than you think. The US consumer drives 70% of this country’s economy, and if wages continue to climb (even at a shallower clip), the impact of the 2/3/4% mortgage rates will provide a tailwind for years to come.
So consumer strength? Expect it to continue, expect the dogs to keep running. Heck, they might even be flying soon as everyone seems to be traveling."
https://www.openinsightscap.com/p/an-ode-to-the-dog-in-you-the-us-consumer
8. "If Venetians’ fortunes were at their height, they were all too aware of how far they had to fall. Threats loomed to the east and west which might knock them off their perch. Their complete dependence on the maritime trade made them vulnerable to the rapid growth of Ottoman naval power, while her modest land empire was an inviting target for Europe’s growing powers.
Nevertheless, Venice averted any sudden catastrophe. Although nowhere near strong enough to compete head-on with the centralized states that were then emerging, her inevitable decline was long and steady, lasting a full three centuries. It was not until 1797 that she finally succumbed to the tide of the French Revolution, to which no European state was immune. The ability with which Venice managed this, emerging as well as could be expected from such a time of crisis, makes it a fascinating case-study for the problem of grand strategy."
https://dispatch.bazaarofwar.com/p/venice-and-the-problem-of-grand-strategy
9. "In hindsight, I believe one of the best things an entrepreneur can do is to find a mentor, coach, or friend who believes in them even more than they believe in themselves. Of course, entrepreneurs are often confident and visionary, but even with that, there is always a need for help and mentorship. Finding a person who genuinely cares and believes makes all the difference."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/04/27/find-a-mentor-who-believes-in-you/
10. Grim reading but doesn't make it wrong.
"In the end, no one who wants to preserve and grow their savings they worked hard for can trusts losers, and they’ll never stop what they’re doing, so we continue on course.
Plan remains the same, high net cashflow to overcome the suppressed real returns our policy makers who preach about capitalism, rules based order, and democracy force on us, and work to diversify assets across jurisdictions since there is no united front among western policy makers so best to have assets in multiple jurisdictions so one set of policy makers don’t have absolute control over your life.
Then never trust them with your bitcoin and if you store gold be careful."
https://twitter.com/radigancarter/status/1784267750833000948
11. One of the most important companies trying to scale and rebuild American industrial capabilities.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVthhttRyso
12. An excellent conversation on founding startups and doing Venture investing at a top tier VC like USV.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TacZQk1OHo0
13. "In these coming battles, U.S.-armed Ukrainian soldiers have a good chance of heavily degrading Russian manpower and equipment, Kallberg believes.
"One thing that this highly lethal equipment will do is it will increase even further Russian losses," Kallberg said, underscoring the heavy casualties Russian troops have already suffered in terms of experienced contract soldiers and officers, especially in recent months.
"For a real offensive combat, you need bigger units who can support each other… That's not going to work because Russia doesn't have tactical leaders like captains and lieutenants.
"So, facing more modern Ukrainian arms… any offensive they try will likely be a disaster."
https://kyivindependent.com/us-aid-military/
14. What a solid conversation on Islam, business and having the right mentality for success in life. Building your Custom Made reality.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1INfBlRPZ-Q
15. "The average celebrity publicist does not have fans. But Paine, the 52-year-old redhead seen trailing Swift at awards shows and rubbing shoulders with Gayle King in the Eras Tour VIP area, has become a Swiftverse cult figure in her own right. Fans post reverently about her PR machinations and share videos of her expertly attending to Swift’s needs: smoothing out Swift’s dress on the red carpet, leading Swift right past a scrum of reporters whose questions have not been approved, subtly offering Swift what appeared to be water at the Video Music Awards—a night when the star was filmed dancing in a manner that suggested inebriation.
Swift has trained her followers to look for meaning in her every gesture, outfit and Instagram caption. Paine’s own work—the stories she chooses to respond to, the narrative she puts forward in the media—has become part of that lore."
https://archive.ph/3PlhW#selection-2521.0-2537.183
16. "So getting back to NVIDIA, I don’t see any force stopping the juggernaut in the next few years, other than a huge decline in the need for AI compute, and that seems unlikely. Any startup competitor could easily be acquired by NVIDIA for tens of billions of dollars and it would barely be material given NVIDIAs market cap. And while the other major chip companies are mounting a challenge, particularly AMD, the demand for GPUs is so great, and will be for the next few years, there is room for massive growth for multiple players.
When NVIDIA eventually slows down, I suspect it will come from one of two areas. The first is a surprising shift in market use cases. Given the long development cycles of computer chips, it’s hard to be as responsive to the market demands as software companies can be. And product designers have to choose some level of predictability and reliability in their components and their partners, which is why they favor proven tech over innovative new designs most of the time. But the way NVIDIA benefited because their chips for graphics cards happened to be a good match for new AI workloads - I think something similar could happen to slow them down. Some new popular AI workload will be a better fit for something other than a GPU, but a chip that is already established in the market in other ways.
Or secondly, it comes from a company that is building their own chips and decides to get into the broader semiconductor business. This means Apple, Amazon, Facebook, or most likely - Google. But all those companies, even if they can compete technically with NVIDIA, lack the infrastructure to sell and support chips and those who develop them. Building those capabilities will be slow."
https://investinginai.substack.com/p/the-factors-impacting-nvidias-defensibility
17. Luke Belmar is the man. Always so much to learn from him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CPTv2tWDwPo
18. "The pursuit of optimization in various aspects of life is understandable, and often commendable. But the relentless desire to squeeze every scrap of productivity or efficiency from each moment has unintended consequences, and is a robotic way to live. I’m still unsure why anyone would want to take inspiration for life from insects.
I also think it’s a clear symptom of why so many people are unhappy in the modern world. Balancing optimization with flexibility, spontaneity, and an appreciation for the present moment is key to a holistic and sustainable life. And isn’t that what we should be aiming for? Not all of it might be ‘efficient,’ but that’s the point."
https://www.hottakes.space/p/the-plague-of-over-optimization
19. This video makes me miss Japan even more. I love that place. Counting down the days till I return there later this year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6USQPm8N4Uk
20. Insightful discussion on the future of democracy. Worth listening to as it does a good job predicting civilizational rise and collapse. Do we enter a new world order?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHmYg8Gtzk4&t=1s
21. "To say that everything is a cult is a bit of an overstatement, but as a general framework for understanding the world at the moment, it is helpful. The way we consume content, the way fandom works, the ways we sort ourselves into tribes and camps online, even the way lots of industries work, including the news business — it all has shades of culthood. This is easier to see if you set aside the more extreme examples of cults, like the ones that end in mass suicide or shootouts with the ATF, and instead think of cults as movements or institutions that organize themselves around the belief that the mainstream is fundamentally broken.
Understood this way, there are lots of cults, or cult-adjacent groups, and not all of them are bad. But if society keeps drifting in this direction, what will that mean for our shared democratic culture? How much fragmentation can we sustain?
Today, especially in the media and entertainment space, we have this really interesting popularity of new influencers or new media makers adapting as their core personality the idea that the mainstream is broken, that news is broken, that mass institutions are broken, that the elite are in some way broken and elite institutions are broken. The fragmentation of media that we’re seeing and the rise of this anti-institutional, somewhat paranoid style of understanding reality, I see these things as rising together in a way that I find very interesting."
22. Tai Lopez is a legend and polymath. So many great ideas and wisdom.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygnDW96vM14
23. "GQ columnist and avid gym-goer Chris Black isn’t built to lie on a beach all day. So when he needed to unwind, he caught a flight to the UAE, to spend an exhausting but rewarding week living, training, and recovering in a “Fitness Suite” 35 stories above Dubai."
https://www.gq.com/story/pulling-weeds-with-chris-black-i-went-on-vacation-to-work-out-even-harder
24. "Pairing the common warbot with the common soldier, in an effective design and execution of new doctrine, training, and acquisitions, is the difference between the American military winning future battles and bleeding out into irrelevancy.
We can’t effectively design and train large formations on man-machine teaming without first getting the basics right, and that means the integration of warbots big and small at the lowest levels. It requires everyone, from senior leaders and policymakers down to the E4 team leader, to think well and good about the integration of man and machine beyond the Terminator-ethics hysteria. Whether you like it or not, your next battle buddy might be a warbot, so start thinking well and good about how you’re gonna work together."
https://www.breakingbeijing.com/p/the-dawn-of-combined-minds-doctrine
25. Jackson has built an incredible Aerospace and defense-tech portfolio at Silent Ventures.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2oeUEpi_NUs
26. This is a good thing btw. Japan getting strike carriers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKVtkoLfxHc
27. My new fave podcast. Great discussion on what’s happening with AI models.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iTwZzUApGkA
28. Excellent episode. You will always learn new business stuff from this show.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFusIKG542c&list=PLIBc05HkMJHFpVxxZTD-_MbTAYtwAOEg_&index=1
29. "1. Paid social traffic will eventually die. When I say die, I mean it’ll stop performing well as the highest income users will pay for not seeing ads.
Today you can make a product and test it with paid ads. In the future, you will have to pay influencers to promote you. This is already true and will get even truer as social moves from free to paid.
2. The future of ads is influencer marketing. Since the only way to reach a wide audience is via paying influencers (paying the platform will be a thing of the past), the value of influencer marketing will increase.
Of course we might see some sort of tiering where the base paid social media plans will still show ads and the only the top plans are fully ad free. Even if this happens, the top customers will only be accessible via influencer marketing.
3. Build an audience NOW. If you want to profit from this trend, you need to build an audience NOW. Not tomorrow, not next week – NOW.
Start posting regularly on any social media platform and try to grow. If you do the work now you will reap the rewards later."
https://lifemathmoney.com/the-future-of-social-media-is-paid/
30. "And although his perspective is very much that of an investor, anyone — founder, investor or employee — can learn from his approach. Treat people well, help others even when you have nothing to gain in return, and be “outrageously reliable”.
In the long-term, you’ll have more success. And it’s a hell of a lot more fun."
https://chrisneumann.com/archives/to-win-transactions-dont-be-transactional
31. "So now we’re swinging back the other way, and business apps are trendy again. Between 2023 and 2024, Matt Turck’s data landscape grew by 42 percent, from 1,416 companies to 2,011 companies. The general-purpose analytics categories—BI, data visualization, and data analyst platforms—grew by only 26 percent, but domain-specific categories—product, sales, marketing, finance, HR, legal, and customer experience—grew by 56 percent.6
It’s the circle of life in Silicon Valley: Bundle, unbundle; centralize, decentralize; pivot horizontally, pivot vertically. Build multipurpose analytics and BI platforms that are sold to data teams; build domain-specific tools that prestructure common departmental data sources and predefine popular business metrics. Do your analysis freehand; trace a ready-made template. Alternate between the two forms of BI. Though each cycle works a little better than the last, nothing fundamentally changes."
https://benn.substack.com/p/bis-third-form
32. This is a pretty sober discussion. But great lessons for VCs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZKuQko0vmo
33. "New consumer devices are emerging because AI allows you to use the sensors, silicon, and interfaces developed for smartphones in novel ways. AI can take the input of large amounts of ambient data, such as the audio from your conversations and your behavior as you use your computer. Then, AI can output unique insights based on that corpus of data—much more personalized, sensitive, and accurate than what regular software can do today. It can also leverage existing data for new actions, such as following voice commands more closely. Basically, it’ll listen to what you say and bring out smart stuff that you missed.
While my description may be banal, the possibilities are exciting. Smartphones are dominant, but aren’t perfect. Consumer addiction is—at least in my estimation—largely due to the monetization of smartphone app stores and the form factor of the device. If AI can evolve our relationships with devices, it’s a meaningful change. An AI ambiently crunching data and performing tasks without the distraction of a screen is net good for humanity. And, as a happy capitalistic coincidence, it would probably make the inventor of said device the owner of several large yachts."
https://every.to/napkin-math/the-ai-hardware-dilemma
34. Cloud continues to grow along with its Capex. But this is why big players will dominate AI.
https://tomtunguz.com/capex_conquest
35. "Language barriers are the very earliest thing that companies have to overcome when they build factories overseas. The fact that TSMC still can’t even communicate in English means that it’s still very early days.
That’s why it’s so unhelpful to declare that TSMC’s factories in America are a “debacle”, just because of a modest delay at the outset. Foreign direct investment is a long, winding, arduous journey. It’s not the kind of thing where we should expect everything to run perfectly smoothly on the first try.
Meanwhile, the mystique of East Asian culture is just not a good lens through which to view challenges like this one. Cross-country cultural differences are real, but they aren’t as impactful on business as people like to think. Humans are humans, and they can learn."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/whos-afraid-of-east-asian-management
36. "Today there are striking and troubling similarities between our current moment and the original Cold War between the U.S. and Soviet Union that defined the second half of the 20th century. Once again, the world is witnessing two major powers engaged in a global competition for supremacy, trying to lock in an economic, technological, diplomatic, and military advantage anywhere and everywhere an opportunity presents itself.
Virtually every region of the planet is a battlefield for this confrontation: from the scramble to secure mining rights for critical minerals and advantageous trade deals in Africa and Latin America, to the establishment of economic and military partnerships across Asia, to backing opposite warring sides in Europe and the Middle East."
https://time.com/6971329/us-china-new-cold-war/
37. "But if we’re not wired for conflict, we’ll meet the same fate as if we never reproduced. Evolution is a competition for resources, and conflict is inevitable. The ecosystem isn’t much concerned with who plays fair: Everything is prey to something else; conflicts arise over resources, mates, territory, and pride. We either develop a reward system that deftly chooses battles, or we’ll be consumed by a species that does.
Humans are not immune. We evolved hiding in the trees while stronger, faster, and more sharply clawed creatures roamed the savanna. So we developed a robust neurological system for identifying threats, gauging their severity, and responding quickly, often before we’re conscious of the threat level. But fight-or-flight wasn’t enough to shepherd us out of the forests. First we had to develop our superpower: cooperation. The cocktail that’s made us the apex of apex predators is cooperation on the rocks of conflict. Under threat, we become a “band of brothers,” establishing “sisterhood” to “fight the power” and form “one nation, indivisible.”
https://www.profgalloway.com/enemies
38. Best conversation in tech and Silicon Valley right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkXrCso5PBo
39. "Of course, plenty of software companies sell to non-software companies. By and large, the economy is doing fine but not growing fast adjusted for inflation, so the sales from software companies to non-software companies have been slow and steady. Sales from software companies to other software companies have been nonexistent, resulting in an overall malaise in the software business.
When does it all end? I don’t know. We’re still bouncing along the bottom. At some point, things will pick up, and we’ll get back to a more aggressive growth orientation as a software industry. Hopefully, that’s in 2025, but you never know. The lack of investment by software companies and software companies selling to other software companies has been eye-opening to me and is one of the important reasons why the software industry has struggled for nearly 2 1/2 years."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/05/18/software-recession-continues/
Yudo: Lessons from The Way of the Bath
I love Japanese culture and discovering new aspects of it. I’m a big Onsen aka Hot spring fan as well. But what I love is the philosophical underpinning behind almost everything in Japan, whether it’s food, martial arts, the arts and crafts.
Japan is one of the most unique cultures in the world, it was an Island nation closed off to the rest of the world for over two thousand years until the 1600s. Yudo, or bathing culture, is an example of the unique aspects of Japanese culture and I really enjoyed the movie of the same name. It was funny but also remarkably touching.
I saw it as a fictional story version of Jiro Dreams of Sushi but around bathing culture. The Japanese search for perfection in whatever they do. One should have a philosophy of life and one should live it with purpose.
Here are some interesting thoughts I grabbed from the movie.
“Since antiquity, the Japanese people have lived in awe of nature, serving as a model for willing submission to one’s fate. And unwavering devotion to forge ahead. That is what people have called “finding the way.” The way of tea, of flower arranging, or of incense.
There is another. The way of bath, Yudo.
While the paths to perfection are many, there is no final destination point. There is only finding one’s way in daily life through assiduous practice. It is that pursuit of perfection that illuminates life itself.”
This illustrates the beauty of Japanese culture and why so many of us are entranced by Japan. But it also shows us what the path to excellence in life looks like, whatever it is that you do.
“The foundation of Japanese aesthetics is nature itself. We revere and appreciate it. We accept it as a model for how we lead our lives. Happiness is not pursued. It is realized. In the smallest pleasures lies the richness of life. That is the reason the way of the bath exists”
Yudo is about finding joy and satisfaction in the simplest things in life. Even an everyday hot bath.
“Soak in a bath, wash the heart and return to innocence. Bathing is happiness.”
Kintsugi: What is Broken Can Be Mended
It’s hard not to be depressed, distressed or weary when one looks out toward the world and news and social media.
It’s been such a rough couple years since 2020. First the pandemic and insane lockdowns, the BLM riots, a contentious election in the US. Followed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Hamas terrorist attacks in Israel Oct 7th, 2023 and the breakdown of the world into different factions. Crazy high Inflation and a strange economy where the rich get richer but where everyone else is falling behind.
Up and down stock market and mass layoffs in tech and Wall Street and now Main street.
The middle class is being crushed by technology and a new form of globalization. The populace of most countries are divided between political ideologies. Left versus right. Traditional versus Degeneration. Everyone seems insane and the world seems broken and fractured.
Many of us haven’t fully recovered from the psychological scars caused by Covid pandemic and lockdowns, especially our kids. My family and financial/business life was wrecked that cursed year of 2020.
While business-financially I’ve more than recovered, 4 years later my family life is still a mess. Especially with my beloved daughter, both being in the awkward teenage years and her lingering stress from the challenging 2020 time has strained our relationship badly. It continues to be a source of pain for both of us.
But I recently discovered a Japanese pottery style called Kintsugi. It takes broken pieces of pottery and repairs it by mending the areas of breakage with lacquer mixed with powdered silver, gold or platinum. The results are absolutely beautiful. It looks so much better than before it was broken.
It is linked to the Japanese philosophy of Wabi-Sabi: “a worldview centred on the acceptance of transience, imperfection and the beauty found in simplicity. Wabi-sabi is also an appreciation of both natural objects and the forces of nature that remind us that nothing stays the same forever.”
I’ve decided to use Kintsugi as a model for life going forward. “The Conversation” article goes on to say: “There are no attempts to hide the damage, instead, it is highlighted. The practice has come to represent the idea that beauty can be found in imperfection. The breakage is an opportunity and applying this kind of thinking to instances of failure in our own lives can be helpful.”
I believe that whatever is broken can be fixed. Especially when it’s your own fault. But like all things important it will be hard and takes immense commitment, effort and time. Commitment and effort is something I have in spades. And with some time, good results should be inevitable.
Like Kintsugi, the hope is that your breakages in life can be repaired and ultimately made even better and more beautiful with time, care and effort.
The Mongol Doctrine Part 2: Every Action Has an Opposite and Equal Reaction
I wrote in a previous post about the savagery of empire building in geopolitics and business. And as the title states there is always a counter reaction to savagery, whether from employees, competitors and other countries.
I have long deplored the weakness in the West and in most of the modern world. Cutting defense budgets, letting their militaries decline and their citizenry get complacent. But there are several countries that stand in opposition to this. Countries like South Korea, Finland, Turkey, Singapore and Poland.
No surprise, this is a direct reaction to their past history of being conquered, badly treated and despoiled by neighboring countries. Finland by Russia and Germany. South Korea by Japan & North Korea. Turkey by Greece, Bulgaria and Serbia after World War 1. Singapore by Japan in WW2 and threatened in modern times by their immediate neighbors. Poland was partitioned by Russia, Germany, Austria & Turkey multiple times.
Consequently they have developed very strong professional militaries as well as military reserves. They have it seared into their history and know really bad things happen to their people when they are invaded or conquered. I should add that the occupations by Japan, Germany and Russia tended to be particularly brutal and harsh.
This is something that seems to be forgotten by many countries in Western Europe. And I would even argue in America and Canada. I understand as many of the NATO countries including Canada are free riding on the American military and defense shield by spending below the required 2% of GDP on defense spending. The problem is America cannot be counted on as we seem to be entering a period of isolationism as the world de-globalizes and moves into a multipolar situation. Less order and more chaos.
I pray people wake up before it’s too late. The world is only becoming a scarier place. Power and strength is important. This is why bullies and criminals only prey on the weak. They know trying to tackle someone strong will cost them too much. Someone who can fight back and inflict costs back upon them. This is true at the individual level, at the company level and at the country level.
I learned this term the Mongol doctrine from a sci-fi series of Battletech, as practiced by Clan Jade Falcon. The doctrine involved the use of ostentatious violence against opposing armies and civilians alike to cow enemies into submission. Not just an eye for an eye, but 2 eyes for one of yours. A harsh and severe response to aggression against you and yours. This is the only language barbarians and criminals understand.
While I deplore violence and savagery, it’s a reality of our world. You can’t hide from it forever. And you need to be prepared to use it if someone will be coming to harm you, your family or your friends. Don’t rely on anyone else or even the police as many learned the hard way during the BLM riots in 2020 and the extreme progressive stupidity that has reigned in Blue cities of America aka LA, SF, NYC and Chicago (aka Chiraq).
Get strong. Get trained. Get rich. Get smart!
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads May 19th, 2024
“Wherever there is a human being, there is an opportunity for kindness.” — Seneca
"Transitioning from founder-led sales to a hired sales team is often a difficult process. Failure rates are high with new sales hires, and many of the lessons have to be learned over and over again.
Once product-market fit is achieved and the business is working, the next step is to hire a process-oriented sales assistant to take all the lessons learned, document them, and start mapping out the sales process. With this in place, then it’s time to hire a sales leader to build a team focused on running a scalable process and delivering results."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/04/20/from-founder-led-sales-to-a-sales-team
2. Such an excellent conversation this week. For those in venture capital, this is a must listen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lADBhTbmUQ
3. Mr Perell is a very wise young man. There is so much here. Worth listening to.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eqo-V_vMuKA
4. About time this bill got signed in the USA.
"Finally, the passing of this bill will be a considerable morale boost for Ukrainian citizens and those on the front line. As President Zelensky noted in a tweet just after the bill pased, “our warriors on the front lines, as well as our cities and villages suffering from Russian terror, will feel it.” It is a major vote of confidence in the future of Ukraine.
The passing of this bill may also prompt other nations to step up their support for Ukraine. There are multiple nations besides the U.S. that have stepped up and provided very significant amounts of aid for Ukraine, including the Baltics, Denmark, Poland, Scandanavian nations, Japan, Germany and Britain. However, some nations have been laggards, including my own country of Australia.
Hopefully this bill might prompt the government in the land down under to be a little more generous in supporting the survival of Ukraine.
But for now, the aim will be to get the aid bills back to the Senate and then signed by President Biden in the coming days.
Then the hard work of rapid delivery of aid, and the stepping up of U.S. military industrial production, begins."
https://mickryan.substack.com/p/the-ukraine-aid-bill-passes-in-the
5. Loved this conversation. All about creativity, writing and finding your own path career wise.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=udwLnrzRIVo
6. I LOVE This Show: Shogun.
"Why do you think a show about feudal Japan is really connecting with people right now?
It’s so educational. We really get to understand where Japanese people are coming from, what their history was like. It’s nothing like that right now. No one’s walking around with a sword, but it still teaches us the roots, so I’m so happy. It’s very relative, because it’s talking about politics, human relations, and understanding different cultures—things that you don’t agree with but have to accept. You can come from anywhere and still be able to relate to that. It’s fascinating."
https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/tv/a60504025/anna-sawai-shogun-mariko-interview/
7. Excellent conversation. Pomp is a friend but I learned a lot from his stories of service in Iraq. He also has a great view on business, investing & BTC and careers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ll22w3BByY8
8. "Shore Capital moves just as quickly as its founder. The health care–focused microcap investment firm sealed 801 deals from 2020 to 2023, making it one of the world’s busiest buyout shops. Its assets under management soared sevenfold to $7 billion during that period, as stellar returns convinced early investors like the University of Notre Dame and Sequoia Capital’s wealth management arm to steadily boost their commitments.
But with its 15th anniversary this year, Shore remains a minnow in the ocean of private equity—where the largest fish, such as Apollo, Blackstone and KKR, oversee more than $500 billion apiece. That’s by design. “We’ve turned away billions of dollars,” Ishbia says. “In private equity, when you’re good at your job, you raise a bigger fund. My thesis was, ‘Who stays in microcap?’ The answer is basically nobody.
STAYING SMALL is working out big time: Shore’s average internal rate of return on its 14 exits, all in health care, is 53%, net of fees. That’s nearly triple the average net IRR of U.S. buyout funds raised since 2009, according to data from Cambridge Associates. After Shore took its 20% to 30% cut of profits, its exits multiplied investors’ money by 5.5 times on average, also nearly triple the average total value to paid-in capital multiple of U.S. buyout funds raised during that period.
Shore has never unloaded a company for less than three times cost before fees, nor, it says, has it ever suffered a loss. “Those are top 1% returns in private equity,” marvels one investor who asked not to be identified, citing his organization’s press policy. “That’s rarefied air, right? That’s more like venture capital than a traditional buyout firm.””
https://archive.ph/wYUZZ#selection-691.0-695.835
9. "Gig drivers don’t face an edict for speed like past Domino’s drivers, but Wells says the requirement to be fast is built into the job, with drivers hurrying to make financial incentives, avoid bad ratings, and ensure the food is warm upon delivery.
“Your livelihood depends on you getting somewhere and getting there fast,” she says.
That kind of motivation can be dangerous.
When Behrend was preparing his Domino’s case, he remembers speaking to behavioral scientists who explained that delivery drivers stressed by time constraints get a form of tunnel vision. They focus on their destination and less on the world around them, leaving themselves and everyone else vulnerable, because they must arrive a little bit faster.
The 30-minute guarantee may have ended decades ago. But its legacy lives on. "
https://thehustle.co/originals/the-failure-of-the-dominos-30-minute-delivery-guarantee
10. "The show, called “In Good Company,” is the brainchild of Nicolai Tangen, a 57-year-old native Norwegian and former London hedge-fund manager who in 2020 was named CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management. That is the arm of the Norwegian central bank operating what is known as the oil fund, enriched by the nation’s vast oil and gas revenues.
The fund has never been bigger than it is this year, at around $1.6 trillion. But Tangen felt the fund—and the people running it—could be better understood by the public.
“We aim to be the most transparent fund in the world. It struck me that the real transparency here would be to show the Norwegian people what they own,” Tangen said in an interview. “I thought, you know, we own all these companies, we own big stakes, we actually have access to these CEOs.”
Each show featuring a corporate leader at the microphone typically begins by noting the number of shares the Norwegian fund owns of that company, along with the often eye-popping value of that investment. ($5 billion of Exxon shares, $4 billion of Nvidia, $2.2 billion of Disney, etc.)"
https://archive.ph/eHeIC#selection-2555.0-2591.7
11. I like Justin Waller. He is a good man.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MaekT0Dl1x4
12. "That disbelief was the very reason I’d been keen to study Traba, after hearing CEO Mike Shebat on a podcast. Speaking to 20VC’s Harry Stebbings, Shebat had proudly championed his startup’s long hours, “Olympian” work ethic, and mission to build a $1 trillion business. Despite having no previous interest in Traba’s market of light industrial staffing nor familiarity with Shebat’s career, I found myself intrigued by his rhetoric. He was saying something profoundly obvious in one respect – that building an extraordinary company takes extraordinary work – but also transgressive. There are few more efficient routes to an internet argument than to eulogize the 80-hour week.
Traba is taking a different approach. While peers and forebearers emulate the decadence of a banal, patronizing Rome, Shebat is aiming for something closer to Sparta. Intensity, effort, sweat – these are not the unsavory byproducts of building a company; they are the end, in and of themselves. “The purpose of life is to be defeated by greater and greater things,” the poet Ranier Marie Rilke wrote. Above all, this seems to be Traba’s pitch: tech’s best talent wants a mountain to climb, not a nap pod."
https://thegeneralist.substack.com/p/traba
13. This is a masterclass in writing and storytelling from 2 masters. What a great conversation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2BnqYArwaw
14. "Russia’s influence in its immediate neighborhood has been diminishing, too. The bulk of non-Russians in the former Soviet borderlands want less and less to do with their former overlord and certainly do not want to be reabsorbed by it. Armenians are embittered, Kazakhs are wary, and Belarusians are trapped and unhappy about it.
Eurasianism and Slavophilism are mostly dead letters: the overwhelming majority of the world’s non-Russian Slavs joined or are clamoring to join the European Union and NATO. Without Russia menacing its European neighbors, NATO’s reason for being becomes uncertain. But that means Russia could break NATO only by developing into a durable rule-of-law state, precisely what Putin resists with all his being.
Russia’s basic grand strategy appears simple: vastly overinvest in the military, roguish capabilities, and the secret police, and try to subvert the West. No matter how dire its strategic position gets, and it is often dire, Russia can muddle through, as long as the West weakens, too.
Peace comes through strength, combined with skillful diplomacy. The United States must maintain concerted pressure on Russia while also offering incentives for Moscow to retrench. That means creating leverage through next-generation military tools but also pursuing negotiations in close cooperation with U.S. allies and partners and aided by so-called Track II exchanges among influential but nongovernmental figures."
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/five-futures-russia-stephen-kotkin
15. Crypto Hayes on Global Macro. A long but valuable discussion to prepare for your financial future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hozhK-NKkQo
16. Italian Badasses of WW1. The Arditi.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlMJ7HImSck
17. Top conversation between two of the most interesting people on the internet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ql8aB0tqC0o
18. "So if you are a founder worried you’ve missed the window, don’t. It’s a land grab right now, but a single research paper can mean the difference between [not at all useful] to [useful] and therefore a new opportunity unlock. Obvious in hindsight, but tricky timing to predict. It's going to be an exciting (and wild) few years."
https://www.sarahtavel.com/p/rolling-thunder-of-ai-opportunities
19. This is a must listen to for anyone B2B founder. How to figure out Product Market Fit. One of the best frameworks I've seen in a while.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yc1Uwhfxacs&t=1545s
20. "U.S. officials are worried that their hopes of developing a green industrial base will be derailed by China. This is not an unreasonable concern, but the current focus on looming “overcapacity” in green tech (and other sectors) is both confusing and unhelpful.
Instead, the focus should be on underconsumption—both in China, and elsewhere—which is what actually threatens the viability of the green transition, as well as global economic and financial stability."
https://theovershoot.co/p/chinese-overcapacity-is-not-the-problem
21. Always an excellent conversation between two high performers in business and life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axE2Ef8_lbI
22. What a surprise, cultural clashes at the TSMC plant in Arizona.
"The American engineers complained of rigid, counterproductive hierarchies at the company; Taiwanese TSMC veterans described their American counterparts as lacking the kind of dedication and obedience they believe to be the foundation of their company’s world-leading success.
Some 2,200 employees now work at TSMC’s Arizona plant, with about half of them deployed from Taiwan. While tension at the plant simmers, TSMC has been ramping up its investments, recently securing billions of dollars in grants and loans from the U.S. government. Whether or not the plant succeeds in making cutting-edge chips with the same speed, efficiency, and profitability as facilities in Asia remains to be seen, with many skeptical about a U.S. workforce under TSMC’s army-like command system. “[The company] tried to make Arizona Taiwanese,” G. Dan Hutcheson, a semiconductor industry analyst at the research firm TechInsights, told Rest of World. “And it’s just not going to work.”
TSMC insiders told Rest of World the key to the company’s success is an intense, military-style work environment. Engineers work 12-hour days, and sometimes weekends too. Taiwanese commentators joke that the company runs on engineers with “slave mentalities” who “sell their livers” — local slang that underscores the intensity of the work.”
https://restofworld.org/2024/tsmc-arizona-expansion/
23. So many good takes on startups and entrepreneurship from Greg Isenberg. Lots of advantages of studios and multi-preneurship.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylT8SYsdrsg
24. "I sometimes catch myself thinking like a beta cuck loser. And when I do, I must remind myself of the overarching macro theme that the entire retail and institutional investing world is starting to believe. That is, all the major economic blocs (US, China, European Union “EU” and Japan) are debasing their currencies to deleverage their government’s balance sheet. Now that TradFi has a direct way to profit off of this narrative via US and soon-to-be UK and Hong Kong spot Bitcoin ETFs, they are pushing their clients to preserve the energy purchasing power of their wealth using these crypto-derivative products.
As explained above, the political situation in the US gives me extreme confidence that the money printer will go Brrrr. If you thought it was absurd what the US monetary and political elite did to “solve” the 2008 GFC and COVID, you ain’t seen nothing yet.
The wars on the Pax Americana periphery continue to chug along primarily in the Ukraine / Russia and Israel / Iran theatres. As expected, the warmongers from both political parties are content to continue funding their proxies with borrowed billions of cash money. The cost will only increase as the conflicts escalate and more countries are drawn into the melee.
Calling all degens to the Left Curve. Your hunch that money printing will accelerate as politicians spend money on handouts and wars is correct. Do not underestimate the desire to remain in office of the incumbent elites. If real rates become positive, then re-assess your crypto conviction. But until that time, let your winners run, you glorious degenerate piece of shit."
https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/left-curve
25. Instructive discussion on how to do outbound sales in startups. Worth watching several times.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PStlYeAc_zQ
26. No exits, no VCs in the long run.
https://www.axios.com/2024/04/24/venture-capital-vc-fund-advice
27. This came at the right moment for me. Listening to Justin Waller is always helpful, more so today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4JSWTyEZxbA&t=3741s
28. "A Ukrainian army that is resupplied with air defence and artillery munitions, and with the increase in morale that has accompanied the U.S aid bill approval, will make any expansion in Russian offensive operations in the coming months very difficult indeed.
The new ATACMs are an important new capability for the Ukrainians. It enhances their capacity for operational strike and complicates ground and air defence operations for the Russians.
But, like all weapons, the new, longer range ATACMS are no silver bullet. They will be an important component in Ukraine’s operational strike capability but will need to be used judiciously to ensure their best effect and to slow Russian adaptation to them.
While the Russians may eventually adapt to the impact of these weapons, as they have shown in the wake of new weapons being introduced, they are an important capability for Ukraine."
https://mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraine-gets-long-range-atacms
29. "This is all good news for founders & users : more models, more choice, better performance across domains, lower costs for training, tuning, & inference. If the recent weeks are any indication, we should expect further flurries of advances & specialization."
https://tomtunguz.com/snowflake-arctic-model/
30. "Anyway, I thought an analogy of why we should be concerned my nerd friends would easily understand is The Borg from Star Trek. They represent a metaphor for what authoritarian far left state control might look like (with a technocratic flavor, on brand for modernity). In a Borg world, you will own nothing and you will be happy.
The Borg's relentless pursuit of assimilation mirrors the totalitarian nature of communist regimes, where dissent and individuality are taken away in favor of conformity to the collective ideology. Just as the Borg assimilate other species into their hive mind, communist regimes seek to assimilate diverse cultures and beliefs into a homogeneous state-controlled system. Dissidents are quickly stamped out or locked away if assimilation is not possible."
https://www.hottakes.space/p/do-not-be-assimilated-star-treks
31. "No tranche of weapons can give Ukraine an easy path to victory—defined as the expulsion of all Russian troops from Ukrainian territory, or the achievement of a position from which to negotiate a full Russian withdrawal. (And the gratuitous delay in U.S. aid has undoubtedly made this path more difficult.)
From the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine in February 2022, reporting on the Ukrainian war effort has whiplashed between pessimistic and optimistic narratives: Ukraine is doomed! No, Ukraine is beating Russia! No, Russia is winning after all! We have now been in a pessimistic phase for the last five or six months, coinciding with the standoff over aid to Ukraine in Congress. But while sober realism is warranted, defeatism is not."
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/the-ukraine-war-outlook-a-candid-assessment
32. "Asia is a place where the U.S. is both badly needed, and in a position to do a lot of good, by helping democratic nations remain independent of an expansionist superpower. The Middle East is an increasingly irrelevant quagmire — a violent region with little to offer and little hope of resolution.
The days when the U.S. was powerful enough to defend the entire world at once are long gone. Now we have a choice of whether to stretch ourselves to the breaking point in the hopes that we can somehow bluff our way through all the conflicts at once, or to refocus our hard power on the points of maximum leverage in the defense of global liberal democracy. That doesn’t seem like a difficult choice.
So those are the five things I think the U.S. needs to do in order to bolster both its own security and the security of its allies, in the wake of the recent breakthrough on national security legislation. They are all difficult tasks that will require both sustained political will and delicate, skilled management. But I believe they are all within the realm of the possible."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/what-america-needs-to-do-now-on-national
33. "If an expert would see a few hundred examples of something in their career, an eager novice with AI is now able to process 1,000. It might be the closest we’ve ever been to true democratization of information. At what point does a novice who is willing to use AI start to overtake an expert who resists?
Studies show that AI improves performance by 43 percent for the least-skilled workers, compared to only 17 percent improvement for the most skilled. There now might only be a 5 percent gap between novices and experts. Some specialties will be safer than others, but in others, experts might not be able to command as high a premium.
Luck will continue to play a factor, but sustained differences in outcomes will be defined by good judgment, strong character, and excellent taste. Atomic Habits wasn’t guaranteed to be successful just because it had a great title and drew from the best sources. It still had to be a good, well-written book, drawn from Clear’s own life. Clear directly practiced everything he wrote about, modifying the book as he integrated its advice into his life, giving relatable anecdotes throughout. It is real human experience that will remain valuable in the future, not expertise."
https://every.to/p/how-to-become-an-expert-at-anything-with-ai
34. Another great discussion on the news from the edge of the internet and popular culture.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzS8gsOtR9c&t=37s
35. "No one should expect a Russian collapse overnight. Even the most optimistic scenarios for Ukraine envision a long and costly war of attrition. Unfortunately, the lengthy and agonizingly difficult process of passing this aid bill suggests Washington may not be so patient.
If the new aid allows Ukraine merely to preserve a new stalemate on the battlefield rather than make significant gains, international pressure on Kyiv to negotiate with Moscow may grow more prominent. Ukrainian leaders will counter that they have no reason to trust that Russia will honor such a settlement.
As for Russia’s own calculations, the passage of the aid bill was an important signal to President Vladimir Putin that there’s still strong political support for Ukraine in the United States, even if it’s not quite as robust as it was two years ago. Of course, that could all change next year if former President Donald Trump, who would likely pressure Ukraine to give up territory to end the war, returns to the White House.
Ukraine and its allies have been reaching out to Trump and his allies in hopes of hedging their bets, and in a slightly positive sign for Kyiv, Trump ended up backing the new aid package after it was structured as a loan rather than a grant, an idea he had floated earlier.
But it’s safe to say that leaders in both Kyiv and Moscow will have to continue keeping one eye on America’s political climate even as they plot their next moves on the battlefield."
https://www.vox.com/2024/4/24/24138541/ukraine-russia-us-aid-congress
Hearts on Fire: Concept of Aliveness
I heard this term and concept on a podcast interview with David Perell. I love this idea of “hearts on fire”. Aliveness. Similar to Samo Burja’s “Live Player” which I wrote about earlier: defined as “a person able to do things they have not been able to do before.”
Basically, people who live with creativity and who can make something new. Someone with purpose. This is the reason they seem so animated. Excited. Alive. You feel energized talking with them.
But most people we meet are the opposite of this. They take your energy. You feel drained after spending time with them.
It’s because most people you meet are living broken societal scripts. Unhappy. Barely getting by. Unoriginal. Unthinking. They are zombies or lichs (archaic English form for “Corpse”). Not yet dead but not alive either. Going through the motions of life. Blind on remote control. Comfortable but unchallenged. Following, not leading.
What does it take to break out and become alive? To find their purpose and authenticity. 3 very simple things: Honesty, Courage and faith.
Honesty about your feelings and reality. How about how unhappy you really are and how much your life sucks because of your own choices
Courage to take action and do something about. Even if it goes against what society, friends and family tell you. Gain a Willingness to fix and upturn the scripts in your head.
Faith that you will figure it out eventually and that you can deal with the inevitable challenges that come up.
This is how you get to live a life worth living.
Learning from the Midwit Curve: The Majority is Usually Wrong
There is the funny Midwit Curve we’ve all seen before on X formerly known as Twitter.
https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/iq-bell-curve-midwit/photos
I especially like this one: https://twitter.com/lawrencekingyo/status/1686004413666607104/photo/1
It’s a bell shaped curve where the majority is in the middle. Most people are “Midwits” in some form or other. But that is usually not where excellence or innovation happens. It’s the people at the edges that actually make sense or are right.
As Codie Sanchez says: “Excellence comes from deviance.” Reality is that the results are very binary as you will either be really right! Or really, really wrong. And that’s okay. As I’ve learned in venture capital, when you are right, it more than makes up for the loss.
When something seems stupid, unbelievable, too obvious or even like a conspiracy theory you might be onto something. Everything that was a major company now was laughed at in the early days. Companies we all know of like AirBnB or Stripe or Carta.
All my best investments were non-obvious and contentious. It’s why the billionaire investor Peter Thiel asks the question: “What revolutionary truth do you know that no one else agrees with?” Basically, what is your secret? It helps you surface overlooked ideas, beliefs or insights. Things that are not commonly known or understood by the mainstream yet. This is your edge.
As Mark Twain famously said: “Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.”
The Mongol Doctrine: Savagery Works and the Hard Lessons of History
I listened to Joe Rogan discussing Dan Carlin's excellent podcast on Genghis Khan and the establishment of the incredible Mongol empire. So many people were killed that the carbon footprint was reduced by 10 percent. Basically they killed 10% of the world’s population. 40 million people. A very distant descendent, Tamerlane took a stab at this horrific record by doing the same thing hundreds of years later, killing 5% of the world's population.
Unfathomable today as this carnage was mainly done with blade, spear and hand to hand violence unlike in our modern day industrial age of bullets and missiles.
So why do I recount this gruesome history? Well it’s the history of man and empires. People are brutal and ruthless and those who birth empires are even more so. It’s relevant to our modern day age. We see this at geopolitical level and even our business level. And there is no place in the world where empire builders thrive like America.
Quoting fictional media tycoon Logan Roy of the dark business drama “Succession”:
“I don't like being outside the U.S. for too long. There's a mercilessness I miss. Yeah, living with the safety catch off, f-cking without a rubber. Everywhere else feels so soft.”
Reality provides its own characters. Bill Gates, aka Saint Bill of philanthropist fame was incredibly ruthless when he ran Microsoft, he crushed competitors completely. The line of companies he destroyed is a very long one. Long enough that Microsoft fell under Antitrust investigation by the US government.
People forgot how brutal old business tycoons were. Folks like John D Rockefeller of Standard Oil, Andrew Carnegie of Carnegie Steel, JP Morgan, Jay Gould, Henry Ford. All pretty awful humans who built massive empires.
In our modern day we have Larry Ellison of Oracle, Marc Benioff of Salesforce, Sam Altman of OpenAI, Peter Thiel and his PayPal mafia. All brilliant business people. Yet no one should make the mistake of crossing these people.
I’ve been reading about Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Hedge fund fame. The world’s biggest hedge fund. I loved his books “Principles” and “The Changing World Order” and listened to many of his podcast interviews. He comes across as this wise, kind older intellectual sharing his wisdom.
But in the book “The Fund”, he comes across as an egotistical, narcissistic and overall horrible human being who bullies and runs roughshod over his staff. A cult leader in all but name. I know of the anti-business and anti-rich tendency of the media and society but if even 1/10th of the stories are true Dalio is not a man worthy of following.
Reality is there are very few saints out there. As Tai Lopez says: “Empires are built on blood, sweat and violence”. Even in the technology industry in Silicon Valley. In general, it’s a meritocracy and people tend to be more win-win and abundance minded.
Like everywhere, there is a dark side very few people see or talk about. I’ve also seen some pretty awful things while working here. I’m not perfect either and have done some things I’m not always proud of. I acknowledge this. I do wonder sometimes if I would have been more successful if I was more ruthless and vicious. But I have some lines I can’t cross and a code I follow. I prefer to sleep well at night.
Business empires are started and run by people. And people by nature are flawed. But that does not mean we can’t try to aspire to be and do better. Especially if you are trying to play the long game.
But we all need to be aware that there are those ruthless and even sociopathic people out there. And that is why you need to become strong, rich and self sufficient yourself to counterbalance these people. Evil wins when the good people do nothing.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads May 12th, 2024
“Be kind whenever possible. It is always possible.” — Dalai Lama
Jim Rogers is an international investing legend. I've been learning from him for 30 years now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlno_fb1m1Q
2. Lots of good insights here. Input versus output driven strategies in VC. Always some new frameworks to learn.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7n_LGvdcTo
3. "In a long conventional war, production really matters. And China has, since the turn of the century, become by far the world’s biggest producer. Even before the current massive splurge of production, China was the world’s largest manufacturer by far, making as much physical stuff as the U.S. and all of Europe combined.
The country’s current effort to increase that share even further threatens to make China the “make-everything country” in reality, turning the rest of the world into a de-industrialized hinterland. If that happens, the democracies’ edges in technology and training will prove short-lived, and they will likely lose a long war unless they can very rapidly remember how to make physical goods en masse.
In a post two years ago, I tried to illustrate the sheer size of the challenge that the U.S. and its allies are facing. It’s something we need to be taking very seriously. Anyone who scoffs at industrial policy or the idea of bringing back manufacturing in the U.S. and Europe needs to be able to answer the questions raised by this post."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/sizing-up-the-new-axis
4. "So from the perspective of dealing out a painful reprisal to Israel (for its attack on Iranian military officers in Damascus) this massive attack fell flat which is a relief for not just Israel, but the entire world as it translates into a possibly more muted response, but more on that later. The other key thing is that an international coalition worked together quickly with a number of Arab states lining up behind Israel. It proves the thesis that the Middle East is getting more and more aligned to act against Iran’s aggression which has been the root of the region’s instability."
https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/dont-yet-they-did
5. No wonder chocolate has become so much more expensive.
https://thehustle.co/originals/why-chocolate-is-skyrocketing-in-price
6. "Hype is a physical force that deserves a place on the periodic table. The global social and economic impacts hype can have are just as powerful as oxygen or hydrogen. But just as the elements are natural forces that we can bend to our will, hype is something we all ought to have a better grasp on.
Hype comes and goes. Stories wax and wane in people's minds. Conviction, true conviction, is not born of consent.
Conviction born from the draw of hype is rarely built to stand the test of time.
Investments made in the peak of hype rarely turn out to be the best mechanisms to compound capital.
Careers bred in the throes of hype are rarely anchored in fundamental truths.
People need to understand the sine waves of hype as the energy around a category inflates and deflates. Some, like meal kits or micro mobility, were maybe never going to persist. Others, like crypto and VR, are simply being forged in the fires of hype inflation and deflation.
The most important lesson, I think, is for more people to try and build things because they believe they are true. Because they're based on true principles. Critics and champions will come and go. But conviction, banked and cooled by belief and pragmatic evaluation, can be unstoppable."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/hype-deflation-and-inflation
7. "In the end, this quest for a moral billionaire forced me to confront my own beliefs about wealth, power, and the nature of goodness in a complex world. I finished the exercise with hope—not because I found a simple answer to the question of what it means to be both wealthy and virtuous, but because I have discovered that even among the most powerful, there are those who strive to make a positive difference. While money corrupts, it does not corrupt absolutely.
Even within a system that often rewards greed and self-interest, there is room for those who choose to prioritize the greater good. And that, in itself, is a reason for hope."
https://every.to/napkin-math/can-the-truly-moral-billionaire-please-stand-up
8. "Previous eras of creativity have mostly looked a bit like sculpting. A sculptor takes a block of material and carves it, slowly but surely, into shape. Nothing happens without her hand. Even when an assistant is involved, the sculptor pores over the project, because their human input is important at every point of the process. So too with writing, or programming, or painting.
This era of creativity is going to look more like gardening. A gardener doesn’t grow plants directly. Instead, she sets up the conditions for the garden to grow. She takes care of the soil, the water, and the sunlight—and lets the plants do their thing.
So too with AI. As more of our time is spent being model managers, we won’t be directly making as much creative work. That’s like pulling up a plant to help it grow. Instead, we’ll be creating optimal conditions and letting the models do their work.
There’s one difference, though. A gardener can’t directly modify her plants. She can’t change their DNA by hand. But a skilled model manager can take any output of a model—sentence, code, image, or video—and modify any part of it themselves.
So we won’t have to leave sculpting behind as a creative skill. We’ll just be able to use our chisels and hammers more judiciously—and only when it really matters."
https://every.to/chain-of-thought/capability-blindness-and-the-future-of-creativity
9. "We lose more than we win. Everything takes time. Our hopes get shattered in thousands pieces, but we remain eternally optimistic and excited, we rise to try again cause it’s not about the destination, it’s about the journey."
https://2lr.substack.com/p/clear-eyes-full-heart
10. One of the key people in the center of Silicon Valley for the last 2 decades: Sam Altman
"In the right place at the right time. Seemingly endlessly well-connected. Fast-moving and decisive. Founders backed by Altman echo such observations of the OpenAI CEO, who has become increasingly a household name since the rise of ChatGPT in late 2022 and the explosion of interest around generative AI. Altman has little time for startups these days, he told Forbes recently. But he remains at the top of cap table wish lists for the cachet and such ‘in case of emergency, break glass’ situations.
Altman’s investment portfolio appears to have been modeled off an appreciation of that approach: a bifurcated strategy of smaller, speculative bets mixed with several highly-concentrated, larger positions where he keeps much of his wealth. One can lead to the other, as was the case with Reddit, in which Altman and Hydrazine led a $50 million funding round in 2014 and Altman took a board director seat. He continued to invest in subsequent rounds for the next seven years; he and his funds now control a stake worth $580 million as of market close on April 5, though only an estimated 14% is part of Altman’s personal wealth — the rest belong to the funds’ other investors, filings indicate. (Altman’s second Hydrazine fund holds the bulk of it: $470 million in shares, close to half of the fund’s entire gross asset value, according to filings.)
Another big position is believed to be Stripe, Altman’s self-described highest-performing investment, which reached a $95 billion valuation in 2021 and more recently announced a tender offer for employees at a $65 billion valuation in February. In 2020 and 2021, as Stripe’s value soared, Altman shelled out $43 million for a Hawaii mansion, and $27 million for an upgraded San Francisco house. Guests at Altman’s 950-acre Napa ranch purchased in December 2020 have jokingly called it “the house that Stripe built,” a source with knowledge told Forbes."
“Sam is rare in that he’s a capable investor, but he’s also making bold bets,” says Reid Hoffman, the LinkedIn cofounder and former longtime OpenAI board director. “A lot of investors are fearful of failing. They invest in things that will make money, but aren’t going to be potential big public failures. Sam is very comfortable with taking the big bet.”
And it’s those investments, not $80-billion-plus valued OpenAI — in which he has consistently asserted he holds no equity — that land Altman on this year’s Forbes list of the world’s richest people for the first time."
https://archive.ph/gSBCV#selection-997.0-1015.7
11. Garry Tan is doing God’s work. San Francisco is a better place with him here. He puts money where his mouth is and works actively to improve things instead of checking out like so many other well off tech people. He is also a great investor to boot & someone I admire & like.
"Though he plays the angry guy on X, Mr. Tan said he was optimistic about the future of the city. He said he thought the fast-growing artificial intelligence industry, centered in San Francisco, would hasten the city’s revival.
He recently moved Y Combinator from Mountain View to within the city limits and just a couple of miles from its struggling downtown. He presses the founders of start-ups accepted into the Y Combinator program to live in San Francisco because he thinks proximity to one another is so essential — and because it’s a boon to the city he loves.
“This is our oil. This is our industry,” he said. “Hollywood has movies. New York has finance. San Francisco has building the technology that billions of people use.”
He thinks moderate Democrats with common-sense ideas are taking back their city, and he’s supporting centrists on the November ballot in hopes they will seize a majority of the board of supervisors."
https://archive.ph/bMzSQ#selection-1183.0-1203.198
12. I enjoyed this interview. Joules, ex-military, now business man and gentleman.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIkryJeK81k
13. This is a great interview, learning about how to manage others better and also how to manage yourself better.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHCtb80SUHQ
14. Seems to me a situation of lesser of evils, geopolitically. Vietnam over China. Or the enemy of my enemy is at least not my enemy.
"Today, countering Beijing’s regional assertiveness takes precedence for the U.S. Yet Lan’s fate shows that China and Vietnam remain at their core very similar beasts. On Thursday, more than 60 human rights and environmental rights organizations wrote a letter to Apple to highlight the Sept. 15 detention of Ngo Thi To Nhien, the executive director of the Vietnam Initiative for Energy Transition, an independent think tank focused on green energy policy—the latest in an ongoing crackdown on environmentalists.
“All these companies say they are ‘de-risking’ their supply chains by moving out of China to Vietnam,” says Phil Robertson, deputy Asia director for Human Rights Watch. “But what are they really supporting? Companies with very fancy codes of conduct are investing in a country where human rights abuses are systematic and pervasive.” Lan’s case shows that while America’s rivals have changed, Vietnam’s autocracy remains distinctly unruffled."
https://time.com/6966231/truong-my-lan-death-sentence-vietnam-corruption-business/
15. Loved this discussion on the art and science of venture capital at the seed stage.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8NkdLhkA10
16. Great overview on the tech opportunities that exist in Vietnam. As an outside observer, the signs are bullish on the country both from a global macro perspective as well as startup one.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lessons-from-new-vietnam-christopher-m-schroeder-jylwe/
17. "Do you think AI tech will stop getting better and better simply because it’s making you anxious? Hell no. No one cares about your “AI Anxiety”.
This is a train coming at full speed.
No government or anyone else can stop it or legislate it away.
Learn to use the tool so you don’t get replaced by the tool.
Most people are so far behind that they haven’t even used free tools like ChatGPT yet.
And ChatGPT just generates text.
Most aren’t even aware of AI video and audio capabilities.
Check this to see some videos that were generated by AI using a single prompt.
If you haven’t been following AI, prepare to be completely shocked and have your mind blown.
It will keep getting better and better."
https://lifemathmoney.com/will-ai-take-away-jobs-and-how-ai-will-change-the-future-of-work/
18. Jason Lemkin is the best. I always learn stuff when I listen to him. I also appreciate his directness and honesty.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYmNgzXxkWo
19. The ultimate global value investor. I've been following Jim Rogers since I was a kid.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75OIolX4r0s
20. Solid conversation on how to evaluate and analyze civilizations & society. What makes an effective society and institution?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kw74a1dPEJQ&t=11s
21. All Saas founders need to listen to this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81fWi9hk0Sw&t=1308s
22. Jeremy Giffon, a young brilliant deal master.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mt8rCc4u_Gs
23. Lots of good nuggets of wisdom here. Here are some I liked specifically.
1. "Spending an extended period of time in another country, ideally one where people don’t speak your language expands your horizons in multiple ways.
You become a traveler instead of a tourist, and you discover things you wouldn’t otherwise.
You see the difference between being on vacation somewhere and living there.
You’re forced to learn the language and get out of your comfort zone.
There’s also no itinerary- just a series of potential adventures waiting to unfold, and stories waiting to be told
But more than anything, spending an extended period of time in another country makes you see that your own is not the center of the universe. There’s a whole world of opportunities, people and experiences beyond the borders and boundaries of where you live.
2. "At some point in your life, you have to accept the reality of dreams that won’t come true. If you accept whatever it is you don’t want, but can’t change, it loses its power over you. Paradoxically, you might end up getting what you want."
3. "The more you expect from life, the more it disappoints you. The less you expect, the more it delights you. Whenever I’ve expected nothing from creative endeavors, dates, and almost every other situation in my life, I’m always pleasantly surprised. It’s better to be pleasantly surprised than unpleasantly blind sided . And one way to avoid the latter is by lowering your expectations."
https://medium.com/@skooloflife/46-reflections-on-a-life-a-half-over-367c495b1484
24. 2 of my business heroes. I love how they both carved out very unique business paths and intertwined interesting life paths.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgH0d5TWeWc
25. Must listen to interview with Sam Altman and Brad Lightcap. This is great to understand what’s happening in world of AI.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8T1O81W96Y
26. One of the most underrated and quiet VC funds and Fund of Funds around: Hummingbird. Lots of interesting insights here like Good founders reference badly. Size of fund matters & small funds rule.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmRynLYrDkA
27. Interesting discussion with ramifications for AI. Inference versus training infrastructure. Groq versus Nvidia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UneoszmxRGg
28. Europe finally waking and stepping up for Ukraine while America supplies embarrassingly falters. I hope it's not too late to properly support Ukraine against Russian invasion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZ4ZXeQ4-V0
29. "Russia has massively scaled up drone production to supply its troops on the front with as many as possible. This only highlights the importance of supplying Ukraine with more air defense systems to protect the Ukrainian military and civilians alike from Russian drone attacks."
https://kyivindependent.com/opinion-a-look-at-the-drone-arsenal-russia-uses-against-ukraine/
30. Latest from the edge of the internet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2YI_wdO_hE
31. "If we’re measuring velocity in days or weeks, it might seem obvious to directly tie a startup’s velocity to the number of hours you work each day. But startup velocity is far more than just hours worked (a nuance that many adherents to startup “hustle” culture get wrong). Velocity is not only about how hard you work, it’s about how you work.
At a fundamental level, startup velocity is a measure of a company’s sense of urgency."
https://chrisneumann.com/archives/velocity-one-metric-that-matters-most
32. PE for SMB and crushing it. Shore Capital.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeOVMp8ytr4
33. Title says it all. Investing in an age of conflict. Not the world I want but it is the one we are in.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHqYutwvOGk
34. One of the best conversations on what’s happening in the tech industry by two legendary SV investors.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4BQCaVMjg4
35. How India meets its amazing potential geo politically and economically. Future superpower.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GbsYh2kx7Y&t=1s
36. My new favorite insider conversation about Silicon Valley news and topics around.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PrcJF0dmLM&t=972s
37. "Nation-States and Non-State actors have realized that Total War or even Guerrilla War ala the GWOT is unsustainable and ineffective. Ukraine is in stalemate and terrorism is a multigenerational strategy.
What is effective, however, is attacks from the shadows. Deniability is the new stealth. For retaliation can only occur if one has proof. Else it is “unwarranted”. This is the major differentiation between what people call the 4th Generation of Warfare and the 5th Generation of Warfare. It goes militaries beyond borders and into complete deniable operations.
Now the threats are more numerous and the weapons democratized. The attacks come from everywhere. The next attack is just as likely to come from a State as it is a mischievous angry teenager.
The West is not proactive anymore, it is reactive.
The surface area of the Western Order is too large to defend from the vectors of attack. In a philosophical sense the West must decide what encapsulates the West and defend that for a chance to survive. Else it will die by Lingchi — colloquially known as death by a thousand cuts.
The West due to leadership, capability and lack of foresight has lost its grip upon the International Order. As a result we have seen the ensuing chaos over the past several years.
This isn’t just an “American” problem it is everyone…
Now that the chaos has started to spiral there is no stopping it.
Regionality of Power will enter primacy once more.
Our Global Peace has ended
And in its ashes a new World"
https://mercurial.substack.com/p/systems-disruption
38. "Cash is king. You want to give me money, I’ll take it. As long as there are no strings attached. Startups get in trouble when they draw-and-quarter themselves by selling roadmap (i.e., non-existing) features to a diverse set of customers.
That’s why you should define strategic revenue (e.g., in the first three ICP rings) vs. opportunistic revenue and then religiously enforce this rule: if it’s oportunistic revenue you have to sell what’s on the truck. Don’t even bother asking for roadmap commitments. Maybe give those sellers lower quotas in return. But don’t let them ruin your future by selling your scarcest resource, R&D capacity, for non-strategic purposes."
https://kellblog.com/2024/04/19/how-to-detect-if-your-startup-has-a-faux-focus/
39. "I had my first child at 42, and it changed my life. I became more responsible, focused, concerned about the future, and empathetic. In sum, I became a better American. Children make us better. We care for our kids, but do we love children? Somewhere along the way, we lost the script as a society. If we have the resources to address these issues — and we do: Nvidia added a quarter of a trillion to the economy in 5 minutes post-earnings — but continue to look the other way, then we have to ask: Is America worth investing in? And do we really love our children?"
https://www.profgalloway.com/war-on-the-young/
40. I always enjoy this kind of conversation. A good rundown of the big players around the world geopolitically.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEQPbokAh2o
41. "Do you think Mr. Beast himself is out there watching videos like 100 MILLION ORBEEZ IN A SWIMMING POOL?
No.
He’s a producer, not a consumer. He’s PRODUCING content, not consuming content.
As a result, the wealth of the masses ends up in his pockets.
Money flows from consumers to producers."
The Value of Unstructured Empty Time in Your Life
I have a hard time with an empty, unscheduled day. I’ve been taught to always be busy. It was how I grew up and how I built my career, working my ass off. I feel guilty when I don’t do anything.
But I always remind myself to think about Naval Ravikant’s quote "Creativity starts with an empty calendar and ends with a full one."
I keep harping on this point but it’s so important for one’s mental health and productivity.
I try to keep at least 2-3 days a week with a completely empty calendar. During these days I just chill and do whatever I feel like. Watch Netflix or videos on YouTube, read a book or surf the Internet. Maybe I’ll write or do some errands or chores. The day is totally free to do whatever I want.
The reality as an investor and business owner, I’m always thinking of my business and my investments anyways, at least in the back of your head. But I’m in the creative business so mindlessly grinding away at it is not always the best way forward. Especially when my work is about innovation and insight. It’s not a factory or manual labor job which is about straight up direct inputs and outputs.
I’m an introvert, so this solitary time is especially effective and appealing to me. But this is important for both introverts and extroverts who are in the creative business and especially entrepreneurs.
Yes, sometimes you have to grind things out and put in the hours. But remember that breakthrough ideas and insights happen in unstructured relaxing time.
This pacing is important and you should remember that it’s a marathon not a sprint.