Lemons Ripen Early: Playing the Long Game
It’s a great term used in Venture Capital. Basically in your investment portfolio, your bad investments usually die early, leading to the very scary but normal J-curve where the overall portfolio value dips but then in theory grows in massive value after some time.
I learned this during my time in VC and it’s a shock for newbies. But it’s actually a good thing in the long run as your winners start to emerge and you don’t have to spend your time on companies that will never go anywhere. Especially in the early stage like pre-seed and seed stage.
I’ve seen this especially for investments in the peak of the money cycle, founders who expect that it’s easy to raise money, find it hard to adapt to a tougher fundraising environment. Or maybe even worse, when they are able to successfully raise money and develop some really bad and expensive habits, are forced to go out and raise with a bad business model, crappy unit economics and massive cost structure. Basically at least 50% of the so-called Unicorns in 2021.
It’s like growing up rich and then finding out your family lost their business and money because your dad gambled it away at Vegas. Most people never recover from this.
Where I would have questions is if you quit one year in (or less). I’m not sure you really have given your all. Even in a job, I don’t really find job hoppers who pop around to new companies or new jobs every year being super effective at what they do. It takes at least two years to see a project fully done and where you maximize learning.
This is a grit and grind game. And it usually takes at least 2 years before you hit some product market fit. Most founders quit too early. It’s one thing if you work on something for 2-4 years and quit. It means you have done everything you possibly could, pivoting or adopting your product, looking at new customer segments. I can’t fault that, you died with honor. And for most investors, we’d be more than willing to fund their next company.
So play the long game. Don’t worry too much about the short term pain and setbacks. Keep learning and keep going.
Avoid Boring People: A Good Rule of Life
I love that quote from polymath investor Josh Wolfe. And it’s a double entendre. He means that you should avoid people who are boring. And we know many of these folks in our day to day lives. Otherwise talented and smart folks who put you to sleep.
But there is also an onus on you. You have a responsibility to be interesting. Ie. Avoid boring people you meet. And in this day and age it really shouldn’t be that hard with the internet and all the access it provides. Plus we have cheap airlines that fly to almost anywhere in the world. So you can explore all the amazing places we have on earth.
You need to build and work on getting half decent social skills. Learn how to listen and converse with people (not always easy to find in a place like Silicon Valley).
Get some unique hobbies or even not so unique hobbies. Or play a sport. Do something. No one likes a workaholic salaryman with nothing else going on in their life.
Read books. Travel the world and meet different people. Be curious and have a point of view.
That’s really all you need to do to stand out in a world of blah.
To take it to the next level, be passionate about something. Even better, have a big massive mission in life.
So my friends, do all of this and you will stop boring people! :)
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads July 30th, 2023
“Your calm mind is the ultimate weapon against your challenges.” — Bryant McGill
"The endurance of alliances can be partly explained by inertia, vested interests, and sunk costs. But there is more to it. Modern alliances are defensive in nature and are therefore more resilient than the aggression-oriented pacts of the distant past. Moreover, they are generic as opposed to threat-specific: they apply to any aggression. This has rendered them capable of confronting the re-emergence of perceived threats, or be the vehicle for dealing with new ones.
The growth of the Western system of military alliances and partnerships is mostly a consequence of the radicalization of Russian and Chinese policies (as well as North Korean and Iranian ones). To use political science jargon, there is more “balancing” going on vis-à-vis Moscow and Beijing, and more “bandwagoning” with the United States.
Then again, the US system is “unique in human history.” A scholar calculated that US alliances covered some 25% of the world’s population and 75% of its GDP. It is institutionalized like no other. NATO is not only the biggest formal alliance in the world but also one of only two (with RoK/US Combined Forces Korea) that has a permanent military command. It has proven flexible enough to lead major operations with non-members. Unlike ad hoc coalitions, NATO allows for collective decision-making, tested procedures, interoperability, and the use of common assets. US-based alliances tend to last twice as long as non-US-based ones: the main treaty-based US alliances forged after 1945 are historical outliers in terms of their duration.
The United States stands out as a security guarantor due to the combination of its helpful location, its democratic nature and it unparalleled power. US-led formal alliances are also unique in that they involve both interests and ideals."
https://samf.substack.com/p/the-role-of-security-guarantees
2. "Turkey’s eventual acquiescence, the many pledges to Ukraine, and the broader commitments to NATO’s defense helped everyone leave Vilnius with the sense that solidarity and unity were intact but maybe not unshakable. As Biden noted, NATO did not break apart. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine gave NATO a renewed sense of purpose. But the alliance is still figuring out exactly how it will fulfill it."
https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/7/12/23784649/nato-summit-ukraine-biden-zelenskyy-vilnius
3. "As with all bear markets, the appetite for risk drops, and although emerging fund managers are often noted to outperform their more established counterparts, some limited partners are weary of bringing on new venture partners. Instead, they retreat to their trusted, established partners.
For some emerging managers, this means the market will become tougher to penetrate. For those with funds that are focused on backing diverse founders who are already working with less capital, the drawback is often the difference between another round or closing shop."
https://techcrunch.com/2023/06/19/small-vc-firms-bear-market/
4. "U.S. venture continues to be a hits-driven business. Overall industry returns, and most fund returns, are driven by the relatively small percent of outcomes that are the winners."
https://medium.com/correlation-ventures/venture-capital-were-still-not-normal-9d07d354db88
5. "Where does Team Doomberg fall on the matter? Longtime readers will know that our personal financial strategy has three pillars: we earn money in fiat, we save by buying real assets, such as gold, land, and collectibles, and we invest privately where we can personally impact the outcome. Within that context, gold plays an important role as a wealth preserver, and we own a meaningful amount of both physical gold and the Sprott Physical Gold Trust (NYSE: PHYS).
Gold is not our vehicle for speculation, and the prospect of a competitor to the US Dollar does not compel us to change our current allocation either way. A careful reading of what our five experts submitted finds surprisingly little they disagree upon: displacing the US Dollar system will be hard and take longer than many think, lots of countries would like to do so, the seizing of Russia’s assets has only increased the motivation to try, and the ultimate impact on the price of gold, oil, and the value of the US Dollar in the unlikely event such an effort succeeds is incredibly challenging to model.
A bedrock philosophy of prudence is “when in doubt, do nothing.”
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/something-or-nothing
6. "Confronted by a toxic cocktail of high energy costs, worker shortages and reams of red tape, many of Germany’s biggest companies — from giants like Volkswagen and Siemens to a host of lesser-known, smaller ones — are experiencing a rude awakening and scrambling for greener pastures in North America and Asia.
Absent an unexpected turnaround, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that Germany is headed for a much deeper economic decline.
To understand the long-term effects of deindustrialization, one needn’t look further than America’s Rust Belt or the U.K.’s Midlands, once thriving industrial corridors that fell victim to policy missteps and global competitive pressures and never fully recovered.
Only with Germany, the consequences would play out on a continental scale.
The country’s reliance on industry makes it particularly vulnerable. With the exception of software maker SAP, Germany’s tech sector is essentially non-existent. In the financial world, its biggest players are best known for making bad bets (Deutsche Bank) and scandal (Wirecard). Manufacturing accounts for about 27 percent of its economy, compared with 18 percent in the U.S.
A related problem is that Germany’s most important industrial segments — from chemicals to autos to machinery — are rooted in 19th-century technologies. While the country has thrived for decades by optimizing those wares, many of them are either becoming obsolete (the internal combustion engine) or simply too expensive to produce in Germany."
https://www.politico.eu/article/rust-belt-on-the-rhine-the-deindustrialization-of-germany/
7. Never get enough of Justin Waller. The Blue Collar Baller.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZ7sy14nO8I
8. This is the new face of war. Drone swarms.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjInnRL-HUg
9. Rise of California in last 40+ years were driven by several trends now going in reverse. Exacerbated by stupid Progressive left policies & declining quality of life.
A major transformation and reinvention will be needed soon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AU9zwaF08SA
10. "So. If we know the following trends are here to stay: 1) gambling, 2) quick fixes, 3) drugs, 4) partying/sugar arrangements and 5) complete emphasis on fast results, you have the blueprint to avoid all of this stuff and get miles ahead in less than 5-10 years or so. *gasps a whopping 5-10 years to get crazy rich is too long!*. Better go find a FOREX course for turning $20K into $500K in 6 months! Only $20K to sign up!
Why It Is Happening?
This isn’t really important but people obsess over knowing the “why”. The why is actually simple. It is due to the platform nature of the USA. There are now “platforms” that dominate everything. Twitter, Instagram, Pinterest, TikTok etc. Once you see platforms, you see what we mean.
Platforms are full of billions of people. They are also extremely easy tools to trick people."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/americas-future-degeneracy-and-milking
11. I always learn from this man: Justin Waller.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tr-aS3YD-sA
12. "Finding product-market fit is a game, and games have levels. My product-market fit game has five levels:
-Find a significant problem to work on
-Validate the problem by talking to users
-Get users to use your product
-Keep users coming back
-Onboard your first 5 reference customers
You need to complete all five levels to win. All but the first have multiple failure modes, which I've listed – go through them sequentially. You might find you cannot complete a level. This is a sign you need to pivot your entire company. I touch on this at the end."
https://posthog.com/blog/product-market-fit-game
13. Tokyo is amazing and it’s my favorite city on the planet. It’s a magical place.
"There is only one Tokyo, like there is only one Paris.
That’s true in quantitative as well as qualitative terms; the sheer scale of Tokyo is unimaginable. With over 37 million people, it is the largest human city in existence, whether measured by “urban area” or “metropolitan area”. It is important to understand exactly what this means. The city of Tokyo proper is about half as dense as New York City — 6,169 people per square kilometer compared to 11,316. That is because the “population density” of a municipal area is counted as the number of people who sleep there, not the number of people who are there. Tokyo proper is less “dense” than New York proper because so many of the people who work and shop and hang out in Tokyo live outside the city’s statutory boundaries.
In Tokyo, you can meet pretty much anybody — business execs, artists, professors, entrepreneurs, even gangsters if you want to. One great thing about a city as safe as Tokyo is that it’s not really dangerous to meet strangers. There’s a subtle sense of communality in Tokyo that exists in very few large cities. The shared spaces feel more shared.
Combine diversity with the tourism boom — which has returned with a vengeance since the end of the pandemic — and Tokyo has become a place where you hear every language of the globe spoken in the streets and shops and restaurants. In fact, if there is one thing that has gotten significantly worse about Tokyo over the last few years, it’s overcrowding due to the tourism; Tokyo is just so wonderful that everyone goes there. I can’t exactly blame them.
The immigration boom, among other things, has enriched Tokyo’s already excellent food culture immensely. The country is a culinary mecca; so many chefs have moved there that the country arguably has better Italian food than Italy itself. It has also enlivened the already world-class art, music, and fashion scenes — in my opinion, even above NYC. If you’re an artist or author or musician looking for where it’s at, in the past you would go to Paris, then to New York; now, increasingly, you will go to Tokyo. I predict that over the next two decades, trends and ideas will increasingly originate in Tokyo and spread to the rest of the world."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/tokyo-is-the-new-paris
14. Bullish on Poland, as an economy but also major regional power.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6I6FczLXc5M
15. Ukrainian agriculture coming offline and this has huge effects for the Middle East, South Asia and Africa.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nPg7AdXSrbE
16. Good description of Europe's doom loop.
"I think the macro lesson here is bad things happen when you stop valuing innovation and the benefits of creative destruction. (Of course, it would be even worse if the US went down the EU path since at least the EU can benefit from American innovation.)
We’re already seeing Europe embrace the precautionary principle with AI, with plenty of American policy activists and policymakers suggesting the same here. I hope the US continues to show that its competitive advantage is mostly avoiding the anti-progress mistakes that Europe continues to make."
https://fasterplease.substack.com/p/learning-from-europes-doom-loop-of
17. "Horns of a Dilemma
The solution is a concept familiar to military planes and pundits alike – and the objective of any self-respecting fire support planner – which is to put the enemy on the horns of a dilemma: in seeking to avoid one weapon, he makes himself more vulnerable to another. Drip-feeding ever more capable systems enables any enemy – and the Russians are no exception – to avoid such a fate, by dealing with one horn at a time.
This will mean employing multiple long-range capabilities –without getting too focused on specific platforms -- at sufficient scale to put the Russians on the horns of dilemma. ATACMs may contribute to this goal, but it cannot be the only solution. ATACMs combined with long range drones and Storm Shadow missiles would be a start – along with plans to add F-16s armed with NATO compatible missile systems to keep the pot bubbling."
https://amilburn.substack.com/p/ben-wallace-amazon-and-atacms
18. More data on the rise of Poland as a military power. Their tragic history of multiple partitions shows you can never be complacent.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvFTJUrJi_o
19. An excellent guide to consumer subscription businesses and how to overcome challenges inherent to them. Highly recommend it.
https://caseyaccidental.com/consumer-subscription
20. Good summary of Turkey's economic situation. It's ugly but some green shoots if they stick to a more orthodox economic policy.
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/turkey-economic-outlook
21. "Nowadays, there are four things that are gonna decide if I have a good day. Did I sleep enough? Did I connect deeply with people I love? Did I get some time to myself? Did I make choices for my body that felt good—like, did I take a good walk, did I eat healthy, did I exercise? If I get those four things in place, usually my days are pretty good. The more they begin to fall apart, the worse everything else gets. So those can be built on habits, but they’re not exactly habits.
The hard thing is that when they begin to degrade, it actually becomes harder to keep them in place. If you’re more disconnected from people you love, it's harder to sleep. If it's harder to sleep, you're more irritable. So I have to think of things as being less about habits and more about fundamentals."
https://www.gq.com/story/ezra-klein-routine-excellence
22. Actually Saudi has already been a welcoming place for me personally. I recommend visiting. But this is a good explanation of their involvement in investing in global sports franchises.
"Now, there is definitely some sportswashing going on here. Saudi Arabia will never make back the billions it spent on LIV Golf, and many of its other sports investments are too small for them to seriously claim its intent is financial diversification.
But I don’t think that’s their goal. Instead, Saudi Arabia wants to turn their country into a tourist destination, like Dubai. That’s because they will make significantly more money on that than anything else.
And by investing in sports assets like Formula 1, Newcastle United, and the PGA Tour, companies like Uber, Disney, and Facebook, and multi-million-dollar tourism sponsorship deals with athletes like Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi, Saudi Arabia is hoping to soften its image and promote its country as a welcoming place."
https://huddleup.substack.com/p/why-saudi-arabia-will-invest-billions
23. Turkey is the other growing power to watch in Europe (besides Poland)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXPMTJN_bCo
24. End of an era in venture capital. Mike Moritz is a legend in the business.
25. This is an eye-opening documentary. This is also why we absolutely must support Ukraine against Russia's invasion. They won't be stopping at Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Y_t3ayMOvY&t=1619s
26. "The point of this essay is to explain
-why venture is different from other asset classes (you cannot “index” it)
-why many fund-of-funds aren’t worth the fees (they try to index it)
-why some fund-of-funds are (they concentrate where others don’t)
This, I also suspect, is why it’s nearly impossible to index venture. Most funds can’t capitalise on the asymmetry to begin with. Those who can, usually only do it for one or two vintages. If a fund manages to do well over multiple cycles, they inevitably become access constrained and out of reach for most LPs."
https://jordsnel.substack.com/p/indexing-venture-and-other-fools
27. "Taiwan’s bid to mass produce drones is part of an intensifying military rivalry that is dividing Asia, setting off a sprint to harness emerging technologies with the potential to deliver a decisive boost in firepower. On one side are the United States and its allies, including Taiwan, Australia, Japan and South Korea, who want to preserve American dominance in the region.
On the other is an increasingly assertive China, determined to gain control over the democratically governed island and displace America as the leading regional power.
In this high-tech arms race, military and civilian researchers from both sides are scrambling to seize the lead across a swathe of fields, including artificial intelligence, autonomous weapons, advanced semiconductors, hypersonic flight, quantum computing and cyber warfare.
The presentation noted Ukraine had used drones to conduct “asymmetrical warfare” and surprise attacks. It advised that Taiwan aim to become a major exporter of drone components and an R&D center for this technology in Asia, with the government coordinating efforts. Taiwan should accelerate mass production of a range of military drones to boost self-reliance in the struggle with Beijing, it concluded.
While Taiwan gears up to build a drone pipeline, it is also planning measures to offset China's advantage in numbers.
Local companies are working on counter-drone technology, including interceptor drones. If the enemy sends in “hundreds of drones all at once, we need to be able to identify them and assign missions,” said Wang Yu-jiu, chairman and CEO of Tron Future, which is developing anti-drone devices such as jammers that will disable incoming drones.
“This is a war of technology,” said Wang."
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/us-china-tech-taiwan/
28. "What is the point of all this? Our economy, education, laws, our society? I’d offer that the whole shooting match, the whole reason for a nation, is to create a context for deep and meaningful relationships. Deaths of despair, a lack of economic opportunity, and lost young men are all signs that our nation continues to offer prosperity but not progress. It’s time again to start investing. America needs young men, and they need us."
https://www.profgalloway.com/boys-to-men/
29. "This is the part of the startup cycle that’s the grit-your-teeth grind.
Some startups focus on product development. Others focus on winning competitive share by investing in sales & marketing.
Having that focus enables companies to continue to execute through the dark skies & maintain a level of urgency in the organization throughout the storm to be well positioned once the rain abates."
https://tomtunguz.com/its-supposed-to-be-hard-2/
30. "If you want to start a revolution, you have to be willing to do things that the other side won’t. The difference today is in the way the combat is happening. Nobody is really “marching through the institutions”; they’re marching through your mind.
Go through the list of politicians and pundits on the Left and Right both and you will always find that the person who seems less entangled in rivalry, counter-punching, and grandstanding language (framing everything as an existential crisis which only they, or their party can solve, etc.) is the person getting less engagement and generating less “energy”."
https://read.lukeburgis.com/p/the-age-of-gladiators
31. "My theory is that the more money people have, the more social debt they tend to be burdened with.
The point is not to say you should avoid nice cars and nice homes – I like both. It’s a realization that once money goes from being a tool you can use to make yourself happy to a symbol of what other people measure you by, you are buried in a kind of social debt that’s hard to measure but has a real impact on your happiness.
I once did some consulting for a family that’s worth $8 billion. If you Googled their name, nothing came up. No Forbes list, no gala photos, no profiles, no Wikipedia pages … nothing.
That was intentional.
They figured out what so many other people fail to recognize: The way you maximize enjoying your money is by eliminating social debt.
They had total freedom, privacy, and independence. They chose their friends carefully and gave money away anonymously. It may have been their most valuable asset.
It reminded me of what Naval once said: The best position to be in is rich and anonymous."
Arrogance is the Leading Indicator to Failure in Startups and Life
I have probably met thousands, if not tens of thousands of startup founders all over the world. And invested in hundreds. I’ve met all kinds, from all over the world, of every denomination and nationality. You have the odd crook, idiot or liar, but almost universally these were smart, driven and admirable human beings.
Yet the ones that stand out to me in a truly negative way are the arrogant ones. The ones who claim know everything, who preen of superiority. These guys, and yes they are almost always guys, just seem insufferable and hard to be around with. It’s a big red flag for me. It means they won’t take feedback from the market, it means people will not want to work with them or even want to help them.
I vividly remember meeting one of them at one of the many accelerators I mentor at in early 2023. I had to walk away after 10 minutes, he was so obnoxious. I’m used to young obnoxious founders, who have the excuse of youth and who just don’t know any better. But this was a 35+ year old male who should just know better. I walked away with the thought: “I want nothing to do with this person and I will never work or even attempt to help them” as nice as his colleagues were. And I really like to think I do want to help people as it’s my life mission to positively impact 10 million people while I am alive. But this was a bridge too far for me.
So to my point, arrogance is dangerous. You turn off your brain from information from the outside, and think you know more than you really do. Seems risky when the world around you is changing so quickly. This complexity makes it hard to stay on top of everything. I’ve stated the term “Hubris” before, defined as “excessive pride or self confidence.” The ancient Greeks defined this as a character flaw capable of provoking the wrath of the gods.
And there is something to this as arrogance does turn people against you unnecessarily. Not that they would actively plot against you, unless you are a total jerk. But they would be much more hesitant to offer help. And in this world, no one goes it alone. Success is almost always alongside others. If you are a founder or leader with a bad attitude, the best people will not choose to work with you.
I will make the last point and know as a Venture Capitalist writing this, it’s like the “pot calling the kettle black.” Venture capital is an industry notorious for being filled with awful, obnoxious and arrogant people, and why most founders don’t like VCs. I don’t blame them & I get it. Learn from them. Who wants to be disliked if you can avoid it.
What I will say to these hubristic founders is to paraphrase something I saw on Twitter, “You can only have Michael Jordan’s bad attitude, if you have Michael Jordan’s skills and track record.”
Preparing for the Spikes: Seasonality in Business and Life
I was doing my taxes and realized that the bulk of the money I made last year was in the final quarter.
Most of the money in retail is made in the fourth quarter of the year. Media advertising too. In fact, according to AMEX, 42% of businesses report that it’s the most profitable quarter of the year. Hence, crucial to the survival and thriving of your business.
Pareto’s famous 20/80 rule is the key here. That in all facets of life 20% of your relationships will drive 80% of your happiness (and conversely your pain). 20% of your customers drive 80% of your revenue. And maybe more importantly, 20% of your time leads to 80% of your results. I would argue in technology it might actually be the 10/90 rule in investing and startup success. Almost everything is becoming asymmetric: meaning that small things could lead to amazing & unexpected outcomes.
This is kind of the reason I really don’t care about my kid missing school: Attendance and set times for work are reflective of Industrial Age thinking. Training people to do a shift and make widgets.
Unfortunately, this is not conducive to what works or is needed in the new creative knowledge age of work. Ideas, inspiration and creativity are sporadic and cannot be forced. Maybe most importantly, each idea is not equal. I wish it could be standardized as a widget but alas. These interesting ideas or insights show up at the strangest times, like during a walk, in the middle of conversation or even late at night after a hot shower or bath.
This goes to the point of my previous write up based on Naval Ravikant’s famous quote “of working like a lion, not like a cow: https://hardfork.substack.com/p/work-like-a-lion-not-like-a-cow
Now don’t get me wrong, you have to show up on time for meetings. You have to do the hard work and prepare. You have to put in your time. Do the reps to get really good at something. Even if you know most of your business will come in 1 quarter, you still have to get yourself and your team ready for it ahead of that time. You need to prepare by experimenting & trying new different ideas, which eventually leads to optimization of all your processes.
You also need to have a habit of hard work and excellence. Build the relationships that matter. That is how you prepare for the expected or unexpected opportunities that come up. As I’ve quoted Louis Pasteur many times: “Chance Favors the Prepared Mind.”
If you do this, your time will come. It’s not just about the time you put in, it’s also the quality of the time. Build good habits and seize the moment or inspiration when it comes. And remember the outcome is all that matters.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads July 23rd, 2023
“We must always change, renew, rejuvenate ourselves, otherwise we harden.” — Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
"Back in 2017/2018, Venezuela’s stock market was up over 40,000% in a single year, which made it the best performing stock market at the time. Why? Inflation was estimated to hit 1,000,000% within months.
The easiest way to understand what is happening in Venezuela, Zimbabwe, and other hyperinflation countries is that assets are priced in the local currency — just as real estate goes up over the long term due to the devaluation of US dollars. The currency that each stock is denominated in is being devalued, so the “price” of the asset continues to increase. A buyer has to spend more (devalued!) local currency to purchase the same stock.
An 800% return in Zimbabwe sounds amazing, but it is actually a sign of economic destruction. The currency has hit hyperinflation, the central bank has lost control, and citizens are seeking relief. Over time, we should expect Zimbabweans to gain access to other financial assets. It wouldn’t be hard to see demand for US dollar stablecoins or bitcoin."
https://pomp.substack.com/p/zimbabwes-stock-market-is-exploding
2. "It might have come down to either winning the war or keeping his power for Putin, and he might end up with neither. Over the next months, a lot could happen inside Russia because Prigozhin might have opened the pandora’s box.
I can’t predict what will happen, but there is now a new challenger and evidence that some inside the system will sign on change if the opportunity arises. So a lot could happen. Oh also, there is this whole counteroffensive thing that has not yet really begun. If we enter autumn with a successful counteroffensive on par with last year’s, I wouldn’t want to be Putin."
https://shaykhatiri.substack.com/p/three-one-thoughts-on-prigozhins
3. "This is an important concept to repeat religiously.
Every single person who wants to get rich (anything above $10M+ is baseline for being rich), needs to get comfortable with *losing valuable time*. Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and all the other major companies have had *negative* yielding ideas. Coinbase’s NFT platform would be exhibit A of a mainstream failure. Both time and money were wasted.
End of each day just have three line items: 1) time spent on health, 2) time spent on money vs. time exchange and 3) time spent working on something scalable.
In 10 years this should read: 1) time spent on health, 2) time spent on working on something scalable.
You will be forced to trade your time for money. Working on projects or being paid by someone else (early in your life). This is just reality unless you were born with a trust fund.
The goal over 10 years is to make sure that time for money exchange is going *down*. If it is not going down you’ve got problems because it will end with 30 minute commutes to go into an office instead of a cube… doing the exact same thing.
Trading time for money."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/how-much-is-your-time-worth
4. Lots of good tips here from Bryan Johnson on longevity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dukGGLnLiN4&t=2682s
5. "We’re going to continue to see two trends:
-Cost to train models going down - Driven by GPU prices and efficiency of algorithms. This will lead to more model providers and ultimately more competition at the model layer.
-Cost of inference going down - Driven by GPU prices, efficiency of algorithms, and increased competition.
Both of these are great for people building applications on top of LLMs or LLM tooling and make the business models of those companies more attractive. This should continue to place pricing pressure on closed source model providers and may lead more companies to start with open source ones.
In addition, use cases that are economically infeasible today, may be more attractive in the future as costs continue to come down."
https://unsupervisedlearning.substack.com/p/why-databricks-bought-mosaic-and
6. This is always a good conversation on what’s happening in cultural, creative and internet businesses.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6o8DtP0WTvs
7. I am not sure how I feel about this. Reconstruction after war always brings in idealists, opportunists and carpetbaggers.
"Last year, the Ukrainian government essentially outsourced the entire post-war “reconstruction” process to BlackRock, the world’s largest asset management firm. They signed an agreement to “provide advisory support for designing an investment framework, with a goal of creating opportunities for both public and private investors to participate in the future reconstruction and recovery of the Ukrainian economy”. In February, J.P. Morgan was brought on board as well.
In January this year, addressing the participants of the meeting of the National Association of State Chambers, Zelensky described American business as the “locomotive that will once again push forward global economic growth”. No one would blame Zelensky for choosing the lesser of two evils here: Western banks over Russian tanks.
Yet, the grim fact remains that even if his nation succeeds in repealing the Russian invasion, the future in store for Ukraine is not necessarily one of sovereignty and self-determination but, most likely, one of Western economic tutelage."
https://unherd.com/2023/07/the-capitalists-are-circling-over-ukraine/
8. The math behind VC Syndicates. ie. there are much easier ways of making money. So you better love the game of investing.
https://lastmoneyin.beehiiv.com/p/economics-200m-aum-venture-capital-syndicate-gp
9. "Given that we focus on pre-seed and seed-stage companies, much of the fundraising focus is on what it takes to unlock a Series A round of financing. Most of the founders I work with want to know what metrics or KPIs they need to hit to unlock the Series A round. I get why founders want to know the answer to the test, but in my experience, fundraises don’t work that way.
Here’s what I tell founders when they ask me what they need to hit in order to unlock the Series A round:
'There is no magic number, in terms of revenue or KPIs, that will unlock a Series A round by itself. Metrics are just one of many inputs that go into the decision.'
https://www.charleshudson.net/theres-no-such-thing-as-series-a-metrics
10. Good discussion of the growing economic war between China and the USA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OX0jX-uUZXw
11. "To that end, my hope is that artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics will be used primarily to eliminate the tedious, bullshit work in which most of humanity currently toils, so that more and more people can pursue their passions in a similar fashion. Ideally, this will lead to our next great renaissance of art and culture, as millions (or even billions) of humans are suddenly free to do what they love and create happiness through art.
An AI shouldn’t trust any institution that requires humans to operate it, as 1) humans are fallible and 2) AIs on a probabilistic basis will outlast human civilization. Gold and Bitcoin mining could be done by AI powered robots in the future, but fiat currency requires the administration of governments composed of humans. An AI is unlikely to allow itself to rely on anything that a human government operates therefore only gold and Bitcoin are suitable.
A tie between gold and Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is thus the logical currency choice for any AI. It is purely digital, censorship resistant, provably scarce, and its intrinsic value is completely electricity-cost-dependent. There is nothing in existence today that comes close to challenging Bitcoin on these aspects."
https://medium.com/@cryptohayes/massa-96ae856effcd
12. "So here's my message to you: In the high-stakes game of social media, adaptability is your best ally. Recognize the opportunities, be the early bird, and remember - fertile ground is for those ready to sow. Social media is more than a playground, it's your domain. Let's conquer it. Let the games begin.
And so, as we step off the “Threadmill”, remember - it's not just about keeping pace, it's about adapting, conquering, and owning the run."
https://latecheckout.substack.com/p/the-threadmill-effect
13. "What Ukraine is doing now is similar intellectually but even more difficult (they dont have rivers to aid them by providing specific targets). They have identified what they need to neutralize on the Russian side to succeed, and now they need to try and take those outs. They are starting clearly by making Russian artillery a very high priority. They will probably stay on that for a while. When they feel they have done what they can here, they will switch to attacks on Russians forces in the lines.
This will take time—even months. Because war is so dangerous for the offensive side, and Ukraine doesnt want to waste its forces like the Russians did at Bakhmut for instance, they must proceed methodically to weaken the Russians before advancing. Its also the only Ukrainian option—because of the specific way that they have been armed."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-36-500-days
14. "This is a critical stage of the war and a lot depends on what happens over the coming weeks. So far Ukrainian advances have been modest – a bit over 160 square kilometres. Some units are now close to Russia’s main defence line although most are still some distance away.
We can note evidence of poor coordination between Russian units and how they often, but not always, lose out in small-scale engagements, but also that Russian defences have not yet buckled. This remains a tough and costly fight for Ukraine. During this attritional phase we can see the potential for progress but it has yet to be realised. Only when and if the strike phase is reached will we be able to measure Ukrainian progress on the map."
https://samf.substack.com/p/attrition-before-breakthrough
15. "In any case, it seems likely that China’s growth will now slow to developed-country levels, or slightly higher, without much prospect for a sustained re-acceleration. At this point, with the economic value of additional real estate and infrastructure so low, a re-acceleration would require a massive burst of productivity growth, which just seems unlikely.
That means China’s catch-up growth only took it to 30% of U.S. per capita GDP (PPP). Even if it manages to climb up to 40%, that’s still a fairly disappointing result — South Korea is at 71% and Japan at 65%. (China’s defenders will say that it’s harder to grow a big country than a small one, but…well, the U.S. is a fairly big country as well.) This is another example of China’s peak being both awe-inspiring and strangely disappointing at the same time.
But I think the very complexity of Altasia will lead to its own sort of adventure and excitement. We haven’t seen an entire region industrialize all at once since Europe in the late 1800s (the closest thing being the Asian “tiger economies” of the 80s and 90s, which was really just Altasia’s predecessor). This will be much bigger. Investment and trade and diplomatic links will be flying back and forth between these various countries at a frenetic pace. Everyone will be trying to figure out who builds what where, where they source from, and where they sell to. Eventually, cultural links will follow.
And for Western companies looking for new markets, Altasia will potentially be more exciting than China ever was. The Chinese market delivered riches to some, but the government banned some products (especially internet services) and stole the technology used to make others. Ultimately, China’s billion consumers turned out to be a mirage for many. The economies and societies of Altasia, in comparison, are much more open to foreign products.
And in the poorer countries of Altasia — India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Philippines, etc. — there will be the heady excitement of industrial development. It will be their turn to build highways, their subways, their gleaming forests of apartments and office towers. It will be their turn to buy cars and big-screen TVs, go out to eat, go dancing at clubs, and send their kids to college.
Developing Altasia will be a damn exciting place to be in next three decades."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/china-at-the-peak
16. "Cloud seeding is not new. But when it makes national or international news — like when China used cloud seeding to try to keep rain out of Beijing during the 2008 Olympics — it tends to be greeted with skepticism, or even suspicions of Icarian arrogance.
Around the world, however, a niche group of people like Gary Walker have cloud-seeding contracts with government agencies, farmers, and business owners to increase rainfall or snowfall. Some of these weather-modification contracts have run continuously for decades.
But despite cloud seeders’ remarkable ability to harness the weather — and a need for more precipitation in much of the American West — their industry remains small. They can alleviate water shortages, but not solve them."
https://thehustle.co/the-economics-of-making-it-rain/
17. "But the things we've talked about in terms of companies tackling big markets, focusing on acquiring talent, and attaching themselves to an index of a growing opportunity is part of the game that needs to be played for companies to become really large outcomes. And by nature those are all hard things to do. As a result there will be a divide between the businesses that pull it off and those that don't.
Building a company, whether as an employee or a founder, is already the road less taken. It may not feel that way in your social circles but in the grand scheme of what all 8 billion people on the planet are doing it's still rare. Building a large and successful company is a real challenge. Few have pulled it off."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/revisiting-a-tale-of-two-markets
18. "The question is then, how is legitimacy earned? Whether it is commerce, politics, or culture, elites must demonstrate competence and excellence. The ancient Greeks called this arete.
Arete is granted when the actions of elites are deemed as excellent and praiseworthy.This may mean founding a multibillion-dollar company, successfully leading troops in battle, creating great works of art, or acting as an effective political administrator. Regardless of the area in which arete is demonstrated, the actions performed must bring some sort of benefit to the rest of society.
This doesn’t mean the end of American elites as a class though. Power abhors a vacuum, and a new group of elites will eventually emerge to reestablish order and stability. In their pursuit of arete, these new elites will promote their own unique founding myths that will directly clash with the values and myths of the old guard.It’s a process that will take a decade or more to complete. Arguable, the U.S. is in the opening stages of this process as factions of aspirant elites are coalescing.
The combination of intra-elite competition domestically and the return of great power politics internationally will force a dramatic restructuring of commercial, political, and cultural power within the U.S. How America chooses to handle the coming reckoning of elite legitimacy will likely define its trajectory for the remainder of the 21st Century."
https://www.shatterpointsgeopolitics.com/p/the-coming-reckoning-of-american
19. "A company is more likely to secure its long-term returns if it manages to create a network effect *and* combine it with high-switching costs. Dating apps such as Tinder have a network effect due to their large user numbers, but switching to another app like Bumble is as easy as picking up your phone. On the other hand, a financial exchange that has many users and vertically integrated several other aspects of using its platform will find that most users deem the costs of switching too high. That's the kind of overlapping moats you will want to invest in.
There is also the concept of a moat's width. Because of competition, moats are getting a bit wider or narrower every day. Evidently, the wider a moat, the more difficult it is to penetrate. However, the absolute width of a moat is not generally what investors need to pay attention to. Instead, you are better off checking whether an existing moat is widening at a faster pace than that of its competitors.
There are many reasons for saying that an ability to gradually widening the moat is more important than the width of the moat. Just consider that if a company is known to have a very wide moat, chances are the stock price will already reflect this. You'd want to get in when there is a wide enough moat, but one that is still expanding."
https://www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispatches/moats-a-short-introduction/
20. I think we are still behind here but re-industrialization is a hard trend in NAFTA: US, Canada & Mexico.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNxkpqx1LDw
21. Luke Belmar is a sharp dude. There is a lot of wisdom to be found in this interview.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IV12SDKBTdY
22. This looks damn good!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OAZWXUkrjPc
23. No surprise: Presidio is way nicer than the disaster zone in downtown SF.
24. "It started out as strictly business: a huge private contract for one of the world’s most advanced undersea fiber-optic cables. It became a trophy in a growing proxy war between the United States and China over technologies that could determine who achieves economic and military dominance for decades to come.
In February, American subsea cable company SubCom LLC began laying a $600-million cable to transport data from Asia to Europe, via Africa and the Middle East, at super-fast speeds over 12,000 miles of fiber running along the seafloor.
That cable is known as South East Asia–Middle East–Western Europe 6, or SeaMeWe-6 for short. It will connect a dozen countries as it snakes its way from Singapore to France, crossing three seas and the Indian Ocean on the way. It is slated to be finished in 2025.
It was a project that slipped through China’s fingers.
Undersea cables are central to U.S.-China technology competition.
Across the globe, there are more than 400 cables running along the seafloor, carrying over 95% of all international internet traffic, according to TeleGeography, a Washington-based telecommunications research firm. These data conduits, which transmit everything from emails and banking transactions to military secrets, are vulnerable to sabotage attacks and espionage, a U.S. government official and two security analysts told Reuters.
The potential for undersea cables to be drawn into a conflict between China and self-ruled Taiwan was thrown into sharp relief last month. Two communications cables were cut that connected Taiwan with its Matsu islands, which sit close to the Chinese coast. The islands’ 14,000 residents were disconnected from the internet."
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/us-china-tech-cables/
25. Maybe a bit optimistic here. Either way we need to ramp up production of key military ordinance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXE3dM0ZAB0
26. "Ukraine might be the last large war fought primarily in the physical world. We should be getting ready for the moment when the physical and virtual worlds swap places, where everything happening in the former may well feel tangible and real only from the perspective of those unable to climb to the higher virtual plane. Virtual war is not a war between soldiers, tanks or airplanes, but a clash between algorithms.
Here victory means the ability to build the basic rules determining how the world works. Inferior algorithms will simply operate according to the rules and outcomes set by more foundational software. Geopolitics used to mean the struggle to control the physical world. In the future it will be about the struggle to build a virtual one."
https://time.com/6293398/palantir-future-of-warfare-ukraine/
27. "The 17th Tank Brigade is part of the trap, but the Ukrainian troops aren't taking aim at their Russian foes with tanks, but U.S.-supplied, self-propelled Howitzer M109s. Ukraine has dozens of the American-made artillery pieces, and they've become a vital front-line weapon in the counteroffensive."
28. An excellent framework for building and investing in marketplace businesses.
https://samit-kalra.com/blog/what-makes-a-marketplace-work
29. "Generally speaking, unless you were born into money your life should look something like this:
1) learn and grind making millions of mistakes in your 20s,
2) in your 30s you should be printing cash and have a high time value and
3) in your 40s that part of your life should largely be done and either you’re on an extended adolescence or you decided to have kids [to be clear none of our biz which you choose],
4) then your 50s come where health issues ramp up massively and you definitely don’t “got it anymore”and
5) by your 60s you’re probably in some chill town like Santa Barbara surrounded by other people who made it and simply have no interest in being bothered anymore."
"The dawn of the “Solo PE Agent” is here. If you’re able to build anything by yourself you can now replicate it without even going through the hardest part of the process (audience building).
You just buy the assets that are behind the times. Rip out the margin leak, replace with basic software tools and you’re done. No impact to top-line.
Read that part 10 times if you have to! In the past PE firms would buy companies sacrifice 5% top line declines for say 10-20% profit margin expansion. At small scales it will now be possible to see 0% impact to top-line and 20%+ margin expansion."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/the-coming-decades-and-the-solo-pe
30. "At my fund, we call these things “zero visibility businesses.” We don’t mean this in a pejorative sense. Instead, we mean this in the factual sense. It’s simply impossible to predict the quarterly results and as a result, we’re likely getting a bargain—frequently an unusually good bargain.
So then, how do you put a valuation on something where the numbers are all over the place? Now, this is the real challenge. To be honest, sometimes we simply cannot put a value on such a business. We can look at historical margins, or returns on capital over long periods of time, and try to back into a stabilized level of earnings for the business, but often, this exercise leaves us with a false sense of precision.
Instead, we simply eyeball the thing—does the price seem too cheap for what it is?? I realize that this is highly unscientific, but by the time you get to the spreadsheet and try to model one of these businesses, you’ve already lost the narrative. I’m from the school of investing where it’s either painfully obvious that I’m getting a bargain, or it’s in the “too hard pile.”
In summary, I’m always focused on where the opportunity is. I’m genuinely surprised at the bargains that exist in places where the earnings are hard to predict, and I suspect that this segment of the market will only become more attractive as capital continues to congregate to the few sectors that show linear growth."
https://pracap.com/on-businesses-with-zero-visibility/
31. "Local plumbers and lumber-yard owners across the US are feeling a bit like tech entrepreneurs of late — juggling multiple offers from private equity-backed firms that increasingly are targeting mom-and-pop businesses.
Wall Street has been buying into fragmented Main Street industries for years, with dental and veterinary practices among the favorite targets. It’s known as the roll-up strategy – and it’s catching a tailwind right now, and expanding rapidly in household services and building materials."
32. This was a fun interview with Alyona from FuelFinance. Check it out.
33. Richard Koch's books and thinking changed my life. This interview was no different.
We all have so many toxic beliefs that we need to reprogram if we want a better life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNpABhVKaFI&t=5624s
34. "It seems increasingly clear that the demands of sustaining Ukraine’s defense against Russia will be enduring. We can hope that there will soon be a just and durable end to this conflict, but predicating our strategy on such a hope would be imprudent. Rather, we must assume that Russia will remain a threat to Ukraine and NATO for the foreseeable future. This means America and Europe need to prepare for the long-haul in addressing European security, even as America must urgently shift to prioritizing readying for a conflict with China in the Western Pacific.
More can be done in addition as Europe steps up and takes primary responsibility for its conventional defense. As this happens, the U.S. can provide to Ukraine many of the capabilities it currently keeps in or reserved for the European theater. Such systems include a variety of ground combat systems that are ideal for the European theater and neither necessary nor even useful for a China contingency, such as more advanced types of main battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, and self-propelled cannon artillery.
Furthermore, over time the U.S. can and should resuscitate its defense industrial base to rapidly produce a wide variety of weapons and platforms at a much larger scale. Restoring America’s defense industrial strength will help ameliorate many of the difficult tradeoffs we currently face, enabling us not only to ensure our own forces are better armed but also to arm allies to carry a greater share of the burden of defending themselves."
https://time.com/6294670/us-strategy-ukraine-prioritizing-asia/
Small Wins Eventually Leads to Big Wins
I recall something ecommerce king and Crypto wealthy influencer Luke Belmar said. He was asked “what is the first thing that you recommend a 19 year old boy should do if they want to get rich and get out of the matrix”? His response: “Do push ups. Do 50 push ups every day for 30 days. Have a small win.” The host was mystified and asked: what does this have to do with getting rich? Luke responded, it’s about developing discipline and habits. Developing excellence in one facet of your life will rebound into others. Good health leads to mindhealth. Mindhealth through hard work and creativity leads to wealth. This is pretty esoteric, I know.
But it’s similar to what former Navy SEAL & Admiral McRaven said about the first thing he does when he gets up. He recommends that people should make their bed. It’s a good, strong way to start the day. That’s why morning routines really matter. This is why you do the hard stuff first. I do my meditation, my exercise & work out routine before I do anything else. I change into my “work” clothes to get myself into a new mode.
It’s about accumulating small wins. Winning is what Dave Brailsford called the “Aggregation of marginal gains.” Kaizen in Japanese: lots of small tiny improvements. Do the fundamentals on a regular basis and you will build momentum in your life. Guaranteed. Even better if you can channel this toward a bigger vision and goal in your life.
You can figure out the difference between winners and losers in life by looking at their daily habits. So as an evolving human being, this is critical to figure out as soon as possible. Then you can decide which side of the table you want to be on. I’ve been on both sides and I’ll take the “W’ side any day of the week. So make sure that you build good habits and attack the day as soon as you wake up!
Big Decisions, Big Actions=Big Results, Small Decisions=Small or No Results: Fix Your Life NOW!
This was something I learned from listening to Tony Robbins. I have so many smart friends who sadly don’t meet their potential. I remember chatting with a friend and he had some challenges in life. Really unhappy. Using coping mechanisms like alcohol or marijuana. I asked him: “You know this is a big problem, What are you going to do? It’s really important to sort this out soon.” His response: “I’m ‘planning’ on it.”
Sadly, that is a sign that he will do nothing. It’s easy to plan. It’s hard to take action and do the work. It’s pretty common, in life, career, startups.
People get stuck. Better the devil you know than the one you don’t. Yet searching for certainty is dangerous in our present world. There is NO certainty these days in anything except that everything is changing. Even worse this seems like learned helplessness, that there is nothing you can do about the situation you are in. That you are trapped. But realize nothing is permanent, for both good and bad. So you can change things. Just depends on how badly you want it.
I know it’s hard. I’ve been there myself. But you have to take action even if you are not ready. Or the real world intrudes and you will have to do it eventually. After a lot of pain I might add.
Get a coach. Be around other people you admire or ahead of you. Get to the center of the activity and network. Environment and Proximity matters.
Then you will have Immediacy. Do it NOW. Have a sense of urgency. You only really have control at this moment.
So the lesson is if you want to accomplish nothing this year? Say “I’ll do it tomorrow.”
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads July 16th, 2023
“If you get tired, learn to rest, not to quit.” — Bansky
"Unmanned platforms simply provide a better way to execute the age-old functions of warfighting -- from intelligence to command and control to fires – with the latter including the ability to strike in the electromagnetic and cyber domains. This better way is so much better that it renders all other methods obsolescent – and many western nations will be envying the Ukrainians the flexibility of their procurement system as they watch their own defense budgets channel absurd amounts of money into platforms that are obsolete at proto-type.
What we are seeing in Ukraine is just the latest chapter in the evolution of unmanned platforms. Since the first drone attacks on western soldiers occurred in Iraq and Syria in 2015, there have been signs aplenty that drones are changing the face of war."
https://amilburn.substack.com/p/a-new-level-of-war
2. "But why the rise of part-time creators?
Because they're waking up to the realities of 2023.
Regular folks are putting in a few hours each week to share insights on platforms like Twitter and LinkedIn. And by selling advertisements, digital assets, services or affiliate marketing, many are raking in anywhere from $20k to $200k annually.
And, let's not be mistaken, this trend is not exclusive to those newly unemployed.
Even those currently employed at big tech companies are dabbling with part-time content creation.
The once invincible fortress of “job stability” at the likes of Amazon or Google are a mirage. In an economy as unpredictable as a rollercoaster ride, relying solely on the security of a 9 to 5 job is a gamble that fewer are willing to take. So, they’re dabbling."
https://latecheckout.substack.com/p/the-year-of-the-part-time-creator
3. An Interview with a master at his craft. Arguably one of the top influencers in the world and a brilliant businessman: Mr Beast.
Pure dedication and commitment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9IQ_ldV9z_A
4. "How can we make sanctions more effective - well more sanctions, better targeting, use of secondary sanctions to discourage third parties from trying to help Russia circumvent sanctions.
And I think we also need to look at new innovative ideas. Therein Nigel Gould Davis at IISS has proposed an innovative idea that we go to a maximum sanctions regime - plan to ban all trade with Russia by a certain date, and then work backwards in terms of providing licensing. To get around the exploitation of dual use products to help rebuild the Russian military international business should be made to apply to trade particular products with Russia."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/russia-are-western-sanctions-working
5. "During boom times, investors compete to win deals in many ways. Some give on terms, some on price, and some on governance. I think the record will show that many investors gave on multiple dimensions during a period when founders had lots of leverage and choice.
We are returning to a period where I think the balance will reset, and we will land where I hope most companies have greater oversight and we can put more trust in the reported data and KPIs."
https://chudson.substack.com/p/all-venture-booms-end-with-a-return
6. "Said differently, history shows that the painful seismic shifts part of the Big Cycle comes about when there is simultaneously
1) too much debt creation that leads to debt bubbles bursting and economic contractions which cause central banks to print a lot of money and buy debt,
2) big conflicts within countries due to big wealth and values conflicts made worse by the bad economic conditions, and
3) big international conflicts due to rising world powers challenging the existing world powers at a time of economic and internal political crises.
In doing this study, I also saw two other big forces that had big effects. They are:
-Acts of nature (droughts, floods, pandemics) including climate change.
-Learning leading to inventions of technologies that typically produced evolutionary advances in productivity and living standards —e.g., the First and Second Industrial Revolution, and computing/AI revolution."
https://time.com/6286449/ray-dalio-world-great-disorder/
7. "Autocrats suffer from their anti-truth diet when they begin to believe their own lies. When truth is not valued, flattery and conformity prevail. Putin’s generals told him what he wanted to hear, and he grossly miscalculated the cost/benefit of invading Ukraine. This happens in democracies, too, when truth is sidelined.
George W. Bush developed a faith in alternative facts that defined his presidency. His historic blunder in Iraq was based on “intelligence” which should have been badged “belief dressed up as fact.” Common to both regimes was/is the exiling of dissent. Truth can admit doubt, but authority cannot survive it."
https://www.profgalloway.com/truth/
8. Very interesting take on how the world is organized and why society does what it does. Worth a read as it does explain a lot.
"Let’s imagine a group of people (let’s call them the elites) that acquired a lot of liquid money, control of land, and power – and to be realistic, let’s say the money and land are under investment firms they control, and their power comes from their influence and ownership over the media, politicians, contractors, etc.
The elite do not want competition. They know no one stays at the top forever, and they want to maximize their time there.
They want other people (the masses) to not do well in their pursuit of money, land, and power."
https://lifemathmoney.com/want-to-understand-whats-going-on-in-the-world-read-this/
9. This was a great discussion this week. Said it before: they are at their best when they are discussing policy in America and what's happening in VC investing and startup land.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3-hTgRO093Q
10. This is a must read for those interested in tech and macro global. Its ugly out there for many so-called Unicorns (aka Zombie-corns) and its backed by data. But there is a way forward for founders.
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23864037-final-emw-2023-macro-keynote-062823
11. Good investing themes and thesis here: Aging, Climate & Sustainability, Education, Consumer, and AI-Enabled.
"Does the entrepreneurial nature of building a venture firm get me fired up? Of course. Does working closely with founders through good and bad times feel meaningful? Yes. But the thrill of discovery, of unearthing a company that I think could be the next big thing, is incomparable."
https://nbt.substack.com/p/investment-themes-mid2023
12. "During the early internet era of the mid-90s – and crypto in the early 2010s – very few people showed up in the first few years, but almost all of them made money.
AI seems like the inverse. After the ChatGPT launch, everyone has shown up to participate in the AI game: researchers, developers, VCs, startups. But unlike former technological shifts, it is possible that very few new players stand to win in the deployment era of LLMs. Unlike crypto, the value prop of LLMs is immediately obvious, driving rapid demand; unlike the internet, LLM products leverage cheap ubiquitous computing to deploy quickly. The few AI players in pole position are winning at lightning speed.
Because the AI revolution is so unevenly distributed, there are very few people defining the frontier – this unfortunately means that the rest of the technology industry is some combination of uninformed and biased. Most talkers are playing catch-up, hallucinating a self-serving worldview that’s a mix of despondence (mope), denial (cope), and salesmanship (hope)."
https://luttig.substack.com/p/hallucinations-in-ai
13. "In the meantime, though, we Americans to the south need to take a hard look at what Canada is doing, and ask ourselves why we can’t do something similar. Like Canada, the U.S. is a highly diverse nation of immigrants. Like Canada, our fertility is below replacement (though not quite as bad), and we rely on immigration for population growth. Like Canada, we face the inherent economic disadvantage of being located far from the world population supercluster in Asia, and thus we will always be fighting an uphill battle to get high-value industries to want to locate here.
So like Canada, we should be importing huge numbers of skilled immigrants — especially because our software and finance and biotech industry clusters, and our world-beating research universities, make it easier for us to attract skilled immigrants in the first place. We should be playing to our strengths.
And yet in the U.S., immigration of any kind is now at the center of a vicious culture war.
I wish Americans could tell themselves a positive narrative like Canada’s — of immigration as the way to build a multicultural nation. Many of us have tried to tell that narrative, and have foundered on the rocks of America’s age of division.
As John Higham wrote, when America is underconfident — when we start to doubt who we are as a people and a nation — we instinctively think about closing the door. Right now, America definitely doesn’t know who we are, as a people and as a nation. Maybe next decade we’ll remember."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/maximum-canada-is-happening
14. Codie is the best. If you want financial independence, this is a good place to start.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XkxZCJ2pYqs&t=110s
15. Why Defensetech really matters.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79yCw8AGbCE&t=3s
16. Article is old but Dubai is more relevant than ever. Its not my favorite place personally but recognize the draw it has for people and its an important Freeport city.
"Overall, this leaner role of government makes for a much better deal for anyone who is productive and creates significant amounts of wealth. This is one of the reasons why jurisdictions like Dubai attract an unusually high number of entrepreneurs, rather than those seeking to live off welfare. Right now, entrepreneurs and other wealth-creators are flocking to Dubai in numbers not seen in years.
Dubai originally became famous as a place for beach holidays, shopping bargains, and good airline connections. It's now much more than that. Increasingly, it's an economic hub not just for the Middle East but for companies from all over the world, even including Australia.
It's among the world's greatest and most important cities in finance, media, and other important sectors. I am saying this even though I've never been Dubai's biggest fan. Given recent developments, even I need to acknowledge that Dubai is about to reach the next level."
https://www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispatches/the-great-escape-part-2-investing-in-dubai/
17. This is not good.
But it's what happens when people stop believing in the American Dream.
Especially as they see all the grifting & incompetence of our Washington political elites added to the stupid woke-ism and self serving military leadership + the Forever wars.
18. "There is a broader political dimension to all this. Western countries have supplied weapons to Ukraine on the understanding that they will make significant gains against the enemy. For the first time, Ukrainian comms have let Kyiv down. Many in London and Brussels and Washington appear to believe that the counter-offensive means thousands of Ukrainians charging the Russian lines and breaking through — but here on the front, it just doesn’t work like that.
“The counteroffensive is military dancing,” Bereza concludes. “We move our troops from point to point to make them think we will break through in that exact place. And when they move, we destroy them, draining their reserves. It could last for months without a breakthrough. It’s not a miracle.”
https://unherd.com/2023/07/dodging-shells-on-ukraines-eastern-front/
19. "Don’t look now, but the era of the “streaming wars” might have come to a quiet end. In a rather anticlimactic fashion, there’s no clear winner; the wars have simply become too costly for all parties involved to carry on.
All in all, it is evident that Hollywood is entering what Disney CEO Bob Iger recently dubbed “an age of great anxiety,” as the industry actively confronts the new reality and scrambles to find viable solutions. The previous focus on growing subscriber bases for streaming services has been deprioritized to make room for new tactics aimed at improving ARPU. But can Hollywood simply hit the brakes on its decade-long shift towards streaming and remake the TV bundle online again?"
20. Business lessons in focus. This is a fun conversation on pursuing your craft.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXKJJlG7cus
21. I LOVED this book.
A talk behind the true life international investor John Kleinheinz behind the fictional, yet based on true story, book "The Siberian Job."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1utEaoyev-8
22. "Look for customer value financing to become more popular and common in all recurring revenue businesses. It’s a huge win for entrepreneurs and much needed in the market."
https://davidcummings.org/2023/07/01/customer-value-financing-example/
23. "It is too easy for modern man to get sucked into a mindless trap of mediocrity, degeneracy, and roboticism.
When people break away from the default path, they get scared of the unknown.
There is too much information to explore.
Too many opportunities cause overwhelm.
Too many opinions lead to anxiety.
To find clarity, you have to battle through the chaos.
You can’t just shy away at the first site of struggle.
For every good thought, there are 100 bad.
Your version of success is empowering, but in comes the thought of failure, how long it will take, which skills to learn, and different career and business paths to get there.
Then, those bad thoughts can splinter into 100 more.
That is unless you learn how to order your mind.
To create clarity from chaos."
https://thedankoe.com/letters/focus-is-a-superpower-how-to-succeed-in-the-information-age/
24. Always thought provoking. A rational perspective. He has been right more times than wrong.
The USA is not a hyper power anymore. Blue American elites have rekt America through their incompetence, grift & ideological stupidity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ADISDec7adU&t=3626s
25. "Arguably not since the Fauci mania of the early pandemic has a scientist become as famous, as quickly, as Huberman. The 47-year-old Stanford University neuroscientist hosts the Huberman Lab podcast, which consistently ranks among the top 10 podcasts on Spotify and Apple and has more than 3.5 million subscribers on YouTube. Since the show’s first episode in January 2021, Huberman has branched out into ticketed live shows, launched paid premium content for subscribers (with much of the net proceeds donated to scientific research projects), and signed a two-book contract with Simon & Schuster, the first of which is set to come out in 2024.
Fans recognize him on the street, which isn’t entirely surprising considering that, in an effort to make his wardrobe simple and spill-proof, he almost always wears the same thing: a black button-down, black jeans, and black Adidas sneakers.
These practices make Huberman Lab appealing to the same audience that might listen to the popular podcasts hosted by productivity guru Tim Ferriss or longevity expert Dr. Peter Attia. (They’ve both appeared on Huberman’s show, and he on theirs.) Their content broadly falls under the umbrella of “biohacking,” or trying to improve physical and cognitive function through targeted lifestyle tweaks, from intermittent fasting to ice baths. Biohacking is a bona fide hobby for a certain kind of person—stereotypically, someone wealthy, male, and ambitious, though Huberman says his audience is split equally between men and women—and it’s become big business in the world of podcasting.
Huberman hates the word “biohacking,” because he thinks it implies people are taking shortcuts when they’re just harnessing science."
https://time.com/6290594/andrew-hubman-lab-podcast-interview/
26. I'm fascinated by Bryan Johnson's Blueprint plan. He is a pretty interesting person. Entrepreneur, investor and extreme biohacker.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZ-QKrGg8yA
27. "In the past, when Putin faced setbacks in Ukraine, he lashed out: declaring illegal annexations of Ukraine after Kyiv’s successful Kharkiv offensive; threatening nukes; unleashing relentless missile strikes on Ukraine’s population. Putin may attempt an escalation to show the public, and the world, that he is in control of his country, and his war.
Prigozhin’s mutiny tested the premise that Putin, and Russia, could outlast Ukraine, along with Western support and attention. An indefinite war, with an indefinite end, may have more political costs than Putin anticipated."
https://www.vox.com/2023/7/1/23779941/wagner-group-revolt-ukraine-counteroffensive-putin-war
28. I might have to visit Lublin soon when I am in Poland soon.
"Lublin is a beautiful city where renaissance mansions sit next to gothic castles, brutalist shopping malls, techno clubs and cool cafes; a fun and fascinating place to experience Poland’s rich and innovative past, present and future."
29. "So what the counteroffensive that the Ukrainians launched (or more appropriately started a new phase in) is doing is revealing the state of the war and the balance between the two armies. It’s not determining the outcome of the war, its revealing exactly where we are now.
Basically three quarters of the US population supports continuing military aid for Ukraine. This is in some aspects higher than support last year at this time (there was a dip in support for Ukraine amongst the US population last May). This strong support reveals a few things about how the US population is approaching the subject. Americans are generally of the view that Ukraine can ‘win’ the war.
I dont mean to say that the US population has a highly developed idea of what a Ukrainian victory would be—but they do believe that the war is going in Ukraine’s favor and whatever happens Ukraine can end the conflict in good shape. The great worry for Ukraine was not that the US population would get bored of the war—this was always a silly argument, the US does not get bored of war. The great worry for Ukraine was that the US population would decide Ukraine could not win—and this would mean they would not support aid.
Now that the US population has seen that Ukraine can fight well, and indeed has shown greater smarts and effectiveness than the Russian military over the last year, it has adjusted to the new reality. The great regret, however, is that it had to take a year of horrible war to get here."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-35
30. "Why do I embrace added challenges and costs instead of resisting them?
Here is my answer:
Chaos and challenge give us purpose. Purpose gives us pride. Pride feels good.
People like to feel good.
A cognitive behavioural therapist would say this fills our human need for significance.
All humans have this need. And recognizing that we have it is important - because either we choose our purpose, or a purpose will choose us.
Let me explain.
Building a business or raising a family is a long-term application of purpose. If done correctly, the result is a lifetime of fulfillment and significance.
It requires focus and determination. It is a journey that will inevitably present hardship and failure, with the opportunity to persevere and fight for success over many years."
https://jaymartin.substack.com/p/this-is-how-you-outlast-your-monsters
31. This is an optimistic view of the future and a call to action for all of us investors and entrepreneurs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=biLNOTqMT_U
32. Some pretty good examples of leadership and smart tactics for improving your life & business.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpmVb1rvnBA
33. Don't build a biz, buy one. This is a great step by step on how to buy a small business and start building your empire.
Relentless, Constant Pressure: Don’t Stop Until it’s Over
We all watch action movies and as usual near the end, after a big long fight, the bad guy seems to be down. The good guys start to relax and celebrate. But then the bad guy comes out of nowhere to cause trouble again. That is why in real life, you put a bullet in their head to make sure they are down for the count. It’s called a “Dead Check.” This sounds grim but it’s reality. This is how stuff gets done. As Robert Greene wrote “Crush Your Enemies Totally”.
You do not stop fundraising until the money hits the bank. You do not stop fighting until your opponent is down. You keep going until you are done. You go all out and don’t half ass it. The sale is not closed until they sign the contract and pay the money!!
I see too many founders celebrate at the one yard line and then they mess up. It’s like you spent all this time pushing a rock up the hill, but then you stop short of the top where the momentum starts to go your way. You try to take the shortcut or easier path, when all it took was just a little further push to get you to the top. As George Orwell said “The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it.” It is so very easy to lose momentum in business and life.
You cannot afford to be complacent. Complacency kills. In this highly competitive world full of ruthless executors, You can’t relax or celebrate until it’s absolutely clear you have completely won. Or scored the touchdown as per football parlance. You have to keep pushing till the bitter end.
This is also quite relevant for life too. How many times have you heard about the recently retired just passing away suddenly after working for decades. It’s because they no longer have a mission. No purpose, no life. So assuming you enjoy the game you are in, just keep pushing and keep going! If you want to rest, rest after the finish line and not before!
School is Uncool: The Good & Bad of a Formal Education
As a parent, it’s been interesting watching my kid go through different types of schools. American public school, private American school in Taiwan, home schooling and now back to public school. Obviously, there are lots of advantages and disadvantages to all of these.
I remember when my daughter Amber and her classmates were in kindergarten, they were so raw, excited and energetic. They saw joy in almost everything and anything. They said what they thought and felt. Maybe most importantly they had crazy imagination and creativity and everything was possible in their minds.
But this changes as they get older. They get socialized, they get peer pressured to fit in either by their social circle and by the teachers (and parents) telling them NO. Maybe this is part of the growing up process which accelerates through high school, then university and then the workplace.
The sad thing is all the “possibilities" disappear in their mind and they become like everyone else. They lose the courage to say what they truly think for fear of sticking out and not fitting in or being laughed at. Being socially ostracized and being a social outcast is so hard wired into all of us, that it is easier to keep quiet so you can fit in.
I think this definitely happened to me. And I was only able to escape by literally leaving my home country of Canada, traveling and meeting new people and social circles to figure out who I really am. And the irony is in the business world and in the world at large, it’s important to be authentic, to stand out and think for yourself.
All the most successful people in the world do this. Orthogonal thinking, an overused word in Silicon Valley, which is defined as “thinking that draws from a variety of, and perhaps seemingly unrelated, perspectives to achieve new insights.” (Source: https://interactioninstitute.org/orthogonal-thinking-and-doing)
Is it a surprise that some of the best programmers, entrepreneurs and investors are somewhat autistic or somewhere on the spectrum? An autistic person does not understand social cues and finds it hard to understand how others feel or think. No surprise they are able to think for themselves and do original things. Things that allow them to stand out and win.
I value education, I encourage kids to go to school. But let’s not kid ourselves, school is indoctrination. David Sack’s calls our Universities “Woke Madrassas.” I’m far from his political stance but I understand his perspective. And for those who don’t know what madrassa is, it’s a Islamic religious school known for preaching an especially austere form of Islam. The parallel to the modern school system is clear. This is why the first thing a foreign power or conqueror does after taking over a place: take direct control of the media and schools.
This is also why as a parent and concerned relative, it’s important to balance our kid’s formal education with an informal one. Help them fall in love with learning and realize that education happens both in school and outside of it. Help them travel if you can afford, reading as many different books as possible, encouraging them to explore other interests, and giving them alternative views from the mainstream one being propagated by the media and education system.
This way they might have a chance to learn how to think for themselves and stand out from all the cookie-cutter sheeple around them.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads July 9th, 2023
“It’s precisely those who are busiest who most need to give themselves a break.” — Pico Iyer
"We are seeing the initial stages for the groundwork of a cross-border CBDC rails, the one that the IMF is so eagerly working on.
With the increased adoption of digital payment systems, and the reluctancy to print higher denomination bills, it will be easier to force Argentines on a CBDC once Argentina defaults.
And believe me, that will be sooner than later. The leverage there is completely on the side of the IMF, no matter how many currency swaps Argentina decides to accept from China.
So unless Argentina decides to default on the IMF loan completely and exit capital markets (like the country has done in the past), this is the more likely scenario from this Mara’s point of view:
-Default (technically Argentina is already defaulting on IMF interest payments this month);
-Debt restructuring at 50 cents on the dollar (this is the bond play covered in my previous article) - this will likely happen under the new government;
-Austerity measures + increased fiscal control over the economy - CBDC introduction and plan to eliminate cash in x years.
Now even if this is forced upon the population, I have no doubt about the ingenuity of the people to come up with circular economies.
Some absolute currency mayhem that ensued during the 2001 crisis is a good example of that, together with the omnipresent black market for US token swapping that is currently active in the country."
https://bowtiedmara.substack.com/p/individual-sovereignty-cashless-societies
2. "Today, Venture funding has become even more scarce and appears as scarce as it was during the “Dot Com Bust”. By our estimates, we are about 1/3 of the way into the fundraising desert, where maximum restructuring will be prevalent in global VC ecosystems over the next 12-18 months."
https://tribecap.co/crossing-the-desert/
3. Fascinating watching the Football (aka Soccer) leagues now from business perspective. The power is in the hands of the top players who are cutting some interesting biz deals that we can all learn from.
"If the Saudi push is to come up short, it won’t be because of any moralizing. The European clubs will be hoping many decades of sporting heritage will protect their product, though the Londoners of West Ham celebrated their victory in a two-year-old tournament a few weeks back like it was the World Cup. And why not? You’ve got to take your thrills as they come, and fans will accept anybody who supplies them.
Whether it’s an American billionaire or an oil-state emir or a president the fans elect, there’s little sign it matters to folks so long as it means a few more great days out with family and friends. Besides, they rarely get much of a choice. Messi did, and he got the best deal of all because he recognized an opportunity to go from employee to partner—to become an owner himself. More American—and even European—teams might have to offer that kind of deal to survive the Saudi flood of cash."
4. "And there are also several large VC portfolios up for sale: SVB Capital, FTX Ventures, and now Tiger Global are all in the process of unloading a number of investments in VC funds and companies. That’s a hell of a lot of inventory for the market to absorb in such a short time, and sellers who want short-term liquidity will be at a significant disadvantage.
Many companies (and funds) are going to be available at much lower prices than at any time in the past decade. Already several companies on secondary marketplaces like Forge and Equityzen are priced at significant discounts to their last round valuations, with far more sellers than buyers.
For investors and acquirers with ready capital available, Silicon Valley is about to witness its biggest half-off sale in over a decade. Smart buyers should do their homework and be prepared to grab a bunch of tech startup bargains."
https://davemcclure.substack.com/p/repricing-exuberance-part-i
5. I think this discussion is pretty important.
I clearly disagree with Sack's view on Ukraine counteroffensive so far, it's too early & he has his own narrative bias (like all of us I might add). But most of this episode is good.
Key lesson: do your homework, find different sources/views and think for yourself ie. don't trust what you read or hear especially the establishment anywhere
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJQmCFTYCh8
6. What an unexpected turn of events to say the least.
"This coup is being led by the boss of the Wagner mercenaries, Yevgeny Prigozhin. At first the smart money was on his failure because the full weight of the Russian state is against him.
Before he made his moves, he was declared a traitor, his offices were raided, and his bases shelled. But the Russian state is inept and decrepit. If the aim was to catch Prigozhin unawares and shut him up it failed, because he appears to have had some notice of what was being prepared for him and so took his own initiatives. If you are going to move against your opponents you need to be decisive. Prigozhin got away.
Even if Wagner is defeated quickly, which I would not take for granted, then this is still a big shock to the regime and it will have been weakened. If the confrontation goes in the other direction then all bets are off and panic may start to grip the Kremlin. The problem for autocrats like Putin is that they don’t really know what is going on among their people, and that tends to add to the panic."
https://samf.substack.com/p/prigozhins-mutiny
7. "It’s far too early to tell what’s really going on. All eyes are on Russia now. But rather than thinking of this as a simple internal argument, it may be useful to think of this as a way the superpowers solve the larger problems Putin was creating for everybody well outside of Ukraine. Ukraine will be a beneficiary of all this, no doubt, but the invisible war beyond Ukraine may now subside too.
As I finish writing this, I see a great line in a news story. It reads, “Prigozhin said that his call to action against the Russian military was not a mutiny but a “march for justice.” It seems a long way from his previous “we will destroy everything” remarks. That should hold up well in the FSB court process that is already charging him for “calling for an armed mutiny.” The key question remains, where is Mr Putin? It could be that Gerasimov loses this fight. Stories are circulating that the military refused his orders to attack Wagner by air. But, if he wins, I am betting on a serious peace dividend and a Russia that is brought back into the family of nations at least until Gerasimov gets comfortable.
Don’t forget that the Gerasimov Doctrine holds that anything goes. He is not to be underestimated. If Putin emerges still standing, we’ll have a problem Houston. Prigozhin is in trouble either way. China will figure out how to align with the winner, whoever that is. There’s going to be a run on popcorn, that’s for sure."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/coup-detat-putin-prigozhin-gerasimov
8. "Now’s a great time to assess every functional area of the business and spend internal cycles leveling up people, processes, and technology. Cruft builds over time and needs to be revisited on a regular basis. Now is an exceptionally good time to upgrade functional areas."
https://davidcummings.org/2023/06/24/time-to-upgrade-the-startups-functional-areas/
9. "Venture capital is one of those dependencies. If you pick up one end of the stick (raising venture) you automatically HAVE to pick up the other end of the stick (needing a large outcome for anyone to make money.)
The music stopped when the market corrected. Whether it’s smaller, commoditized companies that can’t persist and need to get acquired, or it’s fake hyped-up consumer companies. Some of those outcomes hurt way more than my temporary face slam in the suped-up game of musical chairs."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/the-scramble-landscape
10. "There are a few figures in the tech world who staunchly insist that Russia is winning the war. But after the events of the past couple of days, how reasonable is it to keep believing that? As international relations scholar Paul Poast points out, you don’t tend to see infighting behind the lines in countries that are winning wars.
(Also, note the double standard here; the same people declaring Russia is “winning” in Ukraine tend to say America “lost” in Iraq despite pacifying the entire country with only a small fraction of the casualties Russia has sustained so far. Such is the power of motivated reasoning.)
Russia’s poor performance in this war has starkly illustrated the weakness of the right-wing romantic notion that traditional masculinity and the trappings of traditional religiosity will lead a society to triumph over decadent, effeminate democracies. Despite its manly recruitment ads and its military culture of machismo, aggression, and sexual violence, and despite its professed support for the Orthodox Christian church, Russia has repeatedly shown battlefield incompetence. Were it to face an actual NATO country in battle, Russia would be in even greater trouble.
Liberalism doesn’t act tough, but it is tough when it needs to be."
“Right now, China spends less on its military than the U.S. does. In wartime, though, it will ramp up defense production by enormous orders of magnitude, just as it has ramped up production of cars, of trains, of solar power, etc. China will do exactly what the U.S. did in WW2, and unless we make big big changes, it will overwhelm us exactly the way we overwhelmed Germany and Japan.
Ultimately it is China, not Russia, that presents the real challenge to America and our allies. Russia is a chaotic, militaristic, economically incompetent, declining medium-sized country that just happens to have a lot of old Soviet equipment. China is the world’s factory, ten times Russia’s size, at the peak of its power, national unity, and state capacity.
If the U.S. is going to meet that challenge, we’re going to have to do better than a robust economy and a strong currency. We’re going to have to remember how to build things again. So ignore the doomers and declinists on Twitter, but don’t ignore this."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/hey-tech-folks-the-west-is-not-failing
11. "Earlier in life, my eyes were fixed on finding new summits. Peaks offered peak experiences with rare and wonderful views. Yet with age and wisdom, I learned that life couldn't be sustained in the uninhabitable lands of hard-to-reach peaks. The peaks defined my past, but they wouldn't define my future.
I also learned to admire the river and to seek its guidance. By surrendering to its flow, I could find my way toward a more peaceful and hospitable place where life flourishes. And from that lower valley flush with abundance, I could look back and admire the peak from a distance, thanking it for the rare experience it offered me, yet vowing to never return to the place that nearly drained me to the point of non-existence.
Peaks are for the young, unwise, and hungry. Rivers are for the mature, wise, and absolved. Both can be navigated so long as you learn to surrender to their unbeatable resistance. One offers momentary peaks. The other offers lasting calm and solace. Together, they make up the landscape of a life."
12. "Putin’s Position - this was a direct and open attempt to undermine Putin and he blinked. He avoided a military confrontation knowing full well that he could have lost it. Any dictator worth this salt, including the ruthless Vlad himself, would have ended this in the bloodiest way possible and purged anyone who could even remotely be associated with the mutineers. A page from Stalin’s handbook would have sufficed. But he couldn’t this time and he had to let his rival off the hook. Bad mistake.
Of course you could argue Prigozhin blinked too and maybe he caved under pressure, but appearances matter and it was the Russian president who looks to be the weaker one here. So, not only has Putin delivered his nation a disastrous war, he has now also signalled that he lacks the resolve to decisively crush domestic pushback. The next group to use the war to rearrange power in the Kremlin can get to work, their target has far less political and military clout now."
https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/what-happened-in-russia-just-now
13. “Don’t take your eye off Ukraine,” Polymeropoulos advises. “I mean, this is a massive opportunity for the Ukrainians…In Russian military units, morale is gonna be in the toilet… They're gonna be focused on what's happening back home” instead of what’s in front of them, he thinks.
As for Washington, “there's nothing really we can do other than Ukraine,” Polymeropoulos added. “Now's the time to help the Ukrainians kill more Russians. You gotta have the Ukrainian boot on Russia's neck and fucking press it down.”
Where Putin’s boot lands—that’s the next plot twist in this very unpredictable story."
https://www.spytalk.co/p/russia-coup-pop-goes-the-weasel
14. "Mediocre man is one who learns to trust the journey because he is fully aware that one cannot quite know what will result from any specific effort. Society tells him he is lazy and that he is a fool and that he should have goals, big goals! But he has stumbled upon a secret: mediocre effort beats extreme effort for most people, most of the time."
This is the secret of mediocre man: liking what you do. For years, I have had a mantra, write most days. I probably write four or five days a week on average but sometimes zero days per week. To the person living in the world of grind, this would be terrifying. How do you measure, track, and keep yourself accountable? Don’t you have goals? But my method has worked. How? By liking what you do, you will inevitably form a positive relationship with your work and want to do more of it. Then the only challenge is creating space in your life to let it happen."
https://boundless.substack.com/p/the-way-of-mediocre-man-228
15. Don't agree with their political views but do like their life values in general. These are good role models for young men.
Great case for Dubai as a major center for business as well. Marbella sounds interesting too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nwmJhDpwHSE
16. "First, I think events this weekend have just underscored how bad the war in Ukraine is going for Russia.
It's been a disaster on all counts: military, human, economic, diplomatic/prestige and political.
As I have long argued, Russia has no path to victory in Ukraine, the longer it goes on the worse it gets for Russia. Indeed, the longer it goes on, with all the negative consequences, the more the risk of backdraft to Russia itself and risks of political upheaval at home in Russia. This is what we saw this weekend.
Second, Putin might have survived - just about. But he is now fatally weakened. His credibility is at a low point."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/putin-is-vulnerable
17. "Prigozhin stopped at the Rubicon and then slithered away—Julius Caesar as rendered by Monty Python. No telling where this is going now.
Whatever, Russia’s disarray is Ukraine’s gain. I’d be surprised if Western intelligence agencies aren’t already reaping an espionage windfall from the chaos, with Kremlin rats pelting Western spies with offers of secrets in exchange for safe passage out of the madness. It’s no time for either side to be timid."
https://www.spytalk.co/p/a-spy-windfall-looms-from-russian
18. "People feel like if they go to broad, rather than niche, they will dilute themselves to the point of not making any money.
I called bullshit on this early.
Every single big YouTuber, podcaster, or other pseudo-celebrity is broad. Go look at Iman Ghadzi or Hamza.
They focus on beginner-level education on top-of-funnel social media.
They focus on intermediate to advanced in their low-ticket to high-ticket products and services.
They are somewhat holistic in the things they talk about. They understand that business or self-improvement demands that health and lifestyle be talked about.
They are far ahead of the curve because they understand human nature.
Think of it like this:
Most brands are a building within a community in the world of social media.
I want my brand to be a community in the world of social media. My newsletters, lead magnets, and products are the buildings, or digital real estate.
But, you clearly have to establish a building first, then expand."
https://thedankoe.com/letters/niche-down-is-terrible-advice-for-smart-people/
19. Good rundown of Dalio's Changing Global World Order in cartoon form. It’s really good for those who want to understand geopolitics and cycles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8
20. Soft landing in the USA? Good case for it here for all fellow global macro investors.
https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1673223002966708225
21. Very well thought thru thread on the present US dollar dominated monetary system.
https://twitter.com/peruvian_bull/status/1673418225672163329
22. I learned this later in my career.
"Main Issues: The main problems with a W-2:
1) you do not work for yourself, you are being watched by layers of management causing limited autonomy,
2) you *don’t* get paid what you are worth since everyone above you needs to generate a profit. The Company goes out of business if they hire a bunch of unprofitable employees and
3) if you ever get moved into a non-revenue generating part of the firm you’re crushed in terms of upward mobility. Income barely keeps up with inflation in a huge number of industries.
Now before moving on, remember that a W-2 is not safer. You can be cut at any time. Taking zero risk just ensures you live a boring life of coffee, avoiding HR and laughing at awful jokes that are not funny made by upper management."
"Anyone smart knows that distribution is a billion times harder than making the perfect product.
The perfect product doesn’t sell anything if no one hears about it. It would be similar to having a $10M diamond buried 100 feet below your house. Just because it exists doesn’t mean it has value. You have to find it to monetize value.
Benefits of Online Income: 1) you work alone for the most part, 2) you have limited operating expenses - limited overhead, 3) you can move the income anywhere and 4) no face to face human interaction - alright that last one is just a benefit for anti-social autists like us.
Main Issues: 1) it requires actual work. If you are in a non-revenue generating role like investment banking analyst/associate this will be a massive wake up call. No sales = no money. Period, 2) you see no results at the beginning - some rockstars pop in the first year but generally speaking when you get to year 3 you have line of sight to winning."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/when-5000-isnt-the-same-as-5000-and
23. This is an important discussion on Defense-tech and one of the most important founders and companies around: Palmer and Anduril.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6kxxtoxeGc
24. Always learning new things in our business.
This was a good interview re: the state of venture capital at the moment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZVeRQkxCdc
25. Sober assessment of the Ukrainian counter offensive so far. Still early days is the point.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pt3sQ_CN69s
26. SO many nuggets of wisdom here on self improvement.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6XGoSsFxJg
27. "In his analysis, the combination of India’s deep-rooted caste system that was an enemy of meritocracy, its massive bureaucracy, and its elites’ unwillingness to address the competing claims of its multiple ethnic and religious groups led him to conclude that it would never be more than “the country of the future”—with that future never arriving. Thus, when I asked him a decade ago specifically whether India could become the next China, he answered directly: “Do not talk about India and China in the same breath.”
Since Lee offered this judgment, India has embarked on an ambitious infrastructure and development agenda under a new leader and demonstrated that it can achieve considerable economic growth. Yet while we can remain hopeful that this time could be different, I, for one, suspect Lee wouldn’t bet on it."
28. A balanced view & assessment of Ukraine's counter offensive from a former US soldier.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vWhgcOYsMLw
29. "The basic argument that the FTC is making is that Microsoft is buying Activision so it can take popular games, most notably Call of Duty, away from its rivals. In doing so, it will be able to monopolize a series of gaming markets by forcing users to play on Microsoft platforms. Most gamers think this means that Microsoft wants to privilege its own Xbox consoe over Sony’s Playstation, and make it so that you have to buy an Xbox to play Xbox-exclusive games.
This move, to deny a key input to a rival, is known as foreclosure. And it’s part of the claim from the FTC. But this case isn’t just about Sony and console markets, it’s about the future, and in particular what video gaming will look like in a few years, when the technology for gaming is radically different. To understand that requires looking at a different industry that went through a similar transition: Hollywood.
The transition to streaming is not a technology story, it’s a political and legal one. Everyone knew movies and TV would be delivered over the internet, the question was always what the market structure would look like. Streaming is just another way to distribute content, similar to TV networks and movie theaters.
Traditionally the distributors in Hollywood have been powerful, but stayed mostly out of the content game, buying their content from content makers. With streaming, would Hollywood remain an industry with lots of independent producers who sold to distributors? Or would the distributors demand to own everything themselves?
The answer, as it turns out, was the latter. Hollywood vertically integrated, with streamers both making and distributing their own content. For a time it looks competitive, because there are a multiple streamers, but it’s a group of giants fighting with each other, instead of a vibrant set of content creators selling into an open market."
https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/will-the-biggest-tech-merger-of-all
30. This was a fun episode of NIA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqxhqy-NAUg
31. "We talk a lot about product-market fit, but founder-market fit is arguably more important to investors in the early stages of a company.
As a VC, I want to understand why you chose this particular problem. Of all the things that you could devote your life to, what started you down a path that will potentially lead to you spending the next 7-10 years (or more) on this?
Ultimately, VCs are looking for a passion that goes beyond just numbers. Far too many founders I meet have thoughtful business plans and product roadmaps, but can’t articulate in a convincing way why they’re doing this instead of any number of other things (beyond money). As a former founder, I know how hard things get and how lonely and exhausting the CEO journey is.
I need to have conviction that 5 years down the road, when things get tough, early employees (and potentially cofounders) move on and the level of competition has you feeling like you’re like a back alley knife fight, you’re still going to push ahead because this problem matters so much to you."
https://chrisneumann.com/blog/its-not-just-what-you-say-its-how-you-say-it
32. "This stunning revelation of Russian weakness calls into question not just Moscow’s status as a great power but also the very concept of a great power. Even realists who frequently use the term have never provided a clear and convincing definition of what makes a power great. Rather, they tend to use the term to describe everything from true superpowers such as the United States and China, which wield the full spectrum of economic, technological, and military might, to better-than-average military powers such as Russia, which have nuclear weapons but little else that would be considered indicators of great power.
Such imprecision not only distorts analysis of state power and its use in war but can also make countries seem more militarily threatening than they really are. For these reasons, analysts should stop asking what makes a country a great power and start asking what makes it a “full spectrum” power. Doing so would have helped avoid overestimating Russia’s might before February 2022—and will help avoid exaggerating the threat posed by China, going forward.
More useful than the concept of a great power is that of a full-spectrum power, which takes into account the diverse factors that create military might, not just its outward manifestation in weapons. Few countries have ever achieved all the fundamentals on which superior military power is built and sustained; most that have been described as great powers were in fact midranking Potemkin states whose militaries served as façades for otherwise weak power bases. This was true of Benito Mussolini’s Italy, and it is true of Putin’s Russia.
In the last 150 years, there have been only a handful full-spectrum powers. One is obviously the United States, which became the largest economy in the world sometime in the 1890s and had few security concerns compared with most countries. The United Kingdom was certainly a full-spectrum power from the late nineteenth century until 1943, when it had to subordinate its preferred grand strategy to accommodate U.S. interests.
What made them full-spectrum powers, however, was not only their military might but also the economic and technological prowess that enabled their armed forces. Military power is to a large degree based on the ability to make the best, most advanced military equipment, from small arms to highly complex aircraft and naval vessels. This ability cannot be faked, and it must have the capacity to scale up quickly when the need arises. A military is only powerful if it can be equipped—and then re-equipped."
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/theres-no-such-thing-great-power
33. Loved this conversation. Maniacs on a mission. This is the future. Only the most committed people will win. David Senra is intense and I love it!
Be Like Water (Again & Always): The Power of Consistency and Acceptance
I was very affected by “Limitless” episode 6 when Chris Hemsworth spends time in an imaginary old folks home and gets to experience what aging is like. He talks to many older people and learns from them. He learns about the process of aging and also loss of health and loved ones. It was a tough episode to get through for me. Very heavy but invaluable.
Imposing your will on reality and the world. It’s what I’ve trained myself to do. Sometimes it’s a good first try for everything. It’s a good attitude to have as you have control or the sense of control. But eventually you have to accept the fragility of your life and world. You will age & you will lose things. So you need to also learn how to accept things.
As the palliative care doctor BJ Miller explains: “Even as our body is maybe weakening, it’s opening up something else. And this maybe is part of us getting smaller, There is this room for us to get bigger in some other way. That’s when humans really shine when we come up against the limit. It’s a gift in a way.”
Chris’s friend Gary goes on to say: “It’s a kind of revelation that once you learn to accept things for what it is, you actually find something even deeper and more valuable.”
Acceptance is revelation. It’s about giving yourself time and space to have and face difficult feelings. The analogy is of water. We should be more like water in our life. Consistent, flexible and persistent.
“Water:
Can cut through hard rocks because of its patience and persistence
Creates a new path over time to get where it needs to go
Is soft but one of the most powerful and destructive forces
Now, when life throws obstacles in your way, be like water and either cut through them or form a new path that will lead you to your goals and dreams.” (Source: https://everydaypower.com/water-quotes)
Wise men from olden times have known this and spoke of this. Lucretius of ancient Rome spoke that “The fall of dropping water wears away the stone.” Lao Tzu of ancient China said “Nothing is softer or more flexible than water, yet nothing can resist it.”
Yet it works the other way too. Against you. These wise men knew that reality, time, and death is inevitable; you can’t resist and just have to face it. Dealing with aging and death. It’s hard to think about. Maybe that is why it’s important to be present in our day to day life. It’s important to have a code and philosophy of life. Living well and appreciating the life you have now.
The death doulla in the show said it so beautifully “In that life really does hang on a single breath. It’s there one minute and then it’s gone the next. And when its gone, it reminds me that I still have the capacity to breathe, and to live, and to be engaged, and to love, and to laugh, and to be joyful, and to wear color, and to hug, and you know, dance, and to live. To Live.”
Something for us to ponder. Your time alive on this earth is so very precious, so do use it well. It is a well worn cliche but “Life is a gift so live everyday to the fullest.”
Lessons from “Limitless”: Biohacking for Longevity
For those who have known me for a while, I’ve been a dedicated biohacker since 2013. I travel a lot for work so I need to keep on top of my health. Plus I really, really enjoy my life and lifestyle, so one should find ways to extend it any way you can, right? Health is the ultimate wealth as I’ve written before.
So I spend a lot of time and money trying to find the health and cognitive edge from the latest scientific research or tips or tricks shared by Tim Ferriss, Kevin Rose, Andrew Huberman or David Asprey among others. I’ve gone to various biohacking conferences. I’ve read all the books like ones from David Sinclair, Valter Longo, Dan Buettner, Sergey Young, Dr. Peter Attia, Aubrey de Grey and Nir Barzilai, among others. I take lots of various cognitive enhancers like cordyceps and Reveratol and NAD+.
So of course, I was eager to watch the new Limitless series on Disney+ starring Chris Hemsworth, as he travels the world consulting experts in his journey on how to live longer, happier and healthier. He is on the pursuit of extending both lifespan (ie. how long you live) and healthspan (the health and quality of how you live).
I figured I’d share some of the learnings here and thankfully many of these are fairly well known in the biohacking community:
Regular Physical Exercise:
–You need to get your blood flowing which helps your brain and thinking too. Something I rely on a lot as an investor and aspiring creator.
–Muscles and muscle mass are important but they start to deteriorate as you get older. And being somewhat vain, I want to look good and be in good shape so I can fight decently if needed. There are over 600 muscles in the human body and you have to use as many of them as possible for longevity purposes.
–Some endurance exercises like cycling, rowing and running will help with mitochondrial growth, which are key to longevity and health. Research studies show that just 2 hours of this endurance exercise a week can add years to your life. One of the reasons is that it also boosts your immune system to work better for longer.
A regular gym regime is important & i do some basic exercises every single day. You need to stress your body to force it to adapt and evolve. That is why our present sedentary lifestyle is so dangerous to our health. Peter Attia said: “We don’t stop moving because we get old. We get old because we stop moving.”
2. Mental Exercises:
–You need to do novel and challenging mental exercises to stimulate the hippocampus part of our brain. The more we stimulate this area, the more we can resist the cognitive losses that come with age. In the show, Chris is given the very challenging & complex exercise of navigating himself out of the wilderness without GPS or phone.
3. Spending more Time in Nature:
–Humans have long existed in Nature. And unlike in urban settings where the noise and light really cause distraction and massive cognitive load on our brains, we are far more attuned to sights and sounds of nature. Thus it is more relaxing for us. The Japanese even have a term called “Forest Bathing”: “It is proven to reduce stress hormone production, improve feelings of happiness and free up creativity, as well as lower heart rate and blood pressure, boost the immune system and accelerate recovery from illness.”
(Source: https://www.forestholidays.co.uk/things-to-do/forest-bathing/benefits)
Just 20 minutes of strolling in a park without checking your phone has been shown to significantly reduce levels of stress hormone cortisol.
4. Sleeping:
–Getting good sleep is key to human health. Sleep cleans your brain through the glymphatic process. There are some steps you can take to help improve the quality of your sleep like: Sleeping at regular time, relaxing and not looking at blue screen ie. no devices or phones. Taking ZMA (Zinc Magnesium compound). Taking a hot shower and keeping your room temperature around 66 degrees. These are some of the things I do that help. Thankfully I’ve always had pretty good sleep. In fact, I always loved sleeping so it was not a big problem for me. :)
5. Extreme temperatures as Humans thrive in adversity (well some do): Both extreme Cold and Heat.
–Cold helps reset your immune system, fights inflammation. This is why I do cold showers and why others go further and do ice baths. Cold scrambles the pain receptors before it hits the brain and just makes you tougher & stronger. It also has been shown to improve your immune system so you get sick less. I hate cold showers but I have noticed it does help me definitely wake up when I need to ie. mental clarity. There is also a reason that cold water treatments were used in asylums to help those who were depressed. You just feel so much better after coming out of extreme cold water.
–On the extreme heat side, Sauna, Banya or Onsen is also very good for you. Heat shock proteins clean up your body, reducing your odds of cardiovascular and Alzheimer's disease. It’s harder for me to do regularly when I am here in SF but it was something I did a lot when I traveled to other parts of the world and especially when I was spending lots of time in Japan, Kyiv, Finland, the Baltics, Turkey or Georgia. I love Sauna.
6. Diet:
–You are what you eat as they say. Sugar is poison and sadly I love candy, desserts and pastries. But I try to eat these in moderation. Life should be somewhat enjoyable, I’m not a monk :) I think meat and fish is a great source of protein and is important for building and keeping muscle mass. I love eating meat and fish. But I try to counterbalance that with plenty of vegetables and fruits. Thankfully I love green vegetables and fruits. I’m also very lucky that I have resources that allow me to afford organic and better quality foods and ingredients.
7. Supplements:
–Unfortunately much of the modern food today is not as nutritious as it was in the past. So many of us tend to lack important things in our body like vitamin D or magnesium or zinc. So this is where supplements come into play. I also take things like creatine, L-theanine, or drink green tea or yerba Mate for focus. Red ginseng for energy. I also take Lithium Orotate 5 for mood management.
8. Fasting:
–Your body needs time to rest, recover and reset. They recommend doing a 4 day fast with water only and no food which helps reboot your body. For us mere mortals, doing intermittent fasting can be just as good. I tend to do a minimum 13 hour to 16 hour fast every day. Eating only in an 8 hour period. It makes sense, our present time of being around unlimited food and abundant food is a very recent thing and with very unhealthy results like widespread obesity and diabetes. I also do a 24-48 hour fast once a month.
Fasting cuts off glucose to destructive zombie cells that lead to aging among other negative effects. So this is key to life longevity as your healthy cells get healthier. Also an added benefit of fasting as it generates ketones which gives you energy as well as mental acuity and sharpness. Everything seems so much clearer to me during fasting.
9. Meditation, Breathing & Mental Health:
–Learning to breathe helps to calm you down. The technique emergency responders use is “Box breathing”: Inhale for 4 seconds, hold for 4 seconds, exhale for 4 seconds, hold for 4 seconds. Do it a few times and it does calm you, it’s a way for your body to signal to the brain to chill out and short circuit fight or flight. I need it when I run into situations that drive me to rage.
–I also started mindful meditation almost 7 years ago, now doing 20 minutes in the morning, 20 minutes before I go to bed. It’s been a critical tool for me personally. The research shows it reduces stress and increases focus, memory and concentration.
–I’m also really glad I invested in a therapist (thanks to https://www.joinreflect.com) who has helped me identify & face some of my demons. She has also given me tools to cope with life’s inevitable challenges over the last few years. Many of these are self- inflicted I might add. Mental health has been overlooked for too long in our society but glad this is changing.
10. Having great family and friend relationships:
–We are social animals so being with other people, especially our loved ones, is so critical. The people around us give us new ideas, see new things and they encourage us. The feeling of family and community, like you are part of something, having a sense of belonging, helps. It is that knowing you aren’t alone out there. In the show they say: when we are isolated, the risk of dementia increases 50%. Yes, 50%!
11. Have an Optimistic Attitude & do Positive Self Talk:
–How do you reframe bad situations? Growing up in Canada & in an Taiwanese-immigrant household to boot, every interpretation is negative. It is incredibly harmful and I’ve spent a lifetime trying to reprogram myself. It’s not about ignoring reality and thinking everything is rainbows and unicorns. But positive self talk helps us control our fight or flight circuits. You have to truly believe. Thinking positively helps you open up flows of blood to your muscles so you can power through the stress and challenge. You have to make stress your friend & manage it like a tool.
Repeating personal mantras also helps. I tell myself that “Whatever happens, I will handle it.” It’s about reprogramming your scripts. Chris Hemsworh says it best: “The story you tell yourself becomes your reality. It really is mind over matter.”
12. Having a Big and Clear Mission in Life:
–As Nietzche wrote:“He who has a why to live for can bear almost any how.” For me, it’s this bigger picture that allows you to push through the painful moments and challenges in life. It’s motivating to have something bigger than yourself to think of. My family, my friends, my startup founders and my business partners who depend on me. I’m not going to let them down if I can avoid it.
These are just some of the main lessons from the show. Biohacking and some of the tactics/ techniques learned from “Limitless” are very powerful tools for improving your health, your performance and your life. So why not try some of these? You have nothing to lose and everything to gain.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads July 2nd, 2023
“There is virtue in work and there is virtue in rest. Use both and overlook neither.” — Alan Cohen
Love this.
"Minchilli first moved to Italy from the States after meeting her Italian-born husband, Domenico, and has been writing about her life there for 30 years now. She joins a TikTok community of older expats who are turning the trope of “travel influencer” on its head—that is, the image of a 20-something globetrotter checking off a bucket list in pristinely manicured style.
Instead of showcasing sweeping views of Positano, for example, Minchilli might be more inclined to show us how she makes an afternoon espresso in her tiny Moka pot.
Through her platform, the charming expat prefers to inspire travelers to seek out smaller towns and become acquainted with their neighborhoods."
https://www.thrillist.com/travel/nation/slow-travel-tiktok-expats
2. "My plan is to do what feels right and aligned with my own values and continue to build high-trust teams with a strong people focus. If at some point the tech industry spits me out, I’ll at least know I did what I felt was right.
To end on slightly more optimistic note, the other thing about pendulums is that they become less extreme the more they swing. Despite many shifts that feel like progress has been lost, I know that remote work is here to stay in a way that was unfathomable 5 years ago, and the many remote-only candidates have far more companies to choose from. People have moved away from city centers or into nearby suburbs and have gotten a taste of WFH flexibility and productivity.
This new generation of remote-savvy people-centric leaders will rise, displace others, and influence the norms. The industry can feel like it takes on a life of its own, but we are all part of it and can influence it too."
https://jeanhsu.substack.com/p/saddened-by-the-tech-industry
3. "Well, after signing up for it 6+ months ago, my weekly usage of it is for brainstorming.
Need a new product name? ChatGPT.
Need some ideas for a new blog post? ChatGPT.
Need insight for a new market? ChatGPT.
Need a starting point for a new initiative? ChatGPT.
Lack of effort to start brainstorming no longer exists. Let ChatGPT do it for you."
https://davidcummings.org/2023/06/17/chatgpt-for-brainstorming/
4. So fascinating. The 22nd Century will be the age of Biotech. Quick overview of anti-aging science.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLZEEOZlTzo
5. "For Ukrainians, the task ahead will be arduous. Beyond the inherent difficulties of offensive warfare, as Russia discovered when it marched toward Kyiv last year, is Ukraine’s lack of airpower. “What is a major concern is that this the first major international military operation of this scale that has been done without much air support,” says Vald Mykhnenko, a professor of geography and political economy at Oxford University, who is also from Ukraine. “We are stepping into unknown territory as far as military strategy is concerned.”
Still, analysts tell TIME that even in the best case scenario for Ukraine, the country would be unlikely to recapture all of its territories in this counteroffensive attack.
“The pressure and the expectation levels on the Ukrainian troops is so high,” Mykhnenko says. “I just hope we slightly ease up on those expectations and not demand that they retake Mariupol one week and then Crimea the next. People should understand that this is going to take months and months, not a week or two.”
https://time.com/6287830/ukraine-counteroffensive-slow-progress/
6. "For the reasons outlined above, the US economy will probably keep doing what it has done since becoming the world's largest economy in 1890s. Case in point, in 2021, 5.4m new businesses were started in the US, an increase of 53% compared to the pre-pandemic year 2019. Whatever political divisiveness there may be, it certainly doesn't stop Americans from doing what made America great in the first place – setting up businesses, and working hard to make them a success. Thanks to its unique set of circumstances and features, the US should continue to outperform most other major economies of the world.
The Internet has recently been flooded with content of a de-dollarisation of the world economy. Combined with the subject comes the usual plethora of reporting about the end of the US as a superpower, its coming bankruptcy on the back of spiralling debt, and similar predictions.
It reached a point where I asked myself: "Is being short the US dollar such a widely held view that it's worth heading the other way?"
If you have been around for a bit, you'll understand why despite all the well-deserved criticism and the need to be vigilant about a potential change to long-term trends, it's also worth spending a bit more time looking at the counter-arguments.
"A Brief History of Dollar Hatred" is an article worth reading in this regard. Its author Jens Nordvig, one of the world's leading currency experts and a friend of mine whose writings I have long recommended, gives his perspective on the waves of dollar hatred he experienced over the past 20 years, and how he sees things continuing right now. A native Dane, Jens now lives in the US where he has built an amazingly successful business – so he has quite a broad perspective on things.
Ceteris paribus, there are MANY good reasons why the US stock market should continue to trade at a premium to every other stock market in the world.
In fact, if I was in my 20s, I'd probably try to pack up and move to the US. Ignore the noise, and focus on the large set of opportunities there. Given the US is a collection of 50 states that compete with each other, rather than a unitary state, you have many different places to pick from. Don't like woke policies? Florida is waiting for you! Millions have been moving there of late – literally, millions.
Mobility is part of the American culture and enabled by a unified market that EU citizens can only dream about."
https://www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispatches/usa-the-unstoppable-juggernaut/
7. Actually, I'm cautiously optimistic on Turkey in the short run. Definitely bullish on them in the long run as they are well positioned for the future assuming they get a less crazy economic policy in place.
8. Looks like a cool place to visit in the summer. Austrian Tirol mountain retreats.
https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2023/jun/18/cool-retreats-in-the-austrian-tirol
9. "America must be understood as a system of interwoven systems; the healthcare system sends a bill to a patient using the postal system, and that patient uses the mobile phone system to pay the bill with a credit card issued by the banking system. All these systems must be assumed to work for anyone to make even simple decisions. But the failure of one system has cascading consequences for all of the adjacent systems. As a consequence of escalating rates of failure, America’s complex systems are slowly collapsing.
The core issue is that changing political mores have established the systematic promotion of the unqualified and sidelining of the competent. This has continually weakened our society’s ability to manage modern systems. At its inception, it represented a break from the trend of the 1920s to the 1960s, when the direct meritocratic evaluation of competence became the norm across vast swaths of American society.
In the first decades of the twentieth century, the idea that individuals should be systematically evaluated and selected based on their ability rather than wealth, class, or political connections, led to significant changes in selection techniques at all levels of American society.
Spurred on by the demands of two world wars, this system of institutional management electrified the Tennessee Valley, created the first atom bomb, invented the transistor, and put a man on the moon.
By the 1960s, the systematic selection for competence came into direct conflict with the political imperatives of the civil rights movement. During the period from 1961 to 1972, a series of Supreme Court rulings, executive orders, and laws—most critically, the Civil Rights Act of 1964—put meritocracy and the new political imperative of protected-group diversity on a collision course.
Administrative law judges have accepted statistically observable disparities in outcomes between groups as prima facie evidence of illegal discrimination. The result has been clear: any time meritocracy and diversity come into direct conflict, diversity must take priority.
The resulting norms have steadily eroded institutional competency, causing America’s complex systems to fail with increasing regularity. In the language of a systems theorist, by decreasing the competency of the actors within the system, formerly stable systems have begun to experience normal accidents at a rate that is faster than the system can adapt. The prognosis is harsh but clear: either selection for competence will return or America will experience devolution to more primitive forms of civilization and loss of geopolitical power."
https://www.palladiummag.com/2023/06/01/complex-systems-wont-survive-the-competence-crisis/
10. This is an alternate view on SF, guess it is like a testing ground for living in the dystopian future.
"The city manifests the kind of breakdown and bursts of insanity that justify its reputation. What took me several years of living in different places across California and the broader U.S. to realize is that the same crisis is slowly engulfing the whole country. San Francisco is not different from the rest of America—it is merely upstream of it. Its contradictions and tensions are matured and therefore amplified.
What San Francisco offers to those who live here is not an escape from America’s dysfunction, but rather an opportunity to master it. For years, this city has been a testing ground for those who go on to govern America. Those who figure out a path forward for America overall will not come from the hinterlands or the suburbs. These are trapped in their own various social crises. They will come from here in San Francisco."
https://www.palladiummag.com/2023/06/13/why-i-live-in-san-francisco/
11. Little bit grim but shades of truth.
The reality is there are still lots of incredible opportunities for wealth but it’s in building & owning businesses, not being an employee. The middle class is dead.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJJBnmDkEwI&t=606s
12. Well an interesting macro trade here in Argentina. This time it's different?
"Let’s start with the obligatory note that we love Argentina; friendly people, beautiful countryside, great wine. We’ve been there a few times and are fans. More importantly, it’s always been stunningly cheap to visit. Doug Casey famously says that “Argentina is the cheapest civilized place on earth,” and we agree. Given the current (persistent) currency crisis, we assume that it’s even cheaper to visit today.
However, this isn’t a tourist guide. The listed securities are also cheap, unusually cheap, stunningly cheap. Why are they so cheap?? Well, that should be obvious, the country is bankrupt, the currency is effectively worthless, they owe money to every global acronym, and the economy is in shambles.
Fortunately, most of this is fixable. There’s Western infrastructure everywhere, the roads are paved, things actually (sorta) work. The problem is simple; for the past century, the Argentines have chosen insane people to run their country. That’s it. That’s the whole issue. The government is the problem. Fix the government and you fix the country.
So, the trade is easy to understand, Argentina lurches to the right economically, tries to fix the economy, and assets moon. Is it really that simple?? We think so. The only difference this time is that we’re starting from roughly half of the price level in terms of valuations."
13. "The other way to ensure Russia fails in its "don't lose" strategy is rapid, and continuous, military assistance.
Historical experience from the 20th century indicates that operations of the magnitude now being conducted by Ukraine take weeks to generate momentum. The scale of fighting now underway in Ukraine is beyond the experience, or even imagination, of most of our citizens. Casualties will be heavy, the consumption of ammunition massive and loss of equipment will be ongoing.
But the Ukrainians, as they have throughout this war, trudge on. Their army is grimly working its way through Russian defences and defending the skies from a Russian missile and drone onslaught.
The West should consider sending Ukraine everything needed to defeat the Russians as quickly as possible."
14. "While raising more capital might seem like the smart thing to do if you can do it, it can heavily reduce the optionality for your business going forward. It also can promote the wrong behavior internally.
Companies are now shutting down each day that have raised Series As, Bs, and beyond as the amount of capital they have raised and their valuation is not aligned with the traction of the business."
https://trailruncapital.substack.com/p/why-your-valuation-matters
15. Always controversial but I always learn alot from Chamath and I will rewatch this a few times. Some great insights on investing well in life and business.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPWfOc1gIro
16. "Stop letting strangers on the internet dictate your entire personality and belief systems.
The systematic outsourcing of our beliefs to the “influencer” class is one of a growing number of major reasons why so many people are mentally ill and unhappy these days.
Attempting to emulate the lives of others instead of finding your own path and beliefs is the quickest way to unhappiness. It’s also the quickest way to living a life without freedom."
https://www.thesovereignindividualweekly.com/p/dont-outsource-beliefs-influencers
17. "The first thing to understand is that demand for large commercial real estate buildings, such as office towers in big cities, has been rapidly declining as work from home trends turn into the market standard. According to a recent National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, attendance in the 10 largest business districts in the US is still below 50% of its pre-COVID level, as white-collar employees spend an estimated 28% of their workdays at home."
https://pomp.substack.com/p/the-impending-collapse-of-commercial
18. "Digital nomadism isn't solely a post-pandemic way of life, but over the past few years, people based in existing digital nomad hotspots are reporting a boom in the number of newcomers pouring in. Some are taking advantage of more flexible remote working policies introduced due to COVID. Others are indulging in "revenge travel," in which they compensate for several years of no vacations.
Almost universally, a major motivating factor among US nomads seems to be geoarbitrage – earning money in a strong currency and then living in a country where the local currency is weaker and the cost of living lower.
For Americans, especially those working high-income jobs in tech, this can make nomadism a highly profitable life choice. But with the cost of living and housing crises impacting more and more people, digital nomadism can seem like a financially responsible and freeing option even for Americans not earning vast tech salaries.
"When people ask if digital nomadism is good or bad, it's both," says Busittil. "It gives stuff and it takes stuff away, like any social phenomenon."
So if you dream of more than just labor, if you pine to make hay while the sun shines in a tropical co-working space with an iced matcha latte, know that you can do it ethically if you choose. Just follow the advice of those who are already living it, and avoid dragging those around you into your happy hour Zoom."
19. "For the sake of simplicity, I will analyze likely developments in zones around the three main currency areas: the US dollar and its satellites; the euro and its satellites; the Chinese renminbi and its satellites.
I will deploy my trusty Wicksellian tools to express these views, even though the findings will be more intuitively logical than deeply researched.
1) In the renminbi zone, the market rate of interest is going to fall and the natural rate is going to rise.
2) In the US zone, the market rate is going to rise, while the natural rate could go one of two ways: (i) stay stable if the US remains the chief repository of “Schumpeterian” growth, or (ii) fall, if this is not the case.
3) In the European zone, the market rate will rise and the natural rate will fall. It will become impossible to finance the usual social transfers.
As this vendor financing is withdrawn by foreign producers, US consumption will fall to a level dictated by domestically-earned funds. The natural rate will rise in those sectors that now face less foreign competition (reindustrialization in the US should begin, as firms start to raise their prices), but the natural rate will decline in the protected sectors, as demand for these items craters.
A special case should be made for “Schumpeterian sectors” in the US, which earn a very high natural rate of interest. If the US succeeds in dominating artificial intelligence and nuclear fusion as it has dominated the technology sectors for the last 50 years, then a decline in the US standard of living could perhaps be avoided.
In a world comprising three currency zones, each area will likely have free trade arrangements, with heavy protection between zones. The collapse of the unipolar US dollar implies the end of free capital flows between zones, with capital made unavailable to investors outside of the zones."
https://haymaker.substack.com/p/making-hay-monday-guest-article
20. "Becoming dependent on China for any crucial piece of the civilian or military supply chain not only allows the CCP to massively increase its leverage over Western governments, but also puts Western militaries directly at risk in the case of a war. For example, U.S. defense manufacturer Raytheon recently revealed that it’s dependent on China for a number of critical components. If a war breaks out, the CCP can starve the U.S. military of its production capacity, much as the U.S. and Europe have been attempting to do to Russia.
Many of these risks were fully present back in 2015, but Western governments and companies either didn’t realize the extent of the risk, or chose to ignore it. Those days are now done; everyone is being forced to wake up and acknowledge that any type of economic entanglement with China necessarily involves giving the CCP party-state some degree of leverage over you. Whether or not “de-risking” is the same as “decoupling”, the former is certainly a big driver of the latter.
A little over a century ago, Norman Angell famously predicted that economic ties would make great-power war a thing of the past. And he was famously wrong about that. But perhaps not entirely wrong; economic relationships do seem to reduce the likelihood of conflict to some degree, even if they don’t always prevent it. This may be the key to the world of 2015 — everyone knew China was spying on them and taking their technology and subverting their institutions, but China’s huge and fast-growing market opportunity and productive capacity stopped them from doing anything to upset the apple cart.
Now that the opportunity China represents has grown much smaller and the risks larger and more apparent, that fundamental countervailing force against international conflict has largely evaporated.
In other words, no matter what Biden and his officials are saying about a “thaw” in relations with China, the conditions now exist for tensions to flare up again and again. The world of 2015 isn’t coming back."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/four-reasons-china-cant-reset-the
21. "Remarkably, both countries lack what they most need and want. Unlike America and parts of Europe, China and Russia do not inspire people. With a few exceptions (like TikTok), the developed world neither imitates nor worships contemporary Chinese or Russian culture, celebrities, social and other media, music, cinema, universities or politics, and rarely adopts their products, brands, and forms of entertainment and leisure.
The East still copies the Western standard, not vice versa. China makes Western products, and Russia supplies the West with energy to produce and consume them, not the other way around. And their citizens, especially the wealthy and the educated, vote with their feet by emigrating to the West. Very few move in the opposite direction.
As American economist and former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers cynically surmised when asked whether another currency might soon threaten the U.S. dollar’s global dominance: how could that happen when Europe is a museum, Japan is a nursing home, and China is a jail? In this sense, Russia is economically far too weak to even be considered a serious contender by that observer.
Yet it is the West, with its tendency for self-flagellation and culture wars, that has become insecure in its role and ceased to appreciate the values that made its historic dominance possible."
https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/west-globalization-china/
22. "The new twist on this concept is the emergence of networked tribes. With networked tribes, the threat is both largely invisible (most people won’t recognize it is happening) and far more aggressive;
-Quickly mobilize a new primary loyalty to a national/global scale or take action.
-Fight asymmetrically (the target has no natural defenses against attacks)
-Take over status quo competitors (governments, corporations, etc.) by forcing them into alignment and block competitive networked tribes from doing the same."
https://johnrobb.substack.com/p/alignment
23. "Economic life today would be a completely different reality… if the US economy had only grown more quickly.
It’s not like an additional 1.3% growth isn’t achievable; again, the US consistently hit this number for decades.
You’d think that politicians would understand something so obvious, and that they’d do everything in their power to maximize growth. They’d embrace capitalism, cut red tape, create incentives for production, support small businesses, make taxes more efficient, etc.
Or at a minimum, they’d simply stay out of the way.
But instead, they do the opposite. They paid people to stay home and not work.
They single out critical sectors (like energy companies) and punish them. They constantly threaten businesses, invent new regulatory burdens, stifle innovation, and attempt to systematically destroy capitalism, brick-by-brick.
So, no, based on current trajectory, it looks like the debt problem will keep getting worse… until the catastrophes of default are unavoidable.
The federal government has already acknowledged that Social Security’s trust funds will run out of money in about 10 years. This means that, at best, America has less than a decade to turn itself around."
https://www.sovereignman.com/trends/america-has-less-than-a-decade-to-turn-itself-around-147721/
24. "We are now living in a world in which it is relatively easy to create new viruses. There will be another pandemic. It could easily be worse than Covid, and right now, for our “expert” class’s total refusal to own their mistakes, or entertain the thoughts and concerns of the public, half the country is primed to believe all vaccines are dangerous, while the other half is primed to believe skeptics should be jabbed, silenced, and jailed.
There was a brief moment at the beginning of the Covid pandemic where we all took a breath and tried to understand, together, what was going on. That kind of cooperation is presently impossible. Another pandemic will destroy this country.
Debates are stupid, and no scientist should be expected to defend himself on Rogan. But the canonization of our experts is existentially dangerous. Assuming public health is earnestly our priority, it’s worth noting humility is the only thing capable of easing back the public’s rage.
My suggestion for the “experts” is they attempt it, which is not a moral expectation, but a piece of good, tactical advice. You’re welcome. Now please be less evil."
https://www.piratewires.com/p/pirate-wires-rogans-debatable-tactics
25. "Fortunately, another Plan C is available: the West should make it possible for Ukraine to use frozen Russian assets which are now held in Western jurisdictions – $330 billion in Russian central bank assets and perhaps (who knows?) $70-100 billion more in yachts, villas and the bank accounts of oligarchs and sanctioned Russian companies. The CER has previously writtenabout the ways in which this could be done, and some of the obstacles.
From a moral perspective, Russia should clearly be held accountable for its own actions: why should Ukraine or Western taxpayers pay for the human and physical damage caused by Putin’s genocidal war? Russia is not a poor country.
Before the war its per capita GDP was more than two and a half times that of Ukraine, it has $600 billion in sovereign assets (including those frozen in the West), a low debt ratio (less than 20 per cent of GDP, so it could easily borrow to fund reparations to Ukraine if it were forced to do so as part of a peace deal – at which point it would probably be allowed back onto international capital markets) and $250 billion in annual energy export earnings.
But even if Ukraine succeeds in stopping Russia’s advance and pushes its troops back into Russia, the threat to Ukraine and the West will remain. Ukraine will need help to be economically strong enough to sustain its own defence – protecting its Western neighbours in the process. The project of enabling Ukraine to win the war and the peace is a strategic priority and a public good for the West.
Failure to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction would mean economic, social and political instability in a country with Europe’s largest army; the prospect of millions more Ukrainian migrants in Europe; and the need for Western governments to increase defence spending massively in the face of a newly confident and even more aggressive Russia. The West has no choice but to rebuild Ukraine, however it funds the work. But if Putin has to pay for it, so much the better."
https://www.cer.eu/insights/why-russia-must-pay-damage-ukraine
26. "Fast forward to now, and things are looking a bit different. We've shifted gears into an era of multi-entrepreneurship - a space where moonshots and single-mission startups are making way for more diverse portfolios.
We've become "multipreneurs," juggling several ventures, but it seems like no one's really broken down what that really means. So let's do it:
Mul·ti·pre·neur (noun)
A multipreneur is someone who creates multiple products per year, with the aim of creating a company that creates companies.
So let's not confuse these terms. Being a multipreneur is about building small, capable teams for each venture, fine-tuning your game as you progress. It's not about going it alone, it's about leading a pack.
Most importantly, AI, no-code and global talent allow you to be a multipreneur from anywhere in the world — giving you the freedom to work wherever you want, whenever you want, with whoever you want, faster than you ever thought possible."
https://latecheckout.substack.com/p/the-multipreneur-manifesto
27. This explains a lot of India's geo-political leanings in the world. Short sighted but smart. Self interested and no real allies. But is a big present and future power to be watching.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VnNtUd1MX4
28. One of the best cultural and social critics around.
"The solo climb, the Everest trek, the remote expedition — these are deadly, unnecessary risks. Why would anyone take them? Tabling the more obviously gruesome question of why we shouldn’t celebrate their deaths, why should we celebrate their accomplishments? Here, I think we often miss the point. When it comes to the recreational adventurer, it’s true, few of these narrow victories matter. But that doesn’t make them meaningless for all the risk that they demand. The risk, itself, is the point.
We celebrate the risk taken for glory, for wealth, for curiosity, because watching YouTube videos of the Titanic from the safety of our covers is not the thing that makes us great. The quality that drives so small a subset of the global population to extreme risk is the quality responsible for many, if not most of the most important things we have ever built or discovered. That’s what makes us great. We are nothing without risk."
https://www.piratewires.com/p/pirate-wires-subhuman
29. "There is no sanctuary in modern warfare: the proliferation of multi-domain sensors and long-range precision strike weapons make everyone and everything vulnerable. In Ukraine, both sides have learned to use dispersion and fortification to mitigate this risk by changing the cost versus gain calculus for the targeteer. But an attacker still has to leave his prepared positions to mass combat power if he is to stand a chance of exploiting through the enemy’s defensive positions.
The ability to locate an adversary across multiple domains and to remove him from play by multiple means, places primacy of combat operations back in the hands of the defense, in the same way that it did over a century ago at the beginning of the first world war.
The Ukrainians will have planned to use deception and ambiguity to mitigate the defender’s inherent advantage on this transparent battlefield. It is, perhaps, testament to their success that, three weeks into the offensive, military analysts around the world continue to speculate about it’s objectives."
https://amilburn.substack.com/p/the-offensive-is-still-in-its-early
30. "A Former U.S. Green Beret Fought In Iraq, Afghanistan, And Ukraine. He Says Ukraine Is His Generation's 'Most Righteous War.'
I'm sitting in Kyiv right now, and it's like being in New York City or Washington, D.C., or just a regular American city, you know. It's righteous because when Russia invaded, it felt like, August, September 1939, like if we don't stop this thing here, it could get way worse.
Because if you look at it in hindsight, if you look at the trajectory of what Russia has done since the fall of the Soviet Union, I mean, you have Transdniester (Moldovan pro-Moscow breakaway region), you have Chechnya, you have Georgia, you have 2014's Crimea and Donbas, the dawning of MH17 (the 2014 shooting down of a Malaysia Airlines flight over eastern Ukraine). You have all the polonium and Novichok poisonings, you have Czech ammo depots blowing up like they're out of control. I compare them to a rabid dog. If we don't -- if you look at that trajectory -- if we don't stop them here, the next stop on that trajectory is a NATO country."
31. "But the blatant contradiction between disarray at home and increased power abroad has a simple explanation: the greater part of American power does not derive from what the US itself, let alone individual presidents, are able to do, but from the cooperation and support it receives from friendly countries around the world. US power depends on the magnitude and the cohesion of its alliances — and the latter can change very quickly.
But the war in Ukraine is far from the only boost. In fact, now that Russia is declining in several ways, what has added to global American power is the emergence of a vast, if informal, Indo-Pacific de facto alliance to contain China.
Neither Biden’s gaffes nor Trump’s tantrums can change the realities created by Putin and Xi’s bellicosity; America’s European and Asian alliances have rarely been so empowered. Indeed, the only consequence of America’s disarray at home is that the US cannot start wars to pursue fanciful aims, such as bringing democracy to Iraq or progress to Afghanistan. And that is just as well."
https://unherd.com/2023/06/how-putin-and-xi-resurrected-america/
32. "The cards you’re dealt matter … a lot. Your income is the clearest indicator of how much money your kid will make when they’re 30. Churn is increasingly a rare-earth element in the U.S. Per a Georgetown analysis, “It’s better to be born rich than smart … The most talented disadvantaged children have a lower chance of academic and early career success than the least talented affluent children.”
However, the people dealt the best cards can’t see their hands. The myth of the “self-made man” is rife among U.S. citizens who’ve never faced a draft or registered a devaluation in their currency — people who are remora fish on investments made by the U.S. government.
Tech has raised a cohort of people who simultaneously credit their character for their success and blame a rigged market for their failures. The real cage match in tech is entitlement vs. empathy. The former is winning, and that results in a staggering accumulation of power that’s amoral, focused only on the aggregation of more power regardless of what happens to people with less. (Side note: I hope they beat the shit out of each other. Is that wrong?)"
https://www.profgalloway.com/origin-story/
33. "Notice that another feature (or bug) in the venture capital business model is the belief that new ventures and their teams must be young. In 2018, Ocean Gate fired the Director of Maine Operations, David Lochridge. He was a middle-aged man in his fifties with immense experience. He expressed safety concerns about the carbon fiber and about the lack of even a safety beacon in case the crew got into any distress. He was fired, apparently because because he was not as “inspirational” as younger people. Inspirational means fun and fast. The media and investors alike are drawn to the idea that young people should be running start-ups.
Yet, we know that older entrepreneurs outperform younger ones. Forbes reported on a study that laid out the reality. “Researchers from MIT, Northwestern, Wharton and the U.S. Census Bureau” “found that the mean age of startup founders across the U.S. was 42 years. The mean age of high-tech startup founders (where one might presume that the founders are younger) was 43. And the average age of founders of the rare ultra-fast growth unicorns (the 1 in 1,000 fastest growing ventures) was 45.” Here’s the kicker: “The study shows that the likelihood of success as a founder increases with age until the age of 60. The older you get, the more likely your chances of success are. A 50-year-old founder is twice as likely to build a thriving enterprise that has either an IPO or a successful acquisition as a 30-year-old founder.”
So why does the media keep propagating the idea that startups are about the young and why do investors keep pursuing younger founders, especially in sectors that require a lifetime of experience to get right? This all smells of fundraising requirements. You have to offer to do something really sexy that investors can talk about at dinner parties, like tourism to the Titanic.
My question is this: Can we make great hardware with a software business model? No. Is it possible to make great shardware (hardware + software) if the business model is built on assumptions that only apply to software? No. If we want to make real things we need to get real with the business model. Only then can we take advantage of the miraculous new materials that we now increasingly have access to."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/distress-signals-from-ocean-gates
Money is Energy And Energy Needs Big Goals to Channel It: Learning This Natural Law
Money is an important and critical factor in our world and day to day life. It’s like the old wall street joke, “happiness can’t buy money.” It’s a very powerful and animating factor in life.
I’ve learned its closest equivalent is energy. If it’s energy, it does not do well sitting still. It has to flow and has to move. And if you take the Doomberg quote: “Energy is Life”, I’d extend and say “Money is Energy and thus Energy is Life.” And this energy needs to be directed.
In our modern world, we get so tied up and confused about money. Many of the most ambitious around us chase it unendingly as if this is the end goal. Yet, it’s not everything. I’d argue health, family, reputation and time are more important. But It’s an abstraction that drives all of human civilization and the economy and one you have to understand.
What I’ve learned is that the purpose of life is that it is a tool and a score card. There is a great scene in “Moneyball” (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVDAPTabZNQ), where the two key protagonists are talking about a big offer of money to move another team. The assistant coach tells Billy Beane: “You’re not doing it for the money. You’re doing it for what the money says. And it says what it says to any player that makes big money. That they are worth it.”
I agree with this view. It’s a metric to know how well you are doing in life, to know how much value you are creating in the world at that moment. It is no different than the points you get when you play a video game. The more points you accrue, the more tools and options and lives you get. All for the end goal of winning the game.
Now this is the hard part. What does “winning” actually mean and this will be different for everyone. But to really win you have to have goals that allow you to channel this energy properly. What is the end goal? What is the end state?
For me, it’s freedom and options. Freedom to work on things that energize me, things that challenge me but have impact like investing in early stage startups and mentoring and helping founders. Freedom to work with people I love and respect. No more A–holes and no more incompetent morons in my business life telling me what to do. It’s freedom to travel, work and live wherever I feel like and to go whenever I want, to places I enjoy. It’s having the resources to buy whatever books I want. It’s having resources to take care of and help family and friends.
It’s about having resources to help the various charities whose missions I believe in such as Room to Read, Nova Ukraine, World Central Kitchen, International Rescue Committee, Mercy Corp among many other groups. It’s about impact and impacting as many people around me in a positive way. Once I realized this a few years ago, I really think my life got much better.
And just like playing a game, this is supposed to be fun. You should be learning new skills, meeting new friends and getting better all the time. Money is energy and money wants to flow. It needs goals and a purpose that acts like a bucket to harness that energy. So figure out your own goals. And even better if you have really big ones too.
Hip Hop & Venture Capital: So Many Different Permutations That Work
I’m a proud Hip hop dad, as my kid competes in Hip hop competitions. So I get to watch a lot of these shows. It’s so invigorating watching young talented kids compete on stage. So much energy, so much enthusiasm and so many different styles. It reminds me a lot of the business, practice and craft of venture capital and investing in early stage startups.
Venture capital is very simple, you invest and support startups and help them grow. Pretty simple and basic but there are so many different ways to execute it. Do you do the spray and pray model and invest small checks into as many startups as you can and build an index of startups? Or are you more selective and have a smaller portfolio and concentrate and get as much ownership as you can in a few companies. Do you do super early stage companies or later growth stages or do multistage or even crossover funds like Altimeter which does both private and public. Are you a generalist investor, or industry focused. Global or geographic specific?
Just like in hip hop dance, with different executions of basic dance steps and dance moves, there are literally infinite twists and permutations to these basic elements of venture capital. Thus, there are infinite ways to express yourself and make money. And the best dancers, like investors, are able to synchronize with what is authentic to themselves. To truly express their own circle of competition and discover their edge. But this is with the constraint of the long feedback loops that it takes a while to figure this out. You also have to do a minimum number of deals and you need time as well.
And this is why venture capital does benefit more experienced folks, who hopefully have a better understanding of themselves. Deep self-knowledge helps alot. Older folks can also bring more work experience & pattern recognition to the table to help startups. Although I should add age is a double edged sword when it comes to investing in consumer tech, you get further and further away where the edge happens: ie. Young tweens and teens. You have to work harder and harder to keep on top of consumer trends. This is why so many of us end up leaning towards B2B/enterprise software, deeptech or other sectors that allow you to compound knowledge and don’t change as much or as fast.
Anyways, the point is to get really good at venture capital you have to figure out the right game to play that fits you which becomes your edge. As Naval said: “You can escape competition through authenticity, when you realize that no one can compete with you on being you. That would have been useless advice pre-internet. Post-internet, you can turn that into a career.”
This becomes your alpha as they say in the business. Some examples, Harry Stebbings of 20 Minute VC using his amazing podcast empire to build deal flow, connections and brand to build a VC fund. Or Robin Haak or Phillipp Moehring who have built incredible deal flow through their relationships in Berlin, dominating the early stage startup investing scene there. Or Eli Broverman & Jeff Cruttenden at Treasury VC and Sheel Mohnot & Jake Gibson of Better Tomorrow Ventures and their focus on seed stage Fintech. Or Andreas Klinger of Remote First Capital, focusing on technology driven by remote work and digital nomads (I’m a very tiny LP here but his funds are crushing it). For me, I focus on my international networks and have a willingness to travel and invest in places & sectors no one else does, and tie them back to Silicon Valley.
This alpha becomes a differentiator in a crowded VC marketplace. And just like in hip hop the best folks in VC are ones that love the game, learn how to bring their own edge and mix of classic forms to come up with something unique that stands out.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads June 25th, 2023
“Our ambition should be to rule ourselves, the true kingdom for each one of us; and true progress is to know more, and be more, and to do more.” – Oscar Wilde
I love Sauna.
"Their results: Men who took saunas four to seven times a week had about a 65 percent lower risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease or other dementia over the next 20 years than men who did it once a week (after adjusting for other factors, like drinking and exercise)"
https://www.menshealth.com/health/a44079133/saunas-benefit-brain/
2. "Taiwan is best known for making cutting-edge semiconductors. But its companies also turn out other crucial components from printed circuit boards to advanced camera lenses, and they run huge device assembly operations in China.
This has created a triangle of critical interdependence between Taiwan, China and the U.S. that has deepened even as tensions between Beijing, Washington and Taipei have risen.
“People underestimate Taiwan’s position in the supply chain. It’s much more than just about semiconductors. We have a very complete supply chain from chips, components, PCBs [printed circuit boards], casings, lenses to assembly … anything you can think of,” a senior executive at Compal Electronics, a vital product assembler to Dell, HP and Apple said. “If there’s military friction happening to Taiwan, the entire global supply chain will collapse for sure.”
https://asia.nikkei.com/static/vdata/infographics/taiwan-economy/
3. I loved Marrakech and can't wait to go back. Here is a good list of places to check out.
4. "While the Western world has been at the forefront of supporting Ukraine, Russia is likewise receiving aid from antagonist countries that support the vision, which Russia exports. That vision is one of autocracy, where might-makes-right.
It’s a vision wherein the strong take what they want, and the weak must suffer and endure. It’s a return to a system and society-of-states that existed centuries ago, wherein wars were fought simply because a belligerent wanted more space.
These reactionary geopolitical actors are pumping money to Russia (often discounted buying oil from the sanctioned country), giving advanced weapons systems, and providing schematics and blueprints, like for the Iranian Shahed UAV.
China, Iran, and North Korea are all leading the effort to keep Russia equipped and supplied. It is likely that their intentions are similar to our own: to force the other side to spend blood and treasure for a war that it will ultimately lose and to gain insights into the technological innovations and developing practices of employment."
https://andrewglenn.substack.com/p/update-on-the-ukraine-russia-conflict
5. "There is a big difference between starting an offensive, and the main attack or main effort of the operation. The offensive has clearly started, but not I think the main attack.
When we see large, armored formations join the assault, then I think we’ll know the main attack has really begun. To date, I don’t think we’ve witnessed this concentration of several hundred tanks and infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) in the attack."
https://cepa.org/article/think-ukraines-offensive-has-started-wait-for-the-heavy-brigades/
6. "Adventures today are not always grand journeys or great challenges. Often, they are intellectual adventures. And increasingly, many people are content to sit as NPCsletting the challenges pass them by, instead choosing to take the easy way out. Whether you're investing in startups, building companies, working on someone else's something, or seeking to change the world—there are plenty of people who would rather take the easy way out.
The debate of ideas has been largely displaced by the debate of identities. Whether you're conservative or liberal, religious or atheist, capitalist or socialist. We are, in most instances, arguing more about the identity of the person leading the argument, rather than the merits of the idea.
The path to progress more often is built on the value of the ideas themselves, and the execution of those ideas. I think that's why I experience so much cognitive dissonance when it comes to characters like Elon Musk. I can simultaneously think a lot of what he does is gross, while having immense respect for his ideas and execution. But a lot of people can't seem to divorce his character from his contributions."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/the-cowards-conviction
7. "After decades of disappointment, we’re dreaming about space once again. A more robust presence in space will have many implications for the rest of us back home, from the emergence of new industries (like manufacturing in microgravity) to the destruction of old terrestrial ones (like cable monopolies). Of course, the further out we go, the more problems we’ll need to contend with, from clearing up space debris to figuring out how to service existing spacecraft better.
With technology, problems often become the source of opportunity, and space is teeming with both."
https://every.to/p/the-satellite-renaissance
8. "Don’t want to build your new fab in America, where construction costs are sky-high, skilled labor is scarce, and the lawsuit-driven permitting system takes years to navigate? Just build it in low-cost Japan, with its efficient bureaucratically-administered regulation and low-ish salaries! This logic is obviously compelling for companies like Taiwan’s TSMC and America’s Micron, both of which are now building fabs in the Land of the Rising Sun.
Japan’s GDP growth in the first quarter was very robust, driven in part by high levels of private investment.
The weak yen should be a tailwind for these efforts. Despite the word “weak”, a cheap currency makes it very easy for foreign companies to invest in factories in your country, and to buy the products those factories produce."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/at-least-five-interesting-things-5f5
9. "Therefore, in the short term, Gerasimov is most likely to ‘hang tough’. That doesn’t mean there won’t be bitter fighting on the ground. Nor does it mean the pace of the vicious drone and missile assaults on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure is likely to slacken.
The track record of Gerasimov in this war makes for unimpressive reading. He was strategically impatient in launching the 2023 Russian offensive and has not yet delivered any results to Putin other than holding on to Russia’s currently occupied territory. This might be enough in the medium term, but it assumes he still possesses large tracts of Ukraine after their offensive. This will probably not be the case.
There is an old saying that “when your enemy is making mistakes, don’t get in their way”. For some time, Gerasimov has shown an aptitude for making strategic mistakes. The Ukrainians will be hoping he keeps this form in his command of the Russians defending occupied Ukraine in the months ahead."
https://mickryan.substack.com/p/what-now-gerasimov
10. Every American and their allies need to watch this (and read his books).
China is our biggest near and present threat and we need to act accordingly ie. no more half measures on the US side.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6nlyLsw1qi0
11. "The best players of the game, by definition, survive. They prioritize playing another day over the chance to do a little better today. To do so, they study failure.
What would someone prevent from being a great investor with longevity? I can think of a few ways:
Classic ingredients for bad decisions: Ego, biases, and emotions.
Also, mistakes meeting overconfidence and concentration.
A failure to correct mistakes or adapt to change.
A lack of resilience in bear markets and drawdowns due to leverage or fragile capital structure.
Style drift into a game in which the investor has no edge.
Lastly, burnout.
A combination of these can derail even the most experienced operators."
https://neckar.substack.com/p/surviving-markets-why-great-investors
12. "Distressed countries are a different ball game. The legal framework for sovereign debt distress is complex, with no formal international bankruptcy process for nations.
The scale, complexity, power dynamics, and the very act of going up against the people who write the laws to receive what you are owed at the expense of the millions of people in that nation might rightfully scare some people away from getting involved at all.
Fear to some is opportunity for others. Despite getting burned along the way, hedge funds have continued to dive headfirst into sovereign distressed situations not knowing which end of the pool they’re on. Those that swim back up to the surface may have gone through months or years of legal battles, political maneuvering, and incurred significant expenses.
Investing in sovereign distressed debt requires a deep understanding of economics, politics, finance, law, and of course, distress. It can also require developing localized knowledge (have any friends in Zambia?), managing language barriers, and perhaps needing to get your hands dirty as you leave the protections of the U.S. legal system and wage fights in emerging markets.
If by chance you are located in a country facing financial distress, you have the lucrative opportunity of becoming a trusted advisor for hedge funds, private equity funds, and other investors looking for boots on the ground in your country.
Beyond investing, sovereign distress is a topic that affects the lives of millions of people all over the world. The financial and economic situations of a country have a deep impact on the lives of its citizens and their future prospects. Well-managed countries are able to invest in infrastructure, education, healthcare, and overall development of the basic things those of us in functional societies take for granted.
Countries where political leaders exploit the finances of a nation for their own gain should not be surprised to find themselves at the negotiating table once traditional lenders tap out. They will tap out, eventually."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/high-stakes-finance-sovereign-distress
13. Still a believer in the long run on the Creator Economy but it’s ugly at the moment & probably the near future.
“At this time, and for the foreseeable future, the middle class of the creator economy is not going to be able to flourish,” Shapiro said in an interview, who added that his company has enough money to last for nearly three years.
That’s bad news for the hundreds of startups that have formed over the past three years to supply creators with bespoke technology products, from accounting software to video-editing apps. Many of them are trying to find buyers, including Popshop Live, a live-shopping startup for businesses and creators that raised about $25 million from investors including Benchmark.
Some, like the parent company of Koji, are pivoting to products in entirely new markets outside the creator economy, while others are shutting down entirely.
Consolidation is a story as old as the tech industry, one that has played out in nearly every category that has caught fire with entrepreneurs and investors, from personal computers to security software—and now the startups selling services to individuals that have made careers from their online followings.
“There are three periods in any technology market: The first is havoc, where hundreds of little companies are all vying for market share, and then there is a period of consolidation because they can’t all survive,” said Sucharita Kodali, a principal analyst at research firm Forrester. “The weakest ones die and go away, and then there’s a reset at the end of it.”
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/a-reckoning-arrives-for-creator-economy-startups
14. "Nothing in either of these reports necessarily means a faster growing and higher productivity economy will also mean one with higher unemployment, although there may be more job changing, more dynamism. If so, as MGI notes, “workers will need support in learning new skills.”
But history suggests that general purpose technologies — and AI/machine learning/GenAI sure look like one — have a history of broadly improving human welfare even as they also unpredictably change what humans spend their days doing. Both of the recent periods of rapid productivity and economic growth, the 1960s and 1990s, were also ones of rapid job growth. There’s no reason yet to think another tech-driven boom will be any different."
https://fasterplease.substack.com/p/brace-yourself-the-ai-jobs-panic
15. Such a great discussion on what’s happening in cultural businesses. The overview of Messi going to Miami deal is excellent.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJknCqdRIpE
16. "China is a manufacturing country, manufacturing is around 30% of their Economy. They took the position of being the world’s assembly line but it came at a cost. What happens when people don’t want to do business with you?"
https://bowtiedhitman.substack.com/p/the-state-of-the-chinese-economy
17. "Sol was a poster child for the American dream. His immigrant parents were born in a small Russian village. Sol was the first in his family to graduate college. He earned a law degree. He became an exceptionally successful businessman and philanthropist, celebrated 70 years of marriage, was a good father who instilled high values in his sons, and he never walked away from responsibility. It doesn’t get much better than that."
18. "Rather, potential astronomical revenue growth fuels valuations by bringing software to new categories & by serving new unmet interest & voracious demand.
The businesses capturing that demand will command massive valuation premiums.
Even with an AI moniker adorning the pitch deck, a software company is a software company."
https://tomtunguz.com/the-ai-premium/
19. "In Harmon’s view, patience was often wishful thinking: the hope of future proficiency preventing you from really working today at what you want to improve."
https://www.scotthyoung.com/blog/2023/06/13/too-patient/
20. "The unfortunate reality is that, despite craving closure, many people don’t react well to critical feedback. I’ve seen everything from profanity-laden emails to lengthy twitter threads to outright screaming sessions in response to well-meaning, thoughtful feedback. While it might be easy to dismiss these as extreme outliers, they happen more often than you might think."
https://chrisneumann.com/blog/why-dont-vcs-give-feedback
21. "If they see banks continuing to lend and prices remaining elevated, they will hike rates harder and faster until the small distressed banks go to zero. They
have no other objective beyond getting inflation below 2%.
#2 Yellen is telling us 0% rates are likely over for a long time.
This is what she is really trying to say. If there is no workaround to using the US dollar, the message for lower reserves suggests higher interest rates.
If you think people will try to use less dollars, then your goal is to increase the demand for those dollars. The only way to do that is by keeping interest rates at a competitive level."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/inflation-and-interest-rate-messaging
22. "Our greatest scarcity in the broader startup ecosystem is capable and motivated founders. In failing to normalize failure, care for those going through it, and train our best folks in new ways of working in greater connection and support, we set up our best people for failure.
There is another way."
https://www.mattmunson.me/the-values-we-ought-to-leave-behind/
23. "But the most successful people I know internalize the “based” way of viewing the world — that is they are pragmatic, realistic, and in some ways blunt — they aren’t “politically correct”. They don’t let external noise and the opinions of the masses dictate the way they analyze key issues and events or their opinions.
They understand human nature and that higher powers are always at work to consolidate more money and more control. They live positively with this in mind guiding their actions and decisions.
Keep it simple when it comes to finances and markets:
-Bitcoin? Based. It’s limited in supply, immutable, and non cancelable
-Working for yourself? Based. You are self reliant and independant
-Working a white collar job AND having a business? Super based.
-Gold/Silver in reserve for SHTF situations? Based.
-Owning real estate so you don’t rent endlessly? Based.
-Rejecting CBDCs and controlled money? Based.
-Investing regularly in quality stocks, bonds, and assets? Based.
-Not burning money on superficial items and excessive dopamine? Based.
-Paying for only fans? Not based."
https://arbitrageandy.substack.com/p/how-based-are-you
24. "Technology changes our lives, but typically not in the ways we anticipate. The future isn’t going to look like Terminator or The Jetsons. Real outcomes are never the extremes of the futurists. They are messy, multifaceted, and, by the time they work their way through the digestive tract of society, more boring than anticipated. And our efforts to get the best from technology and reduce its harms are not clean or simple.
We aren’t going to wish a regulatory body into existence, nor should we trust seemingly earnest tech leaders to get this one right. I believe that the threat of AI does not come from the AI itself, but that amoral tech executives and befuddled elected leaders are unable to create incentives and deterrents that further the well-being of society. We don’t need an AI pause, we need better business models … and more perp walks."
https://www.profgalloway.com/techno-narcissism/
25. "During the pandemic-fueled rush into private tech, VC funds grew extremely large. Firms like Coatue Management, which raised $16 billion for private investments between 2018 and 2021, sucked all the air out of the room. These funds made winning deals far more challenging for traditional, smaller venture firms, whose ability to generate consistent returns is better proven, according to investors.
For months, venture capitalists have been telling startup founders they shouldn’t be ashamed to raise down rounds at valuations that more accurately reflect their businesses. They should take their own medicine: Venture firms shouldn’t be ashamed to raise funds that more accurately represent the opportunities in front of them."
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/the-end-of-megafunds
26. "Ukraine is trying to do something that has not been successfully accomplished (perhaps ever) before. They are trying to execute a wide-scale offensive with the use of armored vehicles without air supremacy against an entrenched enemy which possesses a large supply of defensive weaponry. Many of the advantages Ukraine was able to use effectively in slowing any Russian advances to slower-than-snail pace over the last 6 months are now with the Russians.
The Ukrainians are having to contend with the fact that now they need to send forces forward, including tanks, APCs, and other vehicles, and they must operate in an environment in which they are threatened by a large number of different systems—such as the almost ubiquitous hand-held anti-vehicle missile."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/counteroffensive-update-one-week
27. I really like his books which have helped me personally.
"Holiday first made his name more than a decade ago as a marketing wunderkind and then mined that experience to produce the best-selling exposé Trust Me, I’m Lying: Confessions of a Media Manipulator. But he soon trained his focus on Stoicism, the ancient school of philosophy that has informed his other massively successful books, including 2014’s The Obstacle Is the Way: The Timeless Art of Turning Trials Into Triumph and 2016’s The Daily Stoic: 366 Meditations on Wisdom, Perseverance, and the Art of Living. (He did not fully decamp from his perch as an observer and critic of the media. In 2018 he published Conspiracy: Peter Thiel, Hulk Hogan, Gawker, and the Anatomy of Intrigue.)
Holiday is now the locus of a constellation of franchises that churns out books, podcasts, and newsletters and has attracted a large, devout audience, one that has ballooned further since the pandemic: in 2020 one of his four Instagram accounts, @dailystoic, doubled its followers to more than two million. The judgmental alabaster faces of the early Stoics peer out at us from every social media platform.
Holiday’s Stoicism revolves, in part, around the idea that we have tremendous agency in sculpting our reactions to the world around us. In The Obstacle Is the Way, which was famously popular among the New England Patriots ahead of their 2015 Super Bowl victory, he directs us to focus on the “poorly wrapped and initially repulsive present you’ve been handed in every seemingly disadvantageous situation.”
Reading his books, one feels that one has a greater capacity for rational action than when one’s index finger is quivering with the urge to press “send” on an ill-advised, passive-aggressive email.
(From The Daily Stoic: “Today, don’t try to impose your will on the world. Instead see yourself as fortunate to receive and respond to the will inthe world.”)
From Marcus Aurelius, Epictetus, Seneca the Younger, and beyond, Holiday draws all manner of wisdom, and he confidently pulls out threads of Stoicism from the works and lives of others.
By virtue of the daily format of some of his titles and the infrastructure around them—social media, podcasts, and YouTube channels—many of his fans engage with his content every day, as one might with a religious leader."
https://www.texasmonthly.com/arts-entertainment/ryan-holiday-stoic-king-bastrop-painted-porch/
28. A very sober conversation on the rise and fall of great powers. Dalio has a good take here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEy3FgvWC0M&t=85s
29. Useful metric to track, which countries the wealthy are leaving and where they are going to. Good precursor of the future.
30. "Two generations later, Dr. Bronner’s has vastly outgrown its quirky, humble origins and become the top-selling natural soap brand in North America. The company now sells not only its liquid soap but highly successful lines of balms, toothpastes, coconut oil, and hand sanitizers, in addition to newly launched chocolates that were immediately hailed by gourmands as a premium product.
Today, the iconography of its labels—and Emanuel’s far-out messaging—is imprinted firmly in the psyche of the American consumer. And yet, even as so many Americans have come to possess a fondness for the soap, the raw numbers around the success of Dr. Bronner’s—over $170 million in revenue in 2022—are still kind of staggering. Especially staggering, maybe, to the customers who’ve been affectionately buying its signature minty formula since the days of the natural-product boom of the ’60s and ’70s. Emanuel’s grandsons David and Michael now preside over an empire in which a bottle of Dr. Bronner’s soap is sold every two seconds or so.
Growth is one thing, but Dr. Bronner’s has managed to become a major player in its market while painstakingly encoding its ethics into every step of the production process. In fact, it could be argued that Emanuel Bronner predicted the current era of ethically minded business, and certainly ethically minded marketing.
And now the humble soap brand finds itself at the vanguard of every philosophical and logistical question that American entrepreneurs are grappling with right now. All of its good deeds—from rigorously engineered fair trade supply chains to charitable donations and environmentally minded manufacturing—are thoroughly cataloged in the Dr. Bronner’s annual public accountability report card, the All-One! Report.
These ideals are built into the complex corporate architecture of Dr. Bronner’s—a certified Benefit Corporation as of 2015—and an agreement between David and Michael ensures that the business won’t be sold off to a global conglomerate anytime soon. It’s a fate that’s befallen so many household-name natural health and food brands, many of which began to flourish in the same era following the late-’60s counterculture revolution that Dr. Bronner’s did."
https://www.gq.com/story/dr-bronners-corporate-success
31. "Despite the challenges, we believe that now is as good a time as any to be building transformative solutions, with both consumers and businesses facing multiple pressures that can be solved through technology. High-quality startups with strong teams, positive unit economics (or a pathway to reaching them), a long runway of growth, and a data-driven approach to building their business will be able to raise.
Sturgeon Capital is actively investing in Central Asia, the Caucasus, Bangladesh and Pakistan and will continue to back founders building category-defining businesses in these difficult times."
https://sturgeoncapital.substack.com/p/how-startups-can-raise-money-in-emerging
32. Great discussion this week. All in Podcast is at its best when they talk about tech and business.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cQXjboJwg0
33. Solid tips for B2C companies (applies to some B2B too)
"Setting up the basics of a monetization system makes a world of difference as your company grows. The cohorts that sign up and don’t monetize are likely gone forever, so it really, really pays to set up a strong foundation.
If you can get to a place where a strong checkout page, pricing structure, paywall, payment processing and churn appeasements, then you’ll be better than 90% of early-stage companies."
34. "The San Francisco city government might take some of the blame here, as they did encourage tech companies to come to the city (especially under the previous mayor, Ed Lee). If you build offices without building houses, rents will go up — that’s about as close to an economic law of the Universe as you’ll ever find. But the city’s actions were understandable given its perverse incentives — because of California’s notorious Proposition 13, cities like SF can’t tax property as much as they should, and thus they have to attract and tax businesses in order to fund public services.
In other words, the affordability crisis in SF is the result of the collision of economic forces with political ones. A nationwide industrial shift, local clustering effect, and perverse California tax law drove up housing demand, while local NIMBYs and urban fragmentation made it impossible to increase supply to compensate. SF’s middle and working classes were driven out and homelessness went way up, which probably increased crime as well.
That collision of economic forces with political dysfunction, not any deliberate action by “tech bros”, is the cause of SF’s long-term woes.
But the old SF can never return. No number of mean tweets will drive the tech industry from its most important cluster; brute economics overrides cultural unfriendliness every time. The only way out is through — to build denser housing, to build more transit, and to do whatever it takes to make regular people feel safe walking the streets.
That is what needs to happen in order to make SF a place where both the rich and the middle and working class can live, once again. If we refuse to build, and instead content ourselves with bitter nostalgia and finger-pointing, then SF will remain a dysfunctional, chaotic playground for the rich."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/did-tech-bros-ruin-san-francisco
35. "And now that the TradFi Devil is causing trouble for some of Satoshi’s faithful, the market is freaking out regarding the potential removal of the US retail investor from the crypto capital markets. I believe this concern is misplaced, and if you are prompted to sell alongside US-domiciled institutions that feel they have to sell or discontinue crypto services to US persons, you will be just another sucker who bought the top and sold the bottom.
Because across the world in Asia, China and Japan’s silent currency war for export competitiveness is going to drive an insane amount of credit issuance by the second largest economy globally. This credit issuance — aka money printing — will ultimately weaken the yuan and prompt some of China’s mass affluent to shift their capital elsewhere. And given the sheer number of individuals that make up the Chinese mass affluent, when they want to “get out”, all manner of hard assets get pushed higher."
https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/fungible
36. "A lot of companies from around the world are investing in Mexico which makes their short to mid term grown almost inevitable, I would buy that stock. What going to hold them up is mostly the security issue, because the transportation part can be solved by just throwing money at it. We don’t live in the 1600s, violence and business do not mix, big business requires stability and I’m afraid the security issue always makes that a huge grey area. How are companies going to feel when truck loads of semi conductors keep getting stolen and sold to China on the black market?
I’m afraid this might force companies to not continue investing too heavily. Why get your cargo stolen when you can go to another country and have that not happen? So what I see happening is more of a diversification away from China than outright replacement. Places like Vietnam are getting some of the shine too."
https://bowtiedhitman.substack.com/p/mexico-will-be-bigger-than-china
All In to Win: the Power of Will
“Gentlemen, go mad. Go!”—Shoin Yoshida of the Meiji Restoration before he was beheaded.
This was the rallying cry that kicked off the bloody revolution that made modern day Japan. We can learn a lot from old Japanese revolutionaries.
Half measures don’t work. This is what I see in the Western world of general prosperity, now showing the rot and complacency that comes with too much good times. If you want to win, you have to be all in. You have to commit everything. You don’t hold anything back. You do the things that others are not willing to do (as long as it’s not against the law, of course). This is the necessary mindset of everyone I know that is successful.
I live in the United States but am fortunate to travel all the time in Europe, Asia & North America like Mexico and Canada. I see the comparison of lifestyles and pace. As much as I think the quality of life is so much better elsewhere, I prefer the hustle and bustle of the USA. I appreciate ambition, big thinking and competitiveness here. Yet, on the other hand, the USA can be a vicious place. The business environment & workplace reflect this. It’s why this place engenders excellence at the individual level.
Nowhere in the world does fear and greed permeate the culture as much as it does here. Greed for wealth that is truly attainable here. And fear of ending up on the streets, as there are limited social programs and a widely viewed culture and opinion that people get what they deserve. It hones a pretty sharp blade and high standards. There are very few places in the world like this, for better or for worse.
A man with ambition, brains, the right attitude and willingness to work hard can go far here.
It also requires a ruthlessness that most people will not or cannot stomach. I saw this over the last 23 years here.
And you demand of others what you demand of yourself. As the founder of Royal Dutch Shell once said: “Whoever is not with me is against me, and I shall treat him accordingly.”(Aeilko Jan Zjilker BTW if you are curious). Or maybe the US Marines said it best: “No better friend, no worse enemy.”
Personally, as I meet the middle of my life, I have less time to waste and so much more to do. Just like America, I need to be more ruthless with how I use my time and with whom I spend my time with. All critical things if I want to have the impact that I am aiming for. Desperate times require desperate measures and we need to act accordingly. It’s time to go MAD.
Be Kind: Treat everyone Like it’s their Last Day
Lorraine Carlson was my godmother, the one who took care of me and my family when I was born in Nebraska. After I moved away, she would religiously send me a letter and a check every year for my birthday when I was growing up in Canada.
I remember the last time almost 6-7 years ago when I last saw her. It was in San Francisco when she was visiting her son. We were scheduled to meet them for lunch. But due to work and my own disorganization/lack of prioritization we were over an hour late. It was just a terrible & disrespectful act on my part.
I tend to do this as I always put my career ahead of family, as I just take them for granted. I wish I could say it was just due to my youth and stupidity, but I was in my early 40s. But we still had a nice time together. I recall when we parted, she cried. She might have had a premonition that that was the last time we would meet. It sadly was the case, as she passed away last year in 2022. God rest her soul.
It fills me with shame when I think back to that day. I wish I was more diligent with my personal life versus the work, that I was actually on time. I wish I was more thoughtful & patient towards people. All people, but especially towards my family and loved ones.
James Altucher once said you need to treat people like they will be dead tomorrow. This way you are more understanding, patient with others and just let stupid & petty things slide. I have been trying to do this more this year.
And to also extend this to everyone I run into. To make allowances for people and their failings. I hope you do the same. The world can do with much more kindness and understanding. And of course, please tip your waiter/waitress/server really well.