Revenge of the Real World: Painful Implications of The Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Like many people around the world, I spent the last 2 weeks processing the ongoing war in Ukraine. After the initial shock, sadness and anger around the world; we’ve seen beyond heroic resistance by Ukrainians of all walks of life. Ukraine’s military was underestimated and has performed brilliantly against expectations of everyone, even experts in the west. No surprise, as Ukrainians are tough people, defending their homes against an unjust aggressor. Add a brilliant info/disinfo war by Ukraine, inspired leadership by Zelensky, Ukraine has rallied many in the West behind them.
Much to my surprise, the Western world galvanized by the illegal, brutal invasion has inflicted massive, unprecedented economic sanctions on the Russian economy (Latest here from Noah Smith: (https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/how-are-the-big-sanctions-hurting). Many important western companies in media, finance, oil, consumer packaged goods and technology are leaving the country. (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-corporations-that-have-pulled-out) The Russian economy and Ruble (currency) has literally become rubble. I feel for the regular people in Russia who did not start or want this war but now suffer because of Putin’s decision.
The failed initial Russian military blitzkrieg, is leading many people to prematurely conclude that the Russian army is a paper tiger,due to bad morale, corruption, terrible logistics and weak leadership. Based on 2 weeks of conflict, it is not a foregone conclusion that Russia will win in the end. I certainly hope this is the case but there is so much conflicting info coming from the frontlines. But even if Russia does win tactically in Ukraine, they will find it almost impossible to hold and occupy a country the size of Texas. A country full of partisans angry at invaders attacking their country and home. Russia has lost in the long run no matter what happens now.
Having lost face & military momentum, Putin consequently has stepped up the shelling and bombings of cities full of civilians leading a massive refugee crisis with close to 1.5M Ukrainians fleeing to other surrounding countries, another tragedy in the making. Big mistake because what we learned is that this kind of bombing does not work. They only end up uniting and angering the civilian population. We learned this in World War 2 during the German Blitz bombing in London, the Allied bombings of German cities, the US bombing of Japanese cities (not the Nukes), the bombings of Hanoi during the 2nd Vietnam War.
There are also indications that this war has not been popular among the Russian populace who have close relations with Ukraine. Russia is clearly in the wrong, having broken long established international laws and treaties not once but twice. In 2014 & now in 2022, aggressively threatening through force the sovereignty of a country of 44M, and a democracy to boot. Despite some corruption and developmental issues, it was really starting to grow & flower culturally and economically. I saw this as someone going to Ukraine regularly since 2007. Full of bright young people used to the freedom and hope of further integration with the west. This is not hyperbole.
But I think the West and America also share a small part of the fault. Not enough to justify the Russian invasion and terrible violence they have inflicted on Ukraine, as this is not how civilized countries behave (Yes, I know USA has done the same all around the world so not excusing that either, in fact it’s even more hypocritical because of the ideals we espouse). But we did not pay attention to Russia’s concerns about encroachment of western borders toward Russia since 1992. Whether we promised or not that NATO would not move toward Eastern Europe is actually irrelevant. In the Russian view, with the expansion of NATO (which is a defensive treaty btw), the west poked the bear. If you want to understand more of what in International Relations is called the Realism aka Realpolitik view, watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4 (I don’t ascribe to all of these views but he has been right alot and this talk was 7 years ago)
None of those points justify the Russian invasion of Ukraine at all. I am 110% on the side of Ukraine and believe Ukraine is in the right here. I have many personal ties, business ties and long friendships in Ukraine so admit my bias. I ended up being so emotional about this that I ended up attacking a right wing shill on Twitter for his anti-Ukraine views, stupidly starting an Internet fight that got all his trolls attacking me last week. Not something characteristic of me. A good reminder that social media is just plain bad for your mental health. Don’t start a fight on social media, it’s pointless. Although for the record, Cernovich and his live-at-home incel loser followers can F–k themselves…. (although I should note and admit, his book on personal development is actually quite good, one I found very helpful). But on the bright side, this did make me take a 1.5 week break from Twitter. Try it sometime, it is so much better for your brain.
Having said that, it seems that the West (USA) goaded the Russians and did not try to understand their perspective. Basic Diplomacy 101. Russia has been invaded by so many powers in the past, Mongols, Sweden, France, Germany (twice), so this mentality of defensibility of borders and having a big buffer zone is long ingrained in every Russian ruler’s brain. I don’t like it & think it’s crazy. Who in their right mind would ever invade Russia? But this is what Russian leaders think rightly or wrongly and we should understand this. It’s easy to be goaded into Good versus Evil especially by the western media. But these are the same people who pushed & supported flawed narratives and supported the Iraq invasions. This and other disastrous interventions and even the messed up Covid response or government overreaction.
America & the West at large are not guiltless. We are where we are because of thoughtless & short term focused policies. They led Ukraines leaders on. I recall the US Ambassador even back in January saying in a public event: “we got your back.” If so, where are the troops on the ground, where is the no fly zone? It’s not going to happen unfortunately, for fear of confronting a country with nuclear weapons. I worry many in the US Government will just treat this like a proxy war and fight it to the last Ukrainian. Yet, I will say I’m surprised that the economic sanctions being inflicted are at an unbelievable level. With even some of the Russian Central Banks holdings being confiscated. I’m not saying it’s undeserved but the repercussions to this move will be far reaching across the globe. We will see who wins in what is being called “Banks versus Tanks.” More on this here: https://doomberg.substack.com/p/on-the-cusp-of-an-economic-singularity
I hope the West wakes up and properly supports Ukraine beyond the economic sanctions, sending weapons and sharing intelligence, while at the same time not backing Russia into a corner. A nuclear power run by a sociopathic dictator btw. As much as I want to see Putin dead, hanging from the rafters or with a bullet in the head, there needs to be some offramp for Putin to step off & back down from Ukraine. There is a non-zero chance of some mistake that could lead to direct conflict between NATO & Russia which leads to dark endings for humanity.
I’m deeply concerned due to the low quality of political leadership we have in the West that we will be unable to thread the needle of supporting Ukraine until they win, without causing Russia to resort to even more escalation, whether dangerous cyberattacks on the electronic grids to even more nukes.
We have long ignored geopolitics and taken the last 70 years of globalization for granted and now this is coming to bite us all in the butt.
Now with energy prices going up, commodities of all kinds are in short supply (wheat, grain, fertilizer, even neon for semiconductors). This is the real world strikes back. All self inflicted due to stupid energy policies in EU & USA which have made us dependent on the oil of regimes hostile to our values. 30% of Germany’s energy is fulfilled by Russia. Even the US, which is supposedly energy independent, relies on some Russian natural gas, even though we have lots of supply that we have under invested in developing. In fact, we all recently learned that Russia has supported environmental movements and political parties in Europe & USA over the last decade to the tune of $70M dollars to vote to cut off natural oil and nuclear production, making them more reliant on Russian oil. “Useful idiots” indeed.
I also worry about the lack of food & fertilizer coming from Russia (Biggest exporter of grain) and Ukraine (5th largest exporter of grain) that many emerging countries in Africa and the Middle East are dependent on. (Learn more here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bq75Av59-YU & here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5G0L0Hb-iEQ). Also read this article: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/2/27/22950805/russia-ukraine-food-prices-hunger-invasion-war. There will be famine. If you think the Arab Spring was bad; this has a chance to be far worse with all the consequent political uprisings and wave of poor refugees.
And top that off, we have a global power of the USA tired, divided and weary. Also with lost credibility and legitimacy due to disastrous interventions (read Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan) that have made many people around the world and internally question the ideals of the USA. The incredibly awful intervention in Iraq particularly has made many Americans rightfully question the basis of future interventions, even with a good moral and legal basis. After several pointless conflicts this does not exactly harken confidence in our political class.
An Iron law is that “Every action has an equal and opposite reaction.” We see that in the Chinese-Russian-Indian-Iran alliance coming together before us. South Korea looks to be leaning in too or at least towards being more neutral as China is closer and the US is not seen as a reliable ally. The mass de-platforming of Russians from American tech platforms will lead to the growing trend of “Digital Decolonization” where regions like Latin America, (MENA) Middle East, North Africa, Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe and Africa start developing and building their own consumer & B2B technology platforms. Ones set to their own local needs and under control of their own governments (for better or for worse).
So Why should You care?
Well if you don’t care for the moral aspect (shame on you then frankly), you should expect prices for food and gas to go up. WAY UP. If you thought we had product shortages in 2021, it will get worse this year. In the USA the worse we may experience is higher costs at the grocery store or gas station. As crappy as that is, it’s better than famine and consequent breakdown of law and order in many emerging markets who don’t have the financial buffer to pay for the rising costs of core products we need in everyday life. It’s going to get ugly all over the world as the bottom third of the world that was barely getting ahead, really starts to fall behind. The lack of hope leads to anger and this leads to nowhere good. The global world and complex economy we all know and love is unwinding before us. Just as in Jared Diamond’s book “Collapse” but on a global level.
All of this adds to a really challenging 2022. If you thought 2020 sucked, this is gonna be far worse. Talk about another “Global Wake up Call”. Now the world will have to reap all the results of our complacency, appeasement and laziness. We will be forced to clean up the mess that’s been left behind by thoughtless policies from an arrogant, deluded, self-serving & grifter political class. We can’t kick the can down the road anymore.
Time for all of us to get back to work and start using our brains and learn to think for ourselves. Time to face the music and do the hard work of fixing this mess whether in climate, societal, geopolitics and the economy. Vote out these incompetent politicians in cities, states and countries. Start contributing more to charities and good causes. Like a broken record, be frugal and financial fit so you can help any family, friends or neighbors who need it. It will only get worse before it gets better.
In the meantime if you want to help Ukraine. This is a good site for resources on the best ways to contribute. https://how-to-help-ukraine-now.super.site/
Also some good charities to help the poor Ukrainian refugees fleeing the illegal invasion here: https://wck.org, https://help.rescue.org/donate/ukraine-acq, https://www.care.org & https://novaukraine.org.
Slayva Ukraini!
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Mar 6th, 2022
“Courage is Grace Under Pressure”--Ernest Hemingway
"To some traditional Silicon Valley investors, the sudden about-face by hedge funds validates concerns that the influx of capital going into the private markets was unsustainable. Such venture capitalists predicted it would ultimately hurt startups by pushing up prices so fast that they would have a hard time living up to their valuations once the market soured."
“One of the challenges crossover funds have is that they have to compare and contrast the future return on dollars,” said Ram Parameswaran, founder of two-year-old investment firm Octahedron Capital, which backs both public and private companies out of a single $250 million fund. “With a handful of exceptions, it’s hard to justify valuations for startups when there are better deals in the public markets.”
2. I'm very hopeful on Ukraine. If they will be left alone by Putin, this is going to be an even more amazing place, full of potential.
"Ukraine is in the same situation as many other Eastern European countries in transition. Old-fashioned streetcars rattle along streets pitted with potholes. But next to them stand the gleaming facades of new office towers. Modernity contrasts with backwardness. Rebirth and stagnation lie close together in what is still Europe’s poorest country – measured by per capita gross domestic product, it even ranks slightly behind neighboring Moldova.
But the potential is there. You can feel it, not least among young Ukrainians. They are often energetic, they want to make a difference and they want to live in a country that operates by Western standards. And they accept risks to make it happen. Some fight for democracy and the rule of law, others build businesses. By contrast, Switzerland and Germany seem self-satisfied and smug."
3. "By charting the longitudinal PQR ratio top-down and bottom-up, a sales leader can identify when a sales team will attain plan and which parts of the funnel differ in performance from quarter-to-quarter. In between these two estimates likely lies the ultimate performance of the business."
https://tomtunguz.com/longitudinal-sales-analysis
4. "Web3 is a battle over the future of the internet. Not a struggle over websites, protocols, and cables, but a battle over fundamental freedoms, income distribution, access to resources, the right to remember, and the right to be ignored or forgotten."
https://www.drorpoleg.com/hype-free-web3
5. "Monahan does have some theories, though: “I feel like the trajectory of the 2010s has been exhausted in a lot of ways. The culture-war topic no longer seems quite as interesting to people. Social media isn’t a place where you can be as creative anymore; all the angles are figured out. Younger people are less interested in things like quote-unquote cancel culture. These were kind of, like, the big pillars we used to navigate pop culture in the 2010s. And we had the rise of all these world-spanning, like, Sauron-esque tech platforms that literally have presences on every continent. People want to make things personal again.”
He thinks the new vibe shift could be the return of early-aughts indie sleaze. “American Apparel, flash photography at parties, and messy hair and messy makeup,” he riffs, plus a return to a more fragmented culture. “People going off in a lot of different directions because it doesn’t feel like there’s a coherent, singular vision for music or fashion.” He sees Substacks and podcasts as the new blogs and a move away from Silicon Valley’s interest in optimizing workflow, “which is just so anti-decadence.” Most promisingly, he predicts a return of irony."
https://www.thecut.com/2022/02/a-vibe-shift-is-coming.html
6. This is worth watching for some interesting views on global economy and geopolitics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atCXhFiveeg
7. What a surprise! This place seems like a crap place to work. #betterisworse
8. "thanks to Russia’s threats, “Kyiv’s economy has been torn to shreds. A trivial matter, perhaps, but a gratifying one.” In the absence of a full-scale attack, Mr Putin can continue to damage Ukraine with threats, cyber-attacks, perhaps the disabling of some infrastructure.
But Ms Simonyan passes over the fact that the effects on Russia’s economy have been noticeable, too, and that while Mr Putin clearly feels a need to show Russians that their neighbours will not be allowed a flourishing democracy, most of Russia sees no benefit from such a demonstration. They want what is good for them more than what is bad for the West. They do not want the perpetual prospect of war, nor the sort of state which that implies."
9. I love this. #Calmcompany
"Unlike a lot of other entrepreneurs, they weren't aggressively pursuing growth, putting in 80 hour weeks, or sacrificing their personal life. Instead, the Wakeman's prioritized living a good life first.
For them, having a business was a means to an end, and they always kept their life priorities in sight."
https://justinjackson.ca/the-good-life
10. This explains so much of the last few years. Physicals versus Virtuals.
"The first is a class that has been a part of human civilization for a really long time. These are the people who work primarily in the real, physical world. Maybe they work directly with their hands, like a carpenter, or a mechanic, or a farmer. Or maybe they are only a step away: they own or manage a business where they organize and direct employees who work with their hands, and buy or sell or move things around in the real world. Like a transport logistics company, maybe. This class necessarily works in a physical location, or they own or operate physical assets that are central to their trade.
The second class is different. It is, relatively speaking, a new civilizational innovation (at least in numbering more than a handful of people). This group is the “thinking classes” Lasch was writing about above. They don’t interact much with the physical world directly; they are handlers of knowledge. They work with information, which might be digital or analog, numerical or narrative.
They are informational middlemen. This class can therefore do their job almost entirely from a laptop, by email or a virtual Zoom meeting, and has recently realized they don’t even need to be sitting in an office cubicle while they do it."
"But the most relevant distinction between Virtuals and Physicals is that the Virtuals are now everywhere unambiguously the ruling class. In a world in which knowledge is the primary component of value-added production (or so we are told), and economic activity is increasingly defined by the digital and the abstract, they have been the overwhelming winners, accumulating financial, political, and cultural status and influence.
But the Virtual ruling class has a vulnerability that it has not yet solved. The cities in which their bodies continue to occupy mundane physical reality require a whole lot of physical infrastructure and manpower to function: electricity, sewage, food, the vital Sumatra-to-latte supply chain, etc. Ultimately, they still remain reliant on the physical world."
https://theupheaval.substack.com/p/reality-honks-back
11. "The bottom line: a democratic and “free” country has adopted authoritarian policies. They restrict and punish the beliefs of an opposition movement. This action is seen around the world. And it will incentivize individuals with alternative beliefs to seek out digital technologies to “exit” the system."
https://dougantin.com/trudeaus-policy-accelerates-the-digital-transformation
12. I think the writer is a kook. But in this case I agree with him. Klaus Schwab, Davos and WEF all represent arrogance at the highest level & are a big reason no one trusts the elites.
"Klaus Schwab has an unbelievable God complex, and he frequently reminds the reader of his apparently unlimited technocratic faculties. He routinely reveals that he believes his group of colleagues have deity-like powers, and that once they unite their overall expertise, these technocrats, once in charge of all of us, can bring about unprecedented happiness and order."
https://dossier.substack.com/p/the-great-reset-part-two-the-world
13. In light of global geopolitical mess these days. This is a pretty good overview of whats going on.
"The West, and her Allies are in decline facing off against a growing number of rising threats. From former empires China and Russia, to more modern threats: Corporations, Terrorism, and Systemic Collapse. The West needs to accept they are now in a multi-polar order to prevent unnecessary conflict."
https://mercurial.substack.com/p/all-quiet-across-the-global-front
14. Wake up call in Europe. Sadly shows appeasement never works in the long run. You eventually have to fight the bully.
"Risks looming of the biggest war in Europe since WW2 is coming - bad for Europe. Putin will be drawing the second Iron Curtain across Europe. The Post Cold War Peace Dividend just ended. We are all going to have to spend a lot more on defence."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/recognition-of-dprlpr-sends-ominous
15. "The new escalation is simply to turn off the power, GPS and the internet. But, not for long. These mechanisms are needed to spread the news but their availability can become sporadic. All this can be done by China and Russia with almost unlimited plausible deniability.
When electrons are weapons, wars become invisible and don’t need to be declared.
Events happen and nobody quite connects the dots or can determine exactly who did it. Electrons can start fires, set off explosions, jam signals. That’s also why explosions in space have to be taken seriously. They can disrupt the core of modern economies."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/escalation-electrons-are-the-new
16. "Fast forward to 2022. If you’ve been on Twitter in the last week, you know the bird app is obsessing over Russia, Canada truckers and the implied potential for more protests/war. This represents the actual value of crypto which is bigger than a long-term store of value against money printing.
To get to a point where you’re in the top 0.01% in anything you have to dial in everything. Therefore, assume competence over a random opinion on a short clip from Twitter."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/canada-russia-and-quarter-squat-trolling
17. This is the big question. I'm skeptical of economic sanctions as they have not really worked in the past except for hurting the regular people. The elites tend to get away with stuff thru western enablers (corporates, politicians, bankers and lawyers who help them skirt these).
But this step by Putin seems to have galvanized much of EU and USA (seems is word) so maybe it will work this time.
18. "Unfortunately, we must also admit the same analysis holds true for gold, a conclusion that runs opposite to our previous thinking on the topic. However effective gold might be as a store of value, if the only available functions during a time of personal crisis are to facilitate bartering or fleeing, it isn’t money. Gold bugs and crypto advocates alike should be aghast at what Trudeau has done and at what those in the US Treasury undoubtedly have in store for Americans.
And therein lies the critical conundrum: alternative forms of money require a benign government to allow for their proliferation, but a benign government negates the need for alternative forms of money. This is a political problem, and no amount of Bitcoin or Gold Eagles will help when the political eye turns against you. Money is what the government says it is, and we just got a glimpse that our views – political, cultural…personal – form a relevant condition to being allowed to spend it."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/what-canada-means-for-crypto
19. Man, I so hope this really happened.
https://www.boredpanda.com/bad-manager-messes-with-the-wrong-employee
20. This is so well said and totally agree with this. #standwithukraine
"Ukraine needs help. Not just salvation from war. I met so many beautiful people trying to build things and help their country. Extract it from all the suffering that happened because of soviet russia. Right now it seems like people in the US only care about Ukraine as rage-bait for klout points on Twitter. And I imagine for most people it's hard to see Ukranians as people because every country in the world has now politicized their lives.
Then maybe you could see that Ukraine is more than just some poor country russia is threatening to invade. It is full of beautiful people trying to create beautiful things in very adverse circumstances."
https://amateurgods.substack.com/p/i-went-to-ukraine-during-an-impending
21. Amazing that anyone with half a brain actually believes this Russian media garbage… #StandwithUkraine
22. I tend to prefer neutral country sources of media these days. Cogent conversation on Russian invasion of Ukraine. (it is an invasion for the record)
"Twice already, Russian allies – the Libyan General Khalifa Haftar and the Armenian army – have suffered stinging defeats at the hands of technologically well-equipped opponents. In both cases, drones, Turkish support and an intricately networked style of warfare made the difference.
Russia’s military leadership is likely to be fearful of a similar scenario arising in Ukraine. Thanks to technological progress and support from the West, Ukraine is becoming a more serious potential adversary. Thus, now might be the last point in time that Russia could secure its military superiority.
However, a closer look reveals a compelling argument against this: Russia would be violating one of its own most basic principles of combat – that of «maskirovka,» the art of deceiving the enemy.
This is the great strength of the Russian army. No one on the outside is supposed to know the exact intent, whether at the very top of the strategic level or at the tactical level in the field.
This time, the Kremlin has deployed its troops in such an obvious manner that a retreat is almost more in line with the principle of maskirovka than an attack. Thus, the deployment itself would be the deception – and the withdrawal the surprise."
https://www.nzz.ch/english/russian-troops-at-ukraines-borders-may-be-a-tactical-maneuver-ld.1670528
23. "I see the end of $ hegemony on the horizon. I think our enemies are actively trying to pursue an agenda that will accelerate the demise of the US$ as the unilateral reserve currency and help foster in the end of American dominance in the global arena. As more countries are able to purchase commodities, particularly in oil, in their own currencies and settle transactions in a neutral reserve asset (like gold now, maybe bitcoin later), we will start to see currencies trade more on a current account deficit or surplus basis.
The US, with its massive deficits, will see the $ weaken in order to over time improve America’s competitive position globally in order to run more balance trade account. I believe this weak $ trade is the structural trade to embrace for the coming next several years and I anticipate being short US$ for years to come."
https://3circleinvestments.substack.com/p/russian-roulette-is-not-our-favorite
24. Food for thought. I'm really torn on this investment opportunity. I will probably not do so though.
https://mailchi.mp/f89749b7a898/i-am-buying-russian-stocks-here-is-why?e=123a1c25c4
25. "There was nothing that Europeans could have done about the Russian government’s decision to impose severe costs on its civilian population for the sake of maintaining its own flexibility. But Europeans can and should be blamed for becoming even more reliant on Russian fossil fuel exports since the 2014 invasion of Ukraine.
They wasted nearly a decade when they could have been greening their economies and also increasing the security of their own neighborhood. Ukrainians—and others—will now have to live with the consequences."
https://theovershoot.co/p/russia-was-prepared-to-withstand
26. For anyone who thinks it will be an easy conquest in Ukraine by Russia, watch this video. Ukrainians are tough people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xml90IvQJ0
27. "I am not anti-sanctions. I am anti-only-sanctions. As I like to say, all tools of statecraft should always be used against all adversaries. There is an acronym, DIME, which stands for diplomacy, intelligence, military, and economics. None is in its own sufficient, but all are always necessary. And if you want quick results, only military could provide it. The other three take years to bear fruit.
I’ve been thinking about what the United States is not doing against Russia other than sanctions and military deterrence through NATO. There is a lot we are not doing. Let me put it this way. We are not doing anything else other than sanctions and NATO deterrence!"
https://shaykhatiri.substack.com/p/political-warfare-gone-but-not-forgotten
28. The world has changed for the worst in my opinion. China-Russia lined up against USA-EU. The new Gray war has begun.
"So, what does Xi get out of chaos? A distracted U.S. may be a net positive given the tenor and trajectory of recent Sino-U.S. relations. “If there is a major war in Europe … it still will steal a lot of oxygen in any war room,” says Alexander Gabuev, chair of the Russia in the Asia-Pacific Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center. “And that means that there will be diversion from the China challenge.”
But the irony is, of course, that by tacitly backing Putin, Xi has all but confirmed Western hawks’ greatest fears about an authoritarian arc stretching from St. Petersburg to Shanghai, harking back to the Sino-Soviet alliance of the 1950s. Stronger Beijing-Moscow ties, after all, simply provide democratic rivals a rallying point."
https://time.com/6150027/china-russia-ukraine-xi-jinping-putin
29. Really great wide ranging discussion here. Worth a read.
"There's a lesson here: A successful society rests on a broad foundation of human capital; it does not place all its hopes on a thin sliver of genius. I see too many people in Silicon Valley -- both liberals and conservatives -- tacitly accept the notion that only a few people have real potential. And maybe that's because venture-funded software is such a winner-take-all market. I don't know. But that's not the attitude that will bring this country a broad industrial renaissance or social revitalization.
this was something that Genghis never imagined. He was born into a zero-sum world, where the best way to get rich was to seize land and privileges from others. He won that zero-sum game, probably more brilliantly and completely than anyone before or since. But in the end he was playing the wrong game. We were not born into this world to fight over scraps until we die. We were born into this world to remake it so that we don't have to fight over scraps."
https://www.strangeloopcanon.com/p/interview-noah-smith
30. We should be prepared for this in the US, Canada & EU. It's clear Putin will stop at nothing & frankly neither should we.
It's not deterrence if they know we won't do anything.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-may-be-primied-to-hack-americas-infrastructure-182256545.html
31. I hope he is right. Definitely can say that the “Will” of Ukrainian army is strong and getting stronger because they are fighting for their homes and families and country. Not sure you can say the same for Russian and Belarussian troops.
#SlavaUkraini
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1497035826139738125
32. "Whether or not Putin declares any additional pieces of Ukraine to be part of the Russian Federation, the norm that kept the peace since World War 2 — the idea that great powers are guarantors of the inviolability of weaker countries’ borders — is no longer a universal norm. And the invasion also shows that although America can presumably still defend its treaty allies, it does not have the power to prevent other great powers from having their way with weaker countries within their spheres of influence.
The law of the jungle has returned, and the strong will dominate the weak if they see fit.
This will have several ripple effects. First, it will dramatically increase the incentives for nuclear proliferation — recall that Ukraine gave up its nukes in 1994 in return for a (worthless) guarantee of security from the Russian Federation. Countries whose territory is menaced by powerful neighbors — Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and so on — will now be thinking very hard about whether to get nukes of their own.
It will also push countries toward great-power alliance blocs, as in the Cold War (when even most of the so-called “non-aligned” countries really chose sides)."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/a-moment-of-clarity
33. I wish I had a fraction of this lady's guts. So impressive. #StandwithUkraine
34. Putin is a war criminal.
"Putin is now, at minimum, a pariah condemned by leaders across the world.
Putin may now also qualify as a war criminal, according to the Geneva Conventions of 1949. War crimes include willful killing and extensive destruction of property “not justified by military necessity and carried out unlawfully and wantonly.”
"Holding Ukraine, given its vast size and population, will be a challenge militarily and politically. Russia has the largest land army in Europe, but it would need to send in many more troops than it already has to occupy the entire country, which is roughly the size of Texas.
The Ukrainian government has called up reservists and promised weapons to civilians to form a public resistance force. They could create an insurgency challenging Russian control of part or all of Ukraine, experts predict."
35. Great summary of many facets of the ongoing crisis & illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine and the many economic effects. As I said before, do not fool yourself that Putin will stop here. Ukraine is on the frontlines of liberal democracy.
https://kyla.substack.com/p/update-on-russia-and-ukraine
36. "Public markets synthesize billions of signals every second and distill these bits and emotions into an indifferent number that points to a direction. Private markets take longer to reflect reality, because private ownership changes hands less often, and out of view. But private markets inevitably come in line, and just like the tail of a whip, the smaller market can deliver greater pain."
https://www.profgalloway.com/down-round
37. "With so many miners flocking to the United States, some policymakers are concerned that electricity grids in American crypto mining towns could suffer from the fate of places like Kazakhstan. The US generates more electricity than any other country in the world, save for China, but the power is divided between grids.
That means a shortage in one state cannot easily be offset by a surplus in another. In Texas, which has attracted the most attention from crypto miners, the industry is expected to account for about 6% of the expected peak electricity demand. Yet, Texas is also the state where a miscalculation in peak demand last February resulted in the largest and longest blackout in the state’s history."
38. "We could never have imagined a scenario in which the US would continue to impede domestic development of critical energy projects on the eve of the most serious conflict in Europe since the end of World War II. But here we are. Energy is at the core of our flexibility to respond in a meaningful manner. Reports out of Europe indicate significant division among NATO allies as to the severity of the sanctions that should be imposed on Putin. No wonder.
We are left with a simple choice in the US: get serious about our energy policy and preserve our place in the geopolitical order or be forced to stop play-acting as a superpower. The laws of physics make our cards transparent to our political enemies, and it’s all too easy for them to call our bluff when they know in advance what we’re holding."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/its-time-to-get-serious-about-energy
Power of Obliquity: Having the Right End Goals
The definition of Obliquity is an indirect approach.
I admit I read and listened to many of the Manosphere guys. The so-called Pick Up Artists (PUAs). Their goal and only goal is to get girls. It’s fascinating And It’s just plain dumb. They get it absolutely wrong. The real goal is to be interesting, fit and build enough personal value that girls will be interested in you. I loved reading “the Game” but I was a dumb kid at that time. I’ve learned some stuff since then.
It's the same with the goal of getting rich and having lots of money. The goal is not the money. The goal is freedom, learning a lot and meeting great people. And being able to use money to get more time. Also Having resources to give to causes, people and business you care about.
The Journey is destination. What’s the point of being rich if you did not enjoy getting there or worse traded all your time, family and health to get there. Or for me even worse, these people now have the time and money but are so plain boring no one wants to hang out with them. Trust me, I live in Silicon Valley. Nothing worse than a untraveled, semi-austistic introvert nerd with lots of money but no social skills.
There are so many (multitudes of) wealthier people in the world but I would never trade my life with theirs regardless of their resources. I swear the only billionaire who seems to be having fun is Richard Branson or Larry Ellison. Well, maybe Jeff Bezos post-divorce. The others, not so much.
I travel wherever I want & get to spend time in some of my favorite places in the world (Kyiv, Tbilisi, Vancouver, Lisbon, Tokyo, Mexico & Taiwan among other awesome places). I get to hang out and only do business with people I want. I control my own schedule and have time to read and write. I get to spend time with my amazing kid. I buy whatever books I want and have lots of cool weapons. I get to pursue fun hobbies like tactical shooting and martial arts. I work in venture capital and startups where I get to meet & invest in some of the smartest driven people in the world. How bloody lucky am I? But I also spent 20+ years of hard work and learning from screw ups to get here. Lots of deliberate action, design and crafting of my life. I want to live my best life. I plan on being better and making every year better than the last one.
Obliquity and having the right goals is key.
If you want to meet girls, have fun hobbies, travel, be an interesting, physically fit, ambitious person with passions and a different perspective in the world. If you want to make money, focus on solving a real problem for as many people as possible. Quoting game winning football coach Bill Walsh, if you focus on the basics, “the score takes care itself.”
New Year Habit: Doing This One Thing Every Day Guarantees A Better Life
So What is it? Always do at least 1 Hard thing every day. Something you don’t want to do but you know is good for you. This is a Hat tip and version of the brilliant Luca Dellanna’s “Do one thing every day that builds self respect.” Self respect is key to happiness and accomplishment, it helps you in making the right decision and taking the right steps in your life.
Think about the holidays whether Summer, Thanksgiving, Christmas/Winter break. You literally do nothing but eat, shop, chill and watch Netflix. It’s fun for a few days, even a week. After a week, or even two, you feel like crap mentally. You feel aimless and groggy. It’s no different than eating junk food like chips, McDonalds, soda pop. Feels great while you are doing it, but you certainly suffer afterwards.
People are “Mission Seeking Missiles” as Caleb Jones once remarked. This is why I see many successful founders who sell their companies for massive amounts of money. After a few weeks or months on the beach, they jump right back into the scene. Either investing in other founders and usually starting another company. Another example, think about the super rich kids who have more resources than they can spend, who can do anything or go anywhere. Yet, after eating, doing, traveling and indulging themselves continuously, they eventually become miserable and listless. It’s because they have no mission or goal in life. Their life is meaningless despite being full of pleasure. Pleasure fades over time.
I’m a big believer in rest ethic and having fun. Otherwise what’s the point in life? But as in life, too much of a good thing turns into a bad thing. There is actually a scientific term for this. LD50. This is the amount of a material, given all at once, which causes the death of 50% (one half) of a group of test animals. So basically all things in excess become toxic. For example, having way too many vitamins or too much water can turn toxic to your body, even though at small doses it’s very good for you.
So the point: do that one hard thing every day. Make your bed, or go to the gym and do that extra set of reps, have that hard conversation with family, friend or employee you are putting off but need to do, write and post that blog, do that podcast, make that sales call you have been dreading.
If you do this every day consistently, your life will absolutely get better. Or you will feel it does at least. It’s working well for me so far.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Feb 27th, 2022
“The best revenge is massive success” –Frank Sinatra
"If Russia becomes sympathetic to the bitcoin and crypto industry, including putting the digital currency on their balance sheet or mining with state resources, it will force the hand of the United States. There is a global competition underway that has a decentralized, open system at the heart of it. Anyone can plug into the system. The game theory is that no one wants to start the cascade, but once your adversary does it, you are forced to adopt the technology or risk being left behind."
https://pomp.substack.com/p/russia-is-playing-geopolitical-chess
2. I thought Web3 made you un-cancellable. I guess not. More on the ENS drama.
https://www.platformer.news/p/the-man-who-got-fired-by-his-dao
3. I am very glad I am not in the Accelerator business anymore.
"In many ways, this is the inverse strategy of late-stage juggernaut Tiger Global. Tiger recently raised $11B dollars and tries to get into the top 10% of late stage companies. Y Combinator appears to be going for 10% of the seed stage.
As even further evidence of the value of the startup index fund approach, research from AngelList found that “at the seed stage, investors would increase their expected return by broadly indexing into every credible deal.” The bet that Y Combinator is making is that they can be the filtering mechanism by which “every credible deal” is determined.
This dual pincer strategy of being squeezed from the bottom by Y Combinator and from the top by Tiger made every single investor I talked to for this piece incredibly nervous."
"Y Combinator will continue to do YC things. Its network effects are going to chug along for a very, very long time. It is unlikely that any accelerator will truly seize the top spot from YC. However, Y Combinator has grown so large that there is certainly space for little kingdoms to be built in its periphery."
https://every.to/napkin-math/is-yc-the-monopoly-it-thinks-it-is
4. This is crazy stuff. So many grifters out there (especially web3)
"So what happened? To be blunt, it appears the entire ENS community just got tricked into abruptly firing one of their top contributors and giving significant control over a massive sum of money to an affinity scammer and his friends.
How can we prevent social media mobs from turning into de facto social engineering hacks of protocols?"
https://indianbronson.substack.com/p/jackson-dame-once-a-conservative
5. "What Suarez has recognized, and what NYC’s budget is starting to realize, is that cities are just like the Starbucks. They’re just like the television show. They’re a product.
More specifically, they are a subscription service. The subscription is your rent + municipal taxes, the recurring revenue which governments rely on to provide wages. Rent depends on the service, too; new real estate developments need government. Divorced from requirements to physically be anywhere in particular, remote workers won’t actually all buy acreages, satellite internet and hunker down like frontiersmen."
https://indianbronson.substack.com/p/decentralize-to-exit
6. You should not underestimate the Ukrainians in this crisis. They are tough people whom I admire.
7. "Regardless of one’s view on the stock, the rare earth element story is worth watching, and MP’s success or failure will have ramifications that extend well beyond the stock price. The combination of national security interests, green energy applications, and the need for domestic onshoring of critical supply chain nodes are aligning in MP’s favor. Failure would be a sobering indictment on the ability of the US to retake control over its own economic destiny."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/not-a-rare-to-spare
8. This is pretty much the nuttiest thing I've seen in a while. Stealing $4.5B.
https://trungphan.substack.com/p/8-thoughts-on-the-45b-bitcoin-heist
9. Another data point showing how important Ukraine is in the bigger scheme of things. We're all interconnected. So anyone who says this crisis does not affect you is an idiot. Besides the moral, geopolitical issues this raises, it has direct effect on the economy thru the food that you eat & the electronics that you use.
"According to one power chip design startup executive, unrest in Ukraine has caused rare gas prices to increase and could cause supply issues. Fluorine is another gas that has a large supply from that part of the world and could be affected, the executive added."
10. Totally random but interesting nuggets from history. Spanish conquest planned for China in the 16th century.
https://mobile.twitter.com/evohopp/status/1492417326486011906
11. Surprised this movie did not make it to USA. Alatriste: an action packed movie taking place during the 30 Years War as the Spanish empire began its decline in 17th century. These Spaniards in the tercios were tough men.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SX-y87nmZnc
12. "The power to print money also gives states another kind of power: It enables them to maximize their productivity. By increasing the money supply, they can pull more people on the margins of the economy into the productive process. But this comes at the cost of the scarcity of money and, because it puts the newly minted money directly into the pockets of the less-powerful, tends to decrease the power of those who have already accumulated a lot of money.
Hence, artificial constraints of the money supply, like the gold standard, are often associated with extremely conservative politics. Constraining the money supply hurts productivity, but it preserves social hierarchies.
This is where the more benign hopes of transcending nation-states mix with the darker fantasies of so-called bitcoin maximalists. On the one hand, a meaningful alternative to national currencies could allow people in abusive regimes not to rely on their governments' worthless “promises.” On the other hand, a mechanistically fixed supply of money could put an unequal social hierarchy beyond the reach of democratic power, as the gold standard once did."
https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2020/10/17/cryptocurrency-is-just-a-minor-threat-to-the-state
13. "Unfortunately, it’s not clear the US actually recognizes yet that it’s under assault, judging by many of its own foolish decisions which only seem to be accelerating us down the path toward Russia/China’s preferred outcome.
The Putin/Xi Bromance is attempting to create a New World Order right before our eyes and the heart of their focus is the elimination of the United State as a hegemonic state. As I mentioned in my post earlier in the week, “Something is Brewing,” I was starting to sniff out something large happening under the hood in markets over the last couple of weeks as Gold, Oil and Bitcoin prices had been rallying aggressively while USTs were selling off and I couldn’t help but think all of this was connected.
This week’s pricing action only exacerbated those trends and has confirmed my belief that what is actually going on here is a speculative attack by Russia/China against the US$ to force the US into major strategic decisions that are likely going to force it to further retreat from global affairs and probably lose the $ as the global reserve currency."
https://3circleinvestments.substack.com/p/russia-isnt-attacking-ukraine-they
14. Good discussion on how to value sales pipeline opportunities.
15. Hope this assessment below is right & things calm down in Ukraine. But truth is the West has long been in a gray war with both China and Russia.
16. Impressive portfolio but seems like a nightmare to work at. Wall Street turned Big SV player: Coatue.
"Yet, as it has grown, Coatue has seemed to lose none of its nimbleness. On the contrary, increased size appears to have bred greater agility, not less. An organization that began life as a long-short hedge fund has spent much of the last decade spinning up new investing practices. Most notably, that has occurred in the private markets with a now-thriving growth stage strategy alongside carve-outs in fintech, climate tech, and beyond. Not all of its experiments have succeeded—a high-profile internal investment in a new quant strategy flamed out spectacularly. But the fact that a firm of Coatue's scale is willing to move, to experiment, to try, is the core of what makes Coatue special.
Another strange juxtaposition is the firm's clearest vulnerability. While Coatue has charmed entrepreneurs with its fast decision-making, friendly terms, and impressive data science capabilities, it may have done so while neglecting its internal culture. To an unusual extent, sources I spoke with highlighted the firm's high churn, aggressive atmosphere, and corrosive managerial practices. All those who shared their experiences — a group that included former employees, co-investors, and portfolio founders — asked to remain anonymous. In one case, that was explicitly motivated by fear of reprisal. "Coatue can have some vengeance," a former employee said."
https://www.readthegeneralist.com/briefing/coatue
17. "We know the following: 1) inflation is higher than the interest rate that rich people pay; 2) we know that more restrictions are coming - see Canada - which means your account could be locked; 3) we know that the 94% of crypto buyers are the younger generation and the boomers currently control 53% of the wealth and 4) we know that governments are printing tons of money with no way to repay it and you don’t even get to vote on it!"
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/how-your-future-is-being-stolen-from
18. I have deep admiration for Ukraine & its stoic people in the face of this existential threat.
“I think Putin himself knows that the stakes are really high,” Natia Seskuria, a fellow at the UK think tank Royal United Services Institute, told Kirby and Guyer. “That’s why I think a full-scale invasion is a riskier option for Moscow in terms of potential political and economic causes — but also due to the number of casualties. Because if we compare Ukraine in 2014 to the Ukrainian army and its capabilities right now, they are much more capable.
Still, the US and NATO allies have transferred “lethal security assistance” to Ukraine in recent months, including ammunition, Stinger missiles, and Humvee military transports. The US has also facilitated the third-party transfer of US-made weapons — initially sold to nations such as Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania — to Ukraine for use against a Russian invasion. And while Ukraine’s military can’t match that of Russia in sheer scale, Ukrainian ground forces are better trained and better prepared than they were in 2014, with some soldiers having years of experience resisting Russian incursions.”
https://www.vox.com/2022/2/13/22931792/russia-ukraine-invasion-zelensky-preparing-for-conflict
19. "Even amid the growing geopolitical instability, Achin is announcing the new ventures he’s been working on since his resignation from DataRobot, the $6 billion valuation company he cofounded in 2012. A self-professed micromanager, Achin plans to be neck-deep in each project.
He is serving as a lead investor for Cortical Ventures, his new $50 million venture fund, and as CEO of two seed-stage AI companies: NeoCybernetica, which raised $30 million, and hOS, which is backed by $12.8 million in deals both led by NEA, the top VC firm shareholder in DataRobot.
While Achin says both startups will likely come to be headquartered in Boston, the majority of current employees—including both chief technology officers—are based in Ukraine, the continuation of a bet he made while at DataRobot to look abroad for technical talent instead of relying so heavily on American engineers."
20. "But nevertheless, we have a duty to the world to be smarter than our instincts. The 2000s are over (and now the 2010s are over too), and many of the truisms that we learned as young people are not nearly so universal as they seemed at the time.
We need to leave those decades in the past where they belong — to learn deep principles from those historical episodes, rather than spending the rest of our lives in knee-jerk reactions against anything that superficially resembles the policies of yesteryear. The future is here; we’re standing in it now."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/last-war-brain
21. Kaboom! These guys are some of the best investors and operators I know and have worked with. BTV!
No surprise their 2nd fund is massively oversubscribed and at this size.
Not easy in VC which shows how good they are.
22. Net net: the USA needs to wake the F-- up here geopolitically.
"Will there be a war in Ukraine? What’s the definition of war? Is it only when troops start firing? Is it about psychological warfare? Is it about creating conditions where there is no need to fight? Yes, we are in a war. It is global in reach. But, the outcome of this war may be a world where the gangs better understand who has what and where they have it.
Gang warfare can then go back to the usual stuff. Ukraine will have served its purpose as a hostage in the negotiation. Russia and China will be better able to sleep at night. The US will continue to think it can beat anybody else under any circumstances and continue to be preoccupied with domestic issues. In that scenario, the markets go up."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/superpower-gangsters
23. Interesting perspective here that I think makes sense.
"But then there is Ukraine, which has 450,000 active-duty servicemen, more than all NATO forces east of the Rhine combined. If properly armed, and backed up by Anglo-American air and sea power, they could be formidable, and consequently, very valuable.
We need to be realistic. Nuclear deterrence is dead. During the Cold War, we were able to deter a Warsaw Pact invasion of West Germany by threatening nuclear war if they tried it. But no one believes that the United States would do anything like that today. If Russia moves into the Baltic States or even Poland, the United States is not about the push the thermonuclear-war button, and Putin knows that.
Consequently, the only way to be able to deter war is to be strong enough to defeat a conventional attack by non-nuclear means. That requires an army."
https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/02/nato-needs-ukraine
24. Still way too early to call this.
"For me, the date to signal relief is early April and the annual Russian military conscription cycle. After that date, new recruits will need retraining, which will stall the level of military preparedness. So this high risk scenario still lasts a couple of months yet, pending some major, defining resolution.
And the core issue here is still is has Putin won anything here? Struggle to see him being a net winner, actually he looks like a net loser: a) Ukrainian sovereignty has been re-affirmed/strengthened, with the nation rallying behind the cause, not panicking and showing real resolve to stand up for itself.
b) Ukraine has been better armed as a result - better able to defend itself.
c) Russian has lost the PR war, look at opinion polls now in the West, showing increased support for Ukraine, Russia seen as the malign actor, and more willingness there to support Ukraine and pushback on Russia. Therein interestingly I was listening to a former US Ambassador wax that DC now views Russia, not China, as the main near term threat.
d) And NATO has rallied to the cause, and it now has a new vision and vigour, with the biggest perceived threat now seen as coming from Russia.
e) Russia is seen as an unreliable energy partner, and the West will accelerate its energy diversification away from Russia - sure it won’t happen next week, but it will accelerate over the medium term."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/ukraine-bye-bye-vlad
25. Trudeau is an unserious clown & an actor pretending to lead like so many other politicians in the west these days.
"By positioning the protestors as “those who fly racist flags” – as a fringe minority with unacceptable views – Trudeau committed a fatal error: he left himself no face-saving exitfrom the imminent and predictable crisis that would befall him. No respectable politician can strike a deal with such undesirables after libeling them in the way that he did. The only path left was to crush them.
Amateur hour, indeed."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/just-watch-me
26. This was a damn good tv ad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BH5-rSxilxo
27. Spot on for startup founders.
"In my experience, desperation is the single greatest advantage you have as a startup. It takes you down to the lowest level of detail.3 Desperation inspires creativity and intense focus. It is an essential ingredient to building great products and services.
So, the next time you feel desperate, lean in. Embrace it. Use it as the fuel to create the next founding moment4 for your company.
And the next time someone tries to tell you to do something because a big company does it, be suspicious."
https://rkg.blog/desperation-induced-focus.php
28. The future of domestic insurgencies?
https://mercurial.substack.com/p/convoy-conflict
29. "Ever since, I’ve tried to never lose sight of the power of ownership, of having “skin in the game.”
I made this idea a key filter in my investment philosophy. I want to invest alongside people who have a sizable equity ownership in the business. The first thing I do when I look at a business is pull up the proxy. If there are no significant shareholders among the executives and directors, it’s an easy pass. I go on to the next name.
Does it mean I will miss out on great investments run by hired hands with very little skin in the game? Of course. A good investment filter makes the investable universe manageable and is absolutely essential for managing your time and attention. Filters, by design, exclude. You have to be comfortable with the idea that a lot of good ideas will slip through your nets.
A good filter should focus on things that help you find winners. You want to fish in good waters. Stocks with higher levels of insider ownership tend to outperform their peers, as backed up by various studies. In short, there’s good fishing in these pools."
https://www.woodlockhousefamilycapital.com/post/a-good-filter-for-finding-winners
30. "So if you can’t actually be a superpower that can match the US, then what’s the next best thing? Well, you can act like one — especially if you sense weakness in your enemy. Putin began amassing troops on the Ukrainian border soon after Biden — a man the Kremlin thinks is old and weak — took office.
Once that happened, he got Biden’s attention and it has never wavered since. Biden asks for meetings and calls. He expresses his willingness to talk to Putin any time and any place. That’s the most powerful politician in the world — and a traditional modern enemy — pretty much at your beck and call. That’s Russia being a world actor. That’s prestige; that’s status."
https://unherd.com/2022/02/why-the-west-fell-for-putins-bluff
31. "It seems simple enough, but CLV is still one of the most misunderstood or ignored concepts in marketing because it’s inherently a long view, and our industry has suffered from shorter and shorter term tactical thinking as we rush from campaign to campaign. To adopt CLV is ultimately to take a more strategic method of measurement because it’s considering the future, not simply tracking results of the past.
Understanding CLV will change your thinking on where it’s worth it to invest in acquiring new users, by measuring the value of existing, and where/how you acquired them. Of course you want to keep (most of) your old customers – no one wants to lose customers – but understanding which are the most valuable is what’s truly important, not just in keeping loyal customers, but finding more like them."
https://adamsinger.substack.com/p/a-brief-intro-to-clv
32. This is an incredibly good write up on how to grow your media brand whether as company or individual. Every creator should read this: it’s a great framework.
https://adamsinger.substack.com/p/a-primer-on-growing-your-media-brand
33. Very exciting new VC fund in Portugal! (biased as an advisor and very tiny LP)
34. RIP Virgil Abloh, a creative trailblazing powerhouse.
"Born the son of Ghanaian immigrants in the suburb of Rockford, Illinois, V always remained motivated by the curiosity and dreams of what he called his “17-year-old self.” As a suburban teenage aesthete, he loved hip-hop, graffiti, low and high design, and skateboarding; everything he created flowed from those obsessions.
When he went off to college, that love of design grew into a fascination with engineering, and then architecture, which he studied at the Mies van der Rohe–designed campus of the Illinois Institute of Technology in the early aughts. And then he graduated into a totally different world—Kanye's burgeoning new chapter of hip-hop, where he became a kind of prophet of the power of youth. First as Ye's creative director, then as the founder and designer of two fashion labels, Pyrex Vision and Off-White, and finally as the first Black artistic director of Louis Vuitton menswear, he patiently prodded other young artists, activists, architects, rappers, and designers to action.
Samuel Ross and Luka Sabbat, Tyler, the Creator, and Heron Preston have all acknowledged that V helped clarify their visions and make them real. He understood, as the old African American adage goes, that you lift as you climb."
https://www.gq.com/story/in-search-of-virgil-abloh
35. This is absolutely fascinating for anyone trying to understand what makes people tick and how to make better decisions (in life and in general).
https://www.gq.com/story/how-feelings-help-you-think
36. "So what’s changed might not be the involvement of the national security state in domestic politics, but that it’s now entirely explicit.
What was once covert, agencies like the CIA and MI6 no longer feel the need to disguise, and with good reason: filtered through the polarized culture war that now shapes all political discourse in the United States, the outrage about the involvement of former spies in politics depends almost entirely on which partisan side is affected in any particular case.
What was once taboo has reached a point of soft, tacit acceptance. And maybe that’s the biggest scandal of all."
https://jacobinmag.com/2022/02/spies-intelligence-officers-erik-prince-us-domestic-politics
37. Pretty horrifying discussion in this day and age. Hope rationality and peace prevails. Cursed Putin is playing a very dangerous game.
https://www.vox.com/2022/2/18/22938886/russia-ukraine-crisis-troops-military-buildup
Bad Days: Why It’s Okay to Wallow In your Pain (For A Short Time) Before You Face the Future
I admit these last few days have been really painful. And very different from in 2020. I’ve watched the Russian kleptocrat & soon to be war criminal Putin bully and launch an armed invasion of their neighbor & cousin Ukraine. A democracy of 44 million people btw and a place just starting to bloom culturally and economically. Now Ukraine is facing an unwarranted attack from the substantially larger Russian military power ( a country of 144M people) where Ukrainian cities are being shelled & innocent people terrified for their lives.This during the 21st civilized century where we are supposed to know better. All while the West condemns them with somewhat tepid sanctions but very little else. As someone with extensive personal and business ties to both Russia and Ukraine, it’s incredibly distressing watching friends and business partners pulled into a war they don’t want. I spent most of the evening trying to reach friends in Ukraine to make sure they were okay. And answering texts and emails from teams I work with. They are all scared for their families but stoic and doing what they can. Ukrainians are tough and brave people.
I am struck with sadness, shock and anger that this is happening. I feel completely helpless in face of this unfolding tragedy and crime against civilization and law. I am having issues processing all of this. I admit it put me into a very dark place. And this is due to so many harsh realizations:
The Era of Pax Americana that started in 1945 is Over: The USA despite all its resources is just tired after wasting 20 years, trillions of dollars in 2 useless conflicts in Iraq & Afghanistan. Now with a worn out populace, divided and full of venal ineffective politicians as well as a real 5th Column of Putin supporters like Tucker Carlson and some of the GOP & Left undermining a possible coherent approach to the crisis. This comment by Alexander Corte’s quote describes the USA right now well.“To be both an unreliable friend and an incompetent enemy ensures you will never be taken seriously by anyone.”
Consequently we will see a major ramp up in arms and defense spending as every country knows they can’t rely too much on allies like the USA or EU anymore (and China and Russia as well). Based on the track record of these regional powers' support, all the allied small countries will arm up. Taiwan, Poland, the Baltics, all need to become well armed spikey porcupines who will make any invader bleed badly just like our Ukrainian friends are doing. Or be swallowed up by local regional powers.
2. The Western Liberal Order is broken: For the so-called “Mother of All Sanctions” energy is being excluded because of foolish energy policy in the Europe that they are reliant on Russian natural gas and then on top of that, any idea of kicking Russia out of SWIFT system has been blocked by Putin shills like Hungary, Cyprus, Italy and GERMANY.
3. Despite widespread political and popular condemnation across the world, not much else is being done. Ukraine is left to defend herself & showing you really don’t have true allies, you just only have temporary mutual interests in this new world.
4. This is the first major land war on European soil in 30 years (last one was in 1992 in Bosnia). A major European capital city is being bombed and attacked by hostile army. It’s the 21st century and we have a major land war and one initiated by a big world power and autocracy on a smaller democracy to boot.
5. And even more sadly, this invasion is against the will of the Russian people. Despite the bravery of many protests in Russia itself against this war, the protestors are all being jailed. Most of the Russians I know want nothing to do with invading Ukraine, who they consider very close cousins. It’s like the US invading Canada today. Putting aside the geopolitical frame, It literally makes no sense to my small brain.
As per Peter Zeihan, the years of 1945 to 2020 were an anomaly in history where the US driven Global World order led to the prosperous & relatively peaceful years we were fortunate to get. Billions of people were lifted out of poverty and very few countries went to zero. But the Pandemic and its crap overall government response and now the Russian aggression in Ukraine points to us entering a multipolar world. We are entering this scary new world where "the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" as per Thucydides. Or as Noah Smith put it even more clearly. “The law of the jungle has returned, and the strong will dominate the weak if they see fit.”
This is going to be an ugly & brutal world. And all these shocks have turned into another Global Wake Up Call for me and everyone. The question is whether people will heed it. It’s time to take Personal Responsibility! And in a new world where the strong feast on the weak, it’s time to get strong both mentally and physically! This will be relevant for individuals and countries. In my mind, no one will be able to rely on first responders, you have to be your own first responder. It certainly sucks but that’s what we saw even back in 2020 with the BLM protests that turned into riots.
I ended up spending most of this Thursday in a dazed state. I ranged from crying from sadness to intense rage at Putin and his mafia government. Basically, I wallowed in the worry, pain & fear I felt for all my friends there.You have to grieve for the old world and the old “you” that’s disappeared. And I think you are allowed to do this for a short period of time. Especially for someone like me who is kind of slow. I find I need some time to really absorb and process both the painful realizations and the emotions that come with it. But once you do that, you have to go take some action, even if it's the little small things to get you back on track and out of the funk.
So I went to Church to pray for peace in Ukraine and for the safety of my many friends and colleagues. I spent time posting messages of support for Ukraine on social media (as trite as these are). I also ended up donating money to some charities doing some real good in Ukraine like Mercy Corp https://www.mercycorps.org, Nova Ukraine: https://novaukraine.org & The Return Alive Foundation: https://savelife.in.ua/en/donate.
Little steps lead to big steps on the way out.
Let’s hope Sanity and Peace Prevail. Slava Ukraini! Glory to Ukraine!
“Apocalypse Now Redux”: Lessons from the Heart of Darkness
Based on Joseph Conrad’s immortal book “The Heart of Darkness”, which shows the awful cruelty of colonialism and evil in the Congo Free State during the late 1800s.
Coppola adapts the novel to the Vietnam War movie. In all its gore, insanity and glory. A confusing and dark story just like America’s sad experience in the Vietnam War.
Captain Willard, played by a young Martin Sheen, is a CIA assassin sent to kill Colonel Kurtz, a Special Forces officer who has gone crazy in the jungle. Now thinking of himself as a God with his own private army. Along the way up the river to accomplish his mission he meets a lot of characters, misadventures, personal realizations of the war and tragedy. It's a spellbinding journey, the further up the river, the further away they are from civilization. We see a slow devolution and a growing savagery of men as they get closer to their destination.
I grew up watching this movie as a teen, and was mainly interested in the action scenes. But now as an adult, rewatching this movie, you see new things and realize the depth and detail. Similar to re-reading an old classic book. Some of the most vivid scenes and characters show up in this movie. These are some that stick out to me (Spoiler alert here if you have not seen it).
Probably one of the most famous war scenes. There is the famous mass helicopter attack by the Air Cavalry on this enemy controlled Vietnamese village set to Wagner’s “Ride of the Valkyries”. I still get pumped up by this song. That is how ingrained it has been on many of our brains.
Robert Duval plays the gung ho Air Cav commander. After he blows up a big chunk of the jungle with an air strike, he tells the story of how they bombed a hill for 12 hours. He goes on to famously state: “I love the smell of Napalm in the morning……That gasoline smell. The whole hill. It Smelled like…. Victory.” It reminds me of the old Roman Tacitus’s quote “They make a desert and call it peace.”
2. Night Bridge on the River, which was the last US Army outpost, touchpoint of the last place representative of so called civilization. A scene with absolute chaos and No one was in charge. A place where everything beyond was something of an uncontrolled frontier.
The War was “like this bridge. We build it every night, Charlie blows it up again. Just so the generals can say the roads open.” Sounds familiar, right? Kind of like the Afghanistan mess over the last 20 years?
3. As they pass the river, they run into a very well armed family of French plantation owners with their own private army. Not belonging to France anymore, but considering the place as their home as they have been settled in Indocina for 70 years. They are remnants of colonial Indochina. They are continually under siege but try to keep their legacy intact.
When questioned by the American captain on “how long can you possibly stay here?” He states that they will stay here forever. They will fight until they die as the place is their home. “This piece of earth, we keep it.” Of course, knowing history, we look at them like ghosts. Vestiges of a past that will disappear. We all know they will eventually be overrun by the Vietnamese. At the same time, I really sympathize with them. At least these French colonists are fighting for their land and their family. While the Americans are fighting for what? “For the biggest nothing in History.” It is hard to argue with that.
4. Coming to Colonel Kurtz’s kingdom and large camp of Montagnard Tribesmen. He runs into some American special forces soldiers who clearly have gone “native” and also probably crazy. Willard is surrounded by a mass of well armed men and lots of dead bodies and decapitated heads lying around. It’s a really creepy scene that shows how far humans can descend. If i am honest, as a stupid teen boy, I thought this would be the ultimate dream. Owning my own empire in the jungle. Being able to do whatever you want with no consequences. But of course, I grew up and realized you can make a pretty damn amazing life in the comfort of civilization.
5. Colonel Kurtz’s execution and slaughter by Willard with an ax set to The Doors song “This is the End.” A brutal scene, where Colonel Kurz played by Marlon Brando breathes out “The Horror. The Horror” in his last words.
Willard is looked at by the tribesman as the new king and god. It’s the moment of truth. Does he take over the kingdom or does he return to civilization? He redeems himself and humanity by bombing them all to remove the stain on civiilization (or at least he does in original version, in Redux version he just sails away).
It’s worth watching as there is a reason why it's considered a Hollywood classic. The movie (and book “Heart of Darkness” by Conrad) exemplifies to me how quickly civilization can disappear if we let it. And how formerly normal people pushed to their limits will do anything to survive. In some cases, they may even thrive in chaotic situations. The question for all of us is when push comes to shove, and the veneer of civilization and laws disappear, do we turn to our better angels of nature or do we embrace our “heart of darkness?” We may all be tested here soon.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Feb 20th, 2022
“True life is lived when tiny changes occur”--Leo Tolstoy
This is absolutely nuts that this is happening this century.
https://coffeeordie.com/ukrainian-combat-veteran
2. This is a great write up for newbies looking at facing their fears and becoming an entrepreneur. And not just because I'm quoted in it.
https://keithhayden.net/how-to-destroy-challenges-and-worries-starting-a-business
3. I've been bullish on the Eastern European startup scene for over a decade now. Amazing, overlooked region full of global minded, world beating entrepreneurs. This is just the beginning.
4. This is a very interesting path to building independence. It’s very helpful for anyone and Worth a read.
https://boundless.substack.com/p/from-quora-to-consulting-niche-a
5. Every startup founder should read this. Its pure gold these questions.
"Value creation mostly accrues in the out-years when usage, revenue, and growth compound. But be very clear – in order to capture all of the compounding value in your business, you need to start at the beginning to position for long-term durability.
Founders who win big spend more time at the beginning, earlier than you might think, on creating products and business mechanisms that follow these five durability factors and thus drive increasing returns at scale. As their companies get bigger, they get increasingly hard to overtake, and thus their value explodes."
https://www.nfx.com/post/durability-formula-will-determine-your-startups-future-value
6. Sorry but this seems like self-inflicted hell.
"The Singhs are one of India’s most-followed social media influencer families. With six YouTube channels, five individual Instagram accounts, three Facebook pages, and two accounts on MX TakaTak, they have a total social media following of over 18 million. Their YouTube videos — which offer a peek into their day-to-day life, almost like Keeping Up with the Kardashians on a budget — have been watched over 8 billion times.
Each week, the family produces 75 Reels and 35 video posts for Instagram, and 35 Shorts and 20 full-length videos for YouTube, featuring everything from short films and vlogs to dance videos. They have promotional deals with major brands and entertainment studios, even their own merchandise line.
The Singhs are at the forefront of an emerging trend on the Indian internet: family influencers."
https://restofworld.org/2022/inside-the-daily-grind-of-one-of-indias-biggest-influencer-families/
7. Really good teardown of Spotify's business model & economics. Tough biz & no wonder everyone hates the rapacious music studios.
https://thehustle.co/the-economics-of-spotify
8. "My larger point: if you see an opportunity with growing demand, and it’s a good fit for you personally, don’t ignore it just because “it’s not B2B.”
Your business doesn’t have to fit the dominant narrative to be successful; indie B2Prosumer products can be incredibly profitable."
https://justinjackson.ca/prosumers
9. An oldie but goodie. Big fan of what Ondeck is building.
"On Deck is undercovered and underappreciated relative to the strength of its business model, the frenetic pace of its progress, and the potential size of its impact."
https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/p/whats-on-deck-for-on-deck
10. Good discussion on Web 3 for those trying to understand this growing space.
https://cobie.substack.com/p/wtf-is-web3
11. "For startup founders, this time could not be more exciting, and more fraught with unforeseen risks. Capital is more available than ever, and from a widening array of sources. These sources have vastly differing contributions to make. Some make no contribution at all (other than their cash), and pitch that as a positive! The best founders will think through the implications of various financing paths, and focus on the long game. The end goal should not be to “win the deal”, but to build a great company.
A “cannonball financing” can be part of a winning strategy, but should be deployed only when a company has already built a solid foundation. Do you have product market fit? Have you demonstrated an efficient go-to-market model? Do you have a team that can scale? When these lights are turning green, you might consider using capital as a weapon to dominate your category. But if you over-capitalize prematurely, you may destroy your opportunity to build something great."
https://www.wing.vc/content/the-cannonball-effect
12. This is pretty damn disturbing but this is hybrid war and the West is NOT ready.
https://davetroy.medium.com/situation-report-things-fall-apart-part-2-1241d447b852
13. Bullish on the growing Solo Capitalist trend in VC.
"How do you become a solo investor? By definition, those in this field follow an unfurrowed path. Still, though every story is different, a few “solo investor” pipelines have emerged:
-Build an audience.
-Spin out from a fund.
-Start a company.
-Find an overlooked niche.
-Leverage a mafia."
https://www.readthegeneralist.com/briefing/solo-capitalists
14. This should be a call to action.
"Now, the lines are blurred; countries are fighting across their entire economies and every domain of warfare for advantage. Technological supremacy in consumer and enterprise products feeds directly into the great power race for air, land, sea, space and cyber.
Startup founders and engineers are increasingly recognizing their role in this fight, as well. These people are not George W. Bush-style jingoists, but they do want to support liberal democracy and make sure people on the frontlines have the best tools to do their jobs.
America today faces the greatest challenge to our competitive advantages in recent memory, with advantages eroding across all domains of warfare and in many economic sectors. Adversaries are poking ever more aggressively for weaknesses to exacerbate and exploit.
But at its heart, America’s values and influence still offers us immense soft power: an openness to new ideas, to new people, and to new opportunities. Defending our open values against the encroaching authoritarianism of antagonists like China and Russia isn’t optional. Defense tech is the next big sector for Silicon Valley if for no other reason than every other sector will rely on the United States to secure peace in the years ahead."
15. This is a good basic primer for startup founders in the Enterprise B2B Space. It takes a frigging long time (6 years for major revenue growth) and sales, sales, sales, sales.
16. Neat new Fintech fund (literally called "The Fintech Fund.)" Also shows how building an audience and community will be key differentiator for new VCs (and old ones too)
https://techcrunch.com/2022/01/27/10000-subscribers-later-this-week-in-fintech-has-a-venture-fund
17. I miss this man, Anthony Bourdain. Truly the World’s Most interesting Man.
"But his greatest accomplishment, of course, was his life itself. I mean, honestly, WHAT A GODDAMN LIFE, MAN! He lived a scant 61 years, but my god, were those years densely packed. Watching him trot around the globe week to week engendered only the warmest of envies. And, in death, Bourdain takes with him a collection of memories and experiences so immeasurable, and so vast, that they dwarf any book or TV episode he leaves behind.
It is that life, more than his work, that millions of people (myself included) seek to emulate: a life that is hungry, thirsty, curious, honest, compassionate, rowdy, horny, all of it. That life has almost certainly inspired the very hipsters that Bourdain himself openly derided, but that’s a pretty minor complaint when you think about it. He was a man of true pleasure—pleasure in food, pleasure in sex, pleasure in friendship, pleasure in love—and wanting that for yourself is a welcome sin."
https://www.gq.com/story/rip-anthony-bourdain
18. This is infuriating. Why is the USA shooting itself in foot all the time?
"The immediate consequences of the ruling are as follows. First, incremental natural gas produced in Appalachia will be stranded there, driving down prices in that region while increasing prices for the rest of the US market, which was counting on ready access to Appalachian production to meet their future needs.
Second, the decision will limit the ability of US LNG export terminals to meet global natural gas demand, further eroding our geopolitical power and emboldening our adversaries – forcing us to make unseemly alliances with despots like the Emir of Qatar.
Finally, the decision will make it even harder to attract much-needed capital for future domestic energy development projects."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/contortion-nation
19. I really hope the USA manages this Russian aggression against Ukraine better, unlike in 2014. Or frankly in most global geopolitical sphere for last 20 years. (and I voted for Biden btw).
We cannot appease bullies & we still have a good hand (for now.)
"The Biden team learned that Putin will advance his goals with “asymmetric” tactics, or military and non-military approaches that operate within a gray zone, to trip up the United States. In 2014 and onward, Russia leaked a phone call to embarrass US diplomats, spread fake news, and sowed disinformation, which culminated in unprecedented attacks on the 2016 election in the US.
It’s led Biden to grapple with “How to Stand Up to the Kremlin,” as was the title of a 2018 essay he co-authored for Foreign Affairs. He argued that the US must “impose meaningful costs on Russia when they discover evidence of its misdeeds.” He also said that, despite Russia’s belligerent tactics, “Washington needs to keep talking to Moscow,” to avoid unintended escalations of conflict."
https://www.vox.com/2022/2/7/22916942/biden-lessons-russia-2014-invasion-ukraine-crimea
20. This new YC deal will definitely make life harder for local investors in Africa and South America (or other emerging ecosystems).
Welcome to global competition Frens!
Time to step up (or become irrelevant fast)
https://restofworld.org/2022/y-combinator-change-emerging-market-investors
21. Hard not to argue with this. We are losing ground in the USA versus our peer competitors. We need to get our act together fast.
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-us-is-failing-to-compete-effectively
22. "Despite the growing warnings, the U.S. Department of Defense is inadequately prepared for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Consider the U.S. Navy, the service with the most critical role in the Indo-Pacific. The Trump administration’s plan for naval modernization, Battle Force 2045, was based on the assumption that the navy could wait until the mid-2040s to reach its optimal size.
Under President Joe Biden, even that plan has been shelved, with the navy now significantly stepping back from its long-held goal of maintaining a fleet of 355 ships. And expected cuts in next year’s defense budget will likely further shrink the size of the fleet.
Meanwhile, U.S. and allied bases in the Pacific have not been upgraded. Congress has not yet funded a badly needed air and missile defense system on Guam, which houses an air and naval base that would be on the frontlines of any conflict over Taiwan. And at bases across the region, stockpiles of precision-guided munitions are insufficient to support a prolonged conflict.
At present, the United States is on track to lose a war over Taiwan. Yet it is not too late to change course."
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2022-02-01/taiwan-cant-wait
23. "Whether an incumbent or insurgent, it is valuable to consider the extent to which a bundle is at risk, ripe for disruption or viable to grow. A good starting point is a deeper understanding on the alignment between bundled value and customer needs. To what extent does a bundle meet customers needs better than other options (as MS Office did) or provide superfluous “value” which users don’t want (as was the case with many forgettable tracks bundled into an album).
Are significant technological changes underway, as with Netflix where the internet fundamentally challenged the established value chain of how content was distributed and consumed, or are consumers expectations evolving, as with Spotify where music ownership has diminished in importance, as access has increased.
Ultimately, the extent to which your bundle is safe to expand, or ripe for disruption is personal to your product, and can change quickly. It pays to keep your eye on it."
https://julianconnor.medium.com/to-bundle-or-not-to-bundle-that-is-the-question-95092146b816
24. "I go back to the idea as to what has Putin achieved thus far from all this? Have any of his red lines been agreed upon - no. And yet by using the threat of force, we are seeing the West unify in opposition to him by agreeing a firm sanctions response, and providing more assistance to Ukraine, and surely the biggest result from all this will be accelerated energy diversification away from Russian energy/commodities.
He has shown he can mobilise thousands of troops at short notice, and use menace, but this is not dividing the West but unifying it if anything - look at those opinion polls released today showing greater public support in the West for supporting Ukraine. He has a large military force, but is he willing to use it, is the threat fo forces credible, and will the use of military force be effective if it is actually used?
We get back to the idea that the status quo, and playing for time, were not working for Putin, and he has tried to mix that up with the deployment of the military on Ukraine’s borders, but has that improved his hand, has it changed the status quo in his favour? I would argue it has not. So what does he do now, withdraw with a weakened hand/position, or double up?"
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/russia-thoughts-on-the-macron-visit
25. Everything is connected now. If you think the Ukraine crisis will not affect you, think again.
"As Ukraine is facing the threat of a renewed, possibly all-out invasion by Russia, another risk arises.
Dozens of countries, including Egypt, Yemen, Lebanon, Tunisia, Indonesia, Malaysia, and even China rely on Ukrainian harvests to feed their people.
The Middle East and Africa absorbed nearly 40% of Ukraine’s exports of corn and wheat in 2021.
Ukraine, the world’s fourth largest grain exporter, supplied 3 million tons of wheat to Egypt alone, providing 15% of the total consumption for the country of over 100 million people, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
But if Russia attacks Ukraine with more than 130,000 troops that it massed along its borders and in the occupied areas inside the country, the world may face a catastrophic interruption in food supply."
26. An amazing investor and one of the BEST global VC firms around.
“That's part of the beauty of this business. Even though you could make big mistakes, there's another at bat tomorrow, because people are starting interesting new companies,” Botha said. “So if you're willing to swallow your disappointment, buckle up, get back on the bicycle, get back on the horse, get back on your skis — whichever thing it is that you can identify with – you just try again.”
The last two years have smashed funding records and seen startup valuations soar, but Botha compared it to an open-book exam: Founders have it easy in go-go times, but when the final exam is suddenly book-closed, will they have learned enough to survive? The same goes for a new set of investors who have only had their companies marked up from round to round.
“It's easy when things are up and to the right. I haven't seen a single story, personally, that was up and to the right the whole way. And so what happens when things go bad? I worry for that,” he said."
https://www.protocol.com/sequoia-roelof-botha
27. This is a really great interview with Ric Burton & NIA guys. Worth watching every week but specifically this week.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCgwbiuuZNI
28. Interesting discussion on Russia and their geopolitical insecurity. Helps to understand the driver behind the crisis.
https://www.thelykeion.com/why-does-this-map-matter
29. Can't believe I just found this now. Interesting new show on life longevity.
Lions Led by Donkeys: “A World Undone”
World War One spelled the end of Europe as a geopolitical and economic power, and it also led to the ascendance of the United States. The main reason, in my view, was because so many of the bright young men in the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Austria, Russia, Italy were killed on the war fronts across the globe between 1914 to 1918. Estimated to the amount of 20 million dead, their lives were thrown away charging machine guns and artillery for a few yards of gain, directed by clueless old men sitting many miles away in safe and comfortable quarters.
The British in particular were remarked by the Germans that they were “Lions led by Donkeys.” Basically, the everyday frontline soldier was fierce and courageous while their generals were idiots. Or butchers in the case of the French. This comment was relevant to almost all the countries. Brave young men, let down by poor, undeserving and incompetent leadership. Awful, criminally incompetent men like Field Marshal Sir John French & General Douglas Haig of the UK, Luigi Cadorna of Italy, Conrad von Hotzendorf of Austria, John Pershing of the USA and Joseph Joffre of France who led their men to slaughter. For example, 125,000 died during the fruitless battle of the Somme. 400,000 French soldiers & 350,000 Germans died at the Battle of Verdun. Killing done at an industrial scale and frightening level.
For contrast on how big and horrific these numbers are, 214,000 Americans died in the entire US Civil War; 291,000 Americans died in World War 2; 47,000 in the Vietnam War. The US lost about 53,000 soldiers in World War 1. The numbers I listed for the Somme and Verdun were for 1 single battle. The Somme involved 3 million soldiers on all sides with 1 million men wounded or killed. (If you want to learn more, recommend “A World Undone” by GJ Meyer, one of the more readable books of the Great War).
No wonder many of the soldiers who came back home, came back disillusioned, bitter and broken both mentally and physically. Shattered bodies and shattered minds. Shocked. All the while wondering what they risked their lives for and lost friends and family over. And they were just thrown back into society with no support or safety net. Quoting actor Cilian Murphy, who stars in the excellent “Peaky Blinders”, describing the main character, war vet and gang boss Tommy Shelby, “he lost faith. Religion was just a joke. Authority was just a joke. The establishment was a joke.”
This sentiment was understandably widespread. It was probably one of the big reasons for the societal change and chaos that raged across Europe in the 1920s. Nothing is more scary than angry young men with nothing to lose. Rightfully angry at an out of touch establishment elite who used them and then tossed them aside. This is how revolutions and riots come about throughout human history.
This also reminds me a lot of what’s happening now in America. So many bright young people across the world, badly served by their leaders whether in government or business. A gerontocracy (rule by the old) at the top of the American Federal government, the crazy amount of lobbying by big business, the selling out of many politicians on both the Republican and Democratic side to various business interests foreign and domestic. All grifters to a massive degree. I mean look at House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi for example. Worth an estimated $196M while earning $223,500 for her government job. Probably one of the most successful inside traders around, who flaunts her wealth while so many American families are struggling to feed their families. So infuriating. I can’t imagine what my Iraqi and Afghanistan war veteran friends think. I admittedly feel raging anger when I see her and her equally corrupt counterparts on the Republican side. I believe this anger can be seen in the YOLO economy and the GameStop saga. Or even with the election of that supposed outsider Trump to the presidency back in 2016. At its core, it is about the regular everyday people saying “Enough is enough” and wanting to see some change.
But there is change coming, albeit in a grim way. As the saying goes, “Science advances one funeral at a time.” This is relevant for politics, business and cultural life. And as a fellow old person & Gen X, if you cannot stay flexible and mentally agile, which gets harder to do as you get older, then be prepared to step aside. Let the next generation come to the fore with their energy and new ideas. Ideas and thoughts that might be more relevant for their times.
Demographics are destiny. The Boomer generation (1946–64) in America was arguably the most impactful due to its massive size of 70.68 million people. But this is now being followed by the even bigger Millennial Generation (1981–96) of 72.2 million people & an almost as large cohort of Gen Z (1997–2012) at 67 million. (Note: Gen X 1965–80, for the record is only at 64.9 million people).
Because of this, we can fully expect massive change to come over the next 8 years in America and consequently, the rest of the world. The influence of the up and coming generation of Millennials and Gen Z’s will bring new energy & vigor, new thinking, and new morality to the world. For better or for worse.
Why Conspiracy Theorists are Usually Wrong: Because Humans Can’t stop being Humans
I love a good conspiracy theory as much as the next guy. There is something attractive about the idea that there is a group of super smart people in a room controlling the world or pulling the strings behind all the major occurrences in the world. Hollywood would not exist without these conspiracies. Ultra smart rational people want to believe in these plots and you can always tie unrelated people and actions together. How long have we been asking about who really killed JFK? Coincidences are hard to understand & explain.
Conspiracies are hard, if not impossible to pull off because they involve people. People who gossip, have crazy foibles, completely irrational and literally unable to keep secrets. Ben Franklin once said “3 people can keep a secret, if 2 of them are dead.” This is why coups and rebellions are so hard to pull off. Because it involves so many people at so many levels. Someone almost always betrays the conspiracy or there are informers who end up infiltrating it. And this is even harder in the world of the Internet and social media.
I also tend to think Americans are more than likely to buy into them than many other people. And maybe we want to believe because we are horrified at the alternative idea that there is no one in charge. And hate the idea that bad things in the world happen due to accidents and randomness.
What I learned from 2020: I don’t believe there is a crazy plot behind Covid.
Hanlon’s razor says, “Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by incompetence.” I think Covid’s breakout from China and many of the governments across the world’s gross overreaction was not a master plot. I think this is just all due to people at all levels of the power structure being human. Humans who are lazy, scared, selfish & incompetent. Most people fit this category.
Do I think there are players taking advantage of this chaos, absolutely. Do I think the USA is being targeted by China and Russia with PsyOps & disinformation war? Absolutely. Read “Wires for War” by Helberg, “The Hundred Year Marathon” by Pillsbury, “Ill Winds” by Diamond, “Putin’s World” by Stent, “Three Dangerous Men” by Jones, “The Shadow War” by Sciutto & “Rigged “ by Shimer. (Yes, I have been reading a lot about this topic.) For the record we are doing the same to them too, just not as well, even though we have long experience of this in Latin America and the Middle East.
So what’s the point? There is no global conspiracy or plot. But that doesn’t mean you can’t do anything to make your life better by managing your psychology. Read good books. Watch your media diet (ie. Ignore both Fox and CNN/MSNBC), use your brain, do your own research and learn to think critically for yourself. Be resilient. And be a prepper in case of any ensuing chaos. THIS IS THE WAY.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Feb 13th, 2022
“Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world.”-- Nelson Mandela
A very good prognosis on the state of geopolitics right now. Watch Korea, Africa & the Arctic. Everything is interconnected.
"Is it possible that we are drifting into conflict without fully understanding the multiple chessboards and multiple pieces in play? Are we being too narrowly focused on our own perspective and not seeing the world as others do, whether rightly or wrongly? Maybe this explains why the President of Ukraine is asking the US to back off.
This may be how this all ends. Imagine a world where Ukraine invites Russia in as a partner, not necessarily as a friend, but as a partner. Imagine a world where the two Koreas invite China in as a partner, not necessarily a friend, but as a partner. Would most Americans rather face a global conflagration or get back to solving the many problems of everyday life and of building a better future? Maybe there is a way to talk down the build-up? Maybe this is not about logic.
Our love of peace may outweigh our desire to have this particular fight in this particular way at this particular time. That doesn’t mean the end of competition. The superpowers will always compete. But it isn’t often they talk themselves to the brink of a nuclear exchange. When they do, ironically, emotion might work better than rationale."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/warwhere-3-fronts
2. Depressing conversation as it really highlights how the USA & many of its key institutions like the military, US Government, media & the US dollar really are declining. I hate to hear it but it’s a really strong case.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3tBmfG_1Ac
3. This seems kind of crazy that this exists.
"You see, in a place like Harardhere, many would join a private gang simply to avoid a life of militancy, poverty, and petty theft. As you can imagine, in this capitalist society of ours where cash rules everything around us, the natural evolution to undertaking piracy out of necessity was to organise amongst themselves – and make an absolute killing from it. Thus the world’s first Pirate Stock Exchange was established.
While to this day, there are no credible statistics available to confirm the number of entities listed, The Wall Street Journal reported over 70 distinct maritime operations are listed on the Harardheere Pirate Stock Exchange. Similar to the days of the Dutch East India Company, when a pirate mission is successful, the investors who bankrolled said pirate mission earns a share of the total profits."
https://www.bosshunting.com.au/hustle/pirate-stock-exchange
4. "Western countries are far bigger and richer than Russia. They can make Putin’s gamble seem unappealing and dangerous, by resisting his aggression and supporting Ukraine. For their part, Ukrainians should remember that neither Russian provocations nor Western support matter as much as their own solidarity and determination."
https://cepa.org/war-within-a-war
5. "What is Up? Up means that you’re able to do two things: 1) increase your lifestyle and 2) save a higher percentage of earnings. This is a pretty difficult task for the majority of the population
For those that understand compounding, this means that the traditional advice of saving 10% doesn’t work *and* the frugality advice that suggests never upgrading doesn’t work as well (you will become a boring and strange person over time). Autist Note: flat savings rates don’t create wealth because you should make significantly more every 3-5 years or so. If you made $100K this year and make $300K next year, that $10K from last year would represent only 3.33% of annual savings for a person making $300K (doesn’t move the needle)
Solution: The solution is always the same, which is to earn more money with a wide range of strategies: 1) multiple careers, 2) career + WiFi business and 3) ideally tons of WiFi businesses since they have infinite scale - good luck checking out 1,000 customers in 60 seconds with a Brick and Mortar!
Instead an elite person has the following characteristics: 1) happy with his/her life; 2) in shape physically - top 10% at minimum for their age bracket determined by lifting strength and 3) *passive* income of $15,000 US Trash Token per month."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/are-you-on-track-to-be-elite-find
6. This is not good.
"The US is still the largest producer of oil and gas in the world, making its energy policy – and the desire of foreign powers to influence it – no less important than it was then. Longtime readers of Doomberg will know we have been critical of America’s energy strategy and have spilled much ink describing the predictable consequences of its obvious blunders. By closing existing nuclear power plants, opposing the development of reliable fossil fuels at virtually every opportunity, attacking existing energy infrastructure choke points, and constraining capital for future development, the behavior seems virtually indistinguishable from what we would be doing if an adversarial foreign power were in charge of our affairs.
With demand for oil and gas already surpassing pre-Covid levels and set to rip higher once the global economy fully reopens, the stage is set for an epic blowoff top in energy prices. The gap between suppressed supply and unquenchable demand could stretch to unthinkable levels, just as a sizable wedge of the world’s population sits on the cusp of a well-known and substantial step-up in demand."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/shooting-oil-in-a-barrel
7. "For me, when the dust settles, and the market comes back — and it will come back, no doubt — here’s my the big takeaway in my mind: Companies big and small will be examined through the lens of growth narratives driven by product diversity. It’s no longer good enough to just handle online storage, or to just facilitate online meetings, or to just empower consumers to freely trade securities.
Public investors and quantum computers who can vote with their feet every millisecond are likely going to reallocate their money into companies that demonstrate the vision and execution to not only acquire assets like Instagram and WhatsApp, but also key infrastructure like Parse and Onavo; or assets like Slack and Tableau; or assets like Minecraft, LinkedIn, and Activision.
The public markets will likely reward those companies who can diversify their product lines into messaging, analytics, gaming, and more — those special companies and business leaders who continue to bundle value into their platforms."
https://semilshah.com/2022/01/29/the-market-is-the-greatest-critic
8. Not for me as a city guy but it’s a good option for folks who like small towns and with Starlink coming, remote workers could really take advantage of this.
https://thehustle.co/would-you-take-free-land-in-rural-america
9. This is a great trend in my opinion. We need more entrepreneurs.
https://www.vox.com/recode/22884040/more-americans-starting-own-business-entrepreneur
10. This is a great thread on startups that do not raise VC $$. Love to see this.
https://mobile.twitter.com/josephflaherty/status/1488389092039614465
11. Good for him. I think he went on the Tweet storm rampage because he knew he was moving up to chairman role of Bolt (not stepping down because of it). He is at the F--U stage of life which is where we all should aspire to get to.
https://techcrunch.com/2022/01/31/ryanbreslow-bolt
12. I'm hopeful for Ukraine. Anyone who has spent time there, see the amazing potential and the awesome people.
https://cepa.org/war-within-a-war
13. The real reason driving the crisis in Ukraine? This is a very interesting and personality driven take.
https://time.com/6144109/russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin-viktor-medvedchuk
14. "Web3 is a world-changing opportunity to make a better version of the internet and wrest it away from the behemoths who control it today.
Web3 will make some people a lot of money. But many other people will lose their shirts on it.
So I’ve been spending time — and trying to adopt a mindset of cautious skepticism — attempting to figure out Web3 for myself. Spoiler: I didn’t quite figure it out.
But I found enough smart, thoughtful people who are genuinely fascinated with this stuff to make me think that there still may be something here, even while so much of it is nonsensical or worse. So I’ll keep paying attention. You might want to, too."
https://www.vox.com/recode/22907072/web3-crypto-nft-bitcoin-metaverse
15. Damn, that is a big VC fund. Tiger Global Fund 15. 11 Billion Dollars.
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/tiger-global-raised-11-billion-for-new-venture-fund
16. "Putin is preparing to invade Ukraine again—or pretending he will invade Ukraine again—for the same reason. He wants to destabilize Ukraine, frighten Ukraine. He wants Ukrainian democracy to fail. He wants the Ukrainian economy to collapse. He wants foreign investors to flee. He wants his neighbors—in Belarus, Kazakhstan, even Poland and Hungary—to doubt whether democracy will ever be viable, in the longer term, in their countries too.
Farther abroad, he wants to put so much strain on Western and democratic institutions, especially the European Union and NATO, that they break up. He wants to keep dictators in power wherever he can, in Syria, Venezuela, and Iran. He wants to undermine America, to shrink American influence, to remove the power of the democracy rhetoric that so many people in his part of the world still associate with America. He wants America itself to fail."
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/putin-ukraine-democracy/621465
17. This is pretty baller if you ask me.
https://futurism.com/the-byte/hacker-pajamas-north-korea
18. I mean, VC is in the human potential business after all.
"Still, the strongest indicator that VC could maybe use a reset ties to VCs’ eagerness to fund people who’ve yet to even start a company. “It’s not a new trend,” says Niko Bonatsos, a managing director with General Catalyst. “But it’s becoming more visible now because of the massive rise of pre-seed and seed investing,” he continues. “There are a ton of general partners, bigger funds and more deals, and we’re all getting paid to invest the capital.”
https://techcrunch.com/2022/02/03/no-company-no-problem
19. Great discussion on startup valuations. Especially many VCs and angels have only been investing in a bull market (myself included). We'll soon be learning who is really good (and who isn't)
"As an investor you're trying to use a valuation to balance risk and opportunity. If you look at the bull and the bear case you're looking at a wide range of possible outcomes. You have to ask the question, "what do I believe?" How confident am I in this company’s ability to triple next year? The year after that? Are they hiring enough people to make that happen? The right people? How big is this market? How competitive is it?
You have to decide what you believe. But once you do you have to ask yourself how capable you are of developing conviction if this is a "generational company" at $400M but an “irresponsible risk” at $500M."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/valuations
20. Lessons from Microsoft: a somewhat overlooked tech Juggernaut. Super bullish on them.
"If it plays its cards right, Microsoft can become the first $10T company. And startup founders would be wise to learn from the behemoth in Redmond."
https://luttig.substack.com/p/dont-forget-microsoft
21. This is a really solid book list for the aspiring Sovereign Individual.
https://dougantin.com/the-sovereign-individuals-reading-list-10-books
22. Important and worthwhile discussion on America's policy to Taiwan and Ukraine. Both places full of friends and of very deep personal and commercial interests to me.
https://warontherocks.com/2022/01/taiwan-is-not-ukraine-stop-linking-their-fates-together
23. Important and worthwhile discussion on America's policy to Taiwan and Ukraine. Both places full of friends and of very deep personal and commercial interests to me.
https://warontherocks.com/2022/01/taiwan-is-not-ukraine-stop-linking-their-fates-together
24. For anyone who says Ukraine is not strategic to the west. This is proof otherwise.
"So, not only does the east of Ukraine produce most of its wheat and metals (its core export products) but it is also its economic heart – the very key to its place in global supply chains.
The bad news is that wars are usually fought over supply chains. Ukrainians know this. In the 13th century, the grandchildren of Genghis Khan expanded the Mongol Empire well into modern-day Ukraine, destroying Kyiv in the process. Adolf Hitler looked to improve Germany’s food supplies during WWII, by exploiting the country’s agriculture industry.
More recently, Vladimir Putin seized control of Crimea and its oil reserves. According to The Telegraph, Ukraine lost 80% of its oil and gas assets in the Black Sea, which translates to hundreds of billions of dollars in lost revenues. Russia then backed separatists who started to seize parts of the country’s industrial hubs."
https://intelligencequarterly.com/europe-politics/why-ukraine-mr-putin
25. I truly hope this assessment on the present Ukraine-Russia crisis is correct.
26. This is pretty awesome.
"Although Radić is an above average player – his FIDE rating currently sits at 1,950 – it isn’t his playing that makes him a household name among chess enthusiasts. Instead, Radić is one of the most recognizable faces in chess because he created agadmator’s Chess Channel, a YouTube property with a staggering 1.21 million subscribers and over 553 million total views.
Radić is pursuing the work of his life."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/thats-the-good-stuff
27. Tallinn is a great city for digital nomads, although for me more in spring and summer than in winter. :)
28. If you think the Russia-Ukraine crisis does not affect you, you are grossly wrong. Reverberations will be global. Worth a read.
"Ultimately, the investment impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis will come down to how serious Russia is. If I am wrong about Russia’s intentions – if Russia really is preparing for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine – the West will react with sanctions against Russia that will reverberate throughout the global economy as energy prices and food prices surge upwards. If this happens, you ain’t seen nothing yet with inflation. It’s precisely because of this that I rate the probability of full-blown invasion as fairly low – it’s mutually assured destruction.
If things continue as they have been – continued dialogue leading to some kind of resolution, or at minimum a stalemate – expect more of the same, i.e., in the short-term, higher energy prices, a weaker ruble, downward pressure on Russian equities, and upward pressure on key Russian commodities, like wheat, fertilizer, and nickel, in the coming months – all of which present interesting opportunities for the brave of heart if, as geopolitics suggests, this situation resolves itself without a full-scale war."
https://www.thelykeion.com/explained-russia-and-ukraine
29. I definitely agree with this assessment, hosting the Olympics makes no sense for China right now. In fact, hosting Olympics in general are bad for host cities/countries economically.
https://ianbremmer.bulletin.com/is-hosting-the-olympics-worth-it-for-china
30. This is a good overview of investing in Longevity Biotech.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eoBspwgK-aA&list=PLllUANZc4t_BdISxxtngFByiRJHyIoAju&index=3
31. These takes are always interesting. Can't wait for his book in June. One thing I think Zeihan overlooks is the effect of technology & think he is overly optimistic about the USA which is a mess. Still good geopolitical take.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMGSz5ntWLI
32. So much potential in Turkey. Hope they can turn this around.
Great analysis on Turkey's macroeconomic environment. Lessons for other emerging markets.
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/turkey-you-were-doing-so-well
33. This is the best show online bar none. Great episode of the All in Podcast today.
Be Water: The Story of Bruce Lee, An Original Cultural Pioneer
I watched an amazing documentary on Bruce Lee, the legendary martial artist and movie star. He was born in San Francisco, grew up in Hong Kong but then immigrated back to the USA as a young adult at 18 with $100 usd. He literally started from the bottom and exemplifies the Chinese saying: “savoring the sweet while remembering the bitter.”
Bruce was such a charismatic individual who despite being rejected by white Hollywood with him given side kick roles. He ended up going back to HK to restart, becoming big before he came back to the US to hit it big. He was a teacher, actor/ entertainer, philosopher and amazing martial artist. In America, he broke barriers by teaching Kung Fu to anyone, not just Chinese people. He taught a philosophy of self actualization: “don’t accept the stereotype image that is cast upon you by others. Find what is worthwhile in yourself and express it”
I’ve learned so much from him and he has been inspiring Asian Americans since I was a kid. This post is not about railing about what was a racist system in America and how Hollywood at that time was reflective of this. It was the manifestation of the relatively closed and intolerant times back then.
But my point is that Bruce Lee never gave up despite the racism and all the other open and hidden barriers in his way. His “goal was always to show the beauty of Chinese culture” and boy did he succeed. He was known as the “cool Chinese guy” and Asia guru by many Hollywood stars like Steve McQueen & James Coburn.
He was flexible mentally, hence “be like water”, ambitious and very confident. Bruce was willing to move to Hong Kong to regroup when he was rejected in America. He realized that following the system didn’t work, so he decided to create something where he could showcase himself. He learned, built an audience of fans and planned his re-entry to Hollywood and America. He was resilient, persevered and just plain worked his damn ass off. There was a sense of inevitability to me.
He died way too young at 32 years of age but left an amazing legacy. One that has only started being filled in Hollywood now by Asian leading men recently in blockbusters like “Crazy Rich Asians” & “Shang Chi”. This should be incredibly inspiring for all of us. He succeeded in making a cultural impact that still resonates to this day. He has been an icon for the last 50 years (I love my DJ Bruce Lee t-shirt!).
I truly believe that Bruce Lee exemplifies the quote from the movie Gladiator: “What we do in life, echoes in eternity.”
Entering A Global and Decentralized World: Why You Need to Both Localize and Internationalize NOW!
One of my favorite Geopolitical writers, Peter Zeihan, describes the phenomena of the End of the US Global Era. He describes this in his book “Disunited Nations.” This was a world order that was established after World War 2. The United States with the biggest economy and navy in the world, basically bribed the non-Soviet Union World to join them. In return for their help against the USSR, they got access to the US Market, free trade and cheap energy & shipping lanes guaranteed by the US Navy. This allowed many parts of the world to industrialize and join the global market. After the Soviet Union collapsed at the end of 1991, this policy was left on cruise control and has slowly been collapsing due to growing American indifference (or maybe arrogance and complacency).
This Disinterested America of which Obama and Trump in recent Presidencies exemplified a domestic agenda & a pull back from many engagements and partnerships overseas. We see a reshoring of manufacturing and splitting apart from a now more hostile China. We also see a disengagement from the Middle East due to American energy independence.
Internally, we see the USA falling apart. Short term. Our apathy and growing ineffectiveness is due to two reasons. We are 1) Gerontocracy, defined by Wikipedia as
“A gerontocracy is a form of oligarchical rule in which an entity is ruled by leaders who are significantly older than most of the adult population. In many political structures, power within the ruling class accumulates with age, making the oldest the holders of the most power.”
Derek Thompson writes in the Atlantic that “The average age in Congress has hovered near its all-time high for the past decade. The Democrats’ House speaker and House majority leader are over 80. The Senate majority leader and minority leader are over 70. The fears and anxieties that dominate politics represent older Americans’ fears and fixations.”
This is what is leading us to become 2) An Ineptocracy. This is defined as:
“a system of government where the least capable to lead are elected by the least capable of producing, and where the members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed, are rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a diminishing number of producers.”
The US Fed and most Central Banks around the world are printing money like crazy and anyone going to the local grocery store certainly does see inflation. In fact, the last time we had a 6.81% inflation rate was back in 1982. Personally I think this number is understated. It’s going to get worse before it gets better. Inflation is war on the middle class and poor people: your hard earned money goes less further. And this is the environment we are entering. With all this bad news, we can sit and complain. Or knowing all of this, we have to take action. We are entering a new era where Personal Responsibility is key. This will mean the difference between thriving and just barely surviving. You get the gains but you also have to deal with the risks.
This is something my new favorite financial philosopher, Radigan Carter exemplifies and preaches. You have to take ownership for your life and future. You cannot rely on the government, the company you work at or anyone else.
Get to Know your neighbors. Make friends with policemen, Emergency Medical Technicians (EMTs), firemen & soldiers, they are cool and interesting people. Also these are people worth knowing in the case of natural disasters, or unnatural disasters like riots or breakdown of law and order.
Keep bulk stocks of non-perishable foods, canned foods, water and medical supplies in storage. Prepping is prudent. Also considering inflation and supply chain issues, this is a wise move.
Have multiple passports. Learn martial arts and weapons & tactics. Be as fit and healthy as you can.
You have to make money, create a business(es) and have multiple income streams. All remotely if possible. Have Cash and investments. Build equity. Diversify your assets and holdings all over the world. Like it or not, money does make the world go around and buys influence. It’s insurance.
Quoting the original “Toxic Masculine” man Andrew Tate, “Things are going to get harder and harder and you need money to protect yourself. I’m insulated from clownworld because there is a huge pile of money in the way. It’s hard to get to me. But you people, you don’t have the insulation.” A bit crass but not untrue. And something that is a good kick in the butt (all of ours I think). Let’s get to work!
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Feb 6th, 2022
“There is nothing permanent except change”–Heraclitus
This is important geopolitically. But also personally I have deep affinity for the Ukrainian and Russian people. Alas, politics gets in the way.
The West needs to take a much harder line against any Russian incursion & also should arm up the Ukrainian army more. Good fences make good neighbors. Relevant in any arena. The present wishy washy approach right now is weak and problematic to say the least.
https://mercurial.substack.com/p/special-briefing-the-russia-ukrainian
2. This is a good thing btw.
"The takeaway is not "fund = bad, being alone = good." It's a shifting of the focus towards the person. The influence they have as a renegade. Harry realized he could do more leaning into his own brand than trying to force himself into a monolith.
No one would argue these renegades are going to overwhelm the entire established venture community. The "kingdoms" of Sequoia, a16z, etc. are still powerhouses that aren’t going anywhere. But renegades exist in the ecosystem with them. They're not after-thoughts like regular angels that VCs might entice into a round to add flavor. They're frenemies that can contend for deals.
VC renegades have emerged from different backgrounds, whether from traditional celebrity (Serena Williams, Ashton Kutcher), new media (Harry Stebbings, Packy McCormick), operating roles (Elad Gil, Josh Buckley, Lachy Groom) or spin-offs from traditional funds (Lee Fixel, Katie Haun, Dave Yuan). And I think this is just the beginning of these kinds of investors."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/the-unbundling-of-venture-capital
3. "Since those early days, Air-Glaciers has become famous in Switzerland for its rapid deployments in Alpine disasters. They've extracted the injured from deep crevasses and carried them down from towering ledges on high mountain walls.
The skills to respond to such a wide variety of high-mountain disasters are honed by the Air-Glaciers rescuers through intensive training that begins with a three-year Swiss-mandated course in alpine guiding. That's followed by months of specialized practice and a yearlong paramedic course. Every 12 months, just before ski season, each of Air-Glaciers' rescue guides and pilots must also complete a weeklong proficiency course designed to refine their skills in everything from post-avalanche searches to high-altitude extractions."
https://www.gq.com/story/rescue-heroes-swiss-alps
4. "Given all these events, perhaps it is worth considering the possibility that the potential for conflict is not exclusively in Ukraine. Perhaps there is a chance that the Baltics and the Suwalki Gap are also “in play”.
The difference is immense. Another invasion in Ukraine will capture the world’s headlines but probably not move the world’s markets. Action in the Baltics and across the Suwalki Gap will."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/warwhere-the-suwalki-gap-part-2
5. "The old warfare was about damaging an opponent’s hardware before it could do any damage. The new warfare is about denial of use. It’s about damaging access to the digital operating space by disrupting access to WIFI, GPS and Sat Nav. But, that has untold consequences for civilian life we should all be thinking about.
Further complicating matters, the Superpowers seem to have spent the last decade pushing militaries themselves off-balance sheet. The debt problem has led to the privatization of militaries. We may have more mercenaries funded by governments today than at any time in history. The Russians have done the same, perhaps for other reasons. Plausible deniability is valuable in a world where conflict is remote and subthreshold.
Private American and Russian mercenaries and Chinese "contracters” seem to be all over Africa, the Middle East and Asia these days. It has become nearly impossible to disentangle the role of the state and private military organizations in this new era of competition, confrontation and sub-threshold conflict."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/wwiii-has-already-started
6. Important facet of any future war. Cyber aspect of it.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/beginners-guide-cyber-war-terrorism-espionage-tony-martin-vegue
7. Man, I really miss Warsaw and Poland overall. Hope to make it back in the summer.
https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/lifestyle/article/warsaw-travel-guide
8. I am very partial to Ukraine. An interesting diagnosis on the country. Bullish on the place assuming it does not get invaded.
"Ukraine has one huge advantage: It has a very important reason to grow. Becoming a rich country like Poland is Ukraine’s best chance for standing up to a domineering neighbor three times its size. External military threat has been a catalyst for development for countries throughout the ages, most notably Japan and South Korea. Hopefully it will do the same for Ukraine now."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-is-ukraine-such-an-economic-failure
9. Good analysis on the crisis in Ukraine. I hope peace prevails here.
https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/01/moscows-compellence-strategy
10. This is hilarious and eye-opening.
"In recent years, research has suggested that a certain fraction of consumers are particularly skilled at picking out products that are destined to fail, or get discontinued.
They’re called harbingers of failure, or harbinger customers."
https://thehustle.co/the-customers-who-repeatedly-buy-doomed-products
11. What a surprise: high employee turnover at high growth startups run by people who have never managed people before. This is frankly endemic in startup world.
But it's possible to turnaround assuming founders get professional coaches or lean on new experienced execs. Most founders will not though sadly. #Hubris
https://sifted.eu/articles/n26-employee-exodus
12. Whatever you think, Putin has been masterful. I personally do not like it at all but you have to give him credit where its due, he has been playing chess while the west plays checkers (badly).
"All this activity is the culmination of years of painstaking Russian planning and effort that long predated active Russian preparations to threaten an invasion of Ukraine. It is another example of Putin’s ability to conceive and pursue coherent strategies over a long period of time, not just to seize opportunities. And Putin has always meant it to threaten NATO as well as Ukraine."
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/591008-nato-must-reinforce-its-eastern-flank-right-now
13. "So for now, we have to make do with the next best thing: A network of overlapping, mutually reinforcing alliances and partnerships that serve to thicken and reinforce the barriers to aggression. The Quad is part of that; AUKUS helps; the Japan-Australia defense cooperation act signed recently is a good sign. It's great when six or seven nations get together in military exercises, as happened in the Philippine Sea in October, or when the U.S. and Japan subtly advertise (mostly through media leaks) their plans to cooperate militarily in the defense of Taiwan.
Perhaps one day we'll get to a more formal, multilateral organization for collective defense in the region, but for now we need a lot of little things that add up to the threat of a very big, multilateral response if China uses force.
The good news is that, even together, Russia and China can't overmatch the U.S. and its allies. Even a distracted U.S. plus NATO is still capable of competing with Russia; the U.S. plus its allies and partners in Asia has significantly more geopolitical heft than China. I don't want to make this sound easier than it is. But the balance of power still favors the democracies."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/interview-hal-brands-international
14. "The risk of being exposed to the liquidity trade (long bonds, tech, private equity, ESG, most of crypto) given peak profit margins and hawkish environment is now significantly higher, and we might want to hedge our exposure or take some profits where we can.
Real Assets continue to be our preferred theme: from commodities to real estate (selectively, and hopefully near a surfable beach) and some buckets of equities (significant preference for value over growth simply because it allows us to sleep at night, and we really like to sleep). This is a multi-year theme that will continue to play out.
You know our view on Bitcoin, and broadly think that we should (1) only allocate money that, if we lose it, it won’t change our life (2) only think about taking profits when Tom Brady retires, or Tim stops trying to be a surfer.
After the beating last year, Emerging Markets might bring some positive upside, especially if the US Dollar softens – but we need to know what we’re investing in, and that also includes an awareness of the local rule of law and of the “in between the lines” shenanigans of politics."
https://www.thelykeion.com/higher-rates-peak-margins-and-how-to-allocate
15. A skeptic’s view of Bitcoin.
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/dollars-ex-machina
16. Good summary of key drivers of the crazy market we are in.
"We look at things purely through the money lens of the economy sometimes. But the economy and markets are much more than just stock and flow - it’s human behavior. And when we think about coming out the other side of a pandemic (maybe?), there was a psychological human cost to that. There’s a human cost to ALL OF THIS.
Markets are mechanisms that price change - reflections of ourselves. They tell us what we want to see, what we want to believe. When things get rough, it’s super easy to get pessimistic - in fact, it’s human nature to do so. Reflexivity begets reflexivity.
Everything is a game until it is not. We sometimes get caught in the game, which I think happened to many in the most recent crypto/stock cycle - the game becomes us, we are defined by the money we make, by the gains - money becomes a religion. And when the losses come - well, so does the loss of faith.
However, the game is changing - the possibility to enact change with some elements of crypto/web3, the need for alternative energy sources, demographic shifts - it’s a constant evolution, a constant shift of the economic game."
https://kyla.substack.com/p/on-market-movement
17. Definitely good perspective here on the Ukraine-Russia issue.
https://puck.news/inside-the-biden-putin-chess-match
18. This is an incredible situation that the EU has gotten themselves in & entirely preventable.
"The #1 lesson of Europe’s natural gas dependence is this: European governments have wildly overestimated the ability of solar and wind to provide the energy they need and wildly underestimated the need for fossil fuels and nuclear to provide the energy they need.
If Europe’s level of dependence on Russia for natural gas scares you, know this: America is even more dependent on China for many of the key components of solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries than Europe is on Russia for natural gas."
https://alexepstein.substack.com/p/europes-extreme-vulnerability-to
19. I agree with this. Africa is a super interesting frontier investment opportunity.
https://mailchi.mp/1a4a49e014a5/one-of-my-favourite-long-term-investments?e=123a1c25c4
20. This is really smart & differentiated. So glad I am not in the accelerator game anymore. Pear, ODX & Hyper are the ones to watch.
"The short version is: distribution. It’s hard to argue with the overall assumption that the Hyper team is working under — capital is majorly commoditized. Frankly, sometimes that’s all you want from an investor whose value add is more of a thorn in your side than anything. But, especially at the early stage there are a few funds and firms that offer a strong value outside of writing checks in the form of, say, hiring, sales introductions or board members that have relevant operational experience.
Where Hyper differs, says Buckley, is that they see distribution as the biggest value add for a nascent startup at the stages where the firm hopes to invest. Product Hunt is one opportunity that he points to as an example. It’s an established launch pad to an audience of extreme early adopters that can provide a seed of a real user base — Hyper itself is launching via a post on the platform."
21. The Russian military is no joke. They mean serious business.
https://news.yahoo.com/russias-military-once-creaky-modern-124721425.html
22. I seriously hope these guys are right. War in Ukraine is bad for everyone.
https://sofrep.com/news/we-remain-skeptical-that-russia-will-invade-ukraine
23. Jim Rogers is an international investing legend and inspiration for me personally.
https://www.codiesanchez.com/blog/2017/8/14/jim-rogers-investing-legend-original-nomad
24. Write up on Jim Rogers. Pay attention to this guy.
https://ckarchive.com/b/v8u3hrh6gq37
25. One of my favorite thinkers. Balaji S Srinivasan. Worth listening if you want to understand the future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F4RTXF1JX0E
26. Part 2 of this amazing interview. Info dense discussion with Balaji.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDvTrw7QW6E
27. "But a new wave of aging pros competing and winning at the highest level is showing how you can age not just gracefully but masterfully. I'm thinking of Tom Brady (44), LeBron James (37), Chris Paul (36), Serena Williams (40), Sue Bird (41), Cristiano Ronaldo (36), Lionel Messi (34), Phil Mickelson (51), and Roger Federer (40). And I could go on: It's not just one sport, or a few outliers, or veterans transitioning into supporting roles. It's a sports-wide revolution.
And you may have heard about the out-there things they're doing to maintain their bodies: Brady has so optimized his nutrition that he tries to avoid coffee and even tomatoes. LeBron reportedly spends more than a million dollars on his body annually, on everything from cryotherapy to pedicures.
But beyond the expensive equipment and the sometimes dubious cutting-edge science, something bigger is happening: The greatest athletes are realizing that you can't play your way into shape; performance is a no-days-off, year-round lifestyle. It's the commitment to fundamental, practical routines that amateurs like you and me can learn from. The moves pros are using to delay their twilight by just a few years can help the rest of us feel and live well for decades."
https://www.gq.com/story/lessons-from-ageless-super-athletes
28. This is too bad. But also shows how challenging and early we are in growing IoT space.
29. Tech growth stocks, especially in B2B side may be oversold. I like them for the long run.
"Buying growth stocks on the cheap will remain a good strategy for long-term capital growth.
Timing is difficult, though, and no one will ever manage to catch stocks exactly at the bottom.
However, what you do have full control over is to pick companies that are not at risk of going out of business if the market takes longer to turn around. Also, you can (and should) focus on businesses that have a track record of growing even during periods when financial markets and the broader economy are weak.
That's why I have long been a proponent of companies that run subscription-based business models. Such companies don't start at zero every year. Instead, they can tell you in advance how much baseline revenue they are likely to generate from existing subscribers. The steady cash flow doesn't just enable such companies to weather the storm, but they may also be able to invest in growth during times when others struggle to raise funding. Last but not least, some of them can increase their margins by "upselling" their customers to additional services."
30. "There are countless examples over the last few years that should shake VCs awake and help them realize there are a lot of founders in a lot of sectors at a lot of stages and they don't all want the same thing. Folks like Boldstart proved that founders are prioritizing people who will actually help them over big brands. Stripe proved that corporate VC's can be fast-moving value-add partners. Tiger proved that some founders just want to be left alone!
Very few firms have a clear answer to the question "what is your differentiated product?." There has never been a better time for venture firms to stop and think about what a product-led venture firm would do."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/productization
31. This is a very disturbing discussion but its important. Possible negative scenarios for the world order but better to understand prepare. Its very worthwhile.
Chaos=Disorganized violence & Decentralized & massive opportunities/Upside/failure
Order=CCP: Organized, Stable and centralized violence
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nlEStTMauBg
32. Very wise reminder and write up here. Especially as we've seen our investment portfolios get decimated in last few weeks.
"Focus on what matters. Be a Stoic in the face of temptation. Use Time to your advantage. Diversify your investments.
In any economic climate, how do we build economic security, foster love, and find joy? How do we get rich?
Slowly."
https://www.profgalloway.com/the-algebra-of-wealth-2
33. A very cogent discussion on the Ukraine-Russian (and EU/USA) crisis.
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-68-putins-challenge-to
34. This is a really interesting company with some impressive people at the helm.
https://a16z.com/2022/01/25/investing-in-prologue
35. For anyone who cares about democracy or self sovereignty this is worth reading. The place is worth defending.
Ukraine has its problems but it has changed alot in the last 8 years as someone who has been going there since 2007.
No one wants war, either regular Ukrainians or Russians that I know.
Macro versus Micro: the Challenges of Investing Well as a Venture Capitalist
Frameworks are critical for any investor whether in public or private assets.
Ultimately a good investor has to understand two key categories to have a chance. I classify these as Macro & Micro.
Macro are the underlying trends: economic, sociopolitical, technology, consumer behavior, generational, globalization versus deglobalization. The actual market they are targeting & whether there is a broad range of customers there.
Micro is usually the tactical level. Things like the team and & company. Their ability to execute. The actual business model. How they are positioned versus competition.
You have to get both right to have a big HIT.
This is why I find the continual VC debate of market versus team stupid and tiresome.
Having said that, if you HAVE to make a choice, Micro is what early stage startup investing is about. Basically “Pick the team”. The team can potentially grind things out and wait until a trend turns their way. Or they can pivot into a new market (whether customer segment, industry or geography). Or even change the business model. That is probably the reason why there has been so much talk recently of VCs directly investing in the individual as stated in Sam Lessin’s excellent article here: Investing Directly in People Is the Future of VC. Here’s How to Do It.
Now don’t get me wrong. Targeting the right market and having underlying trends support your business are critical. Individuals really matter here: they can overcome market deficiencies or many times their own personal deficiencies & limitations. I’ve also seen way too many examples of founders getting the market right and hitting product market fit but are unable to scale. They flub up things so badly, they both lose momentum and enter a death spiral.
This is the business world’s version of the “Great man or woman” theory. VC is ultimately about being in the “human potential business.” Can and do you recognize a founder's true potential?
This is why I specifically look for founders who have grit, are decisive & mission oriented, have faced & overcome personal challenges in the past. In the old Chinese saying: they “have tasted bitterness.” These Founders typically have played sports at competitive level, or are ex-military or immigrants or children of immigrants. These are folks who can build, position themselves in front of a market and last long enough until trends turn their way.
Easier said than done of course. But I’ve seen so many examples of these successes in the last 20+ years across the globe that I 110% believe it’s more than possible. And it’s also becoming more common over time as best practices and model examples proliferate.
What a wonderful time to be an entrepreneur and investor!
Staring Down the Abyss: the Reality of Entrepreneurship
I’ve been pondering the journey of entrepreneurship. And it’s really an amazing journey of Grit and endurance. The ultimate test. There is nothing in the world closer to alchemy. You are literally creating something from nothing.
And because of this, it’s bloody hard. It’ll push you to your mental and sometimes physical limits. Elon Musk was reported to have said “Starting a company is like eating glass and staring into the abyss.” Wondering whether a customer will pay you, whether a credit card will clear or whether you will raise that round and miraculously make payroll.
The incredible stress that occurs when you question your own decisions, especially when the odds are against you, your family and friends are openly wondering why you didn’t just take that job or quit that high paying job at Google (or some other prestigious Fortune 500 company). Every day is a roller coaster, the highs are high and the lows are low. Sometimes they happen the same day.
This is something many investors don’t understand and many are not able to empathize with. This is why most people in the world can never understand this path. But the reality is that we are moving into a world where entrepreneurship is going to be the de facto route of not just thriving but surviving. Relying on a supposedly safe job at a safe company will be a risky path as our world economy will be bracketed by massive changes: technological, economical, demographically and probably most importantly, geopolitically.
We are entering a decentralized world where the world's only Hyperpower, the United States, is declining and retreating inward. Read Peter Zeihan’s books and Radigan Carter (https://www.radigancarter.com) if you want to understand this point more. The result is that the globalized world order we have gotten used to over the last 70 years is coming to an end. The supply chain issues we are facing are just a symptom of this. And many companies are facing massive changes they are not able to cope with. The end result will always be massive layoffs from technology adoption and offshoring or reshoring.
This is a world where you have to take complete ownership of your future and decisions. A path that is not dependent on others and is not taught in school. Especially not in most Business schools, which are oriented toward creating corporate drones. We will be responsible for our own path whether we like it or not. The sooner we understand this the better off we will be.
This is why I focus so much on pushing the cult of entrepreneurship. Even if you have a good job, make sure you keep a low cost structure and invest your time in one or two or even three side hustles. Obviously not all at the same time but over time. This redundancy of income streams is critical. Additionally treat yourself like a business: learn to invest your time and extra money into things that provide an ROI. Build assets. Learn new skills like the latest in online marketing or copywriting. Take classes which will give you a framework and ideas to start. I strongly recommend David Perells “Write of Passage” (https://writeofpassage.school) and Jose Rosado & Alejandro Corte’s “Wifi Money Machine” (https://alexanderjacortes.gumroad.com/l/wifimoneymachine).
All these things will help you bear the storm that is coming for us over the next decade. And if I am wrong and there is no storm, you will be far ahead of anyone else anyways.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Jan 30th, 2022
“New beginnings are often disguised as painful endings”--Lao Tzu
"Starbucks crushed many mom-and-pop coffee shops. Walmart did the same to small department and grocery stores alike. Local hardware stores have been largely replaced by Lowe’s and Home Depot. The response to the pandemic destroyed countless small businesses, much to the advantage of giants like Amazon. One wonders why so much attention is being selectively paid to the plight of the small rancher.
The senator most responsible for pushing this issue is Max Baucus of Montana, Biden’s longtime Democratic colleague and ally in the Senate. It wouldn’t surprise us if Baucus sold Biden’s team on the usefulness of this issue as a political deflection point for the inflation challenges facing the administration.
Naturally, Baucus’ family runs the famous Sieben Ranch in Helena, Montana. Plus c'est la même chose."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/political-hamburglars
2. This is a damn good show. Can't believe I just discovered it now. I need to get out of my bubble.
3. "Yes, the Fed is likely to hike. Yes, the Fed is likely to try and start tightening the balance sheet again. Yes, other G10 central banks ought to try and be hawkish… What happens when you tighten into a massive slowdown in the rate of change of credit, is that you flatten the curve materially... And I am even tempted to say that you should both buy the USD and duration (in most currencies) with an arm and a leg already now.. And equities overall.."
https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/vikings
4. I expect there are alot more tech biz people living in nice rural areas than we think. Good for you Wesley.
"I never want to bag on San Francisco; it’s been very generous to me over the last 20 years. But it’s also a place where, when things go crazy, it’s not a fun or comfortable place to be. I was in San Francisco when the shutdown occurred and I was watching these crazy long lines around supermarkets. So I got in my car and visited like 10 national parks.
When I got to Wyoming, where Grand Teton National Park is and Yellowstone, I fell in love with it. It was the most beautiful place on the planet. I’ve always dreamt of owning a mountain home. Everyone was on remote Zooms; I predicted this thing would last two-plus years. So I just bought a house. I said, “Why not?” and I’ve been here ever since."
5. Great concept: Longitudinal Hiring.
"the increasing usage of Longitudinal hiring. What this means is that companies are not looking at the location of the employee anymore but rather at the timezone he/she is present in.
So for example, a company that is headquartered in New York shares the same timezone as Venezuela, Bahamas, Toronto, etc and even Argentina is just 1 hour ahead. The amount of talent that companies would have access to if they start hiring based on timezones is monumental. So long companies have restricted themselves to a small subset of people who would be willing to relocate, but with longitudinal arbitrage, they have unlocked a whole lot more talent."
https://vadithya.com/what-is-longitudinal-arbitrage
6. This mess is also because of the EU's badly thought out anti-Nuclear Energy policy. "Policy by Platitude".
"The project in question is Nord Stream 2, an $11 billion Russian-owned pipeline that has Washington in a difficult position with some of its European allies, divided other European countries among themselves, and weakened Ukraine.
And Russia, in case you haven’t figured out, wants all of those things — a geopolitical tool to get leverage over Europe, a vulnerable Ukraine, and a payout from the pipeline."
https://www.vox.com/22881709/nord-stream-2-russia-ukraine-germany-united-states-cruz
7. The future of war. It's coming, like it or not.
https://futurism.com/the-byte/one-person-fly-drone-swarm
8. I'll definitely be picking up this book. "Davos Man"
https://time.com/charter/6139479/davos-man-peter-goodman
9. This is a pretty damn good rubric.
https://davidcummings.org/2022/01/15/friedbergs-rubric-for-business-value-creation
10. Sounds about right.
"In short, while at larger companies positioning is indeed suffering, at seed-stage companies, positioning is the quick search for simple clarity."
https://kellblog.com/2022/01/07/seed-stage-positioning-lock-and-load
11. Older book but one I'll have to check out. India seems to be becoming the new center of the world balancing out China and the USA.
https://branko2f7.substack.com/p/capital-the-explosion-of-delhi
12. "Somewhere in the years leading up to the layoffs, I had been exposed to the idea that a business and a company are not one and the same. We tend, in startup-land, to use the terms interchangeably. But they are not the same.
A business is comprised of a product or service sold to customers in exchange for money, attention, or some other form of payment.
A company is a collection of humans brought together around a shared effort or mission.
We speak a lot in startups about how to build a business: how to learn from customers, how to build a great product, how to test various acquisition strategies, how to raise capital, etc. But we speak very little about how to build a company."
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/build-company-just-business-matt-munson
13. "Cartels are effective precisely because they do not look like evil monopolies at all. The coastal homeowner campaigning against new development looks like your mother, and very well might actually be your mother. Doctors and schoolteachers are the healers and educators of society, not the enemy. None of them believe that they are advocating for policies that take from the poor and give to the rich; they are certain that the true problem with housing must lie with developers and investors, or that the true problem with health care must lie with administrators and CEOs.
This is what makes cartels more dangerous. The tech sector is actually quite small compared to housing and health care; none of the major tech companies have revenue much greater than $200 billion globally, while housing and health care reach into the multiple trillions of dollars per year in the U.S. alone."
https://philo.substack.com/p/cartels
14. This seems ominous.
"The metaverse represents the most recent battle between human freedom and the constraints of reality. It could also become a battle to define reality itself."
https://www.city-journal.org/enter-the-metaverse
15. "As people wake up to inflation being 7%+, it means that they losenearly a month of their entire working year. Keeping it simple, even if you think that inflation is only 8.33% it means that you lost one full month of production, so *your after tax* income needed to rise by more than 8.33% to live the exact same life in 2022 as you did last year. Insanity."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/understanding-the-dangers-of-centralization
16. "The good news about Web3 is that it cannot give rise to the type of tyrannies we saw in Web 2.0. People often say "OpenSea will be the Facebook of Web3" or "Coinbase will be the Amazon of Web3". But they're missing an important point: In a world where users can pick up their things and leave, tyrants will behave completely differently. And tyrannies like the ones we've seen in the past could simply not survive.
The bad news about Web3 is that new types of tyrannies can emerge. In this case, the role of the US is played by the largest blockchains, particularly Ethereum. Ethereum currently enables users to move freely between apps and platforms and move money and assets across digital and physical borders. That's wonderful and it enhances individual freedom and keeps all participants in check."
https://www.drorpoleg.com/stalin-in-the-metaverse
17. Some good news in America.
"So densifying America is going to be a brutal, long, uphill slog, no matter what. But it’s a task to which smart young activists, thinkers, and organizers have increasingly set their minds. Our history shows that rarely do such campaigns fail without changing the country in some tangible way. YIMBYism addresses a real and pressing economic problem, but it also touches a deep need in the human spirit — the need to live close to other human beings. The pandemic isolated us all from each other, and urbanism is one way of reaching to reclaim the physical contact we’ve lost."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-yimbys-are-starting-to-win-a
18. This is a bad way to start off the year. This is bad for everyone.
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/warwords-part-one
19. This is a big deal. 69B big. MSFT buys Blizzard. Gaming is happening.
https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/microsoft-to-buy-activision-for-69b-5694026
20. "“Fighting insurgencies,” we haven’t been so good at, from Vietnam to Iraq and Afghanistan, where U.S. efforts were undermined by their tethers to corrupt, inefficient regimes and officials. Supporting insurgencies, we’ve been better at.
That’s a message Washington wants Moscow to hear in the Kabuki shadow war over Ukraine. And it’s understood that some in Washington are indeed serious about setting fires in Kazakhstan and elsewhere—not just Ukraine—should Russian troops and tanks cross the Dnieper in the coming days."
https://www.spytalk.co/p/us-signaling-putin-that-ukraine-will
21. This is a cool dude. Daniel Dae Kim.
22. "What is interesting about the relation between state conflict and technology is that just as new technologies slowly raised the destructive potential of direct conflict, a new avenue was opened: states can now fight each other not by winning in a direct battle but by setting the rules under which other states must operate. Call it a form of indirect government: perhaps your opponent will even assume the rules are natural or given, but in reality you have moved one level up in the great game.
Your opponent is playing a video game. You are coding it. I would reserve the term superpower for those states engaged in a battle to shape the rules. Everyone else is competing under the rules."
https://brunomacaes.substack.com/p/technology-wars-the-singularity-is
23. Always worth listening to Balaji. Rise of Indian & Chinese state capacity. Decline of US state capacity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4M85Vctnj90
24. This is a lot of $$ and VC investor super power. As with these specific situations & hyped companies, this will be either a crazy massive hit or massive dud, MUCH more so than usual in VC. Many times these turn into the Silicon Valley version of Matrix 2 the movie due to the hype.
25. This is going to be good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IM_4-XFeRyA
26. Audience first is the rule. So many business opportunities come from this.
"Ultimately, the successful Boy Brands are the ones that come from musicians who are as savvy at communicating with their fans about things and taste as they are about making resonant music. “These businesses are not for everyone,” says Beckman, “and that’s why the community—the tribe—that these artists bring along with them is really critical.” If an artist can cultivate a fandom in that way—which is increasingly the way traditional luxury brands are trying to operate—“then it could become a sustainable, real business.”
https://www.gq.com/story/boy-brands-frank-ocean-tyler-the-creator-harry-styles
27. This is just one of the best scenes in any movie. The Heat cafe scene with Pacino and Deniro. Masterclass based on a true life occurrence.
https://www.zavvi.com/blog/features/heat-at-25-how-that-incredible-diner-scene-came-to-be
28. Big fan of Lithuania. Down with the CCP. The new geopolitical bullies.
"It is too soon to tell whether Lithuania is the lone nut and Slovenia the first follower that triggers a foot-stomping dance party on the CCP’s credibility, but the coming days and weeks will be telling."
“The Lost City of Z”: Adventures on the Frontier
The Royal Geographic Society (RGS) in turn of the century British Empire was a major driver for exploration. Centered in London, at the height of the Empire, it was responsible for funding mapping expeditions across the world. This was the height of the age of exploration.
This movie, based on a true story, takes place in the early 1900s when a young British officer named Fawcett is charged by RGS to map the undiscovered wilds jungles and Amazon river of Bolivia in order to prevent War between Brazil and Peru. Facing challenging terrain, disease and hostile Indian tribes along the whole route. Along the way he finds signs of an ancient city and civilization. This becomes his life mission of discovery.
A dangerous but grand adventure. Chasing & mapping the uncharted frontier.
Frontiers are important. These need to exist. For the most young and ambitious, for those who want to craft their own future or even have a chance to start all over again.
We all need a challenge to overcome. A great quest. A mission. A new place to seek and conquer.
America used to be this place during the 1700 and 1800s. As America developed during the 1900s & 2000s, it was the West Coast where the action was. The Technology industry has grown madly.
Now as the technology industry is now mainstream, America seems to be closing in on itself. Ambition levels in general among the populace seem to have dropped. We’ve had so much prosperity for so long that we have gotten arrogant and complacent as a society. As stated in the movie: “But there is no safe passage in life.”
We need new frontiers to explore and conquer even if it’s just in our minds. Space, the Ocean, Clean Energy, Artificial Intelligence, Crypto & Decentralized Technology, Biotech & the Human body. Pushing forward in new territory is humbling yet critical for human progress. This is why I’m so bullish on the ever growing entrepreneurial revolution around the world. One that will illuminate the world if we do it right.
As long as there are brilliant young people willing to push and pursue the frontiers of these sectors, I will continue to remain optimistic about the future.
Quality over Quantity: Tracking Smart People to Find the Future
Super smart Investor and founder Chris Dixon once wrote “What the smartest people do on the weekends is what everyone else will do during the week in ten years.”
This has been one of the deepest insights that I’ve used to understand what the future looks like. I remember it used to be called “Cool Hunting” back in the 90s. It’s incredibly relevant for figuring which companies to join or leave, which industries are going to be hitting critical mass; which cities or countries are on the rise and conversely which ones are on the downward slope. Basically you see if there are magnets of opportunity or the reverse where very few opportunities & growth for young smart people and thus they leave. And I should add it’s almost always the youngest, most ambitious, best and brightest who have the option to leave.
I have stated many times how I overstayed at all the places I worked at. For example, at Yahoo! was a hot house of talent from 2003-2008. But frankly most of the best engineers, sales people, product people and executives started leaving in 2007 and this brain drain accelerated from that point onwards to a bunch of rising companies like Facebook for example. Looking back in retrospect, the writing was clearly on the wall for Yahoo! back in 2008. Paraphrasing Tencent’s founder Pony Ma, the corpse was still warm.
The movement of the youngest and most exceptional talent is hard to track but it’s incredibly helpful as a leading indicator on which companies or industries to go deeper on as an investor, employee or founder. So for example, from 2020, what I see from an industry perspective is that the best people are moving and trying to get into Web3 aka Crypto or Climate-tech. On the company front, it seems all the best folks are trying to join Stripe, Carta or OnDeck as the next major big mega-startup.
This is reflective of the movement of super smart people back in the 1980s for Wall Street, or the early 90s for Management Consulting, and the early 2000s for Technology & Hedge Funds. Where there is growth and opportunity, the most exceptional and ambitious people go.
This also works incredibly well for Countries. I track whether the best and brightest young people leave or stay in their country. So for example, I see a net inflow of talent into Israel or Canada. The United States up until recently was a mass attractor of great young talent. Dubai & Singapore are net importers of talent. People don’t just stay in this place, people elsewhere choose to go there. Poland used to be a net exporter but I’ve seen in the last few years, many expat Poles returning home and many young choosing to stay and build their careers at home. These are good signals for these places.
On the reverse side, we see many of the best and brightest leaving places like Russia or the various Balkan countries. The exodus of young talent does not bode well for these countries despite being nice places to live.
When it comes to cities, New York has always been a center for talent: being the center for finance, advertising, fashion, and art. Despite a challenging 2020 and what seemed like an exodus of people, it seems to have recovered fairly well unlike in San Francisco or Los Angeles. And How can I not raise the examples of Miami? The Miami example is most instructive to show how a few quality people can really change the trajectory of an ecosystem and city. Mayor Saurez is a brilliant & PR savvy mayor and through his charm offensive was able to get key Silicon Valley & New York tech individuals to come visit and even stay in Miami. Very prominent tech players like Keith Rabois, Anthony Pompliano, Harry Hurst, Bobby Goodlatte, David Blumberg, Jack Abraham and many others. This was the critical mass that has attracted even more tech folks both as new residents and regular visitors.
The point is that people really matter. There is a quote I love by Bryant McGill “One person really can make a difference. Each person is the revolution.” A critical mass of great people can literally change the direction of a country or company.
To really understand the future and the health of a company, industry, city & country, track where the best and brightest are going. This is one of the best leading indicators one can use to understand the emerging new world.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Jan 23rd, 2022
“The beginning is the most important part of the work”--Plato
Very interesting perspective and parallels.
"Looking back, it is easy to see the results of moving my body to America and brain to Ethereum. Both offer a frontier. America has always been the catalyst of liberal democracy, decentralised governance, and hyper-competitive capitalism. Ethereum is becoming a credibly neutral digital substrate that lives above countries’ jurisdictions on the Internet.
What has become much clearer to me over the years is that The American Dream and The Etherean Dream are very much the same."
https://ricburton.substack.com/p/-the-etherean-and-american-dream
2. Ironically two of the most important countries to me personally: Taiwan and Ukraine.
"The parallel between Ukraine and Taiwan suffers from three main pitfalls. First, Taiwan is becoming a far more important geopolitical asset to the United States in the Indo-Pacific. Second, Russia and China’s motivations for initiating conflict differ more than many believe, which will impact how both states are likely to act. Third, Taiwan is more deeply integrated into key supply chains and trade networks than Ukraine is. In other words, the Ukraine-Taiwan analogy obscures as much as it illuminates."
3. What a crazy story. Just started reading the book.
"So began a craze akin to the dot-com bubble: Investors who knew basically nothing about the inner workings of South American countries went on a buying spree, inflating the value of the bonds and creating an intense resale market."
https://thehustle.co/the-con-artist-who-sold-rich-investors-a-fake-country
4. "Filmmaker, influencer, content creator, chef – Rea has an abundance of titles, but he also fits within a new and growing breed of influencer-entrepreneurs. “Influpreneurs”, if you will, are online stars who build their own businesses that disrupt the establishment in their field. They launch products that sell out in hours, produce media for millions of loyal fans and collaborate with high-profile companies.
They offer their platform to new talent by hiring hosts and create media empires by launching numerous shows. Legacy media respect influpreneurs for their expertise, whether the star in question is a chef, fitness guru or engineer"
https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/culture/article/meet-the-influpreneurs-youtube
5. "Officially, Gymshark produces “conditioning” clothing. The brand is most often compared to transatlantic fitness labels such as Lululemon or Under Armour, despite being younger than both by more than a decade. What powers Gymshark is its astonishing digital reach. On its official channels alone there are more than 32m views on YouTube, 5.4m followers on Instagram and 3.3m on TikTok, to say nothing of the influencers with whom it partners. Gymshark creates workout gear designed to look good on TikTok."
https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/fitness/article/ben-francis-interview-2021
6. Doomberg interview. Lots of good discussion on the energy business and policy and the emerging gig economy for brains.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZSd9ZEbfHg
7. "Crypto and web3 promise to increase my freedom to switch between the platforms I rely on and my likelihood to survive a hostile action by one of them. This promise is only partly fulfilled at this point, and it might never materialize in full.
Unlike some, I do not believe that web3 will be more just or equitable or even more free by default. But I do believe it offers the possibility of increasing our freedom and agency. And, in light of general and personal history, this possibility is enough to pique my curiosity and garner my support.
To most users, the freedom to pack up and move your digital assets and identity does not matter. But it might matter one day, and when it does, it will matter a lot."
https://www.drorpoleg.com/unpacking-the-web3-sausage
8. These are some solid gaming industry predictions. Always worth reading.
https://venturebeat.com/2021/12/31/the-deanbeat-predictions-for-gaming-2022
9. This is good. I think the best investors, board members and leaders do this.
"Most people think of demanding and supportive as opposite ends of a spectrum. You can either be tough or you can be nice. But the best leaders don’t choose. They are both highly demanding and highly supportive. They push you to new heights and they also have your back."
https://rkg.blog/demanding.php
10. Fascinated by this evolution of warfare: drones and motorcycles.
https://twitter.com/byPeterParadise/status/1480268764964872194
11. Good list. I'd go to Serbia, Armenia, Mexico & Colombia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEcxP4pSDJU
12. Late to this as it’s 1 year old but this is an awesome interview. Still super relevant.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=GCmrmeqcbi8
13. I'm on a Doomberg kick. You need to understand the physical economy & what's going on. Remember energy is life and L1. Tech is really L3 so we all better wake up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=DH9eTmukarQ
14. This is a big deal. Consolidation happening fast in gaming industry.
15. "Define how you want your life to be different, and then start heading in that direction. You'll make progress as you gradually build up your relationships, connections, skills, resources, and portfolio."
https://justinjackson.ca/work-harder
16. A very worthwhile interview here.
"Tyler is a highly eclectic thinker, drawing his ideas from a vast array of inspirations and stubbornly refusing to allow any particular ideology or school of thought to limit the scope of his theses. This is how I’ve also tried to be, though I think he still does it better. And of course, he manages his role as a public intellectual while maintaining a career in academia and the nonprofit world, and even a foray into venture capital. “Impressive” is an understatement!"
Great observation:
"The complacent are ever more complacent. The entrepreneurial and independent-minded are all the more so. We even saw this in the pandemic. Many people retreated in fear, or had mental health problems, or simply shut down. Others responded with great efforts and energy, for instance the people and companies behind the vaccines.
Do we really have a general "spirit of the age" right now. I am skeptical. A major impact of the internet seems to be to increase variance. Arguably the same is true for racism, sexism, and many others isms, both good and bad. The variance is going up. The good get better, the bad get worse."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/interview-tyler-cowen-economist-and
17. "Basically, we play games all the time. We are speculative creatures, like to make bets, search for social cohesion and community. We also like cheat codes - and in a life where the world feels increasingly tilted towards “rich get richer”, you have to find other cheat codes in order to make the game work. And those cheat codes right now are $FAST MONEY$.
One of the reasons that the Stonks and Crypto Go Brrr narrative has stuck around for all this time (I think) is because people felt like they were playing a massive RPG. Gather your battalions, plan a bank run, maybe become millionaires, even billionaires. What the RPG fails to teach you is that there is no alpha in copy-paste, BUT you do get a little glimmer of hope."
https://kyla.substack.com/p/narratives-reflexivity-and-market
18. I guess we will find out soon enough whether Microstrategy BTC strategy works. Whether Saylor is crazy or crazy like the fox.
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/a-drunken-saylor
19. We are run by unserious, corrupt, ignorant idiots in the western world.
"American-made amino acids being sent at the lowest profitable cost possible to feed the swine, beef, and poultry industries of Mexico, Canada, and Brazil, all of whom are much friendlier to China with regard to finished meat exports than the United States is. It’s a canny strategic maneuver, and as is unfortunately typical of our political leadership, the short-term promise of profits, fundraising, and (perhaps) future jobs is a leash with which Chinese companies manipulate their American running dogs.
Here, then, is the new Chinese modus operandi: externalize their energy consumption into the US and exploit more readily-available raw materials for China’s benefit. Such a model drives the local prices of energy up long-term, another indirect subsidy paid by North Dakota’s taxpayers, while ensuring that China’s foreign partners have access to exported feed ingredients at the expense of the United States’ meat producers.
Even more, the location of Fufeng’s intended site is at best an extremely worrisome coincidence, given many viable alternatives that make more sense from a supply chain standpoint. Taken together, this absolutely follows the playbook of China’s ongoing expansions of the Belt and Road Initiative, and perhaps for the first time, represents a stealth implementation of the project on the United States’ own soil."
https://fortisanalysis.substack.com/p/belt-and-road-comes-to-the-heartland
20. Big fan of the OG global macro investor Jim Rogers. He inspired my global career.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xU5duCoSuzg
21. "Take an honest look at all the problems we face in society today. Racial disputes, increased mental illness, poverty, growing income inequality, infighting, the list goes on and on.
These are complex issues with many reasons, yet all of these problems are fundamentally rooted in, and exacerbated by, the rotting economic system.
This is in no way a grand conspiracy, and there is no Illuminati. These policies were made by people like you and me, and people who generally do care about improving their country. However, they got lost along the way. They traded ivy league educations for thinking that they could control a complex, chaotic system.
If you look at any complex system, the weather, for example. We can make as many models as we want. Use all the supercomputers in the world and still will not accurately predict the weather even a few days in the future. It’s the same with the economy.
The value of honor and truth are losing their hold. Ye, that doesn’t mean you have to sink down. Find other people to build long-term relationships with. Protect yourself from short-sighted people. Be aggressive and cut out the toxicity from your life. Be a lighthouse in the dark sea that the world is devolving into. Your light will save the few who choose to listen and help themselves. Your light will allow you to find other lighthouses. "
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/free-looks-token-and-the-greatest
22. Josh Wolfe and his team are some of the best Deeptech VCs on the planet.
"After all, the Covid-19 pandemic has put a torrent of cash in the wallets of investors and has pushed scientific breakthroughs to the forefront of their brains, leading to an incredible run at Lux, a relatively small player in the world of venture capital. In the past two years, its assets have doubled to $4 billion, with 25 of its portfolio companies creating almost $30 billion in value through mergers, acquisitions, or IPOs — including deals with 11 special-purpose acquisition companies."
https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1w8vbl5c7byww/The-Renaissance-Man-of-Venture-Capital
23. "Fed Coin would provide a fresh and transformative influx of dovishness at a time when the Fed is experiencing diminished returns on quantitative easing, tepid bank lending inhibits the velocity of money, and Congress is still a major barrier to full implementation of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT).
In essence, Fed Coin creates money from nothing (as opposed to bank reserves) and directs it to where it is “most needed” in the economy. The recipients can be induced to spend it or save it at the whim of the issuer. It circumvents the banks and even Congress itself. In short, it is the forest of free money trees progressives have dreamed about planting for decades. Gammon believes (and I tend to agree) that it will lead to massive inflation in short order, and not the transitory type."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/dystopia-coin
24. "However, there was one factor unnoticed that had a global impact but affected the Middle East the most.
Food Prices, more specifically the rising price of grain
Food, of course, is never the sole driver of instability or uprising. Corruption, a lack of democracy, ethnic tension are all known factors that may be critical, but food is often the difference between an unhappy but quiet population and one in revolt."
https://medium.com/something-about-everything/food-riots-and-the-arab-spring-4886e4c3604
25. I've come around to this view.
"ESG poses as a moral and financially savvy movement. In reality it is an immoral and financially ruinous movement that is destroying the free world's ability to produce low-cost, reliable energy. This prevents poor countries from developing and threatens America's security."
https://alexepstein.substack.com/p/the-esg-movement-is-anti-energy-anti
26. "But this is a new era of Warriors basketball. As of now, Curry and the Warriors have the best record in the NBA, and they've made it look both easy and fun. A youthful energy has been infused into the core of reliable stars.
The team's location in the Bay has provided some opportunities for Curry to build a life away from basketball. He's used his company SC30 Inc. to invest in tech startups like the travel platform Snaptravel. This entry into tech, he says, was first orchestrated by Andre Iguodala, during his first run with the Warriors.
Now Curry has his own media company, Unanimous, which, among other things, is responsible for producing the miniature-golf show Holey Moley. “There's so much opportunity [in Hollywood] because doors are open,” he says. “There's so much talent that can step into those rooms and deserve to be there, stay there, and have successful careers. And you can't really quantify it right now, but you can obviously have those checkpoints like, ‘Are we making a true impact?’ And, ‘How is that going to weave into everything that I do?’”
https://www.gq.com/story/stephen-curry-february-cover-profile
27. This is the reason so many people hate the rich in America, rules for thee but not for me. This is also how revolutions begin.
"In a country with true equal protection under the law, Kaplan would have been fired from his job and his activity referred to the authorities for further investigation. Instead, he was allowed to resign while defiantly claiming no wrongdoing. In accepting Kaplan’s resignation, Fed Chair Jerome Powell heaped praised on him, thereby tipping future investigations in Kaplan’s favor.
There are approximately 1.8 million people sitting in prison in America – don’t hold your breath waiting for Kaplan to join them. Prison is for the peasants, and Kaplan is no peasant.
Nor will they be joined by Nancy Pelosi, whose husband routinely speculates in companies that are impacted by her legislative decisions.
Not satisfied with mere good fortune, America’s elite are indulging in an orgy of staggering self-enrichment, the scale of which would make even Bacchus blush. As the embers of disgust take hold, one wonders how long until a full-on fire rages from below to spoil the party."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/let-them-eat-pizza
28. Lots of great nuggets here. Future of work and the Sovereign individual.
"Parents will adapt and relocate. And a byproduct of this type of jurisdictional arbitrage is that the housing market will stay hot.
But more broadly speaking – 2022 will mark a new wave of personal development. More alternative types of personal development with an emphasis on less standardization and more specialization.
People understand that they need to take personal responsibility for educating themselves to take advantage of changing times. The “guru” industry will have a renewed wave of products, courses, and information based products along the long tail of niche ideas, topics, and lifestyles. Expect a wave of solo entrepreneurs to emerge to fill this market need.
The bottom line is that people will pick and choose new skills to learn and incorporate into their lives in order to adapt and thrive in the digital age.
This will mark an educational renaissance."
https://dougantin.com/2022-predictions-what-comes-next
29. This book is worth reading. The Fourth Turning. But if you are lazy, listen to this interview.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y_YOyuz23go
30. Good reminder for tech & young people that there is a very physical part of technology you can't escape from.
https://www.wired.com/story/kazakhstan-cryptocurrency-mining-unrest-energy
31. "Animoca has been on an impressive tear since. Operating as both a publisher and, increasingly, a buyer of blockchain assets and tokens, its ballooning portfolio includes Sky Mavis, the developer of global sensation “Axie Infinity,” which closed on roughly $150 million in funding back in October at a $3 billion valuation, and the popular metaverse startup The Sandbox, a game where players can create and monetize in-game assets and that closed on $93 million in Series B funding back in November led by SoftBank."
https://techcrunch.com/2022/01/12/a-peek-into-web3-power-player-animoca-brands