Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Nov 20th, 2022
"It is not the strength of the body that counts, but the strength of the spirit."― J.R.R. Tolkien
Bullish on commodities as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmPvHYkHkuE
2. Great news in Ukraine!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbl1v_4vqbA
3. "In other words, despite all his WW2 throwback rhetoric, Putin is not Stalin, and the army currently getting blasted to bits on the banks of the Dnipro is most definitely not the Red Army.
Meanwhile, the country is having trouble producing new weapons (thanks in part to effective Western sanctions), and is pulling increasingly decrepit equipment from old Soviet storage facilities.
Where the USSR was an inefficient but vast manufacturing powerhouse, Putin’s Russia is a corrupt petrostate dependent on imports of foreign technology.
In other words, Russian military and economic weakness is now simply a fact of our world. This makes it simply impossible for Russia to serve as a “pole” in a multipolar world order, no matter how much anyone would like it to.
The world has simply progressed beyond the need for Russian power, and the faster all the remaining fence-sitters wake up to that fact, the better. Putin’s Russia should be treated as a dangerous, nuclear-armed, dysfunctional rogue state. The goal should be to contain it, and contain the damage from the chaos it causes, rather than to appease it by offering it some facsimile of the great-power respect we showed the old USSR."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-world-has-progressed-beyond-the
4. "In sum, the way the Russians have publicly announced their withdrawal with large forces still on the west bank, and the way they seem to be retreating into Kherson, does make it seem that they will try to extract a significant cost for the city. I’m not sure they can, and they could not hold it for long with the supply issues, but its something to watch in the coming days."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/kherson-update
5. "My general sense is that the FTX situation was caused by 3 Arrows Capital, which in turn revealed Sam Bankman-Fried and Alameda to be screwed in exactly the same way. Alameda had a $500 million loan with Voyager Digital, which caused them to lose enough money that Bankman-Fried transferred at least $4 billion of FTX funds into Alameda’s accounts, including FTT tokens and, somehow, shares in Robinhood, which SBF explained as “rotating a few FTX wallets.”
It will take a while to understand exactly how often and in what form Bankman-Fried used FTX funds as collateral, but I would be surprised if this were the only time, and I would imagine there are far more grizzly and egregious things to come out.
Bankman-Fried’s actions call into question every single cryptocurrency billionaire, every specious story about some plucky guy who “hit it big” on Bitcoin, and every muddy tale and rationalization of why someone is allegedly worth so much money now seems utterly disgraceful to believe.
https://ez.substack.com/p/sam-bankrun-fraud
6. "While I am supremely bullish on the prospects of crypto in 2023 (I know the date keeps slipping, but I reserve the right to change my mind in the face of market conditions), I believe we are about to trade to new lows as everyone wonders which crypto household name will go bankrupt next for lending money to FTX / Alameda.
Before I end this essay, let me be clear: centralized exchanges will always face these issues of mistrust on behalf of their customers. FTX was not the first high-profile exchange to fail and it won’t be the last. But throughout all this, blocks on the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and all other blockchains were still produced and verified. Decentralized money and finance have and will continue to survive and thrive in the face of the failures of centralized entities."
https://hackernoon.com/speechless
7. "Success can be our undoing when we’re promoted beyond our true capabilities. The Peter principle holds that because people get promoted on the basis of prior performance, they will inevitably rise to the level of their incompetence. Our brains make it easy for our ambition to exceed our ability: The Dunning-Kruger effectdescribes a demonstrated cognitive weakness, that the less we know about something, the more we overestimate our knowledge. That’s why stupid people, and people who make great cars and then buy media companies, are so dangerous.
The inevitable collapse of the powerful is a good thing, and I’m glad we live in a universe that embraces this as a governing principle. Absolute power and wealth concentration are incompatible with the innovation that characterizes humanity’s upward movement. The crashing to Earth can cause collateral damage, but it’s a creative destruction.
What is the lesson, what can be learned? Every day, no matter how successful we become, we need to earn our success. We need to be kind and appreciative; we need to surround ourselves with people who will push back on us and question our beliefs and actions. We need to demonstrate humility. You are never more susceptible to a huge mistake than right after a big win, when you begin to believe the falsehood that your success is all about you. Yes, you’re brilliant and hardworking, but greatness is in the agency of others, and timing (and other features of luck) is everything.
The flip side is less discussed but more important. When you’ve fucked up, when things are going poorly — a relationship ends, you have professional disappointment, or you’re in financial stress — forgive yourself. Mourn, then move on."
https://www.profgalloway.com/hubris
8. "Every founder, as a steward of capital, is responsible for where they decide to invest their investor's dollars as they build their business. I'm really hopeful that John Foley has learned his lesson from Peloton, and will, in fact, "show profitability and have a real focus on unit economics."
But VCs could do a better job about not just funding the known quantities, but identifying people most capable of allocating capital effectively. People who think differently, who have unique perspectives on building companies that people really need. The very best founders are, themselves, phenomenal capital allocators. The most valuable skill for a founder to have, as they scale their business, is the ability to best allocate dollars to the most valuable people, projects, and priorities.
In business building, capital allocation isn't just a VC's game. It IS the game."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/stewards-of-capital
9. So many useful idiots out there on the hard left and hard right. Taiwan is NOT China (thank goodness)
https://taipology.substack.com/p/taiwan-and-china-are-not-one-nation
10. "To paraphrase Buffett, the tide has gone out and a lot of nudity is being exposed. That doesn’t mean it’s a good use of time to sit on the beach and watch the spectacle.
In the game of compounding, the number one goal is stay in the game. So make sure your mind and body get proper recovery. Cultivate your resilience. Remember Soros: “When I don’t have to, I don’t work.” Integrate the lessons but absolve yourself from honest mistakes.
Because no matter how bad it could get, even Singer acknowledged that after getting something wrong the next step is to “shrug and try to make some money.”
Bring out your dead trades, your bad decisions, and set them on fire. Cleanse your palate. On we go."
https://neckar.substack.com/p/on-the-other-side-of-bubble-mountain
11. Crazy times from Crypto: always a good discussion. FTX and a good perspective on US midterm elections.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Id7cNqwqt1I
12. "Put another way, the cost of rebuilding Ukraine is directly related to the speed with which Kyiv can bring about a strategic decision on the battlefield and force Moscow to negotiate terms that secure the country’s territory. Here lies the paradox of the European “Marshall Plan for Ukraine” project: Each day that military assistance to Ukraine is not provided in sufficient numbers delays the day of Russia’s defeat, thereby raising the cost of bringing Ukrainian infrastructure, its industry, and its military back to a level that attracts private investment.
The Oct. 25 conference was important in that it conveyed the right message about Europe’s commitment to help Kyiv after the war. But the principal focal point must be military assistance, for if the Ukrainians fail to defeat the Russian military and regain their illegally seized national territory, this conference, despite all its ambitions, will be remembered as yet another EU project not grounded in reality."
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/11/ukraine-reconstruction-starts-now
13. "While Musk has all the right to implement processes and management structure as he sees fit, I find no excuse on how he is doing all of this. He offers no compassion or respect for employees who helped build Twitter, and employees feel that he is outright hostile towards them. Just the fact that in two weeks, he managed to send a single email to employees - and that email was an ultimatum on returning to the office effective immediately - summarizes his attitude towards employees of the company he bought. Elon has broken all unwritten - and may written - rules of how tech companies operate.
Tesla and SpaceX are both companies where hardware is arguably just as important - if not more important - part of their success than software. Elon Musk turned both companies into roaring successes with a similar management style which he’s bringing to Twitter. It will be educational to see how this same management style will work at Twitter, which is a pure software company, which does not have an inspiring mission or challenging problem space that could compare with Tesla or SpaceX."
https://blog.pragmaticengineer.com/cruel-changes-at-twitter
14. Good rundown on the FTX debacle. This will set the Crypto industry back a decade.
https://trungphan.substack.com/p/ftx-the-32b-implosion
15. Hard to argue against this. No wonder there is little faith or trust in our elites.
"They are travelling from all over the world to Egypt, will that not use tons of fossil fuels and emit massive amounts of C02? Yes, indeed!
In fact, they used a whopping 400 private jets to travel to the climate conference. You literally cannot make this up.
A source close to Egyptian aviation authorities told AFP that "more than 400 private jets landed in the past few days in Egypt".
Here the elite are all gathering to scheme how to reduce C02 emission by telling you that you must eat bugs and stop driving your car to save the planet, meanwhile they are all travelling on private jets. This is hypocrisy at the highest level."
https://petersweden.substack.com/p/climate-hypocrisy
16. Interesting approach here For SaaS Founders: Dolphin approach.
"Dolphins spend most of their life underwater, but they come up for air occasionally. This strategy works well for SaaS growth too.
SaaS companies can operate underwater (unprofitable) for long periods and still create substantial value. The vast majority of public SaaS businesses are unprofitable. However, there are substantial benefits to periodically coming up for air (operating profitably)."
https://www.maxio.com/blog/use-dolphin-strategy-for-saas-growth
17. More on the Dolphin Strategy for SaaS Growth.
https://davidcummings.org/2022/11/12/think-dolphin-strategy-for-more-measured-saas-growth
18. "Unfortunately, there is no greater return on investment in America today than bribing politicians and regulators. SBF and his network understand that reality. They spent the days before the collapse of FTX delivering massive resources into fixing the regulatory levers of power in D.C. to their liking.
During the crypto token bear market, Sam Bankman-Fried and his collaborators were trying to create a regulatory monopoly for their flagship FTX digital currency exchange, along with their massive venture capital empire, vacuuming up an incredible amount of equity in the digital token space.
Like most Ponzi schemes, things often great, at least from the outside looking in, while the Ponzi is operating. FTX was running Super Bowl ads, putting its name on stadiums, recruiting A list celebrities, actors, and athletes, all to prop up the operation."
https://dossier.substack.com/p/the-true-believer-how-sam-bankman
19. "Day by day, Ukrainian culture emerges, as Russian culture submerges. The sooner and more decisively Russia loses this war, the better it will be for the Russian future."
https://snyder.substack.com/p/of-sanctions-and-silencings
20. "Logistics means having a physical and mental plan for getting around in life; discipline means that you consistently put in the effort to be able to harvest the compound interest of your plans; and being open-minded means simply that you have developed the ability to accept two opposing ideas as both potentially being true."
https://fewerbetterthings.substack.com/p/travel-light-living-light-being-light
21. "Little about Caballero’s aesthetic screams world-class: The slight 83-year-old works out of a nondescript building in suburban Dallas. His office is outfitted with gray carpeting and drop ceiling tiles. He shares the building with a waste management company.
But the agent’s numbers don’t lie:
In 2020, he set a world record of 6.4k home sales, presiding as the listing agent over ~$2.46B of sales volume.
This year, he’s on pace to sell ~6k homes in Texas — a rate of ~16 sales every day.
In an industry teeming with whales, Caballero has become a near-mythical force — a real estate megalodon. And he’s done it without relying on mega-mansion sales and high-rolling clientele.
All he did was come up with an idea that made homebuilders’ lives slightly easier."
https://thehustle.co/how-americas-top-real-estate-agent-sells-16-homes-every-day
22. "If we allow this overreach when it comes to our finances, it’s only a matter of time before they begin to rationalise this kind of surveillance over other aspects of our lives. Give them an inch, they’ll take a mile.
Awareness of these matters is key. At the very least, I would encourage you to share newsletters like this, or news stories of current proposals in the Netherlands and the United States with others whenever you read them.
Financial privacy is our right. Don’t let that right be taken."
https://abundantia.substack.com/p/you-are-guilty
23. "This is why I am still long crypto. Despite its many flaws, I believe it has miraculous potential to improve our world. Self-sovereign money, smart contracts, and digital property rights are radical, revolutionary ideas that we are in the early innings of understanding and applying.
In a matter of decades, we may look back on the state’s rigid stranglehold on money as a quirky artifact, an obvious overreach.
Decentralized finance (DeFi) has its own quirks, but it has held up well, by comparison, showing that code is often less corruptible than people. We may see it bloom more fully in the coming years.
The second reason I am still long on crypto is the people. That may sound counterintuitive given the description of the casino we are currently in. Who wants to be surrounded by a swarm of gamblers?
While crypto may have plenty of them, it also has some of the most fiercely intelligent, driven, and gritty people I have met.
Though infuriated and disappointed by much of this week, I have also been reminded of these qualities. Founders, investors, and operators I speak to know their jobs have become much harder and are determined to continue, undaunted. These people believe (as I do) the movement is too important to abandon; it will emerge stronger."
https://www.generalist.com/briefing/the-casino-and-the-genie
24. "The lesson here is simple. If you buy computer coins, you do the following: 1) send immediately to cold storage and 2) if you need cash then you send it back to exchange and immediately sell. There is *some* risk here but the goal is to limit the *time* your assets sit on ANY exchange. This includes Binance, Coinbase etc.
More likely than not the contagion spreads. People who think this will be contained just to crypto are short sighted. Lots of rich people were buying homes, boats and cars because they had thousands or millions on FTX. When everything comes crashing down it will impact the broader economy."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/what-a-week-meta-exchange-scams-and
25. "In other words, I look out in the world and I don’t see a polycrisis; I see an emerging polysolution. The looming threats of climate change and authoritarian revanchism, combined with the shocks of Covid and inflation, have stirred both policymakers and businesses to action. And many of those actions will end up addressing multiple crises rather than just one.
I want to venture out on a limb here and say that this is not a coincidence. A lot of the buffer mechanisms I described above are political in nature, and they share the basic description of “human beings coming together in a crisis to address their collective problems”. During good times, human beings tend to seem irresolute and divided as pursue our individual goals and fight over the pie.
External shocks can bring the entire system crashing down, but they can also spur humans to get serious and start working together.
This is not to say that “hard times make strong men”, as the popular meme goes. It’s that we were “strong men” (and women, and nonbinary persons, etc.) all along, and we just didn’t have a reason to buckle down and get serious about solving society’s problems.
You know how in the fantasy stories, the Hero of Legend always mysteriously appears just in time to fight the Great Evil? It’s not luck, it’s selection bias. If the Hero of Legend appeared in normal times and there was no Great Evil around, they would just end up playing in a grunge band or coding a mobile app."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/against-polycrisis
26. "Now, the game is over for Bankman-Fried. Just weeks ago, he was a Democratic megadonor, one of the richest men who ever lived, the very face of what many in Washington and on Wall Street thought was the future of the economy: someone who could unlock the potential of cryptocurrencies and still walk with ease through the traditional world of money and power.
In less than a week, it was all annihilated, with questions of fraud and admissions of misappropriating his own customer’ funds exposing his empire to be a house of cards.
On Friday, FTX and his hedge fund, Alameda Research, filed for bankruptcy, and he resigned as CEO of the exchange. Government officials in the Bahamas, where his companies are based, seized what was left of their assets.
Investigators are reportedly probing his company and him, personally, to understand what happened — investigations that are likely to delve into whether or not the former wunderkind (an MIT physics major whose parents are both Stanford professors) defrauded his way into the most rarefied of positions. Sequoia, like other VCs who plowed money into the company, proactively marked down their stake to zero.
It’s not clear what’s going to happen with FTX or the people whose money is trapped on the platform. The repercussions are likely to be even deeper than the Terra blowup earlier this year, with companies he was about to rescue now likely out of luck. The company had apparently been expanding in sub-Saharan Africa, where bank access and resources that could help people get their money back are spotty.
Bankman-Fried has repeatedly apologized on Twitter. Ryne Miller, a lawyer for FTX who reportedly pushed back against its internal practices, didn’t want to talk when I reached him by phone and referred me to a press release. Bankman-Fried hasn’t really offered a convincing story of how it all collapsed so quickly, though what has emerged has been damning. Still, it’s not clear that Bankman-Fried views this as anything more than a game that was to be won or lost."
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/11/it-was-all-a-game-for-sam-bankman-fried.html
27. "Not much has changed in the 365 years since Palmstruch’s bank collapsed, except for the whole “jailing bankers” thing. As long as there have been custodians of money, maturity mismatches, and varying degrees of liquidity among asset classes, there have been confidence losses that catalyze runs.
Fraud is almost always found in the ashes of collapse (although history shows that outright fraud is usually a mid- to late-stage event). At some point in the boom-bust cycle, enterprises engaging in a little bit of chicanery to skirt through an otherwise manageable crisis find that once the culture accepts having stolen a penny, ethical incrementalism makes stealing nickels, dimes, and quarters all but inevitable.
The immunity from prison that fraudsters have thus far enjoyed in the currently bursting market bubble seems set to expire. In the past week, a fraud so brazen collapsed so spectacularly that even today’s batch of feckless regulators will be forced to act. Although the shockwaves from the rapid implosion of Alameda Research and FTX are still emanating from the Bahamas, a tsunami of consequences will barrel towards financial and political shorelines the world over in the weeks and months ahead. Investors are suddenly reacquainting themselves with the concept of counterparty risk (again!), and schemes that need a steady stream of fresh fiat to prop themselves up will soon drown in the contagion.
And while it was the traditional media that blindly paraded Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) to celebrity investor status, a combination of new citizen journalism and old-school short sellers played pivotal roles in exposing the scam. Let’s dig in."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/poof-of-work
28. Very good news in Kherson: Crimean peninsula next! #SlavaUkraini!
Be a Live Player: How to be Exceptional in Life
I learned an interesting new term called “Live Player” from brilliant thinker Samo Burj. Its defined as “A live player is a person or well-coordinated group of people that is able to do things they have not done before.” These are people who are dynamic, adaptive, very responsive and constantly learning. This is in contrast to Dead Players: “A dead player is a person or group of people that is working off a script, incapable of doing new things.”
You can find more in this interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ik5AxJSjcjI & also here: https://medium.com/@samo.burja/live-versus-dead-players-2b24f6e9eae2
What determines a Live Player?
“What are signs that a player is alive? One strong sign is a player doing things outside of their expected domain — in a new, unexpected domain — which indicates that they can figure out new things for themselves.
Another sign of a live player is exceptional individuals gravitating towards them. Such individuals tend to be good at assessing others, and will tend to seek out others who are also exceptional. If they cluster around a person or group, there is something exceptional about that person or group. Successfully reverse-engineering an attack is another, albeit weak, sign of a live player. Those who can make novel moves will also tend to be able to reverse-engineer moves, but those who can reverse-engineer moves often lack the ability to create novel ones.”
Some live examples of “Live Players” are: Tom Ford, Elon Musk, Madonna, Napoleon, Jeff Bezos & Tim Ferriss.
Individuals who are capable of great change in their lives and careers, adaptive as hell and greatly impactful in the world.
This concept is so personally fascinating to me. I think about many of the people I look up to and many of them fit this characterization of a live player. When I think of the people I detest, they all seem to fit the “Dead Player” characterization. These would include many of the bureaucrats in government, the stodgy yet corrupt politicians all over the world, Big company people and elitists in academia and across the media establishment, whose gross incompetence came to the fore during the 2020-2021 pandemic.
I find that based on my career, I’ve unintentionally pursued the “Live Player” life, albeit with much less impact & success than many of the very gifted individuals previously listed. But still, this style of living through constant learning and adapting is why I enjoy my life so much (most of the time).
So the point is: be a “Live player.” We need you! All innovation and progress relies on this. As Samo Burj states correctly: “Societies with few live players will stagnate; societies with many live players will develop and adapt.
Knowing When to Quit: Sometimes You Have to Move On
One of my favorite movies is “You’ve Got Mail” starring Meg Ryan as a small children’s bookstore shopkeeper & Tom Hanks as her big chain bookstore businessman & nemesis. It’s such a classic movie showing the glory of New York City in all its 4 seasons. It’s also a great story full of great characters.
There is this scene when the character Meg Ryan plays decides she needs to close up her store because she can’t stay in business any longer due to the bruising competition. Her older & wiser friend tells her:
“Closing the store is the brave thing to do. You are daring to imagine that you could have a different life.
Oh I know it doesn’t feel like that. You feel like a big fat failure now. But you are not. You are marching into the great unknown with nothing.”
There is something to this. A brand new start. A blank canvas to paint on. A blank piece of paper to start over.
I’ve had so many conversations with startup founders talking about when to quit and shut down the company. Startups are really really hard & most usually don’t work out. It can be challenging and difficult to know when or whether to do so. To quit. You can’t think straight and usually need an outsider to help you look at the situation coldly. To talk through it.
The reason for this is “sunk costs fallacy”: this is when you continue with the behavior or in an initiative or project as a result of previously invested resources. Source: https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/the-sunk-cost-fallacy
Sunk costs are hard to overcome especially when you have spent so much of your own time, money and life into something. This is the same with marriage and long romantic relationships too.
But there comes to a point when things aren’t getting better. Where there is limited or no progress despite your efforts. Or maybe it’s getting worse. Sometimes things just don’t work out for whatever reason. Timing. Business model doesn’t work. Trends moving against you. Or maybe you are just plain tired and exhausted.
Change is hard. But it’s better to go out on your own terms. It’s okay to quit. If you have done your best and given your all, then you should have no regret. If you are a startup founder, make sure you take care of your employees. Be as generous with severance as possible, be a good reference for them and make whatever intros you can. Transition your customers well too. Die with Honor as they say.
Sometimes there are circumstances where it’s better to move on. Take the lessons you learned, treasure the good memories and step bravely into your new future.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Nov 13th, 2022
"Courage isn't having the strength to go on – it is going on when you don't have strength."― Napoleon Bonaparte
Important video on a possible future war with China. They are the enemy, like it or not.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-q_GktDcqX4
2. If you are a geopolitical geek like me, this is a lively and fascinating discussion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mihDhlwg96w
3. "As with bankruptcy, the sell-off happened gradually, then suddenly. Last week was a turning point. Amazon, Google, Meta, and Snap all missed big on earnings. The common theme? Ads. Or lack thereof. We knew the Mad Men era had come to an end; we weren’t expecting the end of Ad Men.
But let’s be honest, advertising sucks. Cable ads provide a glimpse into what it’s like to have restless leg syndrome, and digital ads, while more relevant, are carbon — the noxious byproduct of converting attention into shareholder value via algorithms that bring out the worst in the species. I’ll say it again, advertising sucks."
https://www.profgalloway.com/elephants-in-the-room
4. "Technology adoption turns hyperbolic during a recession or any major event promoting budget cuts, layoffs, or dramatic changes in the market. Covid-19 was a good example of what this looks like.
So much of the company prospecting process can be eliminated due to automation.
They also clean their CRM data so if anyone changes jobs or changes an email/phone number it gets automatically updated in the CRM. This makes the outreach process more effective due to not wasting time on bad info.
Simple. It’s cheaper to use sales technology than it is to hire more salespeople. When you use sales technology you multiply your sales efforts and decrease management overhead. If you can manage sales reps via software instead of a sales manager why would you hire a sales manager? And if you can get the 2x more results from the current reps you have there’s no need to hire more reps.
The issue is companies don’t know how to use sales tech!"
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/the-future-of-sales-and-what-it-means
5. "Let’s accept layoffs as part and parcel of business cycles, amongst many other smart-sounding external factors and mismanagement despite best intentions. It is what it is. They happen! Life is unfair.
What grinds my gears is leadership not owning their difficult decision of laying people off. Again, I don’t consider them bad people for laying off! I do not believe they enjoy doing them.
But, let's fault them if and when they fail to own the decision and take the necessary steps to minimize the pain, confusion, and uncertainty that inevitably flow from layoffs. The most effective levers for doing so are appropriate communication and post-layoff support to the extent a company’s financial situation allows them to."
https://sarharibhakti.substack.com/p/a-rant-on-layoffs-from-someone-who
6. "Long story short: if you’re ever expecting to retire, you’ll need to make preparations to take care of this yourself. Nobody else will—especially your government, despite their promises.
So, what’s a person to do? Well, I can’t tell you how you should prepare. That’s not my place, especially considering our unique individual circumstances.
But for me, setting aside at least 10% of my monthly income (though ideally 20%) to be invested into hard appreciating assets like real estate, precious metals, or even commodities is a good start. And if the idea of setting aside up to a fifth of your income for future safekeeping seems like an impossibility, then it may be time to increase your income or earning ability in whatever way you can, as soon as you can.
Just remember: the sands of time wait for none of us."
https://abundantia.substack.com/p/fear-the-reaper
7. "So overall the acquisition of equipment has (as it always does) played a major role in determining the war so far. Russian issues in this area and Ukrainian successes have basically helped change what was a war of Russian offensive to Ukrainian counteroffensive. Both sides, however, have major vulnerabilities.
The Russians need to be able to find ways to either produce or acquire equipment to make up for their losses while the Ukrainians need to make sure that their NATO supporters continue on with their aid programs. The real canary in the coal mine here is what happens with the US mid-term elections."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/long-form-thoughts-on-the-weekend
8. "Intuitively, it makes sense that more entrepreneurial activity in a community is a good thing. Only, it’s important to go up a level to think about why a larger, broader, and deeper startup scene helps the region, especially in the context of a long, multi-decade horizon."
https://davidcummings.org/2022/11/05/why-grow-the-startup-community
9. "Please do not lose your income as layoffs will continue through Q1. As a rule of thumb the cuts come in October/November and then February/March for most industries.
This is due to budget setting as mentioned many times here to start the year and Feb/March is another round if they don’t see enough “natural attrition”. Which means people leaving/quitting/retiring etc.
If you want an idea of what the next 12 months will look like, we suggest watching some old Rocky movies. The quiet quitting trend is over."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/ftx-and-cz-marry-the-home-guarantee
10. "To get to simplicity I have to push through distractions, complexity, and lots of hard work but I know it’s worth the effort. I have to reduce everything I’m learning down to its essence to leap forward.
Simplicity is simply mastery, the state of mind and being when you can express yourself in any medium with fluidity, clarity, and excellence, making it seem so easy that anyone can do it without any effort."
https://fewerbetterthings.substack.com/p/simplicity-is-hard-work
11. This is a worthwhile panel to listen to as a VC.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REFAe7qhb74
12. Detroit & Houston are well positioned for the future. In fact, US already well positioned as we re-industrialize.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GgxbBzQfQk
13. Pretty important discussion here on energy and geopolitics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BwIlWq3Isxc
14. "But when researchers expanded their definition of aggression to include verbal aggression and indirect aggression (rumor spreading, gossiping, ostracism, and friendship termination) they found that girls score higher on indirect aggression and no sex differences in verbal aggression.
The most common reasons people give for their most recent act of aggression are threats to social status and reputational concerns."
https://robkhenderson.substack.com/p/the-male-warrior-hypothesis
15. This was a masterclass on Venture investing from one of the best leading the best. So many gems of wisdom.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIL2FUm2WIM
16. "You always say yes to more responsibility and a promotion. The reasoning is quite simple. If you get promoted your manager and his manager have to “admit” it was a mistake.
This is unlikely. If you get promoted you usually have about a year or so to show results. The only way you get promoted then fired in a month is if there are major management changes in the org chart. Per usual, there are always “exceptions”. Example: never take a promotion to a non-revenue generating role. Stay in the profit centers.
90% of the time? There is no way your boss or the boss of your boss is going to walk up to Senior Management and say “Hey i made a huge mistake already! It has been 3 weeks!”."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/some-fast-career-advice-and-museums
17. "Since 1945 all nuclear powers have refrained from using nuclear weapons because none of them have been presented with an existential military threat against there existence. If Russia were to break that taboo in a war of conquest, it could have dramatic impact on nuclear non-proliferation.
If states around the world see that nuclear weapons can now be used to compel their capitulation to conquest, what would stop Taiwan and Japan, for instance, from developing their own nuclear deterrent. That would be probably the worst possible development from a Chinese perspective.
Likewise, if China believes this era represents that dawn of a new Chinese age, they cant be wild about the prospect of a nuclear weapons use leading to global instability.
So all in all, China probably represents a huge break on any Russian use of nuclear weapons, and the Chinese statement today is real confirmation of that."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/thoughts-on-the-nuclear-issue-and
18. Hmmm......
"Musk has accidentally created a public hearing on his reputational and professional worth, where we now will see if he is a great CEO or a rich guy who kept winning until he didn’t. The public will now watch and judge him in real time as he makes the decisions that most CEOs get to make behind closed doors, in part because he can’t help but announce them personally. He cannot post less, because it will show a lack of attachment to the massive purchase he made, and if he posts more, he will be subject to the hyper-attention that made him famous."
https://ez.substack.com/p/musks-kobayashi-maru
19. "My way of achieving this goal is to scale back on consumption; only buying well made things that last and that I frequently use. This has allowed me to both work less on meaningless projects, having higher quality experiences, and enjoying a nomadic lifestyle. Your dream might be different but the process is the same.
Today we are exposed to an infinite amount of ideas, things, and people via the Internet. And as much as I love this technology, it’s important to understand how it really works and to create your own filters and boundaries for how you use it."
https://fewerbetterthings.substack.com/p/a-new-direction-back-to-the-future
20. "It’s harder and harder to break those stars today. That’s why labels offer more favorable contracts to keep those artist who are already proven. It’s also why they are eager to find the next superstars from non-English speaking markets that are less saturated. It’s all connected.
This shift is bigger than music. It’s happening in Hollywood. It’s happening in all forms of content and media. But since music is often first to get disrupted, there’s a larger disconnect between expectations and reality.
There are many artists sold on the belief that they can be the next Kendrick Lamar. The challenge today is that even if they have K.dot’s talent and adapt his playbook for today’s era, that merely gives them a chance of success. TikTok algorithms can have artists think that those millions of views on a viral post will translate to millions of concert tickets sold.
The power laws of music are stronger than they are in any other form of entertainment. The platforms, superstars, niche stars, and the companies they work with have all benefited. It’s everyone else that has to catch up."
https://trapital.co/2022/11/07/who-wins-when-there-are-too-many-songs
21. This explains the bizarre German foreign and domestic policy we see.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFAnTkKUYj0
22. "As leaders, we would do well to welcome our own humanity and at times even our own frailty. We would do well to invite the humanity of those we seek to lead.
As investors, we would do well to check in with our portfolio CEOs as humans, not simply as operators.
You are not a robot. Neither was Jobs. And that, my friend, is wonderful if inconvenient news."
https://www.mattmunson.me/self-criticism
23. "We think of war as a battleground involving tanks, troops, ships, and planes. But technology has made it possible for a new battleground involving DNA, cells, organs, and scientists in labs.
The human body is the battleground in an era of hybrid biogenetic warfare. We have a situation now where China is accusing the US of engaging in such warfare. The US is fearing that China might engage in such warfare."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/pishi-and-porcupine
24. This seems more relevant than ever.
"If you’re going through a rough situation, my advice is stay strong, stay data-driven, leverage the resources around you, and demand the best of your team. Focus on first diagnosing the problem and then on building and attaining a steady-state funnel model to get things back on track.
It may feel like you’re going through hell, but remember, as Winston Churchill famously said, “if you’re going through hell, keep going.”
https://kellblog.com/2022/11/06/how-to-fix-a-broken-go-to-market-motion-using-a-steady-state-funnel
25. This is pretty damn surprising.
Maybe not, Considering how tumultuous the crypto space has been this year.
https://techcrunch.com/2022/11/08/binance-signs-letter-of-intent-to-acquire-ftx
26. This is actually a very good idea from a VC fund.
"Her bet? At least 0.1% to 1% of the thousands of employees impacted by tech layoffs this year could become incredible founders."
27. I think everyone is still shocked here.
"The rapid disintegration of Bankman-Fried’s crypto empire will likely unravel further VC investors’ confidence in blockchain startups, which attracted a frenzy of investor interest last year. And Bankman-Fried was one of the most successful fundraisers."
28. "When journalists have suspicions about a business, they like to call it a “house of cards.” It’s a vivid analogy that basically means “We can’t tell you what is wrong with the business, but something is.” It honestly irks me when people throw the expression around without doing the work to explain what’s happening, but it is also important to follow one’s instincts.
And for a while now, a lot of people have had a funny feeling about crypto and specifically about FTX, one of the world’s most popular places to buy and sell cryptocurrencies.
Specifically, the thing that didn’t smell right was FTX’s relationship with crypto trading fund Alameda Research, which Bankman-Fried also controlled.
It seemed icky that one of the world’s largest brokers of crypto currency was so close to one of the world’s largest buyers of crypto currencies. Some wondered about that broker’s impartiality given their relationship. But that’s just how crypto works, people said. And who doesn’t want to bet on a young wunderkind? That was a part Bankman-Fried played so well.
No one really asked the tough questions about the relationship, apparently not even the world’s most renowned investors, including Sequoia Capital, SoftBank and Paradigm, which collectively poured hundreds of millions into FTX, valuing the three-year-old company at more than $32 billion."
29. "First, the economic and military dominance of the Western world is not nearly as overwhelming as it was one hundred years ago, or even fifty years ago.
That dominance is being eroded by the growth of other parts of the world organized according to different principles, and obviously so by China. So if the performance of the liberal capitalist model is inferior to another model, then perhaps democratic liberal capitalism is not the best way to organize the mankind everywhere?
Second, in responding to the challenges of globalization and the hollowing out of the domestic middle classes, a significant part of the Western public opinion shifts to populism, nationalism etc. all the forces that a successful liberal capitalist model should make sure remain marginal. But they are no longer so.
Third, Danny raises the issue: should not our thinking about what is the best way to organize economic and political life be influenced not only by who is doing it most successfully but also by where the majority of the world population lives? It is not simply an arithmetical point. It comes from requiring that the modes of successful life that many people experience do have a greater empirical validity than the ways of successful life experienced by smaller groups of people."
https://branko2f7.substack.com/p/reframing-the-world
30. "From a US security perspective its just a no brainer to arm the Ukrainians to take out Russia, and Iranian, military capability. The best bang for buck, quite literally, for the US, and putting zero US lives in danger."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/midterms-dont-change-the-calculus
31. "Now, following a series of missteps — that’s the best-case scenario — FTX didn’t just lose its rich valuation. According to the WSJ, FTX founder and CEO Sam Bankman-Fried told investors today that he needed emergency funding to cover a shortfall of up to $8 billion due to withdrawal requests received in recent days. Reportedly, he has been seeking a mixture of debt and equity.
It’s not surprising that Sequoia decided instead to write off its roughly $210 million investment. Presumably, others of FTX’s investors — including BlackRock, Tiger Global, Insight Partners, and Paradigm — are shooting out their own communications to limited partners about making the same decision.
(The Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board, which invested directly in FTX, has a much broader base of shareholders who may be wondering about their retirement savings, even while their pensions are guaranteed.)"
https://techcrunch.com/2022/11/09/sequoia-capital-marks-its-ftx-investment-down-to-zero-dollars
32. "Russia’s strategy is about suffering: for people, to diminish morale and the population’s support for Ukraine’s war effort; and for the economy, to crush it so that Ukraine can’t meet the needs of its people and is even more reliant on the West — a West that is also dealing with cost of living, inflation, and energy crises as winter approaches.
The strategy is cruel, but, as experts pointed out, so far it has failed to do anything more than harden attitudes against Russia. And it has not, at all, boosted Russia’s fortunes on the battlefield. “Despite that massive wave of terrorist attacks that [Putin] just recently did, he’s still losing ground,” Spencer said.
Russia retreating from the city of Kherson may also help make Ukraine’s case that its strategy of retaking Ukrainian territory and expelling Russia is the right course. As Menon said, “it’s a big morale boost,” even as Russian and Ukrainian troops face fiercer and more critical battles in the east.
It will likely also bolster Ukraine’s case to the West that it can possibly win those battles if it can just get more Western military support, including advanced weapons and air defense systems to protect against Russian barrages targeting infrastructure. “They also have a very strong card to play, which is: you’re supplying us — but we’re delivering, we’re showing we’re capable of winning,” Menon said."
https://www.vox.com/world/2022/11/9/23449707/kherson-russia-retreat-ukraine-war
33. Great Discussion about FTX from the NIA guys.
The Path to Progress, Fulfillment & Fun: Taking Risks
No risk, no reward.
This is the rule in business, in investing and in relationships. All the wonderful things that make life special.
Growing up as the eldest son in a Taiwanese immigrant family, I’m as conservative as they come. The regular path was what was drummed into me. Get good grades in school (that did not quite happen), get a good safe job at an established company or organization. Safe but boring.
But when I turned 22 I left Canada in search of adventure, summer school in England, backpacking in Europe. Then it was off to Asia for a 2 year stint, before ending up in San Francisco.
I look back at all the best things that happened to me. Backpacking in Europe and meeting some fascinating people, living in Taiwan and meeting my wife which led to my wonderful daughter Amber. A fulfilling career in a fast growing startup, an international career at Yahoo! And now a venture capital investor & sometime newsletter writer. None of which would have happened without taking some risk, a bit of luck and lots of hard work. And I should add, all off the beaten paths of my peer group and family expectations at that time.
Life is about taking chances. Not stupid jump off the Golden Gate Bridge drunk without a parachute risk. But calculated risks.
In venture capital and Angel investing it’s called Asymmetric risks. Ones with unfathomable payoffs but with the potential loss of only what you put in.
And this is not the choice of joining Goldman Sachs over McKinsey. That’s not really a risk frankly. Real risk is joining a no name underfunded technology or biotech startup that may die in a few months but has the chance to dramatically improve how we live. That’s true risk.
You never know where the random meeting, call or investment will take you. It could lead to life changing wealth, lifelong friendships, a life partner or a nugget of insight that will change how you view the world.
There is this scene in Nolan’s classic sci-fi movie “Inception”, where the Japanese industrialist says to the protagonist: “So do you want to take a leap of faith….or become an old man filled with regret… waiting to die alone.”
An interesting and fulfilling life requires taking risks. Progress in life and the world requires taking risks. It requires a leap of faith. Many of them, all the time on a regular basis. Be brave and take action. You may be surprised by where life takes you….in a good way.
Easy Come, Easy Go: Understanding the Universal Law of Money & Success
There has been so much wealth created in the last few years in tech and crypto. I’d go even further that in tech we’ve had a crazy run over the last 13-14 years. But now we are seeing the other side of this boom. The painful bust. Lots of bad habits to unlearn.
In some ways it’s like winning a lottery ticket. Many of these folks end up losing the money and end up poorer than they started with. I admit the same thing happened to me, i’ve been pretty stupid with the amount of money I’ve made and wasted.
In some ways, the same thing happens to super wealthy people. If you do very well, wealth sometimes hides you from the reality of the market. You have resources to fulfill and dull all your senses.
This is like the money law of “High School Hero” Syndrome. The people who did well in high school like being the captain of the football team & class valedictorian etc etc, usually don’t do well in University or even in life in general, because they peaked & stopped learning. We all know people like this.
It’s like a curse to have a lot of success too early in life. You end up drawing the wrong conclusions. Lesson from Carol Dweick, that you develop the wrong mindset. If you are told you are successful because you are smart, you stop taking risks as you don’t want to make mistakes that will threaten that image in your brain.
This causes you to stop growing. You stop learning. This is death as an investor, and death as an individual in our ultra competitive and rapidly changing world.
The people who are able to keep their money are ones who earned it through hardship and having gone through lots of ups and downs in life. There are folks we see as “overnight successes”, but if you dig a bit deeper you can see how long it really took. Usually 10-20 years at least. Any bigtime Hollywood star you know, did a crazy number of casting calls and suffered through a lot of rejection before hitting it big. The founder of Instacart, that was his 8 or 9th startup. Many of the Unicorns in my portfolio struggled for 7-8 years before they got there.
The big success stories we will hear about in 5 to 10 years are toiling in obscurity right now.
Good stuff takes time. There is no way around it. So be ambitious, be aggressive but also be patient. Be resilient and stay in the game. Long term thinking is the only way to win and keep it.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Nov 6th, 2022
"I learned that courage was not the absence of fear, but the triumph over it. The brave man is not he who does not feel afraid, but he who conquers that fear."― Nelson Mandela
I love these historical recaps.
https://twitter.com/LandsknechtPike/status/1585917457101099008
2. "With fewer loose spending venture capitalists running around, startups will face fewer competitors. That means they can spend less money fighting with each other and raise fewer dilutive funding rounds.
“The better investments will be made in the next five years or 10 years,” Khosla said.
During our conversation, Khosla was already predicting that stumbling tech giants would be a boon for startups — before Facebook and Amazon’s stocks fell this week.
“There’s another phenomenon that happens in a time like this: Google’s not hiring. Facebook’s not hiring. People are clamping down,” Khosla says. “Guess what happens to their most advanced projects? They go. And guess who are the best people in any large company? The best people are working on the most advanced projects. They are the ones who want to do visionary things. They’re the fodder entrepreneur for venture capitalists. So I think many more of the best people — not because they’re not getting paid huge raises in compensation — but because they’re working on less interesting projects — will leave to follow their vision.”
He concluded, “We will have fewer startups, but many more higher quality startups.”
https://www.newcomer.co/p/vinod-khosla-isnt-quiet-quitting
3. Great conversation. They excel when it comes to discussion on the tech industry and tech giants.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-bIpJdaCnM
4. "Performance is pretending for the masses, practice is playing for ourselves. Once I discovered this little secret, I became free to focus my own time, attention, and creative energy on things that matters to me and maybe no-one else."
https://fewerbetterthings.substack.com/p/changing-perspective-changes-everything
5. "It feels as if I’m meeting a man putting himself back together, and not quite sure how all the parts fit. He is still reeling from grief, while also embracing a new life, one that includes a surprise career change."
6. "VC investment business model is similar to the book publishing and movie industries — it is dominated by betting on “blockbusters” and the power law. A few stars in the portfolio will create the vast majority of your returns, while the rest of the portfolio loses money. This is why all of these industries focus investments on their winners and add more follow-on investments to those that show signs of becoming blockbusters, while cutting their losses on all other investments."
https://yrjo.medium.com/analogies-v-3-f0a6f607030e
7. "Yes, success could be measured as revenue, status, or scale, but that’s not what success looks like to me. Suddenly, I’d have to transform from a writer to a manager, and that’s not at all what gives me pleasure in this life.
So I urge you to ask yourself the question: What are you working so hard for right now? What does your ultimate happiness look like? If you look at your trajectory, are you just filling the time until you reach that destination — or can you find a more direct route to the destination by making it your life’s work today?
Remember, we’re all investors in this life. No, I’m not talking about money. I’m talking about time. As the quote goes: “Time is a currency you can only spend once, so be careful how you spend it.”
https://theprofile.substack.com/p/the-profile-kanye-wests-private-academy-b1b
8. "You might know these devices as Ouija boards. But Ouija is a brand, like Kleenex or Tupperware. And at one point in time, it was a multimillion-dollar business.
“Think of Coke and Pepsi. Coke is probably number one, Pepsi is number two. There is no number two for the Ouija board,” the museum’s owner, John Kozik, told The Hustle.
When Kozik points out other brands in the collection, guests often assume they won’t work as well because they’re not “official,” as though ghosts harbor a brand-name preference.
This is the story of how, thanks to the combined forces of spiritualism and capitalism, Ouija became the go-to for communing with the dead."
https://thehustle.co/the-strange-business-history-of-the-ouija-board
9. "Of all the frankly disturbing predictions of how technology might be used to limit our individual freedoms in the near future, it’s CBDCs that worry me the most. Simply because when those in power have the ability to coerce, manipulate, or force people’s actions by controlling their ability to use money—our basic means for survival in today’s world—they would gain the godlike ability to engineer the behaviour of an entire population.
Or as former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger aptly put it:
“Who controls money can control the world.”
https://abundantia.substack.com/p/control-the-world
10. For SaaS Founders and investors everywhere. Lots of solid data points.
https://kellblog.com/2022/10/30/key-takeaways-from-the-2022-keybanc-saas-metrics-survey
11. Some good frameworks and thoughts in investing here. Whatever you think of Chamath there is much to learn. (I like his perspective)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXV2Zqke5MM
12. So much wisdom from one of the greats of VC.
"The collective venture community needs to get its head around the new reality as fast as possible. The more people see what’s really going on, the quicker that will happen. In ’09, the response to the downturn was pretty swift. But you had the benefit that ’01 was only seven or eight years in the rearview mirror. While there’s still some institutional memory around the Valley, it’s been a very long time since 2009.
I try to convey that they need to get in front of this. In a couple meetings, I’ve heard an owner or founder say, “Well, you know, we just need to buckle down until things get back to where they were.” And I’m, like, “No, the fantasy was the past five years.”
What we’re in now may just be normal, right? This may be average. And that’s very hard for people. It’s especially hard for a founder.
Everybody says, “We’re getting to the bone.” Everyone says that. And I know it’s a touchy subject because people are losing their jobs. But companies—even small start-ups—are way more resilient than people realize. It’s the norm that you cut 30 percent, and everything keeps going. You don’t lose all your customers. And some people find, “Oh, wait, we’re moving a little faster.” Sometimes things get better. I mean, yes, eventually some companies go bankrupt. But I’ve never seen someone do too much. You can always hire back. I think 95 percent of the time, the failure is the other way, of not doing enough."
13. "Lastly, the fourth takeaway is that being exposed to a variety of fields, perspectives, and people can be an incredible competitive advantage. As I mentioned in the book notes for Robert Greene’s Mastery, my wife and I are constantly talking about how to expose our daughter to as many ideas as possible. It feels dumb that parents think this way for their children, but we lose sight of the importance for ourselves as we get older. We are all children at heart."
https://pomp.substack.com/p/curiosity-can-change-your-life
14. "As I look at the distance between now and my date of birth, I realize I’m closer to the end than to the beginning. The good news is we can all push the ending farther away if we try. We just need good information (check) and to do the work.
From what I hear, immortality can get a bit lonely, so keep the above in mind when preparing food for those you love — or share this post with them.
Eat right, live longer and feel better."
https://bakadesuyo.com/2022/10/nutrition
15. For those who are interested in Micro-Private Equity this is an amazing conversation. Codie is the best.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrgusUWqTTY&t=51s
16. Taiwan is awesome and special. Glad people are slowly discovering its importance.
"Culturally, Taiwan is very much not China, and this becomes apparent as soon as you leave the airport. The food — and food is Taiwan’s national pastime — is obviously Chinese-derived, but is really its own thing. It blends all the regional cuisines of China into a mishmash, because the Nationalists came from everywhere, and it adds touches from Japan, but it also has plenty of the purely original flourishes that emerge from any rich consumerist society.
Milk tea is everywhere, as you might expect, though tastes have moved beyond the classic boba formula. The urban layout of Taipei, the signage and architecture and design, are definitely not Chinese, nor are they Japanese; they’re something new and recently made. Almost two years ago I wrote that “Taiwan is a civilization”, and I stand by that formulation.
Why should a peaceful, prosperous, gentle country like Taiwan be forced to prepare for the threat of invasion and bloodshed? There is no principle of human morality or justice that says they should have to. Instead, it’s purely the law of the jungle; there are predators in this world, and they will conquer what they can until they are stopped.
China’s leaders want to conquer Taiwan not just because they want to rival the old Qing dynasty in territorial extent, but because Taiwan represents something to them that they can’t abide — an alternative blueprint for Asia. Perhaps even more than Japan or South Korea, Taiwan shows people in China and its satellite states what they’re missing — a way of life where people can just be themselves, instead of living in service to a grand empire."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/eleven-days-in-taiwan
17. "What counts at the level of Grand Strategy are two sets of fundamentals. First is Mass: population, economy, technology. Then Mass x Cohesion = power. With no cohesion, there is no strength at all, even with a lot of Mass. Second is what a country has abroad: allies, neutrals, enemies.
As for its economy, Russia, though not a rich country, is entirely self-sufficient in food and energy. This is not true of most countries. The same G-7 sanctions that could not stop Russia could stop Xi Jinping’s China, which must choose between fighting wars and eating protein. Yes, more than a year of rice reserves and some months of frozen pork can be stored, but not the immense amounts of soya beans China imports to feed animals for milk, eggs and meat.
We all saw that Russia is weak in allies, because instead of attracting neutrals to its side, it frightened them into joining Nato or at least to remain neutral. Russia is also weak in allies because, even though it has a navy, it is not a maritime power."
https://unherd.com/2022/11/vladimir-putins-failed-strategy
18. "You could argue that Elon controlling Twitter acts as off-balance sheet marketing for Tesla, SpaceX, and every other company he builds. Auto makers typically spend 2-3% of revenue on marketing. Ford, GM, Hyundai, Subaru, Kia, and Ferrari spent a combined $10 billion on advertising in 2021. Mercedes-Benz, Renault (Renault, Nissan), and Stellantis (Fiat, Chrysler, Peugeot) don't break out advertising expenses, but reported $22.8 billion in Selling, General, & Administrative (SG&A) expenses in 2021.
As a comp for SpaceX, Boeing paid $2.9 billion in SG&A expenses in 2021, or 4.7% of its revenue. For Tesla, that 2-3% of revenue would come out to $1-2 billion in marketing expenses. That's close to the estimated interest expense due annually on the debt financing the Twitter acquisition
Elon stands to benefit whether or not he can actually improve Twitter's underlying business. Owning Twitter ensures marketing benefits to Elon's other businesses. And Twitter's core product is a top of funnel for Elon to build other consumer products over time. Elon may look to China as an example, where the largest social platforms not only keep people in touch with friends and entertain them with videos, but also enable payments, food delivery, travel bookings, and hundreds of billions in ecommerce transactions.
Early product experiments are just the start. Most will probably fail. In the words of Rohit Krishnan on Twitter, "I have a feeling this is gonna be a Masterclass on speedrunning through things other folks have done and figured out for the first few weeks / months, which is both the benefit and drawback of first principles [everything]."
https://www.thespl.it/p/elons-twitter
19. "Traveling has become an accelerator where most distractions loose their pull. It’s only the basics, the everyday essentials that matters, and that’s when surviving also means thriving.
In a world where everything has become easy, the hard stuff is where the real value lies. Focus on the hard and life becomes easier and much more rewarding."
https://fewerbetterthings.substack.com/p/traveling-is-no-vacation
20. "So here we are. Increasingly advanced unmanned boats packed with explosives will be yet another threat to contend with. Everyone is watching the conflict in Ukraine very closely, especially potentially nefarious actors including China, Iran, and North Korea. Take the latter for instance. They could unleash hundreds of similar boats — even ones that need no communications and go after static targets — onto targets in South Korea at the opening of the conflict, which already features a conventional war plan that works to achieve ultimate chaos above all else.
The fact is that these are weapon systems that can relatively easily achieve considerable range and will have the command and control architecture to support them. As such, they are growing into the realm of regional capabilities."
21. This is a great interview. Lots of great thoughts on entrepreneurship.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GMv3hgIE-V4
22. "Marooney, a GP at Coatue, says that firms “have to earn the right” to survive. “There was the path where you did some investments and made money. It’s like, no, you’ve got to earn the right and not everybody is going to earn that right … and I think that is healthy,” the investor said.
I’ll end with a term we’ve been dancing around all through the intro, which is “quiet quitting.” Bloomberg Beta investor Roy E. Bahat posted a thread describing how seasoned venture capitalists may be quietly going into “easy mode,” aka, becoming a less active, minimum viable player of the team. Maybe their name helps the firm close new funds with LPs, and maybe their calendar doesn’t need to be busy with a ton of introduction calls, just annual investor meetings.
If we combine quiet quitting with natural selection cycles and the difficulty of tracking just how active a venture capitalist is, we experience a confusing, fragmented landscape. No one is incentivized to say that they aren’t doing business as usual, which creates a landscape of extremes."
https://techcrunch.com/2022/10/29/venture-capital-will-soon-be-brimming-with-ghosts
23. "It’s worth noting that there is one important exception to everything I just wrote: if you raise money from a VC firm that is very narrowly focused on your industry, they likely have a more extensive (and more relevant) network of downstream investors. But for most founders — particularly at the Pre-Seed and Seed stage — that isn’t the case.
At the end of the day, fundraising takes a lot of work. And successful fundraising is built on the back of considerable planning and preparation. Identifying and researching your target investors is one of the most important parts of that and, unfortunately, it’s not something I — or any VC — can do for you."
https://chrisneumann.com/blog/do-your-own-fundraising-research
24. This is a really good idea and needed. Bringing more transparency to VC industry and shines a light on emerging fund managers.
25. "Letting events on the batlefield take their course carries its own dangers for Putin. The spectre of defeat will hang over the Kremlin. The decision-making process will malfunction and frustrations will grow among the elite. Potential successors will start jockeying for position. The military will get caught between their need to conserve forces while not abandoning strategic poisitions, between a system demanding success yet incapable of providing the necessary resources.
Faced with stark chocies Moscow might suddenly discover a serious interest in negotiations. Until then, however, there is little choice but for Kyiv, with Western support, to persevere with its efforts to liberate territory until a point is reached where a Russian defeat can no longer be denied – or, to use another Churchillian phrase, to ‘keep buggering on.’
https://samf.substack.com/p/why-putin-prefers-war-war-to-jaw
26. Yikes Is really the only thing I can say here. It's gonna be a rough ride for everyone in the next few years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TTCqXcbgCH4
27. "The more new content there is, the more likely we are to consume old content. The same is true for ideas and ideologies. The rivalry between Netflix and Disney+ illustrates why.
Economies of scale aren't as valuable in a world of abundance. This is most apparent in media but has consequences for geopolitics and religion.
Consider the case of Netflix. Most analysts predicted that, given its scale advantage, Netflix would build an insurmountable advantage in streaming. That didn't happen. Why?
As Ben Thompson and Eugene Wei point out in their recent podcast: In a world of abundant choice, most content is substitutable. Instead of watching one thing, you can watch another. Very few shows are a "must-watch."
Shows and all other cultural products benefit from network effects. A show becomes more valuable if all your friends and colleagues watch it: Watching it gives you something to take about, and NOT watching it means being left out of the conversation."
https://www.drorpoleg.com/the-vader-paradox
28. "I’m just as tired as you are of this story. Politicians, pundits, podcasters—everyone is trying to get their pound of Elon flesh, hoping to drive clicks to their website.
Missing in all this chatter is a thoughtful analysis of what the problems and potential resolutions are. But this is a company worthy of serious study. Twitter is a perfect case study of the shifting power dynamics of the ad market and how to make money in this era of the internet."
https://every.to/napkin-math/how-elon-wins
29. Do I think the layoffs should have happened? YES. But this seems to be a really bad & awful way to do it.
Firing people and Lay offs always suck as someone who has been on both sides of one (many times) but this seems really thoughtless & cold (in contrast to one done at Stripe).
"After the layoffs, we asked some of the employees who had been cut what they made of the process. They told us that they had been struck by the cruelty: of ordering people to work around the clock for a week, never speaking to them, then firing them in the middle of the night, no matter what it might mean for an employee’s pregnancy or work visa or basic emotional state.
More than anything they were struck by the fact that the world’s richest man, who seems to revel in attention on the platform they had made for him, had not once deigned to speak to them."
https://www.platformer.news/p/twitter-cut-in-half
30. The guys excel when they discuss the tech industry.
The Dumbest Person in the Room: Always Slightly Behind the Curve in Silicon Valley
I think back to when I first moved to SF in 1999. My friend Chris introduced me to his eldest brother, early 30-something, Larry was in management consulting at that time. I remember being very impressed by him. His big goal was to cut his cost structure and maintain a good basic lifestyle while he invested his savings in investments. A precursor to the FIRE (Financial Independent Retire Early) movement.
He also bought a multistory apartment building, living on the top floor while his tenants paid the mortgage. This was back in 1999 btw, before 2003 when everyone rushed to get into real riches before things imploded in 2008. I should add this was when prices were reasonable and not so crazy. He did well.
Or another friend who I will anonymize for his privacy. A former American banker at Goldman who took off to Eastern Europe to do PE (Private equity) in the early 2000s. He traveled the world before he came back to San Francisco to start a niche CPG company at the start of the energy foods craze. He was an early adopter of Tim Ferriss remote work, 4 Hour work week style of business. He ended up exiting the company and then using his earnings to do micro PE fund rolling up software businesses from a remote massive sized ranch while building several side businesses for multiple revenue streams. A remote work and portfolio entrepreneur before the term was coined. This was in the mid 2010s before it was cool.
Forward thinking is the term I’d use here. People who you knew were sharp or ahead of the curve but then you realize a decade or two later just how far ahead they were. I’m surrounded by so many of these folks it’s quite exhilarating and depressing at the same time.
Alex Danco coined the term “Upside Regret” which is the missing out of something or underestimating someone that ended up being very successful. It’s like missing the chance to angel invest in Coinbase or Solana, or join PayPal or Facebook in their early days for example. I’ve definitely had a bunch of these which I highlighted previously here:
https://hardfork.substack.com/p/lessons-not-regrets-missing-life?s=w
But for me, the real “Upside Regret” is more about not realizing or understanding & internalizing key concepts or ideas earlier than I eventually did. The crazy amount of upside that I missed to my quality of life and personal finances is “oh so” high.
This is why I read so much, take as many classes or courses as I do, and go to as many interesting conferences like Founders Summit, the Leveling Up Mastermind or Capital Camp. And of course, I try to talk to and invest in as many awesome founders and VCs (I also do small select LP cheques on occasion).
This is the only way to keep up. And for the most part, it’s damn fun, so I don’t always mind being the dumbest person in the room. I’ve come to accept that I may always be slightly behind the curve. But just as the tortoise who loves the game, I will keep on going, slow and steady to win the race in the end.
Limiting Beliefs: Invert, Invert, Invert to Get to Bigger & Better Life
A “Limiting Belief” as defined by Lifehack.org is:
“is a state of mind, conviction, or belief that you think to be true that limits you in some way.[1] This limiting belief could be about you, your interactions with other people, or with the world and how it works.”
We’re all driven and act on the beliefs we are raised with, through our families and friends, our education and experienced through our lifetime. We usually don’t even question them as they are so ingrained in us. But this is a big mistake as our beliefs are our programming and set our capacity in life and achievements. They limit us to what is possible. Just like how a computer program sets specific limits, these beliefs set artificial limits for us.
Things like “I can never dance/fight/ sing as well”, or “I suck at math” or “Only Stanford and Harvard grads raise money from VCs.”
We all have some version of these playing around in our heads. And as my therapist always asks me: “How does this serve you??”
To go further from:
“Limiting beliefs can have a number of negative effects on you. They could keep you from making good choices, taking new opportunities, or reaching your potential. Ultimately, limiting beliefs can keep you stuck in a negative state of mind and hinder you from living the life you truly desire.”
(Source: https://www.lifehack.org/858652/limiting-beliefs)
This is why self examination is so important. Understanding yourself and what drives you. Understanding what you want and why you think it is hard or even impossible to get there. Question yourself, question your assumptions and use first principles. The article listed above gives you a great overview on how to identify these limiting beliefs so you can alter them.
I also try to tie beliefs with big ambitious end goals. When I think about big goals, I set it at some time in the near future and then work backwards. Break the goal down into smaller bite sized pieces, year by year, month by month, week by week and day by day so it becomes easier to process. The goals should be so big that they scare you.
Then you surround yourself with other outstanding, smart(er) individuals. Do this by friendship groups, business partners and even masterminds, which are formal groups of people who get together regularly to help each other grow and keep each other accountable.
This is not even a confidence thing: you probably want to be less than confident. That means your goals are HUGE.
Better to lack confidence than be overconfident. This way you work harder and over prepare.
This explains the difference between female and male founders I’ve noticed in all my years. Female founders tend to work harder and perform more to compensate. Men tend to be overconfident. And while this is great for pitching, presenting and fundraising, it doesn’t always lead to great operating skills. Or willingness to develop them. Obviously generalizing but in my somewhat large sample set, it rings true. If you lack confidence but have big goals, you will over prepare.
The point here is: we are our own gating factor. This is why I love the concept of NLP (Neuro Linguistic Programming) and all of Tony Robbins stuff. You learn what your limiting beliefs are and then you systematically challenge and reprogram yourself to be better. You brainwash yourself. Then you also surround yourself with awesome people whether online through the content you consume or live in person.
That is why I prefer being based in San Francisco most of the time, despite the gross city mismanagement, the crime, the high costs and bubble of arrogance and douchebaggery at times. It’s full of super smart & ambitious people. These all help motivate, inspire and provide models for you to remove your negative programming and get ahead.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Oct 30th, 2022
"We must let go of the life we have planned, so as to accept the one that is waiting for us."— Joseph Campbell
Very good explanation for the dysfunction happening in China right now. What used to be a very well run country early 2000s and early 2010's is gone.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PL8r1DH1Hw8&t=188s
2. "But self-interest should also ensure strong involvement of the private sector in Ukraine reconstruction, if indeed the rebuild bill will be in the order of USD500 billion plus. Western companies who pledge to assist in the Ukraine rebuild should benefit from participation in contracts and financing projects and the expected sharp and rapid recovery in the Ukrainian economy. Huge amounts of money will be spent in Ukraine and large returns reaped. That should be an incentive for most to get involved.
For many Western businesses, investment in Ukraine also provides an opportunity to improve their global image - some sullied by investments in Russia, and their slow move to exit their investments in Russia. Companies increasingly say that ESG is central to their business decisions. Helping Ukraine’s reconstruction, and the defence of Western Liberal Market Democracy in Ukraine should be the ultimate ESG play.
Western big business should invest in Ukraine as it’s the right thing to do - to push back on neo-patrimonial / corrupt system spearheaded by Russia as an alternative, even in advanced democracies. It is their moment to show where they were when there was a need to stand up and be counted against a regime conducting war crimes and genocide?"
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/ukraine-how-to-fund-reconstruction
3. This looks good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ElPJ719nh4
4. Grifters gotta Grift it seems.
5. Proud investor in this company. Go TheNEO!
6. "This time is no different. The companies, technologies, and offerings may have changed, but the froth and overconfidence are the same because human nature never changes, only people’s experiences do. You just wouldn’t understand, they said. You’re too old to get it. No . . . we do. Unlike those younger, we’ve just seen the aftermath once innocence is lost. As the water retreats, the sand castles crafted by charlatans crumble and investors lauded as visionaries are exposed as illusionists; their outsized returns merely byproducts of favorable tides and timing.
So as central bankers withdraw liquidity, someone needs to step-in to refinance or otherwise replenish the capital. Given the unprecedented deluge of global liquidity, even a small tightening of financial conditions will have an outsized impact on asset prices if the handoff isn’t smooth. Yet the prices and interest rates demanded by the public markets to sustain our heightened expectations will be much higher than the evergreen printers churned by our central bankers.
Ponder that for a moment. We’re transitioning from a world where interest rates were near or at zero for more than a decade to one hovering near 5% in less than a year. There’s a whole generation of investors who don’t understand the value of money because money/financing was free. Now we expect them to all to adjust nimbly? Impossible. This will hurt, things will break, moral hazard will return to heighten morale hazard as sentiment falters. It will be a painful, but necessary lesson, that is until central bankers shift from tightening to firefighting. They won’t want to bail everyone out, but choice is a luxury when system failures cascade."
https://openinsights.substack.com/p/our-q3-2022-letter-and-look-ahead
7. The importance of an Industrial Policy which the US does not have. Jones Act needs to be repealed. Critical to rebirth of US Economy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sc128K695R0
8. An excellent conversation. Brad Gerstner is a great addition here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5IzFvBQ-Zo
9. "All this to say that if you were betting, you'd wager on Colombia's democratic institutions holding up over the next four years. The Petro government doesn't seem to be especially powerful or united, and its approval rating has already dipped 20 points since inauguration. The most probable outcome seems to be a pivot to the center, particularly as financial markets place constraints on Colombia's budget.
That said, it's far from a sure thing that we'll get that approach. Much of the pro-business wing of things is being held up by one man, the finance minister. If he were fired or resigns, that would be a major negative shock to Colombian assets. As discussed, Colombia is running sizable deficits right now, so there needs to be a competent and respected figure that can talk to international bondholders.
---
My personal view is that Colombian assets are now so ridiculously priced that it's worth taking a long position on the Peso, Colombian stocks, or local real estate."
https://ianbezek.substack.com/p/the-petro-panic-colombia-has-crashed
10. It's all about semiconductors. China's tech industry has just been massively gutted. Worth watching.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XqMKu0HJyY&t=354s
11. This was an immensely valuable discussion for anyone learning about media and the edge of the internet. SO GOOD! Lots of insights.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGP4_mfwRKw&t=4181s
12. I definitely need to slow down sometimes & breath. Rushing is bad if you are doing it all of the time.
https://www.mattmunson.me/rushing
13. "There are real benefits to age, specifically experience and perspective. But that additional perspective and experience comes at a cost, as our representatives have a difficult time understanding new technologies and how society has changed. Folks who have ideas for change and the hunger to set them in motion are shut out, left with staff roles or positions in private enterprise.
In business, entrenchment is profitable for shareholders, though eventually an innovator will rise. In politics, the biggest winner is often the politician — and when governments are dysfunctional or allocate scarce resources poorly, we all suffer. We need more churn."
https://www.profgalloway.com/churn
14. Taipei is a great city and one of my favorite places in the world.
"At ground level, Taipei offers a unique shopping experience. The streets are lined with nice little shops and restaurants — and when I say “little”, I mean tiny even by Japanese standards. These are almost all on the first floor, as in most cities. Unlike the concrete facades of many buildings, these shops are fresh and cheery and clean and new-looking.
There are far fewer boutique clothing stores than in Japan, but restaurants seem to largely make up the difference. The food is every bit as good as you’ve heard — eating is one of Taiwan’s favorite pastimes. Craft stores are also common, and the quality seems very high. I noticed quite a few jewelry stores, which seems odd in a country where everyone seems to dress down."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/taipei-urbanism
15. "When life really hits the fan, what are the two things people will turn to?
Necessities.
Vices.
That is it. Any commodities purchased online with discretionary income that are seen as pure, high priced luxury will likely fall in a recession, save for those customers who are well off who will not notice much a of a dent in either income/assets or both, likely because they are already wealthy.
Everyone else? They will focus on making sure they have four walls of shelter and utilizes paid for, and then turn to alcohol, tobacco, fast food, and soft drinks as coping mechanisms. If they see a $9 or $12 product they can add as a pick-me-up every once a while? They may grab that too.
So what does this mean for eCom? Cheaper products often perform better in a recession. The lower AOV, the less of a decision a purchase is to a customer."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/ecommerce-in-a-downturn
16. This is an excellent tool for fundraising and I agree this is a smart approach to synching on fundraising. (some folks use Discord)
https://chrisneumann.com/blog/whatsapp-the-ultimate-fundraising-tool
17. "Perhaps, from the outside, a chef using a wheelchair makes for a compelling story; the guy who got shot and came right back into the kitchen, running things from his wheelchair like a boss. But Aleem's story is a different reality: the guy who took over a decade to come back. He'd been working away in his food truck, and he'd never told his story, never shared the details. It's only now that he's ready.
"I would pray all the time, that would help a lot." Aleem prayed until he felt something change. "I had to go through the emotional cycle, where I had to learn how to accept what God gave me, or the situation that I was in, and how to be able to work with it. And I had to figure that out by myself. There's no other way to put it. Somehow, with a leap of faith I was able to accept the situation. And there was freedom in that."
https://www.foodandwine.com/chefs/aleem-syed-toronto-chef-thg-chicken
18. This is timely and I'm actually quite bullish on the future of Japan.
"Importantly, even without the exchange rate, Japanese companies are cheap, with 49 percent of listed companies trading below book value, their assets worth more than what you must pay in the market to buy them.
Japanese companies trade on a 12-times price-to-earnings (PE) multiple, which is cheap compared with the 24-times PE multiple commanded by those in the United States.
When buying Japan Inc., you basically earn back your investment in half the time—corporate earnings alone will let you recoup your investment in just 12 years in Japan, while you must wait 24 years in the United States. So, the costs of buying and operating productive assets has become very attractive in Japan."
https://japanoptimist.substack.com/p/what-to-buy-in-japan
19. "The project, led by the Soviet-born billionaire Vladislav Doronin, is the first outpost in the city of Aman Resorts. Based in Switzerland, with properties in Asia, Africa, Europe, the Caribbean, and the western U.S., Aman has long occupied the zenith of luxury travel, offering sui generis experiences in exotic, secluded locales: coastal Vietnam, the mountains of Bhutan, Moroccan olive groves, the pinewoods of southwestern Turkey.
With nightly rates that can exceed $4,000, the resorts are principally characterized by an otherworldly beauty that arises from pairing unsullied landscapes with exquisite minimalist design. They emphasize tranquillity, peace, and (inevitably) wellness. But Aman New York was conceived in conflict."
https://www.curbed.com/2022/10/aman-new-york-vladislav-doronin.html
20. "In late 1992, the UK branch of the vacuum manufacturer, Hoover, offered an impossibly sweet promotion: If a customer bought any product worth £100, he or she would get two free round-trip flights to the United States.
For the 84-year-old electronics brand, it was meant to be an eye-catching way to boost dwindling sales, escape the gloom of a recession, and shrug off increased competition.
Instead, it led to the destruction of the company — a precipitous downfall that saw multimillion-dollar losses and customer revolts."
https://thehustle.co/the-worst-sales-promotion-in-history
21. "They say misinformation is harmful. I say their laws are dangerous.
As I’ve spoken about many times in this newsletter, if your nation is going down a path you don’t agree with, there are always actions you can take. For example, the acquisition of new passports or residencies that will allow you to live elsewhere, or the creation of an independent income that will offer you the ability to call another place home.
But even better? To me, that would be the act of resisting any company or nation-state that believes they have the power to decide what is or isn’t true."
https://abundantia.substack.com/p/dangerous-laws-incoming
22. "This most recent NOPEC threat is a dangerous gambit. Unlike prior bluffs, Biden is pointing this particular weapon at a time when his targets have good reason to believe he might actually shoot, potentially triggering a series of preemptive moves and an irreversible escalation that leads to a situation with no winners. If there are dots of potential doom to connect, you can bet we are on it. Let’s dig in.
What makes the current incarnation of the NOPEC threat different? It comes in the aftermath of an unprecedented sanction that froze Russia’s foreign reserves. While many were quick to cheer the move as an excellent way to punish Putin for his invasion of Ukraine, we had our doubts about the efficacy of the policy, and whether the West had fully thought through the consequences."
“…This move substantially increases the risk that the US dollar loses its privileged status as the global reserve currency and, at a minimum, likely ensures a polarization of the global economy into at least two camps – the West in one and Russia/China/Iran/Saudi Arabia plus other targeted or aligned countries in the other. If $20-30 trillion or more of global GDP spurns the preexisting reserve currency, is it still the reserve currency? If reserves can be negated overnight, are they even reserves? How many other countries must hedge against the possibility of similar sanctions?”
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/listen-jack
23. "Human nature is to look at the ideas directly ahead. What problem do I have right now? What idea do I care most about? While these are the logical starting point, and should be encouraged, it’s important for entrepreneurs to step back and think big. If everything went stunningly well, what could this become? Does that meet my ambitions?
While some ideas start small and become bigger than expected, most often, small ideas start small and stay small. During idea selection, take the time and energy to think more about what could be and ensure there’s the potential for greatness.
Make no little plans."
https://davidcummings.org/2022/10/22/make-no-little-plans
24. "Think of your will as fire. How do you increase the inner flame? How do you prevent it from burning out? Furthermore, how can you combine that fire with the fire of your people and ignite a firestorm? A purifying conflagration. These are the things the first men had to think about. How can he steel his heart for the struggles, the battles, and the wars ahead of him?
The Sacred Fire inspired man. It offered protection, warmth, and a chance for reflection. Maybe for the ancients, the Sacred Fire ignited their own inner fire. You must imagine the inner fire within yourself. What makes that fire grow? What starves it? Take note of each and build your life around forging a powerful inner fire.
Fire and fanaticism are worth more to you and our side than the deepest intellectualism."
https://resavager.substack.com/p/the-sacred-fire
25. "One of my main takeaways is that mastery takes time. There are many skills that I have been practicing for approximately 5 years. That is only about 50% of the way to the 10 year timeline of intense study that Greene points out is needed for true mastery. Good reminder that we all must stay persistent, disciplined, and obsessed with learning."
https://pomp.substack.com/p/pomps-notes-on-mastery
26. Good perspective on possible VC investment environment in 2023.
https://mobile.twitter.com/zachcoelius/status/1584642085918887937
27. We should all be watching this move very closely and what it means for the US dollar dominance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7naJ6SSXli8
28. "For Ukraine the front-line troops may be able to cope while many civilians at home struggle without electricity and water. Residents of Kyiv are being told to prepare for blackouts of four hours a day. Elsewhere hospitals, transport and critical social infrastructure is being given priority. Concrete slabs and sand are being brought in to protect important energy sites.
In the west of the country preparations are being made to accept more internal refugees from the east as mass evacuations may be unavoidable. No one pretends that this winter will be anything other than miserable, but there is no evidence that it is making the people of Ukraine any less determined to win the war.
From the start Putin has relied on coercive pressures to deliver the political victories that he has failed to achieve by military means. For all the suffering he has caused in Ukraine he has yet to succeed. The resilience of the Ukrainian people will certainly be tested by the freezing weather, as will that of Russian soldiers, away from home, poorly led, often cut off from supplies and in exposed positions.
The key question at for this winter season is how many of the troops ordered to hold their positons at its start will be there at the end."
https://samf.substack.com/p/general-winter-knocks-at-the-door
29. This actually could make sense. If anyone can do it, it’s Mr Beast who is a pioneer on many fronts.
https://watcher.guru/news/mrbeast-plans-to-raise-150m-at-a-1-5b-valuation
30. This was a great discussion on the edge of the internet. So many great observations on the growth of technology and crypto.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g06_pHUPfNQ&t=1996s
31. "With no shortage of people already at the company excited to work with Elon, the departure of political zealots and lazy malcontents would not even matter were Elon incapable of recruiting. But when it comes to recruiting, Elon is uniquely well-positioned. Among technologists, this is a man perceived as the very best the industry has to offer. In the months to come, he’ll attract a flood of smart, new people. They will bring ideas, and they will bring enthusiasm.
The authoritarian culture that was born after Trump’s election and metastasized after Covid has captured almost every major institution in the country, and every major technology company. But there is now at least one public space that exists beyond the influence of the One Party. The rebels have stormed the radio tower. Authoritarianism may still be ascendant nationally, but there’s a glimmer of hope for weirdos and skeptics."
https://www.piratewires.com/p/elon-musk-has-taken-twitter-day-zero
32. "Another way of saying that is "being contrarian, and right." The name of my firm is literally Contrary, so it's something we think about a lot. If you think and do what everyone else is thinking and doing, that's a fine way to make friends but not a recipe for outsized investment returns. Finding the things about which very few people agree with you is the way to create opportunity for massive outcomes.
Peter Thiel is often the investor people think of when it comes to making contrarian bets. There’s a quote of his that always surprises me because it moves away from just "disagreeing with everyone" to focus on a more important dynamic for doing things differently:
"The most contrarian thing of all is not to oppose the crowd but to think for yourself."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/the-hype-cycles-of-venture-capital
33. "Change is hard, it’s merciless, like a steamroller crushing everything in its way. Changing means saying goodbye to the past, to the safe and comfortable, to the known and familiar, and venture into a world where everything is a moving object."
https://fewerbetterthings.substack.com/p/you-gotta-learn-to-love-the-process
34. "We have now reached a point in the startup ecosystem where for large VC funds, a startup achieving a billion-dollar outcome is meaningless. To hit a 3-5x return for a fund, a venture partnership is looking to partner with startups that can go public at north of $50B dollars. In the entire universe of public technology companies, there are only 48 public tech companies that are valued at over $50B.
Simultaneously there are close to 1,000 venture funds all trying to find these select few. This is a huge problem. It is likely that many of the funds deployed over recent years will be some of the worst-performing of all time."
https://every.to/napkin-math/venture-capital-is-ripe-for-disruption
The Amazing Age of Access: Parkour as a Metaphor
I was watching an excellent documentary on Parkour called “Pushing Progression: Freerunning.” Parkour is the sport where these amazing athletes run, jump and land off these buildings and city landscapes, performing amazing feats along the way.
It’s fascinating and exemplifies how extremely globally competitive this sport has become. World Champions literally come from anywhere and everywhere. One day, they are practicing their trade in obscurity, the next day they are winning competitions and becoming known in the growing community.
Tony Hawk was the narrator and he said:
“I think The Internet accelerated sports progression because it levels the playing field, anyone can produce content and can show what they are doing and what’s new immediately. And I love that the Internet provides that to kids and the Internet provides that to people who want to make a career out of it but didn’t have the resources to uproot themselves and live where the industry is. And now the industry is everywhere.”
It seems blindingly obvious but as long as you have an internet connection you literally have a big doorway to a whole world of opportunity.
One of the elite athletes in the documentary said something very profound, that: “Parkour as a sport definitely lives on the Internet. And that is the main place for creative exchange.”
They go on to say that:
“You have this library of material where you can go and study which is amazing.”
“We have seen a huge progression because as soon as there is a community where they mirror what you are doing and where you can mirror them.”
I think this goes beyond Parkour. I think it’s directly relevant for every single hobby, industry, business and your career. The amount of great knowledge one can dive into, share and play off of. You can learn from the best wherever you are. It’s easier than ever to understand what is global maximum. Basically once you know what the global standard of excellence is, you can practice and push yourself to get to it. This is reflective of how global the nature of competition has become.
But despite this amazing opportunity, the big missing piece in most people is the attitude/ mindset of constant education and learning. Just because you do have access doesn’t mean someone will use it.
As Naval Ravikant said: “Free education is abundant, all over the Internet. It’s the desire to learn that is scarce.” So sadly true. Opportunities are literally everywhere around you, but you still have to show up and do the work!
Let Your Rage Flow: Anger as a Mechanism for Progress and Achievement
I have anger management issues. I think we all do. But I really do. This has been a double edged sword for me. It’s gotten me fired from a job back in college days. It’s caused issues with my family and friends. But it’s also motivated to intense levels of self improvement in the never ending hope of proving myself to the world.
This anger stems from shame, feeling looked down upon, treated unfairly by people around me which has led to a massive drive that is unending. A massive chip on my shoulder. And as the excellent & wise investor Josh Wolfe has said:
“Chips on shoulders lead to chips in pockets.”
Boy, does it ever. But it’s a hard journey and takes a high price.
It reminds me of a very good fantasy fiction book I read recently called the “Bladed Faith” by Dalglish. A master is speaking with his student.
Master: “Anger is good, it is useful.”
Student: “My mother, she said anger is a fire. And if I let it, it would burn me up and leave me hollow.”
Master: “But she is right. Anger is a fire, it does destroy but it can do so much more. Fire fuels my forges. It melts steel and crafts weapons. I do not want your anger ended. I want it to flare so brightly, it lights the entire island aflame. Do not deny it. Do not hold it back. Let the fire grow. Let it burn.”
In the end it’s a valuable tool but one you need to control and learn to use properly just like you would with a blade or gun. And if you are able to manage it well, it can be incredibly powerful & motivating.
Channel the rage you feel inside. Draw on that fury. Use your anger against injustice or unfairness or evil to take action even if you feel it’s hopeless. Use it to do good and right the wrongs you see. Use it to make yourself better. Use it to build something. Use it to accomplish great things that will make the world better. Use it as the tool that it is.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Oct 23rd, 2022
"Weaknesses are just strengths in the wrong environment."— Marianne Cantwell
This was a deeply interesting conversation on the future of business. Audience and personal brand matters. Also some good tips on biohacking.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K11qpEo898I&t=13s
2. Great episode of NIA: lots of food for thought.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TmVLHsADBWQ&t=6s
3. Great overview of a very exciting startup. Compound: The Digital Family Office.
https://www.thespl.it/p/compound-digital-family-office
4. "So German industry is wrapped in a cocoon of regional and national capital, insurance and export guarantees, facilities, and grants along with an arcane and complex tax and legal system impenetrable to outsiders but designed to allow the appearance of upholding workers' rights and keeping the capitalists in their place but internally creating plenty of room for manoeuvre.
Expect to see these activated and expanded on steroids by the current government whose only response to anything is pile on the debt to shield the citizenry from the consequences of its own intransigent stupidity.
Additionally, there is a current concerted appeal to the old wartime solidarity in which the German people came together in the aftermath of the last World War to share pots and pans and provide each other with camaraderie in the midst of suffering, hunger, and hardship.
It is hard to believe that the modern day aging German population, with its sense of entitlement, reliance on a generous welfare system, and sense of superiority, not to mention their hypochondria on full display during the past two and half years, will stand for much discomfort to stand strong with the poor Ukrainians. But you never know."
https://www.thelykeion.com/middlestanding-together
5. "With few allies in industry and even fewer among the major oil-producing countries, Biden has successfully alienated the very people he needs most. The SPR was created to take leverage away from OPEC, and, in draining it, the US is giving it right back. Expect the members to press their advantage."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/past-the-salt
6. "At this point we’re seeing incentives in action. All the easy money is gone so people are going to start optimizing for self preservation. This means all your co-workers will stab you in the back if it means saving their jobs. It means any handshake agreement is going to go backward and anything in writing is the only thing of value (lawyers will love this as they collect fees for all the back-outs that go to court).
More and more hacks and scams will occur. This will be across the board in crypto. People will learn that many hacks/scams were also “inside jobs” where the fund raiser was the one who stole the funds. Generally speaking, you’d think this would be a bad thing.
Unfortunately, everyone gets to watch up close as the people who get scammed *double down* on the scammers! We now have Grant Cardone and Dave Ramsey as good examples of people doing just this “home prices only go up” while simultaneously selling their homes. In the end, it’s one thing to go down when the price of your stock goes down.
It’s a completely different thing to sell everything and tell everyone else to buy (or worse raise money from them and sell it to them!) ← which is exactly what happened in many cases.
Anyway. Just assume that when you trust other people with your money and when you don’t have something in writing you will lose it all. That simple."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/more-rate-hikes-and-cash-balance
7. There is a lesson here for everyone.
"The idea that you can "deescalate" in each and every situation is delusional. From time to time you must stand up and fight and there is no way around it. You may choose whether you will take a fight in more favourable or less favourable situation - that's it."
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1580232435719376896
8. WOW: China's semiconductor industry is in big trouble to say the least.
https://twitter.com/jordanschnyc/status/1580889341265469440
9. Always a great conversation. Learning lots here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftNCKO_crGE
10. "After eight months of operations (and eight years since Russia started this war), Ukraine has several senior commanders who are seasoned strategists and operational artists. They clearly know their enemy well and know how to balance strategic risk and opportunity.
These commanders, including Generals Zaluzhnyi, Syrskiy and Kovalchuk, are skilled in providing intent and guiding their staffs and subordinate commanders through the planning and execution of large-scale military operations. This is a rare skill that few military institutions master.
Finally, the north-eastern and southern Ukrainian campaigns have highlighted a significant asymmetry in command philosophies between Ukraine and Russia. Russia centrally controls operations; Ukraine allows its subordinate leaders more freedom to exploit opportunities through mission command.
In rapidly moving military activities, military leaders who do not have to constantly refer to higher headquarters can set and dominate operational tempo, ultimately seizing the initiative. The Ukrainians have done this, and the Russians have not.
So far, the Russian Army does not appear to have an answer to what the Ukrainians have achieved in the past three months. The recent missile strikes across Ukraine in the wake of the Kerch bridge attack will have almost no impact on the military campaign. The Ukrainians have answered the questions of earlier this year about whether they could conduct offensives as well as they could defend. They have done so in the most resounding of ways. Ukraine is smashing the Russian Army and has developed a mastery of modern war that many will seek to emulate."
https://engelsbergideas.com/essays/a-tale-of-two-generals-how-the-ukrainian-military-turned-the-tide
11. This is a big deal. The silent war that has been happening in last 10 years between China and US is now more formal. This split is coming fast and hard.
https://twitter.com/zaoyang/status/1581322067211083777
12. Worth a read here for newbie and old investors.
"Because of 1 and 2 combined — easy access and lots of LP interest — there are *tons* of these deals on the platform. It’s probably 60%+. If you look closely, you’ll see that ~80%+ of the deals on AngelList that involve a tier 1 lead VC are bridge rounds. It’s rare to see a deal led by a tier 1 VC, where it’s the lead’s first time investing.
Here’s the thing: these investments, as a whole, heavily underperform.
Why? All of venture investing follows a power law distribution, and it’s no different for the tier 1 VCs. Sequoia has a better distribution than others, but the pattern is the same: 1–3 investments per fund drive almost all of their returns, and 30–50% of their investments are losers. If you were to buy a fund that is the bottom 50% of Sequoia’s investments — you would almost certainly have negative returns. If you want to mirror Sequoia, it’s extremely important that you get into their best investments.
Their best investments don’t do bridge rounds. So the very act of buying up all of Sequoia’s (or A16Z’s, Founders Fund’s, etc.) bridge rounds is an exercise in adverse selection. As a whole, you’re going to buy an index of their money-losing investments."
https://medium.com/unpopular-vc/a-word-of-caution-to-angellist-lps-d1ad41574bc5
13. This is a pretty geopolitical & historical act when we will look back at this.
14. "Becoming an Anticitizen is to refuse to be tied to one location, one system of rules, or one nation. To become someone who knows the world is laden with more opportunities than their birthplace can solely provide. Someone with the spirit of rebellion boiling in their blood—someone who won’t blindly obey.
Is that you? I hope so.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: whatever you do, just don’t leave it until it’s too late to create your own backup plan, or to start taking the steps to become an Anticitizen yourself. And take action now.
Whether it’s tracing your ancestry to uncover whether you have claim to a second citizenship, setting up a business to become less financially dependent on someone else for your income, offshoring or diversifying your investments across multiple nations, or moving abroad to begin living a higher quality of life. Do something. Anything. And do it today."
https://abundantia.substack.com/p/anti-citizen
15. "For crypto-enthusiasts, the blockchain’s potential to create a bank-free utopia is best observed in countries whose economy is, in some way or another, compromised. Despite the cultish grift that has come to define crypto in the United States, a use-case like Afghanistan acts as a sort of paragon of its initial objective: decentralized global finance. But while it’s true crypto use in Afghanistan continues to scale, so too do the concerns around it."
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/09/afghanistans-crypto-lifeline.html
16. It's About time.
"The actions are being described as an “economic war”, and the phrase is not hyperbole. The primary purpose of these export controls is not to protect U.S. industry or to stop the leakage of intellectual property to economic competitors. Their purpose is to kneecap China’s semiconductor industry — to slow down the country’s push for technological self-sufficiency.
That push has a lot to do with why the Biden administration went ahead and did this now instead of waiting.
Computer chips power everything these days, including everything military, so in the event of a war that cut off China’s supply of chips, the country’s vaunted manufacturing complex would be in trouble. Specialized chips, like AI chips and the processors used in supercomputers, are especially important to the areas of innovation where China is trying to push past the U.S."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/biden-declares-economic-war-on-the
17. I always learn new things from these stories. Nuns versus a Big Co monopoly selling communion wafers.
https://thehustle.co/how-nuns-got-squeezed-out-of-the-communion-wafer-business
18. "You should never try to replace a product-led motion with sales-led one (or vice versa). The goal is always to layer. Product-led sales allows you to evolve your GTM by introducing new growth motions while leveraging existing expertise. Avoiding starting from scratch increases your chances of success and helps prevent you from making incorrect assumptions."
https://www.endgame.io/blog/elena-verna-ready-for-pls
19. The Technological rise of China is over.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQ_HeCalYq8
20. An interesting take which I don't agree with. Hong Kong used to be an amazing place. Sadly the CCP has wrecked the potential there.
21. "Just imagine what will happen when we decide to break free from our one-sided addiction of having pretty much everything we consume produced in China. This will mean a huge homeshoring or friendshoring boom, capital investment on a massive scale into the reindustrialisation of our own economies. Well, maybe not so much in Switzerland, but a lot of production could move back to Europe, to Mexico, to the US, even to the UK. We have not had a capex boom since 1994, when China devalued its currency.
Sooner or later, Switzerland will have to bring back some forms of capital controls. That will be a feature worldwide. We have gotten used to sitting in Zurich or London and investing money in the US, in China, in Malaysia or Mexico. There are some emerging markets that are attractive today, as they have low levels of debt. But in a world where large parts of the global economy are in a system of financial repression, there will be all sorts of capital controls.
That means that as an investor, you best invest in jurisdictions where you plan to spend your retirement. To me, that means I don’t want to be invested in China at all, for example. The risks of getting stuck there are way too high, as the example of Russia has shown. Many investors today still pretend that we’re in the system that we had from 1980 to 2020. We’re not. We’re going through fundamental, lasting changes on many levels."
https://themarket.ch/interview/russell-napier-the-world-will-experience-a-capex-boom-ld.7606
22. "What point am I making here? There are 26 letters in the alphabet, and that’s very easy to feed to an AI and have it do whatever it wants with that dataset. There are a finite amount of colors that can be created through the hex code system, which gives AI the data it needs to create any sort of art it desires to.
But as a society, I think we have completely butchered the concept of talent identification and and have focused on almost all the wrong data points and questions to be asking, which renders AI in this industry completely useless. By introducing AI into human evaluation processes, we are allowing it to run with the flawed system that humans have stitched together, which does a complete disservice to the potential of the world."
https://words.seedscout.com/p/youre-only-as-good-as-your-data
23. "Our beliefs about ourselves can improve our lives. And when we believe in others we can improve theirs too. Believe in the people you’re close to.
Please take some time to reconsider and update your expectations about yourself and those around you. It can make a big difference. (And if you don’t, I’m going to have a dag tsog demon decrease your willpower, shorten your lifespan, make you obese, and cause you to become unhappy.)"
https://bakadesuyo.com/2022/10/expectations
24. This is what so many China bulls are missing. And why their rise is probably over.
"By reorganizing the CCP as an extension of his person, Xi puts all that in jeopardy. Rewarding loyalty over competence degrades the quality of top personnel. Eliminating competing factions robs decisions of needed criticism and consensus. And centralizing power in the hands of one man mean that that man’s mistakes become national failures."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/xi-jinping-forever
25. "An ever-growing middle class has been emblematic of China’s ascent ever since Deng Xiaoping kicked off the country’s economic transformation in the 1980s. That progress now risks being reversed as millions of people in China face rising living costs, fierce professional competition, a real estate bubble and sluggish growth."
26. A little bit gossipy but an interesting profile about the former CEO of Google. People need to give the guy credit, Google would not be the dominant company it is without him.
https://airmail.news/issues/2021-6-26/the-adulterer-in-the-room
27. "By 2100, India will be an economic powerhouse, with a third of world economic output. That’s double the current share of the US and China, the current co-leaders. With that steady productivity catch-up, India’s massive population edge — almost 50 percent larger than China and almost four times the US — becomes decisive. But again, this assumes steady productivity catch-up. And the sooner the better, of course.
Were today’s Chinese workers already as productive as American workers, according to the paper, China’s GDP would exceed US GDP by a factor of four. Now India in 2100 will still be just 35 percent as productive as the US. Although a huge leap from today’s seven percent level, that’s “still miles away from the US, China, and WEU. And it indicates India’s potential to become an even larger economic force through time.”
https://fasterplease.substack.com/p/why-the-21st-century-might-be-the
28. "Quality of Life is Better if You Work: That’s right. Rewind to when you were a kid and had summer vacations. Unless you were from a rich family you got quite bored as there was nothing to do except play sports all day (These days? Video games if you are not a good athlete).
Most people in their 60s who are rich and well off do some work. They just enjoy what they are doing and typically clock in around 15-25 hours a week (this is our observation). You don’t want to be working 40-80 hour weeks and you certainly don’t want to hang out with Karen from HR every quarter for your “review”.
This is what “everyone else is doing” and is “normal”. Going back in time, it would be smart to actually master a few things: 1) a sport that will last until you’re 70+ such as tennis (pickle-ball when extremely old), golf, lifting weights and biking/hiking, 2) starting an internet business the *first* month after starting a career/job and 3) setting up one internet business for an exit in your 30s as you may change priorities - kids, supporting your parents etc.
By Getting the Bag Early You Will Prevent the Steep Decline in Functional Capabilities."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/mainstream-advice-guarantees-a-life
Die with Honor: Think Long Term & Go Down Fighting
I have a lot of portfolio companies and the reality is not all of them do well or survive. I end up counseling many founders to make the hard decision to shut down their business. They are always surprised when I am supportive of shutting down. “Don’t you want your money back?” they ask.
I always answer: “Yes, of course. But I know the odds of success are very low. And I also know how hard and challenging it is to do a startup. I lose money, but you lose time. As long as you did your best I’m okay. I get most of my wins and returns from a very small subset of companies that more than make up for my losses. That is the game.”
I remember a VC friend of mine talking with his portfolio companies. “Die with Honor.” As long as you do your best, communicate well and shut down properly by taking care of your customers and employees, you will always be a backable founder. Past investors will be more than willing to invest in your next startup or help you in whatever you need.
This is why I am such a fan in general of the OG investor mentality in Silicon Valley. We are ultimately investing in the arc of an entrepreneur's career. To re-quote Maurice Levy of Goldman Sachs: “We’re greedy but we’re long term greedy!” :)
This is why transactional people don’t do well in the long run, whether as founders or investors. The money comes and goes. The lesson ultimately is to think long term, do the right thing and value your reputation, as that is all you really have. Be long term greedy!
Infinite Pacing: Activity & Inactivity, Rest & Recover to an Interesting Life
I remember watching a Jackie Chan interview on his methods and what he learned from Fred Astaire. If you watch any of Astaire’s old dance videos and compare this to Jackie Chan’s action scenes there is a lot of similarity.
Frenetic Movement & action, followed by a pause, then more movement. I think about this as I reflect on my pause in Vancouver this recent summer while visiting with my parents.
This goes back to my post “Work Like a Lion, not like a Cow: https://hardfork.substack.com/p/work-like-a-lion-not-like-a-cow ”. I’ve been running myself ragged for this year already with travel, conferences and lots of activity from my portfolio entrepreneur life.
I think I’ve been able to keep pace because of how I normally run my life weekly. 3-4 days of lots of calls/ meetings and work, followed by 3-4 days of reading, napping and chilling with the family.
It goes contrary to the industrial age teaching of hustle culture mindset. Working & grinding 24/7 all day all week for years on end.
Don’t get me wrong, you do have to do this hard grind sometimes, especially when you are starting your career as you don’t know anything! I did that for 18.5 years of my tech career. While lucrative and educational, all it did was burn me out at the end. Net net: it’s not a sustainable way to work in the long run. Perhaps this is why there are not many folks with real longevity and thus relevance in the tech industry.
Paraphrasing Naval: Be a Lion, not a Cow! Work intensely for short periods of time followed by breaks of training & preparation, preferably long ones. Just like how a triathlete or professional athletes operate. These breaks are an opportunity not just to rest but to retool and train. A chance to get in physical and mental shape.
My new model of work I’ve discovered is not just more sustainable but also more fun. The time of resting, lots of reading, writing & thinking helps you become a more interesting person when you do actually go meet people or go to events or conferences. You have an actual informed point of view on ideas and the world.
Think of the many super successful people you have met, who are also the most boring, uninteresting and also worn out individuals ever. It’s really sad actually. It’s like that old Bob Marley quote: “Some people are so poor…All they have is money.” This is endemic in Silicon Valley and Wall Street.
Don’t be like these people! And the path to not being these people is pacing. Travel, have hobbies, do lots of cool & fun things. But also make sure you take the rest breaks so you can process and reflect on these experiences too.
Life is meant to be impactful but it should be interesting too. Many people seem to have missed this point completely.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Oct 16th, 2022
"Belief creates the actual fact."— William James
This is great news for Ukraine! Kerch bridge is DONE & hence logistics for Russia to properly support their barbarian criminal army!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6I363uSKyAw
2. "But Ukraine has shown remarkable resilience in the face of a Russian attack that has deliberately targeted economic and infrastructure facilities throughout the country and not only near the front lines.
The Ipsos poll shows that the majority of employed Ukrainians in major unoccupied cities surveyed are still receiving their salaries on time and, for those that are delayed, the delays are usually less than two weeks. These data suggest that Ukrainians have managed to maintain a largely functional economic and financial system despite their pre-war challenges and the ravages of a brutal invasion.
Ukrainians have fought the Russian army and are driving it back with Western weapons and cash, but no Western soldiers. They are keeping their economy alive with Western money but their own expertise and ingenuity. Ukraine has shown in this terrible trial by fire its determination to make itself free and functional. That is an effort worth investing in."
https://time.com/6220447/ukraines-resilience-transcends-the-battlefield
3. "What I find most remarkable about these texts isn’t Elon — he comes off mostly OK in my view. It’s the people around him. It appears our idolatry of innovators has seeped into the minds of the uber-wealthy, sickening them with an uncontrollable tendency to fellate the cool kid for a chance to sit at his table in the cafeteria. “I would jump on a grenade for you.” If anyone ever tells you this, and they’re not literally in battle with you, it means they are a fan … not a friend.
The undoing of many powerful people is that they enter a hermetically sealed bubble of fake friends. Enablers, not people concerned with their well-being."
https://www.profgalloway.com/text-ure
4. "Output: surfing, deep work, writing, giving talks, advice, organize…
Input: focused discovery, research, workouts, deep conversations, reading…
You feed your mind and body in the afternoon and evening, letting your mind process everything new while asleep during the night, and then create the following morning until noon. Once you get into this positive and productive loop, the quality of what you create increase and you hunger to learn grows.
Now, reality doesn't always work on our schedule but small shifts in how we design our days can have a big impact over time. We need to shift away from the factory mentality where we show up for others at 9 am and check out at 5 pm to show up for ourselves in ways that builds long-term value on our own terms."
https://fewerbetterthings.substack.com/p/rethinking-the-daily-schedule
5. This is worth listening to. Energy is key. And the US dollar will be around longer than people think.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpaLUb0abCk
6. Started reading this book "Chip Wars". It’s excellent and this interview gives you a preview on the importance of semiconductor chips and geopolitics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQHbC6KpxF8
7. Q3 was slow for Venture Capital. Q4 is picking up but we only have 6 more weeks left in year for any startup trying to fundraise.
https://tremendous.blog/2022/10/06/q3-venture-funding-slows-to-a-crawl
8. "Entrepreneurs would do well to seek new capital as an extension of the last round if the startup hasn’t made enough progress for an up round. When it hasn’t, and a down round is inevitable, it’s much more challenging, but all is not lost. Figure out the options, get capital in the business, and most importantly, get momentum back."
https://davidcummings.org/2022/10/08/the-last-round-extension-goal
9. This info should be taken as directional data in my opinion. But in general we are in downward trend and question whether Q4 will be substantially up.
"Venture funding for the third quarter of 2022 totaled $81 billion, down by $90 billion (53%) year over year and by $40 billion (33%) quarter over quarter, according to a Crunchbase News analysis. While funding for the most recent quarter will increase a little in the coming months as stealth fundings are announced, this is a huge drop in funding compared to prior quarters."
https://news.crunchbase.com/venture/global-vc-funding-pullback-q3-2022-monthly-recap
10. "Humanity now fights a two-front war. A war against an invisible virus (I know your Commander in Chief might have told you COVID is over, but viruses don’t adhere to election cycles and their economic impacts linger long after the last rapid-test clinic has shuttered); and an undeclared World War between US / NATO and Eurasia / Russia / China. The current policies of the fiscal and monetary authorities are driven by their attempts to mitigate the economic effects of these two conflicts.
Given that all politicians — elected or not — are focused on short-term myopic policies, they typically default to printing money to solve nearly all issues.There are very few problems that an infusion of cash can’t fix, which often makes printing money the easiest and quickest solution; it can be done immediately, without much discussion or deliberation.
The alternative — the long-term restructuring of our global economy — would entail immense pain for certain stakeholders, and would necessitate having an honest conversation about the true state of our civilisation. Both of those requirements are non-starters for our short-sighted political friends, so regardless of whether your government practises capitalism, communism, socialism, or fascism, they all inevitably turn to “printing money-ism” to paper over any and all problems.
America is self-sufficient in food, fuel, and people. China, Europe, Japan, and the UK are not so blessed. America can be an autarky if it pleases. As a result, the Fed has the luxury of being able to prioritise domestic political concerns regarding inflation over and above supplying the world (and most of its allies) with a constant flow of dollars.
A constant flow of dollars allows the rest of the world to print their currencies and still afford to buy energy in USD terms. It’s a relative game, and if the strongest player goes their own way, everyone else is left to suffer."
https://entrepreneurshandbook.co/contagion-cf3638417fe9
11. Understand how the system works. One Backed by the US dollar.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3FzgIfpZsPQ
12. Insanity. Shows how clueless the environmentalist movement is.
"In response to this unfolding ecological horror show, Greta Thunberg, Greenpeace, WWF, Extinction Rebellion, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC), Sierra Club, and the Natural Resources Defense Council have mobilized millions of people to take to the streets across the Western world to demand the building, continued operation, and re-start of shuttered nuclear plants; the expedited building of liquefied natural gas (LNG) import and export terminals in Europe and North America; and expanded natural gas production in North America; and the beginning of fracking in Europe.
“The energy crisis and the climate crisis have the same solution!” shouted Thunberg to a cheering audience in Germany, many of whom had glued themselves to a nuclear plant at risk of premature closure. “We need to immediately expand the use of nuclear power and natural gas to prevent the burning of garbage, wood, and coal!”
In response, Germany and Belgium announced the continued operation of nuclear plants and the re-starting of closed ones, and President Joe Biden and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced the expedited production of natural gas and LNG.
I’m kidding, of course. No, what climate activists have actually done is the exact opposite."
https://michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/fanaticism-of-the-apocalypse
13. "The criticality of The English Project lays bare a rather self-evident truism: oil is inherently more valuable than coal. While Britain was awash in coal, it couldn’t power its airplanes with the stuff. Nor tanks, ships, or trucks. Coal has important but limited uses, whereas oil can be refined into gasoline, diesel, asphalt, greases, and all manner of useful petrochemicals. As the Roughnecks so ably demonstrated, the distinction can be the difference between victory and defeat.
The passage of time may have altered many things, but it has not disturbed that truism of inherent value. And yet, we observe today a most unusual development in relative prices across the energy markets............the energy price of coal is now higher than that of oil!
We initially pondered whether this might be evidence that the paper price of oil is being manipulated downward by the Biden administration, something many of our contacts in the industry have been saying privately for weeks."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/a-lump-of-oil
14. Nigeria is an Interesting market to invest in.
"But, a few things were clear on my recent visit to Lagos. Demand for basic goods and services in Nigeria, such as foodstuffs, banking and payment solutions, as well as telecommunications, and building materials, are all growing gangbusters. That’s despite the country’s many macroeconomic and political challenges.
Sales at BUA Foods were up 72.8% in 2021 vs. 2020. At GT Bank they’re up 10.4% for the second quarter of 2022 vs. the corresponding quarter in 2021. MTN Communications has enjoyed five consecutive quarters of better than 20% growth, and Dangote Cement has seen six consecutive quarters of growth above 20% year on year. In four of those quarters, sales growth exceeded 30%."
https://globalvaluehunter.com/nigeria-economy-could-get-back-on-track/#jump
15. "So net net in all this, don’t panic. Cool heads in the WH. They are winning. But they are still willing to talk to Putin, and I think are sending exactly the right messages to Putin. He will use nukes if he thinks there are no escalation risks. The US just spelled out that they will escalate if Putin uses nukes. So I think this suggests less risk now of a mistake as Biden has been crystal clear with Putin as to the consequences if Putin goes down the nuke route."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/are-nuclear-risks-building
16. "While it seems a bit scattered there is a ton of stuff in here:
1) META going to shut down offices/leases - expect other firms to do the same,
2) META can’t even convert on Android/Windows despite having the data - not good for general economy,
3) real influencers will be revealed and the days of getting a $25K check for fake page views are dead,
4) the valuable brands/influencers will gain significant market share, 5) if you want to go far you need to build a real lasting group/community. Please don’t bother disagreeing since there are *ZERO* Fortune 500 companies with only one person running the firm and
6) Twitter will be the first test run of trying to change/improve social media operations."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/big-changes-to-ads-and-more-regulations
17. The fascinating story of Costco's 4.99 usd Rotisserie Chicken.
https://thehustle.co/the-economics-of-costco-rotisserie-chicken
18. This is horrifying and why it cannot be allowed to happen.
"What are the implications of a Chinese Communist Party victory for the future of American-style democracy? What would that mean for humankind?
Today it seems unthinkable, but it may be coming: totalitarianism expressed through a state-run, artificial intelligence system that knows billions of people better than they know themselves. What would that even look like? To avoid the numbness that comes with abstract, hypothetical thinking, open up your mind and make it a personal vision. Imagine you are part of the next generation. It’s you that’s being born into a future where China’s government has AI supremacy and global domination."
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/10/what-if-china-wins
19. 2015 called & want their business model back. Accelerator programs are irrelevant.
https://www.axios.com/2022/10/08/on-deck-startup-accelerator-slump
20. “In Europe, only 8 percent of investors have worked in a fast-growing tech company.” Hinrikus explains. “We are decades behind the US. Founders have a brain configured for what life for entrepreneurs is like. There are too many investors asking why legal costs are higher this quarter than last quarter. That [sort of thing] doesn’t make or break a company—but ex-founders can zoom in on the things that matter.”
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/investor-entrepreneur
21. Hope more Russians come to this conclusion soon.
22. "Putin has nothing to say about the future. He seems to have no idea of what Russia itself might be, as a state or a society, beyond the conflicts that his own mysticism is supposed to sanctify. His references to the past as it wasn't leave open the question of what "Russia" is or might become.
Catherine, at least, had an idea behind her imperialism: that the Russian Empire was joining general European practices and becoming a European empire, complete with a handy link to the ancient Greeks.
Putin, who presents his wars for Crimea and for Ukraine as part of a larger death struggle with the West, does not even have that. His imperialism is for its own sake, or perhaps just for his own sake. His profound mischaracterizations of the past, leading as they do to absolutely nothing, are the slippery edge of an abyss, into which contemporary Russia itself is falling."
https://snyder.substack.com/p/russias-crimea-disconnect
23. "The survival of your people in the true struggle depends on your ability to excel in war. The Ancient Greeks loathed War. They also had to endure great and terrible hardships in their lives because of the consequences of war. Despite this, they were good enough at war that we still admire them today. We have given the Spartans immortal fame for their stand at Thermopylae. The Spartans themselves believed they were descended from the demigod Herakles who himself is a hero who’s passed through the ages. And we remember them precisely because of War.
The right nature is the one that honors War as Father. Not only because it ensures the survival of our people, but it’s in our blood. We were selected for our ability to wage war. The ultimate trade for the ultimate practitioner. There is a reason mankind has become the ultimate disciples of War. His bloodied sword guides us toward some greater purpose.
Where the Ancient Greeks despised War, the Romans revered him. They did not have the kind of flash and finesse of the Greeks at the time. They were a manly and warlike people facing threats on their borders. They saw the world through War. This is the better attitude to take and the reason why the Roman Empire lasted so long."
https://resavager.substack.com/p/war-is-father
24. "Big picture is Tech and Mortgage *Brokers* went bust first. This hasn’t caused layoffs yet in the rest of the industries (payments, Wall Street, Accounting and even Law since they usually help set up firms) are all going to see cuts. Sure there will be pockets of good but the big trend is going to be downsizing, more automation and a big waiting game. Eventually the sellers of homes will be forced to blink so at this point we’re about 10% of the way into a buyers market (using that chart above it means don’t bother yet).
Bonus - Pivot and Deflation: Is there potential for deflation in a year or so. The answer is actually YES. The problem is that people are assuming this happens a lot sooner than expected. For deflation in pricing you need to have unemployment go up. The reasoning is simple. As long as people are getting paid, they will still be able to cover all their stuff: mortgage payment, expensive dinners etc. When the paycheck goes away *then* and only *then* are tough decisions made (selling that vacation home, selling that extra car etc.)."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/were-at-the-finger-pointing-stage
25. Important discussion on China peaking and the fact that they are in big trouble. This is also why we might be at risk for war.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j17r6wJvzLk
26. "To simplify life, reduce what’s easy and focus on what’s hard. What’s easy everyone can do, what’s hard only a few. Make the hard look simple."
https://fewerbetterthings.substack.com/p/the-path-towards-mastery
27. "2022 What Changed? In 2022 a few things have changed. We’ve made some significant adjustments. First M&A is no longer the best option. Back in 2010 it was one of the best options since we were coming out of a recession, deal activity was okay and the hours were lower if you did some socializing and figured out how to avoid the sweatshops. At this point the rank order is: 1) Tech, 2) Sales and 3) Investment Banking M&A - ECM and DCM should still be avoided since limited skills are developed.
The second thing that changed is remote work. If you can find a single remote job (even if it only pays $50,000 a year), you can actually slaughter the 10 year plan to a million and do it in 4-7 years with a high probability of success. You simply work that remote job for 1-2 years and use that to fund your WiFi biz.
The fourth item that changed? You have to be more patient and careful right now. With debt issues blowing up and deleveraging taking off, you want to make sure you have certainty in your e-com/wifi biz launch. Better to start out slow with some sort of consulting/time for money exchange in year 1-2 because budgets are going to be under strict scrutiny.
The fifth and final item is that you should heavily assume career path money is going to dwindle. This is a major issue for many people reading right now. It’s no longer possible to move up the chain quickly in the vast majority of organizations. Since numbers are down massive, the older people will stick in their seats for as long as possible. No one wants to pay up since revenues are flat or down. This means you have to create the upside in income *yourself*. Your boss doesn’t care about you."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/starting-from-zero-be-adaptable-and
28. Russian orc army is toast. Logistics matter.
‘The Guardian’: A Story of Mentorship, Transitions and Sacrifice
It’s an old movie about the elite Coast Guard rescue divers starring Ashton Kutcher and Kevin Costner. When it came out, I did not expect to like this movie. But it’s so well done: the actual training and the great cinematography. But at heart it’s a great story. Senior Chief Randall played, by Costner, is a veteran elite diver, sent to be an instructor at training school after an accident in the field kills his crew. He is recovering and trying to get back into mental and physical shape after his traumatic experience. He runs into a cocky but very talented young trainee named Fischer played by Kutcher. After a rough start, they develop respect and Randle becomes his mentor in the way. It’s a story of struggle, overcoming challenges both mental and physical but also of friendship, service and sacrifice. It really draws you in.
I love and respect the inspiring ethos of the US Coast Guard: “So others may live.”
So many great scenes here but the one that stands out to me.
When the class finishes their final test, the head instructor tells them.
“I have high hopes for this class.”
Then he looks at his mentee & says “I have high hopes for you.”
I have been so fortunate in my life and career to run into and have good mentors. Especially ones who have done what you want to do and really do care and look for you. They are also ones who push you to be the best you can be. They see something in you that you can’t yourself.
I am grateful to all of them. And I will hope to share the wisdom they shared with me and pass it on. I also take to heart some of the advice given. While I am not saving lives like coast guard rescue divers, I try to help as many people as I can. There is so much pain and suffering and tragedy out there that it can be overwhelming. It’s so overwhelming it’s easy to feel powerless and do nothing.
Chief Randalls advice here:
“Honor Your Gift: Save the Ones You Can….The Rest You Gotta Let Go.”
You do the best that you can.
There is another scene when Fisher asks the Chief:
“When you can’t save them all, how do you choose who lives?”
Randall replies: “Probably different for everyone. Kind of simple for me. I just take the first one I come to, or the weakest one in the group. And then I swim as fast and hard as I can and as hard as I can. And the sea takes the rest.”
Remember you can’t save the children but you can save a child. Start there. Good advice for life.
I’ll end with a final quote from the movie. “What makes a legend? Is it what someone did when they were alive or how they were remembered when they were gone.”
What Does a Growth Mindset and Tokyo Drifting Have to do With each other?: Never Underestimate People
The Fast and the Furious movie franchise has been one of the most successful movie series in the last 2 decades. All about a group of street racers and their adventures. But in my book, the best one is Fast & Furious 3:Tokyo Drift which introduces a new character and takes place obviously, in Tokyo.
This movie is a classic story: Sean Boswell is the ultimate outsider, never fitting in anywhere in the USA and getting in trouble through illegal street racing until he ends up in Japan with his dad to stay out of Juvenile detention. Here he discovers the Japanese street racing scene with their unique drifting style. Of course, he ends up falling for the girl of the main villain Takashi aka Drift King & races him. Sean loses badly and smashes up the very expensive car he borrows. Complete disaster. But he is quickly taken under the wing of the ultra cool Han (Sang Kang) who mentors him in the way of drifting and life. He eventually triumphs and wins both the girl and big race in the end.
Not the best synopsis here but it’s to give context to my main point. His opponents destroyed him so badly in the first race they never took him seriously afterwards. A fixed mindset. But they never saw Sean train so rigorously in drifting. He improved so much that he won both against DKs cousin and then even DK. They underestimated him. While Sean was able to tap into his humiliation and wrecked ego to push himself & win in the end. He had a growth mindset as per Carol Dweick.
There is direct relevance here to startups, to investing in startups and people. People with growth mindsets win. People with fixed mindsets stall out in life. Frankly speaking, I find people who have had success too early in life tend to have fixed mindsets, as they don’t want things to change. It’s the one who has faced loss or humiliation that tends to want to change. Watch out for these folks.
This is why I usually don’t invest in founders whose first startup has done incredibly well ie. a big exit. Because they usually have lost the fire & hunger to win they once had. They usually tend to draw the wrong lessons from their success and more often than not, are arrogant and stop learning. This kills startups.
This is also why I prefer to get to know founders over time where possible, which is not always doable these days. But it’s important both to build a relationship as you will be entering into a long term business partnership together. It is also to see how they progress and learn & recover from setbacks. As I tell many founders, I don’t care so much about traction but the traction definitely shows me they are growing and learning along the way.
The key point is never underestimate people, especially if you are on the top. In fact, never underestimate countries, especially ones made up of hungry smart people. Never count someone out. People can always surprise you as it’s in the human condition to grow.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Oct 9th, 2022
"Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts."--Winston Churchill
Words of wisdom to prepare for the upcoming next few quarters of pain.
"In Short, to keep it simple. Assume that you will be down 10% or so in total after tax income. This will help you reset your budget mentally for the next 12 months. Q4 and Q1 will not be good. So. Don’t tell people you’re doing well if you survive the cuts."
"....focus on the big one-time costs and avoid penny pinching items that you need to improve your financial position over the next 5-10 years. If you fall behind on important things like software/AI you’re dead in the water when it comes to your business anyway."
Self Care: The biggest “zag” is to take care of your health. During downturns people gain weight, develop health issues and generally let stress decide their mood on a day to day basis. This isn’t healthy. Use that free time to calmly think, plan and prioritize for the future. It won’t be “down only forever”. It will be down only until everyone agrees that it’s a terrible economy. At that point, we’re at/near bottom."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/set-reasonable-expectations-during
2. "There are a few principles that if strictly adhered to will contribute the most to your sales success:
-Always Control the Frame
-Always be High Status
-Focus on their PROBLEMS not your solutions
-Always quantify their business problems
-Always find out their personal motivations
The closer you follow and implement these 5 principles, the better off you will be."
https://bowtiedsalesguy.substack.com/p/what-moves-the-needle
3. A very solid discussion on various businesses today: Sanrio & the richest man in India! "Not Investing Advice."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2g0cu9QTpIU
4. Net net the Russian barbarian army is toast.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqVjUOvp_04
5. This looks really good! Yellowstone season 5.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XkQmKIKt1zk
6. "So, now is not the time to prepare for a Ukrainian Victory. It is time to prepare for a world where the superpowers are all experiencing de-centralization and re-localization of politics and geopolitics.
This is all short-term extremely alarming and long-term probably seriously positive for the world economy. We may now be on the brink of a wave of economic and political forces that can generate much more economic growth, much more innovation, and much more disinflation if not deflation. When the Soviet Union supposedly fell, billions of new workers came into the world economy and pushed down wages and prices. This is about to happen again but on a larger scale and with better connectivity and technologies to support it this time.
When China entered the world economy after Deng Xiaoping gave the Chinese permission to be capitalists, China and its neighbors also lifted the performance of the world economy while killing off inflationary pressures. A repeat of this labor/innovation event is exactly what the world economy needs. Bill Ackman is right when he says immigration into the US would help reduce inflation. Worker immigration into the world economy will reduce it globally. If the superpowers are diminishing and devolving, then we’ll get a new peace dividend."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/the-ukraine-effect-relocalization
7. "As I pointed out in my most recent essay “For the War”, the recent past was one of economic peace between the two major blocs (US / EU vs. Eurasia / Russia / China). But using its Western European vassals, the US political elite is determined to stymie the economic integration of the Eurasian landmass. The Russians did them a favour by invading Ukraine and not winning quickly.
Now, the political elite can use the kinetic war in Ukraine as the casus belli for intensifying the economic war that was always going to happen between a descendant Pax America and an ascendant China and her vassals. In case you missed it, at the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization jamboree in Samarkand Uzbekistan Putin gave the Chinese everything they wanted in return for Xi not diplomatically abandoning Russia. We drankin’ Maotai, not Stolichnaya.
The war is raging in cold places like cyberspace. You can’t use Instagram in China, and if some US politicians get their way, you wouldn’t be able to use TikTok in America. If your passport is Russian, your Dollars, Euros, Pounds, etc. aren’t yours anymore. And Russia now only allows purchases of hydrocarbons in RUB, Gold, or currencies of “friendly” nations.
The global financial and energy system is balkanising and it will lead to intense pockets of inflation. In this scenario, a global currency operated and owned by and for humanity has infinite value. This is when the Bitcoin technology will show its true worth and buttress the right-hand side of the value proposition laid out above."
https://medium.com/entrepreneur-s-handbook/snippets-6eebdee2b069
8. This was a great episode: All in Podcast.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fU6QlvruLTw&t=2782s
9. "The current situation, however, is peculiar. In some areas, such as microchips, integration is disappearing. In others it is still flourishing. Chinese exports to the United States stand at record levels. American investment banks are rushing into China. Cultural exchanges remain strong. The two economies remain highly dependent in each other and no one can see how they could safely be broken apart. Europeans actually complain that American energy companies prefer to export energy to China.
One can only make sense of the paradox by drawing a distinction between two levels of action: the geopolitical and the economic. At the geopolitical level, actors try to concentrate power and will build all kinds of barriers preventing their own leverage from flowing elsewhere. Advanced chips, for example: since they are a source of geopolitical power, the priority becomes to prevent your geopolitical rivals from having access to them. In certain circumstances, energy might also rise to the geopolitical level."
https://brunomacaes.substack.com/p/some-further-notes-on-decoupling
10. "The more Ukrainian forces can move forward the more Russian assets are in artillery range. Ukrainian units are reported to be pressing Kreminna and may soon threaten the Russian positions in Lysychansk and Severodonetsk, taken in June after a long and costly (for both sides) struggle. There are also reports of a new push by Ukrainian forces in Kherson.
All this mocks Putin’s announcement, demonstrating that he can’t hold what he has just annexed. The qustion now is how long the Russian people and, most importantly, the members of the power elite, put up with this recklessness. Polling suggests that support for the war has fallen sharply."
https://samf.substack.com/p/putins-annexation-and-lymans-encirclement
11. "Renowned as the “ideal modern banking executive,” he had reshaped the very idea of American banking as head of National City Bank and helped fuel the 1920s bull market, which was now in jeopardy.
Inside the House of Morgan, Mitchell and bankers J.P. Morgan Jr., Thomas Lamont, and Albert Wiggin decided to go on a stock-buying spree to inject confidence into investors. The momentum spread at the exchange and, miraculously, the market stabilized.
Mitchell believed the worst had passed.
“I still see nothing to worry about,” he told reporters.
But that day was Black Thursday, and the next week brought Black Monday and Black Tuesday, the defining days of the 1929 stock crash, an event that signaled the beginning of the Great Depression.
A few weeks later, when the smoke cleared enough to assess the damage, several leaders pointed at Mitchell once again. This time, his status as the ideal banker meant he represented something far grimmer.
Senator Carter Glass said later, “He, more than any 50 men, is responsible for this stock crash.”
https://thehustle.co/the-banker-who-caused-the-1929-stock-crash
12. Another great discussion with Peter Zeihan. Worth watching this if you want a good view on geopolitics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kPa1NvmER84
13. "I still think this ends badly for Putin - shot to the head from some Russian patriot in his entourage. There is opposition within the Kremlin - people like Patrushchev, former "rival" Sergei Ivanov, there is a cadre of more sophisticated career siloviki who I think could move against him as this gets worse for Russia and the Russian military losses mount. I think there are plenty of people who don't want to get into a nuclear war with NATO. I think the US is talking to these people, surely it is?
I still think here that we are approaching the end game in Ukraine, and for Putin. He has lost the war in Ukraine, there is no winning strategy there for him now - only question now is is if Putin loses Russia, the rest of the near abroad, remaining allies like China, his own life, as well as Ukraine.
End game for Putin. Hopefully not for us all as well."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/putin-boots
14. This is a good framework for startup valuations.
https://alexoppenheimer.substack.com/p/directional-valuation
15. "The global travel industry have lead us to believe that there are only two travel modes: business or pleasure. But I believe that there is a third: living on our own terms. This means to travel with integrity while being opened to new experiences and learnings."
https://fewerbetterthings.substack.com/p/on-conscious-hybrid-traveling
16. "It’s hardly a secret that this country is a HUGE potential market. Nigeria is a country of nearly 220 million people. Just under 1 in 7 Africans, and 3 in 100 people in the world live in Nigeria. The commercial capital Lagos alone, where domestic migrants flock seeking opportunity, has a population of around 17 million.
The population is also young. The median age in Nigeria is just 18.6. That compares to 38.5 in the United States, 38.4 in China, and 28.7 in India.
As a result, like most of Africa, between now and mid-century, Nigeria is going to see a huge spurt in the growth of its productive, working-age population."
https://globalvaluehunter.com/nigeria-may-just-be-the-cheapest-stock-market-on-the-planet
17. "As in an eighties horror flick, America’s political divide started benign, campy even, and has become gruesome quickly. However, it’s not a demon in a hockey mask that terrorizes us. The threat is not an outside malevolent force. In fact, the call is coming from inside the house. We need programs and investments that reinforce a basic truth: Americans’ strongest allies will always be other Americans."
https://www.profgalloway.com/house-of-cards
18. "As a generalist, your value proposition to potential collaborators is often a bit murky. Since you aren’t an engineer or a salesperson, people naturally want to know how you will make their lives easier. Expert generalists are able to answer that question quickly by adding what I call “Day-One Value.”
Day-One Value means that you quickly provide enough value so that your collaborators experience “the magic moment of working with you.”
https://junglegym.substack.com/p/becoming-an-expert-generalist
19. "The quantity of people that will do favors for you, and the magnitude of those favors, dictate wealth. That is the currency. Indentured servants, in everything but name."
https://variances.substack.com/p/fake-life-true-wealth
20. "I've listed a few here that I have seen consistently across gravity-defying companies. They almost always have incredible products solving meaningful problems in a market that is unstoppable. But there are others. My key takeaway from looking back on Figma as an example wasn't to say, "here are the reasons I nailed it." It's to appreciate that the very best companies have exceptional characteristics that you have to look for.
And no, I don't believe that these kinds of exceptional outcomes are the simple result of massive waves of free money from the Fed, or whatever hand-wavey macro justification you want to try and slap on it. Every business is operating in the same economic environment. And yet, some still become exceptional."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/the-reality-of-unrealistic-outliers
21. "It will be interesting to see what the weakest sovereign borrowers turn to as a store of value over time. Western countries may have the luxury to boot up the money printer in times of economic uncertainty, but it’s developing countries that ultimately foot the bill. In our view, bitcoin provides these countries with an option to exit, or at least, reset."
https://soonaorlater.medium.com/inflationary-vs-deflationary-shocks-5f64bd4e94bb
22. Slava Ukraini!
"Thus, the ISW said, this mobilization would not affect the war's course in 2022 and "may not have a very dramatic impact on Russia's ability to sustain its current level of effort into 2023."
"The problems undermining Putin's effort to mobilize his people to fight, finally, are so deep and fundamental that he cannot likely fix them in the coming months—and possibly for years. Putin is likely coming up against the hard limits of Russia's ability to fight a large-scale war."
23. "There are a lot of hidden “traps” that founders can fall into when fundraising. There are phrases that come across differently to founders and VCs, missteps that can lose you credibility with potential investors and phrases that immediately tell an American VC that you’re “not from around these parts.”
And then, there are the things that make investors go “hmmm…”.
These are things that won’t outright kill a fundraise, but can cause enough potential investors to pause that they can meaningfully hurt your fundraising funnel. They can cause VCs to turn down introductions they might otherwise have taken, to slow down their diligence process, or to archive your intro email intending to revisit it…but never doing so."
https://chrisneumann.com/blog/things-that-make-you-go-hmmmm
24. "The half-decade since has revealed both the audacity and naivete of Son’s strategy. Debacles with WeWork, Uber, Oyo, Zume, and many others have left Softbank and its investors bloodied. In August of this year, Softbank announced a quarterly loss of $23 billion, the steepest drop in its history. That followed on the tail of a $17 billion decline the quarter before; in six months, $40 billion in value had evaporated. This week, news leaked that Softbank intended to cut 30% of its Vision Fund team.
History suggests that losses of this magnitude are often fatal. And yet, in Masayoshi Son, Softbank has someone with a rare gift for raging against the dying of the light. Time and again, he has shown an ability to recover from seemingly irredeemable circumstances. Though few would be foolish enough to bet against Son, saving his company’s venture practice looks like a bridge too far.
How Softbank found itself in such dire circumstances is a story that traces the arc of every great empire. It is a tale of grand ambition and outrageous wealth, kingdoms and kingmakers, conniving aides and flattering courtiers, dazzling conquests and humiliating retreats."
https://www.readthegeneralist.com/briefing/softbank
25. This was a fun interview & discussion on international business expansion.
https://www.globalclassbook.com/podcast/episode22-marvinliao
26. Christian Bale is an incredible actor.
"Bale resists self-reflection, but it’s not hard to see that kid in him still: drawn to extremes, transfixed by reinvention, motivated by fixing what happened to his family, and ambivalent about what he had to do and what he had to sacrifice in order to take care of the people he loved.
It’s also worth saying that he resists self-reflection in an absolutely delightful way. His accent is nominally Welsh, the voice more musical and mischievous than it tends to be onscreen, and in that voice he will ask you if you have children. He will ask you what your hopes and dreams are in life. He will seek out other things you’ve written and ask you detailed questions about them, all in the hopes of not talking about himself.
Part of it, he says, is that he thinks that if people actually know him it will ruin whatever he’s trying to do as an actor; part of it, I think, is that he’s just genuinely not all that interested in the subject. What he wants, what he’s seeking, is obsession, or oblivion—the total erasure of the self. And let me say!…I recommend talking with people who are into oblivion. They are never once boring.
He certainly was never boring. And he certainly always taught me that being boring is a sin. And so maybe it did have some connection in there, you know? But I’ve always gravitated towards, you know, the fantastic dream that someone like Werner Herzog has, and how they go through it and the way they approach it and you just dig in. That reminds me of my father a great deal. Unorthodox thinkers who are going to go do it even if everyone is screaming that they’re absolutely crazy."
https://www.gq.com/story/christian-bale-november-cover-interview
27. Love the thesis of Sturgeon Capital. Very smart strategy and VC fund.
"While frenzied activity churns some waters, Sturgeon Capital backs adventurers headed in a different direction. The $275 million investment firm has succeeded by focusing on geographies most VCs overlook, including Uzbekistan, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Egypt. Though these countries have several attractive traits and a combined population of more than 500 million, they receive some of the lowest venture funding per capita.
Pakistan, for example, receives $1.60 per person in venture funding compared to $30 in neighboring India or $34 in Indonesia. These are exciting, emerging economies, and yet competition is minimal. While executing in developing countries brings challenges, the last decades have seen unicorns emerge from many nations with similar issues."
https://www.readthegeneralist.com/briefing/sturgeon-capital
28. "Mobilization itself starts to look like a spear pointed the wrong way: is there a point in sending thousands of unprepared and underequipped men into what they increasingly know is doom? Putin's presupposition, of course, is that mobilized soldiers will either die or win; but if they flee instead, they become a dangerous group, perhaps ready for another leader.
And so we can see a plausible scenario for how this war ends. War is a form of politics, and the Russian regime is altered by defeat. As Ukraine continues to win battles, one reversal is accompanied by another: the televisual yields to the real, and the Ukrainian campaign yields to a struggle for power in Russia. In such a struggle, it makes no sense to have armed allies far away in Ukraine who might be more usefully deployed in Russia: not necessarily in an armed conflict, although this cannot be ruled out entirely, but to deter others and protect oneself.
For all of the actors concerned, it might be bad to lose in Ukraine, but it is worse to lose in Russia.
The logic of the situation favors he who realizes this most quickly, and is able to control and redeploy. Once the cascade begins, it quickly makes no sense for anyone to have any Russian forces in Ukraine at all.
Again, from this it does not necessarily follow that there will be armed clashes in Russia: it is just that, as the instability created by the war in Ukraine comes home, Russian leaders who wish to gain from that instability, or protect themselves from it, will want their power centers close to Moscow. And this, of course, would be a very good thing, for Ukraine and for the world."
https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-does-the-russo-ukrainian-war
29. Neat story.
https://simonsarris.substack.com/p/the-king-and-the-hermit
30. Couple more weeks until I am back in JAPAN!
Some food and grocery recommendations.
https://masakijinzaburo.substack.com/p/food-and-groceries-in-japan
The Agony and Ecstasy: The Blade Cuts Both Ways
I remember this specific scene in the documentary “RoadRunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain.” He is talking with a rocker friend Josh Homme about traveling on the road, feeling guilty and missing family.
Bourdain says: “It’s weird when I’m home, I’m ridiculously happy for a week. But then I start to get crazy and feel like I should be doing something.”
Josh responds:
“I call it the Bittersweet curse. Nothing feels better than going home. Nothing feels better than leaving home.”
I know exactly that same feeling.
I’ve struggled with this personally, having the privilege of building a relatively good career doing more international business travel than the average business person. It’s been immensely rewarding financially, emotionally and psychologically. Overall it’s been such an amazing experience. But it’s come at an enormous personal cost healthwise and it has had a negative effect on my family life too. Hard to build a deep relationship when you aren’t around.
I over-invested in my career. The result is I think I’ve become a pretty damn good businessman and investor. But this at the cost of what should be the most important thing in your life. 2 decades away from my aging parents and my brothers. Precious time away from my growing and beloved daughter & wife. I used to consider my family life something of incredible personal joy. But now it’s one of great pain & sadness, due to my own choices and decisions.
It’s like you spent decades building a house but it gets burned to ash because you did not take care of it properly. Or just took it for granted.
Yet, I acknowledge that this was the personal choice that I made and now have to live with.
I have regrets but they are useless as you can’t go back in time. A functioning adult should take responsibility and fix it if he can.
So you have to focus on the present and move into the future. Re-quoting the wise and super cool Han in “Fast & Furious: Tokyo Drift”, “Life is simple, you make choices and you don’t look back.” Easy to say, hard to do especially for a history major like myself.
We always want what we don’t have. We think the grass is greener on the other side. But this is false.
Everything is a double edged blade. Most things in life are neutral. Things are usually never as good nor as bad as it seems at first. Sometimes removing the emotion lets us see things more clearly so we can deal with it.