Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Jan 29th, 2023
“Everything you can imagine is real.”―Pablo Picasso
"There is no sudden turn-around or change. This is still the same Xi, and the policy is one of hypothesis “readjustment” or “rectification”.
In order to make the economy “harmoniously” grow in the long term, they have to accept short-term slow-downs and policy changes. To simple observers, they look like zig-zags; to the perceptive eye, they look like a straight line."
https://branko2f7.substack.com/p/not-a-new-xi
2. I've always loved Bulgaria. Even more so now. Good people overcoming the toxic Russian influence there.
https://www.politico.eu/article/bulgaria-volodymyr-zelenskyy-kiril-petkov-poorest-country-eu-ukraine
3. Hayes Valley is a great hood.
"Cerebral Valley is ultimately a term coined by the founders and hackers behind the newest trends in generative tech—but it might just result in a rebranding moment and lifestyle shift for the tech world, an industry that once prided itself on its cushy work-life balance.
And the growing popularity of a more residential, neighborhoody work-life model might have broader ramifications on San Francisco, a city that has historically struggled with tech-centered gentrification and currently has millions of square feet of office space sitting empty in Downtown SF.
Nonetheless, the rise of these hacker homes feels, in many ways, like a return to tech’s Wild West era, when scrappy startups sought to change the world from the garage of a Palo Alto home—or in this case, an Alamo Square Victorian."
https://sfstandard.com/technology/what-is-cerebral-valley-san-franciscos-nerdiest-new-neighborhood
4. This is an incredible interview with a former CIA operative. A wide ranging and great discussion: on geopolitics, the media, his time in the service, politics in America. Worth a watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KGaht_p8QeY
5. This is an inspiring story. Smart kid here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BggZbyYkPos
6. This is an excellent discussion on geopolitics and America's place here & how power drives everything. Lessons from history.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSTzXQvLah8
7. This is really inspiring. Angels do exist on earth it seems.
https://news.yahoo.com/farmer-died-town-learned-secretly-181429538.html
8. "These days, it’s a rare thing to see Nims face defeat. Over the past four years, the former Nepalese special forces soldier has electrified the climbing world and the wider culture beyond. He became mega-famous in 2019 by scaling all 14 of the world’s 8,000-meter peaks in just six months and six days.
After that inventive feat, his notoriety was multiplied by the releases of his book, Beyond Possible, and Netflix movie, 14 Peaks, both of which helped confer a level of power on Nims that climbers seldom achieve.
Now he’s deciding how to wield that influence, both for himself and his Sherpa compatriots. He’s aimed at nothing less than remaking the Himalayan guiding industry in his image—and along the way is raising questions about what it means to be a mountaineer in the age of the influencer.
It’s a lot. Nims is a lot. But his hustle and bravado are precisely the things that have allowed him to break into the mainstream from Nepal’s deep bench of climbing talent. I’ve covered mountaineering and Sherpa culture on and off for more than a decade, and while there have always been insanely strong climbers with roots in Nepal, nobody has ever amassed the mind share, as the marketers say, that Nims has.
In the process he’s gathered a legion of devotees and plenty of critics, all of them hoping to cement his reputation as either a generational talent among high-altitude mountaineers or else an egotistical self-promoter flying perilously close to the sun."
https://www.gq.com/story/nims-purja-profile
9. This was fun and yes, Davos is a complete grift. F--k the WEF & Klaus Schwab.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7E22zdUDpk
10. "Peak AI indicators abound. VC thought pieces and tweetstorms have reached all-time highs. Fair-weather fans from the crypto boom have migrated. MBAs may soon outnumber nerds."
https://luttig.substack.com/p/is-ai-the-new-crypto
11. A great model for young (and old) men.
"A bias for action and a thoughtful mind need not be incompatible.
Here are thirteen men who became war heroes, super spies, and more - while also achieving literary greatness."
https://oldbooksguy.substack.com/p/13-writers-who-lived-like-action
12. Fascinating international business man here: Adolf Lundin.
https://twitter.com/Fritz844/status/1616653527484628993
13. "As we’ve written about before, power is a psychological intoxicant. Any system that guarantees individuals power based on their bloodline is bound to fail — because eventually, you’re going to get a bad king/queen/prince/actress. We’re witnessing this in real time. Monarchies passed their expiration date a century ago.
The grace of Queen Elizabeth was royalty’s (formidable) last line of defense. What Marx said about capitalism, that a system based on self-interest would collapse under its weight, is playing out in the Houses of Windsor and Soho.
Distraction
Last week’s news about the monarchy reminds us how irrelevant they’ve become. France realized this centuries ago and separated its monarchs from their head(s), while the U.K. (more elegantly) subordinated the monarchy into a PR function. As the weapon of mass distraction that is H&M captures our gaze, more meaningful things are happening in Britain. Specifically, a government led by the democratically elected son of Indian immigrants has made an important decision."
https://www.profgalloway.com/porn-and-tanks
14. "While US and other Western officials don’t always have perfect insight into exactly how Ukraine’s custom-made systems work – in large part because they are not on the ground – both officials and open-source analysts say Ukraine has become a veritable battle lab for cheap but effective solutions.
“Their innovation is just incredibly impressive,” said Seth Jones, director of the international security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies."
https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/15/politics/ukraine-russia-war-weapons-lab/index.html
15. "Of course, while it is ultimately Russians who will shape their country’s post-Putin fate, the West will also play a role. In the 1990s, an historic opportunity to create a true partnership and encourage genuine democracy in Russia was squandered, not least by short-termism, supporting Boris Yeltsin when he essentially stole the 1996 elections, as well as when he shelled his own parliament into submission in 1993, because his Communist and nationalist opponents were so unpleasant.
What was understandable in the short-term was disastrous in the long-term, furthering cynicism about a still-emerging democracy and creating conditions propitious for the rise of a revanchist nationalist and statist like Putin. It may be that the Ukrainian disaster will be a second chance for both Russia and the West."
https://engelsbergideas.com/essays/is-there-hope-for-russia-after-putin
16. An amazing business book list here. All very good.
https://bowtiedtetra.substack.com/p/recommended-business-books
17. I'm very bullish on Japan.
"All said, Japan has remained very rich, is now creating high-quality full-time jobs, and has an inspiring track record of distributing wealth equitably."
https://japanoptimist.substack.com/p/japan-reality-check-2-what-is-japans
18. "At present, an estimated 22 million people move to Africa’s cities each year. By 2050, the urban population in Africa will be over 1.3 billion, or nearly as much as the entire population of the continent today.
As they did in Asia over the past 50 or so years, these trends offer enormous opportunities for businesses and investors. At African Lions Fund, our goal is to benefit from some of them.
In spite of a number of short-term challenges, such as high inflation, debt distress, and foreign exchange shortages that are afflicting some of the countries in our frontier Africa investment universe,these long-term demographic trends have not changed.
Moreover 2022 proved that a carefully selected portfolio of the best companies in frontier markets in sub-Sahara Africa can offer investors a rare safeharbour of non-correlation with the rest of the current global financial markets storm."
https://globalvaluehunter.com/why-now-might-be-the-right-time-to-invest-or-invest-more-in-africa
19. "There are a number of super talented product founders right now that are either going after Twitter (betting on its decay) or Google (betting on their political inability to integrate ChatGPT-like results into search).
Both may be an opportunity, but trying to displace an incumbent with an atomic unit that smells too similar seems tough.
The gravitational pull of both products’ existing network effect is just too strong. Neither TikTok nor ChatGPT look like Google, but both are keeping Google up at night. I’d wonder how to innovate on the core atomic unit."
20. "So what do we tell our students, our children, ourselves about our current progress in the Long Singularity? That flexibility is key. That everyone should be experimenting with these new tools to understand what they mean for us.
That we should be prepared for a possible future that is very different than the past, in ways that are unknowable right now. People are flexible, and technological change usually gives more than it takes, but we need to be ready for a much stranger world."
https://oneusefulthing.substack.com/p/becoming-strange-in-the-long-singularity
21. "It’s the same story of Rome’s elite plundering the empire all over again, just a few thousand years later.
No matter the country, the result is always the same. Governments are responsible for creating laws that allow the elite to pay less than their fair share, then punish normal citizens and small business owners when they need to recover the funds needed to keep a nation functioning. The modern taxation system is designed to eat up the limited financial resources of the poor, while allowing the richest to keep everything they earn."
https://abundantia.substack.com/p/eat-the-poor
22. "Long before he became a Hollywood superhero, Momoa says, he was a climbing bum. It all started when his mother, Coni, took him to the Needles, in South Dakota, when he was about 13. There a guide introduced him to bouldering. “I just became obsessed—my body felt beautiful,” he says. “I suck at walking and running, but when he put me on a wall, I could move.”
https://www.outsideonline.com/culture/books-media/jason-momoa-the-climb-chris-sharma
23. Important discussion on geopolitical risk in 2023: China's re-opening and the barbarian Russian invasion of Ukraine. Worth a read.
https://www.thelykeion.com/max-geopolitical-macro-uncertainty-in-q1-2
24. This is a good discussion: for founders or investors who have not been through a downturn.
Brad has been through 3 of them in his 30 years of investing in the tech sector.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1M6S2zdPf8
25. This guy is fearless. Really important discussion that is worth listening to.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jToRiehoX4E
26. Maximum bullish on Japan (yes I am biased but love the place).
"Perhaps, though, there actually might be a little bit at stake here. As Japan becomes a more open, globalized country, Western ideas and opinions have the potential to change Japan for the better. Outside perspectives could help Japan to solve the very real problems of the 2020s — corporate ossification, technological slowness, etc.
But if Westerners essentialize Japan — if they think of it as a country and culture frozen in amber — they won’t have much to offer the country in the here and now. Japan is, in fact, a very dynamic and changeable place."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/actually-japan-has-changed-a-lot
27. Pretty disturbing conversation on the drug cartel insurgency in Mexico & China's influence there (and fueled by America's addiction to drugs).
Hybrid warfare.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHxM8cX_OdA&t=5883s
28. Very valuable conversation with NIA boys on the edge of the internet. Good stuff.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nHtjGYZcsh8
29. "My point here is that AI research efforts have this kind of hedge fund quality to them, in that are different groups competing with each other in secret so that nobody has a birds-eye view of the whole space and can therefore say with any confidence when something really big is about to unfold in it.
In this respect, the AGI chatter is the Valley version of Wall Street rumors about a big trade that some whale is stuck in that’s supposedly going sideways, or about some other major move deep in the plumbing of the financial system."
https://www.jonstokes.com/p/agi-is-silicon-valleys-first-native
30. "The recent announcements of more aid to Ukraine, including Western main battle tanks, demonstrates only greater Western commitment to Ukraine’s cause. It also indicates that not only do Europe and America want Ukraine to defend itself. They wish to see Russia defeated.
Therefore, Putin’s view of being able to outwait the west may be another of his poor strategic assumptions. And, if Putin loses this war, it may just be the start of a cascading series of catastrophic events for Putin and Russia."
https://mickryan.substack.com/p/thinking-about-putin-and-russian
31. Disturbing but also possible thread. Conclusion is clear: it’s going to be messy in the world of the near future.
https://twitter.com/0xAlaric/status/1617623235222437891
32. Nothing wrong with biohacking if you can afford it.
"A middle-age software developer worth nine figures says he spends around $2 million each year to bio-hack his body into regaining its youth.
His goal is to eventually have all of his major organs — including his brain, liver, kidneys, teeth, skin, hair, penis and rectum — functioning as they were in his late teens, Johnson said.
The initiative, known as Project Blueprint, requires Johnson to abide by a strict vegan diet amounting to 1,977 calories per day, a daily exercise regimen that lasts an hour, high-intensity exercise three times a week, and going to bed every night at the same time.
“What I do may sound extreme, but I’m trying to prove that self-harm and decay are not inevitable,” Johnson told the outlet."
https://nypost.com/2023/01/25/bryan-johnson-45-spends-2m-to-get-18-year-old-body/amp/
33. This is a good discussion of geopolitics and lessons from the Cold War.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fr3GdJDMzA8
34. This was a fun interview on Unicorn Bakery. Check it out.
35. This is pretty stark information on demographics in the orthodox world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuhgLlxJMkU
36. Interesting observation.....
https://twitter.com/wander_investor/status/1618568161179357184
37. Not a fan of Davos or the crowd there but it’s where the elites meet and is a signal for where things are at on technology, economic and geopolitics fronts.
“Chips on Shoulders, Leads to Chips in Pockets”: The Rage to Compete
I love that Josh Wolfe quote. No one exemplifies this more than Michael Jordan. Just watch this Michael Jordan acceptance speech at the Hall of Fame Enshrinement.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLzBMGXfK4c
He calls out the player who made it over him in high school basketball. He calls out Coach Leroy who picked someone over him. He had so many people who rejected or put him down which turned into that competitive will to win. I see that rage and fire was what drove him.
Not sure if we should admire this or feel bad for him. But he said “He Just wanted to Win” and did he ever! This is why he is one of the greats. Leading the Chicago Bulls to multiple championships and now as billionaire businessman worth $1.7B as of 2022.
I’ve also noticed that all of my best founders and everyone I know who are super successful in what they do, whether in investing, academia, arts, business and sports all share this trait. A massive chip on their shoulder and lots to prove which translate into a crazy good work ethic and competitive drive.
I’ve spoken about the things that drive me. My rage when I see stupid things or unfair things. Or probably mainly about proving myself versus the folks who talked down to me when I was growing up. And even frankly when I was starting my career here in Silicon Valley. Anger at perceived disrespect. I still feel this way after 22+ years here, 450+ investments, hopefully a decent track record as an operator and investor. Somewhat known in the industry. Yet I still feel like an outsider with much to prove.
Not sure this is a good thing. Speaking with my therapist, I admit it’s been great for my career & business in general as I’ve done alright. But in family life and for my own personal internal peace, this is a terrible thing.
It’s like you have a tool or tactic that has worked so well for you in the past but due to different circumstances it is no longer useful. Yet you have a hard time letting go or dropping it. I find myself in this situation now. I know it no longer serves me, yet I am still trapped in this loop.
I think we all have found ourselves in this situation. I’m learning to channel this rage and chip on my shoulder into my health. I’m learning to let go. I’m learning to forgive myself and others. I probably saw more into the situation than they did or had meant. Ultimately I’m learning how to step back and on trying (stress on “try”) not take everything so personally.
I just need to be grateful and to focus on the bigger picture. That and executing against my big priorities with the big goals of a strong family, building out my portfolio businesses and having a positive impact in the world. The rest will take care of itself.
Typecasting vs Transformation: Career Lessons from Hollywood
I like Chris Evans as an actor and it’s been fun watching him transform from the noble characters he normally plays in past movies, especially the high profile Captain America in the Marvel universe. I have enjoyed watching him play the bad guy in “Gray man”. As Lloyd Hansen, the character has no moral ethics, low impulse control and actively enjoys and engages in illegal torture. A character that is the exact opposite of hero Captain America and pretty much all his other previous roles. Other actors who exemplify this are Ed Norton, Daniel Radcliffe, Christian Bale who display an extremely wide range of movies, genres and characters.
This is what I call the Transformation approach: or maybe better known as the generalist or polymath approach. Being good at a bunch of different things. Showing a wide range.
The other approach is to play the exact same role in every movie and show. Otherwise known as typecasting. Defined: 1: to cast (an actor or actress) in a part calling for the same characteristics as those possessed by the performer. 2: to cast (an actor or actress) repeatedly in the same type of role.
Look at Robert Deniro, he plays the hardened tough gangster or just a general tough guy. Or Bruce Willis or Dwayne Johnson. I love these guys as they are hardworking and generally great people. But they literally play the same character in every single movie they are in. Also usually action/adventure movies. And don’t get me wrong, you can make an amazing living doing this.
Both paths work if you want Longevity. But personally I think the more interesting route is the transformation route. You have to push yourself on your range and experiences. Also it’s probably also just less boring and you probably do need to be challenging yourself all the time if you want to grow.
With how quickly the world is changing, I think the typecast route aka specialization can still work. But it will be harder to stay relevant without developing a wider range of skills and experiences.
I think about all the different iterations of my own career. I learned so much from every phase & iteration. And the knowledge and experience has become relevant and useful in some unexpected ways. To each their own path but I do think the future belongs to the generalist here. Frankly, life is just much more interesting with variety.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Jan 22nd, 2023
“If people are doubting how far you can go, go so far that you can’t hear them anymore.” —Michele Ruiz
This is a great geopolitical discussion with lessons from history and the Cold War. Very insightful.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXq8RTN6tOw
2. "As of Q3 2022, $223.6B was invested in venture funds¹, but despite the record numbers of new funds being launched, the majority of this capital was invested in well-established, brand-name funds with long track records and collectively, billions of assets under management.
Yet, emerging managers and smaller funds deliver outsized returns. Cambridge Associates found that new and developing firms are consistently among the top 10 performers in the venture capital asset class, accounting for 72% of the top returning firms between 2004–2016.²
Similarly, Greenspring Associates found that across 180 partnerships, their investments in emerging managers “outperformed relative to their established counterparts”, delivering net IRR 0.87% above established managers.³ Investing in emerging funds, many of which are led by diverse fund managers, also unlocks additional alpha as diverse fund managers outperformed the median performer in 11 of the 14 years studied.⁴"
https://medium.com/@cakeventures/introducing-cake-ventures-fund-i-aka-reasonable-doubt-67bb8ab37b36
3. "It is capital D DUMB to focus only on one thing ever and not diversify your earnings.
Money as a tool is a superpower. Money as a mission is a disease."
https://ckarchive.com/b/wvu2hgh53n283
4. Fascinating: long complex supply chains have been with us since pre-modern times ie. 3000 years ago.
"Evidence of an ancient tin pipeline stretching more than 3,000 kilometers from mining sites in present-day Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to merchant ships carrying processed tin in the eastern Mediterranean is particularly striking, says anthropologist Michael Frachetti of Washington University in St. Louis.
“That complex tin network was an early version of modern-day supply chains for commodities such as gas and oil,” Frachetti says."
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/supply-chains-3000-years-bronze-age-shipwreck
5. "The big question for this product has always been whether NFT buyers would purchase digital collectibles on a centralized web2 platform.
The early answer is yes, users will buy digital collectibles on Instagram. In fact, the first collections have all sold out.
But with the NFT marketplace, Instagram has early signs of product market fit.
We also have a very quiet NFT rally. And in an industry where hype often exceeds reality, quiet is a good thing."
https://chapterone.substack.com/p/a-very-quiet-nft-rally
6. This is one of the most discussed topics in America: how do we rebuild our industrial base & making sure they are secure. Josh Steinman is really sharp.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0W1q1mRkwt8
7. Yikes is all I have to say.
"Now according to Forbes, the same publication that picked Javice to join its prestigious list of overachievers, JPMorgan is suing Javice for inventing 93% of its client roster.
In reality, nearly 4.27 million names complete with addresses, dates of birth, and other personal information were allegedly invented out of thin air to pass the bank’s due diligence process. At the time the deal was struck, Frank had in fact fewer than 300,000 customers, JPMorgan claims."
https://fortune.com/2023/01/12/fintech-jp-morgan-chase-frank-charlie-javice-lawsuit
8. "Lesson: There is no advantage in being the first or ML-first; you win with a value-driving product and distribution that potentially can lead to a flywheel.
Some ML-powered companies will win, but less so because of models alone and more so because of their engineering and algorithmic savviness, e.g., by stitching multiple AI systems together"
https://vietle.substack.com/p/defensible-machine-learning
9. This is an investor to watch!
"Woodard, a veteran of startups and VC for two decades, was more interested in new businesses driving demographic change in a handful of very specific areas three complementary “layers” of a cake: our aging and longevity-minded population; the increased earning power of women in society; and the shift to “majority-minority,” as Woodard put it, a “new majority” of early tech adopters coming from Asian, Black and Latino backgrounds."
“I’ve said before that raising a fund is doing venture capital on hard mode. And raising a fund as a woman is like crawling through glass, and raising a fund as a Black woman is like crawling through glass with no clothes on, and then they pour fire ants all over you,” she said. “So it was always going to be hard.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkonrad/2023/01/12/monique-woodard-new-fund-cake-ventures
10. Rise of the rest in America. Centralization versus decentralization in innovation. We can learn a lot from history.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2NOTih60pHI
11. Lots of good insights here on AI and whats happening with Open AI & Microsoft.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiMTRQXBol0
12. Lots of important things happening in Defense-tech space: being led by Anduril. Good overview here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOuF8vdKfbk
13. Damn, this is a very important discussion. A must listen for all founders and investors who want to know what is happening right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7DDHY_NONw
14. Paul Ehrlich and the De-growth movement has caused incredible damage to the world and human civilization.
Sadly it seems WEF crowd still seems to espouse this in their proposed policies.
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-paul-ehrlich-got-everything-wrong
15. The ultimate niche: a "twins" focused business.
https://thehustle.co/how-two-sisters-monopolized-the-identical-twins-business
16. "Change brings risk to incumbents, who are incentivized to suppress it. Thus, a key role of government is to ensure efforts to suppress competition are blocked. Unfortunately, lawmakers have become addicted to expensive sleeping pills supplied by incumbents presenting a compelling offer:
Here’s a shit-ton of money, and all you have to do is … nothing. Our regulators at the FTC and DOJ are stirring, but still not awake from a four-decade slumber."
https://www.profgalloway.com/compete
17. "We’re just starting to learn how to use ChatGPT. By now you’ve seen countless threads explaining how to use it for XYZ. But I think Marketing stand the most to gain from ChatGPT. It’s ability to analyze information is unmatched.
You can use it to:
-Break down sales letters
-Generating product angle ideas
-Have it create content around buying personas
-Re-word old articles
-Generate ideas for SEO articles"
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/the-upside-case-on-chatgpt-with-bowtiedsystems
18. A worthy discussion on how to thrive in the solo entrepreneur and creator economy. All about winning the psychological game in self employment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khV8fK6zg5E
19. This is an excellent discussion on how to thrive as a business of one and in the creative sphere.
So many learnings from one of the best, Jack Butcher.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A50di7VxI0I
20. This is a great idea. Candlemaxxing.
https://twitter.com/byPeterParadise/status/1614328327367708672
21. "China wants the technology to produce chips. That's why the US, a source of much of the tech, is cutting Beijing off.
The two countries are clearly engaged in an arms race in the Asia Pacific, says Chris Miller, author of Chip Wars and associate professor at Tufts University.
But, he adds, there's more to the race: "[It] takes place both in traditional spheres, like numbers of ships, or missiles produced but increasingly, it's taking place in terms of the quality of Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms that can be employed in military systems."
For now, the US is winning - but the chip war it has declared on China is reshaping the global economy."
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-64143602
22. "If we want to understand the economy of tomorrow, we should consider what people are wearing today. Why? Because if art sends telling signals about the economy, then fashion sends especially strong signals about sentiment. After all, this is the art that humans wear.
People are cocooning. It looks like everything is a meaningless chaotic jumble hidden under cozy clothes that message, “I don’t live by the old rules anymore.” What will emerge from all this? I suspect a fresh new wave of creative thinking, entrepreneurial energy, and redefined norms. The old normcore was just a clothing style. The new normcore is societal. When this many people break that many fashion rules, something really cool is going on."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/fashion-signals-schlumpy-goblins
23. This is a good geopolitical overview of what's happening in the world. Jacob Shapiro of Lykeion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jB_FUvV0syc
24. This war is still going on. Please continue to support Ukraine against the barbarian Russian armed forces #SlavaUkraini
"Staying alive in a Ukrainian trench requires a daunting combination of stamina, vigilance, and luck. The daily misery induces a mental fatigue that dulls alertness and subverts morale.
But even the most disciplined soldier, with the most elaborate foxhole, can fall victim to a well-aimed munition, and the menace of sudden death plagues every Ukrainian infantryman charged with the imperative, terrible job of holding the line.
Similarly, whereas Doc’s tours in Iraq and Afghanistan had scheduled end dates, Legion members must decide for themselves when to stop fighting. The fact that Ukrainians like Rambo and Grek lack such agency makes quitting all the more fraught.
Doc agreed with President Zelensky’s assertion that the war was about much more than just Ukraine—that no less than the future of democracy might be governed by its outcome. “And this is the problem,” he told me. “Because how am I different from these Ukrainian soldiers, then, if I believe that?
More than any other foreign volunteer I met, Doc seemed to be genuinely motivated by a conviction that the conflict was “a clear case of right and wrong.” I sometimes wondered to what extent his desire to participate in such an unambiguously just war was connected to his previous military career. The cause for which he is fighting in Ukraine is righteous because it consists of one country resisting occupation by another."
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/01/02/trapped-in-the-trenches-in-ukraine
25. “Living the Dream”
This is a tongue in cheek expression on Wall Street. This is because it’s a way of outwardly admitting you didn’t expect to be in this position.
No, you’re not struggling. No, you’re not well “respected” either.
In fact, no one really cares that you’re worth a million bucks and are in your mid 30s. You will find that this is quite common amongst a wide array of high paying positions.
The problem is this. How do you expect to catch up to the top 1% wealth when they make more than $400,000 on dividends/interest alone (top 1% wealth is $10M earning 4-5% in bonds/dividends = $400,000-$500,000.
Now that you’ve seen the math you can decide if this is glamorous or not. Life is a lot more expensive than most think especially if you plan on living in major cities."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/lifestyle-inflation-and-high-cost
26. "In summary, the case for allocating frozen Russian assets to Ukraine is compelling in my mind. The need is now, delay would increase the chances that Russia succeeds in its illegal war in Ukraine. Western Treasuries need to stop their opposition and foot dragging, and just get this done.
Putin has openly declared war the West, our governments need to wake up to this fact, and take the gloves off to ensure Ukraine is succesful in defeating Russia as our own best first line of defence.
Ukraine cannot be successful in defence and then recovery unless it is guaranteed the funds to succeed. Unless Western taxpayers are going to write big cheques, the only alternative source of funding is the $400bn in frozen Russian assets."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/allocate-frozen-russian-assets-to
27. "In reality, the logistical, planning, and organizational failures that stalled Russia’s advance and allowed Ukraine to recapture territory are likely to keep occurring. As long as its NATO partners keep increasing their support, Ukraine is well positioned to win the war."
28. "Russia has been losing far more than Ukraine, and having difficulty replacing their losses. As such, the Ukrainians are steadily closing the gap. The one exception to this is in soldiers, where the Russian figure jumps up significantly recently—this is from the forced drafting of soldiers which started in September—though this figure is deceptive as a large number of the Russian soldiers in this leap are basically untrained.
Also, what this slide doesn’t show, which others do, is the increase in effectiveness of Ukrainian equipment as it replaces Soviet legacy systems with NATO standard. Basically not only is the numerical gap between the two sides narrowing, the quality gap is growing wider—for Ukraine."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-11
29. "Many high-value knowledge-industry workers are now getting to decide where they want to live. Some might move to farms or sleepy exurbs. Others might choose the dirt-cheap real estate of a Rust Belt city. But I think many will want to live around other educated knowledge workers in a setting that’s a little quieter, safer, and more picturesque than New York City.
Where better to live than a college town? It has the peace and space of a suburb, but also has a dense concentration of smart people to befriend, to date, or to collaborate with in a less remote fashion. If you’re leaving New York City with your laptop in hand, why not go to Ann Arbor, or Madison, or College Station?
College towns should be doing their best to attract remote knowledge workers. This will require building cheap and plentiful housing, while investing in thriving downtown areas — two of the most important things a town can do to improve local quality of life. That will require overcoming local NIMBYs who want to freeze the town in a permanent stasis field. But then again, that’s a challenge that every American city is facing right now.
To sum up, I think that even though the near future of demand for undergrad education is looking grim, college towns are well-positioned to thrive and even extend the economic and social advantages they enjoyed in prior decades. Concentrating on academic research activity, and quality of life for remote workers, seems like the smartest path."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/how-college-towns-can-survive-and
30. "I’ve found it is far more useful to think of markets instead like a river with a current. As a founder (the ship’s captain), your job is to find the current, and then build the best ship (product) and team to ride it.
A strong current makes the actual job of being the captain a heck of a lot easier. You could have a plank of wood to start in a strong current, and you’ll still move a lot faster than a slick boat in stagnant waters."
https://sarahtavel.medium.com/find-a-fast-current-not-a-large-body-of-water-b477f855dfa
31. "Sometimes when I say that people respond with “Oh Admiral, you’re right, you know it’s a war of ideas.” No, it’s not a war of ideas – it is a marketplace of ideas.
Our ideas can compete in that marketplace, but we need to communicate them clearly, coherently, and boldly, without a shred of arrogance or self-righteousness, but with confidence as well."
https://time.com/6245243/america-division-optimism
32. Things seem to be changing in Germany. New Defense minister coming in soon who hopefully does not suck like the last one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGkzPGBkGhw
33. This is an eye-opening conversation. Scary stuff, USA & west is stuck in woke BS & ESG.
This is while China is wrecking us quietly through sending us fentanyl, propaganda, corrupting our politicians & controlling key areas like solar energy panels & Cobalt.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66phzM0k7Lk
34. "In Merritt’s definition, “quality” is defined in terms of a company’s revenue model, not the company itself. This distinction is important, since the vast majority of high-growth startups do not become profitable until many years in. True innovation takes time and money, which is why venture capital exists in the first place.
Thus, a “flight to quality” in venture capital does not (and should not) be interpreted as a flight to profitable or near-profitable companies only.
Unfortunately, in countries outside of the US, that’s often the case."
https://chrisneumann.com/blog/canada-cant-afford-a-flight-to-fear
35. Fascinating & different view from Mainstream media. I don't agree with some of these points (ie. NATO being threat to Russia).
BUT we are fragmenting into a multipolar world & USA needs to get smarter & ramp up to compete with China & her allies. Important to get other sources & perspectives even if u don't agree with them.
https://mobile.twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1613924570725244928?s=19
36. Industrial espionage has been going on forever by every country. It’s also a key part of China's tool kit.
Wonder when the USA will finally wake up to this and take this threat seriously.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-64206950
37. Bullish on America and its rebuilding of the manufacturing industry here.
More on The Titanium Economy=America Re-Industrialization.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nBIGBgYdyS4&t=3s
38. "While Marin’s musings about a win for Ukraine are morally compelling and just, we will be signing up for a conflict that will not only ask us to keep arms and financial support going at full speed, it will also draw the West deeper into an intensely bloody and unpredictable conflict.
If we accept that scenario it is clear that there is no way out of this, barring negotiations which both parties are still light years away from.
The imagery of the mindless attacks on civilians in the Ukraine underline the necessity to act, they also highlight that there is no bottom to the depravity that Putin is willing to unleash on Ukraine."
https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/no-way-out
39. "This is our argument for why $4 million is the new $1 million from years ago. It is also our argument for why $1,000,000 won’t be all that much money in 2053. People forget that the cost of items go up over 30 year time frames.
No, we’re not saying to buy a house (in fact we expect prices to go down this year) but over the long-term it’ll go up. Emphasis: we would not buy any real estate especially in SE USA at this point in our cartoon opinion.
What Should You Do Instead? You should be joining the jungle and spinning up a WiFi business. All you need is a SINGLE one time event of $500,000. Not $1M. Not some crazy $10M VC exit. Just $500,000.
If you create a WiFi business that makes $166,000 per year, you could sell that for 3x earnings on Empire Flippers in many cases."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/4m-is-the-new-1m-and-why-retirement
40. Not surprised, it’s sad but inevitable. Google was so bloated.
https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/alphabet-to-lay-off-12000-employees-5109321
The Power of New Beginnings: Lessons from Past Great Adventurers and the Great Gatsby
Recently started a book called the “King’s Shadow” by Edmund Richardson, described as the
“extraordinary untold and wild journey of Charles Masson - think Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid meets Indiana Jones - and his search for the Lost City of Alexandria in the "Wild East" during the age of empires, kings, and spies.”
What an amazing story it is. He found that in the crazy quilt landscape of different people you could become whoever you want to be.
“Masson learned something important. When you walk into a room full of strangers, there’s a precious moment where you can become whoever you want to be: a prince or a beggar, a pilgrim or a scholar, a strong man or a weak one. If you tell your story well enough, you will be believed.”
You can literally recreate who you are, regardless of who or what you did before. It’s like the Silicon Valley “fake it till you make it” strategy before the term existed. This is why it’s important to move and live in new places. You have no anchors to the past of who you were so you can restart. This was why I moved to Asia from Canada after University, and then to the United States several years later.
America is still the place. A place where you immigrated and can start over and be who you can be. First from Europe to the eastern seaboard. Then as America became more civilized, many of their people moved toward the West for new opportunities and settled as pioneers. A brand new start.
As exemplified by the character of Jay Gatsby in the “Great Gatsby”, military vet turned bootlegger and multimillionaire “richer than god”, who recreates himself through pure will and lots of very good storytelling. Yes, he gets found out in the end but this is such an exemplary novel illustrating what is so unique about American culture. We don’t care where you come from, as long as you are willing to work hard, and have big ambitions, that’s all that matters.
This seems to slowly be eroding but I still see embers of this all across the USA which gives me hope. It’s much harder to do the completely brand new start now, as the world has gotten smaller. Networks are tighter and global. Plus, you have this thing called the internet, which makes it very hard to leave no footprints in the world.
But the world is still an immensely big place, full of wonderful opportunities and adventure. So don’t be afraid of new beginnings. If you are not happy where you are in life, in a relationship, in a job/career or even city. Change it all up. Restart. As Herman Hesse said “There is a miracle in every new beginning.”
Overcoming Setbacks: the Mental Challenge for ALL Entrepreneurs
One of the hardest things as a startup founder is that the highs are very high and the lows are incredibly low. And sometimes they all happen on the same day.
You win a big customer account but then your best engineer quits.
You have plenty of customers and revenue but they refuse to pay or are delaying paying the account receivables leading to a cash crunch.
You get a term sheet but the investor drags on the due diligence far beyond the 30 days standard while you are slowly running into insolvency
You sign the top notch executive hire you’ve been chasing for a year but then your lead investor decides to pull their term sheet.
Note: Yes, the last two points do happen often sadly, although usually not Silicon Valley VC funds who know this kills their reputation. Usually east coast hedge fund or PE firm players which is why i hate them.
I hate the stories being bandied around in the media of how successful entrepreneurs just had this unending series of successes or even the idea of overnight success from nowhere. Almost every successful founder I know who has done well, and I mean “hundreds of millions or billion dollars” well, had so many “we’re out of money'' near death moments in the course of their startup. Everyone of them has had to manage their psychology so they can work their way through these times.
Frankly as our society and life has gotten more tumultuous, being more resilient and stoic in the face of setbacks is critical.
You get that bill that you weren’t expecting. An unexpected expense or cost in the business that comes up. Accounts receivables or investment that just doesn’t seem to show up in time.
For someone like myself, who is a planner, who likes structure, hates change and has deep emotional issues with money (or lack thereof), I’ve really struggled with dealing with these types of small setbacks in a constructive and calm way. Leon Castillo said “the more you despair, the less you’ll achieve.”
I only learned this the hard way in 2020 and developed some tactics to cope better with this:
I’ve had to flip my psychology to welcoming these challenges and obstacles as learning opportunities ie. you screwed up or miscalculated somewhere, so go fix it.
Also that it’s a privilege to be in this position, as Louis Hays wrote “a bill is an acknowledgement of our ability to pay.”
I’ve had to build time and money buffers into my plans as I tend to manage things far too tightly.
Getting lots of sun, going for walks to the beach (I am in California after all :) and talking through these issues with good friends helps a lot too. Not just mindlessly trying to grind my way through it or bang my head against the wall. It helps to step away from the situation and normal environments to get a new perspective & new ideas.
Basically, I had to really learn the mindset from my successful founder friends on how to manage my psychology better, thus being in a better place to overcome these situations faster and more efficiently and in a slightly less painful manner too.
If you like stability in life, this is a hard way to live. But the entire world is becoming more unstable as we’ve been seeing since 2020. So this entrepreneurial mode is going to be the default way that most of us will be forced to live. Even if we are dragged into it kicking and screaming. This entrepreneur thing is very hard and that is why all founders need to be applauded & encouraged in what they do.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Jan 15th, 2023
“Don’t limit yourself. Many people limit themselves to what they think they can do. You can go as far as your mind lets you. What you believe, remember, you can achieve.” —Mary Kay Ash
Valuable discussion with Keith Rabois on the startup world in the beginning of 2023: lots to learn from this conversation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CD5yIUcFWdo
2. Lots of knowledge bombs from Luke Belmar. Sharp dude and we can all learn here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uuk8j0DJoiM
3. This is a good demographic overview for Europe. It's a bit grim.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGkELtG8IMw
4. Ehrlich and his de-growth movement have done nothing but hurt society and the environment ironically. This movement btw is deeply entrenched and propagated by the Schaub and the WEF.
"Ehrlich represents that segment of the environmental movement that wants fewer humans to live less well on this planet. For this group, the nuclear power renaissance seemingly happening all over the world, as well as the recent nuclear fusion breakthrough, is hardly good news.
Not only do they see abundant, cheap, reliable power as energizing more consumption, but it might eventually remove climate change as a reason for humans to have a lighter environmental footprint. The threat of a chaotic climate has served such worriers well after their 1970s predictions of impending starvation and resource depletion didn’t pan out."
https://fasterplease.substack.com/p/paul-ehrlich-interview-on-60-minutes
5. This is how critical microchips are to the world. Important to understand.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWLVVBOX0zs
6. Still a believer in the Creator economy, it was never as great as folks said before, and it's not as bad as this article reports.
It will come back and believe this is the future of distribution of Consumer goods.
"After years of hype, the Creator Economy is slamming into reality. Influencer programs are shuttering. Investment is drying up. And worsening economic conditions are threatening to crush creators and the tech infrastructure behind them."
https://www.bigtechnology.com/p/the-creator-economy-was-way-overblown
7. New supply chains are being set now. A new world of ally-shoring and redundancy: which means higher prices and inflation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2FYLe_Ci8EY
8. "Tiger Global’s plan to invest $1 billion of its leaders’ personal money in early-stage venture funds backfired when its limited partners balked at the strategy. The pushback showed how even the most prolific venture fundraisers have come under more pressure from their LPs.
Tiger’s change of heart damaged its reputation with some of the startup investors, which could make it harder for the firm to win startup deals in the future."
9. Love this show: this week is really damn good. Good setup for 2023.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3UjMit3xGY&t=765s
10. Love this: be disciplined and be patient. Know the fundamentals and don't be a victim to volatility. Key to investing in everything.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMIkvWQzHgs
11. Some good macro economic predictions for 2023. Interesting data points for the discerning investor.
https://haymaker.substack.com/p/2023-whats-trending-whats-ending
12. An amazing overview of the microchip landscape and its effect on geopolitics. It’s so important to understand.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S7mBPyJHkrs
13. "Plotted on a map, such a coalition would bear an uncanny resemblance to the federation proposed by Józef Piłsudski in the years immediately following the First World War.
This Intermarium (from the Latin for “between the seas), Marshal Piłsudski believed, would protect the smaller countries of Eastern Europe, not only from the threats posed by either Germany or Russia, but also from the nightmare scenario of an alliance between Germany and Russia."
https://tacticalnotebook.substack.com/p/intermarium-20
14. Very big fan of Lux Capital and Anduril and Defense-tech in general. Mr Wolfe is super smart dude. Defense-tech matters as Ukraine has shown us.
"Across the Valley, that sentiment seems to be winning converts. Amid increasing tensions with China, a renewed Cold War with Russia and a flood of support for embattled Ukraine, Wolfe and other investors believe the tech world is coming around to their way of thinking.
“Silicon Valley for the last 10 years—maybe up until 2021—was very hostile to defense as a whole, and that’s definitely changing,” said Lucas Bagno, an investor who has backed defense tech startups for the generalist firm Village Global. After years of unpopular wars, Bagno sees within venture ranks a newfound appreciation for the U.S. military and an eagerness to aid in its modernization.
Isaac Hasson, an investor at Vine Ventures, has seen VCs who previously would never have touched a defense company suddenly throwing their hat in the ring. “Before the decade is closed, I think that you will have very few top-tier funds with no exposure to defense,” he said. The numbers back up that prediction: According to PitchBook, the past two years have shattered records for venture investment in aerospace and defense tech companies, with an average of $6.7 billion invested per year, triple the number for 2019.
For proof that working with the government can be good business for startups, VCs look no further than Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which has scored $1.2 billion in contracts for national security since 2020.
If you ask Wolfe, the new groundswell of support couldn’t have come soon enough.
“There’s a reawakening to the reality of the world: It isn’t just Kim Kardashian and Kanye [West] and popping bottles and crypto bubbles. There are bad actors and there are bad people,” he said. “If you go to Anduril and talk to the employees, they really feel a sense of purpose in a way that the employees at Facebook don’t. There’s much more meaning in truly saving human lives.”
15. The most important but relatively unknown company in the world that helps drive the growth of the microchip revolution: ASML. This is a great documentary on them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSVHp6CAyQ8
16. The problems with Venture capital go all the way to LPs, not just with the funds. The more things change, the more they say the same.....not in a good way.
"If ever there was a moment for the institutions that fund VCs to use their leverage and push back — on how fast funds are raised, or the industry’s lack of diversity, or the hurdles that must be reached before profits can be divided — now would seemingly be the time.
Yet in numerous conversations with LPs this week, the message to this editor was the same. LPs aren’t interested in rocking the boat and putting their allocation in so-called top tier funds at risk after years of solid returns."
17. This is funny but yet it’s also a serious issue. This is everyday for me in Silicon Valley.
Surrounded by so many successful and younger investors and founders than me, you feel like a loser all the time.
https://junglegym.substack.com/p/how-to-cope-when-you-meet-someone
18. Good way to think about the future. A threat on the emerging markets and how to position yourself personally and business wise.
https://mobile.twitter.com/BowTiedRobin/status/1612132592236597248
19. This is a good discussion on the future of work. Millerd has written THE book on careers, being self employed and how to thrive in this new environment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-Bx_EYQV6o
20. "Instead, if you’re at all worried about modern-day Fuggers shaping our world to benefit themselves, and gradually removing your ability to access equal business opportunity, you’ll have to take radical control of your own personal situation.
In other words, there’s never been a better time to make yourself as immune as possible from the machinations of the über-powerful.
Make 2023 the year you finally decide to detach yourself from living within the bounds of just a single nation, and take steps to acquire a second (or maybe third) citizenship or residency in a country that’s more open and free. Because while Europe and the West may be going down an obvious path of big government and increased regulation, the rest of the world isn’t so quickly following this trend.
Or spend this year focusing on increasing your independent income, or making smart investments that will grow your own personal wealth to safeguard your quality of life for the future. Or take steps to reorganise your business by offshoring it in a nation like Georgia, to lower your tax liability while increasing freedom of business opportunity.
Maybe it’s time to do what I do at the start of any new year: write two or three high-level goals that will increase my level of overall life freedom."
https://abundantia.substack.com/p/those-sneaky-fuggers
21. This is a solid discussion on the importance of understanding geopolitics in the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNruT_lV53Q
22. Defense-tech is here. Peace through strength. Good convo with Trae Stephens of Founders Fund & Anduril.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9SdKN3FBL4
23. "No Man’s land. At this point you’re likely a millionaire particularly if you include home equity.
The problem is that your ability to move the net worth range is collapsing. While you may be making $400K instead of $200K (a few years ago), when you factor in some lifestyle inflation, higher taxes and likely more responsibilities (unless single), it’s tough to save more than $100-150K *post tax*. This would be a 5.0-7.5% move to your net worth if you have $2,000,000. Only 10-20 more years of grind!
Upper Class. If you pierce the upper class, the math is clear as day. If you return 10% on $10,000,000 that is *more* money than an upper middle class person can earn in *two years*. This also assumes you have *no* income. Highly unlikely situation.
The Real 4% Rule: Now you can see why people get stuck in No-Mans land. If you want a phrase for this… it is HENRY (High Earning Not Rich Yet).
When you work for an entire year and struggle to *save* a 5% move to your net-worth… de-motivation sets in."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/going-through-levels-of-wealth
24. This is sad to me. I hope Barry and DCG are able to get through this.
They are in a tough spot like many big players in Crypto these days.
https://newsletter.banklesshq.com/p/anatomy-of-the-dcg-dumpster-fire
25. Fascinating discussion on why Japanese software has been terrible up until recently: Keiretsu structure and bad incentives. But it's changing fast.
"As we talk here together at the start of 2023, what does the future look like for Japanese software?
Japan has had a lot of catching up to do over the past fifteen years. After basically sitting out the global PC and dot-com revolutions, Japanese software developers have been making up for lost time and in the startup space. Japan is developing a competitive software market in some areas, but on average, there is still a long way to go.
Japan’s once dominant Systems Integrators will continue to see their power decline. Their customer lock-in is fading fast, and B2B software startups are letting Japanese enterprises leapfrog to modern IT systems for less than costs to maintain their SI-run legacy systems.
The SIs won’t disappear, of course. There will always be a need for good systems integrators, and the more forward thinking ones are already trying to reinvent themselves. However, the days when the days when SIs dictated their clients’ IT strategy are coming to a close.
That is a very good thing for Japanese software, Japanese startups, and Japanese competitiveness as a whole."
https://www.disruptingjapan.com/the-forgotten-mistake-that-killed-japans-software-industry
26. "Globally, there are 320 million crypto users which isn’t exactly web3, but that’s 4.2% of the global popular, so we have ways to go. (1)
A largest number of the most influential web2 companies and brands recently released or will soon launch web3 initiatives and already have distribution.
The products are easy to use and the web3 features are abstracted to feel like web2 product experiences. The UX/UI is pretty simple, so we no longer have that excuse.
In 2023, we have the opportunity to onboard the next billion users to web3 and that alone should make us optimistic. Building real utility is what matters most now.
There are enough smart engineers, designers, and product missionaries still building in this bear market, and expectations are remarkably low - which is always the best time to experiment."
https://chapterone.substack.com/p/optimism-in-web3
27. Seems like a good move from China's perspective. First step in warming off relations with the US and EU?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fHs8wqj3WQY&list=RDCMUCsy9I56PY3IngCf_VGjunMQ&start_radio=1
28. Rise of regions. We've always been regions. Globalization as a myth.
Good discussion of the future structures of the world economy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZyJ-GrxY-k
29. "A big piece of growing up and maturing financially, is your attitude towards money, how it works, and what it is good for/can do for you.
Whether you’re dropping $10,000 on a new Rolex, $2,000+ a year for a premium gym membership, or throwing $50,000 at a new real estate investment, one thing you absolutely cannot do when it comes to money is have a scarcity mentality.
That is, you clench onto money and view it as finite."
https://arbitrageandy.substack.com/p/the-simple-blueprint-for-getting
30. Excellent advice for founders and investors. Be Macro aware but Micro obsessed.
"No one can control the macro. It’s a complex adaptive system based on so many different variables that it makes heads spin. What can be controlled is the micro. The inputs to the business that better position the company for the long term utilizing the context of the macro to inform decision making. Hence, why we still need to be macro aware, but only obsess over the micro."
https://shomik.substack.com/p/be-macro-aware-micro-obsessed
31. The power of social media and influencers. They are not all bad.
This is a heartwarming story. Love to see more like this.
32. There is much wisdom in this thread. A new definition of rich.
https://twitter.com/thedankoe/status/1612783833228738561
33. Politics, VC & all the loss of trust in society & institutions. Important discussion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8pkFKHtmgOY
34. "There are wars that matter to the world economy, which are not very easy to see. In 2022 I talked about the importance of Hot Wars in Cold Places (space, the high seas, the Arctic) and Cold Wars in Hot Places (superpowers contesting spaces in Africa and the Pacific for strategic footholds and hard assets like food, energy, and minerals). But, there are other materially important wars that we need to understand if we are going to navigate the future better. These wars are invisible.
For example, the war among the superpowers is increasingly invisible. It’s about silent and invisible tech. The British Intelligence Service apparently dismantle their official cars “surgically down to the last nut and bolt” and yet recently discovered that the Chinese Government had “at least one SIM card capable of transmitting location data was discovered in a sweep of government and diplomatic vehicles which uncovered ‘disturbing things,’ a serving security source confirmed.” This “hybrid warfare” has been around for a long time, but it’s intensifying.
For example, it’s not about confronting the opposing military. It’s about invisibly attacking the opponent’s civilians through the use of “digital Fentanyl” called Tik Tok and other methods that influence social coherence and cohesion. Special Forces are increasingly invisible too. They are present and yet not present. They are using a new way of warfighting known as “by, with, and through,” which involves teaching and supporting local partners rather than fighting themselves."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/invisible-wars
35. Good winter weather in Europe. Lots of economic and geopolitical implications.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o49oovm1fRs
36. Some disturbing macro forecasts. Rise of gold, silver and commodity and commodity driven currencies which will lead to rise of multipolar world and decline of USD global currency.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNR851IFhWQ
37. Life as a super creator & entrepreneur. You have to be obsessed, managing your psychology but also resting and playing the long game. Solid interview with Mr Beast.
To be Great, you have to Risk Looking Stupid: Big Swings Lead to Big Wins and Losses
Listening to the excellent “All in Podcast”, Chamath makes a great comment about Masayoshi Son over at Softbank.
“People don’t seem to understand that if you are going to attempt to be great there are going to be moments when you look the exact opposite of great. You know The guy who takes the final shot is the guy who can miss the final shot. And here is the guy over his 50 year career has had some huge ups and downs. This is also the same guy who found a way to rip in 25-30 Million dollars and turn it into 125 Billion off of Alibaba.
It takes enormous amounts of courage. It’s hard to put lots of money to work. The same person who can make 125 billion, is the same guy who can lose 30 billion.”
And I think this reflects the greats in every single field of life. You have to take big risks and take big swings. This is the case in Hollywood, this is the case as an investor in almost any field and is the whole game of Startups & entrepreneurship: the ultimate big swing and bet on yourself.
I learned this in Venture Capital. If your portfolio looks safe, you are probably not taking big enough risks. You are not betting on the right industries, companies and founders. It’s pretty safe and easy to just invest on traction or the 2nd or 3rd time successful founder. This is unsurprisingly the strategy for many established VC funds and angel investors. And this is also why many of them don’t drive good returns on their investments. As investor extraordinaire Naval Ravikant states “The larger the herd, the lower the returns.”
Safety is risky. All my returns have come from betting on founders, geographies and sectors that were at that time seen as unusual, too risky and controversial. Looking back they were just misunderstood. This is what makes being great in VC so hard. Outlier startups drive all the returns. And you need a massive level of conviction. Plus have the courage and willingness to put money and action behind your conviction. Learn not to care too much what other people think. In fact, consensus can be very dangerous.
We should follow and do what the best capital allocators do here. As the founder of Amazon, Jeff Bezos wisely said: “We are willing to think long-term. We start with the customer and work backwards. And, very importantly, we are willing to be misunderstood for long periods of time.”
Ronin Versus Samurai: Career Lessons from Medieval Japan
I have long been very open about my deep interest and love for all things Japanese. History, art, architecture. And the Food! The culture of craftsmanship, honor, discipline and self sacrifice.
All exemplified by the samurai. Samurai which means warrior or knight whose sole purpose is to serve.
“They were the well-paid retainers of the daimyo (the great feudal landholders). They had high prestige and special privileges such as wearing two swords. They cultivated the bushido codes of martial virtues, indifference to pain, and unflinching loyalty, engaging in many local battles. Though they had predecessors in earlier military and administrative officers, the samurai truly emerged during the Kamakura shogunate, ruling from c.1185–1333. They became the ruling political class, with significant power but also significant responsibility.
During the 13th century, the samurai proved themselves as adept warriors against the invading Mongols. During the peaceful Edo era (1603 to 1868), they became the stewards and chamberlains of the daimyo estates, gaining managerial experience and education. (Source: Wikipedia)
Ronin were masterless Samurai. Actually in Japanese, it means Wave Man. It’s incredibly apt. A man left to surf the waves of change. According to Wikipedia: “It is an idiomatic expression for "vagrant" or "wandering man", someone who finds the way without belonging to one place. The term originated in the Nara and Heian periods, when it referred to a serf who had fled or deserted his master's land. In medieval times, the Ronin were depicted as the shadows of samurai, master-less and less honorable. It then came to be used for a samurai who had no master (hence the term "wave man" illustrating one who is socially adrift).”
Fascinating stuff. But the thing that was interesting for me was the implications for the modern working world. Samurai thrived during times of stability, but it’s my guess that it’s the Ronin that thrived in the tumultuous chaotic times because they were more used to literally rolling with the waves of change to survive. Samurai were all about loyalty. A ronin was about survival because you served yourself. A samurai being a 9-5-er, corporate/government salaryman. A Ronin being a freelancer, startupper or entrepreneur.
In stable economic times, it’s probably better financially and emotionally as an employee at a government institution or corporate. Be a samurai, you serve a lord and life in general is good and stable. The bigger the organization, the more you are hidden away from reality and market forces.
But in times of massive change, I’d argue it’s better being an entrepreneur like a Ronin. By nature you are closer to the change and market, and hence get better data and info on what’s really going on, so you can adapt better. If you happen to be a salaryman at a big company such as IBM in the 1950s-1970s, where times were relatively calm, this was a great place to be.
During the massive changes of the 1980s, after being hidden away for so long in the walls of Big Blue (nickname for IBM), workers there had no idea about the massive wave coming to wreck the business of your corporate master. A wave that would also inevitably wreck them financially as they were let go into a completely wild new working environment that they were totally unprepared for. Not sure if this analogy holds well. But it’s something I do think about.
Perhaps it’s why the career advice parents give their kids tends to be so wrong most of the time. It is well-intentioned and probably appropriate for when they grew up. But the world your children will grow up in has probably changed and this advice has become obsolete at best, dangerous at worst. It’s something I keep in mind for my kid. But if I am correct about the next half decade being incredibly tumultuous and volatile, you will be WAY better off thinking like a ronin than a samurai. Be a “wave man” and ride the waves of massive change coming.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Jan 8th, 2023
“All our dreams can come true, if we have the courage to pursue them.” —Walt Disney
Very bullish on Japan. Some of these predictions do seem very feasible.
https://japanoptimist.substack.com/p/japan-surprises-2023
2. "Remember when Carmack complained about Meta? He said the company was working at “half the effectiveness” and had “a ridiculous amount of people and resources, but we constantly self-sabotage and squander effort.” You could use those words to describe any other big company right now. Carmack wasn’t complaining about the resources or the talent.
He was complaining about the ineffectiveness of management by committee and the fearful attitudes of business experts who entered the boom towns of the 2010s and turned them into boring Victorian villages full of business majors sniping each other to climb the greasy pole of modern success.
I saw this happen once before. In the early 2000s, during the dot-com boom, I saw lots of business majors streaming to the Valley to turn companies like Palm and Cisco into behemoths. Like the aforementioned wasps, they feasted on the energy of those companies and turned them into also-rans and then, when they had made enough cash, the became VCs themselves.
Therefore the rich dudes who sank Yahoo and turned eBay into a den of scams are now the rich dudes who are sinking Twitter, Facebook, and crypto. Fear not, however: more rich assholes will pop out of the corpses of those companies to fund the company that will finally convince us to connect PCs to our brains via a hole drilled between our eyes."
https://startupstrats.substack.com/p/the-musk-method
3. Old profile but we can learn a lot from Mr Beckham.
"It’s a little odd, if you think about it: Three years into retirement, at that moment when most athletes begin their slow fade into paunchy irrelevance, David Beckham seems somehow bigger, more handsome and fit in an interesting way, and more ubiquitous as a cultural phenomenon than when he played. How is this even possible? He was recently dubbed People magazine’s Sexiest Man Alive, in part because he represents a different ideal of manhood...... With endorsement deals and fashion launches of his own, he made more money in his first year of retirement—$75 million—than he did in any of his playing years."
https://www.gq.com/story/david-beckham-cover-protecting-kids-brooklyn
4. "Any kid under Grandma’s quilt knows they are in a world someone has lovingly created for them. Maybe that helps explain why many people are walking away from their jobs. They seem to be committing to doing a different kind of work. If you happen to be unhappy in your work, maybe the answer is to love yourself.
Walk away. There’s a labor shortage out there. Dream up a new world that will inspire your creativity and actually pay you for it. Tomorrow’s economy may be richer for the self-investment that seems to be underway today. But don’t think every cosmopoiesis succeeds. Few do.
Technology is turbocharging the race for an economy that is ever-more efficient at producing an ever-higher standard of living. But our psychology needs to change if tomorrow’s world is to arrive at all.
What is enough? Do you have enough work and efficiency in your life? Do you have enough love, awe, art, magic, beauty, joy, and laughter? The economy needs both the efficient and the seemingly inefficient if it is going to generate and even survive the arrival of abundance."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/wishes-love-and-cosmopoiesis
5. What a surprise: a fast growing and poorly managed startup. In this case African darling Flutterwave in Nigeria.
This is the norm everywhere btw. Most founders are new to managing people & managing growth.
https://restofworld.org/2022/inside-the-scandal-at-flutterwave-nigerias-fintech-champion/
6. "Your plan for 2023 should be to increase your effective output.
This isn’t hours worked that I’m talking about. This is product shipped.
Whether that’s blog posts, videos, Tweets, or other exposure methods for your brand, you have to create way more output than you’re currently doing."
https://bowtiedopossum.substack.com/p/your-lack-of-output
7. I miss Anthony Bourdain, not sure if people knew he was really into Brazilian Jiujitsu & quite good.
Also he is an incredible writer as seen here: a very unique style.
https://www.bosshunting.com.au/sport/anthony-bourdain-brazilian-jiu-jitsu
8. This is a masterclass of venture investing & macro investing too. Power Law & Super cycles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfb00_wXqnI
9. This is an important discussion on the most critical sector of the economy and geopolitics: Microchips.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgUBktTdygQ
10. "The Swedes were neither the first nor the last European army to suffer the ravages of “General Winter” on Russia’s frontiers. Exacerbated by the vast expanse of the Eurasian landmass, winter fighting there has often proved to be the downfall of great armies. For centuries, this phenomenon has often worked to Russia’s advantage, as a succession of powerful militaries have succumbed to inadequate equipment, deficient supply lines, and poor preparation.
But as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine enters the harshest months of the year, there are many indications that this time it may be Russia, rather than its adversary, that suffers the worst consequences.
As both sides enter a far more challenging season of fighting, the outcome will largely depend on morale and determination. While Russian troops curse their shortages and lack of hot food, Ukrainian troops are now benefiting from supplies of insulated camouflage suits, tents with stoves, and sleeping bags provided by Canada and the Nordic nations. Putin seems to be in denial about the state of his army and the way that General Winter will favor his opponents."
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/russias-new-winter-war
11. "Yet Ukraine, as viewed from Europe and North America, and trumping other strategic and humanitarian crises, has monopolised political and media attention, aid and assistance efforts, and the popular imagination to an unprecedented degree. Knock-on cost of living increases ensured the war hit home in the west.
All the same, other international crises, actual or looming, will demand increased attention and resources in 2023. Three geopolitical battlegrounds in particular may be harder to ignore: China’s domineering behaviour in east Asia, the Middle East quagmire, and US-Europe tensions."
12. Japan is arming up fast, understandable as China under CCP takes an increasingly aggressive stance across Asia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9MQRg-c9aU
13. "A chip war for global AI supremacy between China and the US, new kinds of chips proliferating, the consolidation of MLOps companies into a LAMP stack for AI, a coming burst of dedicated training and inference powerhouses, and the rise of AI driven businesses and foundation models as a services, FMaaS all mean one thing:
The dawn of the age of industrialized AI.
That's where we start to see the rapid acceleration of AI chips, software, ideas and uses as companies around the world pour money, people and time into the pursuit of ever smarter software and machines.
The spark is already lit. AI busted out of the walls of Big Tech R&D labs. Now regular people and traditional coders and business people are getting their hands on super powerful models and taking them in bold new directions. Synthetic medial images. Image to 3D. Mega music creators. Powerful virtual assistants. Self-driving tractors and trucks. AI driven businesses will sprout like mushrooms after a long rain."
https://danieljeffries.substack.com/p/the-age-of-industrialized-ai
14. It’s important to learn from the greats in VC investing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOa7GJyafoM
15. This is an excellent fireside chat with the controversial Chamath. But there is a lot of good insight in investing.
How do you build heat? Have something interesting to say.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q09N5tE7G24
16. 2023 is gonna be rough as globalization unwinds.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oARuhc4TwYY&t=320s
17. This is a great discussion on geopolitics in the Middle East.
American foreign policy is just so thoughtless and short term.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhX-YAdCIds
18. This looks interesting: takes place in John Wick universe.
https://manofmany.com/entertainment/john-wick-spin-off-ballerina-gabriel-byrne
19. Investing is not a team sport. Interesting view. Rings somewhat true to me and contrary to tropes everywhere.
Good interview here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcWbyS_ovaI
20. Good convo on climate tech investing. Sacca and LowerCarbon capital.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-jLpICAGOc
21. "What goes on inside Beijing’s forbidden city is, as ever, inscrutable. But one thing China’s leadership knows or should know is this: the economics of a move against Taiwan is not good. An invasion or blockade would cost China’s already beleaguered economy dearly.
Economics, of course, can never tell the whole story, and often takes a back seat to geopolitics and national pride. But to the extent that anyone in Beijing is listening, the economics makes a strong case for the moderation."
22. "Finding the key to prolonging life would benefit us all, but money to fund the search is hard to come by. Healthcare investors typically want to see short-term returns — unlikely, in metformin’s case, since its patent has long expired. Governments, meanwhile, prioritise research into diseases.
Into this gap have stepped tech billionaires including Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Israeli entrepreneur Yuri Milner, and through Alphabet, Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin, who are funding new models that aim to combine the best of business and academia without the pressure for short-term returns. Barzilai hopes to pitch to some of this class of investors at an upcoming longevity conference.
The billions being made available to longevity researchers could be a gift to a humanity too distracted by today’s problems to fund a long-term revolution in healthcare. Their interest could be a “win-win”: billionaires tempted by the idea of living ever longer fund a longevity field that would not thrive without them."
https://www.ft.com/content/649b0446-698c-4363-82ad-0be5b5faa68f
23. "The lesson, as always: big companies suck.
Don’t get me wrong—they didn’t always suck. At some point they were just like you. A startup fighting for product market fit or creating predictability in go-to-market or expanding geographically or something else that actually matters.
They were focused. Focused on hiring trajectory-changing people and giving them more responsibility than they knew what to do with. They were working their a**es off to create something out of nothing. They had desperation-induced focus.
But now they are different. Most big companies aren’t focused on creating things out of nothing. Someone else made the magic money-making machine, and they assume that it will just keep working. With the one thing that actually matters taken care of, they care about luxuries like making sure as high a percentage of the company as possible feels included in the planning process.
Or creating performance review frameworks with an ever-increasing number of boxes and categories. Or something else that matters even less than that. This lack of focus is a luxury and a disease."
https://rkg.blog/desperation-induced-focus.php
24. "This is a crucible moment: My friend sent me a note at one of Instacart’s crucible moments. It ended with “You have a chance to become anti-fragile. How lucky you are.” I would echo those sentiments here. This is a painful time. It is also an amazing opportunity. Go get it."
https://rkg.blog/anti-fragile.php
25. Doing VC school today. Listened to this great interview with Singerman at Founders Fund.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo29D0Q0TJw
26. This is a very good discussion on venture. Worth watching.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_52rbKrMFHQ
27. "The reasoning is simple: Risk Management and Building
Smart people do two things: 1) build their income at all costs and 2) *only* reinvest when they can’t figure out anything else!
Think that through quickly. If you’re hoping to get rich buying $3K worth of stuff per month, it isn’t going to happen. If your plan is to build income over a decade and go from investing $3K a month to $30K a month then to $50K a month? That will work.
Eventually some of those investments you make will go vertical and you’ll blow past your expectations. You’ll also be wise enough to sell some of it back to something safer given how hard it was to earn.
Conclusion: The only people who should be here need to agree on the same old proof point:
1) get career in tech/Wall St/Sales - or any other industry with similar pay as this,
2) spin up wifi biz,
3) work on wifi biz until it makes 2x more than your career and
4) after that you quit and look into investing heavily."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/the-quick-fixes-simple-opinion-on
28. So many nuggets of wisdom here from the very smart & sharp Luke Belmar. I've become a fan, always learning new things from him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuqzo6ygX5Y
29. The bull case for the US dollar & why it will be the global currency for a while.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LiR54FPQiCs
30. "For those of you older than 40, it sort of felt like 2000.
If you are younger than 40, a massive tech bubble just burst. I expect you know that. For the past six months, many VCs have been podcasting, tweeting, publicly writing, … and generally prognosticating about what you should do and what’s going to happen next.
I think the best VCs didn’t prognosticate. They knew what was going to happen next. Instead, they worked with each company to help them deal with reality as it unfolded. Each company is different, and the dynamics of the bubble bursting were not generic."
https://feld.com/archives/2023/01/what-just-happened
31. Not surprised but glad it’s happening. Would be great to see even more as there is no better deserving place than Russia (outside of China). #slavaukraini
https://jackmurphywrites.com/169/the-cias-sabotage-campaign-inside-russia
32. This is fascinating. Logistics really does matter in war. And it’s really hard to do well.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Valen10Francois/status/1609946194939154433
33. Micro and Nano VC funds are a big part of the future because that is where the alpha will be.
34. This is a good discussion on Energy for 2023. Europe is in big trouble due to their own idiot policies. USA too.
Lots of concern on a secret war on energy infrastructure all around the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIFH1cK68-A
35. Watch this region carefully in 2023. Part of the hybrid war we are in with Russia-China.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-63636181
36. #Geopolitics
"The war in Ukraine has offered two remarkable alternatives to hegemonic war.
First, the Russian answer: if hegemonic wars are impossible by virtue of the arrival of nuclear weapons, that does not mean that nuclear weapons cannot be used. They will be used not to win a hegemonic war but to threaten a less risk-prone adversary with destruction and thus bring about a compromise by which the global system may be fundamentally modified to reflect a balance of power that is in fact a balance of destruction.
Second, the American answer: if hegemonic wars have become impossible, that does mean they cannot be won. But they must be won not by direct conflict with an opponent but by shaping the war environment in such a way that such an opponent can be defeated before a direct clash becomes necessary. One could say that in this case an artificial environment or metaverse decides the outcome."
https://brunomacaes.substack.com/p/general-dynamics-of-the-ukraine-war
37. This is a must listen to. So many energy myths busted. We need more nuclear power.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RbuQ_fyxP7M&t=1s
38. Learning from one of the intellectual giants in investing. Investing in process & proper thinking and DCF vs optionality.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oR6T5lEzflo
39. "So add it up together, you can see why those who believe that the Eastern Front was the dominant front and the USSR was the dominant power in the defeat of Germany would later overrate the Russian army today and misunderstand the war we are seeing.
In short, they overrate the ability of dictatorships to create good armies, overrate the primitive variables such as infantry casualties, and underrate the importance of truly modern forces to undertake complex operations."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/misunderstanding-soviet-power-in-761
40. "That run of projects obscures the fact that it would’ve been easy for someone with Bautista’s biceps and resumé to settle into a string of mindless but lucrative action flicks.
Instead, he’s spent the last decade carving out the weirdest, most artful filmography of any WWE alumnus, working with a murderer’s row of Letterboxd-approved directors: Denis Villeneuve, Rian Johnson, Sam Mendes, James Gunn. “I never wanted to be the next Rock,” he puts it plainly. “I just want to be a good fucking actor. A respected actor.”
He is that now—not just not the next Rock, but a wholly new sort of action star. He’s gotten there against incalculable odds—brawling through financial ruin, familial woes, prejudices against his former career, skepticism about his abilities, and, of course, his own self-doubt. And he's done it by taking off his cap and sunglasses and staring straight into the spotlight. Not that that's gotten any easier.
“I’m afraid of things,” Bautista says. “I’m nervous about things. But I can force myself to do things that make me uncomfortable, because I know I’m not gonna get anywhere if I don’t. I may cringe after the fact, but I’m not going to let that fear hold me back.”
https://www.gq.com/story/gq-hype-dave-bautista
41. The Indiana Jones of Investing: Jim Rogers. Always learn from this guy.
Easing into the Year: It’s a Marathon, not a Sprint
I suspect that many of us in the first week of 2023 are still feeling groggy from too much food and sleep over the Christmas and new years break, just like a bear coming out from hibernation after the winter.
I used to feel really guilty for taking a break and not working during the holidays. And I used to really feel guilty and behind, especially for not jumping right back into things on January 2nd. I was always terrified of being behind and needing to get a lead over everyone else.
I actually think this paranoia and work ethic is important especially in your younger years as you are trying to get established. Let’s be honest, in your younger years, you have no idea what you are doing, so you have to over compensate with plain hard work and brute force while you try everything and learn what does not work.
But with time, age, experience and hopefully some track record of success and the reputation and personal brand that comes along with that you can afford to chill a little bit. To Step back and observe. Be more strategic and smarter.
Yet I still catch myself, worried that I am not doing enough. That I am falling behind. I worry about the things that kill the effectiveness of venture investors: age, complacency and overconfidence, maybe even arrogance. I’m terrified about losing my edge and that drives my paranoia and my uneasiness when I am inactive.
But I remind myself about the Abraham Lincoln quote (or at least ascribed to him): “Give me six hours to chop down a tree and I spend the first four sharpening the axe.”
And it makes sense, you have to mentally and physically prepare yourself as you jump back into the fray. As Louis Pasteur said: “Chance favors only the prepared mind.”
I anticipate that the rest of this year will be crazy busy, manic even. I have lots of investments to make, some fundraising to do, plenty of startup mentoring to do and a bunch of tech conferences to speak at. This is on top of writing and all the various personal projects I’m always involved in.
So better to take the time in January to ease into the year. I need to take my time while I have a relatively empty calendar. Precious time to get myself physically fit & healthy, get my family life sorted as well as it can be and get myself mentally prepared for action. I suggest that you all do the same. I suspect it is going to be a wild and nutty 2023 so we will need as much edge as we can possibly get. LFG: Let’s F-cking Go!
Survival and World Domination: Mindset & Attitudes Matter
Looking back over the years, I get the sense that prior to 2020 many of us were sleepwalking through life. Following the scripts stuck in our heads. Doing what we thought were things that mattered but in the end was just bad programming put into our heads by society, mainstream media and well meaning but clueless family and friends.
Now in early 2023, I’ve come to the realization of how wrong I was on so many fronts. Career, money, government, health & society. Almost everything.
And also just how much bad programming I had in my head, how little critical thinking I really did. And how I chased a life of avoiding problems and looking for ease, just like all the other losers out there. I foolishly trusted in the system and was punished accordingly.
It took a global pandemic, grossly incompetent reaction from governments everywhere, major financial stress from a near personal bankruptcy & cash crunch, marriage & family problems to wake me up. That plus a heinous & barbaric Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, where I have many close friends and business interests, so it’s pretty personal. Ukraine is a place I’ve come to love deeply as much as I do Georgia (the country), Portugal, Japan and Taiwan, outside of my homes in Canada and the USA.
I’ve come out of these experiences with more trust in myself and less reliance on others. I’ve changed my mental attitude. When bad things happened before I used to get angry and lose my cool. Thinking loser thoughts like “life is unfair” or “why is this happening to me??”
But for a new better you, your old self must die. You use hardship to remove the impurities in your thinking just like using fire to remove impurities in metal.
Now after reprogramming myself, I don’t panic or get angry (as much). I tell myself “Things don’t happen to me, I HAPPEN to things!!!” I don’t blame anyone or anything. I own it and take full responsibility for everything. I don’t think the world is unfair, nor do I try to hide from problems.
I think that living a “Baller Life” requires that you have to deal with big problems, thanks to Justin Waller Ie. “you judge the size of man on the size of his problems.” Or maybe a better quote is “smooth seas do not make strong sailors.” It helps you realize that these situations are just what happens when you are trying to do big things.
Plus there is just something confidence inspiring about someone who has gone through hardship and comes out stronger for it. As the old Latin saying goes “Dulcius Ex Asperis” which means “Sweeter after Difficulty”.
I’m working on myself all the time: mentally, physically, financially. And I am always trying to be ready for whatever may come my way, whether opportunities or challenges. Sometimes these two things are intertwined.
I’ve learned that personal responsibility is everything. You own the results of your life and cannot rely on anything or anyone. (Maybe except your parents, like in my case). No one else. That’s just the truth. And while it’s a harsher world through this lens, I have no illusions anymore. Illusions are dangerous and blind you.
I grow sick and tired of people complaining about how their lives suck and it’s everyone’s fault but their own. About how It’s society’s fault. Or it’s their parents or their spouses fault etc etc. It’s brain damaging and psychologically sickening. And this is the reason also why most of these people will be NGMI (Not Going to Make It). With no one to blame at the end but themselves.
That Sh-tty attitude will not get them through the massive financial and sociopolitical chaos and pain coming over the next few years. If you thought the last few years were bad, just wait and see what 2023 and beyond will hold. We will be seeing great economic dislocation and the breakdown of globalization. Don’t say you were not warned.
But as I’ve said before, there is a new age coming, with paradise on the other side of this. We’ll all have earned this when we get there.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Jan 1st, 2023
“Take the first step in faith. You don’t have to see the whole staircase, just take the first step.” – Martin Luther King Jr.
Happy new year and here is to victory in Ukraine, world peace, prosperity and great health in 2023.
This is a great Xmas story.
A South Korean tour group gets stuck in the snow and is then hosted by a nice American family during the winter storms. So lovely.
Happy Holidays to everyone!
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/25/us/snow-storm-korean-tourists.html
2. Recommend watching this and reading his book "Chip Wars". The importance of microchips and Taiwan in the future geopolitics and economic growth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VffSs0lXhb8
3. "2023 is going to be a very risky year for seed stage startups to accept capital from multi-stage funds (unless they commit to owning 20% of the company)."
4. Lots of insights here on what’s happening on the geopolitical and macroeconomic front.
USA is messing up their management of USD & weaponization of SWIFT and Dollar but every region is in big trouble and we are seeing the end of globalization.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXFtvi7S2wc
5. This is a good explanation of why there will be massive layoffs in Q1, 2023.
https://mobile.twitter.com/BowTiedPagan/status/1606674645985513474
6. I'm on a Zulauf kick: his message is grim but sounds right.
We are run by corrupt, incompetent idiots in the west. (Woke Left idiots, MAGA morons, they are all the same).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fuKbuhkJ-1M
7. "It is a mistake on our part, I think, to believe there is little connection between physical action and mental thought. The best thinkers are those who take action. No man who never leaves the interior of his house can be expected to have a healthy view of the world.
The best philosophers are those who combine the possibilities of speculative thought with the hard, timeworn lessons learned from participative action in the arenas of life. A stagnant pond produces little more than gases of putrefaction; but a running stream cuts through the landscape, delivering aqueous sustenance to the parched land. It is the gift of life itself."
https://qcurtius.com/2021/04/03/on-why-the-best-philosophers-are-men-of-action
8. Big fan of Simu Liu. His upbringing is similar to many of us kids of Asian immigrants so I certainly understand.
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2022/may/21/simu-liu-shang-chi-kims-convenience-memoir-interview
9. "In one way or another, that mindset has guided Aoki through a singular career. He is ever curious about the opportunity that others are overlooking, because it might seem too small or weird or noisy. Then, he says, he "brings that noise out from the corner and into the masses, and builds a community around it."
He is, for example, among the world's most famous DJs — the rare artist to transcend the club scene and achieve mainstream awareness. But he's also a savvy entrepreneur who absorbed brand-building lessons from his father, the founder of the successful restaurant chain Benihana. Aoki is a celebrated music producer, creator of the record label Dim Mak, as well as a clothing line called Dim Mak Collection that has partnered with the likes of Adult Swim and DC Comics — and he was recently named the "chief music officer" of Orangetheory Fitness (which means he sets the tone for the company's workout classes worldwide).
Lately, he has also thrown himself headfirst into the world of Web3, and has become one of its most vocal, prominent, and successful advocates. Because these days, if you want to talk about the future of business and technology, there is no better synopsis of Web3 than "you have to climb through the noise to find the gem."
10. "One of the opinions he wished to air to those assembled was that “woke-ism”—a belief system that Ramaswamy sees as an insidious secular creed—has overtaken religious faith, patriotism, and the work ethic as a key American value. Corporate virtue-signalling and hypocrisy are everywhere, he told the audience. “Let’s muse about the racially disparate impact of climate change as you fly on a private jet to Davos,” he said, to laughter from the nearly all-white crowd.
C.E.O.s were recruiting “token” people of color for their boards in the name of diversity while refusing to seek out diverse points of view. The Walt Disney Company was self-righteously protesting Florida’s “Don’t Say Gay” law after cutting deals with the repressive Chinese government to film footage for “Mulan” in Xinjiang.
To Ramaswamy, such corporate do-gooderism—and especially environmental, social, and governance investing, known as E.S.G.—is a smoke screen designed to distract from the less virtuous things that companies do to make money."
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/12/19/the-ceo-of-anti-woke-inc
11. One of the best macro observers in the world here.
"You’re bullish on emerging markets?
Yes, plus Japan. Japan and China are each other’s biggest trade partners. Japan exports a lot of things that China wants, including automobiles but also tourism. Pre-Covid, tourism was 7% of Japanese GDP, and most of it was from China.
When we talk about emerging markets in general, it’s important to look back to 2022: The three key themes in the past year were, one, a much tougher Fed, two, a much stronger dollar, and three, lockdowns in China. If one year ago we had told ten investors that these would be the key themes in 2022, what do you think they would have said about emerging markets?"
https://themarket.ch/english/louis-gave-we-will-see-a-boom-in-emerging-markets-ld.8118
12. Fascinating. In America, everything is business, even Christmas trees.
"Christmas trees are big business in New York. A lot of people see the quaint plywood shacks that appear on sidewalks just before Thanksgiving, each with its own tiny forest of evergreens, and they imagine that every one is independently owned, maybe by jolly families of lumberjacks looking to make a few holiday bucks. That’s what I thought, anyway.
In reality, a few eccentric, obsessed, sometimes ruthless tycoons control the sale of almost every single tree in the city. They call themselves “tree men,” and they spend 11 months a year preparing for Christmastime — which, to them, is a blistering 30-day sprint to grab as much cash as they can."
https://www.curbed.com/article/christmas-tree-trade-secrets-gregs-trees-nyc.html
13. Good way to prepare for 2023! Very motivating.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b31dko8Ek8Q
14. I am not a fan of this guy nor his politics (I’d go so far to say I detest him right up there with Tucker Carlson). But this is a very sober write up of what a crime ridden mess the USA has become. Mainly due to nutty Woke Left.
https://mikecernovich.substack.com/p/brace-for-impact
15. "Instead, the better way to get rich is to build out based on your talent/skills. Coca-Cola will stand the test of time, the latest fashion fad will not.
Accepting painful truths is something that only resonates with the elite since they are self-aware (focused on self evaluation and improvement). They know that life is easier if you’re attractive (source), they know they can’t replicate Usain Bolt genetics and go win the Gold Medal if they “train hard enough” and they know that they should follow what they are good at, not what they are “passionate” about. (Typically, passion just means you’re aware you’re not good at it and simply enjoy it anyway).
Simple Formula: After you get your regular high paying career (Wall St, Tech or Sales) you have to immediately find what you’re good at: 1) are people going out of their way to tell you that you’re good at X? If so that’s a sign,
2) is that skill going to be of value in 5-10 years? If so, you already have the direction that you should go and
3) *bonus* if you don’t enjoy it that’s actually a *good* thing. You will optimize for business success not how you “feel” which ironically makes you harder to compete against…. You only make smart financial decisions."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/why-you-wont-get-rich-making-top
16. "When a nation has won its freedom through a horrific and bloody sacrifice, defending others on the Continent in the process, it can’t be stood aside and told it’s a peripheral state. A victorious Ukraine will thus claim its place in Europe by the sheer magnitude of its sacrifice, while both the U.S. and the European nations that played a key role in its victory — especially those along NATO’s eastern flank — will become that much more influential.
Putin’s folly to go all out against Ukraine has set in motion a process that can’t be reversed. And it isn’t just that Europe’s center of gravity will shift northeast, but also that the once-nebulous concept of Eastern Europe as a backwater of the West — an image reinforced by the Balkan wars of the 1990s — has been all but dismantled."
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-battle-over-future-europe
17. "The financial gains from Nogara's work will have been dispersed into many different sections of the Vatican and the wider Catholic Church, but the wisdom that we can glean from his work remains right there.
Just some aspects of Nogara's strategy that any private investor can learn from or be inspired by include the following:
-Refusing any constraints on where and how you can invest? I'd call that one of the cardinal rules you need to adhere to in order to grow and protect your wealth.
-Building up specific sector competence? Always a good idea!
-Educating yourself about geopolitical risks and how to avoid issues such as custody risk? During the tumultuous 2020s, these are subjects that everyone needs to be aware of.
As this review of Nogara's work shows, many aspects of being successful in investing don't really change over time. An organisation that has survived 2,000 years of humanity's chaos will be first to realise that there are timeless principles that never change.
No other single individual, Pope or Cardinal ever gave as much impetus and muscle to Vatican finances as Nogara."
18. This is an old one but boy, I love a good prank. This one on David Beckham. Still laughing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=bF014EUJrSI
19. I so want one of these now. Japanese beef croquettes with a 30 year waitlist.
https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/japan-kobe-beef-croquettes-30-year-waitlist/index.html
20. "The wars, the enemies, change. There is one constant however, from the beginning of mankind: your bloodline. This is the true struggle. This is why you must strive for superiority. I doubt many have read Frank Herbert’s God Emperor of Dune, but in book — which takes place a couple thousand years after the original book — the God Emperor says he wants to teach mankind a lesson they will remember in their bones.
What lesson is this? A great fear born from prescience(vision of the future) he had was mankind being destroyed by a dark threat because they had failed to do what they were meant to do.
I too, want to teach mankind a lesson it will remember in their bones.
The lesson is much the same. You can’t get comfortable. You can’t settle for the trad life or retvrn to some other era. You’re born into this time and you must bravely go forward. The strength of mankind, the reason we’ve established superiority over the whole of the earth, is our ability to master space. To master the conditions were born into and continue the fight started by our Fathers."
https://resavager.substack.com/p/the-way-of-the-fathers
21. This is sad. The Hong Kong I used to know and love has been destroyed by China and the CCP.
Also why I'll never go back there again like Noah.
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/repost-i-will-never-get-to-go-to
22. "Nothing comes from nowhere. Not success. Not inspiration. Not the muses. Not writer’s block. Everything is a lagging indicator. Of whether or not you did the work."
https://ryanholiday.net/all-success-is-a-lagging-indicator
23. "Despite signals in some capitals suggesting that this period may represent an opening to negotiations, present conditions make this proposition unlikely. There is no stalemate on the ground, and neither side is willing to revise its minimal war aims. Ukraine has been winning since August. A ceasefire at this stage would largely benefit Russia. Past experience suggests Moscow will use it to reconstitute forces after several months, and renew the war.
Furthermore, a premature cessation of hostilities is only likely to ensure a continuation war, as neither side in the conflict would achieve their war aims. This is not to say that negotiations are imprudent at a later point, or that attempts to think through how this war ends and manage escalation are misguided. Even in the event of a decisive Ukrainian victory, Putin may not acknowledge defeat, and continue a war of attrition.
Ukraine remains relatively advantaged in this war, although said advantage is not predictive of outcomes. What worked up until this point in the war may not yield the same benefits without adjustments to training, capabilities provided, defense industrial production, and rates of ammunition consumption.
The course of events thus far has been far from overdetermined, but Ukraine’s military has consistently over performed, proving more competent and better motivated, while the Russian military underperformed relative to expectations."
https://ridl.io/the-russo-ukrainian-war-ten-months-in-taking-stock
24. Last NIA episode of the year. Always a good show.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yyOsJ3YmxnU
25. "Despite numerous examples of poor conditions, minimal training, delayed payments, faulty equipment, incompetent leadership, and other problems (including a mass shooting at a training range), mobilized soldiers are providing Russia with more manpower. They’ve enabled the Russian military to stabilize vulnerable lines and conduct a withdrawal from Kherson. Poorly trained soldiers are of minimal value in offensive operations, as Russian infantry attacks at Bakhmut suggest, but it is easier to train someone to man a defensive position.
Even elite units, such as the Russian Airborne Forces’ 331st Airborne Regiment and 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, are receiving mobilized soldiers as combat replacements. This is a significant vulnerability for Russia, but, thus far, mobilized soldiers appear to be more of an assetthan a liability, though there is undoubtedly variance.
The extent to which Russia can create semi-effective mobilized units or successfully integrate mobilized soldiers into existing units will be an important factor in how effectively Russia can sustain this war, particularly during the winter. If Russia fails to train, lead, and integrate mobilized soldiers properly, Ukraine may find an opportunity to achieve another breakthrough when the weather and ground conditions improve."
https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/12/how-the-battle-for-the-donbas-shaped-ukraines-success
26. Interesting discussion for global macro investors. Tracking shipping data. Neat newsletter.
https://mailchi.mp/aed28517f51c/a-different-perspective-and-a-note-on-inflation?e=123a1c25c4
27. I really am behind on these things. Xmas break is for catching up on fun, somewhat useless but kind of random things. Kitsune Dansu. But it’s become a cultural phenomenon.
28. So happy to see this turnaround.
"Of course, there’s a lesson here. And it’s not just for books. You could also apply it to music, newspapers, films, and a host of other media.
But I almost hate to say it, because the lesson is so simple.
If you want to sell music, you must love those songs. If you want to succeed in journalism, you must love those newspapers. If you want to succeed in movies, you must love the cinema.
But this kind of love is rare nowadays. I often see record labels promote new artists for all sorts of gimmicky reasons—even labels I once trusted such as Deutsche Grammophon or Concord. I’ve come to doubt whether the people in charge really love the music.
Maybe they once did, but at some point they lost faith in the redemptive power of songs. That’s the only explanation I can give for what they’re doing. Instead they put their faith in something else—maybe a brand licensing deal, or a fashion line tie-in, or a human interest story. Or maybe they just decided that money talks, and began making creative decisions based on discounted cash flow projections.
But here’s the problem. If you don’t really love the music (or books or newspapers or cinema or whatever), those cash flow projections turn out to be wrong. That’s because creative fields like music and writing live and die based on creativity, not financial statements and branding deals."
https://tedgioia.substack.com/p/what-can-we-learn-from-barnes-and
29. Great thread for new and old VCs.
Lots of good lessons & thoughts for becoming better at this.
https://twitter.com/schlaf/status/1608870554668523520
30. We should be very aware that we are in gray war now with China and Russia.
"Foreign aggressors like Russia and China target fault lines in the US, such as racial tensions, to polarize society and incite chaos. It is paramount for politicians on both sides of the table to unite to protect our shared values.
Moscow and Beijing already claim to believe the US is waging an information war against them. If only that represented the reality on the ground."
https://nypost.com/2022/12/27/russia-and-china-are-fueling-web-wars-to-divide-americans
31. "There is simply no way to beat Larry Ellison in an open auction. It was a contest between two non-billionaires and a billionaire 28 times over. This left only one option for Lacob and Guber: They had to give Chris Cohan an exploding offer.
The “exploding offer” tactic has been deployed by many an NBA general manager, some rather infamously. Take this now, or it goes away forever. Take this offer to someone else and it ceases to exist as an opportunity, much less leverage. It can be a bold play, and sometimes a called bluff. But if you’re desperate enough, it’s the only play that’s right. And Lacob-Guber were desperate, after having missed out on prior teams."
32. Max Blumenthal and his Grey Zone are paid Russian shills so be wary of what they write. It’s a more blatant example.
Although I should note you should be wary of ALL media in general.
Do your homework and think for yourself.
https://jeffreycarr.substack.com/p/trolling-for-putin
33. "On its surface, the liquidation preference looks like a “heads I win, tails you lose” situation for the investor. The liquidation preference was designed with an intent towards alignment and downside protection. It doesn’t end up mattering if the price of the equity continues to rise, and the business is ultimately successful with a favorable acquisition or public listing. And here’s how to think about downside protection.
Say you’re an investor and you invest $1M at a $10M post-money valuation. You now own 10% of a startup. If there is no liquidation preference, the startup could get sold for $5M 2 months later, and the founder(s) could take home $4.5M, and you have now lost $500K. Naval points to an even more extreme example here – the founder could dissolve the company after you wire the $1M, distribute the proceeds, and just give you $100K (10%) back.
Ok, again – why did I write this? Because the liquidation preferences written into term sheets in 2020 and 2021 will come into effect – there will be (more) down rounds, wind-downs, and less-than-appetizing acquisitions. This is the unfortunate reality due to the degree of over-capitalization and dearth of product-market fit."
https://aashay.substack.com/p/the-liquidation-preference
34. 2023 predictions are always fun. I hope he is right, especially in this case.
"The Situation Room and Tucker Carlson are incentivized to tell us “America is awful, news at 11.” Their apocalyptic vision is misguided, bordering on delusional, as we are in a position of strength relative to our global peers: Over the past two years our stock market has outperformed China’s by 30%. Our inflation rate, while high, is nowhere near those of European nations including Germany (10%+), the U.K. (11%+), and Italy (12%+).
We are energy and food independent and have again demonstrated our mastery of the world’s master: technology (see above: re-creating the sun). Nobody is lining up for Chinese or Russian vaccines. The U.S. has pledged $47 billion in military aid to Ukraine, greater than the combined contribution of every other country."
https://www.profgalloway.com/2023-predictions
35. These are good predictions for Crypto. I'm still a believer as we see many of the crooks and get rich quick crowd disappear, while the builders continue to build.
https://davidphelps.substack.com/p/10-crypto-predictions-for-2023
36. This is a great crash course on good VC thinking. Worth a read.
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/having-a-conversation-with-yourself
37. "Decide what your main priority is and then cut something else down to create more time for priority number 1. If your main priority is making money? Sorry. You don’t get to look at mansion tours or supercars on the internet.
You should be focused on staying up to speed on the market. Building your online biz. Automating your career the best you can.
In 2023 during this clear recession, you’ll have another good shot to go up the socioeconomic pyramid. With Assets down if your income is flat you will acquire more assets that the vast majority. As always "wealth is relative”. As white collar workers lose their jobs (they won’t be replaced) you’ll see a bleed in the upper middle class. *Tons* of upper middle class will revert to middle class and there will be a select few who jump from middle class to Upper Middle Class (see the producers/revenue generators)."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/happy-new-year-and-some-quick-notes
38. I always learn stuff from Brad Gerstner, one of the smartest investors in Silicon Valley. Worth watching.
The long overdue return of truth telling in tech!
Always Be Prepared to Pay: There is NO Free Lunch
I remember when I was first starting off my career in Taiwan and then in the USA. Imagine being so poor and strapped for cash that when you get invited to dinner or lunch that you would hope the other party will pay. Especially if it’s a relative or elder or richer, more established friend. I think we have all been in this position before.
And it’s an awful feeling. What happens if they don’t pay? You are out a lot of cash you just don’t have. If they do pay, you feel like a low status mooch. And obligated to them for the future. I hate owing anybody anything. The point is that there is a cost to everything even if it looks like it is free at the start.
Thankfully I’ve gotten past those bad old days. And now in a position, mindset and view that I am always ready to pay. And I feel I should always pay for the meal irregardless of whether the other party is better off than I am or not. And none of that stupid Western crap of splitting the bill either.
I think it should be the personal goal of every man to be in a position to take care of and treat others. This forces you to have your career and financial act in order. So you can afford it. Generosity without expecting anything back is the way. Isn’t that the whole point and definition of being successful in life? In fact, I think it’s an obligation if you have done well. Nothing worse than a cheap affluent person (and there are many of these people out there sadly).
This principle of being ready to pay for everything is still relevant for life in general. There is NO Free lunch. Whatever you want, you have to expect and be willing to pay for it. And you pay this with your time, commitment, hard work, and reputation. And sometimes with your hard earned money.
You want to be healthy and fit, you will pay with lots of exercise, a good diet and maybe even a personal trainer. You want career success and to be rich, you have to pay with an investment in cash, time, business partners and advisors & a lot of energy and time. Maybe even paying by losing family or family time.
You should always be prepared to pay. This is what being a well functioning adult male should know and do. I don’t make the rules here but “Scorn the Free Lunch” as the great man Robert Greene says.
Happy New year everyone and see you in 2023!
The Godfather: A Movie Classic Full of Life Lessons for Men
This is a movie that everyone has seen or at least have heard off. It has given us so many cultural & iconic scenes that permeate our culture even to today despite being released over 50 years ago.
We learn terms like:
“Going to the mattresses” which means preparing for battle and going to war with your rivals.
"Leave the gun, Take the Cannoli" which according to folks at FilmFood means leave the past behind (The gun is the awfulness of the past) and look into the future (the cannoli is the anticipation of a sweet future).
Or the much repeated quote:
“It’s not personal, it’s business.” Something many people say when they do something awful. But it is also a good frame. Remove emotion for your decisions. And do not lose your temper and head. Something that I’m still learning. Losing your cool can be fatal as what happened to the elder brother Sonny.
But I love the family drama, it’s a classic American story with the only difference being that this is an American gangster family. Of loyalty and treachery. And vendetta and plenty of violence. And ultimately it’s about power.
Yet the themes that stick out to me really are about the importance of family and loyalty to the family. You do whatever it takes to help and protect your family. Family first and always. As Michael Corleone tells his brother Fredo:
“Don’t ever take sides against the family ever again. Ever.”
I appreciate how the Corleone’s stress old traditional masculine virtues as well.
“You spend time with your family? Good. Cause a man that doesn’t spend time with his family can never be a real man.”
So many gems. Don Vito Corleone in one of his last conversations with his youngest son and successor, explains why he did all the things he did in his criminal syndicate life: “I worked my whole life, I don’t apologize, to take care of my family. And I refused to be a fool, dancing on the strings of all those big shots. I don’t apologize, it’s my life.”
Can’t agree with this more. And you don’t need to be a mob boss to follow this still highly relevant wisdom in modern day life.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Dec 25th, 2022
“If you get tired, learn to rest, not to quit.” — Bansky
Merry Christmas to everyone who celebrates and happy winter holidays to those who don’t! 2023 is coming in very fast!
Thanks for subscribing and reading my posts.
"Based on everything I have observed, we are in for much more pain in Q1-Q2 of 2023. The current atmosphere is going to get worse.
While many hottest startups and category leaders across geographies have announced layoffs this quarter, it seems like we haven’t seen enough pain yet given the financial performance, funding climate, public market expectations, pandemic euphoria hangover, and venture capital-limited partner dynamic we are walking into in 2023."
https://sarharibhakti.substack.com/p/startup-life-will-get-a-lot-worse
2. "In place of centralized social media we see a few things rising. First, there’s TikTok and YouTube; although these do have some comment features, overall they’re far more similar to television, radio, and traditional one-way push media, with content driven by algorithms instead of user sharing. Second, Snapchat and Instagram, which are geared much more toward personal interactions and less toward public discussions. And though they weren’t included in the survey, my general sense from both anecdotes and overall usage trends is that chat apps — WhatsApp, Signal, Discord, etc. — are becoming more popular.
What these rising apps and platforms all share is fragmentation. Whether it’s intentional self-sorting into like-minded or community-moderated groups, or the natural fragmentation that comes from a bunch of different people watching their own algorithmically curated video feeds, these apps all have a way of separating people based on who they want to talk to and what they want to be exposed to."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-internet-wants-to-be-fragmented
3. Like to see Solo GPs rise to the fore. Interesting VC fund.
4. "So, if you find a business compounding capital at 25% per year, but it’s got a $10 billion market cap or a $30 billion market cap, I wouldn’t dismiss it. Instead, really dig in and try to assess how durable those returns are. How likely is that business going to be able to keep that pace. Because then it’s just a math problem. If the business can compound at 25% per year for 20 years, you have your 100 bagger.
(Roughly. To be more precise, you’ll have an 86-bagger after 20 years and a 108-bagger after 21 years.) I’d put much more emphasis on that and less focus on the market cap, per se."
https://www.woodlockhousefamilycapital.com/post/100-bagger
5. This is why I am maximum bullish on Ukraine's tech startup future and on Ukraine prevailing over the Russian barbarian orcs. #SlavaUkraini
"Russian shelling has targeted strategic sites across the country: power generators, electricity lines, nuclear power plants and wind and solar farms. As a result, roughly 50% of Ukrainian energy infrastructure has reportedly experienced significant damage throughout November. While the authorities incessantly try to fix the damage, the country is still facing both planned and unexpected power cuts. Some cities are also lacking running water.
“Everyone has already adapted to the constant blackouts,” says Stakh Vozniak, СЕО of Cargofy, a freight tech startup. “The team hasn’t lost its fighting spirit — people try to face the current challenges with a sense of humour.”
It’s perhaps this attitude that’s made Ukraine’s startup ecosystem so resilient this year."
https://sifted.eu/articles/candlelight-starlink-power-generators-ukraine
6. "From an economic perspective, the purpose of a city is to turn limited input into maximum output. The input can be people's time, money, or natural resources.
To achieve this purpose, cities need to do two things well:
-Enable as many people as possible to provide input
-Boost input that is more likely to generate valuable output
"Valuable," in this case, means whatever consumers are looking for — from the best doctors to cheap snacks. Cities do the above well because, like Instagram, they enable entrepreneurs to copy, reference, iterate on, and refine each other's ideas.
Hence, the larger the city and the more interaction between users, the more likely it is that valuable products and ideas will emerge. And just like on Instagram, urban inequality is a function of efficiency. The ability to distribute better goods and services, made by a handful of winners, to a larger number of people results in higher efficiency and inequality."
https://www.drorpoleg.com/cities-are-instagram
7. "So be humble. Be grateful and show your gratitude. If you get some money in your pocket, give something back to the community. Be a generous man, as this will placate the gods to some extent, and not arouse their hostility too much.
Investing money is something everyone should do, but remember why you are doing it. You do it to enrich your life, and to enhance your security. If it becomes an unhealthy obsession that detracts from these purposes, then it is time to rebalance your priorities."
https://qcurtius.com/2021/02/14/some-thoughts-and-opinions-on-investing
8. I really enjoyed this show. I wish I had learned some of his thoughts earlier in my life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Feowi7mynk
9. Solid predictions for 2023 from a top VC and ex-operator who knows and has been around.
https://twitter.com/fintechjunkie/status/1602723757587828736?s=20&t=3OGcOGognP81gQgxM3ejOA
10. This is why the West needs to get off its ass and ramp up production and manufacturing of munitions.
And send as much of it to Ukraine so they can crush the Russian orcs.
https://taskandpurpose.com/news/russia-munitions-ukraine
11. Yes, Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore are well positioned for the future.
https://www.investasian.com/property-investment/best-countries-invest-2023
12. "As an entrepreneur, it’s easy to get too focused on output and not provide enough attention to outcome. Both are needed and both are critical to growing a startup. The next time you’re thinking through activities and effort, breakout the output and outcome elements and ensure they’re aligned properly."
https://davidcummings.org/2022/12/17/output-vs-outcomes-for-startups
13. "Before Glasheen moved to this island, he was a successful entrepreneur worth nearly $30m on paper. He says he had two yachts, owned multiple waterfront properties, and caroused with titans of Australian commerce.
Today, he lives alone for long stretches at a time, seldomly returning to the mainland. He sports a sea-swept white beard and forages for oysters barefoot and shirtless. His only permanent companions are two mannequins named Miranda and Phyllis.
What compelled a one-time multimillionaire to trade in luxury and comfort for a life of seclusion?"
https://thehustle.co/the-millionaire-who-lost-it-all-and-became-a-castaway
14. "It’s why Russia was always going to fail in its invasion. So my worry in this week is that the power of the old narrative, which the Times still seems to harbor and which the Ukrainians are, understandably but I would say mistakenly, feeding, persists.
This is Ukraine’s war to win, because Ukraine is the more well-rounded power."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-7
15. "Fadell stops to examine a group of photos of the device: a hardware wallet called Ledger Stax. A hardware wallet is a utilitarian thing. It’s a physical lock for digital secrets. When you own cryptocurrency, your balance is protected solely by a private key that can be devilishly hard to keep safe. Ledger’s wallets, made of steel and silicon (and, OK, plastic), act as tiny vaults, but so far they have been off-putting.
Much like crypto itself. Fadell is reinventing this gadget, his first major design project in years. He has come to believe that by giving it the panache of the hottest consumer gadgets, he will redirect the crypto field, just as he helped kick off digital music and the smart home."
https://www.wired.com/story/tony-fadell-is-trying-to-build-the-ipod-of-crypto-ledger-stax
16. My guess is TikTok gets banned in next year or two. Until then, it’s still going to be the platform for music and virality.
"Obermann tried to make his skeptical colleagues understand that TikTok was going to be the next big thing. He likened user-generated videos, on which creators spend many hours, to the mixtapes people made back in the day—“the ultimate form of fandom,” he said. To me, he described TikTok as a combination of elements of Top Forty radio, music television, and streaming: “There has never been anything that can get a song hooked in your head the way TikTok does it.”
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/12/12/so-you-want-to-be-a-tiktok-star
17. "Lifelong learning is about being open-minded, challenging my own beliefs and behaviors but also about becoming better at what I do and regularly acquiring new skills. My ambition is to reach a certain level of expertise, mastery if you will, both to be able to help others but also to learn about what I’m really capable of.
By saying yes to the above we need to say no to a lot of things which is par for the course."
https://fewerbetterthings.substack.com/p/free-your-mind-and-the-rest-will
18. "Writing down the fear and identifying what is at risk has a way of right-sizing the fear.
Evaluating the risk helps bring our prefrontal cortex online. This part of our brain is able to view challenges with creativity and informed confidence. We see straighter lines to solutions than what our animal brains can see.
Planning, even simple one-sentence plans, help our nervous systems to relax."
https://www.mattmunson.me/fear-2
19. "Along the way, what you've gotten is a pretty powerful law of large numbers in asset management. If you raise larger and larger funds, two things happen: (1) the dollar value of the annual fees you're collecting gets much bigger, and (2) your possible return threshold gets lower. It's much harder to 3x a $1B fund than it is to 3x a $100M fund.
But if you're managing $20B instead of $1B, you're collecting $400M in fees each year instead of $20M. You start to see the opportunity that exists in raising more and more money.
I don't mean to imply that no VC is founder-focused, many are. Many are building unique models to best serve the needs of founders who are inventing the future. But I think it's important to reflect on the reality that, despite the marketing, founders are not a VC's customer. LPs are. The real customers are where the revenue comes from, and both (1) fees, and (2) carry come to VCs through LPs."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/the-blackstone-of-innovation
20. This guy Trung can write. The backstory behind James Cameron and The Titanic. Really fascinating.
https://trungphan.substack.com/p/titanic-and-the-greatest-film-run
21. A good criticism of the Decentralized State concept. Worth a read.
"Without sovereignty over some territory, a startup society is severely limited in its goals."
https://unfashionable.substack.com/p/a-decentralized-network-is-not-a
22. "One final point. Learning is ultimately a human process. Whether it is individuals or different sized teams, it is well-led humans with a sense of purpose who drive innovation and military adaptation. We are only at the very beginning of learning from how people have responded to the profound challenges of this war, developed new solutions and adapted their institutions.
But many clever military institutions - including our potential future adversaries - are watching, assessing and adapting. The success of the Ukrainians, and other Western military forces in future, will be shaped by how effective their learning cultures are."
https://mickryan.substack.com/p/learning-from-the-war-in-ukraine
23. Lots of interesting thoughts here. All young folks should listen to this: Luke Belmar.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-FOFqaM5bdE
24. #SlavaUkraini!
"As steadfast as the Biden administration has been in its support for Ukraine, there’s a better way forward than letting the war grind on indefinitely the way it has over the last few months: give Ukraine the weapons it needs to win the war as quickly as possible. Ukraine has shown it can use NATO-standard weapons effectively against Russian forces, and there should be little doubt that if given more capable systems Ukrainian troops can push Putin’s armies out of their territory.
There are three priority capabilities that would speed a Ukrainian victory: long-range missiles, airpower, and tanks.
Overall, the U.S. goal remains to end the war as quickly as possible and with a Ukrainian victory. Putin will not negotiate under current circumstances, preferring instead to escalate against Ukrainian civilians and hope the United States and its European allies can deliver him from his own strategic blunders.
If the United States and its allies give Ukraine the weapons it needs to win the war, they can help bring this conflict to a speedier end by either expelling Russian forces from Ukraine outright or forcing Putin to the negotiating table.
Either way, it’s time to stop playing into Putin’s strategy and make a serious effort to help Ukraine win the war as soon as possible."
https://theliberalpatriot.substack.com/p/avoiding-a-long-war-in-ukraine
25. All investors need to read this letter from Howard Marks.
"As I’ve written many times about the economy and markets, we never know where we’re going, but we ought to know where we are.
The bottom line for me is that, in many ways, conditions at this moment are overwhelmingly different from – and mostly less favorable than – those of the post-GFC climate described above. These changes may be long-lasting, or they may wear off over time. But in my view, we’re unlikely to quickly see the same optimism and ease that marked the post-GFC period.
We’ve gone from the low-return world of 2009-21 to a full-return world, and it may become more so in the near term. Investors can now potentially get solid returns from credit instruments, meaning they no longer have to rely as heavily on riskier investments to achieve their overall return targets. Lenders and bargain hunters face much better prospects in this changed environment than they did in 2009-21.
And importantly, if you grant that the environment is and may continue to be very different from what it was over the last 13 years – and most of the last 40 years – it should follow that the investment strategies that worked best over those periods may not be the ones that outperform in the years ahead.
That’s the sea change I’m talking about."
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/sea-change
26. Must read for all founders. One of the best discussions on fundraising I've read in a while.
"The naked truth is that most investors are followers not leaders. And this is not a weakness of character. This is the job. Know about companies early and invest as late as possible (to derisk), while still being early (to get a good price).
As odd as it's sounds, their job is not to invest in the best companies but in the ones that the next investors will consider the best. They don't want to be contrarian, they want to be earlier. Nobody ever got fired for buying IBM, nobody will get fired for investing in last summer's hottest startups.
If they write smaller checks, they want to join the round when it happens. If they write bigger rounds they'll try to push another large investor out once they realize others are interested."
https://klinger.io/posts/first-time-fundraising-is-hell
27. "The economy will enter a “recession” globally. Worse is all the more likely. The rates, inflation, etc will catch up with the job, housing markets, and financial system.
Throughout 2023 we will see the continued decline of the housing market. Rate hikes will continue to grind down the middle class. Inflation will do the rest. Inflation won’t easy for some time. While some supply constraints have eased on the physical products side.
Major spends such as food and fuel haven’t; in-fact the input costs for such have increased.
With basics becoming more expensive, jobs diminishing and the economy on the rocks we’re in for a wild 2023."
https://mercurial.substack.com/p/2023-outlook
28. Don't agree with Sacks views politically but he has great observations on the US coast elites arrogance and bankrupt ideas. This is thought provoking.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGbAoR1D9vc
29. Great advice here: seriously take a break this Christmas time: you need it to prepare for a tough 2023.
"Take a Break. No Really.
It’s the holiday season. A time when most businesses naturally slow down. It’s a time where most people take a break to spend time with friends and family and to reflect on the year.
Unfortunately, many founders find it difficult to truly disconnect. They feel the pressure — both internal and external — to keep working. They forgo time with friends and family for an extra few hours of coding, some more time doing email, or a chance to work on an “important” project that’s been on the back-burner.
I’m here to tell you that it’s more important for you to take a break. Whether it’s for a few days or an entire week, allow yourself the opportunity to truly disconnect from your startup. Spend time with your friends and family. Watch a movie. Read a book. Resist the urge to open up your laptop and check your email. Unless you have end-of-year sales activity going on, I promise that your startup will be fine (and if you do, take a break in January)."
https://chrisneumann.com/blog/take-a-break-no-really
30. Talk about Adventure Capitalists: Chinese entrepreneurs in Taliban controlled Afghanistan. Totally crazy and off the charts risky to say the least.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ssc5PUm8a-Q
31. Lessons from Ukraine. This initiative to train and involve civilians in Taiwan is LONG overdue. The government and the people there need to wake and properly prepare for possible CCP invasion.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/19/taiwan-china-invasion-civil-defense-training
32. This is cool. DJ and tycoon. DJ Kygo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StfejB2zPac
33. "So to sum up, the early 2020s have basically taught us to worry about asset bubbles a bit less than we did in the 2010s, and to worry about excessive government stimulus a bit more. But that doesn’t mean that everything we learned in the 2010s was bunk.
Private banking systems really are fragile without the government to stabilize them. Aggregate demand definitely does matter, and the government really can affect it, with both fiscal and monetary policy. Basic Keynesian macroeconomic intuition still looks pretty good in the 2020s, just as it did in the 2010s and before. Of course that intuition is very far from settled science, but it’s still the best thing we’ve got."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/unlearning-the-macroeconomic-lessons
34. Very informative prediction on future macroeconomic climate. Worth listening to if you want to know how energy is tied to the economy. Net net: Germany & Europe is in big trouble.
Nostalgia: It’s a Hell of a Drug
I spent a good part of the summer months in Vancouver this year. Met up with old friends, spent time with my parents, ate amazingly good Asian food here & even went to old haunts. It was wonderful reminiscing about the good old days. I stayed in the room I grew up in and even went to dig out my old collection of anime and comic books I read. Yes, I am an unabashed otaku and geek. I even went to see the “Top Gun Maverick” movie which is about as nostalgic as you can get. Loved it by the way, especially as a fan of the first movie having watched Top Gun countless times.
You kind of revert back to a semblance of my childhood as my folks end up cooking, cleaning, heck they even gave me cash to go out and pay for stuff despite my protests. So you really end up relatively worry-free and carefree as your normal life seems so very far away.
But reality is always there and I know this is just a very pleasant break. Nostalgia is a wonderful feeling, defined as a sentimental longing or wistful affection of the past. You look back at who you were. You remember all the fun times and how innocent and naive you were. It also helps you see how far you have come, how much your life has changed. It helps you understand the progress you have made as a functioning and what you hope is a high achieving individual.
I love coming back because it reminds me of why I left. I left because I felt the place was too small & quiet, despite a wonderful quality of life. I left to compete in the much bigger USA and in my chosen industry of technology. I also think about all the things that I enjoy now. Traveling the world doing startup investments, doing LP fund investments, fundraising, building businesses, speaking at conferences and meeting and helping startup people.
Nostalgia is great but it represents the past. Enjoy it while it lasts. But your main focus should be on making your present and future life even better than before. Your present should be literally 1,000,000 times more awesome than in the past. That means you need to be actively taking action and steps to make every year of your life better than your last one.
Lessons from the Hell’s Angels: Taking Care of Business
I read a wide variety of subjects growing up. One of them was criminology, especially around the myriad varieties of criminal gangs. Asian street gangs, The bloods & crips of LA, MS13 and the Italian mob. But the one that stands out are the motorcycle gangs. The Hells Angels and Bandidos. Starting off as war veterans riding Harleys together and exemplified by Marlon Brando & his “The Wild One”, classic movie of bike gang terrorizing a small town. They represented freedom from society’s norms and doing whatever you want in the most negative form.
Of course, over time they became a very scary and effective criminal enterprise that got involved in arms dealing and the illegal drug trade. Our modern day Viking band.
Members who do the tough jobs like killing an enemy of the club earn the “Expect No Mercy” tab “& respect in the org. In fact you probably cannot move up in the organization without it. A leader of the club wears the TCB badge which is “Taking Care of Business.”
Something about this harkens back to the old medieval days where war bands marauded around the world following the directions of the toughest and most capable warlords. The ultimate in survival of the fittest. You took leadership and only stayed on top by being the biggest badass and bringing the war band opportunities to get gold and loot.
But the minute this stopped you would be challenged by those internally or externally who thought they could do better. There was no quiet retirement here. You died with a weapon in your hand. These warriors were tough people, they had to be to run a group of warriors like this.
So how does this relate to the modern & civilized world? As I’ve stated many times, humans are not that far removed from the tribal monkey brain humans back then or far from the criminal gangs. Your job at heart as a startup founder or manager of a business group, is to TCB. Create and manage the business. And just as important you have to take care of your people! In fact, next to taking care of customers, if you don’t take care of your team, you probably won’t be able to keep the customers in the long run. Happy & motivated employees make for happy customers. In other words you took care of business.
I think we can take a clear lesson from this. I’d take this even further from this amazing true life story from online persona Bobby Dino during a prison riot he was in. “I saw in that moment, how everything was, and how everything would be. You’re on your own. There wasn’t anyone coming to save you, cops included. You had to watch what you’re doing at all times, and, when the time comes, you handle your business.”
Very wise words to heed: Take care of your family! Take care of your friends! Take care of your neighbors! Take care of yourself! TCB: Take care of your business!
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Dec 18th, 2022
“It’s precisely those who are busiest who most need to give themselves a break.” — Pico Iyer, The Art of Stillness
Hope he is right but CCP is more capable (and evil) than people think.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1hmvF8yiY8
2. This was a great conversation today on ChatGPT and personal finance. NIA boys at work.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47JIwJWH8TQ
3. "Cash is like the weighted blanket you bought off Instagram, Scrooge McDuck’s gold pit of coins, my wife’s collection of canned goods in the basement…you get it. Feeling secure is important. I cannot understate the financial and psychological damage done to people who have to sell assets or take on debt to pay their bills. They either slip into a systemic pattern of poor behavior or never trust themselves again.
The rule of thumb is to have three-to-six months of your living expenses in cash, but I recommend having six-to-nine months as your default. Yes, my trauma is showing."
https://thisisthetop.substack.com/p/babys-first-recession
4. "For anyone who has worked in marketing, this utter disregard of customers and market research is mind-blowing. How can they possibly make so many decisions that run counter to user preferences? You couldn’t run a laundromat that way, so how can it work with a multibillion dollar global corporation?
There’s only one reason why they do this.
They do it because they’re so dominant they actually believe that they own you. Even if they don’t say it, that’s what they think.
I’ve focused here on Facebook, but there’s a larger lesson here. Web platforms don’t fail because of the competition. They don’t self-destruct because they are weak. The collapse comes because they are strong. They lose the thread because of their dominance and power, which gives their leaders the mindset of authoritarian rulers.
The solution is simple: Serve the users, instead of manipulating them."
https://tedgioia.substack.com/p/how-web-platforms-collapse-the-facebook
5. "In the past, I’ve heard the entrepreneur’s three jobs presented as the following:
-Set a mission and vision
-Find and nurture the best people
-Ensure there’s enough cash in the bank
While I believe those three to still be true, a fast growing business that’s transitioned from startup to scaleup needs a strong editor and curator.
More scale results in more competing interests and complexity. More scale results in more initiatives and more opportunities. Scaleups, even with an incredibly successful core business, can easily lose their way chasing The Next Big Thing. Saying “no” becomes even more important than saying “yes.”
https://davidcummings.org/2022/12/10/entrepreneur-as-editor-and-curator-of-ideas
6. "Today, the creation of popular consumer products often proceeds in the reverse order of operations. Internet influencers build massive followings on social media — in other words, they capture attention — then they go out and create products to sell to that audience.
That’s the exact playbook that Jimmy Donaldson (aka MrBeast) is perfecting. Only 24 years old, MrBeast has built an enormous audience by creating viral content like re-building Willy Wonka’s Chocolate Factory, amassing more than 200 million subscribers across multiple YouTube channels (as of last week, his original channel — with 112 million subs — made him the most followed person on YouTube)
And now he’s selling products to that audience."
https://trungphan.substack.com/p/mrbeasts-15b-youtube-empire
7. Any American who is still in Russia working now is a frigging moron and deserves what they will get.
8. "In short, our governments tell us they want us to prosper, and contribute to our economies. But their actions make this an impossible reality for most people at the bottom—resulting in the weakening overall economic prosperity of a nation, and the majority of economic wealth concentrating at the very top.
Something that many argue has been the plan all along.
But remember: if your nation’s ecosystem makes it impossible for you to play fairly within it, our world is structured so that you can go and do business somewhere else."
https://abundantia.substack.com/p/burning-your-future
9. Irony.
"Bankman-Fried’s loss has unquestionably been CoinDesk’s editorial gain: The site’s readership doubled to almost 17 million page views in November, according to internal company data, as its coverage has outpaced competition from traditional newsrooms like The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times. But CoinDesk, which has about 160 employees, now finds itself in an uncomfortable—and possibly unprecedented—position for a media company: While its reporting has vaulted the digital publication to new heights, its coverage could cripple its parent company and even force a sale of CoinDesk itself.
“Look, it’s been wild. I don’t suppose we ever expected the level of fallout from our initial scoop,” Casey admitted to me. “We knew we had something important. But we really didn’t quite realize that we had a story that would end up unraveling things so quickly. It’s been stunning to be in the middle of it.”
Just how in the middle is CoinDesk? Consider: CoinDesk is owned by Digital Currency Group, a privately held firm controlled and run by billionaire Barry Silbert. DCG also owns crypto lender Genesis Global Capital, and customers of Genesis worry that it, like many of its competitors, could face the same fate as FTX.
Two weeks after CoinDesk’s initial FTX report, Genesis suspended customer withdrawals from its lending business. It has since hired lawyers to stave off bankruptcy."
10. "That, put crudely, is Western thinking about Europe’s worst war since 1945. It is both cruel and dangerous. Cruel, because the suffering of the Ukrainian population (and the tens of thousands of battlefield casualties) are just collateral damage: something we have to accept on the road to an eventual ceasefire. Dangerous, because it ignores the real cause of the war and the only chance of lasting peace: the defeat of Russian imperialism."
https://cepa.org/article/the-only-path-to-peace
11. Must read encapsulation of the tech industry over the last 23 years. A must For ALL tech founders and investors.
https://bothsidesofthetable.com/praying-to-the-god-of-valuation-7f6758ba3b16
12. Morris Chang of TSMC always has insightful things to say. Great thread on his latest speech.
https://mobile.twitter.com/kevinsxu/status/1602018649010630657
13. "The best and most reliable way to appear interesting is to live an interesting life.
And to pursue that ends up being far more rewarding than merely making a good impression on others."
https://bakadesuyo.com/2014/01/interesting
14. There is a heck of A LOT to be optimistic about on the tech side. AI, Energy, Biotech, space. So many good things are coming. Read this and it’s not sci fi but sci fact.
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/techno-optimism-for-2023
15. Insightful take and teardown on the hated Ticketmaster’s business model.
https://thehustle.co/the-sneaky-economics-of-ticketmaster
16."If you look at every purchase you make as an investment in yourself and your future, then a few things might happen:
1. You’d realize that it’s not about having infinite choice but about making smarter and more well-informed decisions.
2. The pool of viable products would shrink to become very manageable, with just a few brands being able to satisfy your everyday essential needs.
3. You would automatically end up with fewer better things as your needs have become more known and refined.
Now, you could take this a step further and calculate your overall costs of all the things that you need every year on an everyday basis.
That would give you a very good idea of what your chosen lifestyle would cost or the potential for upgrading your lifestyle by making smarter investment decisions."
https://fewerbetterthings.substack.com/p/how-to-invest-in-yourself-and-your
17. "Successful Americans no longer feel the need to signal. So they now demonstrate their status through countersignaling. Other cultures still practice straightforward signaling.
Returning to the level of the individual, if you are trying to level up, the best approach is to borrow the strategies of those a little ahead of you—people who are still signaling. Beware of imitating those who are so far ahead that they can afford to countersignal.
If you are relatively early on your path, it is natural to seek advice from those who have achieved astounding success in your area of interest. You’d be better off, though, asking people who are on a similar trajectory as yourself, but a little further ahead. If you’re a white belt and want to level up, don’t ask the black belt (or red belt) what to do. Ask the purple belt."
https://robkhenderson.substack.com/p/the-perils-of-imitating-high-status
18. "By choosing to resist invasion in the name of freedom, Ukrainians have reminded us of this. And in doing so, they have offered us many interesting thoughts about what freedom might be. Volodymyr Zelens'kyi, for example, makes the interesting point that freedom and security tend to work together.
Throughout this war, speaking to Ukrainians, I have been struck that they define freedom as a positive project, as a way of being in the world, a richness of the future.
Freedom doesn't just mean overcoming the Russians; it means creating better and more interesting lives and a better and more interesting country."
https://snyder.substack.com/p/gratitude-to-ukraine
19. "In short: 1) continue waiting on RE, 2) if you’re wealthy look into bonds middle of Q1, 3) if there is *no* money printing, deflationary issues could show up in 2H23 and 4) if you’re in the market for a used car start looking now as it’s pretty bad. You can get a decent deal if you pay cash."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/rapid-fire-big-picture-update-macro
20. "Chris Dixon was one of the the first to coin the term ‘Single Player Mode’. Sangeet Paul Choudary calls it ‘Standalone Mode’.
'The idea is to initially attract users with a single-player tool and then, over time, get them to participate in a network. The tool helps get to initial critical mass. The network creates the long term value for users, and defensibility for the company'--Chris Dixon
It means that you create a tool which adds value to one side of the marketplace without the value proposition of connecting them to the other side of the marketplace.
Usually this product is a tool which solves a problem for the supply side.
While traditionally Single Player Mode has been defined from the user’s perspective (the customer who is using the product in standalone mode) I define it from the founder’s perspective (selling to one side of the marketplace, rather than two or more)."
https://alexfmac.substack.com/p/-marketplaces-zero-player-mode
21. This is lovely. Friends are family that you choose.
https://www.profgalloway.com/friends
22. "The key message of this article is that the adaptive capacity of an institution – its ability to adapt on the battlefield and as an institution – is critical to success in war. As Barno and Bensahel write, “preparing to adapt in the next war is just as important as preparing to fight itself.” This preparing to adapt must take place at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels of military forces.
Succeeding in the adaptation battle, founded on robust institutional learning, is a core part of war. It is the most human of endeavours.
Creativity, innovation, and a tolerance of failure are important components of a successful, adaptive military institution. It demands good leadership, experimentation and the humility to learn lessons from the mistakes and successes of others.
Keeping ahead of Russia in the adaptation battle has been an important component of Ukraine’s success so far in this war."
https://mickryan.substack.com/p/winning-the-adaptation-battle
23. Good advice for work and home life.
https://www.mattmunson.me/meeting-others-where-they-are
24. "It’s also interesting to think about what AI will do to the creative workforce. I tend to believe that it is more likely to automate out tasks, not whole jobs—that making it easier to get from zero to one in the creative process will only enable more creative experts to work on higher order, more challenging and interesting tasks.
That being said, I’d hate to be a stock photography model these days.
What this tech definitely does is that it expands the size of the creator market. In the early days of User Generated Content, the mantra was “everyone can be a creator” and we talked a lot about the long tail of artists."
https://ceonyc.substack.com/p/how-generative-ai-is-going-to-change
25. A Critical step of every fundraise that most folks overlook.
"For many founders, avoiding the elephant in the room can spell disaster for a fundraising process. Spending sufficient time before you fundraise to identify them, describe them, and effectively overcome them can dramatically increase your success rate."
https://chrisneumann.com/blog/the-elephant-in-the-room
26. "This potentially leaves quite a dilemma for the West. Will we continue to pour weapons and ammunition into Ukraine, if the war slows down? How long will we continue to support the Ukrainians so vigorously if there is no end in sight? The West is not well-adapted to gray-area conflicts fluctuating somewhere between war and peace.
We like to have war and then peace - not a little bit of both, and that confusion will unevitably spread dissent and disagreements between Western nations. I believe this is what the enigmatic Putin is currently betting on."
https://andreassteno.substack.com/p/the-great-game-5-the-bakhmut-bloodbath
27. "To generate outsized returns, you have to be comfortable with most people thinking you are an idiot. Prices on the assets you’re investing in will be lower and, if you’re right, the returns will be that much higher. It does, however, require a strong sense of confidence to employ this strategy. You have to be willing to be wrong, publicly, and perhaps for many years."
https://every.to/napkin-math/the-primary-trends-i-m-investing-in-next-year
28. This is a surprisingly optimistic view of the American economy. Hope he is right.
https://www.thelykeion.com/the-case-for-a-soft-landing-in-the-us
29. "Africa is set to remain deeply enmeshed in the modern Superpower confrontations. It is a proxy fight and inherently tied up in the confrontation between Russia and China, and the West. Russia is recruiting from Africa for the war effort in Ukraine. Is this a sign of weakness, as The Daily Beast suggests, or is it evidence that Russia is preparing to unleash more migrants on the EU?
The EU senses that trouble is brewing, and the latter may be a problem. They are launching two “Team Europe Initiatives” to deal with any possible upsurge in migration from Africa to Europe. It is hard to dispute the idea that Africa is now caught up again in a new Great Game between the major superpowers.
It is worth considering how all this will look in the rearview mirror of history when we try to understand what WWII looked like at the start. Some countries will become its new front line. Others will stay out of the fray and emerge stronger and wealthier. Now is the time to think through the possibilities and probabilities.
At the same time, African nations are making decisions that make it easier for entrepreneurs to flourish and for technological advances to occur ever faster. Now is a good time to think about what African capital markets will look like in a decade. I believe that there will be enough good stories and success to warrant time and attention today."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/africas-calling
30. This is a big deal: Japan is arming up even more! Very important in geopolitical sphere.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jK54VH_IE5s
31. "Historically, recycling has been seen as positive for everyone involved: VCs, their LPs and startups. The only downside typically mentioned is that recycling delays the time until investors start to receive cash distributions from the fund (“delaying DPI” in VC parlance).
Recently, a worrisome trend has emerged amongst a handful of multi-stage funds that reflects a dark side of VC recycling: funds attempting to force startups to shut down or sell so that they can recapture and redeploy their investment dollars within their recycling period."
https://chrisneumann.com/blog/the-dark-side-of-vc-recycling
32. Kaboom! My friend Zach is a great investor and founders are lucky to have him on the cap table.
https://www.axios.com/2022/12/14/coelius-capital-raised-333-million-2022
33. China is in big trouble. Important to watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0BNUF9ItmQ&t=367s
34. So many nuggets here on geopolitics. Zeihan is always informative.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHUoMmKDLUI
35. This is old news but sure....."Bleisure" travelers.
https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/bleisure-travel-begins-takeoff-5517148
36. Some good info on Patriots in Ukraine. Calculus has changed due to even more Russian atrocities and genocide in Ukraine. #russiaisterroriststate
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5_DyC0_K1xI
37. Excellent discussion especially on valuations of tech companies. Worth watching.
The 3 Levels of Business: The Framework for Your Career Growth
Justin Waller is a sharp dude, having come from total poverty to building a steel business that does $10M usd a year. His friends call him a “Blue Collar Baller” and it shows there are so many different career and business paths to the top. He has also become quite the online influencer sharing all his insights along his path up. He quotes his friend Tristan Tate about the framework for Business and Career growth that really stuck with me. He says there are 3 Levels to business that all successful business owners have to step through.
Level 1: You are Paid for What You Do.
You have to start at the bottom, keep your mouth shut, eyes & ears wide open and work your ass off.
Most people get stuck here because they either are too arrogant or entitled and think the work is beneath them. Or they just don’t want to do the work.
Level 2: You are Paid for What You Know.
You have accumulated enough experience and know-how that people now ask you for advice or to be involved. This was one reason I think I was asked to join 500 Startups as a Partner. Or an investor being asked to invest in some awesome startups. Or getting paid money to speak, advise or share your knowledge at big conferences/events or with various governmental or big corporate businesses.
Level 3: You are Paid for Who You Are.
This is a bigtime influencer, brand name level. You get business because of the reputation and the network you have established before. And everyone (well almost everyone) wants to do business with you or wants you involved. This is not about being famous but about being very well respected and “known” to those that matter in your business and your life.
When I think back to my career, I have been unintentionally following this path.
Level 1: What You Do: After so many fits and starts in my early twenties, when I joined the early stage startup and then Yahoo! I worked ferociously like my life depended on it. I worked on average 90-100 hours a week. I did this for a decade which also caused me to burn out and take 2 years off from my earnings. But I did accumulate enough knowledge that I could leverage for future career & business. I would say this encompassed the first 19.5 years of my time in Silicon Valley. Yes, it took a long time.
Level 2: What You Know: Which is where I think I am. You have to be a complete idiot NOT to pick up something useful after so long in the tech business. I’m fortunate to get offers all the time to participate in investment deals or join numerous Investment Committees of some other Venture Capital funds. Or get paid to speak at many events or corporate groups or advise some large organizations involved in the startup ecosystem (For the record: I refuse to take money from early stage startups but I will if they are subsidized by government funds. I just end up donating this amount (after taxes) to various charities I support anyways).
On the bright side, I have a clear view to get to Level 3: So I'm working hard on getting there :). I’m back on the conference speaking circuit. I’m writing this newsletter and I share every good thing I read on social media. Hopefully as my writing gets better (still a long ways away) and people think I’m adding value and have some interesting things to say, I may get to this new level eventually. But in the meantime, I’m enjoying the process which is probably the main goal and point anyways.
If you put this against almost every successful person it fits very well. So for all you young and old folks out there trying to find your way: this is a good framework to follow. And there is no way to skip a level and there are no shortcuts just like in life. So just “do the work” and you will level up.