Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads June 18th, 2023
“Ambition is the path to success. Persistence is the vehicle you arrive in.” – Bill Bradley
"The current fundraising environment for B2B SaaS companies is more challenging than it has been in years. While venture capital firms still have ample dry powder, they have largely retreated to shoring up existing investments (or investing in AI!) and are being far more selective with their investments.
For founders of post-seed B2B SaaS companies that have raised some funding but are struggling to achieve the growth rates required to raise a Series A on the venture track, this poses an existential question: continue pushing for venture scale at all costs or explore alternative paths to a meaningful outcome for the founders and team?
This article is aimed at founders in this position, caught between the venture capital (VC) and private equity (PE) tracks, and unsure which direction will lead to the best outcome for their companies and teams.
Here we define the key characteristics of the VC and PE tracks, discuss the factors influencing the choice between them, outline the potential benefits and risks of each, and advise on appropriate timing for making a switch."
https://www.discretioncapital.com/articles/the-crucial-choice-vc-track-or-pe-track
2. "Should Startups Pursue LLM Opportunities? Absolutely Yes!
The takeaways for startups here are twofold. First: choose your target carefully. While companies like Microsoft and Amazon can integrate LLMs with relative ease, large legacy companies in antiquated industries do not have the capability to do so. They lack both engineering and fast decision-making, making them the same attractive targets they’ve always been.
Second, startups need to be thoughtful about their product. Try to find less obvious but equally powerful uses of the tech. This can mean focusing on less sexy markets rather than building the 50th competitor to Jasper. Or by connecting LLMs to workflows to make them more difficult to copy via an OpenAI plugin.
When it comes to LLMs, David won’t always beat Goliath. And startup founders have to be very strategic about which fights they pick."
https://aaronmichel.substack.com/p/when-goliath-wins-who-benefits-from
3. "Ultimately, there is ego, and there are business realities. Crivello said the growing consensus from him and his cohort of founders is there’s simply no replacement for in-person collaboration. For one, virtual meeting technology just sometimes doesn’t work, and even when it does, the quality of conversation is just not up to par.
“The experiment is over; we tried, and we failed as an industry,” Crivello said. “It’s very hard to beat how the brain has evolved over millions of years for synchronous in-person collaboration. Everyone just wants to get out of the darn Zoom meeting.”
His thoughts echo a growing chorus of public comments from tech leaders like OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, who called the industry’s rush to embrace permanent remote work one of its “worst mistakes in a long time.”
https://sfstandard.com/business/is-san-franciscos-remote-work-backlash-finally-gaining-steam/
4. "That said, the outcome of our analysis plays a key role in whether or not we invest in a startup. If, at the end of the day, there isn’t a version of the future where a company can generate a 50x return on our investment, then we will not invest. No matter how good the team is. No matter how cool the product is.
Because to VCs, market matters most."
https://chrisneumann.com/blog/why-market-matters-most-to-vcs
5. The folks at Fifty Years are doing great stuff. A truly important VC working on real world life changing solutions.
https://fiftyyears.substack.com/p/a-vc-that-builds
6. This is an absolutely must read and understand. How to benchmark yourself for financial independence.
"Everyone’s different. But while almost everyone can adapt to their stuff, having control over your time through independence will always feel great when you have it and always be a miserable burden when you don’t."
https://collabfund.com/blog/the-spectrum-of-financial-dependence-and-independence/
7. Athens is a cool place. Can't wait to return there.
"Athens is an accidental capital in search of an identity, even nearly 200 years after achieving independence from the Ottoman yoke. The key components of a night on the town were Karelia cigarettes in a flip-lid box; a café frappé at the Art Deco Open Air Cinema Thision (still open today); and gyros at O Kostas, also still going strong.
The financial crisis that caused a humanitarian and social collapse a decade ago ended up galvanizing Greece’s creative and entrepreneurial spirits. The art scene, lubricated by a flow of activism, was the response—the howl of anger—of a society under pressure.
In the past decade, Athens has drawn expats from the United States and Europe due to its relatively low cost of living. Now it’s a playpen for artists and hipsters, as Berlin was 20 years ago."
https://airmail.news/issues/2023-6-3/athens-unbound
8. "A ramp-up in artillery production won’t be instantaneous in either the US or Europe. But plans to do so are a signal of political support — a sign, at least, that the West is willing to support Ukraine for the long haul.
But, in lots of ways, the decisions by Washington and Brussels to invest in arms manufacturing goes well beyond Russia’s invasion."
https://www.vox.com/2023/6/6/23744349/ukraine-artillery-counteroffensive-united-states-europe
9. "Eager Ukrainian soldiers are getting their guns and ammo faster than ever, thanks to the work of the U.S. government’s top bulk shipper: the U.S. military.
The Europe-based unit in charge of shipping weapons to Ukraine has sped up deliveries by 30 percent compared to the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion last year, said a spokesperson for the U.S. Army’s 21st Theater Sustainment Command."
10. I actually enjoyed this. Raoul has a good perspective on the global macro environment. He is a Bitcoin guy but has very good experience as a global macro investor in the past.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UzMNewP5pc&t=5210s
11. “Youth unemployment is a more pressing issue than the aging population,” says Keju Jin, an associate professor at the London School of Economics and author of The New China Playbook. “The 1.1% annual reduction in the labor force doesn’t compare to the fact that the most productive and highly-educated generation cannot find jobs.”
The crisis has led to an outpouring of sardonic grumblings on Chinese social media and the inevitable pushback from officials.
Youth joblessness reinforces growing discontent over a lack of social mobility in China."
https://time.com/6284994/china-youth-unemployment-aging-demographics/
12. "This is one of the dirty little secrets of the debate over defense spending. Governments need to increase military budgets to respond to a new threat environment, but the defense industrial base must be expanded all over the world or those growing budgets will go unspent.
Colby denies that he wants to abandon Ukraine. Rather, Europe should be leading in the defense of one of its own, while relying on the U.S. nuclear deterrent and conventional capabilities that are not needed to counter China. As always, this challenge demands reapportioning the division of labor between the U.S. and its allies.
This also means rethinking the U.S. approach to sharing defense technologies: licensing its systems to make them easier to produce and promoting the use of allies’ weapons systems."
13. "The Arabs have what it takes to be an important player in the new emerging world. Their natural and human resources, geography, history, and civilization enable them to be an independent pole that can confidently deal with the rest of the world based on mutual respect and interest.
With a population of more than 450 million - around 60 percent of whom are under the age of 25 - and a geographic area of over 13 million square kilometers, the Arabs would be ranked the 3rd and 2nd in the world, respectively. Most Arabs share the same religion, history, culture, and language.
The Arab world's combined nominal GDP of around $3 trillion would make the Arabs among the top eight economies in the world. When measured in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms, the combined economic output of the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt alone would make them one of the top six global economies.
The Arab world is in the center of global trade routes; it is the place where the three continents of Asia, Africa and Europe intersect. The Arabs administer some strategically important maritime trade chokepoints such as Bab Al-Mandab and Suez Canal, through which around 12 percent of global trade and approximately 30 percent of global container traffic pass."
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202305/1290387.shtml
14. "The top 5% of S&P 500 index firms have contributed 50% of the index gains in the past year. The bottom 2% have contributed 50% of the losses.
Sub-divide any portfolio (including our partnership) and one will find a similar pattern.
This implies an essential rule: only make investments that have the potential for power law outcomes. The magnitude of power law outcomes (10x, 100x, 1000x returns or more) is such that catching them, and hanging on when you do, is nearly all that matters."
https://phronesisfund.substack.com/p/power-laws-rule-the-world
15. The Comanche were pretty frightening foes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXIF8q1sHek
16. History is fascinating. Lessons & reforms from defeat leads to victory.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-022t9VbFU
17. So much to learn from this guy. How to live an abundant life with intention.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yEQvFT5EQ-8
18. “The thing we see across all the wargames is that there are major losses on all sides. And the impact of that on our society is quite devastating,” said Becca Wasser, who played the role of the Chinese leadership in the Select Committee’s wargame and is head of the gaming lab at the Center for a New American Security. “The most common thread in these exercises is that the United States needs to take steps now in the Indo-Pacific to ensure the conflict doesn’t happen in the future. We are hugely behind the curve. Ukraine is our wakeup call. This is our watershed moment.”
But a swift response may not be possible, in large part because of how shrunken the U.S. manufacturing base has become since the Cold War. All of a sudden, Washington is reckoning with the fact that so many parts and pieces of munitions, planes, and ships it needs are being manufactured overseas, including in China. Among the deficiencies: components of solid rocket motors, shell casings, machine tools, fuses and precursor elements to propellants and explosives, many of which are made in China and India.
Beyond that, skilled labor is sorely lacking, and the learning curve is steep. The U.S. has slashed defense workers to a third of what they were in 1985 — a number that has remained flat — and seen some 17,000 companies leave the industry, said David Norquist, president of the National Defense Industrial Association. And commercial companies are leery of the Pentagon’s tangle of rules and restrictions.
“Unfortunately, the more you dig under the hood the more problems you see,”
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/06/09/america-weapons-china-00100373
19. "Asparouhov’s realm has steadily expanded over the past several years, and the latest marker of his growing profile came just a week ago: After careful tutelage by Founders Fund founder Peter Thiel and top Thiel lieutenant Keith Rabois, Asparouhov was officially elevated to partner at Founders Fund, a reward for landing deals like Hadrian, which manufactures parts for the aerospace and defense industries, and Cover, a custom home startup.
What part of my time with Asparouhov presented was a rare window into the closed-door world of Thiel and Founders Fund. Over the last decade and a half, Founders Fund has established itself as one of the top venture capital firms, funding Facebook, Stripe, Airbnb and SpaceX, among a slew of other notable businesses. But unlike those at many of the other big firms, its partners prefer to shy away from much media attention. When they do want to speak, they prefer to do so for themselves—often through Twitter.
And Asparouhov has certainly learned not only how to invest like his mentors but how to talk like them: He delights as a libertarian provocateur on Twitter—endorsing Donald Trump, joking about moving Silicon Valley to Dubai and applauding Elon Musk’sleadership at Twitter. Still, he’s undeniably proved himself to be more than another contrarian loudmouth. It was a viral Asparouhov tweet to Miami Mayor Francis Suarez that sparked the great migration to the Magic City during the pandemic.
Yet Founders Fund represents just one half of Asparouhov’s world. There’s Varda, too, his gamble that the dawn of the commercial space industry is indeed finally here.
With his two worlds tightly wound together, Asparouhov has managed to both simultaneously position himself as a leading successor to Founders Fund’s aging old guard and become a leading player in what might be one of the fastest-growing industries in the coming decade.
“Delian has been the single most important player in hard tech in the last three to four years,” said Jai Malik, the general partner at Countdown Capital. “With Varda, Delian and his co-founders showed investors that space is a market to invest in and take seriously beyond SpaceX.”
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/the-overlapping-galaxies-of-delian-asparouhov
20. This guy very much hates the USA & Dollar run world but it’s good to understand the other side’s view.
I think he is a bit too idealistic and his hate collars his view too much. Like the alternatives of China or Russia will be so much better & fairer (hint: it WON'T)
https://slkanthan.substack.com/p/10-benefits-of-dedollarization
21. Hmmm.......
"In the US, banks and corporations control the government. In China, it's the other way around.
Thus, a successful Chinese system threatens the corporatism in the West
Chinese can think in gray areas, while the West lives in a bubble of reductionist and absolutist slogans. Thus, the collective West cannot fix its system, let alone admit its failings. Instead, its only option to is to take down its competitor."
https://slkanthan.substack.com/p/usa-v-china-who-runs-the-system-heres
22. This guy SL is an A--hole & anti-USA on everything but I try to read counter-veiling views out there.
His criticism of Peter Zeihan's views are interesting. Zeihan has been more right than wrong so far though & I do think Zeihan ignores important technological trends and is too bombastic/negative about China's ability to figure stuff out.
Some good points on deglobalization and how real it is.
"The West’s “China plus one” strategy has become “China plus China” strategy!
While you may see more “Made in Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Mexico” etc. labels in the stores, they are still mostly made in China.
So, you see, decoupling is a delusion. The US economy cannot function without other countries. And that’s true for China and all countries in the world."
https://slkanthan.substack.com/p/peter-zeihan-is-the-jim-cramer-of#details
23. Great conversations this week. Very interesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPMNbMR1p70
24. "We should all care about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The global semiconductor industry would freeze. Inflation would spiral further upwards and the post-COVID recovery would be reversed. So many of the tools we rely on would disappear from our shops for years. It would wreak enormous damage on us all —- with the Taiwanese people bearing the greatest cost."
25. "Andreessen is one of the more prominent names in a new class of tech wealth that includes figures like Elon Musk and Peter Thiel whose political vision and methods conflict both with dot-com tech titans like Bill Gates and Pierre Omidyar, as well as with those of old world industry and media, like Rupert Murdoch and Ted Turner.
While it might seem strange, given his own position of power, for someone like Andreessen to criticize elites, the truth is that elites have cliques, just like the rest of us. And in the cafeteria of America’s billionaires, Andreessen and his peers are hurling food and spoiling for a fight, while the incumbents are calling in favors at the State Department and New York Times.
Of course, neither camp is driven solely by high-minded ideals, but both maintain fundamentally irreconcilable views of the kind of country they want to build. While Reid Hoffman and Pierre Omidyar, respectively, founders of LinkedIn and eBay, pledged $27 million to help artificial intelligence “vindicate social values of fairness … and justice,” Andreessen publicly laments the ill effects of training artificial intelligence on the “woke mind virus.”
Marc Benioff’s company, Salesforce, announced last year that they would tie executive pay to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) initiatives, which Andreessen has sharply criticized.
While these disagreements may look like a contest between conservatives and liberals, the reality is not that simple. Garry Tan, a successful investor who is now the president and CEO of famed startup incubator Y Combinator, has been a vocal critic of San Francisco’s progressive politics in recent years, while affirming that he has “always been and likely will always be a Democrat.”
He and Andreessen, like others, appear to believe instead that this disagreement is centered around the embrace or rejection of a certain set of principles—uncovering and amplifying the best talent, valuing meritocracy over credentialism, fixing problems by circumventing institutions, and thinking from first principles—which underpin the tech industry’s runaway success.
Both camps also believe that the other team is the root of the country’s (and maybe the world’s) problems. It’s a fight worth watching, and understanding, because its outcome will have long-term implications for all of us."
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/silicon-valley-civil-war
26. This is long overdue but better late than never.
https://www.autoblog.com/2023/06/10/the-us-is-building-factories-at-a-wildly-fast-rate/
27. Maybe.....
"The United States and the European Union, he said, would lose from moves to freeze hundreds of billions of dollars of Russian sovereign assets as many countries were moving to settling payments outside the U.S. currency and the euro while China was moving towards a removal of currency restrictions.
"The long historical era of the dominance of the American dollar is coming to an end," Kostin, 66, told Reuters on the 59th floor of the gleaming VTB (VTBR.MM) skyscraper overlooking southern Moscow. "I think that the time has come when China will gradually remove currency restrictions."
28. Great profile on a liquor tycoon Sidney Frank.
https://www.shaanpuri.com/sidney-frank
29. "Entrepreneurs would do well to put together a Google Doc or Notion Doc with a running list of their favorite interview questions. It should be a living doc that’s visited regularly, and when a new question emerges, add it to the list and continually experiment with them. The better the interview questions, the better you understand the candidate."
https://davidcummings.org/2023/06/10/build-a-running-list-of-interview-questions/
30. "Make no mistake: Governor Ueda knows exactly what he is doing. It has been more than 30-years since inflation was a real problem in Japan, so inflation expectations are still firmly anchored in the deflationary “post bubble” mindset. He is right, in my view, to insist - for now - on the virtues of continuity with his predecessor’s policy. The all-out attack on deflation is still on"
https://japanoptimist.substack.com/p/no-bubble-no-trouble
31. Love these kind of stories.
"Turner started her shop last November, around the time Swift announced her Eras Tour. That tour, which began in March, is expected to be one of the most lucrative in history, generating ~$11.3m from tickets and ~$2.4m from merchandise every show, according to industry analysts.
It’s also opened up a market for Swiftie entrepreneurs. As fans swarm concert venues for Swift, some have chosen to forgo hours long lines to buy official concert merchandise, and others couldn’t afford tickets in the first place.
Instead, many have purchased Swift-related merchandise from online shops that can gross several thousand dollars per month.
Lately, Turner has been making four to six sales a day of Swift-inspired hats, sweatshirts, T-shirts, candles, and more — enough to cover her monthly rent.
“Honestly,” Turner said, “running this Etsy shop has been pretty life-changing financially.”
https://thehustle.co/the-etsy-sellers-paying-rent-with-taylor-swift-merch/
32. "This war is not going to end with these Ukrainian operations, and much of this conflict has been defined by incremental gains and attritional warfare. The Ukrainian counteroffensive might not shift the map all that drastically, but Kyiv does need to emerge stronger, Russia weaker.
Russian President Vladimir Putin likely believes he has the advantage, that he can wait out Ukraine and its Western backers. But if Ukraine can batter Russia’s forces, or even leave Russia with less territory than it had at the start of this offensive, it will be hard for Russia to continue to claim it is winning. That likely does not usher in the war’s end, but it will transform this conflict once again."
https://www.vox.com/2023/6/10/23750041/russia-ukraine-war-counteroffensive-begins-explained
33. I've always liked Ryan Gosling. A fellow Canuck trying to figure out his way in America.
"Gosling started asking himself: What is my talent? He began auditioning, and the auditions he was traveling to led to him being cast, at age 12, in Disney’s The All-New Mickey Mouse Club, alongside Justin Timberlake, Christina Aguilera, and Britney Spears. Unlike his peers, he did not make much of a mark there. “Everybody was at, like, prodigy level.
I certainly wasn’t a child prodigy. I didn’t know why I was there. And I think that was the consensus. It’s why I didn’t work—it was like, they dressed me up as a hamster or put me in the background of someone’s song. But it was all a great experience in a way because it helped me figure out what I wasn’t going to be good at. Which is important to learn too.”
https://www.gq.com/story/ryan-gosling-summer-2023-cover-profile-ken-barbie
Dependencies are Dangerous: Self Reliance and Diversification is the Cure
There is a scene in the excellent sci fi series Peripheral tv episode 5 on Amazon video where the mom talks with her kids, the main protagonists, about power imbalances. All gifts come with a cost. And dependencies are always dangerous.
“I also took it to heart. The idea that the worst thing a person can do is grow dependent on some outsider.”
This was quite an enlightening scene and a reminder and object lesson for all of us in the real world. It’s incredibly dumb and risky depending on one country, one income, one job, one customer, one investment, one key employee or partner. I’m thinking through my own dependencies even as I write this. As the famous Andy Grove, co-founder and CEO of Intel named his insightful book: “Only the Paranoid Survive.”
You have to take inventory constantly and treat all your dependencies like a metaphorical gangrenous limb that you have to cut off the minute you smell rot. Cut off the blight and cauterize the wound. It’s the only way to save the rest of your body. This works for both individuals and for growing startup organizations.
Learn to count on oneself first. That means taking responsibility and pure ownership for everything you do and everything that happens.
Have high standards in people around you. And people come through for them, do all that you can to keep them around. And yes, you can and should give people some allowances. As Imam Shafi’i said: “Be hard on yourself and easy on others.” So always assume good intentions and give them one chance. But if they mess that up, you have to cut them off right away, especially if they prove untrustworthy or weak. This is a mistake I’ve made throughout my career and even in recent times. And was one that cost me a lot of money and time.
Build options. Keep your cost structure low. Have extensive savings and assets. Be and build for flexibility. This might seem like a lonely, cynical or sad way to live. But personally it’s worked well for me. Quoting Jodi Picault: “There were two ways to be happy: improve your reality, or lower your expectations”
I keep working at making my life better, being reliable to a fault myself and at the same time, I keep my expectations of most people around me low. Alexander Pope said: “Blessed is he who expects nothing, for he shall never be disappointed.”
Mundane Dreams Equals a Mundane Life: Existing in the Matrix
I spent a good part of the 2022 winter break wandering around downtown Vancouver. And it was lovely. A short break in a ridiculously busy year of business and travel. Some valuable time to reflect and think.
It’s great to be by oneself, eating lunch, having a coffee, reminiscing. But also really interesting listening to young and old people around me, talking to each other about their lives and dreams. But without judgment, their lives and hopes seem so plain & boring to me. Trying to get that job or promotion, getting good grades, trying to find a boyfriend or girlfriend or spouse. Or the car or clothes they want to buy. It’s like they are literally programmed. I see people going through the motions with dead eyes. No real excitement or joy in their eyes. They are not really living, they are almost like Lichs or zombies.
What happened to big dreams? Adventure, excitement, seeing the world, having a positive impact on others at scale. Building things, big beautiful and great things.
I recall an exercise I did at the World Domination Summit over a decade ago. The speaker asked when was the last time you thought anything was possible. When you dreamed about being an astronaut or explorer or something fantastical?
Almost universally it was around age 10. And then it kind of disappeared because “school”: our education system and our families told us we had to grow up and be realistic. Our imaginations were literally drummed out of us. We were laughed at when we shared our big dreams.
It took me leaving Canada, backpacking around Europe and then moving to two new countries (Taiwan and the USA), surrounding myself with books, new friends and a community of achievers to rediscover this. But I also admit I spent a lot of time flailing around as well. Yet I figured it out (mostly). Or at least directionally.
And now my life is almost literally what I dreamed of growing up. I spend the year traveling the world speaking, advising and investing, going to countries most people have never even heard of. I get paid to travel. I also continue to learn new things. I work with smart, awesome people and go wherever I want, whenever I want. I can buy any book I want and eat fine or not fine, yet delicious foods. I am pinching myself as I write this.
It goes as the old Napoleon Hill saying: “whatever the mind can conceive and believe, it can achieve”. In other words, dream big and literally work your ass off to make it real. It’s really possible. Dreams are the first step. (I should note, sadly, that many people get stuck in the dream phase and don’t do any of the hard work needed.)
Dream big, live big. Dream small, live small. It’s a lesson I’m trying to instill in my kid as well. And doubly important in this ever changing world we live in now: it’s full of promise and peril. Life is short so why not make it count for something, so dream big and take big swings in life.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads June 11th, 2023
“The people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world are the ones who do.” – Steve Jobs.
"Nationality is not something most people choose; it’s a status or a barrier thrust on us by birthplace or heritage. Cities, though, are places—and identities—that we choose for ourselves.
And when we feel enough of a connection to stay somewhere, perhaps cities can choose us too. But with the freedom to live and work from anywhere, how do you navigate choosing—or staying long enough for a place to choose you?"
https://globalnatives.substack.com/p/where-are-you-from
2. History is amazing. Thread on the fall of Constantinople.
https://twitter.com/Varangian_Tagma/status/1663183116981207040
3. So many nuggets of wisdom here. Seth Godin is the GOAT.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HekHk6yLmF0
4. Old write up but still bullish on Uzbekistan.
"E.g., if you want to make 10, 20 or 50 times your money or achieve an outsized dividend yield that you just couldn't achieve in more mature markets, these so-called "frontier markets" are a place that you should pay attention to.
In case you haven't got a clue what's been happening in Uzbekistan over the past two years, you are not alone.
The Chinese, the Russians and the South Koreans are already significant investors in the country. Foreign direct investment is growing rapidly, but Western countries generally have not been paying much attention to this corner of the world. Nor have there been overly many journalists visiting the country to report about its economy and businesses.
Uzbekistan lies at the center of the region known as Central Asia, which also comprises Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan.
Historically, these were the countries that made up the fabled Silk Road, i.e., the trading route that first connected Europe to Asia."
5. "Anyone who has been to Istanbul will understand what I mean by the country's great entrepreneurial spirit. It's a buzzing, booming, modern city – with much of its economy running on euros and dollars. When I last visited in June 2022, I concluded (to my own surprise) that I'd be happy to spend more time there (which, sadly, is not something I'd say about quite a few Western European capitals anymore).
With all that wrapped together, the Turkish stock market is a market that I am rather interested in. Something that is cheap, opaque and a bit unpopular generally piques my interest."
https://www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispatches/turkey-taking-stock-in-times-of-change/
6. Good primer on credit card churning. ie. using points for flights, hotels and excursions.
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/guest-post-on-credit-card-churning
7. "Anyone that’s ever dealt with ballooning debt understands the ramifications. At a certain point, you lose the ability to manage both the debt and interest payments regardless of how much your salary increases. In this case salary can be substituted for tax receipts. At some point, all you’re really doing is making interest payments. For an individual, that can be crushing for quality of life. For a nation, that likely means all types of problems down the road.
Now combine the realities of expanding Debt to GDP trends with some of the other trends we’ve seen lately.
Inflation and resulting contraction of the middle class purchasing power and quality of life. The financial warfare of the West vs Russia that in many ways ushered in a time of mutlipolarism with many nation-states finding ways to strengthen alternative global partnerships while diversifying foreign currency reserves. And of course, the massive accumulation of gold reserves of central banks around the world.
The writing is on the wall for anyone willing to pull their heads out of the sand and look."
https://www.thesovereignindividualweekly.com/p/weve-entered-doom-loop
8. Fascinating thread on the Venetian empire.
https://twitter.com/byzantinemporia/status/1663916403433381890
9. "Germany looks increasingly willing to cut Chinese companies in the semiconductor supply chain off from important materials and components. For China’s optics industry, and by extension its efforts at developing advanced photolithography, this could present a major roadblock going forward."
https://thechinaproject.com/2023/05/01/chinas-semiconductor-industry-cant-quit-german-optics/
10. "Drone Lab is not the only IT company in Ukraine working on developing innovative military technology.
Before the war, Ukraine’s IT companies were transforming the country into an emerging digital leader. Now, these companies are also transforming Ukraine into a military innovator.
Traditional military production follows the waterfall approach. In the waterfall method, the entire set of requirements for a solution must be identified before building the product, and testing only occurs once the product is entirely constructed.
Startups opt for the agile approach, prioritizing the most critical requirements and tackling problems as they arise.
For Ukraine, time is of the essence. Solutions must come fast, and testing new products during combat offers an opportunity to enhance essential features and functionality in real-life situations.
“This is why startups are winning,” Vasylieva said."
https://kyivindependent.com/fighting-smarter-ukraines-transformation-into-military-innovator/
11. Talk about very creative re-tooling.
"According to Reuters, Ukraine is specifically asking for Mk 20 Rockeye II cluster bombs. Also known as CBU-100, Ukraine’s reported plan for the weapons would not involve dropping them from combat aircraft. Instead, they would take the Mk 20s apart and their submunitions would be adapted into bomblets that will be dropped by lower-end drones."
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-wants-u-s-cluster-bombs-but-not-for-what-you-think
12. This seems to be endemic to tech world last decade or so. It has been a hard wake up call for many this last year.
"Toni says that, while Lecha has taken much of the blame for the change to the company’s culture, the roots of the problem began with Typeform’s generous perks in the early days.
“With the unlimited holiday about a third of people were taking the piss and weren't really being held accountable,” she says. “A lot of the toxicity in my opinion comes from the fact that there were all these nice things thrown at people with not much accountability at the beginning. People became really entitled.”
https://sifted.eu/articles/us-hustle-mentality-typeform-spain
13. Pretty scary stuff. USA is very much at threat by our enemies. Power Grid blackouts are a real risk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cibrirsq5Gc&t=374s
14. "I argued a while back, that, seeing how the Ukrainians had waged war before, that there would be such attacks the closer they came to the counteroffensive. They would not want to do such attacks too early (giving Russia time to recover) and they would not want to do them right at the start of the counteroffensive, because they would want forces at the front to struggle a little with supplies before attacking.
However a sustained campaign of this type would indicate the counteroffensive is approaching."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/the-ukrainian-counteroffensive-getting
15. Highly recommend Capital Camp if you are an investor. Been there last 3 years in a row. Good write up about it here.
https://chrisneumann.com/blog/dont-forget-the-big-picture
16. I enjoyed this interview more than I expected. Rob Lipsett seems like a cool dude living his best life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaWX55EVHA4
17. "But we don't achieve true, unadulterated freedom until we graduate from college. Armed with a sheet of paper that shows that we are employable, we emerge from our alma maters with a world of opportunity before us.
No longer living at home. No longer constrained by class schedules. We can, for the first time, literally do anything that we want.
And then this peculiar thing happens. We don't do whatever we want.
After spending 22 years preparing for this moment of unbounded freedom, we spend the next 40 years squandering this freedom making money that we don't need to buy stuff that we don't want to impress people that we don't care about to maybe, if we are lucky, spend our excess cash in retirement when it is least valuable to us because of our limited energy."
https://www.youngmoney.co/p/case-traveling
18. "In other words, much of what made China’s economy special during its glorious decades was due to its unusual real estate system. Now that era is ending, and China is going to have to start looking much more like a normal developed country. If it fails to make that transition, difficult times could lie ahead."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/real-estate-is-chinas-economic-achilles
19. "For once, Turkish stocks are very difficult to access. With the exception of some foreign-listed Turkish stocks, investors need to open a local brokerage account, which makes it difficult but also potentially interesting. Once it becomes easier to trade Turkish stocks – which it will at some point, e.g. thanks to trading apps such as Piapiri eventually opening to foreign users – the market could see additional investment flow into some of these names.
Valuations are an issue, though. Some Turkish stocks are cheap, but are they cheap enough?
At a time when many stocks listed on Western exchanges are trading for p/e ratios of 3-6 (banks, energy, and other Old Economy sectors), is it worth going the extra mile to invest in Turkey?"
https://www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispatches/turkey-investor-trip-what-we-learned/
20. "No, to love a problem like that is to meet it with dozens, hundreds or even thousands of solutions. To recognize that perfection is impossible. To love a problem like that is to face frustration and closing walls, to meet rejection and rough compromises.
But perhaps—just perhaps!—through the humble process of asking and attempting and asking and attempting and asking and attempting—we take the tiniest of steps forward. We make progress. We make something of ourselves.
Love the problem, and in its swirling abyss, find the reward."
https://lg.substack.com/p/the-looking-glass-love-the-problem
21. "The Overall Defence Concept embraces an asymmetric approach to defence strategy. Wisely, the Overall Defence Concept doesn’t seek a symmetrical, head-to-head competition with the much larger PLA.
Instead, the resources available for Taiwan to ensure its defence are prioritised on targeting high value targets, denying a Chinese landing and ensuing the survival of the Taiwanese military – and the nation itself - until intervention by the United States, Japan or other countries begins.
It does not do this by completely ridding the armed forces of Taiwan of warships, combat brigades or fighters. However, it does readjust the balance of national investment in these conventional capabilities with increased procurement of weapon systems and munitions that permit an indirect approach to attacking any PLA invasion force.
While the Overall Defence Concept pre-dates the Ukrainian defence against Russia, many of its key proposals have been validated by the Ukrainian strategy of corrosion that has been executed over the past 16 months.
Not only does it offer a model for the most effective and efficient use of Taiwanese defence resources in peace and war, but it also offers a framework for other nations in the region to potentially emulate."
https://mickryan.substack.com/p/the-overall-defence-concept
22. A good thread for those interested in the 5 Flag strategy.
https://twitter.com/StirlingWisdom/status/1664616165031698433
23. Brave men.
"In Taiwan, he was in the coffee industry and military reserves.
After Russia invaded Ukraine, Yao Kuan-chun volunteered to go fight.
He has been on the ground in Ukraine the past three months, one of a handful of Taiwanese soldiers who have joined other international fighters in the war that started in February 2022.
Yao, 30, knows the threat of invasion from a bigger authoritarian neighbor – China – and is fighting for the larger causes of democracy and freedom.
But he’s also getting first-hand combat experience in case China decides to invade his island.
"Tensions have escalated (across the Taiwan Strait), so we need to pick up the pace if we're to be ready. Whether or not they dare to invade depends on our preparedness,” Yao said.
“Who's going to come to your rescue if you don't defend your own country?"
"There's a saying that goes, 'Today, Hong Kong, tomorrow, Taiwan'," he said, referring to fears that the erosion of Hong Kong’s freedoms could be repeated in Taiwan should it come under Chinese rule.
"Or you could say, ‘Today, Ukraine, tomorrow, Taiwan,’" he said."
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/taiwan-soldiers-ukraine-05302023144044.html
24. "young people’s time spent outside of the house is a forward-looking indicator of their success.
For most uber-successful people, however, online activity is leverage for relationships and achievements established in person. The only way you will be loved by others, get to love them, and live a life you do not deserve is to take uncomfortable risks.
Today the risks are mundane but offer greater returns. Say yes, go to the second place, and be promiscuous when it comes to expressing your regard, interest, and love for others. You will experience disappointment, sore muscles, hangovers, and awkward moments. And looking back, you will regret none of it. Say yes."
https://www.profgalloway.com/yes/
25. "YPF went from public to private and back, and in the middle of these shenanigans a small group of insiders made bank.
Today, YPF is worth $4.418 billion dollars, which makes Argentina’s 51% worth $2.253 billion dollars.
For that 51% Argentina will have to pay $20 billion for having expropriated it, little over 9 times more, not counting the fact that Grupo Petersen was able to get their 25%+ thanks to public funds stalled in Switzerland in the first place, which are no longer accounted for as we’ve seen above.
Even though it is clear who were involved in this laundromat of epic scale, and there’s little doubt about the irregularity of the financial loophole in transactions and ownership, it is almost certain that no one will end up in jail or even prosecuted for receiving YPF bags of at least $20 billion+ in FU money at the tax payer’s expense."
https://bowtiedmara.substack.com/p/ypf-the-laundromat-of-the-century
26. I think this is a great thing and inspiration for men everywhere. It's absolutely wonderful that people work on themselves and stay in shape. Don't get this snarky article.
"It’s not just Zuck and Bezos getting swole. We are in “the era of the buff mogul”, the New York Post declared last year. “Ripped abs are the new power trip for CEOs,” El País has stated. “Billionaires these days are buff,” the Guardian recently observed. The size of your biceps has become as much a status symbol these days as the size of your bank balance.
There are numerous reasons for this, including the tech world’s obsession with biohacking and treating the human body like it’s a machine that can be optimized."
27. For anyone who thought the American Indians were push overs or peaceful. This documentary puts that lie to pass.
The vicious wars of extermination between the Comanche & Apache tribes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSYN7GF_ll0
28. Russia reaps what it sows. I expect there will be more of these attacks soon. Slava Ukraini!
https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/05/politics/ukraine-sabotage-agents-russia-drone-attacks/index.html
29. "First, a short description of what AI is: The application of mathematics and software code to teach computers how to understand, synthesize, and generate knowledge in ways similar to how people do it. AI is a computer program like any other – it runs, takes input, processes, and generates output. AI’s output is useful across a wide range of fields, ranging from coding to medicine to law to the creative arts. It is owned by people and controlled by people, like any other technology.
A shorter description of what AI isn’t: Killer software and robots that will spring to life and decide to murder the human race or otherwise ruin everything, like you see in the movies.
An even shorter description of what AI could be: A way to make everything we care about better."
https://a16z.com/2023/06/06/ai-will-save-the-world
30. "Throughout all of this chaos, tensions with Russia, China, and Iran are on the rise… while the US military is being weakened by woke politics, fiscal mismanagement, and terrible leadership.
It seems like every few days there’s another major embarrassment… from a guy who never met a staircase he can’t fall up, to the humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan, to a major crisis in the US banking system, to ‘mostly peaceful’ protests, to the debt ceiling soap opera.
And every one of these emboldens America’s adversaries.
Many of us are old enough to remember a time when such things were unthinkable, when America’s reputation for strength was unquestionable.
But these days, a major, national humiliation is just another Tuesday afternoon in the Land of the Free."
31. "Here’s the hard truth about experience as well. Some people just have better experience than others. If you worked for a company from seed to IPO, you’ve got a better story to tell than someone who hasn’t seen an exit yet. If you’re a partner, you can generally speak more to what your firm looks for than if you’re the associate.
If someone is trying hard to learn about the fundraising market, not just “any” investor will do. You ideally want someone who has seen a couple of cycles and has some sway in their own firm."
https://ceonyc.substack.com/p/why-most-startup-events-suck-for
32. Slava Ukraini!
"As to what happens next, even seasoned pundits are kept guessing. For my part, I would expect more Ukrainian attacks intended to shape the battlefield – causing the Russians to divert resources and even commit their reserves. This they have already partially done, moving several VDV (Airborne) units, which were part of their operational reserve, to Bakhmut in the last few days.
If pushed to guess, I would say that the Ukrainains have decided to strike decisively in Donbas first with Bakhmut being their primary objective, before launching an attack to breach Russian positions in Melitipol or even Mariupol."
Lessons from a Road Warrior: My Routine for Surviving Jet Lag
For those who know me, they know that I'm pretty much on the road all the time. I do international travel at least 50% of the year which is a big decrease from the 80%+ when I was at Yahoo!. I get asked all the time: how do you get over jet lag?
Doing this intense international travel for over 20 years now you have to develop a process and routine, especially as you get older when you don’t have as much gumption and energy as you used to. I clearly love the adventure of travel and international business. It’s energizing. But the jet lag especially when you cross so many time zones coming from California to Asia or to Europe and the MENA region is brutal.
So here is what I do. As always, trying to get a good night's rest prior to flight is important. I almost always fast on the airplane, the food on the airplane tends to be super salty and not so good for you anyways. Fasting has been shown to help with time zone adjustments too.
I also make sure I am hydrated and try to have a full water bottle (Yeti of course) of water mixed with trace minerals and LMNT which is a powdered mineral & salt mix that tastes pretty good. It’s easy to get dehydrated on the flight so drinking lots of this water is helpful.
When I board the plane, I set my time to the time zone of the destination and force myself to adjust on the plane. If it’s night time there, I sleep. If it’s daytime over there during the flight, I force myself to stay awake during the entire flight. This is how I get so much reading done.
When I land, if it’s sunny outside, you have to get as much sunlight as possible. And it’s why I try to get there one day early so I can walk around. And have lots of water with trade minerals and LMNT. You will feel much better.
I also try to do some weight exercise or lots of walking. I try to go easy on cardio on the first day or two. Weights are more important here.
No naps at all as much as you feel tired. I usually try to take a very hot shower or even better, take a nice hot bath or sauna which helps your body’s circulation after a flight. You have to force yourself to stay up all day till 10 or 11 pm. Melatonin is key to helping you sleep through the night.
And in the morning, take a cold hard shower which wakes you up and gives you a lot of mental clarity.
That’s my travel routine, a process I’ve tried and tested over the last 2 decades of intense work travel. I hope you find this as helpful as it’s been for me.
Beauty Comes from Pain: My Life in Silicon Valley
I have been a long time fan and follower of the science fiction world of Warhammer 40k since i was a child. It’s a dark future world of never ending war that features the beleaguered Imperium of Man. One of the most interesting protagonists are the Blood Angel Space Marine Chapters. Great defenders and exemplars of humanity. Yes, I know, it’s totally random and nerdy. But many of the stories are a work of art. You can learn from stories. One of the Blood Angels talks about his existence.
“They tell me you have some art. So imagine, every time you pick up a quill, you find yourself in the presence of the greatest writer who ever lived. A creator so peerless and immaculate that anything you produce, by contrast, must appear to you shabby and unworthy. And everytime you try to emulate that art, to mimic it, you must always fall short, because only one soul in all creation can possibly be so perfect…..
You are trapped, pursuing your objective, knowing you must fail, and every time, no matter what you do, the evidence of your shortcomings will be right in front of you. But you venerate the artistry, all the same. More than that–you love it. And thus you are torn. Shame, because you can never ascend the pinnacle. Adoration, because you see it for what it is. A kind of unreality. (Source: Sanguinis: The Great Angel by Chris Wraight)
It’s an incredible passage and describes exactly how I feel being in Silicon Valley. Surrounded by incredibly brilliant investors and startup operators. They provide a model and ideal for you. Yet, while continually striving, working and learning, you are always falling short of the ideal around. Torn. You feel like a complete loser all the time. This is my life.
While in any other place in the world I’d be considered on top of my game, here I’m not even rating myself tenth best. So the game goes on and I continue to work my ass off, struggle and push myself toward these probably unrealistic ideas and goals.
But no pain, no gain. Or as the Blood Angels remark more beautifully: “Transfiguration only comes through suffering.” Transfiguration is defined as: a complete change of form or appearance into a more beautiful or spiritual state.
If you are going to suffer and pursue something in life, let it be for something great and beautiful.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads June 4th, 2023
“A man's worth is no greater than the worth of his ambitions.” – Marcus Aurelius.
Great profile on my friend and fellow investor Sheel. Probably one of the best seed stage Fintech investors on the planet.
https://meridian.mercury.com/sheel-mohnot
2. My favorite new influencer. Justin Waller. He is absolutely right that the trades and blue collar are coming back.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6WS3Uzx0uE
3. "While it is undeniable that demographics are one of the most profound constraints that influences geopolitics, demographics are not destiny. If demographics were all that mattered to great power politics, then the ancient Greek city states would not have stood a chance against the collective might of the Persian Empire which ruled over 44% of humanity at the time. History is rife with examples of how the demographic underdog, through superior tactics, technology, and morale, can decisively beat geopolitical rivals.
However, demographics are not destiny because power on the world stage is relative.A nation with a rapidly shrinking demography may experience a subsequent hit to its absolute power, but this is irrelevant if its peer rivals suffer from even worse demographic crises.
If a power controls the key nodes of global commerce and manages to monopolize the extraction of vital raw materials, it might be able to fortify, and even enhance, its geopolitical position despite sub-optimal demographics.
This is why the growing coordination between Russia, China, and Iran across Eurasia is a trend to carefully watch. U.S. power is no longer omnipotent, and the U.S. is struggling to shift its strategy from counterinsurgency back to traditional great power competition. There is a window for revisionist nations to make power plays.
That is not to say the moves will be successful. That remains to be seen. After all, the U.S. and other nations across Eurasia also have hands with which to play the game of great power politics. What's important to realize is these things take time, and only time will truly reveal what lies ahead."
https://www.shatterpointsgeopolitics.com/p/are-demographics-destiny
4. "Startups are hard. Doing it part-time makes it 10x harder. If possible, figure out a path to being full-time as quick as possible and improve the chance of success."
https://davidcummings.org/2023/05/26/side-hustle-to-full-hustle/
5. "And this is why I’m so bullish on doing things like living in another country. Not a vacation. Not a “trip".” Just going somewhere to live. It doesn’t matter if you do it later in life or fit in into your 30s like I did. It’s a way of tapping into a deeper and more relaxed state of being that many of us never have time to experience.
You might wander around as I did for a few weeks and notice that the thoughts from back home start to dissolve. For the first time, you will experience a state which feels calm and peaceful. You will walk into a grocery store and be amazed at all the new fruits you’ve never seen. You will start to become curious about the world. You might even spontaneously start crying in a park that has trees from all over the world because you are filled with love and joy."
https://boundless.substack.com/p/go-wander-abroad-ideally-224
6. "Like any asset, sports teams trade on supply and demand, and demand is a function of the number of uber-wealthy people desperate for relevance. A sports franchise is the most conspicuous consumption imaginable. A nice car and a house mean you’re prosperous. A plane makes you interesting. Owning a sports team cements you as fucking fascinating.
Just as crypto and SPACs, for a short time, were driven by Greater Fool Theory, sports teams are driven by Greater Fear of Death Theory. A Lamborghini impresses the valet; a sports team impresses Kim. And there are a lot of wealthy men arriving at the realization that biology is unimpressed by their money. So they spend it on their last meal of sorts: a sports team."
https://www.profgalloway.com/goals/
7. "The free world depends on U.S. leadership—as it has since the end of World War II. But Mr. Kissinger is worried. “We have no grand strategic view,” he says of the U.S. “So every strategic decision has to be wrested out of a body politic that does not organically think in these categories.” When the U.S. does adopt a strategy, it has a tendency to “go into it on the basis of overreaching moral principles, which we then apply to every country in the world with equal validity.”
America has its strengths. When challenged, “the mobilization of resources to resist the challenge is comparatively easy.” But threats are “interpreted in terms of physical conflict. So until such conflict approaches, it’s harder to mobilize. And so to act on the basis of assessment and conjecture is harder in America than in comparable countries.
Mr. Kissinger leaves no doubt that he believes in a Pax Americana and in the need “to defend the areas of the world essential for American and democratic survival.” But the ability to “execute it politically,” he says, “has declined sharply, and that is our overriding problem now.”
8. This was a good interview. Lots of stuff going on in the MENA region.
Wish more Americans travelled, we can learn alot from what the UAE gov't is doing to make themselves competitive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QtFFgPcNjoc&t=2014s
9. "In the past, we’ve had two catalysts that tend to produce the opportunity to create new consumer startups at scale.
One was the emergence of a new platform, like smartphones or social media, that brought new capabilities to market and allowed entrepreneurs to either create net-new experiences or create experiences optimized for those platforms.
The second catalyst has been the emergence of newer behaviors, including one-to-many social audio, creating and consuming short-form video on mobile devices, and augmented reality experiences on mobile phones. Sometimes these new platforms come with new distribution channels that can turbocharge growth, which makes the platforms even more attractive.
Right now, it doesn’t feel like we have a large-scale new platform or enduring emergent behavior that can provide a tailwind for a new consumer company."
https://chudson.substack.com/p/will-we-ever-see-another-renaissance
10. "Some people will try to embrace this new technology and others will run in fear. History suggests that embracing the technology will be the right move, but it still makes people uncomfortable because of the uncertainty involved.
Maybe humans augmented with a computer in their brain can change things though.
Artificial intelligence is a data game. The more access to data, supposedly the better the outcomes you will get. One of the most unique data sets in the world is the information that is stored in our brains. It is nearly impossible to copy that database. You would have a hard time porting that information from one human brain to another.
But imagine overlaying the human brain with artificial intelligence — the possibilities are endless."
https://pomp.substack.com/p/elon-musk-and-the-intelligence-arms
11. Lots of entrepreneurial wisdom here. Worth reading the whole thing.
"I’ve worked with smart, well-known people who turned out to be low integrity people.
And I kinda knew it from the beginning but I forgave them because I was trying to learn and accelerate my career. That’s a mega mistake and is really leading from a place of fear.
My advice to myself would be lead from a place of abundance, not fear. You don’t need to work with low integrity people. You have your pick of the litter.
I’d rather less customers but better customers
I’d rather a co-founder who lifts me up than brings me down.
It isn’t worth it. There are enough opportunities that you do not need to work with people you do not think are easy."
https://latecheckout.substack.com/p/a-letter-to-my-20-year-old-self
12. "What’s most interesting about a thesis is that it creates lines beyond which the burden of proof is higher to break your proposed rules. Interestingly, while we’ll mostly adhere to this thesis, when you do deviate it’s perhaps because you have greater conviction. Interestingly these deviations often lead to outsized returns.
I was speaking to my friend Carl, a partner at Swedish firm Creandum recently, and he mentioned how they do not invest in LatAm, yet the few times they had were into unicorn startups. They “didn’t do it,” yet when they had it proved wildly successful.
The reason, I believe, is because the burden of proof for deviation, or drawing outside the lines, is higher. As such you probably do more homework, get more comfort, and have higher belief when you do break the rules that it’s all worth doing. As such, we have a thesis almost insofar as we can break it to find the irreverent parts of ourselves."
https://ideas.scotthartley.com/p/table-stakes-economy
13. "There will be nothing lovely about what the Ukrainian armed forces will need to do in the coming weeks and months. Success will demand an optimal blend of Ukrainian physical, moral and intellectual capacity to maximise its fighting power against Russia.
But their military offensives, along with the myriad of military, intelligence, information and diplomatic activities that will accompany them, are essential to Ukraine’s ultimate victory."
https://mickryan.substack.com/p/the-ukrainian-offensives-are-near
14. "With the ideological goal of a multi-polar world, the resources and intention to wage a technological gray war, and a desire to get an edge through espionage, it’s clear that there is an ongoing Cold War with China.
There is something left to be desired when it comes to alliance building, but that’s a grand strategy project that’s not going to be sorted out in a couple of years. Multiple generations of politicians and diplomats will have to create a Western web of alliances that can hold its own against the centralized powers of the Chinese Communist Party led by Xi Jinping."
https://sss.substack.com/p/knots-of-war
15. "Assuming that the Belgorod raid is aimed at forcing the Russians to divert more forces to defend its own territory, it is another piece of evidence that the major part of the Ukrainian counteroffensive is still a ways a way (in other words that we are still in the shaping stage of the offensive—with the Belgorod Raid an example of a shaping operation).
It would take Russia time to switch forces to the border areas—and Ukraine would want time to launch more raids to persuade them to do it and to give the Russians time to redeploy.
So the raid was probably a sign that the major part of the counteroffensive is still a ways a way—otherwise why do it?"
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-30
16. "What I can tell with certainty is that for the vast majority of people, life does not get better with time. In fact, it gets worse.
Their bodies grow older, they put on weight, their income doesn’t rise much, and the stress from their jobs shows on their face.
Life does not get better unless you make it better. If you are not working to actively make life better, it will only get worse."
https://lifemathmoney.com/does-life-get-better-with-time-where-are-you-headed-in-10-years/
17. "Non-venture backable software companies could explode. If the price of software drops dramatically, that means we will get more software. Most likely that means more fragmented software markets, and that means perhaps we see a lot of $15M revenue software companies with 5 employees and 30% net margins that can’t grow at venture scale."
https://investinginai.substack.com/p/will-ai-kill-vertical-saas
18. What a stupid thing. No phone case being the ultimate flex. Not for me.
"But while some may associate the concept with fine tailoring, a rejection of logomania, or cashmere sweaters from the Row that will set you back over $1000, there’s one quietly trending stealth wealth signifier that, technically, millions of people could adopt right now: stripping the case off your smartphone.
The message here is obvious: no case, no problem, because I can afford to replace it."
https://time.com/6280905/iphone-no-case-rich-people/
19. We absolutely need to be building back up our military industrial base in America. ASAP.
"Back then, the U.S. had 86 military ammunition plants as part of an industrial mobilization designed to meet wartime ammunition needs. Over the decades, the number of facilities dwindled. Today, the Pentagon has just five so-called “government-owned, contractor-operated” plants that supply the military with most of its conventional ammunition, propellants and explosives.
General Dynamics has been enhancing recruitment efforts in anticipation of additional artillery orders for the Scranton plant."
https://time.com/6252541/inside-the-us-army-plant-making-artillery-shells-for-ukraine/
20. Logistics and supply chain are critical pieces of winning wars.
"To understand how the U.S. and its allies are delivering this arsenal, TIME spent months speaking with dozens of people in the U.S. and Europe involved in planning, manufacturing, and distributing military aid for Ukraine.
Those conversations, as well as visits to three states and three countries to observe different elements of the effort, revealed an operation that has overcome many of the challenges posed by supply-chain issues, diminished manufacturing capabilities, and international logistics to get Ukraine what it needs.
But it remains an open question whether the mission can be executed quickly enough to ensure success on the battlefield."
https://time.com/6274688/arming-ukraine-counteroffensive/
21. "Examining the blue whale's life cycle and Redstone's corporate empire, a pattern emerges—one that mirrors the laws of nature and the stark realities of power. The decomposing bodies of these behemoths, one from the natural world and the other from the realm of industry, essentially become a feast for scavengers, whether they be marine critters or high-flying execs.
However, the repercussions diverge: The blue whale's death provides valuable nutrition and contributes to the rich biodiversity of marine life, while Redstone's personal and corporate value mostly ends up captured by a small group of middle managers who contribute nothing.
These stories serve a dual purpose. They're sober reminders of certain immutable truths of existence. The blue whale eventually meets its end, transforming into a charcuterie board for deep-sea scavengers. Similarly, the power and wealth of a billionaire like Redstone ultimately dwindles, leaving behind remnants that attract a flock of opportunists."
https://every.to/napkin-math/a-note-on-power
22. "That’s what Toffler missed. The future came and it didn’t shock us with its complexity. They simplified everything so we can manage by swiping left or right, or just clicking on a button.
It’s “information underload” nowadays—and huge corporations work to deliver it. They ensure that our digital lives have no shocks or surprises. Their algorithms are designed to deliver today something almost identical to what they gave us yesterday. And tomorrow will be no different.
As a result, the future has fallen from view, replaced by a sense of stasis. And so has the past, which ought to be a resource but has become so weightless that it might as well not exist at all. All this is causing real sicknesses, and we don’t need to invent new names for them. They’ve been around a while, only now they’re much worse and afflicting more people.
In a situation like this, we ought to reverse Alvin Toffler’s advice. We need more change, not less. And it ought to be centered on the areas of greatest numbness and disconnectedness. I’m talking about the culture itself, not the technology."
https://tedgioia.substack.com/p/in-1970-alvin-toffler-predicted-the
23. This is worth watching. Jensen Huang of Nvidia's commencement speech at NTU in Taiwan.
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7068599441879953408/
24. Malmo, Sweden is a very cool town. I will need to find some time to re-visit it after a 12 year hiatus.
25. Big fan of this guy. I agree with 90% of what he says. Justin Waller is the man.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xG7oQoo9YpA
26. "Any reasonable assessment of Xi's personality and China's own stated goals to become the world's preeminent power suggest not.
But the piece of the puzzle that really should worry us is that China will increasingly have the military to go far beyond Taiwan. As a matter of pure logic, this does not strictly mean they will, but that is the only prudent bet.
The upshot of this is that Washington, Tokyo and their allies should be prepared to defend Taiwan, with the goal of deterring Beijing from attacking by demonstrating that its efforts to subordinate the island would be too likely to fail.
If Beijing cannot seize the island, its forces will still be essentially constrained behind the island chain formed by the Japanese archipelago, Taiwan and the Philippines. In this context, Beijing will be compelled to negotiate the terms of its further rise on grounds tolerable to the rest of us."
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-s-military-buildup-shows-its-ambitions-go-well-beyond-Taiwan
27. "If China’s economy is to withstand a military conflict with Taiwan, and the inevitable sanctions that such an attack would trigger, it needs to ensure a stable supply of energy. That means fuel for the economy, as well as for the citizens who power it.
Ensuring that China’s population has enough food has plagued every leader since the imperial dynasties. The country is home to one-fifth of the world’s population but only 7% of its arable land and as the population has urbanised, diets have shifted and the number of farmers has declined.
That has left China increasingly reliant on imports to fill its 1.4 billion stomachs. If, in the event of a conflict with Taiwan, China enters a wartime economy, then ensuring a stable food supply will be vital for China’s leaders."
28. "While the roles he has chosen for his acting return are familiar, he’s approaching the work from a whole new vantage point. After an early career that saw him take on movie after sitcom after reality show—always grinding—and a decade-plus of frenzied tabloid attention, Kutcher is settled now. Free. He’s married to an old friend who became a life partner, and he’s enjoying fatherhood.
Kutcher is very much financially independent, too, thanks in no small part to his wildly successful second career in venture-capital investing.
His friend and fellow venture investor Josh Kushner vouches for Kutcher’s skill at assessing opportunities. “Some are surprised that Ashton is good at this, because he has another job that is completely different,” says Kushner. “The reason why he is an exceptional investor is no different than why other people are. He is deeply creative and an extraordinary product thinker.”
Kutcher’s goal in the VC space is simple: as he puts it, “to find cool shit and solve big problems.” The problems change—that’s what keeps it interesting, even as the market gets crowded and good deals get harder to find. Right now, Kutcher has two big themes on his mind: sustainability and the paradigm-shifting potential of AI. Finding the right innovators and disrupters to bet on isn’t easy, but Kutcher’s been right before. On a grand scale, too. And not just with Uber and Airbnb. Spotify. Pinterest. Warby Parker. Those, too."
The Battle of Midway: Heroism in War
The pacific war in WW2 was one of the most horrific campaigns fought. But one of the most critical battles was that of Midway where the whole course of the war was at stake with the American west coast at risk. This was the turning point as Japan was pretty much winning every battle till then. Up that moment the Japanese navy was thought to be unstoppable and the US Navy wildly overmatched skill-wise and majorly outnumbered.
The Americans launched an audacious trap which resulted in the sinking of 4 Japanese carriers, buying America time to ramp up their industrial base and military for war.
The US Navy suffered tremendous losses and in this specific battle they lost half of their pilots doing it. The war defined America at its best.
There is a scene in the Roland Emmerich movie of Midway that I found indicative.
One of the officers Dick Best, is trying to convince his copilot to get back in a plane after a hellacious bombing run on the Japanese carriers.
“You’ll remember this moment for the rest of your life. If you know you came through for the people counting on you, you will be able to face anything. We’ve come this far, don’t make me go out there without you.”
These men literally turned the tide of the war in the Pacific. They held the line and bought time for America. True heroes.
We should all take heart from their courage and heroism and try to put it into every little thing that we do in life. We should honor their sacrifice and be a worthy legacy for them.
Top Gun Maverick: Lessons in Self Sacrifice & Doing the Right Thing
I obviously loved this movie. Watched it like 50 times at least. There is a great scene in the beginning of the movie when Maverick decides to take one last flight of the hypersonic plane ahead of an Admiral showing up. This is to make the Mach 10 grade so the program is not canceled.
As he is taxing up the runway, His colleague asks him: “it’s not too late to stop, you know what happens to you if you go through with this.”
Maverick replies: “I know what happens to everyone if I don’t”. Basically everyone else loses their job if the program gets shut down. He is willing to risk his career for others.
Yes, this is just a movie. But think about the workplace or political world in our modern life. How few people would be willing to risk their careers, let alone their lives for someone else. I’d throw myself in this. As a man, I hope I will do the right thing. But you won’t really know until that moment.
We’ve been so lucky to live in the prosperous world that we are in that we have not been put in these situations. And also where the stakes are relatively low. We’ve not had to exercise this “muscle”. Instead we have low stakes, lots of virtue signaling and plenty of cowardice around us. That’s why “ghosting” is a thing now. It’s such a weak move when you disappear without closing things off because you don’t want to have the difficult conversation.
But the world is changing. And we’re going to be put in a hard place where tough decisions will come fast and hard. And doing the “right thing” comes at deep personal costs. Even more so than before.
I read about some Russians who left their country & family to join the Ukrainian Armed forces to fight against the barbaric invading Russian army. What bravery and what honor! Especially the former Gazprom executive who gave up a cushy life to fight as seen here: https://www.reuters.com/world/im-not-afraid-says-ex-gazprombank-executive-who-defected-ukraine-2022-04-28/.
If only all of us would have the guts to do a shade of this in our everyday life. It’s something I think about and aspire to every single day. It’s the only way to make the world better for each other.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads May 28th, 2023
"For the great doesn't happen through impulse alone, and is a succession of little things that are brought together."--Vincent Van Gogh
These are some smart guys. Every young and old man needs to watch this. I wish I learned some of this much earlier in my life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lx83bNO00R8
2. "Since 2016, the average monthly burn rate difference between successful and unsuccessful companies has been fairly small: $59,333 for successful graduates vs. $47,365 for companies that failed to graduate.
This suggests that the more important thing is how the money is spent and what it produces than how much is spent overall. The job of a pre-seed founder is to turn investor dollars into insights that get the company closer to finding product-market fit."
https://chudson.substack.com/p/finding-the-right-burn-rate-for-pre
3. This looks good. Bit dystopian but good Sci-Fi.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXiFamc5bYI
4. "Hype is good for innovation: it attracts capital, draws talent, and raises awareness from prospective customers. But inevitably expectations get out of touch with reality and the hype bursts. What happens next depends on user adoption or, put differently, the technology finding product market fit.
For early stage investors, success isn't about predicting the future of how technology evolves. Rather it’s about finding signs of a clear market need (that may appear nascent or even solved by existing players) and backing teams who can capitalize on these needs. In short, when it comes to returns, product-market-fit eats hype for lunch."
https://1984.substack.com/p/hype-the-enemy-of-early-stage-returns
5. "U.S. intelligence agencies have long tracked Beijing’s clandestine attempts at political influence inside the United States.
And they don’t like what they see. One former CIA analyst put it bluntly: Beijing’s agents in this country aim “to turn Americans against their own government’s interests and their society’s interests.”
https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-china-built-an-army-of-influence-agents-in-the-us
6. "Bottom line: The discussion we should be having in the United States and among our allies is about the imperative to rebuild our capacity. Simply reallocating assets from one theater to the other solves nothing. It fails to address the structural vulnerability that remains. The expansion of our defense-industrial base is the answer for another reason: During the last 20 years of operations in Afghanistan and in the Middle East, our logistical supply lines were secure.
But in the environment of actual and potential great-power conflict that we inhabit today, we must assume that our logistical chains will be threatened, making systemic redundancies for weapons stocks and ammunition imperative.
Today we have a non-NATO force grinding down Russian land forces on non-NATO territory — all Ukraine needs is weapons and money to buy us more time to rearm. In the process, the Ukrainian military is in effect dismantling the two-frontier crisis, while Beijing watches carefully whether we have the political will to complete the job.
The starting point for any grand strategy in our era of great-power competition is an acknowledgement that the European and Asian theaters are connected, and that Ukraine and Taiwan are not an either/or proposition."
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/05/ukraine-vs-taiwan-americas-defeatist-pointless-debate/
7. "With Nuclear weapons your can destroy cities from the comfort of your own home. Russia and the United States have thousands of them. In WW1 If you were a not obligated by treaty to join the war you could be incentivized by land gains. If you participate in WW3 in a meaningful way, the only thing you’re going to gain is an extra ICBM.
The potential to get nuked will disincentivize all countries that are not bound by treaty from joining in. Some countries would even hugely benefit from not participating and watching the involved parties destroy each other (what the US did in WW1 lol)."
https://bowtiedhitman.substack.com/p/ww3-will-not-happen
8. Valuable conversation here. Pretty agree with many of these thoughts here. Worth listening to if you are a startup founder or investor.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oc5tHbEK0IQ
9. I wish the so-called Realists actually understood how NATO actually works. This is a good counter to the BS that NATO caused Russia to invade Ukraine. Russian propaganda and the Vatnik enablers like Sachs, Sacks, & Mearsheimer among others.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rh4QU7hxKVg
10. Maximum bullish on Japan. Macro outlook is very good.
"All said, the ability and willingness of Japan’s private sector -households and corporations- to take risks is going up, and public policy remains steadfast in its commitment to promote it; and -in contrast to fellow G7 leaders- PM Kishida and BoJ Governor Ueda are more worried about tightening pre-maturely than about needing to be conservative.
Clear-speak: after more than thirty years, a positive break-out above the historic “Bubble Peak” of 40,000 on the NIKKEI stock index is finally becoming a realistic prospect over the next 15-18 months."
https://japanoptimist.substack.com/p/were-all-bullish-japan-now
11. "Bringing all these factors together results in higher churn rates and reduced consumption revenue that is worse than anticipated. Record high downgrades and cancellations translates into even lower growth rates. Premature increased customer growth plus premature downgrades and cancellations paint an incorrect picture.
Startups would do well to take their historical gross and net renewal rates applied to their core business and project out potential scenarios. Core growth plus traditional renewal rates will likely result in reaccelerating growth in the near future.
The good news: once this painful series of adjustments works its way through the system and we’re at the new normal, growth rates will improve. Many startups have strong business models delivering tremendous value to their customers. The lack of growth is masked by remnants of one-time extra growth and one-time extra churn. Higher, renewed growth is on the horizon."
https://davidcummings.org/2023/05/20/many-startups-will-reaccelerate-growth
12. "Russia was and is too weak to have ever conquered even half of Ukraine, let alone achieve the kind of maximalist goals that Putin possessed, and we see now that the Russian economy cannot even produce the kinds of weaponry needed to hold on to 18% of the country. It was why I thought if Putin had any idea of the situation he was in, he would have tried to back out back at the start."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-29
13. Love Packy's newsletter. This was a good, optimistic and interesting interview.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOfWnBcBdPY
14. Always better to assume incompetence not malevolence. China's Belt & Road Initiative is a mess. I ascribe to this view.
https://twitter.com/nils_gilman/status/1659892961801564160
15. "In speaking with many startups and people on the buy side of technology, it feels like things are changing. More customers seem to want fewer things - fewer vendors, less complexity, and better ROI for their software spend. I think internal cost-cutting initiatives are driving some of this desire to revisit the benefits of best-of-breed products versus bundles.
In addition to the cost-cutting pressure, the complexity of managing multiple best-of-breed products is starting to create challenges for customers, many of whom have smaller teams due to layoffs or hiring freezes. In some cases, I’m seeing the pendulum swing back toward having a single system or vendor where everything works over assembling one’s own collection of individual tools.
I am curious to see how this transition plays out. As someone who invests primarily in companies that do not yet have product-market fit, the un-bundled software world has been a great place to invest. You can build an MVP for a product of limited scope with a modest budget. Buyers were very willing to purchase point solutions from new vendors if those products could address the buyer’s pain points.
Moving back toward a world where buyers have a strong preference for do-it-all bundled products could upend all of this."
https://chudson.substack.com/p/the-rebundling-cycle-has-begun-in
16. "As with near-every technological innovation, AI will inspire job losses in the short run and then, over the long term, net job creation. Automation destroyed jobs on the factory floor, but at first we didn’t see the jobs that heated seats and car stereos would create.
There will be a plethora of new service providers in the streaming business that leverage AI. In addition, there is usually a “winner takes most” effect. A decent writer gets culled, a great writer earns more. In sum, AI won’t take your job, but someone who understands AI will.
Pro tip: While you’re on strike, let your Netflix queue grow and play with Notion AI."
https://www.profgalloway.com/struck/
17. I don't expect this to last but a recession could be pushed back a bit longer.
"As we’ve discussed repeatedly, consumer finances have been in remarkably good shape despite what weak sentiment may suggest. And robust demand for labor continues to fuel job creation. All of this represents massive tailwinds powering spending, which has been bolstering economic growth for months.
Just last week, San Francisco Fed researchers estimated consumers were still collectively sitting on $500 billion in excess savings — the extra cash consumers piled up since February 2020, thanks to a combination of government financial support and limited spending options during the pandemic."
https://www.tker.co/p/consumer-spending-resilient-finances-strong
18. WORD.
"No doubt Momoa misses his family, but he also recognizes this is the life he’s chosen. “I don’t get to see my kids right now for a very long time. I gotta share things with them,” he says, his rapid-fire speech pattern slowing way down.
“I’m doing everything that I want to do, everything that I’m designed to do. And you’ve got to do that. I want my children to know that and do that. I worked for a very long time when they were young doing shit I didn’t want to do to put food on the table.
And now? You should only work with the people you wanna work with. You should create with the people you wanna create with. And if you’re not, then you got one shot in this life—you gotta get the fuck out. Whatever situation you’re in, you gotta find your path, you know?”
https://www.menshealth.com/entertainment/a43530779/jason-momoa-fast-x-interview/
19. "If you could achieve whatever professional goals you’ve set out for yourself, but you couldn’t tell anyone that you’d achieved them, would you still want them? The question can help remove the noise of other’s opinions and center the desire that are uniquely your own.
The key to thick professional desires, in my mind, is to craft a personal definition of success that takes into account what you value and what the market values — in the words of theologian Frederick Buechner, to figure out “where your deep gladness and the world’s deep hunger meet.”
Some of that gladness may come from your working life. Some of it might come from what your job allows you to do when you’re not working. But getting clear on what you care about — independent of any particular job, title, or company — is a good place to start."
https://read.lukeburgis.com/p/how-to-craft-an-anti-mimetic-career
20. "The entitlements problem is all too real. But, there are ways out. First, people will simply work longer. They are already postponing retirement. Fidelity’s data shows that the percentage of its clients who have enough savings to cover their retirement expenses is down by five percentage points since before COVID, “to 78%”.
Not surprisingly, then, older people are returning to work or postponing retirement. Others are not retiring at all and instead creating a portfolio of cash and wealth-generating activities. Some will pay off; some won’t. But the trend is clear.
The over 55’s are now the fastest growing component of the labour force according to The Bureau of Labour Statistics. They write, “Among people age 75 years and older, the labor force is expected to grow by 96.5 percent over the next decade.” Employers are loving this for many reasons.
But, perhaps the single biggest reasons are 1.
These Boomers bring a much-desired old-fashioned work ethic into the workplace and 2. They bring a wealth of experience that money cannot otherwise buy. These older workers are not in it for just the money either.
They are seeking purpose, fulfilment and human connection. Employers find it easier to deliver on these requirements than it is to find more cash for higher wages."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/why-druckenmiller-and-the-pessimists
21. "I am not sure if there is a real takeaway or “so what” from this blog post. It’s an observation that, like many other technologists I know (the amazing Gary Laudermade a similar assertion recently which truly resonated), I am rather good at predicting how the future of technology will play out. However, because I can easily imagine this future, I believe it will happen very soon, while culture and institutions move slowly, and things end up playing out over decades.
As a friend told me: “entrepreneurs confuse the present with the future. Their conception of it is so realistic that they often think they’re already there.” Perhaps as my thoughts on AI are highlighting, I am now correcting for that in my investing behavior, if not in my fundamental optimism."
https://fabricegrinda.com/timing-is-everything/
22. "Momentum is building for the Arabs to be a force in the new world order that is emerging. Many in the Arab world believe that now is a golden opportunity for the Arabs to make their presence felt in the world. The Arabs are strategically, demographically, and geographically well positioned to emerge as an autonomous pole of global influence in the coming decades.
The Arab world is a swing player in the great power rivalry. The Arabs’ decisions about their own future strategic direction will help determine how the great power competition plays out and contribute to shaping the international and regional systems.
What we are experiencing today is nothing short of global regime change. We have already seen so many changes in the current decade – and it has only just started. The next few years are set to be the most eventful, and perhaps the most dangerous, since World War II. The evolution of global multipolarity did not start recently as a result of the vacuum left by those losing relative power.
It began during and after the Second World War when peoples in different regions of the world broke the shackles of colonialism. Momentum for change only accelerated after the 2008 global financial crisis. The transformative shift gained further traction with the pandemic and the Ukraine crisis."
23. "So beyond policies in the developed democracies aimed at forcing decoupling, a lot is just going to happen on its own, due to a combination of China’s increasingly unfriendly business climate and the increasingly obvious risk of assets in China vaporizing in the event of a war. And if I’m right about that, it will represent not a clean or sudden break with the past, but a continuation of a decoupling trend that has been in evidence for about a decade, for those who cared to look.
But wherever the investment goes, the clear fact is that the old world where China was a push-button, no-brainer destination for corporate investment is being swept away."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/decoupling-is-just-going-to-happen
24. "These regulations have indeed left scars. Entrepreneurs in sectors that include ride-hailing, video games, and especially online tutoring were left shell-shocked. But pain set in for sectors that went beyond those directly targeted by the state. A common sentiment from an entrepreneur goes along the lines of: "I would like to focus on building a business and working on my product; instead I'm being forced to become a political scientist to understand the direction of policy."
The major question today is whether these scars will persist or fade over the next few years. It's undeniable that a lot of entrepreneurs were angry about the crackdown; and there are many anecdotal reports of wealthy Chinese who have decided to move to Singapore. Beijing has shifted its tone since the end of 2022, saying the most soothing words about how much it loves private businesses. But who can blame entrepreneurs for feeling skeptical, after many of their creations were strangled by the state?
I think that one of China's essential problem is one of state overcapacity. Since imperial times, state officials would rarely hesitate to entirely restructure a peasant's relationship to her land. The Communist Party has had even fewer scruples.
I think that China stands out because state officials are often mesmerized by some strain of utopianism; but it has the unique capacity to pursue these visions harder than other states. And because it doesn't know when to give up, the Chinese people suffer peculiar disasters."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/interview-dan-wang-china-specialist
25. "Confidence that China's economy can rebound from Covid restrictions is untethered to economic realities, Rockefeller International chair Ruchir Sharma wrote in the Financial Times.
"Something is rotten in the Chinese economy, but don't expect Wall Street analysts to tell you about it," he said, listing several indicators that point to underlying weakness.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-economy-turned-rotten-reopening-232901546.html
26. Not sure what to think here. I'm biased & pro-USA & Ukraine here, so see nothing wrong with this (except for risking Nuclear war due to our clumsiness).
"Based on its actions, the US strategy in this war (see “America Needs Enemies” for more) is focused on regaining the global dominance it had after the end of the Cold War, with an understanding that it won’t be squandered on policing peripheral disputes (the Middle East, Afghanistan, terrorism, etc.). Instead, it will be focused on boxing in Russia, China, and any other emerging power that seeks to challenge US control."
https://johnrobb.substack.com/p/the-end-of-the-western-swarm
27. Big relevant topic. Is De-Dollarization happening? I think it's a long way off but inevitable the way we are running things.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xTwwNoh0E6Q
28. Hmmm.....this explains alot of the weird geopolitical movement toward China that Saudi Arabia has made (besides MBS hating Biden personally)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4V2s5-lOKAA&list=RDCMUCsy9I56PY3IngCf_VGjunMQ&index=1
29. "If you look at startup exits (liquidity events), they’ve been practically non-existent for the past six quarters. These startups exiting and returning capital to VCs and their investors (LPs) is typically what funds the majority of capital being invested into the venture capital asset class. But who can blame them?
Valuations are down significantly since 2021. It also means valuations are down in other asset classes, which institutional LPs will likely need to sell in to make new venture investments.
None of this bodes well for emerging managers. It’s the riskiest sub-asset class within venture capital, of which is one of the riskiest asset classes. This makes it very impacted during funding pullbacks."
https://www.thespl.it/p/emerging-managers-are-not-ok
30. This is a great episode this time. The guys are really good when it comes to talking about the tech industry.
Health is Wealth: Never Forget This
I’ve always been blessed with having great health ever since I’ve been a child. I rarely get sick and if I do, it’s because I wore myself down from too much work and travel combined with crazy extreme weather. Add my regular biohacking and supplements, it’s very rare that I get sick. And naturally I tend to take this for granted until I get badly ill.
This happened to me in Q4, 2022, during a trip to Uzbekistan. I’d been on a whirlwind of travel the prior 5 months and also stressed from having made too many commitments of various projects, deals and initiatives. So when I got to Tashkent, with an overly packed schedule and an unusual drop in temperature I subsequently became incredibly ill, even losing my voice. My hosts there were incredibly gracious and kind, trying different home brews to try to heal me but what was needed was just plain rest and sleep which my schedule there did not allow for. This sickness dragged on when I returned to San Francisco, losing a whole week in bed. An awful Hacking cough, foggy brain and plain weakness throughout the body. Last time I felt this bad was when I got Covid earlier in 2022.
Now why do I raise this beyond just bitching and moaning? It’s a clear reminder of the importance of taking care of yourself physically. You can have money, you can have time but if you don’t have decent health, you can’t enjoy anything. I was so excited to visit Uzbekistan for the first time. I got to see the amazing Silk Road splendors of Bukhara and Samarkand, but I was in tremendous pain and in brain fog the entire time. It was pretty much the same as not being there frankly. I just did not get to enjoy the place as much as I would have liked.
Health is wealth. That is Rule 1. Never forget it or you will regret it. Take care of yourself and make sure you understand your limits. You will never get that time back.
The Blind Side: Lessons in Courage and Honor
An inspiring movie and book, it’s the story of Michael Oher, a kid who grew up on the wrong side of the tracks. But through happenstance, ends up being adopted by the wealthy Tuohy family who help him attain the education & opportunity to follow his dreams. It’s an incredible movie. The mother, Leigh Anne Tuohy played by Sandra Bullock, is a force of nature.
There is a scene when he is writing his last essay to get him his important grade to pass & he decides to write about Lord Tennyson's poem:
“Charge of the Light Brigade.: There’s is not to reason why. There's is but to do or die. Into the Valley of Death rode the 600.”
“Courage is a hard thing to figure. You can have courage based on a dumb idea or mistake. But you are not supposed to question adults, your coach or your teacher because they make the rules. Maybe they know best, maybe they don’t. It all depends on who you are and where you come from.
That is why courage is tricky. Should you always do what others tell you to do? Sometimes you don’t even know why you are doing something. I mean any fool can have courage. But honor, that is the real reason you do something or you don’t. It’s who you are or maybe who you want to be.
If you die trying to do something important then you have both honor and courage. And that’s pretty good. I think that’s what the writer was saying: that you should hope for courage and try for honor. And maybe pray that the people telling you what to do have some too.”
That’s pretty good stuff. And it’s a wonderful American story. Highly recommend the movie. It shows how one person can absolutely, positively change the trajectory of someone’s life. This should be an inspiration for us all.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads May 21st, 2023
"If you change the way you look at things, the things you look at change."--Wayne Dyer
"Although the coming Ukrainian offensive will do much to set expectations for the future trajectory of this war, the real challenge is thinking through what comes after. The offensive has consumed planning, but a sober-minded approach would recognize that supporting Ukraine will be a long-term effort.
It is time, then, for the West to start planning more actively for the future, beyond the coming offensive. History shows that wars are difficult to end and often go on well beyond the decisive phases of fighting, including as negotiations continue. For Ukraine and its Western backers, a working theory of victory must be premised on endurance, addressing Ukraine’s long-term force quality, capability, and sustainment needs.
The United States and Europe must make the necessary investments to support the war effort well beyond 2023, develop plans for successive operations —and avoid pinning their hopes on any single offensive effort."
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russia-war-beyond-ukraines-offensive
2. I got a lot out of this interview. Understanding talent and making good decisions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zsMvGZmW9MI
3. I'm gonna watch this. Arnold!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2AEI26LBpA
4. I agree, it’s a bad time to invest in real estate in Western Europe.
https://mailchi.mp/9cfa77a51b64/do-not-invest-in-real-estate-in-this-city?e=123a1c25c4
5. Hmm.....Seems like this will be a long war. But some possible scenarios.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JbiAyWBI0fE
6. Painful truths to listen to but this guy is one of the best Global Macro investors on the planet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMAm2S1M_IU
7. So happy to see this. Well done UK. #SlavaUkraini
"Overall, the Storm Shadow should give Ukraine a powerful new ability to hit key targets, including command nodes, supply dumps and bridges, deep behind the front lines.
As such, if Ukraine demonstrates the value of the Storm Shadow, and the precedent for supplying advanced long-range weapons is already set by it, more of the weapons from other operators, such as Italy, or even the very similar SCALP missile, as used by the French Armed Forces, could follow. This could also open the floodgates to other donations by other countries, especially those by the U.S., which sits on a massive stockpile of advanced standoff weapons.
It will be interesting to see not only how effective an advanced cruise missile might be in Ukrainian hands, but also whether it will now open the door to other long-range strike weapons also being approved for transfer to Ukraine. Regardless, which ever way it plays out, it is very bad news for Russia."
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraines-storm-shadow-missiles-are-a-big-problem-for-russia
8. "But for now, my view is that SaaS companies have a good chance to survive the shift to AI and come out of it even stronger — delivering more value to customers and doing it with a lower cost base by leveraging AI to increase productivity — IF they go all-in on AI now. That is a big IF, though.
When an asteroid hits, only the species most responsive to change will survive. Generative AI is an asteroid impact event for B2B software, but unlike most on-premise software companies in the 2000s, the SaaS leaders of today aren’t doomed. It all depends on how fast they can adapt."
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/generative-ai-asteroid-impact-event-b2bsoftware-christoph-janz
9. "China is essentially willing to patiently invest DECADES of painstaking effort to achieve its intelligence objectives. And that’s pretty normal for the Chinese; their leadership tends to establish clear goals and long-term strategic visions that often look 30+ years into the future. A single decade is nothing for them.
Now, China’s authoritarian government obviously has a mountain of reprehensible flaws, and they have no intention of changing for the better. But one thing’s for sure: they know how to play the long game… and use it to their advantage.
Contrast this with the US government, which at present cannot even plan beyond the next few weeks.
Quite simply they’re unwilling and/or unable to play the long game. And the country is worse off for it. The whole world is worse off for it.
This is why it makes so much sense to have a Plan B– something which requires long-term thinking."
https://www.sovereignman.com/trends/these-people-are-incapable-of-playing-the-long-game-147382/
10. "Not flying the aircraft first means not making operational changes that you normally would because you are fundraising, or believe you soon will be. It means running your business differently because you are trying to raise money.
As one VC said to me, “We don’t invest in perfect companies. We invest in companies where the upside is greater than the downside. I have invested in companies where the CRO, CTO, and CFO were all recently or in the midst of transition. The important thing is that we talk about the changes and understand them. We’re going to be investors for the next 5-10 years.”
What does that mean to me? If you, as CEO, think something needs to be done, then do it. Always fly the aircraft first."
11. "The main theories we have all seem to be largely in-line. A few things certainly messed it up a bit: 1) banks failing - delaying layoffs a tad, 2) changing of mortgage standards to prolong the inevitable, 3) slow impact of regulation change, 4) elongated decline as it relates to tech layoffs - usually faster and 5) the slow adjustments to tax payments on properties - taking longer than expected to roll through.
Other than those small time frame changes the message is the same: banks are going to be forced to consolidate. If you look at what the Fed is doing, there is no way to avoid more consolidation. The average person has no idea what it means to “insure deposits”. We have a grand total of two smartphone companies and no one cares.
They certainly won’t notice when we get to 3,000 banks instead of 4,5000 (rough numbers)."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/cpi-acceleration-phase-cycles-and
12. "But the greatest success of Ukraine’s frontal resistance has occurred behind the front, with the gradual build-up of an increasing large, well-trained, and well-armed operational reserve of combat units that could be held back from combat because the frontal forces proved sufficiently strong to stop Russian advances without need of large reinforcements.
It means that, for the first time since the start of the war, Ukraine’s war leaders can now take the initiative, instead of just repelling one Russian attack after another in different sectors of the very long front."
https://unherd.com/2023/05/ukraines-path-to-victory/
13. Solid profile on the impressive Netflix executive leading the charge of expansion across the globe.
She is affecting tastes and interests everywhere. Also shows the power of media in culture.
14. "But optimism pays more - both in money and life. We owe it to ourselves and others to be mindful of reality - when things are good, when things are bad, and to plan how to maintain and improve all of that. It’s something I have to work on too. But there are a lot of little things that can make our world beautiful."
https://kyla.substack.com/p/the-art-of-the-doomer
15. "So basically, whether LLMs are economically good or bad depends on what kind of information they figure out. If they find stuff that humans were never going to find, because the patterns were just too complex and subtle, then that’s good. But if they find stuff humans were going to find anyway, just a little bit faster, then that’s a waste. Again, we won’t really know til we try (and maybe not even then!)."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/generative-ai-and-the-finance-industry
16. I look forward to visiting Kharkiv one day in a victorious Ukraine. #SlavaUkraini
https://www.vox.com/c/world-politics/2023/5/10/23630754/russia-ukraine-war-kharkiv-city-transformed
17. I think people just hate flashy rich tech people in general. #HFGK
"Guo has a penchant for extremes. The centimillionaire (on paper) rose to Silicon Valley fame after co-founding Scale AI, a San Francisco–based startup valued in 2021 at $7.3 billion. She left the company back in 2018 “due to differences in product vision and road map,” she told Forbes. Since then, she has traveled the world, launched her own firm, Backend Capital, and in 2022 founded Passes.
Along the way, she’s gained fans and critics alike for her over-the-top antics—like the time she hosted an entire music festival for her birthday, complete with fire dancers and brand sponsors. Or when she tweeted a letter from her homeowners’ association scolding her for letting a rented lemur and snake slink around her luxury apartment during a Miami Hack Week party.
Her freewheeling lifestyle makes her one of tech’s most captivating figures, and a magnet for online vitriol—the kind most often reserved for female founders. As Guo put it in a tweet: “I go out once a week and am a party animal. Other male founders are constantly doing lines of cocaine, clubbing at 2 am, abusing adderall at work, but it’s fine, they’re brilliant!”
18. Scary new world here.
"Nearly all media can be faked, but now, with the help of AI, it can be manufactured easily. That distinction is essential. Until this year, we used to evaluate the integrity of media partly based on its complexity using the following formula:
--The more complex the media, the harder it was to manipulate (time, money, and skill),
--which meant that the more complex the media and obscure the topic, the less likely it was to be fake — from conversational videos to scientific papers.
--This complexity heuristic (a simple rule of thumb used in fast decision-making) doesn’t work anymore. In an AI-fueled world, everything digital can be faked."
https://johnrobb.substack.com/p/deepmedia
19. "Putin initially connected Ukraine to a dream of posthumous glory. But now he has no choice but to connect Ukraine to earthly politics, since he cares about retaining power to the end. To keep power, Putin must control all Russian armed forces, which is not the same thing as keeping them in Ukraine.
Those two things might well contradict: the recent spectacle of disunity around Bakhmut shows how. The better Ukraine does on the battlefield, the more they will contradict. More broadly, keeping power is not the same thing as pushing for victory in Ukraine. If Ukraine seems likely to win, Putin will seek another story of power. His propagandists are good at changing the subject."
https://snyder.substack.com/p/war-and-politics
20. "After bagging the role of a supposedly perfect human being, you could forgive another young actor for stunting on social – gym brags, red carpet flexes, on-set pranks, Comic Con selfies – but that’s not Poulter’s style. Instead his feeds are a regular stream of activism: standing up against bullying, sounding out economic insecurity and championing racial equality.
Although conscious of sounding “worthy”, he likes to be something of a human billboard for good causes, naming individuals like Alex Holmes, of the charity Anti-Bullying Pro, or Lavinya Stennett, of The Black Curriculum, as people “who are actually doing the real work and affecting change in society.”
Over a handful of conversations, at the game and afterwards, Poulter opened up about his next chapter."
https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/article/will-poulter-interview-2023
21. "My Twitter timeline is full of people preaching the profitability of “unsexy” businesses.
It makes sense — there’s a ton of profit in bringing modern strategy and operations to legacy services, and the target demographics are always clearly defined.
But I think there’s something to taking the exact opposite approach: creating products that feel novelty, fun, simple, and unnecessary.
People don’t need these products — but people feel like they need to share them with other people.
These products live outside of the latest AI, AR, and no-code crazes. They’re not hyper-optimized for profitability. They are often marketing “drops”. They don’t sell themselves — the ideas behind them are awesome enough to create conversations, both online and in-person, and that’s enough to drive conversions.
And most importantly, in an internet-enabled world, they spread like wildfire."
https://latecheckout.substack.com/p/making-products-that-spread-like
22. So much good life advice in this conversation. Kevin Kelly should be on the list of candidates for the most interesting man in the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZ3Y_rjKvIE
23. "AI assistants are the ultimate helicopter parent, bulldozing obstacles and the risk inherent in establishing new relationships. We are breeding a generation of asocial people who don’t know what it means to be rejected, forget a name, miss a flight, and find unexpected joy. AI, and mobile technology, have strip-mined a key component of what it means to be human, what it means to be a mammal.
Happiness is a function of your willingness to take an uncomfortable risk and have something wonderful … really wonderful … happen in person. Technology offers productivity and prosperity. However, joy is in the agency of others. The most important skills are forged, not taught."
https://www.profgalloway.com/ailone/
24. Important discussion on global macro. The USA is going off the cliff due to really bad policies in USD, weaponizing the dollar and awful overspending.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRPMHinrFKQ
25. "The economics of nightclubs and national banking systems have a lot in common.
Patronising a nightclub is a lot of fun. You get to listen to good music, hang out with your friends, and for some, find a mate. However, after all the fun is had, there is always a bill to pay — and sometimes it can be quite substantial. Absent an agreed upon set of rules on how the cost should be allocated, the conversation as to who pays and how much can get quite heated."
https://medium.com/@cryptohayes/the-denominator-536a8de34bf0
26. "It’s great to see more innovation in the non-dilutive SaaS financing space. Entrepreneurs would do well to consider all their financing options, and not just venture capital, when looking for ways to grow faster. Hopefully customer value financing catches on and becomes more popular."
https://davidcummings.org/2023/05/13/customer-value-saas-financing/
27. "Despite the uncertainty about the true meaning of these Ukrainian attacks around Bakhmut, I think one thing is certain. The attacks at Bakhmut show the Ukrainians are ready for a fight. And if they show the same creativity, determination, leadership and purpose they have throughout this war, the Russians are in a huge amount of trouble."
https://mickryan.substack.com/p/the-battle-of-bakhmut-9d8
28. Fascinating.
"The film’s remarkable success showed Blum the path forward: make a lot of low-budget horror films and hope a few break out. For this model, the goal is to produce 10 or more films a year with a budget in the $5m-range (cheap by Hollywood standards). Compare that to a major film studio, which puts $200m behind a few blockbusters every year.
Blum’s approach is similar to that of an angel investor who is trying to find the next startup unicorn. Instead of giving a single $500,000 check to one company, he cuts $10,000 checks and hands them out to dozens of intriguing founders.
But why horror? It is the best genre for fictional low-budget films. You don’t need special effects, because gritty and raw is actually scarier. You don’t need superstar talent, because an A-list actor can actually detract from the scariness (if you’re watching Tom Cruise, you’re thinking “wow, that’s Tom Cruise” and not “dude, get out of the house!”).
With a $200 million superhero or summer action film, you need to have CGI and A-list stars as table stakes.
One common theme was the importance of being stubborn in one’s taste and seeing it through to the final product. By setting clear financial constraints and offering big upside, Blumhouse gives its directors an opportunity to actually see their tastes through."
https://trungphan.substack.com/p/blumhouse-the-hollywood-horror-hit
29. Wow, what a story. This is a must read.
"When we make the effort of getting to know people at their core, we reduce the possibility of cheap mimetic interactions. Knowing someone at their core requires sharing and listening to a particular kind of experience: stories of deeply fulfilling action. Knowing and relating to these stories produces empathy and a greater understanding of human behavior.
A negative mimetic cycle is disrupted when two people, through empathy, stop seeing each other as rivals. Dave changed my way of thinking and my reactionary impulses by modeling something different—a core desire that is common to every person, but which often goes unfulfilled: to know and be known by others."
https://read.lukeburgis.com/p/my-life-saving-lesson-from-a-hitman
30. "In 2023 with few exceptions acquihires are dead as we knew them. The majority of typical acquirers (large and small) don’t have incremental headcount budget. Those who do, often believe they can hire from the open market without the hassle of an acquisition. Cash is at a premium so it’s not going to cap tables (preferred or common walk away from the deals with no dinero).
In fact, sometimes acquirers are asking for the remaining cash on hand from the startup in order to ‘zero out’ the salary burden they’re taking on [HW note: 99.9% of the time my answer is no fucking way]. And when they’re giving stock to existing shareholders instead of cash it’s at high 2021 valuations, buried below a preference stack."
31. "Now Italy’s newest billionaire is pursuing his passions, tinkering with plans to—as he puts it, “revolutionize”—businesses across a range of industries. Eighteen months after the sale, Iervolino has spent at least $200 million on everything from a soccer team and a cybersecurity firm to real estate and a media company that owns one of the country’s most storied magazines. He says he wants to focus on tech, with investments in several startups and venture capital funds.
Still, the vast majority of his wealth is liquid: Forbes estimates Iervolino is worth $1 billion, with more than two thirds of it held in cash and stocks.
"I really see the world split in two. There's positive people, who have passion and fury in their blood, those who make it. And then there are the pessimists, the techno-skeptics,” he says. “I'm always on the side of the optimists. I see a rosy future for young people and especially for Italy.”
32. We need to be watching this trend and it should not stop the US from managing the deficit and USD better (its been pretty shambolic as we have seen). But the USD is still the reserve currency for lack of anything better (at the moment).
"The numbers are still showing that the dollar is still the dominant currency,” Subacchi said.
Beijing will keep trying, and keep failing. The yuan’s not convertible, the government controls capital flows, and even its value is manipulated by Beijing. You can’t do business with IOUs, but you can always do business with a bushel of greenbacks.
“I think there will be incremental moves to make greater use of the yuan to denominate China’s trade with commodity-exporting countries,” Setser said. “And then I think China will discover that it is difficult to fully go much further and to really radically change the structure of how it settles its trade, because it still wants to sell to the U.S., still wants to sell to Europe. Its economy doesn’t balance without significant exports.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/05/12/dollar-dominance-global-trade-china-yuan-brics-currency/
33. "Every creator will distill their expertise and attract a school of students that resonate with their teaching style.
Creators will evolve and their following will evolve with them.
This eliminates saturation in the creator economy because life isn’t saturated – and we are all making the transition into the digital society."
https://thedankoe.com/generalists-are-taking-over-the-world-in-the-digital-golden-ages/
34. I like this concept of skill stacking.
https://thedankoe.com/the-1-million-dollar-skill-stack-learn-in-this-order/
35. "In a career spanning more than 50 years, Dalí produced a vast number of paintings, etchings, lithographs, and sculptures. But fake reproductions of his art constitute a larger market.
In the 1980s, during an art investment bubble, experts believe hundreds of thousands to millions of fake Dalís began to circulate, leading to $625m to $1B in sales of fake Dalí art in the US. Worldwide, fraudulent sales may have reached $3B.
The fraud led to prison sentences for unscrupulous art dealers and gallery owners, sunk the value of many authentic Dalí works, and continues to confound hobbyist art collectors — like Ewell’s client in Alabama — who often find out their family’s prized art is worthless."
https://thehustle.co/why-salvador-dali-is-the-most-faked-artist-in-the-world/
36. I'm bullish on Japan as they rise in the geopolitical landscape. Japan will be an important force for good in my opinion because of their high awareness of their troubled history.
"Kishida is preoccupied by more earthly issues. In Japan, he has launched a “new model of capitalism” to grow the middle class through redistributive policies. Overseas, he has set about revolutionizing the East Asian nation’s foreign relations: soothing historical grievances with South Korea, strengthening security alliances with the U.S. and others, and boosting defense spending by over 50%.
Buoyed by a White House eager for influential partners to check China’s growing clout, Kishida has set about turning the world’s No. 3 economy back into a global power with a military presence to match."
https://time.com/6278122/fumio-kishida-japan-prime-minister-interview-g7/
37. Excellent discussion here on the latest in culture wars and what’s happening in tech.
Don’t Be A Jerk to Service People: Being Kind Pays
I fly a lot. And in my travels, especially with flights, many inconveniences happen. You miss a connecting flight, they lose your luggage or you get bumped from a flight because they oversold it.
It’s irritating but it happens. Especially when you need your business clothes for an important meeting.
This happened to me when I was catching a connector to Tashkent last year when I was transiting through Istanbul. When I was about to board, one of the Turkish airline workers pulled me aside and said I was getting bumped because they oversold the flight. He was tired and looked nervous as he was dealing with 20 other pissed off passengers in my same situation.
He was shocked when I smiled and calmly told him it was totally fine. And that I totally understood the situation. All that mattered was they got me there the next day & sorted out my hotel. He said with relief: “In my 6 weeks at this station, I have never had any customer respond this way.”
What a sad state of humanity. And I tell this story not to virtue signal how nice or understanding I am (I am usually NOT in almost all other aspects of my life) but to make a point.
It almost never makes sense to get angry at a front desk worker.
Reason Number 1: it’s not their fault as they didn’t cause it.
Reason Number 2: they deserve your respect for the hard thankless job they do
Reason Number 3: they can potentially help you fix the situation, so why antagonize them?
And to conclude my little travel story: because I was nice to the guys, they not only got me on the flight but they also upgraded me to business class. Unlike the other passengers who yelled at them, and ultimately did not make the flight.
I’ve never trusted or liked people who were rude to service workers like waiters, receptionists, PAs or airline check-in people. It shows a complete lack of character when you act like an arrogant prick around so called lesser status people. Like they are masters lording it over servants back in the olden times. Just plain awful behavior.
The moral of the story: Be nice to frontline service people. It does not pay to be an As-hole to them. It’s bad karma and they can make things worse for you.
Your Enemies Keep You Young: Embracing Your Competitors and Challenges
I get told often that I look young for someone my age. My response is that it’s my intense rage that keeps me young. It’s actually not that far from the truth.
I’m a very black and white guy. You are either on my side or you are the enemy. There is no neutrality in my world view. If you are neutral then you will also be considered the enemy. I admit the last half decade of my life has definitely hardened me in many ways.
It’s not the healthiest attitude to live by but it is what it is. And I’ve been able to harness this to improve and drive myself forward to great personal benefit.
Your enemies, or in the more civilized world, competitors, are the whetstone to sharpen your blade on. So you should welcome this, despite the pain & challenges you face when you are battling against them. Pray for enemies, as that shows you might actually be fighting for something of worth. Having no enemies literally means you are fighting for nothing.
As the plains Native Americans saying goes:
“Make my enemy brave and strong, so that if defeated I will not be ashamed.”
Maybe even more importantly as this very excellent TheManMaker tweeted here https://twitter.com/TheManMakerx/status/1592196701120794624:
“Show me a man with no enemies,
And I'll show you a man who is not growing in his life.”
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads May 14th, 2023
"The art of life is to know how to enjoy a little and to endure very much."--William Hazlitt
“After the Kharkiv offensive, Russia kind of realized that defeat was possible - they could lose territory. I think that was a realization that Ukraine can do offensive operations,” he said. The fortifications are “an acknowledgement of the risk that Ukraine could make another breakthrough”.
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/COUNTEROFFENSIVE/mopakddwbpa/index.html
2. Useful guide to LPs for any new VC manager.
https://govclab.com/2023/04/27/lp-archetypes/
3. "The only reason the dollar was the reserve currency is because the USA dominated everything in the world. Today, the world is far more connected and integrated – regardless of fragmentations caused by pandemics and wars – and this means that a single country’s fiat currency is no longer the model. It may have been last century but, this century, we need a new model.
We need a model of money that is not dependent upon a single nation. A model of money that combines nations into a global currency. A model that creates a world of money. A model that embraces cryptocurrencies and fiat currencies. A world that brings CBDCs together with NFTs. A world that is both decentralised and centralised."
https://thefinanser.com/2023/05/is-the-dollar-disappearing
4. This guy is a badass. Ukraine's spymaster. I wish him great success in his mission of liberating Ukraine from Russia.
"Budanov was appointed to what became a crucial wartime intelligence role in August 2020 after having served a brief stint as deputy director of one of the departments of Ukraine’s foreign intelligence service. Before that, he was a HUR Spetsnaz or special forces commando dispatched behind enemy lines: Even now, he occasionally appears in selfies from the front, kitted out in full tactical gear, in what one senior HUR official said are no mere photo ops: “Budanov still takes part in special operations.”
5. This is completely true.
"Bragging about headcount was 1 of the most corrosive trends in startup land over the last many years"
https://twitter.com/asanwal/status/1654892559276154886
6. For anyone who wants to make their life better and happier. This is a great conversation with Derek Sivers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BaDQCjqUHU
7. "Of course, this is applicable to most things in startupland (and life).
Whether it’s selling a piece of software, earning a mentor, or signing that strategic partner, it’s a process, not a single event. Figure out the process, understand what’s needed for the next step, and work towards it.
Entrepreneurs would do well to sell hard on the next step, not the final sale."
https://davidcummings.org/2023/05/06/sell-hard-on-the-next-step-not-the-final-sale/
8. "In the end? You’ll probably see a few more of these smaller sized banks go under giving more and more power to the top 5-10 banks.
Specific issues you’ll now face: Harder to get any sort of debt. You’re looking at double digit interest rates for anything of size (think private equity and tons of corporate debt *not* named “Apple or Google”). Also. Anyone hoping that the government will issue “stimmies” again is a pipe dream.
If we go through another round of “printing” it’ll likely look like other developing countries where it is some sort of coupon specifically for food/energy/rent that is difficult to move into the consumer economy (huge difference vs. handing out $1,200 checks for people to buy Gucci or random meme coins).
Short Conclusion
More banks will go under as long as the Fed does not cut rates. We do not see them cutting rates in June. While there is a good chance they “pause” a rate cut is simply not in the cards without lower inflation readings. Expect rates to be flat at minimum and we’ll look at inflation numbers in April to confirm/deny that.
On that note, the US dollar is not going to die soon. If you look at Japan their debt to GDP is much worse than the USA and they are still surviving in the weird ponzi-nomics set up. The USA is only at 123% debt/gdp and as reference Singapore is 128% and Japan at 266%. The message? These things take time to play out, it isn’t a meme coin."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/president-powell-bank-failures-and
9. I really appreciate this excellent content here. Luke Belmar is the positive model most young males need.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=59NlyJm9nxw
10. "I know for many families, the appeal of bootstrapping is the promise of a better life: more freedom, money, time, and flexibility. But there is a cost (especially when your kids are young).
There's no guarantee that your bet will pay off, and you can't get that time with your kids back.
So consider this decision carefully, and make sure you and your partner are aligned."
https://justinjackson.ca/bootstrapping-with-kids
11. "To be clear, even an emerging manager on his or her first fund with no full-time employees will spend time on management tasks beyond investing. Other than investing one’s own capital as an angel investor, I don’t believe there’s a way to be a VC without management taking up some portion of your time."
https://chudson.substack.com/p/do-you-want-to-manage-or-do-you-want
12. "The moral corruption bred by indolence, luxury, and a long peace is an old theme in history. The concerns of Vegetius are shared by us today; like him, we look upon the state of military preparedness, and the contemporary social scene, with ever-increasing alarm.
Physical fitness levels in the youth have plummeted; social agendas have been preference to readiness and performance; and political leaders seem unconcerned that military recruitment levels have fallen to dangerously low levels.
The question is whether reforms can be instituted before the arrival of disaster, or whether, as human nature is ill-suited to the recognition of unarrived dangers, a cataclysm must take place before a people recovers its senses. It is a question that will be of the utmost significance for the United States in the coming years."
https://qcurtius.com/2023/05/06/vegetius-discusses-the-importance-of-the-martial-virtues/
13. "The private coaching industry is booming. Top college football players hire quarterback trainers who charge anywhere from $50-$250/hour for their services. Even adult recreational athletes — weekend warriors — have enlisted coaches to improve their times in the triathlon and marathon. Matthews, who declined to tell us his rates, works with an especially elite group.
But since starting his business in 2016, he has landed many of the world’s best basketball players, such as Domantas Sabonis, Skylar Diggins-Smith, and Anthony Davis, as well as numerous figures outside professional sports, from the cast of the Peacock TV show “Bel-Air”’ to musicians like Travis Barker and Drake.
Last year, Jordan Brand designed a player-exclusive shoe for Matthews, an indication of his top-tier status as a trainer.
His skills are more valuable than ever. NBA, WNBA, and NCAA teams have doubled down on long-range shooting, one of the most efficient ways to win, leading dozens of professional athletes to seek out Matthews as a coach."
https://thehustle.co/the-basketball-journeyman-who-became-a-shooting-coach-to-the-stars/
14. "If 2021 was the year of the hungry-hungry Unicorn, then going forward the lesson that founders could take away is that less is more. AI is already writing whole functions of code, debugging processes, and outlining hosting infrastructure. As the AI overlords and capital barons at the top duke it out, the technological advances trickle down and decrease the cost of doing anything: code, content, creativity, and everything in-between.
But the fear is that founders and funders alike will fail to appreciate the new paradigm. For a lot of ambitious people, they look at the big dogs playing a very different game, and believe they're playing the same game. So you get SaaS companies that can be great business and even good venture-backed businesses.
But they, instead, focus on raising billions at 100x ARR, chasing multi-billion dollar outcomes, only to find that those outcomes are out of reach, and their funding approach has made it unlikely that most people will benefit from what they've built."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/blaspheming-against-the-hype
15. This is incredibly instructive on how to spot talent and what to look for in startup founders. Worth watching.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sad3owRmB74&t=7s
16. "Now, it is up to the world to realize that China’s wars will not be fought by PLA soldiers. Their soldiers are already existing in our nations, towns, and societies, fighting for China at a minuscule cost of a real war. It is an invisible war that the world ignores as inconsequential."
https://chanakyaforum.com/chinas-invisible-war-with-india-and-the-world/
17. "The data is now clear: VC investing in emerging markets is no longer a fringe activity practiced only by ‘true believer’ investors willing to withstand decades of losses before exits occur. The exits are now here and valuations are surging. Smaller hubs in Europe, Central Asia and the Caucasus are now catching up quickly with those in the U.S. on a variety of key metrics."
https://www.catapultvc.com/2022-is-the-year-emerging-markets-vc-comes-of-age-heres-why/
18. "First of all, China (and Russia) started Cold War 2. China’s own industrial policy, including attempts to dominate the semiconductor industry and other industries, long predates the U.S.’ milder versions. Chinese technological espionage, coordinated and assisted by the central government and the intelligence services, has been ongoing for over a decade.
China’s increasing threats to conquer Taiwan and to seize pieces of the territories of India, Japan, the Philippines, and Vietnam are what prompted the U.S. to step up efforts to help those countries defend themselves. Russia invaded Ukraine with either tacit or clandestine Chinese approval. Economically and militarily, China and Russia have chosen escalation and aggression on a number of fronts.
They didn’t have to do this. They could have chosen to live with the economic relationships and territorial status quo of the 2000s, in which both countries were growing at a rapid clip and Europe and Asia were almost entirely free of armed conflict. But instead, they chose to make a bid to disrupt the existing order on all fronts.
So now the U.S. and its allies are confronted with the choice of whether to accept Chinese/Russian revision of the international order or to resist it."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-the-us-should-fight-cold-war
19. "China’s often harshly enforced claim to sovereignty over most of the South China Sea has alienated neighbours, provoking numerous confrontations over freedom of navigation, disputed islands and energy resources.
Beijing’s unceasing intimidation of Taiwan, huge military buildup, unhelpful response to the pandemic and backing for Russia’s war in Ukraine fit a broader pattern of off-putting arrogance and domineering behaviour."
20. "The hostile & — especially in Startup & Venture capital world — globally known and feared bureaucratic environment is getting improved by the current administration in Germany. And while lots of details are still yet to be defined, it is a win that there is finally some movement.
It gives hope that there is new thinking that in a rapidly evolving world and with the acceptance of the fact that technology is the fundamental driver of growth in an industrialized world, we can not give the most important resource — talent — only into the hands of incumbents and slowly moving behemoths as BMW and co. but we have to enable world-class educated individuals to translate their knowledge & passion into the future via ventures and innovation in Germany — no matter their place of birth.
Top Talent is hypermobile and Germany needs smart, ambitious people more than they need Germany and yet they want to start here, so we should do our very best to not only educate but to support, enable and reduce barriers as long as we are still high up on their preference stack rank."
https://medium.com/@philipp.herkelmann/entrepreneurial-potential-in-germany-2e8f6e96efab
21. Fan of Randall Park, representing Asian-American actors.
"His career has been defined by a kind of chummy adaptability, whether he plays a dictator (he made Kim Jong Un seem like a fun hang in “The Interview,” from 2014) or raps, as he did as a slacker in the 2019 romantic comedy “Always Be My Maybe,” or adopts an immigrant’s accent, as in his breakthrough role, on the ABC sitcom “Fresh Off the Boat,” adapted from the chef Eddie Huang’s memoir.
The series débuted in 2015 and was the first network show in nearly two decades to feature a predominantly Asian cast. For six seasons, Park played Louis Huang, the series’ wholesome, occasionally overwhelmed father. His onscreen presence makes him seem approachable, if people notice him at all. “One of the great advantages of being Asian, and borderline well known, is that people tend to think you look like just another Asian,” he told me."
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/02/27/randall-park-profile-shortcomings
22. Justin Waller is a smart man. Living a big life and I really learn alot from him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fv1bFSTRDyU
23. "Stop focusing on how to get back to your prior valuations. Accepting down rounds needs to be normalized because a lot of companies are going to just quietly go out of business over the next year. At least with a down round you have a chance to keep fighting.
I didn’t talk about “dirty” term sheets in this post…but TLDR…keep it clean and don’t do stupid things so it appears like you didn’t take a down round.
Investors want high-growth AND efficiency so build a plan based on reality. High spending often comes from seeing success rather than causing success.
Lastly, don’t lie to yourself when building a financial plan. Sure, if you slightly tweak a few assumptions then your company might IPO in 5 years….But when reality hits a lot differently and you have a lot more costs without the associated revenue then it might be too late to change course.
You have 99+ problems running a company, don’t let your pride of not wanting a down round be something that kills your company."
https://www.onlycfo.io/p/down-rounds-wont-kill-you
24. I can attest to this.
"Bad Asian? No, I prefer to be called a Badass Asian because I’m defining myself on my own terms. And that’s a freedom worth protecting and fighting for whether or not you disappoint anyone else."
https://medium.com/stopasianhate/the-joy-of-being-a-bad-asian-241609fe6e69
25. Good discussion on how to look at talent: energy, humor and optimism versus pessimism. Asking good & easy going questions. This is really valuable & thought provoking.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uy8LH2WK94M
26. This is a sad ending to the Yellowstone saga. Ego is the enemy as always.
"For that matter, what of the Yellowstone mythos itself? Yellowstone seemed to be, and arguably was, a show born of Sheridan’s fierce Texan independence, unbeholden to the messy games of America’s elite coasts. But this infighting has all the trappings of classic Hollywood idols fighting over petty Hollywood status symbols. Would the mighty house that Sheridan built be able to stand on prima donna legs?"
27. There is a lot here. He describes well the self-inflicted economic poly-crisis that the USA and the west is facing. Eye-opening.
I hate that he points to a challenging time for the US dollar but he may be right. Makes sense to prep for this. Recommend watching this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVSHIAAeZxI
28. This looks amazing. I'll be there November 3rd. Dune Part 2.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Way9Dexny3w
29. "Now what does that mean? Well, it doesn’t mean VCs have no money to invest … today. They are indeed still sitting on funds they raised last year and the year before at record levels, per the chart above.
But it does mean almost every VC fund is going to be even more cautious. The issue isn’t just exit multiples, or growth rates. It’s also now that they are having a much tougher time raising funds themselves to give to startups.
If that doesn’t last more than a quarter or two, startups won’t really notice. But if this trend continues (and there’s no reason right now to believe otherwise) … it likely will make million+ checks even harder to get in the coming quarters. When VCs aren’t sure they’re going to have nearly as much money to invest themselves going forward."
https://www.saastr.com/fundraising-by-vc-firms-themselves-is-at-a-10-year-low-what-that-means/
30. Wide ranging conversation on technology and human evolution. We will become a widely varying and divergent human species.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5VA1jc_X8U&t=9s
31. De-dollarization seems to be a longer term trend. Inevitable result of weaponization of the US dollar. Part of a larger deglobalization trend.
"But in the last year, a drive to insulate China’s economy from dollar-based sanctions has emerged as possibly the most important incentive for decoupling from the dollar, as China looks to prepare for the possibility of conflict with Taiwan."
32. Praying for success for the Ukrainian counter offensive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MThrhf-YXjU&list=RDCMUCsy9I56PY3IngCf_VGjunMQ&start_radio=1
33. This absolutely makes sense and these are the guys to do it. The Mint from BTV: A Fintech-focused accelerator.
34. "Police departments around the U.S. are donating tactical gear to Ukraine, whose annual defense budget is smaller than the NYPD’s."
https://www.vice.com/en/article/dypkjx/us-police-donates-tactical-gear-ukraine
35. "Star athletes are aiming to set up what many would call a “family office” type environment.
They want to have their own:
-Agency
-Venture fund
-Advisory board
-Charitable foundation
-Media/Production arm
Only a few have been able to successfully do this so far…
But it’s extremely powerful and will create generational wealth for those that have the ability to pull it off."
https://www.petcashpost.com/p/the-athlete-family-office-and-its
Trapped Between Ego & the Environment: The Challenges of Personal Change Management
It’s surprising where and when you stumble on deep insights on life and the world. I found myself in Romania last year during a short weekend break between Saudi Arabia and Uzbekistan.
I started reading a sci-fi action book called “Harrowmaster” that takes place during the grim dark futuristic world of Warhammer 40k where there is nothing but war. A story about one of the renegade space marine legions fallen to betray humanity. Yet they are clever, practical and interesting characters locked in a 10,000 year “long war” with the Imperium of man. They are immensely adaptable, which is what makes them so effective.
There is a great quote from the book by the main character Solomon Akurra:
“Ego was rigid and rigid tools tend to break under pressure.”
Ego is identity. Ego drives you to accomplish things. Knowing who you are is important. Yet circumstances change. Adapting is winning. I know all this but as some that astrology calls a “fixed sign”, this is a challenge for me personally. I find I only change when I meet maximum pain or cannot hide from reality any longer.
Solomon goes on to say:
“We always seek to influence outcomes to our advantage. However some outcomes cannot be meaningfully changed without changing ourselves. Sometimes that is necessary and desirable….and sometimes, doing so would render any victory won by such methods essentially meaningless.”
The question then is how far do you adapt? What traits and values do you keep and which ones do you drop?
This is why it’s really important to know yourself and know what your deepest values are. It requires deep and sometimes uncomfortable introspection. It’s also important that you keep both accomplished AND “good” people around you. They act as touchstones to help guide your way.
Basically, be so ruthlessly adaptable to win but know yourself and your values deeply so that you don’t lose your way.
Select Yourself: Truth from Darwinism & “Billions”
I think there is always something to learn from “Billions”, the archetypal show about Wall Street hedge funds and competition. Yes, it’s dramatized but there are kernels of truth to be found throughout. There is an episode in season 5 where the main character and hedge fund king, Axe goes to bail out his son who crashed the power grid of the private school he was attending. In a speech to the entire school to exonerate him, he goes on a tirade:
“I’m here to give you a little bit about what the school has been holding back from you. The goddamn truth about Darwin, scarcity, and the world you actually live in. It’s not the warm swaddled place your headmaster and parents have told you about. It’s populated by people like me, who will tear you apart.
Nature didn’t select me. I selected myself by harnessing my nature.”
He is being asked to go against his DNA, which is telling each of you to be greedy. Yes, be hungry, subjugate and conquer, because that’s who we are.”
You can watch it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWjIL_Thmuk&t=10s
Pretty wild stuff & reminds me of the Wall Street movie Gordon Gekko “Greed is Good” speech. But as I said earlier, there are some deep truths here because there are literally people who do think and act like this. I admit I’m probably one of them. I was harshly schooled in Silicon Valley for over 23+ years, and it is not the sedate place that people try to portray. And that is why it’s a vicious world out there, filled with viciously, competitive people.
I’ve stopped hiding from reality. Reality does bite. It’s good to be idealistic, and it’s always good to treat people fairly and honestly. I always try to find the Win-win. But if the other side does not work the same way, I quickly disengage and avoid them.
But when you are stuck with these vicious people, don’t turn the other cheek, you must fight back. And you fight back hard. If they keep on coming at me or my interests, I will do everything I can to wreck them. You have to be a relentless enemy. This is the only way to operate in this kind of world. In Game theory it’s called the “Tit for Tat” strategy, you start off by trying to cooperate and treat your opponent fairly. If they betray you, you retaliate and hit them back. And it works as shown in most scenarios.
So go out in the world and keep your eyes open. But most importantly know the environment you are competing in, harness your nature and do the hard work to select yourself.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads May 7th, 2023
"We are here to add what we can to life, not to get what we can from life."--William Osler
Tokyo is back and I'm massively bullish (although biased because I love Japan).
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2023/04/26/commentary/japan-commentary/tokyo-financial-hub/
2. I'm a fan of Justin Waller. The Blue Collar Baller.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcu3HXCrcF0
3. "Venture capital firms are complex webs of cultural politics, power struggles, and short-term measurements of long-term activities. In some ways, VCs can be the dumbest people you'll talk to. Not because they're normal dumb, but because they move so fast, and do so much while operating on so little information that their decision making paradigms can defy most forms of logic.
They say you can only make a first impression once, but with VCs that first impression can sometimes last a lifetime.
Now, take that strange fast-moving poorly-informed decision making paradigm, and then stick a dozen or so of them in a room. That's a venture capital firm."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/eat-what-you-kill
4. This seems crazy. Crazy like a fox?
This is a fast growing company but the valuation seems high but this is a lottery ticket.
https://techcrunch.com/2023/04/28/openai-funding-valuation-chatgpt/
5. Strong case for America's continual pre-eminence. Geography, Population and resources.
https://twitter.com/girdley/status/1652285351107641344
6. This is a sad story. Naive people. Sadly, evil does exist in this world.
"In 2017, two Americans set off on a round-the-world bike trip. They believed people all over the world are inherently good at heart. They never made it home."
https://www.outsideonline.com/2405861/tajikistan-bike-murders-jay-austin-lauren-geoghegan/
7. "The microstate (comprising just 208 hectares) is a world-famous example of how very small jurisdictions can grow faster, get richer, and be more successful overall than bigger countries. They often also score higher on aspects such as crime, unemployment, and public services.
Places like Singapore and Liechtenstein are other famous examples, but not the only ones.
Nowadays, the swathe of successful microstates that are dotted around the globe gets complemented by efforts to establish private cities with quasi-sovereign rights and even new countries. For some of these projects, fundraising among real estate investors and venture capitalists is carried out right now.
Is this going to form a new investment theme or asset class? How could this look like, and what might be its biggest attraction to investors?"
8. Kotkin is one of my favorite historians. He has a great perspective on Russia and geopolitics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTXEmz6nJGk
9. The CCP threat is real.
"Another provision makes it easier for the military to draft people in case of an emergency. This allows the government to adjust the conditions and method of conscription, depending on the types of personnel required, and enables the supply transportation corps to prioritize the transport of military forces for swift deployments.
The changes reflect Beijing's concerns about a possible conflict over Taiwan. A total land, sea and air war could require China to mobilize retired military personnel, as well as active-duty soldiers. Among others, experienced crew who can operate weapons and sonars on warships and fighter pilots are particularly valuable, as training new, highly skilled people takes time.
The revised law aims to bring in science and engineering students trained in high tech, such as artificial intelligence and robotics. Warfare using space satellites, cyber and drones are particular areas of concern. The Chinese military is also focusing on research into "intelligence warfare" that makes use of AI and other technology."
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/China-revises-conscription-law-eyeing-Taiwan-conflict
10. Learning about programming yourself. Luke Belmar is dropping knowledge bombs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcXWgCxjcGM
11. One of the most strategic places in the world right now. Bashi straits between Taiwan and the Philippines.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRK2NuzVtH8
12. US allies in Asia are critical if China attacks Taiwan. Reality though is Japan and Australia are the only ones the USA can count on.
https://www.axios.com/2023/05/02/taiwan-war-us-philippines-japan-korea-australia
13. "Technology has already made the world pretty efficient. The idea that you’re going to get a giant internet or mobile-sized economic opportunity across the board by going better, faster, cheaper on human-based models seems a little tough to swallow—especially when you take into consideration the hype cycle, which is greater now than it’s ever been.
Other than the very first checks, no one paid a remotely reasonable risk-adjusted price for shares of OpenAI unless it winds up being a FAANG sized outcome—and the same is true for a lot of AI companies these days.
Don’t get me wrong, there will definitely be great outcomes for companies that integrate AI into their offerings, and we might be watching today’s sitcoms 30 years from now marveling at how all this took place before AI changed everything, but I’m not quite sure the dollars are going to be there from the venture return side."
https://ceonyc.substack.com/p/why-ai-wont-be-the-investment-opportunity
14. "But I am a realist. And personally, I think the US has a 10% chance of defaulting in months, 70% chance in years, a 19% chance in decades, and a 1% chance of making it to centuries, whether that default be explicit (via something like the debt ceiling) or more likely implicit (via money printing).
I don’t think default is the “end of the world” (not even the world wars were!) but I do think it’s going to be a disruptive period that merits careful preparation, as opposed to either passivity or panic.
Nevertheless, I’m still optimistic on individual Americans, on America at at the state and local level, and on technological progress globally."
15. Hackers for good. More of this please.
16. "However well or poorly China’s military might perform, the geostrategic implications would not constitute a big win for anyone.
In the unlikely event that China’s military performs spectacularly well and swiftly achieves operational success, this victory would stun the region and prompt a major geopolitical realignment, but not necessarily in ways that would all favor Beijing. If the People’s Liberation Army were to stumble seriously or fail spectacularly in a military operation against Taiwan, Xi would be unlikely to throw in the towel.
A major setback would almost certainly generate a protracted war in the center of the Indo-Pacific that would seriously disrupt regional shipping lanes, commercial air travel, and supply chains. As a result, prolonged conflict over Taiwan would be far more disruptive than the ongoing war in Ukraine, both regionally and globally."
https://warontherocks.com/2023/05/xi-jinpings-worst-nightmare-a-potemkin-peoples-liberation-army/
17. "Integrating computing design principles into the military acquisitions process might sound like a reversion — after all, the Pentagon was instrumental in Silicon Valley’s founding, not vice versa — but computing’s pervasiveness demands an immediate strategy adjustment.
Our willingness to adapt matters. What today is considered asymmetric — drones over dreadnoughts — will become the norm. In fact, it’s a dynamic that plays out frequently in the tech industry when startups with new technology and fewer institutional constraints out execute deep-pocketed incumbents. We need to recalibrate our military procurement and design processes to account for that reality.
Rewiring the Pentagon as an ambidextrous organization capable of rapidly fielding innovative tech and still delivering on established programs can help us get there."
https://a16z.com/2023/04/28/how-the-u-s-can-rewire-the-pentagon-for-a-new-era/
18. This is a good discussion on AI & the growth of dual threat CEOs: founders who are good running startups and investing on the side.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5CXqp5nnLM
19. "Biden’s people believe that the same set of policies that will build up American strength vis-a-vis China will also work against domestic inequality and help restore the American middle class. That doesn’t mean they see China as the root of America’s economic ills, as Trump did — instead, it means they think they can kill two birds with one stone. Three birds, if you count climate change.
What are the chances that the same policies that would strengthen the U.S. in the international arena would also boost the middle class at home? In fact, I do think there’s a good precedent for this: World War 2. The massive military manufacturing boom unleashed to fight that war, as well as the advent of science and technology policy, ended up boosting the power of labor, accelerating growth, and creating the preconditions for a robust middle class in the postwar years. It was a double win, and it’s one the Biden administration would like to repeat.
So those are the first two main points to understand about the new industrial policy:
It’s intended to strengthen the U.S.’ hand against China, and
It’s an attempt to at least partially reverse the rise in inequality that happened in the 80s, 90s, and 00s.
Already, there are worries that tensions might emerge between these two objectives — and the objective of stopping climate change."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-new-industrial-policy-explained
20. Elad is one of the best operators and investors in Silicon Valley. So much to learn here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7mW8r0iwGzM
21. "The assignment was simple: write a profile of Sadhguru, the yogi, New York Times bestselling author, and spiritual adviser to Hollywood celebrities and the ultra-rich. At 65 years old, the Indian holy man has become an unlikely influencer on TikTok and Instagram, where more than nine million of his disciples avidly soak up the guru’s advice on how to attain enlightenment – or, at least, a little calm – in our increasingly fucked-up modern world."
https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/lifestyle/article/inside-the-temple-of-sadhguru
22. Long overdue actions here. We are so behind here.
“Whatever we do to deter the war has to happen before the war,” Gallagher told Defense News. “We need to jump-start industry now if we want to actually stockpile munitions that give us a chance of preserving the peace, which means in my opinion that you need multiyear appropriations for critical munitions like the long-range anti-ship missile.”
“We need about 1,000 to 1,200 [long-range anti-ship missiles] if you believe the unclassified wargames,” he added. “Our inventory is less than 250, and we’re just not producing them at a rapid rate. I believe we can get up to above 200 a year.”
23. "I focus on the US because it has taken security and defense seriously when Europe has not. The US is the only party with the actual capability to profoundly change the military balance on the battlefield. Additionally, the US is leading the “pack” of willing (and not so willing) Western countries.
Europe has failed to invest in security and defence, making itself fully dependent on the US. It has no strategic autonomy within security and defence and is, consequentially, unable to provide the military support needed for Ukraine to defeat Russia."
"I am, however, rather convinced that the deliberations – or strategic thinking – will be influenced by a mix of flawed institutional thinking, ignorance of both Russia and Ukraine, Russian disinformation, and Russian-induced fear, as well as concerns over public support and strategic considerations beyond Ukraine.
This is also the main reason why the West is reluctant to set up Ukraine for victory. A series of institutionalized flaws and a lack of strategic thinking."
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/04/29/why-is-the-west-reluctant-to-equip-ukraine-to-win-the-war/
24. "Burgis distinguishes between two types of desire: thin and thick. Thin desires are ephemeral and easily influenced by external factors, while thick desires are rooted in our core beliefs and values. In order to take control of our desires and avoid being pushed and pulled in directions that aren’t true to ourselves, we must identify the difference between the two."
https://bigthink.com/the-well/mimetic-desire-want/
25. This is eye opening and scary. But it's really worth watching. Learning from a spy and the importance of geopolitics in the USA. We need to wake up!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14eG8uoQ6cQ&t=1617s
26. "We Have No Moat
And neither does OpenAI
We’ve done a lot of looking over our shoulders at OpenAI. Who will cross the next milestone? What will the next move be?
But the uncomfortable truth is, we aren’t positioned to win this arms race and neither is OpenAI. While we’ve been squabbling, a third faction has been quietly eating our lunch.
I’m talking, of course, about open source. Plainly put, they are lapping us. Things we consider “major open problems” are solved and in people’s hands today."
https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-we-have-no-moat-and-neither
27. Interesting discussion on Signal Intelligence.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjeGLc9kmeg&list=RDCMUCsy9I56PY3IngCf_VGjunMQ&start_radio=1
28. Never count out Sequoia Capital.
"Tellingly, even in the face of Twitter’s stumbles, FTX’s failure, public equities in freefall and looming doubts regarding ByteDance, Sequoia isn’t facing an exodus of LPs or anything resembling an internal revolt. This, perhaps, is why Sequoia tapped a partner like Botha to lead the firm in the first place. The institution has built a reputation over the last half-century for being both far-looking and indefatigable; its leader must be made of the same stuff.
“He’s the right steward for the moment,” said Antonio Gracias, founder of Valor Equity Partners and a fellow investor in Musk’s Twitter. “This is the time when you want someone who can separate emotion from logic and fact.”
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/sequoia-capitals-mighty-struggle
29. "The arc of evolution bends toward good storytellers. Communities with larger proportions of skilled storytellers experience greater levels of cooperation, and … procreation. Their evolutionary fitness is buttressed, as storytelling translates to more efficient transmission of survival-relevant information.
Storytellers themselves are more likely to receive acts of service from their peers — and among men, being skilled in storytelling increases attractiveness and perceived status to potential long-term mates. My dad used to tell me that men get turned on with their eyes, women with their ears. It turns out his theory is backed by science."
https://www.profgalloway.com/storytelling/
30. Worth listening to if you are a SaaS founder.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyo1rF4iEZ4
31. This is a fascinating view on history and geopolitics.
https://twitter.com/Valen10Francois/status/1652630776976924673
32. China dominating the auto manufacturing industry is dangerous for the west. This is a dual use capability & easily converted to military use.
https://twitter.com/_MadeInThe_USA/status/1652804222050549768
The Price of Rebellion and Supporting a BIG Cause: There is Always a Major Price to Pay
I think the Andor tv series is one of the most underrated Star Wars series i’ve watched. One of the most striking speeches I’ve read was by character Luthen Rael who helped start the rebellion against the Empire.
“Calm. Kindness, kinship. Love. I’ve given up all chance at inner peace, I’ve made my mind a sunless space. I share my dreams with ghosts. I wake up every day to an equation I wrote 15 years ago from which there’s only one conclusion: I’m damned for what I do.
My anger, my ego, my unwillingness to yield, my eagerness to fight, they’ve set me on a path from which there is no escape. I yearned to be a savior against injustice without contemplating the cost, and by the time I looked down, there was no longer any ground beneath my feet.
What is... what is my sacrifice? I’m condemned to use the tools of my enemy to defeat them. I burn my decency for someone else’s future. I burn my life, to make a sunrise that I know I’ll never see. No, the ego that started this fight will never have a mirror, or an audience, or the light of gratitude. So what do I sacrifice?
Everything.”
You can watch it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3RCme2zZRY
It’s chilling. It’s heroic and tragic at the same time. And while most of us aren’t starting rebellions against a dictatorial empire (yet), this comment is still highly relevant to the startup & entrepreneurial world. Or really any major movement. It absolutely rings true.
Doing great things requires great sacrifices. There is no free lunch. There is no dabbling. Great things also require deep commitment. Commitment of your body and your soul. You have to “want it” more than the other guy. You have to do tremendous amounts of work. You have to push yourself to your limits. This is the cost of great achievement in human life.
It means taking Risk in business and investing parlance. No Risk, No Gain.
And yet many people are still looking for the free lunch or the easy way. And sadly, that is why most people are NGMI (Not Going to Make It).